Technical Update - ASX 200 trend exhaustion and reversal or continued uptrend?
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
ASX 200 seems to be forming a rising wedge like pattern. If ASX closes below support at 6,961 we are likely to see a down wards move to around 6,800 i.e. around the 55 SMA and the 0.50 Fibonacci retracement area. However, there could be down side potential to the 0.764 retracement at 6,579 and the strong support at 6,540. With divergence on RSI this scenario is likely to play out
However, the trend is still up and remains so until the Index closes below 6,961 and will be extended if it closes above 7,138. There is resistance around that level however, with the 200 SMA coming down but an exhaustive spike up to strong resistance around 7,286 should not be ruled out.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook Q3 2022: The Runaway Train
- Winter is coming to the financial markets as central banks are tightening their grip. How spring will look is still a question.
European energy crisis: it will get worse before it gets betterThe winter in Europe will be tough, but whether the result is political chaos or sustainable, innovative solutions is still undecided.
A difficult and volatile quarter awaitsAs the year draws to an end, commodities continue to be at centre stage of the world with growth pockets political uncertainty.
The bright side: crises drive innovationThe positive spin on crises is that they come with solutions. It is worrisome that deglobalisation may be a response to this crisis.
Green transformation in China: renewable energy and beyondGoing green, China needs to span numerous energy sources to ensure stability, as every source comes with a challenge.
Asia: Intermittent solutions, but a faster renewable adoption curveAsian energy supply is being squeezed. This and the adoption of renewables may change the investment sentiment in the region.
FX: A Fed thaw needed to deliver a sustained USD turn lowerThe US Dollar can keep momentum when the Federal Reserve continues to tighten, leaving the rest to play to their drum.
Autumn can become ugly for equities and bond holders. Comfort for Dollar longsTechnical analysis suggests that equities could face a tough Q4 as could fixed income. US Dollar positions could provide some upside.
The next stock market sector to watch, with stocks going nuclearAs the world scrambles to find affordable, sustainable energy, nuclear is getting attention from politicians and investors alike.
The crypto space is getting cold when the hype disappearsCryptocurrencies face a winter of their own as retail investors and governments are asking tough questions.