Saxo News & Research - Articles

Quantum stocks are soaring yet again – here's why

Thu, 21 May 2026 13:03:00 Z

Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.

Key Points

Quantum stocks have soared after the US government announced equity stakes in nine companies
IBM is the big gainer, receiving $1bn to build an American quantum chip foundry
Pureplay quantum stocks rose across the board but not all were recipients

Quantum computing stocks soared on Thursday after the White House said it will take equity stakes worth a total of $2bn in several different companies operating in the frontier market.

Shares of IBM and GlobalFoundries were among those to jump after the Commerce Department said it had signed letters of intent with nine firms in the quantum computing space. IBM is set to $1bn while GlobalFoundries will receive $375mn. IBM's investment is designed to build an American quantum chip foundry, which the firm said would secure the nation’s global quantum leadership and fuel the country’s growing quantum ecosystem.

Pureplay quantum names were also among the recipients of the investment with D-Wave Quantum up more than 22%. Rigetti Computing, which is set to receive $100mn, jumped over 23%. Among other pureplay names IonQ rallied 10% despite being notably absent from the list of nine companies, while Quantum Computing rose 15%. Other recipients of $100mn included PsiQuantum, Atom Computing, Infleqtion and Quantinuum. Startup Diraq will receive $38mn.

“With today’s CHIPS Research and Development investments in quantum computing, the Trump administration is leading the world into a new era of American innovation,” said Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick. “These strategic quantum technology investments will build on our domestic industry, creating thousands of high-paying American jobs while advancing American quantum capabilities.”

It's the latest move by the Trump administration to take equity stakes in areas it deems important to both the US economy and national security. Last year the Commerce Department took a 10% stake in Intel – the stock has risen approximately 400% since the investment was announced on 22 Aug 2025. The White House also took stakes in rare earths miners MP Materials and USA Rare Earth last year - both of which have seen their stock price rise sharply since - to boost US production and reduce reliance on China.

The quantum computing market is expected to surpass $11 billion in 2030, according to analyst firm Resonance. Whilst there is clearly a market for this technology, these stocks have gravely disappointed investors in the past and shares remain extremely volatile with the technology seen as a long way off commercialisation.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities United Kingdom Highlighted articles UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer FR US Actualites et Analyses Trump Version 2 - Investors Volatility investor TagFeed En hurtig tanke

Investor Insights: Finding the right recipe for Nvidia's AI Five-Layer Cake

Thu, 21 May 2026 12:13:00 Z

Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.

Key Points

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang talked up the AI ecosystem sprawling across five key themes
Here's a quick at-a-glance guide to what he means and some of the stocks and ETFs within each area

Chips with everything? When Jensen Huang talks about the AI industry as a “five-layer cake”, he’s describing how the modern AI ecosystem is stacking up — from the electricity powering data centres at the bottom, all the way to AI applications used by consumers and businesses at the top.

The key point for investors: AI is no longer just about semiconductor winners. The opportunity set is broadening across the entire stack. The cake is not fully baked yet but the appetite from investors is insatiable.

Here’s a simple breakdown of the five layers, what they mean, and which companies and ETFs are best aligned with each part of the AI value chain.

1. Energy: The Foundation of AI

AI models require enormous computing power — and therefore enormous electricity demand. Training large language models and running inference workloads is becoming one of the biggest power consumption stories in modern markets.

This is why utilities, nuclear, grid infrastructure and power equipment companies have suddenly become AI plays.

What matters here

Electricity generation

Grid upgrades

Cooling systems

Nuclear and gas baseload power

Energy infrastructure for hyperscale data centres

Stocks exposed to this layer

Constellation Energy — nuclear generation leveraged to AI power demand

Vistra Corp — power demand and merchant electricity pricing

Schneider Electric — data-centre electrical systems

Siemens Energy — grid and transmission infrastructure

GE Vernova — gas turbines and grid infrastructure

ETF idea

Global X Uranium UCITS ETF — indirect play on nuclear-powered AI electricity demand

Alternative broad exposure: iShares Global Clean Energy UCITS ETF

2. Infrastructure: Data Centres & Networking

This is the “picks and shovels” layer of AI. Before AI can function, companies need massive data centres, fibre networks, cooling systems and high-speed connectivity.

This has become one of the fastest-growing capex booms in decades.

What matters here

Hyperscale data centres

Networking equipment

Cloud infrastructure

Optical connectivity

Cooling systems

Stocks exposed to this layer

Equinix — premium hyperscale data-centre exposure

Digital Realty

Arista Networks — AI networking backbone

Vertiv Holdings

Broadcom — networking plus custom AI chips

ETF idea

UCITS alternative: L&G ROBO Global Robotics and Automation UCITS ETF

3. Chips: The AI Compute Arms Race

This is the layer most investors associate with AI today. GPUs and accelerators are the engines powering model training and inference.

NVIDIA dominates this layer, but competition is increasing rapidly.

What matters here

GPUs

AI accelerators

Memory chips

Semiconductor manufacturing

AI servers

Stocks exposed to this layer

NVIDIA — dominant AI GPU supplier

Advanced Micro Devices — emerging AI accelerator challenger

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company — manufactures advanced AI chips

SK Hynix — leader in high-bandwidth memory

ASML — critical lithography supplier

ETF idea

VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF

iShares Semiconductor ETF

4. Models: The AI Brains

This layer refers to the companies building the actual AI models — the foundational software systems trained on enormous datasets.

These firms control the intelligence layer and increasingly compete on reasoning, multimodal capabilities and agentic AI.

What matters here

Frontier AI models

AI platforms

Cloud AI ecosystems

Enterprise AI integration

Model distribution

Stocks exposed to this layer

Microsoft — OpenAI partnership and enterprise AI integration

Alphabet — Gemini ecosystem and AI search

Amazon — AWS AI infrastructure and models

Meta Platforms — open-source Llama ecosystem

Baidu — China AI model exposure

ETF idea

WisdomTree Artificial Intelligence UCITS ETF

Global X Artificial Intelligence ETF

5. Applications: Where AI Meets the Real Economy

This is likely where the biggest long-term economic value ultimately accrues.

Applications are the businesses using AI to improve productivity, automate work, personalise services or create entirely new products. This is also potentially the broadest and most underappreciated layer.

What matters here

AI software copilots

Automation

AI-enabled healthcare

Cybersecurity

Customer service and enterprise tools

Stocks exposed to this layer

Salesforce — enterprise AI agents

Adobe — generative AI for creators

ServiceNow — workflow automation

Palantir Technologies — AI operating systems for enterprises and governments

CrowdStrike — AI-driven cybersecurity

ETF idea

iShares Automation & Robotics UCITS ETF

Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF

The Bigger Investor Takeaway

Huang’s “five-layer cake” framework matters because it suggests the AI trade is broadening beyond a handful of mega-cap semiconductor names. The first phase of the AI boom was dominated by chips. The next phase could increasingly shift toward:

electricity providers,

infrastructure builders,

enterprise software companies,

and eventually the businesses that successfully apply AI to boost productivity and profits.

In other words, the AI economy is evolving from a narrow hardware story into a full industrial ecosystem. For investors, the challenge now is not whether AI matters — but deciding which layer of the cake offers the best risk-reward from here.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities United Kingdom Highlighted articles UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer FR US Actualites et Analyses Trump Version 2 - Investors Volatility investor TagFeed En hurtig tanke

Nvidia earnings a damp squib as something else is blotting out the sun.

Thu, 21 May 2026 11:33:00 Z

The biggest IPO ever is more than a small distraction.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.

Questions and comments, please!

We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.

This content is marketing material and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.

The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

Options Brief – Nvidia beats, KOSPI surges – 21 May 2026

Thu, 21 May 2026 09:39:00 Z

The options market priced a $355 billion swing on Nvidia last night. The results were strong - revenue beat, EPS beat, guidance beat. The stock still went down after hours. That gap between what was priced and what delivered is exactly what options traders need to understand before the next big earnings print. Meanwhile, South Korea’s KOSPI surged 8% in a single session ...

Options Brief – Nvidia beats, KOSPI surges – 21 May 2026

A solid beat, a sliding stock, and an 8% surge in Seoul – the options market told the story before the close.

US equities closed out a three-day run of losses on Wednesday as US-Iran de-escalation signals eased Treasury yield pressure and investors positioned ahead of Nvidia’s closely-watched quarterly earnings. Nvidia reported after the bell, delivering strong numbers on every line, but the after-hours reaction did not match the magnitude the options market had priced in – a post-earnings implied volatility crush that was visible in the data well before the print landed.

Headline driver

US equities closed out a three-day run of losses on Wednesday as US-Iran de-escalation signals eased the Treasury yield pressure that had dragged markets lower since Monday. Nvidia reported after the bell: revenue of $81.6 billion and EPS of $1.87, clearing consensus of $78 billion and $1.76 – strong numbers by any measure, but the after-hours reaction was not the blowout the options market had priced in. The stock declined despite beating on every major line, consistent with the sell-the-news pattern it has shown in three of its last four earnings cycles.

Market snapshot

The S&P 500 closed up 1.08% at 7,432.97, the Nasdaq 100 added 1.66% to 29,297.70, and the Russell 2000 outperformed at +2.56% as 10-year Treasury yields retreated from the near-year highs set earlier in the week. The standout was the KOSPI, South Korea’s benchmark equity index, which surged 8.11% to 7,793.72 – a move driven almost entirely by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which together make up roughly 42% of the index and supply the high-bandwidth memory chips that sit at the centre of Nvidia’s AI infrastructure.

Market regime: Low vol bull – VIX 17.44, 20-day realised vol 10.8% (decreasing), S&P 500 +6.82% above its 50-day moving average.

Options angle

The VIX closed at 17.44, down 3.43%, holding below 18 and confirming the low-fear tone of the session. More notable was the one-day VIX (VIX1D) – the CBOE’s gauge of the expected overnight move for a single session – which spiked 21.88% to 16.21 ahead of Nvidia’s release. That reading will collapse at Thursday’s open now that the event has passed, releasing a significant amount of single-name implied vol. The CBOE S&P 500 put/call ratio (PCSX), which measures how much protective put trading is occurring relative to bullish call activity, fell 18.70% to 1.00, and the equity-only put/call ratio (PCC) dropped 14.86% to 0.711. Together those readings show investors rotating aggressively into calls on a day the market was already up over 1%, with Nvidia as the clear focal point. Call volumes have been elevated for several weeks; with market makers carrying significant short-gamma exposure – buying as prices rise and selling as they fall, amplifying moves in both directions – the combination of a large post-earnings repricing and upcoming month-end positioning makes the next few sessions a structural watch point for a potential de-hedging unwind. Despite all of this, the CBOE SKEW index, which measures the premium investors pay for out-of-the-money downside protection relative to equivalent upside, sits at 132.31. That is well above the historical norm, even after a 2.35% decline on the day. Tail-risk demand has not gone away.

Strategy insight – The Nvidia IV crush: why a solid beat can still cost you. Options markets priced a 6.5% post-earnings move for Nvidia, with a potential $355 billion market cap swing implied by the options chain. The company beat on revenue, EPS, and Q2 guidance of $91 billion – yet the stock declined after-hours. For holders of long straddles or strangles purchased ahead of the print, this is the IV crush in real time: implied volatility collapses once the event uncertainty is resolved, and that vega loss can fully offset any directional gain from the actual stock move. Pre-earnings premium already embeds the expected magnitude of the move, and the trade only works when the actual outcome exceeds that implied range.
The main risk in pre-earnings long options positions is not being wrong on direction – it is paying more for the implied move than the stock actually delivers.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.

Strategy insight – KOSPI rally, Samsung strike, and the case for put spreads. The KOSPI’s 8% single-day surge prices in a direct line from Nvidia’s AI chip demand to Samsung and SK Hynix’s high-bandwidth memory output – but a 45,000-worker Samsung labor strike begins on 21 May, introducing a supply-side risk that the session’s euphoria has not priced in. The VVIX, the CBOE’s measure of the volatility of the VIX itself, sits at 96.45, while realised vol remains at 10.8% and options premiums stay broadly affordable. For traders holding AI semiconductor exposure after a day like this, a put spread delivers targeted downside protection at a fraction of outright put cost: buying a put at a strike near current levels while selling a lower put to offset part of the premium. With SKEW at 132, puts are relatively expensive compared to calls – which is precisely why the spread structure matters here, as selling the lower strike reduces the net cost meaningfully.
The maximum loss is the net premium paid, making the insurance cost predictable regardless of how the strike situation develops.

Conclusion

The session’s message is fairly clear: investors bought first and asked questions later, with the Nvidia print serving as the focal point for a day of broad risk-on positioning. The after-hours stock reaction – down despite a beat on every major line – is a reminder that consensus expectations and whisper numbers are two different things, and that options premium reflects the latter. Heading into Thursday, the VIX1D collapse and put/call rotation will set the early tone, while the Samsung strike and any Nvidia post-earnings analyst revisions are the two most concrete catalysts worth monitoring. The regime is still low vol bull, but the term structure disagrees: front-month VIX futures are trading at 19.90 against a spot VIX of 17.44, and SKEW at 132 is not the signature of a market that has fully stopped worrying.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.

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Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Options Thought Starters Investing with options Highlighted articles Listed Options Income investor – Options What are your options Learn about options Options education Getting Started with Options En hurtig tanke

Oil takes control of markets as diplomacy headlines collide with tightening supply

Thu, 21 May 2026 08:00:00 Z

Key points:

Crude continues to drive broader market risk appetite through its impact on inflation expectations, bond yields and the US dollar.
Trump’s alternating diplomatic and confrontational rhetoric has pushed oil prices lower without materially improving the outlook for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Physical market indicators continue to tighten despite recent futures weakness.
Gold’s elevated inverse correlation to crude, yields and the dollar highlights oil’s current strong influence across asset classes.

Oil continues to exert an influence well beyond the energy market itself. More than any other asset currently, crude prices are shaping broader market sentiment through their impact on inflation expectations, central bank thinking, sovereign bond yields and the US dollar. In the current environment, oil has effectively become the market’s main transmission mechanism.

Cross-asset performance increasingly reflects this dynamic. Gold, despite persistent geopolitical uncertainty, has struggled to establish a sustained bid. Higher oil prices raise concerns about inflation persistence, lifting bond yields and the dollar while creating a less supportive environment for non-yielding assets. We are currently seeing an elevated inverse correlation between gold on one hand and oil, bond yields and the dollar on the other. Until that relationship changes, crude is likely to remain the dominant macro driver across markets.

Recent price action again highlighted the market’s sensitivity to political rhetoric. Oil moved sharply lower after Trump stated that the US was in the “final stages” of talks with Iran, raising hopes that some form of diplomatic breakthrough could eventually ease supply disruptions. Those hopes faded after subsequent comments warning that “there’s more fighting to come unless Iran gets smart.”

Markets increasingly appear trapped between these alternating signals. The result has been substantial price volatility without delivering the one development that ultimately matters: a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a normalization of regional energy flows.

At the same time, market focus increasingly appears to be shifting away from missiles and towards logistics and storage. Data from Kpler show that since mid-April no tanker carrying Iranian crude has crossed the blockade line, while crude loadings have collapsed from around 2.1 million barrels per day before the disruption to just 640 thousand barrels per day currently. Floating storage within the Gulf has meanwhile surged from around 23 million to 42 million barrels, with another 15 million barrels accumulating onshore. These growing inventories represent barrels trapped rather than removed, a pressure point the US administration hopes may eventually force Iran back to negotiations.

Some tentative signs of movement have nevertheless emerged. Limited tanker traffic from China and South Korea has recently resumed, while India is preparing to restart cargo liftings from Middle Eastern suppliers. However, these volumes remain a fraction of normal levels and do not yet indicate meaningful normalization.

The latest EIA weekly petroleum report added to evidence of continued physical tightness. Total US crude inventories fell by a record 17.8 million barrels, although almost 10 million barrels of that decline reflected a Strategic Petroleum Reserve release. Commercial crude inventories nevertheless declined by a sizeable 7.9 million barrels, while stocks at Cushing fell for a fourth consecutive week.

Imports increased, supported by Venezuelan barrels reaching the highest level since 2018, but this was largely offset by another rise in exports as international demand continued to pull US light sweet crude into global markets. Distillate inventories posted a modest increase but remain near the lowest seasonal levels in more than two decades, reinforcing signs of persistent tightness in middle distillates.

Meanwhile Goldman Sachs estimates visible global crude and product inventories are declining at a record pace, with stockpiles falling by 8.7 million barrels per day so far this month.

For now, futures prices may continue reacting to diplomacy headlines and shifting political rhetoric. However, unless those headlines translate into a meaningful increase in physical flows, price weakness risks remaining driven more by expectations than by fundamentals. Futures trade on headlines; physical markets continue to trade on barrels.

While Brent remains rangebound, both diesel and jet fuel prices have eased - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

EIA data showing crude and product draws and surging exports - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

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Educational resources:
A short guide to trading crude oil
The basics of trading wheat online
A short guide to trading gold
A short guide to trading copper
A short guide to trading silver
Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?

Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

More from the author
Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on Twitter and BlueSky social media platforms

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Commodities Iran USA Inflation Crude Oil Oil

London Quick Take - Thursday - Markets pin hopes on US-Iran talks to cool bond rout, while stocks advance as AI trade bounces post Nvidia

Thu, 21 May 2026 06:27:00 Z

Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.

TL/DR. AI optimism: Nikkei 225 +3%, Kospi +8%, following gains on Wall Street and Nvidia’s earnings beat. Broad based rally for stocks yesterday as bond yields lowered as oil dropped...crude prices the key to the entire correlation of yields and USD in this macro setup so all eyes on the Strait. Key question: can the market swallow all these monster IPOs?

