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Asia Market Quick Take – 05 June, 2026

Fri, 05 Jun 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 5 June, 2026

Key points:

Macro: Hezbollah rejects US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon
Equities: Dow gains 1.7% to close at all time high,
FX: USDJPY at 160 previous intervention level
Commodities: Oil falls due to hopes of Middle East resolution
Fixed income: Treasury yield fell across the curve

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

Trump is reportedly reluctant to resume full-scale war with Iran and would end the truce only if Tehran kills US troops. US–Iran talks show little progress, hindered by Israel’s operations in Lebanon.
Hezbollah rejected a US-mediated Israel–Lebanon ceasefire, though Trump says the group has approached the White House about ending hostilities.
US initial jobless claims rose 13,000 to 225,000 in the week ending May 30, above the 215,000 consensus, partly reflecting Memorial Day volatility, while continuing claims slipped 8,000 to 1.777 million.
Japan’s average cash earnings rose 3.5% year-on-year in April, the fastest pace since December 2024 and 52nd straight gain, with wages up across all major sectors. Inflation-adjusted real wages increased 1.9%, extending their rise to four months.
US nonfarm unit labor costs rose 1.8% in Q1, down from 2.1% and below the 2.3% estimate, as compensation growth slowed and productivity edged up. Manufacturing unit labor costs increased 2.2%, and year-on-year overall labor costs were up 0.5%.
US employers announced 97,006 job cuts in May, up from 83,387 in April and the highest May total since 2020. AI was the top driver, with tech leading (38,242 cuts), followed by transportation, services, and fintech. Year-to-date cuts total 397,755, 43% below last year’s federal layoff–inflated figure and roughly in line with 2024.
Eurozone retail sales fell 0.4% m/m in April after a 0.8% rise in March, with non-food and fuel down and food up. Germany and Spain saw declines, while France rose 0.3%. Year-on-year, sales were up 1%, down from 2.1% in March.

Equities:

US — The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 875 points (+1.7%) to a record close of 51,562 on Thursday, its 15th record close of 2026, led by healthcare and financials. UnitedHealth rose 5.2% after a Bank of America upgrade, while Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, American Express and Visa all gained over 3%. The S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 7,593, its 10th gain in 11 sessions. The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5% as Broadcom tumbled 12% after its AI chip revenue guidance disappointed. After hours, Nasdaq 100 futures fell a further 0.9%, Guidewire dropped 16%, and Lululemon slipped 11% after reporting Q1 EPS of $1.69, missing estimates slightly.
EU — European equities rebounded on Thursday after an initial AI-driven selloff. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.5% to 624.45, led by healthcare. The Euro Stoxx 50 gained 0.82% to 6,103. The DAX rose 0.6% to 24,945, with SAP the top gainer at +5.5%. The FTSE 100 edged up 0.27% to 10,360. Abivax surged 18% on a reassessment of clinical trial data, Remy Cointreau rose as much as 15% on strong earnings, and Maersk gained 8.3%. Pirelli fell 4.2% after Grizzly Research disclosed a short position citing governance concerns.
Asia — Asian equities are broadly lower on Friday morning, with the Kospi the standout underperformer. South Korea's Kospi opened down 3.7% and extended losses to as much as 5%, with the Korea Exchange activating a sidecar mechanism to halt program selling after KOSPI200 futures fell over 5%. SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics and SK Square are the biggest drags, tracking the US chip sector's 2.2% decline overnight. The Kosdaq fell as much as 2.9%. The Nikkei is tracking lower alongside the Kospi, while the Topix is near flat given its more diversified sector exposure. The Hang Seng closed down 379 points at 25,253 on Thursday, with mainland Chinese investors reportedly rotating out of Hong Kong stocks and back into onshore AI-related names. The STI is also softer. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is down approximately 1%.

Earnings this week:

Friday: Sectra, Mr Price Group, ABM Industries, Foschini Group

FX:

The Korean won weakened to its lowest level since 2009 against the dollar, touching 1,540.55 on Thursday, as foreign investors sold approximately $4.5 billion of local stocks amid ongoing Iran war concerns. The dollar opened at around 1,529 won on Friday morning.
The Indonesian rupiah breached 18,000 per dollar for the first time ever on Thursday, weighed down by fiscal concerns, sovereign rating downgrade risk and a domestic equity selloff.
The Japanese yen remains under pressure near 160 per dollar. Japan's Finance Minister Katayama reiterated readiness to act on FX at any time, noting that bold actions are permitted under the US-Japan FX statement. Japan's foreign reserves fell by $75.6 billion in May, suggesting the government may have tapped overseas assets to fund FX intervention.
The Chinese yuan is near 6.77 per dollar, up over 3% year-to-date, making it Asia's best-performing currency. TD Securities sees potential for further CNY appreciation if portfolio inflows into China's tech rally accelerate, with an end-year target of 6.70.
The dollar eased retracing part of Wednesday’s biggest gain since 19 May as an Israel–Lebanon ceasefire weighed on oil; Most G‑10 currencies rose while NOK and CAD lagged, and traders awaited US/Canada jobs data.
USDCAD hit 1.3925 (highest since 7 Apr) before paring;
EURSEK fell 0.2% to 10.8919 on softer-than‑expected Swedish core inflation; EURCHF slipped 0.2% to 0.9167 and USDCHF dipped 0.3% to 0.7895 after Swiss inflation undershot forecasts.

Commodities:

Oil prices fell on hopes of a Middle East diplomatic resolution following the tentative Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, though the broader backdrop remains elevated given the ongoing US-Iran conflict and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Copper is in focus ahead of the US Commerce Department's June 30 deadline to deliver an updated recommendation on import tariffs for refined copper. Citi sees copper potentially reaching $14,500/tonne in June as tariff fears fuel bullish sentiment, while the premium of US prices over global peers has widened again, prompting renewed metal flows into the US.
Commerzbank raised its year-end targets for gold to $4,800/oz and silver to $80/oz, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures and geopolitical risk from the Iran conflict. Energy analysts warn that rapid inventory drawdowns from the Strait of Hormuz closure are likely to deliver fuel price shocks, with prices across the energy complex expected to remain higher for longer.

Fixed income:

US Treasury yields fell modestly, with the 10-year yield declining 2.5bps to 4.471% and the 30-year falling 1.9bps to 4.975%, as easing oil prices and a softer risk tone supported bonds. The 30-year yield is now down nine of the past 11 trading sessions and off 20bps from its 52-week high of 5.18% hit on May 19.
Large options trades in the Treasury market this week targeted a move higher in 10-year yields, with a $15 million put position on Wednesday targeting 4.70% and a $5 million put on Thursday targeting 4.65% by end of July, signalling that some market participants are positioning for a renewed bond selloff.
JGBs edged higher in early Tokyo trade, tracking overnight Treasury gains. However, with the dollar recovering to around 160 yen, Barclays' Japan rates strategists note that expectations for a BOJ rate hike in June are resurfacing, which could limit further JGB upside.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance. The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

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Options Brief - Streak snaps, payrolls loom - 4 June 2026

Thu, 04 Jun 2026 10:30:00 Z

The S&P 500’s nine-day winning streak ended on 3 June, knocked back by higher oil, renewed US-Iran tension and a Broadcom AI-chip outlook that disappointed after the close. The index move was modest, but the options market reacted in a more telling way.

Options Brief - Streak snaps, payrolls loom - 4 June 2026

A nine-day winning streak ended on oil, geopolitics and a Broadcom AI wobble, and the front end of the volatility curve woke up first.

Renewed US-Iran fighting lifted oil and bond yields through the 3 June session while Broadcom’s AI-chip outlook disappointed after the close, ending Wall Street’s nine-session run and reintroducing event risk just as the market heads into today’s jobless claims and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls. The headline move was modest, but underneath it the volatility term structure shifted in a way that matters more to options traders than the index level itself. The full macro picture is in Saxo’s Market Quick Take – 4 June 2026.

Market snapshot

S&P 500: 7,553.68 (-0.74%), ending a nine-session winning streak
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 50,687.07 (-1.21%)
Nasdaq Composite: 26,853.98 (-0.89%)
10-year Treasury yield: 4.491% (+4.6bps), with crude near the upper end of Brent’s recent 90-100 dollar range
Market regime: Low vol bull – VIX 16.06, 20-day realised vol 9.9% (stable), S&P 500 +6.1% above its 50-day moving average

Options flow sentiment

Based on end-of-day 3 June 2026 – yesterday’s positioning, not today’s price action.

Single-name flow leaned bullish, with confirmed-opening call demand concentrated in mega-cap tech and semiconductors; were those calls dealer-sold, market makers would hedge by buying the underlying, a mildly upside-supportive bias. Index and ETF flow told a more defensive story, with broad put demand across the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and semiconductor ETFs, suggesting portfolios are adding single-name upside while keeping index-level protection on.

Options angle

The VIX closed at 16.06, up 1.84%, but the action was at the front end: the 1-day VIX jumped 29.3% to 11.48 as traders bid short-dated protection into today’s jobless claims and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls. The term structure stayed upward-sloping (1-day 11.48, 9-day 13.41, 30-day 16.06), so the event premium is sitting in the very front rather than across the curve. SPX options price a move of roughly ±0.74% through Friday, and the front expiry still shows a moderate downside skew, with puts richer than equivalent calls but well below stress levels.

Strategy insight – Calendar spread to harvest the front-end vol spike. With the 1-day VIX up nearly 29% while the 9-day and 30-day measures barely moved, the front of the term structure now carries most of the event premium. A calendar spread, selling a near-dated option and buying a longer-dated option at the same strike, profits if that elevated near-term implied volatility deflates once the data passes while the back-dated leg holds its value. Centre the strikes near spot and place the short leg in the expiry that captures payrolls. The main risk is a large directional move away from the chosen strike, which erodes both legs and can turn the structure into a loss.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.

Strategy insight – Jade lizard to monetise the put skew in a bull regime. Moderate downside skew means index puts are priced richer than comparable calls, which rewards selling that premium while the low-vol-bull backdrop keeps a constructive lean intact. A jade lizard, a short out-of-the-money put plus a short out-of-the-money call spread, collects enough credit to remove upside risk entirely while leaving a defined downside exposure. It fits a neutral-to-mildly-bullish view better than an outright short put because the call spread cheapens the position without adding tail risk above. The main risk is a sharp decline below the short put strike, where losses build much like owning the underlying from that level.

Conclusion

The low-vol bull regime is still intact, but the streak ending on oil, geopolitics and Broadcom’s AI wobble has pulled event risk into the next 48 hours. In our view the edge is in the shape of the curve, not the direction: front-end premium is rich against a still-calm back end, which favours selling near-dated event vol over chasing the move. That makes this an environment that rewards patience over conviction until payrolls clears the deck.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.

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AI winners hit a higher bar as investors ask tougher questions

Thu, 04 Jun 2026 09:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Strong earnings are not always enough when valuations already expect near-perfect execution.
Artificial intelligence is boosting demand, but also lifting spending, competition and investor scrutiny.
The key lesson is to separate business quality from share-price expectations.

Good earnings used to be the easy part. A company beat estimates, lifted guidance, smiled politely, and the share price usually did the rest. Not this week.

Broadcom, Palo Alto Networks and CrowdStrike all reported strong results around 2 and 3 June 2026. Each sits close to one of the market’s biggest themes: artificial intelligence (AI), cybersecurity and the infrastructure needed to run the digital economy. Yet their shares fell after the numbers.

That is the useful lesson for investors. The market is not saying these businesses are broken. It is saying expectations are no longer cheap. When a theme becomes popular, investors stop asking “is this growing?” and start asking “is it growing fast enough, profitably enough, and clearly enough to justify the price?” Wall Street can be a demanding dinner guest.

The bar has moved higher

Broadcom makes chips and infrastructure software. In simple terms, it supplies some of the parts that help data centres move, process and manage huge amounts of information. That matters because AI is not magic in the cloud. It is electricity, chips, networking equipment and software, stacked together at industrial scale.

Broadcom’s fiscal second-quarter results showed the strength of that demand. Revenue rose 48% to 22.2 billion USD, while AI semiconductor revenue jumped 143% to 10.8 billion USD. The company also guided for AI semiconductor revenue of 16.0 billion USD in the next quarter.

Those numbers are not small. They are “finance department needs a bigger spreadsheet” numbers. But the shares still fell sharply in extended trading after revenue slightly missed Wall Street forecasts and the company kept its longer-term AI sales target broadly unchanged. That was enough to disappoint a market that had already priced in a lot of good news.

This is the first common thread. In AI infrastructure, investors are rewarding acceleration, but they are punishing any hint that expectations have run ahead of reality. Broadcom is still growing fast. The question is whether the share price had already assumed even faster growth.

Cybersecurity is strong, but not simple

Palo Alto Networks and CrowdStrike tell the same story from a different corner of technology. Both companies help organisations protect their systems, data and users from cyberattacks. As AI spreads, this job becomes more important. More digital tools create more doors. Cybercriminals, sadly, do not take long summer holidays.

Palo Alto reported fiscal third-quarter revenue of 3.0 billion USD, up 31% from a year earlier. Its next-generation security annual recurring revenue, a measure of repeat subscription income from newer security products, rose 60% to 8.1 billion USD. Remaining performance obligation, which is contracted revenue not yet recognised, rose 36% to 18.4 billion USD.

Again, strong numbers. Yet the stock fell. Part of the issue is that acquisitions boosted growth, including CyberArk and Chronosphere. Acquisitions can make a company stronger, but they also make the picture harder to read. Investors want to know how much growth comes from the original business and how much comes from buying another one. When that line becomes less clear, the market often reaches for a discount.

CrowdStrike also beat expectations. The company reported first-quarter revenue of 1.39 billion USD and ending annual recurring revenue of 5.51 billion USD. It also raised its full-year revenue outlook. But its shares fell in extended trading after operating expenses rose 15%, partly as the company invests more in AI and product development.

That is the second common thread. AI is not only a revenue opportunity. It is also a spending cycle. Companies need engineers, data, infrastructure, security tools and new products. The market likes investment when it creates growth, but it still wants proof that the growth will turn into durable profits.

The market reaction is not as strange as it looks

For retail investors, the most important point is that share prices react to expectations, not just results. A good quarter can disappoint if investors expected a great one. A great quarter can disappoint if the valuation already assumed perfection. This is why earnings season can look irrational from the outside and painfully logical from the inside.

Broadcom shows how AI hardware expectations have become extremely high. Palo Alto shows how cybersecurity investors now care about the quality and visibility of growth, not just the size of it. CrowdStrike shows that even strong recurring revenue can be overshadowed by rising costs if investors worry about margins.

The broader industry message is clear. AI remains a powerful demand driver. Data centres need chips and networking. Companies need better security. Customers want platforms that do more with fewer tools. But the easy phase of the trade may be maturing. The next phase is about execution, pricing power and cash flow, not just attaching “AI” to a slide deck and hoping the stock market applauds.

Risks to watch

The first risk is valuation. If a company trades at a high price because investors expect rapid growth, even a small disappointment can cause a large move. The early warning sign is a stock falling on good news.

The second risk is spending discipline. AI can improve products, but it can also raise costs before it raises profits. Investors can watch whether operating margins, free cash flow and hiring trends support the growth story.

The third risk is visibility. For acquisitive companies such as Palo Alto, investors need to understand what is organic growth and what is bought growth. Both can be valuable, but they are not the same thing.

Investor playbook

Watch whether guidance rises faster than expectations, not only whether it rises.
Compare revenue growth with margin trends to see whether scale is improving.
Separate AI demand stories from AI profit stories. They are cousins, not twins.
Treat sharp post-earnings moves as information about expectations, not automatic verdicts on quality.

The price of perfection

The lesson from Broadcom, Palo Alto and CrowdStrike is not that strong technology companies suddenly became weak. It is that the market has become more selective. AI and cybersecurity remain important long-term themes, but popular themes can carry heavy expectations.

For investors, the useful question is not whether a company has exposure to AI. Many do. The better question is whether that exposure creates profitable growth at a price that already leaves room for imperfection. Good businesses can still be expensive stocks. In a hot market, even excellent earnings may need to bring their own fire extinguisher.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

The author does not hold any position in the financial instruments mentioned at the time of publication.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Theme - Artificial intelligence Artificial Intelligence

The AI boom is becoming a capital-cycle story

Tue, 02 Jun 2026 09:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Artificial intelligence is shifting from product excitement to capital discipline.
A key question for investors is which companies can fund the AI buildout while still earning attractive returns.
Companies with pricing power, scarce assets and strong balance sheets may be better placed to earn attractive returns from the AI buildout.

Artificial intelligence started as a product story. Better chatbots. Better coding tools. Better image generators. A neat party trick, until the party started asking for data centres, chips, electricity and financing.

That is the shift investors now need to understand. The artificial intelligence (AI) race is moving from “what can the product do?” to “who can pay for the factory, and who earns attractive returns from it?”

Bloomberg reported on 1 June 2026 that Alphabet is raising 80 billion USD in equity, including an investment from Berkshire Hathaway, to help fund its artificial intelligence spending plans. Broadcom reports earnings on 3 June 2026, giving investors a fresh read on AI chip and networking demand. Arm is also pushing deeper into data-centre chips, with Bloomberg reporting that the company is targeting a much larger role in the AI hardware market.

The age of cheap demos is ending

An IPO filing matters because it turns a private story into a public test. Anthropic, the company behind Claude, has been one of the most closely watched AI firms. Public investors will eventually want more than impressive user growth and clever model updates.

They will ask simple questions. How much revenue repeats? How expensive is each customer to serve? How much cash does the company burn? How concentrated are its customers? How long are its compute contracts? Compute simply means the processing power needed to train and run AI models.

This is where AI starts to resemble older capital cycles. In shipping, mining or telecoms, exciting demand can lead to massive investment. Massive investment can then lead to overcapacity, weaker pricing and lower returns. AI is not a shipyard, thankfully for everyone’s inbox. But the economic pattern still matters.

If demand keeps rising faster than supply, the owners of scarce capacity can earn attractive returns. If supply catches up too quickly, the buyer gets cheaper AI and the builder gets a headache.

Alphabet shows the other side of the story. The company owns Google Search, YouTube, Google Cloud and Gemini. It has huge cash flows, global distribution and deep technical talent. Yet even Alphabet is raising equity to fund the buildout. That tells investors one thing clearly: AI infrastructure is not a side project. It is a balance-sheet event.

For shareholders, the key issue is not whether AI is useful. It is whether each new dollar invested produces enough future profit to justify today’s spending. That is the grown-up part of the AI story. Less sparkle, more spreadsheet.

The toll booths are getting crowded

Broadcom and Arm show why the market is looking beyond the most visible AI products.

Broadcom designs custom chips and networking technology used in large data centres. In simple terms, it helps the machines inside AI factories talk to each other quickly. Its upcoming earnings on 3 June 2026 matter because investors want to know whether AI chip demand is broadening beyond the most famous suppliers.

Broadcom’s first-quarter AI revenue reached 8.4 billion USD, up 106% from a year earlier, and the company guided for 10.7 billion USD in AI semiconductor revenue in the second quarter. The important question is not just growth. It is durability. Are customers signing long-term programmes? Are margins holding? Is demand coming from several large buyers, or just a few giant wallets with keyboards?

Arm is different. It historically makes money by licensing chip designs. Other companies use those designs and pay Arm royalties. This is a capital-light model, meaning it can generate revenue without building every physical product itself.

Now Arm is trying to move closer to the hardware profit pool. Its AI data-centre chip ambitions point to a company seeking a larger role in the buildout, not just a small royalty on someone else’s success. That could raise the potential reward, but also the risk. Selling more complete hardware is harder than collecting design royalties. It means more execution pressure, more supply-chain risk and more competition.

For the wider industry, this is the key implication. AI is creating a full supply chain, not a single product category. The beneficiaries may include chip designers, networking suppliers, power equipment makers, data-centre builders, cooling specialists and cloud platforms. The loser may be any company that spends heavily without clear pricing power.

Where the cycle can bite

The first risk is overbuilding. If too many firms assume AI demand will rise in a straight line, supply could grow faster than profitable use cases. Early warning signs include falling cloud prices, shorter customer contracts and rising data-centre vacancy.

The second risk is dilution. Equity raises can fund growth, but they also spread future profits across more shares. That can be sensible if returns are high. It becomes painful if spending rises faster than profit.

The third risk is concentration. Many AI suppliers depend on a small number of very large customers. That can create fast growth, but also sudden air pockets if one buyer delays orders. Investors should watch order visibility, customer mix and management language around demand.

Investor playbook

Separate AI users, AI builders and AI landlords. Their economics can look very different.
Watch cash flow, not only revenue growth. Revenue is the applause. Cash flow pays the rent.
Compare spending with returns. Capital expenditure should eventually support higher profits, not only bigger press releases.
Look for bottlenecks. Scarce chips, power, networking and cooling can shape who captures value.

The factory test

The AI story has not become less exciting. It has become more financial. That is healthy for long-term investors. Product cycles reward novelty. Capital cycles reward discipline, patience and the ability to earn good returns on large investments. Anthropic’s IPO filing may show how attractive private AI economics really are. Alphabet’s equity raise shows even giants need funding choices. Broadcom and Arm show that the plumbing of AI may be as important as the showroom. The next phase of AI will still be about intelligence, but for investors, the smarter question is simpler: who pays for the factory, and who collects the rent?

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The author does not hold any position in the financial instruments mentioned at the time of publication

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Theme - Artificial intelligence Artificial Intelligence

Covered call or cash-secured put

Tue, 02 Jun 2026 06:30:00 Z

Covered calls and cash-secured puts can help long-term investors make portfolio decisions more deliberate by linking option trades to shares they already own or cash they are willing to deploy. The key is not chasing premium, but understanding the obligation: selling shares at a chosen price or buying them at a chosen level.

Covered call or cash-secured put

Two option strategies for investors who want to use shares or cash more deliberately.

Many long-term investors hear the word “options” and immediately think about speculation or high-risk trading. That reputation exists for a reason, but it is only part of the picture. Some option strategies are designed around shares or cash an investor already has.

Two of the most widely used examples are the covered call and the cash-secured put. Both strategies involve selling an option and receiving premium upfront. In return, the investor accepts an obligation. With a covered call, that obligation is to sell shares at a predetermined price. With a cash-secured put, it is to buy shares at a predetermined price.

That distinction matters because the right strategy often depends less on market forecasts and more on the investor’s starting point. Do you already own shares that you would be willing to sell at a higher price? Or do you have cash available and would be happy to buy shares at a lower price?

For many buy-and-hold investors, that is the real decision.

The covered call: income from shares you already own

A covered call starts with an existing share position. The investor owns at least 100 shares and sells a call option against those shares.

By selling the option, the investor receives premium income upfront. In exchange, they agree to sell the shares at the strike price if the option buyer decides to exercise the contract.

In simple terms, a covered call allows an investor to generate additional income from shares they already hold, while accepting that the upside above the strike price is limited.

A covered call can generate income from shares you already own, but it limits potential gains above the strike price. Source: Saxo

A simple example

Imagine an investor owns 100 shares of a company trading at EUR 50. The investor sells one call option with a strike price of EUR 55, an expiry one month away, and a premium of EUR 1.50 per share. Because one listed equity option typically represents 100 shares, the investor receives EUR 150 in premium before transaction costs.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.

From here, three broad outcomes are possible:

Stock stays below EUR 55: The option expires worthless. The investor keeps the shares and the EUR 150 premium.
Stock rises above EUR 55: The shares may be sold at EUR 55. The investor keeps the premium, but upside above EUR 55 is capped.
Stock falls sharply: The investor still keeps the premium, but the shares can lose significant value.

The premium provides a small buffer against losses, but it does not eliminate the downside risk of owning the shares. A covered call is still primarily an equity position. The option income can slightly improve returns or reduce the impact of a modest decline, but it does not fully protect the portfolio during a large sell-off.

The cash-secured put: income while waiting to buy shares

A cash-secured put works differently. Instead of starting with shares, the investor starts with cash.

The investor sells a put option and sets aside enough cash to buy 100 shares if assigned. In return for accepting that obligation, they receive premium upfront.

In practical terms, a cash-secured put can be viewed as a disciplined way of expressing willingness to buy a stock at a lower price.

A cash-secured put can generate income while waiting to buy shares, but the investor must be willing to buy if the stock falls below the strike price. Source: Saxo

A simple example

Using the same stock at EUR 50, the investor sells a put option with a strike price of EUR 45, an expiry one month away, and a premium of EUR 1.20 per share. The investor receives EUR 120 in premium before transaction costs and sets aside EUR 4,500 in cash in case the shares must be purchased.

From here, three broad outcomes are possible:

Stock stays above EUR 45: The option expires worthless. The investor keeps the EUR 120 premium and does not buy the shares.
Stock falls below EUR 45: The investor may have to buy 100 shares at EUR 45.
Stock falls sharply: The investor still buys at EUR 45, even if the market price is much lower.

The premium lowers the effective purchase price slightly, but it does not remove the risk of buying a declining stock. For that reason, cash-secured puts are generally most appropriate for stocks the investor would genuinely be comfortable owning for the long term.

Covered call or cash-secured put?

Although the two strategies are often compared, they usually solve different problems. A covered call is typically used by investors who already own shares and would be comfortable selling them at a higher price. A cash-secured put is typically used by investors who have available cash and would be comfortable buying shares at a lower price.

What do you need first? Covered call: at least 100 shares. Cash-secured put: enough cash to buy 100 shares.
What do you receive? Option premium in both cases.
What obligation do you accept? Covered call: sell shares at the strike price. Cash-secured put: buy shares at the strike price.
Typical investor mindset: Covered call: “I would sell at this price.” Cash-secured put: “I would buy at this price.”
Main benefit: Covered call: additional income on existing shares. Cash-secured put: income while waiting to buy shares.
Main risk: Covered call: missing further upside and exposure to share declines. Cash-secured put: buying shares during a decline.

Seen this way, the strategies are less about predicting markets and more about formalising decisions many long-term investors already make. A covered call says: “I would be willing to sell my shares at this level.” A cash-secured put says: “I would be willing to buy the shares at this level.”

Why these strategies appeal to long-term investors

One reason these strategies are often introduced to newer option investors is that they are linked to familiar portfolio decisions. The covered call is connected to an existing shareholding. The cash-secured put is connected to a potential future purchase.

Neither strategy relies on leverage in the way some more speculative option structures do. In both cases, the investor either owns the shares already or holds enough cash to meet the obligation.

That does not make the strategies risk-free. Both involve selling options, which means accepting obligations in exchange for premium. The premium is not free money. It is compensation for accepting a future commitment.

That distinction becomes especially important during volatile markets. A covered call investor can still face losses if the stock falls sharply. A cash-secured put investor can still be required to buy shares during a difficult market environment. As a result, many experienced investors focus less on the premium itself and more on whether they would genuinely be comfortable with the obligation attached to the trade.

Common misunderstandings

Long-term investors often discover that the biggest risks in these strategies are behavioural rather than technical.

With covered calls, some investors become frustrated if the stock rallies strongly and the shares are called away. The premium income can feel attractive at the start, but the strategy can underperform a simple shareholding during sharp upward moves.

With cash-secured puts, investors sometimes focus too heavily on the premium and not enough on the stock itself. A high premium can occasionally reflect elevated market risk rather than a particularly attractive opportunity.

That is why many experienced investors begin with a stock they already understand and would be comfortable owning without the option premium.

A practical way to think about both strategies

A covered call can be viewed as setting a target sale price for shares you already own.

A cash-secured put can be viewed as setting a target purchase price for shares you would like to own.

In both cases, the option premium is the compensation for making that commitment. For investors who already think in terms of target buying and selling levels, that framework can make options feel less abstract and more connected to decisions they already make in traditional investing.

Final thoughts

Covered calls and cash-secured puts are often presented as beginner-friendly option strategies, but they still require planning and discipline.

The key question is not whether the premium looks attractive. The key question is whether the investor would genuinely be comfortable with the obligation that comes with the trade.

A covered call may fit an investor who already owns shares and would be comfortable selling them at a predefined price. A cash-secured put may fit an investor who has available cash and would be comfortable buying shares at a lower level.

For long-term investors, that is often the most useful way to approach both strategies.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.

Educational Resources
Position management for covered calls and cash-secured puts Understanding the covered call option strategy Understanding the poor mans covered call Understanding the option collar strategy Understanding the naked put option strategy How put options work Understanding the protective put option strategy Guide on long-term options for strategic portfolio management Assignment explained - 01 - what every options trader and investor should know Assignment explained - 02 - how to avoid assignment Assignment explained - 03 - how to use option assignment to your advantage Assignment explained - 04 - option assignment cheat sheet

Educational Resources

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Asia Market Quick Take – 02 June, 2026

Tue, 02 Jun 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 2 June, 2026

Key points:

Macro: Iran halts talks with US after Israeli strikes in Lebanon
Equities:S&P 500 gained 0.3% to new highs as Nvidia(+6.3%) announces new CPU chip
FX:USD firms; USDJPY nears 160 despite record Japanese FX intervention efforts
Commodities: Copper rallied above $6.50 while WTI rose above $90
Fixed income: 30-year yield down in 7 of the past 8 sessions, below 5%

------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

Iran halted contacts with Washington after Israeli strikes in Lebanon and is weighing with allies closing the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. Trump says talks continue and a deal on Hormuz could come within a week. Lebanon wants any extended Hezbollah–Israel ceasefire to cover all its territory.
US ISM Manufacturing beat expectations in May, but prices paid stayed above 80 for a second month, the first time since the post-Covid period, underscoring sticky inflation.
Canada’s manufacturing PMI held in growth at 52.9 in May, just below April’s 53.3. Output, new orders, and employment rose on stronger demand, but input and output prices neared four-year highs, supply chains were hit by Middle East disruptions, and business confidence stayed subdued.
US construction spending rose 0.4% m/m in April 2026, its second straight increase and above expectations, lifting the y/y gain to 0.9%. Private and public spending both rose 0.4%, with single-family housing up 1.4% while multi-family and private nonresidential dipped.
Germany’s manufacturing PMI was revised up to 50.1 in May 2026 from 49.9, signaling near-stagnation and a four-month low, as new orders fell, prices saw their biggest rise since June 2022, output growth slowed, job cuts deepened, and business expectations stayed muted but slightly improved from April.
Switzerland’s GDP grew 0.4% q/q in Q1 2026, below the 0.5% estimate. Industrial output rose on stronger manufacturing, but chemicals and pharma slumped, pulling goods exports down. Services growth was modest, with gains in transport and finance offset by weaker trade, retail, and tourism. Domestic demand was flat, as higher government spending was offset by lower investment, and imports fell on soft demand.
Germany’s retail sales fell 0.3% m/m in April 2026, their fourth straight decline but slightly better than forecasts. Non-food and online sales dropped sharply, while food sales rose 3.2%. On the year, sales were down 0.2%, pointing to weak consumer demand despite easing inflation.

Equities:

US — S&P 500 rose 0.3% to a record 7,599.96 on Monday, its eighth consecutive gain and longest winning streak since May 2025. Nasdaq 100 gained 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.4% to 27,086.81, its 19th record close of 2026. Nvidia surged 6.3%, leading the index, after unveiling a new superchip described as the most efficient PC chip ever built. MGM Resorts was the single largest gainer, up 16.1%. Anthropic's confidential IPO filing also boosted AI sentiment, valuing the company at $965b. Salesforce rose 9.6% after revealing a stake in Anthropic worth about $5b. In after-hours trade, HPE soared after guiding for FY26 revenue growth of 29–33%, well above consensus, citing surging AI server demand. Credo Technology fell approximately 12% after hours on disappointing results.
EU — European equities declined on Monday, weighed by Iran war uncertainty and a lack of AI-linked exposure. The Stoxx 600 fell 0.8%, its biggest drop since 15 May, with healthcare leading losses. The FTSE 100 dropped 0.7% to 10,338.95, its lowest close since 19 May, with AstraZeneca down 2.7% and Persimmon falling 5.4%. The DAX fell 0.4% to 25,003.04, with Rheinmetall the largest decliner at -6.7%. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed 0.26% lower at 6,034.95, down for a third consecutive session. EasyJet was a notable outperformer, jumping as much as 13% to a three-month high.
Asia — The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.9% after closing at an all-time high on Monday. The Nikkei opened 0.5% lower at 66,629, dragged by auto and chemical stocks — Toyota is down 2.9% and Shin-Etsu Chemical fell 4.1%. The Kospi opened 1.1% higher but reversed sharply to trade around 0.3% lower. S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 futures are off 0.4%. On Monday, the Hang Seng rose 0.9% to 25,398, led by Meituan (+6.5%) after the company reported a Q1 adjusted net loss of 4.97 billion yuan, narrower than the 6.83 billion yuan estimate. Mainland investors bought a net HK$4.66 billion via Stock Connect. NIO and XPeng ADRs each gained 5.4% in New York after May deliveries rose month-on-month. Daikin fell as much as 5% after being cut to Hold at Jefferies.

Earnings this week:

Tuesday: Palo Alto Networks, Dollar General, Ulta Beauty, GEK Terna, GitLab
Wednesday: Broadcom, Inditex, CrowdStrike, Medtronic, Veeva Systems
Thursday: Ciena, Samsara, Planet Labs, Lululemon, Rubrik
Friday: Sectra, Mr Price Group, ABM Industries, Foschini Group

FX:

USD strengthened with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edged up 0.25% on Monday, snapping a two-day decline, as Iran peace deal uncertainty revived safe-haven demand for the greenback.
USDJPY rose to 159.67, approaching the psychologically significant 160 level. Japan spent a record $73.6 billion intervening to prop up the yen over the past month, but the currency has nearly retraced the full move. Markets are watching closely for renewed intervention.
EURUSD slipped 0.1% to 1.1647, though the euro is expected to find support as the ECB is widely anticipated to hike rates at its June meeting, narrowing the policy gap with the US.
GBPUSD at 1.3460 was the only G10 gainer Monday, extending a three-day advance. With few domestic drivers, sterling is seen largely driven by Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls.
AUDUSD fell to 0.7160 as Lebanon-related tensions boosted the USD. RBA Board member Ian Harper spoke, but with limited market impact. NZDUSD sits near 0.5930, testing a key downtrend from the February 2021 high; a June close above could signal further gains.

Commodities:

Gold fell 1.9% to settle at $4,475.20 per troy ounce, pressured by persistent inflation and elevated rate expectations that limit the appeal of the metal as a safe haven, even as geopolitical uncertainty from the Iran conflict provides a partial floor.
Comex copper surged 2.59% to $6.524 per pound on Monday, its third-highest close in history, as traders position ahead of the US Commerce Department's June 30 deadline to deliver an updated recommendation on import tariffs for refined copper. Citi sees copper potentially reaching $14,500 per tonne in June.
US crude oil rallied toward $92 per barrel amid stalled Iran ceasefire talks before paring some gains after Trump's comments on Israel-Hezbollah. Elevated oil prices continue to feed through into broader inflation expectations and are a key variable for global bond markets.

Fixed income:

The US Treasury yield curve shifted higher in a bear-flattening move, with the 2-year yield rising 3.8 basis points to 4.051% and the 10-year yield up 3.6 basis points to 4.475%, snapping a five-day streak of falling yields. The move was driven by the stronger-than-expected ISM Manufacturing print and elevated prices paid data.
The 30-year Treasury yield edged down slightly to 4.990%, continuing its recent trend of outperforming the front end. The 30-year has fallen in seven of the past eight sessions and remains well off its 52-week high of 5.180% hit on 19 May.
PIMCO argued that the recent rise in long-dated Treasury yields is driven primarily by shifting Fed rate path expectations rather than AI-related debt issuance or term premium, pushing back on a widely cited narrative. US junk bond spreads dropped to a four-month low, with high-yield credit continuing to be supported by solid fundamentals and softer inflation data.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

CrowdStrike and Palo Alto earnings: the next AI stress test

Mon, 01 Jun 2026 08:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

CrowdStrike and Palo Alto enter earnings with high expectations and strong recent share-price momentum.
Artificial intelligence is raising both cyber risks and demand for better digital defences.
Key areas to monitor include customer growth, contract demand, margins and how each company describes the role of artificial intelligence in cybersecurity.

