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Big Oil earnings: Chevron and Exxon beat, but the barrel did not do all the work

Fri, 01 May 2026 12:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Chevron and Exxon beat expectations, helped by higher oil prices and strong core assets.
Cash returns stayed large, but Chevron trimmed buybacks while Exxon held steady.
The lesson for investors is simple: oil helps, but execution still matters.

Chevron and Exxon Mobil reported first-quarter results on 1 May 2026, and the first lesson is that higher oil prices do not automatically produce a clean victory. They help, of course. Oil companies do not complain when the barrel gets more expensive. But this quarter also came with war disruption, cargo delays, accounting timing effects and weaker pockets in refining and chemicals.

Brent crude settled at 114.01 USD on 30 April 2026, down 3.4%, after touching 126.41 USD earlier in the day. That was the highest level since March 2022, driven by worries around the Iran war and disruption near the Strait of Hormuz. Against that backdrop, Chevron and Exxon both beat earnings expectations, but neither result was as simple as “oil up, profits up”.

The market reaction was muted at the time of writing. Investors welcomed the earnings beats, but the response stayed measured as they looked through war disruption, cargo timing effects and weaker refining pockets.

The beat was real, but the route was messy

Exxon and Chevron both beat expectations, but the story was not simply “oil price up, profits up”. Exxon reported adjusted earnings per share of 1.16 USD, ahead of the 0.96 USD Bloomberg consensus, while revenue and other income reached 85.14 billion USD, also ahead of expectations. Production was broadly in line with expectations at 4.59 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, supported by growth in Guyana and the Permian Basin.

Chevron also came in ahead of expectations, with adjusted earnings of 2.8 billion USD, or 1.41 USD per share. Reported earnings were lower, at 2.2 billion USD, but the operating picture was stronger than the headline suggests. Worldwide production rose 15% from last year, while United States production rose 24%, helped by the Hess acquisition, the Gulf of America and the Permian Basin.

The important point for investors is that both companies showed strength in the parts of the business that matter most over time: production growth, large advantaged assets and cash generation. But the quarter also came with a few oil-stained footnotes.

The main complication was what both companies call timing effects. In plain English, these are accounting mismatches between financial contracts and the physical oil or gas cargoes that have not yet completed delivery. The loss appears in the accounts now, while the related physical transaction may show up later. It is the sort of detail that makes energy accounting a niche hobby, and not a particularly social one.

For Exxon, these unfavourable timing effects were 3.9 billion USD. For Chevron, they were around 2.9 billion USD. That helps explain why reported profit looked weaker than the underlying business in some areas. It also explains the measured market reaction: investors liked the earnings beats, but they still had to look through accounting noise, war-related disruption and weaker refining pockets before giving full credit.

Cash return remains the anchor

Big Oil is no longer valued only on how much it can produce. It is also judged on what it gives back to shareholders and how much it reinvests in future production. That makes cash flow the key exam paper.

Exxon generated 2.7 billion USD of free cash flow. Free cash flow means cash left after running the business and investing in long-term assets. Exxon returned 9.2 billion USD to shareholders, including 4.3 billion USD in dividends and 4.9 billion USD in buybacks. It also kept its 2026 buyback plan at 20 billion USD.

Chevron returned 6.0 billion USD to shareholders, with 3.5 billion USD in dividends and 2.5 billion USD in buybacks. That was still a large return, but the buyback was lower than the previous quarter. Some investors may have hoped for an increase given the oil-price surge. Chevron’s answer was more cautious: higher prices help, but one strong quarter does not change the capital-return playbook. In energy, discipline is not glamorous, but it tends to age better than enthusiasm.

That caution matters. Management does not want to raise buybacks based only on a short-term spike in commodity prices. For long-term investors, that is not necessarily bad. A company that treats temporary oil prices as permanent income can end up with a very expensive habit.

Production strength, refining pain

The clearest operational bright spot for both companies was production from advantaged assets. Exxon continues to benefit from Guyana and the Permian Basin. Chevron is getting a visible lift from Hess, which brings exposure to Guyana, and from growth in the United States.

The weak spot was downstream. Downstream means refining, marketing and selling fuels and other products. Chevron’s downstream business posted a loss of 817 million USD, versus a profit of 325 million USD a year earlier. International downstream was especially weak, hurt by lower refined-product margins, timing effects and higher transport costs.

Exxon’s energy products segment also reported an adjusted loss of 556 million USD, compared with a profit of 827 million USD a year earlier. Chemicals were soft too, with adjusted net income down 60% from last year. This matters because integrated oil companies are supposed to have several engines. When oil production is strong but refining and chemicals are weak, the machine still moves, but not every cylinder fires.

Risks

The first risk is geopolitical. Exxon has more Middle East exposure than Chevron, and management said a full second-quarter closure of the Strait of Hormuz would cut upstream production by about 750,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. That is not a footnote. That is a large operational hole.

The second risk is oil-price reversal. A higher crude price supports cash flow, but it can fall quickly if supply routes reopen, demand weakens or traders decide the panic cupboard is overstocked.

The third risk is cost discipline. Higher prices can hide cost inflation, project delays and weaker refining economics. Investors should watch capital spending, production costs, refining margins and whether timing effects really unwind as companies expect.

Investor playbook

Separate reported profit from underlying cash flow. The two can diverge sharply in volatile oil markets.
Watch buyback discipline. Higher crude prices should not automatically mean higher repurchases.
Compare production growth with capital spending. More barrels matter only if returns stay attractive.
Treat energy as a portfolio diversifier, not a one-way bet on geopolitics.

The barrel shouts, cash answers

Chevron and Exxon gave investors a useful reminder: Big Oil is both simpler and more complicated than it looks. Higher crude prices help, but they do not remove operational risk, accounting noise, refining weakness or geopolitical disruption. The better question is not whether oil prices rose this quarter. They did.

The better question is whether management converted a volatile market into durable cash, sensible investment and disciplined shareholder returns. On that test, both companies did enough to reassure the market, but not enough to end the debate. The barrel made the noise. The cash register still gets the final word.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles Quarterly earnings

Apple’s earnings give investors something rare: a boring surprise

Fri, 01 May 2026 06:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Apple beat expectations as iPhone demand, services and China improved together.
The June-quarter outlook was strong, but memory costs and Mac shortages remain pressure points.
The bigger debate is whether Apple can turn artificial intelligence into everyday usefulness.

Apple’s latest earnings were not a revolution. That is partly the point. For a company of Apple’s size, a solid quarter can be more useful than a dramatic one. Investors wanted proof that the core business still has life, that customers are still upgrading, and that the company can move into a new leadership era without dropping the iPhone in the hallway.

Apple reported fiscal second-quarter results after the US market close on 30 April 2026. Revenue rose 17% year on year to 111.2 billion USD, while diluted earnings per share rose 22% to 2.01 USD. The company also guided for June-quarter revenue growth of 14% to 17%, well above market expectations. Apple shares closed at 271.35 USD, then rose 2.4% in after-hours trading as investors welcomed the stronger outlook.

Apple did not need to prove it is the most exciting artificial intelligence story in the market. It needed to prove that its installed base, products and services still behave like a high-quality machine. This quarter did that.

The iPhone still pays the bills

Apple makes consumer electronics and digital services, with the iPhone at the centre of its ecosystem. That ecosystem matters because each device can lead to services, accessories, storage subscriptions, payments, entertainment and future upgrades.

The iPhone remains the main engine. iPhone revenue rose to 57 billion USD, helped by strong demand for the iPhone 17 family. For investors, this matters because the iPhone is not just a product. It is Apple’s front door. Once customers enter, many stay because their photos, apps, payments, music, messages and devices all speak the same language.

That is Apple’s great strength. It does not need every new product cycle to feel like a moon landing. It needs the upgrade cycle to stay healthy enough, and the services layer to keep deepening. This quarter suggests both are still working.

China was also important. Greater China revenue rose to 20.5 billion USD, a strong rebound in a market where Apple has faced tougher local competition. That does not remove the risk, but it shows the brand still has pull when the product cycle is right.

Services are the quiet compounding machine

Services revenue reached 31 billion USD, up from 26.6 billion USD a year earlier. This segment includes the App Store, iCloud, Apple Music, Apple TV, Apple Pay and other subscriptions or digital services.

This is the calmer part of the story. Hardware can be lumpy because people do not buy a new phone every Tuesday, thankfully for household budgets. Services can be more regular because they sit on top of Apple’s huge installed base of active devices.

For long-term investors, that mix matters. A company that sells one-off products can grow, but its profits may swing with each product cycle. A company that also earns repeat service revenue can become more resilient. It is one reason Apple has looked less like a pure hardware company over time and more like a consumer ecosystem with hardware at the gate.

Apple also announced a dividend increase and a new share repurchase authorisation of up to 100 billion USD. Buybacks can support earnings per share by reducing the share count, but they are not magic. They work best when the business keeps producing cash and management stays disciplined on price. Capital allocation remains one of Apple’s quiet strengths under Tim Cook.

The next boss inherits a powerful machine, not a finished one

The quarter comes just weeks after Apple said Tim Cook will become executive chairman and John Ternus, currently senior vice president of hardware engineering, will become chief executive officer on 1 September 2026. That gives the results a larger meaning. This was not only an earnings report. It was an early read on what Ternus inherits.

The machine is strong, but it is not challenge-free. Apple warned that memory-chip costs will rise significantly this quarter. Memory chips help devices store and process data, and the recent shortage has pushed costs higher across the technology sector. Apple also said Mac shortages may last several months, especially for products such as the Mac mini, Mac Studio and MacBook Neo.

That creates a useful investor lesson. Strong demand is good, but supply constraints can still limit sales and squeeze margins. In plain English, customers may want the product, but Apple still needs enough parts to put it in a box.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the other major question. Apple has lagged some rivals in flashy AI features, and investors are waiting to see whether it can make AI useful inside everyday devices. Apple’s advantage is that it controls the hardware, software and services together. Its challenge is that the market now wants proof, not poetry.

Risks: watch costs, China and the AI timetable

The main near-term risk is margin pressure from higher memory costs and supply shortages. If Apple cannot offset those costs with pricing, product mix or efficiency, profits could feel the pinch.

China remains another key watch point. The rebound was encouraging, but local competition and political tension can change quickly. Investors should monitor whether demand remains strong after the initial iPhone 17 cycle.

The third risk is AI execution. Apple does not need to win the press conference. It needs to improve the user experience. Delays to Siri or weak adoption of AI features would keep the debate alive.

Investor playbook

Watch services growth. It shows whether Apple’s ecosystem keeps deepening beyond device sales.
Track gross margin. Rising memory costs are the clearest pressure point for the next quarter.
Follow China revenue. It is an early signal for global iPhone demand and competitive strength.
Judge AI by usefulness, not slogans. The key test is whether customers notice better daily features.

A steady quarter, with a harder exam ahead

Apple’s quarter gave investors a useful answer, but not the final one. The old engine still runs: iPhone demand is strong, services keep growing, China improved, and cash generation remains powerful. That is why the after-hours reaction was positive. But the next chapter will be harder.

Apple now has to manage higher component costs, supply shortages, a leadership handover and the market’s impatience around artificial intelligence. The company does not need to become the loudest AI storyteller. It needs to make the technology feel simple, private and useful. In true Apple fashion, the best result would be when the hard work disappears into the product.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles Quarterly earnings

Asia Market Quick Take – 30 April, 2026

Thu, 30 Apr 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 30 April, 2026

Key points:

Macro: Fed holds rates; Trump not lifting blockade till nuclear deal secured
Equities: AMZN, GOOG, MSFT rises after earnings; META sinks on higher capex
FX: Dollar hits mid‑April high as Fed splits; JPY weakens past 160
Commodities: Brent +7% to >$119.50, highest since June 2022
Fixed income: US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.43%, highest in over nine months

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

The Fed left rates unchanged amid growing internal dissent, with four officials opposing the decision. Two-year Treasury yields jumped 11 basis points, the biggest Fed-day move since 2022. Jerome Powell said he will stay on the Board after his chair term ends and remain through the ongoing criminal investigation.
Trump told Axios he won’t lift the naval blockade of Iranian ports until he secures a nuclear deal with Tehran, extending the standoff disrupting energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Japan’s retail sales rose 1.7% YoY in March 2026, beating the 0.8% forecast and rebounding from a 0.1% drop, with autos and other goods leading gains. Month-on-month, sales grew 1.3% after falling 2.0% in February.
The BoC held its policy rate at 2.25% in April 2026, offering no clear guidance amid geopolitical uncertainty. Inflation rose on higher energy prices from Middle East tensions, but broader effects remain limited and expectations anchored. The BoC projects GDP growth of 1.2% in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027.
US durable goods orders rose 0.8% in March 2026 to $318.9 billion, beating the 0.5% forecast and rebounding from a 1.2% drop. Despite war-related energy and shipping disruptions, orders gained across computers and electronics (3.7%), machinery, primary metals, electrical equipment, and transportation.
Germany’s CPI rose to 2.9% YoY in April 2026, up from 2.7% and just below the 3% forecast, driven by a 10.1% jump in energy. Core inflation fell to 2.3%, the lowest since June 2021, and the EU-harmonized rate also hit 2.9%, above the ECB’s 2% target.

Equities:

US: S&P 500 Index ended Wednesday little changed at 7,135.95, as a divided Federal Reserve held rates steady and signaled the war in Iran is clouding the economic outlook. Nasdaq 100 rose 0.6% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%. In after-hours trading, Alphabet shares rose 7.1% after reporting quarterly revenue and profit that beat projections, fuelled by strong growth in its cloud computing business. Meta shares plunged 7% on rising concerns over AI spending after the company raised its full-year capital expenditures outlook to $125 billion to $145 billion. Qualcomm shares jumped over 12% after the company signalled a bottom in China handset demand and pointed to growing traction with a hyperscaler customer. Amazon gained 2.7% after AWS sales grew 28%, beating the estimated 25% increase driven by strong enterprise spending. KLA Corp shares fell 8% in extended trading after the company reported third-quarter results and provided a fourth-quarter outlook.
EU: European stocks closed lower, with the Stoxx 600 Index falling 0.6% on Wednesday. The prospect of a prolonged naval blockade of Iranian ports soured risk sentiment amid mixed earnings results. GSK Plc contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 6.3%, while Konecranes Oyj had the largest drop, falling 13.5%. The FTSE 100 closed down 119.68 points, or 1.2%, at 10,213.11, held back by falls for drugs firms GSK and AstraZeneca. The DAX fell 0.3% to 23,954.56 in Frankfurt, dropping to the lowest closing level since April 13. UBS shares gained after traders helped the Swiss firm beat estimates to keep it on track to lift payouts this year.
Asia: Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 1.7% to close at 26,111.84 on Wednesday, rebounding as policy signals from China's top leadership lifted sentiment alongside improving corporate earnings. Alibaba Group Holding Ltd contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.2%, while China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd had the largest increase, rising 8.9%. South Korea's Kospi Index rose 0.8% to 6,690.90 in Seoul. Samsung chip unit posted a 48x profit surge on AI memory demand, beating estimates. Hyperscaler spend boosts HBM outlook. Op income 53.7t won; group net 47.1t won. Taiwan's Taiex Index fell 0.6% to 39,303.50 in Taipei, with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co contributing the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.6%. Singapore's Straits Times Index (STI) was not specifically mentioned in recent reports. DBS Q1 profit largely in line: net income +1% to S$2.93b (vs S$2.88b est). Group NII -5% while fee income +16%; wealth management fees +25% to S$907m. Shanghai Sunmi Technology jumped 298% at its Hong Kong trading debut after an initial public offering.

Earnings this week:

Thursday: Samsung Electronics Merck, ConocoPhillips, Mastercard, Caterpillar, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Apple, Tokyo Electron, DBS Group
Friday: Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Mitsubishi, Mitsui, Itochu, ANZ, Marubeni

FX:

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed 0.4% to its highest since April 13 after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged but revealed deepening divisions over the policy outlook.
JPY extended its slide beyond 160 against USD to its weakest mark this year at 160.47, the weakest since July 2024, fuelling risk that Japanese officials may step into the market to offer support. The yen later pared some losses to 160.27.
EUR gained an edge over the USD as policymakers at the ECB appeared to have turned more hawkish than their counterparts at the Federal Reserve. Traders now expect the ECB to deliver three-quarter point interest-rate hikes this year.
The yuan extended losses both onshore and offshoAre, ending Wednesday at the lowest level in more than three weeks. USDCNH rose 0.1% to finish the day at 6.8479, while USDCNY gained less than 0.1% to 6.8430.
NOK and CAD outperformed peers amid rising oil prices, as the US signalled no letup of the naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.

Commodities:

Brent crude oil rose more than 7% to above $119.50 a barrel on Wednesday, the highest since June 2022, as signs that flows through the Strait of Hormuz could be at a standstill for a prolonged period heightened concerns over a rapidly shrinking global supply cushion. Front-month ICE Brent crude for June delivery gained $6.77 per barrel, or 6.08%, to settle at $118.03.
Gold held a three-day loss after a divided Federal Reserve kept US interest rates steady and said the war in Iran was clouding the economic outlook. Bullion was near $4,550 an ounce in early trading, having fallen 3.4% over the previous three sessions.
Copper edged lower as investors weighed the ongoing risks that the Iran war poses to global growth against the outlook for demand in top buyer China. Front-month Comex copper for May delivery lost 3.90 cents per pound, or 0.66%, to $5.8785.

Fixed income:

Treasuries slumped after the FOMC policy announcement showed some members did not support the inclusion of an easing bias in the statement announcing it was holding rates steady. Two-year yields rose 11 basis points, the biggest jump on a Fed decision day since 2022. The US Treasury 10-year yield rose 8 basis points to 4.43%, the highest in more than nine months.
Australian bonds slid in early trading, tracking Treasuries after the Federal Reserve kept its policy rate on hold and after oil prices jumped. The yield on Australia's 3-year note jumped 10 basis points to 4.78%, while that on the 10-year bond gained 8 basis points to 5.08%.
Japan's 10-year yield rose 4 basis points to 2.5%, the highest level since 1997. Futures for the bond fell as much as 43 ticks to 129.27 in morning trading. Japanese government bonds are expected to drop, with investor caution mounting ahead of a two-year sale later Thursday.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance. The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.

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Big Tech earnings: Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon put AI spending on trial

Wed, 29 Apr 2026 20:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

AI spending is no longer judged by ambition alone. Investors now want visible payback.
Alphabet had the clearest initial market reward, while Meta faced the toughest reaction.
Cloud and advertising are working, but cash flow pressure is becoming harder to ignore.

Artificial intelligence (AI) has been the market’s favourite growth story. It has also become one of its most expensive hobbies. On 29 April 2026, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon gave investors a fresh look at the same big question: is AI spending turning into revenue, margins and cash flow?

The answer is not a simple yes or no. It is more like: yes, but the receipt is getting longer.

The early market reaction showed that investors are becoming more selective. Alphabet was the only clear initial winner, helped by strong Google Cloud growth, resilient Search and better profitability. Meta had the weakest reaction, despite strong advertising growth, because investors focused on the company’s higher capital expenditure plan. In this AI cycle, good revenue is helpful. Good revenue with controlled spending is better.

The chart below puts the AI spending debate in one simple frame: capital expenditure is rising fast, but most Big Tech firms still generate strong free cash flow. Amazon is the clear exception in 2026, as its investment cycle is expected to push free cash flow negative. That is why investors are asking not only “can they spend?” but “which companies can turn that spending into revenue, margins and cash flow fastest?”

Source: Saxo Bank analysis. The 2026 figures are based on Bloomberg forecasts. Chart generated using ASKB by BloombergAI.

Cloud gives the first answer

Microsoft gave investors one of the cleaner AI payback signals. Revenue came in at 82.89 billion USD, ahead of expectations, while Azure and other cloud services grew 39% in constant currency. Its AI business also passed a 37 billion USD annual revenue run rate, up 123% year-on-year. That is the kind of line investors wanted to see: AI is not only a product demo, it is becoming a business line.

Still, the trade-off is visible. Microsoft said cloud gross margin was pressured by AI infrastructure and AI product usage. In plain English, customers are using the tools, but the tools are not free to run. Chips, servers and power do not accept stock options as payment.

Amazon told a similar story, but with a sharper cash flow warning. Amazon Web Services (AWS), its cloud business, grew 28% in constant currency, its fastest growth in 15 quarters. The company also said its chips business topped a 20 billion USD revenue run rate. That is encouraging for the AI demand story.

But Amazon’s trailing 12-month free cash flow fell to 1.2 billion USD from 25.9 billion USD a year earlier, mainly because property and equipment spending rose sharply, reflecting AI investment. This is the core tension: AWS is accelerating, but the infrastructure bill is absorbing much of the benefit for now.

Advertising still pays the rent

Alphabet and Meta showed that AI is already helping the advertising machine. Alphabet reported revenue of 109.90 billion USD, up 22% year-on-year. Google Search and Other revenue rose 19%, while Google Cloud revenue jumped 63% to 20.03 billion USD. Even better, Google Cloud operating income rose to 6.60 billion USD from 2.18 billion USD a year earlier.

That explains the positive initial stock reaction. Alphabet did not only spend more. It showed where the payoff is appearing: Search remains strong, Cloud is scaling, and AI usage is supporting demand rather than clearly damaging the core business.

Meta also delivered strong numbers. Revenue rose 33% to 56.31 billion USD, advertising revenue rose 33%, and operating margin stayed at 41%. For most companies, that would be a victory lap with a modest sandwich.

But Meta raised its 2026 capital expenditure outlook to 125 to 145 billion USD, from 115 to 135 billion USD. That changed the market conversation. Investors are not saying Meta’s AI strategy is failing. They are saying the spending bar has moved higher again, so the proof also needs to move higher.

The new test: useful growth

For long-term investors, this earnings round is useful because it separates AI excitement from AI economics. The strongest signals are not vague statements about transformation. They are concrete signs: faster cloud growth, better ad performance, stronger operating income and healthy free cash flow.

The infographic below turns the earnings season into a simple checklist. Each company has a different AI test, but the investor question is the same: where should the payoff appear, and which numbers will show whether it is real?

Source: Saxo Bank analysis and in-house framework. For illustrative purposes only.

Risks to watch

The first risk is overbuilding. If data centre capacity grows faster than customer demand, margins could suffer. Watch whether cloud growth keeps pace with capital expenditure.

The second risk is pricing. If AI tools become widely available and similar, customers may resist paying much more for them. Adoption is good. Paid adoption is better.

The third risk is investor patience. These companies can afford large spending plans, but even Big Tech does not get unlimited benefit of the doubt. The market is now asking for receipts, not just roadmaps.

Investor playbook

Watch cloud growth alongside capital expenditure, not in isolation.
Follow free cash flow, especially at Amazon and Meta.
Look for AI comments tied to paid usage, pricing or margins.
Treat one quarter as evidence, not a final verdict.

From promise to payback

This earnings round does not settle the AI debate. It sharpens it. Microsoft and Alphabet showed the clearest early evidence that AI spending is turning into measurable business momentum. Amazon showed strong demand, but also how quickly investment can swallow cash flow. Meta showed that even excellent advertising growth may not satisfy investors when the spending plan gets bigger.

For long-term investors, the lesson is simple: AI still matters, but the market is becoming less impressed by the size of the kitchen and more interested in the meal. Big Tech is cooking. Now investors want to know who can serve profitably.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles Theme - Artificial intelligence Quarterly earnings

The great earnings squeeze: can record margins survive the real economy?

Tue, 28 Apr 2026 09:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

S&P 500 margins look strong, but this week tests whether that strength is broad.
Oil, freight and cautious consumers may separate real pricing power from hope.
Payments, staples, energy, healthcare and industrials offer a cleaner read on the real economy.

The market has enjoyed a strong profit story. According to FactSet, the S&P 500 is reporting a blended net profit margin of 13.4% for the first quarter of 2026. If confirmed, that would be the highest margin since FactSet began tracking the data in 2009. Analysts also expect margins to rise further through the rest of 2026.

Source: FactSet Insights.

That is impressive. It is also a high bar. Earnings season now asks a less comfortable question: can companies keep those margins when oil is higher, consumers are more selective, and costs still refuse to sit quietly in the corner?

This week is not only about Big Tech. Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Apple will still draw the headlines, especially as investors watch artificial intelligence spending. But the more useful clues may come from companies closer to the real economy: Visa, Mastercard, Coca-Cola, Starbucks, UPS, BP, TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil, Chevron, Linde, Airbus, Novartis, AstraZeneca, Caterpillar and others. They can show whether the profit story is broad, or whether the market is leaning too heavily on technology’s very large shoulders.

The consumer is not broken, but is getting choosy

Visa and Mastercard are simple but powerful economic thermometers. They run global card payment networks, so their results help show whether people are still spending across shops, travel, services and online purchases. They do not tell us everything, but they do show whether money is still moving.

The harder question is where that money goes. Coca-Cola and Mondelez test the strength of everyday brands. If consumers keep buying drinks and snacks despite higher prices, that points to pricing power. If volumes weaken, it suggests shoppers are still spending, but with a sharper pencil.

Starbucks is another useful signal. Coffee is not a mortgage payment, but it is a daily habit for many consumers. When people start trading down from small treats, it can say something about confidence. Not everything important in markets arrives wearing a suit.

Travel names add another layer. Booking Holdings and Royal Caribbean help show whether holidays and experiences remain a priority. A strong travel consumer can support margins in premium services, but it may also hide weakness in lower-income households. The consumer story is no longer one clean line. It is a split screen.

Oil helps one pocket and empties another

Higher oil prices create winners and victims at the same time. BP, TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil and Chevron can benefit from stronger energy prices, better trading conditions and improved refining margins. For these companies, higher oil can lift cash flow and support shareholder returns.

For many others, oil is less friendly. It raises fuel costs for logistics companies such as UPS. It can pressure airlines, packaging, chemicals and consumer goods companies. It can also hurt carmakers such as General Motors if higher petrol prices and financing costs make consumers more cautious about big purchases.

That is why oil is not just an energy story. It is a margin story. It touches the cost of moving goods, making goods and selling goods to households that already face higher bills. Very few companies enjoy being squeezed from both sides. Accountants are not known for their love of drama.

This is also where investors should look beneath the headline S&P 500 margin. FactSet notes that the energy sector’s first-quarter margin remains below its five-year average, even as oil is back in focus. That reminds us that higher commodity prices do not automatically mean stronger profits. Timing, refining, production costs and capital discipline still matter.

The real economy speaks quietly

Industrials rarely dominate earnings season, but they often tell the truth first. Airbus can show whether aircraft demand remains strong and whether supply chains are improving. Caterpillar gives a read on construction, mining and infrastructure spending. Atlas Copco is a window into factory equipment demand. Linde, which supplies industrial gases, shows whether essential business-to-business demand is holding up.

These companies matter because they sit close to real investment decisions. Orders, backlogs and margins can reveal whether companies are still expanding, delaying projects, or waiting for more clarity. That is more useful than another speech about “uncertainty”, though admittedly less dramatic.

Healthcare provides a different kind of test. Novartis and AstraZeneca offer a read on global drug demand and research pipelines. Eli Lilly remains tied to high expectations around obesity and diabetes treatments. AbbVie, Merck and Amgen bring the more mature side of healthcare, where patent risk, cash flow and new medicines matter.

Healthcare is less exposed to oil and daily consumer mood than many sectors. That can make it defensive. But defensive does not mean risk-free. When valuations are high, even stable companies need to deliver.

Big Tech is the shadow, not the whole stage

Big Tech still matters because it carries a large share of the index. Reuters Business notes that companies representing 44% of the S&P 500’s market value report this week, including the major technology names. That makes this a crucial week for market direction.

But for long-term investors, the broader question is not only whether the largest companies can keep spending on artificial intelligence. It is whether the rest of the market can defend profits without the same growth halo.

If Big Tech shines while consumer, industrial and transport companies weaken, the index may look healthier than the average business underneath. That is not necessarily a problem, but it is a concentration risk worth watching.

Risks that can spoil the meal

The first risk is that margins are too dependent on technology. If record profits come mainly from a few giant companies, the headline index margin may hide pressure elsewhere.

The second risk is that higher oil prices spread through the economy. Investors should watch fuel costs, freight commentary, packaging costs and any signs that companies need more discounts to protect volumes.

The third risk is consumer fatigue. Card spending can stay solid even if households become more selective. The warning signs are weaker volumes, smaller transactions and management comments about trading down.

Investor playbook

Watch margins, not only sales. Revenue growth matters less if costs rise faster.
Compare pricing power across sectors. Strong brands and essential services should hold up better.
Separate oil winners from oil victims. Energy gains can still pressure the wider market.
Treat Big Tech as context, not the full market. Index strength can hide weaker breadth.

The quieter test beneath the headlines

The market has enjoyed a very profitable meal, but this earnings week brings the bill. Big Tech will attract the brightest lights, yet the quieter clues may come from card payments, coffee cups, freight trucks, medicines, aircraft parts and barrels of oil. These are the companies closer to daily economic life. If they can protect margins, the profit story looks broader and healthier. If they cannot, record margins may look less like a new normal and more like a very good table at a crowded restaurant: pleasant while it lasts, but not guaranteed next time.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles

From reactor dreams to real contracts: the next test for nuclear stocks

Mon, 27 Apr 2026 11:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

X-energy’s strong listing shows appetite for nuclear, but only where contracts look credible.
Investors are now separating big stories from business models with clients, permits and cash.
Nuclear, space and artificial intelligence infrastructure stocks face the same test: can promises become profits?

A year ago, almost any stock with a nuclear angle could enjoy a warm glow. The story was simple: artificial intelligence (AI) needs more power, grids are tight, carbon-free electricity is scarce, and nuclear is suddenly fashionable again. Now the market is asking a better question: who actually gets paid?

That is why X-energy’s Nasdaq debut on 24 April 2026 matters. The advanced nuclear company priced its initial public offering (IPO) at USD 23 per share, raised about USD 1.02 billion, and closed at USD 29.20, up 27% from the IPO price. That is a strong start. But the interesting part is not just the share price pop. It is what investors seemed to reward: visible customers, industrial use cases, fuel capability and a long runway linked to power demand.

This is the new phase of the nuclear trade. Investors are still interested in the theme, but the easy “nuclear equals growth” story is no longer enough. The market now wants evidence: credible customers, bankable contracts, realistic timelines, funding visibility and a path from big ambition to actual cash flow.

The reactor story now needs a customer story

X-energy develops small modular reactors (SMRs), smaller nuclear plants designed to be built in modules rather than as one giant site-specific project. In theory, they can be cheaper, faster and easier to repeat than traditional nuclear plants. In practice, the sector still needs to prove that theory at commercial scale.

That is why X-energy’s client list matters. Amazon has invested in the company and is working with it on plans to deploy more than 5 gigawatts of new nuclear capacity in the United States by 2039. Dow is tied to a proposed project in Seadrift, Texas, where X-energy’s reactors would support industrial power and steam needs. Centrica is also working with X-energy on plans for advanced modular reactors in the United Kingdom.

For investors, these details change the conversation. A company without a customer is selling imagination. A company with large industrial and technology partners is at least selling a route to demand. The difference is not small. It is the difference between a sketch on a napkin and a blueprint with someone’s name on the invoice.

Still, a contract does not remove risk. It only improves the starting point. Nuclear projects require licences, financing, fuel, construction discipline and political patience. That last one is rare in nature, like a low-fee fund with perfect timing.

The market wants proof, not poetry

The same selectivity is visible beyond nuclear. AST SpaceMobile is not a nuclear company, but it is a useful comparison because it sits in the same “future infrastructure” bucket. The company is building a satellite network designed to connect ordinary mobile phones directly from space. That is a powerful idea, especially for remote areas, defence and emergency coverage.

But the market now watches the details closely. AST SpaceMobile reported USD 70.9 million of revenue for 2025 and pointed to large contracted revenue commitments. That helps. Yet recent pressure on the shares shows investors also care about launch execution, satellite deployment, competition and shareholder selling.

That is the pattern. Future infrastructure stocks can still attract capital, but the market is starting to score them like businesses, not science projects. The checklist is becoming clearer: real customers, binding or credible contracts, visible revenue conversion, enough cash to fund the build-out, and a path to profits that does not require permanent investor generosity.

In nuclear, this also explains the uneven moves across the sector. Oklo, NuScale Power, Cameco and other names all sit in different parts of the nuclear value chain. Some are developers. Some are fuel or uranium suppliers. Some have operating assets or more established revenue. Investors are increasingly treating those differences as important, which is healthy. A reactor developer and a uranium producer are not the same business, even if both glow in the same thematic presentation.

Source: Saxo Bank in-house framework. This is not an exhaustive list.

The hard part is turning demand into earnings

The bullish case for nuclear is easy to understand. AI data centres need reliable electricity. Electrification adds more demand. Governments want energy security. Companies want cleaner power. Nuclear sits neatly in that overlap.

The challenge is that demand is not the same as profit. A power buyer may want clean electricity, but only at a price that works. A developer may have a great design, but still face regulatory delays. A project may be strategic, but still run over budget. Nuclear history has a long memory, and not every chapter is bedtime reading.

This is why the best investor framework is not “which nuclear stock is hottest?” It is “which company can move from story to contract, from contract to construction, and from construction to cash flow?”

That sequence matters. Each step reduces risk. Each step also changes the valuation debate. Early-stage companies can move sharply on news because expectations are doing most of the heavy lifting. As companies mature, investors usually demand evidence. Revenue quality, margins, funding needs and customer concentration become more important than the size of the addressable market.

The risks are still very real

The biggest risk is timing. Nuclear projects can take years before revenue becomes meaningful, and delays can stretch balance sheets. Investors should watch regulatory milestones, construction updates and whether customers remain committed when costs change.

The second risk is financing. Companies building reactors, satellites or other hard infrastructure often need a lot of capital before they generate steady cash. If share prices fall, raising new money can become expensive.

The third risk is narrative crowding. When many stocks chase the same theme, the weaker stories can look strong during rallies. In a more selective market, vague announcements may stop working. The market may still enjoy a good story, but it now seems to prefer one with page numbers, signatures and payment terms.

Investor playbook

Track customer quality: large, credible clients matter more than vague memorandums of understanding.
Separate demand from profit: power shortages help, but economics decide shareholder returns.
Watch funding needs: repeated share issuance can dilute investors even when the story improves.
Use milestones: permits, construction starts, delivered revenue and margins are better signals than headlines.

The glow must meet the grid

The nuclear trade is not losing relevance. If anything, the need for reliable power is becoming more important as AI, electrification and energy security reshape the market. But the easy part of the story may be over. Investors are moving from “this sounds big” to “show me the contract, the permit, the customer and the margin”. That is a better market, even if it is less forgiving. X-energy’s IPO shows that capital is still available for strong future-infrastructure stories. The next test is whether those stories can survive contact with engineering, regulation and arithmetic. The atom may power the future, but cash flow will decide the investment case.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead

The great divide: SaaS cools while hardware heats up

Fri, 24 Apr 2026 09:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

SaaS weakness reflects tighter expectations, not a collapse in fundamentals.
AI is shifting value from software pricing to hardware capacity and supply.
Markets are rewarding scarcity in chips while questioning growth in software.

Software stocks were meant to be the cleanest story in markets. Predictable revenue, steady growth, and high margins. It felt simple. Right now, it does not feel simple at all. Recent earnings from names like ServiceNow and Adobe have triggered sharp share price reactions. Not because the numbers were disastrous, but because they were not strong enough.

At the same time, parts of the semiconductor world are holding up better. Companies like Intel and Texas Instruments are benefiting from a different kind of question. Not “will customers pay more?” but “who can actually supply what is needed?”

That contrast tells a bigger story. The artificial intelligence trade is not disappearing. It is shifting.

When growth stories meet stricter questions

SaaS, or software as a service, has long been valued on future potential. Investors paid for growth that was expected to continue almost automatically. That expectation is now being tested. Companies are still growing, but at a slower pace. Customers are more careful. Deals take longer. Expansion within existing clients is not as strong as before.

One key measure is net revenue retention. This shows how much existing customers increase their spending over time. For many SaaS firms, this number is drifting lower. The reason is simple. Businesses are reviewing costs. Software budgets are no longer treated as untouchable.

There is also a quiet shift in competition. Large platforms such as Microsoft and Alphabet are bundling more features into their ecosystems. Tools that once justified separate subscriptions are increasingly included as part of a broader offering.

This puts pressure on pricing power. Still, it is important to stay grounded. Many SaaS companies continue to grow at healthy rates. Their margins remain strong. Recurring revenue is still more stable than most business models.

The issue is not that SaaS is breaking. It is that expectations are tightening faster than the businesses are changing.

Chips have something software does not: scarcity

While software faces questions about pricing and demand, hardware tells a different story. Semiconductors are physical. They require factories, supply chains, and years of investment. They cannot be copied overnight.

That creates scarcity. Artificial intelligence is not just a software story. It is also about data centres, power systems, and the chips that make everything run. This is where companies like Intel and Texas Instruments come in.

Intel is working to rebuild its position in advanced chips and manufacturing. It sits closer to the large-scale infrastructure needed to train and run AI systems.

Texas Instruments operates in a quieter part of the market. It produces analogue and embedded chips, the components that help machines sense, control, and manage power. These chips are found in cars, factories, and industrial systems. Not exciting, but essential.

