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Market Quick Take - Markets rally as Waller turns dovish, jobs report takes centre stage - 04 September 2026

Fri, 04 Sep 2026 05:45:00 Z

Market drivers and catalysts

Macro: A senior Fed voice softened on September as the jobs report comes into view
Equities: US and European stocks rallied as rate fears eased, while Asian markets extended gains with technology leading.
Digital Assets: Crypto equities surged as bitcoin reclaimed a key level on easing rate fears
Commodities: BCOM heads for record weekly close as energy surges; Waller and softer dollar revive gold momentum
Fixed Income: Global bonds rally, led by Japan’s government bonds
Currencies: Recent JPY surge partially fades, USD weaker.

Macro

The US Fed's Waller pivots dovish: Fed Governor Christopher Waller said his September rate decision will be “heavily influenced” by August CPI data due 11 September. He signalled willingness to hold rates steady if disinflation continues, prompting markets to price roughly even odds of a hike at the September meeting, down from near-certainty earlier in the week.
US trade deficit widens sharply: The July goods and services trade gap expanded 24.4% month-on-month to $88.6 billion, the largest since early 2025, driven by an 11.4% surge in capital goods imports, primarily computers and semiconductors, reflecting the AI investment race.
The ISM Services PMI showed strong momentum in August, with activity and demand both picking up. Solid growth alongside limited hiring supports the broader AI-productivity story. For the Fed, however, rising cost pressures were the main concern, putting even more focus on the August CPI ahead of the mid-September FOMC meeting. The ISM Services PMI rose 1.3 points to 55.4, above the 54.1 consensus. Business activity and new orders strengthened, while backlogs also increased. Meanwhile, prices paid rose to 72.6, above the 70 consensus.
US-Iran conflict ongoing: The US carried out a second round of strikes against Iran this week, keeping oil prices elevated and stoking inflation concerns. President Trump said renewed attacks would be “short-lived,” offering some relief to markets mid-week.
The BOE's Pill flags prompt hike: Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill said a “prompt” rate increase would be appropriate to prevent the Iran energy shock from embedding inflation, though he stressed it need not be the start of a prolonged hiking cycle.
More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0600 – Germany Jul. Factory Orders
1230 – US Aug. Nonfarm Payrolls Change
1230 – US Aug. Unemployment Rate
1230 – US Aug. Average Hourly Earnings
1230 – Canada Aug. Employment Data
1400 – Canada Aug. Ivey PMI

Earnings events

Next week
Wednesday: Inditex
Thursday: Oracle, Adobe

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 rose 1.1% to 7,747.71, the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.2%, and the Dow added 1.2% after Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s softer comments reduced expectations for a September rate hike. Microsoft gained 2.7%, while Nvidia rose 1.8% after agreeing to acquire AI platform Hugging Face for $12.9 billion. Snowflake surged 16.6% on a stronger revenue outlook, while Broadcom fell 2.7% after its quarterly revenue forecast disappointed. After hours, Lululemon dropped around 18% after cutting its full-year revenue and profit outlook again. Markets now turn to today’s US jobs report.
Europe: The Stoxx 600 rose 0.5% to 649.1, the Euro Stoxx 50 gained 0.3%, Germany’s DAX advanced 0.6%, and the FTSE 100 added 0.7% as lower global bond yields eased recent pressure on valuations. Soitec jumped 10.3% after raising its second-quarter revenue growth outlook, while WPP gained 5.6% and Publicis rose 4.4% following reports that Publicis had won PepsiCo’s media account. Commerzbank added 2.3% after announcing a share buyback of up to €1.2 billion, while LVMH fell 1.8% as investors remained cautious on the luxury recovery.
Asia: Asian equities advanced in today’s session, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 1.2%, South Korea’s Kospi around 2% higher and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gaining about 2% as Waller’s comments supported risk appetite ahead of US jobs data. SoftBank surged around 10%, providing much of the Nikkei’s lift, while Kioxia gained 6.3% as AI-linked stocks rebounded. Samsung Electronics rose 3% and SK Hynix gained 5%, helped by renewed semiconductor demand optimism. A stronger yen and rising Bank of Japan rate expectations remained the main counterweight for Japanese exporters.
More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Digital Assets

Crypto equities had their strongest day in weeks as bitcoin reclaimed USD 80,000 on Thursday and rate-hike odds fell. Strategy rose 17.56%, Circle 16.46% and Coinbase 10.14%, with the miners up 10% to 14%; spot has since flattened overnight.
Strategy resumed buying after a ten-week pause, adding 4,603 bitcoin for USD 369.7 million in its 31 August filing, lifting holdings to 845,050. US spot bitcoin funds took in USD 101 million on Wednesday while ether funds saw USD 48 million leave.

Commodities

Oil: Crude trades steady after a three-session rally of around 9%, with WTI at USD 91.50 and Brent at USD 95.50. The US-Iran conflict around the Strait of Hormuz continues to keep supply risks and the geopolitical risk premium elevated. Brent has risen almost 60% this year, while refined products such as diesel have seen even steeper gains amid the Middle East conflict and Russia-Ukraine war. OPEC+ ministers meet on Sunday to set production targets.
Metals: Gold extended its rebound, rising as much as 2.9% on Thursday to above USD 4,500 an ounce, its biggest intraday jump since 19 August, supported by a weaker dollar and Waller’s remarks. Spot trades around USD 4,470 this morning. The largest bullion-backed gold fund recorded a USD 1.41 billion inflow, its largest since 16 January, while the senior gold miner fund rose 3.95% and silver 2.51%. In addition, central bank demand remains an important structural support. Following Waller’s comments, there is little doubt that next week’s August CPI print could have an outsized impact on market risk sentiment and where gold goes next. Key resistance is the 200-day moving average at USD 4,534.
Commodities: The BCOM Total Return Index is heading for a weekly gain of around 2%, lifting its year-to-date advance to 33.6% and putting it on course for a record weekly closing high. Energy has done most of the heavy lifting, surging 6.3%, while agriculture trades softer following four weeks of strong gains that lifted the BCOM Agriculture Index by 12.6%. An end-of-week rebound across precious metals has left the sector near unchanged on the week, while industrial metals have recorded a small gain.
More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

Global bonds rallied Thursday and early Friday. On Thursday, the US Fed’s Waller, an FOMC meeting voter, sounded far more dovish than Chair Warsh, confusing the market and sending short-date US yields sharply lower by some seven basis points, though much of that move was erased. Today’s key test for global bond markets is the US August jobs report.
In Japan on Friday, the government bond yield curve bull flattened again, with short-dated yields modestly lower while the longest-dated government bonds were snapped up for a second session, sending the benchmark 30-year JGB yield another seven basis points lower and testing the symbolic 4.00% yield level.

Currencies

The rally in the Japanese yen extended close to the key 155.00 level in USDJPY, an area where the prior two rounds of intervention failed to see the JPY punching through to sustain a rally. Bloomberg reported that JP Morgan estimates that perhaps some 16–17 trillion JPY in JPY carry trades, more than USD 100 billion in long USDJPY trades, remain outstanding and that a self-reinforcing liquidation of positions could be triggered by a move below 155.00 that could send USDJPY to the 142–146 range.
The US dollar was broadly weaker after Fed voter Christopher Waller’s dovish comments. EURUSD rose back solidly above 1.1625 and AUDUSD rose above 0.7210, its highest level since May.
EURSEK fell sharply after testing as high as 11.18+ earlier this week, falling as low as 11.08 early Friday and therefore back into the range below 11.11 that had capped the exchange rate from June through August. Sweden’s Riksbank Governor Thedeen spoke positively on the status of the economic recovery and the market has pulled forward expectations of the bank’s first policy hike to as soon as the November meeting.
More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Advanced orders Europe Employment United Kingdom European Union (EU) XAUUSD USD EURUSD USDJPY Energy Sector Technology S P 500 index Quick Take Weekly Newsletter ESMA Products NOT Mentioned

Four earnings, one AI message: follow the money

Thu, 03 Sep 2026 09:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Broadcom’s custom chips and networking show AI spending is broadening beyond general-purpose graphics processing units.
Dell, Snowflake and Palo Alto reveal the next bottlenecks: systems, usable data and security.
Strong results can still disappoint when expectations are extreme, making cash generation and execution more important.

The artificial intelligence boom is starting to look less like one trade and more like a supply chain.

Between 1 and 2 September 2026, Dell Technologies, Palo Alto Networks, Snowflake and Broadcom all reported strong AI-linked demand. Yet investors reacted differently. Dell rallied, Snowflake jumped after hours, while Palo Alto fell and Broadcom slipped.

AI spending still looks strong. The harder question is where the best economics sit, and how much investors have already paid for them.

Broadcom moves to the centre

Broadcom designs custom AI processors and the networking technology connecting thousands of chips inside data centres. AI semiconductor revenue more than tripled year on year, while management now expects about 115 billion USD of AI semiconductor revenue in fiscal 2027.

Large AI developers increasingly want chips designed around their own workloads. Custom chips can offer better cost or power efficiency than general-purpose graphics processing units for specific tasks. Broadcom also sells the networking equipment connecting them, giving it exposure to two bottlenecks at once.

Yet the shares slipped after results. Near-term guidance landed around market expectations, which were already enormous. Strong demand can be real and still not be strong enough for the share price.

The rest of the AI factory is filling up

Dell assembles servers and storage systems that turn chips into working infrastructure. AI server orders hit record levels and the company raised its outlook again, confirming that customers are moving from plans to deployments.

Cash flow deserves attention. Dell generated about 1 billion USD of standard free cash flow on 47 billion USD of quarterly revenue. Its adjusted figure is higher because it adds back cash tied up in customer financing and leased equipment. Hardware growth can still require plenty of cash.

Snowflake helps companies store, organise and use their data. Product revenue accelerated, guidance rose and management said AI products drove roughly half of the recent growth acceleration. AI becomes more useful when it can work safely with a company’s own data.

Palo Alto Networks provides the security layer. More connected data, models and automated agents create more things to protect. Results were strong, but the shares fell as investors questioned how much growth came from acquisitions versus the underlying business.

Follow the bottlenecks, then follow the cash

Broadcom controls scarce custom computing and networking technology. Dell benefits from physical deployment but ties up more capital. Snowflake monetises data usage. Palo Alto benefits from growing security complexity.

For investors, the better question is shifting from “who has AI exposure?” to “what bottleneck does this company control, and how efficiently does it turn demand into cash?”

Risks

The main risk is that infrastructure spending eventually runs ahead of real AI usage. Customer concentration also matters, especially when a few hyperscalers drive demand. Expectations remain demanding.

Investor playbook

Track whether AI orders keep turning into delivered systems, not only announced projects.
Compare revenue growth with margins and free cash flow to judge growth quality.
Watch whether enterprise AI usage spreads into data, security and recurring software spending.

The AI trade is becoming a bottleneck hunt

The first phase of the AI boom rewarded scarce computing power. These four earnings reports suggest the second phase is becoming more interesting.

Broadcom shows custom silicon and networking becoming a serious second pillar of AI infrastructure. Dell confirms physical deployment remains strong. Snowflake shows AI moving into enterprise data, while Palo Alto shows that more automation creates more need for control.

The lesson is not to guess which logo wins the AI race. It is to ask who controls a bottleneck, who gets paid repeatedly and who converts demand into cash. As AI spreads through the stack, those questions may matter more than the headline growth rate.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Artificial Intelligence Quarterly earnings

Asia Market Quick Take – 03 September 2026

Thu, 03 Sep 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 3 Sep, 2026

Key points:

Macro: RBNZ hikes to 2.75%. BoC holds at 2.25% but warns of higher inflation
Equities: US indices rise; Snowflake rises 23% after strong earnings
FX: Hawkish BOJ comments and intervention speculation drove USDJPY down to 158.71
Commodities: Oil eases after Trump downplays prolonged conflict
Fixed income: Japan 10-year yields hit 3% since 1996

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

US carried out new strikes on Iranian IRGC targets near the Strait of Hormuz, driving a sustained oil rally and reviving inflation fears, though prices later eased after Trump downplayed the risk of a prolonged conflict.
The latest ADP report showed US private employers added just 38,000 jobs in August, the weakest gain since January and below the 47,000 expected, signaling a cooling labor market. Markets now see a 66% chance of a Fed rate hike in September, up from about 40% a week earlier.
US factory orders rose 0.9% in July 2026, rebounding from a 0.2% drop in June and beating the 0.6% forecast. Gains were led by a 2.3% jump in transportation equipment, including a 12.7% surge in civilian aircraft. Orders ex-transportation rose 0.6%, and ex-defense increased 1.0%.
The RBNZ delivered a second straight 25 bp hike to 2.75% but signaled a slower tightening path than markets expected. It now projects the cash rate at 2.81% by December and 3.15% by end-2027, below the roughly 3.5% peak priced in, and said further hikes are likely but timing is uncertain.
BoC left its policy rate at 2.25% but warned of stronger upside inflation risks from higher energy prices, the Middle East war, and renewed US tariffs, while saying the outlook remains too uncertain to guide future moves.
Australia Q2 GDP beat estimates, sending the 3-year yield up nearly 10 bps, while earnings beats are outpacing misses for the first time in four years.

Equities:

US — S&P 500 rose 0.5% to 7,666.60 on Wednesday, snapping a three-day losing streak, as oil prices stalled and bargain hunters returned. Nasdaq 100 gained 0.2% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.6%. Ten of eleven S&P 500 sectors closed higher, led by materials and communication services. Dell Technologies surged 15.8% on a solid earnings outlook. Meta Platforms gained 3.1% and Nvidia rose 3.2%, while Palo Alto Networks fell 9.3%. In after-hours trading, Broadcom slid as much as ~3.7% after issuing a Q4 revenue forecast that missed expectations ($34.8b vs $35.03b). Snowflake rose 23% after a strong earnings report and upbeat guidance, with revenue jumping 35% yoy, largely driven by new accounts of its AI coding agent CoCo.
EU — European equities extended their losing streak on Wednesday. The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.2% to 645.91, its lowest close since 29 July, led lower by industrials — Siemens dropped 1.5% and Lottomatica fell 7.6%. The DAX declined 0.5% to 25,839, with Zalando down 4.7%. The FTSE 100 fell 0.3% to 10,756, with LSE Group down 3.0% and Kingfisher falling 3.8%. The SMI bucked the trend, rising 0.2%, led by UBS (+1.1%) and Alcon (+1.8%). Index changes were also announced: Nokia and Engie will join the Euro Stoxx 50 on 21 September, replacing Volkswagen and Dutch utility Stellantis.
Asia — Asian equities are advancing this morning, tracking Wall Street's recovery, with the MSCI Asia Pacific gauge up ~0.5%. Japan's Nikkei had fallen 2.9% to 64,325 on Wednesday — its lowest in nearly a month — as oil prices and elevated bond yields pressured tech and auto stocks. South Korea's Kospi tumbled ~4% on Wednesday, led by chip stocks Samsung, SK Hynix and SK Square, amid rising oil and rate-hike fears. Australian ASX 200 fell 1% after the stronger-than-expected GDP print reinforced RBA rate-hike expectations. Hong Kong and mainland China markets also declined ~1% or more on Wednesday. The yen's sharp overnight move is also keeping traders alert.

Earnings this week:

Thursday: Ciena

FX:

A sharp BOJ‑driven yen rally pushed USDJPY down over 200 pips (160.39–158.22) and it closed at 158.71, amid stop‑run‑like price action and only moderate JPY futures volumes, casting doubt on actual Japanese intervention.
CAD outperformed on hawkish Bank of Canada rhetoric, with USDCAD falling to ~1.3842 and 2-year yields jumping, while Citi initiated a short USDCAD position targeting 1.35.
EURUSD slipped to 1.1588, breaking below its 21-day moving average and showing mixed Harami patterns on weekly (bearish) and daily (bullish) charts.
AUDUSD closed at 0.7169, the weakest G10 performer, as higher oil prices amid rising US–Iran tensions pressured Asia FX.
SGD's 120-day correlation with the USD has dropped to -0.94, the most inverse link since May 2024 and the most negative in Asia, positioning it as a key beneficiary if the dollar debasement trade accelerates.
KRW has transformed from Asia's worst-performing currency to its best, driven by AI-related capital inflows from chip firms repatriating overseas earnings.

Commodities:

WTI crude settled above $90 per barrel on Wednesday after a sharp two-day rally driven by US-Iran hostilities over the Strait of Hormuz. Brent had briefly hit ~$95 before easing as President Trump played down the prospect of a prolonged conflict.
Gold traded around $4,330–$4,416 per ounce, having fallen nearly 6% over the prior three sessions to a two-week low as surging global bond yields and a stronger dollar weighed on the non-yielding metal. Gold mining stocks, however, had their best August since at least 1994, driven by geopolitical and fiscal uncertainty.

Fixed income:

After a sharp sell-off that pushed the 10-year yield to its highest since October 2023 (~4.81%) and the 30-year to ~5.27% — levels last seen before Treasury Secretary Bessent expanded the buyback programme — yields edged slightly lower on Wednesday. The 1-year yield fell 2.3bps to 4.16%, the 10-year fell 0.5bps to 4.796%, and the 30-year fell 0.7bps to 5.268% by the close.
The rout spread across markets, with Japan's 10-year yield touching 3% for the first time since 1996, UK 30-year gilt yields hitting 5.89% — the highest since May 1998 — and German 10-year Bund yields reaching their highest since 2011.
Overnight swaps were pricing a full 25bp Fed rate hike at the October policy meeting, with nearly 70% odds of a hike as early as 16 September. BOJ board member Hajime Takata also left the door open for an outsized rate increase, pushing Japanese front-end yields higher during the Asian session.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.

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Jobs built the products. Cook built the machine. What does Apple’s new CEO build next?

Wed, 02 Sep 2026 11:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Ternus inherits 2.5 billion active devices, a huge services business and one of corporate America’s strongest cash machines.
Apple’s biggest AI question is not whether it builds the best model, but whether it keeps controlling the consumer interface.
Watch installed-base growth, services, new-product adoption and capital allocation rather than judging the Ternus era by keynote applause.

Steve Jobs built products. Tim Cook built the machine around them. John Ternus now has to decide where that machine goes next.

Ternus officially became Apple’s chief executive officer (CEO) on 1 September 2026, after 25 years at the company and a long spell running hardware engineering. Cook remains executive chairman, giving Apple something close to continuity with new management.

Investors appeared comfortable with the handover, with Apple shares rising even as the broader market fell. The bigger question is much more interesting: how much does management matter when the business already owns one of the strongest moats in the world?

The moat is already doing much of the work

Ternus does not inherit a turnaround. He inherits an ecosystem.

Apple has more than 2.5 billion active devices, while Services has grown into a business generating more than 100 billion USD a year. Every iPhone can lead to AirPods, an Apple Watch, iCloud, payments, entertainment and, eventually, another iPhone.

That is Apple’s compounding engine. Hardware brings customers in. Services deepen the relationship. A larger installed base creates more opportunities to sell both.

Capital allocation completes the picture. Apple continues to return tens of billions of dollars through buybacks and dividends. For investors influenced by Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, this is where management matters most.

Apple does not need managerial heroics. It needs discipline. Ternus must protect the ecosystem, allocate enormous cash flows sensibly and avoid expensive distractions. A great moat gives management room to make mistakes. It does not make those mistakes free.

AI may test who really owns the customer

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the clearest strategic challenge.

Apple has looked unusually slow while OpenAI, Alphabet and others pushed ahead. But it may not need to build the biggest or smartest AI model to remain powerful.

Its advantage sits closer to the customer. Apple controls the phone, operating system, headphones, watch and computer around them. If AI models become increasingly interchangeable, Apple can let others spend heavily building the engines while it controls the dashboard.

That is why features such as Live Translation on AirPods matter. They turn AI from something impressive in a demo into something useful in everyday life. That is much closer to Apple’s traditional playbook than launching another chatbot.

The risk is that the dashboard itself changes. If consumers increasingly start with an AI assistant rather than an app or operating system, Apple could lose some control over the customer relationship. Ternus must decide what Apple needs to own and where partnerships are enough.

The next iPhone does not have to be another iPhone

Hardware still matters, particularly with a hardware engineer now in charge.

Apple is preparing products ranging from a foldable iPhone to smarter home devices and more capable AirPods. None needs to become the next iPhone to create value.

A foldable phone can encourage upgrades. A home device can extend Apple’s ecosystem into another room. Smarter AirPods can make the iPhone more useful without replacing it.

That may be the more realistic innovation test for the Ternus era. Apple does not necessarily need another revolutionary category. It needs a steady stream of products and features that make the ecosystem more useful and leaving it slightly less attractive.

Where the machine could slow

The biggest risk is that AI changes consumer behaviour faster than Apple adapts. Investors should watch whether Siri becomes genuinely useful, not simply better on stage.

Product innovation matters too. Vision Pro showed that technical achievement does not automatically create a mass market. Supply-chain, regulatory and geopolitical pressures add another layer.

Early warning signs would include slowing installed-base growth, weaker Services momentum or rising investment without better customer engagement.

Investor playbook

Follow the ecosystem: installed devices and Services growing together matter more than one quarter of iPhone sales.
Separate AI demos from behaviour: watch usage, upgrades and developer adoption.
Judge hardware by ecosystem value: smaller products can matter if they strengthen customer retention.
Watch the cash: buybacks, acquisitions and capital spending show where management sees future returns.

The machine gets a new driver

Jobs built the products. Cook turned them into an extraordinarily efficient compounding machine.

Ternus inherits something different: a machine that already works.

His challenge is not simply to invent the next breakthrough. It is to decide where Apple must lead, where it can follow and where restraint is the better choice. AI, foldables and the home will test those decisions. For investors, the most important question is not whether Ternus changes Apple quickly. It is whether he understands which parts of the machine need changing at all.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Apple

Shein finally goes public. Now comes the harder test

Tue, 01 Sep 2026 11:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Shein’s advantage comes from testing tiny product batches and scaling winners quickly, not simply from selling cheap clothes.
New tariffs, parcel fees and regulation are making that model more expensive and harder to reproduce across markets.
Inditex and H&M show why brand, inventory discipline and distribution can matter more than pure speed.

Shein taught fashion to behave a little like a social-media feed: test something, watch the reaction, then produce more of what people click on.

On 1 September 2026, the China-founded, Singapore-headquartered retailer finally reached the Hong Kong stock market after failed attempts to list in New York and London. Its initial public offering (IPO) valued the company at roughly USD 26.5 billion, far below the near USD 100 billion valuation reached in 2022. Shares traded below the offer price during their first session.

For investors, the question is not whether Shein can still sell a lot of clothes. It is whether the machinery behind those sales remains as powerful when its regulatory and cost advantages start to fade.

The business model is the product

Shein’s real innovation sits behind the screen.

Traditional fashion retailers often decide months ahead what to sell and in what quantities. Shein instead launches designs in batches as small as 100 to 200 items, watches demand in real time and quickly reorders the products that work.

That can reduce unsold stock and lets Shein offer huge variety without committing as much money upfront. In simple terms, Shein tries to make demand first and inventory second.

But part of this machine was built around cheap cross-border shipping from China. The United States has removed an important duty exemption for low-value packages, while the European Union introduced a EUR 3 fee on many low-value e-commerce parcels in July.

Those changes do not destroy Shein’s model. They make it less frictionless. Local warehouses and production can reduce tariff exposure, but also add cost and complexity. The test is whether Shein can preserve its speed while becoming a more conventional global retailer.

Zara and H&M are slower, but harder to dismiss

This is where Europe’s established fashion groups become useful comparisons.

Inditex owns Zara and combines stores, online sales, tight inventory control and frequent product refreshes. Its first-quarter 2026 results showed sales growth and stronger gross profitability.

H&M is in a different position. Sales have been softer, but the Swedish group has improved profitability and reduced inventory. Its latest results show that better stock management and cost control can still create value when revenue barely moves.

Neither company can match Shein’s endless digital assortment. But speed is not the only useful measure.

Inditex and H&M have established brands, physical distribution and long operating histories. They have already navigated fashion cycles, recessions and competitive shifts. Shein now has to prove that its newer model can survive a similar test.

The hidden cost of becoming normal

The IPO gives Shein capital, visibility and a public valuation. It also removes some of the mystery.

Investors can now watch whether growth returns, margins recover and higher logistics costs eat into each order. The old private-market valuation matters much less than what the business can earn under today’s rules.

The risks are visible. Regulation could make ultra-cheap cross-border fashion more expensive. Competition from Temu, Zara and H&M could push marketing costs higher. Governance also deserves attention because Shein’s founders retain overwhelming voting control after the listing.

Early warning signs include weaker repeat purchases, rising fulfilment and marketing costs, lower margins, or evidence that localising production makes the supply chain less efficient.

Investor playbook

Compare growth with the cost required to produce it. Faster sales matter less if fulfilment and marketing costs rise faster.
Watch inventory and margins together. Strong retailers sell the right products without relying heavily on discounts.
Treat regulation as part of the business model. An advantage built on exemptions is less durable when those exemptions disappear.
Compare Shein with Inditex and H&M on durability, not only growth.

Speed was never the whole moat

Shein’s story began with speed. It could spot a trend, test it cheaply and scale the winners before traditional retailers had finished planning the season. The IPO does not make that advantage disappear, but it changes the question investors need to ask. The contest is no longer about who can move fastest under the old rules.

It is about who can keep moving when the rules, costs and expectations become tougher. Inditex and H&M show that slower systems can still create durable economics through brand, inventory discipline and distribution. Shein now has to prove that its digital engine can do the same. A fashion feed can refresh every second. A listed company has to compound for years.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Initial Public Offering (IPO)

Asia Market Quick Take – 01 September 2026

Tue, 01 Sep 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 1 Sep, 2026

Key points:

Macro: US-Iran resume hostilities. Bessent tells BoJ to raise rates.
Equities: Dow fell 0.7% as AMZN -2.5% on ad lawsuit; Nvidia to invest $3.5 in MediaTek
FX: Softening USD extends August decline; Yen stays near 160 despite BOJ speculation
Commodities: Crude up on Hormuz fears; gold down on rate repricing
Fixed income: US 10y yield hits 19-month high, >4.75%

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

Renewed US-Iran clashes are heightening energy supply risks as US forces hit Iranian launchers and Trump threatens Kharg Island. Oil still transits the Strait of Hormuz despite a supertanker fire from naval mines, while Russian refinery strikes are tightening global refining capacity and lifting fuel margins.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent reportedly told BOJ Governor Ueda and Finance Minister Katayama at the G20 in North Carolina that Japan’s next move should be a rate hike, adding he expects a stronger yen following BOJ and government action.
UK shop price inflation rose to 1.5% in August 2026 from 0.9% in July, the highest since February 2024, driven by higher energy and input costs. Food prices climbed 2.8% and non-food 0.9%, while UK CPI was 2.9% in July, with the BoE expecting a 3.2% peak later in the year.
Germany’s annual inflation rose to 2.9% in August 2026, a four-month high but just below the 3.0% forecast, driven by energy inflation jumping to 10.5%, while food inflation slowed to 0.1% and core inflation held at 2.4%.
The Dallas Fed’s Texas manufacturing index rose to 11.6 in August 2026 from 1.3 in July, its highest since January 2025, with stronger production, new orders, shipments, and capacity use. Price pressures stayed high, uncertainty remained elevated, but firms turned more optimistic about the next six months.
Australia’s Melbourne Institute inflation gauge rose 0.5% in August 2026, down from 1.0% in July, suggesting easing but still elevated price pressures. Annual inflation slowed to 3.5% in July, above the RBA’s 2–3% target, and the bank expects a gradual return to target by late 2027 amid ongoing global and domestic risks.
Japan’s retail sales rose 4% year-on-year in July 2026, beating the 3% forecast and up from 0.6% in June, led by a 16.2% jump in motor vehicle sales and broad rebounds across most categories. Month-on-month, sales climbed 2.4% after a 3.9% fall in June.

