Saxo News & Research - Articles

Amazon earnings: why strong growth was not enough

Fri, 30 Oct 2026 12:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Cloud growth accelerates: Amazon Web Services is booming, but high expectations make even strong results insufficient.
Spending raises questions: AI investments are consuming cash, leaving investors waiting for clearer financial returns.
Retail sends mixed signals: slower online sales and advertising growth add uncertainty, despite improving profitability.

Amazon has spent years building a business that delivers almost everything. Now investors are asking when its enormous investments will start delivering more cash.

On 29 October 2026, the company reported strong third-quarter cloud growth and record operating margins. Yet its shares fell around 7% in after-hours trading as spending exceeded expectations and its core retail business slowed.

The message was clear: growing quickly is no longer enough when the bill for future growth keeps getting bigger.

The cloud is growing, but so is the bill

Amazon Web Services (AWS), which rents computing power and data storage to businesses, remains Amazon's biggest profit engine.

Revenue jumped 39%, its fastest growth in nearly five years. Demand for artificial intelligence is a major driver, with customers including Anthropic and OpenAI requiring enormous computing capacity.

Yet investors were not celebrating.

Amazon expects to spend around 220 billion USD on infrastructure and equipment this year, with spending rising further in 2027.

That creates an important distinction between profits and cash.

Amazon's operating profits are improving, but free cash flow, the money left after running and investing in the business, has turned negative. Over the past year, Amazon spent roughly 42 billion USD more than it generated after investment costs.

This does not necessarily signal a weak business. New data centres can generate revenue for years. But their construction requires substantial cash today, while future returns remain uncertain.

For investors, the question is shifting from how fast AI grows to how profitably it grows.

Retail offers a second reality check

Amazon is more than a cloud provider. Its enormous online marketplace remains central to the business.

Online store sales increased just 2%, while advertising growth also slowed. Amazon partly attributes the weakness to moving its Prime Day shopping event into the previous quarter.

That makes comparisons less straightforward, but does not eliminate concerns about consumer spending.

There is encouraging news beneath the surface. Faster deliveries, greater efficiency and improving retail margins suggest Amazon continues to benefit from its enormous scale.

This matters because profitable retail operations help support investment elsewhere.

The broader industry faces a similar challenge. Microsoft and Alphabet are expanding cloud infrastructure, while chipmakers, memory suppliers and electricity providers benefit from the construction boom.

But higher spending by technology giants does not automatically mean higher returns for their shareholders. Suppliers receive orders today. Infrastructure owners must earn back their investments over time.

Risks: when growth becomes expensive

Three risks deserve attention.

First, AI demand could disappoint relative to the capacity being built. Second, rising equipment and energy costs could squeeze profitability. Third, weaker consumer spending could reduce the financial flexibility provided by retail.

The warning signs are slowing cloud growth, persistently negative free cash flow and weaker retail margins.

For investors, the useful exercise is tracking whether cloud profits and cash generation eventually catch up with investment spending, rather than reacting to one quarter's share-price movement.

The real test is still ahead

Amazon's results capture a wider shift in the technology industry. For years, investors rewarded companies for expanding quickly and capturing new markets. Today, they increasingly want evidence that expansion creates lasting financial value.

Amazon has reasons for confidence. Its cloud business is accelerating, retail profitability is improving, and demand for computing infrastructure remains strong. But the scale of its investments leaves less room for disappointment.

The coming quarters will reveal whether today's spending translates into stronger earnings and, eventually, healthier cash flow.

Amazon has become exceptionally good at delivering packages to customers. Its next challenge is proving it can deliver equally impressive returns on the capital it invests.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Artificial Intelligence Theme - Artificial intelligence Quarterly earnings

Microsoft and Alphabet earnings: same AI boom, two very different verdicts

Thu, 29 Oct 2026 10:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Microsoft’s strong cloud growth and cash generation gave investors greater confidence in its AI spending.
Alphabet’s cloud business surged, but weaker advertising momentum raised tougher questions about its core business.
For investors, the test is shifting from building AI capacity to earning a return on it.

Artificial intelligence can answer almost anything. But investors have one harder question: will it pay for itself?

On 28 October 2026, Microsoft and Alphabet, Google's parent company, reported results that offered two very different answers. Both reported strong AI demand. Yet Microsoft shares rose after hours while Alphabet fell sharply. Investors were judging who could pay the bill.

Microsoft: the spending has a customer

Microsoft sells software to businesses and rents out computing power through Azure, its cloud platform. Azure sales grew 48%, beating expectations, as companies kept paying for AI computing.

More importantly, Microsoft generated 18.6 billion USD in free cash flow, the money left after running the business and investing in equipment. Its costly data centres are supporting sales without consuming all its cash.

There is a catch. Microsoft's spending came in below forecasts partly because some computing capacity arrived late. Its investment bill is still growing. The market rewarded progress, not a risk-free spending plan.

Alphabet: more searches, less money per answer

Alphabet makes most of its money from Google advertising, alongside cloud services. Its Google Cloud revenue more than doubled, showing strong demand for its AI infrastructure.

The trouble sits closer to home. Search advertising grew, but less than analysts expected, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Google says users are making more searches, yet its newer AI Mode currently earns less advertising revenue per search.

Google needs better AI answers to keep users, but they currently earn less than traditional search pages. Meanwhile, heavy investment left Alphabet with negative free cash flow of 9.1 billion USD, its second consecutive quarter below zero.

Search remains a huge business. The question is whether higher AI usage will translate into more cash.

The wider lesson: follow the money

Both companies also earn money serving potential rivals. Microsoft's relationship with OpenAI and Google's cloud business with Anthropic show how they can benefit without winning every chatbot contest.

That demand supports chipmakers, data-centre builders and electricity suppliers. But much depends on a few enormous customers continuing to finance expansion.

Risks worth watching

For Alphabet, the key signs are whether AI searches generate more advertising revenue and whether cash generation recovers. For Microsoft, watch whether cloud growth stays strong as delayed investments arrive. Both face rising costs and dependence on large AI customers.

The answer is in the cash

These results are not a final verdict on which company will lead artificial intelligence. Microsoft has a clearer near-term link between AI demand, revenue and cash generation. Alphabet has a harder balancing act, defending the advertising model that made Google successful while rebuilding it for a different way of searching.

For investors, that distinction matters more than one evening's share-price reaction. A growing market does not guarantee that every participant will earn attractive returns. What counts is whether customers keep paying, whether costs remain manageable and whether the business can fund its ambitions. AI can produce remarkable answers. The companies that matter most to investors will also need to produce cash.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Artificial Intelligence Theme - Artificial intelligence Quarterly earnings

The FX Trader: FOMC a modest dovish surprise. ECB and BoJ on tap.

Thu, 29 Oct 2026 08:10:00 Z

Most of the USD reaction to FOMC already erased.

FOMC – a modest dovish surprise
The US dollar weakened slightly and the US Treasury yield curve steepened late Wednesday in the wake of the FOMC statement release and Warsh press conference, with the latter making the bigger impression. The statement was largely the same and there were two hawkish dissenters in favour of a hike. Of the changes to the statement, one was a slightly hawkish upgrade as economic was now described as expanding at a "strong" rather than a merely "solid" pace. Another change left room for interpretation: the change of the September justification for tightening was replaced with a data-dependent "The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely" (rather than timelier) return to the 2% target. Probably just revised to explain why they are waiting and not hiking at this meeting? Unknown.

In the presser, there were a few nuances that the market took as dovish. Chair Warsh pushed back against characterising the US economy as overheating, saying that productivity increases could allow faster growth without accompanying inflation. This looks like a strong "out" for not responding to higher inflation levels. He also said that the September rate hike was already working and beginning to restrain credit conditions and wanted another six weeks (time frame to next meeting) to assess what to do. He also rejected the idea that the Fed needed to engineer a growth slowdown by obstructing economic activity or causing job losses to lower inflation.

While the reaction in treasury markets (front-end coming down, long end mostly steady) largely stuck, the modest USD sell-off spent most of early Thursday hours reversing, even if the JPY comeback was trying to hold on. For the US dollar this was a largely a non-event, in short - direction of global risk sentiment and oil prices may carry more sway for now in UDS direction.

ECB today
The ECB has perhaps more potential to surprise today given the pricing of the December rate hike (still high odds, but will the ECB indicate declining resolve to continue tightening policy?). Further tightening is not priced in until March or later of next year. I suspect a solidly high risk that the ECB removes forward guidance for any further tightening, at least upgrading the uncertainty level, which could knock the Euro a bit lower. How much will the ECB admit that the elephant in the room is the recent instability in French sovereign bonds? Awkward, with a French ECB President presiding. Still, the euro has suffered quite a bit in the crosses already, so a dovish shift is partially priced in (note the trend readings in the FX Board below.)

BoJ incoming as well
The retreat in short-date US treasury yields post-FOMC helped punch the USDJPY and other JPY crosses back lower. USDJPY squeezed as high as 158.35 Wednesday before retreating back below 158.00 ahead of tomorrow's Bank of Japan meeting (look for the statement release around 0230-0330 GMT and Ueda presser at 0630). The highs on Wednesday came close to the critical 158.50 area that has mostly capped the price action in USDJPY (near the 200-day moving average and other technically important levels as noted in USDJPY chart below) in recent weeks as traders eye the risk of official Japanese intervention that has come on multiple occasions in recent months. With USDJPY trading near 158.00, I would expect the Bank of Japan to sound resolute on doing what it takes to ensure inflation fighting credibility, including on the currency angle risk to inflation, but how much this can jolt rate spreads higher is somewhat doubtful, given that the December BoJ is already mostly priced to deliver a hike, with more to come next year. Actual intervention may be needed from the Ministry of Finance to make the point clear, even if Ueda waxes hawkish.

Chart: USDJPY
With so many bouts of intervention in the mix in recent months, it is difficult to argue the case for technical analysis on the USDJPY chart, but either way, the 158.50 plus area remains obviously critical for the pair, as it is both near recent resistance and the obvious 200-day moving average and Ichimoku cloud levels. Note that the recent lows avoided touching the bottom of the cloud, which is now set to rise above those levels – so the first downside key is the cloud bottom on the daily closing basis, followed by the local 156.08 pivot low and then the 155.25 area (61.8% retracement level).

Source: Saxo

RBNZ dovish shocker and BoC hike
The Bank of Canada hiked yesterday as seemed inevitable after recent hawkish rhetoric from Governor Macklem, but even with the dovish FOMC yesterday, USDCAD is having a hard time separating from the magnetic round 1.4000 level. That level looks pivotal for the pair. Canadian short rates pulled toward the cycle highs as Macklem said that the estimate of the neutral rate may have to rise, among other comments. The RBNZ surprised early Wednesday with a dovish shocker in not hiking again as the market expected, though it positioned the move as a delay rather than a direction change and the vote was a close 4-3. Still, the bank upgraded short-term inflation forecasts at the same time, while saying it paused as an expression of concern on the outlook for global growth and that inflation was mostly being driven by imported energy costs. The NZD was punched steeply lower, especially in AUDNZD as Australia was out with strong inflation numbers around the same time frame, but RBNZ Governor Breman has already been out with a bit of pushback on the market's takeway, saying that the odds of a December hike are high. AUDNZD set a new 13-year high near 1.2600.

Autumn Budget statement yawn for sterling
There was little drama in sterling pairs Wednesday on the Autumn Budget announcement from UK Chancellor Healey, which observers felt was credible enough in allowing enough “fiscal headroom” to avoid fiscal stability concerns for now, although that headroom is now smaller than before. The household energy subsidy of GBP 100 to 20 million households won't break the bank, and most moves were incremental, with some modest tax increases, a temporary one on bank earnings and on savings and property income (not on wage). The really tough stuff is yet to come: the overall spending by the government's various departments which will be undergoing the biannual 2027 spending review. EURGBP remains near the 17-month cycle low, trading early 0.8366 early Thursday.

FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.
Note: If unfamiliar with the FX board, please see a video tutorial for understanding and using the FX Board.

China keeping a firm hand under its currency as the country remains mired in a balance sheet and deflationary (for housing especially) spiral. Elsewhere, the JPY rally attempt has fizzled a bit ahead of the BoJ tomorrow. In the negative column, the NZD paid a heavy price for not hiking and the Euro is extremely weak, so a bit tough to hope for a massive reaction to a dovish surprise at today’s ECB meeting when it is already beaten down so aggressively. Much of that, by the way, is versus SEK and especially NOK.

Table: NEW FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.

The AUD is trying to put on a show here, but AUDUSD, for example, is in the shadow of the prior major sell-off and has sold off sharply after punching above the 200-day moving average after the FOMC meeting – it looks sensitive to risk sentiment here. Let’s give the AUDNZD and AUDJPY another couple of days to settle as well – a bit skeptical about this AUD move, obviously. USDJPY status is uncertain as well – yes, the recent sell-off was neutralized, but we have a massive overhead resistance and a BoJ meeting to get through. Elsewhere, EURNOK is getting to be a bit much with a -12.4 trend reading (!). Imagine what happens there if we suddenly get 10-dollar drop in crude.

John J. Hardy

Global Head of Macro Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Forex Highlighted articles Trump Version 2 - Traders FR US Actualites et Analyses EURUSD USDJPY UKMustRead

AI spending refuses to slow: what SK Hynix and Broadcom reveal about the boom

Wed, 28 Oct 2026 12:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Memory remains in short supply: SK Hynix's record earnings show how AI demand continues to favour suppliers.
The money keeps flowing: Broadcom's USD 63 billion financing deal shows infrastructure expansion is far from over.
Spending is not the same as profits: investors increasingly need to distinguish beneficiaries from those financing the boom.

A volatile stock market can make artificial intelligence look like a boom losing momentum. The companies buying its infrastructure seem to disagree.

On 28 October 2026, SK Hynix reported record earnings. Two days earlier, a USD 63 billion financing package was announced to buy Broadcom chips for Anthropic. Together, they show that spending can grow even when share prices wobble. For investors, the question is who earns the profit and who carries the bill.

Memory is having its moment

South Korea's SK Hynix makes memory chips for phones, servers and AI data centres. High-bandwidth memory (HBM) feeds data quickly to powerful AI processors, including those made by Nvidia. Even the fastest processor stalls when information arrives slowly.

Third-quarter revenue climbed 328% to 104.6 trillion Korean won. Operating profit reached 83.3 trillion won, an extraordinary 80% operating margin. Agreements with 14 customers already cover more than half of planned production for 2027 and 2028.

Scarcity gives suppliers pricing power. For SK Hynix, it lifts earnings. For customers, the same shortage raises costs. And with AI infrastructure still expanding, memory is becoming just as strategically important as the processors themselves.

The money behind the machines

US chipmaker Broadcom designs specialised AI processors and networking equipment. On 26 October, Bank of America, Citi, Morgan Stanley and Blackstone announced USD 63 billion in financing to purchase Broadcom equipment for Anthropic, developer of the Claude AI assistant.

The structure matters. A separate financing vehicle will buy the hardware and lease it to Anthropic, with deliveries expected from 2027. Broadcom also provides protection to senior lenders against falling equipment values.

This is not Anthropic paying USD 63 billion upfront. It shows how financing is becoming as important as technology in sustaining the AI expansion.

The arrangement supports Broadcom's sales but also introduces financial risks. Anthropic's proposed initial public offering (IPO), filed on 26 October, will bring additional scrutiny to whether growing AI revenues can eventually justify these enormous commitments.

Risks: the bills can outlast the boom

Memory shortages will not last forever. New capacity or weaker demand could lower prices and margins. AI developers must also generate enough revenue to cover growing computing costs. And if specialised chips lose value faster than expected, supplier guarantees could prove costly.

Investor playbook

Follow pricing power: watch memory prices and long-term orders, not just impressive quarterly profit figures.
Look beyond spending: compare AI developers' revenue growth with computing commitments and cash generation.
Mind concentration: check whether portfolio holdings depend on the same AI infrastructure spending cycle.

The boom is not the return

The AI buildout does not have to stop for investors to become more selective. SK Hynix shows how shortages can translate into exceptional profits, while Broadcom shows how enormous new orders can be made possible through financing. Those are very different sources of value.

Over time, more production may ease memory shortages and lower costs for AI developers. That would help buyers but could reduce the pricing power of today's suppliers. Meanwhile, cheaper computing only creates lasting value if customers are willing to pay for the services it supports.

The question is no longer simply whether AI spending will continue. It is who will earn attractive returns once the bills come due.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Artificial Intelligence Theme - Artificial intelligence Quarterly earnings Initial Public Offering (IPO) IPO

Big Tech earnings preview: Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft face the $1 trillion AI question

Tue, 27 Oct 2026 11:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

AI spending faces a reality check: investors want evidence that record infrastructure investment can generate lasting profits.
Cloud growth holds the clues: Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft must demonstrate that AI demand translates into profitable business.
Expectations matter: strong earnings may disappoint if spending rises faster than cash generation.

The artificial intelligence race is becoming extraordinarily expensive. And this week, three of its biggest participants face a familiar question: when will the investment start paying off?

Microsoft and Alphabet report earnings on Wednesday, 28 October, followed by Amazon on Thursday, 29 October, all after US markets close.

The stakes extend well beyond three quarterly reports. According to S&P Global, major cloud and technology companies are expected to invest around 763 billion USD in infrastructure in 2026, potentially rising to 1.3 trillion USD in 2027.

These are forecasts, not committed spending. Still, they illustrate an important shift. Investors already know that AI is attracting enormous investment. Now they want to understand how much profit that investment can produce.

Three companies, three different tests

The three technology giants share an ambition to become essential providers of AI infrastructure. But their businesses, growth rates and challenges differ.

Cloud revenue growth in the latest reported quarter

Source: Bloomberg. Year-on-year growth for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. Chart generated using ASKB by BloombergAI.

Microsoft: can AI growth justify the spending?

Microsoft sells business software and operates Azure, one of the world's largest cloud platforms.

Azure revenue grew 43% in the June quarter. For the upcoming quarter, management expects growth of 44% to 45% in constant currency, meaning exchange-rate movements are excluded.

Demand appears strong, but growth comes at a cost. Microsoft expects quarterly capital expenditure, or spending on long-term assets such as data centres, to exceed 50 billion USD.

The question is whether growing Azure demand and paid adoption of tools such as Microsoft 365 Copilot can offset the rising costs of delivering AI services.

Alphabet: can cloud profits catch up with growth?

Alphabet owns Google, whose businesses include Search, YouTube and Google Cloud.

Google Cloud revenue surged 82% in the June quarter, making it the fastest-growing of the three cloud businesses. Investors will now watch whether operating profits can keep pace as the company adds expensive computing capacity.

Alphabet also faces a second challenge. AI-powered search could encourage more searches and new advertising opportunities, but it could also change how users interact with traditional advertisements.

For Alphabet, the test is therefore twofold: turn cloud growth into stronger profits while protecting the advertising business that helps finance its AI ambitions.

Amazon: where is the cash?

Amazon combines its global retail platform with Amazon Web Services (AWS), the cloud business that provides much of its operating profit.

AWS revenue grew 37% in the June quarter, its fastest expansion in several years. Yet Amazon's free cash flow, the money remaining after operating expenses and investments, was negative 7.6 billion USD over the preceding 12 months.

This does not necessarily signal a struggling business. Amazon generated substantial operating cash, but infrastructure investments absorbed even more.

For investors, the distinction matters. Growing revenue is encouraging. Growing profits are better. Eventually, those profits also need to translate into cash.

The trillion-dollar question is about returns, not revenue

AI infrastructure is expensive to build, but potentially profitable to operate once customers start using it.

The difficulty is timing. Companies spend billions on chips, buildings and electricity connections today, while the revenue they hope to generate may arrive over several years.

This creates an important distinction between earnings and cash generation.

A company can report excellent profits while spending more cash than it produces. Equally, negative free cash flow during an investment phase does not automatically indicate poor long-term returns.

For shareholders, the key is whether future profits eventually justify today's spending.

Source: Saxo Bank analysis.

Valuations add another layer. When share prices already reflect ambitious growth expectations, companies have less room for disappointment.

That means even impressive quarterly results might trigger a negative market reaction if management raises spending forecasts without offering convincing evidence of future returns.

Risks: when growth becomes expensive

Three risks deserve particular attention.

First, AI demand could grow more slowly than the infrastructure built to serve it, leaving companies with underused capacity.

Second, competition could push down prices for computing services, limiting profitability even as customer adoption increases.

Third, rising electricity, financing and equipment costs could prolong the period before investments generate meaningful cash returns.

The early warning signs include slowing cloud growth, declining margins and repeated increases in spending forecasts.

Investor playbook: look beyond the earnings headline

Compare growth with profitability. Faster cloud revenue growth is more valuable when operating margins remain healthy.
Follow the cash. Track whether free cash flow improves as earlier investments begin generating revenue.
Watch spending guidance. Rising investment is easier to justify when expected demand and returns rise alongside it.
Check portfolio concentration. Several technology holdings may depend on the same AI investment cycle.

The bill is arriving. Will the profits follow?

For much of the AI boom, investors have focused on how quickly companies could build bigger, faster and more powerful computing systems. That remains important, but the next chapter looks increasingly financial.

Microsoft must show that growing AI adoption supports its expanding infrastructure. Alphabet needs to translate exceptional cloud growth into sustainable profits while protecting Search. Amazon must demonstrate that substantial investments can eventually generate more cash.

None of these questions will be settled by one earnings report. And spending heavily today is not necessarily a mistake if the eventual returns justify it.

The AI opportunity is becoming easier to see. The cost of pursuing it is also becoming harder to ignore. Ultimately, shareholders do not earn returns from how much companies spend, but from what that spending produces.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Quarterly earnings Theme - Artificial intelligence Artificial Intelligence Amazon.com Alphabet Microsoft Corp. Microsoft

Asia Market Quick Take – 27 October, 2026

Tue, 27 Oct 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 27 October, 2026

Key points:

Macro: Trump hints strikes could resume. Japan services PPI rises 3.7% yoy.
Equities: SOXX surges 2.8%. Tesla jumps 5.2% after upgrade by Barclays.
FX: JPY weakest on Monday for G10. Brazilian real tumbles 8%.
Commodities: Gold holds near $4,000; Brent crude pulls back from a six-month high
Fixed income: Treasury curve flattens notably; 10-year remains around 5%

------------------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva scored a surprise re-election win over Flávio Bolsonaro, sending Brazilian assets tumbling.
Renewed Middle East diplomacy is seeking to avert wider US‑Iran escalation, with Saudi, Pakistani, and Turkish officials meeting Iranian leaders to revive talks and prevent further US‑Israeli strikes. The effort comes before US midterms, as Trump hints strikes could resume. Ongoing clashes involving Saudi-led forces, Iran-backed Houthis, and Hezbollah keep regional oil supplies at risk despite crude flows returning to near prewar levels.
Japan’s Services PPI rose 3.7% y/y in September, up from a revised 3.5% and the highest since June 2024, led by transport and postal, leasing and rental, and other services; advertising prices fell. Month-on-month, the index gained 0.3%, its third straight rise.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to +0.07 in September from -0.08, as production and sales/orders/inventories improved, employment was neutral, and consumption and housing weakened. The three‑month average ticked up to +0.03.
UK shop price inflation rose to 2.1% y/y in October from 1.4%, the fastest since February 2024 and above the 1.6% forecast. Food inflation climbed to 2.9%, ambient food to 3.2%, fresh food stayed at 2.6%, and non‑food rose to 1.7%. The BRC flagged rising costs for retailers. Separately, UK CPI reached 3.5% in September, an 11‑month high.

Equities:

US — On Monday 26 October, US equities snapped a two-day losing streak. S&P 500 rose 0.7% to 7,676.77, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.8% to 26,169.38, and the Nasdaq 100 advanced 1.1%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) surged 2.8%, its best day since 21 September, as Anthropic IPO filing slated for week of 16 Nov boosted sentiment. Tesla was the standout Mag 7 mover, jumping 5.2% after Barclays upgraded the stock citing SpaceX M&A potential. Nvidia rose 2.4%. Meta fell 1.9% after the company disclosed plans to raise up to $95 billion via a stock offering. Lumentum Holdings surged 8.2%. US equity index futures are steady to slightly higher in early Asian trading Tuesday.
EU — European equities advanced on Monday 26 October, snapping a two-day losing streak. The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.8% to 640.66, the DAX gained 0.9% to 25,410.84, the CAC 40 added 0.8% to 7,847.32, and the Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.8% to 6,116.23. Genmab surged 12% after a positive late-stage trial update for an experimental cancer treatment, hitting a 52-week high. Rolls-Royce rose 6.1%, leading the FTSE 100 higher by 0.7% to 10,767.33. Computacenter jumped 13.1%. On the downside, Telefonica fell 7–8% and Santander dropped 3–6% on Brazil election exposure. Frasers Group took control of Hugo Boss.
Asia — Asian equities are broadly higher on Tuesday morning, tracking Wall Street's gains and buoyed by the Anthropic IPO filing. The MSCI Asia Pacific index is up 0.6%. The Nikkei 225 is advancing 1.6% to approximately 63,215, led by SoftBank Group (+5.3%) on AI sentiment. The Kospi is the standout performer, surging approximately 4.2% to 5,699, boosted by Anthropic euphoria and reports of SK Hynix's shareholder return programme — though analysts note the index needs to clear the 6,000 level to confirm a sustained recovery. The STI closed down 0.1% to 5,415.91 on Monday, with Sembcorp Industries the worst performer (-2.8%) and Hongkong Land the top gainer (+2.2%). Hong Kong markets are opening with a positive bias. The S&P/ASX 200 is slightly lower, down 0.2%, as investors rotate out of defensives into growth and AI-linked names.

Earnings this week:

Tuesday: Coca-Cola, Boeing, PayPal, Visa, HSBC
Wednesday: Alphabet, Microsoft, Ford, Ping An Insurance, PetroChina, Hitachi, SK Hynix
Thursday: Merck, Mastercard, Caterpillar, Intel, Amazon, BYD, Denso, Keyence, Wilmar International
Friday: Chevron, ExxonMobil, China Construction Bank, Kweichow Moutai, CNOOC, ICBC, Bank of China, Sands China, Panasonic

FX:

USDJPY rose 0.4% to 157.53 and is little changed in early Asia Tuesday. The yen was the worst G10 performer on Monday. Markets are in wait-and-see mode ahead of the Fed decision, with Nomura expecting the pair to remain range-bound around 157. Japan's FX cyber attack adds a layer of headline risk.
The Brazilian real tumbled more than 8% — its biggest single-day drop since the 1990s — following Lula's surprise re-election, dragging broader EM FX lower. The exchange operator B3 widened trading limits twice to accommodate the volatility.
AUDUSD fell 0.3% to 0.7015, consolidating ahead of Wednesday's Australian CPI. Markets are pricing approximately a 60% chance of an RBA hike next week, which could provide support if CPI surprises to the upside.
NZDUSD fell 0.3% to 0.5682. AUDNZD has scope to fall around Wednesday's RBNZ meeting, as leveraged funds remain net short NZD while AUD longs are stretched, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

Commodities:

Brent crude settled near $116 in a volatile session, pulling back from a six-month high near $117 seen last week. Diplomatic efforts to ease US-Iran tensions provided some relief, though Saudi-Houthi tensions and Middle East supply risk continue to underpin prices. European benchmark gas rose 2.8% to €96.44/MWh, a four-year high, on winter supply fears.
Gold is holding near $4,000 an ounce, having added 0.5% on Monday. Traders are in wait-and-see mode ahead of the Fed decision on Wednesday. The 10-year real yield fell 1.6bps to 2.63%, providing a mild tailwind for bullion.
Copper futures edged up 0.3% to $14,339 per metric ton on Monday, supported by the broader AI infrastructure spending theme and resilient US manufacturing data.

Fixed income:

The Treasury curve flattened notably on Monday ahead of this week's coupon auctions and the October 28 Fed decision. The 10-year yield was little changed near 4.997%, while the 30-year fell 1.7bps to 5.309%. The 5s30s spread compressed to 47.7bps from 51.6bps. Options demand remains skewed toward hedging a further rally in longer-dated yields.
The Treasury sold $69 billion in 2-year notes at 4.708%, tailing the 4.705% when-issued yield at the bidding deadline, indicating demand fell slightly short of expectations. Direct bidders were awarded a record share. The 2s10s curve remained approximately 4bps flatter following the results.
US investment-grade bond sales hit an annual record of $1.76 trillion, surpassing the prior record of $1.75 trillion set during the pandemic borrowing boom of 2020. AI infrastructure spending is a key driver, with QTS (Blackstone) seeking $800 million in private placement debt and SpaceX closing a $40 billion equipment financing deal.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

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European banks face a double test: earnings season meets the Fed and ECB

Mon, 26 Oct 2026 10:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Higher rates are a double-edged sword: they support lending income but can hurt bond portfolios and borrowers.
Strong profits are only half the story: earnings will test lending margins, credit quality and the outlook for 2027.
Cheap does not always mean attractive: sustainable profitability, strong balance sheets and sensible valuations matter more than ever.

European banks have enjoyed a remarkable comeback, helped by higher interest rates, stronger profits and generous shareholder payouts. But the relationship between banks and interest rates is becoming more complicated.

This week offers an important test.

The Federal Reserve announces its interest-rate decision on Wednesday, 28 October, followed by the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday, 29 October. Both are expected to keep rates unchanged, while some of Europe's largest banks publish their third-quarter earnings.

The timing matters. European banking shares have recently come under pressure, particularly in France, as rising government borrowing costs revive concerns about financial stability.

The paradox is simple: the same higher interest rates that helped banks earn more money could now become one of their biggest risks.

When higher rates stop being your best friend

Banks have a relatively straightforward business model. They collect deposits, lend money and generally earn more on loans than they pay depositors.

When central banks raise rates, banks can often charge borrowers more without immediately increasing the interest paid on deposits. This difference, known as the net interest margin, can improve profitability.

That has been an important driver of Europe's banking recovery.

In September, the ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.50%, while the Fed lifted its benchmark range to 3.75% to 4.00%.

But higher rates are not always good news.

First, depositors eventually demand better returns, increasing banks' funding costs. Second, expensive mortgages and business loans can discourage borrowing or make existing debts harder to repay.

There is also a third problem: government bonds.

When bond yields rise, existing bonds generally lose market value. Banks holding large government bond portfolios may face losses, pressure on their financial strength or higher funding costs. Some accounting rules allow them to avoid recognising temporary market losses immediately, but that does not eliminate the underlying risk.

This distinction matters. The ECB directly influences euro-area lending conditions, while the Fed affects international funding costs and global financial markets.

For investors, the question is no longer simply whether interest rates rise or fall, but whether a bank can remain profitable across different interest-rate environments.

Source: Saxo Bank analysis.

Earnings season: look beyond the headline profits

The coming days offer a useful comparison between different banking models.

HSBC reports on 27 October, followed by BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank, Banco Santander and UBS on 28 October. ING, Société Générale, BBVA and Danske Bank follow on 29 October, with Crédit Agricole and NatWest scheduled for 30 October. Italian lenders Intesa Sanpaolo and UniCredit report on 3 and 9 November, respectively.

Each provides a different perspective. HSBC offers insight into Asian markets and wealth management. Deutsche Bank reflects investment banking conditions, while Santander and BBVA operate across several economies.

But perhaps the most interesting case comes from Switzerland.

Following Credit Suisse's collapse in 2023 and its takeover by UBS, the Swiss government wants stricter capital requirements to prevent another banking crisis. The objective is straightforward: make banks hold larger financial cushions to absorb potential losses.

UBS, however, argues that the proposed rules would make it less competitive internationally. Its chairman has warned that excessively strict requirements could force the bank to reconsider its future in Switzerland.

The dispute now extends beyond shareholders. On 25 October, the Swiss Bank Employees Association warned that up to 12,000 of UBS's roughly 34,000 Swiss jobs could be at risk in a worst-case scenario involving relocation, a sale or a merger. These are potential losses, not announced redundancies.

UBS's Wednesday earnings therefore offer another important question: how much can tougher regulation affect a bank's future profitability and shareholder returns?

This is relevant well beyond Switzerland. Stronger capital buffers make banks safer, but holding more capital can also reduce the returns they generate for shareholders.

Ultimately, investors need to look beyond whether earnings beat expectations. Are lending margins holding up? Are more customers struggling to repay debts? Can banks continue paying dividends without weakening their financial strength?

A bank reporting record profits while its borrowers become less reliable may be less attractive than one delivering modest but sustainable growth.

Cheap banks or expensive problems?

Valuations make the story particularly interesting.

The STOXX Europe 600 Banks index trades at approximately 11.4 times expected earnings and 1.5 times book value, compared with 14.6 times expected earnings for the broader European market.

Book value represents a bank's assets minus its liabilities. Paying 1.5 times book value means paying EUR 1.50 for every EUR 1 of accounting equity.

French lenders appear particularly inexpensive. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, BNP Paribas, Société Générale and Crédit Agricole traded below eight times estimated earnings at the beginning of October, versus a median of 10.3 times for 20 major European banks.

