Saxo News & Research - Videos

Platform feature of the week - Analysts Consensus

Thu, 07 May 2026 11:51:00 Z

Head of Digital Marketing, Vincent, tells us how Analysts Consensus give him a clear breakdown of analysts’ stock ratings - making it his favourite feature on Saxo’s platforms.

Saxo

Topics: Thought Starters

One Product vs. Many: The Difference Shows

Tue, 05 May 2026 10:01:00 Z

One Product vs. Many: The Difference Shows

Why Spreading Risk Across Multiple Asset Types Can Matter for Investors

For many investors, investing often starts with a single product type. We tend to invest in things we already know, and for many people, that will be stocks. That’s a natural place to begin. But over time, market ups and downs can highlight an important question: What happens when everything you own moves in the same direction at the same time?

One way investors try to manage this challenge is by spreading risk across multiple asset types. This concept is often referred to as multi-asset or multi-product investing. Recent data from Saxo’s own client base offers useful insight into how this approach has played out in practice.

What Saxo’s Client Data Shows

You have most likely already heard about diversification and the importance of a diversified portfolio, so let’s compare the performance of single-asset vs. multi-asset portfolios. Looking at five years of data from Saxo’s clients, a clear pattern emerges:
Clients who invested across multiple product types tended, on average, to experience more stable and often stronger outcomes than those who focused on a single product type.

In this context:

Single-product investors are clients who invest in just one type of product within their portfolio (for example, only stocks).
Multi-product investors, also referred to as multi-asset investors, are clients who invest across multiple product types (for example, a combination of stocks, ETFs, or other instruments).

Performance is measured as profit or loss over the year relative to the investor’s average total assets, providing a consistent basis for comparison.

A Smoother Ride Through Different Market Conditions

The differences become particularly visible during challenging market periods. In 2022, markets were difficult across the globe. Saxo’s data shows that:

Single-asset investors experienced a deeper average decline.
Multi-asset investors also faced losses, but the drawdown was meaningfully smaller.

This highlights an important point for less experienced investors:
when markets fall sharply, having exposure to more than one type of asset can help reduce the impact of extreme movements.

Participation When Markets Recover

In more positive market years, the data shows that multi-asset investors did not “miss out” on recovery phases.

In 2023, 2024, and 2025, multi-product investors, on average, achieved higher annual performance figures than single-product investors.
This suggests that diversification doesn’t necessarily mean giving up growth. A diversified portfolio can still allow participation when markets move upward, while helping manage downside risk.

Why This Matters for Investors

For investors who are not monitoring markets every day or adjusting positions frequently, diversification can play an important role in risk management rather than return maximisation.

Based on Saxo’s client data, spreading investments across different product types may help:

Reduce the severity of losses in difficult market environments
Smooth overall portfolio performance from year to year
Lower the emotional stress that can come from large swings in portfolio value

This can be especially relevant for retail investors with limited market experience, where sharp losses may lead to emotional decision-making at the wrong time.

What multi-asset investing is - and isn’t

It’s important to be clear about what this data does not imply.

Diversification does not eliminate risk
Losses can still occur, even in diversified portfolios
Past outcomes do not guarantee future results

What the data does show is that, historically, Saxo clients who spread their investments across multiple product types tended to experience more resilient outcomes over time, compared to those concentrated in a single product.

In Summary

Saxo’s client data over the past five years suggests that:

Investing across multiple product types has historically been associated with more stable and often stronger outcomes
Diversification may help soften the impact of difficult market years
A multi-asset approach can support long-term investing by managing risk rather than relying on a single market outcome

For retail investors, understanding how different assets behave — and why spreading risk can matter — is a key step toward building confidence in navigating financial markets.

This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.

The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.

Topics: Macro Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke Macro ETF Stocks

Saxo Market Compass - 4 May 2026

Mon, 04 May 2026 16:49:00 Z

Saxo Weekly Market Compass – 4 May 2026

Markets navigated a dense mix of earnings, central bank decisions, and geopolitical tension, with oil acting as the dominant macro driver throughout the week.

US equities oscillated early before finishing the week firmly higher, with the S&P 500 reaching 7,230 by 1 May, as strong Big Tech earnings – led by Alphabet’s 10% surge – offset macro headwinds from surging oil prices and Meta’s capex-driven 8.6% decline. The VIX moved between 16.99 and 18.81, signalling controlled rather than stressed conditions, while options flow shifted from early-week defensive positioning toward selective accumulation across energy, metals, and individual earnings names.

By week’s end, sentiment stabilised as earnings delivered and oil briefly eased, but underlying uncertainty remains tied to energy markets and policy direction.

Equities

Earnings resilience offsets macro noise, but leadership remains narrow.

US – earnings resilience offsets macro noise: US equities oscillated early in the week before finishing strong, with the S&P 500 moving from 7,138 (28 April) to 7,209 (30 April) and 7,230 (1 May). Big Tech dominated: Alphabet surged 10.0% (30 April) on cloud strength, while Meta dropped 8.6% (30 April) on capex concerns. Nvidia’s earlier record high (27 April) highlighted continued AI momentum, though sentiment briefly softened mid-week.
Europe & Asia – energy pressure vs selective strength: European equities struggled mid-week as oil surged and rate-hike expectations resurfaced, before rebounding into month-end. Local markets showed dispersion, with healthcare and industrials mixed, while Asia remained led by Korea’s AI-driven rally and more uneven performance in China and Japan.

Market pulse: Earnings remain supportive, but leadership is narrow and sensitive to macro inputs.

Looking ahead – equities

Focus shifts from Big Tech to consumer-facing earnings and macro validation. US earnings from Disney, Airbnb, and McDonald’s will test demand resilience, while the US jobs report will determine whether strong growth can sustain current equity levels.

Volatility

Event risk priced, but not feared.

VIX range – controlled conditions: Volatility remained contained despite heavy catalysts. The VIX moved between 18.02 (27 April), 17.83 (28 April), and peaked at 18.81 (29 April) before easing to 16.99 (1 May). Short-term measures spiked around key events but quickly normalised, signalling controlled rather than stressed conditions.
Implied moves and skew: Options pricing implied weekly moves around ±1.0–1.35%, while skew shifted between neutral and defensive, ending the week with a downside bias.

Market pulse: Volatility is stable, but hedging demand remains persistent.

Looking ahead – volatility

The April US jobs report and ongoing oil developments are the next volatility catalysts. Any upside surprise in inflation or labour strength could push implied volatility higher again, particularly in short-dated options.

Options sentiment

Selective upside returns, but hedging remains embedded.

The options market shifted from early-week protection toward more selective accumulation, though conviction never fully broadened. Initial positioning was defensive, with index hedging and sector-level protection dominating, particularly in financials and metals.

That stance evolved into a more balanced setup, with investors expressing views through income strategies, volatility trades, and paired hedges. Energy and metals both transitioned toward cautiously bullish positioning, while equities showed selective upside participation alongside continued protection.

Market pulse: Investors leaned into upside selectively, but maintained protection as conviction remained narrow.

Looking ahead – options sentiment

Options flow will likely remain dispersion-driven, with investors targeting individual earnings names rather than broad index exposure. Watch for increased short-dated activity around consumer earnings and macro releases.

Digital assets

Stable price action, selective institutional flows.

Bitcoin and Ethereum: Crypto markets tracked macro sentiment but showed resilience. Bitcoin traded between USD 75,700 and USD 80,000, while Ethereum held near USD 2,200–2,380. ETF flows were mixed mid-week before turning positive into Friday, reflecting improving sentiment.
Options and altcoins: Options activity remained balanced, combining downside hedging with selective upside positioning, while altcoins followed broader risk trends.

Market pulse: Crypto is constructive, but still dependent on macro direction and liquidity.

Looking ahead – digital assets

ETF flows and macro data will remain key drivers. A stable or softer rates outlook could support further upside, while renewed volatility in equities or yields may quickly feed into crypto positioning.

Fixed income

Yields rise on oil, then stabilise.

US Treasuries: Bond markets reflected the week’s macro tension. US 10-year yields climbed toward 4.43% mid-week on oil-driven inflation concerns, while the 2-year approached 3.95%. By Friday, yields eased slightly as oil corrected and policy expectations stabilised.
European bonds: European yields followed a similar pattern, rising sharply before pulling back into month-end.

Market pulse: Rates are increasingly driven by energy-linked inflation rather than growth expectations.

Looking ahead – fixed income

The US jobs report and Treasury issuance will shape rate expectations. Strong data could reinforce higher-for-longer narratives, while weaker prints may ease pressure on the front end.

Commodities

Oil dominates, reshaping the macro backdrop.

Oil – Strait of Hormuz driver: Oil remained the central driver, with Brent rising toward wartime highs before easing slightly. The Strait of Hormuz disruption tightened supply and drove inflation concerns across markets.
Gold and broader commodities: Gold initially weakened under rising yields but later stabilised as geopolitical risks intensified. Broader commodities posted strong gains in April, led by energy.

Market pulse: Oil continues to dictate inflation expectations and cross-asset behaviour.

Looking ahead – commodities

Any progress on reopening shipping routes will be the key swing factor. A resolution could trigger a sharp pullback in oil and ease inflation fears, while continued disruption would keep upward pressure on prices.

Currencies

Yen volatility and USD strength define the week.

USDJPY – intervention risk: FX markets were dominated by yen volatility and a firm US dollar. USDJPY surged above 160 before dropping sharply below 156 on intervention threats, highlighting extreme positioning.
USD and commodity currencies: The dollar strengthened mid-week on yields and oil before stabilising, while commodity-linked currencies remained supported.

Market pulse: FX is highly reactive to policy divergence and energy dynamics.

Looking ahead – currencies

Yen intervention risk remains elevated, while US data will guide USD direction. Commodity currencies will continue to track oil, making energy markets a key FX driver.

Key takeaways

Equities: Earnings support holds, but leadership remains narrow.
Volatility: Contained, with persistent demand for hedging.
Options: Selective upside with protection still embedded.
Digital assets: Stable, supported by ETF flows and macro tone.
Fixed income: Yields driven by oil and inflation expectations.
Commodities: Oil remains the dominant macro force.
Currencies: Yen volatility and USD direction in focus.

Looking ahead – week of 4 to 8 May 2026

The coming week arrives with oil still elevated, yen intervention risk unresolved, and equities trading near recent highs on the back of narrow earnings-driven leadership. Macro conditions remain fragile beneath the surface, and the data calendar is dense enough to test whether the current equity resilience is justified.

Consumer-facing earnings take centre stage. Disney, Airbnb, and McDonald’s will collectively test whether demand at the consumer level is holding, or beginning to soften under the weight of elevated energy prices and persistent inflation. Meanwhile, the April US jobs report represents the defining macro input of the week – a strong reading would reinforce higher-for-longer rate expectations and pressure the front end of the Treasury curve, while any softness could ease rate anxiety and support risk assets broadly.

Oil remains the wild card. Any signal of progress in reopening the Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes could trigger a sharp reversal in crude, easing inflation fears across fixed income and FX simultaneously. Conversely, continued disruption keeps cross-asset volatility elevated and hedging demand intact.

Calendar highlights (times in GMT)

Mon 4 May – Strait of Hormuz supply developments; options flow into consumer earnings week begins
Tue 5 May – Airbnb Q1 2026 earnings (after close)
Wed 6 May – Walt Disney Q2 2026 earnings (after close); US Treasury auction
Thu 7 May – McDonald’s Q1 2026 earnings; US weekly jobless claims
Fri 8 May – US non-farm payrolls (April); University of Michigan consumer sentiment (preliminary)

Concluding remarks

Markets ended the week resilient, supported by earnings and selective risk-taking, but underlying conditions remain fragile. Oil-driven inflation, central bank uncertainty, and geopolitical risk continue to shape cross-asset behaviour.

The coming week’s labour and consumer data will be critical in determining whether markets can extend gains or face renewed macro pressure.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.

The video featured on this page was generated using artificial intelligence. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and reflects an automated interpretation of the accompanying article content.

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More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke Macro ETF

Big Tech earnings: Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon put AI spending on trial

Wed, 29 Apr 2026 20:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

AI spending is no longer judged by ambition alone. Investors now want visible payback.
Alphabet had the clearest initial market reward, while Meta faced the toughest reaction.
Cloud and advertising are working, but cash flow pressure is becoming harder to ignore.

Artificial intelligence (AI) has been the market’s favourite growth story. It has also become one of its most expensive hobbies. On 29 April 2026, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon gave investors a fresh look at the same big question: is AI spending turning into revenue, margins and cash flow?

The answer is not a simple yes or no. It is more like: yes, but the receipt is getting longer.

The early market reaction showed that investors are becoming more selective. Alphabet was the only clear initial winner, helped by strong Google Cloud growth, resilient Search and better profitability. Meta had the weakest reaction, despite strong advertising growth, because investors focused on the company’s higher capital expenditure plan. In this AI cycle, good revenue is helpful. Good revenue with controlled spending is better.

The chart below puts the AI spending debate in one simple frame: capital expenditure is rising fast, but most Big Tech firms still generate strong free cash flow. Amazon is the clear exception in 2026, as its investment cycle is expected to push free cash flow negative. That is why investors are asking not only “can they spend?” but “which companies can turn that spending into revenue, margins and cash flow fastest?”

Source: Saxo Bank analysis. The 2026 figures are based on Bloomberg forecasts. Chart generated using ASKB by BloombergAI.

Cloud gives the first answer

Microsoft gave investors one of the cleaner AI payback signals. Revenue came in at 82.89 billion USD, ahead of expectations, while Azure and other cloud services grew 39% in constant currency. Its AI business also passed a 37 billion USD annual revenue run rate, up 123% year-on-year. That is the kind of line investors wanted to see: AI is not only a product demo, it is becoming a business line.

Still, the trade-off is visible. Microsoft said cloud gross margin was pressured by AI infrastructure and AI product usage. In plain English, customers are using the tools, but the tools are not free to run. Chips, servers and power do not accept stock options as payment.

Amazon told a similar story, but with a sharper cash flow warning. Amazon Web Services (AWS), its cloud business, grew 28% in constant currency, its fastest growth in 15 quarters. The company also said its chips business topped a 20 billion USD revenue run rate. That is encouraging for the AI demand story.

But Amazon’s trailing 12-month free cash flow fell to 1.2 billion USD from 25.9 billion USD a year earlier, mainly because property and equipment spending rose sharply, reflecting AI investment. This is the core tension: AWS is accelerating, but the infrastructure bill is absorbing much of the benefit for now.

Advertising still pays the rent

Alphabet and Meta showed that AI is already helping the advertising machine. Alphabet reported revenue of 109.90 billion USD, up 22% year-on-year. Google Search and Other revenue rose 19%, while Google Cloud revenue jumped 63% to 20.03 billion USD. Even better, Google Cloud operating income rose to 6.60 billion USD from 2.18 billion USD a year earlier.

That explains the positive initial stock reaction. Alphabet did not only spend more. It showed where the payoff is appearing: Search remains strong, Cloud is scaling, and AI usage is supporting demand rather than clearly damaging the core business.

Meta also delivered strong numbers. Revenue rose 33% to 56.31 billion USD, advertising revenue rose 33%, and operating margin stayed at 41%. For most companies, that would be a victory lap with a modest sandwich.

But Meta raised its 2026 capital expenditure outlook to 125 to 145 billion USD, from 115 to 135 billion USD. That changed the market conversation. Investors are not saying Meta’s AI strategy is failing. They are saying the spending bar has moved higher again, so the proof also needs to move higher.

The new test: useful growth

For long-term investors, this earnings round is useful because it separates AI excitement from AI economics. The strongest signals are not vague statements about transformation. They are concrete signs: faster cloud growth, better ad performance, stronger operating income and healthy free cash flow.

The infographic below turns the earnings season into a simple checklist. Each company has a different AI test, but the investor question is the same: where should the payoff appear, and which numbers will show whether it is real?

Source: Saxo Bank analysis and in-house framework. For illustrative purposes only.

Risks to watch

The first risk is overbuilding. If data centre capacity grows faster than customer demand, margins could suffer. Watch whether cloud growth keeps pace with capital expenditure.

The second risk is pricing. If AI tools become widely available and similar, customers may resist paying much more for them. Adoption is good. Paid adoption is better.

The third risk is investor patience. These companies can afford large spending plans, but even Big Tech does not get unlimited benefit of the doubt. The market is now asking for receipts, not just roadmaps.

Investor playbook

Watch cloud growth alongside capital expenditure, not in isolation.
Follow free cash flow, especially at Amazon and Meta.
Look for AI comments tied to paid usage, pricing or margins.
Treat one quarter as evidence, not a final verdict.

From promise to payback

This earnings round does not settle the AI debate. It sharpens it. Microsoft and Alphabet showed the clearest early evidence that AI spending is turning into measurable business momentum. Amazon showed strong demand, but also how quickly investment can swallow cash flow. Meta showed that even excellent advertising growth may not satisfy investors when the spending plan gets bigger.

For long-term investors, the lesson is simple: AI still matters, but the market is becoming less impressed by the size of the kitchen and more interested in the meal. Big Tech is cooking. Now investors want to know who can serve profitably.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles Theme - Artificial intelligence Quarterly earnings

Platform feature of the week - Portfolio news

Tue, 28 Apr 2026 06:19:00 Z

Senior Relationship Manager, Reece, tells us how Saxo's portfolio news helps him understand what's moving his portfolio whilst on the go - making it his favourite feature on Saxo’s platforms.

Saxo

Topics: Thought Starters

Saxo Market Compass - 27 April 2026

Mon, 27 Apr 2026 19:00:00 Z

Saxo Weekly Market Compass – 27 April 2026

Recap of last week (20 to 24 April 2026)

Oil shocks meet resilient risk appetite.

Markets balanced rising geopolitical tension and higher oil prices against steady earnings and AI-driven momentum. US equities extended gains, while Europe lagged under energy pressure. Volatility stayed contained but elevated, signalling caution rather than stress, while bonds and commodities reflected a renewed inflation impulse.

Market pulse: Resilience persists, but the macro backdrop is becoming less forgiving.

Equities

Narrow leadership continues; regional performance diverges along energy exposure lines.

US equities: Narrow leadership continues to carry the market. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 pushed higher through the week (April 23–24), supported by strong earnings and semiconductor momentum. Intel’s +23.6% surge (April 24) and gains in AMD and Arm reinforced AI-led strength, while weaker prints such as ServiceNow (–17.8%) exposed fragility beneath the surface. Oil-driven inflation concerns capped broader participation, keeping the rally concentrated. Market pulse: Strong at the top, but increasingly dependent on a narrow group.
Europe and Asia: Energy divergence defines regional performance. European equities declined, with the STOXX 600 down through the week as rising oil prices pressured margins, particularly in transport and industrials. Energy majors provided partial support, while selective earnings (Nestlé, ASM International) offered pockets of strength. In Asia, Japan and Korea outperformed on chip demand, while oil-importing economies showed strain. Market pulse: Global equities are diverging along energy exposure lines.

Looking ahead – equities

Focus shifts to earnings concentration risk. Results from Microsoft, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Alphabet, and Apple will test whether AI-led leadership can broaden. Any disappointment could expose the market’s narrow base, especially with oil still elevated.

Volatility

Elevated but orderly: hedging persists without panic.

VIX and implied moves: The VIX held between 18 and 19 throughout the week, with spikes tied to Strait of Hormuz developments fading quickly. Options pricing reflected controlled risk, with implied weekly moves tightening from around 1.4% early in the week to below 1% mid-week before re-expanding. Skew remained defensive at times, with downside protection demand reappearing despite strong equity performance.

Market pulse: Markets are hedged, not stressed.

Looking ahead – volatility

With the Federal Reserve decision and heavy earnings calendar, implied moves have widened again toward roughly 1.6% to 1.7%. Volatility is likely to be event-driven rather than trend-driven, with skew direction offering the clearest signal of sentiment shifts.

Options sentiment

Hedged participation dominates: engagement without conviction.

Options flow showed consistent demand for downside protection across indices and cyclical sectors, particularly early in the week. Investors remained active but cautious, maintaining hedges rather than expressing outright bearish views.

Selective upside participation appeared in large-cap technology, energy, and financials, but rarely in isolation. Call buying was typically paired with protective structures, including collars and two-sided volatility trades, especially around earnings and macro catalysts. By week’s end, positioning evolved into more balanced setups, with increased use of paired strategies.

Market pulse: Investors are participating, but always with protection attached.

Looking ahead – options sentiment

Expect continued preference for structured exposure into major earnings and the Fed. If realised volatility exceeds implied levels, positioning may shift toward more directional trades; otherwise, two-sided strategies are likely to dominate. Watch skew and short-dated flows for early signals of conviction returning.

Digital assets

Stable but selective: institutional flows drive the narrative.

Bitcoin and Ethereum: Bitcoin held in the 75,000 to 78,000 range, while Ethereum remained softer near 2,300. Institutional flows remained the key driver, with IBIT seeing steady inflows, while ETHA showed mixed demand. Crypto equities reflected selective risk appetite, and altcoins remained secondary to broader sentiment.

Market pulse: Stability holds, but conviction is uneven and flow-dependent.

Looking ahead – digital assets

Crypto will continue to track macro risk sentiment, particularly equity volatility and rates. Sustained inflows into IBIT versus mixed ETHA flows suggest leadership remains concentrated in Bitcoin unless broader risk appetite strengthens.

Fixed income

Yields rise as inflation concerns return via energy.

US Treasuries and European yields: US Treasury yields moved higher, with the 10-year near 4.30 to 4.35% during the week, driven by oil-linked inflation expectations. The 2-year fluctuated between roughly 3.72% and 3.84%, reflecting uncertainty around policy direction. European yields followed, pressured by similar inflation dynamics.

Market pulse: Bonds are repricing inflation risk, not growth optimism.

Looking ahead – fixed income

The Federal Reserve decision and forward guidance will be key. Any shift in tone toward persistent inflation could push yields higher, while a more cautious stance may stabilise the front end. Oil remains the critical input variable.

Commodities

Energy leads: supply disruption drives the complex.

Oil and energy: Oil moved above 100 mid-week as supply disruptions intensified, lifting broader commodity indices. Fuel products led gains, while natural gas diverged lower on oversupply. Agricultural markets began pricing fertiliser shortages and weather risks, while metals remained mixed.

Market pulse: Commodities are being driven by supply shocks, not demand strength.

Looking ahead – commodities

Oil remains the dominant driver. Any progress in negotiations could ease prices quickly, while continued disruption may extend inflationary pressure across the complex. Watch agricultural markets for second-round effects from fertiliser constraints and weather patterns.