This difference matters. Software can often be replicated or bundled into larger platforms. Hardware cannot. If demand rises, supply takes time to catch up. That gives chipmakers a different kind of pricing power.

In simple terms, software is facing substitution risk. Hardware is facing capacity constraints. Markets are responding accordingly.

A shift from narrative to economics

The recent split between SaaS and semiconductors reflects a deeper change. Investors are moving away from broad narratives and towards practical economics. In software, the key question is whether companies can maintain pricing power and steady expansion.

In hardware, the question is whether supply can meet demand, and at what cost. Both sectors are tied to artificial intelligence, but they sit at different points in the value chain. One is closer to the user. The other is closer to the infrastructure.

Right now, infrastructure looks more tangible. That does not mean hardware is safer. Semiconductor businesses are cyclical. Demand can rise quickly, but it can also fall. Overinvestment is always a risk. It simply means the current phase of the AI cycle is rewarding what is hardest to replicate.

Risks worth watching

There are risks on both sides of this divide.

For SaaS, the main concern is that slower growth becomes structural. If customers continue to reduce spending or switch to bundled solutions, pricing power could weaken more than expected. For hardware, the risk is the opposite. If companies build too much capacity, the industry could face oversupply. That would pressure margins and returns.

There is also a broader risk. If economic conditions deteriorate, both software spending and hardware demand could slow at the same time. Early signals often appear in guidance, order trends, and how companies talk about demand. Tone matters as much as numbers.

The real message behind the market split

At first glance, the recent moves look like a simple rotation. Software down, hardware up. It is more interesting than that. The market is not rejecting artificial intelligence. It is refining how it values it. The focus is shifting from what AI can do to what it requires. Software shows the promise. Hardware carries the cost.

That brings us back to the starting point. Software once felt like the easiest story in markets. Today, it requires more explanation. Hardware, often overlooked, is gaining attention because it is harder to ignore.

For long-term investors, this is not about choosing one over the other. It is about understanding where value is building in each phase of the cycle. The glow around SaaS may have dimmed, but the broader AI story has not. It has simply moved deeper into the system, where scarcity, not just innovation, decides who gets paid.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles

Asia Market Quick Take – 24 April, 2026

Fri, 24 Apr 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 24 April, 2026

Key points:

Macro: US continues to block Iranian ports; Japan inflation rises
Equities: Intel gains 20% after delivering strong sales forecast
FX: USDJPY near 160, 4th straight gain; NZDUSD G10 laggard
Commodities: Gold set for weekly drop; oil up fifth day, WTI near $100
Fixed income: 5 year breakevens topped 2.7%, widest since 23 Mar

------------------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

Japan’s annual inflation rose to 1.5% in March 2026 from 1.3% in February, driven by higher transport and household item costs. Food inflation eased to 3.6%, while electricity and gas prices fell further on subsidies. Core inflation picked up to 1.8%, still below the 2% target. Month-on-month, CPI increased 0.4%, the strongest rise since January 2025.
Trump’s Truth Social posts and decision to maintain a naval blockade of Iranian ports have hindered prospects for renewed talks with Tehran. The US‑Iran ceasefire and the Israel‑Lebanon truce were both extended, but disruptions have sharply reduced Middle East oil and gas shipments, tightening global supply.
The S&P Global flash US Composite PMI rose to 52 in April 2026 from 50.3 in March, indicating modest growth. Services activity was weak despite a move back into expansion, while manufacturing saw its strongest output gain in four years, partly from stockpiling. Input costs and supply delays hit their worst since mid-2022, triggering the largest jump in selling prices since July 2022, and employment increased only slightly.
US initial jobless claims rose by 6,000 to 214,000 in the week ending April 18, near expectations. Continuing claims edged up by 12,000 to 1.821 million. Both remain below last year’s averages, consistent with low layoff levels. Federal employee claims fell by 60 to 452.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.20 in March 2026 from +0.03 in February, its weakest since November 2025, as production, sales, and consumption/housing turned negative, partly offset by slightly stronger employment indicators.

Equities:

US: The S&P 500 Index slid 0.4% to 7,108.40 on Thursday, as oil rose on concern about an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East that could prolong the Strait of Hormuz closure. Nasdaq 100 fell 0.6% while the Dow Jones dropped 0.4%. Technology stocks led the decline, with the sector shedding 1.5%, dragged down by ServiceNow which plunged 17.8% after cutting its full-year forecast. Lockheed Martin lost 4.7% after reporting an 11% decline in earnings which was more than expected. In after-hours trading, Intel delivered a blockbuster sales forecast, with revenue guidance of $13.8 billion to $14.8 billion in the June quarter vs estimates of $13b, sending shares +20%. AppFolio shares rose 6.4% after raising its full-year revenue forecast, while Boyd Gaming and other stocks also moved.
EU: European stocks closed a touch higher on Thursday, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index advancing slightly to 614.20, having fluctuated as markets digested a flurry of earnings and conflicting messaging around the conflict in the Middle East. Food giant Nestle was the biggest point gainer, increasing 5.9% as demand for coffee and snacks saw sales top expectations, while L'Oreal reported its strongest quarterly sales growth in two years. The FTSE 100 fell for the fourth day, dropping 0.2% to 10,457.01 in London, while the DAX fell 0.2% to 24,155.45 in Frankfurt. The Swiss Market Index broke its three-day losing streak, closing 1.38% higher amid a busy day of corporate financial updates.
Asia: Asian markets showed mixed performance on Friday. South Korea's Kospi Index opened 0.3% higher at 6,496.10, following a strong Thursday session where it rose 0.9% to 6,475.81, driven by an earnings beat by SK Hynix and a surprisingly strong print for Korea's first-quarter GDP, with Samsung shares setting another record. Nikkei futures were down 0.2% at 59,050 on the SGX as uncertainty over the US-Iran conflict continues, with the dollar at 159.74 yen. The Nikkei 225 touched 60,000 for the first time earlier this week amid huge foreign inflows to Japanese equities. Singapore's Straits Times Index has been volatile, with the benchmark rising 0.3% to 5,021.20 on April 15, though it dipped 0.2% to 4,997.93 on April 17 as investors awaited the extension of the US-Iran war ceasefire. Hong Kong's Hang Seng and other regional markets remained cautious amid Middle East tensions.

Earnings this week:

Friday - Procter & Gamble

FX:

The dollar climbed for a third day while all G-10 currencies fell against the greenback Thursday, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rising 0.1%, climbing more than 0.5% in three days.
USDJPY gained 0.15% to 159.73 yen, up for four straight sessions, as Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned that officials are in close contact around the clock with their US counterparts as Tokyo remains on high alert over speculative moves keeping the yen weak. One-week implied volatility on USDJPY jumped to 8.5%, the highest since March 31 on an end-of-day basis, with both Fed and Bank of Japan rate decisions coming up next week and uncertainties persisting over US-Iran peace negotiations.
The euro lost 0.16% to $1.1686, down for three straight sessions and hitting the lowest five pm New York rate since Wednesday, April 8, 2026, with the euro dropping below its 200-day moving average to $1.1671, the lowest since April 13.
The yuan slipped as the US dollar climbed for a third straight day amid growing uncertainties surrounding US-Iran peace talks, with USDCNH rising less than 0.1% to 6.8350 and the People's Bank of China weakening its daily reference rate for a second day.
The New Zealand dollar underperformed all other G10 currencies against the US dollar.

Commodities:

Gold was headed for a weekly decline, snapping four weeks of gains, trading steady below $4,700 an ounce, having given up nearly 3% over the week as the US and Iran intensified a maritime standoff and progress faltered on talks to end the war that's choked energy supplies and heightened inflation risks.
WTI crude rose at the open in Asia near $97 per barrel, with oil swinging between gains and losses as the US and Iran remained locked in a battle for control of the Strait of Hormuz after plans to meet for a fresh round of peace talks failed, with President Donald Trump ordering the US Navy to shoot any boat laying mines in the waterway.
Copper fell with most other metals as investors watched for the next major developments from the Middle East after peace talks stalled, with Comex Copper settling 0.73% lower at $6.0755 per pound and LME 3-month copper closing $78 lower at $13,356 a ton.

Fixed income:

US Treasury yields rose across the curve, with the 10-year yield rising 2.2 basis points to 4.327% and the 30-year yield rising 1.7 basis points to 4.923%, marking the largest one-day yield gain for the 30-year since Thursday, April 16, 2026.
The US Treasury's 5-year TIPS reopening was awarded at 1.367% versus the when-issued yield of around 1.365%, with the auction stopping around 0.2 basis points above the WI yield, while 5-year breakeven rates topped through 2.7%, the widest since March 23.
Munis cheapened slightly on the front of the curve, as US Treasuries saw continued losses, with munis weaker on the front end for a few days, leading to a slight inversion of the curve starting around the 2028 maturities.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

The Tesla quarter that said “better now, costlier later”

Thu, 23 Apr 2026 07:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Tesla beat expectations on profit and cash flow, but the bigger story was a much larger spending plan.
The core car business looks steadier, yet Tesla is asking investors to fund a wider bet on autonomy and robotics.
That matters beyond Tesla, because the electric vehicle race is shifting from pure sales growth to execution, cost control and software scale.

Tesla’s first-quarter update lands with a familiar kind of tension. The company gave investors a better set of near-term numbers, then reminded them that the real story sits further out and costs a lot more. In extended trading, the shares initially climbed as much as 4.8%, to 406 USD after the results, before that early cheer faded as management lifted its 2026 spending plan and warned of negative free cash flow for the rest of the year. Markets, it turns out, still enjoy a profit beat, but they become more thoughtful when the invoice arrives.

The headline numbers were strong enough to trigger that initial bounce. Revenue and earnings per share both beat Bloomberg consensus, while gross margin improved to 21.1% from 16.3% a year earlier. Put simply, Tesla earned more from each dollar of sales than the market had expected.

A better quarter, but not a simple one

The reason investors did not celebrate for long is that Tesla paired that beat with a much heavier spending message. Management now expects capital expenditure, meaning money spent on factories, equipment and major projects, to exceed 25 billion USD in 2026. That is at least 5 billion USD above its earlier forecast of around 20 billion USD. Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja also said the company expects negative free cash flow for the rest of 2026 as this investment phase ramps. That changes the tone. A company can beat this quarter and still make next year feel more expensive.

Tesla Capital Expenditures: Historical, Guidance, and Estimates (USD Billions)

Source: Saxo Bank analysis, Bloomberg consensus. Chart generated using ASKB by BloombergAI.

This is why the market reaction makes sense. Tesla’s earnings beat says the present is holding up better than feared. The spending plan says the future will require much more trust. Investors are not just buying a carmaker here. They are being asked to keep funding a transition into artificial intelligence, humanoid robots, robotaxis, chips and new factories. That is a very large sentence, and an even larger cheque. The market’s hesitation was less about the quarter and more about what the quarter is being used to finance.

Cars still pay the bills

That matters because Tesla’s traditional auto business is still the engine supporting the rest of the story. The company delivered 358,023 vehicles in the quarter, up 21,342, or 6.3%, from a year earlier, but still below Wall Street expectations, as compiled by Bloomberg. It also produced 408,386 vehicles, which means production exceeded deliveries by 50,363 units. That gap matters. It suggests Tesla is stabilising demand, not escaping the harder reality of a more competitive electric vehicle market. Chinese rivals remain aggressive, price pressure has not vanished, and the expiry of a United States electric-vehicle tax incentive adds another headwind.

Tesla did offer some encouraging signs. It said demand improved in Asia-Pacific and South America and rebounded in North America and the Europe, Middle East and Africa region. It also pointed to progress on Full Self-Driving, or FSD, which still requires human supervision, including Dutch approval in April and a wider European process now under way. Meanwhile, paid robotaxi miles nearly doubled sequentially, and Tesla has expanded rides in Texas while preparing more US cities. These are not yet profit centres on a scale that changes the income statement. But they do show the company is trying to turn a story into a service.

The wider message for the industry

The broader lesson is that the electric vehicle industry is maturing into something more demanding. For years, the simple question was who could sell more electric cars. Now the question is who can fund the next layer without breaking the economics of the current one. Tesla is trying to use a steadier car business to bankroll autonomy and robotics. Other carmakers may not have that luxury. That makes Tesla’s quarter relevant well beyond one ticker. It highlights how future advantage may sit not only in vehicle design, but in software, data, chips, factories and balance-sheet stamina. That is less cinematic than a robot unveiling, but usually more useful for investors.

There is also a useful warning in the side businesses. Tesla’s energy generation and storage revenue fell to 2.41 billion USD, down 12%, from a year earlier. Management called that business “lumpy”, meaning the timing of projects can swing results from quarter to quarter. Fair enough. But it also shows that even Tesla’s brighter narratives do not always move in a straight line. When a company is trying to be carmaker, software house, robotics lab and energy platform at once, investors need to accept that some parts will look tidier than others.

Risks worth keeping in view

The main risk is execution. Tesla now has more projects that need to work, not fewer. Investors should watch whether Cybercab production really scales, whether robotaxi disclosures become more concrete, and whether the core car business can keep funding the transition. A second risk is that competition in electric vehicles keeps tightening while Tesla spends more heavily elsewhere. A third is that valuation still rests partly on future businesses that remain early, regulated and hard to model. In plain English, the dream is large, but so is the distance between pilot project and durable profit.

The price of tomorrow

Tesla’s quarter does not settle the big debate around the stock. It sharpens it. The company showed that the present is in better shape than many feared, but also that management is doubling down on a future that asks for more capital, more patience and more belief. That is the loop investors come back to with Tesla again and again. It sells cars today, but it is valued for what it hopes to become tomorrow. This quarter made that trade-off clearer, not easier. And perhaps that is the real Tesla earnings story: better numbers bought the company a little more time, but time, like everything else in this story, is unlikely to be cheap.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles Quarterly earnings Tesla Tesla Motors Tesla Inc.

Asia Market Quick Take – 23 April, 2026

Thu, 23 Apr 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 23 April, 2026

Key points:

Macro: Iran restricts SoH and US continues blockade of Iran ships
Equities: SP500 trades to new high and Tesla beats earnings
FX: Norwegian krone rallied, leading G-10
Commodities: Brent futures settled above $101, +3.5%, a two-week high
Fixed income: Yields are higher and long end muted after solid $13bn 20Y reopening

------------------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

Tehran continues to control the Straits of Hormuz, restricting most international traffic and reportedly firing on commercial ships, while the US maintains a blockade of Iranian ports that Tehran calls a ceasefire violation. Trump said the truce will remain in place indefinitely as Washington awaits a revised peace proposal, but Iran has signaled it does not plan to hold talks soon.
South Korea’s GDP grew 1.7% QoQ in Q1 2026, rebounding from a 0.2% contraction and beating the 1.0% forecast, the strongest since Q1 2021. Growth was driven by a 5.1% rise in exports (especially semiconductors), solid investment, and modest consumption gains. Annually, GDP rose 3.6%, up from 1.6% and above the 2.7% forecast, the fastest since Q4 2021.
Australia’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.0 in April 2026 from 49.8, signaling a return to expansion. Output fell more slowly, while new orders, jobs, and inventories slipped modestly amid weak demand. Middle East–related disruptions lengthened delivery times the most since mid-2022, and higher fuel and freight costs drove the fastest input inflation in nearly four years.
US crude inventories rose 1.93 million barrels to 465.7 million in the week to April 17, against expectations for a 1.2 million draw, with Cushing stocks up 806,000. Refinery runs and utilization edged lower, while gasoline and distillate stocks posted larger‑than‑expected draws. Net crude imports increased by 1.21 million bpd.
Euro Area consumer confidence fell 4.3 points to -20.6 in April 2026, the lowest since December 2022, amid economic uncertainty and higher energy costs. In the wider EU, sentiment dropped 4.2 points to -19.4, with confidence in both regions still well below long-term averages.

Equities:

US: S&P 500 climbed 1.0% to a fresh all-time high of 7,137.90 on Wednesday, placing the index on track for its best month since 2020, as strong corporate results and the ceasefire extension revived risk appetites after a two-day retreat. Nasdaq 100 jumped 1.7% to also set a closing peak, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.7%. Chipmakers climbed for a 16th straight day, the longest-ever winning streak. Boeing surged on solid first-quarter deliveries. In after-hours trading, Tesla jumped as earnings beat estimates, reporting profits of $477 million, up 17% from the year-ago period, while revenues jumped 16% to $22.4 billion. Intel shares gained 3% after Tesla CEO Musk stated plans to use Intel's 14A process. IBM and CSX also moved higher in late trading.
EU: The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell for the third day, dropping 0.3% to 613.88, the lowest closing level since April 9. Deutsche Telekom contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 4.8% after Bloomberg News reported it's discussing a potential merger with its T-Mobile US arm. Bureau Veritas had the largest drop, falling 10.6%. The DAX fell 0.3% to 24,194.90 in Frankfurt, while the FTSE 100 dropped 0.2% to 10,476.46 in London. Technology stocks rose against the broader market decline, with ASML rallying after giving a strong forecast. An investor frenzy for photonics companies producing optical components essential to AI datacenters continued, with Germany's LPKF Laser & Electronics rising 14% and up 200% since the start of the year.
Asia: Asian equity futures were primed for advances Thursday after robust US corporate results lifted Wall Street to a record. Equity-index futures for Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea all climbed. On Wednesday, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 1.2% to 26,163.24, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped around 2% to 4,963, dragged lower by major Chinese tech firms including Alibaba and JD.com on concerns over near-term profitability due to regulatory pressure. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 1.2% to 8,843.60 at close. The Kospi Index in Seoul rose 0.5% to 6,417.93, with HD Hyundai Heavy Industries contributing the most to the index gain. SK Hynix reported a five-fold jump in quarterly profit to a record 40.3 trillion won, underscoring surging prices of AI memory chips. Nikkei futures were flat at 59,755 on the SGX as investors monitored developments in the Middle East.

Earnings this week:

Thursday - Lockheed Martin, American Express, Intel
Friday - Procter & Gamble
Sunday - Verizon

FX:

The Norwegian krone rallied, outperforming all Group-of-10 peers against the greenback.
USDJPY slipped less than 0.1% to 159.27, inching closer to 160 per dollar as oil prices rose, with the yen gaining as much as 0.2% to 159.11 per dollar earlier in the session.
GBPUSD fell 0.1% to 1.3498, with the pound sterling climbing against the euro as rate hike bets held firm.
Morgan Stanley analysts see EURUSD longs with an approximately 6- to 9-month horizon looking attractive with a target between 1.20 and 1.25.
AUDUSD remains choppy and upside beyond the 17 April high looks limited with stochastics still overbought.
NZDUSD is consolidating after a bullish break above resistance from a downtrend from the 12 February high.

Commodities:

Brent crude futures settled above $101 a barrel, gaining 3.5% to $101.91, the highest in two weeks, amid conflicting reports about plans to reschedule peace talks between the US and Iran which have ultimately failed to materialize. WTI futures settled up 0.9% at $92.96.
Comex silver settled 1.9% higher at $77.893 per troy ounce, snapping a two-session losing streak.
Exchange-traded funds added 10,007 troy ounces of gold to their holdings in the last trading session, marking the sixth straight day of growth, the longest winning streak since January 28.

Fixed income:

Treasury futures edged lower into the $13 billion 20-year bond auction, before losses faded in late session to leave yields marginally cheaper on the day across the curve. The 20-year bond was awarded at 4.883% versus the WI yield trading around 4.892% at the bidding deadline, a solid auction result.
The 10-year Treasury yield remained unchanged at 4.293%, while the 30-year yield was little changed at 4.901%.
Treasury yields bounced back from early declines and settled roughly unchanged as Iran fired on three ships and President Trump extended the ceasefire but kept the US blockade of Iranian ports.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

APAC Research

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Mag 7 earnings preview: Can Big Tech turn AI spending into earnings growth?

Wed, 22 Apr 2026 05:30:00 Z

Key points:

This is the next big test for the AI trade. Five of the Magnificent 7 report within two days, with Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon on 29 April 2026, and Apple on 30 April 2026.
The debate has shifted from overbuilding to returns. Earlier concerns around excessive AI data-centre buildout have eased, but investors now want proof that capex is translating into revenue, margins, and monetisation.
The bar is different for each name. Microsoft and Amazon need to prove cloud and AI demand are still accelerating, Alphabet and Meta need clearer monetisation, and Apple needs to defend its premium with resilience rather than hype.

The AI story is entering a more demanding phase. Earlier this year, investors worried hyperscalers were building too much AI infrastructure, too quickly, with capex rising sharply and the revenue flywheel still unclear. That tone has shifted. AI stocks have regained momentum into first-quarter earnings as overbuilding fears have eased, compute shortages remain real, and newer model momentum has helped revive confidence in demand.

This earnings week matters because the market is no longer rewarding AI ambition alone. It now wants evidence that spending is still producing durable growth, stronger earnings, and clearer returns on investment. The four hyperscalers alone are expected to spend about $645 billion in 2026, up roughly 56% from a year earlier. Investors can still forgive big spending. They may be far less willing to forgive vague spending.

Microsoft

Date of reporting: 29 April 2026
EPS expected: about $4.04, up roughly 17% year-on-year
Revenue expected: about $81.4 billion, up roughly 16% year-on-year

Capex: Microsoft is on track to spend close to $146 billion on AI and cloud infrastructure in fiscal 2026, among the highest across hyperscalers, with expectations for fiscal 2027 capex moving closer to $170 billion. That leaves little room for vague messaging. The market will want reassurance that this level of investment is still being matched by demand, monetisation, and operating leverage.

What to watch: Microsoft remains the market’s cleanest AI execution story, but after lagging peers it now needs to show that heavy investment is producing visible commercial traction.

Azure: Intelligent Cloud revenue is expected at about $34.2 billion, up 28% y/y, with Azure growth around 38%. Healthy cloud migrations and strong AI spending remain the key supports. AI contribution is expected at about 21.4%.
Cloud margins: Microsoft Cloud gross margin is expected at 66.23%, down from 69% in Q3 FY2025, reinforcing the view that this phase of AI growth remains infrastructure-heavy.
Commercial remaining performance obligation: This remains a key forward-looking demand indicator as Microsoft scales spending aggressively.
Copilot: Monetisation may be improving sequentially, but adoption still looks challenging. The question is whether Copilot is becoming meaningful commercial traction rather than just strategic narrative.

Stock price and valuation view: Microsoft has been the worst performer among the hyperscalers year-to-date. That leaves the stock looking less crowded than peers, but at roughly 22x forward earnings, it is not cheap enough to ignore execution risk. A strong Azure print and improving Copilot traction would reinforce the case that Microsoft remains one of the market’s highest-quality AI compounders.

Bull case: Azure growth lands at or above the high end of expectations, AI contribution continues to rise, and Copilot monetisation shows clearer progress alongside confident commentary on demand.

Bear case: Azure growth merely meets expectations, Copilot adoption remains sluggish, and capex stays very heavy, reviving concern that spending is running ahead of monetisation.

Alphabet

Date of reporting: 29 April 2026
Adjusted EPS expected: about $2.83
Revenue expected: about $107 billion, up roughly 11% year-on-year
Key segments: Google Search, YouTube Ads, Google Cloud, Other Bets

Capex: Alphabet’s spending plans remain one of the key debates around the stock. The current expectation is that management maintains its FY2026 capex forecast of $175-$185 billion, with limited forward commentary on FY2027. Even so, Bloomberg estimates point to capex moving closer to $200 billion in FY2027, which shows why investors will remain highly sensitive to any signal on duration, discipline, and expected returns. The market has become more comfortable with elevated AI investment, but only because Google Cloud momentum has improved and the broader monetisation story is starting to look more credible.

What to watch: Alphabet now needs to show it is becoming a broader AI platform story without damaging the profitability of Search.

Search: Revenue is expected at about $59 billion, up 16% y/y, with a modest deceleration from the prior quarter.
Google Cloud Platform: Likely the standout metric, with growth potentially in the 50% range y/y, driven by broader AI workloads.
YouTube and advertising: Revenue is expected at about $10 billion, up 12% y/y, supported by healthy ad demand.
Margins and AI returns: Rising capex means investors will keep watching whether monetisation is visible enough to preserve operating discipline.

Stock price and valuation view: Alphabet increasingly looks like a catch-up AI trade. There is room for further re-rating if management shows AI is widening the franchise rather than just defending it. But that means the quarter needs to deliver more than a clean beat.

Bull case: Google Cloud surprises to the upside, Search remains resilient, and management shows confidence that AI is supporting growth rather than simply increasing costs.

Bear case: Search softens, capex rises further, or Cloud growth is not strong enough to convince investors that returns on AI spending are improving.

Amazon

Date of reporting: 29 April 2026
Adjusted EPS expected: about $2.11
Revenue expected: about $177.2 billion, up roughly 14% year-on-year

Capex: Amazon’s investment cycle has become much more central to the stock’s narrative as AWS and the broader AI infrastructure ecosystem take on greater importance. Amazon is expected to reiterate its full-year 2026 capex guide of $200 billion, which would make it the largest spender among the AI hyperscalers. Consensus for full-year 2026 capex stands at about $195.9 billion, while Bloomberg consensus points to roughly $209 billion in 2027. On 21 April 2026, Amazon also announced an additional $5 billion investment in Anthropic, with potential for $20 billion more over time, underscoring how quickly enterprise AI demand is scaling. The market has been comfortable backing that buildout because AWS remains one of the clearest beneficiaries of rising AI demand. But comfort is conditional. Heavy capex still needs to be matched by visible acceleration in cloud growth and healthy margins.

What to watch: Amazon may be the most important read-through for the broader AI infrastructure trade because AWS sits at the centre of enterprise and developer demand for compute.

AWS: Revenue is estimated at about $36.6 billion, up 25% y/y in constant currency, driven by robust AI demand, increased Claude usage, and expanded cloud commitments.
Advertising Services: Revenue is estimated at about $16.9 billion, up 20.8% y/y in constant currency.
Retail and operating discipline: Investors will watch whether retail margins hold up as Amazon balances core commerce and AI-related investment.
AI ecosystem and commentary: The market will want reassurance that Amazon is not just spending to keep pace, but building an ecosystem that supports durable revenue growth.

Stock price and valuation view: Amazon has been the clear momentum leader in the group, with the stock up about 20% month-to-date and 8% year-to-date, making it the strongest performer among the hyperscalers. That strength reflects growing confidence in AWS, the AI infrastructure story, and the broader Anthropic ecosystem. At roughly 23x forward earnings, the stock is still carrying a premium, which means expectations are not low. If management delivers confidence on cloud acceleration and the broader AI ecosystem, Amazon can continue to justify that premium. But if AWS is merely in line while capex remains very heavy, the market may start asking harder questions about whether Amazon is investing like a winner but reporting like a laggard.

Bull case: AWS growth meets or exceeds elevated expectations, advertising remains strong, margins stay healthy, and management commentary reinforces the view that AI demand is driving durable cloud growth.

Bear case: Heavy spending continues but AWS growth is only in line, creating concern that Amazon is investing aggressively without enough acceleration to justify it.

Apple

Date of reporting: 30 April 2026
EPS expected: about $1.96, up roughly 18% year-on-year
Revenue expected: about $109.3 billion, up roughly 15% year-on-year

Capex: Apple is the least capex-intensive AI story in this group, which makes it a useful contrast. Capital expenditure is estimated at about $13.5 billion in fiscal 2026 and $15.4 billion in fiscal 2027, far below the hyperscalers. Investors are not looking to Apple for a hyperscaler-style infrastructure buildout. Instead, the focus is on whether Apple can maintain earnings durability, service-led monetisation, and product ecosystem resilience while the market increasingly rewards AI-linked growth elsewhere.

What to watch: Apple is the least direct AI infrastructure trade of the group, so the focus is less on AI hype and more on resilience.

Services: Revenue is estimated at about $30.4 billion, up 14%.
iPhone: Still the key driver of sentiment, especially around demand and upgrade behaviour.
Mac: Mac sales could surprise positively, helped by stronger Mac Mini demand.
Greater China: Investors will want to know whether recent improvement is sustainable.
Margins and product mix: Apple does not need explosive growth, but it does need to defend premium profitability.

Stock price and valuation view: Apple is not the cleanest way to play the AI enthusiasm driving the rest of the group, but it remains one of the market’s clearest durability stories. Even so, the stock is still down about 2% year-to-date, which suggests investors are not fully convinced that steadiness alone is enough in a market that is rewarding more direct AI exposure. At roughly 28x forward earnings, Apple is also trading at a richer multiple than most of its mega-cap peers. That means the bar is not low. The company does not need a dramatic AI reveal next week, but it does need to remind investors why it still deserves that premium as a mega-cap compounder. If Services remains strong, margins hold, and China looks more stable, that may be enough. But if the forward message feels too incremental, the stock risks looking expensive as well as unexciting.

Bull case: Services growth remains firm, margins hold up, and management signals that China trends are improving rather than merely bouncing.

Bear case: The quarter is acceptable but the forward message feels incremental, especially if Services growth slows or China remains uneven.

What matters across all five

The key question is whether demand for AI products and services is still strong enough to justify the capex wave now rolling through Big Tech. Microsoft and Amazon will shape confidence in cloud and AI infrastructure. Alphabet and Meta will test whether AI spending is improving monetisation rather than just inflating costs. Apple will show whether mega-cap resilience still holds even outside the pure AI buildout story.

In short, the market can still forgive big spending. It may be far less willing to forgive vague spending.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

Charu Chanana

Chief Investment Strategist

Saxo Markets

Topics: Equities Theme Category - Equities Artificial Intelligence Theme - Artificial intelligence Artificial Intelligence Apple Inc. Apple Microsoft Corp. Microsoft Microsoft Microsoft Corp. Amazon.com Amazon Facebook Inc Amazon.com Alphabet Meta Platforms Inc.

Asia Market Quick Take – 22 April, 2026

Wed, 22 Apr 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take –22 April, 2026

Key points:

Macro: US-Iran talks stall; US retail sales rise 1.7% vs 1.4% expected
Equities: Apple falls 2.5%, dragging the SP500
FX: Dollar climbs on stalled US‑Iran talks, strong US data; euro, sterling lag
Commodities: WTI near $90 after 10% two-day surge while silver fell
Fixed income: Treasury yields up across the curve; 10Y +4 bps to 4.29%

------------------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

US‑Iran peace talks are stalled and the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly closed after Iran refused talks and vowed not to reopen the route while US naval interceptions continue. Trump extended the ceasefire pending a unified Iranian proposal. The conflict is curbing supply, with demand destruction near 4 million barrels per day and possibly rising to 5 million (about 5% of global supply), mainly impacting Asia.
US retail sales rose 1.7% in March 2026, beating the 1.4% forecast and marking the fastest growth since March 2025, led by a 15.5% jump in gasoline station receipts amid higher fuel prices. Most major categories posted gains, and core retail sales climbed 0.7%, above the 0.2% forecast.
Japan’s trade surplus widened to JPY 667.0 billion in March 2026 from JPY 529.8 billion a year earlier, but missed the JPY 1,106 billion forecast. Exports rose 11.7% to a record JPY 11,003.3 billion, outpacing imports, which grew 10.9% to JPY 10,336.3 billion amid strong domestic demand after late-2025 stimulus.
Fed Chair nominee Warsh said there is a short window to bring inflation down, the Fed’s balance sheet should be smaller and avoid long-term Treasuries, and his disagreements with Powell are purely policy-related. He denied reports Trump pushed him to cut rates, saying he never sought such commitments. Warsh added that inflation is improving but more work is needed and argued the Fed lacks legal authority to issue a digital currency and should not pursue one.
US private employers added an average of 54,750 jobs per week in the four weeks to April 4, 2026, up from a revised 40,250 and marking a fifth straight week of improving hiring and the highest pace since ADP’s weekly tracking began in September 2025.

Equities:

US - S&P 500 fell 0.6% to 7,064.01, while the Nasdaq 100 declined 0.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.6%. Markets initially rose but reversed course after Vice President Vance called off his Pakistan trip, though futures recovered in after-hours trading following Trump's ceasefire extension announcement. Apple contributed the most to the S&P 500 decline, falling 2.5%, while Tractor Supply had the largest drop, plunging 11.7%. United Health Group +7% as it beat Q1 expectations and offered strong 2026 guidance as it authorizes $2b buyback in Q2.In after-hours trading, Capital One, Interactive Brokers, and Intuitive Surgical posted gains.
EU - European stocks declined on Tuesday as investors weighed earnings and tracked Middle East developments ahead of Wednesday's ceasefire deadline. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.9% to 616.03, its largest decline since April 7. Healthcare led declines, down 2%, while food, beverage, tobacco, and industrials also underperformed. Energy rose 0.4%, tracking Brent crude's jump to about $98 per barrel. The DAX fell 0.6% to 24,270.87 in Frankfurt, with MTU Aero Engines dropping 5.8%. Royal Unibrew had the largest drop in the Stoxx 600, falling 24.8%. Rolls-Royce Holdings contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 6.5%.
Asia - Asian markets showed mixed performance on Tuesday, with South Korea's Kospi surging to a record high while other markets posted modest gains. The Kospi climbed 2.7% to 6,388.47, powered by chipmakers as the artificial intelligence trade regained momentum amid optimism over potential US-Iran peace talks. SK IE Technology jumped 10%, while technology megacaps including TSMC and SK Hynix led regional gains. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.9%, adding 524.28 points, as bank and tech issues advanced on earnings results. Hong Kong markets finished in the green, with Nvidia supplier Victory Giant surging 50% on its trading debut following the city's biggest IPO this year. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.9% to its highest in seven weeks. However, Wednesday's opening showed caution, with the Kospi opening flat at 6,387.57 and Sapporo Holdings falling 4.9% after announcing plans to close its US plant.

Earnings this week:

Wednesday - AT&T, Boeing, China Mobile, IBM, Tesla, Lam Research, Vertiv, GE Vernova, Boeing, Texas Instruments
Thursday - Lockheed Martin, American Express, Intel
Friday - Procter & Gamble
Sunday - Verizon

FX:

USD climbed, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index up 0.4% to its highest since April 10, as US–Iran peace talks stalled after Vice President JD Vance’s trip to Pakistan was cancelled, even though President Trump extended the ceasefire.
USDJPY gained to 159.35 as the BOJ is expected to keep rates on hold next week amid Iran-related risks, though it remains inclined to tighten over time.
NZDUSD inched higher to 0.5897 after inflation in New Zealand stayed above the RBNZ’s 1–3% target, boosting odds of a July hike.
EUR underperformed, with EURUSD down 0.4% to 1.1747 as German investor sentiment fell to a three-year low, while GBPUSD slipped 0.2% to 1.3508 amid fresh political pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer following testimony about alleged interference in Peter Mandelson’s US ambassadorship vetting.

Commodities:

Oil held a two-day gain after President Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran. West Texas Intermediate traded near $90 per barrel, after adding almost 10% in the prior two sessions, while Brent closed below $99.
Gold edged higher in early trade after President Trump said the US will extend its cease-fire with Iran. Front-month Comex gold futures had fallen earlier in the session.
Silver fell 4.43% to $76.411, marking the largest one-day dollar and percentage decline since March 26, 2026.

Fixed income:

Treasury yields rose across the curve, with the 10-year yield rising 3.2 basis points to 4.286% and the 30-year yield rising 1.2 basis points to 4.893%. Treasuries extended losses after reports that Vice President Vance's trip to Pakistan was called off, with yields cheaper by up to 7 basis points across 2-year yields.
Vanguard is boosting its holdings of Treasuries, taking advantage of higher yields following the Middle East conflict to lock in rates and hedge against risks of a potential growth slowdown.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

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Apple: an era ends, but what comes next?

Tue, 21 Apr 2026 12:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Tim Cook turned Apple into a compounding machine through iPhone scale, services growth, and massive share buybacks.

John Ternus now inherits a stronger Apple, but also one that needs a clearer hardware and artificial intelligence story.

The next era will be judged less by efficiency and more by whether Apple can still create products that feel new and necessary.

The end of one Apple, the start of another

Apple is one of the most successful companies ever built. It started in a garage in 1976 with Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak. Now, after more than a decade under Tim Cook, the company is preparing for another leadership change, and that makes this more than a corporate handover. It is a moment that invites investors to ask a bigger question: what does the next version of Apple look like in an age shaped by artificial intelligence, new hardware, and much higher expectations?

Cook took over as chief executive officer, or CEO, in 2011 after Jobs. Since then, some critics have argued that Apple has become less radical and less inventive than it was in the Jobs years. That debate will probably never go away. What is much harder to debate is the shareholder outcome. Under Cook, Apple has delivered one of the great stock market runs of the modern era.

By September, John Ternus, Apple’s current hardware chief, is set to take over as CEO. That points to the start of a new phase for the company, one where the old “think different” spirit may need to find a more modern shape. Apple now has to prove that it can adapt to the artificial intelligence race not only with software, but also with products people actually want to use.

The Tim Cook years were less flashy, but hugely effective

From a shareholder perspective, Tim Cook’s time at the top has been extraordinary. Since he became CEO in 2011, Apple’s share price has risen by more than 1,800%. Over the same period, the S&P 500, the broad US stock market index, returned a little over 450%. That is not just outperformance. That is domination with very neat spreadsheets.

The financial story behind that success is quite straightforward. Since 2011, the iPhone has remained the core engine of the business. Apple generated just over 40 billion USD of iPhone revenue in 2011. Today, that figure is above 200 billion USD a year. Few products in corporate history have scaled with the same consistency, and even fewer have remained so central to a business for so long.