Nvidia earnings beat for the 14th time in a row but shares retreated a touch in after-hours trading. Revenues +85% and data centre sales +92% to $75.2bn, plus hiked dividend and $80 in share buybacks. Seems to largely answered concerns without moving the needle any further forward and shares were likely down on remarks from CEO Jensen Huang, who said the company has “largely conceded” China’s AI chip market to Huawei.

Huang also spoke of the AI industry’s “five-layer cake” of energy, chips, infrastructure, models and applications. And indeed the biggest positive reaction was in the supply chain – SoftBank jumped 20% (although this may be largely off the back of the +15% rally in Arm Holdings yesterday...the point is it’s all part of the layer cake), while TSMC, SK Hynix and Renesas Electronics all made gains overnight, whilst Samsung Electronics jumped after an eleventh-hour suspension of a worker strike.

Brent crude prices stabilised around the $106-$107 area after dropping sharply yesterday afternoon on tentative signs of progress towards a deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. We had flashes that work was underway to put the finishing touches on the text of an agreement between Washington and Tehran, whilst President Trump said the US was in the “final stages” of talks...but reiterated that the US could resume attacks if things don’t go as he likes. “We'll either have a deal or we're going to do some things that are a little bit nasty," he said. "But hopefully that won't happen." It still looks like the carrot and stick approach which has so far not done much to move things along. Meanwhile Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir will travel to Tehran today for negotiations, Reuters reported citing the ISNA news agency...all kinds of rumours flying around we will take everything with a good fistful of salt. More on oil and how it's in the driving seat for macro from Ole here.

As long as the Strait is shut, inflation is the main concern in markets and for central banks. Sources said the European Central Bank is close to a June rate hike with energy-driven inflation near 3%, but are less certain about July...policymakers see scope to hike next month and pause to reassess in September, a somewhat more dovish outlook than the market is implying right now with multiple rate hikes priced in. Meanwhile Fed minutes showed the vote to maintain an easing bias at the last meeting was close - the market has been telling the Fed to shift more hawkish and the minutes flagged a possible hike this year should inflation remain elevated...Cleveland Fed nowcasting 7.04% Q2 quarterly annualised CPI.

There was a broad feeling of optimism yesterday - European equities advanced for a third day, with the Stoxx Europe 600 up 1.5% to 620.29, the FTSE 100 rising 1.0%, the DAX gaining 1.4%, and the CAC 40 climbing 1.7%. the AI optimism permeating the US and Asian markets didn’t fully extend to Thursday morning’s open in Europe with a more muted opening but Paris and Frankfurt have turned higher while London is a little slow to catch on with some earnings dragging. The FTSE 100 declined around –0.5% to track back below 10,400 before paring losses to trade -0.1% as of send time, having yesterday risen to its best in two weeks. Lots of results this morning looking positive but being punished, with Sage, Autotrader and ConvaTec leading the decliners.

BT posted solid numbers allowing it to improve its dividend policy and restate higher cash generation targets. Pre-tax profits rose 8% to £1.43bn but EBITDA was flat as revenues slipped 3% on the product mix. Traditional voice and international not so hot but the fibre rollout is going very well: Record FTTP build of 4.8m premises passed the accelerated target set last year ...Openreach FTTP with 2.2m net adds in the year; total premises connected total 8.8m, bringing take-up rate amongst all major fibre providers to over 38%. Openreach broadband line losses were 203k in Q4, giving full year losses of 825k, slightly better than 850k guidance. The retail FTTP base grew by 31% year-on-year to 4.5mn. Shares have rerated significantly with BT hitting a 7-year high recently.

Smiths Group reported flat organic revenues in the third quarter, leading to +0.2% growth for the nine-month period, blamed on disruption to global energy markets and a subdued US construction market.

Metlen Energy said it expects to achieve record turnover in 2026, with EBITDA fully recovering to a range of €1.0bn-€1.15bn for the full year.

Autotrader revenue growth for the full year came in at +4%, but declining to +3% in H2 and even lower in the final quarter, with the deceleration blamed on “difficult trading conditions”.

Sage – the accountancy software group – reported revenues +10% and pre-tax profits +11% higher and raised its full-year organic total revenue growth target to above 9%

EasyJet – raising ticket prices to offset higher fuel costs, forward bookings behind the curve, down –2% on last year due to Iran war but sees “positive late bookings”. The first half loss was a not insignificant £553mn and the outlook is extremely cloudy. But revenue growth was strong.

Finally, Tesla rallied 3% to close above its 200-day SMA.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities United Kingdom Highlighted articles UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer FR US Actualites et Analyses Trump Version 2 - Investors Volatility investor TagFeed En hurtig tanke

Market Quick Take - 21 May 2026

Thu, 21 May 2026 06:19:00 Z

Market Quick Take – 21 May 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

Equities: US and Europe rallied on easing oil stress, while Asia lagged before Nvidia reignited the chip trade.
Volatility: VIX falls, Nvidia supports AI sentiment, KOSPI jumps 8%, bond yields elevated
Digital Assets: Bitcoin stabilises near USD 77k, IBIT and ETHA rebound despite ETF outflows, miners outperform
Fixed Income: Global yields punched lower on big drop in crude oil prices
Currencies: USD eases off recent highs amidst low volatility, AUD lower on weak April employment data
Commodities: Oil tumbles, gold rebounds as Trump once again raises hopes for Iran deal
Macro events: Eurozone and US preliminary PMIs for May

Macro headlines

Oil fell, easing inflation and rate hike fears, helping bonds and stocks rebound, on renewed optimism over a US–Iran peace deal, after Trump said talks are in their “final stages” and the Strait of Hormuz may soon reopen.
Fed minutes still flagged a possible rate hike this year if inflation stays above 2%, leaving markets divided on whether the Fed will move by December.
Australia April Employment data was far softer than expected, with a -18k drop in Employment vs. +15k expected and a sharp rise in the Unemployment Rate to 4.5% versus 4.3% expected and 4.3% in March.
Australia’s composite PMI fell to 47.8 in May from 50.4, signaling renewed contraction as both services and manufacturing weakened amid the Middle East conflict. New orders dropped at the fastest pace since September 2021, and employment fell for the first time in 18 months, with the sharpest job losses in nearly six years. Input costs rose sharply on higher fuel, raw materials, and transport, while business confidence hit a record low on rising costs, rate-hike risks, and tough market conditions.
The average US 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose 10 bps to 6.56% in the week ending May 15, 2026, the highest in seven weeks, per the MBA. Rates climbed for a fourth straight week on higher Treasury yields amid inflation and debt concerns. Total mortgage applications fell 2.3%, with purchase applications down 4.1% and refis down 0.1%, pushing overall activity to a five-week low.
Japan's April exports rose 14.8% year-over-year, beating the estimated 9.2% increase, with exports to the US up 9.5% and exports to the EU rising 26.9%.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0800 – Eurozone May Manufacturing and Services PMI
1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
1230 – April Housing Starts
1345 – US May Manufacturing and Services PMI
1400 – Eurozone May Consumer Confidence
1430 – EIA’s Weekly Natural Gas Storage Change
1700 – US to sell USD 19 billion 10-year TIPS

Earnings events

Wednesday (yesterday): Nvidia, Analog Devices, TJX Companies, Lowe’s, Intuit, Tokio Marine Holdings, Target, Hasbro
Thursday (today): Walmart, Deere, Ross Stores, Take-Two, Workday
Friday: Richemont

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 rose 1.1%, the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.7%, and the Dow advanced 1.3% as lower oil prices eased inflation worries and lifted risk appetite. Consumer discretionary led, with cruise and travel names helped by lower fuel-cost pressure, while homebuilders rose after Toll Brothers reported better-than-expected results. Nvidia gained 1.3% in the regular session ahead of earnings, but its strong sales outlook drew a muted after-hours reaction, reminding investors that very high expectations are not easily fed. Markets now watch whether lower oil and resilient artificial intelligence demand can keep the rebound alive.
Europe: European equities advanced for a third day, with the Stoxx Europe 600 up 1.5% to 620.29, the FTSE 100 rising 1.0%, the DAX gaining 1.4%, and the CAC 40 climbing 1.7%. The move was broad, with banks leading gains across sectors, while technology also helped after chip optimism returned. ASML rose 6.7% on stronger semiconductor sentiment, Infineon gained 5.1%, and HSBC helped lift the UK market. Marks & Spencer added 6.6% after profit growth forecasts, despite cyberattack disruption. Europe’s next test is whether earnings can keep carrying the market if yields stay uncomfortable.
Asia: Asian equities fell for a fourth straight session in the latest completed trading day, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index down 0.8% as inflation concerns and higher yields pressured growth-heavy markets. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.6% to 25,651.12, Japan’s benchmark dropped 1.5%, and South Korea weakened for a second day as foreign selling hit technology shares. TSMC and SoftBank were among the main regional drags, while AIA weighed on Hong Kong. The tone changed sharply in early Thursday trade after Nvidia’s results and Samsung’s strike relief, a reminder that Asia’s chip trade can still turn faster than a crowded airport queue.

Volatility

Volatility eased after a strong rebound in global equities, with the VIX closing at 17.44, down 3.4%, as lower oil prices and a partial pullback in Treasury yields helped calm inflation concerns. Nvidia’s earnings beat supported the broader AI theme, although the reaction was more measured than euphoric, suggesting investors still want confirmation that AI-driven growth can continue justifying elevated valuations. The improvement in sentiment spilled into Asia, where South Korea’s KOSPI surged more than 8%, driven by semiconductor and AI-linked optimism after Samsung avoided a strike and investors rotated back into chip exposure.
SPX options pricing currently implies a move of roughly 73 points, or 0.98%, through Friday’s expiry, while today’s expiry alone implies about 57 points, or 0.77%.
Meanwhile, today’s 0DTE SPX options chain still shows a noticeable defensive skew: near the 25-delta area, put implied volatility remains materially higher than call implied volatility, indicating that investors continue paying more for short-term downside protection than upside participation.

Digital Assets

Digital assets are stabilising after a difficult stretch earlier this week, with Bitcoin trading near USD 77,700 and Ether around USD 2,130 as broader market sentiment improves alongside equities and AI-linked assets. The easing in oil prices and recovery in global risk appetite helped crypto sentiment, although investors remain cautious after several sessions of ETF outflows, rising bond yields and renewed concerns that central banks may keep interest rates elevated for longer.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs continued to see net outflows on 20 May, with Farside data showing approximately USD 70.5 million leaving US-listed products, including roughly USD 61.5 million from IBIT alone. Ether ETFs also remained under pressure, with around USD 28.1 million in net outflows led by ETHA, even as both ETFs traded firmer in the latest session. Crypto-linked equities reflected a more constructive tone, with miners such as MARA and CLSK outperforming Bitcoin itself.
Under the surface, options positioning still paints a nuanced picture. Flow data showed investors continuing to buy upside exposure in crypto-related equities such as IREN, CLSK and MSTR, but hedging activity remained elevated through puts in products such as IBIT, ETHA and MSTR. Among major altcoins, Solana, XRP and Dogecoin traded modestly higher, while stablecoin and blockchain-payment adoption themes remained in focus after European banking consortium Qivalis expanded its euro stablecoin initiative to 37 financial institutions.

Commodities

Oil prices are edging higher after plunging on Wednesday when Trump once again signalled that negotiations with Iran were in the “final stages,” raising hopes for a resumption of energy flows from the Persian Gulf. Ahead of those comments, the EIA reported the largest weekly decline on record in US crude inventories. While a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could initially unleash a wave of supply from vessels already loaded and waiting to depart, broader market normalization would likely take months given disrupted logistics, displaced shipping and depleted inventories. Goldman Sachs notes that global crude and refined product inventories are currently being drawn down at a record pace this month.
Gold is holding above USD 4,500 after receiving a boost from a sharp decline in oil prices, which helped ease inflation, rate-hike concerns, and bond yields. Bullion is currently showing unusually elevated inverse correlations with bond yields, the dollar and crude oil, highlighting the reaction function driving current price action. For gold to regain upside momentum and avoid a retest of the important 200-day moving average support at USD 4,365, the market likely needs to see a further easing in oil-driven inflation pressures or renewed evidence that slowing growth risks are beginning to outweigh inflation concerns.
Grains remained under pressure with the BCOM Grains Index falling for a third consecutive session, led by declines in corn and soybeans. The market continued to unwind earlier gains driven by hopes for increased Chinese purchases of US farm goods, with focus shifting back to more immediate fundamentals. Lower oil prices reduced support for biofuel-linked demand expectations, while recent Midwest rainfall improved soil moisture conditions and supported a favorable early outlook for crop development. For now, weather and the scope of any potential Chinese buying remain the key drivers to watch.

Fixed Income

US Treasuries rallied as crude oil prices dropped sharply Wednesday, with the benchmark US 10-year treasury yield reversing the prior day’s yield jump, dropping eight basis points and trading below 4.60% early Thursday. The benchmark 2-year treasury yield likewise reversed course and dropped back as much as eleven basis points at one point before rebounding six basis points to just below 4.07%.
European bonds rallied hard on the fall in crude oil prices, with the German benchmark 2-year Schatz yield dropping over ten basis points to 2.66% and the benchmark 10-year Bund yield dropping nearly ten basis points to 3.10%.
Japan’s short-dated government bond yields steady, longest-dated yield drop. Japan’s government bond yields were steady at the short end of the yield curve and out to the 10-year tenor, but at the longer end of the curve, 30-year and 40-year JGB yields fell 4-5 basis points as the BoJ announced plans to discuss its bond purchase tapering schedule with market participants through Friday.

Currencies

The US dollar eased slightly lower on the sell-off in crude oil but remains near the top of the recent range. The EURUSD move below 1.1600 failed and the price action rebounded toward 1.1625. implied volatility in the options market has moved below 6% in recent days, at the low end of the range of the last 10 years. USDJPY price action is sticky near 159.00 as traders are reluctant to challenge Japan’s Ministry of Finance, which has pushed back against JPY weakness recently, most firmly when the USDJPY price action rallied above 160.00
The Australian dollar rallied and then reversed sharply on weak employment data. On Wednesday, AUDUSD rebounded from fresh local lows below the key 0.7100 area to as high as 0.7174, only to reverse hard to as low as 0.7100 again early Thursday on the release of weak employment and PMI services data (see above) that have lowered expectations of further RBA rate hikes. By early European hours Thursday, AUDUSD rebounded toward 0.7125. In other crosses, the Aussie is also traded weaker, with AUDNZD back near 1.2150 after recently trading north of 1.2200.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

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The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Advanced orders Europe Employment United States United Kingdom European Union (EU) XAUUSD USD EURUSD USDJPY Energy (Sector) Technology S P 500 index Quick Take Weekly Newsletter

Nvidia earnings: artificial intelligence gets its report card

Wed, 20 May 2026 20:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Nvidia delivered another very strong quarter, led by demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure.
Guidance beat expectations, but China and high expectations kept the initial stock reaction restrained.
The bigger investor question is now duration: how long can this spending cycle stay this strong?

Nvidia did not just report earnings on 20 May 2026. It handed investors another progress report on the artificial intelligence buildout.

The numbers were strong. Nvidia reported first-quarter revenue of 81.6 billion USD, up 85% from a year earlier. Data centre revenue, the core of the artificial intelligence story, reached 75.2 billion USD, up 92%. The company guided for second-quarter revenue of ahead of expectations, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The initial after-market reaction was mildly negative, suggesting investors liked the strength but were already looking beyond the headline beat. That may sound harsh. It is also what happens when a company becomes the unofficial scoreboard for one of the largest investment themes in markets. The earnings question is no longer whether demand is real. It is whether demand can stay this strong for long enough to justify the expectations already in the share price.

Strong numbers, stricter teachers

The main result was clear: demand remains powerful.

Revenue grew 20% from the previous quarter and 85% from a year earlier. Adjusted gross margin was 75%, which means Nvidia still keeps a very large share of each sales dollar after direct production costs. That matters because it suggests customers are still paying up for performance, supply and access to Nvidia’s platform.

Nvidia also announced an additional 80 billion USD share repurchase authorisation and raised its quarterly dividend from 0.01 USD to 0.25 USD per share. That will not be the main story for growth investors, but it does show how much cash the artificial intelligence boom is creating.

The market’s restrained initial reaction is therefore less about weak results and more about the bar. Nvidia has become so important that good is not enough. Investors want proof that the cycle extends into 2027 and beyond, that margins can stay high, and that customers are not simply ordering ahead before the next chip transition.

The data centre is now the centre of gravity

Data centres are the large facilities that store, process and move digital information. Artificial intelligence has turned them into industrial assets. They need chips, memory, networking, cooling, power and land. The cloud may sound weightless, but it increasingly looks like a very expensive electricity-hungry factory.

Nvidia’s data centre compute revenue reached 60.4 billion USD, up 77% from a year earlier. Networking revenue was 14.8 billion USD, up an eyepopping 199%. That second number matters because artificial intelligence systems do not rely only on one powerful chip. They rely on many chips working together quickly. Networking is the plumbing. Without it, the palace has no running water.

This is why Nvidia’s results matter beyond Nvidia. A strong data centre update supports the broader artificial intelligence supply chain: chip manufacturers, memory companies, networking specialists, data centre operators, power equipment makers and cloud platforms. It also helps explain why the theme has moved from software excitement to infrastructure reality.

For long-term investors, that shift is important. The artificial intelligence story is no longer just about chatbots and clever demos. It is about capital expenditure, supply chains and returns on invested capital. In plain English: companies are spending vast sums, and investors now need to ask who earns attractive profits from that spending.