Currencies

Dollar mixed as traditional correlations weaken.

US dollar and majors: The US dollar showed mixed performance, firming early in the week before softening. EURUSD traded around 1.17, while USDJPY hovered near 159 to 160, raising intervention risks. Commodity-linked currencies strengthened alongside oil, reflecting selective macro alignment.

Market pulse: FX markets are driven more by rates than risk sentiment.

Looking ahead – currencies

Central bank divergence will be the key driver, with Fed guidance and global policy signals shaping flows. USD direction will depend more on rate expectations than oil unless volatility spikes.

Key takeaways

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 extended gains through the week of April 20–24, led by Intel at +23.6% and broader AI semiconductor momentum; European equities declined with the STOXX 600 under oil-related margin pressure.
The VIX held between 18 and 19 throughout the week, with intraday spikes tied to geopolitical developments fading quickly – elevated but orderly.
Options flow showed a consistent preference for hedged participation: downside protection across indices and cyclicals, with selective upside in technology, energy, and financials paired with collars and two-sided structures.
Bitcoin held in the 75,000–78,000 range, supported by steady IBIT inflows; Ethereum remained softer near 2,300 with mixed ETF demand.
US 10-year Treasury yields moved to 4.30–4.35% and the 2-year fluctuated between 3.72% and 3.84%, driven by oil-linked inflation expectations rather than growth signals.
Oil moved above 100 mid-week on Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions, lifting broader commodity indices; natural gas diverged lower on oversupply.
EURUSD traded around 1.17; USDJPY hovered near 159–160, raising intervention concerns as FX markets tracked rate differentials more than risk sentiment.
Cross-asset positioning reflected caution beneath resilient surfaces: equities higher but narrow; volatility contained but skewed defensively; bonds repricing inflation, not growth.

Looking ahead – week of 27 April to 1 May 2026

The coming week is structurally complex. The Federal Reserve’s rate decision arrives against a backdrop of oil-driven inflation risk that markets have already begun pricing, leaving guidance tone as the dominant variable. At the same time, concentrated earnings from the five largest US technology companies will determine whether the current AI-led equity rally can broaden or sustain its current pace.

The macro calendar is dense. Consumer confidence data and the start of big tech earnings set the tone early in the week, followed by the FOMC decision mid-week alongside earnings from Microsoft and Amazon. Apple reports toward the end of the week, with the US employment report rounding out a period that could reset risk appetite across asset classes.

The Fed decision is the single most binary risk event. Any shift in forward guidance toward sustained higher rates – in response to oil-driven inflation – could meaningfully reprice the front end of the yield curve and disrupt the equity rally’s narrow foundation. A more neutral or data-dependent tone may provide relief for bonds and extend the equity bid, though oil remains an independent variable capable of overriding either scenario.

Calendar highlights (times in GMT)

Mon 27 Apr – China PMI; Asian market open sentiment
Tue 28 Apr – US consumer confidence; Alphabet Q1 earnings after close; Meta Platforms Q1 earnings after close
Wed 29 Apr – FOMC rate decision (20:00 GMT); Fed Chair press conference; Microsoft Q1 earnings after close; Amazon Q1 earnings after close
Thu 30 Apr – Apple Q1 earnings after close; US initial jobless claims
Fri 1 May – US non-farm payrolls (April); US unemployment rate

Concluding remarks

Markets remain resilient, but the balance is becoming more delicate. Strong earnings and AI-driven momentum continue to support equities, yet rising energy costs are feeding into inflation expectations across asset classes. Volatility remains contained, but positioning shows clear caution beneath the surface.

The coming week will be decisive. Central bank guidance and concentrated earnings will determine whether markets can sustain their current trajectory or begin to reflect a more challenging macro environment.

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More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke Macro ETF

Saxo Market Compass - 20 April 2026

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 17:17:00 Z

Saxo Weekly Market Compass – 20 April 2026

Gains without full conviction – markets climbed on easing oil fears and earnings momentum, but the hedging never stopped.

Markets navigated a week dominated by shifting US–Iran dynamics, with oil volatility driving cross-asset moves while equities pushed to record highs. Investors increasingly looked through geopolitical noise, supported by resilient earnings and easing inflation signals, though sentiment remained fragile beneath the surface. By week's end, optimism around diplomacy briefly boosted risk appetite before renewed tensions reintroduced uncertainty. It was a week of gains, but not of full conviction.

Equities

Record highs driven by tech strength and easing oil fears.

United States: Wall Street extended its rally, with the S&P 500 moving from 6,886 early in the week to above 7,100 by Friday. Gains were led by AI-linked names and financials, as markets repeatedly treated geopolitical shocks as temporary. Oil pullbacks acted as a key trigger for renewed risk-taking, while earnings provided confirmation.
Europe & Asia: Europe remained more sensitive to oil and inflation, with selective strength in banks and travel as crude eased, while luxury and industrials lagged on earnings. Asia stayed supported by the AI cycle, led by semiconductor demand, though profit-taking emerged late in the week.

Market pulse: Equities are trending higher, but leadership is narrow and macro-dependent.

Looking ahead – equities

Earnings now take centre stage. Tesla and Intel will test whether AI-driven optimism can justify current valuations, while airline results will offer insight into demand versus cost pressures. If earnings confirm resilience, equities can hold levels; if not, the market loses its main pillar.

Volatility

Volatility compresses despite persistent geopolitical risk.

VIX: The VIX declined through the week into the high-teens, signalling calmer conditions even as Hormuz tensions persisted. Implied moves narrowed, but consistent downside skew showed investors continued to pay for protection. The surface calm masks a market still hedging tail risks.

Market pulse: Volatility is low, but not trusted.

Looking ahead – volatility

Focus shifts to earnings-driven volatility. Index volatility may stay contained, but single-stock volatility is likely to rise. Any renewed escalation in oil or geopolitics would quickly reprice index volatility from these compressed levels.

Options sentiment

Positioning shows participation with protection, not conviction.

Options flow reflected a market staying invested while actively managing risk. Upside exposure was present but largely expressed through defined-risk structures such as call spreads, while downside hedging remained persistent. Large-cap equities and financials showed the most caution, reflecting earnings uncertainty.

Sector dispersion stood out: metals saw constructive upside interest, energy flows were selective, and broader equity positioning avoided outright directional bets.

Market pulse: Investors kept risk on, but consistently paid to hedge it.

Looking ahead – options sentiment

This positioning creates asymmetry. If earnings surprise positively, positioning may need to chase upside. If not, existing hedge demand suggests limited downside panic but continued grind rather than breakout.

Digital assets

Crypto stable but conviction remains uneven.

Bitcoin & Ethereum: Bitcoin held broadly stable in the mid-$70k range, while Ethereum lagged slightly, highlighting uneven demand. Institutional flows remained supportive, with IBIT leading and ETHA seeing smaller but steady inflows. Crypto-linked equities outperformed at times, reflecting leveraged exposure to sentiment.

Market pulse: Crypto is stable, but still macro-driven rather than independent.

Looking ahead – digital assets

Crypto direction remains tied to broader risk sentiment. If equities extend gains and volatility stays low, flows should remain supportive. A macro shock – especially via oil or rates – would likely pull crypto back in line with risk assets.

Fixed income

Yields ease, then stabilise as macro signals balance out.

US yields: US yields declined through mid-week on softer inflation and lower oil, before stabilising as markets reassessed growth resilience. Central banks maintained a cautious stance, signalling no urgency to tighten despite energy-related inflation risks.

Market pulse: Bond markets reflect balance, not stress.

Looking ahead – fixed income

Retail sales data becomes key for validating consumer strength. Strong data could push yields higher again, while weaker numbers would reinforce the current steady-rate narrative.

Commodities

Oil volatility dominates, metals follow macro cues.

Oil: Oil moved sharply through the week, falling from elevated levels before rebounding as geopolitical headlines shifted. This volatility shaped broader market sentiment and inflation expectations.
Metals: Gold traded in a wide range, while copper gained on supply constraints and improving growth expectations.

Market pulse: Oil remains the macro anchor for all assets.

Looking ahead – commodities

Geopolitics remains the primary driver. Any clarity on Hormuz or US–Iran talks will directly impact inflation expectations and risk sentiment. Commodities are likely to stay reactive rather than trend-driven.

Currencies

Dollar weakens, then stabilises as risk sentiment shifts.

US dollar: The US dollar declined through most of the week before stabilising as oil rebounded and uncertainty returned.
Japanese yen: The yen remained weak despite lower yields, reflecting carry dynamics and policy uncertainty.

Market pulse: FX remains driven by rate expectations and risk sentiment.

Looking ahead – currencies

Currency direction hinges on rate expectations. Strong US data could support the dollar, while continued risk-on sentiment would favour cyclical currencies.

Key takeaways

The S&P 500 advanced from 6,886 to above 7,100 over the week, led by AI-linked names and financials as markets treated geopolitical shocks as temporary.
European indices showed selective gains, with banks and travel outperforming as crude eased, while luxury and industrials lagged; Asia was supported by semiconductor demand but saw profit-taking late in the week.
The VIX declined into the high-teens, compressing despite persistent Hormuz tensions, though elevated downside skew signalled ongoing demand for tail protection.
Options flow favoured defined-risk structures – call spreads over outright calls – with persistent downside hedging across large-cap equities and financials reflecting earnings uncertainty.
Bitcoin held broadly stable in the mid-$70k range while Ethereum lagged; institutional flows via IBIT remained supportive, with crypto direction remaining macro-dependent.
US Treasury yields declined mid-week on softer inflation and lower oil before stabilising as markets reassessed growth resilience; central banks signalled no urgency to tighten.
Oil moved sharply lower then rebounded as geopolitical headlines shifted, remaining the primary cross-asset anchor shaping sentiment and inflation expectations through the week.
Gold traded in a wide range; copper gained on supply constraints and improving growth expectations; the US dollar declined through most of the week before stabilising on oil's rebound.

Looking ahead – week of 20 April to 24 April 2026

Earnings season moves into its most consequential stretch, making the coming week structurally more binary than the one just passed. With geopolitical risk still unresolved and volatility compressed, a single earnings miss from a high-profile AI name could reprice both single-stock and index volatility simultaneously.

The key focus areas are equity earnings and macro data validation. Tesla and Intel are the headline tests for whether AI-driven equity valuations can hold at current levels. Airline results will offer a read on consumer demand versus cost pressures. US retail sales data is the pivotal macro release, capable of either reinforcing the soft-landing narrative or raising fresh concerns about consumer resilience.

The single biggest risk event is the combination of tech earnings and retail sales landing in the same week. A positive earnings surprise without macro confirmation could create a narrow, fragile rally. A miss in either would likely trigger the repricing that compressed volatility has so far avoided.

Calendar highlights (times in GMT)

Mon 20 Apr – Markets reopen; geopolitical monitoring continues (Hormuz / US–Iran)
Tue 21 Apr – Tesla earnings (after US close); early airline sector results
Wed 22 Apr – Ongoing large-cap earnings; US macro data releases
Thu 23 Apr – Intel earnings; US retail sales data
Fri 24 Apr – End-of-week positioning; options expiry considerations

Concluding remarks

Markets delivered another week of gains, supported by easing oil fears and strong earnings momentum, but conviction remains conditional. Volatility is low, positioning is hedged, and leadership is narrow. With earnings accelerating and macro data in focus, the coming week will determine whether this rally broadens or stalls under its own expectations. Staying selective and flexible remains key.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

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More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke Macro ETF

Platform feature of the week - Saxo's screener tool

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 07:12:00 Z

Relationship Manager, Lucy tells us how Saxo's screener tool helps her to go from idea to a tradable contract in seconds - making it her favourite feature on Saxo’s platforms.

Saxo

Topics: Thought Starters Futures

Oil, batteries and a cheaper Tesla: the next phase of the EV race

Fri, 17 Apr 2026 09:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Tesla’s reported cheaper-car pivot looks like a return to EV basics, not a side story.
Higher oil prices help the EV case, but they do not fix weak margins.
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. (CATL) shows that battery leaders may capture more value than many carmakers.

Tesla spends a lot of time being discussed as a robotaxi, software and artificial intelligence story. That is fair, up to a point. But the latest development says something simpler and, for investors, probably more useful. Tesla is reportedly working on a smaller, cheaper electric vehicle, after years of pushing the market to focus on autonomy and futuristic optionality. That matters because it suggests the old EV battle is back in charge: price, scale, battery cost and who can still make money when the shiny story meets a tired consumer.

That is the real hook here. Tesla is not just updating a product plan. It is admitting, indirectly, that the market has changed. In the first quarter of 2026, Tesla produced more than 408,000 vehicles but delivered just over 358,000, leaving a gap of more than 50,000 units. That is not a disaster, but it is a reminder that demand is no longer a one-way escalator. Tesla reports first-quarter earnings on 22 April 2026, so the next real test is whether management explains this as a temporary wobble or as part of a harder, more price-sensitive market.

Back to the driveway

Tesla’s reported cheaper model matters because it looks like a reality check. A lower-priced compact sport utility vehicle could help volumes, keep factories busier and give Tesla a better answer to Chinese rivals and to a more cautious buyer in Europe and the United States. It also comes with a catch the size of a showroom. Cheaper cars usually mean thinner margins, unless battery costs fall fast enough to compensate. That is why this is more than a Tesla story. It says the EV market is entering a phase where affordability may matter more than aspiration. Flashy launch events are nice. Monthly payments still tend to win arguments.

The broader electric vehicle backdrop is mixed rather than broken. Reuters reported that global EV registrations rose 3% in March 2026, with Europe up 37% to nearly 540,000 units, helped by higher petrol prices. North America, by contrast, fell 30% after the end of tax credits. That split is important. It shows that EV demand still responds to economics, but those economics now depend more on fuel prices, incentives and pricing discipline than on novelty alone. In other words, the market is growing up. Like all adults, it has started reading the energy bill.

Oil has entered the chat

This is where the current oil backdrop matters. Brent crude was around 94.93 USD a barrel on 15 April 2026, while West Texas Intermediate crude was around 91.29 USD, even after some cooling from earlier spikes. Physical oil grades briefly surged far above futures prices during the recent disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. For drivers, and therefore for carmakers, that means one thing: uncertainty at the pump is back. And when fuel becomes a headache, EVs and hybrids start looking less like ideology and more like maths.

That does not mean Tesla automatically wins. Higher oil prices can support EV demand, but they do not solve competition, financing costs or product fatigue. They simply improve the category’s pitch. For long-term investors, that is a useful distinction. Oil can lift interest in EVs, but only the right product mix, the right battery cost and the right manufacturing execution turn that interest into profits. This is one reason Tesla’s cheaper-car move matters now. It is a response to an EV market that may be helped by oil, but no longer rescued by excitement alone.

Why battery makers matter more now

If Tesla’s reported move is the reality check, CATL, or Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., is the second act. The Chinese battery giant beat first-quarter expectations this week, with profit up 48.5% year on year and revenue up 52.5%. Its share of the global electric vehicle battery market also climbed to 42.1% in early 2026, a reminder that more of the industry’s power is shifting toward the companies that control the battery bill. CATL’s own 2025 annual report said it held 39.2% of the global power battery market and 30.4% of global energy storage battery shipments. In February, it added another sign of where the market is heading, saying it would supply sodium-ion batteries for the world’s first mass-produced sodium-ion passenger car with Changan, due by mid-2026.

Why does that matter for Tesla and for investors looking at the wider EV chain? Because batteries are no longer a background component. They shape cost, charging speed, cold-weather performance, supply security and, increasingly, the balance of power in the industry. CATL is also reportedly considering another Hong Kong fundraising, which underlines a broader point: this industry still needs vast amounts of capital, and the companies providing the chemistry and scale may end up with more bargaining power than the brands selling the badge. Carmakers still sell the dream. Battery leaders increasingly control the economics.

The road can still get slippery

There are at least three risks to watch. First, Tesla’s cheaper-car pivot could help deliveries but pressure profitability if price cuts outrun cost savings. Second, oil could fall back quickly if geopolitics ease, which would soften one of the category’s current demand tailwinds. Third, battery leadership could make the EV market more unequal, with suppliers and low-cost manufacturers taking more value while premium carmakers fight harder for it. Early warning signs are straightforward: Tesla’s margin commentary on 22 April, inventory trends, battery pricing language from CATL, and whether Europe’s recent demand strength lasts once energy panic fades.

Investor playbook

Watch whether cheaper EVs expand demand, or simply move the same demand down-market.
Follow battery leaders as closely as car brands. The chemistry race now shapes the profit race.
Treat oil as a demand variable, not a magic wand. It can help adoption, but not fix execution.

Where the real EV battle sits

Tesla’s latest move brings the story back to the driveway. For all the talk of robotaxis, chips and humanoid robots, the near-term question is still whether Tesla can build a more affordable car that people want, at a margin investors can live with. That is why the CATL angle matters so much.

In this phase of the EV race, the winners may not be the companies with the loudest future story, but the ones with the best battery access, the lowest cost curve and the clearest answer to a simple customer question: why should I buy this now? In the electric age, the dream still matters. The battery bill may matter more.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Highlighted articles Tesla Motors Theme - Electric vehicles

Saxo Market Compass - 13 April 2026

Tue, 14 Apr 2026 04:16:00 Z

Saxo Weekly Market Compass – 13 April 2026

Geopolitics drove a full market cycle this week – from stress to relief and back to uncertainty.

Markets moved sharply through the week as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz first lifted oil and volatility, then a temporary ceasefire triggered a broad rally, before renewed escalation brought caution back. Inflation re-accelerated, central bank expectations shifted, and earnings season began to take focus. The key takeaway is simple: macro and geopolitics are again dominating price action across asset classes.

Equities

Relief rally met macro reality across regions.

United States: The S&P 500 gained 2.5% on 8 April as ceasefire hopes drove a sharp rotation into cyclicals, before stabilising into Friday as inflation and sentiment data cooled enthusiasm. Large-cap tech, including Amazon and Meta Platforms, remained supported by AI demand narratives.
Europe: Indices such as the DAX (+5.1%) and CAC 40 (+5.0%) rallied on falling energy prices, with industrial and consumer names leading the recovery.
Asia: Strong semiconductor-led gains from Samsung Electronics and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company emerged early in the week before profit-taking emerged as macro uncertainty returned.

Market pulse: Equities remain reactive to energy and geopolitical shifts, with conviction still limited despite the mid-week surge.

Looking ahead – equities

Earnings take centre stage, with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America setting the tone for financials. Tech leadership will be tested by ASML and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. Expect stock-level dispersion to rise as fundamentals begin to matter more alongside macro risk.

Volatility

Sharp compression followed by renewed tension.

VIX trajectory: Volatility started elevated, with the VIX at 24.17 early in the week, before dropping to around 21 mid-week and further to 19.49 by Friday as ceasefire hopes eased market stress.
Renewed pressure: Volatility began to rise again into the new week, with futures pointing higher near 22 as tensions resurfaced. Expected moves compressed significantly during the mid-week lull, reflecting a temporary stabilisation in sentiment.

Market pulse: Volatility eased, but remains highly headline-sensitive and vulnerable to fast reversals.

Looking ahead – volatility

Volatility is likely to stay reactive, with geopolitical headlines and earnings both acting as catalysts. A sustained move higher in oil or negative earnings surprises could quickly reprice short-term volatility, while stable conditions may keep VIX contained near current levels.

Options sentiment

Disciplined participation with a persistent hedging bias.

Options flow reflected controlled engagement rather than strong conviction. Index positioning showed steady demand for downside protection, while large-cap tech flows shifted toward spreads and overwrites instead of outright calls. Financials reinforced this pattern, with event-driven, defined-risk positioning dominating ahead of earnings.

In contrast, energy and metals saw more constructive flows, though consistently paired with hedging, highlighting conditional optimism rather than outright bullishness.

Market pulse: Investors stayed active, but prioritised risk-controlled exposure over directional bets.

Looking ahead – options sentiment

Earnings season will be the key driver of positioning. Expect continued use of spreads and structured trades, particularly in financials and tech, with implied volatility likely to rise around key events and skew remaining sensitive to macro risk.

Digital assets

Resilient, but still macro-driven.

Bitcoin: Traded between roughly $68k and $72k, holding steady despite sharp macro swings across other risk assets.
Ethereum and altcoins: Ethereum remained near $2.1k–$2.2k, while XRP and Solana showed selective strength. ETF flows remained supportive, with continued inflows into iShares Bitcoin Trust, while iShares Ethereum Trust flows were more cautious.

Crypto continues to behave as a high-beta extension of global risk sentiment rather than a standalone driver.

Market pulse: Crypto remains stable, but direction is macro-dependent.

Looking ahead – digital assets

Crypto will likely continue tracking broader risk sentiment. ETF flows remain the key signal to watch – sustained inflows could support further upside, while macro shocks or equity weakness could quickly pressure prices.

Fixed income

Yields whipsawed by inflation and energy dynamics.

US Treasuries: Yields rose early in the week, dropped sharply mid-week on easing energy fears, and then stabilised higher into Friday. The 10-year yield moved between roughly 4.24% and 4.35%, reflecting shifting expectations around inflation and monetary policy.
Policy outlook: Stronger CPI data reinforced a more cautious outlook for rate cuts, with markets reducing the number of anticipated cuts priced in for 2026.

Market pulse: Bond markets remain anchored to inflation expectations, with energy-driven CPI the dominant variable.

Looking ahead – fixed income

Focus shifts to central bank communication and inflation persistence. Any sustained rise in energy prices could push yields higher, while weaker data or dovish signals could stabilise the curve. Watch for commentary from Fed officials around the earnings period.

Commodities

Oil remained the dominant macro driver across asset classes.

Crude oil: Drove cross-asset moves throughout the week, rising above $110 early on, dropping below $100 on ceasefire hopes, and rebounding again as tensions escalated. The Strait of Hormuz remained the key risk channel, with supply disruption fears driving volatility in both directions.
Metals: Followed the broader risk sentiment, posting mid-week gains before stabilising. No independent catalyst emerged; metals moved in line with the macro mood.

Market pulse: Commodities, especially oil, remain central to macro risk transmission across all asset classes.

Looking ahead – commodities

Geopolitics will continue to dominate the oil price. Any disruption in shipping or supply through the Strait of Hormuz could push prices higher again, while signs of de-escalation may cap gains. Metals will likely track broader risk sentiment and global growth expectations.

Currencies

Dollar swings tracked geopolitics and rate repricing.

US dollar: Strengthened early in the week, weakened mid-week on risk-on sentiment from ceasefire hopes, and rebounded again into the weekend as tensions returned and inflation data supported yields.
Key pairs: EURUSD traded between roughly 1.15 and 1.17, while USDJPY remained elevated near 159–160. Commodity-linked currencies moved in line with oil prices, reflecting the energy-FX transmission channel.