That matters because Cook’s Apple did not need to reinvent the wheel every other year. Instead, it turned one hugely successful product into a global ecosystem, then kept improving, expanding, and monetising that ecosystem with remarkable discipline. It is not the most romantic version of innovation, but investors rarely complain when discipline comes wrapped in compounding.

Source: Bloomberg, Saxo Bank

The quiet force behind the share price

There is another reason Apple’s stock has done so well under Cook, and it is a little less glamorous than a new product launch. Apple has generated enormous amounts of free cash flow, which is the cash left after the company has funded the investments needed to run and grow the business.

From 2010 to 2022, Apple’s annual free cash flow rose from a little over 20 billion USD to more than 110 billion USD. That gave management unusual flexibility. Apple could keep investing in the business, while also returning a huge amount of capital to shareholders through share buybacks.

Those buybacks matter more than many people realise. When a company reduces its share count over time, each remaining share represents a slightly larger claim on the business. In Apple’s case, that effect has been significant. Someone who owned 1% of Apple in 2012 would, with the same number of shares today, own roughly 1.8% of the company. That is a powerful tailwind, even if it does not make for a very exciting keynote presentation.

So, from an investor’s perspective, the Cook formula has been clear. Scale the iPhone. Build a larger and richer services layer around it. Generate huge free cash flow. Use part of that cash to buy back stock. It is a very effective model, even if it lacks the theatre of the Jobs years.

Source: Bloomberg, Saxo Bank, figures in USD billions.

Why the leadership change matters now

This is exactly why the transition to John Ternus matters. Apple’s problem is not that the Cook model failed. It is that the next decade may require a different balance. Under Cook, Apple became a master of optimisation. Under Ternus, it may need to become more ambitious again, especially in hardware.

That does not mean Apple has produced nothing new in recent years. AirPods and Apple Watch have both been successful, and they are far from trivial. But it is also true that several bigger hardware ambitions never quite became reality. Projects such as an Apple car or a television set never turned into major products, while the recently launched Vision Pro augmented reality, or AR, headset is still far from proving itself as a mass-market success.

Apple has also pushed more software-led extensions into the ecosystem, including Apple TV and Apple CarPlay. These are useful additions, but they do not fully answer the harder question investors are now asking. Where is the next major hardware category, and how does Apple make it feel essential in a world increasingly shaped by artificial intelligence?

The appointment of Ternus, who currently leads hardware, suggests Apple understands that question very well. The company may decide that the next phase requires a little less emphasis on buybacks and a little more emphasis on investment. Compared with Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet, Apple has spent far less on data centres and artificial intelligence infrastructure. That may continue, but the Ternus era could also mark the beginning of a more assertive Apple, one that invests more heavily in future devices, tighter hardware and software integration, and what it calls Apple Intelligence.

Source: Bloomberg, Saxo Bank, figures in billions.

The real question for investors

For long-term investors, this is what makes the story timely and relevant. Apple is not trying to recover from weakness. It is trying to evolve from a position of enormous strength. That is a much better problem to have, but it is still a real test.

The next chapter will not be judged only on whether Apple can keep selling iPhones and expanding services. It will be judged on whether the company can still surprise people, shape new consumer habits, and turn artificial intelligence into something more tangible than a feature list. In other words, Apple now has to prove that operational excellence and bold product vision can still live in the same company at the same time.

That is what makes this leadership shift so interesting. One era ends with Apple richer, larger, and more efficient than ever. The next one begins with a simpler challenge, at least on paper: to show that the world’s most polished machine can still dream a little.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles

From chatbots to chip racks: where AI profits may actually end up

Tue, 21 Apr 2026 08:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Amazon’s Anthropic deal shows AI funding is increasingly about chips, cloud and power, not just software.
ASML and TSMC suggest the AI build-out is still very much alive, and scarce capacity still holds pricing power.
Nvidia still matters, but custom chips and long contracts are making the “picks and shovels” trade more specialised.

A chatbot writes the poem, answers the email, and gets all the applause. The bill, however, often lands somewhere else. That is what makes Amazon’s expanded Anthropic partnership so interesting. On 20 April 2026, Amazon announced it would invest up to USD 25 billion in Anthropic, while Anthropic committed to spend more than USD 100 billion over the next decade on Amazon Web Services technology. This is less a venture funding headline than a long-term capacity reservation dressed in startup clothing.

The funding round that is really a utility contract

The most revealing part of the Amazon-Anthropic announcement is not the cheque. It is the plumbing. Anthropic said it would secure up to 5 gigawatts of current and future Trainium chip capacity, expand inference, meaning the running of models after training, in Asia and Europe, and keep deepening its use of Amazon’s cloud stack. Amazon also said more than 100,000 customers already run Claude models on Amazon Web Services. That begins to sound less like backing a promising artificial intelligence lab and more like signing up a large industrial customer for the next decade.

That matters because AI is becoming capital-intensive in a very old-fashioned way. Software still matters, of course. But once demand scales, the winners are often the firms that own scarce inputs, not the ones with the flashiest demo. In AI, those scarce inputs are compute, advanced chips, networking, cooling, and the data-centre capacity needed to keep the whole system running. In other words, the chatbot may charm the user, but the rack gets paid.

The glamour is on the screen, but the cash may sit behind the curtain

The recent updates from ASML and TSMC make that harder to ignore. ASML lifted its 2026 revenue outlook as customers pressed ahead with expansion plans tied to artificial intelligence demand. A day later, TSMC raised its full-year growth outlook and pointed to capital spending landing at the high end of its range. That is not the tone of an industry stepping back for breath. It is the tone of builders asking for more concrete, more steel and a bigger site.

That is the more useful investor lens. Artificial intelligence is no longer only a software story. It is increasingly an industrial build-out, complete with bottlenecks, lead times and supply constraints. The visible part is still the chatbot, the assistant and the model demo. The less visible part is the factory, the foundry, the chip rack and the power bill. When demand runs ahead of supply, the companies that control key equipment and production capacity can end up with steadier economics than the businesses closer to the user.

Nvidia still sits at the centre of this world. Its graphics processing units, or GPUs, remain the benchmark for training advanced models. But the market is also shifting towards inference, which is the running of models after they have been trained. That part of the market places a bigger premium on speed, efficiency and cost. It opens the door to alternatives such as Google’s tensor processing units, or TPUs, Amazon’s Trainium chips and other custom designs built for narrower, more specific tasks. The artificial intelligence race is not moving away from infrastructure. It is moving deeper into it.

Not all shovels look the same anymore

This is where the old “just buy the shovel sellers” line starts to get a bit lazy. The shovels are no longer generic. Broadcom has signed a deal through 2031 to develop Google’s custom artificial intelligence chips and separately agreed to provide Anthropic access to about 3.5 gigawatts of artificial intelligence computing capacity from 2027. Google is also exploring additional chip designs with Marvell, including a memory processing unit and a new tensor processing unit aimed at running models more efficiently.

That changes the investor map. The earlier version of the AI trade was simple: Nvidia sells powerful chips, everyone queues up, end of story. The newer version is more crowded, more specialised and more strategic. Some customers want to reduce dependence on outside suppliers. Some want custom chips that lower costs for specific tasks. Some want tighter bundles that combine chips, software and cloud infrastructure into one sticky package. The profit pool may still sit with the picks and shovels, but now the tools are bespoke, the contracts are longer and switching costs may matter as much as the silicon itself. Slightly less poetic, perhaps, but much more useful.

Saxo Bank in-house framework.

Risks worth watching before the hard hats get carried away

There are still a few obvious traps. First, capacity can stay scarce until it suddenly does not. If hyperscalers start trimming capital expenditure, or if enterprise demand proves slower than expected, today’s shortages can become tomorrow’s overbuild. Second, custom chips are not magically safer than standard ones. They still face delays, software headaches and design missteps. The fact that Google has been working to make TPUs easier to use with popular developer tools is a useful reminder that hardware alone is not enough. Third, the whole chain remains concentrated. If a small number of foundries, toolmakers and cloud platforms control the bottlenecks, any disruption can travel far and fast.

The investor playbook

Separate the model winners from the infrastructure toll collectors. The overlap is real, but it is not always neat.
Watch hyperscaler earnings for comments on capacity, utilisation and inference, not just headline artificial intelligence revenue.
Treat custom chips as a sign of specialisation, not proof that Nvidia is finished.
Follow the full bundle: chips, cloud, software tools, and access to power and data-centre space.

Where the money may really land

The simplest way to read this moment is also the most useful. AI still looks like magic on the screen, but it increasingly behaves like heavy industry underneath. The Amazon-Anthropic deal says the real contest is not just who makes the smartest model. It is also who can secure the compute, book the capacity, and keep the infrastructure busy for years. That does not make the chatbot unimportant. It just means the economics may end up favouring the firms that own the rails behind it. In this phase of the AI race, the cleverest answer may still come from a model, but the fattest invoice may come from the machine room.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles Theme - Artificial intelligence Artificial Intelligence

Asia Market Quick Take – 21 April, 2026

Tue, 21 Apr 2026 01:00:00 Z

Key points:

Macro: Iran to send delegation to US for talks before ceasefire ends
Equities: Apple names John Ternus new CEO; Amazon+2.7% on $5B Anthropic investment
FX: Dollar dips slightly as oil-driven NOK outperforms amid Middle East tensions
Commodities: Brent drops up to 1.1% to $94.44 after Monday’s 5.6% gain
Fixed income: NZ bonds drop as OIS fully price three RBNZ hikes by year-end

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

Iran will send a delegation to Islamabad for new US talks before the ceasefire ends, reversing its earlier stance. Trump says he’s unlikely to extend the truce without a deal and will keep the Strait of Hormuz blocked until then. Key disputes include the strait’s status, Iran’s nuclear program, and regional tensions.
New Zealand’s annual inflation was 3.1% in March 2026, unchanged from December and above the 2.9% forecast. Housing and utilities led increases, driven by higher electricity and local rates, with food and transport also adding pressure. Inflation eased in clothing, communication, and recreation, while education was steady. Quarterly CPI rose 0.9%, up from 0.6% in Q4.
Canada’s annual inflation rose to 2.4% in March 2026 from 1.8%, just below the 2.5% forecast, mainly due to a jump in energy costs linked to Middle East conflict. Energy inflation swung to 3.9% from -9.3%, lifting transport inflation to 3.7%, while shelter and recreation/education also picked up. Food inflation eased to 4% from 5.4%. Monthly CPI rose 0.9%, driven by a 21.2% surge in gasoline prices.
Germany’s producer prices fell 0.2% year-on-year in March 2026, the smallest drop in a year, as energy prices declined less sharply and mineral oil products rose. Non-durable consumer goods fell on cheaper food, while capital, durable consumer, and intermediate goods increased. Excluding energy, prices rose 1.3%. Month-on-month, producer prices jumped 2.5%, driven by a 7.5% surge in energy costs.

Equities:

US - S&P 500 slipped 0.2% from its all-time high, halting a five-day advance amid uncertainty over peace talks between the US and Iran. The Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.3% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed. Apple shares slipped in late trading after the company announced that CEO Tim Cook will hand the reins to hardware boss John Ternus on September 1, when Cook will transition to executive chairman. Amazon shares rose 2.7% in after-hours trading on news it will invest $5 billion in Anthropic, with the potential for up to $20 billion more based on commercial milestones. Alaska Air Group withdrew its guidance, citing uncertainty around the cost of fuel from the war in Iran, with shares falling 4.9% after the bell.
EU - European equity markets declined as renewed Middle East tensions weighed on sentiment. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.8%, its biggest move since falling 1% on April 7. The DAX fell 1.2% to 24,417.80 in Frankfurt, while the FTSE 100 closed down 0.6% at 10,609.08 in London. The EURO STOXX 50 Index ended 1.24% lower at 5,982.63, its largest one-day point and percentage decline since March 26. SAP contributed the most to the Stoxx 600 decline, decreasing 3.9%, while Rolls-Royce led the FTSE 100 lower with a 3.7% drop. Commerzbank formally rejected UniCredit's takeover bid, with Chancellor Friedrich Merz saying his government rejects hostile and aggressive tactics in Germany's banking industry.
Asia - Asian stocks rose as investors shrugged off heightened tensions between the US and Iran to focus on prospects for further talks and strong local tech earnings. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.8% before paring most of its advance. South Korea's Kospi Index rose 0.4% to 6,219.09, with SK Hynix contributing the most to the index gain by increasing 3.4%. Stocks in Hong Kong led gains in the region, while South Korean shares erased their Iran war losses. Equity-index futures pointed to gains in Japan, Hong Kong and Australia for Tuesday's session as signs Iran may join talks with the US fostered cautious optimism about progress in the Middle East ahead of the looming ceasefire deadline.

Earnings this week:

Tuesday - General Electric, 3M, United Health
Wednesday - AT&T, Boeing, China Mobile, IBM, Tesla, Lam Research, Vertiv, GE Vernova, Boeing, Texas Instruments
Thursday - Lockheed Martin, American Express, Intel
Friday - Procter & Gamble
Sunday - Verizon

FX:

USD edged slightly lower on Monday, while the NOK led G-10 gains as oil prices climbed after renewed Middle East tensions undermined hopes for US–Iran peace talks. Analysts say the dollar’s tight range reflects uncertainty around US economic and policy outlooks, while NOK is buoyed by its oil-linked status, strong external accounts, and relatively high yields. USDNOK down 0.7% to 9.3150.
EUR gained 0.20% to $1.1790, snapping a two-session losing streak and posting its largest one-day percentage gain since April 14. Mizuho strategists expect the euro will probably head lower in the short-term as pricing for ECB interest-rate increases is unlikely to grow past the two hikes already reflected.
USD gained 0.12% to 158.82 JPY, rising for the sixth time in the past eight sessions. Demand for bullish yen exposure through options remains firm, with one-week risk reversals in USDJPY rallying to 121 basis points, puts over calls, the most bearish sentiment for the greenback since March 9.

Commodities:

Oil prices climbed following the latest rise of tensions between the United States and Iran, though the moves were more modest than earlier in the war. Crude lost some ground in the US session to trim Monday's opening jump, while brent crude fell as much as 1.1% to $94.44 a barrel after Monday’s 5.6% gain.
Gold consolidates as traders weigh possible US-Iran talks and the looming end of the cease-fire. The US and Iran plan to hold peace talks in Islamabad this week. Gold's trajectory will remain closely tied to the developments in the Middle East and their impact on energy markets and inflation expectations.
Copper cash-to-three-month spread was quoted at -$75.46 a ton on April 20 on the London Metal Exchange, decreasing $10.38 from the previous trading day. Top-20 brokers on the Shanghai Futures Exchange registered aggregate net-short positions of copper contracts across front months.

Fixed income:

US Treasuries saw a steady move higher over the US session, unwinding an opening gap lower and weakness seen over the Asia and early London sessions. The 10-year yield was little changed at 4.249% while the 30-year yield fell 0.5 basis points to 4.882%. Bank of America strategists recommend buying the belly of the curve, expecting them to rally as the market increases bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
New Zealand bonds dropped as faster-than-expected inflation fueled bets on Reserve Bank interest-rate hikes. The yield on the NZ 2-year note climbed 8 basis points to 3.50% while the 10-year debt advanced 4 basis points to 4.63%. Overnight-indexed swaps fully price in three RBNZ rate hikes by year-end.
Following Friday's sharp rally in Treasuries, open interest jumped in both bond and SOFR futures, indicating new long positions supporting the gains seen across the curve.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

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Oil is no longer just an energy story

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 09:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Higher oil now affects inflation, rate hopes and far more sectors than energy alone.
The pain often appears first in transport, travel, chemicals and thin-margin consumer businesses.
Oil has become a stress test for business quality. It shows which companies can absorb higher costs, protect margins and keep moving, and which ones start to creak as pressure builds.

Oil used to live on the commodities page. It now wanders into almost every other page of the market. That is the real shift. When crude rises because of a serious supply shock, it does not stay politely inside the energy sector. It moves into freight bills, airline fuel, fertiliser, food, inflation data, bond yields and, before long, equity valuations. On 17 April 2026, Brent crude pulled back as investors clung to the idea that the Strait of Hormuz might reopen and calm the market. By early 20 April 2026, that calm had proved fragile, with prices climbing again as the route stayed effectively constrained. This was not just another commodity wobble. It was the market treating oil as a real macro problem again.

The reason this matters now is simple. The Strait of Hormuz is not a niche shipping lane. The International Energy Agency says it carried nearly 20 million barrels a day of oil and oil products in 2025, roughly a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade. Alternative routes can redirect only 3.5 to 5.5 million barrels a day. In plain English, if that artery is squeezed, the world feels it quickly and not very selectively.

The first hit lands in the real economy

The market often talks about oil as if it were a chart. Companies experience it as a bill. Airlines are the clearest example because fuel sits close to the heart of their cost base. In March, airline shares were hit as oil jumped above 105 USD a barrel, while jet fuel prices surged and fares rose. By 17 April, Singapore jet fuel closed at 204.13 USD a barrel, more than double the 93.45 USD level on 27 February, the day before the war began. That is what makes higher oil dangerous. It does not only raise costs. It forces businesses to choose between higher prices, lower margins, or both. None of those options wins awards at earnings season.

The same logic spreads well beyond travel. Oil and gas are inputs into chemicals, packaging, plastics, transport and parts of agriculture. Federal Reserve official Alberto Musalem said on 15 April that the oil shock was already feeding into gasoline, shipping, travel and food through higher fertiliser and related costs. This is how a barrel becomes broad inflation pressure. It starts at the pump, then sneaks into supply chains, and finally turns up in places investors hoped would stay boring. Boring, sadly, has left the building.

Then the bond market starts paying attention

Higher oil matters twice. First through costs, then through interest rates. If energy stays expensive for long enough, inflation becomes harder to bring down. That matters because lower inflation is what gives central banks room to cut rates. Musalem said the oil shock could keep core inflation near 3% and rates on hold for some time. Reuters also noted on 14 April that oil prices were about 40% higher than before the conflict, Treasury yields had risen, and markets had largely ruled out the rate cuts they expected earlier this year.

That second step is where the story stops being “about energy” and starts becoming “about equities”. When bond yields rise and rate cuts get delayed, the pressure spreads to the parts of the market that depend most on cheap money and patient optimism. Rate-sensitive growth stocks feel it because more of their value sits in profits expected far into the future. Consumer businesses with weak pricing power feel it because higher costs meet a customer who is already paying more for fuel and food. Industrials feel it through freight and input costs. The barrel rolls downhill, and many sectors are standing at the bottom.

The new market map is less about sectors and more about stamina

This is why the useful investor question changes. It is no longer enough to ask which sector benefits from higher oil. The better question is which business models can absorb it. Companies with strong margins, essential demand and room to pass on costs usually cope better than businesses that run on thin margins, heavy fuel bills or constant financing optimism. In that sense, oil becomes a stress test for quality. It separates companies that can bend from those that snap, or at least complain very loudly on the next conference call.

The macro version of that stress test is already visible. The International Monetary Fund said on 14 April that its “reference” outlook assumes oil normalises in the second half of 2026, but it warned the world is drifting closer to a worse scenario. In that adverse case, oil stays around 100 USD this year and global growth slows to 2.5%. In the severe case, oil averages 110 USD in 2026 and the world edges close to recession. That is why oil matters even for investors who never touch an energy stock. It can change the growth and rate backdrop for everything else.

That is also why our HALO shortlist matters here. Heavy Asset, Low Obsolescence companies often prove more durable when oil moves from energy story to market stress test, because they usually sit closer to essential demand, real assets and steadier pricing power.

Risks worth watching

The first risk is duration. A short oil spike is unpleasant. A persistent one changes behaviour. Watch freight costs, jet fuel, diesel and food-linked inputs, not just headline crude. The second risk is inflation expectations. Central banks can often look through a brief energy shock, but they worry when households and businesses start acting as if higher inflation will stick. The third risk is false relief. Oil has already swung sharply on ceasefire headlines and reopening hopes, only for supply fears to return. In this market, one optimistic headline can move prices, but it cannot move tankers, repair infrastructure or rebuild trust quite so quickly.

When oil becomes a quality test

Oil used to be easy to file away as “the energy story”. That folder no longer works. When a key supply route is under pressure and crude stops behaving like a quiet input, the effects spread into transport, food, inflation, interest rates and finally the market’s view of what a company is worth. That is why this matters for long-term investors.

The next big oil move may not tell you only what happens to energy shares. It may tell you which businesses have pricing power, which consumers are under strain, and which rate-sensitive parts of the market still rely on a friendlier world. Oil starts in the barrel. It ends in the whole portfolio.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles

Asia Market Quick Take – 20 April, 2026

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 20 April, 2026

Key points:

Macro: US seizes Iran vessel; Iran reclaims control of Straits of Hormuz
Equities: US futures -0.9% after notching new highs as Iran says SoH remains closed
FX:USD strengthened on the renewed Iran tension; AUD and NZD fell
Commodities:Oil prices recover losses as WTI crude surges 7.5% above $90
Fixed income: Treasury yields rebound, reversing Friday’s drop

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

US forces seized an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman after it ignored orders while leaving Hormuz, while Iran targeted ships and claimed control of the strait, citing US violations of a ceasefire. Hopes for peace have faded despite renewed talks, and the prolonged conflict has triggered a major energy shock, stoking inflation risks and fears of a global slowdown.
Fed’s Waller said policymakers understand inflation risks and may hold rates if war-driven inflation coincides with weaker jobs. Fed’s Daly said spending remains solid, but the outlook hinges on how long oil prices and the conflict persist.

Equities:

US: The S&P 500 closed at a fresh record on Friday, gaining 1.2% as the index jumped more than 3% for the third consecutive week. The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.3% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.8%. Big Tech stocks powered the rally, with the Magnificent Seven technology giants up 20% since the March 30 bottom, reversing a 17% decline. However, US stock futures fell 0.8% to 0.9% in Sunday evening trading as renewed Iran tensions and the Strait of Hormuz standoff sapped risk sentiment.Eli Lilly is in advanced talks to acquireKelonia Therapeutics for more than $2 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. QXO agreed to acquire insulation products company TopBuild for $17 billion. Meta plans its first wave of 8,000 layoffs on May 20.
EU: European stocks advanced for a fourth straight week on growing optimism that the Middle East conflict may be nearing an end. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 1.6% on Friday with most sectors rising, led by travel and leisure shares as airline stocks rallied. Energy shares dropped the most in a year, dragged down by Shell and BP as oil prices plunged. The DAX rose 2.3% to 24,702.24 in Frankfurt, the FTSE 100 climbed 0.7% to 10,667.63 in London, and the Swiss Market Index gained 1.9% in Zurich. ASML, Infineon, and Rolls-Royce were among the top performers across European markets.
Asia: Asian markets opened mixed as renewed Middle East tensions overshadowed last week's strong rally. The Nikkei Stock Average opened 0.6% higher at 58,821.16, led by auto stocks with Honda Motor up 2.6% and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries 3.3% higher as investorsmaintained hopes for possible US-Iran peace talks. South Korea's Kospi opened 0.4% higher at 6,213.92 despite the won sliding as much as 1.5% on oil price jumps. China's ChiNext Index rose 6.7% last week to the highest since 2015, dominated by technology and new-energy names. Orient Securities plans to acquire a 100% stake in Shanghai Securities through a combination of A-share issuance and cash payment, creating a firm with around $86 billion in assets. However, futures markets pointed to a bumpy start as the continued Strait of Hormuz standoff revived uncertainty that Wall Street had been eager to look past.

Earnings this week:

Tuesday - General Electric, 3M, United Health
Wednesday - AT&T, Boeing, China Mobile, IBM, Tesla, Lam Research, Vertiv, GE Vernova, Boeing, Texas Instruments
Thursday- Lockheed Martin, American Express, Intel
Friday - Procter & Gamble
Sunday- Verizon

FX:

USD strengthened broadly, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rising 0.2% as investors sought safe havens amid renewed Iran tensions, paring last week's 0.5% decline.
AUD fell 0.5% to 0.7140 after climbing 1.6% last week, while the NZDalso declined as the US seizure of an Iranian vessel and Tehran's reimposition of restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz sapped risk sentiment.
JPY weakened 0.2% to 158.92 against dollar after being the best-performing G10 currency on Friday, with near-term resistance around 160 continuing to hold.

Commodities:

Oil prices surged with West Texas Intermediate crude jumping 7.5% to $90.17 per barrel and Brent crude climbing 6.5% to $96.27 per barrel as Iran accused the United States of breaking the ceasefire and the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively shut to commercial shipping.
Gold fell to near $4,780 an ounce in early trading, wiping out much of last week's 1.7% gain, as renewed fears of energy-supply disruptions stoked inflation concerns.
Silver dropped 1.6% in early Asian trade amid renewed inflation concerns spurred by rebounding oil prices stemming from signs of re-escalating Middle East tensions.

Fixed income:

Treasury yields reversed Friday’s decline rising 2 to 3 basis points across the curve as oil prices climbed on renewed Iran tensions, with the 2-year note yield adding 3 basis points to 3.74% and the 10-year yield advancing 3 basis points to 4.28%.
The balance of risks points to a steeper yield curve as traders brace for potential near-term interest rate cuts and a shrinking balance sheet under a Federal Reserve led by Kevin Warsh, whose confirmation hearing is scheduled for April 21.
Japanese government bonds are expected to rise as Middle East tensions escalate, though gains are likely to be limited due to persistently high oil prices, with JGB futures edging higher in early Tokyo trade.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration. This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance. The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

Why Netflix fell after a strong quarter

Fri, 17 Apr 2026 11:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Netflix beat first-quarter numbers, but second-quarter guidance arrived a little lighter than investors wanted.
The real story is shifting from subscriber growth to monetisation, retention and engagement across formats.
Netflix still looks strong, but the bar is now high enough to make “good” feel oddly disappointing.

Netflix gave investors a familiar sort of surprise on 16 April 2026: a strong quarter looking back, and a slightly softer story looking ahead. The stock closed flat at 107.79 USD in regular trading, then slipped to 97.35 USD after hours, down 9.7%, after management guided for second-quarter earnings per share of 0.78 USD and revenue of 12.57 billion USD, both below Bloomberg consensus.

That reaction says a lot about where Netflix sits today. The business still delivers solid growth, with first-quarter revenue up 16% year on year to 12.25 billion USD and earnings per share at 1.23 USD, but the market is now far less interested in what Netflix just did than in how smoothly it can keep the engine running from here.

Q2 2026 Forecast: Company Guidance vs. Bloomberg Consensus

Saxo Bank analysis. Netflix's Q2 guidance against Bloomberg consensus estimates across key metrics. Chart generated using ASKB by BloombergAI.

That mix matters because it shows where Netflix now sits in market psychology. It is no longer judged like a fast-growing newcomer. It is judged like a very large, very successful platform that must keep proving there is another lever to pull. This quarter said there are several levers. The market just wanted them pulled harder, faster, and preferably all at once.

A beat on paper, a miss in spirit

On the surface, the quarter looks solid. Revenue grew faster than expected, operating income improved to roughly 4.0 billion USD, and operating margin reached 32.3%. Free cash flow rose sharply to 5.1 billion USD. The catch is that part of the earnings boost came from a 2.8 billion USD termination fee tied to Netflix’s abandoned media deal, so investors were never going to treat all of that improvement as repeatable. Great quarter, yes. Clean quarter, not entirely.

That is why guidance mattered more than the headline beat. Netflix said second-quarter content amortisation will be the highest year-on-year growth point of 2026 before easing later in the year. In simple terms, that means the accounting cost of shows and films hits harder now, which squeezes near-term margins even if the longer-term content slate stays healthy. Markets tend to greet that kind of nuance with all the patience of a toddler in a supermarket queue.

The business is growing up, not slowing down

The more useful reading is that Netflix is evolving from a pure subscriber story into a monetisation and engagement story. Management kept full-year revenue guidance at 50.7 billion USD to 51.7 billion USD and still expects advertising revenue to reach about 3 billion USD in 2026, roughly double last year’s level. It also said recent price changes have gone well. That matters because it shows Netflix can still charge more while broadening the business beyond the simple old formula of “add members, raise price, repeat.”

Netflix is also trying to become what it calls a “must-have service”, the first place people go for entertainment and the last they cancel. That ambition now stretches beyond films and series into live events, video podcasts, games and a redesigned mobile experience with a vertical discovery feed. Whether every experiment works is almost beside the point. The broader industry implication is clear: streaming is no longer just a library business. It is becoming a time-spent business, competing not only with other platforms but with every screen-based habit people have.

Why the industry should pay attention

Netflix’s letter makes one point especially well: this company is still large, but not finished. It says it reaches an audience approaching 1 billion people, yet still accounts for only about 5% of global TV viewing and has penetrated less than 45% of its broadband household market. That is a useful reminder for long-term investors. The story is no longer about whether streaming wins. It already has. The question is which platforms become habit-forming enough to monetise that win across ads, pricing, formats and retention.

This also helps explain why Reed Hastings stepping down from the board mattered to sentiment, even if it changes little in daily operations. When a company is shifting from founder era to scaled institution, investors become more sensitive to execution. A guidance miss and a symbolic leadership handover landing together is not fatal. It is just not the sort of combination that calms a nervous market.

Risks worth watching

The main risk is not that Netflix suddenly stops growing. It is that growth becomes more expensive, more incremental and harder to impress investors with. If content costs keep rising faster than revenue, margin pressure will return. If advertising grows but remains too small to move the whole group, that future pillar stays promising rather than proven. And if newer bets such as live events, podcasts and games lift engagement without lifting profit, investors may decide the story is getting broader but not better. Early warning signs are simple: weaker margin delivery, slower ad progress, or evidence that price rises start to hurt retention rather than help revenue.

When good is no longer enough

Netflix’s quarter was a useful reminder that stock market reactions and business quality are not always the same thing. The company delivers a strong first quarter, keeps growing, keeps widening its offer, and still gets marked down because the next quarter looks a touch less shiny. That may feel harsh, but it is also the cost of success.

At this scale, Netflix is no longer rewarded for simply being good. It is measured against the idea that it should be better every time. For long-term investors, that is the real lesson here. The business still looks strong. The stock simply reminds us that when expectations become premium entertainment, even a hit quarter can get a mixed review.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles Netflix Inc. Netflix

Oil, batteries and a cheaper Tesla: the next phase of the EV race

Fri, 17 Apr 2026 09:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Tesla’s reported cheaper-car pivot looks like a return to EV basics, not a side story.
Higher oil prices help the EV case, but they do not fix weak margins.
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. (CATL) shows that battery leaders may capture more value than many carmakers.

Tesla spends a lot of time being discussed as a robotaxi, software and artificial intelligence story. That is fair, up to a point. But the latest development says something simpler and, for investors, probably more useful. Tesla is reportedly working on a smaller, cheaper electric vehicle, after years of pushing the market to focus on autonomy and futuristic optionality. That matters because it suggests the old EV battle is back in charge: price, scale, battery cost and who can still make money when the shiny story meets a tired consumer.

That is the real hook here. Tesla is not just updating a product plan. It is admitting, indirectly, that the market has changed. In the first quarter of 2026, Tesla produced more than 408,000 vehicles but delivered just over 358,000, leaving a gap of more than 50,000 units. That is not a disaster, but it is a reminder that demand is no longer a one-way escalator. Tesla reports first-quarter earnings on 22 April 2026, so the next real test is whether management explains this as a temporary wobble or as part of a harder, more price-sensitive market.

Back to the driveway

Tesla’s reported cheaper model matters because it looks like a reality check. A lower-priced compact sport utility vehicle could help volumes, keep factories busier and give Tesla a better answer to Chinese rivals and to a more cautious buyer in Europe and the United States. It also comes with a catch the size of a showroom. Cheaper cars usually mean thinner margins, unless battery costs fall fast enough to compensate. That is why this is more than a Tesla story. It says the EV market is entering a phase where affordability may matter more than aspiration. Flashy launch events are nice. Monthly payments still tend to win arguments.

The broader electric vehicle backdrop is mixed rather than broken. Reuters reported that global EV registrations rose 3% in March 2026, with Europe up 37% to nearly 540,000 units, helped by higher petrol prices. North America, by contrast, fell 30% after the end of tax credits. That split is important. It shows that EV demand still responds to economics, but those economics now depend more on fuel prices, incentives and pricing discipline than on novelty alone. In other words, the market is growing up. Like all adults, it has started reading the energy bill.

Oil has entered the chat

This is where the current oil backdrop matters. Brent crude was around 94.93 USD a barrel on 15 April 2026, while West Texas Intermediate crude was around 91.29 USD, even after some cooling from earlier spikes. Physical oil grades briefly surged far above futures prices during the recent disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. For drivers, and therefore for carmakers, that means one thing: uncertainty at the pump is back. And when fuel becomes a headache, EVs and hybrids start looking less like ideology and more like maths.

That does not mean Tesla automatically wins. Higher oil prices can support EV demand, but they do not solve competition, financing costs or product fatigue. They simply improve the category’s pitch. For long-term investors, that is a useful distinction. Oil can lift interest in EVs, but only the right product mix, the right battery cost and the right manufacturing execution turn that interest into profits. This is one reason Tesla’s cheaper-car move matters now. It is a response to an EV market that may be helped by oil, but no longer rescued by excitement alone.

Why battery makers matter more now

If Tesla’s reported move is the reality check, CATL, or Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., is the second act. The Chinese battery giant beat first-quarter expectations this week, with profit up 48.5% year on year and revenue up 52.5%. Its share of the global electric vehicle battery market also climbed to 42.1% in early 2026, a reminder that more of the industry’s power is shifting toward the companies that control the battery bill. CATL’s own 2025 annual report said it held 39.2% of the global power battery market and 30.4% of global energy storage battery shipments. In February, it added another sign of where the market is heading, saying it would supply sodium-ion batteries for the world’s first mass-produced sodium-ion passenger car with Changan, due by mid-2026.

Why does that matter for Tesla and for investors looking at the wider EV chain? Because batteries are no longer a background component. They shape cost, charging speed, cold-weather performance, supply security and, increasingly, the balance of power in the industry. CATL is also reportedly considering another Hong Kong fundraising, which underlines a broader point: this industry still needs vast amounts of capital, and the companies providing the chemistry and scale may end up with more bargaining power than the brands selling the badge. Carmakers still sell the dream. Battery leaders increasingly control the economics.

The road can still get slippery

There are at least three risks to watch. First, Tesla’s cheaper-car pivot could help deliveries but pressure profitability if price cuts outrun cost savings. Second, oil could fall back quickly if geopolitics ease, which would soften one of the category’s current demand tailwinds. Third, battery leadership could make the EV market more unequal, with suppliers and low-cost manufacturers taking more value while premium carmakers fight harder for it. Early warning signs are straightforward: Tesla’s margin commentary on 22 April, inventory trends, battery pricing language from CATL, and whether Europe’s recent demand strength lasts once energy panic fades.

Investor playbook

Watch whether cheaper EVs expand demand, or simply move the same demand down-market.
Follow battery leaders as closely as car brands. The chemistry race now shapes the profit race.
Treat oil as a demand variable, not a magic wand. It can help adoption, but not fix execution.

Where the real EV battle sits

Tesla’s latest move brings the story back to the driveway. For all the talk of robotaxis, chips and humanoid robots, the near-term question is still whether Tesla can build a more affordable car that people want, at a margin investors can live with. That is why the CATL angle matters so much.

In this phase of the EV race, the winners may not be the companies with the loudest future story, but the ones with the best battery access, the lowest cost curve and the clearest answer to a simple customer question: why should I buy this now? In the electric age, the dream still matters. The battery bill may matter more.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Highlighted articles Tesla Motors Theme - Electric vehicles

Can earnings keep outrunning the macro shock? Banks say yes for now. Luxury says not so fast

Thu, 16 Apr 2026 08:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

The same macro shock helps banks that sell liquidity, hedging and advice, but hurts luxury groups that need calm and travel.
Strong bank earnings do not prove the economy is fine. They partly reflect unsettled markets doing what unsettled markets do.
Luxury weakness looks more like a mix of tourism pressure, Middle East disruption and softer discretionary demand than broad consumer collapse.

A messy macro backdrop often gets described as one giant verdict on the economy. This week’s earnings say that is too neat. Big United States banks show that volatility, trading and dealmaking can still turn uncertainty into revenue. Luxury groups show that geopolitical stress, disrupted travel and fragile high-end demand can hit sales rather quickly. Same shock, very different plumbing.

Source: Saxo Bank analysis. For illustrative purposes only and based on selected market reactions discussed in the article. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

The market reaction made the contrast clear without needing a spreadsheet. Bank shares generally held up or moved higher after earnings, while luxury names came under clear pressure. Investors were not making a grand judgment on the whole economy. They were reacting to which business models can still turn uncertainty into revenue, and which ones rely more heavily on confidence, travel and a steady spending mood.

When chaos becomes a product

For large banks, a messy quarter does not automatically mean a bad one. Recent results from JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America showed that trading desks, advisory work and deal activity can all stay busy when markets are unsettled. That is the key point. Banks do not just sit and watch volatility. In some parts of the business, they earn from it.

When markets swing, clients tend to do more, not less. They rebalance portfolios, hedge risks, raise capital and ask advisers for help. That can support earnings even when the wider backdrop feels noisy. It is a useful reminder that macro stress is not always just a cost. For parts of finance, it can also be demand.

