The G10 rundown
USD – the ISM Non-manufacturing survey for October managed to sustain the 60 level for a second month in a row, something it has never done in the more than 20 years of the survey’s history.
EUR – Italian BTP spreads to the core remain dormant to tighter, helping keep the euro supported as we look at the limbo of the 1.1300 (double bottom?) and 1.1500 range. The close at the end of this eventful week may provide a clue for next direction.
JPY – as noted above, the yen weaker even versus an unimpressive USD, and ready to weaken further if the US and China show signs of avoiding all out trade hostilities for now and bond yields and risk appetite surge again in coming weeks.
GBP – sterling continues to find support as an important level nears: 0.8700 in EURGBP – the pair has only seen one weekly close below that level since May of last year. A good rundown of the status of Brexit from the BBC came out
yesterday for investors looking to gauge the state of negotiations.
CHF – EURCHF wants to rally, but we likely need to put the Italian budget issue behind us for this year before we can have a look significantly above 1.1500.
AUD – the Aussie staying buoyant, likely on hopes for a thaw in the US-China trade hostilities, but we have longer-term concerns, even if there is room for a further significant squeeze on AUD shorts in the near term.
CAD – market indifferent on CAD, where the enthusiasm has been curtailed by weak oil prices and the rate outlook relative to the US has varied insignificantly for the last three months.
NZD – little reason for a kiwi focus recently, given lack of direction in AUDNZD, but we have Q3 employment data up tonight and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand up early Thursday (late Wednesday at 20:00 GMT for us in Europe).
SEK – surprised we haven’t seen EURSEK more willing to challenge the sub-10.30 range lows here, not sure what catalyst the market is waiting for to take the pair lower.
NOK – less surprising to see lower enthusiasm for NOK, given the huge slide in crude oil prices as the US has announced stunning production gains and waivers on Iranian crude importers as sanctions go into effect this week. Norway CPI data up on Friday. Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT)
• 08:15-0:900 – Eurozone Oct. Final Services PMI
• 08:30 – Sweden Sep. Industrial Orders
• 09:15 – Norway Norges Bank’s Olsen to Speak
• 10:00 – Eurozone Sep. PPI
• 13:30 – Canada Sep. Building Permits
• 21:45 – New Zealand Q3 Employment Change / Wages