Cybersecurity used to be a digital lock on the office door. Now the building has more doors, more windows, more delivery robots, and one intern using artificial intelligence (AI) to write code at midnight.

That is why this week matters. Palo Alto Networks reports fiscal third-quarter 2026 results after the US market close on 2 June 2026. CrowdStrike reports fiscal first-quarter 2027 results after the US market close on 3 June 2026.

Both companies sit at the centre of a simple but powerful investment question: does AI make cybersecurity software less valuable, or more important?

The market has recently leaned towards “more important”. Both CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks have seen strong investor interest ahead of results, helped by the view that AI could expand the need for better digital defences.

Two different ways to guard the same castle

CrowdStrike protects computers, cloud systems and employee identities through its Falcon platform. In plain English, it helps companies spot suspicious activity early and stop attacks before they spread. That matters in a world where one weak laptop, cloud account or password can become the front door for a much bigger problem.

For the quarter ending 30 April 2026, CrowdStrike guided for revenue of about 1.36 billion USD and annual recurring revenue of around 5.50 billion USD. Annual recurring revenue is the subscription income a company expects to repeat each year. For investors, it shows whether customers are staying, spending more and treating the product as essential digital plumbing.

The key question is whether CrowdStrike can keep turning its customer base into broader platform demand. It has largely rebuilt investor confidence after the 2024 software update incident that disrupted millions of Windows devices. Earnings will test whether customers keep expanding Falcon across more of their security budgets.

Palo Alto Networks is broader. It sells security across networks, cloud systems, security operations, identity and artificial intelligence. Its strategy is called “platformisation”, meaning customers buy more tools from one provider instead of stitching together many separate products.

Palo Alto guided for fiscal third-quarter revenue of about 2.95 billion USD, up around 29% from a year earlier, and remaining performance obligation of nearly 18 billion USD. That is contracted future revenue not yet booked. The strategic question is whether Palo Alto can become a trusted one-stop security platform without becoming too complex.

Project Glasswing changes the conversation

The bigger story is not just earnings. It is Project Glasswing.

On 8 April 2026, Anthropic announced Project Glasswing, an initiative involving major technology and cybersecurity companies, including CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks. The goal is to use advanced AI to find and fix weaknesses in critical software before attackers exploit them.

That matters because AI changes both sides of the cybersecurity equation. Attackers may use AI to scan code faster, find weaknesses and automate phishing messages that look more convincing. Defenders can use AI to detect strange behaviour, write safer code and respond faster.

This is why cybersecurity is different from some other software categories. In areas like traditional software as a service, AI may reduce the need for some human users and pressure seat-based pricing. In cybersecurity, AI may increase the workload. More digital activity means more places to defend. More automated code means more possible bugs. More AI agents inside companies means new security rules, new monitoring needs and new budget lines.

For investors, the question is not whether cyberattacks disappear. They will not. The question is which companies can turn a more complex threat environment into durable demand without letting costs run ahead of growth.

What the market wants to hear

The market reaction will likely depend on four signals.

First, investors will watch growth quality. Revenue growth is helpful, but subscription demand, customer retention and larger customer deals matter more for long-term confidence.

Second, margins matter. Cybersecurity companies must keep investing in AI, cloud infrastructure and sales teams. If growth stays strong but profitability weakens, investors may become less forgiving.

Third, guidance matters more than the quarter just reported. Markets care about the next hill, not only the one just climbed.

Fourth, management language around AI will be important. Investors want evidence that AI is not just a slide in a presentation, but something customers are buying, using and renewing.

Recent sector volatility adds pressure. Zscaler’s weaker outlook in late May 2026 hit sentiment across cybersecurity, even though analysts debated whether the issue was company-specific or sector-wide. That is the market’s usual subtlety: one company coughs, and the whole sector gets offered a blanket.

Risks to keep in view

The first risk is valuation. Both stocks already reflect high expectations. When shares run hard into results, even good numbers can disappoint if guidance is not strong enough.

The second risk is competition. Microsoft, cloud providers and start-ups are all pushing into security. Customers want fewer tools, but that does not guarantee the same winners forever.

The third risk is execution. CrowdStrike must keep proving reliability after the 2024 outage. Palo Alto must show that platformisation and acquisitions can improve the customer offer without creating complexity. Early warning signs include weaker customer growth, slower contract expansion, rising sales costs and softer renewal trends.

Investor playbook

Watch guidance first. A strong past quarter matters less than confidence in the next few quarters.
Track annual recurring revenue and remaining performance obligation as signals of future demand.
Compare growth with margins. Fast growth is better when it does not require ever-higher spending.
Keep position size in mind. Cybersecurity is structural, but high expectations can make stocks jumpy.

The lock is no longer enough

Cybersecurity remains one of the clearest long-term digital themes because companies cannot simply opt out of being protected. Banks, hospitals, factories, retailers and governments all run on software. That software now faces a smarter threat environment, partly because AI gives both attackers and defenders sharper tools.

CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks enter earnings week as two leading names in that fight, but also as stocks carrying high expectations. For investors, the lesson is balanced: cybersecurity demand looks structural, but price still matters. The door needs a lock, the windows need sensors, and the portfolio still needs discipline.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The author does not hold any position in the financial instruments mentioned at the time of publication

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Quarterly earnings Theme - Cyber security

The SaaS earnings message: AI changes the rules, not the whole game

Fri, 29 May 2026 08:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

AI is boosting infrastructure and data platforms, but pressuring traditional software expectations.
Investors are rewarding clear usage growth and questioning seat-based software models.
The key test is not AI features, but whether customers pay more for them.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is starting to split the technology market into two camps. On one side are the companies selling the picks, shovels and data roads. On the other are software companies that must prove their old toll booths still work. The latest earnings round showed that split clearly.

The old software bargain is being tested

Software as a service (SaaS) has been one of the great business models of the past two decades. Companies paid regular subscriptions to use cloud-based tools, often priced by the number of employees, or “seats”. More employees meant more seats. More seats meant more revenue. Very civilised. Almost suspiciously so.

AI complicates that model. If an AI agent can perform work that used to require several users clicking through software screens, then pricing by seats may become less powerful. A customer may still need the software, but may not need to pay for as many human users in the same way. This is why our AI SaaS disruption list focuses on companies where AI could either strengthen the product or weaken the old seat-based pricing model.

Salesforce sits right at the centre of that debate. The company reported first-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue of 11.13 billion USD and adjusted earnings per share of 3.88 USD, both ahead of expectations, as compiled by Bloomberg. It also highlighted momentum in Agentforce, its AI agent platform. Yet its second-quarter revenue forecast was slightly below market expectations, and investors focused on the risk that AI could change traditional software demand.

The lesson is simple. Adding AI features is no longer enough. Investors want evidence that AI increases customer spending, improves retention and protects margins. In simple terms: does it make the product more valuable, or just more expensive to run?

Data platforms look like the new control room

Snowflake had a very different market reaction. Snowflake helps companies store, manage and analyse large amounts of data in the cloud. That matters because AI is only as useful as the data it can safely use. A very clever model with messy data is like a sports car with cooking oil in the engine.

Snowflake reported first-quarter revenue of 1.39 billion USD, up about 34% from a year earlier, and raised its full-year product revenue guidance. It also expanded its partnership with AWS through a five-year, 6 billion USD commitment. The market liked the combination: stronger growth, clearer AI demand and deeper access to cloud infrastructure.

Snowflake closed at 239.20 USD on 28 May 2026, up 36.4%. That move was large because it changed the narrative. Snowflake had been treated as a high-growth software company facing tougher scrutiny. The new results suggested it may also be a key data layer for enterprise AI.

That is an important distinction. Some software companies may be disrupted by AI. Others may become the plumbing that makes AI useful inside companies. Plumbing rarely sounds exciting, but investors have learned not to laugh at pipes.

Hardware is getting paid first

Dell shows the other side of the story. Dell is best known for personal computers, but its more important AI role today is in servers, storage and infrastructure. These are the physical systems companies need to train, run and deploy AI models.

Dell reported first-quarter revenue of 43.84 billion USD and raised its full-year revenue forecast to 165 billion USD to 169 billion USD. The company also now expects 60 billion USD of AI server revenue for fiscal 2027. Shares rose sharply after hours as investors reacted to the stronger AI server outlook.

This is why hardware and infrastructure have looked more straightforward than SaaS in the AI trade. Companies need computing power before they can redesign workflows. The bills arrive early. The productivity gains may arrive later, possibly with a calendar and a polite apology.

For investors, that creates a timing gap. Infrastructure companies can show demand now. Software companies must show that AI becomes a paid product, not just a feature customers expect for free.

Risks to watch

The biggest risk is overconfidence. AI infrastructure demand is strong, but server businesses can have lower margins and more cyclical demand than pure software. If customers pause spending, hardware earnings can slow quickly.

For SaaS, the risk is pricing pressure. If AI reduces the need for traditional user licences, companies must shift towards usage-based pricing, where customers pay based on activity or value delivered. That can work, but transitions are rarely neat. Investors should watch renewal rates, large customer growth, margins and whether AI products create real extra revenue.

A third risk is customer fatigue. Every company now says it has an AI strategy. Some do. Some have a chatbot wearing a small hat. The market will become less forgiving when AI claims do not show up in sales, cash flow or customer behaviour.

Investor playbook

Separate AI beneficiaries by layer: chips, servers, cloud, data, applications and services.
Watch whether AI revenue is new spending or just a renamed old product.
Compare share price moves with earnings quality, not only headline growth.
Keep position sizes sensible when expectations move faster than the business.

The useful question

The latest earnings round does not say that SaaS is broken. It says the easy version of the software story is over. In the old world, investors could often reward recurring revenue, high margins and steady customer growth. In the AI world, they must ask what the software actually does, how essential it is, and whether AI makes it stronger or easier to replace.

That is a healthier question. Dell shows that infrastructure is getting paid first. Snowflake shows that trusted data may become more valuable. Salesforce shows that even strong software leaders must keep proving the model. AI is not killing software. It is turning the lights on, and a few old business models may prefer the room slightly darker.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The author does not hold any position in the financial instruments mentioned at the time of publication

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles Theme - Defence UKMustRead

Asia Market Quick Take – 29 May, 2026

Fri, 29 May 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 29 May, 2026

Key points:

Macro: US, Iran agree tentative 60-day truce, Hormuz reopening; Trump approval pending
Equities: Dell soars 38% on massive AI-server growth; Costco posts strong sales and memberships
FX: Dollar weakened on Iran truce, soft PCE; yen strengthens near 160
Commodities: Oil swings on Iran conflict and truce news; gold and silver rebound
Fixed income: Treasuries extend rally on Iran peace hopes

------------------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

The US and Iran reportedly reached a tentative 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though the agreement awaits President Trump's final approval. The deal would allow unrestricted shipping through the strait without tolls or harassment.
US April PCE inflation rose 3.8% YoY, the highest since May 2023, driven by elevated energy costs. Core PCE came in at 0.2% MoM versus the 0.3% estimate, a modest positive surprise. Personal income was flat versus an expected 0.4% gain while spending rose 0.5%.
US Q1 GDP was revised down to 1.6% annualised from the initial 2.0% estimate, below consensus expectations, driven by weaker consumer spending growth.
Fed speakers struck a cautious but increasingly hawkish tone. St. Louis Fed's Musalem warned the real policy rate is below neutral, longer-term inflation expectations are drifting up, and a rate hike scenario exists if disinflation does not materialise within one to two quarters.
ECB April meeting accounts showed a number of officials said the decision was a close call and they would not have opposed a hike at that meeting. The accounts firmly point to a June 10-11 rate hike as priced by markets.
Tokyo CPI data releases this morning and is the key near-term data point for BOJ rate hike expectations. Markets are pricing approximately 75% probability of a BOJ hike in June and 92% by July.
Canada Q1 GDP releases today with consensus around 1.4% annualised growth, rebounding from a -0.6% Q4 contraction. Canada's Q1 current account deficit widened sharply to C$7.2 billion from C$1.0 billion, surpassing the C$4.3 billion consensus.

Equities:

US: US equity indexes hit record highs on Thursday as the S&P 500 advanced 0.6% to 7,563.63, marking its sixth consecutive daily gain. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.9% to 26,917.47, also hitting a record. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up less than 0.1% to 50,668.97. Dell Technologies soared 38% in after-hours trading after raising its full-year revenue outlook to $165-169 billion including $60 billion from AI server sales, with AI-server revenue up 757% in Q1. Hewlett Packard Enterprise climbed 16%, while Super Micro Computer added 10% after-hours in tandem. Agilent Technologies surged nearly 17% after its full-year earnings forecast beat estimates. Costco’s Q3 saw EPS in line with expectations, revenue beat at $70.5 billion, comparable sales up 9.8%, membership income up 7% and renewal rates near 90%. Anthropic became the world’s most valuable AI startup after raising $65 billion at a $965 billion valuation, nearly tripling its February mark; its run-rate revenue is reportedly above $47 billion, and Apollo/Blackstone are arranging about $36 billion in debt to finance Google TPU purchases.
EU: European stocks fell on Thursday as the Stoxx 600 index closed 0.5% lower, having earlier shed as much as 1% as traders awaited confirmation of the US-Iran ceasefire reports. The FTSE 100 fell 0.8% to 10,425.96, its largest one-day decline since May 15. The DAX dropped 0.3% to 25,092.25 for its third consecutive day of losses. The Euro Stoxx 50 ended 0.25% lower at 6,055.11. French chip material engineer Soitec soared after projecting a 15% revenue uptick for Q1 2027. Siemens Energy led declines, falling 4.4%, while Dassault Systemes dropped 5.7%.
Asia: Asian equity index futures for Australia, Japan and Hong Kong were all pointing higher early Friday, tracking the S&P 500's sixth consecutive record close and positive US-Iran ceasefire news. On Thursday, South Korea's Kospi fell 0.5% to 8,185.29 after dropping as much as 4% intraday following the Bank of Korea's hawkish signal, though resilient dip buying limited losses. The index is up 207% from a year ago, driven by AI-fuelled chip stocks. Japan's Nikkei declined 0.5% to 64,693.12 on Thursday as fresh military strikes in the Persian Gulf stoked concern about peace deal prospects. Taiwan's Taiex hit an intraday record before turning negative. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index retreated from a record, ending a five-day winning streak.

FX:

USD weakened after reports of a tentative 60‑day US–Iran ceasefire extension, pending Trump’s approval, pushing the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index down 0.2%. A softer‑than‑expected April PCE print (0.4% vs 0.5% forecast) added to the pressure. SEK and NZD leading G-10 advances.
JPY was the only G-10 currency to gain Thursday, with USDJPY slipping marginally to 159.25 and nearing the 160 level associated with past intervention, prompting hedging ahead of Tokyo CPI.
EUR rose 0.22% to 1.1652, breaking a two-day losing streak but remaining in consolidation near its 55-day moving average; it’s seen as better placed versus sterling if the ECB hikes in June.
CAD strengthened 0.40% against the USD to 1.3786, its largest one-day gain since April 30, snapping a two-session losing streak for the greenback. The move came ahead of today's Q1 GDP release.
Emerging-market FX logged a seventh straight advance, the longest run since January 2025, on optimism over a potential US–Iran accord, while USDCNH edged up 0.1% to 6.7883.

Commodities:

WTI settled at $88.90 (+0.2%) and Brent at $93.71 (-0.6%) after an unusually volatile Thursday that saw WTI trade across nearly a $10 range. Prices first spiked on fresh Iranian drone attacks and US airstrikes in the Strait of Hormuz, then reversed sharply after reports of a tentative 60‑day US–Iran ceasefire deal, pending Trump’s approval.
Gold futures rose 1.1% to $4,499.30 per troy ounce on Thursday, snapping a three-session losing streak, as tentative hopes of a US-Iran deal supported the precious metal. Silver climbed 1.4% to $75.645 per ounce. CME Group lowered margins on gold and silver futures contracts after a review of market volatility.
Copper futures settled 1.36% higher at $6.3960 per pound on Thursday, the largest one-day gain since May 20, marking the fifth-highest close in history. LME 3-month copper closed $170 higher at $13,702 per ton, supported by supply concerns and AI infrastructure demand.

Fixed income:

Treasuries rallied on Thursday on the peace deal report with yields falling 1 to 3 basis points across the curve and the long end outperforming. The 10-year yield fell 2.9 basis points to 4.455%, marking six consecutive sessions of declines, the longest streak since April 2025. The 30-year yield declined 2.7 basis points to 4.984%.
The US Treasury's $44 billion 7-year note auction stopped through at 4.290% versus the 4.291% when-issued yield at the bidding deadline, indicating demand slightly exceeded expectations. The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.52, above the previous auction's 2.51, with the 10.4% primary dealer award the lowest in three months.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

Oil, chips and tanks: the portfolio lesson hiding in plain sight

Tue, 26 May 2026 11:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Investors could think about diversifying by risk type, not only by asset class.
Oil, artificial intelligence and defence expose portfolios to very different shocks.
The goal is not prediction, but building a portfolio that can survive surprise.

Markets have a habit of teaching the same lesson in different costumes. Sometimes the teacher arrives as an oil price shock. Sometimes it wears a hoodie and calls itself artificial intelligence. Sometimes it turns up in uniform, carrying a defence budget.

The common thread is simple. Investors often think diversification means owning stocks, bonds and maybe some cash. That still matters. But today’s market is also shaped by different kinds of risk: energy shock risk, valuation risk, technology risk, geopolitical risk and interest-rate risk. They do not all behave the same way. Some bite. Some scratch. Some quietly chew through returns while everyone is looking elsewhere.

That is why oil, artificial intelligence (AI) and defence belong in the same conversation. They look like separate stories. In a portfolio, they are linked by one question: what type of risk are you really taking?

Source: Saxo Bank analysis. For illustrative purposes only. This is a simplified framework and does not represent investment advice.

Same market, different shocks

Oil is the clearest example of physical-world risk. When energy prices rise sharply, the effect spreads beyond oil producers. Transport becomes more expensive. Airlines feel pressure. Chemical companies face higher input costs. Consumers have less money left after filling the car or paying heating bills. Inflation can become stickier, which may keep interest rates higher for longer.

This is why markets react so strongly to Middle East headlines. The price of oil is not just a commodity number on a screen. It is a tax on the real economy when it rises too far, too fast. It can help energy companies, but hurt companies that depend on cheap fuel, smooth logistics or confident consumers.

AI risk is different. It is not mainly about scarcity today. It is about expectations tomorrow. Investors have rewarded companies seen as winners from AI infrastructure, chips, data centres and cloud computing. But that creates another risk: the market may start asking when huge spending turns into visible profits.

That spending is not small. Big technology companies are committing vast sums to data centres, chips and power-hungry infrastructure. Capital expenditure, meaning money spent on long-term assets, has become a central part of the AI story. Investors like growth. They like it slightly less when growth arrives with a bill the size of a small moon.

Defence brings a third type of risk: political and geopolitical risk. Europe’s renewed focus on military readiness is not just a short-term reaction to headlines. It reflects a broader shift in security thinking. Governments want more air defence, drones, ammunition, satellites, cyber protection and production capacity. This can support defence companies, but it also depends on public budgets, political priorities and delivery timelines.

Put simply, oil tests the cost side of the economy. AI tests expectations and valuations. Defence tests political commitment and industrial capacity.

Why asset class diversification is not enough

A portfolio with stocks and bonds can still be concentrated in one type of risk.

For example, many global equity portfolios are heavily exposed to large US technology companies. That can be fine, but it means investors may carry more AI and valuation risk than they realise. Adding a bond fund may reduce some equity volatility, but it does not directly answer whether the investor is too exposed to one technology cycle.

Likewise, an investor may own European equities and think they are regionally diversified, while holding many companies that depend on low energy prices. That portfolio could still be vulnerable to an oil shock.

Defence exposure can create another illusion. Defence stocks may look defensive because governments buy the products. But if valuations already reflect years of higher spending, the investment risk changes. The theme may be sound, while the entry price becomes less forgiving. That is not a contradiction. It is investing, where two things can be true and still annoy everyone.

The lesson is to map risks, not just labels. A global equity fund, an energy stock, a defence stock and an AI chip supplier are all “equities”. But they do not respond to the same forces. One may like higher oil prices. One may suffer from them. One may depend on government budgets. One may depend on cloud companies continuing to spend aggressively.

The better question is not “How many asset classes do I own?” It is “What could hurt my portfolio, and do I own anything that behaves differently if that happens?”

The industry message is broader than markets

These three themes also show how the real economy is changing. Energy security is back. Computing power is becoming strategic infrastructure. Defence supply chains are being rebuilt after years of lean inventories and underinvestment.

That matters because markets are no longer only pricing earnings next quarter. They are pricing access to scarce things: reliable energy, advanced chips, electrical power, skilled labour, military production lines and trusted supply chains.

For long-term investors, this shifts the focus from chasing the hottest theme to understanding bottlenecks. In AI, the bottlenecks include chips, data-centre power, cooling and grid access. In defence, they include production capacity, procurement speed and skilled manufacturing. In energy, they include shipping routes, spare capacity and political stability.

A good portfolio does not need to predict every bottleneck. It needs to avoid being fragile to just one version of the future.

Risks to keep on the radar

The first risk is overconfidence. A strong theme can still be a poor investment if the price already assumes perfection. This is especially relevant in AI and defence, where long-term demand may be real but valuations can move faster than reality.

The second risk is policy reversal. Defence budgets can rise, but elections, deficits and procurement delays still matter. Investors should watch whether government promises turn into signed orders and delivered systems.

The third risk is inflation returning through energy. If oil prices stay high, central banks may have less room to cut interest rates. That could pressure long-duration growth stocks, which are companies valued heavily on profits expected far in the future.

Investor playbook: diversify the risks, not just the boxes

Check whether your portfolio depends too much on one theme, region or interest-rate outcome.
Separate “good story” from “good price”. A theme can be right and still overpriced.
Look for different return drivers: cash flows, dividends, pricing power, contracts and balance-sheet strength.
Use scenarios. Ask what happens if oil rises, AI spending slows or defence budgets are delayed.

The map is not the territory

Oil, AI and defence look like three separate headlines. In a portfolio, they are three reminders that risk comes in different shapes. Some risks come from geopolitics. Some from valuation. Some from supply chains, interest rates or government policy. The point is not to own a little of every fashionable theme. That is not diversification. That is collecting market souvenirs.

The better habit is to understand what each holding is meant to do, what could go wrong, and whether the rest of the portfolio can absorb the shock. A resilient portfolio is not one that predicts the next headline. It is one that does not need every headline to be friendly.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The author does not hold any position in the financial instruments mentioned at the time of publication.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles Theme - Defence UKMustRead

Peace talks, troop shifts and satellites: defence gets broader

Fri, 22 May 2026 09:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Defence demand remains structural, but stock prices already reflect a lot of optimism.
Europe is learning that relying on the United States comes with policy whiplash.
The theme is spreading from tanks and ammunition to satellites, data and space infrastructure.

Defence investing used to look simple. Bad headline, defence stocks up. Peace headline, defence stocks down. Nice and tidy, like a spreadsheet before reality enters the room. That old shortcut is becoming less useful. Defence is no longer just a panic trade on scary news. It is becoming a long industrial cycle, shaped by politics, budgets, factories, supply chains and technology.

The peace premium is not the same as peace

The Iran story shows why markets are struggling to price defence and geopolitical risk. Talks between the US and Iran appeared to make some progress, but disputes over Iran’s uranium stockpile and possible shipping tolls in the Strait of Hormuz quickly darkened the mood. The Strait matters because it is one of the world’s most important energy routes. When it becomes a bargaining chip, oil prices tend to develop a personality.

This matters for defence investors because oil, inflation and security are now linked. Higher energy costs can squeeze consumers and companies, but they can also remind governments why security spending remains politically popular.

At the same time, diplomacy talk can cool the defence trade. According to the Financial Times, EU governments are discussing whether a senior figure such as Mario Draghi or Angela Merkel could represent Europe in potential talks with Russia. That is important, but it is not the same as a peace deal. It is a possible diplomatic channel.

Even a ceasefire in Ukraine would not automatically reverse Europe’s defence buildout. Years of low spending, empty inventories and dependence on US support cannot be repaired with one signature. Peace can reduce urgency. It does not refill ammunition depots overnight.

Washington gives, Washington pauses, Europe notices

The latest US troop news shows why Europe is reassessing its reliance on Washington. Bloomberg reported on 22 May 2026 that President Donald Trump pledged to send an additional 5,000 US troops to Poland, following earlier uncertainty over delayed or cancelled deployments. The pledge was welcomed by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), but the sequence also reminded allies how quickly US security policy can shift.

For Europe, the message is still the same. The US security umbrella remains important, but it is less predictable. That strengthens the case for Europe to spend more on its own defence, not only on headline equipment, but also on logistics, air defence, satellites, drones, cyber systems and manufacturing capacity.

For long-term investors, this is the key point. Defence spending is not just about one war or one election. It is about Europe trying to rebuild strategic autonomy. That phrase sounds like it escaped from a policy conference, but the meaning is simple: Europe wants more of the tools needed to protect itself, even when Washington’s mood music changes.

Rheinmetall shows the factory problem

Rheinmetall is still one of the best-known ways investors track the European defence theme. The German group makes armoured vehicles, ammunition, air defence systems and related equipment. Yet its share price shows the risk of paying too much for a good story. Rheinmetall closed at 1,209.40 EUR on 21 May 2026, 39.8% below its 52-week high of 2,008.00 EUR.

That does not mean the defence theme is broken. It means expectations became very high. Investors are no longer rewarding order announcements alone. They want evidence that orders can become revenue, revenue can become cash flow, and factories can scale without delays.

This is where defence looks less like a quick trade and more like heavy industry. Ammunition lines need workers, permits, inputs and machines. Vehicles need components. Satellites need launch slots, sensors and secure communications. Governments can announce spending quickly. Companies cannot build new capacity by sending a strongly worded email to a factory.

The battlefield is moving above the clouds

OHB is a useful company to watch because it sits at the intersection of space and defence. The German group builds satellites and space systems, which are increasingly important for surveillance, navigation and communications.

OHB shares have surged in recent sessions, helped by wider excitement around European space stocks. But the more important story is strategic. Helsing, a German artificial intelligence defence company, and OHB have formed a venture to develop space-based surveillance, reconnaissance and targeting systems.

In simple terms, this means using satellites and data to see, track and understand what is happening on the ground. Modern defence is less about one big platform and more about connected systems. The side that sees first, communicates better and acts faster often has the advantage.

That makes space companies more relevant to the defence theme. It also makes the theme broader, messier and harder to value.

Risks: not every bunker is a bargain

The first risk is peace headline risk. If Russia-Ukraine talks gain traction or Iran tensions ease, defence stocks can fall even if long-term spending remains intact. The early warning signs are lower oil prices, tighter credit spreads and weaker performance from defence shares on otherwise positive market days.

The second risk is execution. Backlogs are useful only if companies can deliver. Watch for delays, margin pressure, labour shortages and weak cash conversion.

The third risk is valuation. Some defence and space stocks have already priced in a bright future. A bright future bought at too high a price can still deliver a dull return. Markets enjoy that kind of joke more than investors do.

Investor playbook

Separate headlines from budgets. Lasting contracts matter more than one dramatic news alert.
Watch cash flow, not only orders. Factories need money before they produce results.
Diversify across the chain. Platforms, ammunition, electronics, satellites and software face different risks.
Treat peace talks as volatility, not automatic theme death. Rebuilding defence capacity can take years.

The new defence checklist

Defence investing has moved from a simple fear trade to a long-term industrial story. The headlines still matter, from Hormuz to Warsaw to Brussels. But the deeper question is who can turn government promises into working systems, delivered on time and at sensible returns.

Rheinmetall reminds investors that even strong themes can overheat. OHB shows that the next layer of defence may sit in orbit, not only on the ground. The best way to read the theme is not to ask whether the world is dangerous today. It is to ask which companies help governments prepare for a world that remains uncertain tomorrow.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles Theme - Defence UKMustRead

Nvidia earnings: artificial intelligence gets its report card

Wed, 20 May 2026 20:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Nvidia delivered another very strong quarter, led by demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure.
Guidance beat expectations, but China and high expectations kept the initial stock reaction restrained.
The bigger investor question is now duration: how long can this spending cycle stay this strong?

Nvidia did not just report earnings on 20 May 2026. It handed investors another progress report on the artificial intelligence buildout.

The numbers were strong. Nvidia reported first-quarter revenue of 81.6 billion USD, up 85% from a year earlier. Data centre revenue, the core of the artificial intelligence story, reached 75.2 billion USD, up 92%. The company guided for second-quarter revenue of ahead of expectations, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The initial after-market reaction was mildly negative, suggesting investors liked the strength but were already looking beyond the headline beat. That may sound harsh. It is also what happens when a company becomes the unofficial scoreboard for one of the largest investment themes in markets. The earnings question is no longer whether demand is real. It is whether demand can stay this strong for long enough to justify the expectations already in the share price.

Strong numbers, stricter teachers

The main result was clear: demand remains powerful.

Revenue grew 20% from the previous quarter and 85% from a year earlier. Adjusted gross margin was 75%, which means Nvidia still keeps a very large share of each sales dollar after direct production costs. That matters because it suggests customers are still paying up for performance, supply and access to Nvidia’s platform.

Nvidia also announced an additional 80 billion USD share repurchase authorisation and raised its quarterly dividend from 0.01 USD to 0.25 USD per share. That will not be the main story for growth investors, but it does show how much cash the artificial intelligence boom is creating.

The market’s restrained initial reaction is therefore less about weak results and more about the bar. Nvidia has become so important that good is not enough. Investors want proof that the cycle extends into 2027 and beyond, that margins can stay high, and that customers are not simply ordering ahead before the next chip transition.

The data centre is now the centre of gravity

Data centres are the large facilities that store, process and move digital information. Artificial intelligence has turned them into industrial assets. They need chips, memory, networking, cooling, power and land. The cloud may sound weightless, but it increasingly looks like a very expensive electricity-hungry factory.

Nvidia’s data centre compute revenue reached 60.4 billion USD, up 77% from a year earlier. Networking revenue was 14.8 billion USD, up an eyepopping 199%. That second number matters because artificial intelligence systems do not rely only on one powerful chip. They rely on many chips working together quickly. Networking is the plumbing. Without it, the palace has no running water.

This is why Nvidia’s results matter beyond Nvidia. A strong data centre update supports the broader artificial intelligence supply chain: chip manufacturers, memory companies, networking specialists, data centre operators, power equipment makers and cloud platforms. It also helps explain why the theme has moved from software excitement to infrastructure reality.

For long-term investors, that shift is important. The artificial intelligence story is no longer just about chatbots and clever demos. It is about capital expenditure, supply chains and returns on invested capital. In plain English: companies are spending vast sums, and investors now need to ask who earns attractive profits from that spending.

China is still the quiet swing factor

Nvidia said its second-quarter outlook does not assume any data centre compute revenue from China. That is a key sentence. It means the guidance beat expectations even without including a contribution from one of the world’s largest technology markets.

That makes the result more impressive, but it also shows where uncertainty remains. Export controls, product restrictions and geopolitical decisions can change Nvidia’s addressable market. Addressable market simply means the revenue opportunity a company can realistically target. For a business this large, even small changes in market access can become very large numbers.

Competition is another factor. Advanced Micro Devices, Broadcom, custom chips from cloud companies and new internal designs all matter. They may not remove Nvidia’s leadership quickly, but they can reduce pricing power over time. The question is not whether Nvidia faces competition. The question is whether its full system, from chips to software and networking, remains hard enough to replace.

Risks to watch

The first risk is expectations. Nvidia can report excellent numbers and still see pressure if investors expected something close to perfect. That is not unfair. It is just what happens when a stock carries a very large share of market confidence.

The second risk is customer spending. The largest cloud companies are investing heavily in artificial intelligence infrastructure. If those companies slow spending, delay orders or struggle to turn artificial intelligence services into revenue, the whole supply chain could feel it.

The third risk is geopolitics. Watch China commentary, export licences and any change in the company’s assumption around China data centre revenue. In this story, policy can move faster than a product roadmap.

Investor playbook

If shares move lower after strong results, compare the move with guidance, margins and China assumptions.
If margins stay around current levels, it suggests Nvidia still has pricing power and customer urgency.
If networking keeps growing faster than compute, it supports the idea that artificial intelligence systems are scaling.
If cloud companies slow capital spending, stress-test the wider artificial intelligence supply chain, not just Nvidia.

The neat ending

Nvidia’s quarter shows that the artificial intelligence buildout remains very real, very large and very profitable for the companies sitting closest to the infrastructure layer. But the market’s first reaction also shows that investors have become harder to impress. That is healthy.

Great companies still need to clear great expectations, and Nvidia’s report is no longer just about one quarter of revenue. It is about the length, profitability and resilience of an entire investment cycle. The lesson for investors is not to guess tomorrow’s share price. It is to understand the machinery behind the story, because the machinery is now the story.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles Theme - Artificial intelligence Artificial Intelligence NVIDIA Corporation Quarterly earnings UKMustRead

Asia Market Quick Take – 20 May, 2026

Wed, 20 May 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 20 May, 2026

Key points:

Macro: Trump warns of strikes if talks with Gulf nations fail
Equities: US futures slides as yields climb and Trump threatens Iran
FX: USD strengthens as yields climb higher
Commodities: Metals fall across the board; WTI remains above $100
Fixed income: US 30Y yields reach highest since July 2007

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson supports holding rates steady, calling policy mildly restrictive and effective at containing inflation while the labor market stays solid. She said it’s healthy for markets to expect a long hold and even consider more tightening. Yield moves are being driven by real rates, and consumers are stretched but not cutting back overall.
Trump warned US strikes on Iran could resume within days if talks with Gulf nations fail, adding to market volatility.
US pending home sales rose 1.4% in April, a third straight gain and above the 1% forecast. Sales were up 3.2% year-over-year, with increases in the Northeast, Midwest, and West. NAR’s Lawrence Yun said buyers are cautiously returning despite higher mortgage rates and warned that without more housing supply, prices could outpace wages and hurt homeownership.
Canada’s headline inflation rose to 2.8% in April from 2.4%, a two-year high but below the 3.1% forecast, mainly on a 19.2% jump in energy that lifted transportation inflation to 7.6%. BoC’s trimmed-mean and median core measures fell to 2.0% and 2.1%, their lowest in five years. Food inflation eased to 3.5%, and shelter edged up to 1.8%.
The UN cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.5%, 0.2 ppts below January’s view and under the estimated 3.0% in 2025, citing inflation from the Middle East conflict. Strong labor markets, resilient demand, and AI-driven trade and investment provide some support, but the outlook stays weak. Energy price gains are boosting producers while pressuring households and firms. The US is seen growing 2.0% in 2026.

Equities:

US – US equity indexes slid on Tuesday as the 30-year Treasury yield rose to a two-decade high amid bets favoring higher interest rates and President Trump's threat to Iran. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.8% to 25,870.71, with the S&P 500 down 0.7% to 7,353.61 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lower by 0.7% to 49,363.88 at the close. Materials, communication services, and consumer discretionary sectors led declines. Home Depot gained 0.7% after posting first-quarter earnings that beat analysts' estimates with revenue rising 4.8% to $41.8 billion. ServiceNow surged after strong results. Alphabet declined 2.3%, contributing the most to the S&P 500 index decline. Vertiv Holdings fell 13% over two days, the most since April 2025.
EU – European stocks rose for a second day, with the Stoxx 600 index gaining 0.2% by the close. Evolution AB jumped 7% after the Swedish online gambling company approved a €2 billion share buyback. Currys Plc rose 15%, the most since September 2025, after the electrical products retailer increased its full-year profit guidance. IG Group Holdings Plc surged 10.5% after beating expectations and raising its outlook. SAP rallied 6.0%, leading gains. Germany's DAX index rose 0.38% to 24,400.65. Poland's KGHM led a selloff in European mining stocks, sliding 5% to 322.60 zloty as a rise in US Treasury yields hit silver and gold prices.
Asia – Asian stocks dropped for a third session as a lack of clarity over an Iran peace deal and elevated global bond yields weighed on risk sentiment. South Korea's Kospi Index was one of the worst performers, tumbling 3.3% to close at 7,271.66 as rising bond yields dulled the appeal of growth stocks like chipmakers. The Kosdaq declined 2.4% to close at 1,084.36. Samsung Electronics and its largest labor union managed to narrow some differences in their fresh talks that resumed Monday. Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 lost 0.4% to finish at 60,550.59, erasing initial gains after the government reported that the economy grew for the second straight quarter in January-March, mainly due to better than expected consumer spending. Hong Kong's Hang Seng and Singapore's STI also traded under pressure amid the broader regional selloff.