Still, this is not a simple all-clear. Investors know that trading-driven strength can be helpful without being fully durable. If volatility cools, if rate expectations shift again, or if companies become more cautious about deals and listings, that earnings support may look less powerful. So the bank story is strong, but it is not effortless. It depends on the kind of activity that often comes with unsettled markets, not calm ones.

Luxury needs calm, confidence and boarding passes

Luxury looks almost like the mirror opposite, but only almost. Recent updates from Hermès, Kering and LVMH suggest the sector is not collapsing, but it is clearly more exposed to today’s geopolitical strain than parts of finance. The pressure is showing up less through a broad demand cliff and more through softer travel flows, weaker airport retail, disruption in the Middle East and a consumer mood that still looks cautious rather than carefree.

Hermès is a good example. Sales still grew 5.6% at constant exchange rates, but that was below Bloomberg expectations of 7.44%. In other words, this was not a disaster. It was a reminder that even the strongest luxury names can feel it when tourism slows and regional traffic weakens.

Kering’s message was more fragile. Gucci sales fell 8% in the quarter compared to last year, much worse than the 4.3% drop analysts expected on Bloomberg. That matters because Gucci is still the emotional and financial centre of the Kering story. It also reinforces the broader point that luxury does not just sell products. It sells confidence, movement and a certain ease of spending, all of which become harder to sustain when flights are disrupted and headlines turn tense.

LVMH adds a more balanced layer. Group sales rose 1% organically, but that still fell short of analysts expectations, as compiled by Bloomberg. The group still showed resilience in parts of the business, which helps explain why this is not a sector in free fall. But the broader message is still clear enough: luxury has become more exposed to travel disruption and regional instability at a time when demand was only gradually finding its footing again. That does not mean the luxury story is broken. It means the sector needs a calmer world more than banks do.

What this actually tells investors

The real lesson is not that banks are “safe” and luxury is “broken.” It is that earnings quality depends on what a company is paid to do. Banks earn from activity, spreads, hedging and advice. Luxury earns from desire, confidence, mobility and mood. When oil rises, headlines darken and routes become less predictable, those ingredients do not all move in the same direction. Some businesses get busier. Others get quieter.

Risks worth watching

The first risk is reading too much into one strong bank quarter. Trading revenue can be excellent precisely because markets are unsettled, which means it is helpful but not always repeatable. The second risk is assuming luxury weakness is only regional and temporary. If higher energy prices, weaker travel and softer confidence start feeding into broader discretionary spending, the pressure could spread beyond the Middle East link. The third risk sits between the two: if volatility stays high for the wrong reasons, it may lift trading desks in the short run but still cool borrowing, listings and corporate confidence later on.

Investor playbook

Separate macro headlines from business-model mechanics. Ask what actually drives revenue when markets turn noisy.
Watch deal pipelines and capital-markets activity, not just trading spikes, to judge whether bank strength is broadening.
Track tourism, airport retail and Gulf demand as early signals for luxury, especially in Europe.
Stay diversified across business models, because the same shock rarely sends every sector the same invoice.

Same storm, different roofs

The neat story would be that strong banks mean the economy is coping and weak luxury means the consumer is cracking. This week’s results argue for more humility. Banks are benefiting from a market that is busy, defensive and still willing to transact. Luxury is being hit by a world that feels less easy to travel through and less relaxed to spend in. Both can be true at once. For investors, that is the useful part. Macro shocks do not produce one verdict. They expose which companies get paid for turbulence and which ones quietly depend on calm. Same storm, different roofs, and very different earnings calls.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles

Asia Market Quick Take – 16 April, 2026

Thu, 16 Apr 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 16 April, 2026

Key points:

Macro: US & Iran looking to extend ceasefire to allow time for talks
Equities: Nasdaq reaches a new all time high; MSFT has best gain in a year
FX: Dollar slides on ceasefire optimism; CNH outperforms, JPY stays soft
Commodities: Commodities stabilise in midst of current ceasefire
Fixed income: Treasuries fell, yields rebounded from >2‑week closing lows

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

Washington and Tehran are weighing a ceasefire extension to allow more peace talks, while the US naval blockade keeps the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and markets on edge. Iran has warned it could retaliate by suspending shipments in nearby waters, and a second round of talks is expected to focus on reopening the strait and Iran’s nuclear program.
US businesses pulled back on hiring and spending due to uncertainty from the Iran war, according to the Federal Reserve's beige book report.
President Trump threatened to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell if he doesn't step down when his term expires on May 15.
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said the central bank is in no rush to raise interest rates despite the energy shock from the Iran conflict, noting markets got ahead of themselves with rate hike bets.
ECB officials are said to be leaning toward keeping interest rates unchanged in April, postponing their verdict on whether the Iran war fallout warrants a response.
Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said authorities are prepared for bold action on foreign exchange if needed after discussions with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
US import prices rose 0.8% m/m in March 2026 after 0.9% in February, below the 2% forecast, with fuel up 2.9% and nonfuel imports up 0.6%. They were 2.1% higher y/y, the biggest rise since December 2024.

Equities:

US: S&P 500 surged 0.8% to a record high of 7,022.95, closing above 7,000 for the first time since January, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.4% to reach a fresh all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%. Technology stocks led gains, with Microsoft rising 4.6% for its best daily performance in almost a year and Tesla climbing 6.7% for its largest percentage increase since November 2025. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley posted strong earnings, with Bank of America reporting a 17% profit jump and shares rising 1.8%. Carrier Global was the worst performer in the S&P 500, down over 10%. Robinhood Markets had the largest increase, rising 10.4%.Allbirds makes an announcement to pivot from shoemaking to AI infrastructure, resulting in a 582% gain.
EU: European stocks retreated, with the Stoxx 600 Index falling 0.4% from a six-week high as disappointing earnings from regional heavyweights weighed on sentiment. Luxury stocks were the biggest drag, with Hermes plunging 8.2% as the Middle East war dented sales and Kering slumping 9.3% as Gucci sales disappointed. Dutch chipmaking equipment giant ASML dropped 4.2% after its strong earnings report failed to impress investors following a 33% rally this year. The DAX in Germany rose 0.09% to 24,066.70, while the FTSE 100 in London fell 0.47% to 10,559.58. The Swiss Market Index closed 0.38% lower.
Asia: Asian stocks gained as the US and Iran stepped up efforts to arrange a second round of peace talks, reviving hopes for an end to hostilities in the Middle East. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.4%, led by gains in TSMC and Samsung Electronics. South Korea's Kospi outperformed, rising 2.1% to 6,091.39, its highest closing level since February 27, with Samsung Electronics contributing the most to the index gain by increasing 2.2%. The Nikkei Stock Average rose 0.4% to 58,134.24 on Wednesday, with futures up 0.6% at 58,620 on the SGX. Elliott Investment Management took a significant stake in Daikin Industries and urged the Japanese manufacturer to address undervaluation via margin expansion and higher shareholder returns. CATL’s Q1 2026 earnings beat expectations, with net income up 49% to 20.74b yuan and revenue up 52% to 129.13b yuan, supported by better ESS mix and cost control. It’s strengthening mineral supply, exploring up to US$5b fundraising.

Earnings this week:

Thursday: Taiwan Semiconductor, Netflix, Moutai, Pepsico

FX:

USDextended declines for an eighth straight day, posting its longest losing streak since June 2020, down about 1.9% over the period on optimism that Washington and Tehran are closer to extending a ceasefire.
The offshore CNH rose to a three-year high versus the dollar this week and is one of only a few currencies that managed to rise since the Iran conflict started, reflecting China's perceived resilience to the energy shock.
JPY edged lower against the dollar as expectations retreated that the Bank of Japan will hike rates this month, with USDJPY up 0.1% to 158.94, though traders kept bolstering their expectations on a stronger yen over the coming month. The JPY has hit a decade-low against the SGD.
EUR gained for eight straight sessions, rising 0.02% to $1.1800, its highest five pm New York rate since February 27, 2026.
AUD registered the best performance against the US dollar among 14 major currencies, strengthening 0.5%.

Commodities:

Oil prices stabilized after a nearly 8% slide on Tuesday, with WTI futures steady as the US and Iran considered extending their ceasefire by another two weeks to allow more time to negotiate a peace agreement.
Gold edged higher above $4,810/oz after a 1.1% drop on hopes for a two‑week US–Iran ceasefire extension easing inflation worries, even as Hormuz traffic remains choked by a US blockade and Iranian restrictions.
The global silver market is expected to remain in a deficit for a sixth consecutive year amid robust demand for bars and coins and declining supplies, with the 2026 deficit projected to widen by 15% to 46.3 million troy ounces.
Copper edged lower as traders eyed the prospect of peace negotiations between the US and Iran, with the copper cash-to-three-month spread falling $27.33 to -$58.84 a ton on the London Metal Exchange.

Fixed income:

Treasuries fell, lifting yields from their lowest closing levels in more than two weeks, with US government bond yields two to four basis points higher on the day, as oil prices steadied with Middle East supply curtailed by the US war on Iran.
Foreign holdings of US Treasuries climbed by the most in a year in February, hitting a new record high of $9.49 trillion, led by gains in the Canadian and Saudi stockpiles.
The IMF warned that the escalating scale of US debt issuance is undermining the premium Treasuries have commanded from investors, with the increase in US Treasury security supply compressing the safety premium and pushing up borrowing costs globally.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

ASML’s earnings say the quiet part out loud: AI still runs on machines

Wed, 15 Apr 2026 09:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

ASML confirms AI demand stays strong, but near-term expectations are already very high.
Meta and Broadcom show AI spending is widening from chips into full infrastructure.
The next risk is not weak demand alone, but bottlenecks, export controls and returns on all that spending.

On 15 April 2026, investors got two useful reminders about the artificial intelligence story. First, ASML raised its 2026 sales outlook after reporting first-quarter net sales of EUR 8.8 billion and net income of EUR 2.8 billion. Second, Meta and Broadcom expanded their custom chip partnership through 2029, with an initial commitment of more than 1 gigawatt of computing capacity. Put simply, the AI race still looks less like software theatre and more like industrial construction. Clever models matter, of course. But someone still has to build the machinery, wire the systems, and keep the lights on.

The company selling the bottleneck

ASML matters because it sells the tools needed to make the most advanced chips. It is the only producer of extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, which are used to print the tiny features inside leading-edge semiconductors. That monopoly is why its results often say more about the health of the AI buildout than yet another promise about a smarter chatbot. This quarter, ASML not only posted solid numbers, it also lifted its full-year 2026 sales forecast to EUR 36 billion to EUR 40 billion, from EUR 34 billion to EUR 39 billion before. Management said chip demand is outpacing supply and that customers are accelerating capacity plans for 2026 and beyond.

Source: Bloomberg consensus, Saxo Bank analysis. Chart generated using ASKB by BloombergAI.

The interesting part is the market’s restraint. ASML’s outlook improved, but the share price reaction looked muted because the second-quarter guide of EUR 8.4 billion to EUR 9.0 billion sat below the average Bloomberg analyst expectation, and because the shares had already risen about 40% this year before the release. That is a useful lesson for investors. A strong business does not always produce a dramatic stock move, especially when the market arrives at the party early and has already eaten half the snacks. In other words, the question is no longer whether AI spending is real. It is how much of that good news is already priced in.

From one chip to a whole estate

The Meta-Broadcom news helps explain the next stage. Broadcom announced a multi-year, multi-generation partnership with Meta to support its custom Meta Training and Inference Accelerator, or MTIA, chips through 2029. The first phase exceeds 1 gigawatt and includes the rollout of what the companies call the industry’s first 2 nanometre AI compute accelerator, plus Broadcom’s Ethernet networking technology to connect Meta’s growing AI clusters.

Why does this matter beyond Broadcom? Because Meta is not building AI with one supplier or one type of chip. It is assembling a full estate of infrastructure: custom silicon, external cloud capacity, networking, and multiple hardware partners. Reuters has reported Meta’s expanded cloud and infrastructure arrangements with CoreWeave, Oracle, Google and AMD, alongside its own chip roadmap. That tells investors something important. The AI trade is broadening. The value pool is no longer just about who sells the headline processor. It is increasingly about who enables throughput, lowers cost, improves networking, and gets systems working together at scale. That is a much wider field.

The buildout is real, but so is the trade risk

This is where ASML and the wider AI infrastructure trade meet. ASML says customers are raising short and medium-term demand, and the company expects to ship 60 low numerical aperture extreme ultraviolet machines in 2026, with capacity for 80 in 2027. That supports the idea that the buildout is still running hard. But it also shows where the next tension sits: not demand, but delivery. If the best tools, packaging, memory, power and networking all need to arrive at once, the chain only moves as fast as its slowest piece.

Then there is trade. ASML says its 2026 guidance already allows for different export control outcomes, yet China remains a live variable. China made up about a third of ASML’s sales in 2025 and is expected to fall towards 20% in 2026 under existing restrictions, while new United States proposals could tighten things further. That matters because strong demand can sometimes be flattered by customers pulling orders forward before rules change. Investors need to separate genuine long-cycle demand from a temporary rush to buy before the door narrows.

The risks are not mysterious. The first is valuation risk. Great companies can still disappoint if expectations run too far ahead of delivery. The second is policy risk, especially for companies exposed to China or cross-border semiconductor equipment flows. The third is return risk. AI infrastructure spending can stay strong and still leave some investors unhappy if the industry builds capacity faster than end demand can absorb it. The market is now asking a harder question than last year: not who is spending, but who earns a durable return on that spending.

Investor playbook

Watch bottlenecks, not just headlines. Tools, packaging, memory, networking and power now matter as much as the chip itself.
Separate demand from pull-forward. Export controls can make one quarter look stronger than the true trend.
Follow workload economics. Custom chips matter most when they lower cost for repeated tasks like inference.
Focus on the chain, not one hero. This phase looks broader and less winner-takes-all than the first AI rush.

Behind the curtain of the AI boom

The neat story in AI used to live on the screen. A model answered a question, wrote a paragraph, or made a picture, and investors could pretend the magic happened there. ASML’s earnings and Meta’s Broadcom deal say otherwise. The real action sits behind the curtain, in lithography tools, networking fabrics, custom accelerators, data centres and export licences.

That is why these updates matter. They show the AI trade is still alive, still expensive, and increasingly industrial. For long-term investors, the lesson is simple. Do not just ask who has the smartest model. Ask who owns the bottleneck, who earns on the buildout, and who still looks sensible once the excitement leaves the room.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles Artificial Intelligence Theme - Artificial intelligence Quarterly earnings ASML Holding Asml

Palantir, Anthropic and the factory behind the AI boom

Tue, 14 Apr 2026 08:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Anthropic’s latest deals show AI value shifting from flashy models toward trusted deployment and scarce compute capacity.
Palantir stands out because large institutions value secure workflows and trusted access as much as raw model performance.
ASML and TSMC earnings are the real test of whether AI demand is turning into sustained industrial spending.

Artificial intelligence still looks like a software story from the outside. You see a chatbot, a coding tool, or a clever demo and assume the magic lives in the screen. This week’s Anthropic news suggests the opposite. The real battle is moving underneath the interface, into enterprise data, operational workflows, and the chip infrastructure required to keep these models useful at scale.

The model is not the product anymore

Anthropic helped re-open one of Wall Street’s sorest questions on 9 April 2026, when its new Claude Mythos model was powerful enough to unsettle software investors and was being previewed only to a small group of major partners for defensive cybersecurity work. That same week, Anthropic expanded compute partnerships with Google and Broadcom, struck a new cloud-capacity deal with CoreWeave, and it is exploring whether to design its own chips. That is not the behaviour of a company worried about demand. It is the behaviour of a company worried about supply.

That matters for investors because it changes the question. The old question was which model wins. The new one is who controls the route from raw intelligence to useful work. In other words, who has the data, who has the workflow, who has the trust layer, and who can still get enough compute when everyone else is queuing outside the data centre.

The trust layer gets political

If Anthropic represents the raw power of the new model cycle, Palantir shows what happens when that power collides with the real world. Palantir builds software that helps governments and companies turn data into decisions and actions. That may sound less glamorous than the latest chatbot demo, but it is often where artificial intelligence becomes useful, accountable and expensive enough to matter. In March, the Pentagon planned to adopt Palantir’s Maven Smart System as a formal programme of record, a sign that Palantir is moving deeper into the operating layer of defence artificial intelligence rather than sitting at the edge as a tools vendor.

The wrinkle is Anthropic. Anthropic’s Claude model was used inside parts of Maven, just as Anthropic fell into a bitter dispute with the Pentagon over defence guardrails and was labelled a supply-chain risk. Anthropic is still talking to the Trump administration about its latest Mythos model despite those tensions. That makes the Palantir-Anthropic story useful for investors because it captures the next phase of artificial intelligence in one neat, slightly awkward package. The models are getting stronger, but access to them can still be restricted by politics, procurement rules and national-security concerns.

That leaves Palantir in an interesting position. Its value is not that it owns the best frontier model. Its value is that it sits closer to the mission, the workflow and the customer relationship. In simple terms, models may come and go, but the company that helps an institution run them safely inside a real operation can still keep its seat at the table. That is why this part of the AI story matters. The market often talks as if intelligence alone wins. Defence and enterprise buyers are quietly voting for something more boring and more durable: trusted deployment.

The real receipts arrive this week

If Anthropic is the demand signal, ASML and TSMC are the industrial receipts. ASML makes the lithography tools used to print advanced chips. TSMC manufactures many of the world’s most advanced processors. If they sound calm and confident this week, investors can reasonably conclude that artificial intelligence spending is still moving from slide deck to factory floor. If they sound cautious, the market will hear it immediately.

ASML reports on 15 April 2026. In January, the company reported record quarterly bookings of EUR 13.2 billion and a raised 2026 sales outlook of EUR 34 billion to EUR 39 billion, driven by artificial intelligence demand. Since then, investors have had a fresh reason to worry after new restrictions on exports to China could hit sales of deep ultraviolet lithography tools. So this quarter is not just about demand. It is about whether demand is strong enough to outrun politics.

TSMC reports on 16 April 2026. The company’s own guidance for the first quarter points to revenue of USD 34.6 billion to USD 35.8 billion and gross margin of 63% to 65%. Bloomberg analysts expect a fourth straight quarter of record profit, driven by demand for 3-nanometre chips and advanced packaging that still exceeds capacity. That is the key point. If Anthropic and its peers need more compute, TSMC is where that ambition becomes a physical bottleneck.

The cracks to watch

The risks are not mysterious. First, enterprise adoption can still disappoint. It is one thing to sign a partnership. It is another to turn that into large, sticky spending.

Second, policy risk is no sideshow. The Anthropic Pentagon dispute shows that model access can become political overnight, and ASML’s China exposure remains vulnerable to export controls. A strong product cycle is helpful. A minister with a pen is still unhelpfully powerful.

Third, valuations leave little room for a dull quarter. When expectations are high, even “good” can trade like “not good enough”.

Investor playbook

Watch the stack, not just the model. Data, workflow and chip capacity usually outlast the latest demo.
Treat ASML and TSMC as demand detectors for the whole artificial intelligence chain.
Look for proof of adoption, not partnership headlines alone.
Expect sharp sentiment swings. AI enthusiasm still has the emotional stability of a shopping trolley on a hill.

Where the durable value really sits

The common thread is simple. Anthropic’s latest deals are not just another burst of artificial intelligence excitement. They show that the industry is becoming more physical, more operational and more dependent on scarce capacity. Palantir matters because they help turn models into useful work inside real organisations.

ASML and TSMC matter because they tell us whether that work is backed by real industrial spending. So the next time the market gets distracted by the latest clever chatbot, it is worth remembering where the durable value often sits. Not in the demo, but in the data pipes, the workflow engine and the very expensive machines humming behind the curtain.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles Artificial Intelligence Theme - Artificial intelligence Palantir Technologies

Asia Market Quick Take – 14 April, 2026

Tue, 14 Apr 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 14 April, 2026

Key points:

Macro: US and Iran weighing talks for longer-term ceasefire
Equities: Oracle up 13% after introducing AI features
FX: Euro up a sixth straight session, highest since 27 Feb 2026
Commodities: Copper hits $6 per pound while WTI remains below $100
Fixed income: 30-year Treasury yield fell to 4.90%, ending a two-day rise

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

The US and Iran are weighing further talks on a longer-term ceasefire before the two-week truce ends. Trump said Tehran initiated contact, while President Pezeshkian expressed conditional readiness for dialogue. Earlier 21-hour talks failed, leading to a US oil blockade of Iranian ports. OPEC+ output fell 7.9 million barrels per day in March due to the Strait of Hormuz shutdown.
RBA’s Hauser said rates must bring inflation back to the 2–3% target, but the board lacks high confidence they’re at the right level amid a Middle East oil shock and still-high inflation.
UK like-for-like retail sales rose 3.1% YoY in March 2026, beating the 0.9% forecast and February’s 0.7%, the strongest since April 2025, helped by an early Easter. Food sales jumped 6.8% vs a 2.6% 12‑month average, while non-food rose 0.9%, below its 1.1% average, with clothing and footwear still weak. Middle East–related travel uncertainty hurt travel goods, and the outlook remains uncertain.
Saudi Arabia’s oil supply slid to 7.76 mb/d in March 2026, the lowest since June 2020 and down from 10.11 mb/d in February amid conflict-related disruptions and a six-week Hormuz closure. Regional output from Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE also fell. OPEC cut its Q2 demand outlook by 500,000 b/d but kept its full-year forecast ahead of a May 3 review.
MAS tightened policy and lifted its 2026 inflation forecast to 1.5–2.5% from 1–2%, citing Middle East–driven energy price volatility, and will slightly increase the Singapore dollar NEER appreciation rate while keeping the band’s width and centre unchanged.
Fed Governor Stephen Miran said the Iran war’s energy shock has not shifted long-run inflation expectations and still expects inflation to return to target within a year.

Equities:

US: S&P 500 rose 1% to 6,886.24, erasing all losses since the Iran war began, while the Nasdaq 100 extended gains to a ninth consecutive day, up 1.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.6% to 48,218.25. Technology and financials led sector gains, with Oracle surging nearly 13 percent as the top S&P 500 gainer after introducing AI-powered features. Microsoft contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.6% while KKR gained over 6%. Sandisk also gained 3.3% after Evercore ISI initiates Outperform with $1200 target, just after its Nasdaq 100 inclusion. American Airlines shares jumped 10% in postmarket trading following reports of preliminary deliberations with United Airlines
EU: The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.2 percent to 613.88, with Deutsche Telekom contributing the most to the decline, decreasing 6.1 percent after JPMorgan cut its price target. The DAX fell 0.3 percent to 23,742.44 in Frankfurt, while the FTSE 100 dropped 0.2 percent to 10,582.96 in London. The Euro Stoxx 50 ended 0.36 percent lower at 5,905.02. Hungarian stocks rallied sharply, with the Hungarian BUX index finishing up 4.95 percent at 139,459.59 following a landslide victory by the Tisza Party in elections. Energy shares were among top performers, with Shell up more than 1 percent.
Asia: Asian equity markets opened higher on Tuesday, tracking Wall Street gains and optimism over potential US-Iran deal progress. Japan's Topix rose 1% to 3,760.39 at the open, while Nikkei futures were up 2.0% at 57,665 on the SGX after the Nikkei fell 0.7% to 56,502.77 on Monday. South Korea's Kospi opened up 151.38 points at 5,960.00 after declining 0.9% to 5,808.62 on Monday, with Samsung Electronics falling 2.4%. The broader MSCI Asia-Pacific index jumped 0.8% at the open. Hong Kong markets showed strength, while Singapore's STI benefited from the central bank's policy tightening. Australian shares were poised to rise following overnight US gains.

Earnings this week:

Tuesday: JPMorgan Chase, Johnson & Johnson
Wednesday: Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, CATL
Thursday: Taiwan Semiconductor, Netflix, Moutai

FX:

The euro gained 0.30 percent to $1.1761, extending gains for a sixth straight session to reach its highest level since February 27, 2026.
The dollar reversed gains to end lower on the day after President Trump said Iran reached out to his administration over peace negotiations.
The Japanese yen was the worst performing G10 currency against the dollar, with USDJPY gaining 0.10 percent to 159.45, rising for a third straight session and remaining pinned just below 160.
The yuan reference rate was fixed at 6.8657 per USD, little changed from the previous trading day, with onshore yuan at 6.8333 as of 16:30 Hong Kong time.
Franklin Templeton's Miles Sampson sees the euro weakening as traders are overestimating the number of ECB interest-rate increases, with the market pricing in about two hikes by the ECB through July.
GBPUSD rose 0.3% to 1.3507, back to late-Feb pre-Iran conflict levels;
The Norwegian krone led G-10 on oil gains
USDCAD fell a fifth time in six days to 1.3791, below its 200-DMA at 1.3818;
AUD firmed as RBA’s Hauser warned on inflation

Commodities:

Brent crude rose 4.37 percent to settle at $99.36 per barrel, while WTI for May gained 2.6 percent to settle at $99.08, as the US blockade of Iranian ports threatened to tighten global markets further.
Copper futures rose, with Comex copper settling 1.80 percent higher at $5.9760 per pound, reaching its highest settlement value since February 27, 2026, while LME 3-month copper closed $208 higher at $13,054 a ton.
Gold fell 0.9 percent to around $4,745 a troy ounce as strength in the US dollar put pressure on the precious metal, while silver dropped 1.05 percent to $75.523 per troy ounce.

Fixed income:

Treasury yields declined as the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz raised more concerns about economic growth than inflation, with the 10-year yield falling 2.1 basis points to 4.299 percent.
The 30-year Treasury yield declined 1.2 basis points to 4.900 percent, snapping a two-trading-day streak of rising yields.
Goldman Sachs raised $6.5 billion from a US investment-grade bond sale, extending a borrowing spree that included a record debt offering earlier this year.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

Asia Market Quick Take – 09 April, 2026

Thu, 09 Apr 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 9 April, 2026

Key points:

Macro: Israel strikes Lebanon, threatening the ceasefire
Equities: Ceasefire sparks broad US equity rally; airlines soar, energy shares slump
FX: Risk-on mood drives SEK, AUD, NZD sharply higher as dollar weakens
Commodities: WTI crude plunged 16.4%, its biggest one-day drop since April 2020
Fixed income: European bonds surged; German 10y at 2.90%, 3-week low

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but the passage remains mostly blocked and tanker traffic suspended after renewed Israeli strikes on Lebanon. Iran says three terms of the truce have already been violated and disputes whether it covers Lebanon. US Vice President JD Vance, heading to Islamabad for talks with Iran, says there are signs the strait may begin to reopen.
Fed March minutes showed inflation worries from the Iran war, but markets still priced in possible rate cuts later this year.
The average 30-year fixed US mortgage rate for conforming loans dipped to 6.51% in the week ending April 3, 2026, from 6.57%, its first decline in over a month as Treasury yields fell on Middle East war worries. Overall applications still slipped 0.8%, with refis down 2.8% and purchase loans up 1.1%.
RBNZ held its cash rate at 2.25%, flagged higher near-term inflation risks from Middle East tensions, and signaled possible hikes.

Equities:

US: US equity markets surged in a broad relief rally following the ceasefire announcement. The S&P 500 soared 2.5% to 6,773.1, breaking above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.7% to 22,603.4, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average catapulted 2.7% to 47,824.2, gaining 1,325 points. More than 400 stocks in the S&P 500 traded higher. Energy stocks fell sharply, with Exxon down 6.4% and Occidental declining 6.6%. Airlines rallied strongly, with United up 9.6%, American up 7.4%, and Delta up 5.4%. Avis Budget Group surged more than 150% over three weeks amid a short squeeze.Levi Strauss gained 10.6% after they reported stronger than expected quarterly results and raised full year projections.
EU: European equity markets staged their biggest rally since March 2022, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index surging 3.9%. Germany's DAX led gains, climbing 5.1% to 24,080.63, its largest advance since March 2022. France's CAC 40 rose 5% to 8,304.55, while the UK's FTSE 100 jumped 2.5% to 10,608.88. Travel and tourism stocks led the advance, with EasyJet and TUI both jumping more than 10%. Energy stocks declined as oil prices collapsed, with Norway's OSEBX falling 3.5% as Equinor dropped as much as 13%. Industrials and materials sectors posted strong gains across the region.
Asia: Asian equity markets rallied sharply on the ceasefire news, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gaining 4.9% to a one-month high. Japan's Nikkei 225 surged 5.4% to 56,308.42, its largest gain in almost a year, led by AI-linked stocks including Furukawa Electric and Kioxia Holdings, which rose 18.6%. South Korea's Kospi jumped 6.9% to 5,872.34, with Samsung Electronics up 7.1% and SK Hynix soaring 13%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index climbed 3.1% to 25,893.02, with HSBC rising 6.6%, Meituan gaining 10.3% and Alibaba up 6.75%. China's CSI 300 Index gained as much as 3.4%, the most since October 2024. India's Nifty 50 rose 3.8% to 23,997.35, its steepest single-day advance since May 2025. Singapore's Straits Times Index rose 0.8%with SATS gaining 4.5%.

FX:

USD weakened to a four‑week low after the US and Iran agreed to a two‑week ceasefire, which sent oil sharply lower and lifted global equities. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as much as 1.1% intraday before closing down 0.8%.
High‑beta currencies rallied, led by SEK, with USDSEK dropping 1.6% to 9.3208.
EURUSD climbed over 1% to a high of 1.1722 and GBPUSD rose as much as 1.45% to 1.3484, with both pairs advancing for a third straight session; sterling still carries the most persistent “tail” premium linked to prior energy‑inflation shocks.
USDJPY fell 0.65% to 158.58 after Japan’s inflation‑adjusted wages posted their fastest rise since 2021, bolstering expectations the BOJ could hike as soon as this month.
AUDUSD briefly gained up to 1.6% to 0.7085 before easing, while NZDUSD jumped as much as 2.3% to 0.5859 after the RBNZ held rates at 2.25%.
The Chinese yuan climbed to a three-year high, with USDCNH falling 0.32% to 6.8334 and USDCNY dropping 0.4% to 6.8360, both at their strongest since March 2023.

Commodities:

WTI crude oil plunged 16.4% to settle at $94.41 per barrel, its largest one-day decline since April 2020, though prices rebounded overnight to around $97 as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely blocked and Israeli attacks on Lebanon threatened the fragile ceasefire.
Gold pared gains, up 0.4% after earlier rising as much as 3.2% above $4,800/oz, after Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad‑Bagher Ghalibaf said three clauses of the temporary US‑Iran ceasefire had been violated.
Copper advanced 3.2% to settle at $12,709 per ton on the London Metal Exchange, hitting a three-week high on improved risk sentiment, while silver surged 4.73% to $75.224 per troy ounce.

Fixed income:

US Treasury yields initially fell sharply before paring declines, with the 10-year yield dropping as much as 6.5 basis points to 4.240% before closing down just 0.6 basis points at 4.291%.
European government bonds surged, with German 10-year yields falling as much as 18 basis points to 2.90%, a three-week low, while Italian yields slumped 31 basis points to 3.66%.
The Treasury's $39 billion 10-year note auction attracted average demand with a high yield of 4.282%, slightly above the when-issued level, while the bid-to-cover ratio came in at 2.43.

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Asia Market Quick Take – 06 April, 2026

Mon, 06 Apr 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 6 April, 2026

Key points:

Macro: Trump threatens to strike Iran if Straits not opened by Tuesday
Equities: Stocks ended slightly higher in a short session on Friday.
FX: USDJPY hovers just below 160 as strong US data offsets haven demand
Commodities: Oil surges on severe Middle East supply risks; gold falls amid rate fears
Fixed income: Yields rose after Trump threatens to hit Iran

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

Trump threatened to target Iran’s power plants and bridges if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by Tuesday, further intensifying tensions in a Middle East conflict now in its second month.
OPEC+ authorized a modest increase in production quotas for next month but warned that damage to Middle East energy infrastructure will continue to constrain oil supply well beyond the end of the war.
US nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March—almost triple economists’ expectations of 60,000 and unemployment rate fell to 4.3%—prompting traders to wipe out remaining bets on Fed rate cuts this year.

Equities:

US: US equity index futures fell 0.2% to 0.4% in Sunday evening trading after President Trump signaled sharp escalation in the Iran war, heightening risks of an energy shock already weighing on the global economic outlook. Brent crude rose 2% to trade above $111 per barrel as trading started. On Friday, the S&P 500 gained 0.1% in a shortened Good Friday session, led by real estate and information technology sectors. Last week's notable losers included Nike, which decreased 14.29% after reporting Q3 results and issuing fourth-quarter sales guidance below estimates. VinFast Auto jumped 42.77% to lead gainers for the week.
EU: European stocks posted their best week in almost a year, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index up 3.7% for the week ending April 2, the most since April 18, 2025. The index closed 0.2% lower on Thursday after erasing earlier declines of as much as 1.6% following a report that Iran is drafting a protocol with Oman to monitor traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The FTSE 100 rose 4.70% for the week to 10,436.29, marking the largest one-week point gain since November 2008 and the largest percentage gain since January 2021. The CAC 40 Index gained 3.38% for the week to 7,962.39. Energy stocks including Shell and Total were among the strongest performers as oil prices soared. Airlines slumped as Morgan Stanley cut price targets across the sector and downgraded Lufthansa due to risks from higher fuel costs. Rolls-Royce Holdings gained as much as 10% after Wells Fargo initiated coverage with an overweight rating.
Asia: South Korea's Kospi advanced as much as 2.2% in early Monday trading, extending Friday's gain, as shares of chipmakers climbed with Samsung Electronics rising as much as 4% and SK Hynix up 2.4%. The small-cap Kosdaq Index gained 1.2%. For the week ending April 3, the Kospi fell 1.1% despite closing Friday nearly 3% higher at 5,377.3. Japan's Nikkei climbed more than 3% in early Wednesday trading after President Trump indicated the war with Iran may be over in around two weeks. Mainland investors extended their buying spree of Hong Kong stocks in March, purchasing HK$61.4 billion through the cross-border exchange link program, marking a third consecutive month of net inflows. Poongsan jumped 23% after a report that Hanwha may buy its ammunition unit. Daikyonishikawa shares rose 4.2% after Takateru Murakami disclosed a stake.

Earnings this week:

Monday: Samsung Electronics
Wednesday: Delta

FX:

In early Asian trade Monday, FX markets are cautious amid escalating US–Iran tensions.Dollar strengthened with DXY rose 0.2% to 100.26.USDJPY is steady near the key 160 level at 159.65, with Nomura expecting USDJPY to stay elevated and having raised its year-end forecast.
The dollar is softer against AUD and NZD, with AUDUSD up 0.22% to 0.6911 and NZDUSD up 0.21% to 0.5702.
EURUSD dips toward 1.15 as strong US jobs, Middle East tensions boost USD, while ECB signals policy to stay restrictive until inflation hits 2%.

Commodities:

Oil prices are surging Monday morning as Middle East tensions escalate and traders price in heightened supply risks. WTI crude is up around 2% to roughly $113.7 per barrel, while Brent crude is also gaining about 2% to the $110. The move is driven by fears over disrupted Gulf exports and President Trump’s threats to destroy Iran’s power infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, with Goldman Sachs calling it “the worst oil crisis in history.”
Gold is under pressure despite the geopolitical backdrop. Spot gold is down 1.3% to about $4,617 per ounce, weighed by dollar strength and concerns that surging oil prices could fuel inflation and prompt interest-rate hikes, reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.

Fixed income:

US Treasury yields rose 3 to 4 basis points across maturities on Friday after better-than-expected March employment data, with the 10-year yield climbing to 4.351% and traders erasing remaining wagers on Fed easing this year.
Treasury 10-year note futures dipped 2/32 to 110 22/32 in early Monday trading after President Trump's threat to destroy Iran's power plants pushed up oil prices and fanned concern over quicker inflation.

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Asia Market Quick Take – 02 April, 2026

Thu, 02 Apr 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 2 April, 2026

Key points:

Macro: Trump signals end of conflict in weeks; Addressing the nation later
Equities: Equities rally further on potential end to war; Intel gains 8.8% on
FX: Dollar eases with oil; USDJPY near 158.8; banks advocate bullish yen
Commodities: Gold up a fourth day; WTI slips below $100
Fixed income: US Treasuries mildly twist‑flattened as early gains faded on firmer data

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

Trump is set to give a prime-time address Wednesday on the Iran war, signaling U.S. operations could end in two to three weeks.While retaining options for limited “spot” attacks. He earlier claimed Iran sought a ceasefire but said any deal requires it to stop blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a charge Iran denied.
The IEA warned the worst energy crisis in modern history is just beginning, with April set to be much worse as the Iran war’s full impact hits markets.
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.7 in March 2026, the strongest since August 2022 and above forecasts, with faster output growth, slightly weaker new orders, continued job contraction, and the highest prices index since June 2022, as firms increasingly cited the Iran war and policy uncertainty as headwinds.
US retail sales rose 0.6% in February 2026, the strongest gain in seven months and above forecasts, with broad increases led by department, health, clothing, and auto stores, partly offset by weaker food and furniture sales. Core retail sales climbed 0.5%.
US private payrolls rose by 62,000 in March 2026, beating expectations and signaling a still‑resilient labor market, with gains led by education and health and losses in trade, transportation, utilities, and manufacturing.
China’s central bank signaled stricter oversight of intermediary fees to cut hidden financing costs and ease borrower burdens, Financial News reported.