China is still the quiet swing factor

Nvidia said its second-quarter outlook does not assume any data centre compute revenue from China. That is a key sentence. It means the guidance beat expectations even without including a contribution from one of the world’s largest technology markets.

That makes the result more impressive, but it also shows where uncertainty remains. Export controls, product restrictions and geopolitical decisions can change Nvidia’s addressable market. Addressable market simply means the revenue opportunity a company can realistically target. For a business this large, even small changes in market access can become very large numbers.

Competition is another factor. Advanced Micro Devices, Broadcom, custom chips from cloud companies and new internal designs all matter. They may not remove Nvidia’s leadership quickly, but they can reduce pricing power over time. The question is not whether Nvidia faces competition. The question is whether its full system, from chips to software and networking, remains hard enough to replace.

Risks to watch

The first risk is expectations. Nvidia can report excellent numbers and still see pressure if investors expected something close to perfect. That is not unfair. It is just what happens when a stock carries a very large share of market confidence.

The second risk is customer spending. The largest cloud companies are investing heavily in artificial intelligence infrastructure. If those companies slow spending, delay orders or struggle to turn artificial intelligence services into revenue, the whole supply chain could feel it.

The third risk is geopolitics. Watch China commentary, export licences and any change in the company’s assumption around China data centre revenue. In this story, policy can move faster than a product roadmap.

Investor playbook

If shares move lower after strong results, compare the move with guidance, margins and China assumptions.
If margins stay around current levels, it suggests Nvidia still has pricing power and customer urgency.
If networking keeps growing faster than compute, it supports the idea that artificial intelligence systems are scaling.
If cloud companies slow capital spending, stress-test the wider artificial intelligence supply chain, not just Nvidia.

The neat ending

Nvidia’s quarter shows that the artificial intelligence buildout remains very real, very large and very profitable for the companies sitting closest to the infrastructure layer. But the market’s first reaction also shows that investors have become harder to impress. That is healthy.

Great companies still need to clear great expectations, and Nvidia’s report is no longer just about one quarter of revenue. It is about the length, profitability and resilience of an entire investment cycle. The lesson for investors is not to guess tomorrow’s share price. It is to understand the machinery behind the story, because the machinery is now the story.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles Theme - Artificial intelligence Artificial Intelligence NVIDIA Corporation Quarterly earnings UKMustRead

Pivotal days for tech and AI stocks, FX and rates

Wed, 20 May 2026 11:03:00 Z

Nvidia bringing pivotal earnings report today after the close.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.

Questions and comments, please!

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

Options Brief - All eyes on NVDA - 20 May 2026

Wed, 20 May 2026 08:44:00 Z

Today’s Options Brief is an NVDA special. Nvidia reports Q1 FY27 after the close, and the options setup is worth a close read before 10pm (Brussels time). The 22 May expiry is priced at 85% implied vol against 45% for June - a 40-point earnings premium that collapses fast once results hit. Meanwhile, Tuesday’s options volume came in at less than ...

Options Brief – All eyes on NVDA – 20 May 2026

Nvidia reports after the close today as the bond market rout deepens and equities register a third consecutive losing session.

The 30-year US Treasury yield briefly touched 5.19% on Tuesday, its highest level since before the 2008 financial crisis, as Iran war-driven inflation and persistent fiscal concerns deepened the ongoing bond market rout. Equities posted a third straight losing session, setting up Wednesday with the macro backdrop still hostile and a single-stock event large enough to overshadow most of it: Nvidia reports fiscal Q1 FY27 results today after the close.

Market snapshot

S&P 500: 7,353.61, –0.67% (third consecutive down session)
Nasdaq 100: 28,818.84, –0.61%
Russell 2000: 2,747.07, –1.01% (small caps underperformed, consistent with rate sensitivity)
30-year Treasury yield: closed at 5.176%, touching 5.19% intraday; 10-year Treasury yield: 4.659%
Gold: 4,462.90, –1.07% (unusual decline in an inflationary shock environment, pointing to broad deleveraging rather than selective hedging)
European indices: mixed to slightly positive (DAX +0.38%, Stoxx 600 +0.19%), diverging from the US rate-driven selloff
Market regime: NEUTRAL / CHOP — VIX 18.06, 20-day realised vol 10.8% (decreasing), S&P 500 +5.88% above its 50-day moving average

Options angle

VIX closed at 18.06 on Tuesday, up 1.35%, sitting at the lower boundary of the 18–25 neutral band. The VVIX (the volatility of the VIX itself, measuring how much the fear gauge is expected to move) rose 3.76% to 94.61. Front-month VIX futures settled at 20.50, in contango at roughly 245 basis points above spot, consistent with a market that is pricing protection rather than panic. The CBOE S&P 500 put/call ratio (PCSX, which measures protective put activity relative to bullish call activity) spiked 14.95% to 1.23, one of the sharpest single-session moves in weeks.

Nvidia’s options picture going into today’s print tells a quieter and more cautious story than the raw positioning numbers suggest. The 22 May weekly, which directly captures the post-earnings window, is pricing a 5.22% expected move ($11.53), placing fair value between $209.08 and $232.14. The implied volatility on that expiry is 85.24%, versus 45.20% for the June 18 monthly expiry, the first clearly non-event expiry. The roughly 40-percentage-point spread reflects the earnings premium concentrated in the event-dated contract. Once results are digested, most of that premium collapses, and the subsequent expiries revert toward the underlying’s normal course volatility.

What’s notable about Tuesday’s session is how subdued the participation was. Total options volume came in at 1,668,149 contracts, less than half the 30-day daily average of 3,744,047. That is the lightest single session in months on the trading day before a major earnings report. The most likely explanation is that the active positioning happened earlier, during the 13–15 May window when daily volumes were running above 5 million contracts. By Tuesday, the crowd appears to have largely stood aside, either already positioned or priced out by elevated short-dated implied volatility. The put/call volume ratio adds a subtle layer: it has drifted steadily from around 0.29–0.36 in early May to 0.48–0.49 over the past two days, suggesting a quiet but consistent accumulation of hedging alongside the dominant call-side positioning. Still call-heavy, but less so than two weeks ago.

The institutional flow from the past two weeks was broadly income-oriented rather than directionally bullish: the call-side was largely sold rather than bought, with upside capping activity concentrated in the 237.50–252.50 zone. Long-dated protective structures were building underneath. The net dealer setup is two-sided, with potential mechanical resistance above the sold-call zone and downside hedging pressure below.

Strategy insight – ATM calendar spread to harvest the IV crush differential. The approximately 40-percentage-point gap between the event expiry (22 May, 85.24% implied vol) and the first post-event monthly (June 18, 45.20% implied vol) makes an ATM calendar spread worth examining: selling a 22 May option at inflated event implied volatility while buying the same strike in a later expiry at the lower underlying vol. Once tonight’s results are absorbed, the short leg collapses far faster than the long leg, and the spread captures that differential. The trade works best when Nvidia stays near the sold strike after the event; the main risk is a large directional move away from the strike, which can cause both legs to lose value simultaneously.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.

Strategy insight – Call diagonal along the institutional resistance zone. A call diagonal extends the calendar idea with a directional element. Selling a 22 May call where call-selling flow has been concentrated, and buying a June expiry call at a lower strike retains long vega in the surviving leg while harvesting elevated event implied volatility on the short. The trade benefits from implied volatility crush on the short leg, has documented supply at the short strike, and keeps upside participation through the long leg if Nvidia gaps higher. The main risk is a sharp gap move through the short strike, which would require active management or closing the position before the short leg moves deep in-the-money.

Conclusion

The bond market is pricing a deteriorating fiscal and inflationary picture that equities have not fully absorbed. Three down sessions have not broken the broader bull, but the combination of a 30-year yield above 5.1%, a 10-year above 4.6%, and an energy shock with no clear resolution in sight is a genuine and growing headwind for equity valuations. Today the question narrows almost entirely to Nvidia. Analysts expect another beat-and-raise, the options market has priced a large event move, and the flow tape from the past two weeks suggests institutions have already positioned for multiple outcomes. What happens at 5pm ET will set the tone for the rest of the week.

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Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Market Quick Take - 20 May 2026

Wed, 20 May 2026 06:28:00 Z

Market Quick Take – 20 May 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

Equities: Equities slipped in the US and Asia as yields rose, while Europe held firmer on company-specific gains.
Volatility: Bond rout, Nvidia earnings, higher yields pressure tech
Digital Assets: Bitcoin stabilises, ETF flows soften
Fixed Income: US treasury yields remain elevated after Tuesday surge. Japan’s yield curve flattens on strong demand for longest dated JGBs.
Currencies: US dollar remains on strong side, Japanese yen trying to keep up with greenback
Commodities: Brent holds above USD 110 as rising yields pressure gold, sugar gains on weather risks and ethanol demand
Macro events: UK Apr. CPI, US FOMC Minutes

Macro headlines

US 30-year yield hits highest since 2007 as investor concerns mount that accelerating inflation will force central bankers to raise interest rates, threatening to slow the US economy and lift borrowing costs for US home buyers and corporations.
Trump warned US strikes on Iran could resume within days if talks with Gulf nations fail, adding to market volatility.
US pending home sales rose 1.4% in April, a third straight gain and above the 1% forecast. Sales were up 3.2% year-over-year, with increases in the Northeast, Midwest, and West. NAR’s Lawrence Yun said buyers are cautiously returning despite higher mortgage rates and warned that without more housing supply, prices could outpace wages and hurt homeownership.
Canada’s headline inflation rose to 2.8% in April from 2.4%, a two-year high but below the 3.1% forecast, mainly on a 19.2% jump in energy that lifted transportation inflation to 7.6%. BoC’s trimmed-mean and median core measures fell to 2.0% and 2.1%, their lowest in five years. Food inflation eased to 3.5%, and shelter edged up to 1.8%.
The UN cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.5%, 0.2 ppts below January’s view and under the estimated 3.0% in 2025, citing inflation from the Middle East conflict. Strong labor markets, resilient demand, and AI-driven trade and investment provide some support, but the outlook stays weak. Energy price gains are boosting producers while pressuring households and firms. The US is seen growing 2.0% in 2026.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

· 0600 – UK Apr. CPI and PPI
· 0600 – Germany Apr. PPI
· 0900 – Eurozone Apr. Final CPI
· 1315 – UK Bank of England Governor Bailey and MPC to testify to lawmakers
· 1430 – EIAs Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report
· 1700 – US Treasury to auction 20-year notes
· 1800 – US FOMC Minutes
· 2300 – Australia Flash May Manufacturing and Services PMI
· 0030 – Japan Flash May Manufacturing and Services PMI
· 0130 – Australia Apr. Employment Data

G-7 finance ministers and central bankers meet in Paris

Earnings events

Tuesday (yesterday): The Home Depot, Keysight Technologies
Wednesday (today): Nvidia, Analog Devices, TJX Companies, Lowe’s, Intuit, Tokio Marine Holdings, Target
Thursday: Walmart, Deere, Ross Stores

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.8%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both lost 0.7% as the 30-year Treasury yield reached its highest level in nearly two decades. Higher yields hit growth stocks and rate-sensitive sectors, with materials, communication services and consumer discretionary leading declines. Alphabet fell 2.3% and weighed heavily on the S&P 500, while Vertiv dropped 5% as investors trimmed exposure to AI infrastructure names. Home Depot rose 0.9% after better first-quarter earnings, helped by 4.8% revenue growth, showing the US consumer is not fully hiding under the sofa yet.
Europe: European equities rose for a second session, with the Stoxx 600 up 0.2% and Germany’s DAX gaining 0.4%, as company news helped offset pressure from higher US yields. SAP rallied 6.0% and led gains, while Evolution jumped 7.3% after approving a €2 billion share buyback. Currys surged 14.5% after raising full-year profit guidance, and IG Group gained 10.5% after beating expectations and lifting its outlook. Mining stocks were weaker as higher yields pressured precious metals, with KGHM down 5.6%. Markets now watch whether earnings momentum can keep cushioning the bond-yield shock.
Asia: Asian equities fell for a third session as uncertainty around an Iran peace deal and higher global bond yields weighed on risk appetite. South Korea led the weakness, with the Kospi down 3.3% and the Kosdaq falling 2.4%, as rising yields hurt growth and chip stocks. SK Hynix fell 5.2% and Samsung Electronics lost 2.0%, while Hyundai Motor dropped 8.9% and LG Electronics declined 11.7% in a broader Korean selloff. Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.4%, erasing early gains despite better consumer spending data. Investors now look to Nvidia earnings as the next test for the AI trade.

Volatility

Volatility remained elevated ahead of Nvidia earnings, as investors balanced AI optimism against a renewed surge in global bond yields. The VIX closed at 18.06 on Tuesday, while the S&P 500 fell 0.7% to 7,353.61 after the US 30-year Treasury yield briefly touched 5.20%, its highest level since before the 2008 financial crisis. Higher oil prices and inflation concerns linked to Middle East tensions are also increasing worries that central banks may keep rates higher for longer.
For investors, the key issue is valuation sensitivity rather than panic. Markets are still supported by AI expectations, but higher yields are putting pressure on expensive growth stocks, making Nvidia’s earnings later today one of the week’s most important catalysts for the broader technology sector.
Based on SPX options pricing, the market currently implies a move of about 91 points, or 1.23%, through Friday. For today’s expiry, the 0DTE options positioning showed a mildly defensive skew, with downside puts modestly richer than comparable upside calls further away from spot, while the at-the-money straddle remained broadly balanced. In simple terms: investors are still paying slightly more for short-term downside protection than upside exposure.

Digital Assets

Digital assets steadied after several weaker sessions, although the broader tone remained cautious as rising bond yields and geopolitical uncertainty continued to weigh on risk appetite. Bitcoin traded near USD 77,100, while Ethereum held around USD 2,125, both stabilising after recent declines linked to the global bond sell-off and Middle East tensions. Crypto markets are increasingly trading like broader risk assets again, meaning higher yields remain an important headwind.
IBIT traded around USD 43.50 and ETHA near USD 15.93, with both ETFs relatively stable despite softer spot Bitcoin ETF flows earlier this week. Recent outflows suggest institutional demand has cooled somewhat compared with the stronger momentum seen earlier this month, although the market has so far avoided a deeper breakdown.
Among major altcoins, XRP traded near USD 1.37, Solana around USD 84.8, and Dogecoin close to USD 0.19. Options flow still showed selective optimism in names such as Strategy, IBIT and Coinbase, although sizeable downside hedging activity in Coinbase and crypto miners highlighted that positioning remains cautious rather than aggressively bullish.

Commodities

Gold trades lower on Fed hike anxiety as the dollar, and not least bond yields, continue to rise amid inflation concerns driven by the Middle East conflict and prolonged disruption to the supply of key commodities moving from the Persian Gulf through the almost closed Strait of Hormuz. Silver, meanwhile, slumped below USD 74 following last week’s false breakout that briefly pushed prices above USD 89. While the recent surge in US yields, if sustained, would materially increase the US government’s interest burden and debt servicing costs – lifting fiscal debt concerns - the near-term focus remains on a precious-metal-unfriendly environment. Gold is currently trading between two moving averages, the 200-day at USD 4,360 and the 50-day at USD 4,690.
Brent crude holds above USD 110 for a second consecutive day, with hopes for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remaining elusive as Trump threatens renewed strikes on Iran. Ahead of the EIA’s weekly inventory report, the API reported another substantial draw in crude and fuel stockpiles. In addition, a record 9.9 million barrels was withdrawn from SPR in the week to 15 May.
Sugar futures climbed back above 15 cents per pound on expectations that Brazilian mills may divert more cane toward ethanol production as gasoline prices rise. Markets are also increasingly concerned that El Niño-driven dry weather could reduce rainfall across India and Thailand, weighing on yields. Adding further support, India has extended restrictions on sugar exports until October to contain domestic prices.

Fixed Income

US Treasuries are under pressure, with yields pulling sharply to new cycle highs Tuesday, with the longest yields touching levels not seen since prior to the global financial crisis – the 30-year benchmark T-bond yield peaked out just shy of 5.20%, up seven basis points from the prior close, before the yield rolled back to 5.18% early Wednesday. Elsewhere, the benchmark 10-year yield rose as high as 4.685% before easing back to 4.66% and the two-year benchmark rose as high as 4.137% before pulling back to 4.105% ahead of today’s FOMC Minutes and after the market has been slowly dragged into pricing the potential that the next Fed move could be a hike, perhaps somewhere late this year.
Japan’s longest government bonds found strong support Wednesday as Japan’s yield curve flattened. Strong demand and bid-to-cover ratio just over 4 times were noted at an auction of 20-year JGB’s. The benchmark 30-year JGB yield fell back nine basis points, more than erasing the prior day’s advance, trading near 4.07% in late trading hours in Tokyo Wednesday. The benchmark 10-year JGB saw less of a swing lower, almost steady near 2.79% and serving nearly as the fulcrum of the overall yield curve flattening as the benchmark 2-year JGB yield rose just over a basis point to 1.45% as expectations for further BoJ tightening rise. Odds of a mid-June BoJ rate hike have now risen to over 80% for the first time.