Earnings this week:

Wednesday — Tokio Marine; Nvidia; Analog Devices; TJX; Intuit; Experian; Lowe’s; Target
Thursday — NetEase; Singtel; NIO; Walmart; Deere; Take-Two Interactive; Workday

FX:

USD strengthened to a six-week high against G-10 currencies as renewed inflation fears pushed US yields sharply higher and shifting trader focus toward 5.5% as the next key level. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained as much as 0.5% intraday before easing.
USDJPY climbed to its strongest since Japan’s April 30 intervention, while intervention risk kept demand for options hedges elevated.
AUD slid to a one-month low after the RBA signalled caution amid higher fuel costs.
GBP and EUR weakened, with UK data showing the steepest job losses since the pandemic. CAD also softened after cooler core inflation, lifting USDCAD modestly.
The yuan declined both onshore and offshore, weakening past the 6.8 key level. USDCNH rose 0.25% to 6.8166.

Commodities:

Gold and silver slumped as Treasury yields rose on inflation concerns. Comex gold for May delivery lost $46.20 per troy ounce, or 1.01%, to $4,506.30, marking its fourth consecutive session decline and the lowest settlement value since Friday, March 27, 2026.
Copper prices fell with LME 3-month copper closing $176 lower at $13,411 a ton. Chile lowered its production forecasts for this year and next, with Chilean production expected to fall 2% to 5.3 million metric tons this year, weighed down by lower ore grades, maintenance and operational constraints. Chile lifted its 2026 copper price forecast to $5.55 per pound.
Crude oil futures remained above $100 per barrel amid ongoing uncertainty about the Iran war. The American Petroleum Institute reported US crude inventories fell 9.1 million barrels last week, with Cushing stockpiles down 1.4 million barrels, gasoline down 5.8 million barrels, and distillate down 1.0 million barrels. WTI's July contract traded at $104.09 per barrel.

Fixed income:

The 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5.20%, the highest level since July 2007, as investor concerns mounted that accelerating inflation will force central bankers to raise interest rates. The yield rose 0.034 percentage point to 5.180% by the close, marking its third consecutive day of gains and largest three-day yield gain since Wednesday, May 21, 2025.
A series of large sales in US Treasury futures exacerbated the selloff in the $31 trillion government debt market. A wave of block sales in both 5-year and 10-year note futures added to the pressure during a manic hour of trading in the US morning session.
Australian and New Zealand bonds tracked Treasuries lower on mounting bets that oil-driven cost pressures will prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The implied yield on Australia's 3-year note futures added 3 basis points to 4.71% in the overnight session, while that on 10-year bond futures lifted 4 basis points to 5.12%. The yield on New Zealand's 2-year note rose 3 basis points to 3.69%, while that on the 10-year bond advanced 6 basis points to 4.80%.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

The space economy is coming down to Earth

Mon, 18 May 2026 12:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Space is becoming infrastructure, not just exploration, and a possible SpaceX IPO could draw more attention to the theme.
Growth is spreading beyond rockets into satellites, defence, connectivity, data and the systems that make space useful.
A shortlist helps investors map the opportunity without chasing every rocket launch or headline.

Space used to be easy to file under “science fiction, rockets and very expensive smoke.” That is changing. The space economy is becoming part of everyday infrastructure, from internet connections and weather data to defence, farming, shipping and navigation.

This matters now because the sector is no longer just about who can launch the most impressive rocket. It is about who can turn orbit into repeatable revenue. The global space economy reached USD 613 billion in 2024, according to Space Foundation, while the Satellite Industry Association reported fresh growth across satellite broadband, launches and ground equipment in 2025.

According to several news outlets, SpaceX is preparing for a possible initial public offering (IPO), with a potential Nasdaq listing as early as June 2026. Nothing is certain until it happens, and private-company IPO plans can change faster than a launch window in bad weather. But the signal matters. A SpaceX listing would likely bring more investor attention to the wider space economy, from satellites and launch systems to connectivity, defence and ground infrastructure.

For investors who want to understand how IPOs work before any potential SpaceX listing, Saxo’s guide to investing in IPO stocks offers a useful starting point: how the process works, what to watch, and why newly listed companies can be exciting but risky.

That is the reason behind Saxo’s new space economy shortlist. It is not a prediction machine, and it is not a list of “buy this now before Mars gets crowded.” It is a map. The goal is to help investors understand where listed companies sit across the value chain, from satellite operators to defence firms and the less glamorous suppliers that make the whole system work.

The useful space economy is not always the shiny bit

The public story of space often starts with rockets. Fair enough. Rockets are dramatic, loud and hard to ignore. But for investors, the more useful story often starts after launch.

Satellites help planes stay connected, ships navigate, farmers monitor crops, insurers assess damage, governments secure communications and consumers use location services without thinking about them. Space is quietly becoming a utility layer for the modern economy. Not quite electricity, but closer to “useful plumbing in the sky” than many people realise.

That is why the investment opportunity is broader than pure space companies. Some firms operate satellites. Some build rockets or spacecraft. Others provide aerospace systems, defence technology, sensors, chips, antennas, ground stations, software or connectivity services.

The shortlist groups this world into practical buckets: launch and space operators, satellite, data and space intelligence companies, defence and aerospace leaders, and space picks and shovels, connectivity and communications. The last bucket may sound less romantic, but investing is not a romance contest. Often, the picks and shovels are where the steadier business models live.

Why the theme is timely

The timing is not only about long-term forecasts. It is also about what is happening now.

Satellite broadband is growing quickly as companies try to connect remote areas, aircraft, ships and military users. The Satellite Industry Association said global satellite broadband subscribers rose strongly in 2025, while satellite services revenue reached USD 105 billion. That shows the sector is moving from “interesting technology” to customer demand.

In Europe, the story has an extra layer: sovereignty. The European Union’s IRIS2 programme aims to provide secure satellite communications for governments, businesses and citizens. In plain English, Europe wants more control over critical communications infrastructure. Recent updates from SES and Eutelsat show that demand is not only about consumer internet. It is also about aviation, military, maritime and secure government use.

For investors, this changes the lens. Space is not one single theme. It overlaps with defence, telecoms, transport, cybersecurity, industrial supply chains and artificial intelligence. That creates both opportunity and confusion. A shortlist helps cut through the fog, which is helpful because fog is not an investment process.

What investors can actually watch

The most important question is not whether space is exciting. It is whether companies can earn attractive returns from it.

That means watching contracts, backlog, margins and capital spending. Backlog is work already contracted but not yet delivered. It can show whether demand is becoming visible. Margins show whether growth is profitable, not just impressive in a slide deck. Capital spending matters because space infrastructure is expensive, and expensive dreams can still send invoices.

Investors can also watch customer mix. Revenue from governments, airlines, defence agencies, telecom operators and maritime clients may be more durable than revenue built only on speculative future demand. The best signal is not a big vision statement. It is a signed customer paying real money. Revolutionary, almost suspiciously practical.

The shortlist can help here by separating the theme into different business models. A satellite operator faces different risks from a defence contractor. A chip supplier has different drivers from a launch company. A data specialist depends on different customers from an aircraft connectivity provider. One theme, many moving parts.

Risks: orbit is useful, but gravity still exists

The first risk is valuation. Exciting themes often attract high expectations. When expectations rise faster than earnings, share prices can become fragile. Investors should watch whether companies are still delivering revenue growth, cash flow and margins, not only attractive stories.

The second risk is execution. Space projects face delays, technical problems, regulation and heavy upfront costs. Launch schedules can slip. Satellites can fail. Government budgets can shift. In this sector, patience is useful, but blind patience is just a subscription to disappointment.

The third risk is competition. Starlink has changed the satellite-connectivity market, and other players are trying to catch up. Some listed companies may benefit from the growth of the ecosystem, while others may see pricing pressure or older businesses decline. Eutelsat’s recent shift away from legacy video and towards low Earth orbit connectivity is a good example of how the industry is changing in real time.

Investor playbook

Use the shortlist as a map of the value chain, not as a shopping list.
Compare business models: operators, suppliers, defence firms and data companies carry different risks.
Watch contracts, backlog, margins and capital spending before reacting to big headlines.
Keep position size and diversification in mind, because theme investing can get crowded quickly.

The final orbit

Space is becoming less about escaping Earth and more about making Earth work better. That is the real investment story. The most useful parts of the space economy sit behind ordinary activities: flying, shipping, mapping, connecting, defending and measuring.

The new Saxo space economy shortlist is designed to make that hidden infrastructure easier to understand. It does not remove risk, and it does not predict the next winner. It gives investors a clearer map of the companies building, operating and enabling the space economy. In a theme full of rockets, that map may be the most grounded tool in the room.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles

Asia Market Quick Take – 15 May, 2026

Fri, 15 May 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 15 May, 2026

Key points:

Macro: Retails sales in line at 0.5%; Initial jobless claims at 211k vs 205k
Equities: Equity futures new high for 2^nd straight day
FX: USD strengthens following constructive Trump-Xi Summit
Commodities: Oil looking to close for 7% gain for the week
Fixed income: US 2Y yields highest since June 2025

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

Kevin Warsh was confirmed as the new Federal Reserve chair, with bond markets already repricing higher and raising interest rates ahead of his tenure.
US retail sales rose 0.5% month-on-month in April 2026, in line with forecasts, after a downwardly revised 1.6% gain in March. Gasoline stations led with a 2.8% increase amid higher fuel prices; excluding gas stations, sales were up 0.3%. Core retail sales (excluding food services, autos, building materials, and gas) also climbed 0.5%, slightly above expectations of 0.4%.
Japan’s producer prices rose 4.9% year-on-year in April 2026, the fastest since May 2023 and above the 3% forecast, driven by higher energy-related costs linked to Iran war–related disruptions. On the month, PPI jumped 2.3%, up from 1% in March and the strongest increase since April 2014.
Major resignations are intensifying a leadership challenge to UK PM Keir Starmer after Labour’s local-election losses, with MP Josh Simons stepping aside for Andy Burnham and Health Secretary Wes Streeting quitting to position for PM; Angela Rayner was cleared in a tax probe, potentially enabling a bid. BoE’s Sarah Breeden said the Middle East conflict is unlikely to spark a 2022-style inflation surge, while UK GDP grew 0.6% in Q1 and 1.1% year-on-year.
US jobless claims rose by 12,000 to 211,000 in the first week of May, above forecasts of 205,000. Continuing claims increased by 24,000 to 1.782 million, slightly below expectations, but both measures remain below last year’s averages, signaling a still-strong labor market. Claims by federal employees fell by 46 to 392.

Equities:

US: The S&P 500 climbed 0.8% to 7,501.24, setting an all-time high for a second straight day after retail sales showed signs of consumer strength despite war-driven energy costs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 370 points or 0.8% to close above 50,000 for the first time since the Iran war began, boosted by Cisco Systems which surged 13% on blockbuster earnings. Cerebras Systems surged 68% on debut after a $5.5bn IPO, valuing it at about $67bn ($83bn fully diluted). Trump says China agreed to buy 200 Boeing jets—its first US-made purchase in nearly a decade—but the deal is well below earlier talk of up to 500 737 MAXs plus widebodies. The Nasdaq 100 gained 0.7% to a new record. Nvidia continued its meteoric rise after US/ China announced resumption of chip sales to China, extending gains toward an unprecedented $6 trillion market capitalization. In after-hours trading, Applied Materials jumped 2.7% after giving sales and profit forecasts far above analysts' estimates, while Figma rose 12% to $22.69 on raised outlook.
EU: The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.8% to 616.04, advancing for a second straight day with technology shares leading gains. ASML Holding climbed 3.0% on the back of better-than-expected results from Cisco Systems in the US. Siemens rallied 2.6% after agreeing to acquire several businesses from Mer Mec. Germany's DAX jumped 1.3% or 319.45 points to 24,456.26, the largest one-day gain since May 6, with Infineon Technologies rising 5.8%. The FTSE 100 gained 0.5% or 47.58 points to 10,372.93 in London. France's CAC 40 rose 0.93% to 8,082.27, while the Euro Stoxx 50 climbed 1.26% to 5,934.96.
Asia: Asian markets showed mixed performance on Thursday. South Korea's Kospi rose 1.8% to 7,981.41 at the close, rebounding from recent volatility as the index has surged 200% over the past year, far outpacing every other market globally. The rally has fueled speculative mania with locals borrowing record sums and trading volumes soaring to all-time highs. Japan's Nikkei fell 1.0% to 62,654.0 on Wednesday but futures indicated a 0.5% rise to 63,090 for Friday as AI enthusiasm continued. Hong Kong's Hang Seng and mainland Chinese benchmarks were mixed as investors monitored the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing. Singapore's Straits Times Index gained 1.2% or 57.96 points to finish at 5,003.96 on Wednesday, with Wilmar International leading gainers by rising 3.0%. Singapore Airlines’ net profit slumped 57% to S$1.18b, beating estimates, as losses at associates including Air India weighed; it flagged a cautious outlook amid Iran‑war risks.

Earnings this week:

Friday: No major earnings expected

FX:

The British pound fell 0.9% versus the dollar, down the most since February 5, dropping to 1.3436 per dollar, the lowest since April 13, after Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham said he's seeking to run for Parliament, potentially opening an avenue to challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
The Japanese yen weakened past 158 per dollar after a brief overnight rally, rising 1.1% for the week on track for its biggest weekly gain since March, keeping traders on alert for possible intervention by Japanese authorities.
The offshore yuan advanced for an 11th straight session, marking its longest stretch of gains against the dollar since 2017, reaching 6.7816 per dollar, its strongest level since February 2023, as the Trump-Xi summit progressed with positive signs.
The euro slid as resilient US sales data fueled a dollar rally, with further advances in US yields threatening a breakout to the downside for EURUSD.
AUDGBP steady at 0.53899 after hitting a near three‑year high on sterling weakness amid UK political jitters (Burnham bids for Parliament).

Commodities:

Oil headed for a weekly gain of almost 7%, with WTI edging toward $102 a barrel and Brent crude closing near $106, as the crucial Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed with the US naval blockade of Iran's ports still in place.
Gold headed for a modest weekly decline of 1.2% since last Friday, trading steady near $4,650 an ounce, as war-driven surge in US inflation fueled expectations for higher interest rates, with the dollar strengthening and 10-year Treasury yields jumping.
Metals fell broadly, with LME tin, COMEX silver, and lithium carbonate dropping over 2%, while LME nickel, LME and SHFE copper also declined amid global market volatility.

Fixed income:

The 30-year Treasury yield fell to 5.012%, snapping a three-day streak of rising yields, though it remained near the fourth highest level this year and off just 0.077 percentage points from its 52-week high of 5.089%.
The 10-year Treasury yield was little changed at 4.468% after topping 4.5% earlier this week, with Treasuries trimming early gains as the market moved with oil prices and left yields near their highest levels of the year. US 2Y yield hits highest since June.
Japanese government bond futures fell as much as 32 ticks to 128.37, tracking moves in US Treasuries, as external pressures built from climbing Treasury yields and renewed yen weakness.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

Asia Market Quick Take – 14 May, 2026

Thu, 14 May 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 14 May, 2026

Key points:

Macro: US PPI jumped to 1.4% vs 0.5% forecast
Equities:SP500 and Nasdaq hit fresh highs
FX: USD strengthens after hot PPI data
Commodities: Copper gains for 8^th straight session
Fixed income: Yields climb on signs of inflationary pressures

------------------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

US producer prices rose 1.4% month-on-month in April 2026, the biggest gain since March 2022 and above the 0.5% forecast, with goods up 2% (including a 15.6% jump in gasoline) and services up 1.2%. Year-on-year, headline PPI increased 6%. Core PPI (excluding food and energy) climbed 1% on the month and 5.2% on the year, both above expectations.
The Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair by a 54-45 margin, the slimmest confirmation in history for the position. Warsh officially starts on May 14.
Oil inventories are falling around the world at a record pace and will continue to drop for months as the disruption to Middle East supplies from the Iran war intensifies, according to the International Energy Agency.
President Trump arrived in Beijing for his first meeting with China's Xi Jinping on Thursday. Trump downplayed the amount of attention the Iran conflict would get during the summit, saying he would prioritize trade talks.

Equities:

US: US equity indexes closed mixed on Wednesday as communication services and technology sectors led gains amid the fastest annual pace of growth in producer prices in four years. The Nasdaq jumped 1.2% to 26,402.34 and the S&P 500 climbed 0.6% to 7,444.25, both hitting fresh record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1% to 49,693.20. Cisco Systems surged as much as 19% in after-hours trading after delivering a better-than-anticipated sales forecast of $16.7 billion to $16.9 billion for the fiscal fourth quarter and announcing plans to cut fewer than 4,000 jobs. Marvell shares closed up 8.2% to $177.95 for a new record high. Nvidia, Tesla, and Apple executives joined President Trump's business delegation to China.Cerebras Systems raised $5.55bn in its US IPO, pricing at $185 a share for a c.$40bn valuation, after orders exceeded 20x the shares on offer.
EU: European stocks rebounded on Wednesday with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index rising 0.8% to 611.36. Technology stocks led the market higher as ASML Holding rose 4.8%, the biggest contributor to the index, tracking gains in Korean chipmakers. Merck KGaA rallied 6.8% as its results showed strong momentum in life sciences. The FTSE 100 rose 0.6% to 10,325.35, with British American Tobacco contributing the most to the index gain by increasing 3.7%. Germany's DAX advanced 0.8% to 24,136.81, with Infineon Technologies having the largest increase at 10.7%. Mining stocks hit a new record as copper gained for an eighth consecutive session on fears of a supply squeeze.
Asia: Asian equity markets showed mixed performance on Wednesday and opened higher on Thursday. South Korea's Kospi rose 2.6% to close at 7,844.01 on Wednesday, hitting a fresh all-time high as local retail investors bought into a wave of selling by foreign funds. Memory chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix rebounded during the day to end 1.8% and 7.7% higher respectively. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.8% or 529.54 points to 63,272.11 on Wednesday, striking a fresh all-time high as a strong earnings season continued. SoftBank Group rose 1.7% after 4Q net profit more than tripled and beat estimates, lifted by OpenAI‑linked gains.This morning, the Nikkei opened flat at 63,263.46 while the Kospi opened 0.4% higher at 7,873.91. Equity-index futures for Japan and South Korea advanced after US benchmarks closed at record highs. Alibaba and Tencent ADRs surged despite each company reporting revenue that fell short of estimates.

Earnings this week:

Thursday: Applied materials, Honda, Singapore Airlines

FX:

The dollar advanced versus most Group-of-10 peers for a third straight session as US headline and core PPI readings both exceeded estimates. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose about 0.1%.
The euro lost 0.23% to $1.1715, down for three straight sessions and hitting the lowest five pm New York rate since Tuesday, May 5, 2026. The currency faced downside pressure from diverging labor markets as euro-area employment indicators showed signs of strain.
The Chinese yuan extended a multi-day rally both onshore and offshore ahead of the Trump-Xi summit. USD/CNH fell for a 10th day to 6.7876, the longest losing streak since September 2017, defying US dollar strength.
The Japanese yen weakened with the dollar gaining 0.17% to 157.88 yen, up for three straight sessions. The return of dollar-yen to almost 158 suggests more intervention may be needed if Tokyo wants to curtail short sentiment toward the Japanese currency.
Sterling lost 0.12% to $1.3524, down for three straight sessions and hitting the lowest five pm New York rate since Wednesday, April 29, 2026. The British pound was among worst performers in the Group of 10 amid rising uncertainty over UK leadership.

Commodities:

Oil slipped in volatile trading with WTI falling 1.1% to settle at $101.02 a barrel on Wednesday, snapping a three-session winning streak. Traders awaited the pivotal Trump-Xi meeting while fresh US data suggested stockpiles have yet to drop to critical levels.
Gold held a decline near $4,700 an ounce after dropping 0.6% on Wednesday as a resurgence in US inflation reinforced bets the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer. Treasury 10-year yields rose toward the highest since July.
Copper gained for an eighth consecutive session on fears of a supply squeeze. The copper cash-to-three-month spread on the London Metal Exchange increased $18.58 from the previous trading day to -$43.52 a ton on May 13.

Fixed income:

The 30-year Treasury bond auction was awarded at 5.046%, the highest monthly result since 2007, versus a 5.041% when-issued yield at the bidding deadline. The auction tailed slightly, reflecting weaker-than-expected demand. The 30-year yield rose 0.017 percentage point to 5.046%.
Treasuries ended narrowly mixed with the curve steeper around a little-changed 10-year sector at 4.47%. Long-end tenors weakened during US morning as investors set up for the bond auction, leaving yields in the sector about 2bp cheaper on the day.
Japanese government bond yields rose as the 30-year JGB sale shaped up to be a tough one after the US sold similar-duration Treasuries at 5%. Long-term Japanese investors may decide it is worth waiting for JGBs to reach 4% before jumping in, which with the current trajectory could arrive before the end of June.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

Should you sell in May and go away? Why market timing can cost more than you think

Tue, 12 May 2026 13:30:00 Z

Key points:

Seasonal patterns exist, but they are not reliable enough to run a long-term portfolio.
Staying invested usually beats jumping in and out based on the calendar.
May is a useful reminder to review risk, not to abandon discipline.

Every May, investors meet the same old market rhyme: “sell in May and go away”. It sounds tidy, decisive and pleasantly lazy. Sell now, enjoy the summer, come back when markets behave again. Sadly, markets did not receive the memo.

The saying has some history behind it. The original British version told investors to sell in May and return around St Leger’s Day, a famous horse race in September. It came from a world where wealthy investors left London for the countryside and market activity slowed. A charming image, but not exactly a robust investment process for 2026.

This year, the question feels especially tempting. The Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) closed at a fresh record high. That came despite high oil prices, geopolitical tension around the United States and Iran, and a market still heavily supported by artificial intelligence (AI) enthusiasm.

So, after a strong run, should investors take the seasonal hint and step away? The better answer is more boring, which in investing is often a compliment: review the portfolio, but do not let a rhyme drive the bus.

The calendar has a point, but not a crystal ball

The “sell in May” argument is not pure superstition. Historical data shows that the six months from May to October have often been weaker than the six months from November to April.

Historical data gives the old rhyme some support, but only some. Fidelity notes that since 1945 through April 2026, the S&P 500 gained about 2% on average from May to October, compared with roughly 7% from November to April. Reuters, citing CFRA data, gives a similar message: the long-term May to October return is weaker than the November to April stretch.

That is worth knowing. It means seasonality can describe market weather. But it does not tell you exactly when to leave the house.

The problem is variation and the recent picture is less tidy. Reuters also found that, over the past decade, the May-to-October period returned about 7% on average, including a 22.1% gain in 2025. In other words, the “bad” months have often been rather good. Markets can be rude like that.

The 2026 backdrop also complicates the picture. It is a US midterm election year, and Reuters notes that in five of the last 10 midterm years, the S&P 500 declined from May to October, with an average loss of about 1.5%. That is a reason for risk awareness. It is not a reason to confuse the calendar with a smoke alarm.

The real cost is missing the rebound

Market timing sounds sensible because it promises control. Sell before trouble, buy back after trouble. Easy, except for the minor issue that nobody rings a bell at either moment.

The biggest risk is missing strong days. Market rebounds often arrive quickly, usually when the headlines still look unpleasant. That is why long-term investors can damage returns by stepping out and waiting for “clarity”. Clarity is expensive. By the time everyone feels calm, prices may already have moved.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management research shows that staying fully invested in the S&P 500 over the last 20 years delivered far stronger annualised returns than missing just the 10 best days. The exact numbers change with the period studied, but the lesson does not: a small number of good days can do a large amount of work.

Note: Saxo Bank framework based on J.P. Morgan analysis.

This matters for investors because most portfolios are built for goals, not seasons. Retirement, education savings, house deposits and long-term wealth building do not run on a May to October schedule. They need time, diversification and behaviour that survives bad headlines. That does not mean doing nothing. It means doing the right kind of something.

2026 is a review moment, not an exit signal

The current market has real risks. US equities sit near record highs. AI-linked shares have carried a large part of the enthusiasm. Oil prices remain elevated as geopolitical risks keep inflation worries alive.

Corporate earnings have been strong, but the bar is now higher. At the same time, market sentiment remains fragile, and the rally has been relatively narrow. Investors still like the story, but it is being carried by a small group of heavy lifters. That is the useful message for 2026. The issue is not whether May is dangerous. The issue is whether a portfolio has become too dependent on one market, one theme or one outcome.

A long-term investor can use May as a check-up. Are shares still aligned with the time horizon? Is the portfolio too concentrated in US technology? Is there enough exposure to other regions, sectors or asset classes? Is there cash for near-term needs, so market volatility does not force bad selling? That is more practical than disappearing for the summer and hoping September sends an invitation.

Risks to watch

The first risk is inflation. If oil prices stay high, transport, energy and production costs can rise again. That could make central banks less comfortable cutting interest rates. Investors should watch oil prices, bond yields and inflation releases.

The second risk is narrow leadership. If only a handful of AI and mega-cap technology stocks drive the market, index gains may hide weakness underneath. Watch market breadth, which simply means how many stocks are participating in the rally.

The third risk is complacency. Record highs can make investors feel safer than they are. Valuation matters more when expectations are already warm. A good company can still be a poor investment if too much optimism is already priced in.

Investor playbook

Review concentration. Check whether one region, sector or theme now dominates the portfolio.
Rebalance gradually. Bring positions back toward target weights instead of making all-or-nothing moves.
Keep cash matched to needs. Money needed soon should not depend on summer market behaviour.
Use regular investing. Monthly contributions can reduce the pressure to pick the perfect entry point.

A rhyme is not a strategy

The old rhyme survives because it is catchy. That does not make it a strategy. In 2026, “sell in May and go away” is best treated as a reminder to check risk, not a command to abandon the market. Seasonality can inform investors, but discipline, diversification and time usually do more of the heavy lifting. The calendar may whisper. A long-term plan should speak louder.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead

Cerebras IPO: the dinner-plate chip testing Wall Street’s AI appetite

Tue, 12 May 2026 06:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Cerebras is testing demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure beyond Nvidia’s dominant graphics processing units.
The company’s pitch is speed: faster artificial intelligence answers, not just bigger model training.
The main risks are valuation, customer concentration and turning huge demand into durable profits.

Artificial intelligence has spent the past few years eating capital, electricity and investor attention. Now the next question is simpler: can it answer faster, cheaper and at scale?

That is the promise behind Cerebras Systems, the artificial intelligence (AI) chip company preparing for one of the year’s most watched initial public offerings (IPO). According to Bloomberg, citing Reuters sources, investor demand appears strong enough that Cerebras is considering both a higher price range and a larger share sale.

In plain English, the market may already be willing to pay more before the stock has even started trading. The reported price range could rise to 150 to 160 USD per share, from 115 to 125 USD, while the offering could increase to 30 million shares. At the top end, Cerebras could raise about 4.8 billion USD ahead of its expected pricing on 13 May 2026. That makes the IPO not just a company event, but a useful temperature check for the market’s appetite for AI infrastructure.

That is not a quiet debut. It is more like entering a library with a marching band. For long-term investors, the Cerebras IPO is not only about one company. It is a test of how much the market is willing to pay for the next layer of AI infrastructure. It also shows that the AI race is widening from one dominant chip supplier into a more complex ecosystem of chips, cloud platforms, power, cooling and specialised hardware.

From training the brain to serving the coffee

Cerebras builds chips and systems for artificial intelligence workloads. Its flagship design is different from the standard graphics processing unit (GPU), the type of chip Nvidia has made famous. Cerebras uses wafer-scale chips, which are much larger and designed to keep more computing, memory and data movement close together.

The simple idea is this: less waiting, more answering. That matters because AI is shifting from training to inference. Training is when a model learns from huge amounts of data. Inference is when that model actually responds to a user. Every chatbot answer, coding suggestion, voice response or AI agent task needs inference. It is the practical side of AI, where the bill arrives every time someone asks a question.

Cerebras says its Wafer-Scale Engine 3 can deliver inference up to 15 times faster than leading GPU-based systems on some benchmarked models. Investors should treat company benchmarks with care, but the direction is clear. Speed is becoming a selling point, especially as companies try to build AI products that feel instant rather than “please wait while the future loads”.

This does not mean Cerebras is replacing Nvidia everywhere. Nvidia has a broad hardware and software ecosystem, deep customer relationships and a scale advantage that is difficult to copy. But the Cerebras IPO shows that customers want different tools for different jobs. AI may not be a one-chip kingdom forever.

Wall Street loves a scarce shovel

The reported demand for Cerebras shares is the market reaction before the stock even starts trading. Reuters said orders for the IPO were more than 20 times the available shares. If completed on the reported terms, it could become the world’s largest IPO so far in 2026. That tells us two things.

First, investors remain hungry for AI infrastructure. The public market already has many ways to buy the AI story, from Nvidia to cloud companies and semiconductor equipment makers. But there are fewer pure-play AI chip IPOs. Scarcity can make investors behave like diners who see the last dessert on the menu.

Second, the valuation bar is high. Cerebras reported revenue of 510 million USD in 2025, up strongly from 2024. But it is still building scale, and operating losses remain a concern. A fast-growing company can justify a high valuation, but only if revenue turns into cash flow over time. Backlog is useful. Booked demand is useful. Actual profitable delivery is better.

This is where OpenAI and Amazon matter. OpenAI agreed in January 2026 to add 750 megawatts of low-latency Cerebras compute through 2028. Amazon Web Services also announced a partnership in March 2026 to offer Cerebras chips in its cloud infrastructure. These are serious customers, not hobbyists testing a new gadget in the garage.

Still, customer concentration remains a key issue. Cerebras has relied heavily on a small number of large customers, including customers linked to the United Arab Emirates. New contracts may reduce that risk, but investors need proof over time.

The bigger lesson: ecosystem over icon

The Cerebras story fits a broader theme in AI investing: the winners may not sit in one neat basket. AI needs chips, memory, networking, cloud platforms, data centres, electricity and cooling. It also needs software that customers actually use. That creates opportunities across the value chain, but also more ways for expectations to outrun reality.

For investors, the useful point is not to find “the next Nvidia” as if markets hand out sequel tickets. It is to understand which part of the AI buildout a company serves. Nvidia remains central to training and many inference workloads. Cerebras wants to own a specialised slice where speed and low latency matter most. Amazon wants more control over cloud economics. OpenAI wants more compute options. Everyone wants fewer bottlenecks.

That makes Cerebras a signal. It suggests AI infrastructure demand is still strong, but also that the market is beginning to separate different workloads, different chips and different business models.

Risks to watch

The first risk is valuation. A hot IPO can price in years of success before public investors get a normal trading day. If expectations start in the clouds, even a small disappointment can feel like bad weather.

The second risk is execution. Cerebras must deliver complex systems, expand capacity, support large customers and prove that its performance advantage works outside controlled benchmarks. Watch for delays in Amazon’s rollout, slower OpenAI deployment or weak conversion of backlog into revenue.

The third risk is concentration and regulation. A few large customers can lift growth quickly, but they can also create sharp drops if contracts change. National security scrutiny previously affected Cerebras’ IPO path, so investors should not ignore geopolitics. Chips are tiny, but the politics around them are not.

Investor playbook

Treat the IPO as a signal about AI infrastructure demand, not a guarantee of returns.
Watch backlog conversion, operating losses and customer mix after listing.
Compare Cerebras with the full AI supply chain, not only Nvidia.
Keep position sizing tied to uncertainty, especially after any first-day surge.

The AI race gets more lanes

Cerebras is arriving at a useful moment. The AI story is moving from “who trains the biggest model?” to “who makes AI fast, cheap and reliable enough to use every day?” That is a healthier and more practical question for investors. The company’s dinner-plate chip may capture imaginations, but the real test is less photogenic: revenue quality, customer diversity, margins and execution.

The IPO may be loud, and perhaps deservedly so. But long-term investors do not need to catch every shiny object as it flies past. Sometimes the smarter move is to watch what the market is really telling us: the AI race is still running, but the track now has more lanes.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles Artificial Intelligence Theme - Artificial intelligence IPO Initial Public Offering (IPO)

Asia Market Quick Take – 11 May, 2026

Mon, 11 May 2026 01:00:00 Z

Key points:

Macro: Trump rejects Iran’s response and prolongs close of Straits
Equities: Intel +14% after deal with Apple; Futures lower on Trump response to Iran
FX: Norwegian krone is the top-performing G10 currency YTD
Commodities: Brent crude futures rose as much as 3.5% to $104.80
Fixed income: 30-year US Treasury yields ended the week below 5%

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

Trump rejected Iran’s latest response to his proposal to end the 10-week conflict as “totally unacceptable,” prolonging the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The US added 115K jobs in April 2026, beating forecasts but down from a revised 185K in March, with gains in health care, transport/warehousing, and retail partly offset by losses in information, federal government, and manufacturing. Revisions left February–March employment 16K lower, pointing to a cooling but still resilient labor market.
China’s exports rose 14.1% y/y to a record USD 359.4bn in April 2026, far above forecasts, as firms stockpiled components amid Iran-war cost fears. US shipments rebounded 11.3% despite tariffs, while Jan–Apr exports climbed 14.5% to USD 1.34tn, with sales to the US down 10.2%. Trump-Xi meeting will happen this week 14-15 May.
The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index hit a record low of 48.2 in early May 2026, below April and forecasts, as current conditions slumped on price concerns. About one-third of consumers cited gas prices and 30% tariffs; year-ahead and long-run inflation expectations eased to 4.5% and 3.4%.
US year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 4.5% in May 2026 from 4.7% in April, while the five-year outlook dipped to 3.4% from 3.5%, University of Michigan data showed.
Canada lost 18,000 jobs in April 2026, missing expectations for a 15,000 gain. Full-time employment fell by 47,000 while part-time rose by 29,000; the employment rate edged down to 60.5%, with youth and core-aged male unemployment up and Ontario adding 42,000 jobs.

Equities:

US: US equity-index futures edged lower after the S&P 500 Index rallied to a record on Friday. Contracts for the S&P 500 fell 0.2% in early trading after President Donald Trump rejected Iran's response to his latest proposal to end the war. The SOX index rose more than 5% on Friday to provide an external boost for Asian peers. Dell Technologies was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS with a $243 price target. Intel's price target was raised to $96 from $56 at BofA following news of a potential foundry deal with Apple that could provide $10 billion in sales by 2030. Monster Beverage's price target was raised to $100 from $96 at Morgan Stanley following very strong Q1 and April results.
EU: The Stoxx Europe 600 ended the week flat at around 620 points, despite a volatile stretch that saw the index slide toward 604 before surging nearly 4% to 626 points. The index struggled to mount a relief rally despite talk of a US-Iran deal, oil retreating from highs, resilient earnings, and strong bank beats. Commerzbank announced plans to cut as many as 3,000 roles and lifted financial targets as the bank resists a takeover from Italian rival UniCredit. Tenaris agreed to acquire Romanian pipe maker Artrom Steel Tubes for EUR86 million on a cash-free, debt-free basis. REA Group's 8% price rise suggests confidence in its position and indicates it is untroubled by CoStar-owned Domain, according to Jefferies analyst Roger Samuel.
Asia: Asian stocks are set for a mixed open after President Trump rejected Iran's latest peace proposal, dimming prospects for a near-term resolution to the Middle East conflict. Nikkei futures are up 1.5% at 63,770 on the SGX, with the Nikkei Stock Average having fallen 0.2% to 62,713.65 on Friday. South Korea's Kospi is primed for more gains after a late surge Friday in futures and Korean ETFs, despite the advance in crude oil early Monday. The theme of Asian AI stocks outperforming is becoming a global narrative drawing in funds from all over the investing universe. Hong Kong's Hang Seng saw Hongkong Land lead gainers on May 7, rising 9.2% to US$8.70, while the worst performer was Hongkong Land on May 8, falling 5.2% to US$8.25. Singapore's Straits Times Index gained 0.3% on May 7 to finish at 4,941.96, with Venture Corp leading gainers by rising 10.9% to $18.28, while the index lost 0.4% on May 8 to finish at 4,921.90. The Kospi rallied more than 13% over three sessions earlier in the week, with Goldman Sachs raising its target to 9,000, citing Korea as its highest conviction view with forecast earnings growth of 300% this year.