Equities:

US — The S&P 500 fell 0.3% to 7,686 on Monday, its second consecutive decline, as Middle East tensions and rising oil prices weighed on sentiment. The Dow shed 0.7% to 53,186, while the Nasdaq 100 edged up 0.1%. Nine of 11 S&P sectors closed lower, led by communication services and utilities. Amazon was the largest drag on the S&P 500, falling 2.5% after the FTC filed a lawsuit over ad pricing, while Edison International collapsed 23.1%. Nvidia will invest $3.5b in Taiwan’s MediaTek to deepen collaboration in the custom AI chips space. In after-hours trade, GameStop rose 2.85% after preliminary Q2 net sales of $780–800m beat the $757m consensus.
EU — European equities slid on Monday, with the Stoxx 600 falling 0.6% to 651 and the Euro Stoxx 50 dropping 1.0% to 6,420, as rising oil prices on the US-Iran flare-up weighed on sentiment. Trading volumes were approximately 40% below normal with London closed for a bank holiday. ASML fell 2.9%, leading the Stoxx 600 lower. Siemens Energy dropped 5.0% and was the DAX's biggest decliner, with the index falling 1.2% to 26,258. The SMI fell 0.8%, led lower by Holcim (-2.7%) and Roche (-1.6%). Oil majors TotalEnergies, Shell and Eni were among the few gainers.
Asia — The Kospi initially plunged as much as 3.6% before erasing all losses to close up 0.5% at 6,820, aided by pension fund buying of approximately 120 billion won in tech names over a 20-minute window. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both recovered from losses exceeding 4% to close little changed. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index ended little changed after falling more than 1% at the open. China's CSI 300 rose 0.3%. In Hong Kong, PSBC surged 8.8% after first-half net interest income met estimates. Biren Technology jumped as much as 17% after reporting a narrower first-half loss and a sharp jump in revenue. Asian equity futures are pointing lower on Tuesday, with higher crude above $86 and elevated Treasury yields the key headwinds, though overnight SOX gains should cushion declines in memory-heavy markets. Shein raised HK$13.6b ($1.7b) in its Hong Kong IPO, selling about 280m shares at HK$48.56 and valuing it just over $26b—below H&M’s ~$30b. In gray-market trading, shares fell up to 17% to HK$40.04 by late Monday and it starts trading today.

Earnings this week:

Tuesday: SHEIN (IPO), Nio, Sino Land, Palo Alto Networks, Medtronic
Wednesday: Broadcom, Snowflake
Thursday: Ciena

FX:

USD starts the Asia session softer, extending August’s decline, with the Dollar Index down 0.39% on the month and 0.19% on the final day, as markets weigh higher oil on Iran tensions, hawkish Warsh-driven Fed hike odds, and potential yen-supportive BOJ/MOF action.
AUD and NZD outperform in the Asia session. AUDUSD is described as flat amid the oil spike and hawkish Fed bets keeping traders cautious.
EUR gained 0.76% against the USD in August — its second consecutive monthly gain — and rose 0.27% on Aug 31 alone, snapping a three-session losing streak. It sits 3.53% below its 52-week high of 1.2042.
USDJPY is marginally softer at 159.73 despite a strong Japan consumption print, which the yen failed to benefit from. Bessent reportedly held talks with BOJ Governor Ueda and Finance Minister Katayama, with reports suggesting Bessent expects Japan to take action to boost the yen and signalling a BOJ rate-hike chance.
USD lost 1.21% vs. CAD in August — its largest two-month decline since January 2026 — and fell 0.37% on Aug 31.
Both NOK and SEK firmer, consistent with the broader USD softness and elevated oil prices supporting NOK.

Commodities:

WTI crude rose 2.8% on Monday to settle near $86 a barrel — its biggest single-session gain in three weeks — after US forces struck an island in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran retaliated against the UAE and Jordan. WTI extended gains above $86.30 in early Asian trading on Tuesday. Brent settled near $90 on Monday. The renewed fighting has revived fears of prolonged disruptions to energy flows through the strait.
Gold steadied around $4,445 an ounce after falling more than 3.5% over the prior two sessions. The metal is caught between safe-haven demand from Middle East tensions and headwinds from rising Fed rate-hike expectations, which have boosted real yields and pressured bullion.

Fixed income:

The 10-year Treasury yield topped 4.75% on Monday for the first time since January 2025, driven by rising oil prices amplifying inflation concerns and cementing bets on a September Fed rate hike. The 30-year yield rose to 5.248%, extending a four-day run higher. The long end led the selloff, steepening the yield curve after Friday's sharp flattening post-Warsh.
JPMorgan's rates strategists unwound their 2s10s steepener recommendation at a 7.6bp loss following Warsh's "somewhat more hawkish than expected" Jackson Hole address. The bank had previously flagged that Warsh's speech added to his credibility on the inflation fight, making the steepener untenable in the near term.
JGB futures are expected to fall as elevated oil prices and Bessent's call for BOJ rate hikes weigh on sentiment. The 10-year JGB auction will be closely watched for its read-across to global bond markets.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

The FX Trader: Restrained USD reaction to Warsh hawkishness

Mon, 31 Aug 2026 12:05:00 Z

Incoming data to take over this week.

The latest

The market was caught off guard by Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish speech at the Fed’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming symposium on Friday. The reaction function – more in gold and US treasuries than in the stronger US dollar – was to a large degree the US Treasury’s fault. When the Bessent Treasury recently announced the doubling of long-term treasury buybacks on August 19th and the idea was even floated (according to two Treasury officials cited by CNBC’s Steve Liesman) of the Treasury using its large “General Account” to throw its weight into supporting the US treasury market, it felt like US officialdom was circling the wagons around the US treasury market. And with increasing talk in recent years of “fiscal dominance”, in which US fiscal policy priorities far outweigh anything the Fed might consider doing with monetary policy, it was thought that the new Fed chair was brought on board to support the Treasury.

Instead, Chair Warsh has consistently made all the “right” orthodox noises on Fed independence, on the need to get ahead of inflation and on the sanctity of the 2% inflation target. That was the impression at his first presser as Fed Chair back at the June FOMC meeting, and it was the impression on Friday, even if he continues to avoid explicit forward guidance for the September rate hike decision. Warsh said that the Fed has “work to do” if inflation doesn’t retreat and said that financial conditions weren’t holding the economy back, while adjusting short-term interest rates are the Fed’s “predominant tool”. His rhetoric Friday shocked US treasury yields higher, especially at the short end of the curve as more Fed tightening was brought forward. The US 2-year rose more than 10 basis points at one point and the odds of a hike at the September meeting rose above 60%. And yet, we are still talking about a “terminal” Fed policy rate, if they do resume hiking, of only 50 basis points higher than the current rate – it would likely take considerable incoming data evidence on the inflation front to take Fed expectations higher still, assuming the labor market remains in its “low hire, low fire” state. The USD spiked higher, but we only trade back to 1.1600 in EURUSD now versus 1.1640 before the Warsh speech. USDJPY has reset back to levels prevailing just before Warsh spoke – interesting to note there that Japan said it had plowed over JPY 15 trillion (close to USD 100 billion) into defending its currency over the last month, while Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the BoJ would “do the right thing” in making coming policy decisions.

Bottom line: Follow on USD strength from here would likely have to come from incoming data more than the specific implications of this speech. We’ll get a decent amount of that this week (see preview below) but also watch oil prices and next week’s CPI data point as well. The longer end of the US yield curve and whether yields are positively correlated with the US dollar or uncorrelated is also critical. Recently, long US yields and the US dollar have arguably been slightly negatively correlated if there is any relationship at all. Given the timing of the US Treasury’s soft “intervention” - its announcement of buyback increases - with the break of the benchmark 30-year T-bond yield to 19-year highs, it is logical to conclude that the next US Treasury policy measures to support the treasury market will be reached for quickly if, for example, the benchmark US 10-year treasury yield breaks sharply above the recent 4.75% cycle high that was tested multiple times.

Chart focus: EURUSD
Note how the EURUSD sell-off almost neatly reverses the reaction to the Treasury buyback announcement from August 19th. This is a short-term reset of that extension to the upside, not yet a full reversal, which only starts to threaten if the price action continues down through 1.1580 (the previous high), although a punch down through 1.1450-1.1500 would be needed to develop any downside momentum and a retest of the longer-term range lows. The upside path is simpler, as a reversal of this latest sell-off wave would suggest the recent larger bull move off the sub-1.1400 base remains intact. In the big picture, EURUSD has been impossibly mired in the 1.1400-1.1800 range for over fourteen months except for a few spikes. The pair is almost exactly in the very middle of the range of the last many months.

Source: Saxo

Looking ahead

It’s a busy week ahead for US macro data as we watch whether the market extends its reaction to Fed Chair Warsh’s speech. This week we get the usual first-of-month data with the August ISM Manufacturing survey up on Tuesday, which also sees the July JOLTS job opening survey (poor quality and old-ish data, but the market reacts to surprises). On Wednesday we get the August ADP private payrolls change numbers (a typical soft +50k number expected there). On Thursday it’s the ISM Services survey. Finally, Friday sees the August jobs report ahead of the three-day Labor Day weekend. The market is expecting nonfarm payrolls growth of +50k after -23k in July, +20k in June and +63k in May.

The RBNZ set to continue it hiking cycle Wednesday.
The Bank is expected to follow up on its first-of-the-cycle July hike with another hike on Wednesday, with the forward guidance in focus as the market sees at least two hikes over the next three meetings, including this week’s.

Bank of Canada on Wednesday.
The Bank of Canada meeting will likely have Governor Tiff Macklem and company sitting on their hands, with little sense of being in a rush to do otherwise. Canada’s core inflation measure, the “trimmed mean” dropped to a more than five-year low in June and July of 1.9% after a persistent slide in the previous months. As well, the US and Canada are engaged in a trade tiff that will hit Canada far harder if the situation escalates.

FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.
Note: If unfamiliar with the FX board, please see a video tutorial for understanding and using the FX Board.

No surprise to see that the two weakest currencies (SEK, CHF) are Europe’s lowest yielding currencies, with CHF weakest while SEK is also weak from two angles: traditionally it is a pro-cyclical currency and traditionally does poorly when risk sentiment is on the defensive, but it’s more likely that the Riksbank’s low 1.75% policy rate and lack of urgency in moving that rate higher is the largest driver of SEK weakness, notable since Friday as EURSEK burst to a new 12 month high above 11.115. While the US dollar has turned around a bit in momentum terms, there is a lot more wood to chop to suggest it is powering up for a larger strengthening move. Sterling actually traded weaker Monday after BoE Governor Bailey said that the BoE would be happy to wait for a while before deciding on policy moves due to the slackening UK labor market. He also said that AI risks triggering a global economic downturn and risks to global financial stability.

Table: NEW FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.

AUDNZD is attempting to establish a new uptrend, with the Wednesday RBNZ meeting a key test there. It is far too early to point to new USD developments and the deep blue colors in so many pairs point to the very low volatility (often meeting lack of conviction in market direction) nearly everywhere outside of gold and silver.

John J. Hardy

Global Head of Macro Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Forex Highlighted articles Trump Version 2 - Traders FR US Actualites et Analyses EURUSD USDJPY UKMustRead

Broadcom vs Marvell: the custom-chip boom has an expectations problem

Mon, 31 Aug 2026 11:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Custom AI chips are becoming a second growth engine alongside Nvidia’s GPUs, with Broadcom and Marvell competing for Big Tech designs.
Marvell shows how strong results can disappoint when investors have already priced in even faster growth.
Broadcom’s Wednesday earnings will test both the custom-chip boom and investors’ increasingly demanding expectations.

A company can report record revenue, raise its outlook and tell investors that an important business will more than double next year. Its shares can still fall 10%.

Marvell Technology managed exactly that last week.

The chip designer raised its longer-term revenue expectations as demand for artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure accelerated. Yet Marvell closed at 216.62 USD on 28 August, down 10.3%, because investors wanted its new Google custom-chip partnership to generate meaningful revenue sooner.

That reaction offers a useful preview for Broadcom, which reports fiscal third-quarter results on Wednesday, 2 September. It also captures one of today’s most important investing lessons: great company plus great results does not automatically equal a great stock return. Expectations sit in the middle.

The chip is getting personal

Nvidia built the AI boom around the graphics processing unit (GPU), a flexible chip capable of handling many different computing tasks.

But flexibility is not always the cheapest option.

As AI moves from training models towards repeatedly running them for millions of users, known as inference, efficiency matters more. Google, Meta, OpenAI and other large technology companies increasingly want processors designed around their own workloads.

Think of the difference between a Swiss Army knife and a factory machine. Nvidia sells an exceptionally capable Swiss Army knife. Custom silicon is the machine built to perform one job repeatedly and efficiently.

This creates an expanding market for companies such as Broadcom and Marvell. They help customers turn their own chip ideas into products and also supply much of the networking technology connecting thousands of processors inside data centres.

The race is becoming more competitive. Google recently expanded its relationship with Marvell across custom processors, networking and memory technologies. The agreement could eventually generate up to 120 billion USD of orders through fiscal 2033. Importantly, Google appears to be adding Marvell alongside Broadcom rather than simply replacing Broadcom.

Broadcom, meanwhile, is helping Meta develop its Meta Training and Inference Accelerator (MTIA), with production of the latest generation expected to start in September. It has also developed OpenAI’s first custom inference processor, Jalapeño, which is expected to begin deployment by the end of 2026.

The important point is not that custom chips replace Nvidia. Big technology companies increasingly use several types of processors. The AI semiconductor market is becoming larger and more specialised at the same time.

Marvell delivered. Expectations moved faster

That sounds ideal for Marvell.

Quarterly revenue reached 2.74 billion USD, while management lifted its fiscal 2027 revenue outlook to around 12 billion USD and fiscal 2028 expectations to around 18 billion USD. Custom-chip revenue is expected to more than double next year.

The problem was timing.

Management indicated that the largest contribution from Google would arrive from fiscal 2029. Investors had already pushed Marvell shares sharply higher this year partly because they expected custom silicon to become a much larger business.

The result was therefore good, but the change in expectations was not good enough.

Compare that with Salesforce and CrowdStrike one day earlier.

Salesforce, which sells software that helps companies manage customers and sales, raised its annual outlook and showed better demand for its AI products. Its shares closed at 252.05 USD, up 22.6%.

CrowdStrike, a cybersecurity company, reported record net new annual recurring revenue (ARR), a measure of new subscription business. Its shares closed at 227.96 USD, up 20.5%.

Why such different reactions? Salesforce and CrowdStrike entered earnings carrying fears that AI could disrupt software. Strong results reduced that fear. Marvell entered earnings carrying enormous optimism. Strong results confirmed much of the existing story rather than improving it.

That is the expectations game in one earnings week.

Broadcom now has to clear its own bar

Broadcom faces an unusually high hurdle on Wednesday.

Last quarter, its AI semiconductor revenue reached 10.8 billion USD, up 143% from a year earlier. Management expects roughly 16 billion USD this quarter, representing growth of more than 200%. Total revenue guidance stands around 29.4 billion USD.

Those numbers would normally look extraordinary. The complication is that extraordinary has become normal for leading AI companies.

Broadcom learned this in June. Revenue grew 48%, but still came slightly below market expectations. Its 16 billion USD AI forecast also fell just short of what analysts had hoped for. The business was booming. The expectation bar was simply higher.

Investors therefore need to look beyond whether Broadcom “beats”. More important will be what management says about the next stage: how quickly custom processors ramp, whether new customers add meaningful revenue, and whether AI networking grows alongside compute.

Broadcom’s advantage is that it can potentially collect revenue twice. It helps design specialised processors, then sells networking and connectivity products needed to make large clusters of those processors work together.

Risks: a bigger market can still disappoint

Custom silicon remains tied to a relatively small number of enormous customers. A delayed chip programme, lower infrastructure spending or a customer moving more work to another supplier can shift billions of future revenue.

Competition is also increasing. Marvell’s Google win shows that customers may deliberately use several suppliers. That expands the overall opportunity, but makes market share less predictable.

Finally, expectations matter. When investors already assume years of exceptional growth, even small delays can create large share-price reactions without meaning the long-term business has suddenly deteriorated.

Investor playbook

Separate results from expectations. Ask what investors appeared to expect before earnings, not simply whether revenue grew.
Follow timelines, not deal headlines. A large contract matters differently if revenue arrives next quarter rather than three years later.
Watch customer diversification. More custom-chip customers can strengthen growth, while supplier diversification can increase competitive pressure.
Treat share reactions as information, not verdicts. A falling stock can reflect lower expectations rather than worsening business fundamentals.

The business reports the numbers. The market grades the expectations

Broadcom’s earnings on 2 September will therefore test more than one company. They will test whether custom silicon is becoming a durable second pillar of AI infrastructure alongside Nvidia’s GPUs, and how much of that opportunity investors already assume.

Marvell has already shown the strange arithmetic of an optimistic market: revenue can rise, forecasts can rise and the share price can still fall. Salesforce and CrowdStrike showed the reverse when good results removed a major fear.

For investors, that distinction matters. Earnings tell you how the business performed. The share-price reaction tells you how that performance compared with the story investors had already paid for.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Theme - Artificial intelligence Artificial Intelligence

Market Quick Take - Warsh turns hawkish as Hormuz risk returns - 31 August 2026

Mon, 31 Aug 2026 06:00:00 Z

Market drivers and catalysts

Macro: A weekend strike near Hormuz collided with a hawkish Fed chair to reset the week
Equities: US stocks slipped on hawkish Fed signals, Europe rebounded, Asia recovered from early losses as rate fears and higher oil hit technology.
Digital Assets: Miners and treasury companies were sold hard while the coins themselves barely moved
Commodities: Crude jumps on renewed supply risks as Warsh drives precious metals slump; speculators rush into agriculture at record pace
Fixed Income: US Treasury yield curve bear flattens on hawkish Fed Chair Warsh speech Friday. Global yields follow US Treasury yields higher.
Currencies: USD stronger on hawkish Warsh speech, USDJPY briefly traded above 160.00.

Macro

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish speech at the Fed’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming symposium on Friday as he declared that inflation is not slowing and that interest rates are the “predominant tool” for the Fed to achieve its mandate, though he continued to criticize the notion of the Fed’s former forward guidance policy or to provide any specific hints on policy tightening. “I stand here today committed to a discipline, not to a decision”.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects the Bank of Japan will “do the right thing” on policy and said he expected to meet with Bank of Japan governor Ueda on the sidelines of the upcoming G20 summit, which starts today in North Carolina. Japan’s Ministry of Finance said Friday that its intervention to support the JPY had deployed over JPY 15 trillion (USD 96 billion).
A weekend military exchange reset the geopolitical backdrop. The US struck Iranian rocket launchers reportedly preparing to mine the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, its first such attack in over a month, alongside increased sanctions pressure. Roughly 6 to 8 million barrels of crude still transit the strait each day. An Iranian official said renewed talks with Washington are not impossible.
More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1200 – Germany Flash Aug. CPI
UK Summer Bank Holiday

Earnings events

Tuesday: Palo Alto Networks, Medtronic, MongoDB, Credo Technology, NIO, GitLab, Dell Technologies
Wednesday: Broadcom, Snowflake, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, NetApp, Five Below
Thursday: Zscaler, Lululemon, Ciena, Samsara, DocuSign, Planet Labs

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 fell 0.3%, the Dow slipped less than 0.1% and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.7% on Friday as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks lifted rate expectations and hit technology shares. Nvidia fell 4.6%, while Marvell Technology sank 10.3% despite beating estimates as its outlook failed to clear elevated AI expectations. PayPal tumbled 12.7% after Stripe and Advent International abandoned takeover talks, while Amazon gained 4.0% after an analyst raised its price target on improving AI-driven retail efficiency. Markets now turn to US jobs data and the September Fed decision.
Europe: The Stoxx 600 rose 0.5%, Germany’s DAX gained 0.8%, the FTSE 100 added 0.3% and France’s CAC 40 rebounded 1% on Friday as French stocks recovered and autos led gains. BMW jumped 4.5% and Forvia rose 5.1% after Citi placed both on positive catalyst watches, pointing to depressed expectations and potential upside from upcoming company and policy events. EssilorLuxottica gained 2.4% after announcing a share buyback, while French banks also recovered from Thursday’s selloff. European investors now face the same uncomfortable mix of firmer oil prices and higher-rate risk.
Asia: Asian equities recovered sharply from steep opening losses on Monday, with Japan’s Nikkei down 0.2% and South Korea’s Kospi 0.3% lower after earlier falling more than 2% and 3%, respectively. Markets initially sold off as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish remarks and higher oil prices raised concerns over rates and inflation, but buyers quickly returned to technology shares. Chinese brokerages remained in focus after listed securities firms reported combined first-half profits up more than 40%, while BYD said overseas revenue exceeded domestic revenue for the first time in the first half of 2026.
More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Digital Assets

The listed crypto complex was sold hard on Friday even as the coins barely moved over the weekend. IREN fell 12.53% after fiscal fourth-quarter results in which AI cloud revenue overtook mining for the first time but impairments weighed. Marathon lost 10.11%, CleanSpark 9.96%, Cipher 9.54% and Riot 9.05%, with Strategy down 7.34% and Coinbase 6.33%.
US spot bitcoin funds drew about USD 924 million over the 24 to 28 August week, keeping the month’s intake above USD 3 billion. Flow was uneven, with IBIT taking USD 228 million against redemptions elsewhere.

Commodities

Crude jumped, with Brent trading back above USD 90, as fresh fighting flared in the Middle East and the US signalled it was likely to unveil new secondary sanctions on Iran. The US struck Iranian rocket launchers that were reportedly preparing to deploy mines into the Strait of Hormuz, while Jordan’s army intercepted eight missiles after Tehran’s military claimed attacks against American forces in the kingdom. These developments have once again reduced the prospects of bringing the conflict to an end. However, with an estimated 6–8 million barrels per day of crude flowing through the Strait, the upside risk is for now being capped.
Gold led the precious metals sector sharply lower following Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech, in which he pledged to fight inflation, lifting expectations that the Fed could raise rates before year-end. The weakness extended into Monday’s session after bullion closed back below its 200-day moving average on Friday, currently at USD 4,528, forcing traders to reassess the short-term technical outlook. The next key support is around USD 4,328, the 50% retracement of the August rally. Focus remains on the dollar and bond yields, while the longer-term fiscal challenge posed by US debt at around USD 40 trillion has not disappeared.
The recent rally across key agricultural commodities, supported by war and weather-related supply concerns, has triggered a record two-week accumulation of speculative length. In the two weeks to 25 August, the managed-money net long across ten major grain and soft commodity futures jumped by a record 523,000 contracts to more than 1 million contracts, the highest in four years and representing a nominal value of more than USD 40 billion. The speed of the turnaround has been particularly striking, potentially leaving the recently established longs exposed to a sudden change in the bullish narrative.
More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

The US Treasury yield curve bear flattened Friday in reaction to the more hawkish than expected speech from Fed Chair Warsh. Yields eased slightly in early Monday trading in Asia, but the benchmark two-year yield is still some seven basis points higher than it was before Warsh’s speech, trading near the top of the range since late 2024 as the odds of a September 16 FOMC rate hike rose above 50%. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield is some three basis points higher than before the speech at 4.71% as the Treasury market eyes the key 4.75% area that has marked the top of the range on multiple occasions over the last month.
Global bond yields rose in line with US Treasuries late Friday and early Monday in the wake of Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish speech. The benchmark German two-year yield lifted four basis points to close the week just below 2.91%, the highest level for the year and since mid-2024. Japan’s benchmark two-year JGB yield rose two basis points to 1.73%, a new modern high since the mid-1990s.

Currencies

The US dollar rose sharply on Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish speech. USDJPY traded through 160.00 Friday and briefly in early Monday trading for the first time since the official intervention in late July and at the beginning of August. By early European hours, USDJPY returned to the 159.80 area, only slightly above the levels trading before Warsh’s speech. The reaction in EURUSD was stickier, as it remained below 1.1600 by early Monday in Europe, solidly below the 1.1640–1.1650 area trading before Warsh’s speech.
The Swedish krona stands out among the weaker G10 currencies as the Riksbank has yet to hike its policy rate for the cycle and is seen as likely slow to do so. EURSEK rose from 11.09 to nearly 11.15 in the wake of US Fed Chair Warsh’s speech on Friday, posting its highest level in almost exactly a year.
More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis

Saxo Bank

After Nvidia, where does the AI money go next?

Fri, 28 Aug 2026 11:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Nvidia confirms strong AI computing demand, but the spending chain is becoming much broader.
Proprietary data and workflows may gain value as powerful AI models become easier to access.
More autonomous AI creates new needs around identity, security and recovery.

Nvidia’s results on 26 August 2026 confirmed that demand for artificial intelligence (AI) computing remains enormous. But this earnings week also suggested that the AI opportunity is starting to spread well beyond the graphics processing unit (GPU).

Across chips, software and cybersecurity, a clearer picture is emerging of what comes next. AI increasingly needs three things to scale: compute to run, context to become useful, and control to be trusted.

Compute is becoming more specialised

Marvell designs chips and networking technology for data centres. Revenue rose 37% to a record 2.74 billion USD, with Data Center revenue up 46%.

Its results also show the gap between winning a design and earning the revenue. Marvell secured a major custom-chip agreement with Google, but management said the biggest contribution should arrive later, particularly from fiscal 2029.

Synopsys sells software and intellectual property used to design complex chips and systems. Revenue reached 2.48 billion USD, up about 42%, while management raised its outlook and pointed to AI-driven complexity.

As hyperscalers build more customised infrastructure, value can spread towards companies that help design, connect and optimise specialised systems.