Yet the discount reflects genuine concerns about French public finances, political uncertainty and government borrowing costs.

Banks today generally have stronger capital buffers and better supervision than during Europe's sovereign debt crisis. Nevertheless, their exposure to government debt remains important.

For investors, valuation only becomes meaningful when compared with sustainable profitability. A bank consistently earning attractive returns on shareholders' capital may deserve a higher valuation. Another generating unusually strong profits during favourable conditions might look cheap just before earnings weaken.

Risks: what could go wrong?

Three risks deserve attention.

A prolonged rise in government bond yields could put additional pressure on bank balance sheets, especially in countries facing fiscal uncertainty. Rising deposit costs could squeeze lending margins, while weaker economic growth could increase loan defaults.

The early warning signs include widening gaps between government bond yields, declining net interest margins and rising credit losses.

Investor playbook: a simple banking health check

Track lending profitability: compare net interest income with deposit costs, rather than focusing exclusively on headline earnings.
Watch credit quality: rising loan defaults alongside weakening economic growth can signal future pressure on profits.
Compare price with profitability: assess valuations alongside sustainable return on equity, not just current earnings.
Examine shareholder payouts: dividends and buybacks matter most when supported by healthy capital buffers and resilient profits.

The most valuable asset is resilience

European banks do not necessarily need interest rates to rise further to remain attractive investments. Nor would falling rates automatically make them worse businesses.

What matters is their ability to generate sustainable returns while managing the risks that come with lending money, holding bonds and financing economic activity.

This earnings season offers an opportunity to distinguish banks benefiting from favourable conditions from those with genuinely durable earning power.

The recent sell-off may have created more interesting valuations, but lower prices alone do not guarantee better long-term returns.

Ultimately, the best banking businesses are not necessarily those making the most money when conditions are favourable. They are those that continue making money when conditions change.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Quarterly earnings Central Banks Banks

Satellites, sovereignty and stocks: who stands to gain from Europe's space ambitions?

Fri, 23 Oct 2026 09:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Europe's satellite ambitions create opportunities for operators and manufacturers, but political support does not guarantee profits.
Eutelsat, SES and European telecom groups have different exposures, from owning satellites to selling connectivity.
US companies face potential restrictions, while European businesses must manage costs, competition and possible retaliation.

Europe wants greater control over the satellites connecting its citizens, businesses and armed forces. Washington is not particularly pleased.

In October 2026, the United States warned of potentially severe retaliation if Brussels proceeds with plans to reserve valuable satellite frequencies for European operators. Companies including SpaceX, which operates Starlink, could face restrictions.

The dispute comes as Europe increases investment in satellite communications, driven by defence needs, digital independence and growing demand for broadband.

For investors, this creates an interesting question: which companies stand to benefit from Europe's ambitions, which could lose ground, and who will ultimately pay the bill?

The answer extends far beyond Starlink.

The most valuable space may be invisible

The dispute centres on radio spectrum, the invisible frequencies that allow satellites to communicate with devices on Earth. Think of spectrum as lanes on a motorway. Companies need permission to use them, and access becomes more valuable as demand grows.

The European Commission proposes reserving two-thirds of a key frequency band for European operators and government services, leaving one-third open to international competition.

Current licences held by American companies Viasat and EchoStar expire in May 2027, making them directly exposed to the proposed changes.

Crucially, this is not a ban on Starlink's existing broadband network. The contested frequencies are particularly useful for connecting ordinary smartphones directly to satellites, without additional equipment.

SpaceX, through Starlink, and Amazon, through Amazon Leo, could face tighter competition for spectrum access. But European authorities also risk limiting innovation if restrictions favour local companies over better technology.

Three ways to benefit, three different risks

The most obvious European beneficiary is Eutelsat, the French operator behind OneWeb's network of more than 600 low Earth orbit satellites. Its satellite business is growing rapidly. Low Earth orbit revenue rose 69.5% to EUR 297 million in the financial year ending June 2026, reaching one-quarter of group revenue.

Yet overall revenue remained broadly flat. The lesson? A promising business can grow quickly without transforming the company's finances overnight.

Luxembourg-based SES offers another route through satellite services for governments, airlines and telecommunications companies.

Both participate in Europe's separate IRIS² programme, a planned secure communications network of 348 satellites, with launches starting in 2029.

But operating satellite networks is expensive. Growing demand must eventually justify the investment.

Airbus, Thales and Leonardo offer a different exposure. These aerospace and defence groups help manufacture satellites and their components, potentially earning revenue from government contracts without carrying the full costs of operating a network.

The distinction matters: building infrastructure can be profitable even when operating it proves difficult.

The unexpected players in the space race

On 19 October, Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Telefónica and Vodafone announced plans to explore a joint bid for European satellite spectrum. Their approach is interesting: rather than financing satellites themselves, they want to provide ground infrastructure and partner with an existing satellite operator.

That could expand coverage without requiring billions in satellite investment. However, the additional revenue may remain modest compared with their traditional telecom businesses.

The picture becomes even more interesting with AST SpaceMobile, an American company developing satellite-to-smartphone services. It already works with Vodafone and Orange, demonstrating that European operators can pursue greater independence while partnering with American technology providers.

This is not necessarily a contest with one winner. Different companies can benefit from different parts of the same network.

And there is a telling irony: Eutelsat's latest European-built satellites are preparing to launch aboard SpaceX rockets. Europe wants independence, but achieving it may still require American help.

When ambition meets reality

Three risks stand out.

First, Washington could turn its warnings into trade measures affecting European businesses beyond satellites.

Second, satellite networks require heavy investment. Delays, weak demand or rising costs could undermine returns, even with government support.

Third, Europe's competitors already have scale and technology advantages. Protected market access cannot guarantee competitive services or attractive profits.

An investor's radar

Watch regulation: the 2027 licensing process will clarify which companies gain or lose spectrum access.
Follow government contracts: new orders could benefit satellite operators and manufacturers differently.
Track cash flow: for Eutelsat and SES, revenue growth matters only if investment eventually produces sustainable returns.

The real prize is closer to Earth

Europe's satellite ambitions are about more than competing with Starlink. Reliable communications are becoming essential infrastructure, much like electricity or traditional defence equipment.

That creates opportunities, but strategic importance and attractive shareholder returns are not the same thing.

Eutelsat and SES must turn connectivity into profitable services. Airbus, Thales and Leonardo can benefit from building the infrastructure. Telecom operators offer another route, while American companies remain formidable competitors and partners.

For investors, the distinction between these business models matters more than the political headlines.

Europe may increasingly control what happens in its skies, but the real winners will be decided much closer to Earth: by contracts, costs and cash flow.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Artificial Intelligence Theme - Artificial intelligence Tesla Motors Tesla Inc. Meta Platforms Inc. Quarterly earnings

Asia Market Quick Take – 23 October, 2026

Fri, 23 Oct 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 23 October, 2026

Key points:

Macro: US initial jobless claims fall. Japan's CPI rises.
Equities: Nasdaq down 2.6% as chipmakers fall.
FX: Yen strengthens on safe-haven demand with USDJPY near 156
Commodities: Silver posted its lowest close in almost a year falling below $55
Fixed income: Treasuries’ best day in 2+ years; 10Y yield below 5%

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

US initial jobless claims fell by 6,000 to 194,000 in the week ended October 17, below expectations and the lowest since mid-July, signalling labour market resilience. Continuing claims rose by 25,000 to 1.728 million in the week ended October 10.
Japan’s annual inflation rose to 2.1% in September 2026 from 1.9%, the highest since December 2025. Core inflation (excluding fresh food) also hit 2.1%, just above the BoJ’s 2% target, while monthly consumer prices were flat.
Australia’s services PMI fell to 47.8 in October 2026 from 51.9 in September, signaling contraction. New business growth slowed on weaker demand, higher borrowing costs, and inflation, while employment and both input and output prices rose; sentiment stayed positive.
Houthi attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure and possible renewed US strikes on Iran have raised Middle East supply risks, though Persian Gulf crude exports remain near prewar levels. Ukraine has also intensified attacks on Russian refineries amid a US–Russia diesel supply deal.

Equities:

US — Wall Street sold off sharply on Thursday as a tech rout and surging oil prices drove investors into bonds. S&P 500 fell 1.2% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.6%, its worst session since June, as chipmakers plunged nearly 7% (SOX index -6%+). The Dow Jones was broadly flat. Meta fell 7% despite a Q3 beat, as its massive $825b AI capex plans alarmed investors as its credit default swaps touched a new high. Tesla dropped ~2% after cutting spending plans. Nvidia, Amazon, and Alphabet fell 3–4%. After hours, Newmont rose ~1.6% on a Q3 earnings beat, while Comfort Systems fell ~5.6% on a gross profit miss and CFO departure. SpaceX is reportedly in talks to secure 80,000 US cell sites, pressuring telecom stocks in after-hours trade.
EU — European equities declined on Thursday, tracking the global risk-off mood. The Stoxx 600 fell 1.0%, its worst session since Oct. 1. The DAX dropped 1.1%, the FTSE 100 fell 0.3% to 10,725, and the OMX Stockholm fell 2.5%. Key movers: ASML fell 5.0% (largest drag on Stoxx 600), Siemens Energy dropped 8.6%, Nokia fell 9.7%, and AT&S plunged 18.6%. Mining stocks led sector losses, with Boliden -5.2% and Anglo American -5.0%. Hermès slumped after Asia-Pacific sales disappointed. Moncler rose ~2.8% on a Q3 revenue beat. The CAC 40 has fallen more than 3% over the past month amid French political turmoil.
Asia — Asian equities extended losses on Friday morning, tracking Thursday's Wall Street selloff. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped ~0.3%, hovering near levels last seen in July. The Kospi fell sharply, down ~3.6%, on course for a fourth consecutive weekly loss, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both dropping more than 2% as chip sentiment deteriorated. The Nikkei 225 declined ~0.6% in early trade, with the Topix off ~0.8%, though defensive names Kao (+3%), Secom (+2.7%), and Sekisui House (+2.6%) bucked the trend. The Hang Seng was under pressure as the CSI 300 entered a bear market on Thursday, having lost $2.4 trillion since its May peak. Taiwan's stock exchange was closed Friday due to a typhoon. The STI was broadly flat. Australia's ASX 200 fell 0.4%, with Zip plunging ~50% after disclosing a $7.2 million US fraud event. Asian investment-grade dollar bond spreads widened to their highest since July 2025.

Earnings this week:

Friday: American Express, Schlumberger

FX:

USDJPY fell to ~156.25, down ~0.33% on the day, with the yen hovering near its strongest level in almost a month after surging Thursday as global equities sold off. Traders are eyeing a move toward the 155 handle as macro risk-off flows continue.
EURUSD traded at ~1.1223, up modestly (+0.06%), but the euro remains under pressure from deepening French fiscal stress, with the OAT-Bund spread at multi-year wides and equity ETF outflows accelerating.
The Singapore dollar is gaining traction as a carry trade funding currency, with the MAS having kept policy settings unchanged in a surprise move, reinforcing limited appreciation expectations.
AUDUSD fell to ~0.7013, down ~0.10%, as the global risk-off environment and weaker commodity sentiment weighed on the currency.
USDCAD has been on a six-session losing streak, down ~1.6% over that run — the largest such decline since late January.

Commodities:

Brent crude settled near $113/bbl on Thursday, up 4% on the day and its highest close since early May, as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia's Shaybah oil field and Dammam airport stoked supply disruption fears. WTI closed above $99/bbl. Brent is on course for a third consecutive weekly gain, up ~3% this week. Sky-high tanker rates are reportedly cutting US crude exports to Asia by ~50% for November delivery.
Gold spot closed 2.8% lower at ~$4,025/oz and edged lower to ~$4,017/oz on Friday, as elevated bond yields and a stronger dollar partially offset safe-haven inflows. Gold has slumped more than 20% since an earlier peak, per Newmont's earnings commentary.
Silver fell 5.8% and closed at its lowest level in almost a year on Thursday, pressured by the broader risk-off move and declining industrial demand sentiment tied to AI spending concerns and slowing global growth fears.

Fixed income:

Treasuries surged in their strongest rally since at least 2024, driven by a confluence of AI stock jitters, French bond stress, and Middle East tensions. The 10-year yield fell ~15–17bps to close at ~4.96%, breaking back below 5% for the first time in about a month. The 2-year fell ~15bps to ~4.66%, and the 30-year dropped ~10–13bps to ~5.29%. The 5s30s spread steepened to ~51bps from ~46bps. Yields are continuing to drift lower in early Asian trade on Friday.
French 10-year yields hit 5%, with the OAT-Bund spread widening to ~177bps, a multi-year high, as political turmoil deepened following cost-of-living riots and fiscal concerns. German Bunds also rallied, with 10-year yields falling ~7bps to ~3.35%, as haven demand spilled over from Treasuries.
A $26 billion 5-year TIPS auction drew the highest yield since October 2023 at 2.367%, though the broad Treasury rally into the bidding deadline trimmed yields. Breakeven inflation rates fell as investors shifted focus to growth risks over inflation, and December Fed funds contracts ceased to fully price in another rate hike for 2026.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

The price of the future: what Meta and Tesla's earnings reveal

Thu, 22 Oct 2026 09:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Meta's advertising engine is funding its AI ambitions, but rising spending raises the bar for future returns.
Tesla's profits remain under pressure, as investors weigh today's car business against tomorrow's robots and autonomous driving.
The real question is not who spends more, but who can turn investment into lasting profits.

Some companies invest in the future. Others seem determined to build several futures at once.

Meta and Tesla delivered their third-quarter earnings on 21 October 2026, offering investors two fascinating examples of this ambition.

Meta, the company behind Facebook and Instagram, is using its profitable advertising business to finance an artificial intelligence empire. Tesla, best known for electric cars, increasingly wants to become a leader in autonomous driving, robotics and AI.

Both are spending heavily. But their financial foundations, and the evidence supporting their ambitions, look rather different.

Meta: the money machine meets the spending machine

Meta's advertising business remains remarkably strong.

Revenue jumped 26% to 64.6 billion USD, helped by more advertisements and higher prices. AI is already improving recommendations and helping advertisers reach potential customers more effectively.

That matters. Meta is not simply hoping AI will eventually generate revenue. Parts of its investment are already improving the business that pays the bills. But those bills are getting considerably larger.

Meta now expects capital expenditure, mainly spending on infrastructure such as data centres and chips, of 135 billion to 145 billion USD in 2026. Its quarterly free cash flow, the money remaining after investment spending, turned negative at 2.1 billion USD.

A large legal charge also distorted reported profits. Excluding a 9.9 billion USD settlement-related expense, operating profit reached approximately 22.9 billion USD, representing a healthy 35% margin.

Meanwhile, its new AI assistant, Muse, has attracted more than 10 million registered users. The challenge now is turning engagement into profitable revenue.

Meta's proposed new non-voting share class adds another consideration: the company could raise capital while preserving Mark Zuckerberg's control.

The investor lesson: a profitable core business can finance ambitious projects, but growing revenue does not automatically translate into growing cash for shareholders.

Tesla: the future looks exciting, the present less so

Tesla's numbers tell a different story.

Revenue remained broadly flat at 28 billion USD, while reported net profit dropped around 43% to 787 million USD. The company delivered approximately 487,000 vehicles, demonstrating resilient demand. Yet operating profit fell 56%, highlighting the pressure from investment costs and the challenges facing its automotive business.

There were encouraging signs. Gross margins improved and Tesla generated 1.5 billion USD in free cash flow, despite quarterly capital expenditure more than doubling to 4.7 billion USD.

Tesla also reduced its expected full-year investment spending from 25 billion to 20 billion USD. But the investment story increasingly extends beyond cars. Autonomous taxis, Optimus humanoid robots and AI software could eventually create new revenue streams with different economics from manufacturing vehicles.

Meanwhile, Elon Musk confirmed that Tesla and SpaceX are exploring a potential merger. That creates another strategic question: would combining the businesses unlock valuable opportunities or increase complexity?

The investor lesson: Tesla's valuation increasingly depends on businesses whose future profitability remains difficult to measure. Progress in technology matters, but commercial adoption matters more.

Different businesses, surprisingly similar risks

Meta faces the risk that AI infrastructure costs grow faster than the profits they generate. Advertising growth, operating margins and free cash flow are useful early warning signs.

Tesla faces weaker vehicle profitability, execution challenges in autonomous driving and uncertainty around future investment requirements. Investors can monitor vehicle margins, commercial robotaxi adoption and cash generation.

Both companies also face a familiar risk: expectations. Even excellent products can disappoint shareholders when valuations already assume exceptional future success.

Investor playbook: follow the money

Separate today's profits from tomorrow's promises. Understand which businesses generate cash and which still consume it.
Watch spending efficiency. Rising investment becomes more convincing when revenue, margins and cash flow improve.
Consider expectations. Strong companies can still deliver disappointing returns when investors pay too much for future growth.
Mind concentration. Several technology holdings may depend on the same assumptions about AI adoption and spending.

The future still needs to pay the bills

Meta and Tesla are pursuing different versions of the future, but their earnings reveal a common challenge.

Meta has a powerful advertising engine generating substantial profits while its AI ambitions consume increasingly large amounts of capital. Tesla has an established automotive business, but much of its investment appeal increasingly rests on technologies that have yet to demonstrate their full commercial potential.

Neither approach guarantees success or failure.

For investors, the distinction matters because innovation and shareholder returns are not always the same thing. The most important question is rarely whether a company's vision sounds exciting. Both certainly do. It is whether that vision eventually produces more cash than it costs to build. The future may capture imaginations. But only profits can reward investors.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Artificial Intelligence Theme - Artificial intelligence Tesla Motors Tesla Inc. Meta Platforms Inc. Quarterly earnings

SpaceX earnings: rockets built the empire, but AI is driving its future

Wed, 21 Oct 2026 09:45:00 Z

Key takeaways

SpaceX's revenue jumped 161%, with artificial intelligence becoming its largest business.
Starlink remains the profit powerhouse, while a major acquisition accelerates SpaceX's ambitions in artificial intelligence.
Spending is accelerating, and a possible Tesla merger adds opportunity alongside considerable uncertainty.

When investors think of SpaceX, they picture rockets returning to Earth, satellites filling the sky and Elon Musk dreaming about Mars. But its latest earnings suggest the company's most important launch may be happening much closer to home.

On 20 October 2026, SpaceX reported third-quarter revenue of 14.6 billion USD, up 161% from a year earlier. Net profit reached 4.4 billion USD, reversing a 1.1 billion USD loss and comfortably beating analyst expectations, as compiled by Bloomberg.

The surprise? More than half of SpaceX's revenue now comes from artificial intelligence, not rockets or satellites. For investors, this changes the question. SpaceX is no longer simply a space company. It is becoming a sprawling infrastructure and technology business, with very different sources of growth, profits and risk.

From rockets to artificial intelligence

SpaceX now has three main businesses: rockets and space services, Starlink satellite internet, and a fast-growing Super Intelligence division.

The last of these stole the show.

Super Intelligence generated 7.6 billion USD in quarterly revenue, up approximately 830% from a year earlier. The business develops AI models and software while renting powerful computing capacity to other companies.

Growth reflects new computing contracts, greater adoption of its Grok software and the acquisition of Cursor, an AI-powered coding platform.

SpaceX completed the Cursor acquisition in August at an implied equity value of 60 billion USD. The logic is interesting: rather than simply providing computing infrastructure, SpaceX increasingly wants to own the applications running on it.

Think of it as owning the electricity supply, the factory and some of the products coming off the production line.

The division also turned profitable at the operating level, earning 431 million USD. This matters because investors have become increasingly concerned about whether enormous AI investments will eventually produce real earnings.

But there is an important distinction. Revenue is growing spectacularly, while investment spending remains even larger.

Starlink pays the bills, while Starship builds the future

Beneath the AI headlines, Starlink may be SpaceX's most attractive business today.

Its satellite internet division generated 5.2 billion USD in revenue, up 69%, and 2.4 billion USD in operating profit.

Consumer subscribers reached 13.6 million, while demand from businesses and governments continued expanding.

Unlike rocket launches, which depend on individual contracts, internet subscriptions generate recurring revenue. Once the satellites are operating, each additional customer can help spread the network's enormous fixed costs.

Meanwhile, the traditional space business generated 1.8 billion USD in revenue but recorded a small operating loss.

This exposes an interesting relationship. Rockets enable Starlink to grow, Starlink generates profits, and those profits can help fund more ambitious projects.

Starship could eventually strengthen this advantage by carrying more satellites at lower cost per unit, although its economics still need to be proven.

SpaceX and Tesla: better together?

There is also a potentially much bigger development. During the earnings call, Musk was asked whether merging SpaceX with Tesla would make sense. His response was unusually direct: “Do I think it would be a good idea? Yes.”

Both companies have established independent committees to explore a possible merger, although no agreement has been reached.

The logic goes beyond combining rockets and electric cars. Tesla develops electric vehicles, robotics and energy systems, while SpaceX brings satellite connectivity, AI computing and launch infrastructure. Together, they could share technology, reduce duplicated spending and accelerate development.

At a combined market value of approximately 3.5 trillion USD, however, this would be an extraordinary transaction. Musk also cautioned that a deal is far from guaranteed and ultimately requires shareholder approval.

For investors, the important question is whether combining these businesses would create more value than keeping them separate. Bigger does not automatically mean better.

What investors can learn

Follow cash, not just growth: compare rising AI revenue with investment spending and actual cash generation.
Separate the businesses: evaluate recurring Starlink profits differently from the more uncertain AI and rocket ambitions.
Watch the merger terms: assess whether any Tesla combination creates value without adding excessive financial or governance risks.

The next launch matters more than the last

SpaceX's latest results reveal something more interesting than another successful rocket launch. The company is building an interconnected business where rockets support satellites, satellites generate recurring profits, and artificial intelligence offers another enormous growth opportunity.

That combination could prove powerful, particularly if the businesses reinforce one another and reduce costs over time. But rapid growth is not the same as lasting shareholder returns. With investment spending accelerating and merger discussions emerging, expectations are rising almost as quickly as revenue.

SpaceX has already demonstrated that it can send rockets into orbit and bring them safely home. Its next challenge is less spectacular, but arguably more important for investors: turning extraordinary ambition into sustainable cash flow.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Artificial Intelligence Theme - Artificial intelligence Tesla Motors Tesla Inc. Quarterly earnings

Asia Market Quick Take – 21 October, 2026

Wed, 21 Oct 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 21 October, 2026

Key points:

Macro: US ADP rose; UK unemployment falls to 4.7%
Equities: Dow outperforms rising 1%
FX: Pound was among the top G10 performers and yuan strengthens
Commodities: Oil whipsawed & gold under pressure.
Fixed income: Treasuries bull-flattened with real yields declining

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

ADP Weekly Payrolls showed US private payrolls rose an average of 18,500 per week in the four weeks to 3 October, highlighting a modestly softening labour market.
Japan’s exports rose 16.7% yoy in September 2026, below the 20.1% consensus and the softest growth in 13 months, despite strong AI‑related chip and semiconductor demand and broad-based gains across major destinations and categories.
US pending home sales fell 7.3% m/m in September 2026 to a record low, far worse than the expected 0.5% drop, as surging mortgage rates hit affordability and dragged down activity across all regions.
Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir met senior Iranian officials in Tehran to discuss bilateral ties and talks with Washington, but a participating diplomat denied an imminent deal while confirming negotiations continue.
The UK unemployment rate fell to 4.7% in the three months to August 2026, beating expectations for 4.9% and reaching its lowest since mid‑2025, as unemployment declined and employment rose, pushing the employment rate up to 75.3% and nudging inactivity lower.
Governor Kazuo Ueda said underlying inflation is nearing the BOJ’s 2% target amid a moderate recovery and tight labor market, driven by higher Middle Eastern energy costs and strong AI‑related demand.

Equities:

US: US equities closed mixed as strong earnings offset AI credit concerns. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 1.0% to 52,495.88, the S&P 500 rose 0.3% to 7,712.57 led by healthcare stocks, while the Nasdaq Composite edged down 0.02% to 26,424.82. Key movers: Equifax surged 11.3%, Eli Lilly gained 3.5%, and GM fell 7.6% after CEO Mary Barra warned of "intensifying" challenges and narrowed guidance. In after-hours trading, SpaceX posted $4.4 billion in net income, well above the $1.88 billion consensus, lifting S&P 500 ETFs. Tesla also gained 2% after Musk said he likes the idea of Tesla and SpaceX merging. Capital One rose 4.5% post-market on a strong earnings beat. Netflix sank on a disappointing subscriber update. Super Micro Computer jumped 15% after preliminary sales results $18.5-$19.5b vs estimate of $15b.
EU: European equities drifted lower, weighed by AI jitters and French political risk. The Stoxx 600 fell 0.1% to 638.64, with ASML down 2.7% the largest drag. The FTSE 100 dropped 0.3% to 10,733, with HSBC the biggest contributor to losses and Diploma falling 4.0%. The DAX was little changed at 25,304, with Brenntag the worst performer at -3.4%. The SMI outperformed, rising 0.8% to 14,478 led by Roche (+2.6%). The OMX Stockholm fell 0.9%, dragged by ABB (-4.9%). French stocks continued to underperform amid ongoing cost-of-living protests and fiscal concerns, with French 10-year OAT yields holding near multi-year highs at 4.95%.
Asia: Asian equities fell sharply on Tuesday as AI trade jitters and rate fears dominated. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 1.2%. The Hang Seng Index fell 1.3% to 23,867.74, with Alibaba down 3.6% and Lenovo tumbling 10.0% after Citi cut its price target by 20%. CATL fell sharply ahead of earnings that subsequently missed estimates — net income rose 15% year-on-year to 21.25 billion yuan, well below the 26 billion yuan consensus. The Kospi plunged 3.7% to 5,552.74, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix each falling around 3–4% on AI spending concerns and the Elice IPO debacle. The STI slipped 0.1% to 5,404.02, with Yangzijiang Shipbuilding the worst performer at -3.1%. The Nikkei 225 also declined. However, sentiment has sharply reversed overnight: as of early Wednesday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index is up 0.6%, the Kospi has rebounded 1.9%, and Nasdaq 100 futures are up 0.7% on the back of SpaceX and Super Micro earnings beats.

Earnings this week:

Wednesday: Abbott, NextEra Energy, AT&T, CME Group, Danaher, Tesla, Meta, IBM, Lam Research, Texas Instruments, Philip Morris
Thursday: Lockheed Martin, Nokia, Comcast, American Airlines, Bloom Energy
Friday: American Express, Schlumberger

FX:

All G10 currencies advanced against the greenback at the session's weakest point for the dollar.
USDJPY has slipped past 158, trading at 158.34 this morning (+0.1% on the day). The pair has traded in a tight 200-pip range over the past 20 days, with analysts noting the range increasingly resembles a managed currency. A Fed rate hike remains the clearest catalyst for a topside break.
GBPUSD is at 1.3374, holding above its 21-day moving average for the first time since late August, reinforcing near-term topside dynamics. The pound was among the top G10 performers during Tuesday's dollar weakness.
The yuan strengthened modestly onshore and offshore on Tuesday as the dollar weakened alongside falling oil prices.

Commodities:

Brent crude hit a five-month intraday high above $111 a barrel on Tuesday before reversing sharply, settling at $108.79 (-0.69%) after a diplomat confirmed that reports of an imminent US-Iran peace deal were inaccurate. WTI settled near $98 a barrel. The session saw a range of over $6 for Brent. Iranian IRGC reported tankers struck mines in the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran added 122 tankers to its sanctions list. Brent is currently at $109.50 and WTI at $98.50.
Gold settled at $4,122.40 on Tuesday (-0.40%), its second consecutive session of losses, as elevated oil prices fuelled inflation concerns and clouded the Fed rate path. Bullion is trading around $4,117 this morning, down more than 1% since the start of the week and approximately 22% below its January 2026 peak of $5,318. ETF gold holdings continue to rise, reaching a four-year high, but leveraged players have reduced exposure.

Fixed income:

The curve aggressively twist-flattened, with the long end rallying on haven demand from AI jitters and lower oil prices. The 10-year yield fell 2.6 basis points to 5.117%, while the 30-year fell 4.7 basis points to 5.424%. The front end was little changed, with the 1-year yield at 4.482%. The 5s30s spread compressed to 49.1 basis points from 52.9 basis points.
US 10-year real yields fell 4.9 basis points to 2.74% on Tuesday, though they remain 81 basis points higher year-to-date. September CPI was 3.7% year-on-year, keeping the inflation backdrop elevated. Treasury options markets showed two consecutive days of demand for downside protection targeting a 10-year yield rise to 5.3% by month-end, suggesting the market is not fully convinced the rally has legs.
French 10-year yields held near multi-year highs at 4.95%, extending underperformance versus Bunds. French bonds remain under pressure from ongoing cost-of-living protests and fiscal concerns, with a record share of investors reportedly underweighting French equities. US high-yield credit also remains stressed, with CCC spreads at 1,072 basis points — the widest since October 2022.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

Meta and Tesla earnings preview: two very different businesses, one AI dream

Tue, 20 Oct 2026 09:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Meta's advertising business funds its AI ambitions, but rising costs are testing its profitability.
Tesla's robotaxis and robotics offer new growth opportunities, while its car business faces pressure and spending accelerates.
Both earnings reports will test whether ambitious AI investments can eventually translate into sustainable profits.

Meta recently launched an artificial intelligence (AI) assistant that can organise your life. Tesla unveiled a Roadster that can leap into the air. Very different products, but surprisingly similar investment stories.

On 21 October, both companies report third-quarter earnings as investors increasingly question the enormous sums being spent on AI.

Meta wants AI to transform how billions interact with technology. Tesla wants it to transform transportation and robotics. Both have ambitious plans, but the question is shifting from what AI can do to what it can earn.

Meta: advertising pays the bills, AI promises the future

Meta, the company behind Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, has an important advantage: a highly profitable advertising business and billions of potential customers.

Its ambitions now extend well beyond advertising.

In September, Meta launched Muse, an AI assistant capable of handling everyday tasks, including managing schedules and booking travel. More recently, it introduced Muse Wonder, a more advanced AI model, alongside new smart glasses and an enterprise platform for businesses.

These launches could create new revenue streams through subscriptions, business services and connected devices. Meta can also introduce them to its enormous existing user base.

Meanwhile, AI is already improving advertising performance, helping Meta's traditional business grow.

But there is a catch: the costs are growing even faster.

Second-quarter revenue increased 28% to 60.8 billion USD, while expenses rose 55%. Operating margins fell from 43% to 31%, and free cash flow, the money remaining after operating and investment costs, dropped to 784 million USD.

With capital expenditure expected to reach 130 billion USD to 145 billion USD in 2026, investors will closely examine advertising growth, spending guidance for 2027 and early signs of Muse adoption.

Meta's opportunity is to build new businesses on top of an already profitable one. The challenge is ensuring the new ambitions do not consume too much of the old business's profits.

Tesla: cars today, robots tomorrow

Tesla faces almost the opposite challenge.

The electric-vehicle maker increasingly wants to become an AI and robotics company, with robotaxis, humanoid robots and energy storage playing bigger roles.

Its recent Roadster unveiling demonstrated impressive engineering, but the more important developments concern Cybercab, Tesla's purpose-built autonomous taxi, and Optimus, its humanoid robot.

Both could eventually open substantial markets. However, moving from demonstrations to large-scale commercial operations remains a major challenge.

Meanwhile, Tesla's existing car business faces growing competition and pressure on profitability.

Third-quarter deliveries reached approximately 487,000 vehicles, exceeding expectations despite falling around 2% from a year earlier. The critical question is whether Tesla can protect margins, particularly without relying on regulatory credits earned by selling emissions allowances.

Energy storage offers another opportunity. Tesla deployed 13.7 gigawatt-hours of batteries during the quarter, supporting an already established business that benefits from growing electricity demand.

Still, the investment bill is substantial. According to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg, Tesla’s capital expenditure is expected to exceed 25 billion USD in 2026, putting pressure on cash generation.

Unlike Meta, which is mainly using AI to strengthen an existing business, Tesla is investing partly to become a different company altogether.

Source: Saxo Bank analysis. Illustrative business model comparison, future revenue opportunities are not guaranteed.

Risks: when ambition meets reality

For Meta, the main risks are rising infrastructure costs, fierce AI competition and privacy concerns surrounding personal assistants.

Tesla faces execution delays, regulatory hurdles for autonomous driving and competition in electric vehicles. Both also face valuation risk if investors have already priced in years of future success.

The warning sign is similar: spending continues rising without corresponding improvements in profitability or commercial progress.

Investor playbook

Follow the money: compare revenue growth with expenses, profit margins and free cash flow.
Separate products from profits: new launches matter more when customers start paying for them.
Watch the next spending cycle: higher 2027 investment guidance could change expectations for future returns.
Consider valuations: even strong results can disappoint when share prices already reflect ambitious expectations.

Big dreams still need profitable businesses

Meta and Tesla are chasing the same AI future from very different starting points. Meta relies on advertising profits to fund new products, while Tesla aims to move beyond cars into robotics and autonomous driving.