Earnings this week:

Monday: Circle, Hims&Hers, Rigetti, Barrick Mining
Tuesday: Oklo, Sea limited, Oncloud, JD.com,
Wednesday: Alibaba, Tencent, Cisco, SoftBank Group
Thursday: Applied materials, Honda

FX:

The dollar climbed against most G10 peers in early trading after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran's peace-deal response, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rising 0.1%, paring Friday's 0.2% drop.
The pound was among the biggest laggards as UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer came under pressure to step aside following poor local election results, with GBPUSD indicated 0.1% lower at 1.3618.
The yen dropped against the dollar while Japanese government bonds are expected to fall, with USDJPY up 0.1% to 156.91 as the dollar remains at elevated levels due to Middle East tensions.
The Norwegian krone has become the best performing G10 currency in the year to date, up 9.51% against the US dollar, while the Swedish krona has become the worst performing G10 currency, down 0.04% against the dollar.
AUDUSD down 0.2% to 0.7234 after a 0.6% rise last week. CFTC (week to 5 May): leveraged funds raised net AUD longs by 10,695 to 58,994; net NZD shorts up 2,461 to 19,294, the most bearish since 2019.

Commodities:

Brent crude futures advanced as much as 3.5% to $104.80 a barrel, while WTI climbed to near $99 after Trump said Iran's response was totally unacceptable, prolonging the effective closure of the crucial Strait of Hormuz.
Gold fell as Trump rejected Iran's latest peace offer to end the 10-week conflict, fanning inflation fears, with bullion trading near $4,698 an ounce after rising around 2% last week.

Fixed income:

Yields on 30-year US Treasury bonds briefly touched 5.15%, the highest since July, before ending the week about 2 basis points lower at 4.94% as the bond market has been held hostage by oil prices.
The yield premium for Asia ex-Japan's investment-grade dollar bonds widened at the end of last week after falling to an all-time low earlier, as risk sentiment is waning after President Trump and Iran rejected each other's latest proposal to end the war.
Goldman Sachs has lifted its 10-year JGB yield forecast to 2.5% by end-2026 and 2.25% by end-2027, versus 2% previously across both years, to reflect a more durable risk premium across the curve.
Final CME open interest data show continued liquidation in 2-year note futures after Thursday’s Treasury move, with sizeable new risk added in 5- and 10-year notes. SOFR futures saw a mix of unwinds and fresh positions, while May fed funds open interest rose modestly after Thursday’s heavy buying.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

Datadog’s big bark: why AI may not be the end of software

Fri, 08 May 2026 09:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Datadog’s strong results show AI can boost some software demand, not only disrupt it.
The market is separating useful, embedded software from tools that AI may replace or bundle.
For investors, the key question is simple: does AI make the product more necessary?

Datadog just gave the software sector something it badly needed: evidence that artificial intelligence (AI) is not only a threat. Sometimes, it is also a customer.

On 7 May 2026, Datadog closed at 188.73 USD up 31.3%, after the company reported stronger than expected first-quarter results and raised its full-year outlook. That is not a normal Thursday for a software stock. That is a labrador hearing the word “walk”.

Datadog sells cloud monitoring and security software. In plain English, it helps companies see what is happening inside their digital systems, spot problems, and fix them before customers notice. This is called observability, which sounds like a university word, but really means “do we know what just broke, where, and why?”

The bigger message goes beyond one company. For months, investors have worried that AI will hurt software-as-a-service (SaaS), where customers rent software online instead of buying it once. The fear is simple: if AI agents can write code, handle support, analyse data and automate office tasks, some software tools may become less valuable. Datadog’s results show the story is more nuanced. AI is not taking a flamethrower to software. It is sorting the useful from the replaceable.

The market liked growth with a reason

Datadog’s first-quarter revenue rose 32% from a year earlier to 1.01 billion USD. The company also lifted its 2026 revenue outlook to between 4.30 billion USD and 4.34 billion USD, above earlier guidance and analyst expectations. Adjusted earnings were 0.60 USD per share, also ahead of expectations, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

The quality of the growth mattered. Datadog ended the quarter with about 4,550 customers spending at least 100,000 USD in annual recurring revenue, up 21% from a year earlier. Annual recurring revenue means the revenue a company expects to repeat over a year from subscriptions. For investors, this helps show whether customers are staying and expanding, not just signing one-off deals.

The company also generated 289 million USD of free cash flow. Free cash flow is the cash left after running and investing in the business. It matters because growth funded by real cash is usually healthier than growth funded mainly by hope, conference slides and very expensive coffee.

This is why the share price reaction was so strong. Investors were not only reacting to a beat. They were reacting to a company that appears to sit where two forces meet: cloud complexity and AI complexity.

AI is not killing software. It is changing the test

The old SaaS question was: how many people use the software? The new AI question is: how deeply does the software sit inside the customer’s operations?

That is a big difference. Tools that charge per employee may face pressure if AI reduces headcount or automates tasks. Simple workflow tools may also face bundling risk, where large platforms such as Microsoft, Google or Salesforce add similar features inside broader packages. When a feature becomes part of the furniture, standalone pricing can get harder.

Datadog is a different type of software company. It is closer to digital infrastructure. When companies use more cloud services, more applications, more AI models and more automated agents, their systems become harder to manage. More moving parts mean more things can fail. Datadog sells the control room.

AI may therefore increase the need for observability. Large language models, the systems behind tools such as chatbots and agents, can fail in ways traditional software did not. They can slow down, produce errors, overload systems, or cost too much to run. Companies using AI need to know what is happening across models, graphics processing units (GPUs), data flows, security alerts and customer experiences.

That is the important lesson. AI does not treat all software equally. It pressures some tools, lifts others, and forces every company to prove its relevance.

From selling seats to solving problems

The SaaS model is also changing. Many older software businesses grew by selling more seats, meaning more users inside a customer. That model works well when employment grows and software spreads across departments. It looks less bulletproof when AI agents can do more work with fewer human clicks.

Datadog’s model benefits more from usage and complexity. If a customer runs more applications, produces more data, or deploys more AI systems, the need for monitoring can rise. This does not make the business risk-free, but it gives investors a clearer reason why AI can be a tailwind.

That distinction is useful across the software sector. A company may be more resilient if it helps customers manage risk, lower costs, protect data, improve uptime, or run AI safely. A company may be more exposed if AI can easily copy its output, reduce its user base, or allow a larger platform to bundle the same function.

In short, software investors now need a sharper filter. “AI exposure” is not enough. Every company claims that, preferably before lunch. The better question is whether AI makes the product more necessary, less necessary, or merely more marketable.

Risks: not every bark means a moat

There are still risks. Datadog’s valuation now reflects a lot of good news, so even small disappointments could matter. Strong growth can support high expectations, but high expectations rarely come with a safety helmet.

Competition is another risk. Cloud providers, security vendors and other software platforms all want more of the same budget. Customers may also try to simplify their software stacks, especially if the economy weakens.

Finally, AI demand itself could become uneven. Companies are still learning how much value they get from AI tools in production. Watch for signs such as slower customer growth, weaker usage expansion, lower free cash flow margins, or management talking more about “long-term opportunity” than near-term adoption.

Investor playbook: follow the usefulness

Separate AI labels from AI economics. Look for revenue growth, cash flow and customer expansion.
Watch pricing models. Usage-based revenue may benefit when digital activity grows.
Check whether AI raises complexity. More complexity can support monitoring, security and data tools.
Keep position size in context. Great stories can still become expensive stories.

The bigger lesson

Datadog’s results do not prove that all software is safe from AI disruption. They prove something more useful: the software sector is not one single story. AI can replace some tasks, weaken some pricing models, and make some tools look ordinary. But it can also create new problems that companies must monitor, secure and control.

Datadog rallied because investors saw a software business standing near that control layer. For long-term investors, that is the real takeaway. The AI age may not reward every software company, but it still needs software that keeps the machines from turning the office into a very expensive guessing game.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles

Rheinmetall earnings: a miss, a margin win, and a much bigger defence story

Thu, 07 May 2026 12:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Rheinmetall missed first-quarter expectations, but backlog and guidance still support the bigger defence story.
European defence spending is moving from political promise to industrial execution.
Investors should watch deliveries, margins, cash flow and valuations, not only order headlines.

Defence investing used to sound like a niche policy corner. In Europe, it now looks like a major industrial cycle with steel, software, shipyards and a lot of paperwork.

On 7 May 2026, Rheinmetall reported first-quarter results that were mixed rather than weak. The German company makes military vehicles, ammunition, air-defence systems, digital defence equipment and, after its Naval Vessels Lürssen acquisition, naval systems. Sales reached 1.94 billion EUR, up 8% from a year earlier, and operating profit rose 17% to 224 million EUR. The margin improved to 11.6%.

The problem was expectations. Sales came in below analyst forecasts (as reported by Bloomberg), especially in vehicles and ammunition. After an initially calmer reaction to the early release, Rheinmetall shares fell after the full results gave investors more detail on where the shortfall came from. The message was simple: the defence demand story remains strong, but even defence companies cannot turn orders into revenue by simply shouting “capacity” at a factory wall.

Source: Bloomberg, Saxo Bank. Chart generated using ASKB by Bloomberg AI.

The quarter was not bad. It was awkward.

The first-quarter miss had several moving parts. Vehicle Systems sales were held back by military trucks already produced but not yet called off by the German armed forces. Weapon and Ammunition sales were slower than expected, partly due to the ramp-up of the Murcia ammunition plant in Spain after a fire in 2025. Naval Systems added only one month of contribution after the acquisition closed.

That matters because Rheinmetall’s 2026 guidance is ambitious. Management still expects sales of 14 billion EUR to 14.5 billion EUR this year and an operating margin of around 19%. To get there, the year needs a much stronger second half. This is not unusual in defence, where large deliveries can land unevenly. But it does raise the bar for execution.

The positive side is the order book. Rheinmetall’s backlog reached 73 billion EUR at the end of March, up strongly from a year earlier and helped by 5.5 billion EUR from Naval Systems. Backlog is not the same as cash, but it is visibility. For a business that builds complex equipment over long periods, visibility is valuable. A full restaurant is good. A full kitchen still needs chefs.

Europe is moving from speeches to spending

Rheinmetall’s quarter sits inside a much larger European shift. The European Union (EU) is trying to mobilise up to 800 billion EUR for defence under its Readiness 2030 plan. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has also moved the spending debate higher, with allies committing to spend 5% of gross domestic product (GDP) on core defence and broader security-related areas by 2035.

For investors, the important point is not the exact political slogan. It is the direction. European countries are trying to rebuild ammunition stocks, strengthen air and missile defence, modernise vehicles, add drones, improve cyber defence and secure supply chains. The shopping list is long. Sadly, there is no “add all to basket” button.

Rheinmetall is trying to position itself across that list. It has moved into naval systems through Naval Vessels Lürssen and has submitted a non-binding offer for German Naval Yards Kiel. It is also in talks with Middle East customers for up to 10 air-defence systems for delivery in 2026. The company is no longer just a land-vehicles and ammunition story. It wants to be a broader European defence platform.

That broader scope is useful, but it adds complexity. Shipyards, ammunition plants, electronics, skilled labour, explosives, regulation and export approvals all have their own bottlenecks. More demand helps, but production still needs permits, people and parts.

Orders are not earnings

The key investor lesson is simple: defence is becoming more attractive strategically, but the business model is not magic. Governments place orders. Companies invest in capacity. Suppliers scale up. Products get delivered. Cash arrives later. Sometimes much later.

That makes Rheinmetall a useful case study for the whole sector. A large backlog supports future sales, but margins decide how much profit comes through. Working capital, meaning cash tied up in inventory and receivables, can rise when companies build ahead of delivery. Rheinmetall’s operating free cash flow was negative in the quarter, partly because inventory rose to support future growth.

This is why investors should look beyond order headlines. The useful questions are practical. Can the company deliver on time? Are margins improving or being squeezed by labour and material costs? Is cash flow following profit? Are budgets turning into signed contracts? In defence, the battle for returns is often fought in procurement offices and production halls, not only on the front page.

Risks: the boom still has brakes

The first risk is execution. Rheinmetall’s guidance depends on a strong catch-up in the coming quarters. Early warning signs would include further delivery delays, slower call-offs from governments, weaker margins or another rise in cash tied up in inventories.

The second risk is politics. Defence spending is rising, but governments still face budget pressures. If growth slows, debt concerns rise or elections change priorities, some programmes could be delayed. Defence is strategic, but it still needs parliamentary approval. Democracy has many strengths. Speed is not always one of them.

The third risk is technology. Recent conflicts have increased demand for drones, air defence, missiles, electronic warfare and ammunition. Traditional platforms like tanks and armoured vehicles still matter, but investors should watch whether future budgets keep shifting toward faster, cheaper and more digital systems.

Investor playbook

Separate defence-policy momentum from company execution. Bigger budgets only matter when they become deliveries.
Compare backlog growth with margins and cash flow. Orders are useful, but cash pays the bills.
Think across the supply chain: ammunition, sensors, cyber, shipyards, vehicles, logistics and power infrastructure.
Keep valuation discipline. A good theme can still become expensive when everyone sees it.

The factory floor has the final word

Rheinmetall’s quarter is a useful reminder that Europe’s defence story has entered a new phase. The easy part was recognising that Europe needs to spend more. The harder part is building the factories, ships, shells, systems and supply chains that turn policy into readiness.

Rheinmetall has the backlog, market position and strategic relevance to remain central to that story. It also has the execution burden that comes with being central. For long-term investors, the lesson is balanced: Europe’s defence cycle looks structural, but returns will depend on delivery. In this market, the order book opens the door. The factory floor decides who walks through it.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles Quarterly earnings UKMustRead

AMD just made the AI trade harder to ignore

Wed, 06 May 2026 08:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

AMD’s results show artificial intelligence demand is spreading beyond Nvidia.
Intel and Micron are rising for different reasons, but the same AI supply chain sits underneath.
Investors should watch real orders, margins and bottlenecks, not only valuation headlines.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is no longer just a story about clever chatbots answering emails with suspicious confidence. It is becoming a story about factories, memory chips, servers, power, data centres and supply chains. In other words, the digital revolution has developed a very physical appetite.

On 5 May 2026, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), the chip company best known as Nvidia’s main challenger in AI processors, reported first-quarter revenue of 10.3 billion USD, up 38% from a year earlier. Its data centre revenue rose 57% to 5.8 billion USD, and the company guided second-quarter revenue to about 11.2 billion USD, above market expectations, as compiled by Bloomberg.

AMD closed at 355.26 USD on 5 May 2026, up 4%, before rising more than 16% after hours. The market reaction was simple: investors saw another sign that AI spending is broadening.

This matters because one of the biggest questions in markets is whether AI remains a one-stock, one-supplier story, or becomes a full industry cycle. AMD, Intel and Micron now suggest the answer may be closer to the second option.

The AI trade is moving from heroes to plumbing

Nvidia remains the clear leader in graphics processing units, the specialised chips used to train and run AI systems. Its shares have eased slightly from recent highs, but the bigger point is that investors are now searching for the rest of the AI supply chain.

AMD is important because it gives large cloud customers an alternative. That does not mean it replaces Nvidia. It means the market may be big enough for more than one serious supplier. When demand is enormous, customers rarely enjoy depending on one vendor. Even in chips, nobody likes a single point of failure. It makes procurement teams sweat through expensive shirts.

AMD also benefits from central processing units (CPUs), the general-purpose chips that sit at the heart of servers. As AI moves from model training to daily use, known as inference, companies need more balanced systems. The AI brain needs accelerators, but it also needs memory, networking and ordinary server processors to keep the machine running.

That is why AMD’s numbers landed well. The story is not only that AI chips are selling. It is that AI systems are becoming larger, more complex and more distributed across the data centre.

Intel and Micron show the bottleneck story

Intel is a different case from AMD. AMD is gaining from clear demand in AI servers. Intel is more of a turnaround story, and a complicated one. It has struggled for years with execution, manufacturing delays and lost market share. But recent reports that Apple is exploring chip manufacturing talks with Intel show why investors are giving the company another look.

The key word is manufacturing. Intel wants to become a larger foundry, meaning a company that makes chips designed by others. That matters because chip supply is becoming strategic. Large technology companies and governments do not want the world’s most important chips to depend on too few factories in too few places. If more companies want secure, local and diversified chip production, Intel could regain relevance. Could is doing a lot of work in that sentence. The market is watching optionality, not proof.

Micron tells the same story from another angle. Micron makes memory chips, which store and move data inside devices and servers. Memory has traditionally been a boom-bust business. When supply is tight, prices rise. When too many chips are produced, prices fall quickly. It is not a business for the faint-hearted, or for anyone who likes straight lines.

AI may not remove that cycle, but it could make demand more durable. Advanced AI servers need large amounts of high-performance memory because models must move and process huge volumes of data. The more AI shifts from experiments to real workloads, the more memory becomes a toll booth on the road.

This is the common thread. AMD sells more compute. Intel may regain relevance in manufacturing. Micron benefits from memory scarcity. Nvidia remains the giant everyone measures against. The AI story is spreading from the front page to the warehouse.

The private-market signal is getting louder

The same pattern appears in private markets. Anthropic, the company behind Claude, is reportedly weighing a funding round that could value it at more than 900 billion USD. OpenAI said on 31 March 2026 that it had raised 122 billion USD at a post-money valuation of 852 billion USD.

Those numbers are large enough to make a calculator pause for personal reflection. But the useful point is not the exact valuation. It is the direction of travel. AI firms need vast amounts of computing power, and investors are trying to own the companies that may turn that compute into revenue.

Anthropic also launched 10 AI agents for financial services on 5 May 2026. These tools aim to help with tasks such as pitchbooks, statement reviews and compliance checks. That matters because AI demand is shifting from experiments to daily workflows. If customers use AI to do real work, infrastructure demand becomes less theoretical.

Risks: the bill still arrives

The main risk is that expectations run faster than revenue. AI infrastructure spending is huge, but not every dollar spent on chips will become a dollar of profit for the buyer. Investors should watch whether large cloud companies keep spending, or start slowing orders after heavy build-outs.

A second risk is supply pressure. Memory shortages help Micron today, but they can hurt personal computer demand and raise costs for others. Bottlenecks are good for the seller, until they become bad for the system.

A third risk is valuation. When companies rise quickly, the market often starts pricing tomorrow’s success as if it arrived yesterday. Early warning signs include weaker guidance, falling margins, customer delays, rising inventories and softer language around AI orders.

Investor playbook

Follow the supply chain, not only the most famous stock.
Separate confirmed orders from exciting product roadmaps.
Watch margins, because revenue without profit is only expensive exercise.
Keep position sizes linked to uncertainty, especially after sharp rallies.

A bigger machine, not a magic machine

AMD’s earnings matter because they turn the AI story from a narrow winner-takes-most trade into a broader industrial question. The next phase is about who supplies the chips, memory, servers, factories and software that make AI useful at scale. Nvidia still leads. AMD is gaining credibility. Intel is trying to re-enter the conversation. Micron shows that memory may be one of the least glamorous, most important parts of the stack. For long-term investors, the lesson is balanced: AI may be a durable growth theme, but durable does not mean smooth. Even the smartest machine still needs parts, power and patience.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles Quarterly earnings UKMustRead

Asia Market Quick Take – 06 May, 2026

Wed, 06 May 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 6 May, 2026

Key points:

Macro: US concludes offensive operations against Iran
Equities: Intel surges 13% on Apple partnership; AMD +16% in after-hours on strong server chip sales
FX: AUD gains on RBA hikes and pause signal; yen weak as USDJPY climbs
Commodities: Oil down again; WTI near $100; cocoa near 3‑month high
Fixed income: US long bonds rebounded, with the 30‑year yield slipping back below 5%

------------------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

Trump signals progress toward a final Iran deal, saying the US will briefly pause efforts to move ships through the Strait of Hormuz, while keeping the naval blockade in place. Washington is shifting focus to reopening the strait amid foreign pressure and rising domestic opposition to the war, but US–Iran talks remain deadlocked as Tehran insists negotiations depend on lifting the US naval blockade.
The ISM Services PMI slipped to 53.6 in April 2026 from 54, roughly in line with expectations and still above last year’s average. Activity rose to 55.9 as firms worked through backlogs while new orders fell to 53.5. Employment increased but stayed below 50. Prices jumped to 70.7, the highest since 2022, on higher energy, metals, freight, and tariff-driven aluminum and lumber costs.
US job openings slipped by 56,000 to 6.87 million in March 2026, above expectations. Openings fell in professional and business services but rose in finance and insurance, and declined in most regions except the Northeast. Hires rose to 5.6 million, while separations held near 5.4 million, with quits and layoffs little changed.
Australia’s Ai Group manufacturing index ticked up 0.7 points to -27.9 in April 2026 but remained deeply contractionary, as firms struggled with rising input costs they could not fully pass through, export disruptions, and production cuts. Minerals and metals hit a record low on weak exports and shortages, while food and beverage producers saw margins squeezed by higher costs and limited pricing power.
The RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index slipped to 42.6 in May 2026 from 42.8, its lowest since June 2024 and below 50 for a ninth month. The Six-Month Economic Outlook fell to 37.8, while the Personal Financial Outlook was steady at 50.3 and Confidence in Federal Economic Policies held at 39.8.

Equities:

US - US equity markets closed at record highs on Tuesday. The S&P 500 Index rose 0.8% to 7,259.22, the Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.3%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.7%. Intel surged 13% to reach a market capitalization of $547 billion, surpassing Oracle, on enthusiasm over a reported Apple partnership. Micron Technology soared approximately 11% after an IDC report suggested the memory market could break from historical cyclical patterns. Super Micro Computer jumped in extended trading after reporting improved margins and strong profit guidance while Shopify fell 15% on weaker than expected revenue guidance. In after-hours trading, Advanced Micro Devices rose 16.5% following strong quarterly results. PayPal and Palantir fell despite upbeat earnings, with analysts citing disappointing guidance and lagging international commercial business respectively.
EU - European stocks rebounded on Tuesday with the Stoxx 600 gaining 0.7% as resilient earnings helped temper Middle East concerns. Anheuser-Busch InBev rallied 9%, the most since 2021, after posting its first volume expansion since 2023 driven by demand for Michelob and Corona. The DAX rose 1.7% to 24,401.70, its largest gain since April 17, with Infineon Technologies climbing 6.5%. HSBC Holdings fell 5.9%, contributing the most to index declines. UniCredit jumped 5.9% after reporting record quarterly profits. The FTSE 100 fell 1.4% to 10,219.11, its largest loss since March 20, weighed down by HSBC and Entain, which dropped 6.5%. The Swiss Market Index rose 0.4%, while the OMX Stockholm 30 Index gained 1.2%.
Asia - Asian equities retreated from record highs on Tuesday amid holiday-thinned trade as renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz rattled investors. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 0.6%, with markets in Japan, South Korea, and mainland China closed for holidays. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index finished down 0.8% as traders weighed Middle East developments and eschewed tech issues. Singapore's Straits Times Index fell 0.1% to 4,920.61, mirroring regional losses despite upbeat retail data showing total retail sales rose 4.8% year-on-year in March. Looking ahead to Wednesday's session, an overnight jump of more than 4% for the SOX semiconductor index sets up a strong return for the Kospi after Tuesday's holiday, with Samsung Electronics ADRs in London jumping more than 8% after reports of exploratory discussions with Apple about producing processors in the US. SK Square surged 20% and SKC Co jumped 15% to a 14-month high.

Earnings this week:

Wednesday: Arm, Disney, Novo Nordisk, Uber, Lyft, Coherent
Thursday: UOB, Block, Shell, Gilead Sciences, Airbnb, Expedia, McDonald, Cloudflare, Coinbase, IREN
Friday: Toyota, Sony, NTT, OCBC, Japan Tobacco, Macquarie, Commerzbank

FX:

USD was little changed on Tuesday as the US downplayed the risk of wider conflict with Iran, keeping the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index little changed. US services growth slowed, with the ISM index easing to a five-month low of 53.6 in April amid cooler orders and still-elevated input costs.
In G-10 FX, the JPY lagged as USDJPY rose 0.4% to 157.88, its third straight gain.
AUDUSD climbed 0.2% to 0.7183, near its highest since 2022, after the RBA’s third consecutive rate hike and a signal to pause.
GBPUSD inched up 0.1% to 1.3540 despite UK long-term borrowing costs hitting a 28-year high amid political and energy concerns.
EURUSD was just below 1.17, while USDCHF dipped 0.1% to 0.7831 as Swiss inflation hit a 16-month high on higher energy costs.

Commodities:

Oil fell for a second day with WTI dropping toward $100 a barrel after sliding 3.9% on Tuesday, while Brent closed near $110. WTI fell 2.5% after Trump announced the pause of Project Freedom. Saudi Arabia cut the price of its main oil grade for Asia next month from a record-high in May, though it remained near historic levels.
Comex copper settled 2.55% higher at $5.9430 per pound, the largest one-day gain since April 8, as the market digests conflicting signals between Middle East tensions and upbeat factory data in China.
Cocoa prices approached a three-month high, with New York cocoa futures rising 2.7% to $3,987 after briefly topping $4,000, on concerns around the impact of an El Nino weather system on global supply and irregular rainfall in Ivory Coast weighing on crop expectations.

Fixed income:

US long bonds rebounded with the 30-year yield falling as much as four basis points to 4.98%, back below 5%, as investors looked to lock in long-term interest rates trading around multi-year highs. The 10-year Treasury yield was at 4.4%, notably higher than roughly two months ago at 3.94%. Washington is now spending roughly $1.22 trillion a year servicing its debt, equivalent to over 4% of GDP.
Most major US bond dealers expect the Treasury Department to begin laying the groundwork this week for a seemingly inevitable round of increases in Treasury auctions at some point in the next year, though auction sizes are expected to remain unchanged for the May-to-July quarter.
The US high-yield primary market saw two issuers selling a combined $1.75 billion of new bonds, with six more borrowers expected to raise capital later this week. The average US high-yield corporate bond spread is just 17 basis points above a multi-decade low, while yield-to-worst has climbed 28 basis points over the past 11 days from its April low of 6.75%.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

CSG’s short-seller shock: the lesson beyond one falling share price

Tue, 05 May 2026 13:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

CSG shares fell sharply after Hunterbrook questioned its business model and production capacity.
The market reaction shows how quickly confidence can break when a growth story is challenged.
For investors, the lesson is simple: demand beats headlines, but evidence beats both.

CSG (Czechoslovak Group) is a Czech defence company listed in Amsterdam. It makes and sells ammunition, military vehicles, air traffic control systems and other defence equipment. In simple terms, it sits in one of the market’s hottest areas: Europe’s rearmament.

That heat cooled fast on 4 May 2026. CSG shares closed at 16.00 EUR, down about 13%, after Hunterbrook Capital published a short-seller report questioning the company’s production capacity, business model and disclosures. A short seller is an investor betting that a share price will fall.

CSG strongly rejected the allegations. The company said the report was inaccurate, selective and misleading, and stood by its initial public offering documents and disclosures. The bigger story is not only CSG. It is about what happens when a popular investment theme meets a hard question: is the company really what investors think it is?

The market sold the story, not just the stock

CSG came to market during a powerful defence boom. European governments are spending more after years of underinvestment, and ammunition has become a strategic priority after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. That gave CSG a simple and attractive story: Europe needs more shells, CSG can supply them.

Hunterbrook’s report challenged the heart of that story. It argued that CSG may rely more on reselling or refurbishing ammunition than investors had understood, rather than mainly producing it in-house. That matters because markets value manufacturers and traders differently.

A manufacturer with scarce capacity can look like a bottleneck business. A trader can still be useful, but it may have thinner margins, more supplier dependence and less control. Same sector, different animal. Investors do not like discovering they may have bought a horse and found a very energetic donkey.

CSG says this interpretation misunderstands its model. It says production takes place across a distributed network of facilities and that its own-production capacity reached about 630,000 rounds in 2025. It also expects own production to rise by roughly 20 percent in 2026 and targets 1.1 million rounds over the medium term.

Defence demand is real, but quality still matters

The defence theme remains strong. Europe needs to rebuild ammunition stocks, modernise equipment and reduce reliance on non-European suppliers. That supports long-term demand for companies with credible capacity, strong execution and clean governance.

But a strong theme does not protect every stock equally. When investors buy a fast-growing defence company, they are not only buying demand. They are buying trust in management, contract quality, production claims, debt levels and disclosure.

This is why the CSG case matters beyond one company. It reminds investors that defence stocks can still carry normal company risks. Factories can be delayed. Framework agreements can be mistaken for firm orders. Acquisitions can add complexity. Founder control can be positive when aligned, but it also requires careful governance checks.

CSG also clarified that a 58 billion EUR Slovak ammunition framework is potential value over seven years, not a committed order book. That distinction is important. A framework is like being on the approved supplier list for a very large wedding. It does not mean the cake has already been ordered.

What investors can watch next

The near-term test is CSG’s next update. The company said it will provide more detail with its first-quarter results on 20 May 2026. Investors should watch whether management gives clear, measurable answers on production, recommissioning, order conversion and cash flow.

The main risks are now credibility, complexity and cycle risk. Credibility risk means investors may require more proof before trusting guidance. Complexity risk comes from acquisitions, related-party questions and cross-border production networks. Cycle risk is the possibility that ammunition demand remains strong, but not strong enough to justify every valuation in the sector.

Useful early warning signs include vague disclosure, repeated changes in production language, rising debt without matching cash generation, and large frameworks that do not turn into firm orders.

Investor playbook

Separate theme strength from company quality. A good industry does not make every stock good.
Compare order books, frameworks and actual deliveries. They are not the same thing.
Watch cash flow, not only revenue growth. Cash is harder to flatter.
Keep position size linked to confidence, not excitement.

The shell count matters

CSG’s sell-off is a reminder that markets can love a story on Monday and ask for receipts by Tuesday. The defence boom is not imaginary. Europe does need more ammunition, vehicles and industrial capacity. But long-term investors should still ask basic questions: who makes the product, who owns the capacity, who controls the supply chain, and how much of the revenue is already secured? In hot sectors, simple questions become more valuable, not less. CSG may yet prove its case, but the lesson is already clear: in investing, even ammunition stories need ammunition.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles

One Product vs. Many: The Difference Shows

Tue, 05 May 2026 10:01:00 Z

One Product vs. Many: The Difference Shows

Why Spreading Risk Across Multiple Asset Types Can Matter for Investors

For many investors, investing often starts with a single product type. We tend to invest in things we already know, and for many people, that will be stocks. That’s a natural place to begin. But over time, market ups and downs can highlight an important question: What happens when everything you own moves in the same direction at the same time?

One way investors try to manage this challenge is by spreading risk across multiple asset types. This concept is often referred to as multi-asset or multi-product investing. Recent data from Saxo’s own client base offers useful insight into how this approach has played out in practice.

What Saxo’s Client Data Shows

You have most likely already heard about diversification and the importance of a diversified portfolio, so let’s compare the performance of single-asset vs. multi-asset portfolios. Looking at five years of data from Saxo’s clients, a clear pattern emerges:
Clients who invested across multiple product types tended, on average, to experience more stable and often stronger outcomes than those who focused on a single product type.

In this context:

Single-product investors are clients who invest in just one type of product within their portfolio (for example, only stocks).
Multi-product investors, also referred to as multi-asset investors, are clients who invest across multiple product types (for example, a combination of stocks, ETFs, or other instruments).

Performance is measured as profit or loss over the year relative to the investor’s average total assets, providing a consistent basis for comparison.

A Smoother Ride Through Different Market Conditions

The differences become particularly visible during challenging market periods. In 2022, markets were difficult across the globe. Saxo’s data shows that:

Single-asset investors experienced a deeper average decline.
Multi-asset investors also faced losses, but the drawdown was meaningfully smaller.

This highlights an important point for less experienced investors:
when markets fall sharply, having exposure to more than one type of asset can help reduce the impact of extreme movements.

Participation When Markets Recover

In more positive market years, the data shows that multi-asset investors did not “miss out” on recovery phases.

In 2023, 2024, and 2025, multi-product investors, on average, achieved higher annual performance figures than single-product investors.
This suggests that diversification doesn’t necessarily mean giving up growth. A diversified portfolio can still allow participation when markets move upward, while helping manage downside risk.

Why This Matters for Investors

For investors who are not monitoring markets every day or adjusting positions frequently, diversification can play an important role in risk management rather than return maximisation.

Based on Saxo’s client data, spreading investments across different product types may help:

Reduce the severity of losses in difficult market environments
Smooth overall portfolio performance from year to year
Lower the emotional stress that can come from large swings in portfolio value

This can be especially relevant for retail investors with limited market experience, where sharp losses may lead to emotional decision-making at the wrong time.

What multi-asset investing is - and isn’t

It’s important to be clear about what this data does not imply.

Diversification does not eliminate risk
Losses can still occur, even in diversified portfolios
Past outcomes do not guarantee future results

What the data does show is that, historically, Saxo clients who spread their investments across multiple product types tended to experience more resilient outcomes over time, compared to those concentrated in a single product.

In Summary

Saxo’s client data over the past five years suggests that:

Investing across multiple product types has historically been associated with more stable and often stronger outcomes
Diversification may help soften the impact of difficult market years
A multi-asset approach can support long-term investing by managing risk rather than relying on a single market outcome

For retail investors, understanding how different assets behave — and why spreading risk can matter — is a key step toward building confidence in navigating financial markets.

This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.

The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.

Topics: Macro Highlighted articles Equity Trading Macro ETF Stocks

Palantir just raised the bar. Investors still checked the price tag

Tue, 05 May 2026 08:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Palantir’s growth is accelerating, but the stock already carries very high expectations.
The results support the case that artificial intelligence software can generate real cash flow.
For investors, the lesson is process: separate business quality from share-price excitement.

Palantir has become one of the market’s favourite Rorschach tests. Bulls see a rare artificial intelligence (AI) software company turning hype into revenue. Sceptics see a great business wrapped in a very expensive stock. Both can be partly right, which is annoying but useful.

On 4 May 2026, Palantir reported first-quarter revenue of 1.63 billion USD, up 85% from a year earlier and above the 1.54 billion USD expected by Bloomberg consensus. The company also raised its full-year revenue outlook to between 7.65 billion USD and 7.66 billion USD, ahead of the previous guidance. Yet the stock was still down more than 2%, a useful reminder that strong results do not always trigger strong share-price reactions when expectations are already very high.

Palantir builds software that helps governments and companies bring messy data together, analyse it and make decisions faster. In plain English, it sells digital command rooms. The customers can be armies, intelligence agencies, hospitals, factories or banks. The work is not simple dashboard decoration. This is software that tries to sit inside the operating system of an organisation.

A strong quarter, but not a free lunch

The headline numbers were strong. United States (US) revenue grew 104% from a year earlier. US commercial revenue rose 133% to 595 million USD, while US government revenue rose 84% to 687 million USD. Adjusted free cash flow was 925 million USD, which means cash left after running the business and investing in long-term needs.