Currencies

The US dollar rally reasserted Tuesday as US treasury yields lifted to new cycle highs. EURUSD fell below 1.1600 for the first time since early April, though the round level proved sticky in price action late Tuesday and early Wednesday. Elsewhere, USDJPY was less impacted by USD strength, perhaps in part by the strong demand for the longest dated JGB’s Wednesday, which push back against concerns of instability in Japan’s bond markets. The 159.00 area in USDJPY is serving as resistance, perhaps as traders are wary of the risk of Japanese intervention if the price action pushes toward the 160.00 level, as the Ministry of Finance has pushed back against JPY weakness on multiple occasions, first from above 160.00 and later appeared to intervene at levels between 157.00 and 158.00.
The Australian dollar continues to trade heavily, perhaps weighed down by heavy action in metals, but also by heavy long positioning, if we are to consider the most recent positioning reports in US futures. There, the CFTC reported a net non-commercial long of almost 85 thousand contracts. It’s the most stretched long position since 2012. Australia reports its April employment figures and flash May manufacturing and services PMI early Thursday. AUDUSD has tested just below the 0.7100 level, its lowest level since mid-April.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

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London Quick Take - Wednesday - UK inflation eases, stocks hit the wall of rising bond yields, Nvidia to the rescue?

Wed, 20 May 2026 05:38:00 Z

Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.

Nvidia to the rescue? With stocks slipping back amid a broad selloff in bond markets, which has pushed yields on longer-dated paper to multi-year and multi-decade highs, can the stock market darling save the day? My bet is the bond market is more intimidating to risk assets in the near-term with flow-driven selling likely to see further pullback for US equities, while the direction of travel in Hormuz still seems broadly encouraging for European equities.

UK inflation fell to 2.8% last month to a 14-month low, declining from 3.3% in March, as base effects and government efforts to curb energy prices. The print seems to be helping ease pressure on gilt yields, which have come back down a bit from their recent highs. Andy Burnham talking up the fiscal rules helped no end, too. While inflation is still seen picking up towards 4%, the data underscores the Bank of England’s decision to wait and see what happens in terms of second-order inflationary impulses. Yesterday’s soft employment numbers underline the need to hold off on rate hikes. I continue to believe the market is mispricing the course of monetary policy by pricing in a couple of hikes this year – as noted yesterday, the bank ought to be shifting back to an easing bias. UK 10yr and 30yr gilt yields declined at the open in London and 2yr yields dropped 5bps to 4.46%, with the front end generally a lot more sensitive to policy rates. BoE governor Andrew Bailey is due to speak today before MPs.

Playing catchup a bit to the UK - a selloff in global bond markets has checked the record-breaking rally in US equities. US 30yr yields touched 5.19%, its highest level in 19 years, while the benchmark 10yr yield rose to a one-year high at 4.687%. It comes amid rising inflation fears from the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz on top of underlying fiscal worries about rising debt and deficit levels, Big Beautiful Tax Bill, tariff uncertainty. Wall Street logged its third-straight decline as Treasury yields rose to levels that tend to weigh on almost all risk assets. The S&P 500 declined 0.67% while the Nasdaq dropped 0.84%. Both hit record highs last week with earnings flying higher but the rise in yields was the one thing that could really check the ascent.

Indeed the BofA global fund manager survey yesterday showed record equity allocation in April, bear capitulation almost complete...early June ripe for profit taking...degree of decline to be determined by bond yields...this is exactly what's playing out it seems.

Today, Asian equities fell for a fourth day led by chipmakers in South Korea as Samsung union plans to strike. European stock markets slid about a third to half a percent early doors with the cues taken from Asian and US markets overnight. The FTSE 100 tracked back below 10,300 as it trips around the recent range, overall looking pretty rangebound and lacking meaningful direction. Marks & Spencer rallied 3% as it hiked the dividend 17% despite a sharp fall in profits due to last year’s cyber attack, which was already discounted. Food sales +7% is a positive and profit growth will resume this year. Experian meanwhile announced $1bn buyback after 8% organic revenue growth drove +14% rise in profits.

The level of the yields is one thing, the pace at which we got here is another. It’s largely a reaction to last week’s hot PPI inflation report; the US-Iran stalemate is nothing new, albeit incrementally on the margins the longer the Strait is closed the worse the inflation risk gets. HSBC said yields at these levels are in the “Danger Zone” but in the US at least it’s against the backdrop of a resilient economy, robust labour market and rising corporate earnings. President Trump said he’d let new Fed chair Kevin Warsh “do what he wants to do” on interest rates. The market is shouting to the Fed to shift from an easing bias to tightening and quick.

But are signs of progress? Two supertankers carrying 6mn barrels of oil exited the Strait on Wednesday with a third on its way via the same route ordered by Iran to use. Expect slow and uneven resolution to Hormuz, risk assets may struggle as extreme left tail risk is already priced out. There are reports today of Nato deploying to Hormuz to carry out safe passage missions...what took so long? It's a sign that Europe doesn't expect shooting to restart anyway! There's probably scope for European equities now to catchup the US lead as yields way more on the tech space for the latter.

The outsized move in UK gilt yields has reflected the inflation premium – the UK is more exposed to rising energy bills – as well as the recent political premium. As noted here there is a reason to think that markets are overshooting the risk premia.

The focus today is less on the tape and more what comes after – Nvidia earnings due out after the closing bell on Wall Street. Last time Nvidia reported $68 billion in quarterly sales, over 90% of which came from its data center segment. This time, Wall Street’s expecting an even bigger haul – $78.8 billion, up roughly 80%, with profits doubling to $42.5 billion. Worth noting that it’s beaten earnings estimates for 13 quarters on the bounce. The whisper numbers are moving up and UBS forecasts revenue of around $81 billion, roughly $3 billion ahead of the consensus. Guidance for Q2 is seen in the $90 billion to $91 billion range. Another key question is on margins, currently in the mid-70s% range, can be maintained at these levels given the cost of materials such as memory chips and advanced packaging materials, which have surged lately. In addition to the brass tacks, I think there are three key questions Nvidia needs to answer: can it ease scepticism over the pace of AI capex by the hyperscalers; can and how it can defend its position in the market as hyperscalers seek alternatives; and the latest progress on the Vera CPUs, which are due to begin shipping in the second half of the year at a time when the CPU space is booming.

Elsewhere, Fed minutes are due later. Finally, SpaceX is said to have picked Goldman Sachs lead what is expected to be a record-breaking IPO. And - no chart - but per yesterday's chart Tesla closed below its 200-day moving average yesterday.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities United Kingdom Highlighted articles UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer FR US Actualites et Analyses Trump Version 2 - Investors Volatility investor TagFeed En hurtig tanke

Asia Market Quick Take – 20 May, 2026

Wed, 20 May 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 20 May, 2026

Key points:

Macro: Trump warns of strikes if talks with Gulf nations fail
Equities: US futures slides as yields climb and Trump threatens Iran
FX: USD strengthens as yields climb higher
Commodities: Metals fall across the board; WTI remains above $100
Fixed income: US 30Y yields reach highest since July 2007

------------------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson supports holding rates steady, calling policy mildly restrictive and effective at containing inflation while the labor market stays solid. She said it’s healthy for markets to expect a long hold and even consider more tightening. Yield moves are being driven by real rates, and consumers are stretched but not cutting back overall.
Trump warned US strikes on Iran could resume within days if talks with Gulf nations fail, adding to market volatility.
US pending home sales rose 1.4% in April, a third straight gain and above the 1% forecast. Sales were up 3.2% year-over-year, with increases in the Northeast, Midwest, and West. NAR’s Lawrence Yun said buyers are cautiously returning despite higher mortgage rates and warned that without more housing supply, prices could outpace wages and hurt homeownership.
Canada’s headline inflation rose to 2.8% in April from 2.4%, a two-year high but below the 3.1% forecast, mainly on a 19.2% jump in energy that lifted transportation inflation to 7.6%. BoC’s trimmed-mean and median core measures fell to 2.0% and 2.1%, their lowest in five years. Food inflation eased to 3.5%, and shelter edged up to 1.8%.
The UN cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.5%, 0.2 ppts below January’s view and under the estimated 3.0% in 2025, citing inflation from the Middle East conflict. Strong labor markets, resilient demand, and AI-driven trade and investment provide some support, but the outlook stays weak. Energy price gains are boosting producers while pressuring households and firms. The US is seen growing 2.0% in 2026.

Equities:

US – US equity indexes slid on Tuesday as the 30-year Treasury yield rose to a two-decade high amid bets favoring higher interest rates and President Trump's threat to Iran. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.8% to 25,870.71, with the S&P 500 down 0.7% to 7,353.61 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lower by 0.7% to 49,363.88 at the close. Materials, communication services, and consumer discretionary sectors led declines. Home Depot gained 0.7% after posting first-quarter earnings that beat analysts' estimates with revenue rising 4.8% to $41.8 billion. ServiceNow surged after strong results. Alphabet declined 2.3%, contributing the most to the S&P 500 index decline. Vertiv Holdings fell 13% over two days, the most since April 2025.
EU – European stocks rose for a second day, with the Stoxx 600 index gaining 0.2% by the close. Evolution AB jumped 7% after the Swedish online gambling company approved a €2 billion share buyback. Currys Plc rose 15%, the most since September 2025, after the electrical products retailer increased its full-year profit guidance. IG Group Holdings Plc surged 10.5% after beating expectations and raising its outlook. SAP rallied 6.0%, leading gains. Germany's DAX index rose 0.38% to 24,400.65. Poland's KGHM led a selloff in European mining stocks, sliding 5% to 322.60 zloty as a rise in US Treasury yields hit silver and gold prices.
Asia – Asian stocks dropped for a third session as a lack of clarity over an Iran peace deal and elevated global bond yields weighed on risk sentiment. South Korea's Kospi Index was one of the worst performers, tumbling 3.3% to close at 7,271.66 as rising bond yields dulled the appeal of growth stocks like chipmakers. The Kosdaq declined 2.4% to close at 1,084.36. Samsung Electronics and its largest labor union managed to narrow some differences in their fresh talks that resumed Monday. Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 lost 0.4% to finish at 60,550.59, erasing initial gains after the government reported that the economy grew for the second straight quarter in January-March, mainly due to better than expected consumer spending. Hong Kong's Hang Seng and Singapore's STI also traded under pressure amid the broader regional selloff.

Earnings this week:

Wednesday — Tokio Marine; Nvidia; Analog Devices; TJX; Intuit; Experian; Lowe’s; Target
Thursday — NetEase; Singtel; NIO; Walmart; Deere; Take-Two Interactive; Workday

FX:

USD strengthened to a six-week high against G-10 currencies as renewed inflation fears pushed US yields sharply higher and shifting trader focus toward 5.5% as the next key level. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained as much as 0.5% intraday before easing.
USDJPY climbed to its strongest since Japan’s April 30 intervention, while intervention risk kept demand for options hedges elevated.
AUD slid to a one-month low after the RBA signalled caution amid higher fuel costs.
GBP and EUR weakened, with UK data showing the steepest job losses since the pandemic. CAD also softened after cooler core inflation, lifting USDCAD modestly.
The yuan declined both onshore and offshore, weakening past the 6.8 key level. USDCNH rose 0.25% to 6.8166.

Commodities:

Gold and silver slumped as Treasury yields rose on inflation concerns. Comex gold for May delivery lost $46.20 per troy ounce, or 1.01%, to $4,506.30, marking its fourth consecutive session decline and the lowest settlement value since Friday, March 27, 2026.
Copper prices fell with LME 3-month copper closing $176 lower at $13,411 a ton. Chile lowered its production forecasts for this year and next, with Chilean production expected to fall 2% to 5.3 million metric tons this year, weighed down by lower ore grades, maintenance and operational constraints. Chile lifted its 2026 copper price forecast to $5.55 per pound.
Crude oil futures remained above $100 per barrel amid ongoing uncertainty about the Iran war. The American Petroleum Institute reported US crude inventories fell 9.1 million barrels last week, with Cushing stockpiles down 1.4 million barrels, gasoline down 5.8 million barrels, and distillate down 1.0 million barrels. WTI's July contract traded at $104.09 per barrel.

Fixed income:

The 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5.20%, the highest level since July 2007, as investor concerns mounted that accelerating inflation will force central bankers to raise interest rates. The yield rose 0.034 percentage point to 5.180% by the close, marking its third consecutive day of gains and largest three-day yield gain since Wednesday, May 21, 2025.
A series of large sales in US Treasury futures exacerbated the selloff in the $31 trillion government debt market. A wave of block sales in both 5-year and 10-year note futures added to the pressure during a manic hour of trading in the US morning session.
Australian and New Zealand bonds tracked Treasuries lower on mounting bets that oil-driven cost pressures will prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The implied yield on Australia's 3-year note futures added 3 basis points to 4.71% in the overnight session, while that on 10-year bond futures lifted 4 basis points to 5.12%. The yield on New Zealand's 2-year note rose 3 basis points to 3.69%, while that on the 10-year bond advanced 6 basis points to 4.80%.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance. The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.

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Investor Insights: Are UK Gilts Attractive Again After the Sell-Off?

Tue, 19 May 2026 12:41:00 Z

Key points:

UK 30yr gilt yields touched 28-year highs on a mix of inflationary, fiscal and political risks inflicting losses in the fixed income space

Global bond yields have risen sharply since the US-Iran war, with US Treasury 30yr yields hitting 19-year highs this week

However with bad news priced into gilt markets investors are looking at bagging high yields

The sell-off in UK government bonds has been less like a straightforward inflation panic and more like a market demanding an additional political risk premium. As in 2022, the selloff in gilts has come amid a global bond rout, but the UK has again been punished more heavily than others due to political and fiscal worries.

Long-dated gilt yields have climbed sharply in recent weeks with the 30yr gilt yield at a 28-year high as investors grapple with two overlapping risks: first, the possibility that escalating tensions in the Middle East could persist and not just push energy prices materially higher but lead to a second-order impact on inflation; second, growing concerns that the emerging Labour leadership struggle could weaken fiscal discipline just as Britain’s debt servicing costs remain elevated.

But after the move higher in yields, investors should ask a more important question: are gilts now beginning to look attractive again? There is a growing case that they are.

The market is pricing a lot of bad news

The first phase of the gilt sell-off was relatively straightforward. Rising oil prices and fears of renewed inflation forced markets to reassess the likely path for Bank of England rate cuts.

If energy inflation feeds through into headline CPI, the BoE becomes more cautious. That pushes up front-end yields.

But the second phase has been more political in nature since the 6 May elections in England, Scotland and Wales heaped pressure on the prime minister, Keir Starmer.

The prospect of a Labour leadership contest — with figures such as Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting increasingly challengers to Starmer — has introduced fears that fiscal policy could loosen further, particularly if leadership contenders begin competing on spending promises ahead of an election cycle.

That matters because the UK remains unusually sensitive to shifts in market confidence.

Britain runs persistent fiscal deficits, has relatively short average debt maturity compared with some peers once inflation-linked debt is accounted for, and already faces elevated debt servicing costs after the inflation shock of 2022-23.

Investors therefore do not just price inflation risk into gilts — they price political credibility. And that credibility premium has clearly deteriorated.

But how much higher can yields realistically go? This is where the investment case becomes more interesting.

The UK is not facing a mini-budget style crisis.

There is currently no sign of unfunded tax cuts on the scale seen during the September 2022 United Kingdom mini-budget shock. In fact, even leadership challengers inside Labour are still publicly committing themselves to fiscal rules. Importantly, Andy Burnham chose to go on Bloomberg to say that not only would he stick to the current fiscal rules, he would not exempt defence spending from this paradigm. This could be important - given Burnham is the hot favourite to win any leadership race - in the context of the current level of risk premia priced into gilts.

That distinction matters enormously. Markets are nervous about fiscal drift — not outright fiscal abandonment - the UK is not at risk of defaulting on its debts. It's just that it may need to print more and borrow more to get by - the prospect of which bond vigilantes have been swift to punish, even if it's not what transpires.

At the same time, long-term gilt yields are already embedding a fairly aggressive combination of assumptions:

structurally higher inflation

elevated term premia

political instability

slower growth

slower BoE easing

That is a difficult combination to sustain indefinitely.

Historically, gilt markets tend to overshoot during periods where inflation fears and political fears arrive simultaneously. Once one of those fears begins to fade, yields can retrace surprisingly quickly.

And there are several reasons why that could happen over the coming months.

The growth backdrop still argues for lower yields

The UK economy is hardly booming: Consumer demand remains patchy, the housing market is fragile, and business investment continues to struggle against weak productivity growth and high financing costs. Critically today's labour market report showing plunging payrolls and rising unemployment whilst wage growth cools argues for the Bank of England to remain on pause.

If higher energy prices start to squeeze households again, the likely outcome is not necessarily sustained inflationary overheating — it may instead be weaker real growth. That matters because markets eventually return to fundamentals.

A structurally weak growth economy typically struggles to sustain very high real yields for long periods.

Meanwhile, pension demand for long-duration assets remains substantial, albeit there is a structural problem with the declining defined benefit liability matching bid for gilts that's sustained them for decades; insurance buyers continue to require high-quality sovereign collateral, and overseas investors may increasingly view gilts as relatively attractive versus European government bonds once currency effects are considered.

In other words, there is a growing possibility that gilts are moving from being politically toxic - uninvestable I've heard from some, to a clear point where value starting to emerge.

Rate cuts not hikes

As I have consistently argued the market is mispricing the future monetary policy path for the Bank of England. I believe the data points to the need for rate cuts rather than hikes. Here is the excellent Frank Flight of Citadel: "Importantly however the better growth outlook continues to look broadly consistent with a more dovish BOE policy path than priced. Whilst inflation will accelerate due to the energy shock, the underlying trend in the policy relevant data continue to point to rate cuts. Using our policy relevant data framework, which includes 15 different inputs across various inflation, inflation expectations, wages, vacancies, hiring and labour market proxies, we estimate a risk neutral policy outlook consistent with 50bp of rate cuts over the policy horizon, vs 2y2y Sonia which currently prices over 50bp of hikes, implying a 100bp residual risk premium."

What investors should watch now

For investors considering gilts, the next few months will likely hinge on four key signals:

1. Oil prices and shipping disruption

If Middle East tensions fade or energy prices stabilise, inflation fears could ease rapidly.