Wednesday's earnings will offer clues about whether those ambitions are translating into stronger businesses. After all, Tesla's Roadster may leap into the air, and Meta's Muse may organise our lives. But for investors, what matters is where the profits land.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Artificial Intelligence Theme - Artificial intelligence Tesla Motors Tesla Inc. Meta Platforms Inc. Quarterly earnings

Asia Market Quick Take – 19 October, 2026

Mon, 19 Oct 2026 01:00:00 Z

Key points:

Macro: Saudi and Houthis tension continues. Trump postpones sanctions on Russia.
Equities: US stocks slumped on AI-chip rout; futures rebound ahead earnings-heavy week
FX: USD weakens on Fed-hold bets; AUD outperforms while EUR lags
Commodities: Oil holds near $110 on persistent Middle East and shipping disruptions
Fixed income: Treasury curve steepens amid renewed haven demand

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

Fed Chair Warsh offered no guidance on this month’s FOMC decision, saying hotter inflation hadn’t changed his outlook and further reducing odds of an October hike. He said inflation is still too high but broadly in line with expectations. The Fed lifted rates to 3.75%–4% in September, its first hike since 2023, and most officials still expect one more increase this year.
Saudi–Houthi fighting continued with a Saudi helicopter down near Yemen and Houthi strikes on Yanbu, while three tankers were damaged in the Strait of Hormuz as Iran’s IRGC tightened control. Ukrainian drones hit oil sites in St. Petersburg, and Trump said he struck a diesel export deal with Russia and delayed new sanctions to safeguard Ukraine peace talks.
US capacity utilization climbed to 76.9% in September 2026, the highest since December 2023 and above the 76.5% forecast, but still below the 79.4% long-run average. Mining rose to 87.5%, utilities to 73.8%, and manufacturing to 75.9%.
US industrial production rose 0.7% month-on-month in September, the most in five months and above the 0.4% forecast. Manufacturing output increased 0.3%, mining 0.2%, and utilities 3.5%. Capacity utilization climbed to 76.9%, still 2.5 points below its long‑run average. For Q3, industrial output grew at a 2.8% annualized pace.
The New York Fed’s Services Index slid to -20.7 in October 2026 from -8.7, the weakest since March, signaling faster contraction amid a very weak business climate, flat employment, high input costs, faster price increases, and a pessimistic six‑month outlook.
Eurozone inflation rose to 3.8% in September 2026 from 3.2%, a third straight acceleration and the highest since September 2023, driven by higher energy, services, and food prices. Core inflation edged up to 2.5%. Month-on-month, CPI increased 0.6%.

Equities:

US — On Friday 16 October, the S&P 500 fell 1.1% to 7,659, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.1% to 26,140, and the Dow slipped 0.3% to 52,002, capping the S&P 500's worst week since June and the Nasdaq's worst week since April 2025. The selloff was driven by a rout in AI and semiconductor stocks, with chipmakers posting their longest losing streak since 2008. CoreWeave was the epicentre of the AI trade unwind, falling more than 20% on the week amid capital expenditure financing concerns. This morning, S&P 500 futures are up 0.5% and Nasdaq 100 futures are up 0.9%, bouncing ahead of a heavy earnings week.
EU — European equities outperformed sharply last week, with the Stoxx 600 rising 2.1% — its biggest weekly outperformance versus the S&P 500 since April 2025 — as investors rotated out of AI names and into European defensives and value stocks. On Friday, the Stoxx 600 closed up 0.7% to 644.74, led by banks and food and beverage. The FTSE 100 rose 0.4% to 10,881, its highest close since 25 August, with BAT and Babcock leading. The SMI gained 0.3% to 14,391. Goldman Sachs strategists expect Stoxx 600 constituents to post 20% earnings growth in the second half of 2026.
Asia — Asian equities are navigating a difficult backdrop this morning as the global AI trade continues to unwind. The Kospi is under acute pressure, with the 5,000 level now firmly on investors' radar after this month's slide of more than 10%; Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have been among the hardest hit following reports of Chinese competition in memory chips. The Hang Seng closed up 0.5% to 24,186 on Friday 16 October, led by Alibaba (+2.3%) and Lenovo (+8.0%), though mainland investors sold a net HK$3.57 billion via Stock Connect for a fourth consecutive session. The Nikkei and STI are also under pressure from the broader AI-driven selloff and elevated oil prices. Nasdaq futures bouncing +0.9% this morning, alongside Anthropic's announcement of a public-benefit fund commitment, may provide some relief at the open. The Taiwan dollar remains under pressure, having posted its largest single-day drop in over a year last week on AI sentiment.

Earnings this week:

Tuesday: GE Aerospace, General Motors, 3M, Netflix, United Airlines, SpaceX, CATL
Wednesday: Abbott, NextEra Energy, AT&T, CME Group, Danaher, Tesla, Meta, IBM, Lam Research, Texas Instruments, Philip Morris
Thursday: Lockheed Martin, Nokia, Comcast, American Airlines, Bloom Energy
Friday: American Express, Schlumberger

FX:

USD weakened on Friday, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index down 0.2%, capping its worst week since early September after Warsh’s comments were read as favouring a Fed hold. The softer USD helped the euro break a five‑week losing streak and supported a broad rally in EM FX and equities.
AUD is the clear G10 outperformer this morning (+0.27%), extending Friday's risk-on momentum.
EUR is the laggard among commodity-currency pairs, down 0.09%, consistent with the geopolitical risk premium noted at the open.
JPY is firming slightly — USDJPY pulling back to 157.79 from Friday's 158.02 close, suggesting mild safe-haven demand.
CAD is also strengthening (USDCAD -0.14%), likely supported by oil prices.

Commodities:

Brent crude hit $110 a barrel for the first time since May last week, driven by supply disruption fears from the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea, as well as Houthi strikes on Saudi Aramco's headquarters. Oil slipped modestly this morning as doubts grow over the materialisation of Trump's Russian diesel deal, with US lawmakers having introduced a bill to block the transaction.
Gold is trading near multi-month highs, supported by elevated inflation, geopolitical risk and tentative safe-haven flows as the AI trade wobbles. The 10-year real yield at 2.75% remains a headwind, though the recent bond rally has provided some relief.
Silver has fallen more than 50% from its record high earlier this year, with analysts noting the metal's economic sensitivity as a potential leading indicator of slowing growth amid persistently high fuel prices.

Fixed income:

US Treasuries — curve steepening: The Treasury curve steepened on Friday, with the 10-year yield rising 2.4bps to 5.087% and the 30-year rising 2bps to 5.428%, while the 1-year fell 1.8bps to 4.44%. The 5s30s spread widened to 54.2bps. The long-end selloff was exacerbated by the oil surge and the release of the primary dealer survey for the November refunding, which asked about long-end buyback operations — Citi strategists interpreted this as signalling a potential reduction in long-bond issuance.
Despite Friday's long-end weakness, 10-year yields fell approximately 17bps over the course of last week as the AI trade wobbled and the Nasdaq tumbled 5.5%. Treasuries are showing tentative signs of reclaiming their traditional safe-haven role, threatening investors who are heavily short duration.
8-week T-bill yields hit 4.05% at auction last week — the highest in over a year — with record-low demand, reflecting investor reluctance to absorb growing bill supply amid a widening deficit and an uncertain Fed path.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.
The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

Asia Market Quick Take – 16 October, 2026

Fri, 16 Oct 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 16 October, 2026

Key points:

Macro: US PPI and retails sales hotter than expected
Equities: SP500 snaps 3 day losing streak; TSMC lower post earnings.
FX: USD slumped on bond rally; AUD weakened, Asia FX underperformed
Commodities: Precious metals recover while oil remains elevated
Fixed income: US Treasuries rally; curve bull flattens

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

US producer prices jumped 1.3% month-on-month in September 2026, the biggest rise since March 2022 and well above the 0.5% forecast, driven by a 10.8% surge in energy and higher transport, trade, and food costs. Core PPI rose 0.7%, while annual PPI climbed 6.3%, the highest since December 2022.
US retail sales rose 0.8% month-on-month in September 2026, after a revised 1.3% gain in August and above the 0.3% forecast, largely driven by a 6.4% jump at gasoline stations on higher prices. Excluding gas, sales were up 0.2%. Control-group sales used for GDP rose 0.1%, after 1.2% in August.
Stronger Canadian manufacturing data boosted bets on a Bank of Canada rate hike. Manufacturing sales rose 1.5% in August 2026 to C$79.9 billion, beating the 1.1% forecast, but the economy showed signs of cooling as employment fell by 68,300 versus expectations for a 7,000 gain, amid ongoing US–Canada trade uncertainty.
US jobless claims rose by 1,000 to 199,000 in the week ending October 10, 2026, just below the 200,000 forecast. Continuing claims fell by 4,000 to 1,710,000, near recent lows, underscoring a still-strong labor market. Federal employee initial claims rose by 68 to 463.
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index fell to 20.9 in October 2026 from 37.8, below expectations and the weakest growth since June. New orders, shipments, and employment all slowed but stayed positive, while prices paid and received continued to indicate rising prices. Firms remained optimistic, though most future indicators softened.

Equities:

US: S&P 500 snapped a three-day losing streak on Thursday, closing up 0.3% at 7,744. The Dow Jones Industrial Average outperformed, rising 1.1%, while the Nasdaq 100 pared a steep intraday loss of 1.8% to close roughly flat. The session was characterised by a rotation out of AI and chip names — Nvidia fell ~2%, Tesla -1.6% — into healthcare, financials and materials. Coreweave rebounded after 9.5% drop to close 5% higher after Jensen Huang says financial health is improving. BNY Mellon (+3.2%) and Marsh McLennan (+4.6%) were notable gainers on earnings beats. TSMC closed 1.8% lower despite Q3 results coming in better than expected with net profit growing 68.7% yoy and operating margin 58.7%, above estimates.
EU: European equities showed resilience on Thursday despite the global chip rout. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.4% to 640.16, led by healthcare; AstraZeneca gained 3.2% and Barry Callebaut surged 7.7%. The FTSE 100 climbed 1.1% to 10,840, boosted by banks after UK Chancellor comments suggested the sector may avoid a windfall tax. The CAC 40 rose 0.8% to 7,934.70, and the DAX gained 0.3% to 25,382. The Euro Stoxx 50 underperformed, falling 0.4% to 6,168. European chip stocks were hit hard — ASML fell 5.7%, ASM International -8.6%, and Infineon -8.0% — as Anthropic's results added to AI slowdown fears. Ericsson surged ~11% after beating sales and profit estimates.
Asia: Asian equities are broadly recovering this morning, tracking Thursday's Wall Street rebound. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is up ~0.6%, led by South Korea. The Kospi is up 1.6% to 5,644 as chip stocks Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix edge higher after Thursday's brutal session, when the Kospi had plunged as much as 6.5% on AI spending fears. The Nikkei 225 closed Thursday's session at 64,426, with the Topix up ~1.5% this morning. The Hang Seng closed Thursday at 24,063, with China's Shanghai Composite falling 1.6% and the ChiNext dropping 2.9% on Thursday amid the tech selloff. The STI fell 0.4% to 5,403.50 on Thursday as the chip rout weighed on Singapore. Taiwan's Taiex dropped 3.4% on Thursday — its sixth-largest one-day point decline — dragged by TSMC, whose ADRs slipped 1.8% despite a better-than-expected Q4 revenue outlook of up to $54.3bn. Australia's ASX 200 is up ~1% this morning at 8,805.

FX:

USD had its weakest day in over a month on Thursday, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index down 0.3% as AI-related worries sparked a bond rally and drove 10‑year Treasury yields to 5.05%.
NOK edged out the CHF to register the best performance among 14 major currencies, gaining 0.41% against the USD.
AUDUSD fell as much as 1.1% intraday to 0.6894 — its lowest since July 2 — before settling at 0.6921. The selloff was driven by weaker-than-expected Australian jobs data, which prompted traders to trim RBA rate hike expectations, compounded by the broader tech stock rout.
USDJPY edged down to 158.00, though the yen was actually the worst performer among 14 major currencies as of the Asian session, before recovering ground later in the day.
USDCNH edged up as the dollar fell broadly. The PBOC set Thursday's fixing at 6.7253 per dollar, slightly weaker than Wednesday's 6.7249.
Emerging Markets Taiwan dollar & South Korean won: Underperformed sharply as the semiconductor stock selloff spilled into Asian FX markets — TWD fell as much as 0.8%, KRW as much as 1%.

Commodities:

Spot gold is trading at $4,154/oz, down ~0.4% on the day, consolidating after slumping on Wednesday when the hot September CPI print reignited Fed rate hike bets. The precious metal remains sensitive to the trajectory of real yields, which fell ~10bps on Thursday as the AI-driven equity selloff sparked a flight to Treasuries.
Oil was set for a second weekly advance as Middle East supply risks outweighed a fresh release of emergency reserves; Brent near $106 (up ~1% w/w) and WTI around $97, amid heightened uncertainty over Persian Gulf flows after US Central Command said the sunk ship was hit by an Iranian projectile.
LME 3-month copper is at $14,347/ton, flat on the day, after falling for a third consecutive session on Wednesday as the hot US inflation print spurred bets on more aggressive Fed tightening. Europe's top copper producer Aurubis has flagged tight market conditions, reportedly offering a record premium of $347/ton for 2027 supply contracts.

Fixed income:

Treasuries staged a significant rally as the AI-driven equity selloff triggered a flight-to-quality bid. The 10-year yield fell as much as 15bps intraday to a three-week low of ~5.04%, while the 30-year fell ~13bps. The move was amplified by a large block trade in Ultra-long bond futures ($720k/DV01) and CTA short-covering flows. Yields settled: 2-year at 4.77%, 10-year at 5.09%, and 30-year at 5.42%.
Investors liquidated two Treasury option bets targeting higher yields at a combined loss of nearly $18 million. The trades — initiated on Tuesday as CPI hedges — were unwound as Treasuries surged immediately after the equity selloff deepened, underscoring the speed of the rates reversal.
The rally extended to European government bonds, with the 10-year Bund yield hitting an intraday low of 3.35%, its lowest in more than five weeks, as risk aversion outweighed the prior day's inflation shock. Falling oil prices also supported the move lower in yields across the eurozone.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

Asia Market Quick Take – 14 October, 2026

Wed, 14 Oct 2026 01:00:00 Z

Key points:

Macro: Tensions continue between Houthis and Saudi. Iran steps up attacks on tankers
Equities: Chips slide. Banks reported earnings. Microsoft closed at record high
FX: USD weakened on lower yields; AI-driven equity rout pressured Asian currencies
Commodities: Precious metal remain under selling pressure
Fixed income: Treasuries rally led by long end of the curve

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

Fed: NY Fed President John Williams said one more rate hike is appropriate this year but does not believe further tightening will be necessary in 2027. White House NEC Director Kevin Hassett added it is "very possible" the Fed could hold if inflation data continues to slow.
US Data (Tuesday): US existing home sales rose 1.5% to a 3.99 million annual rate in September, slightly above the 3.95 million estimate. NFIB small-business optimism slipped 0.8 points to 97.9, a three-month low. Redbook same-store sales surged over 10% YoY in the week ended Oct. 10.
Germany CPI: Final September harmonised CPI confirmed at +3.3% YoY, up from 2.9% in August, reinforcing sticky inflation concerns in the eurozone's largest economy.
IMF Warning: The IMF flagged surging government bond yields as the biggest emerging risk to the global financial system. Ray Dalio separately warned the US bond selloff has a "long way to go."
The IMF now sees global growth at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, supported by resilient advanced economies and AI investment but constrained by high energy prices. Forecasts: US 2.3% in 2026–27; China 4.5% then 4.0%; Japan 0.7% both years; India 7.0% both years; eurozone 1.1% then 1.2%; UK 1.3% then 1.2%.
BOJ: Bank of Japan officials are reportedly leaning against a back-to-back rate increase this month, according to people familiar with the matter, while eyeing a potential move as soon as December.
Houthi militants struck Saudi Aramco’s Dhahran HQ and Riyadh’s airport as a Saudi-led coalition advanced in Yemen. Iran stepped up tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, while the US said it helped move over 19 million barrels of crude. Trump defended his diesel export deal with Russia as a way to boost supply and cut prices.
Singapore’s MAS unexpectedly held policy, keeping the exchange-rate band’s slope, width and center unchanged, signaling prior tightening may suffice amid oil- and AI-driven inflation. It’s the first pause after April and July hikes.

Equities:

US — The S&P 500 closed little changed at 7,805.45 on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq 100 down 0.3% and the Dow shedding 180 points. Chipmakers extended their slide for a sixth straight session — Applied Materials fell 6.7% and Micron dropped 3.6% — while Goldman Sachs rose ~3% on strong equity trading revenue. JPMorgan and Wells Fargo were mixed. Microsoft hit a record close. Johnson & Johnson sank ~6%. After hours, Bank of America moved lower following its results.
EU — The Stoxx 600 closed down 0.1% at 635.01 on Tuesday, erasing gains of as much as 0.7% as tech stocks sold off late in the session. ASML fell 4.2% and ASM International dropped 6.3%, leading the tech subindex down 1.6%. On the positive side, Givaudan surged 9.4% after posting stronger-than-expected growth, and BP advanced 3.7% on guidance flagging a cut in capital expenditure. The DAX closed marginally lower at 25,259.90, weighed by Siemens Energy (-2.5%) and sticky German inflation data.
Asia — Asian markets were hit hard on Tuesday by the global AI and semiconductor selloff. The Kospi plunged 5.5% at the close (down as much as 7% intraday), with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix falling ~7% and ~10% respectively — the worst session in 21 months. The Nikkei 225 and Taiwan's Taiex both fell ~2%. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 1.6%, its weakest close since August. Hang Seng and HK markets were also under pressure from the tech rout. The STI was softer. Smoore International fell as much as 16% in HK on VAT rebate cut concerns, and Man Wah Holdings dropped ~14% after flagging a 70–90% profit decline. Futures for Japan and Korea are pointing higher this morning, with analysts flagging Tuesday's Kospi move as a potential capitulation event.

Earnings this week:

Wednesday: ASML, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, State Street
Thursday: Alcoa, Charles Schwab, Interactive Brokers, Prologis, Bank of New York Mellon, US Bancorp, PNC Financial, TSMC

FX:

USD slipped 0.2% after four days of gains, as a global bond rally pushed the 10-year Treasury yield down to 5.22% and Brent crude fell toward $105/bbl.
AUD closed 0.4% higher in New York, supported by falling oil prices and improved risk sentiment from the bond rally, though it has broadly stabilized over the past two weeks following the RBA's rate hike.
JPY gained against the USD but lagged G10 peers. JPY was the laggard among G10 gainers, with USDJPY still elevated at 158.33.
USDTWD surged 0.74% to 32.158 — the Taiwan dollar's largest single-day drop since June 2025 — driven by a sharp selloff in AI-linked equities following a technology breakthrough announcement by Chinese chipmaker CXMT Corp.
USDKRW rose 0.49% to 1,342, with the won weakening alongside a Kospi selloff tied to the same AI equity theme.

Commodities:

Brent crude fell ~1.9% to around $104.64/bbl, pulling back from recent highs near $106, as markets weighed resilient Middle East supply flows against ongoing Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure. The Brent-WTI spread remains wide at ~$13, near the widest in over a decade. WTI extended its rally overnight and is trading higher this morning. OPEC cut its demand growth forecast again.
Gold traded near $4,160–$4,208/oz, holding a modtreaest loss as Middle East tensions stoked inflation fears and kept rate hike expectations elevated. Technical resistance remains firm at $4,300/oz, with support seen at $4,150/oz.

Fixed income:

The long end rallied, with the 10-year yield falling ~2.7bps to 5.215% and the 30-year dropping ~3.7bps to 5.563%, supported by haven demand from the equity selloff and lower oil prices. The 2s10s curve flattened ~3bps.
Bearish bond bets dominated options markets ahead of CPI, with standout trades targeting further selloffs in longer maturities. Separately, a buyer of long-bond call spreads targeted a 30-year yield move down to ~5.3%. Asset managers have been deleveraging long-duration Treasury futures positions in recent weeks.
Eurozone yields fell in tandem with Treasuries. French fiscal and political stress remains a key overhang — a record 56% of European fund managers surveyed by BofA said they would underweight French equities over the next 12 months, with OAT-Bund spreads remaining elevated. The IMF's warning on surging yields added to the cautious tone across global government bond markets.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.
The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

Asia Market Quick Take – 01 October, 2026

Thu, 01 Oct 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 01 October 2026

Key points:

Macro: Headline and Core PCE came in cooler than expected
Equities: Tech outperformed, industrials lagged; Micron flat despite blow out earnings
FX: AUDUSD under selling pressure near two month low
Commodities: Gold drops 6% in September, its worst month since June
Fixed income: US 30-year yield hits 24-year high; 10-year hits 5.3%

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

US PCE inflation rose 0.3% month-over-month in August 2026, after a revised 0.1% gain in July and below the 0.4% forecast. Goods prices climbed 0.3%, led by a 4.4% jump in gasoline and other energy, while services rose 0.3%. Core PCE increased 0.2%, under the 0.3% expectation. Year-on-year, headline PCE stayed at 3.4% and core at 3.0%, both still above the Fed’s 2% target.
US GDP grew at a 2.2% annualized rate in Q2 2026, revised up on stronger investment, consumer, and government spending, led by nonresidential structures such as data centers.
Germany’s annual inflation rose to 3.3% in September 2026, the highest since December 2023 and above expectations, driven mainly by a surge in energy prices. Core inflation stayed at 2.4%, and the EU-harmonized rate also reached 3.3%, above the ECB’s 2% target.
US personal consumption expenditures rose 0.9% in August 2026, the strongest since March and above expectations, with broad increases in goods and services. Personal income rose 0.2%, disposable income 0.3%, and real consumer spending 0.6%.

Equities:

US — US equities closed mixed on Wednesday, capping the S&P 500's worst month since June. S&P 500 fell 0.3% to 7,651.54 and Dow Jones dropped 0.9% to 50,906.05, while the Nasdaq rose 0.2% to 26,861.06. Jabil was the largest single-stock decliner, falling 10.0%, while Meta led the S&P 500 lower, down 1.8%. Financials fell 1.2% for a third straight session. In after-hours trading, Alphabet rose ~1.7% after Google announced a new product, while Micron wavered despite a strong earnings beat, losing initial gains to close +0.37%. S&P 500 futures rose 0.5% in early Asian trading on Thursday.
EU — European equities posted their worst month since March, with the Stoxx 600 falling 0.5% on Wednesday to 634.89, down 2.5% for September. The DAX fell 0.8% to 25,199.19, the FTSE 100 dropped 0.3% to 10,606.00, and the SMI declined 0.6%. Siemens was the largest drag on the Stoxx 600, falling 2.3%, while AT&S Austria had the largest single-stock drop at -7.2%. Commerzbank fell 4.0% in Frankfurt. Kongsberg was a notable outperformer, rising ~5.6% after signing a NOK 10 billion NASAMS contract with Belgium.
Asia — Asian markets are trading mixed at the open on Thursday. The Nikkei 225 rose ~1% to 67,425.65 in early trade, supported by a rebound in chip-related names following Micron's upbeat outlook. The Kospi opened 0.3% lower at 6,814.49. The STI fell 0.7% on Wednesday to 5,675.88, its second consecutive session of losses, with Venture Corp the worst performer among blue chips. Hong Kong markets are closed today for the National Day holiday. On Wednesday, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index gained 0.6%. New World Development reported a FY net loss of HK$28.15 billion, widening sharply from HK$16.3 billion a year earlier, with revenue of HK$19.99 billion missing the HK$26.58 billion estimate. Asian chip stocks are in focus following Micron's results.

Earnings and events this week:

Thursday: Nike
Friday: No major earnings expected; focus shifts to the September Non-Farm Payrolls report.

FX:

The yen was the standout performer in September, gaining ~1.8% vs. the dollar for its best month on a trade-weighted basis since the carry trade unwind in July 2024. However, it weakened back to 157.58 per dollar on Thursday morning after the BOJ released its September meeting summary, which offered no new hawkish signals.

Sterling outperformed G10 peers on Wednesday, rising ~0.3% vs. the dollar after UK Q2 GDP was revised higher. UK PM Andy Burnham's suggestion he could campaign to rejoin the EU at the next general election also provided modest support.
The Australian dollar underperformed G10 peers after Australian CPI rose less than expected, reducing expectations for near-term RBA tightening. AUDUSD consolidates near a two-month low below 0.6950.
The Mexican peso was the world's worst-performing major currency in September, falling ~6% as carry traders fled. Societe Generale, Morgan Stanley and Banco Base all cut their year-end peso forecasts.

Commodities:

WTI traded near $90 a barrel and Brent near $98 as of Thursday morning, steadying after a 1.2% gain on Wednesday. Uncertainty persists over whether the recovery in Middle East flows can be sustained following a tanker strike in the Strait of Hormuz. European natural gas futures rose as much as 4.7% on Wednesday on the tanker incident and increased German stockpiling activity.
Gold closed Q3 at $4,155.60 per ounce, up 3.3% for the quarter but down 6.2% in September — its worst month since June. The metal found some support from the softer-than-expected core PCE print, with bullion trading around $4,155 in early Thursday Asian trade. ETFs added gold holdings for five consecutive days heading into month-end.
Deutsche Bank forecast copper could surge more than 50% to $22,050 per tonne within six months on a "copper crunch" driven by shrinking stockpiles. Separately, Chinese lithium carbonate futures plunged ~25% in September, falling below 120,000 yuan per tonne from over 160,000 yuan at the start of the month, on concerns over flagging EV battery demand.

Fixed income:

The 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5.639% on Wednesday, the highest since 2002, as resilient US consumer spending and heavy corporate supply (including a $30 billion eight-part deal from Paramount) overwhelmed the relief from the softer PCE print. The 10-year yield rose to hit 5.3%.
The France-Germany 10-year spread widened to 120 basis points for the first time since 2012, as investors positioned for political uncertainty and the risk of a populist government loosening fiscal policy ahead of next year's elections.
The Bank of England warned that elevated hedge fund leverage in gilts raises the risk of stress crystallising across markets simultaneously. The UK 10-year yield is near levels last seen during the 2008 financial crisis, and 30-year gilt yields are approaching 6%, the highest since 1998.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

Gold faces a bond-market stress test as yields continue to rise

Thu, 24 Sep 2026 10:00:00 Z

Key Points:

Gold faces an increasingly hostile macro backdrop, with US Treasury yields, real yields and the dollar all rising as markets price inflation risks and tighter Fed policy.
Higher yields remain a near-term headwind, but also raise longer-term financial risks, as elevated borrowing costs increase pressure on governments, companies and other leveraged parts of the financial system.
Investment demand remains surprisingly resilient, with Bloomberg data showing global gold ETF holdings rising by almost 50 tonnes so far in September despite the jump in real yields.
Chinese demand remains exceptionally strong, with imports exceeding 1,000 tonnes through August, already surpassing the total for the whole of 2025.

Gold faces an increasingly hostile macro backdrop, with US Treasury yields, real yields and the dollar all rising as markets price inflation risks and tighter Fed policy. Higher yields remain a near-term headwind, but also raise longer-term financial risks, as elevated borrowing costs increase pressure on governments, companies and other leveraged parts of the financial system. Investment demand remains surprisingly resilient, with Bloomberg data showing global gold ETF holdings rising by almost 50 tonnes so far in September despite the jump in real yields. Chinese demand remains exceptionally strong, with imports exceeding 1,000 tonnes through August, already surpassing the total for the whole of 2025.

Gold, and with that the semi-precious investment metals like silver and platinum, are once again being tested by some of its traditional macro headwinds. The sharp repricing across the US Treasury curve since the start of the Iran war has accelerated in recent days, lifting nominal and real yields while supporting a renewed recovery in the dollar. For a non-interest-bearing asset such as gold, that combination would normally represent a powerful incentive for investors to reduce exposure.

The scale of the shift is notable. Since late February when the US and Israel started attacks on Iran, US 2- and 5-year Treasury yields have risen by around 150 basis points, while the Fed funds rate implied for December this year has moved from around 3% to 4.25%, and December 2027 from 2.8% to 4.8%. At the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed above 5.1%, while the 10-year US real yield has jumped to around 2.78%, an 18-year high. Adding to the pressure, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index trades up around 1.5% this month, clawing back part of its August decline.

US yield curve shift - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Taken together, these developments create a challenging near-term environment for investment metals. Higher real yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, while a stronger dollar raises the cost for buyers outside the US. The latest move therefore helps explain why gold, currently trading near USD 4,262 an ounce, is down around 4% this month.

The pressure has been even more pronounced among gold-mining equities, which have had to contend with the combination of weaker bullion prices, broader equity-market weakness and rising operating costs. Diesel is a particularly important input for mining operations, and the surge in fuel prices has increased concerns about margin pressure, especially among smaller and more energy-intensive producers. Against this backdrop, the VanEck Gold Miners ETF has fallen around 3% (YTD: 7.9%) over the past two sessions (23 to 24 September), while the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF is down around 3.5% (YTD: +5.3%), highlighting the additional operating and equity-market leverage embedded in mining shares compared with physical gold.

However, the decline needs to be put into perspective. Gold remains comfortably above the June-July lows near USD 4,000, despite a substantial deterioration in its traditional macro drivers. More importantly, there has so far been little evidence of the kind of investor liquidation that would normally accompany such a sharp rise in real yields.

That resilience is perhaps the most interesting part of the current gold story. According to Bloomberg data, total holdings in gold-backed ETFs have risen by almost 50 tonnes so far this month. This continued accumulation suggests that a growing share of gold demand is being driven by investors who are less sensitive to the traditional opportunity-cost argument. Instead, their focus appears increasingly centred on wealth preservation, geopolitical uncertainty, fiscal sustainability and the desire to hold an asset outside the conventional financial system.

China provides another important example. Recently published data showed Chinese gold demand exceeding 1,000 tonnes during the first eight months of 2026, already surpassing the amount recorded during the whole of 2025. Together with continued central-bank buying, this highlights another important source of demand that is relatively insensitive to short-term fluctuations in US interest rates.

These flows underline the increasingly important distinction between rate-sensitive and non-rate-sensitive gold demand. For the former, the current environment is becoming increasingly difficult. For the latter, however, the very forces pushing yields higher may reinforce the argument for owning gold.

This creates something of a paradox. In the short term, rising bond yields and a stronger dollar are clear headwinds and could force gold lower. But the higher yields rise, particularly at the long end of the US curve, the greater the risk that something eventually breaks. Higher funding costs increase pressure on heavily indebted governments, companies and consumers, while also raising questions about the sustainability of fiscal deficits and the amount of government debt investors are being asked to absorb.

The weak USD 70 billion 5-year Treasury auction on 23 September offered another reminder of that challenge. Investors demanded additional yield to absorb the supply, reinforcing concerns that an increasingly indebted US government may have to pay progressively more to attract capital. Gold therefore finds itself caught between the immediate negative impact of higher yields and the longer-term financial and fiscal risks those same yields may create. In today's auction calendar we find the sale of USD 44 billion 7-year Treasury notes.

Spot gold - Source: Saxo Note: Past performance is no guarantee for future returns

For now, price action will determine which force dominates. Gold's recent support low around USD 4,235 is the first level to watch. A break could expose the market to a deeper correction and potentially renewed focus on the June-July area around USD 4,000. Conversely, an ability to withstand the current onslaught from rising yields and dollar strength would underline the underlying resilience of demand.

The coming sessions therefore represent an important test. Gold may struggle while yields and the dollar continue higher, but the absence of meaningful ETF liquidation and exceptionally strong Chinese demand suggest investors are not abandoning the metal. Instead, some appear to be buying gold precisely because the financial stresses reflected in today's bond market are becoming harder to ignore.

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Asia Market Quick Take – 22 September, 2026

Tue, 22 Sep 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 22 September, 2026

Key points:

Macro: Trump to address UN and meet other world leaders including Xi
Equities: Nasdaq Composite +2.2% for a record close as chip stocks rally
FX: USD higher for the 5^th straight session
Commodities: Oil down for 4^th session. Copper nears record levels
Fixed income: Long end Treasury yields rally and yield curve flattens

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

Trump will address the UN today and may meet Iran’s President Pezeshkian, other Gulf leaders, and China’s Xi, as the US proposes a $5bn Middle East reconstruction fund. Saudi crude flows through Hormuz have reached about 2.9mn bpd in the past six days, with tanker capacity at its Gulf terminals at the highest since at least June.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index slipped to -0.04 in August 2026 from +0.08 in July, signaling slightly softer growth as production and sales/orders weakened, while employment, consumption, and housing improved modestly. The three-month average edged up to +0.01 from -0.01.