That matters because many investors worry that AI software companies may be long on demos and short on profits. Palantir’s answer was simple: here are the receipts. Revenue is growing fast, margins are high, and the company raised its outlook. In a software market worried that AI might eat old business models, Palantir showed that some companies may feed the machine rather than become lunch.

Still, the share-price reaction was muted. That is not strange. The market had already placed Palantir on a very tall chair. When expectations are extreme, even excellent results can look merely excellent. Luxury problem, but still a problem.

Why the market did not throw confetti

The first reason is valuation. Palantir is still priced like a company that must keep growing quickly for a long time. A high price-to-sales ratio means investors pay a large stock-market value for each dollar of company revenue. That can work when growth keeps surprising. It becomes uncomfortable when growth slows, competition rises, or margins slip.

The second reason is mix. The company’s US government business was stronger than expected, helped by defence and national-security demand. That is a powerful growth engine, especially as governments spend more on data, AI and modern warfare. But it also makes the story politically sensitive. Some investors like the durability of government contracts. Others worry about headline risk, regulation and ethical debate.

The third reason is commercial momentum. US commercial revenue is growing very fast, but it slightly missed some expectations. That sounds odd, because growing 133% is not exactly a quiet Tuesday. But high-growth stocks are judged against high-growth hopes. When a company trades at a premium, investors do not just ask whether the business is good. They ask whether it is better than the already-good story in the price.

The bigger software message

Palantir’s results matter beyond Palantir. The software sector is facing a difficult question: does AI make software companies more valuable, or does it make their products easier to copy?

Palantir argues for the first answer. Its strength is not only the model, but the messy integration work around it. Companies do not just need clever AI. They need AI connected to real data, permissions, workflows and decisions. That is the boring plumbing that keeps the shiny kitchen from flooding.

This has broader implications. The winners in AI software may be less about who has the best demo and more about who becomes hard to remove. If a system helps run procurement, logistics, defence planning or fraud detection, switching away is painful. That can create durability.

But it also raises the bar for everyone else. Traditional software companies need to show that AI adds real value, not just a button with sparkle. Investors should watch whether customers pay more, sign longer contracts and expand usage. In this market, “we added AI” is no longer a strategy. It is table stakes.

Risks to watch

The first risk is valuation fatigue. If growth slows, even slightly, a richly valued stock can move sharply. Early warning signs include weaker guidance, lower deal activity or management talking more about long-term vision than current demand.

The second risk is competition. Large technology companies and AI model providers are moving fast. If customers can build similar tools more cheaply, Palantir’s pricing power could be tested.

The third risk is political and ethical scrutiny. Defence, surveillance and immigration-related work can bring stable revenue, but also public pressure. Investors should watch contract wins, but also any signs of customer pushback, legal challenges or reputational damage.

Investor playbook

Separate business quality from share valuation. A good company is not always a good entry price.
Watch cash flow, not only revenue. Real cash is harder to narrate into existence.
Track customer mix. Government demand is durable, but political risk comes attached.
Compare AI promises with paid adoption. Contracts matter more than conference-stage poetry.

The command-room lesson

Palantir’s quarter shows why the company divides opinion. It is producing the kind of growth, cash flow and strategic relevance that many AI software firms would happily frame and hang in reception. But the stock also carries a price that leaves little room for average behaviour.

For long-term investors, the useful lesson is not to cheer or dismiss the company. It is to ask a better question: where is AI turning from experiment into essential workflow? Palantir’s answer is powerful, but the market’s reply is equally important. Even in artificial intelligence, the oldest investing rule survives: the story matters, but the price still votes.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles Quarterly earnings

Asia Market Quick Take – 5 May, 2026

Tue, 05 May 2026 01:00:00 Z

Key points:

Macro: US and Iran launch attacks in Strait of Hormuz
Equities: Stocks fell on attacks; Palantir reported fastest growth since 2020
FX: JPY weakens near 157 against USD despite intervention and bullish options
Commodities: Brent crude surged 5.8% to $114.44, the highest close since June 2022
Fixed income: 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.03%, highest since July

------------------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

US and Iran exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz, undermining a four-week ceasefire. US forces said they repelled Iranian attacks while escorting two US-flagged ships, and the UAE reported intercepting missiles and a fire at its Fujairah oil terminal. Despite US plans to restore shipping, security risks may keep the route closed until a US–Iran deal, sustaining concern over energy prices.
Australia’s services PMI was revised up to 50.7 in April from 50.3 and 46.3 in March, signaling modest growth. Activity and jobs increased, but domestic demand and new orders fell amid higher fuel costs from the Middle East war. Export orders recovered slightly. Input costs and selling prices rose at their fastest pace since 2022 and early 2023 respectively, while business sentiment stayed muted.
US factory orders rose 1.5% m/m in March 2026, beating the 0.5% forecast after a 0.3% gain in February. Durable orders were up 0.8%, led by a 3.6% jump in computers and electronics on strong AI and data-center demand, and higher transport equipment. Nondurable orders rose 2.1%, the highest since October 2022. Orders ex-transport were up 1.6%, ex-defense 0.9%.

Equities:

US: The S&P 500 retreated 0.4% to 7,200.8 from record highs as oil prices jumped amid renewed US-Iran tensions. The Nasdaq fell 0.2% to 25,067.8, while the Dow Jones dropped 1.1% to 48,941.9. All sectors except energy were in the red, led by materials. eBay shares gained 5.6% after GameStop announced a surprise $56 billion takeover bid for the online auction company, while GameStop shares declined 7.5%. Apple contributed the most to the S&P 500 decline, decreasing 1.2%, while United Parcel Service had the largest drop, falling 10.5%. In after-hours trading, Advanced Energy shares fell 9.1% after reporting first-quarter results. Palantir fell 2.7% even after raising FY revenue outlook to $7.65b-$7.66b (vs $7.19b prior) while revenue grew 85%, fastest since 2020. Grab holdings+2% after beatingQ1 earnings with revenue growing 24% while maintaining sales outlook for 2026. Pinterest rose 15% after raising Q2 sales outlook and growing 18% in Q1.
EU: European stocks fell as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz pushed up oil prices and President Trump's higher tariffs on car imports from the region weighed on auto stocks. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 1% to 605.51, its biggest loss since April 7. The Euro Stoxx 50 Index dropped 2% to 5,763.61, its largest one-day percentage decline since March 20. Germany's DAX fell 1.2% to 23,991.27, while the Swiss Market Index declined 1% to 13,003.33. ASML contributed the most to the Stoxx 600 decline, decreasing 2.9%, while CSG had the largest drop, falling 13.1%. Trading was more muted than usual, with the London Stock Exchange closed for the early May bank holiday.
Asia: Asian stocks rallied to record highs led by technology shares, with South Korea's Kospi surging 5.1% to 6,936.99, hitting a fresh all-time high as semiconductor giants Samsung Electronics rose 5.4% and SK Hynix jumped 12.5%. Taiwan's TWSE Index rose 4.6% to a new record high, led by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., which closed 6.6% higher, notching its largest gain in more than a year. Hong Kong stocks also finished in the green, while markets in Japan, mainland China, and Thailand remained closed for holidays. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index jumped as much as 2.3%, the most since April 8, before paring some gains.

Earnings this week:

Tuesday: HSBC, Westpac, AMD, Shopify, PayPal, Pfizer, Lumentum, Strategy
Wednesday: Arm, Disney, Novo Nordisk, Uber, Lyft, Coherent
Thursday: UOB, Block, Shell, Gilead Sciences, Airbnb, Expedia, McDonald, Cloudflare, Coinbase, IREN
Friday: Toyota, Sony, NTT, OCBC, Japan Tobacco, Macquarie, Commerzbank

FX:

USD gained against all major currencies except the Norwegian krone after US–Iran clashes in the Persian Gulf, which also drew in the UAE and briefly pushed Brent crude above $115. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose, though it later pared gains; earlier, it had weakened on Trump’s comments about “very positive” talks with Iran.
JPY weakened to about 157.15 against USD despite ongoing speculation about Japanese intervention, even as options markets turned increasingly bullish on the currency.
EUR fell to $1.1692 while EURGBP edged higher, with an ECB survey showing inflation near 2.7% this year before easing toward target and officials warning of rising recession risks from Middle East supply disruptions.
AUD and NZD reversed earlier gains, AUDUSD fell 0.5% to 0.7168 and NZDUSD dropped 0.5% to 0.5872. RBNZ Monetary Policy Committee member Prasanna Gai said supply shocks such as those in the Strait of Hormuz tend to push up the neutral interest rate.

Commodities:

Brent crude jumped 5.8% to close at $114.44 a barrel, the highest close for the most-traded futures contract since June 2022, while WTI crude rose 3.1% to $105.12 after Iran struck a United Arab Emirates oil port and several ships.
Gold futures fell 2.4% to $4,519.50 an ounce, now down 15% from January highs, as the swift reassessment of the US monetary outlook points to dimming prospects for precious metals despite lingering Iran uncertainty.
Silver futures fell 3.8% to $73.07 an ounce, paring gains for the year to date to around 4%, as firmer real yields and a stronger dollar weighed on precious metals.

Fixed income:

Treasury yields rose across the curve by at least five basis points, with the 30-year yield climbing as high as 5.03%, the highest since July, as traders boosted wagers that the Federal Reserve will have to reverse course and raise interest rates to curb inflation following a surge in oil prices.
Two-year yields, the most sensitive to shifting expectations for Fed policy, climbed as much as 11 basis points to 3.96%, rising nearly 10 basis points last week.
SOFR futures sold off with the March and June 2027 contracts underperforming on heavy volumes as a rate hike premium started to aggressively price into next year.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.
The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

Saxo Market Compass - 4 May 2026

Mon, 04 May 2026 16:49:00 Z

Saxo Weekly Market Compass – 4 May 2026

Markets navigated a dense mix of earnings, central bank decisions, and geopolitical tension, with oil acting as the dominant macro driver throughout the week.

US equities oscillated early before finishing the week firmly higher, with the S&P 500 reaching 7,230 by 1 May, as strong Big Tech earnings – led by Alphabet’s 10% surge – offset macro headwinds from surging oil prices and Meta’s capex-driven 8.6% decline. The VIX moved between 16.99 and 18.81, signalling controlled rather than stressed conditions, while options flow shifted from early-week defensive positioning toward selective accumulation across energy, metals, and individual earnings names.

By week’s end, sentiment stabilised as earnings delivered and oil briefly eased, but underlying uncertainty remains tied to energy markets and policy direction.

Equities

Earnings resilience offsets macro noise, but leadership remains narrow.

US – earnings resilience offsets macro noise: US equities oscillated early in the week before finishing strong, with the S&P 500 moving from 7,138 (28 April) to 7,209 (30 April) and 7,230 (1 May). Big Tech dominated: Alphabet surged 10.0% (30 April) on cloud strength, while Meta dropped 8.6% (30 April) on capex concerns. Nvidia’s earlier record high (27 April) highlighted continued AI momentum, though sentiment briefly softened mid-week.
Europe & Asia – energy pressure vs selective strength: European equities struggled mid-week as oil surged and rate-hike expectations resurfaced, before rebounding into month-end. Local markets showed dispersion, with healthcare and industrials mixed, while Asia remained led by Korea’s AI-driven rally and more uneven performance in China and Japan.

Market pulse: Earnings remain supportive, but leadership is narrow and sensitive to macro inputs.

Looking ahead – equities

Focus shifts from Big Tech to consumer-facing earnings and macro validation. US earnings from Disney, Airbnb, and McDonald’s will test demand resilience, while the US jobs report will determine whether strong growth can sustain current equity levels.

Volatility

Event risk priced, but not feared.

VIX range – controlled conditions: Volatility remained contained despite heavy catalysts. The VIX moved between 18.02 (27 April), 17.83 (28 April), and peaked at 18.81 (29 April) before easing to 16.99 (1 May). Short-term measures spiked around key events but quickly normalised, signalling controlled rather than stressed conditions.
Implied moves and skew: Options pricing implied weekly moves around ±1.0–1.35%, while skew shifted between neutral and defensive, ending the week with a downside bias.

Market pulse: Volatility is stable, but hedging demand remains persistent.

Looking ahead – volatility

The April US jobs report and ongoing oil developments are the next volatility catalysts. Any upside surprise in inflation or labour strength could push implied volatility higher again, particularly in short-dated options.

Options sentiment

Selective upside returns, but hedging remains embedded.

The options market shifted from early-week protection toward more selective accumulation, though conviction never fully broadened. Initial positioning was defensive, with index hedging and sector-level protection dominating, particularly in financials and metals.

That stance evolved into a more balanced setup, with investors expressing views through income strategies, volatility trades, and paired hedges. Energy and metals both transitioned toward cautiously bullish positioning, while equities showed selective upside participation alongside continued protection.

Market pulse: Investors leaned into upside selectively, but maintained protection as conviction remained narrow.

Looking ahead – options sentiment

Options flow will likely remain dispersion-driven, with investors targeting individual earnings names rather than broad index exposure. Watch for increased short-dated activity around consumer earnings and macro releases.

Digital assets

Stable price action, selective institutional flows.

Bitcoin and Ethereum: Crypto markets tracked macro sentiment but showed resilience. Bitcoin traded between USD 75,700 and USD 80,000, while Ethereum held near USD 2,200–2,380. ETF flows were mixed mid-week before turning positive into Friday, reflecting improving sentiment.
Options and altcoins: Options activity remained balanced, combining downside hedging with selective upside positioning, while altcoins followed broader risk trends.

Market pulse: Crypto is constructive, but still dependent on macro direction and liquidity.

Looking ahead – digital assets

ETF flows and macro data will remain key drivers. A stable or softer rates outlook could support further upside, while renewed volatility in equities or yields may quickly feed into crypto positioning.

Fixed income

Yields rise on oil, then stabilise.

US Treasuries: Bond markets reflected the week’s macro tension. US 10-year yields climbed toward 4.43% mid-week on oil-driven inflation concerns, while the 2-year approached 3.95%. By Friday, yields eased slightly as oil corrected and policy expectations stabilised.
European bonds: European yields followed a similar pattern, rising sharply before pulling back into month-end.

Market pulse: Rates are increasingly driven by energy-linked inflation rather than growth expectations.

Looking ahead – fixed income

The US jobs report and Treasury issuance will shape rate expectations. Strong data could reinforce higher-for-longer narratives, while weaker prints may ease pressure on the front end.

Commodities

Oil dominates, reshaping the macro backdrop.

Oil – Strait of Hormuz driver: Oil remained the central driver, with Brent rising toward wartime highs before easing slightly. The Strait of Hormuz disruption tightened supply and drove inflation concerns across markets.
Gold and broader commodities: Gold initially weakened under rising yields but later stabilised as geopolitical risks intensified. Broader commodities posted strong gains in April, led by energy.

Market pulse: Oil continues to dictate inflation expectations and cross-asset behaviour.

Looking ahead – commodities

Any progress on reopening shipping routes will be the key swing factor. A resolution could trigger a sharp pullback in oil and ease inflation fears, while continued disruption would keep upward pressure on prices.

Currencies

Yen volatility and USD strength define the week.

USDJPY – intervention risk: FX markets were dominated by yen volatility and a firm US dollar. USDJPY surged above 160 before dropping sharply below 156 on intervention threats, highlighting extreme positioning.
USD and commodity currencies: The dollar strengthened mid-week on yields and oil before stabilising, while commodity-linked currencies remained supported.

Market pulse: FX is highly reactive to policy divergence and energy dynamics.

Looking ahead – currencies

Yen intervention risk remains elevated, while US data will guide USD direction. Commodity currencies will continue to track oil, making energy markets a key FX driver.

Key takeaways

Equities: Earnings support holds, but leadership remains narrow.
Volatility: Contained, with persistent demand for hedging.
Options: Selective upside with protection still embedded.
Digital assets: Stable, supported by ETF flows and macro tone.
Fixed income: Yields driven by oil and inflation expectations.
Commodities: Oil remains the dominant macro force.
Currencies: Yen volatility and USD direction in focus.

Looking ahead – week of 4 to 8 May 2026

The coming week arrives with oil still elevated, yen intervention risk unresolved, and equities trading near recent highs on the back of narrow earnings-driven leadership. Macro conditions remain fragile beneath the surface, and the data calendar is dense enough to test whether the current equity resilience is justified.

Consumer-facing earnings take centre stage. Disney, Airbnb, and McDonald’s will collectively test whether demand at the consumer level is holding, or beginning to soften under the weight of elevated energy prices and persistent inflation. Meanwhile, the April US jobs report represents the defining macro input of the week – a strong reading would reinforce higher-for-longer rate expectations and pressure the front end of the Treasury curve, while any softness could ease rate anxiety and support risk assets broadly.

Oil remains the wild card. Any signal of progress in reopening the Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes could trigger a sharp reversal in crude, easing inflation fears across fixed income and FX simultaneously. Conversely, continued disruption keeps cross-asset volatility elevated and hedging demand intact.

Calendar highlights (times in GMT)

Mon 4 May – Strait of Hormuz supply developments; options flow into consumer earnings week begins
Tue 5 May – Airbnb Q1 2026 earnings (after close)
Wed 6 May – Walt Disney Q2 2026 earnings (after close); US Treasury auction
Thu 7 May – McDonald’s Q1 2026 earnings; US weekly jobless claims
Fri 8 May – US non-farm payrolls (April); University of Michigan consumer sentiment (preliminary)

Concluding remarks

Markets ended the week resilient, supported by earnings and selective risk-taking, but underlying conditions remain fragile. Oil-driven inflation, central bank uncertainty, and geopolitical risk continue to shape cross-asset behaviour.

The coming week’s labour and consumer data will be critical in determining whether markets can extend gains or face renewed macro pressure.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

The video featured on this page was generated using artificial intelligence. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and reflects an automated interpretation of the accompanying article content.

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Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Highlighted articles Equity Trading Macro ETF

From eBay to SpaceX: the deal machine is warming up

Mon, 04 May 2026 09:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

GameStop’s eBay bid is unusual, but it fits a wider return of big dealmaking.
Companies are buying scale, data, energy, security and attention, not just revenue.
A large initial public offering wave could redirect capital toward the biggest stories.

GameStop offering to buy eBay sounds like a market headline generated after three espressos and a trading forum argument. The deal is unsolicited, ambitious and difficult. GameStop is much smaller than eBay. It would need debt, outside capital and shareholder support. That is quite a shopping basket, even before the checkout page loads.

Still, the bigger point is not whether this specific deal happens. It is that mergers and acquisitions, or M&A, are back in the conversation. When companies start reaching for large deals, they are often telling investors something important: organic growth is harder to find, scale matters more, and management teams are willing to act.

The small buyer with the very large trolley

GameStop is a video game retailer that became famous during the 2021 meme stock boom. Under Cohen, it has closed stores, cut costs and shifted more attention toward higher-margin areas such as trading cards, retro games and collectibles.

eBay is a global online marketplace where buyers and sellers trade goods across categories such as electronics, fashion, car parts and collectibles. Its recent results were solid: first-quarter revenue was 3.1 billion USD, up 19%, while gross merchandise volume, the value of goods sold on the platform, rose 18% to 22.2 billion USD.

That explains the logic behind Cohen’s pitch. GameStop has physical stores and a loyal retail investor following. eBay has marketplace scale, seller tools and a stronger position in collectibles. In theory, GameStop stores could help with authentication, collection and logistics for higher-value items sold through eBay.

In practice, the deal is a mountain. Financing matters. Debt costs matter. Integration matters. Culture matters. And when a smaller company tries to buy a larger one, investors usually ask whether ambition has mistaken itself for arithmetic.

The deal market is no longer sleeping

GameStop and eBay are the loudest story today, but they are not alone. Boston Consulting Group notes that 2025 saw a return of mega-deals, with 39 announced transactions above 10 billion USD, up from 28 in 2024.

The list is telling. Union Pacific agreed to buy Norfolk Southern in a huge US railroad consolidation. Electronic Arts is being taken private by a consortium including Silver Lake and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund. Kimberly-Clark is pursuing Kenvue. Alphabet is buying Wiz to strengthen cloud security. Constellation Energy is buying Calpine to expand in power generation. Palo Alto Networks is buying CyberArk to build a broader cyber security platform for the artificial intelligence era.

The common thread is not random empire building. Companies are buying what they believe they cannot build quickly enough.

Railroads are about network scale. Gaming is about intellectual property and recurring engagement. Data centres are about artificial intelligence infrastructure. Cyber security is about trust, identity and protection as digital systems become more complex. Power generation is about electricity demand, which is suddenly fashionable again after years of being treated like boring plumbing.

Initial public offerings may steal the spotlight

There is another side to the deal cycle: initial public offerings, or IPOs. An IPO is when a private company lists its shares on a stock exchange for public investors.

The potential 2026 pipeline is unusually large. SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, Databricks and Canva are among the names discussed as possible candidates. Some reports suggest SpaceX could seek a valuation above 1 trillion USD, while OpenAI and Anthropic have also attracted very high private-market valuations.

If even a few of these companies list, they could absorb a lot of investor attention and capital. That matters for public markets. Large IPOs can pull money toward the biggest growth stories, especially when the companies are linked to artificial intelligence, space, data or software infrastructure.

For Europe, this creates a harder question. Listing reforms in London, Frankfurt or Paris may help. But investors do not only buy listing rules. They buy stories, scale and relevance. A well-run mid-sized company can still be attractive, but it may struggle for oxygen when global portfolios are being asked to make room for the next artificial intelligence giant.

The risks investors should watch

The first risk is financing. Big deals often look clever in a slide deck, but debt has a way of becoming less charming when interest costs rise. Watch credit spreads, bond market appetite and whether acquirers rely heavily on optimistic synergy targets.

The second risk is regulation. Railroads, media, cyber security, data centres and consumer health all touch sensitive parts of the economy. Regulators may ask whether consolidation helps customers, workers and competition.

The third risk is valuation. A strong company can still be a weak investment if the entry price assumes perfection. This applies to acquisitions and IPOs alike. The early warning sign is simple: investors stop asking “what could this become?” and start asking “what must go right?”

Investor playbook

Treat deal headlines as signals, not instructions. They show where companies see scarcity and opportunity.
Compare the buyer’s balance sheet with the size of the ambition. Financing is part of the strategy.
Watch whether deals buy real assets, loyal customers, data, power or security, not just a louder story.
For IPOs, separate business quality from opening-day excitement. The first price is not always the fair price.

What the deal wave is really telling investors

GameStop’s eBay bid may happen, change shape or fade into the large drawer marked “interesting market theatre”. But the timing matters. Companies are again trying to buy scale, infrastructure and strategic relevance, while private giants wait near the public-market door.

For long-term investors, the useful lesson is not to chase every takeover rumour or IPO whisper. It is to ask what these deals reveal about the economy. Growth is still valuable, attention is scarce, and capital is moving toward companies that look essential. In markets, as in e-commerce, the best item is rarely the loudest one in the basket.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles

Big Oil earnings: Chevron and Exxon beat, but the barrel did not do all the work

Fri, 01 May 2026 12:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Chevron and Exxon beat expectations, helped by higher oil prices and strong core assets.
Cash returns stayed large, but Chevron trimmed buybacks while Exxon held steady.
The lesson for investors is simple: oil helps, but execution still matters.

Chevron and Exxon Mobil reported first-quarter results on 1 May 2026, and the first lesson is that higher oil prices do not automatically produce a clean victory. They help, of course. Oil companies do not complain when the barrel gets more expensive. But this quarter also came with war disruption, cargo delays, accounting timing effects and weaker pockets in refining and chemicals.

Brent crude settled at 114.01 USD on 30 April 2026, down 3.4%, after touching 126.41 USD earlier in the day. That was the highest level since March 2022, driven by worries around the Iran war and disruption near the Strait of Hormuz. Against that backdrop, Chevron and Exxon both beat earnings expectations, but neither result was as simple as “oil up, profits up”.

The market reaction was muted at the time of writing. Investors welcomed the earnings beats, but the response stayed measured as they looked through war disruption, cargo timing effects and weaker refining pockets.

The beat was real, but the route was messy

Exxon and Chevron both beat expectations, but the story was not simply “oil price up, profits up”. Exxon reported adjusted earnings per share of 1.16 USD, ahead of the 0.96 USD Bloomberg consensus, while revenue and other income reached 85.14 billion USD, also ahead of expectations. Production was broadly in line with expectations at 4.59 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, supported by growth in Guyana and the Permian Basin.

Chevron also came in ahead of expectations, with adjusted earnings of 2.8 billion USD, or 1.41 USD per share. Reported earnings were lower, at 2.2 billion USD, but the operating picture was stronger than the headline suggests. Worldwide production rose 15% from last year, while United States production rose 24%, helped by the Hess acquisition, the Gulf of America and the Permian Basin.

The important point for investors is that both companies showed strength in the parts of the business that matter most over time: production growth, large advantaged assets and cash generation. But the quarter also came with a few oil-stained footnotes.

The main complication was what both companies call timing effects. In plain English, these are accounting mismatches between financial contracts and the physical oil or gas cargoes that have not yet completed delivery. The loss appears in the accounts now, while the related physical transaction may show up later. It is the sort of detail that makes energy accounting a niche hobby, and not a particularly social one.

For Exxon, these unfavourable timing effects were 3.9 billion USD. For Chevron, they were around 2.9 billion USD. That helps explain why reported profit looked weaker than the underlying business in some areas. It also explains the measured market reaction: investors liked the earnings beats, but they still had to look through accounting noise, war-related disruption and weaker refining pockets before giving full credit.

Cash return remains the anchor

Big Oil is no longer valued only on how much it can produce. It is also judged on what it gives back to shareholders and how much it reinvests in future production. That makes cash flow the key exam paper.

Exxon generated 2.7 billion USD of free cash flow. Free cash flow means cash left after running the business and investing in long-term assets. Exxon returned 9.2 billion USD to shareholders, including 4.3 billion USD in dividends and 4.9 billion USD in buybacks. It also kept its 2026 buyback plan at 20 billion USD.

Chevron returned 6.0 billion USD to shareholders, with 3.5 billion USD in dividends and 2.5 billion USD in buybacks. That was still a large return, but the buyback was lower than the previous quarter. Some investors may have hoped for an increase given the oil-price surge. Chevron’s answer was more cautious: higher prices help, but one strong quarter does not change the capital-return playbook. In energy, discipline is not glamorous, but it tends to age better than enthusiasm.

That caution matters. Management does not want to raise buybacks based only on a short-term spike in commodity prices. For long-term investors, that is not necessarily bad. A company that treats temporary oil prices as permanent income can end up with a very expensive habit.

Production strength, refining pain

The clearest operational bright spot for both companies was production from advantaged assets. Exxon continues to benefit from Guyana and the Permian Basin. Chevron is getting a visible lift from Hess, which brings exposure to Guyana, and from growth in the United States.

The weak spot was downstream. Downstream means refining, marketing and selling fuels and other products. Chevron’s downstream business posted a loss of 817 million USD, versus a profit of 325 million USD a year earlier. International downstream was especially weak, hurt by lower refined-product margins, timing effects and higher transport costs.

Exxon’s energy products segment also reported an adjusted loss of 556 million USD, compared with a profit of 827 million USD a year earlier. Chemicals were soft too, with adjusted net income down 60% from last year. This matters because integrated oil companies are supposed to have several engines. When oil production is strong but refining and chemicals are weak, the machine still moves, but not every cylinder fires.

Risks

The first risk is geopolitical. Exxon has more Middle East exposure than Chevron, and management said a full second-quarter closure of the Strait of Hormuz would cut upstream production by about 750,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. That is not a footnote. That is a large operational hole.

The second risk is oil-price reversal. A higher crude price supports cash flow, but it can fall quickly if supply routes reopen, demand weakens or traders decide the panic cupboard is overstocked.

The third risk is cost discipline. Higher prices can hide cost inflation, project delays and weaker refining economics. Investors should watch capital spending, production costs, refining margins and whether timing effects really unwind as companies expect.

Investor playbook

Separate reported profit from underlying cash flow. The two can diverge sharply in volatile oil markets.
Watch buyback discipline. Higher crude prices should not automatically mean higher repurchases.
Compare production growth with capital spending. More barrels matter only if returns stay attractive.
Treat energy as a portfolio diversifier, not a one-way bet on geopolitics.

The barrel shouts, cash answers

Chevron and Exxon gave investors a useful reminder: Big Oil is both simpler and more complicated than it looks. Higher crude prices help, but they do not remove operational risk, accounting noise, refining weakness or geopolitical disruption. The better question is not whether oil prices rose this quarter. They did.

The better question is whether management converted a volatile market into durable cash, sensible investment and disciplined shareholder returns. On that test, both companies did enough to reassure the market, but not enough to end the debate. The barrel made the noise. The cash register still gets the final word.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles Quarterly earnings

Apple’s earnings give investors something rare: a boring surprise

Fri, 01 May 2026 06:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Apple beat expectations as iPhone demand, services and China improved together.
The June-quarter outlook was strong, but memory costs and Mac shortages remain pressure points.
The bigger debate is whether Apple can turn artificial intelligence into everyday usefulness.

Apple’s latest earnings were not a revolution. That is partly the point. For a company of Apple’s size, a solid quarter can be more useful than a dramatic one. Investors wanted proof that the core business still has life, that customers are still upgrading, and that the company can move into a new leadership era without dropping the iPhone in the hallway.

Apple reported fiscal second-quarter results after the US market close on 30 April 2026. Revenue rose 17% year on year to 111.2 billion USD, while diluted earnings per share rose 22% to 2.01 USD. The company also guided for June-quarter revenue growth of 14% to 17%, well above market expectations. Apple shares closed at 271.35 USD, then rose 2.4% in after-hours trading as investors welcomed the stronger outlook.

Apple did not need to prove it is the most exciting artificial intelligence story in the market. It needed to prove that its installed base, products and services still behave like a high-quality machine. This quarter did that.

The iPhone still pays the bills

Apple makes consumer electronics and digital services, with the iPhone at the centre of its ecosystem. That ecosystem matters because each device can lead to services, accessories, storage subscriptions, payments, entertainment and future upgrades.

The iPhone remains the main engine. iPhone revenue rose to 57 billion USD, helped by strong demand for the iPhone 17 family. For investors, this matters because the iPhone is not just a product. It is Apple’s front door. Once customers enter, many stay because their photos, apps, payments, music, messages and devices all speak the same language.

That is Apple’s great strength. It does not need every new product cycle to feel like a moon landing. It needs the upgrade cycle to stay healthy enough, and the services layer to keep deepening. This quarter suggests both are still working.

China was also important. Greater China revenue rose to 20.5 billion USD, a strong rebound in a market where Apple has faced tougher local competition. That does not remove the risk, but it shows the brand still has pull when the product cycle is right.

Services are the quiet compounding machine

Services revenue reached 31 billion USD, up from 26.6 billion USD a year earlier. This segment includes the App Store, iCloud, Apple Music, Apple TV, Apple Pay and other subscriptions or digital services.

This is the calmer part of the story. Hardware can be lumpy because people do not buy a new phone every Tuesday, thankfully for household budgets. Services can be more regular because they sit on top of Apple’s huge installed base of active devices.

For long-term investors, that mix matters. A company that sells one-off products can grow, but its profits may swing with each product cycle. A company that also earns repeat service revenue can become more resilient. It is one reason Apple has looked less like a pure hardware company over time and more like a consumer ecosystem with hardware at the gate.

Apple also announced a dividend increase and a new share repurchase authorisation of up to 100 billion USD. Buybacks can support earnings per share by reducing the share count, but they are not magic. They work best when the business keeps producing cash and management stays disciplined on price. Capital allocation remains one of Apple’s quiet strengths under Tim Cook.

The next boss inherits a powerful machine, not a finished one

The quarter comes just weeks after Apple said Tim Cook will become executive chairman and John Ternus, currently senior vice president of hardware engineering, will become chief executive officer on 1 September 2026. That gives the results a larger meaning. This was not only an earnings report. It was an early read on what Ternus inherits.

The machine is strong, but it is not challenge-free. Apple warned that memory-chip costs will rise significantly this quarter. Memory chips help devices store and process data, and the recent shortage has pushed costs higher across the technology sector. Apple also said Mac shortages may last several months, especially for products such as the Mac mini, Mac Studio and MacBook Neo.

That creates a useful investor lesson. Strong demand is good, but supply constraints can still limit sales and squeeze margins. In plain English, customers may want the product, but Apple still needs enough parts to put it in a box.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the other major question. Apple has lagged some rivals in flashy AI features, and investors are waiting to see whether it can make AI useful inside everyday devices. Apple’s advantage is that it controls the hardware, software and services together. Its challenge is that the market now wants proof, not poetry.

Risks: watch costs, China and the AI timetable

The main near-term risk is margin pressure from higher memory costs and supply shortages. If Apple cannot offset those costs with pricing, product mix or efficiency, profits could feel the pinch.

China remains another key watch point. The rebound was encouraging, but local competition and political tension can change quickly. Investors should monitor whether demand remains strong after the initial iPhone 17 cycle.

The third risk is AI execution. Apple does not need to win the press conference. It needs to improve the user experience. Delays to Siri or weak adoption of AI features would keep the debate alive.

Investor playbook

Watch services growth. It shows whether Apple’s ecosystem keeps deepening beyond device sales.
Track gross margin. Rising memory costs are the clearest pressure point for the next quarter.
Follow China revenue. It is an early signal for global iPhone demand and competitive strength.
Judge AI by usefulness, not slogans. The key test is whether customers notice better daily features.

A steady quarter, with a harder exam ahead

Apple’s quarter gave investors a useful answer, but not the final one. The old engine still runs: iPhone demand is strong, services keep growing, China improved, and cash generation remains powerful. That is why the after-hours reaction was positive. But the next chapter will be harder.

Apple now has to manage higher component costs, supply shortages, a leadership handover and the market’s impatience around artificial intelligence. The company does not need to become the loudest AI storyteller. It needs to make the technology feel simple, private and useful. In true Apple fashion, the best result would be when the hard work disappears into the product.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles Quarterly earnings

Asia Market Quick Take – 30 April, 2026

Thu, 30 Apr 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 30 April, 2026

Key points:

Macro: Fed holds rates; Trump not lifting blockade till nuclear deal secured
Equities: AMZN, GOOG, MSFT rises after earnings; META sinks on higher capex
FX: Dollar hits mid‑April high as Fed splits; JPY weakens past 160
Commodities: Brent +7% to >$119.50, highest since June 2022
Fixed income: US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.43%, highest in over nine months

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

The Fed left rates unchanged amid growing internal dissent, with four officials opposing the decision. Two-year Treasury yields jumped 11 basis points, the biggest Fed-day move since 2022. Jerome Powell said he will stay on the Board after his chair term ends and remain through the ongoing criminal investigation.
Trump told Axios he won’t lift the naval blockade of Iranian ports until he secures a nuclear deal with Tehran, extending the standoff disrupting energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Japan’s retail sales rose 1.7% YoY in March 2026, beating the 0.8% forecast and rebounding from a 0.1% drop, with autos and other goods leading gains. Month-on-month, sales grew 1.3% after falling 2.0% in February.
The BoC held its policy rate at 2.25% in April 2026, offering no clear guidance amid geopolitical uncertainty. Inflation rose on higher energy prices from Middle East tensions, but broader effects remain limited and expectations anchored. The BoC projects GDP growth of 1.2% in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027.
US durable goods orders rose 0.8% in March 2026 to $318.9 billion, beating the 0.5% forecast and rebounding from a 1.2% drop. Despite war-related energy and shipping disruptions, orders gained across computers and electronics (3.7%), machinery, primary metals, electrical equipment, and transportation.
Germany’s CPI rose to 2.9% YoY in April 2026, up from 2.7% and just below the 3% forecast, driven by a 10.1% jump in energy. Core inflation fell to 2.3%, the lowest since June 2021, and the EU-harmonized rate also hit 2.9%, above the ECB’s 2% target.