2. Labour’s fiscal messaging

Markets will closely watch whether Labour leadership contenders continue backing fiscal rules or begin signalling materially looser spending plans. The mood music is that they understand they need to stick to the rules.

3. Bank of England language

If the BoE starts emphasising growth weakness over inflation persistence, markets could quickly revive rate-cut expectations.

4. Gilt auctions and foreign demand

Strong auction coverage or improving overseas participation would suggest buyers are returning at these yield levels. Important to note that the DMO is cutting maturities, which will support the long end of the curve (ie lower rates). Here is Flight of Citadel again: "The 2026-2027 financing remit implies planned gross gilt sales of £246.2bn, of which a total of £171bn will come via conventional and syndicated issuance in the short and medium part of the curve, representing 69.5% of total issuance, up from around 55% on the eve of the 2022 gilt crisis."

The bigger picture

For long-term investors, the key point is that yields are now starting from much more attractive levels than they were for most of the post-financial crisis era. The income from yields is at levels where stocks are coming under pressure again. And unless investors believe Britain is heading towards a full-blown fiscal credibility crisis — which currently still looks unlikely — there is a reasonable argument that risk premia have become somewhat excessive.

That does not mean volatility disappears. But it does suggest that, after a painful sell-off, UK government bonds may increasingly offer some value with yields this high. That said I remain of the belief that we have to contend with rates and inflation settling higher than it would have done before the Iran/Labour dramas.

Markets assume Burnham will risk fiscal credibility to win support - assuming he's already won the support of the Labour party (which polls suggest he has easily) there's significant cost to a leftwards lurch and there's a great deal more strategic logic to getting the bond market on side, lower bond yields (and therefore borrowing, creating more headroom) and nixing the fiscal credibility doom loop.

Here's our 3 scenarios for gilts based on the current macro setup

Scenario	Inflation Backdrop	Fiscal/Political Backdrop	Bank of England Response	Likely Gilt Market Reaction
Base Case	Energy-driven inflation bump proves temporary. Headline CPI rises modestly but core inflation continues to cool gradually. Growth remains sluggish.	Labour leadership tensions create noise but fiscal rules broadly remain intact. Markets worry about drift rather than outright abandonment of discipline.	BoE stays cautious but still gradually moves toward rate cuts later in the year as growth weakens.	Yields likely stabilise and drift lower from current elevated levels as political risk premium fades somewhat. Long-dated gilts outperform.
Hawkish Scenario	Middle East escalation pushes oil and shipping costs sharply higher, creating a more persistent inflation shock. Wage pressures remain sticky.	Labour contest evolves into a spending competition. Markets begin questioning credibility of fiscal rules and future borrowing trajectory.	BoE spooked by high inflation prints commits policy mistake by hiking to contain inflation expectations and defend sterling credibility.	Gilt yields move materially higher, especially at the long end. Curve steepens as investors demand greater term premium and fiscal compensation. Sterling weakens.
Dovish Scenario	Energy shock fades quickly. Inflation resumes a clearer downward trend as weak demand dominates. Consumer slowdown intensifies.	Labour leadership battle settles relatively quickly with reaffirmation of fiscal discipline and spending restraint.	BoE pivots more decisively toward easing amid weakening growth and cooling inflation pressures.	Gilt yields fall meaningfully, particularly in long maturities. Risk premium compresses and gilts rally as investors rotate back into duration.

Here's a look at the pros and cons of investing directly in gilts versus investing in gilt funds.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Bonds United Kingdom Highlighted articles UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer Volatility investor TagFeed

Options Brief - Bond rout, chips down - 19 May 2026

Tue, 19 May 2026 07:52:00 Z

Four things defined Monday’s markets: the 10-year US Treasury yield closed at a 12-month high of 4.60%. Seagate dropped nearly 7% and Micron close to 6% on chip factory delay warnings. The VIX fell 3.3% to 17.82, despite all of that. And equity put/call ratios fell 12-18%, signalling traders are letting their hedges lapse just as the macro picture gets messier.

Options Brief – Bond rout, chips down – 19 May 2026

Treasury yields hit a 12-month high and semiconductor stocks took a heavy hit, while the VIX continued its descent in a LOW VOL BULL regime that is quietly testing how complacent markets can get.

Headline driver

The 10-year US Treasury yield settled at 4.601% on Monday, its highest close in 12 months, as the ongoing US-Iran war kept energy prices elevated and inflation fears drove a global bond sell-off that simultaneously pushed Japan’s 30-year yield to an all-time record. Equities were split along familiar lines: the Dow held up while tech retreated, with a semiconductor-led decline pulling the Nasdaq 100 lower. Heading into Tuesday, oil is pulling back as President Trump announced he called off a planned strike on Iran following diplomatic requests from Gulf Arab allies.

Market snapshot

The S&P 500 closed at 7,403.05 (–0.07%), masking a notable internal split: the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.45% to 28,994.37 while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.32% to 49,690.96.
The Russell 2000 underperformed at –0.65%, closing at 2,775.10.
European markets diverged sharply to the upside – the DAX closed +1.49% at 24,307.92, the Euro Stoxx 50 gained 0.36%, and the broader Euro Stoxx 600 added 0.54%.
The dollar slipped 0.32% to 98.95 even as yields climbed, a combination that tends to reflect fiscal risk premium being priced in rather than rate expectations shifting.

Market regime: LOW VOL BULL – VIX 17.82, 20-day realised vol 10.7% (decreasing), S&P 500 +6.76% above its 50-day moving average

Options angle

The VIX, the CBOE’s 30-day implied volatility gauge for the S&P 500, closed at 17.82, down 3.31% despite the bond market selling off to 12-month extremes and a sharp semiconductor decline – a reminder that index-level vol can compress even on unsettled macro days when the underlying index barely moves. The CBOE SKEW index, which measures the premium paid for out-of-the-money downside protection relative to equivalent upside exposure, dropped 5.06% to 138.40 but remains structurally elevated, indicating the options surface still prices significant tail risk in the downside. Equity put/call ratios fell sharply: the CBOE S&P 500 put/call ratio (PCSX) declined 6.96% to 1.07, and equity-only ratios fell between 12% and 18%, pointing to a broad shift away from protective positioning as equities held their ground. The VVIX, the volatility of the VIX itself, eased to 91.18 (–1.89%), and the VIX term structure remains in contango, with front-month VIX futures trading near 20.20 against spot at 17.82.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.

Strategy insight – Bullish risk reversal as a zero-cost directional trade. The elevated SKEW creates an exploitable asymmetry: put options are expensive, call options are relatively cheap by comparison. A bullish risk reversal – selling an out-of-the-money put and using the proceeds to buy an out-of-the-money call – can be structured for zero net premium or even a small credit, giving bullish exposure without an upfront cost. This suits the current LOW VOL BULL regime well: the market is above its 50-day moving average, realised vol is falling, and the directional bias is intact.
The structure is only suitable for traders who are genuinely comfortable owning the underlying at the put strike if prices fall, because assignment on the short put is the main risk.

Strategy insight – Collar as a reset tool after a sharp sector decline. Single-stock implied volatility in semiconductor names tends to spike after a large one-day move – Seagate’s near-7% drop and Micron’s close-to-6% slide are exactly the kind of events that reprice nearby options upward. For investors who held these positions through the decline, a collar (selling an out-of-the-money call to collect elevated post-move premium and using those proceeds to buy a protective put) can lock in the current price range at little or no net cost. The structure gives up further upside above the call strike but provides a defined floor below the put strike, which is useful when the next catalyst for the sector is unclear.
The main risk is opportunity cost: if the stock recovers sharply, gains are capped at the short call strike.

Conclusion

Monday’s session showed that the LOW VOL BULL regime can absorb a significant bond market move without triggering an equity unwind – for now. Tuesday opens with oil retreating on the Iran ceasefire overture and Korean markets down another 3.35% in the overnight session, led by semiconductor names. The vol surface tells a consistent story: falling spot vol, elevated SKEW, declining put/call ratios. That combination rewards defined-risk structures over naked positions, on both the bullish and the defensive side.

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More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

UK jobs report underlines case for Bank of England to hold fire on rate hikes

Tue, 19 May 2026 07:48:00 Z

Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.

The UK jobs report out Tuesday (19 May) underlined why the Bank of England should not be in a rush to raise rates as a result of the Iran war inflation shock, though the key test for market expectations for tightening may be tomorrow's CPI inflation report.

Data, which showed the unemployment rate rising to 5.0% from 4.9% and a sharp downturn in payrolls, highlights how this supply shock is not a repeat of the 2022 inflation dynamic, in which ample demand and labour market tightness fuelled second-order inflation pressures.

First, jobs are being destroyed. Payrolls declined by 100k in April, after a decline of 28k in March, which was revised up from a smaller decline. The drop in April payrolls was the single biggest decline since the pandemic in May 2020. Vacancies also plunged 28k to 705k, which is a five-year low.

This is feeding into wage growth cooling sharply. Three-month annualised change in private pay rose just +0.6%, the weakest since 2015.

Taken together, it really raises doubts about whether the Bank of England needs to raise rates to combat inflation.

What does it mean for the Bank of England?

Following the BoE’ decision in April I noted that while the Bank is mindful of inflation recent labour market data has softened and does not suggest second order effects of wage price spirals. This is not 2022 – a fact stressed by Governor Andrew Bailey in his remarks accompanying the April meeting; the labour market is in a far worse place, workers lack the bargaining power they had then, rates are already restrictive not at the zero lower bound, and we don't have the huge post-pandemic demand impulse that unleashed prices and inflation expectations became unanchored.

The latest report on employment further underscores this assumption in terms of the likelihood of second-order inflation pressures. In April I also noted that commentary from the MPC members indicated there seems to be a majority within the committee who are not in a rush to raise rates as quickly or as aggressively as the gilt futures markets implied.

However, I also noted that the key test will be the pass-through to CPI inflation figures – those are out tomorrow morning and are expected to rise as high as 3.7% for April, having jumped from 3.0% in February to 3.3% in March. These numbers will be crucial to whether the Bank moves to raise rates in June. I suspect a majority of MPC members are keen to hold fire until more is known, but we cannot rule out a hike next month with little signs of progress on the Strait of Hormuz.

The Bank of England ought to look through this temporary supply shock and wait a while longer before it thinks about thinks about raising rates. While inflation has ticked up due to motor fuel prices, we need more time to see the impact on broader inflationary pressures and second-round effects. Business surveys meanwhile paint a mixed picture with the Bank's own Decision Maker Panel not suggesting much pass-through. It will be harder for firms to pass on higher costs than it was in 2022 - by hiking the Bank risks fighting the last war. Governor Bailey seems aware of this risk.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Forex United Kingdom Highlighted articles UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer FR US Actualites et Analyses Trump Version 2 - Investors Volatility investor TagFeed En hurtig tanke

Gold: Near-term headwinds meet longer-term structural support

Tue, 19 May 2026 07:30:00 Z

Key points:

Gold trades at the lower end of a USD 1,500 correction range established between the January high at USD 5,595 and March low at USD 4,100.
Higher energy-driven inflation expectations and rising bond yields are currently overshadowing long-held supportive drivers, notably fiscal debt concerns, investor and central bank reserve diversification, and ongoing de-dollarisation trends.
ETF flows and volatility indicators point to subdued participation and a market awaiting a clearer catalyst, either technical or fundamental driven.

Gold continues its week-long consolidation phase after a historic rally that carried bullion to a January peak near USD 5,595 before correcting sharply to a March low near USD 4,100. At around USD 4,550, bullion still trades up roughly 5% year-to-date and 40% over the past year, but it remains near the lower end of the approximately USD 1,500 correction range established during the first quarter.

The current environment highlights an increasingly important distinction between what traders are focusing on in the short term and what investors continue to monitor over the longer term. While the structural investment case for gold remains largely intact, shorter-term macro developments have created a more challenging backdrop for prices.

From a trader perspective, attention remains centred on energy prices, inflation expectations, bond yields and the dollar. The Middle East crisis and associated disruptions across energy markets have lifted inflation expectations at a time when markets had been preparing for lower interest rates. Higher energy prices feed directly into inflation and, by extension, government bond yields, while also lending support to the US dollar.

This combination has created a challenging environment for bullion. Rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset, while a stronger dollar tends to weigh on demand from non-dollar investors. As a result, the normal safe-haven response has become less straightforward. Under the current reaction function, an escalation in geopolitical tensions can at times weigh on gold if it triggers another rise in energy prices and inflation expectations.

Technically, gold has in the very short term settled into a narrow USD 4,500 to 4,590 range, with prices compressing around key Fibonacci retracement levels. The broader setup remains constrained by two important moving averages. The 200-day moving average, currently near USD 4,355, represents the next major support level, while the 50-day moving average around USD 4,705 continues to cap upside attempts.

Spot gold with technical levels - Source: Saxo

Spot Gold, five-year chart - Source: Saxo

Investor positioning supports the view of a market waiting for direction. ETF holdings have largely flat-lined over the past month, suggesting a lack of strong fresh conviction, while volatility continues to decline. Average True Range has fallen to a four-month low, pointing to increasingly compressed trading conditions and a market potentially building toward a larger directional move once either the technical or fundamental picture becomes clearer.

Another factor potentially weighing on prices may be forced or tactical selling from some central banks. Several energy-importing countries are facing sharply higher fuel costs and increased pressure on local currencies from rising dollar-denominated import bills. Under such conditions, some official-sector holders may be selling gold either to defend currencies or help finance elevated energy purchases. This does not necessarily undermine the broader official-sector demand story, but it may help explain some of gold's muted response to geopolitical stress.

In our opinion, longer term investors continue to focus on a different set of drivers. Rising fiscal debt burdens, particularly in the United States, have regained attention as higher Treasury yields increase interest servicing costs. At the same time, sticky inflation continues to challenge traditional fixed-income returns, while reserve diversification and de-dollarisation trends remain supportive themes.

Once immediate energy-related pressures begin to ease, central bank demand may re-emerge as a more dominant driver. For now, gold remains caught between near-term macro headwinds and longer-term structural support, leaving bullion in a holding pattern with no clear direction while markets await greater clarity.

Gold investment flows in ETFs and futures, as well as short-term correlations with dollar and US real yields - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

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Educational resources:
A short guide to trading crude oil
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A short guide to trading gold
A short guide to trading copper
A short guide to trading silver
Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?

Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

More from the author
Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on Twitter and BlueSky social media platforms

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Commodities Iran USA Inflation Crude Oil Oil Gold USD

London Quick Take - Tuesday - FTSE gains and gilt yields ease as UK unemployment jumps, Brent steady as Trump calls off Iran attack

Tue, 19 May 2026 06:30:00 Z

Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.

It’s a rather strange, rather mixed and confused picture with various conflicting signals from the Middle East making it a tough read for traders. Friday’s bond selloff has eased a bit, but it’s clear bond markets remain highly sensitive to inflation and fiscal risks. European shares have rallied and are extending gains this morning but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipped on Monday, extending losses from Friday's decline.

Offer and counteroffer, rumour upon report...it’s been the entire US-Iran milieu in microcosm the last 24 hours. With the trading week initially kicking off with yields up and equities down, European stock markets turned course and rallied while bond yields drifted down on reports of a possible de-escalation of the US-Iran situation, which had started to show signs of heating up over the weekend.

One report indicated Iran had submitted a revised proposal to the US to end the conflict, which has been on pause for 6 weeks thanks to a shaky ceasefire. Later the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported that the US has proposed a temporary waiver on Iran oil sanctions until the final agreement. Then news emerged the US rejected the most recent proposal from Iran, with Axios reporting the White House considers it not to be a meaningful improvement and that Iran is risking resumption of the war by not making concessions on its nuclear programme. Lots of back and forth but no material change in positions in the last few weeks. The latest is that President Trump said he called off a planned US attack on Iran after requests from Gulf nations.

With all that oil has been volatile with Brent crude as high as $112 overnight Sunday into Monday as President Trump warned Iran the ‘clock is ticking’ on agreeing a deal before dipping to take a $106 handle on hopes of progress, but inched back up to $110 as the afternoon progressed as there were few if any tangible signs of improvement. This morning Brent sits at the $110 mark having bounced off its 20-day SMA yesterday at a little under $107 where it seems well supported unless peace unexpectedly breaks out. The drawdown in global inventories suggests prices may need to move higher, especially further out the futures curve, but we seem to be dialing down the extreme left tail risk all the time.

"I put it off a little while, hopefully maybe forever, but possible for a little while, because we've had very big discussions with Iran, and we'll see what they amount to," Trump said at the White House. The main takeaway for the market is cutting the left tail risk as it looks like no one wants to re-escalate...this remains about the direction of travel.

Over here, Andy Burnham said he’d stick to the fiscal rules but said the UK had to abandon 40 years of neoliberalism...the psychodrama in the Labour party will continue to weigh on UK assets, particularly sterling and gilts. But I would say that I cannot see gilt yields moving an awful lot higher from here, albeit I think we see rates and inflation settle higher for longer vs what we were looking at before all this. Having ticked up as high as 5.877% for a new 28-year high the 30yr gilt yield drifted lower most of the day to below 5.75% before paring the losses a touch to climb above 5.82% again. This morning the 30yr has drifted lower once more to 5.73%, while the 10yr gilt yield also ticked down.

Yet more soft jobs data this morning from the UK is moving the needle on rates too – unemployment ticked up to 5% from 4.9% and payrolls fell by 100k....that’s enough to stop the Bank of England from being too quick to raise rates, particularly with wage growth cooling (this is not 2022 when workers had power during the ‘great resignation’). I reiterate what I’ve been saying for weeks now – the inflation story remains an external supply shock that cannot be fixed by monetary policy. Raising rates into a recessionary jobs market would be catastrophic and as per comments following the last BoE meeting, I think they are further away from hiking than the market is currently pricing.