Market pulse: FX markets remain driven by energy-linked inflation expectations and rate differentials.

Looking ahead – currencies

Currency moves will continue to reflect rate expectations and geopolitical developments. Watch for further volatility in USD pairs, particularly if inflation or energy dynamics shift again. USDJPY remains elevated and sensitive to any change in Fed guidance.

Key takeaways

Geopolitics drove rapid cross-asset swings, with ceasefire hopes mid-week triggering a sharp risk-on move that partially reversed as tensions resurfaced.
The S&P 500 gained 2.5% mid-week; European indices including the DAX (+5.1%) and CAC 40 (+5.0%) surged on falling energy costs.
The VIX moved from 24.17 to 19.49 over the week before futures pointed back toward 22, reflecting sustained headline sensitivity.
Options flows shifted to spreads and overwrites in tech and financials, reflecting disciplined, hedged positioning ahead of earnings.
Crude oil swung from above $110 to below $100 and back, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining the key risk channel.
US 10-year Treasury yields oscillated between 4.24% and 4.35%, driven by energy-linked inflation re-acceleration and shifting rate cut expectations.
Bitcoin held between $68k and $72k, with ETF inflows remaining supportive despite macro volatility elsewhere.
Earnings season begins: Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, ASML, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company are the key names to watch.

Looking ahead – week of 13 April to 17 April 2026

The dominant dynamic heading into the new week is the overlap of earnings season and persistent geopolitical risk. This is a structurally complex setup: corporate results can deliver fundamental anchors, but a single headline from the Strait of Hormuz can override earnings signals within hours. That combination makes for an unusually high-dispersion environment.

Key events this week centre on major financial sector earnings, with JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America reporting in the first half of the week. These results will set the tone for financials broadly and will be closely watched for commentary on credit conditions, consumer health, and trading revenues. Technology and semiconductors follow, with ASML and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company reporting later in the week, testing whether AI-driven demand narratives remain intact. On the macro side, watch US retail sales and any Federal Reserve speakers for fresh guidance on the rate path.

The defining event remains geopolitical: any fresh escalation or de-escalation at the Strait of Hormuz will have immediate cross-asset implications, particularly for oil, USD pairs, and rate expectations. A sustained move in crude above $110 would likely put renewed pressure on equities and fixed income simultaneously, while a credible de-escalation could unlock the next leg of the relief rally seen mid-week.

Calendar highlights (times in GMT)

Mon 13 Apr – Markets reopen; watch weekend geopolitical developments and oil price gaps
Tue 14 Apr – JPMorgan Chase Q1 earnings; US retail sales (Mar)
Wed 15 Apr – Goldman Sachs Q1 earnings; Bank of America Q1 earnings; Federal Reserve Beige Book
Thu 16 Apr – ASML Q1 earnings; US initial jobless claims; Netflix Q1 earnings
Fri 17 Apr – Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Q1 earnings; University of Michigan consumer sentiment

Concluding remarks

Markets ended the week stronger, but the underlying picture remains unstable. The rapid shift from stress to relief and back again highlights how dependent sentiment is on geopolitical developments, with oil functioning as the primary transmission mechanism across equities, fixed income, currencies, and crypto. Inflation pressures tied to energy are complicating the policy outlook, while earnings season now offers a potential anchor for fundamentals – but only if macro conditions allow the signal to come through.

For investors, this is a market that rewards discipline. Staying engaged while actively managing risk remains essential, as both opportunities and shocks can emerge quickly and with limited warning.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

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Topics: Macro Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke Macro ETF

ASML earnings: is the 8% move already priced in?

Fri, 10 Apr 2026 09:06:00 Z

ASML earnings: is the 8% move already priced in?

ASML reports earnings on 15 April, and options markets are already pricing a move of roughly 8% in either direction. In this video I explain how to read that implied move, why direction alone is rarely enough in earnings trades, and how three different option structures – a bull call spread, a bear put spread, and an iron condor – each express a different view while keeping risk defined. I also cover the most common mistakes traders make around earnings events, and the key questions to ask before placing any position. Watch to get the full framework before the numbers drop.

This video covers the key concepts. For a deeper, step-by-step walkthrough of the strategies and how they are constructed, including practical examples, refer to the full article: ASML earnings - how to think about the setup before the numbers

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Guide on long-term options for strategic portfolio management
Assignment explained - 01 - what every options trader and investor should know
Assignment explained - 02 - how to avoid assignment
Assignment explained - 03 - how to use option assignment to your advantage
Assignment explained - 04 - option assignment cheat sheet

More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Options Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke Macro ETF Theme - Artificial intelligence Getting Started with Options Contract Options Equity Options Investing with options Options education What are your options Listed Options Option Strategies Defined risk strategies Bearish strategies Bullish strategies Range‑bound strategies Volatility and event strategies

Saxo Market Compass - 30 March 2026

Mon, 30 Mar 2026 18:00:00 Z

Saxo Weekly Market Compass – 30 March 2026

Iran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz delivered a week of whiplash – and markets finished lower.

The Iran war entered its fourth week as the dominant force across every asset class. Monday’s 48-hour ultimatum triggered a broad selloff; Tuesday’s delayed-strike announcement sparked a one-day relief rally; Wednesday’s US 15-point peace proposal briefly lifted sentiment; and Iran’s formal rejection of those terms on Thursday sent equities sharply lower once more. The net result: S&P 500 down for the week, Brent crude near USD 110, global bond yields at cycle highs, the VIX at 27.44, and gold testing its 200-day moving average. Traditional safe-haven correlations broke down – gold fell, the yen weakened despite rising Japanese yields, and institutional options flow was defensively positioned without exception across all five sessions.

Equities

A week of two halves – brief diplomatic relief swallowed by fresh escalation.

USA: The S&P 500 fell 1.5% Monday, rallied 1.2% to 6,581 Tuesday, then dropped 1.7% to 6,477 Thursday as Iran rejected the US peace plan; the Nasdaq lost 2.4% to 21,408 the same day. Chipmakers bore the brunt – Nvidia −4.2%, AMD −7.5%, Intel −6.5% – while Valero rose 5.8% as energy was the week’s only consistent sector winner. Super Micro tumbled 33% on chip-smuggling charges.
Europe: ASML outperformed on SK Hynix’s USD 8bn equipment order. Vestas gained 6% on fresh US project orders; Pandora rose 9.2% on lower precious-metal costs. Edenred fell 17.2% after an Italian antitrust probe. Boliden collapsed 20% on mine disruption; Telecom Italia gained 4.7% on a Poste Italiane bid. The FTSE 100 lost 1.3% Thursday.
Asia: South Korea’s KOSPI fell 6.5% Monday – Samsung −4.7%, SK Hynix −6.2% – while Japan’s Nikkei dropped 3.5% before partially recovering mid-week.

Market pulse: Equities are geopolitics-led; any sustained recovery requires credible Iran de-escalation, not just a one-day diplomatic headline.

Looking ahead – equities

Nike earnings on Tuesday 31 March are the week’s key corporate event and an early consumer-demand test. Q1 ends Tuesday – expect rebalancing flows. The April 6 Iran deadline is the dominant binary for equity direction. NFP releases Good Friday to closed markets; the full equity reaction defers to Monday 6 April, the same morning the Iran deadline expires.

Volatility

VIX holds above 27 – geopolitics, not earnings, runs this vol market.

The VIX closed the week at 27.44, anchored entirely to geopolitical headlines. Short-term measures (VIX1D) briefly dipped below 20 during Tuesday’s relief before spiking again as Iran rejected the US plan. Options markets priced an S&P 500 expected weekly move of approximately 178 points (2.74%) at Monday’s open, narrowing to around 80 points (1.2%) by Friday’s close as expiry positioning compressed. Near-the-money calls occasionally traded marginally richer than puts – signalling uncertainty about direction rather than outright fear of an imminent crash.

Market pulse: Volatility stays elevated and range-bound until the Iran situation resolves; the April 6 deadline is the next hard event horizon.

Looking ahead – volatility

Iran’s April 6 deadline creates a hard VIX event. Dealers’ short-put inventory from the week’s protection buying structurally reinforces downside pressure. A credible ceasefire signal could collapse implied vol rapidly; escalation pushes VIX toward 35+. The VIX term structure – front-month elevated but well below spot – is pricing a specific event window, not open-ended fear.

Options sentiment

Protection first, conviction a distant second – across every segment.

All five sessions pointed in the same direction: investors leaned defensive. Index and broad-market hedging was consistent throughout, and the largest technology stocks attracted downside protection on every session from Tuesday onward. Selective long-horizon call buying was present in a handful of names, but it never came close to offsetting the protective tone.

The sector picture added nuance. Energy started the week with genuine upside appetite in selected names, but that eroded steadily and closed on a clearly defensive note. Precious metals swung sharply, with a constructive mid-week session sandwiched between bearish ones; the week still ended on the defensive side. Financials split the room: meaningful protection and genuine accumulation both appeared in size, with no clear sector consensus emerging.

Market pulse: Investors did not abandon exposure, but they consistently paid for insurance – in every segment, across every session.

Looking ahead – options sentiment

April 17 is the dominant expiry horizon. The weight of accumulated downside hedging across indices and growth names creates a structural amplifier on any weak session. A credible Iran de-escalation is the clearest path to rapid protection unwinding and vol compression. Until that signal arrives, the defensive positioning bias is likely to persist.

Digital assets

Crypto tracked equities all week – no safe-haven function on offer.

Bitcoin ranged USD 67,800–71,000 before closing near USD 68,600; Ether held between USD 2,035 and 2,166. Both tracked equities without divergence. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a USD 171M net outflow on 26 March (IBIT −$42M); Ether ETFs lost USD 92M total (ETHA −$140M, partly offset by other products). Coinbase, MicroStrategy, and most miners remained under pressure; Marathon Digital announced Bitcoin sales to reduce debt. XRP and Solana drifted lower throughout.

Market pulse: Bitcoin shows relative strength within crypto, but institutional conviction remains absent until macro and geopolitical conditions stabilise.

Looking ahead – digital assets

April 6 is as binary for crypto as for equities – de-escalation could quickly restore risk appetite with Bitcoin as the first beneficiary. Monitor weekly IBIT and ETHA flows: a return to sustained positive IBIT inflows is the clearest signal of institutional re-engagement. Ethereum’s underperformance versus Bitcoin will persist until ETH ETF flows reverse.

Fixed income

Bond markets are pricing a rate hike – not a cut – for the first time this cycle.

US: The 2-year Treasury yield surged 10bps Thursday to 3.98% – its highest this cycle – with futures now pricing a hike rather than a cut as oil-driven inflation dominates. The 10-year closed at 4.42%; the 2–10 spread flattened to below 45bps from 73bps in early February.
Europe: Germany’s 2-year Schatz rose 11bps in a single session to 2.715% (highest since mid-2024); the 10-year Bund hit its highest close since 2011 at 3.07%. The Germany–France 10-year spread widened to 71bps, the year’s widest.
Japan: The 2-year JGB reached 1.386% – highest since 1996 – with markets pricing >65% odds of a BoJ hike at the late-April meeting.

Market pulse: Energy-driven inflation has reasserted itself as the dominant macro force, overriding every other central bank consideration globally.

Looking ahead – fixed income

Eurozone flash CPI Tuesday 31 March (consensus 2.5%) will confirm oil-shock pass-through; an upside surprise pushes Bund yields higher. Germany CPI Monday is the first read. NFP on Good Friday defers the full bond-market reaction to Monday 6 April. The BoJ’s late-April meeting is increasingly priced to deliver a 25bp hike.

Commodities

Brent’s record monthly advance is reshaping every other asset class in its image.

Energy: Brent crude surged toward USD 110 Thursday, logging a near-44% monthly advance – a record. Around 1,000 vessels remain stranded in the Gulf due to war-risk insurance withdrawals. Singapore jet fuel hit USD 222/barrel (+137% since the war began); the gasoil–Brent spread exceeded the 2022 Russia-shock peak. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is up 31% year-on-year.
Gold: Gold tested its 200-day moving average at USD 4,113 as ETF outflows hit 85 tonnes for the month (−2.7% of holdings) – the metal is trading as a liquidity asset, not a safe haven.
Agriculture: Persian Gulf fertiliser disruptions are already curtailing Australian wheat plantings.

Market pulse: The supply shock is structural – until Hormuz reopens meaningfully, energy prices and their inflationary knock-ons will continue to define the macro backdrop.

Looking ahead – commodities

April 6 is the key catalyst: credible de-escalation could trigger a sharp Brent reversal and a gold recovery as the liquidity-selling dynamic reverses. OPEC+ spare capacity to offset Hormuz disruption is limited – watch Saudi Arabia and UAE for any output signals. Fertiliser shortages will increasingly feed into agricultural supply balances from April planting decisions onward.

Currencies

Safe havens in disarray – neither the dollar nor the yen is offering clean shelter.

USDJPY: Reached 159.85 as Japan’s energy dependence on Hormuz supply weighed heavily on the yen; Japan’s Ministry of Finance warned of “bold actions” before the pair retreated below 159.60. Rising JGB yields would normally support the yen, but the energy-import shock offsets that, keeping USDJPY close to intervention levels.
EURUSD: Hit a Thursday low of 1.1520, recovering to 1.1550 by Friday.
AUDUSD: Fell to 0.6872 – its lowest since late January – on weaker risk sentiment and softer Australian February CPI (3.7% YoY vs. 3.8% expected). The Swiss franc also lost safe-haven appeal.

Market pulse: Currency safe-haven hierarchies are being rewritten by the Iran shock; USDJPY near 160 remains the most important technical level in G10 FX.

Looking ahead – currencies

Any fresh USDJPY push toward 160 will re-trigger MoF intervention concern. Eurozone CPI Tuesday directly affects EUR positioning. NFP defers the full dollar reaction to Monday 6 April. AUDUSD has meaningful recovery potential in an Iran de-escalation scenario; further escalation targets early-February lows near 0.6944.

Key takeaways

S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the week lower; Thursday alone saw S&P −1.7% to 6,477 and Nasdaq −2.4% to 21,408 on Iran’s rejection of the US peace plan. Nvidia −4.2%, AMD −7.5%, Intel −6.5%.
VIX closed at 27.44; options flow was defensively positioned all five sessions – institutional put demand in SPY, QQQ, and high-beta single names throughout the week without exception.
Bitcoin closed near USD 68,600, tracking equities; spot ETF outflows confirmed absent institutional conviction (IBIT −$42M, ETHA −$140M on 26 March alone).
US 2-year yield hit 3.98% (cycle high); Germany 2-year Schatz 2.715% (highest since mid-2024); Japan 2-year JGB 1.386% (highest since 1996). Bond markets are pricing a hike, not a cut.
Brent crude logged a near-44% monthly advance – a record. Bloomberg Commodity Index +31% year-on-year. Singapore jet fuel at USD 222/barrel, up 137% since the war began.
Gold tested its 200-DMA at USD 4,113; ETF outflows hit 85 tonnes for the month. The metal is trading as a liquidity instrument, not a safe haven.
USDJPY reached 159.85 – one step from MoF intervention. Japan’s energy dependence on Hormuz is the structural driver of yen weakness despite rising JGB yields.

Looking ahead – week of 30 March to 3 April 2026

The week is shaped by one inescapable fact: Trump’s revised April 6 Iran deadline arrives next Monday with negotiations stalled. Markets will price de-escalation versus escalation probabilities throughout the week, keeping cross-asset correlations unstable.

Germany CPI on Monday 30 March provides the first G7 inflation read of the week; Eurozone flash CPI follows on Tuesday 31 March (consensus 2.5%) – an upside surprise could force ECB hawkishness back onto the table. Tuesday also marks Q1-end, with portfolio-rebalancing flows likely to amplify intraday moves. Nike reports earnings Tuesday as the week’s key corporate event. ISM Manufacturing on Wednesday 1 April (consensus 52.3 versus prior 52.4) will be the first April factory read; any deceleration alongside elevated input costs reinforces stagflation concerns.

The defining data point arrives Good Friday 4 April: US Nonfarm Payrolls (consensus +57,000 after February’s −92,000 shock; unemployment expected at 4.4%). Equity and bond markets are closed for Easter. The full reaction therefore compresses into Monday 6 April – the same morning the Iran deadline formally expires. Two binary events stacked on a single Monday open: keep liquidity available and position accordingly.

Calendar highlights (times in GMT)

Mon 30 Mar – Germany CPI (Mar, prelim)
Tue 31 Mar – Eurozone flash CPI (Mar, consensus 2.5%); Q1-end; Nike earnings (NKE)
Wed 1 Apr – ISM Manufacturing (consensus 52.3)
Fri 4 Apr – US Nonfarm Payrolls (markets closed, Good Friday)
Mon 6 Apr – NFP market reaction + Trump Iran deadline expires

Concluding remarks

The week of 23 to 27 March confirmed that the Iran war has fractured traditional macro correlations: gold is selling off, the yen is weakening despite rising yields, and bond markets are pricing rate hikes in a slowing economy. The Hormuz supply shock is structural – stranded vessels, fertiliser shortages, and record refined-fuel margins are not temporary features. With the April 6 deadline approaching and talks stalled, the outcome range remains unusually wide. Maintaining diversification, keeping hedge costs in check, and preserving liquidity for a potentially historic Monday 6 April open is the most defensible posture heading into the Easter break.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

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Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke Macro ETF

Saxo Market Compass - 23 March 2026

Mon, 23 Mar 2026 17:30:00 Z

Saxo Weekly Market Compass

23 March 2026 (recap week of 16 to 20 March 2026)

Headlines & introduction

Markets spent last week repricing a single dominant theme: energy-driven inflation risk colliding with a less accommodative policy outlook. Early-week relief faded as oil volatility and the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance pushed investors back into defensive positioning.

By Friday, the shift was clear. Equities weakened, bond yields surged, and volatility remained elevated, with macro risks firmly back in control of cross-asset direction.

Market pulse: sentiment rotated from cautious optimism to inflation-driven defensiveness.

Equities

A fragile rebound gave way to a broad risk reset.
US equities opened stronger, with the S&P 500 up 1.0% (16 Mar) as oil eased and AI names supported sentiment. That strength faded quickly, with a 1.4% decline (18 Mar) after the Fed reinforced a limited easing path, followed by continued pressure into Friday as oil and yields climbed.

Europe and Asia were more exposed to the energy shock. The STOXX 600 fell 2.4% (19 Mar), while Japan and Korea posted sharp declines late in the week as higher energy costs raised concerns around growth and margins.

Market pulse: equities are no longer pricing growth— they’re pricing inflation risk.

Looking ahead
Focus shifts to whether macro pressure feeds into earnings expectations. GameStop and retail-linked names will test risk appetite, while housing (KB Home) and payroll-linked earnings (Paychex) offer insight into consumer resilience. If oil stabilises, equities may find footing; if not, downside risk remains skewed toward cyclicals and Europe.
A potential de-escalation in the Middle East adds a new layer to the outlook. The sharp rebound in equities on easing headlines highlights how sensitive markets remain to oil-driven inflation expectations; however, conflicting signals suggest any relief may remain headline-driven rather than durable.

Volatility

Volatility remained elevated, driven by macro rather than panic.
The VIX dropped to 23.51 (16 Mar) before rising to 25.09 (18 Mar) as Fed uncertainty and energy risks intensified. Short-term measures confirmed persistent demand for protection around macro catalysts.

By Friday, volatility eased slightly after expiry-related flows, but the broader regime remains elevated, with options still pricing meaningful index moves and sensitivity to headlines.

Market pulse: volatility is stable, but structurally elevated and macro-driven.

Looking ahead
Key triggers shift from central banks to data. PMI, jobless claims, and consumer sentiment will determine whether realised volatility catches up with implied. If oil stabilises, vol could compress; if macro surprises persist, short-dated vol is likely to reprice higher first.
The sharp cross-asset reversal on de-escalation headlines reinforces that volatility remains event-driven. Short-dated measures are likely to stay sensitive to geopolitical news, with rapid repricing in either direction.

Options sentiment

Protection remained dominant, but markets did not fully de-risk.
Across the week, options flow continued to favour downside protection, particularly in the largest growth names where confirmed-opening hedging structures dominated. That points more to ongoing risk management than outright bearish conviction, as investors maintained exposure while guarding against macro shocks. The shift was most visible mid-week, as oil and rate uncertainty intensified and demand for protection increased.

Outside of tech, positioning was more balanced. Energy and metals retained constructive flows, especially in selected equities and miners, but upside participation was consistently paired with hedging. Financials added a different dynamic, with flow skewed toward income strategies, suggesting expectations of range-bound conditions rather than strong directional moves.

Market pulse: investors stayed invested, but conviction remained selective and consistently hedged.

Looking ahead
Watch whether protection demand persists into a lighter macro week. A decline in hedging flow — especially in large-cap growth — would signal stabilisation, while continued put demand or short-dated hedging would confirm that macro risk is still dominating positioning.
A sustained easing in geopolitical risk could prompt partial unwinding of downside protection, but uncertainty around the durability of any de-escalation suggests investors may continue to favour hedged structures.

Digital assets

Crypto tracked macro, with bitcoin showing relative strength.
Bitcoin held near $74K early in the week before drifting toward the $67–70K range, outperforming Ethereum and altcoins, which showed clearer weakness. ETF flows turned from supportive to mixed-to-negative, reflecting more cautious institutional positioning.

Options activity confirmed this tone, with hedging in crypto-linked equities and ETF products limiting upside conviction.

Market pulse: bitcoin remains resilient, but broader crypto sentiment is fragile.

Looking ahead
Crypto direction will hinge on macro stability, not crypto-specific catalysts. Watch ETF flows closely—renewed inflows would signal re-risking, while continued outflows would confirm a defensive regime. Correlation with equities remains high.

Fixed income

Bond markets repriced sharply toward inflation risk.
Yields fell early in the week before reversing decisively. The US 10-year moved from around 4.23% (16 Mar) to above 4.40% by Friday, while the 2-year approached 3.90%, reflecting a shift toward higher-for-longer expectations.

European yields followed, with Bund yields above 3.00%, as markets reconsidered the ECB path amid energy-driven inflation concerns.

Market pulse: bonds have moved from pricing cuts to defending against inflation.

Looking ahead
Import price data and consumer sentiment will be critical. Any sign that energy costs are feeding into inflation expectations could push yields higher again. Conversely, softer data could stabilise rates, particularly at the long end.
Lower oil prices could ease inflation expectations and provide temporary relief for bond yields, but durability depends on whether energy markets stabilise.