Equities:

US — US equities posted their best session since early August on Monday, driven by a surge in AI-related technology stocks. S&P 500 rose 1.5% to 7,764.70, the Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.3% to 27,122.09 — a record close and its 21st of 2026 — while the Dow gained 0.7% to 52,048.83. Meta surged 11% after early signs of success for its Muse AI agent, AMD climbed 10% crossing a $1 trillion market cap for the first time, Intel jumped 12%, and Akamai rose 12.3%. Energy was the standout decliner as oil prices fell. After hours, Vicor jumped 13% after raising Q3 revenue growth guidance to over 20% quarter-on-quarter, citing royalties from a new patent licence.
EU — European equities rebounded sharply on Monday, with the Stoxx Europe 600 rising 1.0% to 641.93 — its biggest gain since 2 July — as cooling oil and gas prices eased inflation concerns and optimism around the US-China summit lifted risk appetite. The DAX gained 1.1% to 25,575.01, the FTSE 100 rose 0.7% to 10,739.01, the Euro Stoxx 50 climbed 1.3% to 6,318.20, and the SMI advanced 1.2% to 13,956.58. ASML led the Stoxx 600 higher, rising 2.5%, while Soitec surged 9.8%. Societe Generale gained as much as 4.9% after raising its 2029 return on tangible equity target to 13–14% and flagging up to €600 million in AI-driven cost savings. Novo Nordisk fell as much as 7.7% after its capital markets day disappointed investors seeking more concrete turnaround targets.
Asia — Asian equities advanced broadly on Monday, led by chipmakers, as easing oil prices and Japan's markets were closed for a public holiday. Hang Seng Index rose 1.2% to 25,042.71, with Alibaba gaining 3.0% and Sino Biopharmaceutical surging 8.2%; mainland investors bought a net HK$4.07 billion via Stock Connect, the 11th consecutive day of net purchases. The Kospi surged 1.6% on Monday to 7,007.72, led by Samsung Electronics (+5.0%), and has extended gains at Tuesday's open, rising a further 2.2% to 7,161.61 as the SOX Index's 4.3% overnight gain fuels chip enthusiasm. The STI closed up 0.3% to 5,675.23. Tongcheng Travel fell as much as 7.1% in Hong Kong after a regulator opened a probe into its subsidiary over suspected unfair competition practices. Ligent Technologies, an AI optical transceiver maker, debuted in Hong Kong on Tuesday after raising HK$5.7 billion in its IPO, with shares rising as much as 8.9% in grey market trading.

Earnings this week:

Tuesday: AutoZone (Q4 2026), KB Home (Q3 2026), Worthington Enterprises (Q1 2027)
Wednesday: Cintas (Q1 2027), General Mills (Q1 2027)
Thursday: Darden Restaurants (Q1 2027), Costco Wholesale (Q4 2026, after market), H&M, BlackBerry

Key Events:

Thursday: Trump-Xi Summit

FX:

Dollar broadly firm: The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edged higher on Monday, rising for a fifth time in six sessions, as Fed officials Goolsbee and Musalem both signalled further rate hikes are likely. Most G10 currencies declined against the dollar.
Yen underperforms: USD/JPY held around 157.36, with the yen remaining vulnerable after the BOJ disappointed markets last Friday by not offering stronger guidance on the pace of future hikes. Thin liquidity due to Japan's public holiday on Monday amplified the yen's fragility.
Korean won outperforms: USD/KRW fell as much as 1.2% to 1,370.50 on Monday — the biggest move since 7 September — as South Korea's early-September exports hit a record on semiconductor demand. The won was the best-performing major Asian currency on the day.
EM currencies gain: Emerging market currencies rose broadly, supported by falling oil prices and positive US-China trade talk signals.

Commodities:

Brent crude fell for a fourth consecutive day on Monday, dropping around 2% to approximately $101.80 per barrel, as signs emerged that Saudi Arabia is moving to restore capacity on its East-West pipeline following last week's drone strikes, and as diplomatic efforts to end the US-Iran war progressed. Brent is now sitting just above $100.34, on track for its longest losing streak since mid-June. WTI trades at $95.95.
Gold futures trade at $4,370.60 per troy ounce, up approximately 0.5% on the session, as the metal continues to benefit from geopolitical uncertainty and elevated inflation concerns, despite a firmer dollar. Gold was down 0.9% on Monday's session per intraday data, reflecting some profit-taking as oil-driven risk appetite returned.
Copper futures trade at 668.65 USd/lb (approximately $14,730/tonne), remaining elevated near multi-year highs driven by AI data centre buildout demand and ongoing tariff speculation. The metal has gained approximately 17% year-to-date, underpinned by structural supply-demand tightness.

Fixed income:

US Treasuries rallied from the belly outward on Monday, with the 10-year yield falling approximately 4bps to 4.953% and the 30-year declining around 4bps to 5.286%, as lower oil prices eased inflation concerns. The move was supported by a simultaneous rally in European bonds, with German 10-year yields posting their biggest single-day drop in four months. The front end lagged, leaving the 2s10s spread at fresh lows since early March.
The 2-year yield holds at 4.751%, near its highest level since 2023, as markets continue to price in additional Fed tightening — futures are pricing approximately 80bps of further hikes. Treasury trading volumes surged 14% in the week ending 18 September to $6.19 trillion, with 2-year note volume up 29%, reflecting intense positioning activity around the Fed's rate path.
Scope Ratings downgraded France's credit score, with the government projecting debt rising to 121.7% of GDP in 2027. The French 10-year OAT yield stands at 4.56%, approximately 104 basis points over German Bunds, with the spread driven wider by concerns over France's ability to consolidate its budget deficit ahead of the presidential election cycle.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

Asia Market Quick Take – 18 September, 2026

Fri, 18 Sep 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 18 September 2026

Key points:

Macro: BoE holds rates at 3.75%; warns of hikes if inflation rises
Equities: Chips lead equities with SMH up 3.1%
FX: AUDUSD firms to 0.7120 on hawkish RBA expectations
Commodities: Oil drops further as Saudi restores pipeline
Fixed income: US yields break 8-day rise, down 9bps

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

The BoE kept rates at 3.75% in a 6–3 vote but warned they could rise if Middle East tensions stoke inflation. Governor Bailey said the energy shock’s impact is so far limited but prolonged volatility could increase inflation risks.
Eurozone inflation rose to 3.2% in August 2026, near a 2½-year high and above the ECB’s 2% target, driven by a 14.3% jump in energy. Core inflation edged down to 2.4% and services inflation to 3.0%. Inflation picked up in Germany, France, Spain, and Italy, but eased slightly in the Netherlands.
Canada’s producer prices rose 1.3% m/m in August 2026, up from 0.3% in July and versus expectations for no change. Energy and petroleum prices gained 4%, led by refined products, while PPI excluding energy rose 0.8%. Non‑ferrous metals (+4.4%) and chemicals (+2.8%) also rebounded, boosted by unwrought precious metals and plastic resins.
Saudi Arabia is rerouting crude via ship-to-ship transfers near Oman’s Sohar to offset a key pipeline shutdown, cutting tankers’ exposure to Iranian attacks. It expects to restore about half of the East-West pipeline’s capacity within days and full flows in six weeks. Ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman have risen to 2.7 million bpd from 1.5 million bpd in August.
US jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 196,000 in mid‑September, near July’s 60‑year low and below the 208,000 forecast. Continuing claims dropped to 1.73 million, the lowest since January 2024, highlighting labor market resilience. Federal employee claims edged up to 398 but remain historically low.
The US House passed a bipartisan bill imposing economic sanctions on Russia via tariffs in a 262-159 vote. The bill is expected to be signed by President Trump.

Equities:

US (Thursday close): US equities posted their best session in six weeks on Thursday, with the S&P 500 rising 1.1% to 7,637.76, the Nasdaq 100 climbing 1.7% to 29,447, and the Dow Jones gaining 0.6% to 51,778. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 3.1%, led by Nvidia (+~2.5%) after CEO Jensen Huang said the company expects to sell twice as many chips next year. Berkshire Hathaway was a notable laggard, weighing on financials. In after-hours trading, Steel Dynamics fell 3.4% and Nucor dropped 3.7% after both steel producers issued Q3 EPS guidance below consensus estimates. Intuit reported in-line Q1 revenue guidance of $4.29–4.31bn.
EU (Thursday close): European equities advanced for a second consecutive session, buoyed by the Fed's inflation-fighting commitment and a pullback in oil. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.9% to 642.60, the DAX gained 0.7% to 25,717, the CAC 40 added 0.6% to 8,187, and the FTSE 100 climbed 1.2% to 10,816 after the BoE held rates. ASML led the Stoxx 600 higher, while Allegro.eu surged 9.5% to a 52-week high. Man Group rose as much as 6% after a UBS upgrade. Raiffeisen Bank was among the notable decliners. The OMX Stockholm 30 rose 1.3%, led by Swedbank (+2.6%) and Boliden (+3.3%).
Asia (Friday open): Asian equities are tracking Wall Street's rally, supported by lower oil prices and cooling Treasury yields. The Kospi opened sharply higher, rising 2.5% to 6,886 at the open, driven by Korean memory chipmakers on the back of Nvidia's bullish chip demand outlook. The Nikkei 225 is trading around 64,136, with attention focused on the BOJ rate decision due later today — a 25bp hike to 1.25% is fully priced in, though markets are watching Governor Ueda's press conference for forward guidance. The Hang Seng closed Thursday at 24,604 (-0.4%), weighed by Tencent (-1.7%) and Laopu Gold (-3.0%), though mainland investors bought a net HK$3.36bn via Stock Connect for a ninth consecutive session. Huawei announced over 10 new AI chipsets at its annual summit in Shanghai, accelerating the launch of its Ascend 960DT chip to Q1 2027.

Earnings this week:

FX:

The dollar stayed firm post‑Fed, keeping USDJPY elevated around 156.2 (with Citi eyeing upside toward 159 if the BOJ disappoints), weighing on EURUSD near 1.148 amid weaker French OATs and political risk, and pushing GBPUSD down to 1.336 after leading G10 losses despite some short covering post‑BoE; in contrast, AUDUSD firmed to about 0.712 on hawkish RBA expectations, while USDCNH held steady around 6.70, supported by the PBOC fix and continued northbound Stock Connect inflows.

Commodities:

Oil fell for a third day, with Brent near $104.8/bbl and WTI around $101.2, as Saudi plans to restore about half of its East-West pipeline capacity and easing Middle East risks unwind the recent price premium. Gold jumped to about $4,346/oz after spiking to $4,380, helped by lower Treasury yields and a softer dollar post-Fed. Copper remains volatile as traders await a US decision on refined copper tariffs, keeping pressure on names like Freeport-McMoRan and Southern Copper after LME prices previously hit a record $14,617/ton on tariff bets.

Fixed income:

US Treasury yields snapped an eight-day rise Thursday, with the 10-year down about 9 bps to 4.93%, the 30-year at 5.29% and the 1-year at 4.38%, helped by weaker oil and the BoE’s hold boosting gilts and Treasuries. A $19bn 10-year TIPS auction tailed at 2.653%, the highest since 2008 and ~2 bps above WI, with softer indirect demand. A Bloomberg survey shows over 60% of respondents expect the 10-year above 5% by end-2026 (median 5.1%); KKR lifted its year-end target to 5.1%, and Jeffrey Gundlach warned a future US recession could spark a fiscal-driven surge in long yields.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.
The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

10 energy stocks and ETFs to watch in 2026

Thu, 17 Sep 2026 11:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Energy has been a standout in 2026: higher oil and gas prices, tighter supply and geopolitical risk have supported strong cash flows, dividends and share buybacks across the sector.
After the rally, quality matters more: commodity prices can lift almost every producer, but strong balance sheets, low production costs and disciplined spending become more important when conditions turn less supportive.
There is more than one way to get exposure: individual stocks can offer different mixes of income, valuation and commodity sensitivity, while energy ETFs can spread risk across companies and regions.

Energy has been one of the strongest parts of the market in 2026, supported by higher oil and gas prices, tighter supply and renewed geopolitical risk. For investors, the attraction is clear: many energy companies are generating strong cash flows, paying healthy dividends and returning capital through share buybacks.

But the sector also comes with an important catch. Energy profits are heavily influenced by commodity prices, which companies do not control. High oil prices can lift almost every producer, while a sharp fall can quickly pressure earnings, dividends and share prices. After a strong rally, valuation also matters more. Some companies still trade at relatively modest earnings multiples, while others now price in a more supportive environment.

The key is therefore to look beyond the oil price itself. Balance-sheet strength, low production costs, disciplined spending and sustainable dividends matter more over a full cycle. Diversified energy ETFs can also reduce the risk of relying too heavily on one company or region.

Energy can still offer income, inflation protection and exposure to global demand. But after such a strong run, investors should focus less on chasing the theme and more on identifying which businesses can still perform when conditions become less favourable.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

For more inspiration, explore our Oil and Gas Majors shortlist.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Theme - Oil and gas majors ESMA Products NOT Mentioned ETFs

One crypto selloff, three very different businesses

Wed, 16 Sep 2026 11:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Coinbase is most exposed to clearer market rules because trading and crypto participation directly affect its business.
Circle Internet Group already has more regulatory clarity around its core product, while USDC adoption and interest rates matter heavily for its economics.
Strategy Inc is mainly a Bitcoin exposure, making Bitcoin and its capital structure more important than exchange regulation.

On 15 September, the United States Senate failed to advance the Digital Asset Market Clarity, or CLARITY, Act. The bill would divide oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission and create federal rules for digital-asset intermediaries. It did not secure the 60 votes needed to proceed.

Bitcoin fell, while Coinbase dropped around 10%, Circle around 11% and Strategy around 5%. The market reaction looked similar, but the businesses behind those moves are very different.

Coinbase: the toll road

Coinbase runs a crypto exchange and financial platform. Trading remains important, but it is expanding into derivatives, stablecoins and payments.

That makes CLARITY particularly relevant. In the second quarter, Coinbase reached record crypto trading market share, while average USD Coin, or USDC, held across its products reached 20 billion USD.

Clearer rules could affect what can trade, how platforms register and how comfortable institutions feel participating. For Coinbase, regulation can change both the road and the toll.

Circle: the digital-dollar business

Circle’s main product is USDC, a digital token designed to stay worth one US dollar. The bigger USDC becomes, the more assets Circle holds in reserve to back it, and those reserves can generate interest income.

That makes Circle less dependent on crypto trading than Coinbase. Its key drivers are USDC adoption and interest rates. In simple terms, more USDC in circulation can expand the income base, while higher rates increase what those reserves can earn. Lower rates work the other way.

Strategically, that gives Circle a different exposure to the crypto ecosystem. It benefits from wider use of digital dollars, not just rising token prices or more speculative trading.

Strategy: Bitcoin with a corporate wrapper

Strategy still owns a software business, but its investment case is dominated by its Bitcoin treasury and the financing used to build it.

At the end of July, Strategy held more than 843,000 Bitcoin, alongside billions of dollars of debt and preferred shares. The key question is less whether CLARITY helps Strategy directly, and more what regulation does to Bitcoin demand and price.

Risks

Coinbase is sensitive to trading activity and regulation. Circle depends on stablecoin adoption and interest rates. Strategy carries the most direct Bitcoin-price exposure, alongside financing and dilution risk.

The same crypto downturn can therefore reach each business through a different door.

Investor playbook

Ask what actually generates revenue: trading, interest income, software or crypto exposure.
Identify the key driver: regulation, Bitcoin, interest rates or trading activity.
Compare balance sheets and funding needs, not just share-price correlation.
Ask whether the business creates value if crypto prices stop rising.

Clarity starts before Congress

Coinbase, Circle and Strategy fell on the same headline, but investors are not buying the same economics. Coinbase is building crypto-market infrastructure. Circle is building around digital dollars. Strategy is mainly a listed Bitcoin treasury.

Congress may eventually provide more clarity. Investors do not need to wait. Before buying a “crypto stock”, the useful question is simpler: what business do I actually own?

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Theme - Crypto and blockchain

Asia Market Quick Take – 16 September 2026

Wed, 16 Sep 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 16 September, 2026

Key points:

Macro: Saudi cancels September shipments after East-West pipeline shuts
Equities: Coinbase and Circle fell more than 10% after Clarity Act failed to clear Senate
FX: Dollar firms into tonight’s FOMC meeting, with a 25bp hike largely priced
Commodities: US 10-year Treasuries at 2007 highs
Fixed income: WTI up 4.4%, highest close since mid-May

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

Saudi Arabia cancelled some September shipments after drone attacks shut its East-West pipeline, with no restart timeline amid renewed Houthi strikes. In Libya, oil output was hit by field and station shutdowns due to protests. Russia struck Kyiv fuel stations and Ukraine hit a Russian refinery, despite Trump’s claim of a mutual halt on energy attacks.
The UK jobless rate held at 4.9% in the three months to July 2026, defying forecasts of 5.0%. Unemployment rose slightly to 1.78 million, while employment increased by 66,000 to 34.48 million, driven by more full-time jobs. The inactivity rate edged down to 20.9%.
Germany’s wholesale prices rose 6.8% year-on-year in August 2026, up from 5.3% and the fastest since February 2023, driven by higher energy and raw material costs. Mineral oil products jumped 36.1% and metals 27.4%, while several food categories fell. Month-on-month, prices climbed 0.9%, the quickest in four months and above expectations.
Japan’s exports jumped 19.3% year-on-year to JPY 10,048.4 billion in August 2026, beating forecasts of 18.2%, marking a 12th month of growth on a weaker yen and strong AI-chip demand, despite Middle East-related supply chain risks.
Japan’s core machinery orders fell 3.7% m/m to JPY 1,016.9 billion in July 2026, the fourth drop this year and worse than the expected 2.8% decline, with both manufacturing and non-manufacturing orders weaker. Year-on-year, orders rose 11.2%, below the 15.3% forecast and down from 16.9%.
The Empire State Manufacturing Index fell to 7.6 in September 2026 from 20.6 in August, below expectations of 14.75, signaling softer activity. New orders were flat, shipments slipped, supply conditions worsened, and price pressures rose, but firms stayed optimistic, with the future conditions index at 29.

Equities:

US — US equities fell on Tuesday as elevated oil prices pushed Treasury yields to multi-decade highs, dampening risk appetite. The S&P 500 closed down 0.45% at 7,585.73, the Dow fell 0.63% to 52,093.11, and the Nasdaq 100 declined 0.65% to 28,937.84. Among Magnificent Seven names, Alphabet and Microsoft led losses, each down over 1% in premarket. The Senate failed to advance the Clarity Act, with the measure falling short in a 50-49 vote. Following the outcome, Coinbase shares declined 10%, while Circle Internet dropped 11%.
EU — European equities fell on Tuesday, weighed by rising bond yields and elevated oil prices. The Stoxx Europe 600 dropped 0.3% to 634.18, its lowest close since June 12, with banks leading the decline. The FTSE 100 fell 0.4% to 10,658.13, led lower by HSBC (-2.2%) and London Stock Exchange Group (-3.2%). The DAX declined 0.2% to 25,402.28, with Zalando the largest faller at -3.7%. LVMH dropped 2.6%, losing its position as France's most valuable company and exiting Europe's top 10 by market cap. Lanxess fell 5.9% in the Stoxx 600. Grupa Kety was the top riser, up 9.9% after announcing a €645 million acquisition.
Asia — Asian equities are broadly steady this morning as markets await the Fed decision, with the MSCI Asia index up 0.1%. Hang Seng fell 1.0% on Tuesday to 24,667.24, its lowest close since July 17, led by HSBC (-3.2%) and CATL (-6.0%), with all sectors declining. The Nikkei 225 closed virtually flat on Tuesday at 63,484.10, as AI-related rebounds offset pressure from elevated oil and BOJ rate decision caution ahead of Friday's meeting; the index is down 0.07% this morning at 63,415.20. The Kospi is up 0.10% this morning at 6,634.09, recovering from a 0.9% decline on Tuesday driven by semiconductor weakness — SK Hynix and Samsung fell over 4% on Monday on AI slowdown concerns. Guangzhou Auto surged 16% in Hong Kong on Monday after a joint asset deal with FAW Group. Chinese AI chip stocks rallied on Tuesday after Beijing unveiled a five-year electronics industry plan supporting semiconductors and advanced computing.

Events this week:

Wednesday: FOMC rate decision
Thursday: BOE rate decision
Friday: BOJ rate decision

FX:

USD is modestly firmer ahead of tonight’s Fed decision, with a 25bp hike almost fully priced and TD flagging scope for a knee‑jerk USD dip on an “as‑expected” outcome.
EURUSD under pressure: The pair fell below its 100-day moving average at 1.1556 on Monday and has held below it since, with the 55-DMA at 1.1521 acting as near-term support. A close below that level opens the path toward 1.14.
USDJPY touched as high as 155.43 overnight. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the recent coordinated yen intervention as "nominal" and framed a stronger yen as beneficial for US exports.
The PBOC strengthened the yuan fixing for a fifth consecutive day, reportedly aiming to offset dollar gains ahead of an expected Trump-Xi summit later this month. USDCNY is flat on the day at 6.7117.
GBP volatility measures are near record lows, which some traders flag as a warning sign of complacency ahead of Prime Minister Andy Burnham's first Budget.

Commodities:

Brent crude settled around $109/bbl on Tuesday, extending September gains to nearly 20%, after talks to establish a temporary shipping lane through the Strait of Hormuz were reportedly postponed. WTI settled up 4.4% on Tuesday at its highest level since mid-May. This morning, Brent is slightly lower at $108.08 (-0.62%) and WTI at $105.12 (-0.67%) as some risk premium is pared back.
Gold spot is at $4,283.48/oz, down 0.20% this morning, as a stronger dollar and rising real yields weigh on the precious metal. The gold-oil divergence has widened notably this month — Brent's surge has been accompanied by softer gold, higher yields, and a firmer dollar, echoing cross-asset dynamics seen during the early stages of the Iran conflict in March.

Fixed income:

The 10-year Treasury yield rose as high as 5.04% on Tuesday before closing at 5.00%, the highest level since 2007. This morning the 10-year is at 4.99%, with the 30-year at 5.36%. The move is driven by a combination of surging oil prices, persistent inflation, swelling fiscal deficits, and positioning ahead of today's expected Fed rate hike.
The 5s30s spread widened to 53.6bps from 52.3bps at the prior close, with the long end underperforming following the weak 20-year auction. The 2-year yield stands at 4.65%, with bond traders positioned in extreme short territory ahead of the Fed, betting the selloff continues.
The global bond selloff is broadening. The German 10-year Bund yield is at 3.54% and the Japanese 10-year JGB yield is at 3.05%, both at multi-year highs. JGB futures fell 34 ticks overnight, tracking US Treasuries lower, with additional pressure from BOJ rate decision uncertainty ahead of Friday.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

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The AI race hits the brakes: what changes for investors?

Tue, 15 Sep 2026 09:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Slower frontier development could shift AI spending from training bigger models towards deploying, securing and using existing ones.
Hardware faces the biggest question because valuations assume computing demand keeps expanding quickly.
Tougher safety requirements could unintentionally strengthen today’s largest AI laboratories by raising the cost of competing.

For the past few years, the artificial intelligence race has followed a simple rule: bigger models, more computing power, faster development. Now some of the people leading that race are asking whether everyone should slow down.

Anthropic chief executive Dario Amodei has called for companies to pace improvements in frontier AI capabilities so safety systems have time to catch up. OpenAI chief scientist Jakub Pachocki says no laboratory has solved safety well enough to keep scaling at maximum speed indefinitely.

The obvious question is whether this threatens the AI boom. The more interesting answer is that it may simply change where the money goes.

Slower models, not slower AI

The key distinction is between building the next frontier model and using the models we already have.

Amodei is not proposing that AI development stops. His idea of “pacing” means allowing more time for testing, monitoring and safeguards before capabilities move another large step forward. OpenAI has already temporarily slowed scaling when one upcoming model approached critical cybersecurity capabilities.

That matters because AI spending extends far beyond training.

Companies need computing power to run models, a process known as inference. Businesses need software to integrate them into workflows. They need cybersecurity to control them, data systems to feed them information and applications that turn intelligence into something customers will actually pay for.

In simple terms, the AI value chain may move from:

training → inference → applications → security → deployment

A slower first step does not necessarily shrink everything that follows. In fact, businesses have barely begun extracting value from the capabilities already available. The investment question could therefore shift from “how quickly can we build a smarter model?” towards “how much economic value can we create from the models we already have?” For investors, that may be the healthier question.

The picks-and-shovels trade gets tested

The first phase of the AI boom rewarded the companies supplying scarce computing power. Graphics processing units, or GPUs, advanced memory, networking equipment, data centres and electricity all benefited from one powerful assumption: frontier AI would keep requiring substantially more computing power.

A slower frontier challenges the simplest version of that story. If the next generation of models arrives later, some training clusters could be delayed. That matters most for businesses whose growth expectations depend on capital spending continuing to accelerate almost automatically.

But training demand and AI demand are not the same thing. Existing models still require enormous amounts of computing power every time people use them. AI agents, enterprise adoption and scientific applications could increase inference demand even if new frontier models arrive less frequently.

This is why Monday’s market reaction may be more useful as a warning than as a verdict. Hardware companies face a new question about the pace of demand, while software and cybersecurity could gain more attention if the industry spends longer commercialising, monitoring and protecting existing AI systems.

The AI trade may be becoming less about one bottleneck and more about the entire stack.

Safety can become a moat

There is another, less obvious consequence. Slowing development sounds like a constraint on OpenAI and Anthropic. It could also strengthen their competitive position.

Imagine that developing frontier AI increasingly requires independent safety evaluators, sophisticated monitoring, heavily secured infrastructure and extensive testing before a model can be released.

Those measures cost money. OpenAI, Anthropic, Google and other well-funded laboratories can probably afford them. A smaller challenger may struggle. That creates an uncomfortable tension. Rules designed to make AI safer could also raise barriers to entry and make today’s leaders harder to challenge.

Then there is China. US laboratories can voluntarily pace development, but they cannot guarantee competitors elsewhere will do the same. Amodei acknowledges this directly, arguing that any slowdown must consider the technological gap between the United States and China.

That makes a permanent global pause difficult. Competitive pressure has not disappeared just because the safety debate has become louder.

The risks are on both sides

Investors should avoid extrapolating Monday’s sell-off too far. Frontier laboratories are discussing slowing the pace of capability advances, not abandoning AI. OpenAI still aims to build automated AI researchers, while Anthropic continues to argue that advanced AI could generate enormous economic and scientific benefits.

The opposite risk also matters. If voluntary restraint proves impossible because competitors keep pushing ahead, the current debate may lead mainly to more testing and regulation rather than materially slower computing demand.

The early signs to watch are therefore practical: delays to major training programmes, lower capital-spending plans from hyperscalers, slower orders for advanced chips, or evidence that spending is rotating towards inference, software and security.

Investor playbook

Separate training from usage. Slower frontier development does not automatically mean lower demand for every part of the AI ecosystem.
Watch capital spending. Hyperscaler budgets provide a better demand signal than headlines about whether one model launch is delayed.
Follow where revenue appears. Growing inference and software revenues would suggest AI is shifting from infrastructure build-out towards commercial use.
Mind concentration. A portfolio heavily exposed to one part of the AI stack becomes more sensitive when the industry’s spending priorities change.

From bigger to better

For several years, the AI race has largely been measured by one question: who can build the most powerful model next? Investors may increasingly need to ask another: who can make the most money from the intelligence we already have?

A slower frontier would challenge the simplest version of the AI trade, where ever-larger models automatically require ever-more chips, power and data centres. But it would not necessarily weaken AI itself. It could move the industry’s centre of gravity from creating intelligence towards deploying, securing and monetising it.

The first AI race was about building the biggest brain. The next may be about turning that brain into a sustainable business.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Theme - Artificial intelligence Artificial Intelligence

Europe wants champions again: is the age of the mega-merger returning?

Mon, 14 Sep 2026 11:35:00 Z

Key takeaways

Europe is rethinking whether greater corporate scale can strengthen its competitiveness against larger United States and Asian rivals.
Stock exchanges show the problem clearly: Europe has deep capital markets, but trading and infrastructure remain fragmented.
Banks and telecoms face similar pressures, but bigger only creates value when scale improves the underlying economics.

Europe has spent decades worrying about companies becoming too big. Now the bigger concern may be that they are not big enough.

On 14 September 2026, Euronext chief executive Stéphane Boujnah said the pan-European exchange operator could be open to a combination with rival Deutsche Börse if the economics made sense. There are no active merger talks, and Deutsche Börse has confirmed that. The interesting part is therefore not whether a deal happens. It is that such a deal can once again be seriously discussed.

The bigger question for investors is whether Europe is changing how it thinks about scale. If it is, exchanges may only be the beginning.

One market, many pieces

Europe has spent decades building a single market. In practice, many important industries still behave more like neighbouring national markets with a shared flag.

Stock exchanges show the problem clearly.

Euronext already operates markets across France, Italy, the Netherlands, Ireland, Norway and others through common infrastructure. Deutsche Börse runs another large ecosystem spanning the Frankfurt stock market, derivatives, clearing, settlement and financial data. Yet European trading is still spread across multiple exchanges, venues and national systems.

Europe is trying to reduce some of that fragmentation without mergers. In July, the European Securities and Markets Authority authorised EuroCTP as the consolidated tape provider for shares and exchange-traded funds.

The idea is simple. Instead of investors looking across many venues to see where a share is trading and at what price, the consolidated tape brings that information together in one stream. Think of it like replacing dozens of separate airport departure boards with one screen showing every flight.

It should improve transparency and price discovery. But it also reveals the bigger issue: Europe is still trying to make its financial markets behave more like one market. If the market itself becomes more unified, it is fair to ask whether the companies running it eventually become more unified too.

The economics of getting bigger

Scale matters most when a business has high fixed costs. An exchange spends heavily on technology, cybersecurity, data, regulation and clearing infrastructure. Once that system exists, processing another trade can be relatively cheap. Spread those fixed costs across more activity and the economics can improve.

The same logic helps explain why consolidation keeps returning in banking and telecoms. European banks operate under increasingly common supervision, yet the business remains highly national. Around 80% of lending still goes to customers in banks’ home countries, while fewer than 2% of deposits are held across borders.

Technology, compliance and risk systems are expensive. Serving more customers through the same infrastructure can therefore create real efficiencies. Telecoms face a similar equation. Building fibre and mobile networks requires huge upfront investment, but Europe remains divided across many national operators.

This is the strongest argument for European champions. Bigger is not automatically better. But where more customers can share the same infrastructure, scale can improve returns.

Size is not a moat

That distinction matters because merger enthusiasm can quickly become expensive. A combination can remove duplicated costs, widen distribution and strengthen competitive positions. It can also create bureaucracy, political compromises and an acquisition price that consumes years of expected benefits.

Europe is not abandoning competition policy either. The European Commission is reviewing its merger guidelines, but competition and consumer protection remain central. For investors, the better question is therefore not: who gets bought next? It is: does becoming bigger actually make the business better?

A merger does not create a moat simply because two companies become larger. The best combinations make an already strong business structurally stronger.

Three tests matter. Does scale lower costs or improve the product? Can management integrate the acquisition without damaging returns? And is the buyer disciplined about price? Even an excellent asset can become a poor investment if management pays too much.

Politics still sits at the table

Europe becoming more open to consolidation does not mean every deal will happen, or should happen.

Governments may still defend national champions. Regulators may object when fewer competitors could mean higher prices or less choice. Cross-border deals can also run into different labour rules, regulators and political priorities.

National borders may be fading economically, but politically they still matter.

Investor playbook

Look for real scale benefits. Shared infrastructure and technology matter more than simply combining revenues.
Watch the purchase price. Synergies mean little if management pays for all of them upfront.
Follow regulation, not rumours. Policy changes may matter more than individual takeover speculation.
Separate consolidation from quality. Fewer competitors can help economics, but execution still determines who captures the value.

Europe may finally be thinking at European scale

Europe has spent decades building a single market, yet many of its companies still behave as if national borders matter more than they should.

That is why the Euronext and Deutsche Börse discussion matters even if nothing happens. The important change is in the conversation itself. A larger European company can increasingly be seen not only as a competition risk, but also as a possible answer to duplicated infrastructure, weak scale and larger global rivals.

For investors, the opportunity is not simply to hunt for the next mega-merger. It is to identify where scale genuinely improves the business. Europe’s next challenge may not be building a bigger market. It already has one. The challenge is building companies capable of using it.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead

Oracle vs Adobe: AI is rewarding scarcity and punishing uncertainty

Fri, 11 Sep 2026 09:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Oracle is turning artificial intelligence demand into real cloud revenue, but the bill for building capacity remains enormous.
Adobe’s artificial intelligence products are growing quickly, yet investors still want proof that adoption protects pricing power.
The bigger lesson is simple: artificial intelligence creates value only when it improves economics or strengthens competitive advantages.

Oracle and Adobe reported earnings on 10 September 2026, but they offered investors two very different artificial intelligence stories.

Oracle, once mainly known for databases, is spending heavily to become a major supplier of computing power. Adobe, the company behind Photoshop and Acrobat, already owns highly profitable software franchises but must defend them as AI makes content creation easier.

Oracle needs AI to become big enough to justify the investment. Adobe needs AI to avoid making its products too easy to replace. The earnings did not settle either investment case. They did, however, make the questions much clearer.