Context may become software’s new moat

Powerful AI models increasingly have similar general capabilities. What they do not automatically have is a company’s customer history, payroll records, engineering designs and business rules.

That gives established software companies an interesting asset: context.

Salesforce stores customer and sales data. Agentforce and Data 360 annual recurring revenue (ARR) reached nearly 3.9 billion USD, up more than 210%. Its expanded Anthropic partnership makes the logic clear: Salesforce can make Claude more useful by connecting it to trusted data, workflows and governance.

Workday manages human resources and finance processes. AI products generated more than 25% of new annual contract value, while more than 5,500 customers now use at least one Workday agent.

Autodesk extends the argument into engineering and construction. Its software sits inside project workflows, giving AI access to rich technical context. Management argues that useful AI in the physical world requires trusted project data.

If intelligence becomes easier to access, the moat can migrate from owning the model to owning what makes the model useful.

Control becomes more valuable as AI gains autonomy

The third layer appears when AI stops answering questions and starts taking actions.

A company running thousands of agents must know which agent is acting, what it can access and how to recover if something goes wrong.

CrowdStrike protects devices and cloud systems. Its Falcon Flex ARR exceeded 2.29 billion USD, up 101%, suggesting customers increasingly want a broader security platform.

Okta manages digital identities and access. Revenue grew a more modest 11%, which is a useful reminder that a convincing AI story is not the same as proven monetisation. Still, every agent needs an identity and permissions.

Rubrik adds recovery and data protection. Subscription ARR rose 33% to 1.66 billion USD, while its strategy increasingly includes securing AI-agent activity.

More autonomous AI can therefore create some of the security spending needed to make further adoption possible.

The risks are moving too

Custom-chip projects can take years to scale. Software companies may own valuable data without successfully charging more for AI access. Security vendors may face tougher competition as larger platforms bundle more tools.

Watch delayed production ramps, weak AI-related contract growth and rising usage that fails to become recurring revenue.

Investor playbook

Separate AI exposure into compute, context and control rather than treating every AI company as the same trade.
Track conversion, not announcements. Design wins, pilots and agent usage matter when they become revenue and cash flow.
Ask whether AI strengthens an existing moat, such as proprietary data or embedded workflows.
Keep diversification in mind. The AI value chain is widening, but expectations can widen even faster.

From compute to context and control

Nvidia remains the clearest proof that the AI infrastructure boom is alive. Yet this earnings week suggests the opportunity is becoming broader and more layered. Marvell and Synopsys help build specialised infrastructure. Salesforce, Workday and Autodesk give AI the business context it needs. CrowdStrike, Okta and Rubrik help companies trust it enough to act.

That does not make every company in the chain a winner. It does give investors a more useful map. The first phase rewarded scarce computing power. The next may reward scarce context and control. Compute makes AI possible, context makes it useful, and control makes it deployable at scale.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Theme - Artificial intelligence Artificial Intelligence

Software’s next growth problem: more customers or more from each customer?

Wed, 26 Aug 2026 08:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Intuit is accepting slower near-term growth to attract and retain more customers.
Zoom is trying to sell more products to customers already using its platform.
For investors, where growth comes from can matter as much as how fast revenue grows.

Growing a software company used to look almost suspiciously simple. Add customers, raise prices and sell more licences.

Intuit and Zoom Communications show why the next stage is harder.

Intuit, which owns TurboTax, QuickBooks, Credit Karma and Mailchimp, expects revenue growth to slow from 14% in fiscal 2026 to 9% to 10% in fiscal 2027. Management is deliberately prioritising customer growth, including through pricing and higher spending to attract customers.

Zoom is taking almost the opposite route. Its video-meeting business is mature, so it wants existing customers to buy more products.

For investors, the contrast offers a useful lesson. Revenue growth is only the final number. The interesting part is how a company creates it.

Intuit lowers the toll

Intuit has spent years benefiting from strong brands, recurring demand and pricing power. Now it is testing whether charging customers less today can create more value tomorrow.

Management says pricing has become an important reason some TurboTax customers leave. The company is responding by widening access and investing more in attracting customers.

That comes with a cost. TurboTax revenue is expected to grow just 2% to 3% in fiscal 2027, while Mailchimp revenue could be flat or fall slightly.

The key question is simple: is Intuit voluntarily lowering the toll to get more cars onto the bridge, or is competition forcing it to lower the toll?

The first can be smart investment. Lower prices can bring in customers who remain for years and later buy other services. The second is more concerning because it can signal weakening pricing power.

Investors therefore need to look beyond slower revenue growth. Customer growth, retention and future spending per customer will tell us whether the sacrifice is paying off.

Zoom builds more rooms

Zoom has a different problem. Finding another pandemic-sized wave of video-meeting users is unlikely to be a sensible business plan.

Instead, Zoom is expanding what existing business customers can buy. Beyond Meetings, it now offers products including Phone, Contact Center and artificial intelligence (AI) tools.

This is called cross-selling: selling an existing customer another product.

There are signs of progress. Second-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue grew 4.9%, while enterprise revenue rose 7.8%, its fastest growth in three years. Adoption of Zoom's AI virtual agent also more than tripled from a year earlier.

The equation is simple:

existing customer → more products → higher customer value → faster enterprise growth

Zoom does not necessarily need millions of new customers if each existing relationship becomes broader.

Four ways software can grow

Intuit and Zoom highlight a useful framework. Most mature software companies have four basic growth levers:

Add more customers.
Raise prices.
Sell more products to existing customers.
Increase how much customers use or spend on existing products.

These routes are not equally attractive.

Price increases can be highly profitable, but only while customers accept them. Customer acquisition can expand the market, but becomes expensive if new users quickly leave. Cross-selling can be powerful because the company already has the customer relationship, but only if the new products are genuinely useful.

The quality of growth therefore depends partly on what happens after the first sale.

What can go wrong

For Intuit, the warning sign would be lower prices without meaningfully better customer growth or retention. That would leave the company earning less without gaining enough scale.

For Zoom, watch whether newer products keep growing faster than Meetings. If they remain too small to lift overall growth, strong adoption headlines may have limited financial impact.

Competition matters for both. Software customers have more choices, while AI could make it easier for rivals to launch new products.

Investor playbook

Look behind revenue growth: separate customer growth, pricing and additional product sales.
Watch retention: attracting customers creates little value if they leave quickly.
Follow spending per customer: rising customer value can support growth even in mature markets.
Compare growth with margins: faster growth becomes less attractive if acquiring it gets increasingly expensive.

Not all growth is created equal

Software growth rarely disappears overnight. It usually changes shape.

Intuit is trying to widen the funnel by making its products easier to enter. Zoom is trying to make each customer relationship bigger. Both approaches can work, and both can fail. The harder question is which route creates lasting value.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead

Beyond Nvidia: software earnings put AI’s second act on trial

Mon, 24 Aug 2026 08:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Nvidia tests AI infrastructure demand, while software earnings show whether that spending is creating revenue further downstream.
Salesforce, Workday and Zoom face a crucial test: can AI strengthen subscriptions rather than undermine them?
Cybersecurity and custom chips may offer cleaner AI growth stories as companies secure and diversify their infrastructure.

Nvidia will dominate the earnings calendar on Wednesday, 26 August. But investors looking beyond graphics processing units may learn just as much from the companies reporting around it.

From Tuesday to Thursday, Intuit, Zoom Communications, Salesforce, CrowdStrike, Okta, Workday, Autodesk, Rubrik, Synopsys and Marvell Technology all report. Together, they provide a useful test of the next stage of artificial intelligence (AI).

The first phase was simple enough: build more computing capacity. The next question is harder. Can companies turn all that computing power into products customers will repeatedly pay for?

That makes this week less about one earnings report and more about following the AI money downstream.

The software industry needs to show the receipts

Software as a service (SaaS) companies rely on recurring subscriptions. AI could strengthen that model by improving products and supporting higher spending, but it could also reduce employee numbers and therefore software licences.

That tension makes Salesforce an important test. The company is pushing its Agentforce AI agents, with more than half of Agentforce and Data 360 bookings last quarter coming from existing customers. Salesforce guided for second-quarter revenue growth of around 10% to 11%.

The key question is not how often management mentions AI. Investors need evidence that it increases customer spending, contract growth and retention.

Zoom offers another test. Paid monthly users of AI Companion grew 184% year-on-year last quarter, but total revenue increased only 5.5%. Intuit faces a similar challenge across QuickBooks and TurboTax, where proprietary financial data could help it build more useful AI tools.

The safest software may be the software protecting everything else

Cybersecurity could offer a cleaner AI story.

More AI agents mean more identities accessing corporate systems and data, creating more doors companies need to lock.

CrowdStrike enters Wednesday with annual recurring revenue (ARR) of 5.51 billion USD, while net new ARR grew 32% year-on-year last quarter. Okta provides another angle through identity security, where the question is whether protecting AI agents becomes an additional growth driver.

Rubrik adds data security and recovery. Its subscription ARR increased 32% last quarter, while revenue rose 39%.

More AI does not automatically mean more software revenue. But it probably means more systems, identities and data worth protecting.

Nvidia is not the only chip story anymore

Marvell reports Thursday after announcing a major custom-chip partnership with Alphabet's Google. The agreement could generate up to 120 billion USD of business through fiscal 2033 if purchasing targets are met.

The broader point is that AI chips are becoming more specialised. Nvidia remains central, particularly for training advanced models, but large cloud companies increasingly want processors designed around their own workloads.

Synopsys offers another route into that trend. Its software helps design and verify complex semiconductors, meaning more custom chips can also support demand for the tools used to build them.

Nvidia shows how strong AI infrastructure demand remains. Marvell and Synopsys show whether that spending is spreading into custom silicon and the wider semiconductor ecosystem.

Risks: AI adoption is not the same as AI economics

The main risk is confusing product adoption with monetisation. Millions of people can use an AI feature without materially increasing revenue.

A second warning sign would be weaker contract growth or retention at established software companies. That could suggest AI is reducing the value of traditional per-user subscriptions faster than vendors can create new revenue models.

Finally, expectations matter. Cybersecurity, custom chips and other perceived AI beneficiaries already carry substantial growth assumptions. Strong results may therefore need to be accompanied by equally strong outlooks.

Investor playbook

Separate usage from monetisation. Watch paid adoption, bookings and recurring revenue rather than AI product announcements alone.
Follow customer expansion. Strong retention and larger contracts show whether AI strengthens existing software relationships.
Compare different AI exposures. Application software, cybersecurity and custom chips face very different opportunities and risks.
Think across the value chain. AI exposure does not need to begin and end with the largest chipmaker.

AI’s second act is about monetisation

Nvidia will probably remain the week's biggest market event. But its numbers answer only one part of the AI investment question: how much computing infrastructure companies still want to buy.

The software reports tell investors what happens after those chips are installed. Salesforce, Workday and Zoom need to show that AI can strengthen their economics rather than weaken traditional subscriptions. CrowdStrike, Okta and Rubrik can demonstrate whether securing AI creates a new layer of recurring demand. Marvell and Synopsys test whether infrastructure spending is broadening beyond general-purpose processors.

The next phase of AI investing may therefore be less about who owns the fastest chip and more about who can keep sending customers an invoice once the chips start working.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Artificial Intelligence Theme - Artificial intelligence NVIDIA Corporation

Asia Market Quick Take – 24 August, 2026

Mon, 24 Aug 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 24 August, 2026

Key points:

Macro: US expected to sanction Iran. US-Canada trade talks fail.
Equities: S&P 500 snap winning streak; Robinhood +13% on crypto rally
FX: Dollar slumps as Treasury buyback pledge lifts commodity and EM currencies broadly
Commodities: Gold stay above $4,600, extending a three-week rally
Fixed income: Treasury yields remain elevated as 10 year near 4.74%

------------------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent vowed the “toughest” sanctions in history, aiming to intensify economic pressure on Iran and its trading partners. The move could further tighten global oil supplies, with Iranian exports already disrupted and offers to China reduced. Tehran dismissed the threat, saying it can withstand sanctions and maintain trade elsewhere, while tensions in the Strait of Hormuz remain high and traffic is still below normal
US–Canada trade talks collapsed Friday, partly over US tariffs on Canadian medium and heavy-duty vehicles. The 50% US tariffs on some Canadian goods have now taken effect, and Canadian PM Carney vowed to match them on US goods from September 8.
The US flash S&P Global Composite PMI rose to 56 in August 2026 from 54.5 in July, the strongest since April 2022. Faster services growth offset softer manufacturing, where output rose at the weakest pace in 13 months amid supply issues. Backlogs increased as delivery times lengthened. Hiring grew at the fastest rate since early 2025 and confidence hit a nine‑month high. Selling price pressures eased, though input costs remained elevated on higher energy prices.
Canadian retail sales are expected to fall 0.8% m/m in July, the sharpest drop in ten months, reversing June’s revised 0.6% gain. Sales rose for general merchandise, clothing-related stores, and motor vehicle and parts dealers, but fell 4.1% at gasoline stations as lower fuel prices offset higher volumes. Turnover was up 5.2% from a year earlier.
Euro Area 12‑month inflation expectations fell to 2.9% in July 2026 from 3.0% in June; three‑year expectations dipped to 2.7%, and the five‑year outlook stayed at 2.4%. Uncertainty remained high, with lower‑income and older households expecting higher inflation than richer and younger groups. Expected income growth slipped to 1%, spending stayed at 3.6%, and expected GDP growth improved to -1.2%. Lower‑income households saw faster home‑price gains (4%) than higher‑income ones (3.1%).
UK retail sales volumes fell 0.5% m/m in July 2026 after a revised 0.7% rise in June, the first decline since April. Non‑food store sales dropped 1.3% on weaker clothing and household goods, and non‑store sales also fell after strong promotion‑driven gains in prior months. Food store sales rose 0.5%, supported by hot weather and the World Cup. Annual growth slowed to 1.6% from 3.8% in June.

Equities:

US — S&P 500 snapped a three-week winning streak last week, dragged lower by a surge in the 30-year Treasury yield to 5.34% — a 19-year high — before partially recovering on Friday. The VIX closed the week at 15.13, up 6.2% week-on-week. US steel stocks including Nucor and Steel Dynamics rallied on the collapse of US-Canada trade talks. Robinhood surged 13% on Thursday, the best performer in the S&P 500 that day on crypto moves. Moderna jumped over 15% on Friday, extending a remarkable week-to-date gain of over 143%. Target rallied 4.5% on Friday after earnings doubled. Heading into this week, Nasdaq 100 futures are edging up 0.1% as Nvidia earnings on Wednesday dominate the agenda.
EU — The Stoxx Europe 600 slipped 0.6% last week to 654 points, its second consecutive weekly decline, at one point logging its longest daily losing streak since September 2023 before a Friday rebound. The DAX fell 1.1% on the week, while the CAC 40 dropped 1.76% — its largest weekly decline since July 10. The FTSE 100 rose 0.6% on Friday (Aug 21) to 10,816, led by HSBC (+1.1%) and JD Sports (+5.6%). A notable deal: Monte dei Paschi di Siena launched all-share bids for Banco BPM and Banca Generali, valued together at approximately €34 billion (~$40 billion), in a move to create a major Italian banking group with a ~€70 billion market cap.
Asia — Asian equities are edging lower this Monday morning, with the MSCI Asia Pacific gauge down 0.1%. The Kospi is the notable underperformer, falling 1.2% as the AI-sensitive index digests the upcoming Nvidia earnings and broader chip sector caution. Hang Seng faces early headwinds as investors digest an announcement from Alibaba to raise US$10b to fund AI spending — the index's third-largest constituent — though a rebound is expected given the AI rotation trade supporting the market. Last week, Korean chip stocks bore the brunt of the global bond selloff, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix each slumping more than 8% at their lows on Wednesday (Aug 19). Singapore's STI has been a relative outperformer, having surged approximately 23% over the past month on a "Goldilocks" economic backdrop of robust tech exports and contained inflation. Vietnam's Vingroup and over 100 Vietnamese companies were added to FTSE Russell's Global Equity Indexes on Friday, marking the country's transition to secondary emerging market status.

Earnings this week:

Monday (24 Aug) - Xpeng, PDD Holdings
Tuesday (25 Aug) — Intuit, Zoom
Wednesday (26 Aug) — Nvidia, Salesforce, CrowdStrike, HP, Haidilao, Li Auto
Thursday (27 Aug) — Marvell, IREN, Affirm
Friday (28 Aug) — BYD Electronic, China Construction Bank, ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China

FX:

The USD extended its decline on Friday, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipping 0.2% on the day and 0.8% over the week to a three‑month low, its weakest August week. Selling was sparked by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s pledge to at least double buybacks of longer‑dated bonds to cap yields, drawing comparisons to Japan’s yield‑curve control and raising concerns about the dollar’s reliability as a hedge.
AUDUSD rose 0.80% to 0.7171 and NZDUSD gained 0.59% to 0.5978, in line with CFTC data showing increased AUD longs and reduced NZD shorts.
CHF was the strongest G10 currency on the week (up 1.65% vs USD) even though USDCHF ticked slightly higher on the day to 0.8012, while JPY was the weakest G10 performer on the week, with USDJPY edging down only 0.06% on the day to 158.95 as hedge funds rebuilt shorts.
EUR lagged, with EURUSD essentially flat at 1.1679 despite broad dollar weakness, consistent with sizable leveraged‑fund net EUR shorts.
KRW was the top Asian performer, dropping 1% intraday against the USD on shareholder‑return plans from local chipmakers.

Commodities:

Gold climbed above $4,620, building on a third consecutive weekly gain and rising more than 5% last week after the Treasury's surprise ramp-up in buybacks of long-dated government debt revived concerns about a weaker dollar and pushed investors toward alternatives.
Oil slipped after a two-week rally as traders awaited the US plan to economically isolate Iran due later Monday, with Brent falling toward $93 after about 13% gains and WTI near $86, as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent prepares to unveil details and press allies to join.
LME copper's spot price traded as much as $545 per metric ton above the three-month futures contract on 17 August — the widest backwardation since a historic squeeze in 2021 — as near-term supply tightness in the LME warehouse network intensified.

Fixed income:

The 30-year US Treasury yield touched 5.34% last week — the highest since 2007 — driven by fiscal concerns, a flood of long-dated supply and sticky inflation. The Treasury responded by announcing plans to at least double the size of liquidity support buyback operations for longer-dated securities. The 30-year bond auction on 13 August cleared at 5.216%, the highest yield since 2001. The 30-year TIPS auction on 20 August cleared at 2.973%, up from 2.473% in February, with strong demand (bid-to-cover 2.82).
The 10-year yield traded around 4.70% on Friday 21 August. Bessent's "Treasury twist" — buying back long-dated debt while issuing more short-dated securities — has drawn comparisons to the Fed's 1960s Operation Twist and the 2011 deployment. BofA's Hartnett warned that if Bessent cannot drag the 30-year yield below 5%, he foresees a dollar slump and increased short bets against leveraged risk assets including AI hyperscalers and private credit. All eyes are on Warsh's Jackson Hole speech Friday for policy direction.
The inexorable rise in long-term government bond yields is spreading globally. Japanese 30-year yields rose above 4% for the first time in their 27-year history earlier this year, while equivalent UK gilts hit their highest since 1998.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance. The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

Nvidia’s moat is getting attacked from multiple sides

Thu, 20 Aug 2026 09:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Cerebras attacks Nvidia on inference speed, while Google pushes deeper into custom chips with Marvell.
Hyperscalers increasingly want chips designed around specific workloads rather than one processor doing everything.
Nvidia still has powerful software and networking advantages, but the AI chip market is becoming more specialised.

Nvidia has spent the artificial intelligence boom selling the industry's favourite all-purpose engine. Now, some of its biggest customers want engines built specifically for them, while smaller rivals are redesigning the engine altogether.

Two developments this week capture that shift. Cerebras unveiled new hardware on 18 August designed to make artificial intelligence (AI) inference dramatically faster. One day later, Google expanded its custom-chip relationship with Marvell Technology, potentially creating up to 120 billion USD of revenue for Marvell through fiscal 2033 if performance targets are reached.

Investors noticed. On 19 August, Marvell closed at 237.27 USD, up almost 10%. The bigger story, though, is not one day's share-price move. It is that Nvidia increasingly has to defend its position from two directions at once.

The GPU is becoming one lane, not the whole motorway

Nvidia's graphics processing units (GPUs) became the AI standard because they are powerful and flexible across many workloads. That matters especially for training advanced models, where requirements change quickly.

Inference is different. Once a model is trained, it repeatedly answers queries, making specialised chips potentially more efficient. Google has its tensor processing unit (TPU), Amazon has Trainium, while Meta is developing its Meta Training and Inference Accelerator (MTIA). These chips trade some flexibility for better performance, power efficiency or cost on specific tasks.

The market is therefore splitting. Nvidia offers programmable GPUs, hyperscalers such as Google and Amazon build custom processors, while specialists such as Cerebras rethink the architecture entirely. Marvell and Broadcom sit behind many custom designs, providing chip, networking and connectivity expertise.

Different jobs are getting different tools.

Cerebras attacks the architecture

Cerebras pushes specialisation much further.

Instead of linking many conventional chips, it builds processors roughly the size of a dinner plate. Its new CS-4 system uses three, keeping computing and memory closer together and reducing costly data movement.

Cerebras says the system uses 50% fewer components than its previous design and targets inference, where faster responses can improve both user experience and data-centre economics.

That does not make Cerebras an automatic Nvidia replacement. Nvidia still benefits from scale, software, reliability and a broad ecosystem. But Cerebras raises a more important question: does every AI workload need a GPU?

Google wants a chip made for the job

Google represents another form of pressure.

Hyperscalers operating enormous data centres increasingly have enough scale to design chips around their own workloads. Google's expanded Marvell agreement covers processors, storage and networking around its TPUs.

This looks more like supplier diversification than Broadcom being pushed aside. Broadcom separately agreed to develop future Google custom AI chips through 2031.

The lines between competitor and partner are also blurring. Marvell helps customers develop custom silicon while working with Nvidia, including through Nvidia's NVLink ecosystem.

Nvidia's defence may therefore be broader than protecting GPU market share. Even when customers use another processor, Nvidia can still try to remain part of the surrounding system.

Where the attack can stall

Specialised chips only make economic sense at sufficient scale. Designing them is expensive, manufacturing can be difficult, and software must work reliably. A benchmark advantage matters little if customers cannot deploy it easily.

Nvidia can also defend its position by improving inference performance while keeping customers inside its software, networking and development ecosystem. The early warning sign for investors is therefore not another impressive chip launch. It is whether workloads actually move.

The opposite risk also matters. AI computing demand could grow quickly enough for Nvidia, custom-chip designers and specialists to expand simultaneously. Market share can fall while revenue still rises if the market underneath it grows even faster.

Investor playbook

Watch deployment, not demonstrations. Custom chips matter more when hyperscalers put them into production across large, recurring workloads.
Separate training from inference. Nvidia may remain stronger in one part of AI even as alternatives gain ground elsewhere.
Track the surrounding infrastructure. Networking, memory and connectivity can gain importance as data centres mix several types of processors.
Treat custom-chip suppliers carefully. Large design wins create opportunity, but dependence on a handful of enormous customers also creates concentration risk.

A moat can narrow without disappearing

The important question is no longer whether somebody can build a faster AI chip than Nvidia. Somebody usually can, for a particular workload under particular conditions. The harder question is whether alternatives can match Nvidia's combination of performance, software, networking, supply and ease of deployment at scale.

That is why Cerebras and Google's Marvell deal matter together. One attacks the architecture. The other attacks the assumption that hyperscalers need to buy a standard processor in the first place. Neither means Nvidia's moat disappears. But AI computing is becoming more specialised, and that makes the moat more complicated to defend. The castle still looks formidable. There are simply more roads around it.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Artificial Intelligence Theme - Artificial intelligence NVIDIA Corporation

Market Quick Take - US Treasury Buyback Announcement Punishes USD - 20 August 2026

Thu, 20 Aug 2026 06:14:00 Z

Market drivers and catalysts

Macro: US Treasury yield curve in focus after US Treasury announces buyback announcement aimed at taming long-term yields.
Equities: US equities recovered as Treasury buybacks eased bond pressure, Europe stayed mixed, Asia rebounded sharply, led by Korean semiconductors.
Digital Assets: Bitcoin surges as short squeeze and White House crypto optimism collide
Commodities: Gold surges as yields and dollar tumble, while oil holds firm on Iran tensions
Fixed Income: US Treasury yield curve flattens after US Treasury buyback announcement. Japan’s long yields dropped even more sharply.
Currencies: The US dollar weakened sharply on the US Treasury buyback announcement, particularly against the Swiss franc.

Macro

The U.S. Treasury will at least double buybacks of 10- to 30-year debt after 30-year yields reached their highest since 2007, highlighting Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s increasingly interventionist approach to containing borrowing costs. The move, which pushed the 30-year yield around 9 bps lower to 5.19% ahead of a USD 16 billion 20-year auction, marks a notable departure from the traditional “regular and predictable” approach and may be viewed as an attempt to influence the yield curve and support market stability. The move hurt the USD, lifting gold and other hard assets.
July FOMC minutes showed most officials favored holding rates, though several wanted a hike and said more increases may be needed if inflation stays high. They noted tighter financial conditions, broad-based price gains, and an outlook of similar inflation but slightly weaker growth. Chair Warsh floated cutting to six meetings a year, with no change for 2026.
Trump said oil is still flowing through the Strait of Hormuz and signalled openness to talks with Tehran “at some point,” while simultaneously stepping up economic pressure on Iran seeking to isolate Iran economically after its military campaign failed to force a surrender. He threatened an “ECONOMIC D-DAY”, warning countries providing Iran with an economic lifeline of severe consequences, putting particular focus on China as the largest buyer of Iranian oil.
Australia’s August employment data showed a small 16.3k gain in full time employment, though July full time employment was revised up nearly 30k to 48.9k, while August part-time employment fell -32.2k (and July revised -16k lower). The overall Unemployment Rate rose 0.1% to 4.5% versus expectations for an unchanged 4.4% reading, despite a 0.1% drop in the participation rate.
More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0730 – Sweden Riksbank Rate Decision
1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
1230 – US Aug. Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook survey
2300 – Australia RBA’s Governor Bullock to speak
2330 – Japan Jul. National CPI
0030 – Japan Aug. Preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI
Fed speakers: Daly (1230) & Musalem (15:10)

Earnings events

Thursday: Walmart, Deere & Company, Ross Stores, Netease, Fortescue, Novonesis

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.2% and the Dow gained 0.2%, while the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2%, as expanded Treasury buybacks eased pressure on long-term yields and ended a three-session losing streak. Moderna rocketed 177% after its personalised cancer vaccine with Merck succeeded in a Phase 3 melanoma trial, lifting Merck 12.6%. Marvell gained almost 10% after securing a major custom artificial intelligence chip agreement with Google, while Target rose 4.3% after beating earnings expectations and raising its sales outlook. Attention now turned to Walmart earnings and whether lower yields could stabilise technology shares.
Europe: European equities remained mixed as high bond yields and inflation concerns continued to weigh on technology and financial shares. The Stoxx 600 slipped 0.1% for a sixth straight decline, while the DAX fell 0.1%, the FTSE 100 gained 0.1% and the CAC 40 edged higher. ASML fell 2.2% as semiconductor weakness persisted, while Rockwool dropped 5.0% after results failed to reassure investors despite an improved revenue outlook. AstraZeneca gained 2.1% as healthcare outperformed. Bond yields remained the main cross-market risk.
Asia: Asian equities rebounded sharply in Thursday’s session as easing US bond-market pressure encouraged investors back into technology shares. South Korea’s Kospi surged around 6%, Japan’s Nikkei gained 1.3%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.1% and Australia’s ASX 200 added 0.3%. SK Hynix jumped 14.1% after announcing a KRW 40 trillion share buyback and cancellation programme, while Samsung Electronics rallied 9.7% amid expectations for stronger shareholder returns and a broader memory-chip rebound. The move reversed much of Wednesday’s semiconductor-led selloff, although recent volatility remained unusually high. Investors now watched whether lower global yields could sustain the recovery.
More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Digital Assets

Bitcoin surged nearly 8% on Wednesday, according to Bloomberg triggering the biggest wave of short liquidations since records began in 2021, with more than USD 1 billion of shorts wiped out in about an hour. The rally coincided with President Trump meeting crypto executives at the White House, reinforcing optimism over a more industry-friendly regulatory environment. The move broadened across digital assets, with Ether jumping 16%, while Bitcoin broke above its 100- and 200-day moving averages and US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted USD 517 million of net inflows.