Commodities

Energy strength and metals weakness defined the week.
Oil remained elevated, with supply disruptions reinforcing inflation concerns despite intermittent pullbacks. Refined products continued to signal tightness, confirming that the shock is structural rather than headline-driven.

Metals moved in the opposite direction. Gold broke below key levels and saw a sharp decline, while copper and silver weakened on growth concerns and liquidation pressure.

Market pulse: commodities split—energy signals inflation, metals signal stress.

Looking ahead
The key variable remains Middle East developments and supply flows. Oil direction will dictate cross-asset sentiment. Watch refinery margins and diesel spreads—these remain the clearest indicators of real supply stress.
The recent sharp drop in oil on de-escalation signals shows how quickly supply risk can be repriced, but disrupted flows and tight product markets suggest volatility will remain elevated even if tensions ease.

Currencies

FX markets reflected rates and commodities, not classic safe havens.
The US dollar weakened early in the week before recovering as yields rose. EURUSD traded in wide ranges, while USDJPY remained volatile amid yield shifts and central bank positioning.

Safe-haven behaviour was inconsistent. The Swiss franc failed to attract strong flows, while the Norwegian krone strengthened on energy exposure, highlighting the dominance of rate and commodity dynamics.

Market pulse: FX is driven by yield spreads and energy exposure, not risk aversion alone.

Looking ahead
Watch rate differentials and commodity moves. Energy-linked currencies remain sensitive to oil, while USD direction will depend on yields. Any stabilisation in rates could weaken the dollar again.

Key takeaways

Energy shock reshaped inflation expectations across markets.
Equities weakened globally, with Europe and Asia most exposed.
Volatility elevated, driven by macro rather than panic.
Options flow defensive, but not capitulative.
Bond yields surged, repricing policy expectations.
Commodities diverged sharply between energy and metals.
FX driven by rates and commodities, not classic safe havens.

Conclusion

Last week confirmed that markets are no longer trading on isolated themes. Energy, inflation, and policy are now tightly linked, and that linkage is driving cross-asset behaviour.

The next phase depends less on central banks and more on whether macro data confirm that the energy shock is feeding into the real economy. Until then, markets are likely to remain reactive, selective, and structurally hedged.

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Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke Macro ETF

Saxo Market Compass - 16 March 2026

Mon, 16 Mar 2026 19:00:00 Z

Saxo Weekly Market Compass

16 March 2026 (recap week of 9 to 13 March 2026)

Headlines & introduction

Energy risk reshaped the macro narrative. Markets spent the week reacting to renewed Middle East tensions and a sharp rebound in oil prices, pushing inflation risks back into focus and triggering repricing across assets. Equities moved in waves of relief rallies and renewed risk aversion, while bond yields climbed and volatility stayed elevated.

Digital assets held relatively firm and options flows showed investors maintaining exposure but increasingly adding portfolio hedges. With oil volatility now feeding directly into inflation expectations and policy outlooks, investors ended the week cautious and focused on the next round of macro catalysts.

Equities

What happened

AI strength balanced oil-driven macro fears. US equities swung between optimism and caution. The S&P 500 rose early in the week before retreating as Brent crude moved back toward the $100 area and Treasury yields climbed.

Technology remained the strongest pocket of the market. Oracle rallied on AI-related guidance, while semiconductor names such as Nvidia, Intel and Micron benefited from continued demand tied to AI infrastructure spending.

Outside the US, European and Asian equities proved more sensitive to energy shocks. The STOXX 600 rebounded early in the week before oil-driven inflation fears returned. Semiconductor leaders such as ASML and Infineon rallied early, while energy majors including Shell and BP benefited from higher crude prices.

Market pulse: AI remains a structural support for equities, but oil prices are driving short-term sentiment.

Looking ahead

Equity markets now face a catalyst-heavy week. The Federal Reserve decision and Chair Powell’s press conference will influence rate expectations, while Micron’s earnings will test whether the AI investment cycle remains intact.

Investors will also watch consumer-facing earnings and global trade signals from companies such as FedEx and Dollar Tree. Together with oil prices, these developments could determine whether equities stabilise or remain headline-driven.

Volatility

What happened

Geopolitics kept volatility elevated. Market volatility remained firm as geopolitical risk drove trading behaviour. The VIX hovered near the high‑20s during the week, while short-dated volatility indicators stayed elevated as investors continued buying protection against sudden market moves.

Options pricing suggested sizeable expected index swings as markets reacted to oil price volatility and geopolitical uncertainty. Rather than fading, volatility remained structurally supported by macro risk.

Market pulse: volatility stayed elevated as geopolitics replaced macro data as the main market driver.

Looking ahead

The upcoming Federal Reserve decision could become the next volatility catalyst. Powell’s comments on inflation and energy-driven price pressures will likely influence volatility expectations across equities and rates.

If oil markets stabilise, volatility may gradually decline. Continued geopolitical uncertainty, however, could keep volatility elevated.

Options sentiment

What happened

Options flow prioritised portfolio protection. Options activity showed consistent demand for downside hedging across indices, financials and rate-sensitive ETFs. Institutional investors appeared focused on protecting portfolios against macro shocks rather than positioning aggressively for upside.

Commodity-related options presented a more balanced picture. Energy producers attracted selective upside positioning, while metals miners saw accumulation-style flows reflecting ongoing interest in precious metals.

Market pulse: investors stayed invested but layered systematic hedges across macro-sensitive sectors.

Looking ahead

Options positioning will likely react to upcoming macro catalysts. Central-bank communication and inflation data could influence hedging demand, particularly in rate-sensitive sectors.

If geopolitical risks persist, demand for downside protection across indices and financials may remain elevated.

Digital assets

What happened

Crypto proved resilient amid macro turbulence. Digital assets held up relatively well compared with equities. Bitcoin traded near the $70k range during much of the week before rising toward the mid‑$70k area late in the period.

Institutional demand remained a key driver. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded fresh inflows during the week, while Ethereum-linked products also attracted demand.

Market pulse: ETF demand continues to anchor institutional interest in crypto.

Looking ahead

Crypto markets will likely track broader liquidity conditions and risk sentiment. A more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve or rising bond yields could pressure digital assets in the short term.

However, continued ETF inflows and institutional adoption remain supportive structural factors.

Fixed income

What happened

Bond markets repriced inflation risk. Government bond yields moved higher during the week as rising oil prices revived inflation concerns. US Treasury yields climbed as markets priced fewer near-term rate cuts.

European yields also rose as investors reassessed inflation risks linked to energy prices. Credit spreads widened briefly before stabilising, reflecting more cautious risk appetite.

Market pulse: bond markets are adjusting to a renewed inflation narrative.

Looking ahead

The Federal Reserve meeting will be the key driver for bond markets. Any signal that policymakers are concerned about energy-driven inflation could push yields higher.

Inflation data and economic indicators will also help determine whether markets continue to price fewer rate cuts.

Commodities

What happened

Oil dominated the commodity complex. Energy markets led commodity moves as supply disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent crude toward the $100–$105 range.

Strategic reserve releases were coordinated in response to the disruption, highlighting the scale of supply risks. Precious metals showed mixed performance as safe-haven demand competed with rising yields and a stronger dollar.

Market pulse: oil became the central macro variable for global markets.

Looking ahead

Energy markets will remain the key variable for commodities. Investors will closely monitor geopolitical developments and the impact of reserve releases on global supply conditions.

Gold and silver may continue reacting to interest-rate expectations and dollar strength rather than pure safe-haven demand.

Currencies

What happened

Dollar strength returned on safe-haven demand. Currency markets reflected rising risk aversion. The US dollar strengthened during the week, while the euro weakened as energy risks weighed on European sentiment.

The Japanese yen hovered near intervention-sensitive levels against the dollar, while commodity currencies showed mixed performance.

Market pulse: FX markets reacted primarily to energy risk and safe-haven flows.

Looking ahead

Currency markets will focus on the Federal Reserve decision and evolving interest-rate expectations.

Energy price developments may continue influencing currency performance, particularly for energy-importing economies such as Europe and parts of Asia.

Conclusion

The week demonstrated how quickly geopolitical shocks can reshape financial markets through energy prices. Oil’s rebound revived inflation concerns and triggered repricing across equities, bonds and currencies.

Investors have not abandoned risk assets, but positioning has become more cautious, with increased hedging across macro-sensitive sectors. With central-bank decisions, inflation data and major earnings ahead, markets enter the new week balancing structural growth themes with heightened macro uncertainty.

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More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke Macro ETF

Saxo Market Compass - 9 March 2026

Mon, 09 Mar 2026 18:00:00 Z

Saxo Weekly Market Compass –
the Iran shock rewrites the market narrative

9 March 2026 (recap week of 2 to 6 March 2026)

Headlines & introduction

A geopolitical shock became a macro shock.

The week of 2 to 6 March began as a geopolitical story and ended as a full market repricing. As tensions involving Iran escalated and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz pushed energy prices sharply higher, investors were forced to reassess inflation, growth and the path of central bank policy.

That shift was felt across asset classes. Equities swung between relief rallies and renewed selloffs, bond yields moved higher, volatility stayed elevated and the US dollar regained safe-haven support. By the end of the week, markets were no longer treating the conflict as a regional event, but as a potential global inflation and growth shock.

Timeline of market reactions to the Iran shock: equities weaken early in the week, oil and yields rise mid-week, volatility spikes by Friday, and markets enter the new week focused on the oil surge, US inflation data and key earnings catalysts. Source: Saxo

Equities

Equities traded less on fundamentals and more on the price of disruption.

In the US, markets spent the week reacting to oil, yields and geopolitics rather than following a clean earnings-led script. The S&P 500 was roughly flat on 2 March, fell 0.9% on 3 March, rebounded 0.8% on 4 March, and then lost momentum again as oil prices rose and the labour-market backdrop softened into week-end. Technology names still offered selective support, with AI-linked companies such as Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom and Marvell attracting buying interest on company-specific developments, but that leadership was not enough to stabilise the broader market.

Outside the US, the Iran shock was even more visible. European equities were hit by renewed concerns over imported energy costs, with the STOXX 600 falling 1.6% on 2 March and a further 3.1% on 3 March before a mid-week rebound. The FTSE 100 was relatively more resilient thanks to its energy exposure, while continental markets were weighed down by industrials, transport and cyclicals. In Asia, South Korea saw the most violent swings, Japan remained vulnerable as an energy importer, and Hong Kong held up better as large-cap technology names offset some of the wider pressure.

Market pulse: equities increasingly traded as a function of oil, inflation and geopolitical risk rather than company fundamentals.

Options sentiment

The options market pointed to protection first, conviction second.

Across the week, options activity showed a clear preference for downside protection. Broad market positioning leaned defensive, with persistent hedging in index exposure and a more cautious tone in high-beta growth areas. The message from the largest growth stocks also deteriorated through the week, as investors increasingly favoured defensive structures over straightforward upside participation.

The more nuanced picture appeared in energy and metals. In energy, investors still showed willingness to own upside in selected names, but broad sector exposure remained hedged. In metals, positioning stayed constructive, particularly in miners, but was paired with downside protection in the large precious-metals ETFs. Taken together, the signal was not capitulation. It was a market that remained invested, but wanted much more insurance.

Market pulse: investors did not abandon risk, but they consistently paid to protect against further instability.

Volatility

Volatility rose because oil turned geopolitics into policy risk.

The week’s volatility profile stayed elevated throughout. The VIX closed at 21.44 on 2 March, rose to 23.57 on 3 March, eased to 21.15 on 4 March, and then closed Friday at 29.49 as the weekend escalation drove another round of demand for near-term hedges. Short-dated volatility measures remained firm, and downside skew stayed in place, showing that investors were still more focused on protection than on chasing a rebound.

That matters because the rise in volatility was not simply about equity weakness. It reflected uncertainty over energy supply, inflation and central-bank reaction functions. By Monday 9 March, options markets were implying a weekly move of nearly 2.9% in the S&P 500, while downside options remained richer than upside exposure, consistent with a market still bracing for unstable headlines.

Market pulse: volatility stayed high because the market saw Iran as an ongoing macro event, not a one-day shock.

Digital assets

Crypto held up better than many risk assets, but did not decouple from macro stress.

Bitcoin and Ethereum were relatively stable through the week, with Bitcoin trading broadly between the high $67,000s and low $72,000s, while Ethereum held near the $2,000 to $2,130 range. Early in the week, ETF demand helped cushion the asset class, particularly in bitcoin exposure, but that support became less consistent as macro risk intensified.

By the end of the week, the tone had softened. Bitcoin ETF flows turned negative, while Ethereum exposure remained somewhat better supported. That left digital assets looking more resilient than some high-beta equity segments, but still sensitive to the same drivers affecting broader markets: oil, yields and risk appetite. The listed crypto ecosystem also remained under pressure as investors reduced exposure to more cyclical and momentum-driven pockets of the market.

Market pulse: crypto showed resilience, but ETF support softened rather than removed macro pressure.

Fixed income

Bond markets repriced inflation risk faster than recession risk.

US Treasury yields moved higher through much of the week as markets reassessed the inflation implications of rising oil and gas prices. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed from around 4.05% early in the week to roughly 4.14% by 6 March, while the 2-year yield moved back above 3.55%. That shift reflected a market becoming less confident that lower rates would arrive quickly if the energy shock proved persistent.

The same pattern appeared elsewhere. German Bund yields rose as Europe faced renewed imported-energy risk, UK gilt yields moved higher as inflation concerns returned, and Japan’s yield curve steepened as longer-dated government bonds came under pressure. Credit markets also reflected a more cautious tone, with high-yield spreads widening before partially retracing during the mid-week risk rebound.

Market pulse: fixed income markets treated Iran less as a growth scare and more as an inflation complication.

Commodities

Commodities were the clearest expression of the Iran shock.

Energy dominated the week’s macro narrative. Brent crude rose sharply through the week and then surged at the Monday 9 March open, briefly nearing $120 a barrel as markets confronted the scale of disruption around the Strait of Hormuz and the risk of tighter supply in crude, diesel, jet fuel and LNG. Reuters reported that oil rose roughly 25% on 9 March, its highest level since mid-2022.

Natural gas and refined products reinforced the same message. European gas prices spiked early in the week, while broader commodity markets began to price in the inflationary effects of higher energy costs. Gold’s performance was more complex. It initially softened as the dollar strengthened and deleveraging hit hard assets, but the underlying strategic case for precious metals remained intact as markets weighed the risk of a broader stagflationary backdrop.

Market pulse: commodities were not a side story; they were the mechanism through which the conflict reached global markets.

Currencies

The dollar regained its role as the cleanest liquid refuge.

Foreign-exchange moves were more orderly than those seen in equities or commodities, but the direction was still clear. The US dollar strengthened as investors sought liquidity and safety, with EURUSD falling toward 1.1530 during the week before stabilising near 1.1600. USDJPY also pushed toward the upper end of its recent range as higher energy prices and rising global yields complicated the yen’s safe-haven role.

Emerging-market currencies were more visibly pressured by weaker risk sentiment, while sterling also came under pressure as the oil shock raised questions for energy-importing economies. Reuters reported that sterling fell sharply on 9 March as the oil surge forced investors to reconsider the inflation outlook and the likely policy response.

Market pulse: in this phase of the shock, the dollar remained the market’s preferred shelter.

Key takeaways

Iran became the week’s dominant macro driver rather than just a geopolitical backdrop.
Oil, gas and shipping disruption were the key transmission channels into global markets.
Equities remained unstable, with Europe and energy-importing Asian markets hit hardest.
Options activity showed a clear preference for downside protection across broad markets.
Energy and metals positioning stayed selective and hedged rather than outright bullish.
Bond yields rose as markets repriced inflation risk more aggressively than recession risk.
Digital assets proved relatively resilient, though still sensitive to the same macro pressures.

Looking ahead (9 to 13 March 2026)

The key question now is whether the Iran shock remains an energy event or becomes a broader policy problem.

The coming week is heavy with macro and earnings catalysts, but the biggest issue is whether the oil spike proves temporary or starts to feed more deeply into inflation and rate expectations. That distinction matters because it will determine whether markets can continue to look through the conflict or whether earnings expectations and policy assumptions need to be revised lower.

The first major test is US CPI on Wednesday 11 March. That report arrives just before the next Federal Reserve meeting and will be watched closely for any sign that inflation was already proving sticky even before the latest energy surge. Later in the week, the PCE price index will offer a second important inflation checkpoint. If both releases stay firm, the market may conclude that the inflation problem is becoming broader than oil alone.

Earnings also matter. Oracle is due to report on 10 March and Adobe on 12 March, providing fresh read-through for AI spending, software demand and broader confidence in growth leadership. That matters because if core growth sectors start to wobble at the same time as oil stays elevated, the market backdrop becomes materially more fragile.

Housing, trade and consumer data will add texture, but the main checklist remains straightforward: oil, inflation, central-bank expectations and whether risk assets can continue to compartmentalise the conflict.

Market pulse: the week ahead will show whether this remains an energy shock or becomes a wider regime shift for markets.

Conclusion

The first week of March ended with a different market narrative than the one it started with.

What began as a geopolitical escalation involving Iran evolved into a broader repricing across oil, volatility, yields, currencies and equity risk. That matters because it changes how investors interpret every new headline. This is no longer only about regional instability. It is about whether the conflict injects a fresh inflation impulse into a market that was still hoping for lower rates and calmer conditions.

Markets did not respond with indiscriminate panic, but they did respond with a clear increase in hedging and a preference for selective exposure over broad conviction. That is usually what markets look like when investors still see opportunities, but trust the backdrop less with each passing day.

The video featured on this page was generated using artificial intelligence. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and reflects an automated interpretation of the accompanying article content.

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More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke Macro ETF

Saxo Market Compass - 2 March 2026

Mon, 02 Mar 2026 16:30:00 Z

Saxo Weekly Market Compass – 2 March 2026

(Recap week of 23 to 27 February 2026)

Headlines & introduction

AI volatility, shifting rate expectations and rising geopolitical tension shaped the final week of February.

Markets oscillated between earnings-driven optimism and renewed caution as policy headlines and sector narratives kept dispersion high. By Friday, bond yields had fallen to fresh cycle lows while equity momentum cooled, setting a more fragile tone into March.
Market pulse: confidence returned mid-week, but conviction faded into the weekend.

Equities

US: AI leadership tested, but breadth improved

US equities swung sharply through the week. After an early selloff on AI disruption fears (23 February), the S&P 500 rebounded to 6,946.13 on 25 February before easing back to 6,908.86 by 26 February as Nvidia fell 5.5% despite strong results. Microsoft (+3.0% on 25 February) and Palantir (+4.2%) supported the mid-week recovery, while sharp earnings reactions in Salesforce and Block underscored rising stock dispersion.
Falling Treasury yields provided valuation support, but widening high-yield spreads suggested investors were becoming more selective.
Market pulse: leadership remains tech-heavy, but earnings volatility is increasing.

Europe and Asia: resilience in Europe, divergence in Asia

European equities pushed to fresh highs mid-week, with the Euro STOXX 50 reaching 6,172.36 on 25 February and the FTSE 100 touching a record 10,910.55 on 27 February. Buyback announcements supported select UK names, while parts of continental Europe stayed sensitive to softer sentiment data.
In Asia, Japan and South Korea outperformed on chip strength, while Hong Kong remained more volatile ahead of China’s policy meetings.
Market pulse: Europe shows resilience, but Asia remains policy- and tech-sensitive.

Volatility

Volatility cooled mid-week, then stabilised

The VIX fell from 21.01 on 23 February to 17.93 on 25 February as equities recovered. By 26 February, it stood at 18.63, signalling that hedging demand had eased but not disappeared. Weekly implied moves narrowed from roughly ±118 points early in the week to ±42 points by expiry.
Elevated skew readings indicate investors still prioritise downside protection.
Market pulse: volatility has eased from stress levels but hasn’t returned to comfort.

Market sentiment based on options flow data

Positioning shifts from expansion to protection

Last week’s options activity painted a coherent picture across asset classes: investors largely stayed invested, but with a noticeably stronger emphasis on protection and structure. Broad index and ETF flows showed a clear preference for downside hedges and volatility overlays, signalling that portfolio insurance moved higher up the priority list. Within mega-cap leadership, positioning shifted from straightforward upside participation toward more buffered exposure, suggesting that even in core growth names, risk was being actively managed rather than expanded.

At the same time, metals continued to attract constructive interest as a diversification sleeve, while energy exposure was maintained but increasingly expressed through defined-risk structures. The overall message for investors is not one of panic or capitulation, but of recalibration: capital remains deployed, yet more deliberately hedged.
Market pulse: participation remains intact, but conviction is now expressed through protection rather than leverage.

Digital assets

ETF flows stabilise despite price swings
Bitcoin traded between roughly $63,100 on 23 February and $68,176 on 25 February before easing back below $68,000 into Friday. Ethereum followed a similar pattern. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of +$254 million on 26 February after earlier outflows, with IBIT leading, while Ethereum ETFs also saw modest inflows.
Institutional participation therefore appears steady, even as prices react to broader macro shifts.
Market pulse: flows are constructive, but digital assets remain tied to macro sentiment.

Fixed income

Yields fall to cycle lows

US Treasuries rallied into week-end. The 10-year yield closed at 3.94% on 27 February, marking the first weekly close below 4.00% since mid-2024, while the 2-year yield touched levels below 3.41%. High-yield spreads widened to 291 basis points by Friday, the widest of the year.
In Europe, softer inflation readings reinforced expectations that tightening cycles are nearing completion.
Market pulse: bond markets are pricing slower growth and more cautious policy expectations.

Commodities

Gold steady, oil sensitive to geopolitics

Gold traded in a tight range near 5,200 per ounce during the week before breaking higher at the start of March. Silver showed sharper swings, briefly clearing 91 before consolidating.
Crude oil remained sensitive to developments around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, trading near multi-month highs late in the week. Energy markets are now the clearest barometer of geopolitical risk.
Market pulse: commodities are increasingly driven by geopolitics rather than demand alone.

Currencies

Dollar mixed, sterling pressured by politics

The US dollar fluctuated around 1.1800 in EURUSD through most of the week, while USDJPY reversed sharply on shifting Bank of Japan signals. Sterling weakened after a UK by-election unsettled political expectations, with EURGBP moving above 0.8750.
Commodity-linked currencies stayed sensitive to oil’s move.
Market pulse: FX markets are balancing rate differentials against political risk.