Oracle finally shows the receipt

Oracle’s strongest answer came from its cloud infrastructure business, where revenue jumped 121% to 7.4 billion USD.

That matters more than the headline earnings beat. Oracle has spent the past year asking investors to accept huge spending today in exchange for much larger AI revenue tomorrow. This quarter offers evidence that tomorrow is starting to arrive.

Oracle added 850 megawatts of data-centre capacity during the quarter and signed more than 30 billion USD of additional AI cloud contracts. Remaining performance obligations, essentially contracted revenue still waiting to be recognised, reached 664 billion USD.

Demand therefore looks less theoretical.

But backlog is not cash. Oracle spent 28.5 billion USD on capital expenditure during the quarter, mostly on data-centre equipment. Customers increasingly provide prepayments or hardware themselves, which helps, but Oracle still needs to turn enormous infrastructure commitments into attractive returns.

The investor question has shifted from “is there demand?” to “can Oracle deliver it profitably?” That is progress. It is not the finish line.

Adobe has the users. Now it needs the economics

Adobe faces almost the opposite problem.

Revenue rose 13% to 6.76 billion USD, while annual recurring revenue from its newer AI-first products grew more than 150%. Adobe also passed one billion monthly active users across its creativity and productivity products.

Those are hardly signs of a business being abandoned.

Yet its fourth-quarter revenue outlook came in slightly below expectations. That small miss matters because investors are not really debating whether Adobe can add AI features. They are debating whether those features strengthen Adobe’s competitive advantage.

There is an important difference.

If AI makes Photoshop, Acrobat and Adobe’s other tools more useful, customers may spend more and become harder to lose. But if AI simply allows users to produce good-enough images, videos and documents through cheaper alternatives, Adobe may gain AI usage without gaining much pricing power.

That makes new chief executive Anil Chakravarthy’s task unusually clear when he takes over on 1 December: turn AI adoption into stronger economics, not simply more AI.

One technology, two very different tests

Oracle and Adobe illustrate why “AI exposure” tells investors surprisingly little.

Oracle sells something increasingly scarce: computing capacity. Its challenge is capital intensity. Adobe sells software with historically attractive margins. Its challenge is defending scarcity as AI lowers the cost of creating digital content.

For Oracle, investors should watch whether revenue and cash flow catch up with infrastructure spending. For Adobe, the better signal is whether AI products support stronger recurring revenue, customer retention and pricing.

The useful question is therefore not whether a company uses AI. It is whether AI makes the customer relationship stronger and the underlying economics better.

Risks worth watching

Oracle’s biggest risk is execution. Data centres are expensive, technically complex and dependent on chips, electricity and construction. Rising spending without equally strong revenue conversion would be an early warning sign.

Adobe faces competitive and leadership risk. AI-first rivals can move quickly, while Adobe is changing chief executive and still searching for a permanent finance chief. Strong AI usage combined with weak guidance or greater discounting would suggest adoption is not translating into enough economic value.

Investor playbook

Follow conversion: for Oracle, compare contracted demand with actual revenue, cash flow and capital spending.
Separate usage from monetisation: for Adobe, rapid AI adoption matters more if recurring revenue and pricing remain resilient.
Watch the competitive advantage: ask whether AI makes each company harder to replace or simply more expensive to operate.

The two unfinished AI stories

Oracle and Adobe started this earnings season with opposite questions, and they finish it with those questions narrowed rather than answered.

Oracle has provided stronger evidence that AI demand is big enough. It still has to prove that building all this capacity produces attractive returns. Adobe has shown that customers are using its AI products. It still has to prove those products make customers willing to keep paying Adobe.

That is the more useful lesson for investors. AI is not one investment theme. It is a stress test for every business model. The eventual winners will not simply use more AI. They will turn it into stronger customer relationships, better economics and, eventually, more cash.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Theme - Artificial intelligence Quarterly earnings

Apple folds the iPhone, Meta gives artificial intelligence a job

Thu, 10 Sep 2026 11:35:00 Z

Key takeaways

Meta’s rally reflects excitement about AI that acts, not proof that Muse will become a profitable product.
Apple still follows a different model: better hardware, premium pricing and deeper ecosystem spending.
Investors increasingly want AI spending to produce measurable behaviour, revenue or customer lock-in.

Apple unveiled a phone that folds. Meta unveiled an artificial intelligence (AI) assistant that can send emails, book travel and make purchases.

Investors reacted very differently.

On 9 September 2026, Meta closed at 653.69 USD, up 6.55%. Apple finished at 315.34 USD, down 0.28%. That is not a verdict that Meta is winning and Apple is losing. It is a sign that the technology cycle is changing.

Investors have spent years funding enormous AI investments. Increasingly, they want evidence that new technology changes what customers do, what they pay for, or how difficult they are to lose.

Three roads to the customer’s wallet

Apple’s model remains straightforward. Build desirable devices, control the software around them and charge premium prices.

Its new iPhone Duo pushes that formula further. The first foldable iPhone starts at 1,999 USD. Apple is testing whether a new form factor can encourage upgrades, protect pricing power and pull customers deeper into its ecosystem.

That ecosystem matters. Apple generated 54.25 billion USD from the iPhone and 30.74 billion USD from Services last quarter. Hardware remains the front door. Services increase the value of keeping customers inside.

Meta approaches AI differently.

Muse is designed not just to answer questions but to perform tasks across applications. If users repeatedly rely on it, Meta could monetise that activity through subscriptions, commerce and stronger engagement across its existing platforms.

That last point matters because advertising still generates almost all Meta’s revenue. Even small improvements in engagement can become valuable when applied across billions of users.

Amazon and Alphabet offer a third model: connect AI directly to commercial intent.

Amazon can use AI to help customers compare products and complete purchases. Google can insert AI into search, shopping and advertising. The distance between an AI query and actual revenue can therefore be much shorter.

From AI capex to AI cash flow

This matters because AI spending is becoming enormous.

Meta expects capital expenditure of 130 billion USD to 145 billion USD in 2026. In the second quarter alone, capital expenditure reached 31.08 billion USD, while free cash flow fell to just 784 million USD.

Muse therefore matters beyond the product itself. It offers one possible answer to the question investors increasingly ask: what does all this infrastructure spending eventually produce?

The 6.55% share-price jump does not prove the economics work. It shows how valuable a credible monetisation path can become when spending expectations are already high.

Risks

Apple still needs to prove consumers want an expensive foldable iPhone in meaningful numbers.

Meta faces a different challenge. The more useful an AI agent becomes, the more responsibility users give it. Reliability, privacy and payment security therefore become more important.

There is also a simpler risk across Big Tech: people may use AI heavily without paying much for it. Usage is not the same as attractive economics.

Investor playbook

Follow behaviour, not demonstrations. Watch repeat usage, transactions and conversion rather than headline AI capabilities.
Compare revenue with spending. AI growth matters less if infrastructure costs rise just as quickly.
Watch Apple’s upgrade cycle. Strong foldable demand could show hardware innovation still supports pricing power.
Track the route to money. Advertising, subscriptions and transactions provide clearer signals than vague promises of future AI value.

From spectacle to habit

Yesterday looked like a contest between a folding screen and an AI agent. It is better understood as a contest between monetisation models.

Apple makes money when better hardware encourages customers to upgrade and remain inside its ecosystem. Meta needs AI to deepen engagement and eventually create new revenue streams. Amazon and Google sit closer to the transaction itself.

None guarantees attractive returns.

For investors, the question is becoming less about which demonstration looks cleverest and more about which technology changes behaviour repeatedly, produces cash and does so without costs rising just as fast.

The next technology cycle may still reward spectacle. But usefulness is becoming the receipt investors increasingly want to see.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Apple Inc. Meta Platforms Inc. Theme - Artificial intelligence

The nuclear IPO boom: AI needs electricity, Wall Street smells an opportunity

Wed, 09 Sep 2026 10:15:00 Z

Key takeaways

Holtec joins a growing group of nuclear companies testing public-market appetite, alongside X-energy and Standard Nuclear, while Westinghouse is also exploring a listing.
Artificial intelligence strengthens demand for reliable power, but nuclear economics still depend heavily on construction cost and execution.
Nuclear stocks offer very different exposures, from operating plants and fuel to equipment suppliers and future reactor developers.

The next artificial intelligence company coming to the stock market does not make chips or software. It makes nuclear equipment.

H oltec Nuclear is scheduled to list on Nasdaq on 18 September 2026, after setting an IPO price range of USD 15 to USD 18 per share that values the company at up to USD 10.2 billion.

Behind the rush sits a simple problem. AI needs computers. Computers need data centres. And data centres need enormous amounts of electricity, preferably every hour of every day.

The International Energy Agency expects global data-centre electricity consumption to roughly double between 2025 and 2030. Suddenly, nuclear’s ability to provide continuous power looks considerably more fashionable.

Source: Saxo Bank analysis based on International Energy Agency, US Securities and Exchange Commission, company filings.

Nuclear is one theme, but several businesses

Holtec makes the comparison interesting because it is not simply a promise about a future reactor.

The company already makes nuclear components, handles spent fuel and provides decommissioning services. It is also trying to restart the 800-megawatt Palisades plant in Michigan and develop its own small modular reactor (SMR), a smaller reactor designed for more standardised construction.

That puts Holtec somewhere between several existing nuclear investments.

Constellation Energy mainly offers exposure to electricity from operating plants. Cameco sells uranium and owns 49% of Westinghouse, which supplies fuel, equipment and services. GE Vernova participates through nuclear equipment and its BWRX-300 small modular reactor technology. Oklo sits much further towards the development end, where most of the value depends on reactors that still need to be built.

Same nuclear theme. Very different business risks.

For investors, that distinction matters more than the word “nuclear” in the company description. Existing reactors generate electricity today. New-reactor developers first need permits, financing, construction and customers.

The USD 15,000 question

Demand may no longer be nuclear’s biggest problem. Cost is.

The recent US experience is uncomfortable. Research used by the US Department of Energy estimates the construction cost of Vogtle Units 3 and 4 at around USD 15,000 per kilowatt (kW) in 2024 dollars.

Compare that with the Barakah nuclear plant in the United Arab Emirates. Built using South Korean reactor technology and a repeatable four-unit programme, its USD 24.4 billion financing requirement across 5.6 gigawatts works out at roughly USD 4,400 per kW of capacity.

The measures are not perfectly comparable, but the gap tells the important story. Nuclear becomes much cheaper when countries repeat designs, retain skilled workers and maintain functioning supply chains.

Holtec itself targets around USD 7,500 to USD 8,500 per kW for future dual-unit SMR projects in high-cost markets such as the US. That target matters. Delivering it matters considerably more.

Where the story can go wrong

The clearest risk is that nuclear enthusiasm runs ahead of nuclear economics. Rising cost-per-kW estimates, delayed regulatory milestones or repeated requests for additional government funding would be early warning signs.

AI demand can also be real without becoming nuclear demand. Natural gas, renewables, batteries and grid upgrades can arrive faster than new reactors.

Holtec adds a governance wrinkle. Founder-linked entities are expected to retain roughly 99% of the voting power over director elections after the IPO, leaving public shareholders with limited influence.

Investor playbook

Separate today from tomorrow. Distinguish existing cash-generating nuclear assets from businesses dependent on future reactor deployment.
Follow cost per kilowatt. Falling construction costs and repeat projects matter more than ambitious capacity announcements.
Watch contracts and permits. Binding power agreements, regulatory approvals and completed construction milestones provide stronger evidence than non-binding plans.

Electricity first, valuations second

AI may have reopened nuclear’s door to Wall Street, but electricity demand alone does not make reactors economic. The winners will be companies that turn demand into signed contracts, permits, repeatable construction and eventually cash flow.

That is why the most useful nuclear metric may not be megawatts promised, but dollars per kilowatt actually delivered. If the industry moves from Vogtle-style one-off complexity towards Barakah-style repetition, this IPO wave could mark a genuine industrial restart. If costs remain high and timelines keep slipping, investors may discover that AI servers can still be built much faster than reactors.

The electricity shortage is real. Execution will decide who gets paid for solving it.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Artificial Intelligence

Asia Market Quick Take – 09 September 2026

Wed, 09 Sep 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 9 September, 2026

Key points:

Macro: US strikes Iran tankers near Kharg, triggering retaliations from Iran
Equities: Stocks fell for 2^nd consecutive day; Optical stocks outperformed
FX: Yen strength drives further USD softness as markets await US CPI
Commodities: Brent nears $100 and LME copper hits record high
Fixed income: US Treasuries bear flattening, buyback in focus

------------------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

The US struck Iranian tankers near Kharg Island, triggering Iranian missile launches toward Jordan and warnings to tankers near Kuwait and Bahrain. Iran-backed Houthis hit Saudi energy facilities, and with Hormuz disrupted plus strong Chinese demand, refiners are bidding up African, Canadian and Latin American crude.
Japan’s Reuters Tankan manufacturing index rose to +21 in September 2026, the highest since December 2021, driven by strong semiconductor and data center demand. Electronics jumped to +39, textiles and paper to +13, while steel and nonferrous stayed at -13. Non-manufacturers’ sentiment edged up to +29 on solid domestic consumption, with both manufacturers and non-manufacturers expecting +27 in three months.
US one-year inflation expectations stayed at 3.6% in August 2026, while gas, food, medical care, college costs and rent expectations all rose. Three- and five-year inflation expectations were 3.2% and 3.0%. Expected earnings growth ticked up to 2.9%, and the perceived chance unemployment will be higher in a year climbed to 44.4%, the highest since April 2020.
Germany’s trade surplus jumped to €21.3bn in July 2026 from €15.4bn in June, the biggest since August 2024, as imports fell far more than exports. Exports slipped 0.8% m/m, with EU sales down and US-bound exports up sharply, while imports dropped 5.7%. The January–July surplus rose to €125.8bn from €122.8bn a year earlier.

Japan’s services sentiment index rose to 46.4 in August 2026, a fourth straight gain and the highest since February, helped by stronger household-related demand. The outlook index increased to 48.3, a six-month high, indicating expectations of further recovery despite natural-disaster concerns.

Equities:

US — S&P 500 fell 0.6% to 7,673.52 on Tuesday, its second consecutive decline, as surging oil prices stoked rate-hike fears. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.2% (628 points) and the Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.1%. Health care was the worst-performing sector, with Amgen posting its largest single-day drop since 2000. Verizon and Corning signed a multi-billion dollar deal for Corning to supply 80 million miles of high density optical fibre to Verizon. Optic and laser stocks rallied – Lumentum +11% while Coherent +7%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) bucked the trend, rising 1.3%. Qualcomm gained 3% after it signed a deal with Amazon to develop customized AI chips for AWS.
EU — The Stoxx 600 closed marginally lower at 649.60 on Tuesday, with health care the worst-performing sector, down 2.3%. Novartis fell as much as 11% — its worst day on record — after its del-desiran muscle-wasting disease treatment failed a late-stage clinical trial, marking the company's third setback in a week. The Swiss SMI dropped 1.6%. The DAX was little changed at 26,007.63, while the FTSE 100 edged lower to 10,811.66, with AstraZeneca and Computacenter (down 7.8%) among the notable decliners. Basic resources stocks outperformed, with copper miners Antofagasta and Boliden rising over 6% as copper hit a new record high.
Asia — Asian markets on Tuesday were mixed, caught between AI-driven chip optimism and macro headwinds from rising oil prices and a strengthening yen. The Nikkei 225 faced pressure from yen strength, with inbound-related stocks hit hard — Seiko Group plunged 15% and Citizen Watch dropped 12% on concerns about weaker inbound tourism spending and watch exports. The Kospi had surged 3.3%–3.5% on Monday, driven by SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics on OpenAI's new Astra model optimism, though oil-driven selling erased some gains on Tuesday. The Hang Seng saw Shenzhen Longsys Electronics debut in the red, slipping 1% on its first trading day, marking the fourth consecutive large Hong Kong IPO to fall on debut. Copper-related stocks across the region gained as the metal hit a record $14,617 per ton on the LME. Korean equity futures pointed higher heading into Wednesday's open on sustained SOX gains.

Earnings this week:

Wednesday: Inditex, GameStop, Apple IPhone event
Thursday: Adobe, Oracle

FX:

USD weakened modestly on Tuesday, with DXY edging down to 98.759, its lowest since May, as yen strength dominated G10 trading. Global markets stayed focused on Friday’s US CPI release, with over a 50% implied probability of another Fed hike and higher oil prices weighing on risk sentiment and oil-importing currencies.
USDJPY briefly broke below 153 to 152.89 — its strongest yen level since February — driven by stops below 155 and options-related USD selling, leaving the pair down nearly 4% month-to-date.
EURUSD and GBPUSD inched higher (to 1.1630 and 1.3546), while AUDUSD held firm at 0.7223 despite Middle East–driven risk-off.
NOK was the best G10 performer vs USD at the New York close, and USDCAD slipped to 1.3783 on supportive US-Canada trade comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent, even as Canada imposed retaliatory tariffs.
USDCNH eased slightly after new US Iran sanctions spared additional Chinese entities.

Commodities:

Brent crude settled around $98/bbl on Tuesday and extended gains in early Asian trade Wednesday, with WTI trading above $94–$95/bbl, after the US military destroyed five Iranian IRGC tankers near Kharg Island. Houthi attacks on Saudi Aramco's southern facilities added further supply disruption fears. Vitol CEO Russell Hardy warned of tightness in oil-product markets, though noted Strait of Hormuz flows have partially recovered to around 10 million barrels per day.
LME 3-month copper futures hit a fresh all-time high of $14,779/ton intraday on Tuesday, closing at $14,708.50/ton, up nearly 18% year-to-date. The rally is driven by tight near-term supply, expectations of US tariffs on refined copper imports, and structural demand from AI data centres and the energy transition. Chile's Collahuasi mine is reportedly restarting a mothballed processing plant amid record prices.
Spot gold fell as much as 1.1%, holding near $4,350/oz, as rising oil prices stoked rate hike expectations — a headwind for the non-yielding metal. Bullion has dropped approximately 2.6% over the past three sessions as the Fed rate hike probability has risen above 50%.

Fixed income:

Treasuries sold off as US markets returned from the Labor Day holiday, with the curve bear-flattening — 2-year yields rose 3bps while 10-year yields held around 4.79–4.81%. A $58bn 3-year note auction and heavy corporate supply added pressure. All eyes are on Wednesday's Treasury announcement of the expanded buyback size in the 10- to 20-year bucket, with Bessent signalling at least $4bn.
The UK sold £4.25bn of 30-year gilts at 5.82%, the highest yield at any gilt sale since the Debt Management Office was created. BOE Governor Bailey flagged upside inflation risks, and Barclays expects the BOE to slow its QT pace to £50bn at next week's policy meeting. UK house prices posted their first annual decline since 2023, per Lloyds data.
Japan's 5-year auction on Tuesday saw softer demand, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.42 versus a 12-month average of 3.44. The JGB 2s10s spread remains around 105bps — substantially steeper than Treasury and Gilt curves. JGBs are expected to decline on Wednesday, tracking the fall in US Treasuries and higher oil prices.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

Apple’s foldable iPhone is also a memory story

Tue, 08 Sep 2026 09:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

AI demand is making memory scarcer and more expensive, pushing the boom from data centres into consumer electronics.
Apple’s launch tests whether strong pricing power can protect profits when the cost of building an iPhone rises.
South Korea offers AI exposure through memory, but that also means geographical diversification may hide similar economic risks.

Tomorrow, 9 September 2026, Apple takes the stage. Most attention will probably go to folding screens, cameras, thinner devices and artificial intelligence.

But arguably the more interesting investment story sits inside the phone.

One of its most basic ingredients, memory, has suddenly become far more valuable because the same technology is increasingly needed by a completely different customer: the artificial intelligence data centre.

Apple has already warned that rising memory costs and component shortages are affecting its business. Now it is expected to unveil its first foldable iPhone just as those costs are climbing sharply.

The road from Apple’s new iPhone to Nvidia’s AI servers is shorter than it looks.

The chip nobody sees is becoming hard to ignore

Artificial intelligence needs more than powerful processors.

Graphics processing units, or GPUs, perform the calculations. Memory gives those processors fast access to the enormous quantities of data they constantly need. Think of the GPU as the chef and memory as the kitchen counter. A brilliant chef becomes less useful if every ingredient sits in another room.

That is why high-bandwidth memory, a particularly fast type of memory used in AI systems, has become another important bottleneck alongside processors, networking and electricity.

The numbers show how quickly the economics have changed. Global dynamic random-access memory, or DRAM, industry revenue reached almost USD 155 billion in the second quarter of 2026, up about 60% from the previous quarter, according to TrendForce. Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Micron dominate the industry.

The important point is not simply that demand is strong. Supply cannot increase overnight.

Memory factories cost billions and take years to build. Producers therefore allocate scarce capacity towards the products offering the best returns. Today, that increasingly means server memory and high-bandwidth memory for AI.

The result is straightforward. More capacity for the data centre can mean less available for smartphones and personal computers.

For investors, this is an important mechanism to understand: when supply cannot respond quickly, strong demand can become pricing power.

Apple now gets part of the AI bill

This is where the AI boom leaves the server room and arrives in your pocket.

TrendForce estimates that memory represented only around 10% of the component cost of Apple’s equivalent premium iPhone a year ago. For the coming generation, it expects that share to rise dramatically, helping push the total component cost of the iPhone 18 Pro about 38% higher than its predecessor.

That creates a simple test for Apple: can innovation offset inflation?

The expected foldable iPhone could give consumers their clearest reason in years to reconsider what an iPhone looks like. But Apple is trying to sell that innovation while the device itself becomes more expensive to build. This is where Apple’s moat becomes practical rather than theoretical.

Its brand, ecosystem and enormous installed base give it more room than most manufacturers to charge premium prices. A weaker company may have to absorb rising component costs and watch margins shrink. Apple has more options: raise prices, adjust specifications, accept slightly lower margins or encourage customers towards higher-value services.

Pricing power is easy to admire when costs are falling. Its real value appears when suppliers send a bigger bill.

Apple is not entering an empty market either. Huawei and Xiaomi launched new foldables on 7 September. Huawei already controls about 68% of China’s foldable market, while Samsung remains the global leader. Xiaomi’s latest foldable reportedly uses memory from Chinese producer CXMT.

So the question is not whether Apple can make a phone that folds. It is whether Apple can turn foldables from a niche category into the next premium smartphone upgrade cycle.

Follow the bottleneck and you arrive in Korea

The supply-chain story eventually leads to South Korea.

Semiconductors accounted for roughly 41% of South Korean exports during the first eight months of 2026, with semiconductor exports rising about 170% from a year earlier. AI memory is increasingly shaping not only individual companies, but the country’s wider economy and stock market.

Samsung sits on both sides of the story as a smartphone manufacturer and a major memory producer. SK Hynix is more directly exposed to the memory boom, while US-listed Micron provides another route into the same cycle.

That creates a useful portfolio lesson. Buying Korean equities may provide geographical diversification from US technology stocks. But if both positions ultimately depend on the same AI investment cycle, the economic diversification may be smaller than the map suggests. Different countries do not always mean different risks.

Risks: memory has a long memory for cycles

Memory remains a cyclical industry. Today’s shortage can eventually encourage too much investment, leading to tomorrow’s excess supply. Slower AI infrastructure spending, rising inventories or falling memory contract prices would be early warning signs that pricing power is weakening.

There is also no guarantee that foldables become mainstream. TrendForce expects them to represent only around 2% of global smartphones in 2026. Apple could successfully launch a beautiful product into a category that remains relatively small.

Finally, higher prices test consumers as much as Apple. Strong pricing power helps, but it does not make demand unlimited.

Investor playbook

Follow scarcity, not only sales. Ask which components become harder to obtain when a new technology grows quickly.
Watch margins alongside growth. Apple’s pricing power matters only if it can offset higher costs without damaging demand.
Look through country labels. Korean and US technology holdings can still depend on the same AI spending cycle.
Watch the supply response. New factories and rising inventories can eventually turn today’s bottleneck into tomorrow’s oversupply.

The invisible part of tomorrow’s launch

Tomorrow, millions of people will watch Apple unveil what could be the biggest change to the iPhone in years. They will debate the screen, the price and whether consumers really need a phone that folds.

One of the most important components will remain invisible.

AI is turning memory from something consumers rarely consider into one of technology’s critical bottlenecks. That raises costs for Apple, strengthens the economics of Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron, and is reshaping South Korea’s market along the way.

The investing lesson is simple: when a new technology becomes enormous, do not only ask who sells it. Ask what it makes scarce. Sometimes the quieter part of the supply chain has the louder economics.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Apple Inc.

The AI moat test: what Oracle and Adobe need to prove

Mon, 07 Sep 2026 10:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Oracle must prove huge AI spending can turn contracted demand into durable cash flow.
Adobe must prove AI strengthens its creative workflow rather than making professional software easier to replace.
For investors, AI growth matters less than the capital required and the durability of what customers pay for.

On 10 September 2026, Oracle and Adobe report earnings on the same day. They offer one of the cleanest comparisons in the artificial intelligence boom.

Oracle sells databases, business software and cloud computing. Its challenge is physical: build enough data-centre capacity for booming AI demand without letting investment swallow the economics.

Adobe sells creative and document software such as Photoshop and Acrobat. Its challenge is almost the reverse. AI makes content cheaper and easier to create. Adobe must show that easier creation makes its ecosystem more valuable, not less necessary.

Oracle needs AI demand to become big enough. Adobe needs AI creation to avoid becoming too easy.

Oracle's problem: growth that eats cash

Oracle's AI story is already enormous. Fiscal 2026 revenue rose 17%, fourth-quarter cloud infrastructure revenue rose 93%, and its contract backlog reached USD 638 billion.

Demand is not the obvious problem. The bill is.

Oracle spent about USD 55.7 billion on capital expenditure in fiscal 2026 against roughly USD 32 billion of operating cash flow. Capital spending therefore equalled about 174% of operating cash flow, leaving free cash flow negative.

That spending may still create value. The question is whether future returns justify today's cheque.

Customers have prepaid for, or directly supplied, around USD 75 billion of graphics processing units tied to large AI contracts. That reduces Oracle's funding burden. Investors still need to watch how quickly backlog becomes revenue and how much cash remains after new capacity is built.

Adobe's problem: a moat AI can redraw

Adobe starts from the opposite position. In its latest quarter, it generated about USD 2.2 billion of operating cash flow while spending just USD 58 million on property and equipment.

That is attractive software economics. But AI attacks scarcity instead.

Photoshop became valuable partly because high-quality digital creation required specialist tools and skills. Generative AI lets almost anyone produce a credible image from a sentence. Canva, Figma and AI-native tools are lowering the barrier further.

Adobe's defence is becoming clearer. Rather than relying only on Firefly, it increasingly lets customers use outside models, including OpenAI's, inside Adobe workflows. The moat can shift from owning the best model to owning the place where professionals create, edit, approve and publish.

Adobe's AI-first annual recurring revenue, meaning subscription revenue linked to newer AI products, exceeded USD 500 million in the second quarter and had tripled from a year earlier. Yet it remains small beside Adobe's overall subscription base.

The test is monetisation. Does AI bring in users, improve retention and support pricing, or simply become another feature Adobe must include?

Adobe also enters earnings with a leadership transition. Anil Chakravarthy becomes chief executive on 1 December. Adobe shares closed at USD 266.51 on 4 September, down 6.7% that day and roughly 18% lower in 2026.

Same boom, different moats

The broader lesson reaches beyond these two companies.

AI infrastructure businesses often need enormous upfront capital. Their moat can come from scale, access to chips and power, contracts and high utilisation. Software needs less physical capital, but AI can make once-special features easier to reproduce.

Growth alone therefore tells investors little. A better question is what a company must spend to produce that growth, and what stops competitors from taking the revenue.

Oracle must prove the economics of demand. Adobe must prove the durability of differentiation.

Risks

For Oracle, warning signs include slower backlog conversion, data-centre delays or another sharp rise in funding needs.

For Adobe, watch retention, pricing and AI subscription growth. If AI usage rises but customer spending does not, the product may improve faster than the economics. Leadership change adds execution risk.

Investor playbook

Separate revenue growth from cash generation. Fast growth financed by faster spending deserves different treatment from capital-light growth.
Watch Oracle's backlog conversion, not backlog size alone. Contracts matter most when they become revenue and cash.
At Adobe, track whether AI improves subscriptions, retention and pricing rather than simply adding features.
Across AI, ask what remains scarce: chips, power, workflow, distribution, data or customer trust.

Two tests, one lesson

Oracle and Adobe report on the same evening, but they are solving opposite versions of the same problem. Oracle has customers lining up for AI capacity and must prove it can build enough without sacrificing too much cash. Adobe already produces abundant cash and must prove AI does not make its core value abundant too.

That is the useful lesson for investors. A moat is not simply fast growth, a famous brand or an AI label. It is the ability to earn attractive returns while competitors struggle to copy the economics. Oracle needs AI to become big enough. Adobe needs AI not to become too easy. Thursday's numbers matter, but those two questions matter more.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Artificial Intelligence

Market Quick Take - Markets rally as Waller turns dovish, jobs report takes centre stage - 04 September 2026

Fri, 04 Sep 2026 05:45:00 Z

Market drivers and catalysts

Macro: A senior Fed voice softened on September as the jobs report comes into view
Equities: US and European stocks rallied as rate fears eased, while Asian markets extended gains with technology leading.
Digital Assets: Crypto equities surged as bitcoin reclaimed a key level on easing rate fears
Commodities: BCOM heads for record weekly close as energy surges; Waller and softer dollar revive gold momentum
Fixed Income: Global bonds rally, led by Japan’s government bonds
Currencies: Recent JPY surge partially fades, USD weaker.

Macro

The US Fed's Waller pivots dovish: Fed Governor Christopher Waller said his September rate decision will be “heavily influenced” by August CPI data due 11 September. He signalled willingness to hold rates steady if disinflation continues, prompting markets to price roughly even odds of a hike at the September meeting, down from near-certainty earlier in the week.
US trade deficit widens sharply: The July goods and services trade gap expanded 24.4% month-on-month to $88.6 billion, the largest since early 2025, driven by an 11.4% surge in capital goods imports, primarily computers and semiconductors, reflecting the AI investment race.
The ISM Services PMI showed strong momentum in August, with activity and demand both picking up. Solid growth alongside limited hiring supports the broader AI-productivity story. For the Fed, however, rising cost pressures were the main concern, putting even more focus on the August CPI ahead of the mid-September FOMC meeting. The ISM Services PMI rose 1.3 points to 55.4, above the 54.1 consensus. Business activity and new orders strengthened, while backlogs also increased. Meanwhile, prices paid rose to 72.6, above the 70 consensus.
US-Iran conflict ongoing: The US carried out a second round of strikes against Iran this week, keeping oil prices elevated and stoking inflation concerns. President Trump said renewed attacks would be “short-lived,” offering some relief to markets mid-week.
The BOE's Pill flags prompt hike: Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill said a “prompt” rate increase would be appropriate to prevent the Iran energy shock from embedding inflation, though he stressed it need not be the start of a prolonged hiking cycle.
More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0600 – Germany Jul. Factory Orders
1230 – US Aug. Nonfarm Payrolls Change
1230 – US Aug. Unemployment Rate
1230 – US Aug. Average Hourly Earnings
1230 – Canada Aug. Employment Data
1400 – Canada Aug. Ivey PMI

Earnings events

Next week
Wednesday: Inditex
Thursday: Oracle, Adobe

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 rose 1.1% to 7,747.71, the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.2%, and the Dow added 1.2% after Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s softer comments reduced expectations for a September rate hike. Microsoft gained 2.7%, while Nvidia rose 1.8% after agreeing to acquire AI platform Hugging Face for $12.9 billion. Snowflake surged 16.6% on a stronger revenue outlook, while Broadcom fell 2.7% after its quarterly revenue forecast disappointed. After hours, Lululemon dropped around 18% after cutting its full-year revenue and profit outlook again. Markets now turn to today’s US jobs report.
Europe: The Stoxx 600 rose 0.5% to 649.1, the Euro Stoxx 50 gained 0.3%, Germany’s DAX advanced 0.6%, and the FTSE 100 added 0.7% as lower global bond yields eased recent pressure on valuations. Soitec jumped 10.3% after raising its second-quarter revenue growth outlook, while WPP gained 5.6% and Publicis rose 4.4% following reports that Publicis had won PepsiCo’s media account. Commerzbank added 2.3% after announcing a share buyback of up to €1.2 billion, while LVMH fell 1.8% as investors remained cautious on the luxury recovery.
Asia: Asian equities advanced in today’s session, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 1.2%, South Korea’s Kospi around 2% higher and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gaining about 2% as Waller’s comments supported risk appetite ahead of US jobs data. SoftBank surged around 10%, providing much of the Nikkei’s lift, while Kioxia gained 6.3% as AI-linked stocks rebounded. Samsung Electronics rose 3% and SK Hynix gained 5%, helped by renewed semiconductor demand optimism. A stronger yen and rising Bank of Japan rate expectations remained the main counterweight for Japanese exporters.
More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Digital Assets

Crypto equities had their strongest day in weeks as bitcoin reclaimed USD 80,000 on Thursday and rate-hike odds fell. Strategy rose 17.56%, Circle 16.46% and Coinbase 10.14%, with the miners up 10% to 14%; spot has since flattened overnight.
Strategy resumed buying after a ten-week pause, adding 4,603 bitcoin for USD 369.7 million in its 31 August filing, lifting holdings to 845,050. US spot bitcoin funds took in USD 101 million on Wednesday while ether funds saw USD 48 million leave.