Commodities

Gold surged more than 4% to challenge the 200-day moving average at USD 4,511, its largest single-day gain in six months and its highest level since early June. The move was driven by the sharp fall in the dollar and long-end Treasury yields following the buyback announcement, with analysts noting the rally also reflects a growing market premium on US institutional and policy volatility.
Brent crude held above $91 per barrel into Thursday’s session, extending a four-day run of gains as President Trump announced sweeping new economic measures against Iran and the UAE cut trade and financial ties with Tehran. Meanwhile, there are signs that some crude from other Persian Gulf producers is being covertly ferried out through Hormuz despite threats to shipping. In the US, refineries are processing the most crude since 2019 while nationwide distillate stocks continue to tumble, hitting a 1996 seasonal low in EIA’s latest report.
Copper received a boost from the weaker dollar while the historic LME squeeze continued to ease, with the cash-to-three-month backwardation falling to around $248 per metric ton from a peak of $545 earlier in the week, after Trafigura and other traders made significant metal deliveries to the exchange, thereby easing a squeeze on supplies after being drained by a surge in shipments to the US ahead of a potential tariff announcement. HG Copper traded near USD 6.50 after finding support around the 50-day moving average at USD 6.39.
More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

The US Treasury’s announcement Wednesday of increased buybacks of long-dated treasuries flattened the US treasury yield curve sharply. The USD 4 billion size of the buybacks is vanishingly small relative to the size of the US treasury market but is a loud symbolic signal that the Treasury does not want higher yields. Shaping the yield curve and buying treasuries is normally a policy area for the Fed, so it sets up an interesting tension with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who will speak at next Week’s Fed symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. In any case, the benchmark 30-year treasury yield, fell some nine basis points after the announcement to trade below 4.20% and near two-week lows. The benchmark 10-year yield was only a few basis points lower in the wake of the announcement at 4.64%, within the trading range of the last week.
Japan’s government yield fell sharply at the long end of the yield curve, likely in part due to the fall in long US treasury yields on the buyback announcement that suggests the US treasury will not tolerate higher yields. The benchmark 30-year JGB yield fell 13 basis points Thursday, more than its US counterpart did in Wednesday’s session, trading just below 4.0%. The 10-year JGB yield fell some eight basis points to 2.84%, taking it further away from the multi-decade high of 2.96% of just two days prior.

Currencies

The US dollar fell sharply in the wake of the US Treasury’s announcement of a doubling of its long-term treasury buyback operations as the move suggest the treasury won’t tolerate higher yields, setting up interesting questions about the independence of the Fed as well. USDJPY was already offered ahead of the announcement and trading near 159.00 after the recent highs just below 160.00 and fell further to nearly 158.00 before bouncing sharply in early Thursday trading hours to above 158.70. Japan reports its July National CPI data on Friday. EURUSD rose as high as 1.1684 after trading near 1.1600 at the time of the US Treasury announcement. This was its highest level since late May.
The Swiss franc was particularly reactive to the US Treasury announcement of increased buybacks as it goes against the recent popularity of CHF-funded carry trades based on Switzerland’s low yields. EURCHF fell sharply Wednesday from near 1-year highs around 0.9400 to as low as 0.9310 before rebounding and the bottom fell out of USDCHF, which plunged from near 0.8100 to as low as 0.7970 late Wednesday before rebounding toward 0.8000 by early Thursday in Europe.
More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis

Saxo Bank

The robot boom is bigger than humanoids: mapping the companies behind it

Wed, 19 Aug 2026 12:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Humanoids are the headline, but robotics already spans factories, warehouses, vision systems, motion control and artificial intelligence.
Nvidia, Cognex, Fanuc and specialist component makers provide very different ways to gain exposure to the same theme.
The key question is not only which robot wins, but which parts of the value chain remain scarce and valuable.

Robots can already dance. Investors appear equally capable of getting excited about it.

China's Unitree surged nearly sixfold on its Shanghai debut on 19 August, briefly valuing the humanoid robot maker at around 50 billion USD. The listing coincides with Beijing's World Robot Conference, where hundreds of companies are displaying everything from industrial machines to humanoid robots.

Unitree makes a useful hook, but it is not the whole investment story. Humanoids remain early, and relatively few perform productive commercial work today. The broader opportunity is what happens when artificial intelligence gives existing robots better brains, eyes and decision-making abilities.

For investors, that means looking underneath the robot's skin.

Humanoids are the billboard, not the industry

Factories installed more than 540,000 industrial robots globally in 2024, more than twice the number a decade earlier, according to the International Federation of Robotics. Manufacturing already uses automated arms extensively for welding, assembly, painting and moving materials.

The important change now is intelligence.

Traditional industrial robots are excellent at repeating precisely programmed movements. They struggle when an object moves, changes shape or something unexpected enters their workspace.

Artificial intelligence can make that environment less rigid. Machine vision helps robots see. New models help them interpret instructions. Simulation lets them practise tasks virtually before entering a real factory.

Nvidia says Fanuc, ABB Robotics, Yaskawa and Kuka, which together have more than two million installed robots, are integrating its simulation technology and artificial intelligence computing.

That suggests robotics may evolve more like semiconductors than smartphones. The final product gets the attention, but considerable value can sit with companies supplying essential components.

Build the robot, layer by layer

The easiest way to understand the opportunity is to imagine building an intelligent robot from scratch.

The brain: Nvidia

Robots need computing power to process cameras, understand their surroundings and decide what to do next. Nvidia is trying to become a common computing and software platform for robotics.

Its Jetson processors run artificial intelligence directly on machines, while Isaac provides tools for training and simulation. Its GR00T platform targets humanoid development.

Importantly, Nvidia does not need to predict whether Tesla, Unitree, Figure or another manufacturer wins. Its opportunity is supplying the intelligence layer across many platforms.

The eyes: Cognex and Keyence

A robot cannot adapt if it cannot see what changed.

Cognex specialises in machine vision. Its cameras, sensors and software identify objects, inspect products and guide robotic movements. Keyence offers similar systems, including three-dimensional vision that helps robots understand an object's position, shape and orientation.

As robots move from fixed tasks towards less predictable environments, better perception becomes increasingly important.

The muscles and joints: Harmonic Drive and Nabtesco

Making a robot think is only half the problem. It must also move accurately.

Motors, gears, bearings and actuators convert electrical instructions into movement. McKinsey identifies actuators as the largest hardware cost and one of the main performance bottlenecks for humanoids.

Japan's Harmonic Drive Systems produces precision gearing used in humanoid arms and legs. Nabtesco supplies reduction gears that allow industrial robots to move accurately under heavy loads.

If humanoid production scales, these less glamorous components could become strategically important. A robot with a brilliant brain but unreliable knees still has a problem.

The robot builders: Fanuc, Yaskawa, Teradyne and Tesla

Fanuc and Yaskawa bring decades of experience building industrial robots, controllers and motion systems. They also already have factory customers and experience keeping machines running reliably.

Teradyne offers another angle through Universal Robots, which makes collaborative robot arms, and Mobile Industrial Robots, which builds autonomous machines for moving goods through factories and warehouses.

Tesla sits further towards the speculative end. Optimus aims to become a general-purpose humanoid. Its challenge is turning artificial intelligence, vision and manufacturing expertise into dependable machines produced cheaply at scale.

ABB also belongs on the map, with one caveat. It agreed to sell its robotics division to SoftBank for 5.375 billion USD, shifting direct robotics exposure away from ABB if the transaction completes.

The warehouse: Kion and Symbotic

Robotics does not need legs to create economic value.

Kion combines warehouse equipment, automation and robotics and is working with Nvidia on artificial intelligence-powered autonomous industrial trucks. Symbotic automates the storage and movement of goods inside large warehouses.

These businesses offer a useful reality check. The first large-scale financial returns from smarter robots may emerge in controlled factories and warehouses long before humanoids start folding laundry at home.

Source: Saxo Bank analysis, based on company materials, McKinsey and the International Federation of Robotics.

Where the map can go wrong

The biggest risk is confusing exposure with materiality. Robotics may matter strategically to Nvidia or Tesla without becoming a major earnings driver anytime soon. Smaller specialists offer purer exposure, but usually bring greater customer, technology and valuation risks.

Vertical integration is another uncertainty. Robot manufacturers may bring critical components in-house, reducing the opportunity for suppliers.

Finally, technical progress does not guarantee attractive economics. Falling robot prices encourage adoption but can also squeeze margins. Higher volumes eventually need to translate into sustainable profits.

Investor playbook

Think in layers. Separate artificial intelligence, vision, motion, robot manufacturing and integration.
Watch bottlenecks. Hard-to-replace components may capture more value than easily substituted hardware.
Measure commercial adoption. Repeat orders, operating hours and customer savings matter more than demonstrations.
Check financial materiality. Robotics exposure matters more when it can meaningfully affect earnings.

The clever robot may not capture the cleverest economics

Unitree's debut captures today's excitement, but the more useful long-term investment question sits beneath the headline.

A functioning robot combines computing, vision, precision motion and decades of manufacturing knowledge. That makes robotics less a race to identify the next Tesla and more a developing ecosystem.

Nvidia may provide the brain. Cognex and Keyence help provide the eyes. Harmonic Drive and Nabtesco move the joints. Fanuc, Yaskawa, Teradyne and others put machines to work.

The robot may grab the headlines. The real value may sit in the parts that make it work.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles NVidia Corp. Theme - Robotics and automation

Beginning of a larger bearish correction here?

Wed, 19 Aug 2026 09:14:00 Z

Yields, leverage and bubbly sentiment among concerns.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.

Questions and comments, please!

We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.

This content is marketing material and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.

The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

Asia Market Quick Take – 19 August, 2026

Wed, 19 Aug 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 19 August, 2026

Key points:

Macro: US-Iran tensions continue; SoH traffic remains limited
Equities: Equities risk off; SOXX slumps 5%
FX: USD strengthens amid risk off and higher long dated yields
Commodities: Precious metals and copper sell off
Fixed income: Treasury yields lower but remain elevated

------------------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

US–Iran tensions remain high, keeping supply risks elevated and the Strait of Hormuz constrained. Trump says there are no talks with Tehran and confirms the US naval blockade. Despite claims the waterway is open, traffic remains limited. Iranian forces have escalated hostilities, with eight vessel attacks reported this month, including on UAE- and Saudi-linked ships.
Japan’s core machinery orders rose 9.7% m/m in June 2026 to JPY 1.06 trillion, beating forecasts and reversing May’s 12.4% drop. It was the fastest gain since February, with broad strength across manufacturers and non-manufacturers. Orders jumped 16.9% y/y, versus a 1.9% fall in May, well above expectations.
US housing starts fell 12.4% in July 2026 to an annualized 1.239 million units, well below expectations of 1.35 million and near a six-year low. Multi-family starts dropped 15.6% and single-family 9.9%. Regionally, starts fell in the Midwest, South, and West, but rose in the Northeast.
US manufacturing output rose 0.2% in July 2026, matching expectations. Durable goods production climbed 0.7%, while nondurable output fell 0.4%. Capacity utilization edged up to 76%, still 2.2 points below its long-run average.
US import prices fell 0.4% m/m in July 2026, the biggest drop since May 2025 and defying expectations for a 0.1% rise. Fuel import prices slumped 7.2% on lower petroleum costs, while nonfuel import prices rose 0.4%. Import prices were up 5.9% from a year earlier.
The UK jobless rate was unchanged at 4.9% in the three months to June 2026, versus expectations for 4.8%. Unemployment fell by 36,000 on the quarter but rose by 88,000 over the year, while employment increased by 84,000 to 34.47 million.

Equities:

US — US equities retreated on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 falling 0.69% to 7,691.76 and the Nasdaq Composite declining 1.33% to 26,289.71, while the Dow Jones shed 0.22% to 53,343.40. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index slumped 5%, leading losses as chip and AI hardware stocks were pummelled amid elevated Treasury yields and inflation concerns. Notable decliners included Micron, Credo, and SanDisk. NRG Energy fell 5.57%. After hours, Nasdaq futures extended losses, pulled lower by the Kospi selloff in Asia, raising the risk of a sharper open.
EU — European equities were under pressure on Tuesday as elevated bond yields and global inflation concerns weighed on sentiment. The global bond rout was a key driver, with French borrowing costs hitting their highest since 2008 and German 30-year yields at 2011 levels following a €4bn August 2056 syndicated bond sale. UK gilt yields approached 6%. Defensive names offered some relative shelter, but the broader market struggled against the backdrop of rising sovereign yields and persistent oil price strength.
Asia — Asian equities are sharply lower on Wednesday morning, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index falling over 1% to 273.09. South Korea's Kospi is the standout underperformer, plunging approximately 6% to around 6,454, dragged down by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, each falling around 7%, following the overnight US semiconductor rout. The Kosdaq slipped more than 3%. Japan's Topix fell 2.1% to 4,054.19, with the Nikkei also under pressure. Nasdaq futures are being pulled into the Kospi's downward spiral, slicing through Tuesday's intraday lows. Hong Kong and China markets are opening weaker, tracking global chip weakness. Separately, Japanese companies posted their largest earnings beat in five years, with 71% of firms exceeding forecasts and aggregate net income at the 500 biggest companies topping ¥21 trillion. Xiaomi saw strong EV growth but lower profits due to high chip costs, while Baidu's profits plunged 68% as AI cloud gains couldn't offset a steep drop in traditional ad revenue.

Earnings this week:

Wednesday - Lowe’s, Target, TJX, Estee Lauder, Analog Devices, HKEX, Kuaishou Technology
Thursday - Walmart, Deere & Co., Ross Stores, Alibaba, Ping An Insurance, Pop Mart
Friday - BJ’s Wholesale Club

FX:

USD is stabilizing, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index at 99.61 after earlier hitting mid‑May lows, as a bear‑steepening US yield curve blunts traditional rate support.
USDJPY is at 159.46 and edging toward the key 160 level, with elevated US yields, high oil and Middle East risk supporting the pair, though reduced speculative shorts leave it vulnerable to a sharp squeeze on a break.
EURUSD is at 1.1581, with 1‑month risk reversals turning euro‑bullish for the first time since March as markets price an ECB hike versus a Fed on hold in September.
GBPUSD trades at 1.3540, holding up in G10 but increasingly exposed to UK gilt yields near 6% amid the global bond selloff.
AUDUSD is at 0.7084 after underperforming on Tuesday (-0.32%) as weaker metals and risk‑off sentiment hit the commodity bloc, with Q2 wages and RBA signals in focus; NZDUSD at 0.5873 is supported by recommendations to buy the kiwi as an El Niño hedge.
KRW, strong on earlier equity inflows, is likely to weaken after a sharp Kospi drop (~6%) on chip losses.

Commodities:

Oil settled around $85/bbl, near three-week highs, as US-Iran talks over the Strait of Hormuz remain deadlocked. Elevated oil prices are a key driver of global inflation concerns and are contributing to the ongoing bond market selloff.
Copper saw a historic LME squeeze partially ease on Tuesday after Trafigura and other traders made significant deliveries of metal to the exchange. The cash-to-three-month backwardation narrowed to $248/ton from as wide as $545/ton on Monday, though spreads remain historically extreme. Copper is up approximately 16% year-to-date, with BHP reporting a 30% rise in underlying attributable profit to $13.2bn for the year ended June 30, driven by record copper prices.
Gold declined as much as 1.8% to around $4,338/oz on Tuesday as the global bond selloff sent yields higher and buoyed the dollar, creating twin headwinds for the precious metal. Despite the pullback, the GLD ETF recorded its largest single-day inflow since 18 June, with $1.01bn added, reflecting continued institutional demand for gold as a hedge.

Fixed income:

US 30-Year Treasury yields hit 5.31–5.32%, the highest level since June 2007, driven by investor angst over surging government spending, a flood of long-dated bond supply, and inflation that has remained above the Fed's target for five years. The US Treasury disbursed a record $85bn in semi-annual coupon payments to bondholders on 17 August.
Global sovereign yields are surging in tandem, with French 30-year borrowing costs at their highest since 2008, German 30-year yields at 2011 levels, and UK gilt yields approaching 6%. Japan's 10-year yields climbed to multi-decade highs. The global rout is being attributed to a combination of AI-driven corporate bond supply crowding out government debt, persistent inflation, and growing fiscal deficit concerns across developed markets.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

Luxury stocks are on sale. But is anything actually cheap?

Tue, 18 Aug 2026 09:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

China is not disappearing as a luxury market, but consumers are becoming more selective about where they spend.
Years of price increases have tested the limits of what aspirational customers are willing to pay.
Falling shares improve valuations, but Hermès, LVMH, Kering and Richemont offer very different investment cases.

European luxury shares have come under pressure, reflecting weaker growth, more cautious consumers and high expectations built up over previous years. Lower share prices do not automatically create opportunities, but they are making the investment question more interesting.

China is spending, just not like before

For years, the luxury formula looked straightforward. Rising Chinese wealth created millions of new aspirational consumers, who wanted their first Louis Vuitton bag, Gucci belt or luxury watch.

That engine has not disappeared. It has changed gears.

China's personal luxury market shrank between 3% and 5% in 2025, according to Bain, after a much steeper decline in 2024. Bain expects modest growth this year, but the recovery remains uneven.

More importantly, Chinese shoppers are becoming selective. Recent research found 37% of affluent consumers planned to increase spending on prestige beauty, compared with just 4% for leather goods. L'Oréal says premium beauty is growing strongly in China, while LVMH described Chinese spending in the first half as broadly flat.

The logic is simple. A premium moisturiser can feel like an affordable indulgence. A handbag costing several thousand euros is easier to postpone.

Yet there are important exceptions. Richemont, owner of Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels, reported 24% growth in jewellery sales last quarter and double-digit growth in Greater China. Jewellery can offer something handbags increasingly struggle to provide: perceived lasting value alongside status.

Moncler and Brunello Cucinelli also continue to report solid Asian growth. China is therefore not simply "weak". Brand, category and customer matter more than ever.

Pricing power has met a price ceiling

Luxury companies spent years proving they could raise prices without losing customers. Eventually, they decided to test that proposition rather enthusiastically.

Bain estimates the global luxury customer base fell from around 400 million people in 2022 to roughly 340 million in 2025. It argues that repeated price increases pushed many aspirational customers away while also frustrating some wealthier buyers.

This matters because pricing power is valuable only when customers remain willing to pay.

Hermès sits at one extreme. Scarce production, waiting lists and exceptionally wealthy customers protect demand. First-half sales still grew 6% at constant currencies, while its recurring operating margin remained an extraordinary 41%.

LVMH faces a broader challenge. It owns around 70 brands, including Louis Vuitton, Dior, Tiffany and Bulgari. That diversification offers protection, but its crucial fashion and leather goods division is recovering only gradually. First-half organic group sales rose 2%, while management continues to see only limited improvement in Chinese spending.

Kering faces the hardest version of this test. Gucci remains central to profits and its recovery. Second-quarter Gucci sales fell 2% on a comparable basis, much better than earlier quarters, but mainland China remained challenging. The good news is that momentum is improving. The less comfortable news is that a turnaround still needs to become sustained growth.

Four stocks, four different labels

This is where lower share prices become useful rather than automatically attractive.

Hermès offers the strongest economics but also the highest expectations. Even after its decline, the shares trade at roughly the mid-30s times trailing earnings. Investors are still paying substantially more for each euro of profit than at LVMH.

LVMH offers diversification at a more subdued valuation. Its shares trade at roughly 20 times trailing earnings. The investment case depends less on perfection and more on whether Louis Vuitton, Dior and other major brands can restore healthier growth.

Kering is a turnaround. Current earnings are depressed enough that simple price-to-earnings comparisons are less useful. The key question is whether Gucci can rebuild desirability while Kering improves margins and keeps debt under control.

Richemont offers a different exposure. Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels put it closer to resilient branded jewellery than fashion-led luxury. That has supported stronger growth, but also means investors already recognise much of that quality.

What could keep the markdown going?

The first risk is that China's recovery remains weak or shifts permanently away from traditional European brands. Watch Chinese sales trends, particularly for leather goods.

The second is creative execution. Luxury products are unusual assets because yesterday's bestseller can become tomorrow's unsold inventory. New collections at Gucci, Dior and other major houses need to translate attention into purchases.

Finally, weaker currencies, tourism flows and economic confidence can squeeze sales and margins even when the underlying brand remains healthy.

Investor playbook

Separate share-price weakness from business weakness. Falling prices help only if long-term earning power remains intact.
Track customer mix. Brands serving ultra-wealthy buyers may behave differently from those relying heavily on aspirational consumers.
Compare valuation with expectations. A wonderful company can disappoint if its share price already assumes wonderful results.
Watch evidence, not recovery stories. China sales, margins, new-product demand and cash generation provide better signals than hopeful headlines.

The label matters more than the discount

Luxury investing used to look easy because several powerful forces moved together: Chinese wealth expanded, aspirational shoppers joined the market and brands repeatedly raised prices. Those forces now pull in different directions.

That makes the sector harder, but also more interesting for investors. Hermès still demonstrates what exceptional scarcity can achieve. LVMH offers breadth and a lower starting valuation. Richemont shows the resilience of jewellery. Kering offers greater recovery potential, but also greater execution risk.

The useful lesson extends beyond handbags and watches. A great company is not automatically a great investment at every price, just as a falling share price does not automatically create a bargain. When the entire luxury shelf gets marked down, investors still need to read the labels.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Theme - Luxury Luxury Goods

From groceries to lipstick: seven companies test the consumer

Mon, 17 Aug 2026 11:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Walmart, Target and TJX can show whether shoppers are cutting back or simply becoming more selective.
Home Depot and Klarna test appetite for larger purchases when confidence and borrowing costs still matter.
Carlsberg and Estée Lauder show whether small indulgences remain resilient across different markets.

US retail sales fell 0.6% in July, while consumer sentiment weakened again in early August. That sounds gloomy, but economy-wide data hides an important distinction. Households rarely stop spending everywhere at once. They change what they buy, where they buy it and how they pay.

This week offers an unusually broad test. Home Depot and Klarna report on 18 August. Target, TJX, Carlsberg and Estée Lauder follow on 19 August, with Walmart on 20 August. Together, they cover everything from groceries and discounted clothing to renovations, credit, beer and beauty.

The basket matters more than the bill

Walmart, Target and TJX provide the cleanest comparison. Walmart is heavily exposed to groceries and essentials. Target sells more discretionary goods such as clothing and homewares. TJX specialises in off-price retail, selling branded products at discounts.

Strong Walmart and TJX results alongside softer Target sales would suggest consumers are still spending, but leaning harder towards value. If Target also improves, the signal becomes broader: households may be comfortable enough to move beyond necessities again.

For investors, the useful clues are traffic, product mix, promotions and guidance rather than one headline sales figure. Strong sales bought with heavy discounting tell a different story from customers arriving willingly and paying close to full price.

Big purchases need confidence

Home Depot tests a more expensive part of the wallet. Home repairs cannot always wait, but kitchens, bathrooms and other large renovation projects often can. Its previous quarter showed only modest underlying sales growth, so larger projects remain the more revealing signal.

Klarna adds the financing angle. The digital bank lets shoppers spread payments over time. It entered this quarter with rapid growth and relatively stable credit losses. Rising payment volumes with steady repayment behaviour would suggest healthy usage. Faster borrowing paired with worsening credit performance would be much less comforting.

Small luxuries can travel further

Carlsberg and Estée Lauder broaden the test beyond US retail. Carlsberg’s first quarter showed growth in premium beer, alcohol-free drinks and soft drinks. Estée Lauder has been recovering in prestige beauty, including better momentum in mainland China.

They test a familiar habit: people may postpone a sofa before abandoning every small pleasure. If premium drinks and beauty hold up while larger purchases soften, the consumer is not disappearing. The consumer is prioritising.

Risks: one week is not an economy

Weather, promotions, calendar shifts and company execution can distort one quarter. July’s weak US retail-sales report was also affected by Amazon moving Prime Day into June. The better approach is to look for patterns across companies, especially whether value-seeking, delayed big purchases and stable credit quality appear together.

The consumer is not one person

This week matters because it turns a vague debate about “the consumer” into something more useful. Walmart can test essentials, TJX the hunt for value, Target discretionary recovery and Home Depot bigger commitments. Klarna shows how much spending needs financing, while Carlsberg and Estée Lauder reveal whether small indulgences still travel.

The message will probably be more nuanced than strong or weak. Households can feel cautious and still spend when something feels necessary, affordable or worth it. That is the receipt investors should read. The total matters, but what sits inside the basket tells the better story.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead

Market Quick Take – Copper nears a record as soft US spending and Middle East flare-ups open the week – 17 August 2026

Mon, 17 Aug 2026 06:00:00 Z

Market drivers and catalysts

Macro: US spending and sentiment both undershot, softening the growth picture into a quiet data week
Equities: US and Europe slipped Friday, Asia was mixed Monday, with Hong Kong stronger and South Korea closed.
Volatility: Near-term protection sank to multi-month lows while longer-dated volatility declined to follow
Digital Assets: Majors steadied over the weekend after an index-inclusion threat knocked the treasury proxies
Commodities: Copper pressed record territory on supply strain while crude kept its geopolitical bid
Fixed Income: Yields eased across the curve on soft producer prices and an orderly bond auction
Currencies: Extremely rangebound market in G3 majors as markets look around for a catalyst.