After touching its weakest since the end of March at the start of trade yesterday the FTSE 100 put early losses quickly behind it to rally about 1.25%, while sterling also moved off multi-week lows at $1.327 by rallying one big figure to test the $1.34 level. The FTSE 100 traded up half a percent early Tuesday as the momentum from the precious session continued into the next. Standard Chartered shares slipped as the Asia-focused bank said it would cut 15% of its corporate function roles by 2030 and raised its return on tangible equity target to about 18% by the same year. SSP, the caterer, said it would exit a third of its European rail sites alongside interim results that showed the group returned to profit in the six months to March as revenues rose +6.2%. Shares rose 1.5% but remain way below pre-pandemic levels. Elsewhere on the FTSE 100, DCC reported profits +3.6% and adjusted continuing EPS +9.9%, while Diploma rallied +4% as it reported organic revenue growth of +15% and +300bps margin improvement.

US futures are steady after tech sent the Nasdaq and S&P 500 to back-to-back declines on Monday with Micron leading the selloff as memory chip firm Seagate warned new factories would “take too long”.

This is a tricky time for the market which has enjoyed a record-breaking V-shaped rally on a very narrow leadership of tech stocks – expect flow-driven pullbacks now. Earnings per share growth in the S&P 500 is tracking at +25.1% YoY, versus +13% expected heading into the quarter, per Citadel. A total of 84% of companies beat EPS estimates, the highest rate in five years, with tech leading the way. At 21x forward earnings the S&P 500 doesn’t look especially expensive, as long as earnings carry forward as expected, but returns are built on historically narrow breadth – just 27% of S&P 500 companies have outperformed the index over the last 30 days (again per Citadel) and that means that just 10 companies have delivered 72% of returns for the index. For leadership to shift to laggards, tech may need to pullback, which would weigh short-term at least on the index while rates at multi-year/decade highs are beginning to offer alternatives to stocks again.

Finally, Tesla looking vulnerable as it tests the 200-day line.

Source: Saxo

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities United Kingdom Highlighted articles UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer FR US Actualites et Analyses Trump Version 2 - Investors Volatility investor TagFeed En hurtig tanke

Market Quick Take - 19 May 2026

Tue, 19 May 2026 06:19:00 Z

Market Quick Take – 19 May 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

Equities: US stocks were mixed, Europe rose on energy and de-escalation hopes, while Asia struggled with oil and yields.
Volatility: VIX eases, bond yields elevated, Iran tensions cool slightly, Fed minutes and Nvidia earnings ahead
Digital Assets: Bitcoin near USD 77k, ETF outflows continue, yields and macro dominate sentiment
Fixed Income: Global bonds remain under pressure, especially at long end of curve, where yields rose again early Tuesday
Currencies: Recent stronger USD focus remains on rising treasury yields. Sterling recovers again.
Commodities: Oil remains elevated near USD 110 while gold holds above USD 4,500
Macro events: UK Employment and Claims data, Canada April CPI

Macro headlines

Trump said he called off a planned strike on Iran for Tuesday after appeals from Gulf allies, citing “serious negotiations”.
Kevin Warsh will be sworn in as Fed Chair by President Trump on Friday at the White House, as Fed officials continue to signal patience on rate cuts amid persistent inflation concerns.
Japan’s Q1 2026 GDP grew 2.1% annualized, beating the 1.7% consensus, with consumption up 0.3% q/q and net exports adding 0.3 ppt; the GDP deflator stayed at a stronger-than-expected 3.4%, bolstering the case for further BoJ hikes.
RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter warned inflation expectations risk drifting higher and that a sharp slowdown might be needed to re-anchor them if they slip out of control, but RBA minutes showed that the bank felt that the three consecutive meetings of rate hikes would give the board a chance to pause and assess the impact on Australian households.
The US NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose to 37 in May 2026 from 34 in April, beating forecasts of 35. Current sales, six-month sales expectations, and buyer traffic each gained three points (to 40, 45, and 25, respectively). Builders cutting prices fell to 32% from 36%, though the average discount increased to 6% from 5%.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

· 0600 – UK Mar. Unemployment Rate / Employment Change
· 0600 – Uk Apr. Claimant Count Rate / Jobless Claims Change
· 1200 – US Fed’s Waller to speak
· 1215 – US Weekly ADP Employment Change for week ending May 2
· 1230 – Canada Apr. CPI
· 1400 – US Apr. Pending Home Sales
G-7 finance ministers and central bankers meet in Paris

Earnings this week

Tuesday: The Home Depot, Keysight Technologies
Wednesday: Nvidia, Analog Devices, TJX Companies, Lowe’s, Intuit, Tokio Marine Holdings, Target
Thursday: Walmart, Deere, Ross Stores

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The Dow rose 0.3% to 49,686.12, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.1% to 7,403.05 and the Nasdaq fell 0.5% to 26,090.73. Technology lagged as higher oil prices and elevated bond yields revived inflation concerns, and Nvidia fell 1.3% ahead of Wednesday’s earnings, the week’s main AI stress test. Regeneron dropped 9.8% after its melanoma drug trial failed to meet its main goal, while Seagate lost 6.9% after capacity comments raised questions about how fast storage supply can meet AI demand. Dominion rose 9.4% and NextEra fell 4.6% after their $66.8 billion all-stock utility deal.
Europe: The Stoxx 600 rose 0.5% to 610.17, the DAX gained 1.5% to 24,307.92, the FTSE 100 added 1.3% to 10,323.75, and the Euro Stoxx 50 advanced 0.4% to 5,849.00. Markets recovered from early weakness as reports of a possible temporary waiver on Iranian oil sanctions softened the inflation scare, although bond yields still kept investors awake without needing extra coffee. Deutsche Boerse rose 4.7% after TCI disclosed a 5.15% stake, while Shell gained 3.0% and Centrica added 4.1% as energy shares led in London. Investors now watch whether oil relief lasts.
Asia: Asian markets weakened as rising oil prices, higher bond yields and China growth concerns weighed on sentiment. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.0% to 60,815.95 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 1.1% to 25,675.18, while South Korea’s Kospi rebounded from a deep intraday selloff to close up 0.3% at 7,516.04. Samsung Electronics rose 3.9% after a court ruling limited strike disruption risks, and SK hynix gained 1.2% as chip buyers returned. Baidu beat quarterly estimates, with core AI-powered revenue rising 49% and passing half of general business revenue for the first time.

Volatility

Market volatility eased slightly on Monday, but investors are still navigating a market shaped by geopolitics, oil prices, and rising bond yields. The VIX closed at 17.82, down 3.3%, as crude oil prices retreated after President Trump paused a planned military strike on Iran and signalled renewed negotiations. That helped calm immediate inflation fears tied to energy markets, although underlying caution remained visible. Short-term volatility indicators were mixed, with the VIX1D falling sharply to 13.10 while the VIX9D rose to 16.86, suggesting investors remain more concerned about risks later this week than today’s session alone.
Bond yields are becoming an increasingly important driver for equities. The US 10-year Treasury yield held near 4.60%, while the 30-year yield remained above 5.1%, as investors worried that elevated oil prices could keep inflation pressures persistent and delay any meaningful easing from central banks. Attention now turns to Wednesday’s Fed minutes, UK and EU inflation data, Thursday’s US PMI releases, and Nvidia earnings, which remain a key sentiment test for the broader AI trade and technology sector.
SPX weekly options currently imply an expected move of roughly 104.5 points, or 1.41%, into Friday’s 22 May expiry. Meanwhile, today’s SPX options positioning continued to show a mild downside protection bias, with near-the-money puts trading slightly richer than comparable calls. That suggests investors are still hedging against short-term downside risk, although the positioning no longer reflects panic-style protection demand.

Digital Assets

Digital assets remained under pressure as rising bond yields and macro uncertainty continued to weigh on speculative assets. Bitcoin traded near USD 76,800, while Ethereum held around USD 2,130, both extending last week’s pullback despite progress in Washington on crypto regulation. Investors initially welcomed the US Senate Banking Committee’s approval of the Clarity Act, but enthusiasm faded as markets shifted their focus back to inflation risks, elevated oil prices, and the prospect of interest rates staying higher for longer.
Crypto-related equities and ETFs also weakened. IBIT fell 2.9% and ETHA dropped 4.5%, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly USD 448mn in net outflows on Monday, including approximately USD 63mn from IBIT. Ethereum ETFs also continued to see withdrawals. Outside Bitcoin and Ethereum, weakness remained broad but relatively orderly, with Solana trading near USD 85, XRP around USD 1.38, and Dogecoin near USD 0.18.
Interestingly, options activity in crypto-linked equities still carried a cautiously constructive tone. Miners and higher-beta names such as CIFR and IREN attracted upside positioning, while MSTR continued to see large long-dated call activity that looked more like stock-replacement exposure than speculative short-term trading. At the same time, continued demand for long-dated puts in names such as COIN and ETHA suggests investors are still maintaining protection against further downside rather than fully embracing risk again.

Commodities

Crude trades softer, with Brent holding near USD 110 after the President, at the request of several Gulf states, suspended a planned Tuesday attack, allowing what he described as “serious negotiations” to continue. No ships have reportedly left Iran’s main export terminal during the past 10 days, potentially increasing the prospects for a deal. Overall, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains only a fraction of pre-war levels, despite the waterway accounting for roughly one-fifth of global oil supply.
Gold continues to hold above support around USD 4,500, with the next key downside level being the 200-day moving average, last seen near USD 4,355. Traders remain focused on the Middle East crisis and the inflationary impact of sustained higher energy prices, which are pushing global inflation higher while forcing central banks to shift their focus toward potential rate hikes. This helps explain the current reaction function, where escalating tensions can weigh on gold through higher yields and a stronger dollar, while any credible path toward de-escalation or peace may ultimately support prices.

Fixed Income

US Treasury yields backed off the intraday cycle highs Monday, likely in part on crude oil prices likewise pulling back from their strong Monday rally, but had rebounded from lows early Tuesday. The benchmark US 2-year treasury yield trades near 4.06% early Tuesday after a 4.10% high. The benchmark 10-year trades 4.60% and the 30-year at 5.138%, just above Monday’s close at 5.12%, which is the highest daily close for the benchmark since 2007.
Japan’s government bonds remain under pressure, especially at the long end of the yield curve. The benchmark 30-year JGB rebounded over five basis points to trade near 4.15% in late Tokyo trading hours Tuesday, though still below the intraday spike in the yield on Monday above 4.2%. The benchmark 10-year JGB rose five basis points as well, eyeing the highest closing level since the late 90’s near 2.79%.

Currencies

The US dollar rally was pushed back Monday, perhaps in part on hopes that an Iran peace deal is attainable as crude oil prices dropped, but USD strength reasserted Tuesday as the focus on rising US treasury yields remains. EURUSD pushed lower to 1.1634 by early European hours Tuesday after a 1.1662 high in early Asian hours. USDJPY continued to edge back toward the Monday highs just above 159.00 as the market seems determined to test Japan’s Ministry of Finance once again on its will to intervene to prevent further JPY weakness.
Sterling rebounded sharply after the candidate widely seen as most likely to replace Keir Starmer as Labour leader and eventual Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, said that he had ruled out making any changes to the UK’s borrowing limits if he were to eventually lead the nation. This reversed much of the recent weakness in sterling versus the euro, as EURGBP plunged back to 0.8680 after trading as high as 0.8730 Monday. GBPUSD rebounded as high as 1.3450 – a key line of resistance – before a USD rebound Tuesday pushed the rate back toward 1.3400.
The Australian dollar trades heavily, perhaps in part on the RBA minutes showing the board’s desire to wait and see the impact of the recent hiking regime on households before any further consideration of policy tightening , but perhaps as well on weakness in commodity prices. AUDUSD trades 0.7127 early Tuesday after a high of 0.7184 Monday and is nearing an important support, the 0.7102 low of the range since mid-April.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Advanced orders Europe Employment United States United Kingdom European Union (EU) XAUUSD USD EURUSD USDJPY Energy (Sector) Technology S P 500 index Quick Take Weekly Newsletter

Berkshire's Q1 portfolio shifts: Buffett's principles, Abel's playbook

Tue, 19 May 2026 04:30:00 Z

Key points:

Berkshire’s Q1 2026 13F showed a more active and focused portfolio, with a major increase in Alphabet, new exposure to Delta Air Lines, and exits from several large names including Amazon, UnitedHealth, Visa and Mastercard.
The early Abel playbook does not look like a rejection of Buffett’s principles. It looks more like an update: value investing applied to a market where technology platforms now carry the cash flow, scale and moat characteristics that old-economy franchises once dominated.
For investors, the message is not to copy the filing. It is to understand the signal: Big Tech is becoming core market infrastructure, but the next phase of the AI trade will likely reward selectivity, cash-flow discipline and valuation awareness.

Key Berkshire changes in Q1 2026

Berkshire Hathaway’s latest 13F was especially closely watched because it was the first major quarterly filing under Greg Abel’s leadership. Berkshire remains Berkshire: concentrated, patient and cash-flow focused. But the latest reshuffle also suggests that the portfolio may be adapting to a market where technology is no longer just a growth sector — it is part of the economy’s operating system.

Additions and increases

Holding	Ticker	Approx. value added / position value	% change	Why it matters
Alphabet	GOOGL / GOOG	Position increased to around $16.6bn	More than tripled	The most important signal. Berkshire appears more willing to own dominant digital platforms when the moat, cash flow and valuation case align.
Delta Air Lines	DAL	New position of around $2.65bn	New holding	Suggests selective interest in travel and consumer resilience, although airlines remain exposed to fuel prices and economic slowdowns.
Lennar	LEN / LEN.B	Added roughly $270mn, taking the position to around $897mn	Class A +43%; Class B +31%	Adds a housing-cycle angle to the portfolio. It suggests Berkshire is still willing to own cyclical, rate-sensitive businesses when valuations look attractive.
Macy’s	M	New position of around $55mn	New holding	Small in Berkshire terms, but notable as a selective consumer/retail bet. The size suggests it is more of a watch item than a major portfolio signal.
New York Times	NYT	Stake more than doubled	More than doubled	A smaller but interesting signal around subscription-based media and durable consumer relationships.
Overall portfolio	—	U.S.-listed equity portfolio value fell to around $263bn, from around $274bn at end-2025	—	Berkshire was still a net seller of equities, so this was not a broad risk-on shift. It was a reshuffle, not a buying spree.

Complete exits: biggest names first

Berkshire’s full exits were broad, but the largest ones deserve the most attention. The exit from Visa and Mastercard stands out because both have historically been viewed as high-quality compounders. The exit from UnitedHealth adds to the sense of portfolio clean-up, while Amazon is smaller in dollar terms but symbolically important given the shift toward Alphabet.

Holding	Ticker	Approx. value exited	% change	Why it matters
Visa	V	$2.71bn	-100%	Biggest full exit; notable because of Visa’s quality and payments moat.
Mastercard	MA	$2.14bn	-100%	Major payments exit alongside Visa.
UnitedHealth Group	UNH	$1.50bn	-100%	Large healthcare exit amid stock-specific and regulatory overhangs.
Domino’s Pizza	DPZ	$1.32bn	-100%	One of the biggest consumer exits.
Aon	AON	$1.22bn	-100%	Large exit from insurance and professional services exposure.
Pool Corp	POOL	$668mn	-100%	Meaningful full exit from a cyclical consumer/housing-linked business.
Amazon	AMZN	$505mn	-100%	Smaller by Berkshire standards, but symbolically important given the Big Tech angle.
HEICO	HEIA	$301mn	-100%	Exit from aerospace-linked exposure.
Liberty Formula One	FWONK	$275mn	-100%	Full exit from a tracking-stock/media exposure.
Charter Communications	CHTR	$234mn	-100%	Full exit from cable and connectivity exposure.
Lamar Advertising	LAMR	$152mn	-100%	Full exit from advertising and outdoor media exposure.
Allegion	ALLE	$119mn	-100%	Full exit from security products exposure.
Liberty Latin America C	LILA	$19mn	-100%	Smaller full exit.
Diageo	DEO	$18mn	-100%	Small position fully exited.
Liberty Latin America A	LILAK	$11mn	-100%	Smaller full exit.
Atlanta Braves Holdings	BATRK	$5mn	-100%	Small but complete exit.

Reductions, not exits

These trims are also important, but they should be read differently from the full exits. Chevron was the biggest reduction by value, but it remained a major Berkshire holding. Constellation Brands was nearly eliminated, but not fully exited.

Holding	Ticker	Approx. value reduced	% change	Why it matters
Chevron	CVX	$8.23bn	-35.17%	Biggest reduction by value, but still a top holding. Not necessarily a bearish oil call.
Constellation Brands	STZ	$1.79bn	-95.13%	Near-exit, but not a full exit.
Nucor	NUE	$415mn	-39.03%	Sharp reduction in steel and industrial exposure.
DaVita	DVA	$160mn	-4.05%	Modest trim.
Bank of America	BAC	$156mn	-0.71%	Small trim only; not a major signal by itself.
Liberty Live Holdings	LLYVK	$29mn	-3.03%	Small trim only.

The headline is not that Berkshire has suddenly become a technology fund. Apple, American Express, Coca-Cola, Bank of America and Chevron still matter deeply to the portfolio. But the Alphabet move is hard to ignore. It suggests Berkshire may now be more comfortable treating some mega-cap technology companies as modern value stocks: dominant, cash-rich, highly profitable and strategically embedded in the global economy.