Equities:

US: S&P 500 Index ended Wednesday little changed at 7,135.95, as a divided Federal Reserve held rates steady and signaled the war in Iran is clouding the economic outlook. Nasdaq 100 rose 0.6% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%. In after-hours trading, Alphabet shares rose 7.1% after reporting quarterly revenue and profit that beat projections, fuelled by strong growth in its cloud computing business. Meta shares plunged 7% on rising concerns over AI spending after the company raised its full-year capital expenditures outlook to $125 billion to $145 billion. Qualcomm shares jumped over 12% after the company signalled a bottom in China handset demand and pointed to growing traction with a hyperscaler customer. Amazon gained 2.7% after AWS sales grew 28%, beating the estimated 25% increase driven by strong enterprise spending. KLA Corp shares fell 8% in extended trading after the company reported third-quarter results and provided a fourth-quarter outlook.
EU: European stocks closed lower, with the Stoxx 600 Index falling 0.6% on Wednesday. The prospect of a prolonged naval blockade of Iranian ports soured risk sentiment amid mixed earnings results. GSK Plc contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 6.3%, while Konecranes Oyj had the largest drop, falling 13.5%. The FTSE 100 closed down 119.68 points, or 1.2%, at 10,213.11, held back by falls for drugs firms GSK and AstraZeneca. The DAX fell 0.3% to 23,954.56 in Frankfurt, dropping to the lowest closing level since April 13. UBS shares gained after traders helped the Swiss firm beat estimates to keep it on track to lift payouts this year.
Asia: Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 1.7% to close at 26,111.84 on Wednesday, rebounding as policy signals from China's top leadership lifted sentiment alongside improving corporate earnings. Alibaba Group Holding Ltd contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.2%, while China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd had the largest increase, rising 8.9%. South Korea's Kospi Index rose 0.8% to 6,690.90 in Seoul. Samsung chip unit posted a 48x profit surge on AI memory demand, beating estimates. Hyperscaler spend boosts HBM outlook. Op income 53.7t won; group net 47.1t won. Taiwan's Taiex Index fell 0.6% to 39,303.50 in Taipei, with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co contributing the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.6%. Singapore's Straits Times Index (STI) was not specifically mentioned in recent reports. DBS Q1 profit largely in line: net income +1% to S$2.93b (vs S$2.88b est). Group NII -5% while fee income +16%; wealth management fees +25% to S$907m. Shanghai Sunmi Technology jumped 298% at its Hong Kong trading debut after an initial public offering.

Earnings this week:

Thursday: Samsung Electronics Merck, ConocoPhillips, Mastercard, Caterpillar, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Apple, Tokyo Electron, DBS Group
Friday: Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Mitsubishi, Mitsui, Itochu, ANZ, Marubeni

FX:

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed 0.4% to its highest since April 13 after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged but revealed deepening divisions over the policy outlook.
JPY extended its slide beyond 160 against USD to its weakest mark this year at 160.47, the weakest since July 2024, fuelling risk that Japanese officials may step into the market to offer support. The yen later pared some losses to 160.27.
EUR gained an edge over the USD as policymakers at the ECB appeared to have turned more hawkish than their counterparts at the Federal Reserve. Traders now expect the ECB to deliver three-quarter point interest-rate hikes this year.
The yuan extended losses both onshore and offshoAre, ending Wednesday at the lowest level in more than three weeks. USDCNH rose 0.1% to finish the day at 6.8479, while USDCNY gained less than 0.1% to 6.8430.
NOK and CAD outperformed peers amid rising oil prices, as the US signalled no letup of the naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.

Commodities:

Brent crude oil rose more than 7% to above $119.50 a barrel on Wednesday, the highest since June 2022, as signs that flows through the Strait of Hormuz could be at a standstill for a prolonged period heightened concerns over a rapidly shrinking global supply cushion. Front-month ICE Brent crude for June delivery gained $6.77 per barrel, or 6.08%, to settle at $118.03.
Gold held a three-day loss after a divided Federal Reserve kept US interest rates steady and said the war in Iran was clouding the economic outlook. Bullion was near $4,550 an ounce in early trading, having fallen 3.4% over the previous three sessions.
Copper edged lower as investors weighed the ongoing risks that the Iran war poses to global growth against the outlook for demand in top buyer China. Front-month Comex copper for May delivery lost 3.90 cents per pound, or 0.66%, to $5.8785.

Fixed income:

Treasuries slumped after the FOMC policy announcement showed some members did not support the inclusion of an easing bias in the statement announcing it was holding rates steady. Two-year yields rose 11 basis points, the biggest jump on a Fed decision day since 2022. The US Treasury 10-year yield rose 8 basis points to 4.43%, the highest in more than nine months.
Australian bonds slid in early trading, tracking Treasuries after the Federal Reserve kept its policy rate on hold and after oil prices jumped. The yield on Australia's 3-year note jumped 10 basis points to 4.78%, while that on the 10-year bond gained 8 basis points to 5.08%.
Japan's 10-year yield rose 4 basis points to 2.5%, the highest level since 1997. Futures for the bond fell as much as 43 ticks to 129.27 in morning trading. Japanese government bonds are expected to drop, with investor caution mounting ahead of a two-year sale later Thursday.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

Big Tech earnings: Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon put AI spending on trial

Wed, 29 Apr 2026 20:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

AI spending is no longer judged by ambition alone. Investors now want visible payback.
Alphabet had the clearest initial market reward, while Meta faced the toughest reaction.
Cloud and advertising are working, but cash flow pressure is becoming harder to ignore.

Artificial intelligence (AI) has been the market’s favourite growth story. It has also become one of its most expensive hobbies. On 29 April 2026, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon gave investors a fresh look at the same big question: is AI spending turning into revenue, margins and cash flow?

The answer is not a simple yes or no. It is more like: yes, but the receipt is getting longer.

The early market reaction showed that investors are becoming more selective. Alphabet was the only clear initial winner, helped by strong Google Cloud growth, resilient Search and better profitability. Meta had the weakest reaction, despite strong advertising growth, because investors focused on the company’s higher capital expenditure plan. In this AI cycle, good revenue is helpful. Good revenue with controlled spending is better.

The chart below puts the AI spending debate in one simple frame: capital expenditure is rising fast, but most Big Tech firms still generate strong free cash flow. Amazon is the clear exception in 2026, as its investment cycle is expected to push free cash flow negative. That is why investors are asking not only “can they spend?” but “which companies can turn that spending into revenue, margins and cash flow fastest?”

Source: Saxo Bank analysis. The 2026 figures are based on Bloomberg forecasts. Chart generated using ASKB by BloombergAI.

Cloud gives the first answer

Microsoft gave investors one of the cleaner AI payback signals. Revenue came in at 82.89 billion USD, ahead of expectations, while Azure and other cloud services grew 39% in constant currency. Its AI business also passed a 37 billion USD annual revenue run rate, up 123% year-on-year. That is the kind of line investors wanted to see: AI is not only a product demo, it is becoming a business line.

Still, the trade-off is visible. Microsoft said cloud gross margin was pressured by AI infrastructure and AI product usage. In plain English, customers are using the tools, but the tools are not free to run. Chips, servers and power do not accept stock options as payment.

Amazon told a similar story, but with a sharper cash flow warning. Amazon Web Services (AWS), its cloud business, grew 28% in constant currency, its fastest growth in 15 quarters. The company also said its chips business topped a 20 billion USD revenue run rate. That is encouraging for the AI demand story.

But Amazon’s trailing 12-month free cash flow fell to 1.2 billion USD from 25.9 billion USD a year earlier, mainly because property and equipment spending rose sharply, reflecting AI investment. This is the core tension: AWS is accelerating, but the infrastructure bill is absorbing much of the benefit for now.

Advertising still pays the rent

Alphabet and Meta showed that AI is already helping the advertising machine. Alphabet reported revenue of 109.90 billion USD, up 22% year-on-year. Google Search and Other revenue rose 19%, while Google Cloud revenue jumped 63% to 20.03 billion USD. Even better, Google Cloud operating income rose to 6.60 billion USD from 2.18 billion USD a year earlier.

That explains the positive initial stock reaction. Alphabet did not only spend more. It showed where the payoff is appearing: Search remains strong, Cloud is scaling, and AI usage is supporting demand rather than clearly damaging the core business.

Meta also delivered strong numbers. Revenue rose 33% to 56.31 billion USD, advertising revenue rose 33%, and operating margin stayed at 41%. For most companies, that would be a victory lap with a modest sandwich.

But Meta raised its 2026 capital expenditure outlook to 125 to 145 billion USD, from 115 to 135 billion USD. That changed the market conversation. Investors are not saying Meta’s AI strategy is failing. They are saying the spending bar has moved higher again, so the proof also needs to move higher.

The new test: useful growth

For long-term investors, this earnings round is useful because it separates AI excitement from AI economics. The strongest signals are not vague statements about transformation. They are concrete signs: faster cloud growth, better ad performance, stronger operating income and healthy free cash flow.

The infographic below turns the earnings season into a simple checklist. Each company has a different AI test, but the investor question is the same: where should the payoff appear, and which numbers will show whether it is real?

Source: Saxo Bank analysis and in-house framework. For illustrative purposes only.

Risks to watch

The first risk is overbuilding. If data centre capacity grows faster than customer demand, margins could suffer. Watch whether cloud growth keeps pace with capital expenditure.

The second risk is pricing. If AI tools become widely available and similar, customers may resist paying much more for them. Adoption is good. Paid adoption is better.

The third risk is investor patience. These companies can afford large spending plans, but even Big Tech does not get unlimited benefit of the doubt. The market is now asking for receipts, not just roadmaps.

Investor playbook

Watch cloud growth alongside capital expenditure, not in isolation.
Follow free cash flow, especially at Amazon and Meta.
Look for AI comments tied to paid usage, pricing or margins.
Treat one quarter as evidence, not a final verdict.

From promise to payback

This earnings round does not settle the AI debate. It sharpens it. Microsoft and Alphabet showed the clearest early evidence that AI spending is turning into measurable business momentum. Amazon showed strong demand, but also how quickly investment can swallow cash flow. Meta showed that even excellent advertising growth may not satisfy investors when the spending plan gets bigger.

For long-term investors, the lesson is simple: AI still matters, but the market is becoming less impressed by the size of the kitchen and more interested in the meal. Big Tech is cooking. Now investors want to know who can serve profitably.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles Theme - Artificial intelligence Quarterly earnings

The great earnings squeeze: can record margins survive the real economy?

Tue, 28 Apr 2026 09:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

S&P 500 margins look strong, but this week tests whether that strength is broad.
Oil, freight and cautious consumers may separate real pricing power from hope.
Payments, staples, energy, healthcare and industrials offer a cleaner read on the real economy.

The market has enjoyed a strong profit story. According to FactSet, the S&P 500 is reporting a blended net profit margin of 13.4% for the first quarter of 2026. If confirmed, that would be the highest margin since FactSet began tracking the data in 2009. Analysts also expect margins to rise further through the rest of 2026.

Source: FactSet Insights.

That is impressive. It is also a high bar. Earnings season now asks a less comfortable question: can companies keep those margins when oil is higher, consumers are more selective, and costs still refuse to sit quietly in the corner?

This week is not only about Big Tech. Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Apple will still draw the headlines, especially as investors watch artificial intelligence spending. But the more useful clues may come from companies closer to the real economy: Visa, Mastercard, Coca-Cola, Starbucks, UPS, BP, TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil, Chevron, Linde, Airbus, Novartis, AstraZeneca, Caterpillar and others. They can show whether the profit story is broad, or whether the market is leaning too heavily on technology’s very large shoulders.

The consumer is not broken, but is getting choosy

Visa and Mastercard are simple but powerful economic thermometers. They run global card payment networks, so their results help show whether people are still spending across shops, travel, services and online purchases. They do not tell us everything, but they do show whether money is still moving.

The harder question is where that money goes. Coca-Cola and Mondelez test the strength of everyday brands. If consumers keep buying drinks and snacks despite higher prices, that points to pricing power. If volumes weaken, it suggests shoppers are still spending, but with a sharper pencil.

Starbucks is another useful signal. Coffee is not a mortgage payment, but it is a daily habit for many consumers. When people start trading down from small treats, it can say something about confidence. Not everything important in markets arrives wearing a suit.

Travel names add another layer. Booking Holdings and Royal Caribbean help show whether holidays and experiences remain a priority. A strong travel consumer can support margins in premium services, but it may also hide weakness in lower-income households. The consumer story is no longer one clean line. It is a split screen.

Oil helps one pocket and empties another

Higher oil prices create winners and victims at the same time. BP, TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil and Chevron can benefit from stronger energy prices, better trading conditions and improved refining margins. For these companies, higher oil can lift cash flow and support shareholder returns.

For many others, oil is less friendly. It raises fuel costs for logistics companies such as UPS. It can pressure airlines, packaging, chemicals and consumer goods companies. It can also hurt carmakers such as General Motors if higher petrol prices and financing costs make consumers more cautious about big purchases.

That is why oil is not just an energy story. It is a margin story. It touches the cost of moving goods, making goods and selling goods to households that already face higher bills. Very few companies enjoy being squeezed from both sides. Accountants are not known for their love of drama.

This is also where investors should look beneath the headline S&P 500 margin. FactSet notes that the energy sector’s first-quarter margin remains below its five-year average, even as oil is back in focus. That reminds us that higher commodity prices do not automatically mean stronger profits. Timing, refining, production costs and capital discipline still matter.

The real economy speaks quietly

Industrials rarely dominate earnings season, but they often tell the truth first. Airbus can show whether aircraft demand remains strong and whether supply chains are improving. Caterpillar gives a read on construction, mining and infrastructure spending. Atlas Copco is a window into factory equipment demand. Linde, which supplies industrial gases, shows whether essential business-to-business demand is holding up.

These companies matter because they sit close to real investment decisions. Orders, backlogs and margins can reveal whether companies are still expanding, delaying projects, or waiting for more clarity. That is more useful than another speech about “uncertainty”, though admittedly less dramatic.

Healthcare provides a different kind of test. Novartis and AstraZeneca offer a read on global drug demand and research pipelines. Eli Lilly remains tied to high expectations around obesity and diabetes treatments. AbbVie, Merck and Amgen bring the more mature side of healthcare, where patent risk, cash flow and new medicines matter.

Healthcare is less exposed to oil and daily consumer mood than many sectors. That can make it defensive. But defensive does not mean risk-free. When valuations are high, even stable companies need to deliver.

Big Tech is the shadow, not the whole stage

Big Tech still matters because it carries a large share of the index. Reuters Business notes that companies representing 44% of the S&P 500’s market value report this week, including the major technology names. That makes this a crucial week for market direction.

But for long-term investors, the broader question is not only whether the largest companies can keep spending on artificial intelligence. It is whether the rest of the market can defend profits without the same growth halo.

If Big Tech shines while consumer, industrial and transport companies weaken, the index may look healthier than the average business underneath. That is not necessarily a problem, but it is a concentration risk worth watching.

Risks that can spoil the meal

The first risk is that margins are too dependent on technology. If record profits come mainly from a few giant companies, the headline index margin may hide pressure elsewhere.

The second risk is that higher oil prices spread through the economy. Investors should watch fuel costs, freight commentary, packaging costs and any signs that companies need more discounts to protect volumes.

The third risk is consumer fatigue. Card spending can stay solid even if households become more selective. The warning signs are weaker volumes, smaller transactions and management comments about trading down.

Investor playbook

Watch margins, not only sales. Revenue growth matters less if costs rise faster.
Compare pricing power across sectors. Strong brands and essential services should hold up better.
Separate oil winners from oil victims. Energy gains can still pressure the wider market.
Treat Big Tech as context, not the full market. Index strength can hide weaker breadth.

The quieter test beneath the headlines

The market has enjoyed a very profitable meal, but this earnings week brings the bill. Big Tech will attract the brightest lights, yet the quieter clues may come from card payments, coffee cups, freight trucks, medicines, aircraft parts and barrels of oil. These are the companies closer to daily economic life. If they can protect margins, the profit story looks broader and healthier. If they cannot, record margins may look less like a new normal and more like a very good table at a crowded restaurant: pleasant while it lasts, but not guaranteed next time.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles

From reactor dreams to real contracts: the next test for nuclear stocks

Mon, 27 Apr 2026 11:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

X-energy’s strong listing shows appetite for nuclear, but only where contracts look credible.
Investors are now separating big stories from business models with clients, permits and cash.
Nuclear, space and artificial intelligence infrastructure stocks face the same test: can promises become profits?

A year ago, almost any stock with a nuclear angle could enjoy a warm glow. The story was simple: artificial intelligence (AI) needs more power, grids are tight, carbon-free electricity is scarce, and nuclear is suddenly fashionable again. Now the market is asking a better question: who actually gets paid?

That is why X-energy’s Nasdaq debut on 24 April 2026 matters. The advanced nuclear company priced its initial public offering (IPO) at USD 23 per share, raised about USD 1.02 billion, and closed at USD 29.20, up 27% from the IPO price. That is a strong start. But the interesting part is not just the share price pop. It is what investors seemed to reward: visible customers, industrial use cases, fuel capability and a long runway linked to power demand.

This is the new phase of the nuclear trade. Investors are still interested in the theme, but the easy “nuclear equals growth” story is no longer enough. The market now wants evidence: credible customers, bankable contracts, realistic timelines, funding visibility and a path from big ambition to actual cash flow.

The reactor story now needs a customer story

X-energy develops small modular reactors (SMRs), smaller nuclear plants designed to be built in modules rather than as one giant site-specific project. In theory, they can be cheaper, faster and easier to repeat than traditional nuclear plants. In practice, the sector still needs to prove that theory at commercial scale.

That is why X-energy’s client list matters. Amazon has invested in the company and is working with it on plans to deploy more than 5 gigawatts of new nuclear capacity in the United States by 2039. Dow is tied to a proposed project in Seadrift, Texas, where X-energy’s reactors would support industrial power and steam needs. Centrica is also working with X-energy on plans for advanced modular reactors in the United Kingdom.

For investors, these details change the conversation. A company without a customer is selling imagination. A company with large industrial and technology partners is at least selling a route to demand. The difference is not small. It is the difference between a sketch on a napkin and a blueprint with someone’s name on the invoice.

Still, a contract does not remove risk. It only improves the starting point. Nuclear projects require licences, financing, fuel, construction discipline and political patience. That last one is rare in nature, like a low-fee fund with perfect timing.

The market wants proof, not poetry

The same selectivity is visible beyond nuclear. AST SpaceMobile is not a nuclear company, but it is a useful comparison because it sits in the same “future infrastructure” bucket. The company is building a satellite network designed to connect ordinary mobile phones directly from space. That is a powerful idea, especially for remote areas, defence and emergency coverage.

But the market now watches the details closely. AST SpaceMobile reported USD 70.9 million of revenue for 2025 and pointed to large contracted revenue commitments. That helps. Yet recent pressure on the shares shows investors also care about launch execution, satellite deployment, competition and shareholder selling.

That is the pattern. Future infrastructure stocks can still attract capital, but the market is starting to score them like businesses, not science projects. The checklist is becoming clearer: real customers, binding or credible contracts, visible revenue conversion, enough cash to fund the build-out, and a path to profits that does not require permanent investor generosity.

In nuclear, this also explains the uneven moves across the sector. Oklo, NuScale Power, Cameco and other names all sit in different parts of the nuclear value chain. Some are developers. Some are fuel or uranium suppliers. Some have operating assets or more established revenue. Investors are increasingly treating those differences as important, which is healthy. A reactor developer and a uranium producer are not the same business, even if both glow in the same thematic presentation.

Source: Saxo Bank in-house framework. This is not an exhaustive list.

The hard part is turning demand into earnings

The bullish case for nuclear is easy to understand. AI data centres need reliable electricity. Electrification adds more demand. Governments want energy security. Companies want cleaner power. Nuclear sits neatly in that overlap.

The challenge is that demand is not the same as profit. A power buyer may want clean electricity, but only at a price that works. A developer may have a great design, but still face regulatory delays. A project may be strategic, but still run over budget. Nuclear history has a long memory, and not every chapter is bedtime reading.

This is why the best investor framework is not “which nuclear stock is hottest?” It is “which company can move from story to contract, from contract to construction, and from construction to cash flow?”

That sequence matters. Each step reduces risk. Each step also changes the valuation debate. Early-stage companies can move sharply on news because expectations are doing most of the heavy lifting. As companies mature, investors usually demand evidence. Revenue quality, margins, funding needs and customer concentration become more important than the size of the addressable market.

The risks are still very real

The biggest risk is timing. Nuclear projects can take years before revenue becomes meaningful, and delays can stretch balance sheets. Investors should watch regulatory milestones, construction updates and whether customers remain committed when costs change.

The second risk is financing. Companies building reactors, satellites or other hard infrastructure often need a lot of capital before they generate steady cash. If share prices fall, raising new money can become expensive.

The third risk is narrative crowding. When many stocks chase the same theme, the weaker stories can look strong during rallies. In a more selective market, vague announcements may stop working. The market may still enjoy a good story, but it now seems to prefer one with page numbers, signatures and payment terms.

Investor playbook

Track customer quality: large, credible clients matter more than vague memorandums of understanding.
Separate demand from profit: power shortages help, but economics decide shareholder returns.
Watch funding needs: repeated share issuance can dilute investors even when the story improves.
Use milestones: permits, construction starts, delivered revenue and margins are better signals than headlines.

The glow must meet the grid

The nuclear trade is not losing relevance. If anything, the need for reliable power is becoming more important as AI, electrification and energy security reshape the market. But the easy part of the story may be over. Investors are moving from “this sounds big” to “show me the contract, the permit, the customer and the margin”. That is a better market, even if it is less forgiving. X-energy’s IPO shows that capital is still available for strong future-infrastructure stories. The next test is whether those stories can survive contact with engineering, regulation and arithmetic. The atom may power the future, but cash flow will decide the investment case.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead

The great divide: SaaS cools while hardware heats up

Fri, 24 Apr 2026 09:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

SaaS weakness reflects tighter expectations, not a collapse in fundamentals.
AI is shifting value from software pricing to hardware capacity and supply.
Markets are rewarding scarcity in chips while questioning growth in software.

Software stocks were meant to be the cleanest story in markets. Predictable revenue, steady growth, and high margins. It felt simple. Right now, it does not feel simple at all. Recent earnings from names like ServiceNow and Adobe have triggered sharp share price reactions. Not because the numbers were disastrous, but because they were not strong enough.

At the same time, parts of the semiconductor world are holding up better. Companies like Intel and Texas Instruments are benefiting from a different kind of question. Not “will customers pay more?” but “who can actually supply what is needed?”

That contrast tells a bigger story. The artificial intelligence trade is not disappearing. It is shifting.

When growth stories meet stricter questions

SaaS, or software as a service, has long been valued on future potential. Investors paid for growth that was expected to continue almost automatically. That expectation is now being tested. Companies are still growing, but at a slower pace. Customers are more careful. Deals take longer. Expansion within existing clients is not as strong as before.

One key measure is net revenue retention. This shows how much existing customers increase their spending over time. For many SaaS firms, this number is drifting lower. The reason is simple. Businesses are reviewing costs. Software budgets are no longer treated as untouchable.

There is also a quiet shift in competition. Large platforms such as Microsoft and Alphabet are bundling more features into their ecosystems. Tools that once justified separate subscriptions are increasingly included as part of a broader offering.

This puts pressure on pricing power. Still, it is important to stay grounded. Many SaaS companies continue to grow at healthy rates. Their margins remain strong. Recurring revenue is still more stable than most business models.

The issue is not that SaaS is breaking. It is that expectations are tightening faster than the businesses are changing.

Chips have something software does not: scarcity

While software faces questions about pricing and demand, hardware tells a different story. Semiconductors are physical. They require factories, supply chains, and years of investment. They cannot be copied overnight.

That creates scarcity. Artificial intelligence is not just a software story. It is also about data centres, power systems, and the chips that make everything run. This is where companies like Intel and Texas Instruments come in.

Intel is working to rebuild its position in advanced chips and manufacturing. It sits closer to the large-scale infrastructure needed to train and run AI systems.

Texas Instruments operates in a quieter part of the market. It produces analogue and embedded chips, the components that help machines sense, control, and manage power. These chips are found in cars, factories, and industrial systems. Not exciting, but essential.

This difference matters. Software can often be replicated or bundled into larger platforms. Hardware cannot. If demand rises, supply takes time to catch up. That gives chipmakers a different kind of pricing power.

In simple terms, software is facing substitution risk. Hardware is facing capacity constraints. Markets are responding accordingly.

A shift from narrative to economics

The recent split between SaaS and semiconductors reflects a deeper change. Investors are moving away from broad narratives and towards practical economics. In software, the key question is whether companies can maintain pricing power and steady expansion.

In hardware, the question is whether supply can meet demand, and at what cost. Both sectors are tied to artificial intelligence, but they sit at different points in the value chain. One is closer to the user. The other is closer to the infrastructure.

Right now, infrastructure looks more tangible. That does not mean hardware is safer. Semiconductor businesses are cyclical. Demand can rise quickly, but it can also fall. Overinvestment is always a risk. It simply means the current phase of the AI cycle is rewarding what is hardest to replicate.

Risks worth watching

There are risks on both sides of this divide.

For SaaS, the main concern is that slower growth becomes structural. If customers continue to reduce spending or switch to bundled solutions, pricing power could weaken more than expected. For hardware, the risk is the opposite. If companies build too much capacity, the industry could face oversupply. That would pressure margins and returns.

There is also a broader risk. If economic conditions deteriorate, both software spending and hardware demand could slow at the same time. Early signals often appear in guidance, order trends, and how companies talk about demand. Tone matters as much as numbers.

The real message behind the market split

At first glance, the recent moves look like a simple rotation. Software down, hardware up. It is more interesting than that. The market is not rejecting artificial intelligence. It is refining how it values it. The focus is shifting from what AI can do to what it requires. Software shows the promise. Hardware carries the cost.

That brings us back to the starting point. Software once felt like the easiest story in markets. Today, it requires more explanation. Hardware, often overlooked, is gaining attention because it is harder to ignore.

For long-term investors, this is not about choosing one over the other. It is about understanding where value is building in each phase of the cycle. The glow around SaaS may have dimmed, but the broader AI story has not. It has simply moved deeper into the system, where scarcity, not just innovation, decides who gets paid.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles

Asia Market Quick Take – 24 April, 2026

Fri, 24 Apr 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 24 April, 2026

Key points:

Macro: US continues to block Iranian ports; Japan inflation rises
Equities: Intel gains 20% after delivering strong sales forecast
FX: USDJPY near 160, 4th straight gain; NZDUSD G10 laggard
Commodities: Gold set for weekly drop; oil up fifth day, WTI near $100
Fixed income: 5 year breakevens topped 2.7%, widest since 23 Mar

------------------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

Japan’s annual inflation rose to 1.5% in March 2026 from 1.3% in February, driven by higher transport and household item costs. Food inflation eased to 3.6%, while electricity and gas prices fell further on subsidies. Core inflation picked up to 1.8%, still below the 2% target. Month-on-month, CPI increased 0.4%, the strongest rise since January 2025.
Trump’s Truth Social posts and decision to maintain a naval blockade of Iranian ports have hindered prospects for renewed talks with Tehran. The US‑Iran ceasefire and the Israel‑Lebanon truce were both extended, but disruptions have sharply reduced Middle East oil and gas shipments, tightening global supply.
The S&P Global flash US Composite PMI rose to 52 in April 2026 from 50.3 in March, indicating modest growth. Services activity was weak despite a move back into expansion, while manufacturing saw its strongest output gain in four years, partly from stockpiling. Input costs and supply delays hit their worst since mid-2022, triggering the largest jump in selling prices since July 2022, and employment increased only slightly.
US initial jobless claims rose by 6,000 to 214,000 in the week ending April 18, near expectations. Continuing claims edged up by 12,000 to 1.821 million. Both remain below last year’s averages, consistent with low layoff levels. Federal employee claims fell by 60 to 452.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.20 in March 2026 from +0.03 in February, its weakest since November 2025, as production, sales, and consumption/housing turned negative, partly offset by slightly stronger employment indicators.

Equities:

US: The S&P 500 Index slid 0.4% to 7,108.40 on Thursday, as oil rose on concern about an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East that could prolong the Strait of Hormuz closure. Nasdaq 100 fell 0.6% while the Dow Jones dropped 0.4%. Technology stocks led the decline, with the sector shedding 1.5%, dragged down by ServiceNow which plunged 17.8% after cutting its full-year forecast. Lockheed Martin lost 4.7% after reporting an 11% decline in earnings which was more than expected. In after-hours trading, Intel delivered a blockbuster sales forecast, with revenue guidance of $13.8 billion to $14.8 billion in the June quarter vs estimates of $13b, sending shares +20%. AppFolio shares rose 6.4% after raising its full-year revenue forecast, while Boyd Gaming and other stocks also moved.
EU: European stocks closed a touch higher on Thursday, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index advancing slightly to 614.20, having fluctuated as markets digested a flurry of earnings and conflicting messaging around the conflict in the Middle East. Food giant Nestle was the biggest point gainer, increasing 5.9% as demand for coffee and snacks saw sales top expectations, while L'Oreal reported its strongest quarterly sales growth in two years. The FTSE 100 fell for the fourth day, dropping 0.2% to 10,457.01 in London, while the DAX fell 0.2% to 24,155.45 in Frankfurt. The Swiss Market Index broke its three-day losing streak, closing 1.38% higher amid a busy day of corporate financial updates.
Asia: Asian markets showed mixed performance on Friday. South Korea's Kospi Index opened 0.3% higher at 6,496.10, following a strong Thursday session where it rose 0.9% to 6,475.81, driven by an earnings beat by SK Hynix and a surprisingly strong print for Korea's first-quarter GDP, with Samsung shares setting another record. Nikkei futures were down 0.2% at 59,050 on the SGX as uncertainty over the US-Iran conflict continues, with the dollar at 159.74 yen. The Nikkei 225 touched 60,000 for the first time earlier this week amid huge foreign inflows to Japanese equities. Singapore's Straits Times Index has been volatile, with the benchmark rising 0.3% to 5,021.20 on April 15, though it dipped 0.2% to 4,997.93 on April 17 as investors awaited the extension of the US-Iran war ceasefire. Hong Kong's Hang Seng and other regional markets remained cautious amid Middle East tensions.

Earnings this week:

Friday - Procter & Gamble

FX:

The dollar climbed for a third day while all G-10 currencies fell against the greenback Thursday, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rising 0.1%, climbing more than 0.5% in three days.
USDJPY gained 0.15% to 159.73 yen, up for four straight sessions, as Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned that officials are in close contact around the clock with their US counterparts as Tokyo remains on high alert over speculative moves keeping the yen weak. One-week implied volatility on USDJPY jumped to 8.5%, the highest since March 31 on an end-of-day basis, with both Fed and Bank of Japan rate decisions coming up next week and uncertainties persisting over US-Iran peace negotiations.
The euro lost 0.16% to $1.1686, down for three straight sessions and hitting the lowest five pm New York rate since Wednesday, April 8, 2026, with the euro dropping below its 200-day moving average to $1.1671, the lowest since April 13.
The yuan slipped as the US dollar climbed for a third straight day amid growing uncertainties surrounding US-Iran peace talks, with USDCNH rising less than 0.1% to 6.8350 and the People's Bank of China weakening its daily reference rate for a second day.
The New Zealand dollar underperformed all other G10 currencies against the US dollar.

Commodities:

Gold was headed for a weekly decline, snapping four weeks of gains, trading steady below $4,700 an ounce, having given up nearly 3% over the week as the US and Iran intensified a maritime standoff and progress faltered on talks to end the war that's choked energy supplies and heightened inflation risks.
WTI crude rose at the open in Asia near $97 per barrel, with oil swinging between gains and losses as the US and Iran remained locked in a battle for control of the Strait of Hormuz after plans to meet for a fresh round of peace talks failed, with President Donald Trump ordering the US Navy to shoot any boat laying mines in the waterway.
Copper fell with most other metals as investors watched for the next major developments from the Middle East after peace talks stalled, with Comex Copper settling 0.73% lower at $6.0755 per pound and LME 3-month copper closing $78 lower at $13,356 a ton.

Fixed income:

US Treasury yields rose across the curve, with the 10-year yield rising 2.2 basis points to 4.327% and the 30-year yield rising 1.7 basis points to 4.923%, marking the largest one-day yield gain for the 30-year since Thursday, April 16, 2026.
The US Treasury's 5-year TIPS reopening was awarded at 1.367% versus the when-issued yield of around 1.365%, with the auction stopping around 0.2 basis points above the WI yield, while 5-year breakeven rates topped through 2.7%, the widest since March 23.
Munis cheapened slightly on the front of the curve, as US Treasuries saw continued losses, with munis weaker on the front end for a few days, leading to a slight inversion of the curve starting around the 2028 maturities.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

The Tesla quarter that said “better now, costlier later”

Thu, 23 Apr 2026 07:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Tesla beat expectations on profit and cash flow, but the bigger story was a much larger spending plan.
The core car business looks steadier, yet Tesla is asking investors to fund a wider bet on autonomy and robotics.
That matters beyond Tesla, because the electric vehicle race is shifting from pure sales growth to execution, cost control and software scale.

Tesla’s first-quarter update lands with a familiar kind of tension. The company gave investors a better set of near-term numbers, then reminded them that the real story sits further out and costs a lot more. In extended trading, the shares initially climbed as much as 4.8%, to 406 USD after the results, before that early cheer faded as management lifted its 2026 spending plan and warned of negative free cash flow for the rest of the year. Markets, it turns out, still enjoy a profit beat, but they become more thoughtful when the invoice arrives.

The headline numbers were strong enough to trigger that initial bounce. Revenue and earnings per share both beat Bloomberg consensus, while gross margin improved to 21.1% from 16.3% a year earlier. Put simply, Tesla earned more from each dollar of sales than the market had expected.

A better quarter, but not a simple one

The reason investors did not celebrate for long is that Tesla paired that beat with a much heavier spending message. Management now expects capital expenditure, meaning money spent on factories, equipment and major projects, to exceed 25 billion USD in 2026. That is at least 5 billion USD above its earlier forecast of around 20 billion USD. Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja also said the company expects negative free cash flow for the rest of 2026 as this investment phase ramps. That changes the tone. A company can beat this quarter and still make next year feel more expensive.

Tesla Capital Expenditures: Historical, Guidance, and Estimates (USD Billions)

Source: Saxo Bank analysis, Bloomberg consensus. Chart generated using ASKB by BloombergAI.

This is why the market reaction makes sense. Tesla’s earnings beat says the present is holding up better than feared. The spending plan says the future will require much more trust. Investors are not just buying a carmaker here. They are being asked to keep funding a transition into artificial intelligence, humanoid robots, robotaxis, chips and new factories. That is a very large sentence, and an even larger cheque. The market’s hesitation was less about the quarter and more about what the quarter is being used to finance.

Cars still pay the bills

That matters because Tesla’s traditional auto business is still the engine supporting the rest of the story. The company delivered 358,023 vehicles in the quarter, up 21,342, or 6.3%, from a year earlier, but still below Wall Street expectations, as compiled by Bloomberg. It also produced 408,386 vehicles, which means production exceeded deliveries by 50,363 units. That gap matters. It suggests Tesla is stabilising demand, not escaping the harder reality of a more competitive electric vehicle market. Chinese rivals remain aggressive, price pressure has not vanished, and the expiry of a United States electric-vehicle tax incentive adds another headwind.

Tesla did offer some encouraging signs. It said demand improved in Asia-Pacific and South America and rebounded in North America and the Europe, Middle East and Africa region. It also pointed to progress on Full Self-Driving, or FSD, which still requires human supervision, including Dutch approval in April and a wider European process now under way. Meanwhile, paid robotaxi miles nearly doubled sequentially, and Tesla has expanded rides in Texas while preparing more US cities. These are not yet profit centres on a scale that changes the income statement. But they do show the company is trying to turn a story into a service.