Macro

The US consumer softened on two separate readings. July retail sales fell 0.6% on the month against consensus for a 0.1% rise, the first decline since October 2025, and the core control group used for GDP fell 0.4%, its largest drop since early 2025. The preliminary University of Michigan sentiment index fell to 51 in early August from 55.2, below expectations, with broad-based declines and year-ahead inflation expectations a touch higher at 4.3%.
The US-Iran ceasefire expires today, following an Israeli strike in southern Lebanon and with fresh US sanctions on Iran expected. Speaking at a rally on Friday, President Trump called Iran "very evil" and told Americans to expect sustained high fuel prices, arguing the cost of the conflict was justified to keep Iran from a nuclear weapon.
Japan's Q2 GDP grew 0.3% quarter on quarter, slowing from the first quarter and missing the 0.5% consensus, against a long-run average of 0.42% since 1980. In China, July M2 money supply growth came in at 7.7% year on year against 7.9% expected.
The week is data-light until Friday. The FOMC minutes land on Wednesday alongside a USD 16 billion 20-year auction, and global flash PMIs arrive on Friday with Japanese national CPI. Those minutes are the main lead-in to Fed Chair Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote on 27 to 29 August. July's FOMC left rates at 3.50% to 3.75% with three dissents in favour of a hike.
More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0700 – China July Retail Sales, Home Prices, Industrial Production & Fixed Assets Investments
1230 – US August Empire Manufacturing

Earnings events

Friday: Aviva, ASICS

Earnings highlights for next week:

Tuesday: Home Depot, BHP Group, Keysight Technologies, Coloplast, Klarna, Carlsberg
Wednesday: Analog Devices, TJX Companies, Lowe’s Companies, Target, Estee Lauder, Geberit, Carlsberg
Thursday: Walmart, Deere & Co, AIA Group, Ross Stores, Netease, Fortescue, Novonesis

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 slipped 0.2% to 7,785.76 on Friday, the Dow fell 0.2% to 53,732.41 and the Nasdaq 100 eased 0.1% to 30,046.14 as weak retail sales and softer consumer sentiment raised growth concerns, while higher oil added inflation pressure. Applied Materials dropped 5.1% despite an upbeat outlook, while Reddit jumped 12.6% after being selected to join the S&P 500 and Chevron gained 1.2% alongside oil. Nvidia edged 0.1% lower; separately, its filing disclosed stakes worth about $21 billion in SpaceX and $30 billion in Intel.
Europe: The Stoxx 600 fell 0.2% on Friday and the FTSE 100 lost 0.2%, while Germany’s DAX gained 0.5%, as higher oil prices and renewed geopolitical tensions offset support from a strong earnings season. Rheinmetall rose 3.2% as defence stocks strengthened, while SAP gained 2.7% and Nemetschek jumped 8.4% after reports of Silver Lake’s interest in Workday revived interest in European software. Aviva added 1.8% after first-half operating profit beat expectations, supported by Direct Line and wealth-management growth.
Asia: Asian equities were mixed on Monday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up around 0.3% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gaining about 1.5%, while Singapore’s STI traded lower. South Korea’s market was closed for the observed Liberation Day holiday. Japan remained supported by artificial-intelligence demand despite softer-than-expected domestic growth, while MS&AD Insurance advanced after quarterly net income rose 33.4% year on year to ¥328.6 billion. Hong Kong rebounded after four consecutive declines, while investors continued to watch elevated oil prices and the unresolved Strait of Hormuz disruption as the main regional macro risk.
More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

Soft US retail sales and sentiment closed the week without disturbing the vol floor. VIX ended Friday at 14.25, its lowest since 29 December, with VIX1D at 9.18 and VIX9D at 10.61.
The curve is unusually steep, 14.25 cash against 18.46 at three months and 22.75 at one year, with the front future at 17.95 in overnight trade. SKEW rose to 138.36 as VVIX eased, and oil vol at 49.52 remains about 3.5 times equity vol. SPX options imply 0.94% into Friday; today's expiry was not yet quoting at the snapshot.
For a more detailed view on volatility, check our Options Briefs in the Options Insights

Digital Assets

Majors firmed over the weekend after bitcoin slipped below 63,000 on Friday, and DVOL eased to 34.86. The listed proxies wore Friday's move: Strategy fell 4.18%, Circle 5.01% and Coinbase 3.53%, while miners split, Cipher up 7.43% against Iren down 1.56%.
MSCI has proposed screening non-operating companies out of its global indices, a change its own testing showed would exclude Strategy and Metaplanet. Feedback closes 30 September, with final methodology due 16 October and the index review on 11 November. Strategy publicly rejected the proposal on Friday.

Commodities

Oil: Crude trades steady, holding onto its geopolitical bid, with Brent near the top of its recent range near USD 89 as fresh fighting in Lebanon and attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz cloud the outlook for a deal to end the US-Iran war. Meanwhile, and despite the attacks, Middle Eastern producers continue to shuttle large volumes of crude out of the Persian Gulf, with daily flows reportedly running above market estimates of around 4 million barrels, helping to keep prices in check.
Industrial metals: Copper rose towards a record in London, trading up 1.45% at USD 14,365 per ton in early trading. A combination of major producers struggling to meet production targets and intense competition for supply between the US and China has driven the premium for spot delivery in London over three-month metal to nearly USD 500 per ton, highlighting acute nearby tightness. HG copper in New York trades back above USD 6.70 after last week's correction towards USD 6.50 was met with fresh buying.
Precious metals: Gold holds near USD 4,400 after a week of weak US economic data and a softer dollar provided support, despite long-end bond yields trading near cycle highs, not least the 10-year real yield. The resilience highlights a market where demand from less interest-rate-sensitive investors has returned amid mounting fiscal and debt concerns. The dynamic is reminiscent of 2022–23, when gold held its ground amid strong central-bank buying despite aggressive rate hikes and rising bond yields. For now, bullion remains stuck in a wide USD 4,200 to USD 4,505 range, with the upper level representing the important 200-day moving average.
The latest COT report covering the week to 11 August showed hedge funds extending their commodity futures buying spree into a fifth week, lifting the combined net long across 24 major futures by 173% in less than two months. Energy led the buying amid renewed Middle East concerns, while gold length reached an 11-month high and copper a 5½-year high. In agriculture, massive sugar short covering flipped the position to a net long for the first time in 14 months, while cotton length reached a 28-month high.
More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

US Treasuries yields rallied Thursday after the soft PPI data (see above) and slight rise in the weekly initial jobless claims. The front-end of the US treasury yield curve came in sharply lower, down about five basis points and eyeing the lows for the last four weeks near 4.15%. At the longer end of the curve, the 10-year yield also fell about five basis points to 4.65%, but still traded within the recent range. A 30-year T-bond auction saw steady demand with yields near 20-year highs.
European government bonds rallied in sympathy with US treasury counterparts Thursday, with the strongest move lower in yields in the five-year BOBL in Germany, where the benchmark fell more than five basis points at one point intraday to below 2.85% before rebounding back toward 2.87%. The benchmark 10-year German Bund yield also dropped back, trading 3.13% late Thursday after shying away from the 3.20%+ yield area earlier this week for the third time in recent weeks and for a fourth time since mid-May.

Currencies

Currency volatility in the major is extremely constrained as traders lack conviction. This could be a tactical reluctance to send USDJPY toward 160.00 in fear of official intervention from Japan, or as the market awaits more conviction on the direction of Fed policy or rates volatility on incoming macro data. In any case, EURUSD is lost in one of its tightest two-week ranges in a long time between 1.1500 and 1.1580.
EURCHF pulled to a new cycle high above 0.9390 Thursday, another new high for 2026 highs, with 16-month highs just north of 0.9450 the next major chart point above 0.9400.
More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis

Saxo Bank

The FX Trader: Long US yields keep the dollar and carry trades alive.

Thu, 13 Aug 2026 07:35:00 Z

USD edges higher after in-line CPI

The latest

US CPI fails to knock down long-end yields – or the US dollar. Yesterday’s July US CPI report landed almost precisely on expectations, with headline CPI rising 0.1% month-on-month and core CPI up 0.2%. The kneejerk reaction was straightforward enough: Treasury yields fell across the curve and the US dollar weakened. But the more interesting development came later, as only the front end of the Treasury curve retained much of the move. The result was a bull steepening of the US yield curve, with longer-dated yields giving back much of their initial decline.

That distinction matters for the US dollar. A modest repricing of the next Fed move can pull the two-year yield lower, but the dollar may prove considerably harder to dislodge if the US 10-year and especially the 30-year remain near their cycle highs. The 10-year yield is back near 4.70% this morning. Longer-term US yields are increasingly about more than the precise timing of the next Fed move, with fiscal concerns, inflation risk and the sheer supply of US government debt all part of the equation. For FX traders, the simple point is that a softer Fed path at the front end does not necessarily translate into a softer US dollar if the rest of the curve refuses to rally.

The yen still can't find its feet. USDJPY remains above 159 – likely in part due to still-elevated long US treasury yields. Bloomberg reported overnight, citing unnamed sources, that Prime Minister Takaichi is comfortable with a near-term Bank of Japan rate hike. Short-dated Japanese yields and then yen barely managed to even react to this.

Japanese wholesale inflation this morning could also prompt Bank of Japan to move sooner, as July producer prices rose 7.2% year-on-year. Markets have increasingly brought forward expectations for the next Bank of Japan hike toward September. Still, the JPY reaction has been modest. If intervention, speculation that Takaichi has become more tolerant of a hike and very elevated producer-price inflation are collectively unable to generate a durable JPY rally, the market is telling us how powerful the carry headwind remains while US long-term yields stay this high. But the Ministry of Finance can unleash another round of JPY intervention at any time, possibly if USDJPY nears or exceeds 160.00 again.

A broader carry trade overlay? Yesterday's price action suggested that the story extends beyond JPY. EURCHF pushed to a new 2026 high above 0.9380, continuing the pressure on the zero-yielding Swiss franc. EURSEK meanwhile burst back above 11.00 and traded toward the 11.05 area, while NOKSEK flows may be playing a part in SEK weakness, as that pair pushed back through parity and as high as around 1.0100. That looks at least partly like a carry-trade signal: provided markets remain relatively calm, investors continue to have an incentive to fund in the lowest yielding currencies.

Bottom line(s): If long-dated US yields remain near their cycle highs – or break above them – the dollar may remain firm even if the market continues to trim expectations for Fed tightening at the front end. A 30-year T-bond auction is up later today. Something needs to change in the carry trade and risk sentiment dynamic for JPY to catch a bid (and reverse the other seeming carry-focused action of late in CHF and SEK).

Chart focus: EURSEK

EURSEK is worth putting back on the radar after its sudden push above 11.00 and toward 11.05. Sweden's policy rate remains at just 1.75%, where the Riksbank left it in June while explicitly acknowledging some probability that rates would have to rise later this year.

That makes next week's meeting unusually interesting even if no policy move is expected immediately. The Riksbank makes its decision on Wednesday, August 19 and publishes it on Thursday, August 20. The September decision then comes on September 24 and, unlike next week's meeting, includes a new full Monetary Policy Report and rate path. Market pricing has been assigning something close to even odds to a hike by that September meeting.

The question for EURSEK is whether the Riksbank is prepared to push back against the latest krona weakness. SEK had enjoyed a substantial re-rating earlier in the year, helped by a better European growth narrative and the prospect that the Riksbank's easing cycle was finished. But at 1.75%, Swedish rates offer little carry protection if the market begins to favour funding currencies again.

A sustained EURSEK break higher from here would bring the upper end of the broader 2026 range back into play. Conversely, any hawkish pushback from the Riksbank next week – particularly explicit guidance that the September meeting is live – could quickly make the latest move above 11.00 look like a false break.

Source: Saxo

Ahead: can the US long bond behave?
The immediate calendar is relatively thin, leaving geopolitical headlines around the Strait of Hormuz as the largest unpredictable source of volatility. Oil remains capable of making a chunky move in either direction on any indication that passage through the strait is normalising – or becoming still more disrupted. Brent remains close to $90 per barrel.

For the US dollar, again, today's 30-year Treasury auction may be more interesting than usual given where long-end yields are trading. The Treasury is scheduled to auction the long bond at 1700 GMT time today. Strong demand could finally provide some relief at the long end, while an ugly auction that sends the 30-year yield toward fresh cycle highs could provide another leg of support for the dollar – and perhaps another reason for USDJPY to pressure the authorities' pain threshold around 160.
Norges Bank today: nothing expected, but watch the guidance and policy forecasts as September is seen at better than even odds for a rate hike.

Tomorrow brings July US Retail Sales. Beyond that, the next obvious set-piece event for the US dollar is the August 27-29 Jackson Hole symposium, where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will have an opportunity to reset the Fed's communications after his performance at the latest FOMC meeting was widely panned.

FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.
Note: If unfamiliar with the FX board, please see a video tutorial for understanding and using the FX Board.

The big positive JPY impulse from the intervention has continued to fade, but the key USDJPY is back near the key 160 psychological level. Elsewhere, CHF weakness sticks out as the only prominent theme besides the recent firming in gold and silver. NZD was lower again overnight on a soft NZ Q3 inflation expectations survey.

Table: NEW FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.

Little new to grab onto here in the individual pairs as trend status for JPY pairs is mostly hopelessly caught in the churning from intervention impulses and backfilling, while the USD status in many pairs looks negative, but is still an open question and partly caught up in the JPY drama.

John J. Hardy

Global Head of Macro Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Forex Highlighted articles Trump Version 2 - Traders FR US Actualites et Analyses EURUSD USDJPY UKMustRead

Treasury market reaction to US CPI the next key.

Wed, 12 Aug 2026 09:08:00 Z

US treasury yields in focus after longest yields tested high end of range.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.

Questions and comments, please!

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

Pressures from macro backdrop building ahead of US CPI.

Tue, 11 Aug 2026 09:15:00 Z

US long yields are at cycle highs again ahead of key US data.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.

Links

FT covers Nvidia putting together a financing package for USD 500 billion in AI spending with some of the world's largest financil groups.
FTAlphaville asks how much hidden leverage there is in the hyperscaler AI buildout. The answer seems to be "a lot".
The St. Louis Fed offers a deep dive into what is driving the steep decline in the US labor force participation rate, most of which looks benign and relative to statistical adjustments and the aging US population, but there was still some cause for concern from the June and July data on prime age workers.

Questions and comments, please!

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

From Nvidia to Wall Street: who pays for the AI buildout?

Tue, 11 Aug 2026 08:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

AI’s next bottleneck may be capital as infrastructure spending outruns what technology companies want to fund alone.
CoreWeave tests whether enormous contracted demand can translate into better cash economics as new capacity comes online.
Follow the AI dollar: chipmakers, cloud operators and financiers can grow quickly, but their returns may differ sharply.

Artificial intelligence (AI) keeps moving its bottlenecks. First, advanced chips were scarce. Then data-centre space, electricity and networking joined the queue. Now money is becoming harder to ignore.

On 10 August 2026, Nvidia announced partnerships with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR to create financing platforms designed to mobilise more than 500 billion USD of third-party capital for AI infrastructure. This is not Nvidia writing a 500 billion USD cheque. It is an attempt to make computing infrastructure easier for outside investors to finance.

CoreWeave reports second-quarter results on 11 August after the US market closes, making it a useful live test. The specialist AI cloud company rents powerful computing infrastructure. Demand is enormous. The harder question is what it costs to serve it.

Wall Street joins the server room

Nvidia’s move shows how the AI cycle is changing. Graphics processing units (GPUs) need buildings, power, cooling and networking before customers can use them.

The money therefore travels through a long chain: capital into data centres, then Nvidia chips and networking, then cloud capacity sold to AI developers and enterprises. Every layer can grow, but the economics differ.

Cheaper financing can help Nvidia customers build more infrastructure using its technology. Financiers can earn fees and interest. Cloud operators face a different burden: spend heavily today, then depend on utilisation and pricing to make those assets profitable tomorrow.

CoreWeave turns demand into a financing question

CoreWeave’s first quarter shows why revenue growth is an incomplete scorecard. Revenue more than doubled to 2.08 billion USD and contracted backlog reached 99.4 billion USD. Yet it spent 7.7 billion USD on property and equipment, carried roughly 24.9 billion USD of debt and recorded 536 million USD of net interest expense.

For 2026, CoreWeave has indicated capital spending of roughly 31 billion to 35 billion USD, more than double 2025 levels. That spending creates value only if customers use the capacity, contracts turn into revenue on schedule and financing does not absorb too much profit.

This is where return on invested capital (ROIC) helps. It asks how much operating profit a business produces from the money tied up in it. Booming revenue can still disappoint shareholders if every extra unit of growth requires even more capital.

Five words matter in tonight’s results: demand, capacity, capital, cash and concentration. Is backlog becoming revenue? Is new capacity filling quickly? Is financing becoming cheaper? Is cash generation improving? How much depends on a few large customers?

The same bill arrives in different envelopes

CoreWeave is not alone. Nebius, another AI cloud provider, raised 775 million USD in secured debt on 17 July, backed by GPU infrastructure and contracted cash flows. Super Micro Computer, which builds AI servers, announced up to 7 billion USD of equity and equity-linked financing in June to fund components for its order book.

The structures differ, but the lesson is similar: rapid demand can consume cash before it generates it.

Risks: when the maths stops cooperating

Three risks matter most. First, utilisation or pricing could weaken if capacity grows faster than demand. Watch backlog conversion and margins. Second, financing costs could stay high. Rising interest expense or repeated capital raises are warning signs. Third, hardware improves quickly. If older GPUs lose economic value faster than expected, replacement spending can erode returns.

Investor playbook

Compare capital spending with revenue and margin progress, not revenue growth alone.
Watch backlog conversion. Contracts matter most when they become utilised capacity and cash.
Separate technology suppliers, infrastructure owners and financiers. Their economics can diverge sharply.
Stress-test customer concentration and hardware cycles before extrapolating today’s demand.

The bill becomes part of the story

The AI race started as a scramble for chips. It became a race for data centres, power and networks. Nvidia’s new Wall Street partnerships show that capital is now becoming part of the infrastructure itself. CoreWeave, Nebius and Supermicro show why: extraordinary demand can require extraordinary funding long before the cash economics mature.

For investors, the useful question is therefore no longer simply who is building the most AI capacity. It is who can turn that capacity into durable cash returns without continually asking lenders or shareholders to refill the tank. In the next phase of AI, scale will matter. So will the return on every dollar used to build it.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Artificial Intelligence Theme - Artificial intelligence NVidia Corp.

Asia Market Quick Take – 11 August, 2026

Tue, 11 Aug 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 11 August, 2026

Key points:

Macro: US-Iran deal grows uncertain after Trump demands compensation
Equities: Nvidia teams with Apollo, Blackstone, BlackRock, and Brookfield to raise $500B
FX: USD strengthens broadly while yen weakens sharply
Commodities: Brent crude up ~10% over four sessions; spot gold tops $4,400/oz.
Fixed income: US Treasuries sell off for a third straight session

------------------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

Uncertainty over a US–Iran deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz has grown after Trump demanded compensation for victims of Iranian-backed conflicts, responding to Tehran’s reparations demands. The tougher stance lowers chances of a near-term agreement and keeps markets wary, as Iran ties any Hormuz deal with Oman to a broader accord with the US and Trump opts for economic pressure over new strikes.
China’s Communist Party leadership vowed more proactive macro policy, faster deployment of fiscal funds and bond proceeds, continued support for equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins, and stronger efforts to boost still-weak domestic demand.
US July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000, and May–June figures were revised down by a combined 103,000, revealing a weaker labor market than previously thought.

Equities:

US — The S&P 500 closed flat on Monday at 7,753.11, pulling back marginally from its all-time high set on Friday. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.3% to 26,605.36 and the Dow Jones slipped 0.1% to 53,975.98. Nvidia remained flat on reports that Wall Street banks and financial institutions are working with the chipmaker on a new initiative to invest $500b in AI infrastructure while financials outperformed, rising 0.3%. Energy stocks also gained as oil climbed. JPMorgan raised its S&P 500 year-end target to 8,000, citing strong earnings and AI capex payoffs.
EU — European stocks closed at a record high on Monday, with the Stoxx 600 little changed at 660.45 and the Euro Stoxx 50 edging up 0.18% to 6,535.62 — a new record close. The DAX was broadly flat at 26,323.88. Energy stocks including TotalEnergies were among the top gainers as oil advanced, while rate-sensitive utilities and real estate lagged. ASML rose 1.0% and Qiagen led the DAX with a 5.5% gain. The FTSE 100 underperformed, falling 0.4% to 10,862.50, with British American Tobacco down 4.4% and Coca-Cola HBC dropping 4.8%. The SMI rose 0.6%, led by Richemont (+2.7%) and Roche (+1.6%).
Asia — Asian equities were broadly mixed on Tuesday morning. The Kospi opened sharply lower, falling approximately 0.9–1.1% to around 6,229–6,240, weighed by weakness in chipmakers and broader risk-off sentiment tied to the Strait of Hormuz standoff and higher oil prices. The South Korean won was among the worst-performing currencies. Japan's markets are closed for a public holiday on Tuesday, with no cash Treasury trading during Asian hours. Hong Kong and mainland China markets opened with focus on energy and chip-related names; the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 1.7% on Monday. Taiwan ETFs saw record inflows last week of $538 million, driven by AI semiconductor optimism. MSCI ASEAN gained 0.2% to 827.57 on Monday.

Earnings this week:

Tuesday: Super Micro; CoreWeave; Sea Ltd.; Cava Group; Lumentum
Wednesday: Tencent; Brinker International; Cerebras Systems
Thursday: Applied Materials; JD.com
Friday: Kweichow Moutai

FX:

JPY was Monday’s weakest G10 currency, falling 1% to 159.29 per dollar and giving back about half of its recent gains from the joint US–Japan intervention. Markets remain wary of further official action, while MUFG notes yen demand is subdued ahead of Wednesday’s US CPI release.
USD advanced against most major and emerging-market currencies. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose about 0.2%, helped by fading hopes for a Hormuz-related agreement and higher oil prices.
The offshore yuan eased around 0.1% to 6.7465 per dollar, despite the PBOC setting a stronger-than-expected fixing at 6.7884.
AUD hovered around 0.7056 ahead of Tuesday’s RBA meeting. With markets not fully pricing a 25 bp hike this year or into early 2027, analysts see AUD moves being driven more by yen cross dynamics than by RBA guidance in the near term.

Commodities:

Brent crude held near $87.70 a barrel, up approximately 10% over the prior four sessions, as the Strait of Hormuz standoff showed no signs of resolution. WTI settled up 5.1% at $82.13 on Monday, its highest level in a week. The sustained advance is stoking inflation concerns and weighing on risk assets globally.
Spot gold rose above $4,400 an ounce, supported by geopolitical uncertainty around the Hormuz standoff and technical buying after bullion broke through its 100-day moving average. Gold surged more than 7% last week, its best weekly performance in months, following the weak US jobs print.
Copper nears record above $14,000/t on LME amid warehouse tightness, pre-Section 232 stockpiling, and a partial DRC concentrate export ban; a delayed US tariff decision keeps tail risks elevated.

Fixed income:

US Treasuries sold off as oil prices surged for a third consecutive session, with yields rising 4–6 basis points across the curve. The 10-year yield rose approximately 5.9bps to 4.705% and the 30-year climbed 4.6bps to 5.249%.
Monday saw 19 new investment-grade deals, the most in a single day since January. All eyes are on Wednesday's July CPI print, which will be the key near-term catalyst for rate-hike pricing.
Treasury Secretary Bessent is reportedly taking steps to cap long-end yields after 10-year rates recently hit a 19-year high. Separately, Japanese investors reportedly sold US Treasuries in July while buying European developed market bonds, according to Barclays data, adding to structural demand concerns for the long end.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

Space earnings preview: can Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile turn orbit into a business?

Mon, 10 Aug 2026 09:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile test two routes to commercial space: integrated infrastructure and satellite connectivity.
Execution now matters more than proof of concept. Investors need manufacturing, launch cadence and customer conversion.
The space economy is shifting towards recurring services, where utilisation, margins and cash matter more than spectacular hardware.

Space has spent years proving the physics. Now it needs to prove the economics.

Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile both report second-quarter updates on 10 August 2026. They sit at different points in the space economy, but face the same question: can impressive engineering become a repeatable business?

Rocket Lab wants the whole stack

Rocket Lab launches rockets, builds satellites and components, and operates missions for customers.

First-quarter revenue reached a record USD 200 million, backlog exceeded USD 2.2 billion and its contracted launch manifest topped 70 missions. On 4 August, it also won a USD 397 million US Space Force contract covering satellites, launch and operations.

The proposed USD 8 billion acquisition of Iridium pushes the model further. Iridium brings an operating communications network and more than 2.5 million subscribers. If completed, Rocket Lab would add something rockets alone cannot provide: recurring communications revenue.

The question is whether vertical integration improves economics or simply creates more things to fund. Watch Space Systems profitability, backlog conversion, launch cadence and progress on Neutron, its larger rocket still targeted for a debut later in 2026.

AST needs the factory to catch up

AST SpaceMobile is building a satellite network designed to deliver broadband directly to ordinary mobile phones through existing mobile operators.

BlueBirds 8 to 10 launched on 17 June, followed by BlueBirds 11 to 13 on 5 August. AST still targets roughly 45 satellites in orbit during 2026. With 13 BlueBird satellites now launched, the remaining schedule is demanding.

That makes earnings per share almost beside the point. The useful numbers are operational: satellites completed, launch cadence, cost per satellite and cash consumed.

Investors should also listen for the timing of commercial service and whether operator partnerships begin producing meaningful revenue. AST had nearly 60 mobile-network partners at its first-quarter update. Those operators already own the customer relationship. AST does not need to build the distribution network, but it does need enough satellites to make the service reliable.

From missions to infrastructure

SpaceX offers the clearest template. Launch is valuable, but it also supports Starlink, a connectivity service built on satellites that SpaceX can manufacture and launch itself. Rocket Lab is moving towards a broader version of that model. AST starts with connectivity and uses telecom operators for distribution.

For investors, the space economy is therefore becoming less about selling individual missions and more about building infrastructure.

That shifts attention towards fairly boring measures such as utilisation, manufacturing costs, recurring customers, margins and cash generation. Boring is often what happens when an industry starts becoming real. For a broader view, our space economy shortlist highlights companies across launch, satellites, communications and aerospace infrastructure that could benefit as space becomes a more commercial industry.