Key takeaways

AI leadership intact, but earnings volatility rising.
European indices resilient; Asia more policy-sensitive.
US 10-year yield closed below 4.00% for first time since mid-2024.
Volatility cooled, but skew remains elevated.
Bitcoin ETF inflows resumed despite price swings.
Oil risk premium building amid Iran tensions.

Looking ahead (week of 2 to 6 March 2026)

Geopolitics takes centre stage

The US-Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend materially raise geopolitical risk. Markets will focus on three transmission channels: oil supply and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, insurance and freight costs, and second-round inflation expectations. If higher energy prices persist, they could complicate the recent decline in bond yields and alter expectations for central bank policy paths.

For deeper analysis on the conflict and its market implications, readers can consult our dedicated coverage published this weekend and Monday:

the equities note on the Iran conflict (1 March),
the macro take on what to watch (2 March),
the investor Q&A on the Iran-US escalation (2 March), and
the latest Saxo Market Call podcast (2 March).

These pieces explore cross-asset implications in greater detail.

US labour market in focus

Friday’s US employment report for February is the key macro catalyst. January showed job growth of 130,000, with earlier months revised lower. Markets will assess whether hiring momentum is stabilising or slowing further. ADP employment data mid-week, ISM surveys and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book will provide additional context on growth and pricing pressures.

If payrolls surprise on either side, rate expectations and equity volatility could reprice quickly.

Earnings and consumer signals

After Nvidia’s volatile reaction, semiconductor earnings remain central. Broadcom and Marvell will be watched for AI demand commentary, while CrowdStrike provides a read on software resilience. Retail earnings from Target, Costco and Best Buy should offer insight into consumer demand trends as markets await updated retail sales data.

Market pulse: geopolitics sets the tone, but labour data and earnings will determine whether caution deepens or stabilises.

Conclusion

The final week of February highlighted a market still anchored by technology leadership but increasingly sensitive to macro and geopolitical crosscurrents. Falling bond yields and resilient European equities provide some stability, yet widening credit spreads and elevated skew signal cautious positioning beneath the surface.

As March begins, the combination of Middle East escalation, US labour data and heavyweight earnings could quickly reshape risk appetite. Staying diversified and attentive to cross-asset signals remains essential.

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More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke Macro ETF

Investor Q&A on the Iran-US conflict

Mon, 02 Mar 2026 10:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

This is an oil-and-shipping shock first, and a growth-and-earnings story second.
Higher oil can lift inflation and delay rate cuts, making bonds a less perfect hedge.
Long-term investors win by sticking to process, not by trying to trade the headline.

The weekend escalation involving the United States (US), Israel and Iran pulls markets back into “risk-off” mode. Risk-off means investors reduce exposure to shares and other risky assets, and lean into perceived safe havens.

Below is a Q&A built for long-term investors, focused on what matters most and what to watch.

The first domino is not oil, it is the cost of moving oil

Q: What just happened?
Reports point to a sharp military escalation and a jump in maritime risk around the Gulf, with tanker operations disrupted near the Strait of Hormuz. Even limited disruption matters because the strait is a narrow passage that carries a large share of global seaborne energy.

Q: Why do investors keep talking about the Strait of Hormuz?
Because it is a choke point. When a choke point gets risky, markets price two things at once: the barrel, and the delivery. Delivery costs include insurance, rerouting, delays, and “war-risk premia” which is the extra cost to operate in a war zone. Shipping stocks can pop if investors expect freight rates and war-risk surcharges to rise, even though disruption also raises costs and uncertainty.

The move is basically the market saying “rates and surcharges may rise faster than costs, at least at first”. When shipping lanes get risky, carriers often add war-risk and disruption surcharges, and global freight rates can tighten if capacity gets rerouted. That can be positive for large operators even though the situation is operationally messy.

Q: What does “sticky oil” change for a long-term investor?
It changes the inflation path more than it changes long-term demand. Higher energy costs behave like a tax on consumers and many businesses. Over time, that can squeeze profit margins, cool spending, and pressure earnings expectations, especially in energy-intensive sectors.

The second domino is inflation, and that is where the central bank headache begins

Q: Does higher oil automatically mean higher interest rates?
Not automatically. But it can slow the improvement in inflation and make central banks more cautious about cutting rates quickly. The risk is not just higher petrol bills today. The risk is higher inflation expectations tomorrow.

Q: Are government bonds still a safe haven in this kind of shock?
Sometimes, but less reliably than in a pure growth scare. If markets treat this mainly as an inflation shock, bond yields can rise even while shares fall, which weakens the classic “shares down, bonds up” cushion. That is why some investors diversify their hedges across several assets rather than expecting one instrument to do all the work.

A small example from the prior session: the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, ticker TLT, closed at 90.82 USD, up 0.4%. That is supportive, but it is not a guarantee of protection if inflation fears dominate.

The third domino is leadership rotation, not a permanent change in the rules

Q: Which areas tend to feel the pain first?
Usually the ones hit by a double whammy of higher fuel and weaker demand. Airlines and travel-linked businesses can face both, plus route disruption. Trade-exposed cyclicals especially industrials, consumer discretionary importers, and global manufacturers, often get hit early as delays and higher freight/insurance costs squeeze margins and disrupt supply chains.

Q: Who tends to look steadier, and why?
Energy-linked exposures can benefit from higher oil prices, but they also carry their own headline risk. Defence and security spending can reprice higher as governments focus on protection and resilience, although individual days can still be volatile.

In the prior close, the iShares US Aerospace & Defense ETF, ticker ITA, closed at 243.72 USD, down 1.0%. That looks counter-intuitive until you remember the market often sells broadly first, then differentiates later.

Q: What about gold, the dollar, and “safe-haven currencies”?
Gold often acts like portfolio insurance because it is less tied to any single country’s earnings outlook. The prior close fits that pattern, with GLD up 2.7%. Safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc often strengthen in risk-off episodes too. As simple proxies, the Japanese yen trust ETF, ticker FXY, closed at 58.83 USD, up 0.2%, and the Swiss franc trust ETF, ticker FXF, closed at 114.88 USD, up 0.1%.

Risks to watch while the headlines churn

The main risk is escalation that keeps shipping constrained for longer than markets expect. Watch for signs like prolonged tanker queues, wider insurance surcharges, and more rerouting. The second risk is macro. If oil stays elevated, inflation can linger, and rate cuts can become harder to deliver. The third risk is policy surprise, including sanctions, export controls, or emergency measures that alter energy flows and supply chains quickly.

Investor playbook

Treat the first 24 to 72 hours as price discovery, not a verdict on the next five years.
Stress-test your portfolio for higher oil and higher inflation, not just lower growth.
Prefer diversification across regions and sectors over concentrated “war trades”.
Set simple triggers to review risk, such as oil staying elevated for weeks, not days, and inflation expectations rising.

Back to basics, with a side of turbulence

In the end, markets usually return to cash flows and fundamentals. But the path matters. This episode is a reminder that geopolitics can raise the cost of doing business, even when demand stays intact.

For long-term investors, the goal is not to predict the next headline. It is to build a portfolio that can handle several outcomes without forcing you to sell at the worst moment. In other words, keep your process boring. The news will do its best to be exciting for you.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke Macro ETF Stocks

Saxo Market Compass - 23 February 2026

Tue, 24 Feb 2026 06:02:00 Z

Saxo Weekly Market Compass – 23 February 2026

(Recap week of 16 to 20 February 2026)

Headlines & introduction

Rates, geopolitics and trade policy shaped cross-asset direction.

Global markets navigated a week defined by hawkish Federal Reserve minutes, resilient but slowing US growth data, renewed Middle East tensions and late-week US tariff headlines. Equities remained broadly resilient despite higher yields, while volatility stayed elevated but orderly. Commodities responded quickly to geopolitical developments, and digital assets tracked macro liquidity conditions rather than internal crypto narratives.

It was a week where policy tone mattered more than positioning, and markets adjusted accordingly.

Equities

US: resilience despite higher yields and policy crosscurrents.

US equities traded in wide intraday ranges but held firm overall. The S&P 500 rose 0.6% on 18 February and added 0.7% on 20 February, even as Fed minutes (19 February) signalled caution on rate cuts and Q4 GDP printed at 1.4% (20 February). Nvidia and Amazon advanced on 18 February, reflecting continued AI-related demand, while Deere surged 11.7% on 20 February after raising guidance. Walmart slipped 1.4% the same day after issuing a cautious outlook.

Europe and Asia: local strength, selective earnings pressure and softer Hong Kong tech.

In the UK, the FTSE 100 reached a record 10,556 on 18 February, supported by banks and defence shares including BAE Systems. On the continent, the STOXX 50 rose 1.2% and the STOXX 600 gained 0.8% on 20 February as luxury and industrial names led. France’s LVMH rose 4.4% and Hermès 3.6%, while Airbus fell 6.8% after trimming production targets. In Italy, Enel declined 3.6% following tax changes. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng ended down 1.1% on 20 February as technology stocks cooled ahead of Nvidia’s results.

Market pulse: equity markets rotated across sectors rather than retreating from risk.

Volatility

Elevated, but controlled.

The VIX hovered around 20 throughout the week, easing to 19.62 on 18 February before firming again into the PCE release on 20 February. Short-term volatility gauges cooled mid-week, then re-tightened as inflation and tariff headlines approached.

Options pricing implied weekly S&P 500 moves in a ±1–2% range into expiry, consistent with event hedging rather than systemic stress. Skew remained supported for much of the week, indicating persistent demand for downside protection.

Market pulse: investors are hedging events, not pricing crisis.

Market sentiment based on options flow data

Prudence without capitulation.

Across equities and metals, last week’s options activity pointed to disciplined risk management. In broad indices and mega-cap technology, confirmed opening flow leaned heavily toward near-term downside protection, signalling that institutional participants were unwilling to remain unhedged. At the same time, selective longer-dated upside positioning and structured call activity suggest exposure was being recalibrated rather than cut.

In gold and silver, upside participation was visible, but accompanied by hedges in mining equities and targeted downside structures. The aggregate message was not panic, but caution: investors appear to be staying invested while actively pricing in volatility in an environment where macro and headline risks remain elevated.

Market pulse: positioning reflects recalibration, not retreat.

Digital assets

Liquidity-driven consolidation.

Bitcoin traded largely between USD 67,000 and 69,000 during the week before slipping toward USD 65,700 on 23 February as tariff uncertainty resurfaced. Ethereum held near USD 2,000 before easing toward USD 1,880.

ETF flows showed divergence rather than broad withdrawal, suggesting reallocation within the space. Crypto-linked equities broadly tracked US risk sentiment, reinforcing the view that digital assets remain closely tethered to macro conditions and US rate expectations.

Market pulse: crypto continues to behave as a high-beta liquidity proxy.

Fixed income

Yields test and rebound around key levels.

The US 10-year Treasury yield approached the 4.00% threshold early in the week before rebounding toward 4.10% after hawkish Fed minutes and a weak 20-year auction on 19 February. Two-year yields backed up toward 4.47%, keeping “higher for longer” expectations in play.

In Japan, strong demand at a five-year JGB auction (17 February) pushed yields lower, while January CPI slowed to 1.5% (20 February), reinforcing a measured Bank of Japan path.

Market pulse: bond markets remain the primary transmission channel for macro shifts.

Commodities

Energy and precious metals reflect geopolitical risk.

Brent crude rose toward USD 70–71 during the week as US–Iran tensions intensified, before easing modestly. Gold traded within a USD 4,860–5,140 range and briefly moved above USD 5,100 late in the week as tariff uncertainty revived defensive demand. Silver rebounded after mid-week weakness, while copper softened amid rising inventories and seasonal disruptions linked to Lunar New Year.

Market pulse: geopolitical headlines are supporting defensive commodities, while growth-sensitive signals stay mixed.

Currencies

Dollar swings with rates and trade.

The US dollar strengthened mid-week following hawkish Fed minutes, with EURUSD dipping below 1.1800 and GBPUSD breaking under 1.3500 between 19 and 20 February. The tone shifted again on 23 February as renewed tariff headlines weighed on the dollar.

USDJPY traded in a 153–155 range as yield spreads fluctuated, while the Australian dollar outperformed following strong labour data on 19 February.

Market pulse: foreign exchange remains rate-led, with trade policy adding tactical volatility.

Key takeaways

US equities showed resilience despite hawkish Fed minutes and softer GDP.
European markets were supported by defence and luxury strength.
Volatility remained elevated but contained near 20.
US yields retested the 4% zone before rebounding.
Oil and gold reflected geopolitical risk rather than demand optimism.
Digital assets consolidated in line with macro liquidity conditions.

Looking ahead (23 to 28 February 2026)

Earnings in focus: AI, housing and corporate spending.

Nvidia reports on 25 February, a key test for the AI capital expenditure narrative and broader technology valuations. Home Depot reports on 24 February, with housing demand, pricing power and inventory commentary likely to be closely watched. Canadian banks and Dell later in the week extend the read-through to credit conditions and enterprise IT spending, while Berkshire Hathaway’s results on Saturday offer a broader barometer of conglomerate-level economic exposure.

Policy and macro catalysts.

President Trump delivers the State of the Union on 24 February, with trade policy and fiscal framing likely to influence market tone following recent tariff-related legal developments. Federal Reserve speakers, including Governor Waller, remain on the calendar, keeping rate expectations in focus ahead of March policy discussions.

On the data front, the Case-Shiller home price index, weekly jobless claims and January PPI are key releases. A surprise in producer inflation could quickly feed through to front-end yields and the US dollar, with knock-on effects for growth equities and digital assets.

For long-term investors, the emphasis remains on earnings durability in a higher-rate environment.
For active investors, event sequencing around earnings and macro data may create tactical volatility windows across sectors.

Market pulse: rates and forward guidance will likely determine whether resilience extends or risk is repriced.

Conclusion

The week of 16 to 20 February highlighted a market balancing firm macro data, cautious central bank messaging and renewed trade policy uncertainty. Equities absorbed crosscurrents through sector rotation, bonds reasserted their influence over valuations, and volatility remained elevated but orderly.

With major earnings and political communication ahead, positioning appears tactical rather than complacent. Diversification and disciplined risk management remain essential as markets navigate policy-driven crosscurrents.

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More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke Macro ETF

Saxo Market Compass - 16 February 2026

Mon, 16 Feb 2026 14:30:00 Z

Saxo Weekly Market Compass – 16 February 2026

(Recap week of 9 to 13 February 2026)

Headlines & introduction

Global markets navigated a week of shifting narratives, as AI optimism, earnings dispersion and softer US inflation pulled sentiment in different directions.

Early gains in US and European equities gave way to profit-taking and renewed technology-sector caution, while bond yields reset lower after a cooler CPI print. Volatility rose but remained orderly, and digital assets consolidated as ETF flows turned selective rather than one-sided.

Equities

US: data sensitivity and earnings dispersion dominate.

US indices opened firmer, with the S&P 500 at 6,964 on 9 February and the Nasdaq 100 up 0.8% (10 February) as AI-linked shares rebounded. However, flat retail sales (11 February) and mixed earnings guidance prompted selective risk reduction. A stronger-than-expected 130k payroll print (12 February) briefly lifted yields, before CPI reintroduced caution. By 13 February, the Dow had fallen 1.3%, the S&P 500 1.6% and the Nasdaq 2.0%.

Single-name dispersion was pronounced. Oracle rose 9.6% (9 February) and Spotify 14.8% (10 February), while Cisco fell 12.3% and AppLovin 19.7% (13 February). Softer CPI at 2.4% year-on-year (reported 16 February) steadied sentiment into the close.

Market pulse: US equities remain highly reactive to inflation and earnings guidance, with leadership rotating quickly.

Europe and Asia: records fade as stock selection drives returns.

European equities followed Wall Street higher early in the week, with the STOXX 600 touching 621.58 (11 February) before easing to 618.52 (13 February). Earnings divergence drove performance: Siemens Energy gained 8.4% (12 February) and Ahold Delhaize 11.5%, while Adyen fell 21.9% and DSV declined 10.5% (13 February). UK Q4 GDP rose just 0.1% (13 February), reinforcing a modest domestic growth backdrop.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei jumped 3.9% to 56,363 (9 February) before moderating later in the week. Hong Kong traded mixed into Lunar New Year closures, while mainland indices were steadier on policy support signals.

Market pulse: outside the US, performance reflects earnings dispersion and macro cross-currents rather than broad trend momentum.

Volatility

Elevated, but structured.

The VIX rose from 17.36 (9 February) to 20.82 (12 February) as CPI and payroll risks approached, closing at 20.60 into the US holiday (13 February data). Short-dated measures such as VIX1D moved above 21, indicating tactical hedging demand, while SKEW near 142–143 showed ongoing appetite for downside protection.

Options pricing implied weekly S&P 500 moves of roughly ±65 to ±82 points mid-week, expanding toward ±128 points into the next expiry. That reflects event risk rather than disorderly positioning.

Market pulse: investors are hedged, but volatility remains contained within defined ranges.

Market sentiment based on options flow data

Constructive engagement, framed by protection.

Options flow across indices and large-cap technology indicated continued participation in risk assets, accompanied by deliberate downside protection. Index-level hedging demand remained steady, while positioning in mega-cap technology combined selective upside exposure with near-term insurance.

In metals, particularly gold, flows were two-sided, blending upside participation with structured protection. The overall picture does not signal panic or wholesale de-risking. Instead, it reflects disciplined exposure management in an environment where macro catalysts and sector dispersion remain active drivers.

Market pulse: capital remains deployed, but increasingly through risk-defined structures rather than open-ended directional bets.

Digital assets

Consolidation amid selective ETF flows.

Bitcoin traded largely between the mid- and high-$60,000s during the week, while Ethereum hovered near $1,950–2,040. ETF flows were mixed: IBIT recorded both inflows (+$26.5m on 10 February) and later outflows, while ETHA saw net redemptions mid-week.

Crypto-linked equities experienced sharper swings, with Coinbase down 7.9% (13 February) before stabilising. The pattern suggests tactical repositioning rather than capitulation, with macro data and rate expectations guiding sentiment.

Market pulse: digital assets are consolidating, awaiting clearer macro direction to re-establish trend conviction.

Fixed income

Disinflation supports a yield reset lower.

Treasuries rallied into week’s end. The 10-year yield fell toward 4.05% (13 February), while the 2-year closed below 3.41%, its lowest since 2022. Earlier in the week, payroll strength had lifted the 10-year above 4.20%, underscoring rate sensitivity to data surprises.

In Europe, the German 2-year yield held near 2.07%, reflecting restrained expectations for rapid ECB easing. Japanese long-dated bonds saw strong demand mid-week before a modest curve steepening following softer Q4 GDP.

Market pulse: bond markets are cautiously leaning toward a slower easing path, conditional on sustained inflation moderation.

Commodities

Energy weakens, gold supported, agriculture diverges.

Brent crude slipped below USD 68 by week’s end after failing to sustain moves above USD 70, as inventory builds and ebbing geopolitical risk weighed. Gold remained supported near USD 5,000, benefitting from softer yields late in the week.

Sugar fell to 13.5 cents/lb amid improved supply prospects and weaker consumption trends, while wheat climbed to a three-month high on crop concerns and short covering. Commodity performance reflected positioning shifts rather than structural demand changes.

Market pulse: commodities are trading tactically, driven by macro sensitivity and flow dynamics.

Currencies

Yield differentials continue to anchor FX moves.

The yen strengthened early in the week, with USDJPY falling toward 152.27 (12 February), before rebounding above 153 as the dollar stabilised. EURUSD traded around 1.19, reflecting shifting US rate expectations.

Sterling was volatile following weaker UK GDP, while AUDUSD briefly tested 0.7150 before retreating. FX movements largely tracked bond market repricing rather than independent risk themes.

Market pulse: currency markets remain yield-led, with the yen a key volatility driver.

Key takeaways

US equities volatile as AI narrative shifts and CPI cools to 2.4%.
VIX elevated near 20, but positioning remains orderly.
US 2-year yield below 3.41%, lowest since 2022.
Bitcoin consolidates; ETF flows selective rather than capitulative.
Brent below USD 68; gold supported by softer yields.
Yen swings mirror rate repricing dynamics.

Looking ahead (16–20 February 2026)

A shortened week concentrates risk.
US markets are closed on Monday 16 February for Presidents’ Day, compressing liquidity into four trading sessions. Holiday-thinned conditions often amplify intraday moves when trading resumes.

Policy insight and inflation in focus.
The Federal Reserve releases minutes from its late-January meeting on Wednesday 18 February, offering insight into internal debate around inflation progress and the timing of potential rate cuts. On Friday 20 February, the Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes Personal Income and Outlays for December, including the PCE price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Confirmation of moderating price pressures would reinforce last week’s yield decline; a surprise could quickly reprice the front end.

Earnings dispersion continues.
Walmart reports on Thursday, providing an important read on US consumer resilience and pricing power. Deere offers insight into agricultural and industrial demand. Analog Devices and Palo Alto Networks will test the durability of AI hardware and cybersecurity spending, while Airbus and Rio Tinto add a European industrial lens.

For active investors, event-driven volatility is likely to persist. For long-term investors, the trajectory of inflation and bond yields remains the primary anchor.

Market pulse: a compressed week with clustered catalysts raises the probability of sharper cross-asset reactions.

Conclusion

Last week demonstrated how quickly sentiment can pivot between growth optimism and disruption concerns. Softer inflation has steadied bond markets and offered tentative support to equities, yet volatility remains elevated as investors assess the durability of disinflation and earnings momentum. With PCE data and FOMC minutes ahead in a shortened week, markets are likely to remain reactive, range-bound and sensitive to policy nuance rather than headline optimism.

Related articles/content
Saxo Market Compass - 9 February 2026 Saxo Market Compass - 2 February 2026 Saxo Market Compass - 26 January 2026 - recap and insight Saxo Market Compass - 26 January 2026 Saxo Market Compass - 19 January 2026 Saxo Market Compass - 12 January 2026 The Saxo Weekly Market Compass - 15 December 2025

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Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke Macro ETF

Saxo Market Compass - 9 February 2026

Mon, 09 Feb 2026 12:00:00 Z

Saxo weekly market compass – 9 February 2026

Recap week of 2 to 6 February 2026

Headlines & introduction

February opened with sharp cross-asset swings before markets found a tentative footing into the end of the week. Equity sentiment oscillated between AI-driven sell-offs and forceful rebounds, volatility stayed elevated but orderly, and commodities experienced extreme, liquidity-led moves. At the same time, currencies and rates reflected a reassessment of central bank timing rather than a clear macro break.
Market pulse: investors are recalibrating risk, not abandoning it.