Equities:

US - U.S. stocks rallied Wednesday as hopes grew that the war in the Middle East may be nearing a conclusion. The S&P 500 rose 0.7% to 6,575.32, the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%. Globalstar shares surged more than 20% in late trading on a Financial Times report that Amazon is in talks to acquire the satellite provider.Intel shares rallied 8.8% after the company agreed to pay $14.2b to buy back the 49% stake in its Ireland-based microchip factory it sold to Apollo Global Management in 2024. In after-hours trading, Penguin Solutions shares jumped 13% after raising its full-year adjusted earnings per share forecast, while Microchip Technology fell 7.8% to $60.30.
EU - European stocks rallied Wednesday as comments from both sides of the Middle East war gave conviction for a near-term end to hostilities. The FTSE 100 closed up 1.9% at 10,364.79, the DAX rose 2.7% to 23,298.89, and the Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 2.5% to 597.69. HSBC Holdings contributed the most to the FTSE 100 gain, increasing 5.3%, while Babcock International Group had the largest increase, rising 9.5%. In Germany, Rheinmetall had the largest increase, rising 9.5%.ASML Holding contributed the most to the Stoxx 600 gain, increasing 6.1%.
Asia - Asian markets opened higher Thursday on continued optimism about a potential end to the Iran war. South Korea's Kospi Index opened 1.3% higher at 5,551.69, building on Wednesday's massive 8.4% rally that was driven by Samsung Electronics' 13% gain, its biggest since December 2001, and SK Hynix's nearly 11% rise. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average opened 0.6% higher at 54,066.83, with the Topix Index rising 1.1%. Chugai shares were untraded and set to rise after Foundayo U.S. approval. MCJ Co. fell 5.1% to 2,201 yen, the worst performer among its peers. The MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index gained 0.5%.

Earnings this week:

Thursday: Acuity, Lindsay and AngioDynamics

FX:

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.8% over two days as President Trump prepared to stress that the conclusion of operations in Iran may come in two to three weeks.
All G-10 currencies advanced against the USDWednesday, led by theCHF, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falling more than 0.3%.
GBPUSD climbed 0.6% to 1.3305, up 0.9% in two days, while USDJPY fell 0.1% to 158.52, down three days in a row.
CNH extended gains both onshore and offshore, lifted by a weaker dollar as hopes grew that the war in the Middle East may be nearing a conclusion. USDCNH fell 0.17% to 6.8774, down four days in a row.

Commodities:

Oil pushed lower as traders focused on signs President Trump is seeking to end the Iran war. WTI fell as much as 1.8% to $98.37 a barrel after shedding 1.2% on Wednesday. Brent crude briefly fell below $100 a barrel and settled at $101.16.
Gold rose for its fourth straight session, climbing as much as 2.7% Wednesday to approach $4,800 an ounce before trimming gains, as traders bet the Federal Reserve may need to cut interest rates to shore up a possible economic downturn.

Fixed income:

Treasuries saw a mild twist‑flattening as early gains faded on firmer data and a large 2‑year futures block; yields finished within a few bp of Tuesday, pivoting around an unchanged 10‑year and paring declines as Brent briefly dipped below $100, with the market tracking oil’s inflation risk despite de‑escalation hopes for Fed cuts.

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Asia Market Quick Take – 1 April, 2026

Wed, 01 Apr 2026 01:39:00 Z

Key points:

Macro: US plans to leave Iran in 2-3 weeks
Equities: Nasdaq 100 gains 3.8%, S&P 500 rallies 2.9% on Iran comments to end war
FX: Dollar drops as Iran de-escalation; USDJPY below 159
Commodities: Gold extended a three‑day advance pushing above $4,700.
Fixed income: US Treasuries rally, paring their biggest monthly loss in over a year

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

President Trump said the US could leave Iran within two to three weeks and indicated a deal with Tehran may be close, raising hopes the war that has jolted global markets may be nearing a conclusion.
Iran's official news agency said the country's president was willing to end the conflict but wants guarantees against further attacks. Trump also urged Straits users to secure it themselves.
US job openings fell by 358,000 to 6.88 million in February 2026, below expectations, with declines across all regions and in accommodation, food services, and mining. Hires slipped to 4.8 million, while separations held at 5.0 million, with quits at 3.0 million and layoffs and discharges at 1.7 million.
US job quits fell to 2.97 million in February 2026, the lowest since August 2020, down from 3.13 million in January and 3.15 million a year earlier. The quits rate eased to 1.9%, with declines across all regions and most major sectors.
Japan’s large manufacturers grew more confident for a fourth straight quarter, with the Tankan index rising to 17 from 16, beating forecasts and supporting the BOJ’s ongoing rate-hike stance.
South Korea's exports continued to surge in March with shipments adjusted for working-day differences soaring 41.9% from a year earlier, driven by robust semiconductor demand.

Equities:

US: US equity indexes surged on Tuesday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumping more than 1,125 points, the S&P 500 up 2.9% to 6,528.52, and the Nasdaq Composite catapulting almost 800 points or 3.8% to 21,590.63 amid optimism that the Iran war is about to end. Communication services, technology, and consumer discretionary led the gains. S&P 500 futures were up 0.3% as of 8:04pm Tuesday in New York, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.5%. Nike shares sank 9% after hours after the company forecast more falling sales and conceded its turnaround efforts were taking longer than expected.
EU: European stock index futures climbed sharply with contracts on the Euro Stoxx 50 up about 1.9% as of 1:18am in London on hopes for an end to the Iran war. The FTSE 100 rose for the second day on Tuesday, climbing 0.5% or 48.49 points to 10,176.45 in London, reaching the highest closing level since March 18, with Rolls-Royce contributing the most to the index gain.
Asia: Asian stocks jumped at the open, tracking a Wall Street rally, with equities in Japan, South Korea and Australia rising and sending the broader MSCI Asia Pacific Index up 1.6%. Japan's Nikkei climbed more than 3% to 52,792.66 while the Topix rose 3.1% to 3,607.25. South Korea's Kospi surged nearly 5% at the open to 5,330.04, snapping a four-day loss, with the Korea Exchange briefly halting program trading after Kospi 200 futures jumped more than 5%, triggering a sidecar. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix jumped as much as 7.1% and 9.5% respectively. Recruit Holdings shares rose 7.6% after announcing a buyback plan. KDDI shares fell 3.3% after cutting fiscal year earnings forecasts.

Earnings this week:

Wednesday: SAIC Motor

FX:

USD softened on Tuesday, trimming its strong monthly gain as reports of possible de‑escalation in the Iran conflict reduced safe‑haven demand The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.6% on the day but still ended March up about 2.4%, its best month since July.
Intervention worries persisted in Japan as USDJPY slipped 0.6% to 158.69 but remained up 1.7% on the month, with TD Securities flagging higher intervention risk only on sustained moves toward 162–164.
USDCAD edged lower as Canadian GDP showed modest early‑year growth, and EURUSD rebounded 0.9% to 1.1563 despite a 2.1% monthly drop amid highly volatile European rates.
AUDUSD climbed 0.7% to 0.6900, extending a five‑quarter winning streak, with the RBA highlighting uncertainty over its policy path.

Commodities:

Oil steadied with Brent trading below $105 a barrel after losing 3.2% on Tuesday, while WTI was near $102, as President Trump signaled the potential end to the Iran war that has roiled markets, even after more troops arrived in the region and Tehran said no peace talks were taking place.
Gold extended a three‑day advance, with bullion above $4,700 an ounce after a 3.5% jump, as President Donald Trump said the US could end the Iran war within two to three weeks and had largely met its military goals, while Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian signalled readiness to end the war if its demands are met.

Fixed income:

Treasuries extended Monday’s belly‑led rally as oil fell on hopes of Iran de‑escalation and stocks rose with traders rebuilding Fed rate‑cut premia for this year and 2027, though 30‑year bonds erased gains. Month‑end rebalance and the market broadly trimmed its biggest monthly loss in over a year. The newest 10-year JGB yield fell 3 basis points to 2.325% after the Tankan survey beat forecasts across the board with a notable jump for the large manufacturing outlook, opening the door for a BOJ hike this month.

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The Explosive Comeback of Uranium: Between Big Tech and the Nuclear Revolution

Mon, 30 Mar 2026 08:00:00 Z

Points clés

The rise of artificial intelligence and the growth of data centers are creating a massive and continuous demand for electricity, which only stable and dense energy sources like nuclear can provide.
Nuclear energy is becoming an essential pillar in meeting global climate goals, offering low-carbon, stable, and mature energy, supported by policies and international commitments.
After years of underinvestment, global production is struggling to keep up, with declining inventories and very long lead times to restart mines, creating a lasting imbalance in the market.

After two decades of disinterest, uranium is back in the spotlight, and this time, the dynamic is on an entirely different scale. Demand is rising sharply, driven in part by the digital economy, while supply is struggling to keep pace after years of underinvestment. With now broad political support, uranium is emerging as one of the most structural themes among commodities today.

Uranium : What it is, What it does

Uranium is a heavy, naturally radioactive metal found in the Earth’s crust at very low concentrations (2 to 4 grams of uranium per ton of rock). It is the sole fuel used in civilian nuclear reactors. Its key property is nuclear fission: when a neutron strikes a uranium nucleus, it splits, releasing a colossal amount of energy (about 2 million times greater than that released by the combustion of a carbon atom).

Nuclear energy : dense, reliable, and low-carbon

Nuclear power generates electricity with exceptional energy density: 7 grams of enriched uranium produce as much energy as one ton of coal. With a capacity factor above 92%, compared to 25–35% for wind and 22% for solar, nuclear power plants stable and continuous output, essential for modern power grids.

In terms of carbon emissions, nuclear ranks among the cleanest energy sources, on par with offshore wind and far ahead of natural gas, according to the IPCC.

From mine to reactor : the value chain

The journey of uranium from the ground to the reactor is long and complex: mining, conversion, enrichment, fuel fabrication. Each stage requires heavy infrastructure and specialized expertise. This rigidity is precisely why supply cannot quickly adjust to price signals.

Source : Saxo Analysis

Three catalysts driving uranium

A commodity supercycle is defined as a multi-year (often decade-long) phase where structural demand persistently exceeds supply capacity, forcing a deep rebalancing. Uranium is now entering this regime due to the combined effect of three major and simultaneous catalysts, a rare convergence in commodity history.

Sources : World Nuclear Association (WNA) - Saxo Analysis

1) AI : an extraordinary energy appetite

Generative AI is driving an unprecedented energy demand. A single ChatGPT query uses 2.9 Wh, nearly 10 times more than a standard Google search. Training and running large language models require GPU clusters operating 24/7.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global data center electricity demand rose from 460 TWh in 2024 and is expected to reach 1,300 TWh by 2035. Intermittent energy sources like solar and wind cannot provide this continuous and predictable power so tech giants are heavily investing in nuclear:

Recent examples:
• Meta and Amazon contracted over 10 GW of clean energy in 2025, with nearly 23% in nuclear
• Microsoft invested $16 billion with Constellation to restart Three Mile Island
• Google is developing 500 MW of SMRs with Kairos Power
• Meta holds 6.6 GW of nuclear capacity, a global record for a technology company

2) The energy transition

To reach carbon neutrality by 2050 and -50% by 2035, renewables alone aren’t enough. Nuclear, stable and mature, is central to decarbonization.

• COP28: 22 nations committed to tripling global nuclear capacity by 2050.
• EU: nuclear included in sustainable finance taxonomy (2022).

• France: 14 new EPR2 reactors; UK: Nuclear Acceleration Office; several countries restarting or accelerating programs.

Source : World Nuclear Association (WNA)

3) A structural supply deficit

The global uranium market has shifted from chronic surplus to structural deficit, which inventories can no longer offset. Reactor demand exceeds mine production by 40–50 million pounds per year, and inventories have fallen by 38% since 2012 (~800 million pounds in 2023).

With demand set to rise sharply and mining limited, the deficit will grow, supporting prices and reinforcing uranium’s strategic importance.

The different players in the value chain

The uranium value chain offers very different entry points depending on the desired risk/return profile.

Integrated miners : direct exposure to price

Integrated miners are companies that directly own and operate uranium mines. Their revenues and profitability depend directly on uranium prices, making them highly sensitive to supply and demand fluctuations.

• Cameco (Canada) is the global leader among integrated miners (24% of Canadian production).
• Kazatomprom (Kazakhstan) is the world’s largest producer (43% of total uranium production).
• NexGen Energy (Canada) owns the Arrow deposit in the Athabasca region, considered one of the richest in the world.

SMRs : betting on the next nuclear revolution

Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) represent a technological disruption that could reshape the industry over the next two decades. These mini-reactors (50 to 500 MW) are factory-built, modular, and deployable within 3 to 5 years, compared to 10 to 15 years for large reactors. Their appeal for Big Tech is clear: proximity to data centers, dedicated and scalable power, and construction timelines aligned with the pace of the digital economy.

• Oklo is developing a small reactor aiming to produce its first electricity by 2027
• NuScale Power offers modular solutions tailored to industrial and corporate needs
• Rolls-Royce SMR is developing a compact reactor backed by the UK government and European investors
• X-energy is working on an innovative reactor with support from the US government

SMRs represent the next nuclear revolution, offering companies and investors access to reliable, rapidly deployable energy compatible with the needs of digital infrastructure and artificial intelligence.

Nuclear utilities : stability and visibility

Utilities are companies that operate nuclear power plants and directly generate electricity. Unlike miners or technology developers, their business is more stable, as they sell electricity over the long term, often through secured contracts.

• Constellation Energy is the leading private nuclear operator in the United States. The company has signed a long-term contract with Microsoft, providing strong revenue visibility.
• Vistra Corp. operates several nuclear plants in the US and has signed an agreement with Meta.
• Duke Energy has a significant nuclear fleet but remains a diversified energy group.
• EDF is the world’s largest nuclear operator, with 56 reactors in France. The company is 100% owned by the French state, making it a central player in the national energy strategy.

How to gain exposure to the theme

⛏️ Integrated miners
Invest directly in companies that own and operate uranium mines or are positioned along the value chain.

🏦 Thematic ETFs
Thematic ETFs provide diversified exposure to the entire uranium ecosystem, including miners, reactor builders, and utilities. This reduces company-specific risk and allows investors to track the sector’s growth.

☢️Physical uranium
Investing in physical uranium through a listed vehicle such as the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust allows pure exposure to the spot price of the metal, without dependence on company performance or mining operational risks. This is ideal for those seeking direct price exposure. The main drawback is the absence of dividends or regular income, with returns entirely dependent on price fluctuations, implying potentially high volatility.

Points of attention & risks

Source : Saxo Analysis

Conclusion

The uranium thesis for 2026 is not a speculative bet. It is the documented convergence of three secular forces: the global energy transition, which firmly reinstates nuclear as a cornerstone of decarbonization; the artificial intelligence revolution, which creates unprecedented firm and massive electricity demand; and a supply market structurally unable to respond before the end of the decade.

What makes this cycle particularly robust is the multiplicity of its drivers. Unlike the 2007 peak, largely driven by speculation and Asian growth, this supercycle is simultaneously supported by institutional commitments (COP28), massive industrial contracts (Big Tech), bipartisan public policies (ADVANCE Act, EU ESG taxonomy), and relentless supply-demand fundamentals.

Dorian Anglada

Investment Analyst

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles

Asia Market Quick Take – 30 March, 2026

Mon, 30 Mar 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 30 March, 2026

Key points:

Macro: Iran backed Houthis joins US-Iran conflict
Equities: S&P down 1.7% on Friday in fifth consecutive week of decline on war
FX: JPY near 160 against USD, intervention fears rise as global risk-off deepens
Commodities: Brent rallies 3% on record-month pace; WTI >$100
Fixed income: Treasuries up; 2s10s yield curve twist steepening to 50bp.

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

As the Iran war entered its fifth week, investor doubts about a quick resolution grew after Iran‑backed Houthis joined the conflict, fired missiles at Israel, and threatened further attacks, while the US reportedly prepared for weeks of ground operations with more troops deployed to the region.
Despite repeated warnings from Tokyo, including Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama’s pledge to take “bold actions” against excessive FX moves, the yen remained under pressure from surging Middle East–driven oil prices that threaten Japan’s recovery, prompting the Finance Ministry to reportedly explorepossible intervention in crude futures.
The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 53.3 in March from 56.6 in February, near late‑2025 lows, amid higher gas prices and market volatility linked to the Iran conflict. Short-term economic and personal finance expectations weakened sharply, while long-term views slipped slightly. Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 3.8% and long-term expectations dipped to 3.2%.

Equities:

US: US stocks fell sharply on Friday with the S&P 500 down 1.7% to 6,368.85, marking its fifth consecutive weekly decline - the longest losing streak since 2022. Both the Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones entered correction territory, trading more than 10% below recent highs, as fears intensified that surging oil prices will cripple the global economy. The VIX index closed above 30 for the first time since April. Dow futures fell 300 points overnight as investors braced for potential US ground assault on Iran. Mega‑cap tech remained under pressure, with Nvidia, Microsoft and Alphabet down over 2% and Meta falling 4%.
EU: European equities ended sharply lower on Friday as rising energy prices reinforced stagflation concerns across the region. The STOXX 50 fell 1.1% to 5,508 and the STOXX 600 dropped 0.9% to 575. While President Trump extended the pause on strikes on Iran’s energy facilities until April 6, higher oil prices are already feeding into inflation. Spain’s March inflation hit its highest level since 2024. Banks slid on rising yields, and industrials extended losses.
Asia: Asian markets opened sharply lower on Monday as the Iran conflict intensified. Japan's Nikkei plunged 5.0% to 50,712 in early trading, while South Korea's Kospi tumbled 4.4% to 5,236, extending Friday's losses. The Hang Seng closed Friday unchanged at 24,952 after weekend developments. China's CSI 300 was flat at 4,503. Singapore's STI finished Friday at 4,898, up 0.2%.SoftBank Group is down 8.3% after $40 bridge loan for Open AI investment.

Earnings this week:

Monday: Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China
Tuesday: Nike, Beyond Meat
Wednesday: SAIC Motor

FX:

Currency markets are mixed in early Asia amid risk-off sentiment and geopolitical tensions, with USDJPY around 160 as the yen hovers near intervention levels following strong warnings from Japan’s top FX official about potential “bold” action. USD remains firm, hitting a 20‑month high against the yen, while EURUSD 1.1506 and GBPUSD 1.3251 edge lower on Middle East concerns.
Asian FX shows a varied picture with a slightly weaker yuan at USDCNY 6.9112, and a firmer Singapore dollar at USDSGD 1.2891, and commodity-linked currencies are under pressure, led by the Australian dollar at AUDUSD 0.6850, down 0.35 percent and the weakest performer among majors.

Commodities:

Oil rose as Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen joined the Middle East conflict and more US troops were deployed, heightening fears for energy markets. Brent—on course for a record monthly gain—surged more than 3% at the open to $116.43 after the Houthis fired missiles at Israel and vowed to continue operations until attacks on Iran and its proxies cease, while WTI climbed above $100.
Gold logged its first weekly gain since the Middle East war began as bargain hunters stepped in, with bullion near $4,490 an ounce in early trading after a 2.7% rise, as opportunistic buying followed the steepest sell-off in years even amid worries that a prolonged conflict could prompt central banks to sell holdings or raise interest rates to curb inflation.

Fixed income:

Treasuries ended Friday mixed with a twist steepener around a near‑unchanged 7‑year sector as the front end outperformed—2‑year yields topped 4% in the morning amid a dovish tone in SOFR futures/options and a large 2‑year note futures block—most yields retreating from year‑to‑date highs and the 2s10s spread breaching 50bp for its biggest widening since 1 August.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

Google just changed the AI chip story

Fri, 27 Mar 2026 10:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Google’s TurboQuant shakes storage-heavy chip names more than the premium memory layer closest to AI compute.
The chip trade is shifting from “more hardware at any cost” to “useful efficiency at scale”.
For long-term investors, the key question is not more chips or fewer chips, but which chips stay indispensable.

When Google shows a way to make artificial intelligence cheaper to run, the semiconductor market tends to hit sell first and ask questions later. That is what happened this week. Google unveiled TurboQuant, a technique it says can sharply reduce key-value cache memory needs while speeding up some workloads on Nvidia H100 chips.

The news triggered a broad sell-off across parts of the semiconductor space, especially among memory names that had ridden the idea that every extra AI query would need ever more storage. But the bigger point for investors is not that the AI chip boom is over. It is that the market is starting to reward efficiency, not just scale, in the next phase of the build-out.
The memory aisle now has labels

The semiconductor market often talks about “memory” as if it were one big drawer. It is not. High-bandwidth memory, or HBM, sits very close to the graphics processing unit and helps feed AI accelerators quickly. Dynamic random-access memory, or DRAM, handles fast working memory more broadly. NAND flash is the cheaper, denser storage layer used in solid-state drives and other capacity-heavy jobs.

TurboQuant appears to target one specific pain point in inference, which is the stage where a trained model answers real user prompts. In simple terms, it helps compress part of the memory burden involved in handling long conversations and large context windows. That is why the selloff has hit storage and flash-linked names harder than the premium memory suppliers closest to the graphics processing unit.

That distinction matters. Investors had started to price many memory names as if all roads led upward together. Flash memory winners had surged far ahead of traditional DRAM leaders before this week’s reversal, and the new Google news has exposed just how different those businesses really are.

Why less memory can still mean more chips

This is where the story gets more interesting than a simple selloff. In semiconductors, an efficiency gain often shifts the bottleneck rather than removing it. If running AI becomes cheaper, more companies can afford to deploy it. If more companies deploy it, total demand for compute, networking, advanced packaging and premium memory can still rise.

That is not just theory. Micron said last week that booming demand from AI systems is driving record results and pushed its fiscal 2026 capital spending plan above USD 25 billion. In its own prepared remarks, Micron also said rapid growth in AI inference is creating new architectures and that demand for data-centre NAND remains well above available supply. Meanwhile, Samsung is trying to move major customers onto three-to-five-year contracts, and SK Hynix has agreed to buy USD 7.97 billion of ASML extreme ultraviolet lithography tools through 2027.

In other words, the big industry players are not behaving like demand is about to disappear. They are behaving like the winners may change, the architecture may evolve, and the cost curve may improve, but the need for serious semiconductor capacity is still very real.

There is also a small irony here. A breakthrough designed to reduce memory intensity may end up helping the AI market expand faster. That is because lower costs usually widen adoption. Cheaper inference can make AI more useful in search, software, customer service, coding tools and on-device features. When that happens, one slice of the bill shrinks, but the number of bills often multiplies.

The winners are getting choosier

The latest semiconductor news flow suggests the market is moving from a broad AI story to a more selective one. Names tied to the most irreplaceable parts of the stack still look better placed than names that benefited mainly from scarcity and momentum. That is why HBM suppliers, advanced equipment makers and certain logic or accelerator names may hold up better than businesses exposed to more interchangeable storage demand.

This does not make the sector easy. Memory has a long history of making investors feel clever at the top and philosophical at the bottom. But the current cycle is different in one important respect. The winners are not just the companies making more chips. They are the ones sitting at the hardest bottlenecks, signing longer contracts, and spending with enough confidence to prepare for years of demand rather than one lucky quarter.

Where the trapdoors still are

The first risk is that Google’s approach spreads faster and wider than the market expects. If TurboQuant or similar methods start cutting into more layers of memory demand, the pressure on flash pricing could last longer than a two-day wobble.

The second risk is the old one dressed in AI clothing: overinvestment. Micron is spending more. SK Hynix is ordering tools aggressively. Samsung is talking like a company that sees a supercycle. That is good while demand stays tight. It is less charming if customers pause, models become more efficient faster than expected, or enterprise adoption takes longer than hoped.

The third risk is geopolitics. Export controls, tariffs, power constraints and supply chain frictions still hang over the whole semiconductor industry like a fluorescent office light. Always on, never flattering.

Investor playbook

Separate scarce memory from swappable storage. Not every “AI memory” story has the same economics.
Watch contracts and capital spending. They often tell the truth before share prices do.
Follow inference as closely as training. The next winners may serve daily usage, not headline model launches.
Treat semiconductor volatility as part of the package, not as a surprise gift.

The smaller memory, bigger picture

Google’s announcement looks, at first glance, like bad news for chips. It is not that simple. It is better understood as a sorting event. TurboQuant does not kill the semiconductor story. It forces investors to ask which part of that story still earns the fattest margin when AI gets cheaper, faster and more widely used.

Some memory layers may lose a little glamour. Others may become even more essential. That is usually how this industry works. One bottleneck eases, another becomes valuable, and the market has to relearn the map. In semiconductors, using less of one thing often ends up needing more of something else.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles Theme - Artificial intelligence Alphabet Alphabet Inc.

If inflation lingers, investors need better equities, not panic

Thu, 26 Mar 2026 11:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Sticky inflation hurts weak business models more than equities as an asset class.
Pricing power matters most when costs rise and rate cuts start to vanish.
Energy, select property, defensives, healthcare and some industrials can hold up better.

Bloomberg reported on 25 March 2026 that Trump administration officials are examining what oil at as much as 200 USD a barrel could mean for the economy. That sounds extreme, but markets are already treating it as more than a distant thought experiment. The message for investors is not that higher inflation means “sell equities.” It is that higher inflation raises the bar for what counts as a good equity.

Cash and fixed income are often the most exposed when inflation stays high, because their nominal payments do not rise with the cost of living. Over longer periods, equities have historically done a better job of preserving real returns across different inflation environments. Hartford Funds adds an important warning, though: equities beat inflation 90% of the time when inflation is low and rising, but when inflation is high and rising, the short-term record looks little better than a coin toss. Equities remain the broad long-term defence, but the real protection comes from owning businesses with pricing power.

The problem is not inflation. It is weak business models

Inflation tends to expose what was already fragile. Companies with thin margins, too much debt, weak brands or highly discretionary products have less room to absorb cost shocks. If they cannot raise prices, margins get squeezed. If they need lower interest rates to make the valuation story work, a higher-rate backdrop becomes a second headache. Warren Buffett has long argued that companies earning consistently high returns on invested capital, meaning they turn capital into profits efficiently, often have pricing power.

That also explains why inflation is not equally bad for every equity sector. The question is not whether costs rise. They usually do. The question is who gets to pass those costs on, who keeps demand, and who still looks necessary when households and businesses start choosing a bit more carefully.

The sectors built to cope

Integrated energy
Energy is the clearest place to start because its revenues are tied most directly to the thing pushing inflation higher. Hartford’s work shows energy has historically been one of the strongest sectors in high and rising inflation, beating inflation 74% of the time with average real returns of 12.9%. If oil stays high, producers and energy infrastructure often benefit first. Good examples are large integrated groups and system-level operators such as Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Shell, TotalEnergies and Enbridge. They are different businesses, but they share real assets, scale and a more direct link between higher energy prices and cash flow.

Property and infrastructure
Property and infrastructure-like assets can also help, though with more nuance. Hartford shows equity real estate investment trusts, or REITs, beat inflation 66% of the time in high and rising inflation periods because rents and asset values can reset over time. The same logic can apply to selected tower, logistics and regulated network businesses, where contracts, leases or tariff structures allow some repricing. Prologis, American Tower, Equinix, NextEra Energy and Southern Company fit that mould. The catch is that utilities still answer to regulators, so pass-through is not always quick or complete. Safe is not the same as bulletproof.

Consumer defensives, luxury and healthcare
Consumer defensives and healthcare usually hold up better when inflation starts to hurt growth as well as prices. People may trade down, but they still buy groceries, detergent, medicines and basic care. Morningstar’s 2026 market-rotation work highlights consumer defensives among the leadership groups outside technology, and the wider lesson is simple: durable brands and habitual demand matter more when the weather turns messy. Walmart, Costco, Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola and Unilever fit that logic. So, in a very different way, do high-end luxury names such as Ferrari, Hermès and LVMH, where brand strength and scarcity can support pricing power at the top end. In healthcare, names such as Johnson & Johnson, Roche, Merck, Eli Lilly and Danaher stand out for less cyclical demand and stronger competitive positions.

Select industrials
Select industrials deserve more credit than they often get. Reuters noted this week that industrials can pass on higher costs better than many assume, especially when they sell mission-critical equipment, replacement parts, grid hardware or services into bottlenecked markets. That makes the sector more interesting than the simple “cyclical equals vulnerable” label suggests. Caterpillar, GE Vernova, Honeywell, Schneider Electric and Eaton are good examples. The better businesses are not just selling machinery. They are selling uptime, installed bases, service contracts and hard-to-delay spending. In inflationary periods, that distinction matters a lot.

The catches arrive quietly

This thesis still has risks. First, not every “defensive” stock has real pricing power. Some simply have defensive branding and little else. Second, if oil falls quickly because the conflict cools, energy’s tailwind can fade just as fast as it appeared. Third, high inflation can still hurt equities overall by compressing valuations, especially for businesses whose profits sit far in the future.

Investor playbook

Stress-test business models, not just inflation forecasts. Ask who can raise prices without losing customers.
Prefer strong balance sheets and steady demand over stories that need cheaper money to look sensible.
Treat sector labels carefully. A good industrial can beat a weak defensive.
Think in layers: broad equity exposure for long-term inflation defence, then tilt toward pricing power.

The real hedge is business quality

When officials start stress-testing 200 USD oil, investors should probably stress-test portfolios too. Not by assuming disaster, and not by dumping equities on sight, but by asking a simpler question: who can still protect margins if inflation lingers and rate cuts keep moving further away? That is the real dividing line.

Inflation is not a verdict on equities. It is an exam for business quality. The winners are often less glamorous than the last market darling, which is mildly inconvenient for cocktail-party storytelling, but rather useful for compounding. In an inflation scare, better equities matter more than brave predictions. That is the part worth remembering once the oil headline fades.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles

Asia Market Quick Take – 26 March, 2026

Thu, 26 Mar 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 26 March, 2026

Key points:

Macro: Iran rejects US ceasefire and counters with 5-point proposal
Equities: Arm gains 16% on plan to sell own chips;Pop Mart -22.5% after revenue miss
FX: NOKUSD leads gains; AUDUSD struggles amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties
Commodities: Gold stays above $4,500 and WTI above $90
Fixed income: European bonds rallied sharply, led by UK long‑end gilts

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<Table with Source>

Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

The White House says talks continue, with the US sending a 15-point proposal to Iran. Iran reviews the plan but won't negotiate, rejecting a US ceasefire and countering with a five-point proposal for control of the Strait of Hormuz.The US deployed thousands of troops to the Middle East, raising concerns about a possible ground invasion.
The US current account deficit narrowed to $190.7 billion in Q4 2025, the lowest since Q1 2021. The goods deficit decreased, and the primary income balance turned to a $23.9 billion surplus. The services surplus and secondary income deficit slightly decreased. The deficit was 2.4% of GDP, down from 3.1% in Q3.
US import prices rose 1.3% in February 2026, the highest since March 2022. Fuel prices increased 3.8%, with petroleum up 2.5% and natural gas jumping 24.7%. Nonfuel imports rose 1.1%. Annually, import prices saw the largest gain since February 2025.
RBA warned the Iran war could raise inflation due to capacity pressures. Australia's CPI fell to 3.7% in February, with trimmed mean CPI at 3.3%, below forecasts. Wall Street's positive lead offered some offset, with hopes for conflict resolution.
UK's annual inflation remained at 3% in February 2026.Clothing prices rose 0.9%, while housing and utilities increased at 4.6%. Inflation slowed for transport, food, recreation, and restaurants. Monthly CPI rose 0.4%, recovering from January's fall. Core inflation increased to 3.2%.

Equities:

US - US equities rallied Wednesday as reports of a 15‑point US peace proposal delivered to Tehran raised hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the Middle East conflict. The Dow rose 0.9%, the S&P 500 gained 0.7% and the Nasdaq 100 advanced 0.8%. Falling WTI crude prices and sharply lower Treasury yields eased inflation concerns and lifted risk appetite. Technology stocks led, with Nvidia up 2% and AMD and Intel surging over 7%, while Super Micro Computer bouncing 8.2%. PDD gained 4.6% despite missing net profit estimates In after hours, Arm holdings rallied 16% after planning to sell its own chips, aiming to generate $15b annually within 5 years.
EU - The STOXX 50 gained 0.6% to 5,627, while the STOXX 600 climbed 1.2% to 586. Although Tehran rejected US ceasefire proposals, markets welcomed Washington’s signal to prioritize stability and lower energy prices. Banks led gains as bond markets stabilized, with ING, Deutsche Bank, Santanderand BBVA up over 2%. Industrials and chemicals also advanced as natural gas prices fell for a fourth session, boosting margin outlooks.
Asia – On Wednesday, Asian markets rallied on optimism about US-Iran ceasefire talks, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rising 2.4%. Major indices saw gains: Nikkei 225 (+2.87%), TWSE (+2.54%), ASX 200 (+1.85%), KOSPI (+1.59%), Shanghai Composite (+1.30%), and Hang Seng (+1.09%). Chinese tech stocks surged following regulatory actions against unfair competition, with Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com gaining significantly.Pop Mart's shares dropped 22.5% due to concerns over Labubu reliance and missed earnings.Haidilao fell 11.1% aftera surprise dividend cut, but analysts expect positive 2026 growth.On Thursday morning, Nikkei 225 rose 0.42%, while Kospi dropped 1.29%, hit by declines in Samsung and SK Hynix. ASX 200 was up 0.16% at 8,547.60, as gains in financials offset losses in miners.Market sentiment leaned downside due to Tehran rejecting US peace proposals, despite US assurances of ongoing talks.

Earnings this week:

Thursday - Veritone, Designer Brands, Oxford, Commercial Metals Company, Meituan
Friday - Carnival Corporation, The Metals Company, Super League, AutoPlus, Ping an, BYD

FX:

Several G10 currency pairs exhibited notable movements against the USD due to geopolitical uncertainties and market dynamics. The NOKUSD was the best performer, appreciating by 0.71%. Meanwhile, the AUDUSD fell by 0.72%, marking it the worst performer within the group.
JPY also weakened, USDJPY reaching 159.47, maintaining its position above the crucial 159 level.
EURUSD depreciated by 0.40%, settling at $1.1561, marking its largest one-day percentage decline since earlier in March. These movements reflect the market's reaction to the uncertainty surrounding US-Iran ceasefire negotiations and the rebalancing activities of fund managers as they approached the month-end and quarter-end.
CAD weakened, with USDCAD climbing to 1.3813, the highest since January 21, 2026, surpassing its 200-day moving average at 1.3805.

Commodities:

Oil rose as Washington and Tehran issued conflicting statements on ending the war that has shut the Strait of Hormuz, curbed crude output and stoked energy‑crisis fears, with WTI nearing $91 after Wednesday’s 2% drop and Brent above $102 as the White House touted talks while Iran demanded sovereign control of the waterway.
Gold steadied near $4,510 after a two‑day rebound of over 2% as traders weighed conflicting US–Iran signals, with the White House touting talks and a 15‑point proposal, Tehran rejecting US overtures and setting conditions, and the US sending thousands of troops, stoking invasion fears.

Fixed income:

Treasury futures largely held early gains within a narrow US range; the belly softened after a tailed 5‑year note auction, but lower oil prices kept yields below Tuesday’s levels. A sharp rally in European bonds provided support, led by the UK, where long‑end gilts richened by more than 10bp in 10s and 30s. Australia’s 3‑year yield rose after RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent said the board remains focused on inflation. Overnight-indexed swaps are pricing in a 48% chance of three rate hikes by year‑end, up from 28% on Wednesday. New Zealand, Japan and the US are set to auction debt.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

The AI boom no longer wants flatmates

Wed, 25 Mar 2026 09:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

AI is shifting from partnership mode to control mode.
The new prize is not just innovation, but margin, bargaining power and access to capital.
For investors, the big question is who owns the bottlenecks, not just who writes the cleverest code.

The first phase of the artificial intelligence boom felt almost cosy. One company built the model, another funded it, another designed the chips, and someone else supplied the memory. Everyone had a role, everyone had a buzzword, and everyone looked like a winner.

That mood is starting to change.

Three recent stories point in the same direction. OpenAI has warned investors that its dependence on Microsoft for financing and compute, meaning the processing power needed to train and run models, is a risk. SK Hynix is weighing a US listing through American depositary receipts, or ADRs, to fund more artificial intelligence capacity and possibly win a richer valuation. Arm, long known for licensing chip designs, is now moving into selling its own central processing units, or CPUs. Different headlines, same message: in AI, renting critical parts of the stack is starting to look expensive.

Partnerships are getting pricier

OpenAI’s disclosure is the clearest sign that even the poster child of AI no longer wants to lean too heavily on one partner. Microsoft has been crucial. It has provided money, cloud infrastructure and strategic backing. But dependence has a cost. When one company supplies a substantial part of your funding and computing power, it also shapes your room to manoeuvre.

This is not a simple breakup story. Microsoft still matters enormously to OpenAI. But the tone has shifted from gratitude to risk management. That is revealing. AI is becoming so capital hungry that even the biggest names want more optionality. They want more than one funding source, more than one compute partner, and ideally more leverage in future negotiations.

For investors, this is a useful reality check. The AI market is not just a contest between chatbots or model releases. It is increasingly a contest over dependence. The less you rely on a single supplier, customer or financier, the more strategic freedom you keep. In most industries that sounds sensible. In AI it may become survival.