Risks

Execution remains the obvious risk. Delayed rockets, slower satellite production or launch bottlenecks can push revenue further away. Financing also matters because both models require heavy spending before their full economics are proven. Repeated schedule slips, rising cash needs or commercial-service dates moving further out would be useful warning signs.

Investor playbook

Separate technical milestones from economic milestones. A launch matters more when it unlocks paying customers.
Track cadence, not isolated events. Repetition shows whether operations are becoming industrial.
Watch funding alongside growth. Expansion matters less if cash requirements rise even faster.
Compare business models. Recurring services help only when infrastructure is reliable and well used.

Now the business model has to land

Launches make headlines. Businesses need repeat customers. Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile are now being tested on that second part. Rocket Lab must show that launch, manufacturing and communications can reinforce each other economically. AST must show that satellite production can move fast enough for telecom partnerships to become a working network.

Neither story depends on one quarter, and both remain capital intensive. But the direction is clearer. As space matures, investors may spend less time asking whether the technology can reach orbit and more time asking whether customers will pay repeatedly once it gets there. The rockets still need to land. Increasingly, so does the business model.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Quarterly earnings

The FX Trader: Tepid reaction to soft US jobs data. US CPI up next.

Mon, 10 Aug 2026 08:00:00 Z

Volatility is hard to come by, which also keeps JPY lower.

The latest

A soft US July non-farm payrolls report Friday confirmed other weak numbers, but the Household Survey confused as the US unemployment rate dropped. Friday’s payrolls numbers were ugly indeed, as we got a -23k drop in payrolls versus +80k expected and the net revision of the prior two months of data was worse still at -107k. This largely confirmed the soft ADP number from earlier in the week and the suddenly sub-50 July ISM Services Employment Index. But the Household Survey used to compile the unemployment rate confused slightly, as the rate dropped to 4.1% versus the expectation for an unchanged reading of 4.2%. But that was partially explained by another 0.1% drop in the participation rate, which has been plummeting this year, though a significant chunk of the decline was due to a one-off statistical methodology adjustment. Evidence suggests that most of the drop-off is due to less labor force participation among 55+ workers, so the old “discouraged workers” explanation doesn’t really hold It is likely mostly due, therefore, to bulge of boomers in the demographic profile that are leaving the workforce Still, it is remarkable that, if we ignore the pandemic-impacted 2020-21 calendar years, we now have the lowest total labor force participation rate since the 1970’s, which is the decade that saw the largest acceleration in women entering the labor market.

Bottom line (s): The recent US dollar move lower was mostly driven by the coordinated intervention in the Japanese yen. This Friday jobs report didn’t meaningfully change the relative yield spreads between the US and global peers, so there is little for currency traders to go on here until we get more significant data surprises (Wednesday’s US CPI release is the most important next data point) or more forceful policy moves from the BoJ and Takaichi government, in the case of Japan (see below).

The JPY doesn’t want to stay up. Friday showed us that the JPY is a very tough currency to strengthen, as discussed in the look at the EURJPY chart below. One would have thought that Friday’s weak US jobs data was just what the doctor ordered to get the JPY higher, and yet the punch lower in USDJPY to below 157.00 after the data release was completely backfilled and here we are today with USDJPY and other JPY crosses near or at local highs. I am still constructive on the Japanese yen, but it could continue to prove tough to turn higher if global yields and risk sentiment don’t turn more consistently lower as well. The US CPI data Wednesday is the next test for JPY crosses and could drive even more JPY weakness in the very short term if it comes in hot.

Chart focus: EURJPY.
Treasury Secretary Bessent’s notice that the US had sold Euros versus the Japanese yen rather than selling USDJPY caught European counterparts by surprise. The US move to sell EURJPY rather than USDJPY was largely symbolic and served two purposes. First, it was a signal that the US is willing to back up Japan’s efforts to strengthen its currency, as coordinated intervention is read by the market as far more impressive than Japan going it alone. Second, the US wanted to avoid suggesting anything about the broader US dollar level (and importantly, therefore, not wanting to spook global holders of US treasuries to lower their exposures to said treasuries or alter their plans to continue buying them in the future.) And yet here we are with EURJPY backing up above 183.00. For the Ichimoku-based picture here, the local resistance might be the cloud area as well as the lagging span line (green) hitting the old price bars, but recent action has shown little respect for cloud levels, so there is very little precision here – but bears need for the 183.00-185.00 zone to provide resistance at some point.

Source: Saxo

RBA Tuesday (tomorrow): no expectations. The RBA meeting this time around should be short on drama after the Q2 CPI tempered expectations for further rate rises from the bank for now, with only around 15 basis points of further policy tightening priced in through the remainder of this calendar year’s RBA meetings.

FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.
Note: If unfamiliar with the FX board, please see a video tutorial for understanding and using the FX Board.

The yen’s “trending” move from intervention has now been cut more than in half over the last week as we have yet to see a follow-up wave of strength. Elsewhere, the Swiss franc and the US dollar are weak, but conviction is weak here until we have a clearer read on the yen. Gold and silver have impressed with the recent sharp rally, on the other hand.

Table: NEW FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.

The Gold and silver rallies are significant and have moved the trend positive – watching for whether these maintain above the former resistance and eventually take on the 200-day moving averages. Note that the oldest trends in the top table of most traded pairs are USDCHF and EURCHF – can these persist if we finally get a follow up wave of JPY strength? The initial JPY blast higher on intervention only triggered a one-day adjustment in CHF crosses lower on the perceived general threat to carry trades

John J. Hardy

Global Head of Macro Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Forex Highlighted articles Trump Version 2 - Traders FR US Actualites et Analyses EURUSD USDJPY UKMustRead

Polysilicon supply chains may surprise you. US jobs data today!

Fri, 07 Aug 2026 09:30:00 Z

US hitting two supply chain birds with one policy stone.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.

Questions and comments, please!

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

AI is rewriting the software bill: what earnings say about SaaS disruption

Fri, 07 Aug 2026 09:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

AI threatens software built around simple tasks and seat counts, but can strengthen platforms tied to critical workflows and proprietary data.
Recent earnings show monetisation matters: HubSpot is changing pricing, while ServiceNow, SAP and Atlassian still show strong AI-linked demand.
Investors can track retention, pricing and workflow depth rather than treating the entire software sector as one disrupted trade.

Software-as-a-service (SaaS), cloud software sold by subscription, has spent much of 2026 under a simple fear: if artificial intelligence (AI) agents do more work, companies may need fewer human users and therefore fewer licences. But the risk is more nuanced than “AI kills software”. The real shift is in what customers are willing to pay for. Value is moving away from features and seat counts, towards outcomes, proprietary data, embedded workflows and transactions.

The seat is getting nervous

For years, SaaS had a convenient growth engine. A customer hired more people, bought more seats and paid more subscription fees. AI challenges that formula because fewer employees, supported by agents, may handle the same workload.

HubSpot is a useful case study. The customer-management platform grew second-quarter revenue 20%, yet slightly lowered its full-year outlook. Management said it was deliberately changing its products, pricing and sales model to make AI easier to adopt.

That can help adoption while delaying revenue. The old question was “how many seats?” The new one is increasingly “how much valuable work runs through the platform?”

Atlassian is preparing for that shift. Its new Flex model lets large customers commit to a fixed budget but move spending between seats, applications and AI usage. Salesforce is also reporting “agentic work units” alongside rapid Agentforce adoption. The billing unit itself is starting to evolve.

Workflow is the new moat

AI can recreate a feature surprisingly quickly. Recreating years of company data, integrations, permissions and workflows is harder.

That matters for ServiceNow, SAP, Workday and Salesforce. These companies sit inside important processes such as information technology, finance, human resources and customer management. Replacing them is less like swapping an app and more like rewiring an office building.

Recent earnings suggest these platforms still have leverage. ServiceNow grew subscription revenue by about a quarter and said its AI products crossed USD 1 billion in annual contract value. SAP reported 26% constant-currency growth in current cloud backlog. Workday continued to grow subscriptions while raising its margin outlook.

Adobe and Intuit offer similar evidence. Adobe said AI-first annual recurring revenue more than tripled and raised its full-year targets in June. Intuit raised its full-year revenue guidance after its May results.

None of this makes incumbents immune. It suggests that proprietary data and embedded workflows can make AI a reason to use the platform more, rather than remove it.

AI can enlarge the market too

Shopify and AppLovin sit slightly outside traditional SaaS, but they help define the boundaries.

Shopify earns from subscriptions, payments and merchant activity. Second-quarter revenue grew 34%, while AI-driven traffic and orders to merchants tripled. If AI helps shoppers discover and buy more products, Shopify can benefit even if the traditional software interface matters less.

AppLovin shows another risk. Its advertising engine depends heavily on AI model quality. Revenue still grew more than 50%, but results fell slightly short of expectations and progress on a new model slowed. When AI itself is the advantage, model execution becomes a business risk.

The distinction matters. AI can disrupt the interface while strengthening the underlying platform.

Where disruption can bite

The highest risk sits with software that solves narrow tasks, owns little unique data and is easy to replace. Warning signs include weaker customer growth, falling revenue per customer and heavier discounting.

A second risk is pricing. Moving from seats to usage or outcomes can improve long-term economics, but the transition may look messy. Investors can watch whether AI revenue grows without steadily weakening margins or cash generation.

The third is competition. AI makes it cheaper and faster to build software, so customers may have more alternatives. Incumbents need their data, distribution and integration advantages to remain valuable.

Investor playbook

Separate systems running critical workflows from tools that mainly add convenient features.
Track retention, revenue per customer and AI usage, not simply the number of AI launches.
Watch pricing changes. Flexible models can expand adoption, but they must eventually support healthy economics.
Diversify across business models rather than treating one software company as the entire AI disruption story.

The moat matters more than the model

AI is not cancelling SaaS. It is cancelling the assumption that adding seats automatically creates durable growth. This earnings season shows a more selective contest. Platforms with deep workflows, trusted data and strong distribution can use AI to become more useful. Simpler tools may have to defend why they exist at all.

The strongest signal is therefore not how often management says “AI”, a metric that remains conveniently unlimited. It is what customers do next: renew, expand, automate more work and pay for measurable outcomes. That is also the useful way to view Saxo’s software shortlist. These companies face the same technological wave, but very different economics. AI will not treat them equally, and neither should investors.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Quarterly earnings Artificial Intelligence Theme - Artificial intelligence

RIP Victor Niederhoffer

Thu, 06 Aug 2026 11:37:00 Z

A Wall Street legend has passed.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.

Questions and comments, please!

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

Rheinmetall earnings: Europe’s defence boom is real, but not every contract survives

Thu, 06 Aug 2026 11:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Rheinmetall’s land, ammunition and air-defence businesses remain strong despite the lost frigate contract.
The guidance cut shows defence budgets only become revenue after contracts, approvals and delivery.
Investors should watch cash flow, contract concentration and production execution, not backlog growth alone.

Europe’s defence boom looks like a rising tide, but Rheinmetall’s results show that even a rising tide does not float every warship. On 6 August 2026, Germany’s largest defence company lowered its annual sales outlook after the government cancelled the F126 frigate programme. The operating performance was strong, but much of it had already been released in July. The new information was weaker guidance and another reminder that political ambition is not booked revenue.

The quarter was stronger than the headline

Rheinmetall makes military vehicles, ammunition, air-defence systems and digital equipment. It has also expanded into naval shipbuilding.

First-half sales rose 39% to EUR 5.2 billion, while operating profit increased 74%. Profit grew faster because factories produced more, fixed costs were spread across more units and the product mix improved.

The second quarter was especially strong. Sales rose by nearly 70%, while operating profit reached EUR 562 million, exceeding market expectations compiled by Bloomberg. Vehicles, weapons, ammunition and air defence all expanded.

The operating margin, which shows how much profit remains from each euro of sales before financing and tax, also improved. Growth is less useful when expansion weakens profitability. Rheinmetall showed the opposite.

A large order book is still only a promise

Rheinmetall’s backlog reached EUR 80.5 billion, providing years of potential work. But backlog is a map, not cash in the bank.

Defence orders move through budgets, approvals, design changes and political negotiations. The F126 cancellation is a clear example. The programme involved six large multi-purpose frigates planned for the German Navy, with Rheinmetall expected to play a major role. Germany still plans to spend heavily on defence, but it chose a smaller, less costly naval solution instead.

The muted market reaction suggests investors looked beyond the lower guidance and focused on the strength of the underlying business. Rheinmetall continues to benefit from Europe’s rising demand for defence equipment, but the results also show that converting that demand into contracts, deliveries and cash is rarely a straight line.

The lesson reaches beyond Rheinmetall. Large defence budgets favour the sector, but gains will not arrive evenly. Ammunition and maintenance can produce repeat orders. Ships and complex vehicle programmes bring larger contracts, but also greater political and execution risk.

The next battle is on the factory floor

Rheinmetall is investing heavily in plants, equipment and inventory. This expansion absorbs cash before customers receive their products.

Operating free cash flow was negative EUR 1.6 billion in the first half. Management attributed this mainly to delayed customer advance payments, higher inventories, receivables and continued investment. These may be normal growing pains, but profit can look excellent while cash takes a slower route home.

For the wider sector, the next phase is less about announcing larger budgets and more about industrial delivery. Suppliers of explosives, electronics, engines, sensors and specialised metals must expand alongside the main contractors. A missing component can delay an entire system.

Risks behind the order book

The main risks are contract concentration, delivery delays and persistent cash absorption. Early warning signs include repeated guidance changes, rising inventories without matching sales, slower backlog conversion and weaker margins as new factories ramp up. Political priorities can also change while total defence spending remains high.

Investor playbook

Separate spending promises from signed, funded contracts with realistic delivery dates.
Track whether backlog growth becomes revenue, profit and eventually cash.
Compare product mix, since repeat ammunition orders differ from one-off platform projects.
Diversify across contractors, suppliers, products and countries rather than one procurement decision.

The tide still matters

Rheinmetall’s quarter does not break Europe’s defence investment case. Demand remains strong, the order book is deep and factory economics are improving. But the lost frigate shows why investors cannot stop at headline budget numbers. Governments may spend more while changing suppliers, designs or schedules. Companies must finance capacity, manage complex supply chains and deliver equipment before accounting profits become cash.

The best long-term signal is not simply a larger backlog. It is a steady conversion of orders into profitable production and cash generation. Europe’s defence tide is still rising, but investors must check which vessels are actually under contract before assuming everything will float.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Quarterly earnings Theme - Defence Defence Rheinmetall AG

SpaceX's Starmind to start on terra firma. Gold rally a signal?

Wed, 05 Aug 2026 14:27:00 Z

Market underwhelmed by SpaceX musings on future.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.

Questions and comments, please!

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

SpaceX and AMD earnings: strong numbers meet stronger expectations

Wed, 05 Aug 2026 08:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Both companies beat current expectations, but investors focused on the timing and cost of future artificial intelligence returns.
SpaceX shows the buyer’s burden, AMD shows the supplier’s challenge in a more demanding artificial intelligence market.
The next winners may turn infrastructure spending into recurring revenue, stronger margins and cash flow.

Artificial intelligence has spent two years asking investors for patience. On 4 August 2026, SpaceX and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) presented the latest bill.

SpaceX builds rockets, satellite networks and artificial intelligence infrastructure. AMD makes processors for computers and data centres. Both reported strong growth. Both shares fell in post-market trading.

Investors no longer ask only whether demand is growing. They ask who pays for it, when spending becomes revenue, and how much cash remains afterwards.

Good quarters, difficult audiences

SpaceX’s first report since its initial public offering delivered quarterly revenue of 7.8 billion USD, above Bloomberg expectations. Yet capital spending reached about 18.4 billion USD, mostly for artificial intelligence computing infrastructure.

SpaceX therefore spent more than twice its quarterly revenue building for the future. Investors questioned the timetable, not the ambition.

AMD faced a similar test. Quarterly revenue rose 50%, while data-centre sales more than doubled. But capital spending was almost three times higher than analysts expected, adding another question about how quickly growth will translate into cash.

A company can beat forecasts and still disappoint when its valuation assumes an even larger beat. Earnings are marked against expectations, not effort.

Two sides of the same data centre

SpaceX is becoming a giant buyer and operator of computing capacity. AMD wants to supply the processors that make that capacity useful. One writes the infrastructure cheque, the other competes to receive it.

Artificial intelligence has entered a more demanding phase. Building capacity is no longer enough. Companies must show that customers use it, pay for it and return often enough to cover the cost.

For SpaceX, that means converting heavy spending into durable cloud, connectivity and artificial intelligence revenue. Starlink provides an existing subscription engine, but newer projects still need large investment.

For AMD, the test is market share and execution. It has become a credible alternative to Nvidia in artificial intelligence processors. It must now prove customers adopt its broader systems at scale without sacrificing profitability.

The sector’s next dividing line

The market is splitting into three groups. One sells components such as processors, memory and networking equipment. Another builds data centres, power systems and cooling. The final group must earn enough from software and services to justify everyone else’s invoices.

The first two can enjoy strong demand while the third searches for returns. Either artificial intelligence revenue catches up, or infrastructure spending eventually slows.

The boom also creates bottlenecks. Memory shortages raise computer costs, while power constraints delay data centres. A gold rush still needs roads, electricity and rather a lot of air conditioning.

Risks worth watching

SpaceX’s main risk is that spending remains high while new revenue arrives more slowly than planned. Watch capital spending, free cash flow, Starlink subscriber growth and Starship delays.

AMD faces competition from Nvidia, customer-designed chips and other suppliers. Warning signs include slower data-centre growth, weaker pricing, rising inventories or delayed customer projects.

For the wider sector, the main risk is not that artificial intelligence disappears. It is that supply grows faster than profitable demand.

Investor playbook

Track revenue growth beside free cash flow. Fast sales matter less when cash consumption rises faster.
Separate company performance from market expectations. A good quarter can still be a poor surprise.
Map exposure across chips, memory, networking, power, cooling and software instead of treating artificial intelligence as one trade.
Watch customer concentration. Large contracts accelerate growth but can make revenue less dependable.

The next test is cash

Artificial intelligence is not running out of ambition. SpaceX is trying to connect rockets, satellites, cloud computing and artificial intelligence into one enormous system. AMD is trying to become the essential second supplier inside it. Both may succeed, but their earnings show that the market’s question has changed.

Investors once rewarded companies for joining the race. They now want evidence that spending creates repeatable revenue, improving economics and eventually cash. The useful lesson is not to predict the winner. It is to watch who converts construction into customers, customers into profits, and profits into cash. The bill has arrived. The receipts matter next.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Theme - Artificial intelligence Artificial Intelligence Quarterly earnings

Asia Market Quick Take – 05 August, 2026

Wed, 05 Aug 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 5 August, 2026

Key points:

Macro: Bessent highlights possibility of US-Iran deal soon
Equities: S&P 500 hit record with Palantir up 29% on strong earnings
FX: Oil–Iran headlines reverse early USD strength; JPY volatile, AUD rebounds on softer USD
Commodities: Brent -5.3% to $79, lowest since Jul 10; LME copper >$14k/t, 2-month high.
Fixed income: US Treasuries rallied; 2Y yield lowest since Jul 20

------------------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

US Treasury Secretary Bessent said a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could come as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday, noting that some ships are already transiting the strait.
Japan’s average cash earnings rose 3.4% year-on-year in June 2026, slightly above May’s revised 3.3% and in line with forecasts. It was the 54th consecutive month of nominal wage growth and the fifth with gains above 3%. Base pay also increased 3.4%. Real wages rose 1.6% for a sixth month, bolstering the case for further central bank rate hikes.
New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose to 5.6% in Q2, the highest since 2015 and above expectations. Employment was steady at 66.7%, participation increased to 70.7%, and underutilisation climbed to 13.8%, signaling more labour market slack.
US factory orders fell 0.3% in June 2026 to $656.5 billion after a 1.1% drop in May, missing expectations for a 0.2% rise. Non-durable goods orders fell 1.2%, while durable goods rose 0.5%, with gains in machinery and electronics offset by weaker fabricated metals and transportation equipment.
US job quits rose by 79,000 to 3.23 million in June 2026, led by leisure and hospitality, trade/transportation/utilities, and construction. The quits rate stayed at 2.0%, near its lowest since 2020, indicating workers remain cautious about changing jobs.
US job openings fell by 178,000 to 7.36 million in June 2026, below expectations. Hires held at 5.3 million and separations at 5.4 million, with quits and layoffs little changed.
US imports fell 1.8% in June 2026 to $388 billion, with goods down on weaker capital and consumer goods, partly offset by more telecom equipment. Services imports rose slightly, led by intellectual property, transport, and insurance, while travel declined.

Equities:

US — The S&P 500 closed at a record high on Tuesday, gaining 1.8% to 7,736.52, its first record since June. The Dow Jones rose 907 points (+1.7%) to a fresh all-time high of 54,085.88, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.6% to 26,585 and the Nasdaq 100 surged 3.3% — its best single-day outperformance versus the equal-weight Nasdaq 100 on record. Palantir soared 29% after raising its full-year revenue and profit forecasts. Caterpillar beat earnings estimates. Chipmakers posted their best four-day rally since 2020. Gartner surged 23% on earnings. After hours, SpaceX reported Q2 revenue of $7.8 billion, well above the $6.81 billion estimate but fell 7%, while AMD fell 9% after issuing a Q3 outlook of $13b, which was below some estimates.
EU — European stocks hit a record high on Tuesday, with the Stoxx 600 rising 0.7% to 656.86, its first closing record since 3 July. Italy's FTSE MIB and France's CAC 40 also scaled new peaks. The DAX gained 0.8% to 26,202. Miners led gains as copper rose above $14,000 per tonne — a two-month high — with Antofagasta surging 6.9%. ASML rose 3.7% and Bayer climbed 2.4% on an unexpected profit beat. Zalando and Lufthansa were notable laggards, with Lufthansa cutting guidance.
Asia — Asian equities on Tuesday struggled to follow Wall Street's tech-led rally, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index falling 0.5%. The Kospi whipsawed, falling as much as 2.8% as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix extended losses, with the index remaining highly volatile following its historic 18% surge on Friday and subsequent 5.1% drop on Monday. The Nikkei declined 0.9% to 63,171 and the Topix fell 0.5% to 3,940, weighed by underwhelming earnings and yen intervention jitters. Hong Kong and Taiwan also retreated. Southeast Asian benchmarks outperformed. WuXi AppTec surged up to 14.6% in Hong Kong after raising FY26 guidance sharply. Techtronic beat 1H estimates. Looking ahead, futures for Japan, Australia and South Korea (Kospi futures +4.9%) all pointed higher overnight, tracking Wall Street's record close and Hormuz deal optimism.

Earnings this week:

Wednesday: Walt Disney, Uber, Shopify, SanDisk, Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Block, Honda
Thursday: Molson Coors, Monster Beverage, Warner Bros Discovery, Airbnb, SoftBank Group, DBS, Nintendo, Orix
Friday: OCBC

FX:

USD finished slightly softer, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index down about 0.1% as Treasury yields and oil prices fell.
USDJPY still posted the widest G10 range (157.18–157.96) and ended modestly higher on the day, with Bessent warning that current yen levels could spur competitive devaluations across Asia.
AUDUSD saw the largest move among commodity FX, trading between 0.6996 and 0.7048 before closing near the highs as oil retreated.
NZD is likely capped near 0.59 against USD, according to Westpac, after New Zealand's Q2 jobs report showed a higher unemployment rate and subdued wage growth, reinforcing expectations for further RBNZ easing.
The yuan strengthened onshore and offshore despite a weaker-than-expected PBOC fix, with USDCNY closing at 6.7492.

Commodities:

Brent fell 5.3% on Tuesday to settle around $79 per barrel — its lowest since 10 July — as Hormuz deal optimism intensified. WTI declined toward $75 per barrel. Oil has now lost more than 10% over two sessions.
LME copper rose above $14,000 per tonne on Tuesday, its highest in two months, as traders monitored ballooning US inventories ahead of an expected Trump administration decision on import tariffs. The copper cash-to-3-month spread rose sharply to $102.38 per tonne, its highest since October 2025, signalling tightening near-term supply.
Gold rose alongside Treasuries on Monday as US-Iran tensions eased and oil prices fell, with the metal benefiting from its dual role as an inflation hedge and safe haven.

Fixed income:

US Treasuries rallied as falling oil prices eased inflation concerns and reduced expectations for more than one Fed rate hike in the coming year. Yields fell 4–6 basis points across the curve, with the 10-year at 4.625%, the 2-year at its lowest since 20 July, and the 30-year at 5.187%. The 5s30s spread steepened modestly to 85.3 basis points.
Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) is due today at 8:30am ET and represents the key near-term risk for the bond market. Dealers broadly expect the Treasury to reiterate its guidance of no near-term increases in coupon auction sizes, though any deviation could halt this week's rally.
Japan FX intervention and Treasury repatriation risk remain a structural concern for the bond market. Japan's use of Treasury holdings as collateral via the Fed's FIMA Repo Facility may soften — but not eliminate — the pressure on US bonds from yen-support operations. JPMorgan raised its year-end forecasts for 10- and 30-year Treasury yields, citing rising inflation expectations and the potential for increased term premium, while BlackRock sees long-dated yields continuing to rise even if the Fed resists hiking.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance. The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

Palantir beats and entertains. What can SpaceX deliver?

Tue, 04 Aug 2026 10:35:00 Z

Palantir CEO is a one of a kind.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.

Questions and comments, please!

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

Palantir earnings: AI leaves the laboratory and enters the workflow

Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:50:00 Z

Key takeaways

Palantir shows business demand for artificial intelligence moving from experiments into daily operations.
Rapid growth now comes with strong profit and cash generation, making the story harder to dismiss.
US momentum is exceptional, but high expectations and weak international growth leave little room for ordinary results.

On 3 August 2026, the data software company reported that revenue nearly doubled and lifted its full-year outlook above market expectations. Palantir closed at 125.65 USD before the results, then rose as much as 15.1%, to 144.65 USD in extended trading.

The reaction was not simply applause for an earnings beat. The quarter challenged two concerns: that generative artificial intelligence could replace traditional software, and that Palantir’s valuation demanded impossible growth.

From pilot project to operating system

Many companies can demonstrate an artificial intelligence model. Far fewer can connect it safely to customer records, factories, supply chains or military decisions.

That gap is Palantir’s opportunity. Its software sits between data, models and the people using the output. The model supplies an answer, while Palantir helps an organisation decide what to do with it.

US commercial revenue rose 149% from a year earlier. This was also broader than one flattering contract. Palantir signed 220 deals worth at least 1 million USD and reported a sharp rise in contracted work not yet recognised as revenue.

