Having correctly predicted the last three recessions, a negative shift in US credit impulse is a reliable indication of a market downturn. Despite a recent move into positive territory, it’s still hovering dangerously close to the risk zone. Learn more
With leading economies starting to slow and key indicators in the risk zone, find out whether a global recession is on the horizon and how you can position yourself with Saxo.
Are the charts pointing to a recession?
Following a long downward trend that began in 2014, US yield spreads hit their lowest level since the 2008 recession in December 2018. If they turn negative, a recession is usually projected to arrive within 12 months. Learn more
The LEI examines 10 leading indicators to arrive at a growth or decline rate for the US economy. While growth is still positive it is starting to slow, and a negative move is usually a strong indication of an upcoming recession. Learn more
How to trade in bear markets
A simple buy-and-hold tactic is fraught with risk during a market downturn. By hedging existing positions, or investing in safe-haven assets, you can offset the risk of falling markets and focus on preserving capital. Find out more
Certain asset classes, sectors and industries tend to perform better during different stages of the macro cycle, so you could consider rebalancing your asset allocation to adapt to a bear market. Find out more
Fixed income market: the week ahead
IMF WEO Comment: France among the worst performing economies in 2020
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