From blueprints to the cash register

Arm’s move is different in form but similar in logic. The British company built its name by licensing chip technology to others. It sold the blueprint, not the building. Now it wants to sell the building too.

That shift is about economics. Arm’s own finance chief put it in unusually plain terms, as reported by Bloomberg. On a theoretical USD 1,000 chip, Arm might get about USD 50 in licensing revenue when a customer uses its instruction set. If the customer uses Arm’s designs, the payoff is about USD 100. If Arm makes the chip itself, the gross profit can be about USD 500.

That is not a minor adjustment. That is a company walking closer to the cash register.

The product itself also says something important about where AI is heading. Arm’s new CPU is designed to work alongside the powerful accelerator chips used in data centres. In simple terms, it helps organise the traffic so the expensive AI hardware is used more efficiently. That makes the move less about replacing Nvidia and more about claiming a bigger role in the broader system.

Still, this is where things get awkward. Many of Arm’s customers also license its technology and build their own chips. So the company is moving closer to the money, but also closer to potential conflict. In AI, partner and rival are increasingly separated by little more than a boardroom mood swing.

Wall Street joins the chip war

SK Hynix adds the final piece to the picture: capital markets are now part of the AI competition.

The South Korean memory chipmaker is considering raising as much as 10 trillion won to 15 trillion won, or about USD 10 billion, through a potential US ADR listing. The money would help fund new AI infrastructure and expand capacity for advanced memory products. That is the obvious part.

The more interesting part is what a US listing could do beyond funding. It could give SK Hynix access to a deeper investor base and, just as importantly, to the kind of valuation premium that US markets often give to companies seen as central to the AI build-out. Bloomberg points to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company as a useful precedent. Its ADR helped pull in foreign investor flows and, at one point, traded at a premium of more than 30% to its Taipei listing.

That tells us something bigger. In AI, access to capital is becoming a strategic asset in its own right. The company with the best technology does not always win most cleanly if another can finance expansion faster, attract more passive inflows, or tell its story to the market that is most willing to pay up for it.

For investors, that broadens the map. AI advantage does not sit only in software or chip design. It also sits in listing venue, funding flexibility and the ability to keep spending when demand is running hot.

When control becomes friction

There are obvious risks to this control race. First, vertical integration can strain relationships. Arm may unsettle customers that once saw it as a neutral supplier. OpenAI’s search for more independence could also create friction with Microsoft over time. Second, more control usually means more spending. AI economics look dazzling in presentations, but less so when cash burn and infrastructure bills arrive on schedule. Third, geopolitics still sits over the sector like a stern auditor. Chips, memory and data centre hardware remain exposed to export controls, supply disruptions and policy shifts. Early warning signs are simple: colder partnership language, bigger spending promises without matching returns, and customers quietly building around suppliers rather than with them.

The keys to the building

The first act of the AI boom was about access. Get the model, rent the cloud, buy the chips, join the excitement. The second act looks harder and far more interesting. Companies now want the keys to the building. They want their own compute options, their own route to investors, and a larger share of the economics that sit behind every query, every server rack and every watt of power.

That does not mean partnerships disappear. It means partnerships are becoming more conditional, more strategic and more expensive. For long-term investors, that is the real thread running through these stories. The next AI winners may still invent brilliant things. But they may be defined even more by what they own, what they control, and how little they need to ask anyone else for permission.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles Theme - Artificial intelligence Artificial Intelligence UKMustRead

What Iran means for markets now: three scenarios for investors

Tue, 24 Mar 2026 10:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

The market now needs a scenario map, not a single heroic prediction.
A ceasefire likely helps growth and cyclicals, while a longer soft war favours defence and HALO.
A sharper escalation mainly benefits energy and security-linked equities, though few areas stay untouched.

The market is learning an old lesson again. When geopolitics gets loud, the right question is not “what is the one trade?” but “what happens if the next headline points in three different directions?” That matters even more now because the latest news is mixed. On 23 March 2026, President Donald Trump said productive contacts had led him to postpone planned strikes on Iran’s energy grid for five days, yet Tehran denied any talks and Iran launched fresh missile attacks on Israel. Oil fell hard on hopes of diplomacy, then rebounded as those hopes frayed. That is not clarity. It is a reminder to think in scenarios.

Scenario one: ceasefire and a relief rally

The bullish version is simple. Backchannel diplomacy starts to work, hostilities cool, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz begins to normalise. In that scenario, the market probably rushes back toward what it briefly celebrated on Monday: lower oil, lower inflation fear, and a friendlier backdrop for long-duration assets. The likely beneficiaries are growth and technology, especially the parts of the market that suffered most from rising discount rates. Travel, airlines, transport and consumer discretionary names would also stand to benefit because fuel pressure eases and recession fears soften. This is the scenario where the market rediscovers excitement. It usually does that very quickly.

That said, ceasefire does not mean defence suddenly becomes irrelevant. Defence budgets are increasingly policy-driven, not purely headline-driven. Reuters reported in January that European Union member states’ defence spending rose to EUR 343 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach EUR 381 billion in 2025. So even in a relief rally, defence companies may lose some urgency premium without losing its structural case. In other words, peace would help the market’s mood faster than it would shrink Europe’s procurement pipeline.

Scenario two: a softer war that drags on

This is probably the most useful scenario for portfolio thinking because it is messy, realistic and not especially cinematic. Hostilities continue, but without a full regional rupture. Oil stays elevated, shipping remains difficult, and governments keep reaching for reserves and emergency measures rather than a diplomatic grand finale. Brent oil rebounded above 102 USD on 24 March and Japan sees reserve releases as necessary because the supply disruption has no clear end yet. This is the kind of environment where the market stops paying up for dreams and starts paying for reliability.

That is where our Defence theme basket and HALOShortlist start to earn their keep. HALO, short for Heavy Asset, Low Obsolescence, is not about predicting war. It is about owning business models built around hard assets, replacement demand, pricing power and long-lived usefulness. In a slower, noisier conflict, the relative winners are often integrated energy, energy infrastructure, regulated utilities, infrastructure operators and other businesses with real-world assets and contracts. Defence also fits because governments rarely respond to a more dangerous world by deciding they need less air defence, fewer missiles or smaller satellite capability. Reuters reported this week that Germany is considering a separate EUR 10 billion military satellite network with Rheinmetall, OHB and Airbus, which says a lot about where strategic spending is still heading.

Scenario three: escalation and a harsher invoice

The ugly scenario is a deeper attack on Iran’s southern coast or islands, a broader regional response, or a more formal attempt to force maritime passage. Bahrain has proposed a United Nations resolution authorising force to protect shipping, while France has pushed a more conciliatory draft focused on de-escalation. Reuters reported that some analysts see Brent reaching 150 USD if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut through April. If that happens, this stops being a sector rotation story and becomes a broad market stress event.

In that world, “beneficiary” needs an asterisk the size of a tanker. Very few equities are likely to feel good in absolute terms. But relative winners would probably include integrated energy producers, parts of midstream infrastructure, defence primes and suppliers, and selected security, surveillance and aerospace names. The logic is not subtle. Higher oil lifts cash flows for producers outside the bottleneck, while a wider conflict tends to pull more spending toward energy security, military systems and strategic communications. In other words, even in the worst-case scenario, our Defence and HALOShortlist still look like relative beneficiaries, not because they escape the damage, but because their cash flows are tied more closely to scarcity, security and real assets.

What could upset the map

The first risk is a faster de-escalation than the market expects. Oil would cool, yields could follow, and leadership may swing back toward growth faster than many defensively minded investors would like. The second risk is economic damage from high energy prices even without full escalation. The market is already debating higher-for-longer rates, and that matters because it can hurt broad equity valuations, including some defensive ones. The third risk is execution. Defence and HALO may have the right logic, but supply chains, procurement delays and political hesitation can still get in the way. A good theme can still have slow receipts.

Investor playbook

If ceasefire gains traction, watch for leadership to rotate back toward growth, travel and rate-sensitive cyclicals.
If the war grinds on, real assets, contracted cash flows and defence demand may remain relatively sturdier.
If escalation widens, think in terms of relative resilience, not clean winners. Panic is rarely tidy.
Keep the defence theme and HALO shortlist as frameworks, not prophecies.

When the map matters more than the headline

The hook here is not that war is investable. It is that market stress has a habit of revealing what a portfolio is actually made of. The latest Iran headlines make that point sharply because they offer just enough hope for a relief rally and just enough danger for another oil spike. That is exactly when scenario thinking becomes more useful than conviction theatre.

A ceasefire would reward optimism. A softer war for longer would reward reliability. A sharper escalation would reward hard assets and hard power, at least on a relative basis. The best investors do not pretend to know the next headline. They build a map for what happens if it arrives wearing three different outfits.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles

Market Quick Take - 19 March 2026

Thu, 19 Mar 2026 07:25:00 Z

Market Quick Take – 19 March 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

Equities: US and Europe fell on oil and rate fears, while Asia rose on chip strength and Korea reform hopes.
Volatility: VIX elevated, Fed uncertainty, oil-driven inflation risk, event-heavy calendar, protection demand high
Digital Assets: Crypto tracks macro, ETF flows mixed, IBIT relatively resilient
Fixed Income: US short treasury yield jump post-FOMC, yield curve flattens. JGB yields calmer awaiting BoJ Governor Ueda presser.
Currencies: US dollar rises on FOMC and as safe haven as war in Iran intensifies concerns. CHF not serving as a safe haven.
Commodities: Brent surges while gold, silver and copper slump as Middle East escalation and hawkish Fed unsettle markets
Macro events: Swiss National Bank, Sweden Riksbank, Bank of England, ECB Meetings

Macro headlines

The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75% at the Wednesday FOMC meeting, citing solid economic activity and elevated inflation amid uncertainty from the Iran conflict. One rate cut is expected this year and another in 2027, no material change from the prior forecasts from December. GDP growth forecasts were raised for 2026 through 2028, while unemployment and inflation projections were slightly adjusted upward. The vote on the decision to keep the rate unchanged was 11-1, with only Stephen Miran dissenting in favour of a cut. Powell stated the Fed won't overlook energy-induced inflation and discussed future rate hikes, though they aren't the base case for most.
Middle Eastern energy attacks raised fears of global disruptions. Iran targeted a Qatari LNG plant after Israel struck Iran's South Pars field and Qatari authorities cited “extensive damage” after at least one missile was not intercepted. Trump, aware of the Israeli attack, advised against further strikes and waived the Jones Act for 60 days to lower US transport costs.
The Bank of Japan left its policy rate unchanged at 0.75% as expected, with one hawk dissenting in favour of a 25-bp hike. The statement guided for further tightening if inflation develops as expected and did not change its price forecasts despite the uncertainty from the war in Iran. Short Japanese yields were steady to a basis point higher, suggesting that forward expectations for Bank of Japan tightening remain for a possible hike in either at the April or June meeting followed by a likely further hike later this year. Governor Ueda is out speaking in late Tokyo trading hours Wednesday as this report is being compiled.
Japan's core machinery orders fell 5.5% to ¥982.4 billion in January 2026, better than the expected 9.6% drop. Manufacturing orders fell 12.5%, while non-manufacturing rose 6.8%. Private-sector orders rose 13.7% annually, exceeding forecasts. These orders are a key indicator of future capital expenditure.
US producer prices rose 0.7% in February 2026, the largest increase in seven months, surpassing forecasts. Goods prices increased 1.1%, led by a 48.9% rise in vegetable prices. Service prices rose 0.5%, with traveller accommodation up 5.7%. Core PPI rose 0.5%. Annual headline producer inflation hit 3.4%, with core inflation at 3.9%.
The Bank of Canada kept its overnight rate at 2.25% in March 2026, citing suitable policy amid Middle East conflict-induced energy price volatility. GDP contracted 0.6% in Q4 last year, and CPI inflation is expected to rise due to trade costs and higher energy prices, despite February's 1.8% inflation.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0700 – UK Jan. Unemployment Rate / Average Hourely Earnings
0700 – UK Feb. Jobless Claims Change / Claimant Count Rate
0830 – Switzerland Swiss National Bank announcement
0830 – Sweden Riksbank announcement
1200 – UK Bank of England announcement
1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
1230 – US Mar. Philadelphia Fed survey
1315 – ECB announcement
1400 – US Jan. New Home Sales
1430 – EIA's Natural Gas Storage Change

Earnings this week

Today: Accenture, Enel, Fedex, Darden Restaurants, Alibaba Group, Accenture, FedEx, PlanetLabs
Friday: Carnival, Xpeng

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 fell 1.4% to 6,624.70, the Nasdaq lost 1.5% to 22,152.42, and the Dow dropped 1.6% to 46,225.15, as the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged, signalled only one cut this year, and faced a hotter producer inflation reading while oil jumped after strikes on Iranian gas facilities. AMD rose 1.6% on a Samsung memory partnership for AI infrastructure, while Nvidia slipped 0.8% despite a China chip-sales approval and Macy’s gained 4.7% on better profit and a softer tariff hit. Micron then fell 4% after hours because a $5 billion increase in fiscal 2026 capital spending overshadowed a strong quarter and upbeat guidance.
Europe: Europe stayed under pressure as the Euro STOXX 50 fell 0.6% to 5,736.85 and the STOXX 600 slipped 0.7% to 598.25, after another jump in oil and gas prices revived inflation worries and ended a two-day rebound. Consumer staples and healthcare led the retreat, while banks held up better as higher energy prices pushed yields higher and kept the higher-rate theme alive. Among stock movers, Prosus dropped 7.4% as Tencent’s heavier AI spending unsettled sentiment around China tech, Logitech fell 6.1% after a UBS downgrade, and Diploma jumped 17.8% to a record after raising full-year guidance. Markets now watch whether takeover talk around UniCredit and Commerzbank can keep financials firmer if energy stress persists.
Asia: Asia’s last full session was much stronger, led by South Korea, where the KOSPI surged 5.0% to 5,925.03 on shareholder-friendly reform hopes and chip strength, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 2.9% to 55,239.40. Gains were calmer elsewhere, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up 0.6% to 26,117.95, China’s CSI 300 rising 0.5% to 4,658.33, and Australia’s ASX 200 edging 0.3% higher to 8,640.60. Samsung Electronics jumped 7.5% after stressing strong AI chip demand and highlighting multi-year supply agreements, while SK Hynix rose 8.9% as investors kept backing the memory story. In Australia, NextDC gained about 3.6% as data-centre names rode the same theme. The question for Thursday was whether that optimism could survive the Fed’s tougher tone and another oil spike.

Volatility

Volatility remains elevated and is still being driven by macro uncertainty rather than technical factors. The VIX closed at 25.09 (+12.16%), with short-term measures even higher (VIX1D 22.13, VIX9D 26.03), reflecting increased demand for near-term protection around central bank decisions and geopolitical risks. The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, but highlighted elevated uncertainty, particularly around inflation and the impact of rising energy prices linked to tensions in the Middle East. With Brent crude briefly moving above $112, investors are now balancing two risks: persistent inflation that delays rate cuts, and weaker growth if energy costs remain high.
Today remains event-heavy, with ECB and BoE decisions, US data, and key earnings all potential catalysts, meaning volatility is likely to stay elevated in the near term rather than quickly fading.
SPX expected move: Options pricing suggests the S&P 500 is implying roughly a ±99-point move (±1.5%) into Friday, while today’s expiry alone implies around ±68 points (±1.0%), reflecting a market that is cautious but not pricing extreme stress.
Skew indicator: Short-term positioning remains defensive. In today’s expiry, downside puts around the 6,625 level continue to trade richer than equivalent calls, indicating investors are still willing to pay more for protection than for upside exposure.

Digital Assets

Digital assets are trading in line with broader macro sentiment, with pressure following the Fed’s cautious tone and the rise in oil prices. Bitcoin is trading around $70,600, Ethereum near $2,180, while Solana and XRP are also slightly lower. The key takeaway for investors is that crypto is once again behaving like a macro-sensitive asset, reacting to interest rate expectations, dollar strength, and geopolitical developments rather than purely crypto-specific drivers.
Crypto-linked equities such as COIN, MSTR, MARA, RIOT and CLSK are also under pressure, reinforcing the broader risk-off tone across the digital asset ecosystem.
Flows into crypto ETFs remain mixed. Recent data shows net outflows from US-listed bitcoin and ether ETFs on 18 March, suggesting a pause in institutional demand. However, the previous session still saw solid inflows into IBIT and ETHA, indicating that longer-term interest remains intact but more selective. For investors, this points to consolidation rather than a structural reversal, with flows increasingly dependent on macro stability.

Fixed Income

US Treasuries sold off hard Wednesday and the yield curve flattened, with much of the move in the wake of the FOMC meeting, but likely inspired as well by the further dramatic pressure higher on global energy prices from the latest escalation in the war in Iran. The benchmark 2-year yield rushed higher to 3.80% after trading near 3.73% before the Fed meeting and closing Tuesday at 3.67%, while the benchmark 10-year yield rose less sharply, up more than six basis points Wednesday and adding less than a basis point in Asian trading hours Wednesday, trading below 4.28% as of this writing and below the cycle high of 4.30% from late January.
Japan’s government bond yield curve steepened, with the benchmark 2-year JGB yield nudging a basis point higher to 1.27% before Bank of Japan governor Ueda’s press conference and the benchmark 10-year JGB yields absorbing the jump in US treasury yields and inflation concerns from the rush higher in global energy prices stemming from the war in Iran as it rose four basis points to 2.26%.

Commodities

Brent crude surged to USD 113 after Iran carried out attacks on a major LNG facility in Qatar, reportedly causing “extensive damage.” The strike is one of several targeting energy infrastructure following Israeli attacks on Iran’s giant South Pars gas field, marking a clear escalation with direct implications for global energy supply. The six-month Brent spread surged to a fresh record near USD 25 highlighting the acute tightness.
Meanwhile, WTI continues to trade below USD 100, with the discount to Brent widening to USD 16.5. This divergence reflects both regional dislocations and rising speculation that the Trump administration may consider measures such as an export ban to curb domestic fuel prices or potentially intervene more directly in oil markets.
Natural gas prices in Europe and Asia look set to extend gains after Qatar confirmed significant damage at the Ras Laffan complex, the world’s largest LNG export hub. The site—already effectively cut off since the start of hostilities—may face a prolonged restart timeline even in the event of a ceasefire. The EU gas benchmark jumps 35% on the opening, up 128% month-to-date, underscoring the market’s sensitivity to supply disruptions from the Gulf.
Copper slumped to a December low of USD 5.44 per pound as surging energy costs raise concerns about global growth and, by extension, demand for industrial metals. The decline follows weeks of rising exchange-monitored inventories, which reached a multi-decade high and eroded investor appetite. The combination of weak fundamentals and a technical breakdown have triggered an acceleration in long liquidation.
Gold fell sharply for a second day after breaking key support below USD 5,000, with profit-taking accelerating amid a stronger dollar and a more hawkish tone from Fed Chair Jerome Powell following the latest FOMC meeting. Silver tracked the move lower but underperformed, reflecting its higher beta to both gold and the economic cycle. Concerns that elevated energy costs may weigh on global activity add further pressure, while its sensitivity to speculative positioning continues to amplify downside moves during corrections. In the current environment of extreme uncertainty, recent popular trades suffer the most, no matter what one may otherwise think about the longer-term outlook.

Currencies

The US dollar strengthened on the back of the FOMC meeting, perhaps in part on the meeting outcome, but likely more so on safe haven seeking on the fresh spike in world energy prices on the escalation of attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf region as the war in Iran continues. For whatever reason, US treasury yields surged as the Fed predicted higher growth and slightly higher inflation in its forecasts and this fresh pressure higher in energy prices suggests at least near-term inflation risks have risen further. EURUSD dropped back below 1.1500 to near 1.1470 after a 1.1450 low, with the price action relatively calm when noting that global oil prices posted their highest daily closing levels since the conflict started and major equity indices are back near the lows at the start of the week, when EURUSD traded a 1.1411 low.
USDJPY failed to take out 160.00 after testing just above the recent 159.75 high and even hitting 159.90 amidst broad USD strength, with the Bank of Japan maintaining a tightening posture and not surprising either way in the monetary policy statement. Bank of Japan governor Ueda is out speaking as this report is being compiled.
EURCHF rose to local more than two-week highs and briefly touched 0.9100 ahead of the SNB and ECB meetings today, perhaps as gold prices retreated sharply yesterday, but in any case a notable shift in the CHF behavior as it weakened despite risk sentiment cratering elsewhere.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Advanced orders Europe Employment United Kingdom European Union (EU) XAUUSD USD EURUSD USDJPY Energy Sector Technology S P 500 index Quick Take Weekly Newsletter

Asia Market Quick Take – 19 March, 2026

Thu, 19 Mar 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 19 March, 2026

Key points:

Macro: Fed maintains rates. Middle east attacks further raisefears
Equities: Equities fell across; Micron down 4.3% despite tripling revenue
FX: USD rallies; USDJPY nears 160; CHF volatile awaits SNB decision
Commodities: Gold -4%, sixth drop in a row, longest since late 2024
Fixed income: Treasuries down; front end leads; first 25bp cut seen June 2027

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75% in March 2026, citing solid economic activity and elevated inflation amid uncertainty from the Iran conflict. One rate cut is expected this year and another in 2027. GDP growth forecasts were raised, while unemployment and inflation projections were slightly adjusted upward. Votes were 11-1 with unchanged dot plots. Powell stated the Fed won't overlook energy-induced inflation and discussed future rate hikes, though they aren't the base case for most.
Middle Eastern energy attacks raised fears of global disruptions. Iran targeted a Qatari LNG plant after Israel struck Iran's South Pars field. Trump, aware of the Israeli attack, advised against further strikes and waived the Jones Act for 60 days to lower US transport costs.
Japan's core machinery orders fell 5.5% to ¥982.4 billion in January 2026, better than the expected 9.6% drop. Manufacturing orders fell 12.5%, while non-manufacturing rose 6.8%. Private-sector orders rose 13.7% annually, exceeding forecasts. These orders are a key indicator of future capital expenditure.
US producer prices rose 0.7% in February 2026, the largest increase in seven months, surpassing forecasts.Goods prices increased 1.1%, led by a 48.9% rise in vegetable prices. Service prices rose 0.5%, with traveler accommodation up 5.7%. Core PPI rose 0.5%. Annual headline producer inflation hit 3.4%, with core inflation at 3.9%.
The Bank of Canada kept its overnight rate at 2.25% in March 2026, citing suitable policy amid Middle East conflict-induced energy price volatility. GDP contracted 0.6% in Q4 last year, and CPI inflation is expected to rise due to trade costs and higher energy prices, despite February's 1.8% inflation.

Equities:

US - S&P 500 dropped 1.4%, the Nasdaq 100 fell 1.3%, and the Dow lost 1.6%. Many Fed officials projected no rate cuts in 2026, citing tariffs and elevated energy prices, while futures markets echoed doubts, especially after a hotter‑than‑expected PPI print. Rising energy prices—driven by new strikes by Israel on Iranian gas infrastructure and Iran’s retaliation on Qatar’s Ras Laffan gas hub —pushed yields higher and weighed broadly on stocks. Visa and Mastercard slid over 3%, Walmart and B&G fell more than 2.5%, while Micron finished flat ahead of earnings. In after hours, Micron fell 4.43% despite reporting revenue that tripled on memory chip demand.
EU -The STOXX 50 fell 0.5% to 5,744, while the STOXX 600 dropped 0.7% to 598. Tech led the decline after early‑week outperformance, with SAP down 2.5% and Prosus sinking 7.4%. Higher natural gas prices pressured utilities, dragging Enel more than 3% lower while energy stocks led, with Maersk and Equinor gaining 1%-3%. UniCredit lagged peers as markets awaited updates on Commerzbank shareholders’ response to its $40 billion bid.
Asia – On Wednesday, Asian markets closed higher, driven by gains after the announcement of shareholder value enhancement measures. The KOSPI surged 5%, led by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, following reforms by the Financial Services Commission. The Nikkei 225 rose 2.9%, with several stocks reaching record highs. The Hang Seng Index was up 0.6%, marking its longest winning streak since January. The CSI 300 increased by 0.5%, while the ASX 200 edged up 0.3%. However,Asian markets fell on Thursday morning as Middle East tensions and rising oil prices hurt sentiment. KOSPI dropped 2.8%, Nikkei 225 slipped 2.4%, and ASX 200 lost 1.6%. Tencent ADRs fell 4.6% after earnings report shows buy backs will be cut to fund AI spend which is expected to double to 36b yuan.

Earnings this week:

Thursday: AIA Group, Alibaba, Fed Ex, Accenture
Friday:Xpeng, Meituan

FX:

USD rallied after Fed Chair Powell's press conference maintained interest rates. Boosted by higher-than-expected US PPI data and Middle East tensions, DXY rose to 100.18.
USDCAD increased 0.3% to 1.3725 after the Bank of Canada held its rate steady, as expected.
Current market focus is on possible Swiss National Bank action affecting Swiss franc volatility. EURCHF overnight volatility rose significantly as the pair traded below the 0.91 handle. USDCHF rose 1% to 0.7927, the weakest since January.
EURUSD fell 0.6% to 1.1469. Spot and options volumes remain at 50%-60% of recent averages.
USDJPY climbed for the first time this week to 159.81, potentially approaching the key 160 level.

Commodities:

Gold steadied near $4,835 after a near-4% plunge and six straight declines—the longest since late 2024—as the Fed held rates while signalling one cut this year, with Powell stressing more progress on inflation and officials warning the Middle East war and surging energy prices cloud the outlook.
Oil climbed as attacks on key Middle Eastern energy sites raised disruption fears, with WTI up 3.4% to $98.69 in early Thursday trade and US natural gas up 4.7% after Iran hit a major LNG facility in Qatar and vowed more strikes following attacks on the South Pars field.
Copper fell 3% in London after Iran warned it would target Gulf energy assets in retaliation for US‑Israel strikes on the South Pars field and Asaluyeh facilities, cautioning against approaching similar sites in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE.

Fixed income:

Treasuries fell, led by the front end, after the Fed held rates 11–1, upgraded growth, and still pencilled one cut this year; Powell said cuts require more disinflation, didn’t rule out hikes, and vowed to stay until a successor is confirmed and the DOJ probe concludes. Fed‑dated OIS turned more hawkish, pricing ~16bp of cuts by year‑end vs 25bp Tuesday, with the first full 25bp of easing pushed to June 2027 from year‑end.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

The FX Trader: BoJ leads seven incoming central bank meetings

Wed, 18 Mar 2026 14:25:00 Z

Political considerations in the mix for the BoJ.

The latest

Muted volatility is the uninspiring watchword of the day across much of FX as the US dollar remains a barometer of cross-market risk sentiment. The US dollar peaked at the Friday close and around the Monday opening before generally weakening until early today as risk sentiment stabilized, even without notably positive news coming from the war front in Iran or sense the flows of oil and gas are set to normalize in any way through the Hormuz Strait.

The USD began firming from an early Wednesday low as crude oil prices are misbehaving badly once again later in the day, with the Brent crude oil benchmark rising sharply to new highs and above the highest daily close of the cycle (surprisingly 103.42 versus 108+ as of this writing) as Israel is bombing Iran’s energy infrastructure and Iran counters with threats to attack regional energy production infrastructure “previously thought safe”.

The USD is dually a safe haven from higher oil prices, enjoying both 1) the usual liquidity angle and the fact that the market was profoundly negative on the US dollar coming into this crisis (which hasn’t been priced as a crisis just yet, but more like a “cause of concern” and 2) because the US enjoys better supplied energy markets and vastly lower prices as it is closer to self-sufficiency in oil if regional imports are included in the mix, and total self sufficiency in gas.

Another currency enjoying a tailwind from the recent rise in oil and gas prices and with a turbo-charged rally yesterday is the Norwegian krone. EURNOK dove below 11.02 today, already yesterday clearing all the key range lows since early 2023 and brining the psychologically important 11.00 into view. Plenty more potential for an even lower EURNOK as long as energy deliveries to Europe are in doubt. A currency not providing any safe haven cachet

Central bank cavalcade today and tomorrow.
The BoJ is the most interesting for potential signals. For most currencies, the coming central bank meetings are far less important than the additional volatility risks from any dramatic news from the war in Iran – or even just the market deciding that it is being too complacent – something we have argued in recent days. But a quick rundown of each of the central banks meeting today and tomorrow.

Bank of Canada 1345 GMT Wednesday
Bottom line: not looking for surprises. The BoC was out just before we go live with this report. No surprise to see a muted reaction as the BoC prefers to “look through” the uncertainty from higher oil prices and the impact on inflation for now, concentrating on risks to lower growth. The market has priced a possible BoC hike for later this year, but the Canadian economic data is surprising very negatively lately and inflation was heading lower. The economy will weigh greater for the BoC, but the rate is already low.

FOMC Meeting - 1800 GMT Wednesday
Bottom line: market not pricing surprises and unlikely to get firm takeaways from a lame duck Fed Chair and diverse FOMC views in the forecasts. The outlook is clouded by the recent mixed US data,some of which has been positive, and the jump in energy prices with is growth negative/inflation positive, an ugly mix for the dual-mandate Fed. , the market has quickly reduced the number of expected Fed rate cuts for the balance of this year from more than two to slightly less than one since the war in Iran began. We’re al waiting for the new Warsh-led Fed and how it will enable Bessent’s agenda more than this or the next FOMC meeting.

Bank of Japan – Thursday somewhere before or after 0300 GMT
Bottom line: The market needs some guidance and Ueda needs to be careful about his dovish tendencies with USDJPY up against a level (160.00) that Japan’s finance minister doesn’t like after repeated verbal intervention ahead of that level this week. Also, Takaichi is set to meet with Trump tomorrow – new cycle highs wouldn’t be a good look, PR-wise. But what if oil prices are spiking well north of 110/barrel before then? Japan is one of the most reliant large economies to crude oil from the Hormuz Strait. Generally looking for the BoJ avoid pressure on JPY above all else which has to mean guiding for another rate hike soon to firm market expectations that they remain on track for policy tightening. But they have disappointed so often in recent history….
Swiss National Bank (SNB) – Thursday 0830 GMT
Bottom line: SNB won’t need to deliver a super-strong message with EURCHF well above 0.9000 and with gold prices cratering as its safe haven bid hasn’t been there this week after the Monday spike lower. But expect the bank to deliver the message that its preferred tool is FX intervention in the event CHF does begin strengthening again.
Sweden Riksbank – Thursday 0830 GMT
Bottom line: Riksbank has no choice to but wax a bit hawkish needing to do so to consider currency risks from weaker FX if an oil crisis lies ahead – might wax a bit more hawkish to counter risks from poor liquidity as its policy rate looks very low relative to global peers at 1.75%.
Bank of England – Thursday 1200 GMT
Bottom line: The market has fairly removed all the former forward cut anticipation, helping to revive sterling. The Bank of England might look to buy time by wishy washy language fretting risks to inflation and growth but hoping it won’t have to guide for now, hoping clarity emerges before the next meeting. If we get proper risk off from war in Iran, sterling might come under pressure. No rate move is priced in for next several meetings.
ECB – Thursday 1315 GMT
Bottom line: The ECB likely to reflexively talk up inflation risks – but will still want to buy time. The market is penciling in an ECB rate hike with low odds for the late April meeting, higher odds for the June meeting. More hawkish ECB is in the price, so firmer guidance would be needed to add to hike anticipation.

Chart focus: USDJPY
The natural direction of pressure for USDJPY is to the upside as the USD is the dual safe haven on its invulnerability to oil supply disruptions and normal safe haven status, while Japan is over a barrel as long as crude oil prices streak higher, as it is one of the most dependent economies on oil supplies through the Hormuz Strait – and the Bank of Japan tends to underplay inflation risks relative to global peers. Meanwhile, one can’t make up the fact that Japan’s Ministry of Finance continues to intervene just ahead of 160.00 and PM Takaichi is to meet US President Trump on Thursday. Choppy, choppy price action expected if 160.00 is tested on market getting spooked by flows and intervention rumors.

Source: Saxo

FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.
Note: If unfamiliar with the FX board, please see a video tutorial for understanding and using the FX Board.

The AUD has lost some steam today on risk off after AUD probed higher today again – the AU jobs report is up in Australia’s Thursday session. Elsewhere, the big shit has been in NOK strength and USD weakness since early this week faded a bit today.

Table: NEW FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.

USDCAD is threatening to flip to an uptrend on the close today, but really needs a move and close above 1.3750 for confirmation that something is afoot. Elsewhere, the recent new EURJPY “downtrend” is nothing of the sort as that pair is rangebound for now, while Gold is interestingly teetering on a flip to the downside if it closes near current levels today – stay tuned.

John J. Hardy

Global Head of Macro Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Forex Highlighted articles Trump Version 2 - Traders FR US Actualites et Analyses EURUSD USDJPY UKMustRead

Market Quick Take - 18 March 2026

Wed, 18 Mar 2026 07:13:00 Z

Market Quick Take – 18 March 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

Equities: U.S. and Europe edged higher on travel and energy, while Asia stayed selective as chip optimism met oil anxiety.
Volatility: Fed decision, Powell tone, oil and inflation risk, expected move elevated
Digital Assets: Crypto rangebound, Fed focus, IBIT/ETHA inflows
Fixed Income: Global bond markets rally on stable risk sentiment, easing oil prices.
Currencies: USD softens, particularly against JPY on stable risk sentiment. NOK sharply higher.
Commodities: Brent and WTI ease while refined products signal acute tightness; gold awaits FOMC rate guidance
Macro events: Bank of Canada Rate Decision, US FOMC Rate Decision

Macro headlines

Risk sentiment has rebounded after the US close Tuesday as oil prices came under pressure, in part as Iraq has struck an agreement with Turkey to resume oil exports from northern Iraqi fields through a pipeline that was shut earlier this month, boosting the country’s crude output, much of which is held up by the closure of the Hormuz Strait.
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged at today's policy meeting as traders seek guidance from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on the impact of rising oil prices. The surge in energy prices around the world — with US diesel costs topping $5 a gallon this week at the pump — will be scrutinized by the Fed and other central bankers around the world as they steer monetary policy.
US allies resisted President Trump's call to secure shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran allows safe passage for certain vessels through the Strait of Hormuz based on their affiliations.
US pending home sales rose 1.8% in February 2026, surpassing expectations. Gains were seen in the Midwest, South, and West, while the Northeast declined. Year-over-year, sales fell 0.8%. Improved affordability drove the rise, but rising oil prices could affect mortgage rates.
The New York Fed's general business activity index rose to -22.6 in March 2026 from -25.7, still indicating a sharp decline since the post-Covid recovery. The business climate index fell to -46.2, prices charged dropped to 28.8, and employment improved to -8.5. Future activity expectations fell to 12.7.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1000 – Eurozone Feb CPI (final)
1100 – US MBA Mortgage Applications
1230 – US Feb PPI
1345 – Canada Rate Decision
1400 – US Jan Factory Orders
1430 – EIA's Weekly Crude and Fuel Stocks Report
1800 – Fed Rate Decision

Earnings this week

Today: Micron, Jabil, General Mills, Macy's
Thursday: Accenture, Enel, Fedex, Darden Restaurants, Alibaba Group, Accenture, FedEx, PlanetLabs
Friday: Carnival, XPeng

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.2%, the Nasdaq gained 0.5%, and the Dow added 0.1% as investors looked through oil near $100 and turned their attention to the Federal Reserve, while battered travel and alternative-asset names led the rebound. Delta jumped 6.6% and American Airlines gained 3.5% after both raised current-quarter revenue guidance, Uber rose 4.2% on plans to roll out robotaxis in 28 cities using Nvidia software, and Blackstone climbed 4.6% as financials recovered from last week’s private-credit scare. Lemonade jumped almost 16.0% after a Morgan Stanley upgrade, Western Digital rallied 9.6% on a stronger earnings outlook, and Swarmer surged 520.0% in its Nasdaq debut after pricing its IPO at $5 a share.
Europe: The STOXX 600 rose 0.7%, London’s FTSE 100 gained 0.8%, Frankfurt added 0.7%, and Milan climbed 1.2% as utilities and energy steadied the region ahead of this week’s central-bank decisions. Brent stayed above $100, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained largely shut, and that kept the inflation debate very much alive, even as investors still found comfort in defensive pockets. Shell rose 1.7% and BP gained 2.2% on firmer crude, while Springer Nature jumped 12.8% on a better-than-expected 2026 outlook and Sartorius Stedim Biotech added 8.9% after setting new mid-term growth targets. Markets now wait to see whether the European Central Bank sounds calm or reaches for the inflation fire extinguisher.
Asia: Asia was mixed on Tuesday. South Korea’s Kospi rose 1.6% and Taiwan’s Taiex gained 1.5%, while Japan’s Nikkei slipped 0.1%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged up 0.1%, and Shanghai fell 0.9%. This morning, South Korea’s Kospi extended the rebound, opening more than 5% higher as easing oil prices and chip optimism supported risk appetite ahead of the Federal Reserve. Samsung Electronics climbed 2.8% after showcasing its latest HBM4E memory and benefiting from Nvidia’s disclosure that Samsung will produce its new inference chips, while Hyundai rose 3.2% and Kia 3.3% after expanding autonomous-driving ties with Nvidia. The region still looks chip-hungry, but China stayed cautious and the Fed is the next cue.