The wider software lesson is clear. Artificial intelligence winners may not only build the smartest models. They may also make those models useful, secure and difficult to remove from everyday operations.

Growth meets the cash register

Fast-growing software companies often ask investors to admire sales today and wait for profits tomorrow. Palantir is now offering both.

Revenue grew 93%, while adjusted operating profit exceeded 60 cents for every dollar of sales. Free cash flow, the money left after running and investing in the business, topped 1 billion USD.

Its Rule of 40 score reached 155. This measure adds revenue growth to operating margin to test whether expansion and profitability arrive together. A score above 40 is usually considered healthy. The name is dull. The result is not.

This explains much of the reaction. Investors received evidence that new business can produce substantial profit without costs rising at the same speed.

Sovereignty cuts both ways

Palantir describes its offer as “sovereign artificial intelligence”. Customers can use different models while keeping control of sensitive data and decisions.

That appeals to US companies worried about handing valuable information to external model providers. It also supports defence demand for software that combines data, planning and real-time action.

However, sovereignty has a second meaning. European governments increasingly want local control and less dependence on US technology suppliers. Palantir’s international sales grew far more slowly than its US business, while some European institutions have moved towards domestic alternatives.

The same force helping Palantir at home can therefore limit it abroad. Geography is becoming part of the product.

Risks: gravity still applies

The first risk is expectations. Palantir can perform very well while its shares disappoint if growth becomes merely excellent rather than extraordinary.

The second is concentration. The United States provides most revenue, and government work remains politically sensitive. Contract delays, policy changes or local-supplier rules could affect growth.

Finally, Palantir plans to increase hiring and product spending. Investors should watch whether margins remain strong as the company expands.

Investor playbook

Separate business quality from share-price expectations. A strong company can still carry an unforgiving valuation.
Track contract growth, customer expansion and cash generation, not only headline revenue.
Watch whether commercial success spreads beyond the United States and across more industries.
Compare software firms on real deployments, not the number of artificial intelligence announcements.

The useful signal behind the spectacle

Palantir’s language is rarely shy, and this quarter gives management plenty to celebrate. Yet the useful signal is quieter. Artificial intelligence spending is starting to favour software that connects models to real work, protects sensitive data and produces measurable returns. Palantir currently does all three unusually well.

The next test is not whether growth remains “otherworldly”. No business lives there permanently. It is whether Palantir can turn today’s surge into durable customer habits, broader international demand and cash flows that justify high expectations. Artificial intelligence may start in the laboratory, but long-term value appears only when it clocks in for work.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles Theme - Artificial intelligence UKMustRead Quarterly earnings

The FX Trader: Coordinated JPY intervention changes the playing field.

Tue, 04 Aug 2026 06:46:00 Z

And it won’t just be about USDJPY.

The latest

Coordinated JPY intervention is a big deal, but how does the JPY path shape up from here? Since Friday’s follow-on JPY strengthening, the US made it clear over the weekend that it was also involved in strengthening the Japanese yen by, rather interestingly, confirming that the New York Fed sold euro versus the yen on Friday through accounts with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Buying JPY via EURJPY selling sends the indirect message that the US doesn’t want to send any strong signals on its opinion of the US dollar level. This is perhaps a nod at the US treasury market, where yields are at recent cycle highs. US Treasury Secretary Bessent has no interest in adding any kind of negative pressure on treasuries when the cost of financing US debt is near/at record levels of GDP. Bessent was also at pains to point out that Japan could access the Fed’s FIMA repo facility to intervene, posting its treasuries as collateral to obtain USD to sell rather than selling its treasuries holdings in the open market.

Elsewhere, a key Japanese “currency official” at the Ministry of Finance, Atsushi Mimura, claimed already on Friday that the US was offering more than “moral support”. Early Monday, a further wave of intervention seemed in play, one that drove the JPY to new local highs before backfilling set in late and early Tuesday. Besides the coordinated intervention, Mimura claimed that FX policy would also be coordinated with the Bank of Japan, helping send short JGB yields sharply higher Monday. This latter is a key pillar of support for the JPY beyond the coordinated intervention.

Now, it’s a question of what to make of the situation and the move thus far as well as the intent and determination of both Japanese and US officialdom. The situation is difficult for traders, as it always is when quiet and low-volatility trading ranges suddenly yield to huge moves, but I take a stab in the bottom line below.

Bottom line(s): The first key bottom line is that we have a JPY signal here, not a US dollar signal. If US treasury yields remain elevated near cycle highs and we continue to see strong US data this week through Friday’s jobs report, we could have a regime of both a stable and even firmer US dollar and a strong Japanese yen. Some of the crosses like EURJPY, CHFJPY (the only positive carry choice for JPY longs) and GBPJPY look even more out of whack in valuation terms than USDJPY in the longer-term picture. So traders may want to widen the view beyond USDJPY and think JPY more broadly here.

The remaining key question: is the primary intent merely to staunch the bleeding in the JPY or to see a determined revaluation? I suspect the latter is the eventual goal – something like a 10% or greater move in JPY vs. EUR and USD seen as sufficient to discourage JPY carry trading again, with the hope that Japan’s savers revive their interest in domestic bonds, etc. But it is difficult to know how strongly the market will front-run officialdom and make the move more organically than anything we have seen thus far, where interventions quickly are backfilled, Japan’s policymakers could follow through with a surprisingly quick additional rate hike and hawkish guidance and perhaps sterner language or actual policy on domestic savings to bring additional JPY support, though so far Governor Ueda has been a slow mover in all of this.

Chart focus: EURJPY.
Of course everyone will focus on USDJPY as the most traded JPY pair and the chief vehicle Japan’s Ministry of Finance uses when pushing back against JPY weakness. Key resistance levels there include the 200-day moving average near 158.00 and then the psychological 160.00 level. But a look at other JPY pairs reminds us how profoundly weak the currency is across the board, and these JPY pairs could prove even more volatile than USDJPY itself if the US dollr remains firm. One of the most egregiously overvalued JPY pairs in my eyes has been EURJPY, which hit its record high since the Euro began trading in the 1990’s earlier this year near 188. Already in the summer of 2024 I thought the break above the prior high from 2008 near 170 was taking EURJPY to stretched levels. Back then, the Bank of Japan “intervened” in the JPY carry trade of the time with a surprise rate hike at its July 31, 2024 meeting. This triggered a meltdown from above 175 to below 155.00. Then in 2025 and into this year, the story became one of Japan’s “uninvestible” bond market as the longest Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields showed that the country was finally exiting its multi-decade deflation and low rates era. The 30-year JGB yield benchmark, already creeping higher from early 2022 with the secular shift in global- and eventually Japanese inflation, began grinding higher from early 2023, when it traded around 1.25% to as high as 4.00% by May of this year. For perspective on what that kind of a yield rise means for holders of long-term bonds, consider the 0.5% 2060 JGB, which has fallen from its issuance at par (100) in 2020 to a current price just below 37.0. But that doesn’t mean that the bond is going to zero. At an effective yield of 4% to maturity, that bond offers far better inflation protection than in the ZIRP era.

With the latest bout of intervention, including the US selling euros versus the Japanese yen, EURJPY has dropped as low as 179.37 before bouncing here. The first resistance level is arguably the 182.00 area of the prior notable range low, though the 200-day (40-week) moving average is a more important one up at 183.73 currently. For an indication that we are to continue lower sooner rather than later, I would prefer that the 182.00-182.50 area holds. A more reasonable price for the EURJPY pair is something like 155-160 if the market and the authorities decide that Japan is becoming a “normal” country again with respect to inflation and monetary policy. And that area would still be at the high end of the long term range.

Source: Saxo

Rest of week ahead: USD status, please.
We got a strong July US ISM Manufacturing survey yesterday, which makes sense after a string of mostly strong regional surveys. A strong ISM Services survey Wednesday would offer a more robust indicator on the broader status of the US economy, and the various jobs figures (JOLTS today, ADP tomorrow and the main July jobs report on Friday) will play their part in determining the status of the US dollar, ex USDJPY. Given US treasury yields trading near the cycle highs, the US dollar may be tough to topple unless those yields are punched lower by the data.

FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.
Note: If unfamiliar with the FX board, please see a video tutorial for understanding and using the FX Board.

We have a downright absurd momentum shift of 9.7 in the last five days for JPY crosses, indicative of the violence of the move lower in JPY crosses, which now feel firmly capped if not necessarily ready to trend smoothly lower. Elsewhere, a key signal for CHF that “contagion” from the challenge to JPY carry trades has not sustained after the initial little knee-jerk rally in CHF last Thursday. This encourages CHFJPY as a vehicle for expressing the idea that the SNB would like a weaker CHF while Japan wants its stronger JPY.

Table: NEW FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.
All JPY pairs have flipped to negative trending scores, though risk/reward levels for trading a new trend are difficult here as noted above. Elsewhere, the fresh EURUSD uptrend status is uncertain as traders will question how much was driven by USDJPY intervention – we should have a cleaner read on the USD status by the end of the week.

John J. Hardy

Global Head of Macro Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Forex Highlighted articles Trump Version 2 - Traders FR US Actualites et Analyses EURUSD USDJPY UKMustRead

Coordinated JPY intervention and a cleaner AI hardware slate.

Mon, 03 Aug 2026 11:25:00 Z

What happens now that leverage is much lower?

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.

Today’s Links

What is the Warsh Fed really about?
Nick Timiraos trying to pull some forward guidance from Fed Chair Warsh’s FOMC presser performance, especially whether the task forces will be used to “redefine the inflation challenges away”.

The JPY intervention came at an interesting time FX-positioning wise.
Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen’s look at latest COT report showing FX positioning was getting very long US dollars ahead of the recent official intervention in JPY.

The piece that started it all for Aschenbrenner’s big parlay.
Aschenbrenner’s original Situational Awareness piece that raised so many eyebrows as it confidently predicted the march to urgently allocate titanic amounts to capital in a race to achieve super-intelligence, with the urgency driven by US-China rivalry and the claim that the “free world must prevail”.

From the AI-will-end-humanity funsters
First there was the Yudkowsky/Soares book on the dangers of super-intelligent Artificial General Intelligence “If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies.” and then you even have cheery podcast episodes like Futurology’s “The $15 quadrillion black hole sucking humanity toward extinction”. That podcast link came from a Noema piece arguing that the recent OpenAI frontier model going rogue and hacking into Hugging Face is the first real sign of the risks of losing control of AI. The argument is that we will likely need a much worse incident to inspire a pushback against the model’s being deployed at all. By the way, here is BBC’s assessment of that hacking attack, which was described as both very amateurish and sloppy and frighteningly fast at learning and finding novel ways to hack its target.

Even if AI isn’t set to end humanity, it can be used for some very bad, no good things.
Cory Doctorow is less concerned about AI ending humanity and more concerned about the powers that be mis-using AI to concentrate corporate power, deskill labor and cut wages as humans are forced to serve as minders and gatekeepers of AI-driven tech rather than in control of the tech to empower their own lives. Here is a link to a long speech outlining the entire Reverse Centaur framework.

King of the deflationistas throws in the towel.
Don’t know if this is a contrarian moment, but until now, Lacy Hunt had fretted deflation risks for my entire professional career - and I am no spring chicken.

Chart of the Day - EURJPY since the EUR began trading.

Of course everyone will focus on USDJPY as the most traded JPY pair and the chief vehicle Japan’s Ministry of Finance uses when pushing back against JPY weakness. But a look at other JPY pairs reminds us how profoundly weak the currency is across the board, and other JPY pairs could prove even more volatile than USDJPY itself. One of the most egregiously overvalue JPY pairs in my eyes has been EURJPY, which hit its record high since the Euro began trading in the 1990’s earlier this year near 188. Already in the summer of 2024 I thought the break above the prior high from 2008 near 170 was taking EURJPY to crazy levels. Back then, the Bank of Japan “intervened” in the JPY carry trade of the time with a surprise rate hike at its July 31, 2024 meeting. This triggered a meltdown from above 175 to below 155.00 at one point. Then in 2025 and into this year, the story became one of Japan’s “uninvestible” bond market as the longest Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields showed that the country was finally exiting its multi-decade deflation and low rates era. The 30-year JGB yield benchmark, already creeping higher from early 2022 with the secular shift in global- and eventually Japanese inflation, began grinding higher from early 2023, when it traded around 1.25% to as high as 4.00% by May of this year. For perspective on what that kind of a yield rise means for the total returns for holders of long-term bonds, consider the 0.5% 2060 JGB, which has fallen from its issuance at par (100) in 2020 to a current price just below 37.0. But that doesn’t mean that the bond is going to zero. At an effective yield of 4% to maturity, that bond offers far.

Anyway, with the latest bout of intervention, including the US somewhat oddly selling euros versus the Japanese yen, EURJPY has dropped as low as 179.37 before bouncing here. By the way, I think Treasury Secretary Bessent was trying to avoid sending a message on the US dollar level by intervening in EURJPY - a way to say that this is about the excessively weak JPY, not about a strong US dollar. A more reasonable price for the EURJPY pair is something like 155-160 if the market and the authorities decide that Japan is becoming a “normal” country again with respect to inflation and monetary policy. And that would still be at the high end of the long term range.

Source: Saxo

Questions and comments, please!

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

Palantir, SpaceX and AMD earnings: artificial intelligence gets three different reality checks

Mon, 03 Aug 2026 08:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Palantir, AMD and SpaceX test three layers of artificial intelligence: software, chips and physical infrastructure.
Investors will focus on guidance, cash generation and whether large commitments are becoming real revenue.
The results can show where AI economics are strengthening, and where spending still runs ahead of returns.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is often discussed as one industry. This week shows it is closer to a three-storey building.

Palantir reports after the United States market closes on 3 August 2026. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and SpaceX follow on 4 August 2026. Together, they cover data software, processors, launch services, satellite connectivity and artificial intelligence.

The question is whether demand becomes durable revenue, rising profits and cash that can fund the next stage. Recent technology volatility makes that distinction less academic.

Three floors, three invoices

Palantir sits on the software floor. Its platform helps organisations connect data with artificial intelligence tools and use them in daily operations. It can add customers without building factories or rockets, giving it attractive economics when growth remains strong.

The previous quarter set a demanding benchmark, with revenue rising 85%. This week, the useful signals are customer growth, large contracts and remaining deal value, meaning potential future revenue under existing agreements. The reaction may depend on evidence that momentum remains broad and repeatable.

AMD occupies the chip floor. It designs central processing units and graphics processing units, the computing engines behind servers and artificial intelligence systems. Data-centre revenue grew 57% last quarter, while new agreements strengthened its pipeline.

The key word is conversion. Commitments only create value when systems ship, software works and margins hold. Investors will listen for product delivery, supply, customer adoption and profitability. Strong sales with weaker margins would suggest that competition is becoming more expensive.

SpaceX owns much of the wiring. Starlink provides recurring subscription revenue, while launches, Starship and the recently combined artificial intelligence business require heavy investment.

Its first post-listing earnings will help separate the cash engine from the projects attached to it. Starlink had about 10 million subscribers at the end of March, but SpaceX spent far more on artificial intelligence than on space and connectivity combined during the first quarter. Can profitable connectivity finance several expensive frontiers at once?

Source: Saxo bank internal analysis, based on company filings and investor relations materials from Palantir, AMD and SpaceX.

The number behind the headline

These companies show why “AI exposure” is not one financial category.

Palantir can disappoint through slower guidance even after excellent growth. AMD can beat sales expectations but fall if margins or future shipments weaken. SpaceX can report strong Starlink progress yet concern investors if other projects absorb cash faster than expected.

The wider implications matter. Strong AMD demand would support chip, memory and data-centre suppliers. On Wednesday 5 August, SanDisk and Western Digital will extend the same test to storage, showing whether AI-driven data growth is translating into stronger demand and pricing for flash memory and hard drives. Strong Palantir growth would suggest companies are moving from testing artificial intelligence to using it in real operations. Strong SpaceX connectivity would support satellite broadband, while heavy spending would reinforce concerns about capital intensity.

Risks

Expectations are the first risk. Warning signs include slower customer growth at Palantir, delayed shipments or weaker margins at AMD, and capital spending rising faster than Starlink cash generation at SpaceX.

Execution is the second. Palantir must turn trials into wider deployments. AMD must deliver competitive systems on schedule. SpaceX must manage several costly projects without allowing one to weaken the others.

Investor playbook

Track contracts, shipments, recognised revenue and free cash flow in that order.
Compare growth with the capital required to produce it.
Give guidance more weight than headline profit when expectations already assume rapid expansion.
Check portfolio overlap. Different AI companies may depend on the same customers, budgets and market mood.

Three floors, one foundation

This week, artificial intelligence faces three exams. Can Palantir deepen customer use, can AMD turn commitments into shipped systems, and can SpaceX fund several ambitions without exhausting its strongest cash engine?

The results will not identify one universal winner. They will show where the economics are strongest today. Palantir offers the lightest model, AMD sits in the middle, and SpaceX carries the heaviest machinery. For investors, the useful habit is to follow the cash through every floor of the building. The story may begin with intelligence, but returns still depend on who gets paid, how often, and at what cost.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Theme - Artificial intelligence Artificial Intelligence

Apple and Amazon earnings: strong demand, scarce chips, different rewards

Fri, 31 Jul 2026 08:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Strong demand helped both companies, but supply and execution shaped the market reaction.
Amazon showed clearer returns from artificial intelligence spending, while Apple faced shortages and slower services growth.
The market rewards visible returns on investment and punishes bottlenecks that delay sales or weaken margins.

On 30 July 2026, Apple and Amazon reported strong quarters and received very different verdicts. Amazon’s shares rose in late trading, while Apple’s fell.

Both companies reported healthy demand. Amazon showed that its huge artificial intelligence spending is feeding faster cloud growth. Apple showed strong iPhone and Mac sales, but warned that component shortages would restrict future growth.

One shortage, two business models

Apple sells devices and then earns further revenue from services such as the App Store, iCloud and Apple Music. Amazon runs a large retail platform, but most of its operating profit comes from Amazon Web Services, or AWS, which rents computing power to businesses.

Both companies depend on scarce chips, memory and data-centre equipment. Yet the same shortage affects them differently.

Amazon buys this equipment to create capacity that customers can rent repeatedly. Apple needs many of the same components to manufacture products that consumers buy once, even if those devices later support valuable services.

Amazon can show rising demand for the capacity it is building. Apple risks delaying sales when it cannot make enough devices. A shortage is easier to tolerate when customers are already queuing to rent the finished infrastructure.

Amazon shows the receipt

AWS revenue grew 37% from a year earlier, its fifth consecutive quarter of faster growth. Amazon also delivered solid growth in online retail and advertising.

The company raised expected 2026 capital spending to 220 billion USD. Capital spending is money used for long-term assets such as data centres, chips and warehouses. Most of the increase will support artificial intelligence infrastructure.

That spending pushed free cash flow below zero over the past twelve months. Free cash flow is the cash left after running the business and funding long-term investments. Normally, that would worry investors. This time, faster AWS growth suggested that the money is not merely disappearing into a very expensive building site.

The lesson also applies to Microsoft, Alphabet and the wider artificial intelligence supply chain. Large spending plans receive a warmer response when growth, demand and profits improve alongside them.

Apple’s quarter was better than its forecast

Apple’s reported quarter was strong. Total revenue grew 16%, iPhone revenue rose 22% and Mac revenue increased 29%. Demand for its main products remains healthy.

The concern was what comes next. Apple expects revenue growth of 9% to 11% in the September quarter, below the more than 12% growth expected by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Shortages are affecting processors and memory, while services growth is expected to slow.

This matters because Apple relies on two engines. Hardware brings users into the ecosystem. Services then create recurring revenue from that installed base. Strong device sales help, but weaker services growth reduces the quality of the mix.

Apple also shows that a lighter artificial intelligence spending strategy offers no complete shelter from the boom. It may build fewer data centres than its peers, but it still competes for many of the same chips and memory components. It avoided one large bill, only to meet the shortage at another door.

Risks to watch

For Amazon, the main risk is that spending continues to rise faster than cloud revenue. Investors should watch AWS growth, capacity use and whether free cash flow begins to recover.

For Apple, warning signs include longer delivery times, further product price increases and weaker services growth. Persistent shortages could delay sales, while higher prices may test consumer demand.

Across the sector, memory prices remain important. If costs stay high, hardware makers face margin pressure, while cloud companies may need more spending to deliver the same capacity.

Investor playbook

Separate demand from delivery. Strong orders matter less when supply cannot reach customers.
Track spending against revenue growth, not spending alone.
Watch recurring revenue quality, especially services, cloud and advertising.
Diversify across beneficiaries and customers of the same infrastructure cycle.

The physical bill behind digital growth

Apple and Amazon sell very different things, but their results point to the same reality. Artificial intelligence is not floating quietly in the cloud. It requires chips, memory, electricity, buildings and careful execution.

Amazon received credit because its spending produced faster cloud growth. Apple received less patience because shortages weakened the outlook and services lost momentum. Neither reaction guarantees what happens next.

For investors, the useful question is not which company spends more. It is whether management can turn scarce physical resources into durable customer value and rising cash generation. The digital economy still runs on software, but somebody must first find the parts, build the machines and pay the electricity bill.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles Theme - Artificial intelligence UKMustRead

The FX Trader: USD kicks off bear move as USDJPY intervention weighs.

Fri, 31 Jul 2026 07:10:00 Z

Biggest USDJPY move in over two years.

The latest

FOMC: dovish or clueless? Many observers, including this one, were scratching their heads in the wake of the FOMC meeting, in which Warsh continues to flex confidence on the determination of the Fed to fight inflation, but is not willing to pull the lever on a hike or indicate the Fed’s future plans to do so. At the same time, Warsh claimed that higher Treasury yields were contributing to further policy tightening. At the end of the day, since the FOMC failed to hike, the market was forced into a dovish read and into marking down forward policy-path expectations, even as some noted that the language mix in the press conference was quite hawkish. This sent the US dollar lower, with the trouble now in sorting through how “clean” the move is when heavy USDJPY intervention is afoot. There was little price action around the release of the June PCE inflation data yesterday, where the core measure came in at 0.1% MoM versus 0.2% expected, though the YoY gauge was 3.3% as expected, down from May’s 3.4%.

Bottom line: We’ll follow the price action as the US dollar has now rolled over and could trend as long as US Treasury yields remain orderly. Some key levels supporting an extension of the US dollar move lower are the 1.1500 area in EURUSD and 0.7000 in AUDUSD, and perhaps the overnight highs in USDJPY ahead of 161.00.

Bank of Japan “hawkish hold” in the new policy statement. The new Bank of Japan policy statement is a hawkish upgrade of the prior one, as upside risks to CPI were noted—even as near-term CPI forecasts were lowered slightly—and the language on growth sounded more confident. There was one hawkish dissenter. Still, Japan’s rates were quiet on this release, only marginally higher than before the meeting, with the next hike not fully priced even through the October BoJ meeting.

Bottom line: Some are dubbing this BoJ meeting a hawkish hold, but there was no significant upgrade to policy-path expectations in the wake of the statement, with Governor Ueda speaking at the press conference as these words are being written. So, there may be some room to expand JPY upside within the trading range of the last couple of months, but a more determined rally might require more dramatic policy steps—for example, soft capital controls via more explicit GPIF mandates on allocations for investment in Japanese assets—a far more hawkish BoJ than what we are seeing today, coordinated intervention, or a dramatic reversal lower in US Treasury yields.

Chart focus: USDJPY.
The massive apparent intervention punched USDJPY lower in its biggest intraday move since December 2023, when a hawkish BoJ surprise drove the move. The pair crossed into the critical 158.00–160.00 zone without tarrying long, as the typical post-intervention backfilling quickly took the price action back above 160.00 around the Bank of Japan meeting, which did little to alter forward expectations for BoJ policy. Still, shorts might be emboldened here for an expansion of the downside range towards 155.00 now that Japanese officialdom is mobilising more forcefully against the weaker JPY, as noted above. A move towards the 152.00 area—the range lows of this year—or lower would likely require signs of coordinated intervention with the US or a significant reversal of the recent rise in long US Treasury yields. Resistance above the overnight high of 160.88 arguably extends towards 162.00. Note that this is the third major attempt to punch through the Ichimoku cloud level this year - the January attempt "succeeded" but did kick off a sustained trend, while the April-May episode failed to see a daily close below the cloud.

Source: Saxo

Odds and ends: Bank of England, end of CHF sell-off?
The Bank of England read dovish, but sterling ended the day firmer after an initial modest sell-off. Odds for a hike at the September BoE meeting dropped despite the three hawkish dissenters, as Governor Bailey said that the MPC is not getting closer to hiking rates.

The Swiss franc was just getting interesting as a carry-trade funding-currency alternative to the Japanese yen when the official JPY intervention spoiled this development. Is this a sign that much of the Swiss weakness of late was expressed in USDCHF trades? In any case, the CHF weakness is no more, and the USDCHF rally looks critically wounded until proven otherwise.

Week ahead
The week ahead will be about the wait for the latest US labour-market report next Friday. Other data in the interim, including the ISMs, will move US yields and influence the degree to which this US dollar sell-off extends. There is plenty of room for about a 2% extension in broad US dollar weakness without sparking much drama on the charts.

FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.
Note: If unfamiliar with the FX Board, please see a video tutorial for understanding and using the FX Board.

The JPY momentum shift on official intervention is the chief driver across the FX Board, with the two-day positive shift of 4.9 in broad JPY readings highly unusual and exaggerated by our volatility adjustments, as the market was quiet heading into this huge move. The intervention hit a US dollar that was already weakening post-FOMC the hardest. Note the echo strengthening of the CHF.

Table: NEW FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.

The first USD pairs are already rolling over to indicate new potential bearish USD trends, including a flip to positive in AUDUSD and GBPUSD on the close yesterday, although USDCAD was an early mover the prior day. EURUSD threatens a flip to positive on today’s close, while USDJPY needs to hold another session or two to move into negative trending mode.

