Chief Investment Officer
Summary: Another week, another Brexit vote. PM Johnson keeps trying and pushing for a Brexit by October 31st. Meanwhile Labour is trying to force a 2nd vote and to stall process to force extension to minimum January 31st. Saxo Bank sees 75% chance of Brexit before January 31st
Someone has to do it……the Brexit update ….!!!
Today, Monday will see big maneuvering by both sides to set the agenda in the Commons today. The Speaker John Bercow will rule on whether Government can bring forward a “meaningful vote” on its withdrawal agreement (source: Evening Standard). The potential outcomes excellently diagrammed by The Guardian below.
Furthermore judges are sitting and deciding if the unsigned letter asking for extension is in violation of the Benn act. “The Prime minister sent a total of three letters: An unsigned photocopy of the request he was obliged to send under the Benn act, an explanatory letter from the the UK ambassador to the EU and a personal letter explaining why Downing Street did not want an extension” – (Source: The Guardian)
The short-version including links:
After initial sell-off into Asian open GBPUSD has slowly been moving higher…1.2930 in time of writing… 1.2980 old high. Downing streets claims to have the votes to pass the Withdrawal agreement if given straight vote Monday. Labour is confident Speaker Bercow will stop this vote setting up Tuesday for 2nd reading of Withdrawal bill.
Unlikely we will have resolution in next 24 hours on this vote, the most likely remains a long week including next weekend being used to prepare October 31st exit from EU.
Probabilities according to Saxo:
The momentum right now is to get deal done, but it’s a very fluid situation which we will keep updating…
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Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Uncover the shifting focus in 2024's FX markets towards growth resilience and relativity, away from bond yields and inflation stories.
Embrace the metal revolution on the commodity market in the coming year, with a focus on gold, silver, platinum, copper, and aluminum.
The gloominess of geopolitical conflicts and the repetitive nature of political agendas. What else does 2024 hold in store for us?
The disheartening cycle of unresolved geopolitical conflicts, the rise of polarizing political parties, and the stagnation of productivity.
Understand China's political landscape in Q4 2023 and the impact on counter-cyclical initiatives, with a focus on the pivotal Q1 2024.