Volatility

Volatility remains driven by macro events rather than company-specific news, with today’s Federal Reserve decision and Jerome Powell’s press conference as the key catalysts. While rates are expected to remain unchanged, investors are focused on whether the updated dot plot still points to rate cuts later this year and how the Fed assesses inflation risks linked to rising oil prices amid tensions involving Iran. A more cautious or hawkish tone could keep markets unsettled, even without a policy change.
Recent data shows volatility has eased slightly but remains elevated. The VIX closed at 22.37 on 17 March, down modestly on the day, while shorter-term measures show mixed signals, with VIX1D at 17.55 and VIX9D at 22.36. This suggests some near-term event risk is being priced out ahead of the Fed, but uncertainty remains.
SPX expected move: options pricing currently implies a move of around ±102 points, or ±1.52%, into Friday 20 March expiry, reflecting continued sensitivity to macro developments and the upcoming quarterly options expiry.
Today’s skew check: the same-day SPX options chain shows no strong demand for downside protection, with near-the-money calls trading at slightly higher implied volatility than puts. This indicates a cautious but balanced positioning, rather than outright defensive hedging.

Digital Assets

Digital assets are trading in a relatively narrow range ahead of the Fed decision, reflecting broader market caution. Bitcoin is holding near $74,100, Ethereum around $2,330, XRP near $1.53, and Solana just below $95, as investors wait for clearer signals on monetary policy and liquidity conditions.
Institutional demand continues to provide support. On 17 March, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows, led by IBIT, while Ethereum ETFs also saw positive flows, with ETHA contributing meaningfully. This suggests that longer-term investors are still allocating to the asset class, even as short-term uncertainty persists.
At the same time, derivatives positioning points to a more cautious tone beneath the surface. Recent options flow shows increased demand for downside protection in crypto-linked equities such as COIN and MSTR, as well as in IBIT, indicating that some investors are hedging risk into key macro events.
Overall, the setup remains balanced: steady prices and ongoing inflows on one side, with defensive positioning limiting near-term upside conviction.

Fixed Income

US Treasuries rallied again as oil prices eased lower in Asian hours Wednesday, with the benchmark 2-year yield edging below 3.66%, down more than a basis point ahead of today’s FOMC meeting (Fed not priced to deliver any rate moves at the next three meetings). The benchmark 10-year yield fell over two basis points to its lowest of the week , trading below 4.18%.
Japan’s government bonds rallied on crude oil prices easing and stable risk sentiment, with the benchmark 2-year JGB yield down more than two basis points and below 1.26% and the benchmark 10-year JGB yields dropping six basis points to below 2.22%.
US high-yield corporate bonds rallied on stabilizing risk sentiment, if modestly so as the Bloomberg measure we track of high yield bond spreads versus treasuries tightened three basis points to 310 basis points a day after closing at the widest level since June of last year.

Commodities

Brent crude drifted lower back toward USD 100, while WTI traded to a fresh weekly low near USD 92, with the discount between the two benchmarks widening to a near four-year high - developments that suggest some degree of normalisation. However, underlying conditions remain far from balanced. The Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed, with only a limited number of vessels—primarily from Iran-aligned nations—transiting the narrow waterway. Sporadic attacks and the persistent threat of mines continue to constrain flows, tightening global availability of both crude and refined products. Some relief has emerged through increased pipeline flows from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, alongside resumed exports via Turkey from Northern Iraq. Nevertheless, these alternative routes only partially offset the disruption. Attention remains firmly on refinery margins, which continue to signal acute tightness in refined products—most notably diesel and jet fuel.
Gold continues to struggle for momentum, with the risk of a deeper correction building on a break below the 50-day moving average, last at USD 4,978, while a break above USD 5,080 could signal underlying strength. Focus remains on the U.S. dollar, which has softened, and not least today’s FOMC meeting, where investors are seeking guidance after the recent surge in energy prices tempered expectations for rate cuts in 2026. Silver meanwhile continues to hold the USD 77.50 support line.

Currencies

The US dollar weakened as risk sentiment continued its rebound Tuesday, with EURUSD testing the 1.1550 area in Asian trading hours Wednesday before easing back. The JPY was firmer than the euro as global bonds rallied and oil prices dropped back in Asia Wednesday, with USDJPY pushing as low as 158.57, close to a one-week low, before finding support. The Fed meets later today and is not expected to deliver any rate move or hint thereof, with the impact of any guidance complicated by Fed Chair Powell’s lame duck status as his term ends in May.
The Norwegian krone jumped higher Tuesday, with EURNOK pushing below the range stretching back to early 2023 as it pushes on the 11.05 area early Wednesday. Over the last two weeks, the forward expectations for Norges Bank have risen, with the market now looking for high odds of a rate hike by the August Norges Bank meeting as the country absorbs a swell of revenue from its exports of oil and gas at sharply higher prices in coming months.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Advanced orders Europe Employment United Kingdom European Union (EU) XAUUSD USD EURUSD USDJPY Energy Sector Technology S P 500 index Quick Take Weekly Newsletter

Asia Market Quick Take – 17 March, 2026

Tue, 17 Mar 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 17 March, 2026

Key points:

Macro: Fears ease as tankers manage to navigate the Straits of Hormuz
Equities: Nvidia’s Huang unveils new products, sees $1tn AI‑chip sales by 2027
FX: USD weakens; AUD, NZD and SEK outperform on improved risk sentiment shift
Commodities: Brent above $100 for a third day; gold near $5,000
Fixed income: Swaps price a 68% chance RBA lifts its cash rate to 4.1%

------------------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

Fears of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure eased as tankers navigated the chokepoint, raising reopening hopes. Countries are negotiating with Iran for safe passage. The US allows crude shipping and seeks global support, with a US-Iran communication channel active. Emergency crude reserves may be released, and the IEA could tap more stockpiles.
Canada's inflation rate dropped to 1.8% in February 2026 from 2.3% in January, the lowest since July. The decline followed the end of tax breaks, slowing food inflation to 5.3%. Price growth eased for various sectors, and BoC's core rates hit a four-year low of 2.3%.
US industrial production rose 0.2% in February 2026, surpassing the 0.1% forecast. Manufacturing output increased 0.2%, and mining rose 0.8%, while utilities fell 0.6%. Capacity utilization remained at 76.3%, below the long-term average.

Equities:

US - US equities rebounded Monday, with the S&P 500 up 1.1%, the Dow rising 1%, and the Nasdaq gaining 1.2% as markets dialed back fears of a prolonged energy shock. Sentiment improved after several tankers successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz, easing concerns about sustained supply disruptions and pulling oil prices off recent highs. Chipmakers outperformed, with Nvidia up 1.6% and Micron gaining 3.7%, while Meta rose 2.3% on reports of potential workforce changes. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang unveiled new products at its biggest annual event, forecasting its flagship AI chips will drive $1 trillion in sales through 2027.EU – European stocks rose on Monday, breaking a three‑session selloff as investors reassessed the scale of the Persian Gulf energy shock. The STOXX 50 gained 0.4% to 5,740 and the STOXX 600 rose 0.5% to 599. Oil prices eased after LPG tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz, signaling limited export leniency from Tehran and tempering global inflation concerns. Financials tracked firmer bond markets, with Allianz and Deutsche Bank up 1.5%. UniCredit added 0.5% after its €35 billion Commerzbank bid, while chipmakers strengthened globally, lifting ASML by 1.5%.

HK - HangSeng Index rose 1.45%, to 25,834 on Monday, snapping a three‑session decline as gains broadened across sectors. Sentiment improved after China’s January–February activity data beat expectations, with industrial output, retail sales, and fixed investment all surprising to the upside. However, a third day of losses in mainland equities capped advances amid speculation that the Trump–Xi meeting may be delayed due to the war. BYD gained 7% after BYD's Brazil plant won 100k export orders - 50k each from Argentina and Mexico.

Earnings this week:

Tuesday: Tencent music entertainment, Lululemon, Docusign, Oklo,
Wednesday: Geely Auto, Tencent, Geely, Micron,
Thursday: AIA Group, Alibaba, Fed Ex, Accenture
Friday: Xpeng, Meituan

FX:

USD weakened against major currencies, influenced by falling oil prices and increased investor optimism about shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, following President Trump's call for NATO's support to de-escalate regional tensions. DXY fell below 100 level.
USDJPY fell to 159.22, retreating from Friday's high of 159.75, the highest since July 2024. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama vowed preparedness for bold measures in forex markets, although ING strategists see low chances for US-Japan coordinated intervention.
EURUSD increased to 1.1518, supported by favorable conditions. USDCAD dipped to 1.3680 after disappointing Canadian inflation fell to 1.8% for February. GBPUSD rose 0.8% to 1.3333.
Among G-10 currencies, the NZD and SEK outperformed, with NZDUSD up 1.6% to 0.5863 and AUDUSD gaining 1.3% to 0.7075, driven by improved risk appetite.

Commodities:

Gold was little changed near $5,000 an ounce as the US dollar weakened and traders weighed efforts to contain a Middle East oil‑supply shock, with bullion steady after a 0.3% fall in the prior session and a dollar gauge down 0.6%. Silver edged up 0.1% to $80.90, while platinum and palladium advanced.
Oil rebounded after Monday’s 5% slide as investors weighed Middle East supply risks against prospects of more crude, with WTI near $95 and Brent above $100 for a third day as the US readied emergency releases and the IEA signalled further stockpile draws.

Fixed income:

Treasury futures closed near session highs after a global bond rally on slumping oil, with downside hedge unwinds persisting in short‑tenor rate options; Treasuries outperformed swaps as volatility eased, and long‑end swap spreads saw their biggest widening in almost a year, aided by gains in gilts and bunds. Attention turns to the RBA, with swaps pricing about 72bp of tightening by year‑end and a 68% chance of a 25 bpshike today, even as nine economists expects rates to hold at 3.85%.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance. The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.

APAC Research

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Saxo Market Compass - 16 March 2026

Mon, 16 Mar 2026 19:00:00 Z

Saxo Weekly Market Compass

16 March 2026 (recap week of 9 to 13 March 2026)

Headlines & introduction

Energy risk reshaped the macro narrative. Markets spent the week reacting to renewed Middle East tensions and a sharp rebound in oil prices, pushing inflation risks back into focus and triggering repricing across assets. Equities moved in waves of relief rallies and renewed risk aversion, while bond yields climbed and volatility stayed elevated.

Digital assets held relatively firm and options flows showed investors maintaining exposure but increasingly adding portfolio hedges. With oil volatility now feeding directly into inflation expectations and policy outlooks, investors ended the week cautious and focused on the next round of macro catalysts.

Equities

What happened

AI strength balanced oil-driven macro fears. US equities swung between optimism and caution. The S&P 500 rose early in the week before retreating as Brent crude moved back toward the $100 area and Treasury yields climbed.

Technology remained the strongest pocket of the market. Oracle rallied on AI-related guidance, while semiconductor names such as Nvidia, Intel and Micron benefited from continued demand tied to AI infrastructure spending.

Outside the US, European and Asian equities proved more sensitive to energy shocks. The STOXX 600 rebounded early in the week before oil-driven inflation fears returned. Semiconductor leaders such as ASML and Infineon rallied early, while energy majors including Shell and BP benefited from higher crude prices.

Market pulse: AI remains a structural support for equities, but oil prices are driving short-term sentiment.

Looking ahead

Equity markets now face a catalyst-heavy week. The Federal Reserve decision and Chair Powell’s press conference will influence rate expectations, while Micron’s earnings will test whether the AI investment cycle remains intact.

Investors will also watch consumer-facing earnings and global trade signals from companies such as FedEx and Dollar Tree. Together with oil prices, these developments could determine whether equities stabilise or remain headline-driven.

Volatility

What happened

Geopolitics kept volatility elevated. Market volatility remained firm as geopolitical risk drove trading behaviour. The VIX hovered near the high‑20s during the week, while short-dated volatility indicators stayed elevated as investors continued buying protection against sudden market moves.

Options pricing suggested sizeable expected index swings as markets reacted to oil price volatility and geopolitical uncertainty. Rather than fading, volatility remained structurally supported by macro risk.

Market pulse: volatility stayed elevated as geopolitics replaced macro data as the main market driver.

Looking ahead

The upcoming Federal Reserve decision could become the next volatility catalyst. Powell’s comments on inflation and energy-driven price pressures will likely influence volatility expectations across equities and rates.

If oil markets stabilise, volatility may gradually decline. Continued geopolitical uncertainty, however, could keep volatility elevated.

Options sentiment

What happened

Options flow prioritised portfolio protection. Options activity showed consistent demand for downside hedging across indices, financials and rate-sensitive ETFs. Institutional investors appeared focused on protecting portfolios against macro shocks rather than positioning aggressively for upside.

Commodity-related options presented a more balanced picture. Energy producers attracted selective upside positioning, while metals miners saw accumulation-style flows reflecting ongoing interest in precious metals.

Market pulse: investors stayed invested but layered systematic hedges across macro-sensitive sectors.

Looking ahead

Options positioning will likely react to upcoming macro catalysts. Central-bank communication and inflation data could influence hedging demand, particularly in rate-sensitive sectors.

If geopolitical risks persist, demand for downside protection across indices and financials may remain elevated.

Digital assets

What happened

Crypto proved resilient amid macro turbulence. Digital assets held up relatively well compared with equities. Bitcoin traded near the $70k range during much of the week before rising toward the mid‑$70k area late in the period.

Institutional demand remained a key driver. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded fresh inflows during the week, while Ethereum-linked products also attracted demand.

Market pulse: ETF demand continues to anchor institutional interest in crypto.

Looking ahead

Crypto markets will likely track broader liquidity conditions and risk sentiment. A more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve or rising bond yields could pressure digital assets in the short term.

However, continued ETF inflows and institutional adoption remain supportive structural factors.

Fixed income

What happened

Bond markets repriced inflation risk. Government bond yields moved higher during the week as rising oil prices revived inflation concerns. US Treasury yields climbed as markets priced fewer near-term rate cuts.

European yields also rose as investors reassessed inflation risks linked to energy prices. Credit spreads widened briefly before stabilising, reflecting more cautious risk appetite.

Market pulse: bond markets are adjusting to a renewed inflation narrative.

Looking ahead

The Federal Reserve meeting will be the key driver for bond markets. Any signal that policymakers are concerned about energy-driven inflation could push yields higher.

Inflation data and economic indicators will also help determine whether markets continue to price fewer rate cuts.

Commodities

What happened

Oil dominated the commodity complex. Energy markets led commodity moves as supply disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent crude toward the $100–$105 range.

Strategic reserve releases were coordinated in response to the disruption, highlighting the scale of supply risks. Precious metals showed mixed performance as safe-haven demand competed with rising yields and a stronger dollar.

Market pulse: oil became the central macro variable for global markets.

Looking ahead

Energy markets will remain the key variable for commodities. Investors will closely monitor geopolitical developments and the impact of reserve releases on global supply conditions.

Gold and silver may continue reacting to interest-rate expectations and dollar strength rather than pure safe-haven demand.

Currencies

What happened

Dollar strength returned on safe-haven demand. Currency markets reflected rising risk aversion. The US dollar strengthened during the week, while the euro weakened as energy risks weighed on European sentiment.

The Japanese yen hovered near intervention-sensitive levels against the dollar, while commodity currencies showed mixed performance.

Market pulse: FX markets reacted primarily to energy risk and safe-haven flows.

Looking ahead

Currency markets will focus on the Federal Reserve decision and evolving interest-rate expectations.

Energy price developments may continue influencing currency performance, particularly for energy-importing economies such as Europe and parts of Asia.

Conclusion

The week demonstrated how quickly geopolitical shocks can reshape financial markets through energy prices. Oil’s rebound revived inflation concerns and triggered repricing across equities, bonds and currencies.

Investors have not abandoned risk assets, but positioning has become more cautious, with increased hedging across macro-sensitive sectors. With central-bank decisions, inflation data and major earnings ahead, markets enter the new week balancing structural growth themes with heightened macro uncertainty.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.
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This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.

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More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Highlighted articles Equity Trading Macro ETF

Markets continue to price that Iran War ended yesterday.

Mon, 16 Mar 2026 12:45:00 Z

Let's hope the market is correct that this winds down soon.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.

Today’s Links

USD in terminal decline or is the US set to use stablecoins to dollarize the global economy?
Again, have a listen to a great conversation among some analysts who I admire (but don’t necessarily 100% endorse, though I also appreciate their humility), including Michael Every, Brent Johnson (of the US Dollar Milkshake Theory) Izabella Kaminska and Whitney Baker - the last is someone I was not familiar with before listening to this conversation and she certainly holds her own.

Does the US have China over a barrel with this Hormuz Strait naval escort idea?
The very busy Shanaka Anslem Perara certainly thinks so: Very interesting analysis that suggests the US is aggressively playing the energy card to shore up its leverage against China as we wind toward a possible Trump-Xi summit, with the USD as reserve currency angle in play as well - depending on whether China joins to help re-establish traffic through the Hormuz Strait with naval escort.

About those thousands of Chinese fishing boats in geometric formations…
Are they there to provide cover for possible shenanigans? Craig Tindale weighs in.

Markets too complacent as Iran War continues?
You know my view - the FT’s Katie Martin thinks they are too complacent, too.

Total economic war, China style
A Chinese company acquired a major antimony mine in Canada back in 2009, the country’s only of its kind and a significant source of global antimony supply, only to shutter it in 2023, a year before embargoing its own exports of antimony to the US which spiked the price some nine-fold. Antimony is useful for many industrial applications but it is a mission-critical element for military ones, like hardening surfaces and for ammunition. The Bureau substack with an extensive coverage of this interesting story (you can do a Free Trial for access).

Data centers, state of play in nuclear power, Oklo and more.
This interview highly recommended by the legendary “chigrl”, Tracy Shuchart, who wrote a piece on her substack throwing shade on the impact of the big strategic reserve release.

Chart of the Day - JP Morgan / S&P 500 Triptych

On today’s podcast, I mentioned a financial services ETF and its relative weakness as a possible negative harbinger of the outlook for equities as financials are often seen as a leading sector due to the credit cycle. Below I substitute that ETF with the US’ largest commercial bank JP Morgan, showing at some major negative turning points in which the broad S&P 500 was booming to new highs when the financials and JP Morgan had already turned lower and were not confirming that high. No indicator is a sure thing, but this is a loud one that demands explanation before we are to believe that, even if we do get a normalization of flows of oil and gas through the Hormuz Strait and very soon, the market is just set to turn back higher again. The huge internal rotations across equities over the last several months are another sign that something deeper and profound is going on in this market.

Source: Bloomberg

Questions and comments, please!

We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.

This content is marketing material and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.

The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

COT update: Middle East conflict drives dollar squeeze and broad commodity buying

Mon, 16 Mar 2026 09:30:00 Z

Our weekly Commitment of Traders update returns highlighting future positions and changes made by hedge funds and other speculators across commodities and forex during the week to last Tuesday, 10 March 2026

Key points:

Our weekly Commitment of Traders update highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across forex and commodities during the week ending Tuesday, 10 March 2026.
In FX, dollar shorts rapidly unwind amid escalating tensions in the Middle East triggering a sharp shift toward the dollar at the expense of EUR, JPY and GBP.
Speculators increased exposure to crude oil, lifting the combined net long to a 15-month high, while surging fuel products saw net selling as volatility spikes lowered the risk appetite.
Traders remained hesitant to add length in precious metals despite strong gains, with most of the net increase driven by short covering rather than fresh longs
Grains see increased participation from funds as sector rally on energy link and food security concerns

Forex:

The Middle East war is supporting a stronger U.S. dollar primarily through safe-haven demand, energy-price dynamics and positioning adjustments. When geopolitical risk rises and oil prices surge, global investors tend to move capital into dollar-denominated assets while energy-importing economies weaken.

With that in mind, flows were unsurprisingly tilted heavily toward dollar buying in the latest reporting week to 10 March, as speculators continued to rein in an elevated dollar-short position. Currencies and economies most exposed to surging energy prices came under pressure, led by a 23%—or USD 4.6 billion equivalent—reduction in the EUR long ahead of an extended slide in EURUSD to a seven-month low. Meanwhile, short positions in JPY and GBP increased by USD 2 billion and USD 1 billion respectively.

Over the past three weeks, the buildup to and subsequent outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East have triggered a sharp reduction in bearish dollar positioning. Gross dollar shorts versus eight IMM futures have been cut by around 80%, leaving the remaining short at USD 4.7 billion.

Non-commercial IMM forex futures positions versus the dollar

Commodities

The Bloomberg Commodity Index rose 4.1% during the reporting week to 10 March, with gains recorded across all major sectors. Energy led the advance amid the ongoing escalation in the Middle East, driving what has become the largest disruption to global flows of crude oil and refined products in decades. Safe-haven demand also lifted precious metals, while industrial metals were supported by surging aluminium prices amid disruption risks to supply from the Persian Gulf. The biofuel and ethanol link to rising energy prices supported gains in grains and soybeans, as well as sugar, while food security concerns helped underpin demand for wheat.

In energy, the combined crude oil net long in WTI and Brent jumped by 83k contracts to a 15-month high of 466k, with traders clearly not seeing any immediate relief from the unprecedented stockpile release organised by the International Energy Agency. The increase was driven primarily by fresh longs being added while short positions were reduced. At the same time, surging fuel prices and rising volatility triggered some positioning reductions from hedge funds, with both long and short positions being trimmed across the gasoline and diesel contracts.

Traders remained hesitant to add length in precious metals despite strong gains, with most of the net increase driven by short covering rather than fresh longs, highlighting markets that remain in consolidation mode following a year-long rally that lifted prices substantially. Copper saw net selling extend to an 11th week, albeit at a slowing pace, as stockpiles monitored by the three major exchanges continued to rise strongly, reaching a multi-decade high.

Strong buying across the grains sector lifted the combined net long across six contracts to a June 2022 high of 592k contracts, with fresh year-on-year highs recorded in soybeans, corn and KCBT wheat. Despite the latest buying—supporting a strong and continued rebound from USD 5 per bushel support—the CBOT wheat contract maintained an overall net short for an unprecedented 178 consecutive weeks since October 2022. Meanwhile, the ethanol connection also supported short covering in sugar, while a 14% rebound in cocoa from a three-year low triggered a meaningful amount of short covering.

Managed money positions in key commodities futures covering the week to 10 March, 2026

Energy

Metals

Agriculture: Corn, soybeans, wheat, sugar & coffee

What is the Commitments of Traders report?

The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class.

Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and other
Financials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and other
Forex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators)

The main reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of speculators, such as hedge funds and trend-following CTA's are:

They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged
This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments
It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming

Do note that this group tends to anticipate, accelerate, and amplify price changes that have been set in motion by fundamentals. Being followers of momentum, this strategy often sees this group of traders buy into strength and sell into weakness, meaning that they are often found holding the biggest long near the peak of a cycle or the biggest short position ahead of a through in the market.

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8 Jan 2026: Gold and silver face a test of strength as annual index rebalancing begins
6 Jan 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 30 Dec 2025
6 Jan 2026: Gold silver and platinum regain momentum as 2026 opens with familiar risks and new tensions
5 Jan 2026: Oil markets digest Venezuela shock disruption now optionality later
2 Jan 2026: What the steepest US yield curve since 2021 signals as 2026 begins
17 Dec 2025: Gold in review from pure macro trade to cornerstone asset
12 Dec 2025: Commodities weekly The great divergence metals surge while energy slumps
10 Dec 2025: Silvers breakout year From monetary hedge to industrial powerhouse
9 Dec 2025: Crude oils uneasy path toward 2030 and the opportunities it presents
2 Dec 2025: US critical minerals impact on copper silver and platinum
1 Dec 2025: Silver surges to fresh record highs as structural tightness meets macro tailwinds
28 Nov 2025: Commodities weekly Metals take the lead as index hits three year high
20 Nov 2025: Cocoa slump saves the chocolate bar but not your Christmas treats
14 Nov 2025: Commodities show leadership as hard assets outperform an unsettled macro landscape
13 Nov 2025: Crude oil short-term weakness masks long-term supply challenge
10 Nov 2025: Gold and silver break higher as US debt concerns eclipse shutdown relief
7 Nov 2025: Commodities weekly Gold tests AI turbulence as diesel and natgas steal the show
5 Nov 2025: Volatility shocks forced deleveraging and their temporary impact on in-demand commodities
4 Nov 2025: US grains and soybeans: Rally or short squeeze?
3 Nov 2025: Gold From euphoria to consolidation The next leg looks like a 2026 story
24 Oct 2025: Commodities weekly From glut to disruption sanctions lift energy as metal sectors diverge
22 Oct 2025: Gold and silver correction to test the markets true strength
22 Oct 2025: Gold and Silver reset What it means for long-term investors in miners
21 Oct 2025: Crude oil Short-term surplus meets long-term supply risk
20 Oct 2025: Commodities: Flying blind as US shutdown halts COT reporting
20 Oct 2025: Precious metals pause after record highs
10 Oct 2025: Commodities weekly Debasement fears the latest focus fuelling demand
8 Oct 2025: Gold powers through USD 4000 as investors question the old order
3 Oct 2025: Commodities Weekly Shutdown risks boost demand for hard assets
1 Oct 2025: Grain markets pressured by harvest and rising stocks

Educational resources:
A short guide to trading crude oil
The basics of trading wheat online
A short guide to trading gold
A short guide to trading copper
A short guide to trading silver
Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?

Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

More from the author
Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on Twitter and BlueSky social media platforms

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Commodities COT Commodities Crude Oil Natural Gas Gold Silver Copper Platinum Corn Sugar Coffee Gasoline Palladium Wheat Cocoa Cotton Cattle Energy Sector Forex COT FX EURUSD USDJPY AUDUSD USDCAD USDCHF GBPUSD NZDUSD Forex Trump Version 2 - Traders CZ ESMA disclaimer

Market Quick Take - 16 March 2026

Mon, 16 Mar 2026 07:53:00 Z

Market Quick Take – 16 March 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

Equities: Oil-driven inflation fears hit the U.S. and Europe, while Asia also fell as energy risks and rate worries tightened sentiment
Volatility: Middle East conflict, oil above $100, inflation concerns, central-bank week ahead
Digital Assets: Bitcoin near $74k, short-liquidation rebound, IBIT and ETHA inflows supportive
Fixed Income: Long European yields saw highest weekly close since 2011.
Currencies: Euro broadly week, JPY firms on verbal intervention, AUD firms ahead of possible RBA rate hike
Commodities: Crude rises on tightening supply outlook, precious metals pressured by profit-taking and stronger dollar
Macro events: US March Empire Manufacturing & Feb Industrial Production, RBA Meeting early Tue.

Macro headlines

US strikes hit Kharg Island as war in Iran continues. Trump warned Iran's energy infrastructure could be targeted if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed. While traders await a US-led coalition to escort ships, the IEA said oil from a record reserve release will soon reach Asia.
President Donald Trump said he is “demanding” that other countries contribute to the defense of Strait of Hormuz as it remains effectively closed to oil tankers. In an interview with the Financial Times, Trump said he could delay his planned summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping if Beijing doesn’t help unblock strait. He also warned in that interview that NATO would face a “very bad” future if member states fail to help in Hormuz.
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 55.5 in March 2026 due to the US-Iran conflict and rising gas prices, marking a three-month low. Nationwide personal finance expectations fell 7.5%, while inflation expectations held at 3.4%.
US GDP grew an annualised 0.7% in Q4 2025, revised down from 1.4% and the weakest since Q1’s contraction, amid lower exports, consumption, government spending and investment, while imports fell by less than first estimated.
China's economy rebounded in early 2026 with a surprising uptick in domestic consumption and investment, but this acceleration may be hard to sustain due to the war in Iran. Industrial output climbed 6.3% in January-February from a year earlier, while retail sales rose 2.8% and fixed-asset investment expanded 1.8%, with infrastructure investment surging 11.4%.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1230 – US March Empire Manufacturing
1230 – Canada Feb. CPI
1315 – US Feb Industrial Production
1400 – US Mar. NAHB Housing Market Index
0330 – Australia RBA Cash Target announcement

Earnings this week

Tuesday: Alimentation Couche-Tard, Hon Hai Precision, Lululemon, Docusign, Oklo
Wednesday: Micron
Thursday: Accenture, Enel, Fedex, Darden Restaurants
Friday: Carnival

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 fell 0.6%, the Dow Jones dropped 0.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.9% as oil hovered around $100 and the Iran conflict kept stagflation worries alive. Treasury yields rose even after U.S. fourth-quarter GDP was revised down, which was not the comforting mix equity bulls had in mind. Adobe sank 7.6% after its CEO said he would step down, reviving doubts about its AI strategy, while Meta fell 3.8% after a report said it delayed its new “Avocado” model. Ulta Beauty dropped 14.0% on a softer growth outlook, leaving markets heading into the Fed meeting with nerves still frayed.
Europe: Europe closed lower, with the STOXX 600 down 0.5%, the Euro STOXX 50 off 0.6%, and the FTSE 100 down 0.4% as investors priced in a nastier mix of higher energy costs and firmer rate expectations. Banks, miners and industrials stayed under pressure while bond yields pushed higher on fears the oil shock could feed inflation faster than growth. Even so, there were pockets of life: BE Semiconductor jumped 5.6% on takeover interest and Zalando rose about 7.0% after a broker upgrade, while Berkeley Group slipped 1.5% after warning that geopolitical risks were clouding the outlook. Markets now turn to whether oil pressure starts showing up more clearly in upcoming inflation expectations and ECB messaging.
Asia: Asia ended weaker, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng down 1.0%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 falling 1.2%, and the Topix losing 0.6% as high oil prices, softer Wall Street leads and renewed inflation worries hit risk appetite. In Japan, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda warned that yen weakness could worsen imported inflation, adding another layer of policy uncertainty just as growth-sensitive names were already wobbling. Honda tumbled 5.6% after warning of its first annual loss in nearly 70 years as a listed company, while SoftBank Group fell 4.5%, Advantest dropped 3.5%, and Tokyo Electron lost 3.6% as tech and cyclical shares stayed under pressure. The region starts the new week watching oil, currencies and central banks more than heroics.

Volatility

Market volatility remains elevated at the start of the week as investors continue to assess the third week of conflict involving Israel, the United States and Iran, with energy markets still acting as the main transmission channel into broader financial markets. Oil prices remain high — with Brent trading above $100 and U.S. crude near $95 — reinforcing concerns that the conflict could keep inflation pressures elevated just as global growth shows signs of slowing. This combination tends to make investors more cautious toward risk assets and keeps markets sensitive to geopolitical headlines.
At the same time, markets are entering a busy macro week, with central-bank decisions from the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England scheduled over the coming days. With energy prices rising and inflation expectations potentially shifting, investors will closely watch whether policymakers acknowledge the stagflation risks created by the oil shock.
The volatility backdrop reflects this uncertainty. The VIX closed Friday at 27.19, while short-term volatility measures remain elevated with VIX1D at 30.24 and VIX9D at 28.00, signalling expectations for continued headline-driven swings in the near term. Tail-risk indicators remain firm as well, with VVIX at 131.05 and SKEW at 137.76, suggesting investors are still willing to pay for downside protection.
Expected move: based on S&P 500 options pricing, markets imply a move of about ±191 points, or roughly 2.9%, for the S&P 500 into this Friday’s 20 March expiry. For today’s expiration, options pricing still shows a mild downside skew, with near-the-money puts trading slightly richer than calls, indicating investors remain more focused on protecting portfolios against further declines than positioning aggressively for upside.

Digital Assets

Digital assets started the week on firmer footing than equities, with Bitcoin trading around $73,889, Ether near $2,268, Solana around $93.6, and XRP near $1.48 based on the latest market snapshot. Bitcoin briefly traded above $74,000, its highest level in roughly six weeks, helped by a wave of short liquidations that forced bearish traders to close positions and amplified the move higher.
Investor demand through exchange-traded funds also continues to support sentiment. On 13 March, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of about $180 million, including roughly $143 million into BlackRock’s IBIT, while spot Ethereum ETFs attracted about $27 million, with ETHA receiving around $32 million in inflows. This continued demand suggests that institutional investors are still using ETFs as their preferred way to gain exposure to crypto markets.
However, sentiment is not uniformly bullish. Options activity in crypto-linked equities such as Coinbase (COIN) and MicroStrategy (MSTR) showed increased short-dated downside protection late last week, indicating some investors are hedging against potential volatility. For now, the broader picture remains constructive, but digital assets are still closely tied to the macro environment: sustained oil price spikes, higher inflation expectations or a broader risk-off move in equities could still lead to renewed volatility across crypto markets and crypto-related stocks.

Fixed Income

Short-dated US Treasury yields pulled back Friday and in early trading Monday after the rush higher in yields on Thursday, with the benchmark 2-year yield at 3.71% in early trading Monday, two basis points lower from Friday’s close and relative to the multi-month high above 3.76% last week. The benchmark 10-year yield hit new cycle highs since January on Friday, rising almost to 4.29% before settling back to 4.26% in early trading Monday. The cycle high since last August was January’s 4.307% mark.
Japan’s government bond yield curve steepened Monday, with the benchmark 2-year JGB yield pulling back two basis points from its spike higher on Friday, trading above 1.28%, while the benchmark 10-year yield rose slightly to a new local high since early February and above 2.27%. The benchmark 30-year JGB yield rose more than three basis points to 3.565%.
European bonds remain under pressure, with short-dated bonds trading near the cycle highs while longer dated yields rose to new cycle highs. The benchmark 10-year German Bund yield, for example, closed Friday at 2.98%, up from 2.96% the prior day and at its highest level since October of 2023, and its highest daily close since 2011.

Commodities

An index tracking 26 major commodity futures is up 11% this month and 24% year-to-date, driven primarily by strong gains in crude oil and refined fuel products, which have surged around 40–50%. These gains have been partly offset by weakness in precious and industrial metals, led by copper and silver. Meanwhile, grains, soybeans, and sugar have received additional support from their biofuel and ethanol link to rising energy prices, as well as growing concerns about global food security.
Gold tumbled below USD 5,000 and silver below USD 80 in early Asian trading before staging a recovery to move back above those levels. Sentiment has been hurt by a stronger dollar, and investors rotating out of highly profitable positions following a year-long rally, while rising energy costs and inflation concerns have dampened expectations for rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve and other central banks. At the same time, the economic fallout from the war risks slowing global growth, weighing on metals that depend more heavily on industrial demand.
Brent crude trades around USD 105 following a highly volatile session as ongoing developments in the Middle East continue to drive sharp price swings. Some temporary relief emerged after a US strike on Iran’s Kharg Island, the country’s main crude export hub, appeared not to damage key energy infrastructure. Despite this, supply tightness remains the dominant theme, with the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz posing the biggest threat to global energy flows. Only a reopening of the chokepoint is likely to prevent a deeper disruption to supplies of LNG, crude oil, refined fuel products, aluminium and other commodities. Crude futures have surged more than 40% this month, reflecting the scale of the supply shock following the effective shutdown of the Strait and Iran’s retaliatory attacks across the region.

Currencies

The US dollar remains the safe haven currency, but was mixed in Monday’s Asian hours on a modest comeback attempt in global risk sentiment. The euro is weak across the board, with EURUSD hitting a low of 1.1411 Friday, its lowest since the 1.1392 low of August of last year, only recovering toward 1.1450 in Asian trading hours Monday before dipping back lower.
AUDUSD fared somewhat better, managing to scratch back above 0.7000 and to 0.7015+ after closing Friday at 0.6981 – this ahead of a much anticipated RBA meeting Tuesday for which another 25-basis point rate hike is about two-thirds priced into the market.
The Japanese yen rebounded in the afternoon in Tokyo after significant rhetorical intervention from Japan’s Finance Minister, who said that authorities are ready to respond to currency market movements with bold steps if necessary. This reinforces the sense that 160.00 is a key line in the sand for USDJPY. The pair topped out 159.75 both Friday and in early trading Monday, trading 159.30 later in Monday’s session.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Advanced orders Europe Employment United Kingdom European Union (EU) XAUUSD USD EURUSD USDJPY Energy Sector Technology S P 500 index Quick Take Weekly Newsletter

Stunning market complacency as oil still not flowing through Hormuz

Fri, 13 Mar 2026 10:11:00 Z

Let's hope the market is right not to panic.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.

Links:

Anas Alhajji discussing important current state of affairs with the war and oil/gas supply situation.
A discussion group on the "US Dollar Endgame" with Michael Every, Brent Johnson, Izabella Kaminska and others.

Questions and comments, please!

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

Adobe’s quarter was solid. The AI debate got louder anyway

Fri, 13 Mar 2026 10:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Adobe delivered a better-than-feared quarter, with revenue, earnings and guidance all showing that the core business remains healthy.
The real market shock was not the numbers. It was the announcement that long-time CEO Shantanu Narayen will step down.
That makes Adobe more than an earnings story. It is a useful case study for the wider software-as-a-service industry.

A good quarter with very bad timing

Sometimes a company does the hard part, then gets judged for something else entirely. That was Adobe this quarter. The results were strong enough to calm at least some fears. Revenue rose 12% to USD 6.4 billion, adjusted earnings came in above expectations, subscription revenue grew 13%, and management reaffirmed full-year targets. On a normal day, that would have been the headline.

Source: Bloomberg consensus estimates and Saxo Bank analysis. Chart generated using AskBloombergAI.