Equities – US: rotation, not capitulation

Earnings discipline returns as the key market filter.
US equities endured a volatile but ultimately stabilising week. Technology weakness early on, driven by concerns around AI monetisation and capital expenditure, gave way to a sharp rebound into Friday (3–6 February). Semiconductor stocks were central to both moves, selling off on cautious guidance before rebounding strongly as dip buyers returned. The Dow’s relative strength highlighted ongoing rotation rather than broad de-risking.

Away from chips, earnings dispersion remained pronounced. Amazon slipped after flagging a step-up in infrastructure spending, keeping margin discipline in focus, while healthcare outperformed as resilient earnings from large pharmaceutical names supported defensives (5 February).
Market pulse: US equities are rotating internally, with selectivity replacing blanket risk appetite.

Equities – Europe and Asia: local stories take the lead

Policy patience meets stock-level reality.
European markets were broadly rangebound, but index stability masked sharp stock-level moves. Germany and the Netherlands saw selective rebounds in industrials and technology, while healthcare sentiment remained sensitive after weaker medium-term guidance from Novo Nordisk earlier in the week (4–5 February). In the UK, equities faced a mixed backdrop as sterling weakness following a dovish Bank of England decision weighed on domestic names, even as exporters found support (6 February).

Asia outperformed on balance. Japan extended record gains following a decisive election outcome that reinforced expectations for fiscal support and pro-growth policy, lifting domestically focused stocks (6–9 February). China and Hong Kong remained more cautious, with tech shares sensitive to global risk swings despite improving services data.
Market pulse: outside the US, equity performance is increasingly shaped by local policy and earnings narratives.

Volatility – elevated, but controlled

Event risk keeps protection in demand.
Volatility remained a defining feature of the week, but without signs of disorder. The VIX fluctuated between the mid-teens and low 20s, peaking mid-week as technology stocks sold off before easing back as equities stabilised (6–9 February). Short-dated volatility stayed firm, signalling persistent demand for near-term protection rather than fear of a systemic drawdown.

Options markets consistently priced meaningful expected moves around key data and earnings, reinforcing a backdrop where timing risk matters. Volatility compressed into the end of the week, but did not fully unwind.
Market pulse: volatility is being managed, not ignored.

Market sentiment based on options flow data

Positioning favours resilience over conviction.
Last week’s options activity suggests investors are staying invested but becoming more deliberate about risk. Rather than stepping away from markets, positioning points to a preference for maintaining exposure while actively preparing for larger and more frequent price swings. This shows up in the increased use of protection and hedging alongside continued upside participation, a mix that typically appears when long-term confidence remains intact but near-term uncertainty is rising.

Across asset classes, this behaviour implies a market where direction matters less than resilience. Investors appear to be planning for uneven performance, sharp rotations, and headline-driven moves rather than a smooth, trend-led advance. The signal from options markets is not panic, but prudence: opportunities remain, yet the cost of being wrong is being taken more seriously.
Market pulse: investors are engaged, but risk management has become central to participation.

Digital assets – stabilisation without conviction

Crypto follows macro risk, not its own cycle.
Digital assets spent the week attempting to stabilise after sharp drawdowns. Bitcoin held a wide range between the mid-$60,000s and low-$70,000s, while Ethereum hovered near the $2,000 area, moving largely in step with equity volatility (4–6 February). Price action continues to reflect macro risk sentiment rather than crypto-specific drivers.

ETF flows reinforced the cautious tone. Spot bitcoin ETFs saw notable outflows mid-week before partial stabilisation, while Ethereum-linked products experienced selective selling rather than wholesale exits. Crypto-linked equities and miners remained more volatile than spot prices, highlighting ongoing deleveraging.
Market pulse: crypto is steadier, but confidence remains conditional on calmer equity markets.

Fixed income – labour data revives the hedge

Rates react sharply, then consolidate.
US Treasury yields fell sharply late in the week as weaker job openings, rising claims, and softer risk sentiment shifted focus back to growth risks (6 February). The 2-year yield briefly dipped below 3.45%, while the 10-year tested the 4.15% area before rebounding as equities stabilised. Credit spreads widened modestly, consistent with caution rather than stress.

In Europe, yields were steadier as the ECB reiterated a data-dependent stance. In Japan, government bond yields pushed higher earlier in the week on fiscal concerns before finding resistance.
Market pulse: bonds are regaining relevance as a portfolio stabiliser.

Commodities – leverage flush dominates price action

Liquidity, not fundamentals, drives extremes.
Commodities delivered the most dramatic moves of the week. Precious metals whipsawed violently after a historic sell-off, with gold recovering above USD 5,000 while silver remained vulnerable to liquidity gaps and forced de-risking (3–6 February). Positioning data showed aggressive reductions in speculative longs, amplifying price swings.

Oil prices eased as US–Iran talks reduced immediate supply risk, while natural gas remained exceptionally volatile after record storage withdrawals and weather-driven reversals.
Market pulse: commodity markets are clearing excess leverage, but stability remains elusive.

Currencies – central bank signals set the tone

Policy divergence, not growth, drives FX.
Currency markets reflected shifting rate expectations. Sterling weakened sharply after a dovish Bank of England hold brought forward expectations for rate cuts (6 February). The yen strengthened later in the week following Japan’s election and renewed official vigilance, while the US dollar traded unevenly as yields swung with risk sentiment.

Commodity-linked currencies were volatile, with the Australian dollar initially supported by an RBA hike before giving back gains as global risk appetite softened.
Market pulse: FX remains a clean expression of relative policy outlooks.

Key takeaways

Equity markets rotated sharply, led by technology volatility and earnings dispersion.
Volatility stayed elevated but orderly, with active use of short-dated protection.
Options flows point to engagement with tighter risk control.
Bonds reacted strongly to labour data, restoring their defensive role.
Commodities saw extreme, liquidity-driven price action.

Looking ahead – data and earnings converge

Macro releases and results may reset expectations.
The coming week brings a dense and potentially market-defining calendar. The delayed US January employment report is due mid-week, followed by the January CPI inflation print on Friday. Together, these releases will be critical for shaping expectations around the Federal Reserve’s next policy move, particularly after recent signals of cooling labour demand. Investors will look closely at wage growth, participation rates, and core inflation momentum to assess whether disinflation is progressing quickly enough to reopen the door to rate cuts later in the year.

US retail sales data will provide an additional lens on consumer resilience following the holiday period, helping investors gauge whether softer labour indicators are feeding through to spending. Alongside the data, a heavy slate of central bank speakers could influence rates and currency markets if guidance shifts.

Earnings remain an equally important catalyst. Technology investors will focus on Cisco for insight into enterprise and AI infrastructure demand, while consumer names such as Coca-Cola and McDonald’s will test defensive growth narratives and pricing power. Results from autos, pharmaceuticals, travel and digital platforms, including Ford, Moderna, Airbnb and Shopify, add further scope for sector rotation. Crypto-linked equities remain sensitive to both macro data and digital asset flows, keeping cross-asset correlations high.
Market pulse: with jobs, inflation and earnings clustered together, this week could crystallise the market’s next macro narrative.

Conclusion

Markets ended the week on firmer ground, but confidence remains conditional. Investors are staying engaged while demanding clearer earnings delivery, calmer macro signals, and improved liquidity conditions. With labour data, inflation, and a heavy earnings slate ahead, the balance between stabilisation and renewed volatility will be tested quickly. Staying diversified and flexible remains essential as February unfolds.

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke Macro ETF

Saxo Market Compass - 2 February 2026

Mon, 02 Feb 2026 14:00:00 Z

Saxo weekly market compass – 2 February 2026

Recap week of 26 to 30 January 2026

Headlines & introduction

January ended with equities still resilient, but cross-asset stress shifted decisively into commodities.
Markets opened the week supported by earnings and steady growth signals, then turned more cautious as policy uncertainty and a violent reversal in precious metals tightened risk discipline. Equity indices held near record levels, but leadership narrowed and dispersion increased. The defining late-week development was the metals rout and the risk of spillovers into funding conditions and broader risk appetite.
Market pulse: risk stayed on, but conviction required protection.

Equities

US equities hovered near records as earnings optimism met rate sensitivity.
US indices oscillated around fresh highs, with the S&P 500 briefly trading above the 7,000 mark before easing into month-end. Early-week support came from AI-linked names and select mega-cap results, but tone shifted after the Federal Reserve held rates steady and attention turned to policy continuity and leadership risk. Rising yields and a firmer dollar weighed on long-duration growth late in the week, leaving the Nasdaq more exposed than the Dow as investors prioritised balance-sheet strength and earnings quality.
Market pulse: US markets stayed firm, but leadership narrowed and valuation discipline returned.

Europe and Asia saw sharper rotations as growth data met earnings reality.
European equities ended January supported by improving activity signals, with euro area GDP expanding 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, easing recession concerns and underpinning banks and cyclicals across core markets. Stock-specific earnings dominated performance. Luxury names sold off on cautious guidance, while technology diverged sharply after SAP’s cloud outlook disappointed. UK equities were steadier, helped by defensives and energy, while Nordic markets saw pronounced single-stock volatility. In Asia, Japan underperformed as yen strength weighed on exporters, while Hong Kong extended its January rally before a sharp pullback at week’s end as global risk sentiment cooled.
Market pulse: macro improved at the margin, but earnings and global risk set direction.

Volatility

Surface calm masked pockets of rising stress.
Equity volatility remained contained for most of the week, with headline measures anchored in the mid-teens. Short-dated volatility reacted to the Fed decision and major earnings rather than signalling systemic fear. Late in the week, stress migrated into commodities, where forced unwinds amplified price swings. That shift unsettled broader sentiment despite stable equity volatility readings.
Market pulse: volatility stayed low, but the stress point moved elsewhere.

Market sentiment based on options flow data

Positioning stayed constructive, but risk discipline clearly tightened.
Options activity suggests investors remained engaged while becoming more selective in how exposure was expressed. Broad index positioning indicates a willingness to stay invested, but this exposure is increasingly paired with protection, highlighting the elevated priority of risk management. Among large US technology stocks, flows favoured balanced structures that combine participation with defined outcomes, including income generation and capped upside. Overall, the options market points to confidence in market resilience, alongside a clear acknowledgement that near-term event risk warrants caution rather than unhedged optimism.
Market pulse: engaged participation, disciplined risk control.

Digital assets

Crypto tracked macro liquidity rather than crypto-specific news.
Digital assets softened into month-end, moving in line with broader risk sentiment. Price action suggested gradual deleveraging rather than panic, as a firmer dollar and sensitivity to real yields weighed on demand. ETF flows reinforced the cautious tone, with selective resilience earlier in the week giving way to broader outflows as policy uncertainty rose.
Market pulse: crypto stayed defensive, awaiting clearer macro signals.

Fixed income

Bonds quietly regained defensive appeal.
Rates traded in a relatively narrow range, but directionally investors leaned toward safety as commodities collapsed. US Treasuries attracted demand as leverage was reduced across other asset classes, while longer-dated yields eased back toward key technical levels. In Japan, government bond yields stabilised after softer inflation data and reduced near-term tightening pressure.
Market pulse: fixed income resumed its stabilising role.

Commodities

Metals broke first as leverage and margin dynamics flipped a record rally into a rout.
The week’s defining move was the collapse in precious metals following an extraordinary run. Gold and silver fell sharply after reaching record highs, with silver’s drawdown particularly severe as crowded positioning unwound. Exchange margin increases amplified the move, forcing deleveraging into thin liquidity. The impact quickly spread to listed miners and commodity-linked equities, while a firmer dollar added pressure across non-yielding assets. Energy and industrial metals also retreated, reinforcing the sense of a broad-based tightening in risk conditions rather than a single-market correction.
Market pulse: metals shifted from momentum to forced de-risking, and the aftershocks still matter.

Currencies

The US dollar found a floor after extreme weakness.
FX markets pivoted as the commodity shock and policy uncertainty drove renewed demand for the dollar. The euro held relatively firm on improving growth data, while the yen remained volatile. Commodity-linked currencies reversed earlier gains in line with falling metals and energy prices.
Market pulse: currencies moved from trend to consolidation as stress rose.

Key takeaways

Equities remained resilient, but leadership narrowed and dispersion increased.
Volatility stayed low in equities, with stress migrating into commodities.
Options markets signalled engagement paired with tighter risk control.
Bonds regained defensive appeal late in the week.
Precious metals experienced a historically violent reversal.
The US dollar stabilised after sharp early-week weakness.

Looking ahead (week of 2 to 6 February 2026)

Markets test whether the metals shock stabilises or spills further across assets.
The immediate focus is on whether gold and silver can find a base after margin-driven deleveraging, or whether further selling pressures miners, commodity-linked credit and broader risk sentiment. If metals volatility persists, investors will watch for knock-on effects via a firmer dollar, tighter financial conditions and rising cross-asset correlations.

Macro data then becomes the referee. The US calendar is dense, with ISM manufacturing, job openings and ADP employment early in the week, culminating in Friday’s January employment report. Labour-market surprises will be critical for rate expectations following the Fed’s recent hold.

Earnings remain central to index leadership. Results from Alphabet, Amazon, AMD, Disney and Palantir will shape views on AI investment, cloud demand and margins. In the current environment, markets are likely to reward visibility and balance-sheet strength over headline beats, especially if cross-asset volatility remains elevated.

Market pulse: containment first in metals, then in rates expectations.

Conclusion

January closed with equities near record levels, but the week’s message came from commodities rather than stocks. Leverage can unwind faster than narratives, and the metals rout has tightened risk discipline across markets. If stability returns quickly, risk assets may regain momentum. If not, spillovers into currencies, credit and volatility could keep investors cautious as February begins.

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke Macro ETF

Trader Shorts: Incredible volatility in silver and gold

Fri, 30 Jan 2026 11:11:00 Z

Yesterday's incredible volatility in gold and silver continues this morning on Friday. Yesterday, gold had been shifting to the downside through the session after approaching a record high near $5,600 before selling really took off a little time after 3pm, generating liquidations and a momentum of its own, with prices tumbling about 8% in just a few minutes to a low of $5,023/oz, over 10% below the earlier all-time high. Prices stabilisedsomewhat and then moved above $5,300 within about 90 minutes of the flash crash. Moves in silver were even more exaggerated as prices tumbled 12%from a high above $121.67to $106.67 in short order before rallying back to $113 by 4:30pm.

The pressure is back on this morning. Gold tanked to $4,933 in early trading in London, touching a key Fib level support twice, before climbing back to around $5,130, while silver took a $103 handle after touching $95, where it found some near-term support. A lot speculative positioning to unwind and it could get quite nasty. We need to see what kind of damage this move has done – it may be the start of a more sober assessment by market participants about the reasons for being bullish on gold, silver etc.

For a detailed look at this week's moves in gold, silver, copper and oil, read Ole's Commodities Weekly.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Commodities UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer UK 100

Saxo Market Compass - 26 January 2026 - recap & insight (video)

Tue, 27 Jan 2026 07:47:00 Z

This video summarises the key developments from the week of 19 to 23 January 2026, including shifts in equities, volatility, currencies and commodities. It highlights how policy signals, options positioning and headline risk shaped market moves, and what themes could drive markets in the week ahead.

For the full written analysis with data and detailed commentary, read the Weekly Market Compass article via the following link:

Saxo Market Compass - 26 January 2026

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke Macro ETF

DoJ launches criminal investigation into Fed's Powell - what's going on and how could it affect rates?

Mon, 12 Jan 2026 11:49:00 Z

Another week of trading Trump: Markets are unnerved by another attack on the Fed chair, Greenland and Iran are the big geopolitical risks and banks kick off earnings season just as Trump says he will cap credit card interest.

Gold rallied to fresh record highs and the US dollar fell along with stocks on Wall Street as the US launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell, relating to a multi-billion-dollar renovation project of the Fed's headquarters.

Powell rejected the “unprecedented action” from the DoJ, saying it was designed to attack the Fed’s independence to set interest rates and fits a pattern of threats and pressure from the White House. “This new threat is not about my testimony last June or about the renovation of the Federal Reserve buildings,” Powell said in a video statement. “The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the president.”

We are seeing a revival of the ‘sell America’ trade that flared up in the wake of Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs.

That’s because the market is worried about Fed independence and its ability to set interest rates based on objective economic evidence. Trump has called Powell a "numbskull" for his refusal to cut rates to 1%, with the current range for the Fed funds rate at 3.50 - 3.75%. The DoJ investigation - though Trump said he knew nothing about it - is being seen by most as blatant intimidation of Powell and the Fed itself.

If the Fed is no longer independent then the market could also lose faith in the Fed to control not just inflation and unemployment but also tackle the next financial crisis.

Here’s how this could play out in terms of higher inflation, greater term premia for bond yields and inflation risk premia, which would tend to be positive for gold, and negative for Treasuries, USD and potentially for US stocks.

Powell’s term as Fed Chair ends in May, but he could stay on as Governor until January 2028. Most Fed chairs step down from the Board when they give up the chair.

Should he stay on the Board, another member would need to step down for either of Trump’s picks Kevin Warsh or Kevin Hassett to become Fed Chair.

Governor Stephen Miran - a Trump appointee who has called explicitly for deeper rate cuts – would be the likeliest candidate – he has to step down as Governor role this month. He is completing Adriana Kugler’s term, which ends on 30 January, although he could remain on the board if Trump re-nominates him and the Senate confirms.

But if Powell resigns from the Board and the Supreme Court says Trump can remove Lisa Cook from her Governor role, the two Kevins could join Miran on the Fed Board.

This could see a board composed of three Trump nominees willing to press for deeper rate cuts even if the economy doesn’t need them.

That said, it’s not going to be that easy for Trump to get his way on rates. The Fed’s Board of Governors reappointed eleven of the twelve regional bank presidents last month. So, a changing of the guard moment may be harder for Trump to pull off than the headlines suggest. Meanwhile, Powell has fought back and vowed to do his job – it will be interesting to see whether the DoJ investigation persuades him to remain on the Board through 2028.

All this comes against a backdrop of intense geopolitical drama...Greenland, Iran, Venezuela, Mexico....the list goes on.

Trump said on Sunday that “Greenland should make an agreement” to avoid Russia or China taking over, arguing that the US would take Greenland “one way or the other”.

Key meetings are set for this week. The foreign ministers of Denmark and Greenland, Lars Løkke Rasmussen and Vivian Motzfeldt, are due to meet US secretary of state Marco Rubio in Washington on Wednesday. Meanwhile a group of US senators are to visit Copenhagen to talk with politicians from the Danish parliament’s Greenland committee.

Meanwhile we’re keeping an eye on events in Iran and possible military action by the US. Check out the full week ahead here. Or check out today's podcast with my colleague John.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer UK 100

Oil, precious metals & defence stocks: The 3 ways markets are reacting to the US strike on Venezuela

Mon, 05 Jan 2026 09:58:00 Z

Three ways the markets are positioning after the US strike on Venezuela.

Global defence stocks: The strike on Venezuela confirms a new era of hard power, a world in which might is right. This could embolden regimes in China and Russia and favours further rearming of Europe and Asia. Rheinmetall, the largest ammunition maker in Europe, rose 7% on Monday, as did military tech and surveillance specialistHensoldt. Leonardo, Renk, BAE Systems, Babcock and others all climbed sharply.

In particular for Europe pressure on Greenland underscores rising tensions between the US and Nato allies at a time of Russian aggression, which should add further impetus to rearmament efforts among European nations. More on some of the questions and instant market reaction here.

Precious metals: The event adds to narrative of rising geopolitical risk premia and raises uncertainty around US policy, both of which favour gold as a hedging asset over the USD. Mounting geopolitical uncertainty has underpinned gold’s rapid advance last year and should continue to offer support as we consider a move towards $5,000/oz should the recent all-time high be taken out soon. Silver is also catching on with a 4% rally on Monday but we are yet to see if this is sustained.

Oil: For now, there has been limited impact on crude prices, with Brent initially lower, testing the $60 support before paring losses. Venezuela accounts for only 1% of global supply so there is limited impact on disruption near-term, whilst expectations for improving Venezuelan supply are rightly tempered by the knowledge that this would take considerable time and money. The best expression is via US companies with direct exposure to a possible US-led infrastructure rebuild – Chevron, Exxon Mobil and SLB jumped sharply early in London on Monday.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer UK 100

What Stocks are Saxo Clients Buying and Selling – 8 December

Mon, 08 Dec 2025 12:48:00 Z

Most Bought and Sold Stocks Last Week

The big single stock stories of last week included Netflix’s deal to buy Warner Bros and Meta’s decision to scale back spending on its loss-making metaverse project.

Netflix announced it will acquire the Warner Bros bit of the Warner Bros. Discovery business, which includes its studio and streaming businesses, for about $83bn.

Clients were actively buying Netflix shares last week with the stock the 6th most traded name and coming with a strong 69% net buy.

As clients bought into the move, Netflix saw one of the biggest positive position shifts last week along with Nvidia and Reddit. Alphabet and Amazon continued to attract strong investor interest along with Nvidia, which claimed the top spot once again as the most actively traded stock.

Meta was our third most traded name after it jumped on reports that the company plans to cut spending on its metaverse-focused division, Reality Labs, by as much as 30%.

BAE Systems was the most traded UK-listed company among our clients with a positive 61% net buys.

Among our most sold names last week was Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), which has come under a lot of pressure in recent weeks due to the correction in the price of Bitcoin. However, a rally last week seems to have been used by clients to sell into.

Cannabis stock Tilray saw a big position decline after going through a 1-for-10 reverse stock split that failed to ignite the stock. Tesla was among the most traded once more but attracted just 40% buys, signalling investors were trimming positions in the carmaker.

Here’s a list of our top 30 most traded stocks of the last week with the percentage of buys.

Top Stocks	Buy%
NVIDIA Corp.	61%
Alphabet Inc. Class A	65%
Meta Platforms Inc.	53%
Tesla Inc.	40%
Microsoft Corp.	56%
Netflix Inc.	69%
Strategy Inc.	29%
Vanguard S&P 500DistUCITS ETF	77%
Amazon.com Inc.	72%
Intel Corp.	50%
Apple Inc.	48%
Advanced Micro Devices Inc.	61%
iShares Bitcoin ETN	88%
Palantir Technologies Inc.	55%
Alphabet Inc. Class C	58%
NebiusGroup NV	70%
Oracle Corp.	67%
Adobe Inc.	88%
Coinbase Global Inc	52%
RigettiComputing, Inc.	44%
Robinhood Markets Inc.	54%
BAE Systems PLC	61%
CoreWeaveInc.	41%
Salesforce Inc.	55%
TSMC - ADR	58%
Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS ETF	100%
Bloom Energy Corp.	61%
Eutelsat Communications-Rights	35%
IonQInc.	62%
iShares Physical Gold ETC	75%

Source: Saxo

Read our most popular stocks from November

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities UKMustRead

Webinar Replay: UK Budget - Post-event expert reaction

Thu, 27 Nov 2025 13:50:00 Z

Join us for a comprehensive post event breakdown of the UK Autumn Budget and what it means for you. Our experts will unpack the key announcements, highlight policy shifts, tax changes, and sector implications, and share actionable insights to help you navigate the evolving economic landscape with confidence.