John J. Hardy

Global Head of Macro Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Forex Highlighted articles Trump Version 2 - Traders FR US Actualites et Analyses EURUSD USDJPY UKMustRead

Asia Market Quick Take – 31 July, 2026

Fri, 31 Jul 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 31 July, 2026

Key points:

Macro: Trump announces Gaza peace deal; US Core PCE below forecasts
Equities: US equities soar overnight
FX: JPY jumps over 3% on suspected intervention; dollar softens broadly across FX
Commodities: Oil on track for 23% monthly gain and copper rallies
Fixed income: Yield curve continues to steepen as long end remains high

------------------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

Trump announced a deal for the full disarmament of Hamas and other armed groups in Gaza, with the territory to be placed under a new Palestinian government, marking a potential breakthrough.
Markets suspect Tokyo intervened again to support the yen ahead of today’s BOJ decision, after Nikkei reported official FX action and US officials requested dollar–yen quotes. Finance Minister Katayama has signaled readiness to act, as the yen recently hit a 40-year low on high energy costs, fiscal concerns, and wide rate differentials. The BOJ is widely expected to keep rates unchanged after its June hike.
Japan’s retail sales rose 0.5% y/y in June, down sharply from May’s revised 5.0% and below the 3.1% forecast, the weakest since February and signalling softer consumption. Month-on-month, sales fell 4.1%, the first decline in four months and the biggest since April 2021.
Tokyo core CPI rose 1.9% y/y in July, up from 1.6% and above the 1.7% forecast, the fastest since January but still below the BoJ’s 2% target. The BoJ’s preferred core measure (ex fresh food and energy) climbed to 2.0%, its highest in four months, reinforcing June’s 25 bp rate hike to the highest level since 1995.
Real US personal spending rose 0.4% m/m in June, matching May. Goods outlays accelerated to 0.7%, led by vehicles, energy, and clothing, while services rose 0.3%, with stronger recreation and financial services offsetting softer gains in dining, accommodation, and housing.
US initial jobless claims rose to 197,000 in the week ending July 25, up 9,000 but still below the 200,000 forecast. Continuing claims fell to 1.782 million, the lowest in over a month, indicating a still-strong labor market.
US PCE fell 0.1% m/m in June after a 0.5% rise in May, with goods prices down 0.6% and services up 0.1%. Core PCE rose 0.1%, below the 0.2% forecast. Year-on-year, headline PCE slowed to 3.7% and core to 3.3%, both as expected.
US GDP grew at a 1.5% annualized rate in Q2 2026, down from 2.1% in Q1 and below the 2.1% forecast. Business investment cooled, structures contracted again, and government spending fell, while net trade and inventories dragged on growth. Consumer spending was a bright spot, accelerating to 3.2%.
BoE kept the Bank Rate at 3.75% in a 6–3 vote, versus expectations of a 7–2 split. It warned that higher energy prices could push inflation up later this year and said upside risks to inflation have increased, while noting that Middle East developments could still materially change the outlook.

Equities:

US — The S&P 500 surged 1.7% to 7,437.63 on Thursday, its best day since June 11, snapping a sharp Wednesday selloff. The Nasdaq 100 jumped 3.4% — its best session since March 31 — ending a six-day losing streak. The Dow rose 1.2% to 52,208.06. Microsoft soared 16%, its best day since October 2008, adding a record ~$450 billion in market cap in a single session after its Azure cloud segment grew 43% y/y. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 9.2%, driven by a recovery in memory chip names (Micron+18.3%, SanDisk +26%). After hours: Amazon jumped ~9% after AWS net sales grew 37% ex-FX, well ahead of the 31.3% estimate. Apple fell ~7% after guiding Q4 revenue growth of 9%–11%, below the 12.1% consensus, citing component supply shortages.
EU — European equities advanced on Thursday's peak earnings day. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.8% to 649.95, led by miners and banks. ASML gained 5.7% and Infineon surged 9.2% on the DAX (+0.6% to 25,612). The CAC 40 rose 0.9% to 8,485.64. Schneider Electric jumped 11% after raising guidance, while Rolls-Royce gained 6% on a second outlook upgrade. Sanofi was a notable laggard. The FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% to 10,897.27 — pulling back from an intraday record high of 10,979.60 — as AstraZeneca fell 3.2% and Rentokil tumbled 20.6%.
Asia — Asian equities are surging at the open on Friday, led by a dramatic reversal in Korean tech. The Kospi has opened approximately 14% higher, last seen around 6,354–6,386, with SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics both up more than 25%, rebounding from a brutal three-day selloff that had taken the index roughly 40% off its June peak. The Nikkei 225 is up 5% to 64,938, with the Topix gaining 2%, though Daiichi Sankyo fell 5.8% after a Jefferies downgrade. The MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index is up 1.5% to 260.67. Nasdaq-100 futures are extending gains, up ~0.7%. HK, STI and broader Southeast Asian markets are yet to fully open at time of writing, though the broader AI infrastructure rally is expected to lift the region.

Earnings this week:

Friday — ExxonMobil, Moderna, AbbVie, Chevron, Kioxia

FX:

USD weakened for a fifth straight session on July 30, pressured by the Fed’s hold, softer PCE data, the US Dollar Spot Index fell about 0.4% on Wednesday, its largest two-week drop, and extended losses into Thursday.
USDJPY dropped as much as 3.3% intraday to 157.98 — its biggest move since December 2023 — and closed near 159.50, marking the largest one-day percentage decline since January 2023, though analysts still see a break below 155 as needed to shift long‑term yen sentiment.
Broader G10 FX rallied against the dollar, with NZD and AUD leading gains; AUDJPY briefly hit an almost four‑month low near 110.92 before rebounding to around 112.40, while AUDUSD climbed to roughly 0.7030, up about 1% in New York.
EURUSD was additionally underpinned by stronger Eurozone Q2 GDP, while CAD lagged as oil prices fell.
The yuan strengthened to its firmest level since February 2023, with USDCNY touching 6.7550 onshore amid dollar weakness and ongoing PBOC support.

Commodities:

Brent crude traded above $89 a barrel, on pace for its biggest monthly advance since March, as the ongoing US-Iran conflict continues to strain supply through the Strait of Hormuz. WTI was near $84 a barrel. The White House's Kevin Hassett said the US may extend measures — including the Jones Act waiver — to keep downward pressure on oil prices if needed.
Gold was near $4,100 an ounce in early Friday trading, holding a two-day gain and on track for its first monthly gain since February. The metal has been supported by the weaker dollar following Japan's FX intervention and the Fed's decision to hold rates, though it remains 5.8% lower year-to-date.
LME 3-month copper closed $222 higher at $13,803 a ton on Thursday, with the cash-to-3-month spread rising to its highest since January 2026. LME copper inventories fell 6,900 tons to 255,400 tons.

Fixed income:

The 2s10s and 5s30s spreads extended their post-Fed steepening on Thursday. The 10-year yield fell 1.1bps to 4.671% and the 1-year fell 1.2bps to 4.027%, as the short end drew support from the softer PCE print and a dovish Bank of England statement. The 5s30s spread widened to 82.3bps from 79.5bps. A $13 million options trade targeted the 10-year yield rising to 4.8% within weeks.
Schroders, which oversees $1.1 trillion, is increasing bearish Treasury positions and rotating into front-end government bonds in Australia, the UK, and the eurozone, citing doubts over the Fed's ability to control inflation. Japan's 2-year JGB auction on Thursday saw a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.63, well below the 12-month average of 3.81, as rate hike expectations weigh on shorter-dated JGBs.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance. The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

Wishy washy Fed Chair Warsh vibe punches sentiment in the gut.

Thu, 30 Jul 2026 09:40:00 Z

US 30-year yield hits 19-year high, spooking stocks.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.

Questions and comments, please!

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

Microsoft and Meta earnings: big spending, two very different market verdicts

Thu, 30 Jul 2026 07:50:00 Z

Key takeaways

Microsoft shows clearer AI revenue through Azure and Copilot, while Meta still depends mainly on advertising.
Investors tolerate heavy spending when demand, contracts and cash generation remain visible.
The wider technology sector now faces a tougher test: build capacity, but prove customers will pay.

On 29 July 2026, Microsoft and Meta reported strong core businesses and enormous artificial intelligence (AI) spending. The market then delivered two different verdicts. Microsoft rose sharply after hours, while Meta fell.

Both are building the digital factories required for AI. The difference is what investors can see coming out of them today. Microsoft can point to cloud sales, paid software users and contracted future revenue. Meta can point to stronger advertising, better recommendations and promising products, but the direct financial return remains less visible.

The AI trade has entered a new phase. Spending is no longer impressive by itself. The market now wants receipts.

Microsoft already has a checkout counter

Microsoft sells software and computing power to companies. Azure, its cloud platform, lets customers rent storage, computing capacity and AI tools instead of building their own systems.

Azure grew at its fastest pace in four years, while demand still exceeds available supply. Microsoft 365 Copilot, the AI assistant added to products such as Excel, Teams and Word, also passed 30 million paid users.

Importantly, the latest increase in Microsoft’s contracted backlog came from customers outside the largest AI laboratories. This suggests demand is broadening beyond a few headline clients.

The company is still spending heavily on chips, data centres and networking equipment. Capital expenditure means money used to build assets that support the business for years. Yet investors could connect that spending to faster cloud growth and more paying Copilot users. The bill is large, but the restaurant appears busy.

Meta has the audience, but a less readable receipt

Meta owns Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp. It earns almost all its money from advertising, using AI to recommend content and help advertisers reach the right people.

That engine remains powerful. Revenue grew strongly as Meta showed more advertisements and charged more for them. AI is already helping keep users engaged and make advertisements more useful.

The concern sits below the revenue line. Costs rose much faster than sales, free cash flow fell close to zero, and Meta lifted the lower end of its annual spending range. Free cash flow is the cash left after running the business and paying for long-term investments.

Meta is exploring subscriptions, paid access to models and potentially selling computing power. These ideas could become important. For now, advertising pays most of the construction bill.

This explains the market reaction. Microsoft showed a clearer bridge from spending to revenue. Meta asked investors to trust that the bridge is being built.

Source: Saxo Bank analysis based on Microsoft and Meta company results and Bloomberg reporting, 29 July 2026.

The sector’s new dividing line

The results support suppliers of AI infrastructure. Strong demand benefits chipmakers, memory producers, networking companies, cooling specialists, electrical equipment makers and data-centre builders. Microsoft’s capacity shortage suggests the physical build-out is not finished.

But the largest technology companies now face a higher standard. Alphabet, Amazon and others must show that each new data centre creates profitable demand, not merely more capacity.

Software companies face a similar test. Adding an AI button is easy. Convincing customers to pay more, use the product regularly and remain loyal is harder. Microsoft’s paid Copilot growth is therefore more useful than a colourful demonstration.

Meta’s advertising improvements matter too, but investors will increasingly separate indirect benefits from new revenue streams. Better recommendations can strengthen an existing business. A paying customer offers clearer proof that a new business exists.

Risks behind the servers

The first risk is overbuilding. Data centres take years to complete, and several companies may add capacity together, turning shortage into excess.

The second is weaker profitability. Electricity, specialist staff, networking and depreciation remain expensive. Revenue can grow while cash generation weakens.

Meta also faces legal and regulatory costs, while Microsoft remains exposed to large customers changing their spending plans. Warning signs include slower cloud bookings, weak software adoption and capital spending rising faster than revenue.

Investor playbook

Track revenue linked to AI, not only management descriptions of future opportunity.
Compare capital spending with free cash flow, margins and contracted demand over several quarters.
Separate infrastructure suppliers from customers, since the same spending boom creates different risks.
Keep position sizes sensible when valuations already assume years of rapid growth.

A large bill needs a clear receipt

Microsoft and Meta are both spending as if AI will reshape the economy. They may be right. Yet this quarter shows that investors no longer reward ambition alone. Microsoft currently offers clearer evidence: customers rent its computing power, sign long contracts and pay for Copilot.

Meta has a vast audience and a strong advertising machine, but it still needs to show how newer AI products become durable cash flows. The lesson is not that one strategy wins and the other fails. It is that patience has become conditional. In this phase of the boom, the market will still fund the factory, but it wants to see what leaves the loading bay.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Theme - Artificial intelligence Artificial Intelligence

Peak SK Hynix madness?

Wed, 29 Jul 2026 10:58:00 Z

Memory chip drama in South Korea: it's about leveraged positions, not fundamentals..

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.

Questions and comments, please!

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

SK hynix’s record quarter was not enough. Here is what the chip sector heard

Wed, 29 Jul 2026 08:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

SK hynix confirms that memory remains a critical bottleneck for artificial intelligence infrastructure.
Record results disappointed because expectations and capital spending had moved even faster.
Long-term contracts improve visibility, but rising supply means the memory cycle has not disappeared.

The fastest artificial intelligence chip is not very useful when it spends its day waiting for data. That makes memory, once the less glamorous part of a computer, one of the artificial intelligence boom’s main bottlenecks.

On 29 July 2026, SK hynix showed what happens when a bottleneck gains pricing power. The South Korean chipmaker reported record quarterly revenue and operating profit. Yet both missed demanding forecasts, and the shares fell sharply. For investors, the contrast matters more than the red screen: the business remains exceptionally strong, but expectations had moved close to perfection.

A record quarter with a footnote

Operating profit rose more than sixfold from a year earlier, helped by higher memory prices and strong sales to artificial intelligence servers. The result was extraordinary. It was also below Bloomberg consensus.

Markets do not grade companies against last year. They grade them against what investors already paid to expect.

The net profit figure needs more care. It exceeded operating profit because a large investment-related gain, linked to SK hynix’s holding in Japanese memory producer Kioxia, boosted the quarter. That strengthens the balance sheet but says little about how profitably SK hynix manufactured and sold its chips.

The cleaner measures are operating profit and cash generated by the core business. This is a useful habit when reading any earnings report. Impressive accounting profit can occasionally arrive wearing borrowed clothes.

The negative market reaction therefore says less about collapsing demand and more about elevated expectations. After a powerful artificial intelligence rally, “very good” can become insufficient when investors are positioned for “even better”.

Memory moves to the front

High-bandwidth memory, or HBM, is stacked memory placed close to an artificial intelligence processor. It feeds data quickly, helping expensive processors spend more time calculating and less time waiting.

SK hynix began shipping its next-generation HBM4 products during the quarter and plans to increase production during the second half of 2026.

Competition is no longer only about producing more memory. Suppliers must deliver the right chips, at the right speed, with reliable quality and advanced packaging. Customers also need confidence that enough chips will arrive on schedule.

That raises the value of engineering skill and manufacturing reliability, not just factory size. It also creates a stronger competitive position for suppliers that can develop products alongside large customers.

SK hynix has completed long-term agreement discussions with around ten customers. Some contracts include deposits and pricing structures designed to support delivery.

These agreements may reduce part of the violent pricing swings that once defined memory chips. Micron is following a similar path, suggesting an industry shift rather than a one-company experiment. Long-term contracts make future demand easier to plan, although they can also limit the benefit when market prices rise suddenly.

The supply cycle answers back

Strong pricing eventually attracts new factories. SK hynix expects 2026 capital spending in the high 40 trillion KRW range and is accelerating new capacity.

That supports semiconductor-equipment and advanced-packaging suppliers. It also means today’s shortage is already planting the seeds of tomorrow’s greater supply. Memory cycles rarely die. They merely take longer lunch breaks.

For Samsung Electronics and Micron, the results confirm strong sector demand. For Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices and cloud groups such as Microsoft, Amazon and Meta Platforms, they highlight a less comfortable point: memory is becoming a larger part of the cost and availability equation.

A powerful processor without enough memory is like a sports car with a drinking straw for a fuel pipe.

The effects also reach computers and smartphones. SK hynix says some sales are temporarily constrained by limited memory volumes as server products receive priority. When supply loosens, delayed demand may return. The next phase could therefore bring more unit growth but less spectacular pricing.

The catches behind the record

The first risk is slower artificial intelligence infrastructure spending. Warning signs include weaker cloud-company budgets, shorter customer commitments or falling HBM prices.

The second is execution. HBM4 requires difficult manufacturing and packaging, so delays or lower production yields could shift orders towards rivals.

The third is familiar: too much new capacity. Rising inventories, shorter delivery times and more aggressive discounts would suggest that scarcity is fading.

A memory checklist

Separate operating profit from one-off gains before judging business momentum.
Follow cloud spending, memory prices and inventories together.
Diversify across chipmakers, equipment suppliers and end customers.
Treat long-term contracts as better visibility, not protection from cycles.

When waiting becomes expensive

SK hynix’s quarter shows that a record can still disappoint when expectations run ahead of reality. The operational message remains strong: artificial intelligence needs more than processors, and memory has become a strategic part of the system rather than a cheap supporting component. The market message is less comfortable.

High margins attract capital, excellent results attract ambitious forecasts and crowded trades can turn a small miss into a large reaction. Investors do not need to predict the exact peak of the memory cycle. They need to watch demand, contracts, inventories and new supply together. The fastest chip still needs to be fed, but no shortage keeps the kitchen empty forever.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles Theme - Artificial intelligence UKMustRead

Three hyperscalers set to report as AI momentum stocks stumble

Tue, 28 Jul 2026 10:22:00 Z

Earnings bonanza continues, FOMC a head-scratcher.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.

Questions and comments, please!

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

LVMH finds growth again, but luxury’s recovery is wearing unevenly

Tue, 28 Jul 2026 08:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

LVMH’s second-quarter earnings showed a return to growth, but fashion remained weak.
Jewellery remains luxury’s strongest category, while fashion depends more on fresh designs and tourist spending.
Investors should track brand heat, margins and full-price demand, not treat luxury as one trade.

After two difficult years for luxury, LVMH’s second-quarter results offered the first clear sign that conditions may be stabilising. Sales improved and the group’s crucial fashion business returned to growth, but only narrowly. For investors, the message is less “luxury is back” and more “the recovery has started, but customers are still choosing carefully”.

A turn, not a sprint

Fashion and leather goods produces roughly half of LVMH’s revenue and more than two-thirds of its profit from normal operations. A small change here matters more than a larger gain elsewhere.

Sales improved with stronger demand in the United States, better trends in Asia and early interest in Jonathan Anderson’s first Dior designs. Europe was flat, partly because conflict in the Middle East reduced tourist spending. LVMH said group growth would have been about one percentage point stronger without that disruption.

The market still wanted more. Fashion growth came in slightly below Bloomberg expectations, while profit in the division fell during the first half. Currency movements played a role, but the wider lesson is simple: when a highly profitable business slows, modest cost pressure can make profits fall faster than sales.

This was not a bad quarter. It moved from weak to less weak. Markets are rarely famous for applauding that distinction.

Jewellery steals the spotlight

The strongest signal came from watches and jewellery, where LVMH posted double-digit organic growth. Tiffany and Bulgari benefited from established collections. Richemont recently reported even faster growth at Cartier, Van Cleef & Arpels and its other jewellery houses.

Jewellery is currently outperforming fashion, while wines and spirits also delivered a strong recovery. Beauty and accessories were more uneven. Part of jewellery’s strength may be emotional. A ring or bracelet often marks a wedding, anniversary or personal milestone, giving the purchase a lasting purpose. A seasonal handbag faces a tougher test: it must compete with last year’s collection and, in many wardrobes, with a cupboard that is already quite full.

For the sector, this creates a wide gap between winners and laggards. A famous name attracts attention. It cannot force customers to like the new collection.

LVMH H1 2026 — Organic Revenue Growth by Segment: Actual vs. Consensus (%)

Source: Bloomberg, chart generated using ASKB by BloombergAI.

Creativity reaches the income statement

LVMH has refreshed creative leadership across several fashion houses. Dior’s early response is encouraging, but creative change works slowly. Designs must reach stores, attract customers, sell at full price and remain desirable after the launch campaign ends.

Investors can follow three stages: attention, conversion and durability. Store traffic and online interest come first. Sales come next. The real test is whether demand survives beyond one popular bag or runway show.

LVMH also highlighted strong new stores in Beijing and Seoul, while Sephora continued to gain ground. In luxury, the shop is part of what the customer believes they are buying.

Risks behind the velvet curtain

Geopolitical disruption may continue to restrict travel and tourist spending, especially in Europe. China’s improvement may also prove uneven, leaving growth dependent on easier comparisons rather than broad demand.

Execution is the third risk. New designers can revive a brand, but they can also produce expensive applause without enough sales. Warning signs include rising inventories, more discounting, weaker margins and growth concentrated in one product.

Investor playbook

Separate categories. Fashion, jewellery, beauty and spirits can behave differently in the same economy.
Compare sales with margins, the share of revenue retained as operating profit. Full-price growth carries more weight than promotions.
Test the recovery’s quality. Look for local customers, broad product strength and repeat demand.
Diversify across brands and regions. Luxury sales still rise and fall with the economy, even when the handbags are timeless.

The logo is only the beginning

Luxury companies sell dreams, but LVMH’s quarter shows that dreams recover at different speeds. Jewellery is moving quickly, fashion is taking smaller steps, and tourist-dependent markets remain vulnerable to events far beyond the boutique. The useful signal is not that luxury has fully recovered, or that the slowdown is over.

Customers are becoming more selective, which makes execution more important than sector labels. LVMH has turned back towards growth, but the next test is harder: proving that new creativity can produce durable demand without weakening margins. In luxury, the logo opens the door. The product still has to close the sale.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Luxury Goods Theme - Luxury LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton Lvmh

The FX Trader: FOMC uncertainty weighs, market tilting for hawkish outcome.

Tue, 28 Jul 2026 07:45:00 Z

Market on rocky footing with the Warsh-led Fed.

The latest

FOMC on tap with a side of geopolitical distractions. The focus at the start of the week Monday was on the sudden de-escalation of US-Iran hostilities after last Thursday saw a spike in crude oil prices to over USD 100 per barrel in Brent crude. Monday suggested that even an 8-dollar-per-barrel decline in crude oil is only worth about a 0.25% knee-jerk sell-off in the US dollar in the major crosses. So EURUSD consolidated back as high as 1.1418 Monday before rolling back well below 1.1400 again and towards the lows of this month, as the main focus this week remains on the FOMC meeting and whether the Warsh-led Fed will pull the trigger on a rate hike this week—about 35–40% priced as of early European trading hours on Tuesday.

The frustrating angle, with or without a rate move, will be the Fed attempting to avoid providing forward guidance on its future moves, but the market will interpret every little hint regardless. Even if the Fed skips a hike at this meeting, does the market merely assume that it is a timing issue and that we should remain fully priced for a 25-bp hike at the September FOMC meeting? If the Fed does go ahead with the hike on Wednesday, the forward curve will likely shift higher unless the interpretation is somehow that this was an insurance hike until “better” inflation data from Warsh’s task forces are available—although, again, that latter interpretation requires some degree of interpretation of the monetary policy statement and Warsh’s rhetoric at the presser. It all feels a bit treacherous and murky, especially in a low-energy market.

Bottom line: While this Fed is all about “no forward guidance”, the market will still do whatever it can to interpret the Fed’s observations on the quality of the economy and inflation. A rate hike will read initially as a hawkish surprise, just as a pass on moving the rate will see the market reducing the expected hawkish potential of this Fed. The reaction function may be equally large in either direction: the market is leaning towards a hawkish outcome and a stronger US dollar, but it is not fully priced for a rate hike, and some further premium for another hike might have to be added to forward expectations. On the other hand, a pass not only deflates expectations for future rate moves, but also goes against the market “lean”. Another thing to watch for: could Warsh announce that the dot plots or SEP will no longer be published from September onwards?

Bank of Japan signalling important after GPIF moves failed to ignite a JPY rally. The Bank of Japan is not expected to hike the policy rate at this Friday’s meeting, with odds rising to around 30% for a September hike. For the remaining three BoJ meetings of the year after this week’s meeting, through mid-December, 25 basis points of further tightening is priced. It is notable that the front end of Japan’s government bond yield curve perked up considerably last week, rising 7–8 basis points and flattening the yield curve as more tightening was priced. Could the great Japanese yield-curve steepening of the last two years finally be turning lower? With US Treasury yields rising of late, it would take a lot of heavy lifting from the BoJ to make a dent in US-Japan rate spreads.

A key recent development that was somewhat tantalising for hopes of a JPY comeback was the news—first on 10 July from Finance Minister Katayama and later on 17 July via statements from Prime Minister Takaichi—that the government would encourage households and public pension funds, most notably the massive GPIF, to invest more in Japanese assets. The 10 July announcement triggered a one-off JPY rally, but nothing yet suggests that the government is ready to strong-arm the situation. The GPIF president said yesterday that the JPY 293 trillion fund—about USD 1.8 trillion—would manage its assets in the long-term interests of its beneficiaries, which waters down the impact of the earlier official announcements.

Bottom line: As discussed in the look at the USDJPY chart below, the market is not anticipating much from USDJPY this week over the FOMC and BoJ meetings. It will therefore take either a dovish FOMC turn, a considerably hawkish BoJ turn, or both to trigger a significant JPY rally. Still, I am on the lookout for the JPY to rally somewhere in the coming weeks on valuation, firmer government signalling on asset-allocation policies, or both—not to mention the relative normalisation of Japan’s yields versus global peers. Again, technically there is nothing to indicate a turnaround just yet, so let us see where we end the week.

Chart focus: USDJPY
USDJPY may have considerable volatility potential this week in the wake of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday and the Bank of Japan meeting on Friday, although one-week USDJPY options-market implied volatility has only perked up to the middle of the range of the last two months. The US dollar is firmly in the driver’s seat, pulling the pair higher whenever US Treasury yields rise, so a dovish FOMC turn is likely needed as a first step towards any major consolidation in USDJPY in the near term. The Bank of Japan remains ponderous in its rate-normalisation process in the meantime. The first downside level of note is the prior high at 162.84 from the beginning of this month, but a much sharper break lower would be needed even to signal meaningful softening, let alone a reversal of the uptrend.

Source: Saxo

Odds and ends: Bank of England, weak CHF.
We also have a Bank of England meeting this week, where Bailey and company are unlikely to do much to alter the forward rate expectations, which are about 50-50 for a September meeting rate hike as they await the next leg in volatile energy prices and the impact of the new Labour government’s policies. That coming policy mix could be impactful on sterling, which has now consolidated about half of the initial surge higher. Measures announced so far are more symbolic check boxes with little fiscal heft required – the tough stuff lies ahead.

The Swiss franc is working into some interesting levels as EURCHF eyes fresh higher for the year and USDCHF is pushing on 1-year highs. Bloomberg reported, citing unnamed sources, that the SNB is likely to keep its policy rate unchanged through the end of 2027. The CHF-as-funding-currency-for-carry-trades theme has been developing slowly for a while now – could we be in for a sudden acceleration if and when the JPY turns higher?

FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.
Note: If unfamiliar with the FX board, please see a video tutorial for understanding and using the FX Board.

China continues to hold its currency on the strong side of the strong US dollar, if with low volatility. On the weak side, the Swiss franc sticks out together with other policy yield laggards the Japanese yen and the Swedish krona.

Table: NEW FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.

Our trend indicator has slipped into negative territory for GBPUSD as it joins other USD pairs in trending lower versus the greenback, although it still trades fully embedded in the last six months or more of the trading range. Note the preponderance of dark blue coloring in the ATR field for the main individual currency pairs – which means we are in the lowest quintile of trading range volatility of the last 1,000 trading days. This often means we are in treacherous, sluggish territory, awaiting stronger themes to emerge.

John J. Hardy

Global Head of Macro Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Forex Highlighted articles Trump Version 2 - Traders FR US Actualites et Analyses EURUSD USDJPY UKMustRead