The wider message for the industry

The broader lesson is that the electric vehicle industry is maturing into something more demanding. For years, the simple question was who could sell more electric cars. Now the question is who can fund the next layer without breaking the economics of the current one. Tesla is trying to use a steadier car business to bankroll autonomy and robotics. Other carmakers may not have that luxury. That makes Tesla’s quarter relevant well beyond one ticker. It highlights how future advantage may sit not only in vehicle design, but in software, data, chips, factories and balance-sheet stamina. That is less cinematic than a robot unveiling, but usually more useful for investors.

There is also a useful warning in the side businesses. Tesla’s energy generation and storage revenue fell to 2.41 billion USD, down 12%, from a year earlier. Management called that business “lumpy”, meaning the timing of projects can swing results from quarter to quarter. Fair enough. But it also shows that even Tesla’s brighter narratives do not always move in a straight line. When a company is trying to be carmaker, software house, robotics lab and energy platform at once, investors need to accept that some parts will look tidier than others.

Risks worth keeping in view

The main risk is execution. Tesla now has more projects that need to work, not fewer. Investors should watch whether Cybercab production really scales, whether robotaxi disclosures become more concrete, and whether the core car business can keep funding the transition. A second risk is that competition in electric vehicles keeps tightening while Tesla spends more heavily elsewhere. A third is that valuation still rests partly on future businesses that remain early, regulated and hard to model. In plain English, the dream is large, but so is the distance between pilot project and durable profit.

The price of tomorrow

Tesla’s quarter does not settle the big debate around the stock. It sharpens it. The company showed that the present is in better shape than many feared, but also that management is doubling down on a future that asks for more capital, more patience and more belief. That is the loop investors come back to with Tesla again and again. It sells cars today, but it is valued for what it hopes to become tomorrow. This quarter made that trade-off clearer, not easier. And perhaps that is the real Tesla earnings story: better numbers bought the company a little more time, but time, like everything else in this story, is unlikely to be cheap.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles Quarterly earnings Tesla Tesla Motors Tesla Inc.

Asia Market Quick Take – 23 April, 2026

Thu, 23 Apr 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 23 April, 2026

Key points:

Macro: Iran restricts SoH and US continues blockade of Iran ships
Equities: SP500 trades to new high and Tesla beats earnings
FX: Norwegian krone rallied, leading G-10
Commodities: Brent futures settled above $101, +3.5%, a two-week high
Fixed income: Yields are higher and long end muted after solid $13bn 20Y reopening

------------------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

Tehran continues to control the Straits of Hormuz, restricting most international traffic and reportedly firing on commercial ships, while the US maintains a blockade of Iranian ports that Tehran calls a ceasefire violation. Trump said the truce will remain in place indefinitely as Washington awaits a revised peace proposal, but Iran has signaled it does not plan to hold talks soon.
South Korea’s GDP grew 1.7% QoQ in Q1 2026, rebounding from a 0.2% contraction and beating the 1.0% forecast, the strongest since Q1 2021. Growth was driven by a 5.1% rise in exports (especially semiconductors), solid investment, and modest consumption gains. Annually, GDP rose 3.6%, up from 1.6% and above the 2.7% forecast, the fastest since Q4 2021.
Australia’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.0 in April 2026 from 49.8, signaling a return to expansion. Output fell more slowly, while new orders, jobs, and inventories slipped modestly amid weak demand. Middle East–related disruptions lengthened delivery times the most since mid-2022, and higher fuel and freight costs drove the fastest input inflation in nearly four years.
US crude inventories rose 1.93 million barrels to 465.7 million in the week to April 17, against expectations for a 1.2 million draw, with Cushing stocks up 806,000. Refinery runs and utilization edged lower, while gasoline and distillate stocks posted larger‑than‑expected draws. Net crude imports increased by 1.21 million bpd.
Euro Area consumer confidence fell 4.3 points to -20.6 in April 2026, the lowest since December 2022, amid economic uncertainty and higher energy costs. In the wider EU, sentiment dropped 4.2 points to -19.4, with confidence in both regions still well below long-term averages.

Equities:

US: S&P 500 climbed 1.0% to a fresh all-time high of 7,137.90 on Wednesday, placing the index on track for its best month since 2020, as strong corporate results and the ceasefire extension revived risk appetites after a two-day retreat. Nasdaq 100 jumped 1.7% to also set a closing peak, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.7%. Chipmakers climbed for a 16th straight day, the longest-ever winning streak. Boeing surged on solid first-quarter deliveries. In after-hours trading, Tesla jumped as earnings beat estimates, reporting profits of $477 million, up 17% from the year-ago period, while revenues jumped 16% to $22.4 billion. Intel shares gained 3% after Tesla CEO Musk stated plans to use Intel's 14A process. IBM and CSX also moved higher in late trading.
EU: The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell for the third day, dropping 0.3% to 613.88, the lowest closing level since April 9. Deutsche Telekom contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 4.8% after Bloomberg News reported it's discussing a potential merger with its T-Mobile US arm. Bureau Veritas had the largest drop, falling 10.6%. The DAX fell 0.3% to 24,194.90 in Frankfurt, while the FTSE 100 dropped 0.2% to 10,476.46 in London. Technology stocks rose against the broader market decline, with ASML rallying after giving a strong forecast. An investor frenzy for photonics companies producing optical components essential to AI datacenters continued, with Germany's LPKF Laser & Electronics rising 14% and up 200% since the start of the year.
Asia: Asian equity futures were primed for advances Thursday after robust US corporate results lifted Wall Street to a record. Equity-index futures for Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea all climbed. On Wednesday, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 1.2% to 26,163.24, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped around 2% to 4,963, dragged lower by major Chinese tech firms including Alibaba and JD.com on concerns over near-term profitability due to regulatory pressure. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 1.2% to 8,843.60 at close. The Kospi Index in Seoul rose 0.5% to 6,417.93, with HD Hyundai Heavy Industries contributing the most to the index gain. SK Hynix reported a five-fold jump in quarterly profit to a record 40.3 trillion won, underscoring surging prices of AI memory chips. Nikkei futures were flat at 59,755 on the SGX as investors monitored developments in the Middle East.

Earnings this week:

Thursday - Lockheed Martin, American Express, Intel
Friday - Procter & Gamble
Sunday - Verizon

FX:

The Norwegian krone rallied, outperforming all Group-of-10 peers against the greenback.
USDJPY slipped less than 0.1% to 159.27, inching closer to 160 per dollar as oil prices rose, with the yen gaining as much as 0.2% to 159.11 per dollar earlier in the session.
GBPUSD fell 0.1% to 1.3498, with the pound sterling climbing against the euro as rate hike bets held firm.
Morgan Stanley analysts see EURUSD longs with an approximately 6- to 9-month horizon looking attractive with a target between 1.20 and 1.25.
AUDUSD remains choppy and upside beyond the 17 April high looks limited with stochastics still overbought.
NZDUSD is consolidating after a bullish break above resistance from a downtrend from the 12 February high.

Commodities:

Brent crude futures settled above $101 a barrel, gaining 3.5% to $101.91, the highest in two weeks, amid conflicting reports about plans to reschedule peace talks between the US and Iran which have ultimately failed to materialize. WTI futures settled up 0.9% at $92.96.
Comex silver settled 1.9% higher at $77.893 per troy ounce, snapping a two-session losing streak.
Exchange-traded funds added 10,007 troy ounces of gold to their holdings in the last trading session, marking the sixth straight day of growth, the longest winning streak since January 28.

Fixed income:

Treasury futures edged lower into the $13 billion 20-year bond auction, before losses faded in late session to leave yields marginally cheaper on the day across the curve. The 20-year bond was awarded at 4.883% versus the WI yield trading around 4.892% at the bidding deadline, a solid auction result.
The 10-year Treasury yield remained unchanged at 4.293%, while the 30-year yield was little changed at 4.901%.
Treasury yields bounced back from early declines and settled roughly unchanged as Iran fired on three ships and President Trump extended the ceasefire but kept the US blockade of Iranian ports.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

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Mag 7 earnings preview: Can Big Tech turn AI spending into earnings growth?

Wed, 22 Apr 2026 05:30:00 Z

Key points:

This is the next big test for the AI trade. Five of the Magnificent 7 report within two days, with Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon on 29 April 2026, and Apple on 30 April 2026.
The debate has shifted from overbuilding to returns. Earlier concerns around excessive AI data-centre buildout have eased, but investors now want proof that capex is translating into revenue, margins, and monetisation.
The bar is different for each name. Microsoft and Amazon need to prove cloud and AI demand are still accelerating, Alphabet and Meta need clearer monetisation, and Apple needs to defend its premium with resilience rather than hype.

The AI story is entering a more demanding phase. Earlier this year, investors worried hyperscalers were building too much AI infrastructure, too quickly, with capex rising sharply and the revenue flywheel still unclear. That tone has shifted. AI stocks have regained momentum into first-quarter earnings as overbuilding fears have eased, compute shortages remain real, and newer model momentum has helped revive confidence in demand.

This earnings week matters because the market is no longer rewarding AI ambition alone. It now wants evidence that spending is still producing durable growth, stronger earnings, and clearer returns on investment. The four hyperscalers alone are expected to spend about $645 billion in 2026, up roughly 56% from a year earlier. Investors can still forgive big spending. They may be far less willing to forgive vague spending.

Microsoft

Date of reporting: 29 April 2026
EPS expected: about $4.04, up roughly 17% year-on-year
Revenue expected: about $81.4 billion, up roughly 16% year-on-year

Capex: Microsoft is on track to spend close to $146 billion on AI and cloud infrastructure in fiscal 2026, among the highest across hyperscalers, with expectations for fiscal 2027 capex moving closer to $170 billion. That leaves little room for vague messaging. The market will want reassurance that this level of investment is still being matched by demand, monetisation, and operating leverage.

What to watch: Microsoft remains the market’s cleanest AI execution story, but after lagging peers it now needs to show that heavy investment is producing visible commercial traction.

Azure: Intelligent Cloud revenue is expected at about $34.2 billion, up 28% y/y, with Azure growth around 38%. Healthy cloud migrations and strong AI spending remain the key supports. AI contribution is expected at about 21.4%.
Cloud margins: Microsoft Cloud gross margin is expected at 66.23%, down from 69% in Q3 FY2025, reinforcing the view that this phase of AI growth remains infrastructure-heavy.
Commercial remaining performance obligation: This remains a key forward-looking demand indicator as Microsoft scales spending aggressively.
Copilot: Monetisation may be improving sequentially, but adoption still looks challenging. The question is whether Copilot is becoming meaningful commercial traction rather than just strategic narrative.

Stock price and valuation view: Microsoft has been the worst performer among the hyperscalers year-to-date. That leaves the stock looking less crowded than peers, but at roughly 22x forward earnings, it is not cheap enough to ignore execution risk. A strong Azure print and improving Copilot traction would reinforce the case that Microsoft remains one of the market’s highest-quality AI compounders.

Bull case: Azure growth lands at or above the high end of expectations, AI contribution continues to rise, and Copilot monetisation shows clearer progress alongside confident commentary on demand.

Bear case: Azure growth merely meets expectations, Copilot adoption remains sluggish, and capex stays very heavy, reviving concern that spending is running ahead of monetisation.

Alphabet

Date of reporting: 29 April 2026
Adjusted EPS expected: about $2.83
Revenue expected: about $107 billion, up roughly 11% year-on-year
Key segments: Google Search, YouTube Ads, Google Cloud, Other Bets

Capex: Alphabet’s spending plans remain one of the key debates around the stock. The current expectation is that management maintains its FY2026 capex forecast of $175-$185 billion, with limited forward commentary on FY2027. Even so, Bloomberg estimates point to capex moving closer to $200 billion in FY2027, which shows why investors will remain highly sensitive to any signal on duration, discipline, and expected returns. The market has become more comfortable with elevated AI investment, but only because Google Cloud momentum has improved and the broader monetisation story is starting to look more credible.

What to watch: Alphabet now needs to show it is becoming a broader AI platform story without damaging the profitability of Search.

Search: Revenue is expected at about $59 billion, up 16% y/y, with a modest deceleration from the prior quarter.
Google Cloud Platform: Likely the standout metric, with growth potentially in the 50% range y/y, driven by broader AI workloads.
YouTube and advertising: Revenue is expected at about $10 billion, up 12% y/y, supported by healthy ad demand.
Margins and AI returns: Rising capex means investors will keep watching whether monetisation is visible enough to preserve operating discipline.

Stock price and valuation view: Alphabet increasingly looks like a catch-up AI trade. There is room for further re-rating if management shows AI is widening the franchise rather than just defending it. But that means the quarter needs to deliver more than a clean beat.

Bull case: Google Cloud surprises to the upside, Search remains resilient, and management shows confidence that AI is supporting growth rather than simply increasing costs.

Bear case: Search softens, capex rises further, or Cloud growth is not strong enough to convince investors that returns on AI spending are improving.

Amazon

Date of reporting: 29 April 2026
Adjusted EPS expected: about $2.11
Revenue expected: about $177.2 billion, up roughly 14% year-on-year

Capex: Amazon’s investment cycle has become much more central to the stock’s narrative as AWS and the broader AI infrastructure ecosystem take on greater importance. Amazon is expected to reiterate its full-year 2026 capex guide of $200 billion, which would make it the largest spender among the AI hyperscalers. Consensus for full-year 2026 capex stands at about $195.9 billion, while Bloomberg consensus points to roughly $209 billion in 2027. On 21 April 2026, Amazon also announced an additional $5 billion investment in Anthropic, with potential for $20 billion more over time, underscoring how quickly enterprise AI demand is scaling. The market has been comfortable backing that buildout because AWS remains one of the clearest beneficiaries of rising AI demand. But comfort is conditional. Heavy capex still needs to be matched by visible acceleration in cloud growth and healthy margins.

What to watch: Amazon may be the most important read-through for the broader AI infrastructure trade because AWS sits at the centre of enterprise and developer demand for compute.

AWS: Revenue is estimated at about $36.6 billion, up 25% y/y in constant currency, driven by robust AI demand, increased Claude usage, and expanded cloud commitments.
Advertising Services: Revenue is estimated at about $16.9 billion, up 20.8% y/y in constant currency.
Retail and operating discipline: Investors will watch whether retail margins hold up as Amazon balances core commerce and AI-related investment.
AI ecosystem and commentary: The market will want reassurance that Amazon is not just spending to keep pace, but building an ecosystem that supports durable revenue growth.

Stock price and valuation view: Amazon has been the clear momentum leader in the group, with the stock up about 20% month-to-date and 8% year-to-date, making it the strongest performer among the hyperscalers. That strength reflects growing confidence in AWS, the AI infrastructure story, and the broader Anthropic ecosystem. At roughly 23x forward earnings, the stock is still carrying a premium, which means expectations are not low. If management delivers confidence on cloud acceleration and the broader AI ecosystem, Amazon can continue to justify that premium. But if AWS is merely in line while capex remains very heavy, the market may start asking harder questions about whether Amazon is investing like a winner but reporting like a laggard.

Bull case: AWS growth meets or exceeds elevated expectations, advertising remains strong, margins stay healthy, and management commentary reinforces the view that AI demand is driving durable cloud growth.

Bear case: Heavy spending continues but AWS growth is only in line, creating concern that Amazon is investing aggressively without enough acceleration to justify it.

Apple

Date of reporting: 30 April 2026
EPS expected: about $1.96, up roughly 18% year-on-year
Revenue expected: about $109.3 billion, up roughly 15% year-on-year

Capex: Apple is the least capex-intensive AI story in this group, which makes it a useful contrast. Capital expenditure is estimated at about $13.5 billion in fiscal 2026 and $15.4 billion in fiscal 2027, far below the hyperscalers. Investors are not looking to Apple for a hyperscaler-style infrastructure buildout. Instead, the focus is on whether Apple can maintain earnings durability, service-led monetisation, and product ecosystem resilience while the market increasingly rewards AI-linked growth elsewhere.

What to watch: Apple is the least direct AI infrastructure trade of the group, so the focus is less on AI hype and more on resilience.

Services: Revenue is estimated at about $30.4 billion, up 14%.
iPhone: Still the key driver of sentiment, especially around demand and upgrade behaviour.
Mac: Mac sales could surprise positively, helped by stronger Mac Mini demand.
Greater China: Investors will want to know whether recent improvement is sustainable.
Margins and product mix: Apple does not need explosive growth, but it does need to defend premium profitability.

Stock price and valuation view: Apple is not the cleanest way to play the AI enthusiasm driving the rest of the group, but it remains one of the market’s clearest durability stories. Even so, the stock is still down about 2% year-to-date, which suggests investors are not fully convinced that steadiness alone is enough in a market that is rewarding more direct AI exposure. At roughly 28x forward earnings, Apple is also trading at a richer multiple than most of its mega-cap peers. That means the bar is not low. The company does not need a dramatic AI reveal next week, but it does need to remind investors why it still deserves that premium as a mega-cap compounder. If Services remains strong, margins hold, and China looks more stable, that may be enough. But if the forward message feels too incremental, the stock risks looking expensive as well as unexciting.

Bull case: Services growth remains firm, margins hold up, and management signals that China trends are improving rather than merely bouncing.

Bear case: The quarter is acceptable but the forward message feels incremental, especially if Services growth slows or China remains uneven.

What matters across all five

The key question is whether demand for AI products and services is still strong enough to justify the capex wave now rolling through Big Tech. Microsoft and Amazon will shape confidence in cloud and AI infrastructure. Alphabet and Meta will test whether AI spending is improving monetisation rather than just inflating costs. Apple will show whether mega-cap resilience still holds even outside the pure AI buildout story.

In short, the market can still forgive big spending. It may be far less willing to forgive vague spending.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

Charu Chanana

Chief Investment Strategist

Saxo Markets

Topics: Equities Theme Category - Equities Artificial Intelligence Theme - Artificial intelligence Artificial Intelligence Apple Inc. Apple Microsoft Corp. Microsoft Microsoft Microsoft Corp. Amazon.com Amazon Facebook Inc Amazon.com Alphabet Meta Platforms Inc.

Asia Market Quick Take – 22 April, 2026

Wed, 22 Apr 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take –22 April, 2026

Key points:

Macro: US-Iran talks stall; US retail sales rise 1.7% vs 1.4% expected
Equities: Apple falls 2.5%, dragging the SP500
FX: Dollar climbs on stalled US‑Iran talks, strong US data; euro, sterling lag
Commodities: WTI near $90 after 10% two-day surge while silver fell
Fixed income: Treasury yields up across the curve; 10Y +4 bps to 4.29%

------------------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

US‑Iran peace talks are stalled and the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly closed after Iran refused talks and vowed not to reopen the route while US naval interceptions continue. Trump extended the ceasefire pending a unified Iranian proposal. The conflict is curbing supply, with demand destruction near 4 million barrels per day and possibly rising to 5 million (about 5% of global supply), mainly impacting Asia.
US retail sales rose 1.7% in March 2026, beating the 1.4% forecast and marking the fastest growth since March 2025, led by a 15.5% jump in gasoline station receipts amid higher fuel prices. Most major categories posted gains, and core retail sales climbed 0.7%, above the 0.2% forecast.
Japan’s trade surplus widened to JPY 667.0 billion in March 2026 from JPY 529.8 billion a year earlier, but missed the JPY 1,106 billion forecast. Exports rose 11.7% to a record JPY 11,003.3 billion, outpacing imports, which grew 10.9% to JPY 10,336.3 billion amid strong domestic demand after late-2025 stimulus.
Fed Chair nominee Warsh said there is a short window to bring inflation down, the Fed’s balance sheet should be smaller and avoid long-term Treasuries, and his disagreements with Powell are purely policy-related. He denied reports Trump pushed him to cut rates, saying he never sought such commitments. Warsh added that inflation is improving but more work is needed and argued the Fed lacks legal authority to issue a digital currency and should not pursue one.
US private employers added an average of 54,750 jobs per week in the four weeks to April 4, 2026, up from a revised 40,250 and marking a fifth straight week of improving hiring and the highest pace since ADP’s weekly tracking began in September 2025.

Equities:

US - S&P 500 fell 0.6% to 7,064.01, while the Nasdaq 100 declined 0.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.6%. Markets initially rose but reversed course after Vice President Vance called off his Pakistan trip, though futures recovered in after-hours trading following Trump's ceasefire extension announcement. Apple contributed the most to the S&P 500 decline, falling 2.5%, while Tractor Supply had the largest drop, plunging 11.7%. United Health Group +7% as it beat Q1 expectations and offered strong 2026 guidance as it authorizes $2b buyback in Q2.In after-hours trading, Capital One, Interactive Brokers, and Intuitive Surgical posted gains.
EU - European stocks declined on Tuesday as investors weighed earnings and tracked Middle East developments ahead of Wednesday's ceasefire deadline. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.9% to 616.03, its largest decline since April 7. Healthcare led declines, down 2%, while food, beverage, tobacco, and industrials also underperformed. Energy rose 0.4%, tracking Brent crude's jump to about $98 per barrel. The DAX fell 0.6% to 24,270.87 in Frankfurt, with MTU Aero Engines dropping 5.8%. Royal Unibrew had the largest drop in the Stoxx 600, falling 24.8%. Rolls-Royce Holdings contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 6.5%.
Asia - Asian markets showed mixed performance on Tuesday, with South Korea's Kospi surging to a record high while other markets posted modest gains. The Kospi climbed 2.7% to 6,388.47, powered by chipmakers as the artificial intelligence trade regained momentum amid optimism over potential US-Iran peace talks. SK IE Technology jumped 10%, while technology megacaps including TSMC and SK Hynix led regional gains. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.9%, adding 524.28 points, as bank and tech issues advanced on earnings results. Hong Kong markets finished in the green, with Nvidia supplier Victory Giant surging 50% on its trading debut following the city's biggest IPO this year. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.9% to its highest in seven weeks. However, Wednesday's opening showed caution, with the Kospi opening flat at 6,387.57 and Sapporo Holdings falling 4.9% after announcing plans to close its US plant.

Earnings this week:

Wednesday - AT&T, Boeing, China Mobile, IBM, Tesla, Lam Research, Vertiv, GE Vernova, Boeing, Texas Instruments
Thursday - Lockheed Martin, American Express, Intel
Friday - Procter & Gamble
Sunday - Verizon

FX:

USD climbed, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index up 0.4% to its highest since April 10, as US–Iran peace talks stalled after Vice President JD Vance’s trip to Pakistan was cancelled, even though President Trump extended the ceasefire.
USDJPY gained to 159.35 as the BOJ is expected to keep rates on hold next week amid Iran-related risks, though it remains inclined to tighten over time.
NZDUSD inched higher to 0.5897 after inflation in New Zealand stayed above the RBNZ’s 1–3% target, boosting odds of a July hike.
EUR underperformed, with EURUSD down 0.4% to 1.1747 as German investor sentiment fell to a three-year low, while GBPUSD slipped 0.2% to 1.3508 amid fresh political pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer following testimony about alleged interference in Peter Mandelson’s US ambassadorship vetting.

Commodities:

Oil held a two-day gain after President Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran. West Texas Intermediate traded near $90 per barrel, after adding almost 10% in the prior two sessions, while Brent closed below $99.
Gold edged higher in early trade after President Trump said the US will extend its cease-fire with Iran. Front-month Comex gold futures had fallen earlier in the session.
Silver fell 4.43% to $76.411, marking the largest one-day dollar and percentage decline since March 26, 2026.

Fixed income:

Treasury yields rose across the curve, with the 10-year yield rising 3.2 basis points to 4.286% and the 30-year yield rising 1.2 basis points to 4.893%. Treasuries extended losses after reports that Vice President Vance's trip to Pakistan was called off, with yields cheaper by up to 7 basis points across 2-year yields.
Vanguard is boosting its holdings of Treasuries, taking advantage of higher yields following the Middle East conflict to lock in rates and hedge against risks of a potential growth slowdown.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

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Apple: an era ends, but what comes next?

Tue, 21 Apr 2026 12:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Tim Cook turned Apple into a compounding machine through iPhone scale, services growth, and massive share buybacks.

John Ternus now inherits a stronger Apple, but also one that needs a clearer hardware and artificial intelligence story.

The next era will be judged less by efficiency and more by whether Apple can still create products that feel new and necessary.

The end of one Apple, the start of another

Apple is one of the most successful companies ever built. It started in a garage in 1976 with Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak. Now, after more than a decade under Tim Cook, the company is preparing for another leadership change, and that makes this more than a corporate handover. It is a moment that invites investors to ask a bigger question: what does the next version of Apple look like in an age shaped by artificial intelligence, new hardware, and much higher expectations?

Cook took over as chief executive officer, or CEO, in 2011 after Jobs. Since then, some critics have argued that Apple has become less radical and less inventive than it was in the Jobs years. That debate will probably never go away. What is much harder to debate is the shareholder outcome. Under Cook, Apple has delivered one of the great stock market runs of the modern era.

By September, John Ternus, Apple’s current hardware chief, is set to take over as CEO. That points to the start of a new phase for the company, one where the old “think different” spirit may need to find a more modern shape. Apple now has to prove that it can adapt to the artificial intelligence race not only with software, but also with products people actually want to use.

The Tim Cook years were less flashy, but hugely effective

From a shareholder perspective, Tim Cook’s time at the top has been extraordinary. Since he became CEO in 2011, Apple’s share price has risen by more than 1,800%. Over the same period, the S&P 500, the broad US stock market index, returned a little over 450%. That is not just outperformance. That is domination with very neat spreadsheets.

The financial story behind that success is quite straightforward. Since 2011, the iPhone has remained the core engine of the business. Apple generated just over 40 billion USD of iPhone revenue in 2011. Today, that figure is above 200 billion USD a year. Few products in corporate history have scaled with the same consistency, and even fewer have remained so central to a business for so long.

That matters because Cook’s Apple did not need to reinvent the wheel every other year. Instead, it turned one hugely successful product into a global ecosystem, then kept improving, expanding, and monetising that ecosystem with remarkable discipline. It is not the most romantic version of innovation, but investors rarely complain when discipline comes wrapped in compounding.

Source: Bloomberg, Saxo Bank

The quiet force behind the share price

There is another reason Apple’s stock has done so well under Cook, and it is a little less glamorous than a new product launch. Apple has generated enormous amounts of free cash flow, which is the cash left after the company has funded the investments needed to run and grow the business.

From 2010 to 2022, Apple’s annual free cash flow rose from a little over 20 billion USD to more than 110 billion USD. That gave management unusual flexibility. Apple could keep investing in the business, while also returning a huge amount of capital to shareholders through share buybacks.

Those buybacks matter more than many people realise. When a company reduces its share count over time, each remaining share represents a slightly larger claim on the business. In Apple’s case, that effect has been significant. Someone who owned 1% of Apple in 2012 would, with the same number of shares today, own roughly 1.8% of the company. That is a powerful tailwind, even if it does not make for a very exciting keynote presentation.

So, from an investor’s perspective, the Cook formula has been clear. Scale the iPhone. Build a larger and richer services layer around it. Generate huge free cash flow. Use part of that cash to buy back stock. It is a very effective model, even if it lacks the theatre of the Jobs years.

Source: Bloomberg, Saxo Bank, figures in USD billions.

Why the leadership change matters now

This is exactly why the transition to John Ternus matters. Apple’s problem is not that the Cook model failed. It is that the next decade may require a different balance. Under Cook, Apple became a master of optimisation. Under Ternus, it may need to become more ambitious again, especially in hardware.

That does not mean Apple has produced nothing new in recent years. AirPods and Apple Watch have both been successful, and they are far from trivial. But it is also true that several bigger hardware ambitions never quite became reality. Projects such as an Apple car or a television set never turned into major products, while the recently launched Vision Pro augmented reality, or AR, headset is still far from proving itself as a mass-market success.

Apple has also pushed more software-led extensions into the ecosystem, including Apple TV and Apple CarPlay. These are useful additions, but they do not fully answer the harder question investors are now asking. Where is the next major hardware category, and how does Apple make it feel essential in a world increasingly shaped by artificial intelligence?

The appointment of Ternus, who currently leads hardware, suggests Apple understands that question very well. The company may decide that the next phase requires a little less emphasis on buybacks and a little more emphasis on investment. Compared with Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet, Apple has spent far less on data centres and artificial intelligence infrastructure. That may continue, but the Ternus era could also mark the beginning of a more assertive Apple, one that invests more heavily in future devices, tighter hardware and software integration, and what it calls Apple Intelligence.

Source: Bloomberg, Saxo Bank, figures in billions.

The real question for investors

For long-term investors, this is what makes the story timely and relevant. Apple is not trying to recover from weakness. It is trying to evolve from a position of enormous strength. That is a much better problem to have, but it is still a real test.

The next chapter will not be judged only on whether Apple can keep selling iPhones and expanding services. It will be judged on whether the company can still surprise people, shape new consumer habits, and turn artificial intelligence into something more tangible than a feature list. In other words, Apple now has to prove that operational excellence and bold product vision can still live in the same company at the same time.

That is what makes this leadership shift so interesting. One era ends with Apple richer, larger, and more efficient than ever. The next one begins with a simpler challenge, at least on paper: to show that the world’s most polished machine can still dream a little.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles

From chatbots to chip racks: where AI profits may actually end up

Tue, 21 Apr 2026 08:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Amazon’s Anthropic deal shows AI funding is increasingly about chips, cloud and power, not just software.
ASML and TSMC suggest the AI build-out is still very much alive, and scarce capacity still holds pricing power.
Nvidia still matters, but custom chips and long contracts are making the “picks and shovels” trade more specialised.

A chatbot writes the poem, answers the email, and gets all the applause. The bill, however, often lands somewhere else. That is what makes Amazon’s expanded Anthropic partnership so interesting. On 20 April 2026, Amazon announced it would invest up to USD 25 billion in Anthropic, while Anthropic committed to spend more than USD 100 billion over the next decade on Amazon Web Services technology. This is less a venture funding headline than a long-term capacity reservation dressed in startup clothing.

The funding round that is really a utility contract

The most revealing part of the Amazon-Anthropic announcement is not the cheque. It is the plumbing. Anthropic said it would secure up to 5 gigawatts of current and future Trainium chip capacity, expand inference, meaning the running of models after training, in Asia and Europe, and keep deepening its use of Amazon’s cloud stack. Amazon also said more than 100,000 customers already run Claude models on Amazon Web Services. That begins to sound less like backing a promising artificial intelligence lab and more like signing up a large industrial customer for the next decade.

That matters because AI is becoming capital-intensive in a very old-fashioned way. Software still matters, of course. But once demand scales, the winners are often the firms that own scarce inputs, not the ones with the flashiest demo. In AI, those scarce inputs are compute, advanced chips, networking, cooling, and the data-centre capacity needed to keep the whole system running. In other words, the chatbot may charm the user, but the rack gets paid.

The glamour is on the screen, but the cash may sit behind the curtain

The recent updates from ASML and TSMC make that harder to ignore. ASML lifted its 2026 revenue outlook as customers pressed ahead with expansion plans tied to artificial intelligence demand. A day later, TSMC raised its full-year growth outlook and pointed to capital spending landing at the high end of its range. That is not the tone of an industry stepping back for breath. It is the tone of builders asking for more concrete, more steel and a bigger site.

That is the more useful investor lens. Artificial intelligence is no longer only a software story. It is increasingly an industrial build-out, complete with bottlenecks, lead times and supply constraints. The visible part is still the chatbot, the assistant and the model demo. The less visible part is the factory, the foundry, the chip rack and the power bill. When demand runs ahead of supply, the companies that control key equipment and production capacity can end up with steadier economics than the businesses closer to the user.

Nvidia still sits at the centre of this world. Its graphics processing units, or GPUs, remain the benchmark for training advanced models. But the market is also shifting towards inference, which is the running of models after they have been trained. That part of the market places a bigger premium on speed, efficiency and cost. It opens the door to alternatives such as Google’s tensor processing units, or TPUs, Amazon’s Trainium chips and other custom designs built for narrower, more specific tasks. The artificial intelligence race is not moving away from infrastructure. It is moving deeper into it.

Not all shovels look the same anymore

This is where the old “just buy the shovel sellers” line starts to get a bit lazy. The shovels are no longer generic. Broadcom has signed a deal through 2031 to develop Google’s custom artificial intelligence chips and separately agreed to provide Anthropic access to about 3.5 gigawatts of artificial intelligence computing capacity from 2027. Google is also exploring additional chip designs with Marvell, including a memory processing unit and a new tensor processing unit aimed at running models more efficiently.

That changes the investor map. The earlier version of the AI trade was simple: Nvidia sells powerful chips, everyone queues up, end of story. The newer version is more crowded, more specialised and more strategic. Some customers want to reduce dependence on outside suppliers. Some want custom chips that lower costs for specific tasks. Some want tighter bundles that combine chips, software and cloud infrastructure into one sticky package. The profit pool may still sit with the picks and shovels, but now the tools are bespoke, the contracts are longer and switching costs may matter as much as the silicon itself. Slightly less poetic, perhaps, but much more useful.

Saxo Bank in-house framework.

Risks worth watching before the hard hats get carried away

There are still a few obvious traps. First, capacity can stay scarce until it suddenly does not. If hyperscalers start trimming capital expenditure, or if enterprise demand proves slower than expected, today’s shortages can become tomorrow’s overbuild. Second, custom chips are not magically safer than standard ones. They still face delays, software headaches and design missteps. The fact that Google has been working to make TPUs easier to use with popular developer tools is a useful reminder that hardware alone is not enough. Third, the whole chain remains concentrated. If a small number of foundries, toolmakers and cloud platforms control the bottlenecks, any disruption can travel far and fast.

The investor playbook

Separate the model winners from the infrastructure toll collectors. The overlap is real, but it is not always neat.
Watch hyperscaler earnings for comments on capacity, utilisation and inference, not just headline artificial intelligence revenue.
Treat custom chips as a sign of specialisation, not proof that Nvidia is finished.
Follow the full bundle: chips, cloud, software tools, and access to power and data-centre space.

Where the money may really land

The simplest way to read this moment is also the most useful. AI still looks like magic on the screen, but it increasingly behaves like heavy industry underneath. The Amazon-Anthropic deal says the real contest is not just who makes the smartest model. It is also who can secure the compute, book the capacity, and keep the infrastructure busy for years. That does not make the chatbot unimportant. It just means the economics may end up favouring the firms that own the rails behind it. In this phase of the AI race, the cleverest answer may still come from a model, but the fattest invoice may come from the machine room.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles Theme - Artificial intelligence Artificial Intelligence

Asia Market Quick Take – 21 April, 2026

Tue, 21 Apr 2026 01:00:00 Z

Key points:

Macro: Iran to send delegation to US for talks before ceasefire ends
Equities: Apple names John Ternus new CEO; Amazon+2.7% on $5B Anthropic investment
FX: Dollar dips slightly as oil-driven NOK outperforms amid Middle East tensions
Commodities: Brent drops up to 1.1% to $94.44 after Monday’s 5.6% gain
Fixed income: NZ bonds drop as OIS fully price three RBNZ hikes by year-end

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

Iran will send a delegation to Islamabad for new US talks before the ceasefire ends, reversing its earlier stance. Trump says he’s unlikely to extend the truce without a deal and will keep the Strait of Hormuz blocked until then. Key disputes include the strait’s status, Iran’s nuclear program, and regional tensions.
New Zealand’s annual inflation was 3.1% in March 2026, unchanged from December and above the 2.9% forecast. Housing and utilities led increases, driven by higher electricity and local rates, with food and transport also adding pressure. Inflation eased in clothing, communication, and recreation, while education was steady. Quarterly CPI rose 0.9%, up from 0.6% in Q4.
Canada’s annual inflation rose to 2.4% in March 2026 from 1.8%, just below the 2.5% forecast, mainly due to a jump in energy costs linked to Middle East conflict. Energy inflation swung to 3.9% from -9.3%, lifting transport inflation to 3.7%, while shelter and recreation/education also picked up. Food inflation eased to 4% from 5.4%. Monthly CPI rose 0.9%, driven by a 21.2% surge in gasoline prices.
Germany’s producer prices fell 0.2% year-on-year in March 2026, the smallest drop in a year, as energy prices declined less sharply and mineral oil products rose. Non-durable consumer goods fell on cheaper food, while capital, durable consumer, and intermediate goods increased. Excluding energy, prices rose 1.3%. Month-on-month, producer prices jumped 2.5%, driven by a 7.5% surge in energy costs.