Instead, the bigger story was the boardroom. Adobe said Shantanu Narayen will step down as chief executive once a successor is appointed. For a company already under pressure from investor doubts about artificial intelligence disruption, the timing mattered. The quarter suggested resilience. The leadership change suggested that resilience alone may no longer be enough.

The quarter said stability. The market heard uncertainty

The first important point is simple. Adobe did not report a broken business. It reported a business still growing at scale.

That matters because the market has spent the past year treating Adobe as if generative AI had already kicked a hole through its moat. Yet the latest numbers do not show collapse. They show a company that is still converting a huge installed base into recurring revenue, still producing strong operating income, and still guiding with confidence. Second-quarter revenue guidance of USD 6.43 billion to USD 6.48 billion roughly matched to slightly exceeded consensus, while adjusted earnings guidance came in above expectations (according to data compiled by Bloomberg). Remaining performance obligations also grew 13%, which is not the profile of a franchise falling apart.

The problem is that Adobe no longer gets judged only on classic software metrics. It gets judged on future control. Investors want proof that Adobe will not simply survive AI, but shape it. That is a much harder standard. A steady quarter can help, but it cannot settle that debate, especially when the CEO exit suddenly raises new questions about strategic continuity, capital allocation and the pace of innovation. In other words, the numbers were decent. The narrative was not.

What Adobe says about the wider SaaS and AI story

Adobe is useful because it sits in the middle of the SaaS AI argument. It is not a pure AI startup. It is not a legacy vendor asleep at the wheel either. It is a high-quality incumbent trying to protect a large franchise while adapting fast enough to a market that now moves at prompt speed.

That is the broader lesson for software investors. AI disruption does not always show up first as collapsing revenue. Often it shows up earlier as a change in market trust. Investors start asking awkward questions. Will this product remain essential if AI can do part of the task for free or nearly free? Will customers still pay per seat, or shift toward usage and outcomes? Does the company own a workflow, or just a feature that can be copied? Can it monetize AI before AI compresses pricing?

Adobe’s quarter gave a partial answer. Its AI-first annual recurring revenue more than tripled year over year. That is encouraging. It suggests Adobe is not standing still and that customers are paying for at least some of the new AI capabilities. The company also kept highlighting the advantage of commercially safe content generation, which matters for enterprise users that do not want copyright headaches landing in legal inboxes on a Friday afternoon.

Still, the scale question remains. Fast AI growth from a smaller base is good, but investors want to see whether AI revenue becomes material enough to offset the fear that creative tools themselves are being gradually commoditized. That is why this quarter matters beyond Adobe. Across SaaS, the winners may be the firms that do not just add AI, but use it to deepen workflows, protect pricing, reduce churn and widen the distance between “helpful tool” and “mission-critical platform.”

In this market, investors should spend less time counting AI product launches and more time asking a tougher question: which companies truly own the workflow, control trusted data, retain pricing power, and still enjoy durable recurring revenue? For a more structured way to think about that question, see our shortlist on SaaS disruption risk.

Adobe’s perfect storm over the past year

Adobe has been hit by a near textbook perfect storm. First came the fear that generative AI would make content creation easier outside the traditional software stack. Then came competition from AI-native tools, which made investors question whether premium creative software would remain as sticky as before. Then came a market mood that turned impatient with large software firms unless they could show clear AI monetization, not just polished demos and upbeat adjectives.

Now comes the fourth part of the storm: leadership transition.

That does not mean Adobe is in crisis. But it does mean the company lost the luxury of being judged only on execution. Narayen led one of software’s great business model transitions, moving Adobe successfully into recurring subscriptions and overseeing extraordinary long-term growth. The issue now is not his legacy. It is the next chapter. Investors want to know whether the next leader will push harder, move faster, and redefine Adobe’s role before the market does it for them.

Risks: what could still go wrong

The main risk is not that Adobe suddenly stops making money. It is that AI changes customer expectations faster than Adobe changes its business model. If creation becomes cheaper, easier and more automated, then premium pricing has to be defended with workflow depth, trust, integration and enterprise reliability.

There is also an execution risk around the CEO handover. Leadership changes can be healthy, but they can also create a period of strategic fog. That matters in a market where speed is often mistaken for wisdom, but where moving too slowly is still worse.

The quarter passed, the test got harder

Adobe’s quarter was a reminder that strong businesses do not stop being strong just because markets become anxious. Revenue grew, subscription trends held up, cash flow stayed robust, and AI monetization moved in the right direction. On the surface, that should have been reassuring. But Adobe no longer lives in a surface-level market. It lives in a market that wants proof of future relevance, not just present competence.

That is why the CEO news stole the show. Investors were not really reacting to one quarter. They were reacting to the fear that software’s old rules may not fully apply in the AI era. Adobe is still standing, and standing quite solidly. But the next chapter matters more than the last report. A good quarter can buy time. It cannot buy conviction. In SaaS today, that is the real product under review.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles Quarterly earnings

Gold update: Gold pauses above USD 5,000 as energy shock clouds the global outlook

Fri, 13 Mar 2026 09:36:00 Z

Gold is holding above USD 5,000 as markets navigate a major energy supply shock that is raising inflation risks while threatening global growth. Despite short-term headwinds from higher yields and a stronger dollar, geopolitical tensions and fiscal uncertainty continue to support the longer-term outlook for precious metals.

Gold pauses above USD 5,000 as energy shock clouds the global outlook

Key Points:

Gold remains above USD 5,000, with prices consolidating as markets weigh geopolitical tension and a worsening global growth outlook.
The disruption to Persian Gulf energy flows has lifted oil and gas prices, increasing the risk of a stagflationary backdrop.
Short-term pressure on gold has come from a firmer US dollar and reduced expectations for US rate cuts this year.
The broader outlook for precious metals remains supportive, with geopolitical risk, fiscal concerns and safe-haven demand continuing to underpin sentiment.

Gold has struggled somewhat in recent weeks even as dark clouds gather over the Middle East and the outlook for the global economy becomes increasingly uncertain. Prices continue to hold comfortably above USD 5,000, yet the lack of a stronger bid in the face of rising geopolitical tension has raised questions among investors.

The current market backdrop is dominated by one of the most significant disruptions to global energy flows in decades. The interruption of crude, gas and refined fuel supplies from the Persian Gulf has triggered sharp gains across several commodities—from oil and natural gas to diesel, LNG and fertilizers. Such moves increase the risk of a renewed inflation shock while simultaneously threatening global growth, creating the classic ingredients for a stagflationary environment.

In this context, gold’s muted response may appear counterintuitive. However, the explanation partly lies in the metal’s role as one of the most liquid markets in the commodity complex. During periods of elevated uncertainty, investors often seek to raise liquidity, and gold frequently becomes a source of funds to meet margin calls or rebalance portfolios. This dynamic has contributed to the recent sideways price action.

At the same time, the short-term interest rate market has adjusted expectations, effectively pricing out the prospect of US rate cuts in 2026. Combined with a firmer US dollar, this shift has created an additional headwind for gold in the near term. Higher real yields tend to reduce the relative appeal of non-yielding assets, particularly when markets interpret rising commodity prices as an inflation risk that could prompt tighter monetary policy.

We believe this interpretation risks overlooking the nature of the current shock. The surge in energy prices is primarily the result of a supply disruption rather than a demand-driven boom. Historically, supply shocks carry very different macroeconomic implications. Instead of signalling an overheating economy that requires higher interest rates, they often act as a tax on growth by raising production costs and reducing consumer purchasing power.

If sustained, an energy shock of the current magnitude could slow activity across energy-intensive economies, including the United States and Europe. In such a scenario, the Federal Reserve may eventually face a difficult policy trade-off. While higher energy costs could lift headline inflation, weakening economic momentum could simultaneously push policymakers toward supporting growth rather than maintaining restrictive financial conditions.

This is why we believe the market’s assumption that the Federal Reserve will avoid cutting rates may ultimately prove premature. Should economic momentum weaken materially, the policy focus could shift toward stabilising growth rather than strictly fighting inflation generated by supply constraints.

Importantly, the structural reasons behind the strong investor demand for gold in recent years have not disappeared. If anything, they have arguably strengthened. Rising geopolitical tensions continue to support demand for safe-haven assets, while persistent fiscal deficits in several major economies—most notably the United States—remain a long-term concern for investors focused on currency stability and purchasing power.

Central bank demand, which has been a major pillar of the gold market over the past several years, may moderate somewhat as prices rise. With gold’s share of total reserve portfolios increasing relative to traditional assets such as government bonds, some central banks may slow the pace of purchases. However, the broader strategic motivation—diversification away from currencies and geopolitical risk—remains firmly in place.

Against this backdrop, we maintain a constructive outlook for the precious metals sector. While short-term volatility and liquidity-driven selling may continue to produce periods of consolidation, the broader macro environment remains supportive. Continued geopolitical tension, fiscal uncertainty and the risk of a stagflationary backdrop provide a favourable setting for hard assets.

We therefore maintain our positive outlook for gold and continue to see potential for prices to reach USD 6,000 in the coming quarters. Should this scenario unfold, silver could also extend its gains and potentially revisit USD 100. Beyond that level, however, the market may begin to encounter headwinds as elevated prices risk curbing industrial demand while simultaneously encouraging additional supply from recycled scrap.

Spot gold with technical retracement levels - Source: Saxo

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22 Oct 2025: Gold and silver correction to test the markets true strength
22 Oct 2025: Gold and Silver reset What it means for long-term investors in miners
21 Oct 2025: Crude oil Short-term surplus meets long-term supply risk
20 Oct 2025: Commodities: Flying blind as US shutdown halts COT reporting
20 Oct 2025: Precious metals pause after record highs
10 Oct 2025: Commodities weekly Debasement fears the latest focus fuelling demand
8 Oct 2025: Gold powers through USD 4000 as investors question the old order
3 Oct 2025: Commodities Weekly Shutdown risks boost demand for hard assets
1 Oct 2025: Grain markets pressured by harvest and rising stocks

Educational resources:
A short guide to trading crude oil
The basics of trading wheat online
A short guide to trading gold
A short guide to trading copper
A short guide to trading silver
Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?

Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

More from the author
Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on Twitter and BlueSky social media platforms

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Commodities Inflation Gold Silver Platinum Copper

Market Quick Take - 13 March 2026

Fri, 13 Mar 2026 07:34:00 Z

Market Quick Take – 13 March 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

Equities: Global stocks fell as $100 oil hurt sentiment, with the U.S. and Europe weaker while Asia stayed cautious into Friday.
Volatility: Iran conflict, oil above $95–$100, VIX elevated near 27, inflation data ahead of FOMC
Digital Assets: Bitcoin above $71k, altcoins firmer, regulatory optimism supports sentiment
Fixed Income: US treasury yields continue to rise, as did Japan’s JGB yields Friday
Currencies: The US dollar remains a safe haven as it set new local highs against the EUR and JPY.
Commodities: Gold softened Thursday – concern for CB sales to fund oil purchases?
Macro events: Canada Feb. Employment Data, US Jan. PCE Inflation, US Mar. University of Michigan Sentiment

Macro headlines

Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei pledged to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and threatened further conflict escalation. President Trump prioritized stopping Iran's nuclear ambitions over oil costs. The blockade has halted 20% of global oil trade, forcing GCC production cuts, although some 30% of Hormuz Strait normal flow rates could be rerouted through Saudi and UAE pipelines, with Saudi Arabia saying its pipeline could hit full capacity in coming days. The IEA labelled the disruption historic, prompting a 400 million barrel release from reserves.
The US trade deficit fell to $54.5 billion in January 2026, from December's $72.9 billion, outpacing the forecast of $66.6 billion. Exports increased 5.5% to $302.1 billion, driven by gold, metals, and computers, while pharmaceuticals fell. Imports decreased 0.7% to $356.6 billion, with drops in pharmaceuticals and vehicles, but rose for computers and telecom equipment.
US housing starts rose 7.2% to an annualized 1.487 million rate, exceeding forecasts and marking three months of growth. Multi-family starts surged 29.1%, while single-family starts fell 2.8%. Construction increased in the South and Northeast, but declined in the West and Midwest.
Canada's trade deficit rose to C$3.6 billion in January 2026 from C$1.3 billion in December. Exports fell 4.7%, driven by drops in vehicles and aircraft, partially offset by higher energy exports. Imports declined 1.1%, mainly due to decreases in vehicles and electronics. The US surplus narrowed to C$5.4 billion, and the deficit with other countries expanded to C$9.0 billion.
US initial jobless claims fell 1,000 to 213,000 in early March, below expectations. Continuing claims fell by 21,000 to 1,850,000, indicating a stable labour market. Federal employee claims rose by 88 to 617, amid government shutdown concerns

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1000 – Eurozone Jan. Industrial Production
1230 – Canada Feb. Employment Data
1230 – US Jan. PCE Inflation
1230 – US Jan. Preliminary Durable Goods Orders
1400 – US Mar. Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment

Earnings this week

Today: PKO Bank

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 fell 1.5% to 6,672.58, the Dow Jones dropped 1.6% to 46,677.85, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.8% to 22,311.98 as fresh tanker attacks and Iran’s vow to keep the Strait of Hormuz shut pushed Brent back to $100 and revived inflation fears. Financials took the hit, with Morgan Stanley down 4.1% after limiting redemptions at one private-credit fund and JPMorgan off 1.6% after marking down some private-credit loans. There were still a few odd winners in the rubble: Dow rose 9.3% and LyondellBasell gained 10.3% after a Citigroup upgrade tied to export opportunities, while Adobe fell almost 8% after hours after announcing a CEO transition even though quarterly results beat estimates.
Europe: Europe stayed on the defensive, with the STOXX 600 down 0.6%, the Euro STOXX 50 lower by about 0.8%, and the FTSE 100 off 0.5% as oil’s return to $100 lifted inflation fears and pushed markets to price a European Central Bank rate hike by July. Banks were the weak spot, with the regional banking sector down 3.5% and UK banks down 4.8% as investors worried that higher energy costs could squeeze growth and credit quality. Not everything went south: Leonardo rose 5.7% on stronger growth targets, Daimler Truck added 4.1% on a steady margin outlook, and Zalando jumped 9.5% on firmer profit guidance. Markets now watch oil, bond yields and how fast rate-cut hopes keep evaporating.
Asia: Asia stayed under pressure on Friday, with the Nikkei 225 down 1.1%, the Kospi off 1.3%, the Hang Seng down 0.5% and Shanghai slipping 0.2% as oil hovered near $100, the dollar strengthened and investors trimmed rate-cut hopes again. Japan’s Honda dropped 6.7% after warning of its first annual loss in nearly 70 years as a listed company, driven by heavy electric-vehicle restructuring costs and weakness in China. In Hong Kong, financial names also remained nervous after the city’s insider-trading probe, with Guotai Junan International down 4.2% and Citic’s Hong Kong shares off 1.7% in the prior session. Next week’s central-bank meetings now matter even more, because holding rates steady may prove easier than calming oil markets.

Volatility

Volatility remains elevated as markets continue to digest the ongoing U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran, now entering its third week. Energy markets remain the key transmission channel into broader financial markets: Brent crude is still trading around $100 and WTI near $95, levels that keep inflation concerns alive and complicate expectations for interest-rate cuts. Reflecting that uncertainty, the VIX closed at 27.29 on Thursday, while shorter-term measures such as VIX1D (24.21) and VIX9D (28.98) remain elevated, showing investors are still paying up for near-term protection rather than assuming volatility will fade quickly.
Today’s macro calendar could add another layer of uncertainty. Markets will focus on Core PCE inflation, durable goods orders, and JOLTS job openings, all of which may influence expectations ahead of next week’s 17–18 March FOMC meeting. If inflation data remains firm while energy prices stay elevated, volatility could persist as investors reassess the outlook for monetary policy.
Based on current SPX options pricing, the market is implying an expected move of roughly ±75 points for today’s expiry.
Looking at the options chain for today’s expiry, there is a mild downside skew, with puts around the current index level still priced slightly richer than equivalent calls. That pattern suggests investors remain cautious and continue to prioritize portfolio protection.

Digital Assets

Digital assets are showing relative resilience despite weaker equity markets and persistent geopolitical risk. Bitcoin is trading around $71,400, Ethereum near $2,100, Solana around $88.7, and XRP close to $1.42, with most major cryptocurrencies modestly higher on the day. The gains come as investors weigh geopolitical uncertainty against improving sentiment around U.S. crypto regulation. Earlier this week, the SEC and CFTC signaled closer cooperation on a joint regulatory framework for digital assets, a development that investors hope could provide clearer rules for the industry and encourage broader institutional participation.
ETF activity remains central to the crypto market narrative. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) is trading around $39.95, while the iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) is near $15.63, continuing to act as key gateways for institutional exposure to bitcoin and ether. At the same time, crypto-linked equities show mixed performance: Coinbase (COIN) and MicroStrategy (MSTR) are slightly lower, while some bitcoin miners such as MARA are holding up better alongside the underlying crypto market. Overall, the crypto market appears to be stabilizing after recent volatility, but sentiment remains sensitive to macro developments such as energy prices, inflation expectations, and shifts in global risk appetite.

Fixed Income

US Treasury yields rose sharply Thursday on the fresh surge in energy prices, which are driving inflation concerns. The benchmark 2-year yield cleared the range since August above 3.67%, trading early Friday some eight basis points higher from Wednesday’s close at above 3.73% as the market has removed even more forward easing expectations from the Fed for 2026 over the last two days – now pricing less than a full cut for the balance of the year. The benchmark 10-year treasury yield closed three basis points higher at above 4.26%, with the smaller rise Thursday than at the front end of the treasury yield curve perhaps on anticipation that higher oil prices will slow forward growth. The range high since August is 4.307%.
Japan’s government bond yields rose and the yield curve steepened yesterday on the rise in energy prices, with the benchmark 2-year JGB yield rising two basis points Friday to a high since mid-February at nearly 1.29%, while the benchmark 10-year JGB yield rose nearly six basis points to just below 2.25%, near one-month high.
European bonds have seen a sharp repricing lower this week on anticipation that the ECB will respond to the inflation risks from higher energy prices with a rate hike as soon as June of this year. The benchmark German 2-year bund closed Thursday at 2.42%, its highest daily close since August of 2024 and up about 40 basis points from before the Iran War broke out.

Commodities

Oil remains the dominant force across commodity markets and a key driver of global risk sentiment, with May Brent closing above USD 100 per barrel Thursday for the first time since the Iran War broke out (even if there was a spike to nearly USD 120 per barrel briefly in early hours this Monday) and remaining near that level in Friday’s Asian trading hours as the market nervously awaits news that the Hormuz Strait, through which about 25% of global oil exports flow – and some Asian countries like Japan predominantly reliant on crude oil from the region. The US April WTI contract trades about five dollars lower at USD 95.30, with May WTI, which traders are now rolling into as the April contract liquidity dries up, trading near 94.20.
Precious metals dipped Thursday, with gold once again failing to sustain the price action above the USD 5,200 level and falling below 5,100. The question may arise at some point whether countries desperate for oil supplies could use central bank resources, including gold sales, to fund purchases.

Currencies

The US dollar remains the safe haven currency, on general weak risk sentiment Thursday, but also as the US relies very little on oil or gas supplies that normally flow through the Hormuz Strait. EURUSD dipped below 1.1500 in Asian trading hours Friday for the first time since November and is close to challenging the 1.1469 low from that month.
USDJPY slipped above 159.00 for the first time for this cycle adding to gains Friday in Asia as it traded as high as 159.69, the highest level since the summer of 2024 as the market nervously eyes the 160.00 level and whether this could bring Japanese official intervention to prevent further JPY weakness. The JPY firmed in non-USD crosses like EURJPY and GBPJPY.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Advanced orders Europe Employment United Kingdom European Union (EU) XAUUSD USD EURUSD USDJPY Energy Sector Technology S P 500 index Quick Take Weekly Newsletter

Asia Market Quick Take – 13 March, 2026

Fri, 13 Mar 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 13 March, 2026

Key points:

Macro: Iran pledges to keep Straits of Hormuz closed and threatens escalations
Equities: Adobe falls 18% after CEO of 18 years steps down
FX: EURUSD down to 1.1515, third straight drop on broad USD strength
Commodities: Oil extends gains after highest close since Aug 2022 amid extreme volatility
Fixed income: Treasuries bear‑flattened sharply, with 19bp of easing priced by December

------------------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei pledged to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and threatened further conflict escalation. President Trump prioritized stopping Iran's nuclear ambitions over oil costs. The blockade halted 20% of global oil trade, forcing GCC production cuts. The IEA labeled the disruption historic, prompting a 400 million barrel release from reserves.
The US trade deficit reduced to $54.5 billion in January 2026, from December's $72.9 billion, outpacing the forecast of $66.6 billion. Exports increased 5.5% to $302.1 billion, driven by gold, metals, and computers, while pharmaceuticals fell. Imports decreased 0.7% to $356.6 billion, with drops in pharmaceuticals and vehicles, but rose for computers and telecom equipment.
US housing starts rose 7.2% to 1.487 million, exceeding forecasts and marking three months of growth. Multi-family starts surged 29.1%, while single-family starts fell 2.8%. Construction increased in the South and Northeast, but declined in the West and Midwest.
Canada's trade deficit increased to C$3.6 billion in January 2026 from C$1.3 billion in December. Exports fell 4.7%, driven by drops in vehicles and aircraft, partially offset by higher energy exports. Imports declined 1.1%, mainly due to decreases in vehicles and electronics. The US surplus narrowed to C$5.4 billion, and the deficit with other countries expanded to C$9.0 billion.
US initial jobless claims decreased by 1,000 to 213,000 in early March, below expectations. Continuing claims fell by 21,000 to 1,850,000, indicating a stable labor market. Federal employee claims rose by 88 to 617, amid government shutdown concerns.

Equities:

US - US stocks fell sharply Thursday, with the S&P 500 and Dow down 1.5% and the Nasdaq off 1.7%, as escalating conflict in the Persian Gulf pushed crude toward $100 a barrel. Investors weighed rising energy costs and the absence of a path to resolving the war after new Iranian supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei insisted the Strait of Hormuz remain closed. Brent crude topped $100 despite a record 400‑million‑barrel emergency release by the IEA. Financials lagged, with Morgan Stanley sliding 4.1%. In after hours, Adobe fell 8% after its CEO Shantanu steps down after 18 years at the firm despite reporting earnings that topped estimates.
EU - TheEurozone’s STOXX 50 dropped 0.9% and the STOXX 600 slipped 0.7%. Tensions spiked after new Iranian supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, raising the risk of prolonged energy supply disruptions. Bond yields jumped on expectations of further ECB tightening, pressuring banks: UniCredit and BNP Paribas fell nearly 4%, while Deutsche Bank slid 5.3% after disclosing$30 billion in private‑credit exposure. Safran and Airbus lost over 2%.HK - Hang Seng fell 0.7% to 25,717 on Thursday, marking a second day of losses as U.S. equity futures tumbled and Iran escalated attacks on regional oil and transport hubs, warning that crude could reach $200 a barrel. Hong Kong authorities launched a major insider‑trading probe into two brokerages and a hedge fund, arresting eight people in their biggest industry crackdown in years. All sectors declined, with property and financials weakest. Cathay Pacific slid 1.6% on plans to raise fuel surcharges, while Swire Properties fell 1.2% after its CFO resigned. Other notable losers included Knowledge Atlas,NongfuSpring, and Henderson Land.

Earnings this week:

Friday: VEON, Century Casinos, Acurx Pharmaceuticals

FX:

The dollar is poised for its strongest close in nearly two months as oil surges on fears the Strait of Hormuz will stay shut and the Middle East war drags on.
USDJPY rose 0.3% to a session high of 159.43, taking the yen beyond 159 as options markets and strategists see a high threshold for Japanese intervention.
EURUSD fell 0.5% to 1.1515 for a third straight decline, while GBPUSD dropped 0.5% to 1.3344. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said his office will launch a Section 301 probe into more than a dozen economies, including China and the EU, over alleged excess manufacturing capacity. Goldman Sachs pushed its call for the next BOE rate cut to July from April, citing the energy shock linked to the Iran war.
USDCAD rose 0.2% to 1.3626; AUDUSD fell 1% to 0.7081, holding overnight losses near 0.7078 after a 1.1% New York drop; NZDUSD slid 1% to 0.5855. The offshore yuan weakened for the first time in five days and the onshore yuan fell for a third time this week as the dollar advanced.

Commodities:

Oil extended gains from its highest close since August 2022 after one of the most volatile weeks in years, as investors braced for further upheaval with Iran vowing to keep the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut; WTI traded near $97 after a roughly 10% surge on Thursday, while Brent settled above $100. In his first public comments since succeeding his father, Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said the Islamic Republic would seek to ensure the vital waterway for crude and natural gas remains closed.
Gold steadied near $5,090 an ounce after a two-day drop of over 2% as traders weighed a firmer US dollar and surging oil almost two weeks into the Middle East war, with defiant remarks from US President Donald Trump and Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, on day 13 amid a Strait of Hormuz blockade that has triggered the oil market’s biggest disruption on record.

Fixed income:

US Treasuries saw a sharp bear‑flattening as surging oil prompted traders to unwind front‑end Fed rate‑cut premia, while solid demand at the $22bn 30‑year auction and flattener flows tightened the curve and capped long yields, with a hawkish shift in Fed expectations pushing rates volatility to its highest since August and Fed‑dated OIS now pricing just 19bp of easing by December—about 75% odds of a single 25bp cut.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

How to improve the yield on long-term IWDA holdings

Thu, 12 Mar 2026 14:00:00 Z

Many investors hold IWDA as a long-term core position - but few realise it can also generate additional income. This article explains how IWDA mini-options allow investors to write covered calls on smaller ETF positions, including how the potential yield, risks, and trade-offs work in practice.

How to improve the yield on long-term IWDA holdings

The iShares Core MSCI World UCITS ETF (IWDA) is one of the most widely used building blocks in long‑term portfolios. Many investors buy the ETF regularly and hold it for years as a simple way to gain exposure to global equity markets.

For most of that time, the strategy has been straightforward: buy the ETF, hold it, and allow global equity markets to compound over time.

However, a recent development on Euronext Amsterdam introduces a new possibility for some investors. Mini‑options on IWDA now allow option strategies to be applied in much smaller increments than before. In practical terms, this means investors can potentially generate option premium from part of an existing IWDA position without needing a large allocation of ETF units.

For long‑term investors who are comfortable with options, this may offer an additional way to improve the yield of a portfolio holding. At the same time, it is important to understand the trade‑offs involved. The strategy discussed in this article is educational in nature and examples are illustrative only. Options involve risk and require careful consideration before use.

Why IWDA is often a core holding

IWDA is widely used by investors seeking diversified exposure to global developed equity markets through a single ETF. Source: © Saxo

The iShares Core MSCI World UCITS ETF tracks the MSCI World Index, which represents large and mid‑capitalisation companies across developed markets. The index includes companies from North America, Europe and Asia‑Pacific, providing broad diversification through a single instrument.

Because of this diversification, many investors treat IWDA as a long‑term portfolio foundation. Contributions are often made gradually through regular investing plans, and the ETF is typically held for many years.

In such portfolios, the objective is usually straightforward: participate in global economic growth over time. Investors may focus less on short‑term market fluctuations and more on long‑term compounding.

Yet even within long‑term portfolios, some investors eventually ask a practical question. If an ETF position is intended to be held for years, could it also generate additional income along the way?

Listed options provide one possible approach.

What has changed: mini‑options on IWDA

Options on ETFs are not new. Covered call strategies have been used for decades by investors seeking to generate income from existing holdings.

Traditionally, however, listed options represent 100 units of the underlying asset. This means that a standard option contract on IWDA corresponds to 100 ETF units.

For many investors, that contract size has been a practical barrier. Someone holding 30 or 40 ETF units, for example, simply could not use the strategy because they did not own enough units to cover the contract.

Mini‑options change that dynamic.

On Euronext Amsterdam, IWDA options are now also available with a smaller contract size. Each mini‑option represents 10 ETF units rather than the traditional 100.

The strategy itself has not changed. What has changed is the scale at which it can be applied.

This smaller contract size allows investors to manage exposure in much finer increments, which may make the strategy more practical for a wider range of portfolios.

A practical example of why size matters

Consider a long‑term investor who has gradually accumulated 40 units of IWDA through regular investments.

Under the traditional option structure, this investor would not have been able to sell a covered call because the minimum contract size was 100 units.

With mini‑options, the same investor could potentially sell a call option on 10 units, 20 units, 30 units, or the entire 40‑unit position. In other words, the strategy can be tested on a small portion of the holding rather than the entire allocation.

At the other end of the spectrum, larger investors may also benefit from the flexibility.

Imagine a portfolio holding 1,500 units of IWDA. Instead of covering the position in large blocks of 100 units, mini‑options allow the investor to adjust exposure more precisely. Strike prices can be staggered, expiries can be spread across different dates, and only part of the position can be covered at any given time.

For both smaller and larger investors, the change in contract size simply allows more flexibility in how the strategy is applied.

Understanding the covered call strategy

A covered call is one of the simplest options strategies, although it still requires an understanding of how options work.

In a covered call, an investor owns the underlying asset and sells a call option on that asset. The buyer of the option receives the right to purchase the asset at a predetermined price, known as the strike price, before the option expires.

In exchange for granting this right, the seller receives an option premium.

Because the investor already owns the ETF units, the position is described as "covered". If the option is exercised, the investor can deliver the ETF units they already hold.

The premium received from selling the option is the income component of the strategy.

An illustrative IWDA example

Mini‑options allow investors to sell calls on IWDA in increments of 10 ETF units rather than the traditional 100. Source: © SaxoTraderGo

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it's crucial to make informed decisions.

Assume the following simplified market conditions:

IWDA price: EUR 112.60
Call strike price: EUR 115
Expiry: roughly one month
Option premium: EUR 1.35 per ETF unit

One mini‑option contract represents 10 ETF units.

Premium received:
EUR 1.35 × 10 = EUR 13.50

Position value

Value of 10 IWDA units:
EUR 112.60 × 10 = EUR 1,126

Option yield

Premium relative to the ETF position:
EUR 13.50 / EUR 1,126 ≈ 1.2% for roughly one month (illustrative and can be more or less depending on market conditions)

This yield illustrates why some investors consider covered calls on long‑term holdings.

Maximum profit and maximum loss

Maximum profit

Maximum profit occurs if IWDA finishes at or above the strike price (EUR 115) at expiry.

Profit components:

Capital gain: EUR 115 − EUR 112.60 = EUR 2.40 per unit
Option premium: EUR 1.35 per unit

Total maximum profit per unit:
EUR 2.40 + EUR 1.35 = EUR 3.75 per unit

For the 10‑unit position:
EUR 3.75 × 10 = EUR 37.50 maximum profit

Relative to the EUR 1,126 position value, this equals roughly:
3.3% maximum return for the one‑month example.

Maximum loss

The downside risk remains largely the same as owning the ETF.

If IWDA were to fall to zero (a theoretical worst case, which is unlikely to happen with a world-etf), the loss would be the value of the ETF minus the premium received.

Loss per unit:
EUR 112.60 − EUR 1.35 = EUR 111.25

For the 10‑unit position:
EUR 111.25 × 10 = EUR 1,112.50 maximum loss.

In other words, the option premium provides only a small buffer against declines.

Possible outcomes at expiry

If IWDA remains below EUR 115 until expiry, the option may expire worthless. In that case, the investor keeps the premium and continues to hold the ETF units.
Some investors then repeat the strategy by selling a new call option with a later expiry.

If IWDA rises above EUR 115, the option holder may exercise the option. This means the investor may be required to sell the covered ETF units at EUR 115.
In that scenario, the investor keeps the premium but does not benefit from price gains above the strike price on the covered portion of the position.

If IWDA declines instead, the premium received provides a small buffer against losses. However, the investor still bears the downside risk of owning the ETF.
This is an important point: selling covered calls generates income, but it does not protect against declines in the underlying asset.

The central trade‑off

The logic of the strategy ultimately revolves around a simple exchange.

The investor receives option premium today, but in return accepts that the covered ETF units could be sold at the strike price.

If the ETF rises strongly above that level, the investor gives up some potential upside. If the ETF declines, the premium only partially offsets the loss.

For this reason, some investors view covered calls as a way to enhance income from long‑term holdings rather than as a strategy designed to outperform rising markets.

Practical considerations before using the strategy

Options are complex financial instruments and require careful evaluation before use.

Investors considering covered calls should think about several practical factors, including the possibility of early assignment, the liquidity of the option market, bid–ask spreads, trading costs and the tax treatment of option premiums.

Perhaps most importantly, an investor should be comfortable with the idea of selling the ETF units at the chosen strike price if the option is exercised.

If selling the ETF at that price would be undesirable, the strategy may not be appropriate.

Final thoughts

Mini‑options on IWDA do not introduce a new strategy. Covered calls have been used for decades by investors seeking to generate income from existing holdings.

What has changed is the contract size.

By allowing the strategy to be applied in 10‑unit increments, mini‑options make covered calls accessible to a broader group of IWDA investors. For some, this may offer an additional way to manage the yield of a long‑term ETF position while maintaining exposure to global equity markets.

As always, understanding both the mechanics and the trade‑offs is essential before using options in a portfolio.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.

Educational Resources
Position management for covered calls and cash-secured puts Understanding the covered call option strategy Understanding the poor mans covered call Understanding the option collar strategy Understanding the naked put option strategy How put options work Understanding the protective put option strategy Guide on long-term options for strategic portfolio management Assignment explained - 01 - what every options trader and investor should know Assignment explained - 02 - how to avoid assignment Assignment explained - 03 - how to use option assignment to your advantage Assignment explained - 04 - option assignment cheat sheet

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Netflix earnings - using a cash-secured put to set a lower entry price | 16 Jan 2026
Micron covered call - harvesting extra income after a strong rally | 13 Jan 2026
The Venezuela oil shock - Trading the reconstruction without chasing the hype | 6 Jan 2026
Nike - using earnings volatility to set a cheaper entry level | 16 Dec 2025
Oracle earnings - understanding one way long-term investors can plan an entry price | 9 Dec 2025
Cloud, debt and AI promises: the Oracle checklist before earnings | 9 Dec 2025
A more patient way to buy bitcoin - using an ETF and a cash buffer | 4 Dec 2025
Alphabets AI momentum - a simple way for shareholders to enhance their returns | 27 Nov 2025
Staying sane in noisy markets - investing through market and news volatility | 25 Nov 2025
Netflix after the stock split - how investors can set their own entry price | 20 Nov 2025
Why crypto is selling off - and what it means for risk assets | 18 Nov 2025
Protecting your core stocks - practical illustrations across five names | 14 Nov 2025
A deliberate way to prepare for potential Novo Nordisk ownership | 13 Nov 2025
Novo vs Lily | 12 Nov 2025
How investors are using collar strategies on some of the most-traded stocks | 10 Nov 2025
How to protect your stocks with options when markets get shaky | 7 Nov 2025
A smarter way to start investing in Rheinmetall - with more control and lower risk | 4 Nov 2025
Exploring a conservative way to buy Amazon shares at a lower level | 28 Oct 2025
What long-term Microsoft investors can do with short-term volatility | 27 Oct 2025
How investors can turn Alphabets volatility into opportunity | 23 Oct 2025
Cash-secured puts on Tesla - how expiry choice shapes risk and reward | 20 Oct 2025
How long-term investors can use ASML mini options ahead of earnings | 10 Oct 2025
Intel just jumped on Nvidias vote of confidence What now | 19 Sep 2025
Oracle - how long-term investors can earn extra income after the stocks big move | 18 Sep 2025
A lower-cost alternative to generate income on Nike - the poor man covered call | 8 Sep 2025
What long-term investors can do with Nike options ahead of earnings | 4 Sep 2025
Earnings around the corner - how to use a cash-secured put to set your Alibaba buy price | 13 Aug 2025
Disney - earn while you wait for your ideal entry price | 11 Aug 2025
An income idea for Palantir shareholders | 1 Aug 2025
Collect monthly income from UBS - a beginners guide to covered calls | 31 Jul 2025
How Amazon shareholders can collect extra income before earnings | 29 Jul 2025
After the drop - two smarter ways to invest in ASML today | 18 Jul 2025
The overlooked strategy turning cash into consistent income | 11 Jul 2025
Getting paid to buy Novo Nordisk - earn income while waiting for a better price | 8 Jul 2025
Get paid to wait - how to earn income while preparing to buy Palantir shares | 30 Jun 2025
There s another way to buy SAP - one that pays you | 27 Jun 2025
How to get paid for your patience - Using cash-secured puts to invest in Intel 23 Jun 2025
How to turn your Intel shares into an income machine - even in a tough market | 20 Jun 2025
Already own Logitech - or want to - There is a smarter way to invest either way
How long-term investors can earn income or buy Alibaba at a discount with options
Earning extra income and buying at a discount - Covered calls and cash-secured puts on Palantir
How to earn extra Income from your Nestle shares - without taking on unnecessary risk
How to use cash-secured puts to buy UBS stock - or earn income while you wait
Learn how to generate income from ASML shares using MINI-options
Learn how you can earn income or buy Bitcoin at a discount
How a covered call on AMD generates extra income for long-term investors
Learn how you can earn income or buy Bitcoin-exposure at a discount

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Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Options Thought Starters Investing with options Highlighted articles Listed Options Income investor – Options What are your options Learn about options Options education Getting Started with Options Income and yield