Commodities

Oil: Crude trades steady after a three-session rally of around 9%, with WTI at USD 91.50 and Brent at USD 95.50. The US-Iran conflict around the Strait of Hormuz continues to keep supply risks and the geopolitical risk premium elevated. Brent has risen almost 60% this year, while refined products such as diesel have seen even steeper gains amid the Middle East conflict and Russia-Ukraine war. OPEC+ ministers meet on Sunday to set production targets.
Metals: Gold extended its rebound, rising as much as 2.9% on Thursday to above USD 4,500 an ounce, its biggest intraday jump since 19 August, supported by a weaker dollar and Waller’s remarks. Spot trades around USD 4,470 this morning. The largest bullion-backed gold fund recorded a USD 1.41 billion inflow, its largest since 16 January, while the senior gold miner fund rose 3.95% and silver 2.51%. In addition, central bank demand remains an important structural support. Following Waller’s comments, there is little doubt that next week’s August CPI print could have an outsized impact on market risk sentiment and where gold goes next. Key resistance is the 200-day moving average at USD 4,534.
Commodities: The BCOM Total Return Index is heading for a weekly gain of around 2%, lifting its year-to-date advance to 33.6% and putting it on course for a record weekly closing high. Energy has done most of the heavy lifting, surging 6.3%, while agriculture trades softer following four weeks of strong gains that lifted the BCOM Agriculture Index by 12.6%. An end-of-week rebound across precious metals has left the sector near unchanged on the week, while industrial metals have recorded a small gain.
More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

Global bonds rallied Thursday and early Friday. On Thursday, the US Fed’s Waller, an FOMC meeting voter, sounded far more dovish than Chair Warsh, confusing the market and sending short-date US yields sharply lower by some seven basis points, though much of that move was erased. Today’s key test for global bond markets is the US August jobs report.
In Japan on Friday, the government bond yield curve bull flattened again, with short-dated yields modestly lower while the longest-dated government bonds were snapped up for a second session, sending the benchmark 30-year JGB yield another seven basis points lower and testing the symbolic 4.00% yield level.

Currencies

The rally in the Japanese yen extended close to the key 155.00 level in USDJPY, an area where the prior two rounds of intervention failed to see the JPY punching through to sustain a rally. Bloomberg reported that JP Morgan estimates that perhaps some 16–17 trillion JPY in JPY carry trades, more than USD 100 billion in long USDJPY trades, remain outstanding and that a self-reinforcing liquidation of positions could be triggered by a move below 155.00 that could send USDJPY to the 142–146 range.
The US dollar was broadly weaker after Fed voter Christopher Waller’s dovish comments. EURUSD rose back solidly above 1.1625 and AUDUSD rose above 0.7210, its highest level since May.
EURSEK fell sharply after testing as high as 11.18+ earlier this week, falling as low as 11.08 early Friday and therefore back into the range below 11.11 that had capped the exchange rate from June through August. Sweden’s Riksbank Governor Thedeen spoke positively on the status of the economic recovery and the market has pulled forward expectations of the bank’s first policy hike to as soon as the November meeting.
More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis

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Four earnings, one AI message: follow the money

Thu, 03 Sep 2026 09:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Broadcom’s custom chips and networking show AI spending is broadening beyond general-purpose graphics processing units.
Dell, Snowflake and Palo Alto reveal the next bottlenecks: systems, usable data and security.
Strong results can still disappoint when expectations are extreme, making cash generation and execution more important.

The artificial intelligence boom is starting to look less like one trade and more like a supply chain.

Between 1 and 2 September 2026, Dell Technologies, Palo Alto Networks, Snowflake and Broadcom all reported strong AI-linked demand. Yet investors reacted differently. Dell rallied, Snowflake jumped after hours, while Palo Alto fell and Broadcom slipped.

AI spending still looks strong. The harder question is where the best economics sit, and how much investors have already paid for them.

Broadcom moves to the centre

Broadcom designs custom AI processors and the networking technology connecting thousands of chips inside data centres. AI semiconductor revenue more than tripled year on year, while management now expects about 115 billion USD of AI semiconductor revenue in fiscal 2027.

Large AI developers increasingly want chips designed around their own workloads. Custom chips can offer better cost or power efficiency than general-purpose graphics processing units for specific tasks. Broadcom also sells the networking equipment connecting them, giving it exposure to two bottlenecks at once.

Yet the shares slipped after results. Near-term guidance landed around market expectations, which were already enormous. Strong demand can be real and still not be strong enough for the share price.

The rest of the AI factory is filling up

Dell assembles servers and storage systems that turn chips into working infrastructure. AI server orders hit record levels and the company raised its outlook again, confirming that customers are moving from plans to deployments.

Cash flow deserves attention. Dell generated about 1 billion USD of standard free cash flow on 47 billion USD of quarterly revenue. Its adjusted figure is higher because it adds back cash tied up in customer financing and leased equipment. Hardware growth can still require plenty of cash.

Snowflake helps companies store, organise and use their data. Product revenue accelerated, guidance rose and management said AI products drove roughly half of the recent growth acceleration. AI becomes more useful when it can work safely with a company’s own data.

Palo Alto Networks provides the security layer. More connected data, models and automated agents create more things to protect. Results were strong, but the shares fell as investors questioned how much growth came from acquisitions versus the underlying business.

Follow the bottlenecks, then follow the cash

Broadcom controls scarce custom computing and networking technology. Dell benefits from physical deployment but ties up more capital. Snowflake monetises data usage. Palo Alto benefits from growing security complexity.

For investors, the better question is shifting from “who has AI exposure?” to “what bottleneck does this company control, and how efficiently does it turn demand into cash?”

Risks

The main risk is that infrastructure spending eventually runs ahead of real AI usage. Customer concentration also matters, especially when a few hyperscalers drive demand. Expectations remain demanding.

Investor playbook

Track whether AI orders keep turning into delivered systems, not only announced projects.
Compare revenue growth with margins and free cash flow to judge growth quality.
Watch whether enterprise AI usage spreads into data, security and recurring software spending.

The AI trade is becoming a bottleneck hunt

The first phase of the AI boom rewarded scarce computing power. These four earnings reports suggest the second phase is becoming more interesting.

Broadcom shows custom silicon and networking becoming a serious second pillar of AI infrastructure. Dell confirms physical deployment remains strong. Snowflake shows AI moving into enterprise data, while Palo Alto shows that more automation creates more need for control.

The lesson is not to guess which logo wins the AI race. It is to ask who controls a bottleneck, who gets paid repeatedly and who converts demand into cash. As AI spreads through the stack, those questions may matter more than the headline growth rate.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Artificial Intelligence Quarterly earnings

Asia Market Quick Take – 03 September 2026

Thu, 03 Sep 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 3 Sep, 2026

Key points:

Macro: RBNZ hikes to 2.75%. BoC holds at 2.25% but warns of higher inflation
Equities: US indices rise; Snowflake rises 23% after strong earnings
FX: Hawkish BOJ comments and intervention speculation drove USDJPY down to 158.71
Commodities: Oil eases after Trump downplays prolonged conflict
Fixed income: Japan 10-year yields hit 3% since 1996

------------------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

US carried out new strikes on Iranian IRGC targets near the Strait of Hormuz, driving a sustained oil rally and reviving inflation fears, though prices later eased after Trump downplayed the risk of a prolonged conflict.
The latest ADP report showed US private employers added just 38,000 jobs in August, the weakest gain since January and below the 47,000 expected, signaling a cooling labor market. Markets now see a 66% chance of a Fed rate hike in September, up from about 40% a week earlier.
US factory orders rose 0.9% in July 2026, rebounding from a 0.2% drop in June and beating the 0.6% forecast. Gains were led by a 2.3% jump in transportation equipment, including a 12.7% surge in civilian aircraft. Orders ex-transportation rose 0.6%, and ex-defense increased 1.0%.
The RBNZ delivered a second straight 25 bp hike to 2.75% but signaled a slower tightening path than markets expected. It now projects the cash rate at 2.81% by December and 3.15% by end-2027, below the roughly 3.5% peak priced in, and said further hikes are likely but timing is uncertain.
BoC left its policy rate at 2.25% but warned of stronger upside inflation risks from higher energy prices, the Middle East war, and renewed US tariffs, while saying the outlook remains too uncertain to guide future moves.
Australia Q2 GDP beat estimates, sending the 3-year yield up nearly 10 bps, while earnings beats are outpacing misses for the first time in four years.

Equities:

US — S&P 500 rose 0.5% to 7,666.60 on Wednesday, snapping a three-day losing streak, as oil prices stalled and bargain hunters returned. Nasdaq 100 gained 0.2% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.6%. Ten of eleven S&P 500 sectors closed higher, led by materials and communication services. Dell Technologies surged 15.8% on a solid earnings outlook. Meta Platforms gained 3.1% and Nvidia rose 3.2%, while Palo Alto Networks fell 9.3%. In after-hours trading, Broadcom slid as much as ~3.7% after issuing a Q4 revenue forecast that missed expectations ($34.8b vs $35.03b). Snowflake rose 23% after a strong earnings report and upbeat guidance, with revenue jumping 35% yoy, largely driven by new accounts of its AI coding agent CoCo.
EU — European equities extended their losing streak on Wednesday. The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.2% to 645.91, its lowest close since 29 July, led lower by industrials — Siemens dropped 1.5% and Lottomatica fell 7.6%. The DAX declined 0.5% to 25,839, with Zalando down 4.7%. The FTSE 100 fell 0.3% to 10,756, with LSE Group down 3.0% and Kingfisher falling 3.8%. The SMI bucked the trend, rising 0.2%, led by UBS (+1.1%) and Alcon (+1.8%). Index changes were also announced: Nokia and Engie will join the Euro Stoxx 50 on 21 September, replacing Volkswagen and Dutch utility Stellantis.
Asia — Asian equities are advancing this morning, tracking Wall Street's recovery, with the MSCI Asia Pacific gauge up ~0.5%. Japan's Nikkei had fallen 2.9% to 64,325 on Wednesday — its lowest in nearly a month — as oil prices and elevated bond yields pressured tech and auto stocks. South Korea's Kospi tumbled ~4% on Wednesday, led by chip stocks Samsung, SK Hynix and SK Square, amid rising oil and rate-hike fears. Australian ASX 200 fell 1% after the stronger-than-expected GDP print reinforced RBA rate-hike expectations. Hong Kong and mainland China markets also declined ~1% or more on Wednesday. The yen's sharp overnight move is also keeping traders alert.

Earnings this week:

Thursday: Ciena

FX:

A sharp BOJ‑driven yen rally pushed USDJPY down over 200 pips (160.39–158.22) and it closed at 158.71, amid stop‑run‑like price action and only moderate JPY futures volumes, casting doubt on actual Japanese intervention.
CAD outperformed on hawkish Bank of Canada rhetoric, with USDCAD falling to ~1.3842 and 2-year yields jumping, while Citi initiated a short USDCAD position targeting 1.35.
EURUSD slipped to 1.1588, breaking below its 21-day moving average and showing mixed Harami patterns on weekly (bearish) and daily (bullish) charts.
AUDUSD closed at 0.7169, the weakest G10 performer, as higher oil prices amid rising US–Iran tensions pressured Asia FX.
SGD's 120-day correlation with the USD has dropped to -0.94, the most inverse link since May 2024 and the most negative in Asia, positioning it as a key beneficiary if the dollar debasement trade accelerates.
KRW has transformed from Asia's worst-performing currency to its best, driven by AI-related capital inflows from chip firms repatriating overseas earnings.

Commodities:

WTI crude settled above $90 per barrel on Wednesday after a sharp two-day rally driven by US-Iran hostilities over the Strait of Hormuz. Brent had briefly hit ~$95 before easing as President Trump played down the prospect of a prolonged conflict.
Gold traded around $4,330–$4,416 per ounce, having fallen nearly 6% over the prior three sessions to a two-week low as surging global bond yields and a stronger dollar weighed on the non-yielding metal. Gold mining stocks, however, had their best August since at least 1994, driven by geopolitical and fiscal uncertainty.

Fixed income:

After a sharp sell-off that pushed the 10-year yield to its highest since October 2023 (~4.81%) and the 30-year to ~5.27% — levels last seen before Treasury Secretary Bessent expanded the buyback programme — yields edged slightly lower on Wednesday. The 1-year yield fell 2.3bps to 4.16%, the 10-year fell 0.5bps to 4.796%, and the 30-year fell 0.7bps to 5.268% by the close.
The rout spread across markets, with Japan's 10-year yield touching 3% for the first time since 1996, UK 30-year gilt yields hitting 5.89% — the highest since May 1998 — and German 10-year Bund yields reaching their highest since 2011.
Overnight swaps were pricing a full 25bp Fed rate hike at the October policy meeting, with nearly 70% odds of a hike as early as 16 September. BOJ board member Hajime Takata also left the door open for an outsized rate increase, pushing Japanese front-end yields higher during the Asian session.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

Jobs built the products. Cook built the machine. What does Apple’s new CEO build next?

Wed, 02 Sep 2026 11:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Ternus inherits 2.5 billion active devices, a huge services business and one of corporate America’s strongest cash machines.
Apple’s biggest AI question is not whether it builds the best model, but whether it keeps controlling the consumer interface.
Watch installed-base growth, services, new-product adoption and capital allocation rather than judging the Ternus era by keynote applause.

Steve Jobs built products. Tim Cook built the machine around them. John Ternus now has to decide where that machine goes next.

Ternus officially became Apple’s chief executive officer (CEO) on 1 September 2026, after 25 years at the company and a long spell running hardware engineering. Cook remains executive chairman, giving Apple something close to continuity with new management.

Investors appeared comfortable with the handover, with Apple shares rising even as the broader market fell. The bigger question is much more interesting: how much does management matter when the business already owns one of the strongest moats in the world?

The moat is already doing much of the work

Ternus does not inherit a turnaround. He inherits an ecosystem.

Apple has more than 2.5 billion active devices, while Services has grown into a business generating more than 100 billion USD a year. Every iPhone can lead to AirPods, an Apple Watch, iCloud, payments, entertainment and, eventually, another iPhone.

That is Apple’s compounding engine. Hardware brings customers in. Services deepen the relationship. A larger installed base creates more opportunities to sell both.

Capital allocation completes the picture. Apple continues to return tens of billions of dollars through buybacks and dividends. For investors influenced by Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, this is where management matters most.

Apple does not need managerial heroics. It needs discipline. Ternus must protect the ecosystem, allocate enormous cash flows sensibly and avoid expensive distractions. A great moat gives management room to make mistakes. It does not make those mistakes free.

AI may test who really owns the customer

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the clearest strategic challenge.

Apple has looked unusually slow while OpenAI, Alphabet and others pushed ahead. But it may not need to build the biggest or smartest AI model to remain powerful.

Its advantage sits closer to the customer. Apple controls the phone, operating system, headphones, watch and computer around them. If AI models become increasingly interchangeable, Apple can let others spend heavily building the engines while it controls the dashboard.

That is why features such as Live Translation on AirPods matter. They turn AI from something impressive in a demo into something useful in everyday life. That is much closer to Apple’s traditional playbook than launching another chatbot.

The risk is that the dashboard itself changes. If consumers increasingly start with an AI assistant rather than an app or operating system, Apple could lose some control over the customer relationship. Ternus must decide what Apple needs to own and where partnerships are enough.

The next iPhone does not have to be another iPhone

Hardware still matters, particularly with a hardware engineer now in charge.

Apple is preparing products ranging from a foldable iPhone to smarter home devices and more capable AirPods. None needs to become the next iPhone to create value.

A foldable phone can encourage upgrades. A home device can extend Apple’s ecosystem into another room. Smarter AirPods can make the iPhone more useful without replacing it.

That may be the more realistic innovation test for the Ternus era. Apple does not necessarily need another revolutionary category. It needs a steady stream of products and features that make the ecosystem more useful and leaving it slightly less attractive.

Where the machine could slow

The biggest risk is that AI changes consumer behaviour faster than Apple adapts. Investors should watch whether Siri becomes genuinely useful, not simply better on stage.

Product innovation matters too. Vision Pro showed that technical achievement does not automatically create a mass market. Supply-chain, regulatory and geopolitical pressures add another layer.

Early warning signs would include slowing installed-base growth, weaker Services momentum or rising investment without better customer engagement.

Investor playbook

Follow the ecosystem: installed devices and Services growing together matter more than one quarter of iPhone sales.
Separate AI demos from behaviour: watch usage, upgrades and developer adoption.
Judge hardware by ecosystem value: smaller products can matter if they strengthen customer retention.
Watch the cash: buybacks, acquisitions and capital spending show where management sees future returns.

The machine gets a new driver

Jobs built the products. Cook turned them into an extraordinarily efficient compounding machine.

Ternus inherits something different: a machine that already works.

His challenge is not simply to invent the next breakthrough. It is to decide where Apple must lead, where it can follow and where restraint is the better choice. AI, foldables and the home will test those decisions. For investors, the most important question is not whether Ternus changes Apple quickly. It is whether he understands which parts of the machine need changing at all.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Apple

Shein finally goes public. Now comes the harder test

Tue, 01 Sep 2026 11:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Shein’s advantage comes from testing tiny product batches and scaling winners quickly, not simply from selling cheap clothes.
New tariffs, parcel fees and regulation are making that model more expensive and harder to reproduce across markets.
Inditex and H&M show why brand, inventory discipline and distribution can matter more than pure speed.

Shein taught fashion to behave a little like a social-media feed: test something, watch the reaction, then produce more of what people click on.

On 1 September 2026, the China-founded, Singapore-headquartered retailer finally reached the Hong Kong stock market after failed attempts to list in New York and London. Its initial public offering (IPO) valued the company at roughly USD 26.5 billion, far below the near USD 100 billion valuation reached in 2022. Shares traded below the offer price during their first session.

For investors, the question is not whether Shein can still sell a lot of clothes. It is whether the machinery behind those sales remains as powerful when its regulatory and cost advantages start to fade.

The business model is the product

Shein’s real innovation sits behind the screen.

Traditional fashion retailers often decide months ahead what to sell and in what quantities. Shein instead launches designs in batches as small as 100 to 200 items, watches demand in real time and quickly reorders the products that work.

That can reduce unsold stock and lets Shein offer huge variety without committing as much money upfront. In simple terms, Shein tries to make demand first and inventory second.

But part of this machine was built around cheap cross-border shipping from China. The United States has removed an important duty exemption for low-value packages, while the European Union introduced a EUR 3 fee on many low-value e-commerce parcels in July.

Those changes do not destroy Shein’s model. They make it less frictionless. Local warehouses and production can reduce tariff exposure, but also add cost and complexity. The test is whether Shein can preserve its speed while becoming a more conventional global retailer.

Zara and H&M are slower, but harder to dismiss

This is where Europe’s established fashion groups become useful comparisons.

Inditex owns Zara and combines stores, online sales, tight inventory control and frequent product refreshes. Its first-quarter 2026 results showed sales growth and stronger gross profitability.

H&M is in a different position. Sales have been softer, but the Swedish group has improved profitability and reduced inventory. Its latest results show that better stock management and cost control can still create value when revenue barely moves.

Neither company can match Shein’s endless digital assortment. But speed is not the only useful measure.

Inditex and H&M have established brands, physical distribution and long operating histories. They have already navigated fashion cycles, recessions and competitive shifts. Shein now has to prove that its newer model can survive a similar test.

The hidden cost of becoming normal

The IPO gives Shein capital, visibility and a public valuation. It also removes some of the mystery.

Investors can now watch whether growth returns, margins recover and higher logistics costs eat into each order. The old private-market valuation matters much less than what the business can earn under today’s rules.

The risks are visible. Regulation could make ultra-cheap cross-border fashion more expensive. Competition from Temu, Zara and H&M could push marketing costs higher. Governance also deserves attention because Shein’s founders retain overwhelming voting control after the listing.

Early warning signs include weaker repeat purchases, rising fulfilment and marketing costs, lower margins, or evidence that localising production makes the supply chain less efficient.

Investor playbook

Compare growth with the cost required to produce it. Faster sales matter less if fulfilment and marketing costs rise faster.
Watch inventory and margins together. Strong retailers sell the right products without relying heavily on discounts.
Treat regulation as part of the business model. An advantage built on exemptions is less durable when those exemptions disappear.
Compare Shein with Inditex and H&M on durability, not only growth.

Speed was never the whole moat

Shein’s story began with speed. It could spot a trend, test it cheaply and scale the winners before traditional retailers had finished planning the season. The IPO does not make that advantage disappear, but it changes the question investors need to ask. The contest is no longer about who can move fastest under the old rules.

It is about who can keep moving when the rules, costs and expectations become tougher. Inditex and H&M show that slower systems can still create durable economics through brand, inventory discipline and distribution. Shein now has to prove that its digital engine can do the same. A fashion feed can refresh every second. A listed company has to compound for years.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Initial Public Offering (IPO)

Asia Market Quick Take – 01 September 2026

Tue, 01 Sep 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 1 Sep, 2026

Key points:

Macro: US-Iran resume hostilities. Bessent tells BoJ to raise rates.
Equities: Dow fell 0.7% as AMZN -2.5% on ad lawsuit; Nvidia to invest $3.5 in MediaTek
FX: Softening USD extends August decline; Yen stays near 160 despite BOJ speculation
Commodities: Crude up on Hormuz fears; gold down on rate repricing
Fixed income: US 10y yield hits 19-month high, >4.75%

------------------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

Renewed US-Iran clashes are heightening energy supply risks as US forces hit Iranian launchers and Trump threatens Kharg Island. Oil still transits the Strait of Hormuz despite a supertanker fire from naval mines, while Russian refinery strikes are tightening global refining capacity and lifting fuel margins.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent reportedly told BOJ Governor Ueda and Finance Minister Katayama at the G20 in North Carolina that Japan’s next move should be a rate hike, adding he expects a stronger yen following BOJ and government action.
UK shop price inflation rose to 1.5% in August 2026 from 0.9% in July, the highest since February 2024, driven by higher energy and input costs. Food prices climbed 2.8% and non-food 0.9%, while UK CPI was 2.9% in July, with the BoE expecting a 3.2% peak later in the year.
Germany’s annual inflation rose to 2.9% in August 2026, a four-month high but just below the 3.0% forecast, driven by energy inflation jumping to 10.5%, while food inflation slowed to 0.1% and core inflation held at 2.4%.
The Dallas Fed’s Texas manufacturing index rose to 11.6 in August 2026 from 1.3 in July, its highest since January 2025, with stronger production, new orders, shipments, and capacity use. Price pressures stayed high, uncertainty remained elevated, but firms turned more optimistic about the next six months.
Australia’s Melbourne Institute inflation gauge rose 0.5% in August 2026, down from 1.0% in July, suggesting easing but still elevated price pressures. Annual inflation slowed to 3.5% in July, above the RBA’s 2–3% target, and the bank expects a gradual return to target by late 2027 amid ongoing global and domestic risks.
Japan’s retail sales rose 4% year-on-year in July 2026, beating the 3% forecast and up from 0.6% in June, led by a 16.2% jump in motor vehicle sales and broad rebounds across most categories. Month-on-month, sales climbed 2.4% after a 3.9% fall in June.

Equities:

US — The S&P 500 fell 0.3% to 7,686 on Monday, its second consecutive decline, as Middle East tensions and rising oil prices weighed on sentiment. The Dow shed 0.7% to 53,186, while the Nasdaq 100 edged up 0.1%. Nine of 11 S&P sectors closed lower, led by communication services and utilities. Amazon was the largest drag on the S&P 500, falling 2.5% after the FTC filed a lawsuit over ad pricing, while Edison International collapsed 23.1%. Nvidia will invest $3.5b in Taiwan’s MediaTek to deepen collaboration in the custom AI chips space. In after-hours trade, GameStop rose 2.85% after preliminary Q2 net sales of $780–800m beat the $757m consensus.
EU — European equities slid on Monday, with the Stoxx 600 falling 0.6% to 651 and the Euro Stoxx 50 dropping 1.0% to 6,420, as rising oil prices on the US-Iran flare-up weighed on sentiment. Trading volumes were approximately 40% below normal with London closed for a bank holiday. ASML fell 2.9%, leading the Stoxx 600 lower. Siemens Energy dropped 5.0% and was the DAX's biggest decliner, with the index falling 1.2% to 26,258. The SMI fell 0.8%, led lower by Holcim (-2.7%) and Roche (-1.6%). Oil majors TotalEnergies, Shell and Eni were among the few gainers.
Asia — The Kospi initially plunged as much as 3.6% before erasing all losses to close up 0.5% at 6,820, aided by pension fund buying of approximately 120 billion won in tech names over a 20-minute window. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both recovered from losses exceeding 4% to close little changed. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index ended little changed after falling more than 1% at the open. China's CSI 300 rose 0.3%. In Hong Kong, PSBC surged 8.8% after first-half net interest income met estimates. Biren Technology jumped as much as 17% after reporting a narrower first-half loss and a sharp jump in revenue. Asian equity futures are pointing lower on Tuesday, with higher crude above $86 and elevated Treasury yields the key headwinds, though overnight SOX gains should cushion declines in memory-heavy markets. Shein raised HK$13.6b ($1.7b) in its Hong Kong IPO, selling about 280m shares at HK$48.56 and valuing it just over $26b—below H&M’s ~$30b. In gray-market trading, shares fell up to 17% to HK$40.04 by late Monday and it starts trading today.

Earnings this week:

Tuesday: SHEIN (IPO), Nio, Sino Land, Palo Alto Networks, Medtronic
Wednesday: Broadcom, Snowflake
Thursday: Ciena

FX:

USD starts the Asia session softer, extending August’s decline, with the Dollar Index down 0.39% on the month and 0.19% on the final day, as markets weigh higher oil on Iran tensions, hawkish Warsh-driven Fed hike odds, and potential yen-supportive BOJ/MOF action.
AUD and NZD outperform in the Asia session. AUDUSD is described as flat amid the oil spike and hawkish Fed bets keeping traders cautious.
EUR gained 0.76% against the USD in August — its second consecutive monthly gain — and rose 0.27% on Aug 31 alone, snapping a three-session losing streak. It sits 3.53% below its 52-week high of 1.2042.
USDJPY is marginally softer at 159.73 despite a strong Japan consumption print, which the yen failed to benefit from. Bessent reportedly held talks with BOJ Governor Ueda and Finance Minister Katayama, with reports suggesting Bessent expects Japan to take action to boost the yen and signalling a BOJ rate-hike chance.
USD lost 1.21% vs. CAD in August — its largest two-month decline since January 2026 — and fell 0.37% on Aug 31.
Both NOK and SEK firmer, consistent with the broader USD softness and elevated oil prices supporting NOK.

Commodities:

WTI crude rose 2.8% on Monday to settle near $86 a barrel — its biggest single-session gain in three weeks — after US forces struck an island in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran retaliated against the UAE and Jordan. WTI extended gains above $86.30 in early Asian trading on Tuesday. Brent settled near $90 on Monday. The renewed fighting has revived fears of prolonged disruptions to energy flows through the strait.
Gold steadied around $4,445 an ounce after falling more than 3.5% over the prior two sessions. The metal is caught between safe-haven demand from Middle East tensions and headwinds from rising Fed rate-hike expectations, which have boosted real yields and pressured bullion.

Fixed income:

The 10-year Treasury yield topped 4.75% on Monday for the first time since January 2025, driven by rising oil prices amplifying inflation concerns and cementing bets on a September Fed rate hike. The 30-year yield rose to 5.248%, extending a four-day run higher. The long end led the selloff, steepening the yield curve after Friday's sharp flattening post-Warsh.
JPMorgan's rates strategists unwound their 2s10s steepener recommendation at a 7.6bp loss following Warsh's "somewhat more hawkish than expected" Jackson Hole address. The bank had previously flagged that Warsh's speech added to his credibility on the inflation fight, making the steepener untenable in the near term.
JGB futures are expected to fall as elevated oil prices and Bessent's call for BOJ rate hikes weigh on sentiment. The 10-year JGB auction will be closely watched for its read-across to global bond markets.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

The FX Trader: Restrained USD reaction to Warsh hawkishness

Mon, 31 Aug 2026 12:05:00 Z

Incoming data to take over this week.

The latest

The market was caught off guard by Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish speech at the Fed’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming symposium on Friday. The reaction function – more in gold and US treasuries than in the stronger US dollar – was to a large degree the US Treasury’s fault. When the Bessent Treasury recently announced the doubling of long-term treasury buybacks on August 19th and the idea was even floated (according to two Treasury officials cited by CNBC’s Steve Liesman) of the Treasury using its large “General Account” to throw its weight into supporting the US treasury market, it felt like US officialdom was circling the wagons around the US treasury market. And with increasing talk in recent years of “fiscal dominance”, in which US fiscal policy priorities far outweigh anything the Fed might consider doing with monetary policy, it was thought that the new Fed chair was brought on board to support the Treasury.

Instead, Chair Warsh has consistently made all the “right” orthodox noises on Fed independence, on the need to get ahead of inflation and on the sanctity of the 2% inflation target. That was the impression at his first presser as Fed Chair back at the June FOMC meeting, and it was the impression on Friday, even if he continues to avoid explicit forward guidance for the September rate hike decision. Warsh said that the Fed has “work to do” if inflation doesn’t retreat and said that financial conditions weren’t holding the economy back, while adjusting short-term interest rates are the Fed’s “predominant tool”. His rhetoric Friday shocked US treasury yields higher, especially at the short end of the curve as more Fed tightening was brought forward. The US 2-year rose more than 10 basis points at one point and the odds of a hike at the September meeting rose above 60%. And yet, we are still talking about a “terminal” Fed policy rate, if they do resume hiking, of only 50 basis points higher than the current rate – it would likely take considerable incoming data evidence on the inflation front to take Fed expectations higher still, assuming the labor market remains in its “low hire, low fire” state. The USD spiked higher, but we only trade back to 1.1600 in EURUSD now versus 1.1640 before the Warsh speech. USDJPY has reset back to levels prevailing just before Warsh spoke – interesting to note there that Japan said it had plowed over JPY 15 trillion (close to USD 100 billion) into defending its currency over the last month, while Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the BoJ would “do the right thing” in making coming policy decisions.

Bottom line: Follow on USD strength from here would likely have to come from incoming data more than the specific implications of this speech. We’ll get a decent amount of that this week (see preview below) but also watch oil prices and next week’s CPI data point as well. The longer end of the US yield curve and whether yields are positively correlated with the US dollar or uncorrelated is also critical. Recently, long US yields and the US dollar have arguably been slightly negatively correlated if there is any relationship at all. Given the timing of the US Treasury’s soft “intervention” - its announcement of buyback increases - with the break of the benchmark 30-year T-bond yield to 19-year highs, it is logical to conclude that the next US Treasury policy measures to support the treasury market will be reached for quickly if, for example, the benchmark US 10-year treasury yield breaks sharply above the recent 4.75% cycle high that was tested multiple times.

Chart focus: EURUSD
Note how the EURUSD sell-off almost neatly reverses the reaction to the Treasury buyback announcement from August 19th. This is a short-term reset of that extension to the upside, not yet a full reversal, which only starts to threaten if the price action continues down through 1.1580 (the previous high), although a punch down through 1.1450-1.1500 would be needed to develop any downside momentum and a retest of the longer-term range lows. The upside path is simpler, as a reversal of this latest sell-off wave would suggest the recent larger bull move off the sub-1.1400 base remains intact. In the big picture, EURUSD has been impossibly mired in the 1.1400-1.1800 range for over fourteen months except for a few spikes. The pair is almost exactly in the very middle of the range of the last many months.

Source: Saxo

Looking ahead

It’s a busy week ahead for US macro data as we watch whether the market extends its reaction to Fed Chair Warsh’s speech. This week we get the usual first-of-month data with the August ISM Manufacturing survey up on Tuesday, which also sees the July JOLTS job opening survey (poor quality and old-ish data, but the market reacts to surprises). On Wednesday we get the August ADP private payrolls change numbers (a typical soft +50k number expected there). On Thursday it’s the ISM Services survey. Finally, Friday sees the August jobs report ahead of the three-day Labor Day weekend. The market is expecting nonfarm payrolls growth of +50k after -23k in July, +20k in June and +63k in May.

The RBNZ set to continue it hiking cycle Wednesday.
The Bank is expected to follow up on its first-of-the-cycle July hike with another hike on Wednesday, with the forward guidance in focus as the market sees at least two hikes over the next three meetings, including this week’s.