Speakers:
- Helen Thomas, CEO and Founder, Blonde Money
- Simon Thomas, Managing Director, Ridgefield Consulting
- Neil Wilson, UK Investment Specialist, Saxo

Saxo

Topics: Macro UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer UK 100 UK Budget 2025 UK Blonde Money Podcast

UK Budget Series with BlondeMoney: Episode 4 - Which parts of the stock market could be hit?

Thu, 20 Nov 2025 09:34:00 Z

Join Neil Wilson and BlondeMoney's Helen Thomas for a dive into what's at stake for the stock market and individual sectors of the UK market with the Budget on 26, November, in the final instalment of our 4-part Budget series.

In our first episode we looked at the 'Big Picture' in terms of the macroeconomic environment and the outlook for gilts.

Episode 2 looked at the outlook for sterling.

Episode 3 was about specific tax hikes that could be coming that will affect your investments.

In the meantime, you can read a detailed look at possible market outcomes from the Budget.

Or read here for our latest on the Budget.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer UK 100 UK Budget 2025 UK Blonde Money Podcast

UK Budget Series with BlondeMoney: Episode 3 - How could changes to taxes, thresholds and allowances affect your investments?

Wed, 19 Nov 2025 10:16:00 Z

Personal finance: what might change to allowances and how might these affect your investments? There’s always winners and losers from the Budget...will we all be losers this time? Join Neil Wilson and BlondeMoney's Helen Thomas for a dive into what's at stake with the Budget on 26, November, in the third of our 4-part Budget series.

In our first episode we looked at the 'Big Picture' in terms of the macroeconomic environment and the outlook for gilts.

Episode 2 looked at the outlook for sterling.

Stay tuned for Episode 4, where we'll cover the stock market reaction and how individual sectors could be impacted.

In the meantime, you can read a detailed look at possible market outcomes from the Budget.

Or read here for our latest on the Budget.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer UK 100 UK Budget 2025 UK Blonde Money Podcast

UK Budget Series with BlondeMoney: Episode 2 - How will the pound react?

Tue, 11 Nov 2025 14:50:00 Z

Sterling and trading the event: what can happen, what might happen, what has happened before...? Where is the Bank of England on this? What does the twin deficit mean for the pound in this context and in the context of the dollar and euro. Join Neil Wilson and BlondeMoney's Helen Thomas for a dive into what's at stake with the Budget on 26, November, in the second of our 4-part Budget series.

In our first episode we looked at the 'Big Picture' in terms of the macroeconomic environment and the outlook for gilts.

Stay tuned for Episode 3, which will look at the specific tax measures on the table and what these might mean to you and your investments.

In the meantime, you can read a detailed look at possible market outcomes from the Budget.

Or read here for our latest on the Budget.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer UK 100 UK Budget 2025 UK Blonde Money Podcast

What Stocks are Saxo Clients Buying and Selling – 11 November

Tue, 11 Nov 2025 13:28:00 Z

Most Bought and Sold Stocks Last Week

Meta remained on the watchlist for clients last week as investors bought into recent weakness in the shares, which broke below the 200-day moving average.

Chip stocks and AI plays were strong - Nvidia, Broadcom and AMD all seeing strong net buys as investors bought the dip as the Nasdaq Composite posted its worst week since April.

Strong buying was seen with some of the most popular tech stocks - Amazon (75% net buys) and Netflix (80%)

Among the biggest position changes we saw week-on-week was in Duolingo after the stock plunged 25% in a single day despite beating expectations for user growth, though this was not one of the most actively traded names.

There was a significant positive position shift in the iShares Bitcoin ETN in absolute terms - however this may be skewed by the fact that these cryptoassets have only recently been made available to UK retail investors. The Global X Uranium ETF made our top 30 most traded, with two-thirds net buys.

For UK stocks, Diageo stood out, heavily sold by clients after it posted a profits warning and shares fell to a 10-year low. ITV and BT attracted attention as they posted results.

Here’s a rundown of the top 30 most actively traded stocks and ETFs with the percentage of buys.

Top Stocks	Buy%
Palantir Technologies Inc.	49%
Tesla Inc.	61%
Meta Platforms Inc.	58%
NVIDIA Corp.	63%
Advanced Micro Devices Inc.	63%
Microsoft Corp.	44%
Apple Inc.	50%
Alphabet Inc. Class A	58%
Micron Technology Inc.	68%
MP Materials Corp.	59%
ITV Plc	36%
Netflix Inc.	80%
Oracle Corp.	43%
Amazon.com Inc.	75%
Eli Lilly & Co.	65%
Robinhood Markets Inc.	43%
SoundHound AI Inc	40%
Archer Aviation Inc.	57%
Arista Networks Inc.	60%
Arm Holdings Limited - ADR	60%
Bloom Energy Corp.	56%
Broadcom Inc.	71%
BT Group PLC	48%
Coeur Mining Inc.	50%
Coinbase Global Inc	67%
CoreWeave Inc.	40%
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd.	50%
Diageo Plc	6%
Fiserv Inc.	75%
Global X Uranium ETF	67%

Source: Saxo

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities UKMustRead

What Stocks are Saxo Clients Buying and Selling – 3 November

Mon, 03 Nov 2025 13:26:00 Z

Most Bought and Sold Stocks Last Week

One stock stood out last week as investors piled into Meta after the company’s shares fell abruptly after its latest earnings update.

Meta shares fell around 13% after the company reported third-quarter earnings that beat on sales, but it also reported a $16 billion one-time tax charge.

Some of the biggest position changes week-on-week included buying into Fiserv, shares of which halved in value last week, as well as Strive (Asset Entities), the Bitcoin holding company owned by Vivek Ramaswamy, the one-time Republican presidential hopeful.

Other top traded names included Palantir and Alphabet as US tech stocks rallied to complete a 4.7% gain in the Nasdaq for October.

Conversely, clients were offloading Amazon last week despite the company’s earnings sending shares up 10% on Friday.

It posted cloud revenues +20% in Q3, with CEO Andy Jassy saying that AWS is "growing at a pace we haven't seen since 2022".

We also noted negative position changes in Intel, Tesla and GSK.

Here’s a rundown of the top 30 most actively traded stocks and ETFs with the percentage of buys.

Top Stocks	Buy%
NVIDIA Corp.	54%
Meta Platforms Inc.	79%
Amazon.com Inc.	40%
Tesla Inc.	49%
Microsoft Corp.	60%
Palantir Technologies Inc.	61%
Alphabet Inc. Class A	60%
Apple Inc.	50%
Advanced Micro Devices Inc.	57%
Vanguard S&P 500 Dist UCITS ETF	72%
Intel Corp.	36%
Strategy Inc.	78%
Broadcom Inc.	64%
Netflix Inc.	57%
PayPal Holdings Inc.	64%
Fiserv Inc.	86%
iShares Physical Gold ETC	64%
Qualcomm Inc.	57%
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd - ADR	50%
MP Materials Corp.	63%
TSMC - ADR	32%
UnitedHealth Group Inc.	50%
Nebius Group NV	65%
Oracle Corp.	60%
SoFi Technologies Inc	58%
CoreWeave Inc.	76%
Novo Nordisk B A/S	84%
BitMine Immersion Technologies Inc	86%
Coinbase Global Inc	48%
Rio Tinto Plc	16%

Source: Saxo

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities UKMustRead

UK Budget Series with BlondeMoney: Episode 1 Macro and Gilts

Mon, 03 Nov 2025 12:35:00 Z

Macro and Gilts: the Big Picture and what is at stake for the UK debt story – are we facing a major fiscal event and crisis? Join Neil Wilson and BlondeMoney's Helen Thomas for a dive into what's at stake with the Budget on 26, November, in the first of our 4-part Budget series.

Stay tuned for Episode 2, which will cover how the Budget could impact sterling.

In the meantime, you can read a detailed look at possible market outcomes from the Budget.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer UK 100 UK Budget 2025 UK Blonde Money Podcast

The Week Ahead: Mag 7 report earnings, Fed to cut rates again and Trump to meet China’s Xi

Fri, 24 Oct 2025 09:10:00 Z

It’s about as busy a week as you can get for financial markets.

Your guide to the trading week ahead covering 27 - 31 October

It’s about as busy a week as you can get for financial markets.

US earnings season hits warp speed as 5 of the Mag7 stocks report

President Donald Trump will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates again

The Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada and ECB are also in action

US government shutdown delays data releases

APEC meetings shine spotlight on Asia

Monday, 27 October

Not the fastest start to the week with just a smattering of mid-tier economic data and no major earnings.

Donald Trump is on a multi-country visit to Asia that’s expected to include meetings with Sanae Takaichi, Japan’s first female prime minister. It comes at the start of a week of APEC meetings in South Korea that will put the focus on Asian economies and trade.

Tuesday, 28 October

Earnings season in the US continues with PayPal, UnitedHealth Group, Booking Holdings, Mondelez and Visa among the large cap stocks to report. HSBC is the major UK listed company to report, while BNP Paribas reports in Paris.

Investors always pay close attention to what Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has to say - he delivers a keynote address at the company’s GPU Technology Conference in Washington.

Wednesday, 29 October

The Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to cut rates for the second month in a row, with investors looking out for signs of whether a third will come before the end of the year. The Bank of Canada is also expected to cut but sticky inflation has cast a little extra doubt on the outcome of the meeting.

Earnings come from Boeing, Caterpillar, Etsy, Starbucks and three Magnificent 7 stocks – Meta Platforms, Microsoft and Alphabet. On the FTSE, GSK reports.

The Netherlands holds a snap election triggered by the collapse of Prime Minister Dick Schoof’s government in June after Geert Wilders pulled his Freedom party (PVV) out of the 11-month-old ruling coalition.

Thursday, 30 October

US president Donald Trump will meet his Chinese counterpart today on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, or APEC, Summit. Trump last met Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2019 and the mood of the talks will be important for risk sentiment as the high stakes meeting comes at a key moment relating to trade and tariffs. The trade truce between the two countries expires on 10 November, while Trump has also set a 1 November date for imposing additional 100% tariffs.

The European Central Bank decision is unlikely to have much impact – all eyes are on the December meeting. The Bank of Japan could offer more excitement as it holds its first policy meeting since the election of pro-stimulus fiscal dove Takaichi. It also comes after inflation rose to 2.9% year-on-year in September from the previous month’s 2.7%. The prevailing thinking is that we see a split vote at this meeting and the next hike in December.

US earnings come from Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Estee Lauder, Apple and Amazon. Crypto stocks Coinbase, Riot and Strategy are all due to provide earnings updates as well. In London, Shell and Standard Chartered are due to report.

Friday, 31 October

Earnings week comes to a close on Wall Street with AbbVie, Aon, Chevron and Exxon Mobil due to report.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is back again as he and Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser are among the speakers on the last day of the APEC CEO Summit in South Korea.

On the data front, Chinese PMI data will be one to watch for risk sentiment at the start of the European session – albeit any fallout or progress on trade from those Trump-Xi talks will be the most important thing. Eurozone CPI numbers are out, and US PCE inflation is slated but unlikely to appear due to the shutdown.

Check the calendar for all upcoming events.

Check outlast month's most popular shares.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer UK 100

Trader Shorts: Netflix vs Disney

Tue, 21 Oct 2025 08:34:00 Z

Netflix reports earnings after the close tonight.

Research from Antenna shows rival Disney suffered a big uptick in cancellations last month - could this help Netflix as its churn rate remains steady?

Click here for a full preview of Netflix earnings

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer UK 100

What Stocks are Saxo Clients Buying and Selling – 21 October

Tue, 21 Oct 2025 08:10:00 Z

Most Bought and Sold Stocks Last Week

Investors used the opportunity of the tech-led, trade war-inspired selloff of Friday 10, October to lean into some big tech names, notably Nvidia, which topped the list of the most active stocks with a strong bullish bias (59% buys) as clients turned positive on the stock again. Amazon was similarly well bid by clients, as was AMD.

Clients were net buyers of the broader US market via the Vanguard S&P 500 Dist UCITS ETF.

Weakness in crypto markets has spurred buying of bitcoin treasury company Strategy, while BitMine Immersion Technologies remained a favourite.

Quantum computing names were again very popular, but we evidence mixed sentiment around the big players in the space – Rigetti, IonQ and D-Wave.

Among the biggest position changes week-on-week we saw interest in nuclear energy stock Oklo, rare earths miner MP Materials, and Wall Street bank Morgan Stanley, which posted bumper earnings last week.

We saw negative sentiment on Tesla, Intel and Rolls-Royce as clients turned net sellers of those stocks.

Here’s a rundown of the top 20 most actively traded stocks with the percentage of buys.

Top Stocks	Buy%
NVIDIA Corp.	59%
Amazon.com Inc.	61%
Tesla Inc.	42%
Rigetti Computing, Inc.	47%
Advanced Micro Devices Inc.	54%
Vanguard S&P 500 Dist UCITS ETF	72%
Palantir Technologies Inc.	53%
Strategy Inc.	72%
iShares Physical Gold ETC	54%
MP Materials Corp.	56%
D-Wave Quantum Inc.	44%
IonQ Inc.	63%
Meta Platforms Inc.	49%
Oracle Corp.	51%
Rolls-Royce Holdings PLC	38%
Intel Corp.	39%
Alphabet Inc. Class A	50%
Broadcom Inc.	54%
BitMine Immersion Technologies Inc	73%
Microsoft Corp.	53%

Source: Saxo

Check out last month's most popular shares.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities UKMustRead

The Week Ahead: Tesla and Netflix headline earnings and delayed US CPI inflation report due

Fri, 17 Oct 2025 08:41:00 Z

US earnings season gets into full swing with Wall Street banks reporting.

Your guide to the trading week ahead covering 20 - 24 October

US earnings season hits full pace this week as market giants Tesla and Netflix report Q3 updates. They headline a busy week on Wall Street as investors grapple with earnings against a backdrop of worries about bad loans at regional banks in the US as well as sky-high valuations and trade war grumblings.

Economic data from the US will be sparse as long as the government remains shuttered. However, we will get a delayed September CPI inflation report, which has been specially put together despite the shutdown in order to provide the Federal Reserve with data ahead of its 28-29 October meeting.

From Monday through Thursday China’s ruling Communist Party will hold its Fourth Plenum to discuss the 15th five-year plan for the economy.

Monday, 20 October

Currency markets will be digesting fresh comments from Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey and European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde over the weekend. The first data point is the New Zealand CPI price, which could help provide some clarity around whether the RBNZ was right to cut by 50bps at its recent meeting.

A swathe of economic data from China, including the latest GDP, industrial production and retail sales figures, will provide the backdrop for risk sentiment in Europe. These could see the needle move on industrials, energy and basic resources stocks. BHP also provides a trading update.

Tuesday, 21 October

Earnings season gets underway with a host of Dow components posting Q3 numbers. From the Dow we hear from 3M, Coca-Cola, and Verizon, while GE Aerospace, General Motors and Philip Morris are also due to report. In London, Bunzl provides a trading update.

The earnings highlight, however, is Netflix, which is poised to report a strong quarter after the market closes. Ad revenue is expected to improve and limit churn among subscribers. “As Netflix continues to enhance its ads business by expanding partnerships, improving targeting, and adding more live content, its aim of doubling ads revenue this year is entirely achievable,” analysts at Wedbush wrote in a note ahead of the earnings report.

Elsewhere, keep watch on the outcome of a UK 30yr gilt auction – signs of stress ahead of the Budget next month could show up here. Canadian CPI inflation data is the main economic data point, whilst we should hear from a number of ECB and Fed speakers.

Wednesday, 22 October

Tesla’s Q3 earnings report is undoubtedly the highlight, due after the close. It comes to the pass with record deliveries but profits underwhelming. Testa posted total deliveries in Q3 2025 of 497,099, 7% higher than a year before. But automotive gross margins are down to 17%, about half they were back in 2021. The bull thesis increasingly rests on robotics, AI and power generation. TSLA stock has rallied about 80% from its April lows.

In the UK, Barclays reports Q3 earnings, with investors hopeful it’s enjoyed some of the investment banking and trading uplift reported by its Wall Street rivals. Aberdeen Group, Reckitt Benckiser, Fresnillo and Hochschild Mining provide trading updates. In the US, AT&T, CME Group, GE Vernova, Themo Fisher Scientific, IBM and QuantumScape are also due to report.

On the economic front, the latest UK CPI inflation report will be closely watched. The BoE’s Bailey has been talking up jobs market weakness, which combined with recent wage data has increased expectations for an earlier rate cut – perhaps December instead of 2026. But at 3.8% in the previous month, inflation remains well above the bank’s target.

Thursday, 23 October

Plenty of action on the FTSE 350 with Dunelm, Hunting, Inchcape, InterContinental Hotels, LSEG, RELX, Rentokil and Unilever providing trading updates. Lloyds provides Q3 results and will be looked over for areas such as loan loss provisions in light of the FCA’s motor finance compensation. US earnings come from Blackstone, Ford, Intel and Newmont.

Friday, 24 October

The delayed US CPI inflation report is released today, giving investors a better sense of whether the September rate cut was a one-off or it marks the start of a sustained easing cycle. Despite the shutdown the Bureau of Labor Statistics has brought staff back specifically to get this report ready in time for the Fed’s meeting of 28-29 October.

NatWest group rounds out the bank earnings reports in the UK. This will be watched alongside fresh UK consumer confidence and retail sales figures ahead of the Budget next month.

Check the calendar for all upcoming events.

Check outlast month's most popular shares.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer UK 100

What Stocks are Saxo Clients Buying and Selling – 13 October

Mon, 13 Oct 2025 07:56:00 Z

Most Bought and Sold Stocks Last Week

Tech giants Meta, Amazon and Palantir were among the most heavily bought stocks on the platform last week.

Among the biggest relative position changes, which helps illustrate short-term trends, crypto stocks BitMine Immersion Technologies, Strategy and Circle Internet saw some of the most pronounced change in activity.

Ferrari also saw a big position shift as clients bought into weakness after it suffered its worst one-day fall on record after slashing EV targets.

Rolls-Royce was popular as it had a rare dose of weakness last week.

Quantum computing stocks remained very popular with strong buying in the likes of Rigetti, D-Wave and IonQ.

Clients were net sellers of Intel and AMD into strength, while Micron was again being sold.

Here’s a rundown of the top 20 most actively traded stocks with the percentage of buys.

Top Stocks	Buy%
NVIDIA Corp.	48%
Tesla Inc.	57%
Meta Platforms Inc.	75%
Palantir Technologies Inc.	63%
Amazon.com Inc.	55%
Rolls-Royce Holdings PLC	67%
Alphabet Inc. Class A	55%
Intel Corp.	62%
Rigetti Computing, Inc.	50%
IonQ Inc.	60%
Microsoft Corp.	48%
Robinhood Markets Inc.	66%
Apple Inc.	53%
CoreWeave Inc.	58%
Oracle Corp.	47%
Advanced Micro Devices Inc.	48%
Coinbase Global Inc	45%
Nebius Group NV	58%
Vanguard S&P 500 Dist UCITS ETF	71%
BitMine Immersion Technologies Inc	93%

Source: Saxo

Check out last month's most popular shares.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities UKMustRead

The Week Ahead: US Q3 earnings season kicks off with Wall Street banks

Fri, 10 Oct 2025 12:08:00 Z

US earnings season gets into full swing with Wall Street banks reporting.

Your guide to the trading week ahead covering 13 - 17 October

US earnings season gets into full swing this week as the big banks on Wall Street report their third quarter results. A flurry of IPOs and strong M&A activity should support investment bank earnings while NII expectations are set to remain robust as the US economy has stayed solid, but there could be some doubts about loan growth and deposit levels.

The ongoing US government shutdown will delay some important inflation and retail sales numbers this week, but the key CPI inflation report due on Tuesday, 15 October, may get released as the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is calling back some furloughed workers so it can get the benchmark inflation report out. Although it may not be released as scheduled it is thought it will be out before the Federal Reserve’s next meeting on 28-29 October.

On the political front we’ll see how long the latest French government lasts and whether it looks like it can cobble together a budget for 2025. Japan’s political scene will also be in focus after the Komeito party quit the ruling coalition just days after Takaichi Sanae was elected LDP leader and prime minister.

IMF and World Bank meetings take place in New York, so expect plenty of jawboning about the state of the global economy, trade policies, currency movements and fiscal profligacy.

Also watch for news on miners and metals as it’s LME Week, the annual gathering of the global metals industry in London.

Monday, 13 October

Columbus Day in the US sees bond markets closed but stock markets remain open. Thanksgiving holiday in Canada means all markets there are closed. Central bankers and finance ministers convene in Washington for the Annual Meetings of International Monetary Fund and World Bank.

Tuesday, 14 October

Big banks get Q3 earnings season going properly - JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citi, Wells Fargo and BlackRock are due to report. Johnson & Johnson is also slated to report.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks, while we also hear from Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey on the day that UK unemployment and average earnings data are released.

Argentina’s President Javier Milei is due to visit the White House for talks on strengthening the strategic partnership with the US, just a few days after the US Treasury intervened in the country’s currency market for the first time. It comes ahead of key mid-term elections due on 26 October amid waning confidence in Argentina’s president has seen a run on the peso.

Wednesday, 15 October

Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and ASML earnings are due up. US CPI inflation data is due, but it’s unlikely to be released on time despite efforts to bring back furloughed BLS workers to get the release before the Fed decision on 29 October. Chinese inflation data is one to watch earlier while we should get the Fed’s Beige Book, a survey assessment of the country’s economic disposition.

Several central bankers are speaking, including the Bank of England’s Breeden, Fed governor Waller (dovish) and Trump’s governor pick Miran (very dovish).

Thursday, 16 October

UK GDP figures are the main event early doors, which are accompanied by construction output, industrial production and trade data. US PPI inflation and retail sales are slated but again are dependent on the shutdown lifting in time. A slew of central bankers are due to speak with Christine Lagarde, the European Central Bank president, the highlight. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is due to report its Q3 results.

Friday, 17 October

Lots more central bankers speak in New York as the IMF and World Bank meetings wind up, but my feeling is that we should be paying close attention to a speech in London from Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill, who’s been vocal on the path of rates and the inflation-employment trade-off the central bank is treading. Eurozone CPI data will be important for the ECB and sentiment on the euro. American Express and oilfield services company SLB report earnings.