Equities:

US - S&P 500 slipped 0.2% from its all-time high, halting a five-day advance amid uncertainty over peace talks between the US and Iran. The Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.3% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed. Apple shares slipped in late trading after the company announced that CEO Tim Cook will hand the reins to hardware boss John Ternus on September 1, when Cook will transition to executive chairman. Amazon shares rose 2.7% in after-hours trading on news it will invest $5 billion in Anthropic, with the potential for up to $20 billion more based on commercial milestones. Alaska Air Group withdrew its guidance, citing uncertainty around the cost of fuel from the war in Iran, with shares falling 4.9% after the bell.
EU - European equity markets declined as renewed Middle East tensions weighed on sentiment. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.8%, its biggest move since falling 1% on April 7. The DAX fell 1.2% to 24,417.80 in Frankfurt, while the FTSE 100 closed down 0.6% at 10,609.08 in London. The EURO STOXX 50 Index ended 1.24% lower at 5,982.63, its largest one-day point and percentage decline since March 26. SAP contributed the most to the Stoxx 600 decline, decreasing 3.9%, while Rolls-Royce led the FTSE 100 lower with a 3.7% drop. Commerzbank formally rejected UniCredit's takeover bid, with Chancellor Friedrich Merz saying his government rejects hostile and aggressive tactics in Germany's banking industry.
Asia - Asian stocks rose as investors shrugged off heightened tensions between the US and Iran to focus on prospects for further talks and strong local tech earnings. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.8% before paring most of its advance. South Korea's Kospi Index rose 0.4% to 6,219.09, with SK Hynix contributing the most to the index gain by increasing 3.4%. Stocks in Hong Kong led gains in the region, while South Korean shares erased their Iran war losses. Equity-index futures pointed to gains in Japan, Hong Kong and Australia for Tuesday's session as signs Iran may join talks with the US fostered cautious optimism about progress in the Middle East ahead of the looming ceasefire deadline.

Earnings this week:

Tuesday - General Electric, 3M, United Health
Wednesday - AT&T, Boeing, China Mobile, IBM, Tesla, Lam Research, Vertiv, GE Vernova, Boeing, Texas Instruments
Thursday - Lockheed Martin, American Express, Intel
Friday - Procter & Gamble
Sunday - Verizon

FX:

USD edged slightly lower on Monday, while the NOK led G-10 gains as oil prices climbed after renewed Middle East tensions undermined hopes for US–Iran peace talks. Analysts say the dollar’s tight range reflects uncertainty around US economic and policy outlooks, while NOK is buoyed by its oil-linked status, strong external accounts, and relatively high yields. USDNOK down 0.7% to 9.3150.
EUR gained 0.20% to $1.1790, snapping a two-session losing streak and posting its largest one-day percentage gain since April 14. Mizuho strategists expect the euro will probably head lower in the short-term as pricing for ECB interest-rate increases is unlikely to grow past the two hikes already reflected.
USD gained 0.12% to 158.82 JPY, rising for the sixth time in the past eight sessions. Demand for bullish yen exposure through options remains firm, with one-week risk reversals in USDJPY rallying to 121 basis points, puts over calls, the most bearish sentiment for the greenback since March 9.

Commodities:

Oil prices climbed following the latest rise of tensions between the United States and Iran, though the moves were more modest than earlier in the war. Crude lost some ground in the US session to trim Monday's opening jump, while brent crude fell as much as 1.1% to $94.44 a barrel after Monday’s 5.6% gain.
Gold consolidates as traders weigh possible US-Iran talks and the looming end of the cease-fire. The US and Iran plan to hold peace talks in Islamabad this week. Gold's trajectory will remain closely tied to the developments in the Middle East and their impact on energy markets and inflation expectations.
Copper cash-to-three-month spread was quoted at -$75.46 a ton on April 20 on the London Metal Exchange, decreasing $10.38 from the previous trading day. Top-20 brokers on the Shanghai Futures Exchange registered aggregate net-short positions of copper contracts across front months.

Fixed income:

US Treasuries saw a steady move higher over the US session, unwinding an opening gap lower and weakness seen over the Asia and early London sessions. The 10-year yield was little changed at 4.249% while the 30-year yield fell 0.5 basis points to 4.882%. Bank of America strategists recommend buying the belly of the curve, expecting them to rally as the market increases bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
New Zealand bonds dropped as faster-than-expected inflation fueled bets on Reserve Bank interest-rate hikes. The yield on the NZ 2-year note climbed 8 basis points to 3.50% while the 10-year debt advanced 4 basis points to 4.63%. Overnight-indexed swaps fully price in three RBNZ rate hikes by year-end.
Following Friday's sharp rally in Treasuries, open interest jumped in both bond and SOFR futures, indicating new long positions supporting the gains seen across the curve.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

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Oil is no longer just an energy story

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 09:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Higher oil now affects inflation, rate hopes and far more sectors than energy alone.
The pain often appears first in transport, travel, chemicals and thin-margin consumer businesses.
Oil has become a stress test for business quality. It shows which companies can absorb higher costs, protect margins and keep moving, and which ones start to creak as pressure builds.

Oil used to live on the commodities page. It now wanders into almost every other page of the market. That is the real shift. When crude rises because of a serious supply shock, it does not stay politely inside the energy sector. It moves into freight bills, airline fuel, fertiliser, food, inflation data, bond yields and, before long, equity valuations. On 17 April 2026, Brent crude pulled back as investors clung to the idea that the Strait of Hormuz might reopen and calm the market. By early 20 April 2026, that calm had proved fragile, with prices climbing again as the route stayed effectively constrained. This was not just another commodity wobble. It was the market treating oil as a real macro problem again.

The reason this matters now is simple. The Strait of Hormuz is not a niche shipping lane. The International Energy Agency says it carried nearly 20 million barrels a day of oil and oil products in 2025, roughly a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade. Alternative routes can redirect only 3.5 to 5.5 million barrels a day. In plain English, if that artery is squeezed, the world feels it quickly and not very selectively.

The first hit lands in the real economy

The market often talks about oil as if it were a chart. Companies experience it as a bill. Airlines are the clearest example because fuel sits close to the heart of their cost base. In March, airline shares were hit as oil jumped above 105 USD a barrel, while jet fuel prices surged and fares rose. By 17 April, Singapore jet fuel closed at 204.13 USD a barrel, more than double the 93.45 USD level on 27 February, the day before the war began. That is what makes higher oil dangerous. It does not only raise costs. It forces businesses to choose between higher prices, lower margins, or both. None of those options wins awards at earnings season.

The same logic spreads well beyond travel. Oil and gas are inputs into chemicals, packaging, plastics, transport and parts of agriculture. Federal Reserve official Alberto Musalem said on 15 April that the oil shock was already feeding into gasoline, shipping, travel and food through higher fertiliser and related costs. This is how a barrel becomes broad inflation pressure. It starts at the pump, then sneaks into supply chains, and finally turns up in places investors hoped would stay boring. Boring, sadly, has left the building.

Then the bond market starts paying attention

Higher oil matters twice. First through costs, then through interest rates. If energy stays expensive for long enough, inflation becomes harder to bring down. That matters because lower inflation is what gives central banks room to cut rates. Musalem said the oil shock could keep core inflation near 3% and rates on hold for some time. Reuters also noted on 14 April that oil prices were about 40% higher than before the conflict, Treasury yields had risen, and markets had largely ruled out the rate cuts they expected earlier this year.

That second step is where the story stops being “about energy” and starts becoming “about equities”. When bond yields rise and rate cuts get delayed, the pressure spreads to the parts of the market that depend most on cheap money and patient optimism. Rate-sensitive growth stocks feel it because more of their value sits in profits expected far into the future. Consumer businesses with weak pricing power feel it because higher costs meet a customer who is already paying more for fuel and food. Industrials feel it through freight and input costs. The barrel rolls downhill, and many sectors are standing at the bottom.

The new market map is less about sectors and more about stamina

This is why the useful investor question changes. It is no longer enough to ask which sector benefits from higher oil. The better question is which business models can absorb it. Companies with strong margins, essential demand and room to pass on costs usually cope better than businesses that run on thin margins, heavy fuel bills or constant financing optimism. In that sense, oil becomes a stress test for quality. It separates companies that can bend from those that snap, or at least complain very loudly on the next conference call.

The macro version of that stress test is already visible. The International Monetary Fund said on 14 April that its “reference” outlook assumes oil normalises in the second half of 2026, but it warned the world is drifting closer to a worse scenario. In that adverse case, oil stays around 100 USD this year and global growth slows to 2.5%. In the severe case, oil averages 110 USD in 2026 and the world edges close to recession. That is why oil matters even for investors who never touch an energy stock. It can change the growth and rate backdrop for everything else.

That is also why our HALO shortlist matters here. Heavy Asset, Low Obsolescence companies often prove more durable when oil moves from energy story to market stress test, because they usually sit closer to essential demand, real assets and steadier pricing power.

Risks worth watching

The first risk is duration. A short oil spike is unpleasant. A persistent one changes behaviour. Watch freight costs, jet fuel, diesel and food-linked inputs, not just headline crude. The second risk is inflation expectations. Central banks can often look through a brief energy shock, but they worry when households and businesses start acting as if higher inflation will stick. The third risk is false relief. Oil has already swung sharply on ceasefire headlines and reopening hopes, only for supply fears to return. In this market, one optimistic headline can move prices, but it cannot move tankers, repair infrastructure or rebuild trust quite so quickly.

When oil becomes a quality test

Oil used to be easy to file away as “the energy story”. That folder no longer works. When a key supply route is under pressure and crude stops behaving like a quiet input, the effects spread into transport, food, inflation, interest rates and finally the market’s view of what a company is worth. That is why this matters for long-term investors.

The next big oil move may not tell you only what happens to energy shares. It may tell you which businesses have pricing power, which consumers are under strain, and which rate-sensitive parts of the market still rely on a friendlier world. Oil starts in the barrel. It ends in the whole portfolio.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles

Asia Market Quick Take – 20 April, 2026

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 20 April, 2026

Key points:

Macro: US seizes Iran vessel; Iran reclaims control of Straits of Hormuz
Equities: US futures -0.9% after notching new highs as Iran says SoH remains closed
FX:USD strengthened on the renewed Iran tension; AUD and NZD fell
Commodities:Oil prices recover losses as WTI crude surges 7.5% above $90
Fixed income: Treasury yields rebound, reversing Friday’s drop

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

US forces seized an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman after it ignored orders while leaving Hormuz, while Iran targeted ships and claimed control of the strait, citing US violations of a ceasefire. Hopes for peace have faded despite renewed talks, and the prolonged conflict has triggered a major energy shock, stoking inflation risks and fears of a global slowdown.
Fed’s Waller said policymakers understand inflation risks and may hold rates if war-driven inflation coincides with weaker jobs. Fed’s Daly said spending remains solid, but the outlook hinges on how long oil prices and the conflict persist.

Equities:

US: The S&P 500 closed at a fresh record on Friday, gaining 1.2% as the index jumped more than 3% for the third consecutive week. The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.3% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.8%. Big Tech stocks powered the rally, with the Magnificent Seven technology giants up 20% since the March 30 bottom, reversing a 17% decline. However, US stock futures fell 0.8% to 0.9% in Sunday evening trading as renewed Iran tensions and the Strait of Hormuz standoff sapped risk sentiment.Eli Lilly is in advanced talks to acquireKelonia Therapeutics for more than $2 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. QXO agreed to acquire insulation products company TopBuild for $17 billion. Meta plans its first wave of 8,000 layoffs on May 20.
EU: European stocks advanced for a fourth straight week on growing optimism that the Middle East conflict may be nearing an end. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 1.6% on Friday with most sectors rising, led by travel and leisure shares as airline stocks rallied. Energy shares dropped the most in a year, dragged down by Shell and BP as oil prices plunged. The DAX rose 2.3% to 24,702.24 in Frankfurt, the FTSE 100 climbed 0.7% to 10,667.63 in London, and the Swiss Market Index gained 1.9% in Zurich. ASML, Infineon, and Rolls-Royce were among the top performers across European markets.
Asia: Asian markets opened mixed as renewed Middle East tensions overshadowed last week's strong rally. The Nikkei Stock Average opened 0.6% higher at 58,821.16, led by auto stocks with Honda Motor up 2.6% and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries 3.3% higher as investorsmaintained hopes for possible US-Iran peace talks. South Korea's Kospi opened 0.4% higher at 6,213.92 despite the won sliding as much as 1.5% on oil price jumps. China's ChiNext Index rose 6.7% last week to the highest since 2015, dominated by technology and new-energy names. Orient Securities plans to acquire a 100% stake in Shanghai Securities through a combination of A-share issuance and cash payment, creating a firm with around $86 billion in assets. However, futures markets pointed to a bumpy start as the continued Strait of Hormuz standoff revived uncertainty that Wall Street had been eager to look past.

Earnings this week:

Tuesday - General Electric, 3M, United Health
Wednesday - AT&T, Boeing, China Mobile, IBM, Tesla, Lam Research, Vertiv, GE Vernova, Boeing, Texas Instruments
Thursday- Lockheed Martin, American Express, Intel
Friday - Procter & Gamble
Sunday- Verizon

FX:

USD strengthened broadly, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rising 0.2% as investors sought safe havens amid renewed Iran tensions, paring last week's 0.5% decline.
AUD fell 0.5% to 0.7140 after climbing 1.6% last week, while the NZDalso declined as the US seizure of an Iranian vessel and Tehran's reimposition of restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz sapped risk sentiment.
JPY weakened 0.2% to 158.92 against dollar after being the best-performing G10 currency on Friday, with near-term resistance around 160 continuing to hold.

Commodities:

Oil prices surged with West Texas Intermediate crude jumping 7.5% to $90.17 per barrel and Brent crude climbing 6.5% to $96.27 per barrel as Iran accused the United States of breaking the ceasefire and the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively shut to commercial shipping.
Gold fell to near $4,780 an ounce in early trading, wiping out much of last week's 1.7% gain, as renewed fears of energy-supply disruptions stoked inflation concerns.
Silver dropped 1.6% in early Asian trade amid renewed inflation concerns spurred by rebounding oil prices stemming from signs of re-escalating Middle East tensions.

Fixed income:

Treasury yields reversed Friday’s decline rising 2 to 3 basis points across the curve as oil prices climbed on renewed Iran tensions, with the 2-year note yield adding 3 basis points to 3.74% and the 10-year yield advancing 3 basis points to 4.28%.
The balance of risks points to a steeper yield curve as traders brace for potential near-term interest rate cuts and a shrinking balance sheet under a Federal Reserve led by Kevin Warsh, whose confirmation hearing is scheduled for April 21.
Japanese government bonds are expected to rise as Middle East tensions escalate, though gains are likely to be limited due to persistently high oil prices, with JGB futures edging higher in early Tokyo trade.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration. This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance. The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

Why Netflix fell after a strong quarter

Fri, 17 Apr 2026 11:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Netflix beat first-quarter numbers, but second-quarter guidance arrived a little lighter than investors wanted.
The real story is shifting from subscriber growth to monetisation, retention and engagement across formats.
Netflix still looks strong, but the bar is now high enough to make “good” feel oddly disappointing.

Netflix gave investors a familiar sort of surprise on 16 April 2026: a strong quarter looking back, and a slightly softer story looking ahead. The stock closed flat at 107.79 USD in regular trading, then slipped to 97.35 USD after hours, down 9.7%, after management guided for second-quarter earnings per share of 0.78 USD and revenue of 12.57 billion USD, both below Bloomberg consensus.

That reaction says a lot about where Netflix sits today. The business still delivers solid growth, with first-quarter revenue up 16% year on year to 12.25 billion USD and earnings per share at 1.23 USD, but the market is now far less interested in what Netflix just did than in how smoothly it can keep the engine running from here.

Q2 2026 Forecast: Company Guidance vs. Bloomberg Consensus

Saxo Bank analysis. Netflix's Q2 guidance against Bloomberg consensus estimates across key metrics. Chart generated using ASKB by BloombergAI.

That mix matters because it shows where Netflix now sits in market psychology. It is no longer judged like a fast-growing newcomer. It is judged like a very large, very successful platform that must keep proving there is another lever to pull. This quarter said there are several levers. The market just wanted them pulled harder, faster, and preferably all at once.

A beat on paper, a miss in spirit

On the surface, the quarter looks solid. Revenue grew faster than expected, operating income improved to roughly 4.0 billion USD, and operating margin reached 32.3%. Free cash flow rose sharply to 5.1 billion USD. The catch is that part of the earnings boost came from a 2.8 billion USD termination fee tied to Netflix’s abandoned media deal, so investors were never going to treat all of that improvement as repeatable. Great quarter, yes. Clean quarter, not entirely.

That is why guidance mattered more than the headline beat. Netflix said second-quarter content amortisation will be the highest year-on-year growth point of 2026 before easing later in the year. In simple terms, that means the accounting cost of shows and films hits harder now, which squeezes near-term margins even if the longer-term content slate stays healthy. Markets tend to greet that kind of nuance with all the patience of a toddler in a supermarket queue.

The business is growing up, not slowing down

The more useful reading is that Netflix is evolving from a pure subscriber story into a monetisation and engagement story. Management kept full-year revenue guidance at 50.7 billion USD to 51.7 billion USD and still expects advertising revenue to reach about 3 billion USD in 2026, roughly double last year’s level. It also said recent price changes have gone well. That matters because it shows Netflix can still charge more while broadening the business beyond the simple old formula of “add members, raise price, repeat.”

Netflix is also trying to become what it calls a “must-have service”, the first place people go for entertainment and the last they cancel. That ambition now stretches beyond films and series into live events, video podcasts, games and a redesigned mobile experience with a vertical discovery feed. Whether every experiment works is almost beside the point. The broader industry implication is clear: streaming is no longer just a library business. It is becoming a time-spent business, competing not only with other platforms but with every screen-based habit people have.

Why the industry should pay attention

Netflix’s letter makes one point especially well: this company is still large, but not finished. It says it reaches an audience approaching 1 billion people, yet still accounts for only about 5% of global TV viewing and has penetrated less than 45% of its broadband household market. That is a useful reminder for long-term investors. The story is no longer about whether streaming wins. It already has. The question is which platforms become habit-forming enough to monetise that win across ads, pricing, formats and retention.

This also helps explain why Reed Hastings stepping down from the board mattered to sentiment, even if it changes little in daily operations. When a company is shifting from founder era to scaled institution, investors become more sensitive to execution. A guidance miss and a symbolic leadership handover landing together is not fatal. It is just not the sort of combination that calms a nervous market.

Risks worth watching

The main risk is not that Netflix suddenly stops growing. It is that growth becomes more expensive, more incremental and harder to impress investors with. If content costs keep rising faster than revenue, margin pressure will return. If advertising grows but remains too small to move the whole group, that future pillar stays promising rather than proven. And if newer bets such as live events, podcasts and games lift engagement without lifting profit, investors may decide the story is getting broader but not better. Early warning signs are simple: weaker margin delivery, slower ad progress, or evidence that price rises start to hurt retention rather than help revenue.

When good is no longer enough

Netflix’s quarter was a useful reminder that stock market reactions and business quality are not always the same thing. The company delivers a strong first quarter, keeps growing, keeps widening its offer, and still gets marked down because the next quarter looks a touch less shiny. That may feel harsh, but it is also the cost of success.

At this scale, Netflix is no longer rewarded for simply being good. It is measured against the idea that it should be better every time. For long-term investors, that is the real lesson here. The business still looks strong. The stock simply reminds us that when expectations become premium entertainment, even a hit quarter can get a mixed review.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles Netflix Inc. Netflix

Oil, batteries and a cheaper Tesla: the next phase of the EV race

Fri, 17 Apr 2026 09:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Tesla’s reported cheaper-car pivot looks like a return to EV basics, not a side story.
Higher oil prices help the EV case, but they do not fix weak margins.
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. (CATL) shows that battery leaders may capture more value than many carmakers.

Tesla spends a lot of time being discussed as a robotaxi, software and artificial intelligence story. That is fair, up to a point. But the latest development says something simpler and, for investors, probably more useful. Tesla is reportedly working on a smaller, cheaper electric vehicle, after years of pushing the market to focus on autonomy and futuristic optionality. That matters because it suggests the old EV battle is back in charge: price, scale, battery cost and who can still make money when the shiny story meets a tired consumer.

That is the real hook here. Tesla is not just updating a product plan. It is admitting, indirectly, that the market has changed. In the first quarter of 2026, Tesla produced more than 408,000 vehicles but delivered just over 358,000, leaving a gap of more than 50,000 units. That is not a disaster, but it is a reminder that demand is no longer a one-way escalator. Tesla reports first-quarter earnings on 22 April 2026, so the next real test is whether management explains this as a temporary wobble or as part of a harder, more price-sensitive market.

Back to the driveway

Tesla’s reported cheaper model matters because it looks like a reality check. A lower-priced compact sport utility vehicle could help volumes, keep factories busier and give Tesla a better answer to Chinese rivals and to a more cautious buyer in Europe and the United States. It also comes with a catch the size of a showroom. Cheaper cars usually mean thinner margins, unless battery costs fall fast enough to compensate. That is why this is more than a Tesla story. It says the EV market is entering a phase where affordability may matter more than aspiration. Flashy launch events are nice. Monthly payments still tend to win arguments.

The broader electric vehicle backdrop is mixed rather than broken. Reuters reported that global EV registrations rose 3% in March 2026, with Europe up 37% to nearly 540,000 units, helped by higher petrol prices. North America, by contrast, fell 30% after the end of tax credits. That split is important. It shows that EV demand still responds to economics, but those economics now depend more on fuel prices, incentives and pricing discipline than on novelty alone. In other words, the market is growing up. Like all adults, it has started reading the energy bill.

Oil has entered the chat

This is where the current oil backdrop matters. Brent crude was around 94.93 USD a barrel on 15 April 2026, while West Texas Intermediate crude was around 91.29 USD, even after some cooling from earlier spikes. Physical oil grades briefly surged far above futures prices during the recent disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. For drivers, and therefore for carmakers, that means one thing: uncertainty at the pump is back. And when fuel becomes a headache, EVs and hybrids start looking less like ideology and more like maths.

That does not mean Tesla automatically wins. Higher oil prices can support EV demand, but they do not solve competition, financing costs or product fatigue. They simply improve the category’s pitch. For long-term investors, that is a useful distinction. Oil can lift interest in EVs, but only the right product mix, the right battery cost and the right manufacturing execution turn that interest into profits. This is one reason Tesla’s cheaper-car move matters now. It is a response to an EV market that may be helped by oil, but no longer rescued by excitement alone.

Why battery makers matter more now

If Tesla’s reported move is the reality check, CATL, or Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., is the second act. The Chinese battery giant beat first-quarter expectations this week, with profit up 48.5% year on year and revenue up 52.5%. Its share of the global electric vehicle battery market also climbed to 42.1% in early 2026, a reminder that more of the industry’s power is shifting toward the companies that control the battery bill. CATL’s own 2025 annual report said it held 39.2% of the global power battery market and 30.4% of global energy storage battery shipments. In February, it added another sign of where the market is heading, saying it would supply sodium-ion batteries for the world’s first mass-produced sodium-ion passenger car with Changan, due by mid-2026.

Why does that matter for Tesla and for investors looking at the wider EV chain? Because batteries are no longer a background component. They shape cost, charging speed, cold-weather performance, supply security and, increasingly, the balance of power in the industry. CATL is also reportedly considering another Hong Kong fundraising, which underlines a broader point: this industry still needs vast amounts of capital, and the companies providing the chemistry and scale may end up with more bargaining power than the brands selling the badge. Carmakers still sell the dream. Battery leaders increasingly control the economics.

The road can still get slippery

There are at least three risks to watch. First, Tesla’s cheaper-car pivot could help deliveries but pressure profitability if price cuts outrun cost savings. Second, oil could fall back quickly if geopolitics ease, which would soften one of the category’s current demand tailwinds. Third, battery leadership could make the EV market more unequal, with suppliers and low-cost manufacturers taking more value while premium carmakers fight harder for it. Early warning signs are straightforward: Tesla’s margin commentary on 22 April, inventory trends, battery pricing language from CATL, and whether Europe’s recent demand strength lasts once energy panic fades.

Investor playbook

Watch whether cheaper EVs expand demand, or simply move the same demand down-market.
Follow battery leaders as closely as car brands. The chemistry race now shapes the profit race.
Treat oil as a demand variable, not a magic wand. It can help adoption, but not fix execution.

Where the real EV battle sits

Tesla’s latest move brings the story back to the driveway. For all the talk of robotaxis, chips and humanoid robots, the near-term question is still whether Tesla can build a more affordable car that people want, at a margin investors can live with. That is why the CATL angle matters so much.

In this phase of the EV race, the winners may not be the companies with the loudest future story, but the ones with the best battery access, the lowest cost curve and the clearest answer to a simple customer question: why should I buy this now? In the electric age, the dream still matters. The battery bill may matter more.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Highlighted articles Tesla Motors Theme - Electric vehicles

Can earnings keep outrunning the macro shock? Banks say yes for now. Luxury says not so fast

Thu, 16 Apr 2026 08:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

The same macro shock helps banks that sell liquidity, hedging and advice, but hurts luxury groups that need calm and travel.
Strong bank earnings do not prove the economy is fine. They partly reflect unsettled markets doing what unsettled markets do.
Luxury weakness looks more like a mix of tourism pressure, Middle East disruption and softer discretionary demand than broad consumer collapse.

A messy macro backdrop often gets described as one giant verdict on the economy. This week’s earnings say that is too neat. Big United States banks show that volatility, trading and dealmaking can still turn uncertainty into revenue. Luxury groups show that geopolitical stress, disrupted travel and fragile high-end demand can hit sales rather quickly. Same shock, very different plumbing.

Source: Saxo Bank analysis. For illustrative purposes only and based on selected market reactions discussed in the article. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

The market reaction made the contrast clear without needing a spreadsheet. Bank shares generally held up or moved higher after earnings, while luxury names came under clear pressure. Investors were not making a grand judgment on the whole economy. They were reacting to which business models can still turn uncertainty into revenue, and which ones rely more heavily on confidence, travel and a steady spending mood.

When chaos becomes a product

For large banks, a messy quarter does not automatically mean a bad one. Recent results from JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America showed that trading desks, advisory work and deal activity can all stay busy when markets are unsettled. That is the key point. Banks do not just sit and watch volatility. In some parts of the business, they earn from it.

When markets swing, clients tend to do more, not less. They rebalance portfolios, hedge risks, raise capital and ask advisers for help. That can support earnings even when the wider backdrop feels noisy. It is a useful reminder that macro stress is not always just a cost. For parts of finance, it can also be demand.

Still, this is not a simple all-clear. Investors know that trading-driven strength can be helpful without being fully durable. If volatility cools, if rate expectations shift again, or if companies become more cautious about deals and listings, that earnings support may look less powerful. So the bank story is strong, but it is not effortless. It depends on the kind of activity that often comes with unsettled markets, not calm ones.

Luxury needs calm, confidence and boarding passes

Luxury looks almost like the mirror opposite, but only almost. Recent updates from Hermès, Kering and LVMH suggest the sector is not collapsing, but it is clearly more exposed to today’s geopolitical strain than parts of finance. The pressure is showing up less through a broad demand cliff and more through softer travel flows, weaker airport retail, disruption in the Middle East and a consumer mood that still looks cautious rather than carefree.

Hermès is a good example. Sales still grew 5.6% at constant exchange rates, but that was below Bloomberg expectations of 7.44%. In other words, this was not a disaster. It was a reminder that even the strongest luxury names can feel it when tourism slows and regional traffic weakens.

Kering’s message was more fragile. Gucci sales fell 8% in the quarter compared to last year, much worse than the 4.3% drop analysts expected on Bloomberg. That matters because Gucci is still the emotional and financial centre of the Kering story. It also reinforces the broader point that luxury does not just sell products. It sells confidence, movement and a certain ease of spending, all of which become harder to sustain when flights are disrupted and headlines turn tense.

LVMH adds a more balanced layer. Group sales rose 1% organically, but that still fell short of analysts expectations, as compiled by Bloomberg. The group still showed resilience in parts of the business, which helps explain why this is not a sector in free fall. But the broader message is still clear enough: luxury has become more exposed to travel disruption and regional instability at a time when demand was only gradually finding its footing again. That does not mean the luxury story is broken. It means the sector needs a calmer world more than banks do.

What this actually tells investors

The real lesson is not that banks are “safe” and luxury is “broken.” It is that earnings quality depends on what a company is paid to do. Banks earn from activity, spreads, hedging and advice. Luxury earns from desire, confidence, mobility and mood. When oil rises, headlines darken and routes become less predictable, those ingredients do not all move in the same direction. Some businesses get busier. Others get quieter.

Risks worth watching

The first risk is reading too much into one strong bank quarter. Trading revenue can be excellent precisely because markets are unsettled, which means it is helpful but not always repeatable. The second risk is assuming luxury weakness is only regional and temporary. If higher energy prices, weaker travel and softer confidence start feeding into broader discretionary spending, the pressure could spread beyond the Middle East link. The third risk sits between the two: if volatility stays high for the wrong reasons, it may lift trading desks in the short run but still cool borrowing, listings and corporate confidence later on.

Investor playbook

Separate macro headlines from business-model mechanics. Ask what actually drives revenue when markets turn noisy.
Watch deal pipelines and capital-markets activity, not just trading spikes, to judge whether bank strength is broadening.
Track tourism, airport retail and Gulf demand as early signals for luxury, especially in Europe.
Stay diversified across business models, because the same shock rarely sends every sector the same invoice.

Same storm, different roofs

The neat story would be that strong banks mean the economy is coping and weak luxury means the consumer is cracking. This week’s results argue for more humility. Banks are benefiting from a market that is busy, defensive and still willing to transact. Luxury is being hit by a world that feels less easy to travel through and less relaxed to spend in. Both can be true at once. For investors, that is the useful part. Macro shocks do not produce one verdict. They expose which companies get paid for turbulence and which ones quietly depend on calm. Same storm, different roofs, and very different earnings calls.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles

Asia Market Quick Take – 16 April, 2026

Thu, 16 Apr 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 16 April, 2026

Key points:

Macro: US & Iran looking to extend ceasefire to allow time for talks
Equities: Nasdaq reaches a new all time high; MSFT has best gain in a year
FX: Dollar slides on ceasefire optimism; CNH outperforms, JPY stays soft
Commodities: Commodities stabilise in midst of current ceasefire
Fixed income: Treasuries fell, yields rebounded from >2‑week closing lows

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

Washington and Tehran are weighing a ceasefire extension to allow more peace talks, while the US naval blockade keeps the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and markets on edge. Iran has warned it could retaliate by suspending shipments in nearby waters, and a second round of talks is expected to focus on reopening the strait and Iran’s nuclear program.
US businesses pulled back on hiring and spending due to uncertainty from the Iran war, according to the Federal Reserve's beige book report.
President Trump threatened to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell if he doesn't step down when his term expires on May 15.
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said the central bank is in no rush to raise interest rates despite the energy shock from the Iran conflict, noting markets got ahead of themselves with rate hike bets.
ECB officials are said to be leaning toward keeping interest rates unchanged in April, postponing their verdict on whether the Iran war fallout warrants a response.
Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said authorities are prepared for bold action on foreign exchange if needed after discussions with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
US import prices rose 0.8% m/m in March 2026 after 0.9% in February, below the 2% forecast, with fuel up 2.9% and nonfuel imports up 0.6%. They were 2.1% higher y/y, the biggest rise since December 2024.

Equities:

US: S&P 500 surged 0.8% to a record high of 7,022.95, closing above 7,000 for the first time since January, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.4% to reach a fresh all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%. Technology stocks led gains, with Microsoft rising 4.6% for its best daily performance in almost a year and Tesla climbing 6.7% for its largest percentage increase since November 2025. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley posted strong earnings, with Bank of America reporting a 17% profit jump and shares rising 1.8%. Carrier Global was the worst performer in the S&P 500, down over 10%. Robinhood Markets had the largest increase, rising 10.4%.Allbirds makes an announcement to pivot from shoemaking to AI infrastructure, resulting in a 582% gain.
EU: European stocks retreated, with the Stoxx 600 Index falling 0.4% from a six-week high as disappointing earnings from regional heavyweights weighed on sentiment. Luxury stocks were the biggest drag, with Hermes plunging 8.2% as the Middle East war dented sales and Kering slumping 9.3% as Gucci sales disappointed. Dutch chipmaking equipment giant ASML dropped 4.2% after its strong earnings report failed to impress investors following a 33% rally this year. The DAX in Germany rose 0.09% to 24,066.70, while the FTSE 100 in London fell 0.47% to 10,559.58. The Swiss Market Index closed 0.38% lower.
Asia: Asian stocks gained as the US and Iran stepped up efforts to arrange a second round of peace talks, reviving hopes for an end to hostilities in the Middle East. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.4%, led by gains in TSMC and Samsung Electronics. South Korea's Kospi outperformed, rising 2.1% to 6,091.39, its highest closing level since February 27, with Samsung Electronics contributing the most to the index gain by increasing 2.2%. The Nikkei Stock Average rose 0.4% to 58,134.24 on Wednesday, with futures up 0.6% at 58,620 on the SGX. Elliott Investment Management took a significant stake in Daikin Industries and urged the Japanese manufacturer to address undervaluation via margin expansion and higher shareholder returns. CATL’s Q1 2026 earnings beat expectations, with net income up 49% to 20.74b yuan and revenue up 52% to 129.13b yuan, supported by better ESS mix and cost control. It’s strengthening mineral supply, exploring up to US$5b fundraising.

Earnings this week:

Thursday: Taiwan Semiconductor, Netflix, Moutai, Pepsico

FX:

USDextended declines for an eighth straight day, posting its longest losing streak since June 2020, down about 1.9% over the period on optimism that Washington and Tehran are closer to extending a ceasefire.
The offshore CNH rose to a three-year high versus the dollar this week and is one of only a few currencies that managed to rise since the Iran conflict started, reflecting China's perceived resilience to the energy shock.
JPY edged lower against the dollar as expectations retreated that the Bank of Japan will hike rates this month, with USDJPY up 0.1% to 158.94, though traders kept bolstering their expectations on a stronger yen over the coming month. The JPY has hit a decade-low against the SGD.
EUR gained for eight straight sessions, rising 0.02% to $1.1800, its highest five pm New York rate since February 27, 2026.
AUD registered the best performance against the US dollar among 14 major currencies, strengthening 0.5%.

Commodities:

Oil prices stabilized after a nearly 8% slide on Tuesday, with WTI futures steady as the US and Iran considered extending their ceasefire by another two weeks to allow more time to negotiate a peace agreement.
Gold edged higher above $4,810/oz after a 1.1% drop on hopes for a two‑week US–Iran ceasefire extension easing inflation worries, even as Hormuz traffic remains choked by a US blockade and Iranian restrictions.
The global silver market is expected to remain in a deficit for a sixth consecutive year amid robust demand for bars and coins and declining supplies, with the 2026 deficit projected to widen by 15% to 46.3 million troy ounces.
Copper edged lower as traders eyed the prospect of peace negotiations between the US and Iran, with the copper cash-to-three-month spread falling $27.33 to -$58.84 a ton on the London Metal Exchange.

Fixed income:

Treasuries fell, lifting yields from their lowest closing levels in more than two weeks, with US government bond yields two to four basis points higher on the day, as oil prices steadied with Middle East supply curtailed by the US war on Iran.
Foreign holdings of US Treasuries climbed by the most in a year in February, hitting a new record high of $9.49 trillion, led by gains in the Canadian and Saudi stockpiles.
The IMF warned that the escalating scale of US debt issuance is undermining the premium Treasuries have commanded from investors, with the increase in US Treasury security supply compressing the safety premium and pushing up borrowing costs globally.

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