Bank of Canada on Wednesday.
The Bank of Canada meeting will likely have Governor Tiff Macklem and company sitting on their hands, with little sense of being in a rush to do otherwise. Canada’s core inflation measure, the “trimmed mean” dropped to a more than five-year low in June and July of 1.9% after a persistent slide in the previous months. As well, the US and Canada are engaged in a trade tiff that will hit Canada far harder if the situation escalates.

FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.
Note: If unfamiliar with the FX board, please see a video tutorial for understanding and using the FX Board.

No surprise to see that the two weakest currencies (SEK, CHF) are Europe’s lowest yielding currencies, with CHF weakest while SEK is also weak from two angles: traditionally it is a pro-cyclical currency and traditionally does poorly when risk sentiment is on the defensive, but it’s more likely that the Riksbank’s low 1.75% policy rate and lack of urgency in moving that rate higher is the largest driver of SEK weakness, notable since Friday as EURSEK burst to a new 12 month high above 11.115. While the US dollar has turned around a bit in momentum terms, there is a lot more wood to chop to suggest it is powering up for a larger strengthening move. Sterling actually traded weaker Monday after BoE Governor Bailey said that the BoE would be happy to wait for a while before deciding on policy moves due to the slackening UK labor market. He also said that AI risks triggering a global economic downturn and risks to global financial stability.

Table: NEW FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.

AUDNZD is attempting to establish a new uptrend, with the Wednesday RBNZ meeting a key test there. It is far too early to point to new USD developments and the deep blue colors in so many pairs point to the very low volatility (often meeting lack of conviction in market direction) nearly everywhere outside of gold and silver.

John J. Hardy

Global Head of Macro Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Forex Highlighted articles Trump Version 2 - Traders FR US Actualites et Analyses EURUSD USDJPY UKMustRead

Broadcom vs Marvell: the custom-chip boom has an expectations problem

Mon, 31 Aug 2026 11:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Custom AI chips are becoming a second growth engine alongside Nvidia’s GPUs, with Broadcom and Marvell competing for Big Tech designs.
Marvell shows how strong results can disappoint when investors have already priced in even faster growth.
Broadcom’s Wednesday earnings will test both the custom-chip boom and investors’ increasingly demanding expectations.

A company can report record revenue, raise its outlook and tell investors that an important business will more than double next year. Its shares can still fall 10%.

Marvell Technology managed exactly that last week.

The chip designer raised its longer-term revenue expectations as demand for artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure accelerated. Yet Marvell closed at 216.62 USD on 28 August, down 10.3%, because investors wanted its new Google custom-chip partnership to generate meaningful revenue sooner.

That reaction offers a useful preview for Broadcom, which reports fiscal third-quarter results on Wednesday, 2 September. It also captures one of today’s most important investing lessons: great company plus great results does not automatically equal a great stock return. Expectations sit in the middle.

The chip is getting personal

Nvidia built the AI boom around the graphics processing unit (GPU), a flexible chip capable of handling many different computing tasks.

But flexibility is not always the cheapest option.

As AI moves from training models towards repeatedly running them for millions of users, known as inference, efficiency matters more. Google, Meta, OpenAI and other large technology companies increasingly want processors designed around their own workloads.

Think of the difference between a Swiss Army knife and a factory machine. Nvidia sells an exceptionally capable Swiss Army knife. Custom silicon is the machine built to perform one job repeatedly and efficiently.

This creates an expanding market for companies such as Broadcom and Marvell. They help customers turn their own chip ideas into products and also supply much of the networking technology connecting thousands of processors inside data centres.

The race is becoming more competitive. Google recently expanded its relationship with Marvell across custom processors, networking and memory technologies. The agreement could eventually generate up to 120 billion USD of orders through fiscal 2033. Importantly, Google appears to be adding Marvell alongside Broadcom rather than simply replacing Broadcom.

Broadcom, meanwhile, is helping Meta develop its Meta Training and Inference Accelerator (MTIA), with production of the latest generation expected to start in September. It has also developed OpenAI’s first custom inference processor, Jalapeño, which is expected to begin deployment by the end of 2026.

The important point is not that custom chips replace Nvidia. Big technology companies increasingly use several types of processors. The AI semiconductor market is becoming larger and more specialised at the same time.

Marvell delivered. Expectations moved faster

That sounds ideal for Marvell.

Quarterly revenue reached 2.74 billion USD, while management lifted its fiscal 2027 revenue outlook to around 12 billion USD and fiscal 2028 expectations to around 18 billion USD. Custom-chip revenue is expected to more than double next year.

The problem was timing.

Management indicated that the largest contribution from Google would arrive from fiscal 2029. Investors had already pushed Marvell shares sharply higher this year partly because they expected custom silicon to become a much larger business.

The result was therefore good, but the change in expectations was not good enough.

Compare that with Salesforce and CrowdStrike one day earlier.

Salesforce, which sells software that helps companies manage customers and sales, raised its annual outlook and showed better demand for its AI products. Its shares closed at 252.05 USD, up 22.6%.

CrowdStrike, a cybersecurity company, reported record net new annual recurring revenue (ARR), a measure of new subscription business. Its shares closed at 227.96 USD, up 20.5%.

Why such different reactions? Salesforce and CrowdStrike entered earnings carrying fears that AI could disrupt software. Strong results reduced that fear. Marvell entered earnings carrying enormous optimism. Strong results confirmed much of the existing story rather than improving it.

That is the expectations game in one earnings week.

Broadcom now has to clear its own bar

Broadcom faces an unusually high hurdle on Wednesday.

Last quarter, its AI semiconductor revenue reached 10.8 billion USD, up 143% from a year earlier. Management expects roughly 16 billion USD this quarter, representing growth of more than 200%. Total revenue guidance stands around 29.4 billion USD.

Those numbers would normally look extraordinary. The complication is that extraordinary has become normal for leading AI companies.

Broadcom learned this in June. Revenue grew 48%, but still came slightly below market expectations. Its 16 billion USD AI forecast also fell just short of what analysts had hoped for. The business was booming. The expectation bar was simply higher.

Investors therefore need to look beyond whether Broadcom “beats”. More important will be what management says about the next stage: how quickly custom processors ramp, whether new customers add meaningful revenue, and whether AI networking grows alongside compute.

Broadcom’s advantage is that it can potentially collect revenue twice. It helps design specialised processors, then sells networking and connectivity products needed to make large clusters of those processors work together.

Risks: a bigger market can still disappoint

Custom silicon remains tied to a relatively small number of enormous customers. A delayed chip programme, lower infrastructure spending or a customer moving more work to another supplier can shift billions of future revenue.

Competition is also increasing. Marvell’s Google win shows that customers may deliberately use several suppliers. That expands the overall opportunity, but makes market share less predictable.

Finally, expectations matter. When investors already assume years of exceptional growth, even small delays can create large share-price reactions without meaning the long-term business has suddenly deteriorated.

Investor playbook

Separate results from expectations. Ask what investors appeared to expect before earnings, not simply whether revenue grew.
Follow timelines, not deal headlines. A large contract matters differently if revenue arrives next quarter rather than three years later.
Watch customer diversification. More custom-chip customers can strengthen growth, while supplier diversification can increase competitive pressure.
Treat share reactions as information, not verdicts. A falling stock can reflect lower expectations rather than worsening business fundamentals.

The business reports the numbers. The market grades the expectations

Broadcom’s earnings on 2 September will therefore test more than one company. They will test whether custom silicon is becoming a durable second pillar of AI infrastructure alongside Nvidia’s GPUs, and how much of that opportunity investors already assume.

Marvell has already shown the strange arithmetic of an optimistic market: revenue can rise, forecasts can rise and the share price can still fall. Salesforce and CrowdStrike showed the reverse when good results removed a major fear.

For investors, that distinction matters. Earnings tell you how the business performed. The share-price reaction tells you how that performance compared with the story investors had already paid for.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Theme - Artificial intelligence Artificial Intelligence

Market Quick Take - Warsh turns hawkish as Hormuz risk returns - 31 August 2026

Mon, 31 Aug 2026 06:00:00 Z

Market drivers and catalysts

Macro: A weekend strike near Hormuz collided with a hawkish Fed chair to reset the week
Equities: US stocks slipped on hawkish Fed signals, Europe rebounded, Asia recovered from early losses as rate fears and higher oil hit technology.
Digital Assets: Miners and treasury companies were sold hard while the coins themselves barely moved
Commodities: Crude jumps on renewed supply risks as Warsh drives precious metals slump; speculators rush into agriculture at record pace
Fixed Income: US Treasury yield curve bear flattens on hawkish Fed Chair Warsh speech Friday. Global yields follow US Treasury yields higher.
Currencies: USD stronger on hawkish Warsh speech, USDJPY briefly traded above 160.00.

Macro

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish speech at the Fed’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming symposium on Friday as he declared that inflation is not slowing and that interest rates are the “predominant tool” for the Fed to achieve its mandate, though he continued to criticize the notion of the Fed’s former forward guidance policy or to provide any specific hints on policy tightening. “I stand here today committed to a discipline, not to a decision”.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects the Bank of Japan will “do the right thing” on policy and said he expected to meet with Bank of Japan governor Ueda on the sidelines of the upcoming G20 summit, which starts today in North Carolina. Japan’s Ministry of Finance said Friday that its intervention to support the JPY had deployed over JPY 15 trillion (USD 96 billion).
A weekend military exchange reset the geopolitical backdrop. The US struck Iranian rocket launchers reportedly preparing to mine the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, its first such attack in over a month, alongside increased sanctions pressure. Roughly 6 to 8 million barrels of crude still transit the strait each day. An Iranian official said renewed talks with Washington are not impossible.
More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1200 – Germany Flash Aug. CPI
UK Summer Bank Holiday

Earnings events

Tuesday: Palo Alto Networks, Medtronic, MongoDB, Credo Technology, NIO, GitLab, Dell Technologies
Wednesday: Broadcom, Snowflake, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, NetApp, Five Below
Thursday: Zscaler, Lululemon, Ciena, Samsara, DocuSign, Planet Labs

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 fell 0.3%, the Dow slipped less than 0.1% and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.7% on Friday as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks lifted rate expectations and hit technology shares. Nvidia fell 4.6%, while Marvell Technology sank 10.3% despite beating estimates as its outlook failed to clear elevated AI expectations. PayPal tumbled 12.7% after Stripe and Advent International abandoned takeover talks, while Amazon gained 4.0% after an analyst raised its price target on improving AI-driven retail efficiency. Markets now turn to US jobs data and the September Fed decision.
Europe: The Stoxx 600 rose 0.5%, Germany’s DAX gained 0.8%, the FTSE 100 added 0.3% and France’s CAC 40 rebounded 1% on Friday as French stocks recovered and autos led gains. BMW jumped 4.5% and Forvia rose 5.1% after Citi placed both on positive catalyst watches, pointing to depressed expectations and potential upside from upcoming company and policy events. EssilorLuxottica gained 2.4% after announcing a share buyback, while French banks also recovered from Thursday’s selloff. European investors now face the same uncomfortable mix of firmer oil prices and higher-rate risk.
Asia: Asian equities recovered sharply from steep opening losses on Monday, with Japan’s Nikkei down 0.2% and South Korea’s Kospi 0.3% lower after earlier falling more than 2% and 3%, respectively. Markets initially sold off as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish remarks and higher oil prices raised concerns over rates and inflation, but buyers quickly returned to technology shares. Chinese brokerages remained in focus after listed securities firms reported combined first-half profits up more than 40%, while BYD said overseas revenue exceeded domestic revenue for the first time in the first half of 2026.
More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Digital Assets

The listed crypto complex was sold hard on Friday even as the coins barely moved over the weekend. IREN fell 12.53% after fiscal fourth-quarter results in which AI cloud revenue overtook mining for the first time but impairments weighed. Marathon lost 10.11%, CleanSpark 9.96%, Cipher 9.54% and Riot 9.05%, with Strategy down 7.34% and Coinbase 6.33%.
US spot bitcoin funds drew about USD 924 million over the 24 to 28 August week, keeping the month’s intake above USD 3 billion. Flow was uneven, with IBIT taking USD 228 million against redemptions elsewhere.

Commodities

Crude jumped, with Brent trading back above USD 90, as fresh fighting flared in the Middle East and the US signalled it was likely to unveil new secondary sanctions on Iran. The US struck Iranian rocket launchers that were reportedly preparing to deploy mines into the Strait of Hormuz, while Jordan’s army intercepted eight missiles after Tehran’s military claimed attacks against American forces in the kingdom. These developments have once again reduced the prospects of bringing the conflict to an end. However, with an estimated 6–8 million barrels per day of crude flowing through the Strait, the upside risk is for now being capped.
Gold led the precious metals sector sharply lower following Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech, in which he pledged to fight inflation, lifting expectations that the Fed could raise rates before year-end. The weakness extended into Monday’s session after bullion closed back below its 200-day moving average on Friday, currently at USD 4,528, forcing traders to reassess the short-term technical outlook. The next key support is around USD 4,328, the 50% retracement of the August rally. Focus remains on the dollar and bond yields, while the longer-term fiscal challenge posed by US debt at around USD 40 trillion has not disappeared.
The recent rally across key agricultural commodities, supported by war and weather-related supply concerns, has triggered a record two-week accumulation of speculative length. In the two weeks to 25 August, the managed-money net long across ten major grain and soft commodity futures jumped by a record 523,000 contracts to more than 1 million contracts, the highest in four years and representing a nominal value of more than USD 40 billion. The speed of the turnaround has been particularly striking, potentially leaving the recently established longs exposed to a sudden change in the bullish narrative.
More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

The US Treasury yield curve bear flattened Friday in reaction to the more hawkish than expected speech from Fed Chair Warsh. Yields eased slightly in early Monday trading in Asia, but the benchmark two-year yield is still some seven basis points higher than it was before Warsh’s speech, trading near the top of the range since late 2024 as the odds of a September 16 FOMC rate hike rose above 50%. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield is some three basis points higher than before the speech at 4.71% as the Treasury market eyes the key 4.75% area that has marked the top of the range on multiple occasions over the last month.
Global bond yields rose in line with US Treasuries late Friday and early Monday in the wake of Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish speech. The benchmark German two-year yield lifted four basis points to close the week just below 2.91%, the highest level for the year and since mid-2024. Japan’s benchmark two-year JGB yield rose two basis points to 1.73%, a new modern high since the mid-1990s.

Currencies

The US dollar rose sharply on Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish speech. USDJPY traded through 160.00 Friday and briefly in early Monday trading for the first time since the official intervention in late July and at the beginning of August. By early European hours, USDJPY returned to the 159.80 area, only slightly above the levels trading before Warsh’s speech. The reaction in EURUSD was stickier, as it remained below 1.1600 by early Monday in Europe, solidly below the 1.1640–1.1650 area trading before Warsh’s speech.
The Swedish krona stands out among the weaker G10 currencies as the Riksbank has yet to hike its policy rate for the cycle and is seen as likely slow to do so. EURSEK rose from 11.09 to nearly 11.15 in the wake of US Fed Chair Warsh’s speech on Friday, posting its highest level in almost exactly a year.
More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis

Saxo Bank

After Nvidia, where does the AI money go next?

Fri, 28 Aug 2026 11:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Nvidia confirms strong AI computing demand, but the spending chain is becoming much broader.
Proprietary data and workflows may gain value as powerful AI models become easier to access.
More autonomous AI creates new needs around identity, security and recovery.

Nvidia’s results on 26 August 2026 confirmed that demand for artificial intelligence (AI) computing remains enormous. But this earnings week also suggested that the AI opportunity is starting to spread well beyond the graphics processing unit (GPU).

Across chips, software and cybersecurity, a clearer picture is emerging of what comes next. AI increasingly needs three things to scale: compute to run, context to become useful, and control to be trusted.

Compute is becoming more specialised

Marvell designs chips and networking technology for data centres. Revenue rose 37% to a record 2.74 billion USD, with Data Center revenue up 46%.

Its results also show the gap between winning a design and earning the revenue. Marvell secured a major custom-chip agreement with Google, but management said the biggest contribution should arrive later, particularly from fiscal 2029.

Synopsys sells software and intellectual property used to design complex chips and systems. Revenue reached 2.48 billion USD, up about 42%, while management raised its outlook and pointed to AI-driven complexity.

As hyperscalers build more customised infrastructure, value can spread towards companies that help design, connect and optimise specialised systems.

Context may become software’s new moat

Powerful AI models increasingly have similar general capabilities. What they do not automatically have is a company’s customer history, payroll records, engineering designs and business rules.

That gives established software companies an interesting asset: context.

Salesforce stores customer and sales data. Agentforce and Data 360 annual recurring revenue (ARR) reached nearly 3.9 billion USD, up more than 210%. Its expanded Anthropic partnership makes the logic clear: Salesforce can make Claude more useful by connecting it to trusted data, workflows and governance.

Workday manages human resources and finance processes. AI products generated more than 25% of new annual contract value, while more than 5,500 customers now use at least one Workday agent.

Autodesk extends the argument into engineering and construction. Its software sits inside project workflows, giving AI access to rich technical context. Management argues that useful AI in the physical world requires trusted project data.

If intelligence becomes easier to access, the moat can migrate from owning the model to owning what makes the model useful.

Control becomes more valuable as AI gains autonomy

The third layer appears when AI stops answering questions and starts taking actions.

A company running thousands of agents must know which agent is acting, what it can access and how to recover if something goes wrong.

CrowdStrike protects devices and cloud systems. Its Falcon Flex ARR exceeded 2.29 billion USD, up 101%, suggesting customers increasingly want a broader security platform.

Okta manages digital identities and access. Revenue grew a more modest 11%, which is a useful reminder that a convincing AI story is not the same as proven monetisation. Still, every agent needs an identity and permissions.

Rubrik adds recovery and data protection. Subscription ARR rose 33% to 1.66 billion USD, while its strategy increasingly includes securing AI-agent activity.

More autonomous AI can therefore create some of the security spending needed to make further adoption possible.

The risks are moving too

Custom-chip projects can take years to scale. Software companies may own valuable data without successfully charging more for AI access. Security vendors may face tougher competition as larger platforms bundle more tools.

Watch delayed production ramps, weak AI-related contract growth and rising usage that fails to become recurring revenue.

Investor playbook

Separate AI exposure into compute, context and control rather than treating every AI company as the same trade.
Track conversion, not announcements. Design wins, pilots and agent usage matter when they become revenue and cash flow.
Ask whether AI strengthens an existing moat, such as proprietary data or embedded workflows.
Keep diversification in mind. The AI value chain is widening, but expectations can widen even faster.

From compute to context and control

Nvidia remains the clearest proof that the AI infrastructure boom is alive. Yet this earnings week suggests the opportunity is becoming broader and more layered. Marvell and Synopsys help build specialised infrastructure. Salesforce, Workday and Autodesk give AI the business context it needs. CrowdStrike, Okta and Rubrik help companies trust it enough to act.

That does not make every company in the chain a winner. It does give investors a more useful map. The first phase rewarded scarce computing power. The next may reward scarce context and control. Compute makes AI possible, context makes it useful, and control makes it deployable at scale.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Theme - Artificial intelligence Artificial Intelligence

Software’s next growth problem: more customers or more from each customer?

Wed, 26 Aug 2026 08:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Intuit is accepting slower near-term growth to attract and retain more customers.
Zoom is trying to sell more products to customers already using its platform.
For investors, where growth comes from can matter as much as how fast revenue grows.

Growing a software company used to look almost suspiciously simple. Add customers, raise prices and sell more licences.

Intuit and Zoom Communications show why the next stage is harder.

Intuit, which owns TurboTax, QuickBooks, Credit Karma and Mailchimp, expects revenue growth to slow from 14% in fiscal 2026 to 9% to 10% in fiscal 2027. Management is deliberately prioritising customer growth, including through pricing and higher spending to attract customers.

Zoom is taking almost the opposite route. Its video-meeting business is mature, so it wants existing customers to buy more products.

For investors, the contrast offers a useful lesson. Revenue growth is only the final number. The interesting part is how a company creates it.

Intuit lowers the toll

Intuit has spent years benefiting from strong brands, recurring demand and pricing power. Now it is testing whether charging customers less today can create more value tomorrow.

Management says pricing has become an important reason some TurboTax customers leave. The company is responding by widening access and investing more in attracting customers.

That comes with a cost. TurboTax revenue is expected to grow just 2% to 3% in fiscal 2027, while Mailchimp revenue could be flat or fall slightly.

The key question is simple: is Intuit voluntarily lowering the toll to get more cars onto the bridge, or is competition forcing it to lower the toll?

The first can be smart investment. Lower prices can bring in customers who remain for years and later buy other services. The second is more concerning because it can signal weakening pricing power.

Investors therefore need to look beyond slower revenue growth. Customer growth, retention and future spending per customer will tell us whether the sacrifice is paying off.

Zoom builds more rooms

Zoom has a different problem. Finding another pandemic-sized wave of video-meeting users is unlikely to be a sensible business plan.

Instead, Zoom is expanding what existing business customers can buy. Beyond Meetings, it now offers products including Phone, Contact Center and artificial intelligence (AI) tools.

This is called cross-selling: selling an existing customer another product.

There are signs of progress. Second-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue grew 4.9%, while enterprise revenue rose 7.8%, its fastest growth in three years. Adoption of Zoom's AI virtual agent also more than tripled from a year earlier.

The equation is simple:

existing customer → more products → higher customer value → faster enterprise growth

Zoom does not necessarily need millions of new customers if each existing relationship becomes broader.

Four ways software can grow

Intuit and Zoom highlight a useful framework. Most mature software companies have four basic growth levers:

Add more customers.
Raise prices.
Sell more products to existing customers.
Increase how much customers use or spend on existing products.

These routes are not equally attractive.

Price increases can be highly profitable, but only while customers accept them. Customer acquisition can expand the market, but becomes expensive if new users quickly leave. Cross-selling can be powerful because the company already has the customer relationship, but only if the new products are genuinely useful.

The quality of growth therefore depends partly on what happens after the first sale.

What can go wrong

For Intuit, the warning sign would be lower prices without meaningfully better customer growth or retention. That would leave the company earning less without gaining enough scale.

For Zoom, watch whether newer products keep growing faster than Meetings. If they remain too small to lift overall growth, strong adoption headlines may have limited financial impact.

Competition matters for both. Software customers have more choices, while AI could make it easier for rivals to launch new products.

Investor playbook

Look behind revenue growth: separate customer growth, pricing and additional product sales.
Watch retention: attracting customers creates little value if they leave quickly.
Follow spending per customer: rising customer value can support growth even in mature markets.
Compare growth with margins: faster growth becomes less attractive if acquiring it gets increasingly expensive.

Not all growth is created equal

Software growth rarely disappears overnight. It usually changes shape.

Intuit is trying to widen the funnel by making its products easier to enter. Zoom is trying to make each customer relationship bigger. Both approaches can work, and both can fail. The harder question is which route creates lasting value.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead

Beyond Nvidia: software earnings put AI’s second act on trial

Mon, 24 Aug 2026 08:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Nvidia tests AI infrastructure demand, while software earnings show whether that spending is creating revenue further downstream.
Salesforce, Workday and Zoom face a crucial test: can AI strengthen subscriptions rather than undermine them?
Cybersecurity and custom chips may offer cleaner AI growth stories as companies secure and diversify their infrastructure.

Nvidia will dominate the earnings calendar on Wednesday, 26 August. But investors looking beyond graphics processing units may learn just as much from the companies reporting around it.

From Tuesday to Thursday, Intuit, Zoom Communications, Salesforce, CrowdStrike, Okta, Workday, Autodesk, Rubrik, Synopsys and Marvell Technology all report. Together, they provide a useful test of the next stage of artificial intelligence (AI).

The first phase was simple enough: build more computing capacity. The next question is harder. Can companies turn all that computing power into products customers will repeatedly pay for?

That makes this week less about one earnings report and more about following the AI money downstream.

The software industry needs to show the receipts

Software as a service (SaaS) companies rely on recurring subscriptions. AI could strengthen that model by improving products and supporting higher spending, but it could also reduce employee numbers and therefore software licences.

That tension makes Salesforce an important test. The company is pushing its Agentforce AI agents, with more than half of Agentforce and Data 360 bookings last quarter coming from existing customers. Salesforce guided for second-quarter revenue growth of around 10% to 11%.

The key question is not how often management mentions AI. Investors need evidence that it increases customer spending, contract growth and retention.

Zoom offers another test. Paid monthly users of AI Companion grew 184% year-on-year last quarter, but total revenue increased only 5.5%. Intuit faces a similar challenge across QuickBooks and TurboTax, where proprietary financial data could help it build more useful AI tools.

The safest software may be the software protecting everything else

Cybersecurity could offer a cleaner AI story.

More AI agents mean more identities accessing corporate systems and data, creating more doors companies need to lock.

CrowdStrike enters Wednesday with annual recurring revenue (ARR) of 5.51 billion USD, while net new ARR grew 32% year-on-year last quarter. Okta provides another angle through identity security, where the question is whether protecting AI agents becomes an additional growth driver.

Rubrik adds data security and recovery. Its subscription ARR increased 32% last quarter, while revenue rose 39%.

More AI does not automatically mean more software revenue. But it probably means more systems, identities and data worth protecting.

Nvidia is not the only chip story anymore

Marvell reports Thursday after announcing a major custom-chip partnership with Alphabet's Google. The agreement could generate up to 120 billion USD of business through fiscal 2033 if purchasing targets are met.

The broader point is that AI chips are becoming more specialised. Nvidia remains central, particularly for training advanced models, but large cloud companies increasingly want processors designed around their own workloads.

Synopsys offers another route into that trend. Its software helps design and verify complex semiconductors, meaning more custom chips can also support demand for the tools used to build them.

Nvidia shows how strong AI infrastructure demand remains. Marvell and Synopsys show whether that spending is spreading into custom silicon and the wider semiconductor ecosystem.

Risks: AI adoption is not the same as AI economics

The main risk is confusing product adoption with monetisation. Millions of people can use an AI feature without materially increasing revenue.

A second warning sign would be weaker contract growth or retention at established software companies. That could suggest AI is reducing the value of traditional per-user subscriptions faster than vendors can create new revenue models.

Finally, expectations matter. Cybersecurity, custom chips and other perceived AI beneficiaries already carry substantial growth assumptions. Strong results may therefore need to be accompanied by equally strong outlooks.

Investor playbook

Separate usage from monetisation. Watch paid adoption, bookings and recurring revenue rather than AI product announcements alone.
Follow customer expansion. Strong retention and larger contracts show whether AI strengthens existing software relationships.
Compare different AI exposures. Application software, cybersecurity and custom chips face very different opportunities and risks.
Think across the value chain. AI exposure does not need to begin and end with the largest chipmaker.

AI’s second act is about monetisation

Nvidia will probably remain the week's biggest market event. But its numbers answer only one part of the AI investment question: how much computing infrastructure companies still want to buy.

The software reports tell investors what happens after those chips are installed. Salesforce, Workday and Zoom need to show that AI can strengthen their economics rather than weaken traditional subscriptions. CrowdStrike, Okta and Rubrik can demonstrate whether securing AI creates a new layer of recurring demand. Marvell and Synopsys test whether infrastructure spending is broadening beyond general-purpose processors.

The next phase of AI investing may therefore be less about who owns the fastest chip and more about who can keep sending customers an invoice once the chips start working.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Artificial Intelligence Theme - Artificial intelligence NVIDIA Corporation

Asia Market Quick Take – 24 August, 2026

Mon, 24 Aug 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 24 August, 2026

Key points:

Macro: US expected to sanction Iran. US-Canada trade talks fail.
Equities: S&P 500 snap winning streak; Robinhood +13% on crypto rally
FX: Dollar slumps as Treasury buyback pledge lifts commodity and EM currencies broadly
Commodities: Gold stay above $4,600, extending a three-week rally
Fixed income: Treasury yields remain elevated as 10 year near 4.74%

------------------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent vowed the “toughest” sanctions in history, aiming to intensify economic pressure on Iran and its trading partners. The move could further tighten global oil supplies, with Iranian exports already disrupted and offers to China reduced. Tehran dismissed the threat, saying it can withstand sanctions and maintain trade elsewhere, while tensions in the Strait of Hormuz remain high and traffic is still below normal
US–Canada trade talks collapsed Friday, partly over US tariffs on Canadian medium and heavy-duty vehicles. The 50% US tariffs on some Canadian goods have now taken effect, and Canadian PM Carney vowed to match them on US goods from September 8.
The US flash S&P Global Composite PMI rose to 56 in August 2026 from 54.5 in July, the strongest since April 2022. Faster services growth offset softer manufacturing, where output rose at the weakest pace in 13 months amid supply issues. Backlogs increased as delivery times lengthened. Hiring grew at the fastest rate since early 2025 and confidence hit a nine‑month high. Selling price pressures eased, though input costs remained elevated on higher energy prices.
Canadian retail sales are expected to fall 0.8% m/m in July, the sharpest drop in ten months, reversing June’s revised 0.6% gain. Sales rose for general merchandise, clothing-related stores, and motor vehicle and parts dealers, but fell 4.1% at gasoline stations as lower fuel prices offset higher volumes. Turnover was up 5.2% from a year earlier.
Euro Area 12‑month inflation expectations fell to 2.9% in July 2026 from 3.0% in June; three‑year expectations dipped to 2.7%, and the five‑year outlook stayed at 2.4%. Uncertainty remained high, with lower‑income and older households expecting higher inflation than richer and younger groups. Expected income growth slipped to 1%, spending stayed at 3.6%, and expected GDP growth improved to -1.2%. Lower‑income households saw faster home‑price gains (4%) than higher‑income ones (3.1%).
UK retail sales volumes fell 0.5% m/m in July 2026 after a revised 0.7% rise in June, the first decline since April. Non‑food store sales dropped 1.3% on weaker clothing and household goods, and non‑store sales also fell after strong promotion‑driven gains in prior months. Food store sales rose 0.5%, supported by hot weather and the World Cup. Annual growth slowed to 1.6% from 3.8% in June.

Equities:

US — S&P 500 snapped a three-week winning streak last week, dragged lower by a surge in the 30-year Treasury yield to 5.34% — a 19-year high — before partially recovering on Friday. The VIX closed the week at 15.13, up 6.2% week-on-week. US steel stocks including Nucor and Steel Dynamics rallied on the collapse of US-Canada trade talks. Robinhood surged 13% on Thursday, the best performer in the S&P 500 that day on crypto moves. Moderna jumped over 15% on Friday, extending a remarkable week-to-date gain of over 143%. Target rallied 4.5% on Friday after earnings doubled. Heading into this week, Nasdaq 100 futures are edging up 0.1% as Nvidia earnings on Wednesday dominate the agenda.
EU — The Stoxx Europe 600 slipped 0.6% last week to 654 points, its second consecutive weekly decline, at one point logging its longest daily losing streak since September 2023 before a Friday rebound. The DAX fell 1.1% on the week, while the CAC 40 dropped 1.76% — its largest weekly decline since July 10. The FTSE 100 rose 0.6% on Friday (Aug 21) to 10,816, led by HSBC (+1.1%) and JD Sports (+5.6%). A notable deal: Monte dei Paschi di Siena launched all-share bids for Banco BPM and Banca Generali, valued together at approximately €34 billion (~$40 billion), in a move to create a major Italian banking group with a ~€70 billion market cap.
Asia — Asian equities are edging lower this Monday morning, with the MSCI Asia Pacific gauge down 0.1%. The Kospi is the notable underperformer, falling 1.2% as the AI-sensitive index digests the upcoming Nvidia earnings and broader chip sector caution. Hang Seng faces early headwinds as investors digest an announcement from Alibaba to raise US$10b to fund AI spending — the index's third-largest constituent — though a rebound is expected given the AI rotation trade supporting the market. Last week, Korean chip stocks bore the brunt of the global bond selloff, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix each slumping more than 8% at their lows on Wednesday (Aug 19). Singapore's STI has been a relative outperformer, having surged approximately 23% over the past month on a "Goldilocks" economic backdrop of robust tech exports and contained inflation. Vietnam's Vingroup and over 100 Vietnamese companies were added to FTSE Russell's Global Equity Indexes on Friday, marking the country's transition to secondary emerging market status.

Earnings this week:

Monday (24 Aug) - Xpeng, PDD Holdings
Tuesday (25 Aug) — Intuit, Zoom
Wednesday (26 Aug) — Nvidia, Salesforce, CrowdStrike, HP, Haidilao, Li Auto
Thursday (27 Aug) — Marvell, IREN, Affirm
Friday (28 Aug) — BYD Electronic, China Construction Bank, ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China

FX:

The USD extended its decline on Friday, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipping 0.2% on the day and 0.8% over the week to a three‑month low, its weakest August week. Selling was sparked by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s pledge to at least double buybacks of longer‑dated bonds to cap yields, drawing comparisons to Japan’s yield‑curve control and raising concerns about the dollar’s reliability as a hedge.
AUDUSD rose 0.80% to 0.7171 and NZDUSD gained 0.59% to 0.5978, in line with CFTC data showing increased AUD longs and reduced NZD shorts.
CHF was the strongest G10 currency on the week (up 1.65% vs USD) even though USDCHF ticked slightly higher on the day to 0.8012, while JPY was the weakest G10 performer on the week, with USDJPY edging down only 0.06% on the day to 158.95 as hedge funds rebuilt shorts.
EUR lagged, with EURUSD essentially flat at 1.1679 despite broad dollar weakness, consistent with sizable leveraged‑fund net EUR shorts.
KRW was the top Asian performer, dropping 1% intraday against the USD on shareholder‑return plans from local chipmakers.