Check the calendar for all upcoming events.

Check outlast month's most popular shares.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer UK 100

What Stocks are Saxo Clients Buying and Selling – 6 October

Mon, 06 Oct 2025 11:44:00 Z

Most Bought and Sold Stocks Last Week

BitMine Immersion Technologies was about the most popular stock last week among clients, closely followed by Amazon and CoreWeave, another AI play.

More AI and AI adjacent stocks were popular, including Nebius Group, Intel and Palantir

Clients were active in Nvidia and Tesla as ever but were just about net sellers.

We also saw selling in Micron, SoFi and Robinhood.

Our most popular ETF was the iShares Physical Gold ETC, while Rolls-Royce was the top UK-listed stock for clients last week.

Here’s a rundown of the top 20 most actively traded stocks with percentage of buys.

Top Stocks (by activity)	Buy%
NVIDIA Corp.	47%
Tesla Inc.	47%
Amazon.com Inc.	67%
CoreWeave Inc.	59%
Micron Technology Inc.	40%
Alphabet Inc. Class A	50%
BitMine Immersion Technologies Inc	91%
Nebius Group NV	62%
Robinhood Markets Inc.	27%
Intel Corp.	71%
Palantir Technologies Inc.	54%
Rolls-Royce Holdings PLC	53%
SoFi Technologies Inc	40%
Meta Platforms Inc.	67%
IREN Ltd.	67%
iShares Physical Gold ETC	92%
Rigetti Computing, Inc.	58%
Wolfspeed Inc.	46%
Advanced Micro Devices Inc.	56%
Oklo Inc.	65%

Source: Saxo

Check out last month's most popular shares.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities UKMustRead

The Week Ahead: Prepare for US earnings season + Opec meeting and Japan leadership election fallout

Fri, 03 Oct 2025 09:01:00 Z

How long does the US government shutdown last?

Your guide to the trading week ahead covering 6 - 10 October

Q3 is behind and it’s almost the start of earnings season on Wall Street. Delta Air Lines and PepsiCo are now the unofficial start of earnings on Thursday, with BlackRock to follow on Friday before the real action starts from the following week.

Another key question facing investors is how long will the US government shutdown last. US data will likely be delayed until it’s open again, which could mean we don’t get some high frequency employment stats this week.

Opec+ meets on Sunday to decide output hikes after a sharp correction for crude prices.

Elsewhere we look to the fallout from Japan, where on Saturday the country’s ruling LDP party elected a new leader and prime minister.

And this week we hear from leading central bankers with Fed chair Jay Powell ECB president Christine Lagarde and Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey all due to speak.

Finally, will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize?

Monday, 6 October

Early on during the Asian session expect some movement in JPY crosses as the market reacts to Saturday’s LDP leadership election.

Later we hear from Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey. Sterling and gilts will be on watch for signs of fresh dovishness, after he recently suggested the Monetary Policy Committee could cut interest rates faster if the jobs market slows. ECB President Christine Lagarde will testify in the European Parliament.

The Conservative Party holds its annual conference in Manchester, which runs through to Wednesday.

Tuesday, 7 October

Could be some nuggets from Fed Governor Stephen Miran, who’s speaking at a fireside chat at the MFA Policy Outlook 2025 conference. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic is also due to speak.

Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days event begins

Wednesday, 8 October

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is forecast to cut interest rates and release the monetary policy review. Fed meeting minutes from its September gathering are due but could be delayed by the shutdown.

Thursday, 9 October

Earnings season kicks off with reports from Delta Air Lines (DAL) and PepsiCo (PEP).

DAL is the flag bearer for the airline industry – in July the stock jumped on a positive update as it reinstated its full-year profit outlook as bookings stabilised. On-again, off-again tariffs and a tough consumer backdrop weighed earlier in the year but lately there have been clear signs of improvement. Delta expects 2025 adjusted earnings of between $5.25 and $6.25 a share, down from a January forecast of more than $7.35 a share when it predicted 2025 would be its best ever year.

PEP is another stock that’s a tariff play – last quarter the stock rose on its earnings update after detailing more about its turnaround plan. CEO Ramon Laguarta said the firm wouldhit the low-end of its long-term organic revenue growth target of 4% to 6% “in the next few quarters”.

Fed speakers galore - Chair Jerome Powell delivers pre-recorded remarks at a
community banking conference, where Treasury Secretary Scott
Bessent and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman are also due to speak. Fed Governor Michael Barr is also due to speak. Weekly unemployment claims figures are due but may not be released due to the shutdown.

Friday, 10 October

The Nobel Peace Prize winner is announced – will it be Donald Trump?

Elsewhere we look to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations surveys, plus potentially a credit rating report for the UK, though this is unlikely to see any change ahead of the Budget next month. For more on this click here.

Check the calendar for all upcoming events.

Check outlast month's most popular shares.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer UK 100

What Stocks are Saxo Clients Buying and Selling – 29 September

Mon, 29 Sep 2025 10:34:00 Z

Most Bought and Sold Stocks Last Week

AI, defence, quantum computing and gold miners were the big themes of the last week for clients at Saxo.

Firstly, top AI stocks Nvidia, Oracle and Palantir were among the most actively bought names on the platform along with other Mag 7 members Amazon and Tesla.

At the next rung down we saw interest in the likes of Nebius, AMD, Intel, Micron and CoreWeave. Tempus AI attrached negative client sentiment

Quantum computing stocks were actively traded amid some heightened volatility in the space, with D-Wave and Quantum Computing attracting the most interest, though sentiment on these stocks was mixed clients net sellers of Rigetti and IonQ.

In the crypto space clients were selling Coinbase and Strategy and buying BitMine Immersion Technologies.

Meme stock Opendoor Technolgies remained a retail favourite last week.

In terms of position changes we saw a stronger move into the gold miners via the VanEck Gold Miners UCITS ETF.

Rolls Royce was the most bought UK-listed stock as defence names picked up some attention following those remarks by Donald Trump on Ukraine.

Below I’ve picked out the most actively traded stocks with the greatest positive client sentiment as measured by the % of buy trades last week.

Top Stocks	Buy%
BitMine Immersion Technologies Inc	81%
Opendoor Technologies Inc.	78%
Micron Technology Inc.	71%
Oracle Corp.	71%
D-Wave Quantum Inc.	69%
Nebius Group NV	65%
Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc	64%
Quantum Computing Inc	63%
CoreWeave Inc.	62%
Microsoft Corp.	62%
Amazon.com Inc.	61%
BigBear.ai Holdings Inc.	59%
Palantir Technologies Inc	58%
Astera Labs Inc.	57%
SoFi Technologies Inc	56%
NVIDIA Corp.	54%
Tesla Inc.	54%

Source: Saxo

Check out last month's most popular shares.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities UKMustRead

The Week Ahead: US payrolls, govt shutdown worries + Tesco, Greggs and Nike to report earnings

Fri, 26 Sep 2025 07:50:00 Z

US nonfarm payrolls will be key to whether the Fed cuts again this year.

Your guide to the trading week ahead covering 29 September - 3 October

US nonfarm payrolls provide the highlight at the end of a busy week for economic data, while earnings season is just about to get started as October starts.

The monthly US labour market report will provide the steer on the likelihood of further rate cuts this year, but before this there is a slew of employment data in the form of the JOLTS job openings report, ADP payrolls data and weekly unemployment claims. Eurozone inflation data will be important for assessing what the European Central Bank is likely to do next.

Worries about a government shutdown are also in focus. The White House is drafting a request for federal agencies to prepare ‘reduction in force’ plans in case Congress doesn’t pass a spending bill before 1 Oct.

We'll be keeping an eye out for Tesla delivery numbers, too.

For earnings we are looking at Nike, Tesco, JD Wetherspoon and Greggs.

Monday, 29 September

UK lending data will show whether there is any life in the mortgage market as consumers look ahead to potential changes in the Budget. We’re also set to hear from several FOMC members and Germany’s central bank chief amid a fairly quiet session for economic data.

Tuesday, 30 September

China manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs will let investors know the world’s second-largest economy is faring. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to leave interest rates on hold with attention on whether policymakers signal a cut is coming in November. Revised UK GDP figures for Q2 are due but this is not likely to move the needle on gilts or sterling. German preliminary CPI inflation data is due ahead of a speech by European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde. In the US, JOLTS job openings and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence survey are likely to provide some narrative spin on the state of the US economy and what the Fed may do next.

Nike earnings will be in focus – can it recover some momentum with shares at 2-month lows? Expectations have been reset but tariffs remain a problem. Sales are seen falling 7%.

Wednesday, 1 October

Congress needs to approve a spending bill by today to avoid a government shutdown.
Eurozone inflation data will be the main event on the European session – is there further cooling that will allow the ECB to cut rates again this year? In August the CPI inflation rate was back on target at 2.0%.

In the US session, we’ll be paying close attention to the ISM manufacturing survey – particularly the prices data for clues as to the direction of inflation. ADP employment data will watched ahead of Friday’s official payrolls report.

Have we reached peak Greggs? Earnings from the baker will be one to watch. Shares are at their lowest in five years after a profits warning in July – first half profits slumped 14% as sales growth cooled faster than a sausage roll due to the hot summer.

Thursday, 2 October

US weekly jobless claims data is the most crucial piece of fast-moving data for the market. Last week was surprisingly strong, falling to 218,000, well below the estimate. This sparked a sell-off in bonds, pushing up yields and sending stocks down on expectations that it could see the Federal Reserve refrain from further rate cuts.

On the earnings calendar, watch for Tesco, which has been putting a strong showing of late with the shares hitting their highest in 12 years. Recent Kantar data suggests Tesco has continued to grow market share – expect strong numbers.

Friday, 3 October

Nonfarm payrolls is the main event: the weak jobs report for August sealed the deal on the Fed’s rate cut in September. But more recent data has been positive, clouding the market outlook on how many cuts the FOMC will go for this year. August saw just 22k jobs added, well below forecast, whilst the unemployment rate edged up to 4.3%. Markets expect just 39,000 jobs were added in September, with unemployment steady from the month before.

JD Wetherspoon reports earnings. It’s been slashing price and opening new pubs and shares have risen about 11% this year. National Insurance and minimum wage increases weigh and the Budget looms in November.

Check the calendar for all upcoming events.

Check out last month's most popular shares.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer UK 100

Nvidia's $100bn OpenAI investment sparks global chip rally

Tue, 23 Sep 2025 08:49:00 Z

Nvidia's $100bn investment in OpenAI is a monster deal that has ignited a global chip stock rally.

As well as Nvidia shares rallying 4% yesterday, the likes of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co and SKY Hynix have followed with gains. Samsung -which could become a supplier to Nvidia soon - also rose.

In Europe, STMicro, Infineon and BE Semiconductor have also risen. Retail investor favourites CoreWeave and Nebius also jumped.

The investment by Nvidia underlines that this is a sector going through a broad-based, rapid expansion - it's not a zero sum game with winner-takes-all.

AI stocks have enjoyed a strong year - we recently highlighted the L&G Artificial Intelligence UCITS ETF as one of the best performing funds last month.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer UK 100

What Stocks are Saxo Clients Buying and Selling – 22 September

Mon, 22 Sep 2025 09:12:00 Z

Most Bought and Sold Stocks Last Week

Clients were active in US tech companies again, selling out positions in Tesla while loading up on Microsoft and Oracle.

Tesla was the most actively traded as clients were net sellers of the EV maker, while strength in Intel was apparently used to exit positions in the chipmaker.

In its place AI leaders Oracle, Microsoft and Amazon were the most actively bought shares on the platform.

Nvidia and Alphabet were also popular as clients continued to lean into the US tech story.

Clients loaded up on BitMine Immersion Technologies, a Bitcoin mining company that has become one of the most popular stocks among retail investors. It’s one of the bitcoin treasury stocks that I looked at last week. In the same space is Strategy, which clients also bought.

Quantum computing names Rigetti and IonQ were among the most bought stocks last week.

Rigetti Computing jumped 50% last week after it landed a new contract with the Air Force Research Lab.

IonQ joined Honeywell as part of a Department of Energy collaboration to explore quantum use cases in space. IonQ also said it plans to acquire Vector Atomic to boost its presence in the quantum sector.

Finally, Oklo shares were popular after the stock extended its rally on news of a nuclear energy collaboration between the US and UK.

Check out last month's most popular shares.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities UKMustRead

The Week Ahead: PMIs, US inflation in focus post Fed, Trump kicks off 80th UN General Assembly

Fri, 19 Sep 2025 09:10:00 Z

US inflation data will be key to whether the Fed cuts again this year.

Your guide to the trading week ahead covering 22-26 September

With the slew of central bank decisions in the rear-view mirror – notably the Fed’s first cut since late last year – the focus this week returns to some economic data.

US inflation data is likely to be the main event on the calendar as markets try to work out whether the Fed was too swift to loosen policy. Will rising price pressures necessitate a more careful approach to cutting interest rates than currently implied by the market? Or will we see signs of cooling, opening the door to further rate cuts this year?

Elsewhere, flash PMIs will be of note, while we’ll also be watching revised US GDP numbers, consumer confidence data for the US and Europe, as well as US home sales, durable goods orders and inventories.

In New York, the 80th UN General Assembly kicks off with an address from Donald Trump. The debate runs through to 29, September.

Monday, 22 September

China’s benchmark lending rates could be tweaked early in the session but otherwise it’s a slow day for economic data. Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey, fresh from a rate decision last week and tweak to gilt sales, is due to talk in the evening on culture risk governance and regulation.

Tuesday, 23 September

PMI day comes – flash manufacturing and services survey data comes first from the Eurozone before the UK and US reports. For the UK. It's an interesting setup as manufacturing slipped while services activity is improving despite the fall-off in the labour market – signs of an AI-inspired productivity boost?

The S&P Global UK Services PMI climbed to 53.6 in August 2025 from 51.8 in July, while the manufacturing PMI decreased to 47.3 in August from 48 points in July. Meanwhile the US report showed faster growth and hiring – so why did the Fed cut rates?

The OECD releases its Interim Economic Outlook Report for the global economy.

Micron is due to report earnings after notching a series of record highs in recent sessions.

Wednesday, 24 September

Australia’s CPI inflation report kicks off the Asian session before Japan’s core CPI report. Germany’s Ifo business climate report is about the only report of interest in the European session. For the US, new home sales and crude oil inventories are on the docket.

Thursday, 25 September

The Swiss National Bank is expected to leave rates unchanged at its policy meeting. The SNB sees a high bar to reintroduce negative interest rates, chairman Martin Schlegel said earlier this month. The central bank in June cut rates to zero to combat persistently low inflation.

A slate of US data is also due to be released, including the final Q2 GDP reading and durable goods orders. The major focus is likely to be on the weekly unemployment claims report for a fast-moving snapshot of the US labour market. Then we hear from a slew of Fed officials, with at least five members of the FOMC slated to speak.

The BOJ releases minutes from its July meeting, whilst Japan’s 40-year government bond auction will be closely watched by JPY traders following signs of weak demand at recent JGB sales.

On the earnings front, Costco reports amid tariff pressures. BP presents its annual energy outlook with long-term forecasts to 2050.

Friday, 26 September

The highlight of the week is the US core PCE inflation report – the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation. The index showed that core inflation ran at a 2.9% annual rate in July, meeting estimates but higher than the 2.7% June. Core PCE rose 0.3% on the month, in line with expectations. Consumer spending increased 0.5% on the month. The report comes after the Fed last week cut rates despite forecasting higher inflation over the coming years. A slower pace of inflation is likely needed to cement expectations for further cuts this year. Ahead of this is the Tokyo core CPI inflatio, while the UoM consumer sentiment index and inflation expectations is after.

Check the calendar for all upcoming events.

Check out last month's most popular shares.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer UK 100

What Stocks are Saxo Clients Buying and Selling – 16 September

Tue, 16 Sep 2025 08:22:00 Z

Most Bought and Sold Stocks Last Week

It's hard to escape the pull of US tech stocks – at least that is the view from the frontline as investors continued to snap up some of the most popular names on the street.

Nvidia and Tesla were the most actively traded stocks – but clients were only just net buyers of TSLA and were net sellers of NVDA.

Clients on the Saxo UK platform were also net sellers of Palantir, selling into strength as the stock rallied last week.

Buying momentum was strongest in old-school tech names Microsoft and Oracle, the latter posting a big earnings update that saw the stock price soar.

Among some of the more speculative names, Opendoor Technologies and Nebius were two of the most actively bought stocks.

There was also strong buying of Apple and Amazon last week.

We noted significant position changes in BitMine Immersion Technologies and Broadcom.

In the fund space, the VanEck Gold Miners UCITS ETF was actively purchased.

Check out last month's most popular shares.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities UKMustRead

The Week Ahead: Federal Reserve Expected to Cut Rates as Trump Visits UK

Fri, 12 Sep 2025 09:47:00 Z

All eyes are on the Fed as markets expect it to turn dovish.

Your guide to the trading week ahead covering 15-19 September

The Federal Reserve headlines a monster week for G4 global banks with the Bank of England and Bank of Japan all due to meet in the wake of the ECB’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged. Stagflation is the name of the game as CB try to balance trade-offs between inflation and growth.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump and wife Melania come to the UK for an unprecedented second full state visit.

Stock markets come into the week after hitting fresh record highs, whilst gold also has hit all-time highs. And after a wobble bond markets are looking more orderly again with yields down from their peaks – so these central bank decisions are going to be crucial to sustaining the narrative that is underpinning risk appetite.

Here’s a look at some of the key events in the coming days

Fed set to cut

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25bps on Wednesday as it seeks to resume the journey to neutral to support a deteriorating labour market, despite warming inflation pressures.

Under huge pressure from the Trump administration, the market believes that softer economic data and specifically weak jobs numbers mean a cut is a done deal, with two more expected this year. While inflation has picked up due to tariffs, economic activity and employment is slowing – risks have skewed to the downside.

The question is whether the market is too complacent about the Fed’s dovish pivot. True, the labour market has worsened sharply, as seen by the recent nonfarm payrolls reports. But it should be noted that the June summary of economic projections showed policymakers expected an easing in employment conditions. Moreover, inflation has picked up some more, with the August CPI print rising to 2.9% from 2.7%, moving further away from the Fed’s target. And faced with unrelenting assaults on his person by Trump, chair Powell may just be inclined to stand pat.

All that said, it seems this meeting is the pivotal moment of the year, when the employment side of the Fed’s dual mandate takes priority over the inflation side.

You can find a full preview of the FOMC meeting here.

Bank of England to hold

The Bank of England is also in a tricky spot as employment weakens but inflation remains higher and more persistent. Having cut in August it’s in no rush to do so again and expected to leave rates unchanged on Thursday, preferring to wait and see on the incoming data and what happens with the Budget. With the chancellor pushing the date for the fiscal event out to November 26th, many now think the next possible cut by the BoE cannot come until the December meeting, slightly stretching out the cadence of roughly quarterly rate cuts that’s widely expected.

Ahead of the BoE meeting the UK’s CPI inflation report will be watched closely and could move sterling. CPI rose to 3.8% in July from 3.6% in June, above forecasts. This upwards pressure on prices has dented hopes for the BoE to move more swiftly to cut rates. Moreover, signs of a pick-up in growth, with the August PMI signalling the fastest expansion in growth in a year despite persistent jobs cuts, has further pushed back market expectations. However, there is a lot of data between now and the 6 November MPC meeting that could mean the BoE does cut again before the Budget.

A complicating factor for the BoE is the rise in debt interest costs. Gilt yields have hit 27-year highs since the August meeting and a Budget of great importance looms. The question for gilts and sterling is less about the immediate policy decision but whether the Bank continues with its quantitative tightening programme. I looked at this in the Long View earlier this month. It ought to be something it is actively looking at, but we might need to wait until December for any real shift. I would stick to my view stated over the last couple of meetings that the BoE is likely to move more slowly but ultimately cut deeper.

Bank of Japan to tee up hike

The Bank of Japan likely won’t move at this meeting but could well pre-commit to tightening. Core consumer price inflation has fallen from a peak in May at 3.7% to 3.1%, while GDP growth has accelerated to 2.2% in Q2 thanks to strong private consumption and capital spending. The next national core CPI report is due out Friday alongside the BoJ decision. The impact of US tariffs on its export-dependent economy remains uncertain, but it looks like the stars are aligning for the BoJ to tee up a hike later this year.

Trump State Visit

Donald Trump will arrive on Tuesday, 16 September for the start of an unprecedented second state visit to the UK. It’s unlikely to be massively market-moving, but equally is hardly going to be unnoticed either. Of note, we are expecting an announcement from Nvidia and OpenAI on a major AI infrastructure investment deal in the UK to coincide with the visit. There is always the possibility of an announcement related to UK-US trade.

Check out last month's most popular shares.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer UK 100

Trader Shorts: BAE Systems - spent force or time to reload?

Thu, 11 Sep 2025 07:58:00 Z

BAE Systems shares rose sharply on Thursday as investors seemed to like recent news from the UK defence contractor. Shares rose 4% to take its YTD gains to around 65%, though they remain off the highs hit earlier in the summer.

The company said it will aim to build one warship a year within two years, reducing the current amount of time required to build each vessel by six months.

It comes after a batch of good news from the company. In July it raised its profit outlook on the back of increased defence spending, posting £13.2bn in new orders in the first half of the year.

In late August it received a big boost as the UK secured its largest ever warship contract - a £10bn deal to supply Norway with Type-26 frigates that will be primarily built by BAE Systems in Glasgow.

It's also been reported that Sweden and Denmark are in advanced talks with the UK to build warships, to be built at fellow defence contractor Babcock's Rosyth docks. Shares of Babcock have risen 16% in the last month and are up 121% YTD.

Meanwhile, BAE Systems has also stated this week its aim to bring an autonomous submarine to market by 2026.

I looked at the UK defence sector here.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer UK 100

Trader Shorts: Apple set to introduce iPhone 17 series - pricing structure seen as key

Tue, 09 Sep 2025 11:09:00 Z

Apple is set to introduce its iPhone 17 series at its launch event Cupertino, California today.

It will release the latest version of iOS, which is to be iOS 26, featuring the Liquid Glass visual redesign, the biggest change of its kind in a decade.

The key focus among investors is going to be the pricing structure of the new series of devices as Apple contends with higher costs related to tariffs.

One option could see Apple ditch its 128GB iPhone Pro, which retails for $999 in the US, encouraging customers to pay more for an entry-level iPhone 17 Pro.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer UK 100