Commodities:

Gold climbed above $4,620, building on a third consecutive weekly gain and rising more than 5% last week after the Treasury's surprise ramp-up in buybacks of long-dated government debt revived concerns about a weaker dollar and pushed investors toward alternatives.
Oil slipped after a two-week rally as traders awaited the US plan to economically isolate Iran due later Monday, with Brent falling toward $93 after about 13% gains and WTI near $86, as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent prepares to unveil details and press allies to join.
LME copper's spot price traded as much as $545 per metric ton above the three-month futures contract on 17 August — the widest backwardation since a historic squeeze in 2021 — as near-term supply tightness in the LME warehouse network intensified.

Fixed income:

The 30-year US Treasury yield touched 5.34% last week — the highest since 2007 — driven by fiscal concerns, a flood of long-dated supply and sticky inflation. The Treasury responded by announcing plans to at least double the size of liquidity support buyback operations for longer-dated securities. The 30-year bond auction on 13 August cleared at 5.216%, the highest yield since 2001. The 30-year TIPS auction on 20 August cleared at 2.973%, up from 2.473% in February, with strong demand (bid-to-cover 2.82).
The 10-year yield traded around 4.70% on Friday 21 August. Bessent's "Treasury twist" — buying back long-dated debt while issuing more short-dated securities — has drawn comparisons to the Fed's 1960s Operation Twist and the 2011 deployment. BofA's Hartnett warned that if Bessent cannot drag the 30-year yield below 5%, he foresees a dollar slump and increased short bets against leveraged risk assets including AI hyperscalers and private credit. All eyes are on Warsh's Jackson Hole speech Friday for policy direction.
The inexorable rise in long-term government bond yields is spreading globally. Japanese 30-year yields rose above 4% for the first time in their 27-year history earlier this year, while equivalent UK gilts hit their highest since 1998.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

Nvidia’s moat is getting attacked from multiple sides

Thu, 20 Aug 2026 09:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Cerebras attacks Nvidia on inference speed, while Google pushes deeper into custom chips with Marvell.
Hyperscalers increasingly want chips designed around specific workloads rather than one processor doing everything.
Nvidia still has powerful software and networking advantages, but the AI chip market is becoming more specialised.

Nvidia has spent the artificial intelligence boom selling the industry's favourite all-purpose engine. Now, some of its biggest customers want engines built specifically for them, while smaller rivals are redesigning the engine altogether.

Two developments this week capture that shift. Cerebras unveiled new hardware on 18 August designed to make artificial intelligence (AI) inference dramatically faster. One day later, Google expanded its custom-chip relationship with Marvell Technology, potentially creating up to 120 billion USD of revenue for Marvell through fiscal 2033 if performance targets are reached.

Investors noticed. On 19 August, Marvell closed at 237.27 USD, up almost 10%. The bigger story, though, is not one day's share-price move. It is that Nvidia increasingly has to defend its position from two directions at once.

The GPU is becoming one lane, not the whole motorway

Nvidia's graphics processing units (GPUs) became the AI standard because they are powerful and flexible across many workloads. That matters especially for training advanced models, where requirements change quickly.

Inference is different. Once a model is trained, it repeatedly answers queries, making specialised chips potentially more efficient. Google has its tensor processing unit (TPU), Amazon has Trainium, while Meta is developing its Meta Training and Inference Accelerator (MTIA). These chips trade some flexibility for better performance, power efficiency or cost on specific tasks.

The market is therefore splitting. Nvidia offers programmable GPUs, hyperscalers such as Google and Amazon build custom processors, while specialists such as Cerebras rethink the architecture entirely. Marvell and Broadcom sit behind many custom designs, providing chip, networking and connectivity expertise.

Different jobs are getting different tools.

Cerebras attacks the architecture

Cerebras pushes specialisation much further.

Instead of linking many conventional chips, it builds processors roughly the size of a dinner plate. Its new CS-4 system uses three, keeping computing and memory closer together and reducing costly data movement.

Cerebras says the system uses 50% fewer components than its previous design and targets inference, where faster responses can improve both user experience and data-centre economics.

That does not make Cerebras an automatic Nvidia replacement. Nvidia still benefits from scale, software, reliability and a broad ecosystem. But Cerebras raises a more important question: does every AI workload need a GPU?

Google wants a chip made for the job

Google represents another form of pressure.

Hyperscalers operating enormous data centres increasingly have enough scale to design chips around their own workloads. Google's expanded Marvell agreement covers processors, storage and networking around its TPUs.

This looks more like supplier diversification than Broadcom being pushed aside. Broadcom separately agreed to develop future Google custom AI chips through 2031.

The lines between competitor and partner are also blurring. Marvell helps customers develop custom silicon while working with Nvidia, including through Nvidia's NVLink ecosystem.

Nvidia's defence may therefore be broader than protecting GPU market share. Even when customers use another processor, Nvidia can still try to remain part of the surrounding system.

Where the attack can stall

Specialised chips only make economic sense at sufficient scale. Designing them is expensive, manufacturing can be difficult, and software must work reliably. A benchmark advantage matters little if customers cannot deploy it easily.

Nvidia can also defend its position by improving inference performance while keeping customers inside its software, networking and development ecosystem. The early warning sign for investors is therefore not another impressive chip launch. It is whether workloads actually move.

The opposite risk also matters. AI computing demand could grow quickly enough for Nvidia, custom-chip designers and specialists to expand simultaneously. Market share can fall while revenue still rises if the market underneath it grows even faster.

Investor playbook

Watch deployment, not demonstrations. Custom chips matter more when hyperscalers put them into production across large, recurring workloads.
Separate training from inference. Nvidia may remain stronger in one part of AI even as alternatives gain ground elsewhere.
Track the surrounding infrastructure. Networking, memory and connectivity can gain importance as data centres mix several types of processors.
Treat custom-chip suppliers carefully. Large design wins create opportunity, but dependence on a handful of enormous customers also creates concentration risk.

A moat can narrow without disappearing

The important question is no longer whether somebody can build a faster AI chip than Nvidia. Somebody usually can, for a particular workload under particular conditions. The harder question is whether alternatives can match Nvidia's combination of performance, software, networking, supply and ease of deployment at scale.

That is why Cerebras and Google's Marvell deal matter together. One attacks the architecture. The other attacks the assumption that hyperscalers need to buy a standard processor in the first place. Neither means Nvidia's moat disappears. But AI computing is becoming more specialised, and that makes the moat more complicated to defend. The castle still looks formidable. There are simply more roads around it.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Artificial Intelligence Theme - Artificial intelligence NVIDIA Corporation

Market Quick Take - US Treasury Buyback Announcement Punishes USD - 20 August 2026

Thu, 20 Aug 2026 06:14:00 Z

Market drivers and catalysts

Macro: US Treasury yield curve in focus after US Treasury announces buyback announcement aimed at taming long-term yields.
Equities: US equities recovered as Treasury buybacks eased bond pressure, Europe stayed mixed, Asia rebounded sharply, led by Korean semiconductors.
Digital Assets: Bitcoin surges as short squeeze and White House crypto optimism collide
Commodities: Gold surges as yields and dollar tumble, while oil holds firm on Iran tensions
Fixed Income: US Treasury yield curve flattens after US Treasury buyback announcement. Japan’s long yields dropped even more sharply.
Currencies: The US dollar weakened sharply on the US Treasury buyback announcement, particularly against the Swiss franc.

Macro

The U.S. Treasury will at least double buybacks of 10- to 30-year debt after 30-year yields reached their highest since 2007, highlighting Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s increasingly interventionist approach to containing borrowing costs. The move, which pushed the 30-year yield around 9 bps lower to 5.19% ahead of a USD 16 billion 20-year auction, marks a notable departure from the traditional “regular and predictable” approach and may be viewed as an attempt to influence the yield curve and support market stability. The move hurt the USD, lifting gold and other hard assets.
July FOMC minutes showed most officials favored holding rates, though several wanted a hike and said more increases may be needed if inflation stays high. They noted tighter financial conditions, broad-based price gains, and an outlook of similar inflation but slightly weaker growth. Chair Warsh floated cutting to six meetings a year, with no change for 2026.
Trump said oil is still flowing through the Strait of Hormuz and signalled openness to talks with Tehran “at some point,” while simultaneously stepping up economic pressure on Iran seeking to isolate Iran economically after its military campaign failed to force a surrender. He threatened an “ECONOMIC D-DAY”, warning countries providing Iran with an economic lifeline of severe consequences, putting particular focus on China as the largest buyer of Iranian oil.
Australia’s August employment data showed a small 16.3k gain in full time employment, though July full time employment was revised up nearly 30k to 48.9k, while August part-time employment fell -32.2k (and July revised -16k lower). The overall Unemployment Rate rose 0.1% to 4.5% versus expectations for an unchanged 4.4% reading, despite a 0.1% drop in the participation rate.
More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0730 – Sweden Riksbank Rate Decision
1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
1230 – US Aug. Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook survey
2300 – Australia RBA’s Governor Bullock to speak
2330 – Japan Jul. National CPI
0030 – Japan Aug. Preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI
Fed speakers: Daly (1230) & Musalem (15:10)

Earnings events

Thursday: Walmart, Deere & Company, Ross Stores, Netease, Fortescue, Novonesis

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.2% and the Dow gained 0.2%, while the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2%, as expanded Treasury buybacks eased pressure on long-term yields and ended a three-session losing streak. Moderna rocketed 177% after its personalised cancer vaccine with Merck succeeded in a Phase 3 melanoma trial, lifting Merck 12.6%. Marvell gained almost 10% after securing a major custom artificial intelligence chip agreement with Google, while Target rose 4.3% after beating earnings expectations and raising its sales outlook. Attention now turned to Walmart earnings and whether lower yields could stabilise technology shares.
Europe: European equities remained mixed as high bond yields and inflation concerns continued to weigh on technology and financial shares. The Stoxx 600 slipped 0.1% for a sixth straight decline, while the DAX fell 0.1%, the FTSE 100 gained 0.1% and the CAC 40 edged higher. ASML fell 2.2% as semiconductor weakness persisted, while Rockwool dropped 5.0% after results failed to reassure investors despite an improved revenue outlook. AstraZeneca gained 2.1% as healthcare outperformed. Bond yields remained the main cross-market risk.
Asia: Asian equities rebounded sharply in Thursday’s session as easing US bond-market pressure encouraged investors back into technology shares. South Korea’s Kospi surged around 6%, Japan’s Nikkei gained 1.3%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.1% and Australia’s ASX 200 added 0.3%. SK Hynix jumped 14.1% after announcing a KRW 40 trillion share buyback and cancellation programme, while Samsung Electronics rallied 9.7% amid expectations for stronger shareholder returns and a broader memory-chip rebound. The move reversed much of Wednesday’s semiconductor-led selloff, although recent volatility remained unusually high. Investors now watched whether lower global yields could sustain the recovery.
More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Digital Assets

Bitcoin surged nearly 8% on Wednesday, according to Bloomberg triggering the biggest wave of short liquidations since records began in 2021, with more than USD 1 billion of shorts wiped out in about an hour. The rally coincided with President Trump meeting crypto executives at the White House, reinforcing optimism over a more industry-friendly regulatory environment. The move broadened across digital assets, with Ether jumping 16%, while Bitcoin broke above its 100- and 200-day moving averages and US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted USD 517 million of net inflows.

Commodities

Gold surged more than 4% to challenge the 200-day moving average at USD 4,511, its largest single-day gain in six months and its highest level since early June. The move was driven by the sharp fall in the dollar and long-end Treasury yields following the buyback announcement, with analysts noting the rally also reflects a growing market premium on US institutional and policy volatility.
Brent crude held above $91 per barrel into Thursday’s session, extending a four-day run of gains as President Trump announced sweeping new economic measures against Iran and the UAE cut trade and financial ties with Tehran. Meanwhile, there are signs that some crude from other Persian Gulf producers is being covertly ferried out through Hormuz despite threats to shipping. In the US, refineries are processing the most crude since 2019 while nationwide distillate stocks continue to tumble, hitting a 1996 seasonal low in EIA’s latest report.
Copper received a boost from the weaker dollar while the historic LME squeeze continued to ease, with the cash-to-three-month backwardation falling to around $248 per metric ton from a peak of $545 earlier in the week, after Trafigura and other traders made significant metal deliveries to the exchange, thereby easing a squeeze on supplies after being drained by a surge in shipments to the US ahead of a potential tariff announcement. HG Copper traded near USD 6.50 after finding support around the 50-day moving average at USD 6.39.
More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

The US Treasury’s announcement Wednesday of increased buybacks of long-dated treasuries flattened the US treasury yield curve sharply. The USD 4 billion size of the buybacks is vanishingly small relative to the size of the US treasury market but is a loud symbolic signal that the Treasury does not want higher yields. Shaping the yield curve and buying treasuries is normally a policy area for the Fed, so it sets up an interesting tension with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who will speak at next Week’s Fed symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. In any case, the benchmark 30-year treasury yield, fell some nine basis points after the announcement to trade below 4.20% and near two-week lows. The benchmark 10-year yield was only a few basis points lower in the wake of the announcement at 4.64%, within the trading range of the last week.
Japan’s government yield fell sharply at the long end of the yield curve, likely in part due to the fall in long US treasury yields on the buyback announcement that suggests the US treasury will not tolerate higher yields. The benchmark 30-year JGB yield fell 13 basis points Thursday, more than its US counterpart did in Wednesday’s session, trading just below 4.0%. The 10-year JGB yield fell some eight basis points to 2.84%, taking it further away from the multi-decade high of 2.96% of just two days prior.

Currencies

The US dollar fell sharply in the wake of the US Treasury’s announcement of a doubling of its long-term treasury buyback operations as the move suggest the treasury won’t tolerate higher yields, setting up interesting questions about the independence of the Fed as well. USDJPY was already offered ahead of the announcement and trading near 159.00 after the recent highs just below 160.00 and fell further to nearly 158.00 before bouncing sharply in early Thursday trading hours to above 158.70. Japan reports its July National CPI data on Friday. EURUSD rose as high as 1.1684 after trading near 1.1600 at the time of the US Treasury announcement. This was its highest level since late May.
The Swiss franc was particularly reactive to the US Treasury announcement of increased buybacks as it goes against the recent popularity of CHF-funded carry trades based on Switzerland’s low yields. EURCHF fell sharply Wednesday from near 1-year highs around 0.9400 to as low as 0.9310 before rebounding and the bottom fell out of USDCHF, which plunged from near 0.8100 to as low as 0.7970 late Wednesday before rebounding toward 0.8000 by early Thursday in Europe.
More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis

Saxo Bank

The robot boom is bigger than humanoids: mapping the companies behind it

Wed, 19 Aug 2026 12:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Humanoids are the headline, but robotics already spans factories, warehouses, vision systems, motion control and artificial intelligence.
Nvidia, Cognex, Fanuc and specialist component makers provide very different ways to gain exposure to the same theme.
The key question is not only which robot wins, but which parts of the value chain remain scarce and valuable.

Robots can already dance. Investors appear equally capable of getting excited about it.

China's Unitree surged nearly sixfold on its Shanghai debut on 19 August, briefly valuing the humanoid robot maker at around 50 billion USD. The listing coincides with Beijing's World Robot Conference, where hundreds of companies are displaying everything from industrial machines to humanoid robots.

Unitree makes a useful hook, but it is not the whole investment story. Humanoids remain early, and relatively few perform productive commercial work today. The broader opportunity is what happens when artificial intelligence gives existing robots better brains, eyes and decision-making abilities.

For investors, that means looking underneath the robot's skin.

Humanoids are the billboard, not the industry

Factories installed more than 540,000 industrial robots globally in 2024, more than twice the number a decade earlier, according to the International Federation of Robotics. Manufacturing already uses automated arms extensively for welding, assembly, painting and moving materials.

The important change now is intelligence.

Traditional industrial robots are excellent at repeating precisely programmed movements. They struggle when an object moves, changes shape or something unexpected enters their workspace.

Artificial intelligence can make that environment less rigid. Machine vision helps robots see. New models help them interpret instructions. Simulation lets them practise tasks virtually before entering a real factory.

Nvidia says Fanuc, ABB Robotics, Yaskawa and Kuka, which together have more than two million installed robots, are integrating its simulation technology and artificial intelligence computing.

That suggests robotics may evolve more like semiconductors than smartphones. The final product gets the attention, but considerable value can sit with companies supplying essential components.

Build the robot, layer by layer

The easiest way to understand the opportunity is to imagine building an intelligent robot from scratch.

The brain: Nvidia

Robots need computing power to process cameras, understand their surroundings and decide what to do next. Nvidia is trying to become a common computing and software platform for robotics.

Its Jetson processors run artificial intelligence directly on machines, while Isaac provides tools for training and simulation. Its GR00T platform targets humanoid development.

Importantly, Nvidia does not need to predict whether Tesla, Unitree, Figure or another manufacturer wins. Its opportunity is supplying the intelligence layer across many platforms.

The eyes: Cognex and Keyence

A robot cannot adapt if it cannot see what changed.

Cognex specialises in machine vision. Its cameras, sensors and software identify objects, inspect products and guide robotic movements. Keyence offers similar systems, including three-dimensional vision that helps robots understand an object's position, shape and orientation.

As robots move from fixed tasks towards less predictable environments, better perception becomes increasingly important.

The muscles and joints: Harmonic Drive and Nabtesco

Making a robot think is only half the problem. It must also move accurately.

Motors, gears, bearings and actuators convert electrical instructions into movement. McKinsey identifies actuators as the largest hardware cost and one of the main performance bottlenecks for humanoids.

Japan's Harmonic Drive Systems produces precision gearing used in humanoid arms and legs. Nabtesco supplies reduction gears that allow industrial robots to move accurately under heavy loads.

If humanoid production scales, these less glamorous components could become strategically important. A robot with a brilliant brain but unreliable knees still has a problem.

The robot builders: Fanuc, Yaskawa, Teradyne and Tesla

Fanuc and Yaskawa bring decades of experience building industrial robots, controllers and motion systems. They also already have factory customers and experience keeping machines running reliably.

Teradyne offers another angle through Universal Robots, which makes collaborative robot arms, and Mobile Industrial Robots, which builds autonomous machines for moving goods through factories and warehouses.

Tesla sits further towards the speculative end. Optimus aims to become a general-purpose humanoid. Its challenge is turning artificial intelligence, vision and manufacturing expertise into dependable machines produced cheaply at scale.

ABB also belongs on the map, with one caveat. It agreed to sell its robotics division to SoftBank for 5.375 billion USD, shifting direct robotics exposure away from ABB if the transaction completes.

The warehouse: Kion and Symbotic

Robotics does not need legs to create economic value.

Kion combines warehouse equipment, automation and robotics and is working with Nvidia on artificial intelligence-powered autonomous industrial trucks. Symbotic automates the storage and movement of goods inside large warehouses.

These businesses offer a useful reality check. The first large-scale financial returns from smarter robots may emerge in controlled factories and warehouses long before humanoids start folding laundry at home.

Source: Saxo Bank analysis, based on company materials, McKinsey and the International Federation of Robotics.

Where the map can go wrong

The biggest risk is confusing exposure with materiality. Robotics may matter strategically to Nvidia or Tesla without becoming a major earnings driver anytime soon. Smaller specialists offer purer exposure, but usually bring greater customer, technology and valuation risks.

Vertical integration is another uncertainty. Robot manufacturers may bring critical components in-house, reducing the opportunity for suppliers.

Finally, technical progress does not guarantee attractive economics. Falling robot prices encourage adoption but can also squeeze margins. Higher volumes eventually need to translate into sustainable profits.

Investor playbook

Think in layers. Separate artificial intelligence, vision, motion, robot manufacturing and integration.
Watch bottlenecks. Hard-to-replace components may capture more value than easily substituted hardware.
Measure commercial adoption. Repeat orders, operating hours and customer savings matter more than demonstrations.
Check financial materiality. Robotics exposure matters more when it can meaningfully affect earnings.

The clever robot may not capture the cleverest economics

Unitree's debut captures today's excitement, but the more useful long-term investment question sits beneath the headline.

A functioning robot combines computing, vision, precision motion and decades of manufacturing knowledge. That makes robotics less a race to identify the next Tesla and more a developing ecosystem.

Nvidia may provide the brain. Cognex and Keyence help provide the eyes. Harmonic Drive and Nabtesco move the joints. Fanuc, Yaskawa, Teradyne and others put machines to work.

The robot may grab the headlines. The real value may sit in the parts that make it work.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles NVidia Corp. Theme - Robotics and automation

Beginning of a larger bearish correction here?

Wed, 19 Aug 2026 09:14:00 Z

Yields, leverage and bubbly sentiment among concerns.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.

Questions and comments, please!

We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.

This content is marketing material and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.

The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

Asia Market Quick Take – 19 August, 2026

Wed, 19 Aug 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 19 August, 2026

Key points:

Macro: US-Iran tensions continue; SoH traffic remains limited
Equities: Equities risk off; SOXX slumps 5%
FX: USD strengthens amid risk off and higher long dated yields
Commodities: Precious metals and copper sell off
Fixed income: Treasury yields lower but remain elevated

------------------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

US–Iran tensions remain high, keeping supply risks elevated and the Strait of Hormuz constrained. Trump says there are no talks with Tehran and confirms the US naval blockade. Despite claims the waterway is open, traffic remains limited. Iranian forces have escalated hostilities, with eight vessel attacks reported this month, including on UAE- and Saudi-linked ships.
Japan’s core machinery orders rose 9.7% m/m in June 2026 to JPY 1.06 trillion, beating forecasts and reversing May’s 12.4% drop. It was the fastest gain since February, with broad strength across manufacturers and non-manufacturers. Orders jumped 16.9% y/y, versus a 1.9% fall in May, well above expectations.
US housing starts fell 12.4% in July 2026 to an annualized 1.239 million units, well below expectations of 1.35 million and near a six-year low. Multi-family starts dropped 15.6% and single-family 9.9%. Regionally, starts fell in the Midwest, South, and West, but rose in the Northeast.
US manufacturing output rose 0.2% in July 2026, matching expectations. Durable goods production climbed 0.7%, while nondurable output fell 0.4%. Capacity utilization edged up to 76%, still 2.2 points below its long-run average.
US import prices fell 0.4% m/m in July 2026, the biggest drop since May 2025 and defying expectations for a 0.1% rise. Fuel import prices slumped 7.2% on lower petroleum costs, while nonfuel import prices rose 0.4%. Import prices were up 5.9% from a year earlier.
The UK jobless rate was unchanged at 4.9% in the three months to June 2026, versus expectations for 4.8%. Unemployment fell by 36,000 on the quarter but rose by 88,000 over the year, while employment increased by 84,000 to 34.47 million.

Equities:

US — US equities retreated on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 falling 0.69% to 7,691.76 and the Nasdaq Composite declining 1.33% to 26,289.71, while the Dow Jones shed 0.22% to 53,343.40. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index slumped 5%, leading losses as chip and AI hardware stocks were pummelled amid elevated Treasury yields and inflation concerns. Notable decliners included Micron, Credo, and SanDisk. NRG Energy fell 5.57%. After hours, Nasdaq futures extended losses, pulled lower by the Kospi selloff in Asia, raising the risk of a sharper open.
EU — European equities were under pressure on Tuesday as elevated bond yields and global inflation concerns weighed on sentiment. The global bond rout was a key driver, with French borrowing costs hitting their highest since 2008 and German 30-year yields at 2011 levels following a €4bn August 2056 syndicated bond sale. UK gilt yields approached 6%. Defensive names offered some relative shelter, but the broader market struggled against the backdrop of rising sovereign yields and persistent oil price strength.
Asia — Asian equities are sharply lower on Wednesday morning, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index falling over 1% to 273.09. South Korea's Kospi is the standout underperformer, plunging approximately 6% to around 6,454, dragged down by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, each falling around 7%, following the overnight US semiconductor rout. The Kosdaq slipped more than 3%. Japan's Topix fell 2.1% to 4,054.19, with the Nikkei also under pressure. Nasdaq futures are being pulled into the Kospi's downward spiral, slicing through Tuesday's intraday lows. Hong Kong and China markets are opening weaker, tracking global chip weakness. Separately, Japanese companies posted their largest earnings beat in five years, with 71% of firms exceeding forecasts and aggregate net income at the 500 biggest companies topping ¥21 trillion. Xiaomi saw strong EV growth but lower profits due to high chip costs, while Baidu's profits plunged 68% as AI cloud gains couldn't offset a steep drop in traditional ad revenue.

Earnings this week:

Wednesday - Lowe’s, Target, TJX, Estee Lauder, Analog Devices, HKEX, Kuaishou Technology
Thursday - Walmart, Deere & Co., Ross Stores, Alibaba, Ping An Insurance, Pop Mart
Friday - BJ’s Wholesale Club

FX:

USD is stabilizing, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index at 99.61 after earlier hitting mid‑May lows, as a bear‑steepening US yield curve blunts traditional rate support.
USDJPY is at 159.46 and edging toward the key 160 level, with elevated US yields, high oil and Middle East risk supporting the pair, though reduced speculative shorts leave it vulnerable to a sharp squeeze on a break.
EURUSD is at 1.1581, with 1‑month risk reversals turning euro‑bullish for the first time since March as markets price an ECB hike versus a Fed on hold in September.
GBPUSD trades at 1.3540, holding up in G10 but increasingly exposed to UK gilt yields near 6% amid the global bond selloff.
AUDUSD is at 0.7084 after underperforming on Tuesday (-0.32%) as weaker metals and risk‑off sentiment hit the commodity bloc, with Q2 wages and RBA signals in focus; NZDUSD at 0.5873 is supported by recommendations to buy the kiwi as an El Niño hedge.
KRW, strong on earlier equity inflows, is likely to weaken after a sharp Kospi drop (~6%) on chip losses.

Commodities:

Oil settled around $85/bbl, near three-week highs, as US-Iran talks over the Strait of Hormuz remain deadlocked. Elevated oil prices are a key driver of global inflation concerns and are contributing to the ongoing bond market selloff.
Copper saw a historic LME squeeze partially ease on Tuesday after Trafigura and other traders made significant deliveries of metal to the exchange. The cash-to-three-month backwardation narrowed to $248/ton from as wide as $545/ton on Monday, though spreads remain historically extreme. Copper is up approximately 16% year-to-date, with BHP reporting a 30% rise in underlying attributable profit to $13.2bn for the year ended June 30, driven by record copper prices.
Gold declined as much as 1.8% to around $4,338/oz on Tuesday as the global bond selloff sent yields higher and buoyed the dollar, creating twin headwinds for the precious metal. Despite the pullback, the GLD ETF recorded its largest single-day inflow since 18 June, with $1.01bn added, reflecting continued institutional demand for gold as a hedge.

Fixed income:

US 30-Year Treasury yields hit 5.31–5.32%, the highest level since June 2007, driven by investor angst over surging government spending, a flood of long-dated bond supply, and inflation that has remained above the Fed's target for five years. The US Treasury disbursed a record $85bn in semi-annual coupon payments to bondholders on 17 August.
Global sovereign yields are surging in tandem, with French 30-year borrowing costs at their highest since 2008, German 30-year yields at 2011 levels, and UK gilt yields approaching 6%. Japan's 10-year yields climbed to multi-decade highs. The global rout is being attributed to a combination of AI-driven corporate bond supply crowding out government debt, persistent inflation, and growing fiscal deficit concerns across developed markets.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

Luxury stocks are on sale. But is anything actually cheap?

Tue, 18 Aug 2026 09:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

China is not disappearing as a luxury market, but consumers are becoming more selective about where they spend.
Years of price increases have tested the limits of what aspirational customers are willing to pay.
Falling shares improve valuations, but Hermès, LVMH, Kering and Richemont offer very different investment cases.

European luxury shares have come under pressure, reflecting weaker growth, more cautious consumers and high expectations built up over previous years. Lower share prices do not automatically create opportunities, but they are making the investment question more interesting.

China is spending, just not like before

For years, the luxury formula looked straightforward. Rising Chinese wealth created millions of new aspirational consumers, who wanted their first Louis Vuitton bag, Gucci belt or luxury watch.

That engine has not disappeared. It has changed gears.

China's personal luxury market shrank between 3% and 5% in 2025, according to Bain, after a much steeper decline in 2024. Bain expects modest growth this year, but the recovery remains uneven.

More importantly, Chinese shoppers are becoming selective. Recent research found 37% of affluent consumers planned to increase spending on prestige beauty, compared with just 4% for leather goods. L'Oréal says premium beauty is growing strongly in China, while LVMH described Chinese spending in the first half as broadly flat.

The logic is simple. A premium moisturiser can feel like an affordable indulgence. A handbag costing several thousand euros is easier to postpone.

Yet there are important exceptions. Richemont, owner of Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels, reported 24% growth in jewellery sales last quarter and double-digit growth in Greater China. Jewellery can offer something handbags increasingly struggle to provide: perceived lasting value alongside status.

Moncler and Brunello Cucinelli also continue to report solid Asian growth. China is therefore not simply "weak". Brand, category and customer matter more than ever.

Pricing power has met a price ceiling

Luxury companies spent years proving they could raise prices without losing customers. Eventually, they decided to test that proposition rather enthusiastically.

Bain estimates the global luxury customer base fell from around 400 million people in 2022 to roughly 340 million in 2025. It argues that repeated price increases pushed many aspirational customers away while also frustrating some wealthier buyers.

This matters because pricing power is valuable only when customers remain willing to pay.

Hermès sits at one extreme. Scarce production, waiting lists and exceptionally wealthy customers protect demand. First-half sales still grew 6% at constant currencies, while its recurring operating margin remained an extraordinary 41%.

LVMH faces a broader challenge. It owns around 70 brands, including Louis Vuitton, Dior, Tiffany and Bulgari. That diversification offers protection, but its crucial fashion and leather goods division is recovering only gradually. First-half organic group sales rose 2%, while management continues to see only limited improvement in Chinese spending.

Kering faces the hardest version of this test. Gucci remains central to profits and its recovery. Second-quarter Gucci sales fell 2% on a comparable basis, much better than earlier quarters, but mainland China remained challenging. The good news is that momentum is improving. The less comfortable news is that a turnaround still needs to become sustained growth.

Four stocks, four different labels

This is where lower share prices become useful rather than automatically attractive.

Hermès offers the strongest economics but also the highest expectations. Even after its decline, the shares trade at roughly the mid-30s times trailing earnings. Investors are still paying substantially more for each euro of profit than at LVMH.

LVMH offers diversification at a more subdued valuation. Its shares trade at roughly 20 times trailing earnings. The investment case depends less on perfection and more on whether Louis Vuitton, Dior and other major brands can restore healthier growth.

Kering is a turnaround. Current earnings are depressed enough that simple price-to-earnings comparisons are less useful. The key question is whether Gucci can rebuild desirability while Kering improves margins and keeps debt under control.

Richemont offers a different exposure. Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels put it closer to resilient branded jewellery than fashion-led luxury. That has supported stronger growth, but also means investors already recognise much of that quality.

What could keep the markdown going?

The first risk is that China's recovery remains weak or shifts permanently away from traditional European brands. Watch Chinese sales trends, particularly for leather goods.

The second is creative execution. Luxury products are unusual assets because yesterday's bestseller can become tomorrow's unsold inventory. New collections at Gucci, Dior and other major houses need to translate attention into purchases.

Finally, weaker currencies, tourism flows and economic confidence can squeeze sales and margins even when the underlying brand remains healthy.

Investor playbook

Separate share-price weakness from business weakness. Falling prices help only if long-term earning power remains intact.
Track customer mix. Brands serving ultra-wealthy buyers may behave differently from those relying heavily on aspirational consumers.
Compare valuation with expectations. A wonderful company can disappoint if its share price already assumes wonderful results.
Watch evidence, not recovery stories. China sales, margins, new-product demand and cash generation provide better signals than hopeful headlines.

The label matters more than the discount

Luxury investing used to look easy because several powerful forces moved together: Chinese wealth expanded, aspirational shoppers joined the market and brands repeatedly raised prices. Those forces now pull in different directions.

That makes the sector harder, but also more interesting for investors. Hermès still demonstrates what exceptional scarcity can achieve. LVMH offers breadth and a lower starting valuation. Richemont shows the resilience of jewellery. Kering offers greater recovery potential, but also greater execution risk.

The useful lesson extends beyond handbags and watches. A great company is not automatically a great investment at every price, just as a falling share price does not automatically create a bargain. When the entire luxury shelf gets marked down, investors still need to read the labels.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

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