The new Abel playbook: Buffett principles, updated for an AI economy

The risk with every Berkshire 13F is overinterpretation. The filing does not tell us which individual manager made each decision, why a position was changed, or whether the position still exists today. But the scale and direction of the Q1 changes still offer a useful lens.

This does not look like a clean break from Buffett. It looks more like an evolution of the Berkshire toolkit.

1. Value investing is moving where the cash flows are

For decades, classic value investing was associated with banks, consumer staples, insurance, railroads, energy and industrial businesses. But the market has changed. Some of the strongest balance sheets and most durable cash flows now sit inside mega-cap technology.

Alphabet, Microsoft, Apple and other platform companies are not just “growth stocks” anymore. They have recurring revenues, global scale, high margins, enormous cash generation and the ability to fund major investment cycles internally. That gives them some defensive qualities even when valuations look demanding.

The Abel-era message may be this: value is not defined by sector. It is defined by durability of cash flows, competitive advantage and price paid.

2. Big Tech is becoming defensive growth

The latest 13Fs across major investors point to a broader shift. Big Tech is increasingly being treated not only as a source of growth, but also as a form of balance-sheet quality in an uncertain macro environment.

This matters because investors are dealing with higher yields, geopolitical shocks, inflation risks and uneven growth. In that environment, companies with net cash, pricing power, recurring revenues and high returns on capital naturally become more attractive.

That does not mean Big Tech is risk-free. It means the strongest names are now being used by investors as a blend of growth exposure and quality exposure.

3. AI exposure is becoming more selective

The AI trade is not over, but it is maturing.

The market is moving away from simply rewarding any company with an AI narrative. Investors are becoming more focused on the difference between AI spend, AI revenue and AI margins.

That is why the split across major investors matters. Some are adding Alphabet. Some are adding Microsoft. Others are rotating between the same mega-cap names. The message is that the AI theme remains powerful, but the winners may become more stock-specific.

Investors may need to ask:

Who is spending heavily on AI?
Who can monetise AI through existing customer relationships?
Who has the balance sheet to fund the capex cycle?
Who is already priced for perfection?
Where is the market still underestimating long-term cash flow?

4. Portfolio concentration is rising, but retail investors should be careful

Berkshire’s portfolio became more focused in Q1. That fits a wider market pattern: many leading investors are concentrating around fewer, higher-conviction franchises.

But this is not a signal for everyday investors to run concentrated portfolios blindly. Berkshire has permanent capital, deep research resources and the ability to absorb volatility that most investors do not.

The more useful lesson is that diversification should not mean owning everything equally. In a market driven by earnings dispersion, quality dispersion and AI dispersion, investors may want to be more thoughtful about what each holding is doing in the portfolio.

What it means for investors

1. Do not copy 13Fs blindly

13Fs are useful, but they are backward-looking. They show what large investors owned at quarter-end, not necessarily what they own today. They also do not show the full portfolio picture, including shorts, derivatives or non-U.S. holdings.

The value of 13Fs is not in copying trades. It is in understanding how sophisticated investors are thinking about themes, valuation and risk.

2. The definition of “value” is changing

The Berkshire-Alphabet move is a reminder that value investing does not have to mean avoiding technology. In today’s market, some of the best cash-flow machines are technology platforms.

The important distinction is between buying technology because it is fashionable and buying technology because the business model is durable. Berkshire’s move looks closer to the second category.

3. Big Tech remains central, but selectivity is rising

The latest filings reinforce that mega-cap technology remains a core part of institutional portfolios. But they also show rotation within the group.

That means investors should avoid treating Big Tech as one single trade. Alphabet, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Meta and Nvidia all sit inside the technology ecosystem, but their risk drivers are different: advertising, cloud, devices, enterprise software, AI infrastructure, chips, capex and regulation.

The next phase of the AI trade may be less about owning the broad story and more about identifying where AI investment converts into revenue, margin resilience and free cash flow.

4. Quality matters more when yields are high

Higher bond yields raise the bar for equities. That makes companies with weak balance sheets, distant profits or uncertain cash flows more vulnerable.

This is why many large investors remain drawn to businesses with pricing power, scale and high returns on capital. In a world where the cost of capital is no longer zero, quality is not a luxury. It is a risk-management tool.

5. The old economy has not disappeared

Berkshire still owns large positions in financials, consumer franchises and energy. The Delta purchase and Chevron trim also show that the portfolio is not simply rotating into technology.

The better interpretation is that Berkshire is building a portfolio that spans both old and new economy cash flows. That may be an important lesson for investors: AI can be a core theme, but it does not remove the need for diversification across sectors, economic cycles and risk drivers.

Bottom line

The latest 13F season sends a clear message: even the most valuation-conscious investors are making room for mega-cap technology when the business quality is strong enough.

Berkshire’s larger Alphabet stake is not necessarily a call to chase AI. It is a signal that the line between value and growth has blurred. In the Abel era, Berkshire may still be following the same discipline — buy durable businesses at sensible prices — but the opportunity set now includes digital platforms that Buffett’s earlier playbook never fully embraced.

For investors, the takeaway is simple: Big Tech remains important, AI still has structural legs, but selectivity is becoming crucial. The winners in the next phase may not be those with the loudest AI story, but those that can turn AI spending into durable cash flow.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

Charu Chanana

Chief Investment Strategist

Saxo

Topics: Equities Berkshire Hathaway Inc. B Berkshire Hathaway Berkshire Hathaway Visa Inc Coca Cola Apple Apple Inc. Amazon Facebook Inc ContextLogic Adobe Alphabet NVIDIA Corporation Netflix The Coca-cola Coca-Cola Co. Alphabet Inc.

The space economy is coming down to Earth

Mon, 18 May 2026 12:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Space is becoming infrastructure, not just exploration, and a possible SpaceX IPO could draw more attention to the theme.
Growth is spreading beyond rockets into satellites, defence, connectivity, data and the systems that make space useful.
A shortlist helps investors map the opportunity without chasing every rocket launch or headline.

Space used to be easy to file under “science fiction, rockets and very expensive smoke.” That is changing. The space economy is becoming part of everyday infrastructure, from internet connections and weather data to defence, farming, shipping and navigation.

This matters now because the sector is no longer just about who can launch the most impressive rocket. It is about who can turn orbit into repeatable revenue. The global space economy reached USD 613 billion in 2024, according to Space Foundation, while the Satellite Industry Association reported fresh growth across satellite broadband, launches and ground equipment in 2025.

According to several news outlets, SpaceX is preparing for a possible initial public offering (IPO), with a potential Nasdaq listing as early as June 2026. Nothing is certain until it happens, and private-company IPO plans can change faster than a launch window in bad weather. But the signal matters. A SpaceX listing would likely bring more investor attention to the wider space economy, from satellites and launch systems to connectivity, defence and ground infrastructure.

For investors who want to understand how IPOs work before any potential SpaceX listing, Saxo’s guide to investing in IPO stocks offers a useful starting point: how the process works, what to watch, and why newly listed companies can be exciting but risky.

That is the reason behind Saxo’s new space economy shortlist. It is not a prediction machine, and it is not a list of “buy this now before Mars gets crowded.” It is a map. The goal is to help investors understand where listed companies sit across the value chain, from satellite operators to defence firms and the less glamorous suppliers that make the whole system work.

The useful space economy is not always the shiny bit

The public story of space often starts with rockets. Fair enough. Rockets are dramatic, loud and hard to ignore. But for investors, the more useful story often starts after launch.

Satellites help planes stay connected, ships navigate, farmers monitor crops, insurers assess damage, governments secure communications and consumers use location services without thinking about them. Space is quietly becoming a utility layer for the modern economy. Not quite electricity, but closer to “useful plumbing in the sky” than many people realise.

That is why the investment opportunity is broader than pure space companies. Some firms operate satellites. Some build rockets or spacecraft. Others provide aerospace systems, defence technology, sensors, chips, antennas, ground stations, software or connectivity services.

The shortlist groups this world into practical buckets: launch and space operators, satellite, data and space intelligence companies, defence and aerospace leaders, and space picks and shovels, connectivity and communications. The last bucket may sound less romantic, but investing is not a romance contest. Often, the picks and shovels are where the steadier business models live.

Why the theme is timely

The timing is not only about long-term forecasts. It is also about what is happening now.

Satellite broadband is growing quickly as companies try to connect remote areas, aircraft, ships and military users. The Satellite Industry Association said global satellite broadband subscribers rose strongly in 2025, while satellite services revenue reached USD 105 billion. That shows the sector is moving from “interesting technology” to customer demand.

In Europe, the story has an extra layer: sovereignty. The European Union’s IRIS2 programme aims to provide secure satellite communications for governments, businesses and citizens. In plain English, Europe wants more control over critical communications infrastructure. Recent updates from SES and Eutelsat show that demand is not only about consumer internet. It is also about aviation, military, maritime and secure government use.

For investors, this changes the lens. Space is not one single theme. It overlaps with defence, telecoms, transport, cybersecurity, industrial supply chains and artificial intelligence. That creates both opportunity and confusion. A shortlist helps cut through the fog, which is helpful because fog is not an investment process.

What investors can actually watch

The most important question is not whether space is exciting. It is whether companies can earn attractive returns from it.

That means watching contracts, backlog, margins and capital spending. Backlog is work already contracted but not yet delivered. It can show whether demand is becoming visible. Margins show whether growth is profitable, not just impressive in a slide deck. Capital spending matters because space infrastructure is expensive, and expensive dreams can still send invoices.

Investors can also watch customer mix. Revenue from governments, airlines, defence agencies, telecom operators and maritime clients may be more durable than revenue built only on speculative future demand. The best signal is not a big vision statement. It is a signed customer paying real money. Revolutionary, almost suspiciously practical.

The shortlist can help here by separating the theme into different business models. A satellite operator faces different risks from a defence contractor. A chip supplier has different drivers from a launch company. A data specialist depends on different customers from an aircraft connectivity provider. One theme, many moving parts.

Risks: orbit is useful, but gravity still exists

The first risk is valuation. Exciting themes often attract high expectations. When expectations rise faster than earnings, share prices can become fragile. Investors should watch whether companies are still delivering revenue growth, cash flow and margins, not only attractive stories.

The second risk is execution. Space projects face delays, technical problems, regulation and heavy upfront costs. Launch schedules can slip. Satellites can fail. Government budgets can shift. In this sector, patience is useful, but blind patience is just a subscription to disappointment.

The third risk is competition. Starlink has changed the satellite-connectivity market, and other players are trying to catch up. Some listed companies may benefit from the growth of the ecosystem, while others may see pricing pressure or older businesses decline. Eutelsat’s recent shift away from legacy video and towards low Earth orbit connectivity is a good example of how the industry is changing in real time.

Investor playbook

Use the shortlist as a map of the value chain, not as a shopping list.
Compare business models: operators, suppliers, defence firms and data companies carry different risks.
Watch contracts, backlog, margins and capital spending before reacting to big headlines.
Keep position size and diversification in mind, because theme investing can get crowded quickly.

The final orbit

Space is becoming less about escaping Earth and more about making Earth work better. That is the real investment story. The most useful parts of the space economy sit behind ordinary activities: flying, shipping, mapping, connecting, defending and measuring.

The new Saxo space economy shortlist is designed to make that hidden infrastructure easier to understand. It does not remove risk, and it does not predict the next winner. It gives investors a clearer map of the companies building, operating and enabling the space economy. In a theme full of rockets, that map may be the most grounded tool in the room.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles

Global bond yields are the captain now.

Mon, 18 May 2026 09:30:00 Z

Bond markets are setting the agenda.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.

Links

- Bloomberg article says power prices are spiraling higher in the US' largest electric grid due to data center demand
- FTAlphaville says that China is not Japan, but "its real estate market has been doing a darn good impression."
- Mike Green was on Macrovoices, talking passive investing, lack of inflation risks and potential for Fed cuts surprisingly soon.

Questions and comments, please!

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

COT update: Metals bought, dollar sold ahead of US inflation surprise

Mon, 18 May 2026 09:00:00 Z

Our weekly Commitment of Traders update returns highlighting future positions and changes made by hedge funds and other speculators across commodities and forex during the week to last Tuesday, 12 May 2026

Key points:

Our weekly Commitment of Traders update highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across forex and commodities during the week ending Tuesday, 12 May 2026.
In FX, several poorly timed trades defined the reporting week, when the USD initially weakened further before rebounding sharply to a five-week high
Crude oil net length dropped to a nine-week low, with rising short positions indicating traders are becoming less willing to add bullish exposure despite persistent supply concerns and elevated prices
Strong buying in silver and copper lifted positioning sharply, but the speed of the subsequent reversal highlighted how technical and momentum-led participation remains vulnerable to changing macro conditions.

Forex:

In FX, several poorly timed trades defined the week through last Tuesday, when the USD initially weakened further before rebounding sharply to a five-week high. The reversal followed inflation reports showing sharp increases in both consumer and producer prices, with April readings rising at the fastest pace in several years. This helped trigger the worst weekly bond market selloff in a year, as the war-driven price shock raised concerns that central banks, including the Fed, may ultimately be forced to raise interest rates to contain inflationary pressures. In addition, the dollar’s post-reporting-week rally received further support from rising crude oil prices after the US-China summit failed to deliver any meaningful progress toward ending the Iran conflict.

Ahead of these risk-off developments, which ultimately supported the dollar, speculators had cut their USD longs by another third to just USD 5 billion, down from USD 17.6 billion five weeks earlier. Several of the major positioning shifts proved poorly timed, led by a 25% increase in the EUR long, a one-third reduction in the GBP short, and an AUD long reaching a fresh 13-year high ahead of Friday’s sharp decline. One move speculators did get right was turning renewed sellers of JPY after the recent BOJ intervention scare failed to support the yen, instead allowing USDJPY to move back toward 160.

Non-commercial IMM forex futures position and the Dollar Index - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Commodities

The BCOM Index gained 1.5% during the reporting week before US inflation-led market turmoil triggered end-of-week volatility across bond yields, the dollar, and not least key commodities, particularly recently strong-performing investment and industrial metals. During the reporting week, relatively stable, yet elevated, energy prices initially supported a strong but ultimately temporary rally across metals, led by the semi-industrial precious metals silver and platinum, alongside copper. Elsewhere, strength in grains was driven by surging wheat prices following weather and supply concerns, while softs continued to benefit from demand for sugar and cotton due to their close link to rising fuel prices and biofuel-related demand dynamics. Livestock moved lower, led by weakness in cattle futures following a period of strong gains.

Key points from the COT report:

• Crude oil: The combined net long fell by 39k to 441k contracts, a nine-week low. After reaching a four-year high of 554k contracts during the week ending 20 March, the position has since declined by 112k contracts, with roughly two-thirds of the reduction driven by rising gross short positions. This suggests that despite ongoing supply concerns and elevated prices, some traders have become increasingly reluctant to chase additional upside at current levels.

• Silver: Net length jumped 48% to 16.2k contracts after the break above USD 82.7 triggered fresh momentum and technical buying from funds. Given that the rally appeared to be driven more by technical developments than a material shift in fundamentals, these flows also help explain the aggressive end-of-week sell-off after prices slipped back below USD 83 amid inflation-driven pressure on yields, the dollar, and rate expectations. The speed of the reversal once technical support failed highlights the continued tactical nature of leveraged participation.

• HG copper: Seven consecutive weeks of buying lifted the net long close to a one-year high of 73.5k contracts. However, with much of the recent buying occurring above USD 6.30, a level prices fell back below on Friday, some position squaring may have been triggered. The recent build-up also leaves copper vulnerable to periods of liquidation should macro sentiment temporarily outweigh still supportive longer-term fundamentals.

• Corn: Profit-taking emerged despite prices ending the reporting week largely unchanged, potentially reflecting a market struggling to identify a fresh directional catalyst following recent volatility across agricultural markets.

• CBOT wheat: Hedge funds sold into the WASDE-led 8% rally, primarily through fresh short selling, highlighting a long-standing reluctance among leveraged funds to establish long positions in a market burdened by elevated contango. While the annualized roll headwind has eased from around 12%, it still remains elevated near 8.7%, reducing the attractiveness of maintaining outright long exposure with further signs of a tightening supply needed to change that behavior.

• Cotton: Continued buying since the start of the Middle East conflict lifted the net long to a fresh two-year high of 59.6k contracts. In addition to concerns around supply and production costs, cotton has continued to draw support from its indirect relationship with energy prices given competition with synthetic oil-based fibres.

Managed money positions in key commodities futures covering the week to 12 May, 2026

Energy

Precious and industrial metals

Key agriculture commodities

What is the Commitments of Traders report?

The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class.

Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and other
Financials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and other
Forex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators)

The main reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of speculators, such as hedge funds and trend-following CTA's are:

They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged
This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments
It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming

Do note that this group tends to anticipate, accelerate, and amplify price changes that have been set in motion by fundamentals. Being followers of momentum, this strategy often sees this group of traders buy into strength and sell into weakness, meaning that they are often found holding the biggest long near the peak of a cycle or the biggest short position ahead of a through in the market.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Related articles/content
13 May 2026: Grains surge as USDA wheat shock meets biofuel-driven soy demand 12 May 2026: Silver breaks higher as investors rediscover its dual appeal 11 May 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 5 May 2026 8 May 2026: Gold holds firm as central banks and investors look beyond price 3 May 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 28 April 2026 1 May 2026: Commodities rally broadens in April as Middle East disruption tightens global supply chains 30 April 2026: Gold rises with oil as geopolitical risk overwhelms rate headwinds 29 April 2026: Crude rally extends as Strait disruption continues OPECs role tested after UAE exit 28 April 2026: Precious metals face near-term pressure from oil-driven inflation 27 April 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 21 April 2026 24 April 2026: Commodities weekly From fuel shortages to food risks as Hormuz remains shut 22 April 2026: Severe supply disruption meets rising demand destruction as Hormuz closure persists 20 April 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 14 April 2026 14 April 2026: Precious metals rebuild as macro tailwinds return but gold awaits breakout confirmation 13 April 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to April 7 2026 10 April 2026: Commodities weekly Energy slumps but physical oil stress keeps the market on edge 9 April 2026: Crude rebounds toward USD 100 as Hormuz bottlenecks keep physical market tight 8 April 2026: Gold correction meets macro reset as ceasefire reverses key headwinds 7 April 2026: Europe's gas market shifts from stress to relief but the real test still lies ahead 7 April 2026: WTI above Brent a curve distortion not a benchmark inversion 7 April 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 31 March 2026 1 April 2026: Commodities monthly Energy surge and second-round effects dominate as metals correct Educational resources: A short guide to trading crude oil The basics of trading wheat online A short guide to trading gold A short guide to trading copper A short guide to trading silver Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment? Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

Related articles/content

13 May 2026: Grains surge as USDA wheat shock meets biofuel-driven soy demand
12 May 2026: Silver breaks higher as investors rediscover its dual appeal
11 May 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 5 May 2026
8 May 2026: Gold holds firm as central banks and investors look beyond price
3 May 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 28 April 2026
1 May 2026: Commodities rally broadens in April as Middle East disruption tightens global supply chains
30 April 2026: Gold rises with oil as geopolitical risk overwhelms rate headwinds
29 April 2026: Crude rally extends as Strait disruption continues OPECs role tested after UAE exit
28 April 2026: Precious metals face near-term pressure from oil-driven inflation
27 April 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 21 April 2026
24 April 2026: Commodities weekly From fuel shortages to food risks as Hormuz remains shut
22 April 2026: Severe supply disruption meets rising demand destruction as Hormuz closure persists
20 April 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 14 April 2026
14 April 2026: Precious metals rebuild as macro tailwinds return but gold awaits breakout confirmation
13 April 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to April 7 2026
10 April 2026: Commodities weekly Energy slumps but physical oil stress keeps the market on edge
9 April 2026: Crude rebounds toward USD 100 as Hormuz bottlenecks keep physical market tight
8 April 2026: Gold correction meets macro reset as ceasefire reverses key headwinds
7 April 2026: Europe's gas market shifts from stress to relief but the real test still lies ahead
7 April 2026: WTI above Brent a curve distortion not a benchmark inversion
7 April 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 31 March 2026
1 April 2026: Commodities monthly Energy surge and second-round effects dominate as metals correct

Educational resources:
A short guide to trading crude oil
The basics of trading wheat online
A short guide to trading gold
A short guide to trading copper
A short guide to trading silver
Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?

Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

More from the author
Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on Twitter and BlueSky social media platforms

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Commodities COT Commodities Crude Oil Natural Gas Gold Silver Copper Platinum Corn Sugar Coffee Gasoline Palladium Wheat Cocoa Cotton Cattle Energy (Sector) Forex COT FX EURUSD USDJPY AUDUSD USDCAD USDCHF GBPUSD NZDUSD Forex Trump Version 2 - Traders CZ ESMA disclaimer

The FX Trader: Yields are in driver's seat, taking risk down and USD up.

Mon, 18 May 2026 07:55:00 Z

USD spikes with long US treasury yields.

The latest

Long bond yield spike sends USD higher, raises danger of risk-off. The USD rallied sharply Friday in a technically decisive move, as EURUSD was pushed back below 1.1650, USDJPY ramped above 158.00 and GBPUSD plunged through 1.3450. The key one-two punch driving this rally was the fresh aggravated rise in crude oil prices sending key global yield benchmarks over the edge on inflation concerns and on the general notion that central banks - led by the Fed and the BoJ - will do little to tighten policy to counter inflationary risks. The long-quiet US treasury market is finally making waves after having long shown reluctant contagion from oil prices. The benchmark US 10-year treasury yield broke above the 4.50% level for the first time in almost a year, while the 30-year benchmark rose above the psychologically important 5.00% level. The latter benchmark traded at nearly 5.15% early Monday, just a few basis points shy of the highest levels of 2023, when the highest yield since 2007 was established.

Japan's government bonds were already under significant pressure recently, but the action late last week has sent the longest yields there into a virtual melt-up, with the 10-year JGB benchmark up 23 basis points last week and adding several more basis points Monday to trade at 2.71%, its' highest since the late 1990's. The benchmark 30-year JGB yield was up 30 basis points last week, a new record high just over 4%, and saw almost disorderly further pressure Monday.

Takeaway: while global equity markets have recently done a stunning job of posting a comeback from weak sentiment triggered by the war in Iran, spiking global yields nonetheless dramatically raise the risk of risk-off across markets, which would likely be supportive of a stronger USD and perhaps CHF, while pro-cyclical currencies like the G10 smalls (perhaps ex NOK) and EM currencies would be under pressure. Sterling is also at risk as noted below. Still, at some point, we should be on the lookout for policy initiatives to ease the pressure on bond markets.

Sterling – the timing of political uncertainty couldn’t be worse. Sterling is suffering here on the political uncertainty surrounding the identity of whoever might replace PM Starmer and whether whoever does will prioritize fiscal stability to the same degree. UK 10-year and 30-year gilt yields vaulted to new post-GFC highs Friday as sterling sold off, taking EURGBP back above 0.8700 last week and GBPUSD down well below the prior 1.3450 range low and almost to 1.3300.

Takeaway: Any widespread further aggravation of weak global risk sentiment here would put sterling at further risk. The latest employment and claims data for the UK are up tomorrow and CPI up on Wednesday.

Fractious Fed as we await Fed Chair Warsh. The market knows that incoming Fed Chair Warsh, whose nomination was formally approved last week, will be under enormous political pressure from President Trump to at least not hike rates. Perhaps Trump’s advisors will make it clear to the president that the Fed simply can’t cut rates with the current backdrop and that his focus now needs to be on the bond market. Warsh is not yet the sitting Fed Chair, as his nomination approval happened too late for him to take over on Friday, but this will presumably happen in the coming days (Powell will be temporary Fed Chair until Warsh can formally assume the position, as Powell’s term officially ended last Friday).

Takeaway: The market will be hungry for rhetorical signals from the new Chair, while the range of views among Fed voters and board members are many, as seen in the recent Fed decision where there was both dovish and hawkish dissent. One thing Warsh has signalled and would do well to accomplish, is to dismantle the excesses of the “forward guidance” regime created by Ben Bernanke, which create all kinds of havoc with communication via the “dot plot” and projections etc. This week is quiet on the US macro data front.

Chart focus: EURUSD
EURUSD sold off through important range support in the 1.1650 area, but the price action is still buried in a wide range, with the 1.1580 area 61.8% retracement perhaps more important in determining whether the pair is set for a full collapse back into the low 1.1400’s and perhaps beyond. Bulls would want a quick snap-back rally and close above 1.1700 to suggest that this sell-off is over. Before, we had emphasized that the 1.1825-50 area as the last key resistance zone for the massive bearish rejection wave from the 1.20+ top to the 1.1411 low.

Source: Saxo

FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.
Note: If unfamiliar with the FX board, please see a video tutorial for understanding and using the FX Board.

The US dollar has managed a peppy turnaround, but this has merely neutralized the former downtrend thus far, not yet indicating that the greenback is fully in a new uptrend – let’s see where this rally takes us. Elsewhere, overall trend readings are muted, save for the strong NOK and the very weak Swedish krona which is not enjoying the European growth concerns and dovish Riksbank, while AUD is still quite positive, though it has lost considerable altitude.

Table: NEW FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.

EURUSD is set for a flip to a negative trend today according to the Board, though note our reservations on the status of the pair in the chart above. Elsewhere, USDCAD is likewise trying to flip positive, and GBPUSD flipped to a downtrend on the close on Friday after its huge plunge on the combination of USD strength and sterling weakness. EURGBP has oscillated in a range for months and its latest oscillation is to the upside – let’s see if it actually develops into a real trend.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

John J. Hardy

Global Head of Macro Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Forex Highlighted articles Trump Version 2 - Traders FR US Actualites et Analyses EURUSD USDJPY UKMustRead

What Stocks Were Saxo Clients Buying and Selling Last Week?

Mon, 18 May 2026 07:55:00 Z

Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.

The most bought and sold stocks and ETFs last week.

Clients were buying into US tech names with chipmakers, crypto and quantum computing among the themes that attracted the most attention.

Nvidia and Micron were the most actively traded by clients and saw strong bid with 61% and 59% net buys respectively.

Intel took the third most traded spot as the stock plunged 17%, giving back some of its 176% YTD. Trades were split evenly 50/50 between buys and sells.

Further down we saw the likes of IonQ (67% buys), MARA (78% buys) and Strategy (72% buys) prove that quantum computing and cryptocurrency stocks remain in focus.

Strong buying interest in RocketLab and AST SpaceMobile underscored the huge investor interest in the growing space tech economy ahead of the expected SpaceX IPO.

Among UK shares Lloyds, Rolls-Royce and BAE Systems were the most actively traded names.

In the ETF space the VanEck Semiconductors UCITS ETF attracted 81% and was the most actively bought fund, while the iShares MSCI Global Semiconductors UCITS ETF attracted 91% net buys to be the most popular stock or fund last week among our most actively traded securities.

Here’s a list of our top 30 most traded stocks and ETFs of the last week with the percentage of buys.

Top Stocks (Most Traded)	Buy%
NVIDIA Corp.	61%
Micron Technology Inc.	59%
Intel Corp.	50%
Microsoft Corp.	57%
Tesla Inc.	44%
Advanced Micro Devices Inc.	53%
Alphabet Inc. Class A	53%
Amazon.com Inc.	47%
IonQ Inc.	67%
IREN Ltd.	62%
VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF	81%
Apple Inc.	52%
Meta Platforms Inc.	58%
Palantir Technologies Inc.	73%
SanDisk Corp	61%
Strategy Inc.	72%
Nebius Group NV	57%
Rocket Lab Corporation	56%
ServiceNow Inc.	67%
Broadcom Inc.	56%
CoreWeave Inc.	62%
iShares Core MSCI World UCITS ETF	77%
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd - ADR	72%
SoFi Technologies Inc	61%
ASML Holding NV	59%
AST SpaceMobile Inc.	70%
Coinbase Global Inc	59%
Qualcomm Inc.	54%
Marvell Technology Inc.	55%
CrowdStrike Holdings Inc.	26%

Most Popular - strongest buy % among our top 50 traded stocks and ETFs of the last week.

Top Stocks (Most Popular)	Buy%
iShares MSCI Global Semiconductors UCITS ETF	91%
VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF	81%
Vanguard FTSE 100 UCITS ETF	81%
Vanguard S&P 500AccUCITS ETF	79%
MARA Holdings Inc.	78%
iShares Core MSCI World UCITS ETF	77%
Palantir Technologies Inc.	73%
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd - ADR	72%
Strategy Inc.	72%
AST SpaceMobile Inc.	70%

Read our client and market trends for April to see what other Saxo clients were doing last month and what some of the big market moves were.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities United Kingdom Highlighted articles UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer FR US Actualites et Analyses Trump Version 2 - Investors Volatility investor TagFeed En hurtig tanke

Nvidia earnings: trading the 8% move the options market is pricing

Mon, 18 May 2026 07:00:00 Z

Nvidia reports earnings on 20 May, and the options market is already pricing a move of around 8% in either direction. That number matters more than whether Nvidia beats or misses. It tells you how much movement is already baked into options prices, and whether the premium you pay reflects that risk. In this case study, we walk through three defined-risk strategies ...

Nvidia earnings: trading the 8% move the options market is pricing

How bullish, neutral and bearish traders can use defined-risk option spreads around one of the market’s biggest earnings events

Key takeaways

Nvidia reports earnings on 20 May after the US market close, and the options market is already pricing a large post-earnings move.
Based on the May 22 expiry option chain, the market is currently implying an approximate move of around 8% in either direction.
Traders often use the expected move as a framework for selecting strikes and structuring trades.
Implied volatility is elevated into the event, which means post-earnings IV crush can significantly impact option prices.
This article explores three educational example strategies based on three different outlooks: bullish, neutral and bearish.

Nvidia earnings are no longer just another company update. The company has become one of the central pillars of the AI infrastructure trade, meaning its results often influence sentiment across semiconductors, mega-cap technology stocks and the broader Nasdaq.

The latest official results explain why expectations remain high. Nvidia’s Q4 FY26 revenue rose 73% year-on-year to USD 68.1 billion, while Data Center revenue rose 75% to USD 62.3 billion. Management also guided for Q1 FY27 revenue of approximately USD 78.0 billion, plus or minus 2%.
For traders, however, the key question is often not simply whether Nvidia beats or misses expectations.

The more important question is whether the stock moves more or less than what the options market is already pricing in.

What is the expected move?

One of the simplest ways traders estimate the market’s implied post-earnings move is by looking at the at-the-money straddle. This involves adding together the premium of the at-the-money call and put for the expiry that captures the earnings event. In the May 22 expiry option chain, the at-the-money 235 call was trading around USD 9.90, while the 235 put traded around USD 8.90.

That produces the following estimate:
Expected move ≈ at-the-money call premium + at-the-money put premium
USD 9.90 + USD 8.90 = USD 18.80

With Nvidia trading around USD 235.74 at the time of observation, the options market was therefore pricing an approximate move of about 8% in either direction. This creates a rough implied range between approximately USD 217 and USD 255.

Importantly, this is not a prediction.

The stock can still move far more or far less than this range. The expected move is simply a reflection of how much movement the options market is pricing into the selected expiry.
For many traders, however, it becomes a useful framework for selecting strikes and comparing possible strategies.

Traders often estimate the expected move using the at-the-money straddle Source: SaxoTrader

Why implied volatility matters around earnings

The Nvidia options market is currently pricing elevated implied volatility into the earnings release. That is visible in the implied volatility forward curve, where near-dated expiries trade with significantly higher implied volatility than longer-dated expiries. This happens because traders are willing to pay more for options that capture the earnings event.

Once the earnings announcement has passed, that event premium often disappears quickly. This phenomenon is commonly called the “IV crush”. For long premium strategies such as call spreads and put spreads, this can become a headwind if the stock does not move enough. For short premium strategies such as iron condors, collapsing implied volatility can become a tailwind if the stock remains inside the expected range.
In other words, earnings trades are not only about direction.
The size of the move matters as well.

Near-dated Nvidia options trade with elevated implied volatility ahead of earnings - Source: SaxoTrader

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.
Bullish outlook: bull call spread

A trader with a bullish outlook may believe Nvidia can break above the upper end of the expected move after earnings.
One possible defined-risk strategy is a bull call spread.

Example structure

Buy 1 May 22 USD 240 call
Sell 1 May 22 USD 260 call
Net debit: approximately USD 5.05
Maximum risk: approximately USD 505
Maximum profit: approximately USD 1,495
Break-even at expiry: approximately USD 245.05

The strategy profits if Nvidia rises above the break-even level, while the maximum profit is reached if the stock is at or above USD 260 at expiry.

The short 260 call also helps reduce the upfront cost compared with buying a standalone call option.
That lower cost comes with a trade-off.
While the maximum risk is defined upfront, the upside profit is capped above USD 260.

Strategy insight – defined risk in a high implied volatility environment. Buying options outright can become expensive when implied volatility is elevated. Vertical spreads help reduce that premium cost while keeping the maximum loss limited to the net debit paid at entry. This may make the structure more practical for traders who want directional exposure without committing to the full cost of a standalone option.

This type of structure may appeal to traders who believe Nvidia can continue its strong momentum after earnings, but who still want to limit the capital committed to the trade.

A bull call spread defines both the maximum risk and the maximum profit upfront - Source: SaxoTrader

Neutral outlook: iron condor

Not every trader expects a major breakout after earnings.
Some traders instead believe the options market may be overpricing the move.
One possible strategy for that view is the iron condor.

Example structure

Sell 1 May 22 USD 215 put
Buy 1 May 22 USD 210 put
Sell 1 May 22 USD 255 call
Buy 1 May 22 USD 260 call
Net credit: approximately USD 1.56
Maximum profit: approximately USD 156
Maximum risk: approximately USD 344
Lower break-even: approximately USD 213.44
Upper break-even: approximately USD 256.56

The iron condor is a defined-risk short volatility strategy.
The trader receives premium upfront and hopes Nvidia remains broadly within the expected range after earnings.
In this example, the short strikes near USD 215 and USD 255 are positioned close to the lower and upper expected-move levels derived from the option chain.
If Nvidia remains between the short strikes at expiry, the trader keeps the full premium received.

Strategy insight – short volatility and position sizing. Traders should not confuse limited risk with low risk. A sharp earnings surprise can still quickly push the position toward its maximum loss. Iron condors may therefore require active management and careful position sizing, especially during highly volatile earnings periods.

Strategy insight – Some traders prefer to wait until after the earnings release before opening an iron condor. Entering the position shortly after the market opens the next day can significantly reduce the directional “gap risk” associated with the earnings announcement itself, while still allowing the trader to capture some remaining implied volatility premium. The trade-off is that the first 30 minutes after the open are often highly volatile and fast-moving, with wide bid-ask spreads and rapidly changing option prices. This can make it more difficult to obtain the desired entry price or structure the position efficiently.

An iron condor benefits if the post-earnings move remains contained - Source: SaxoTrader

Bearish outlook: bear put spread

A bearish trader may believe expectations have become too optimistic heading into the earnings release.
Another possibility is that Nvidia delivers strong numbers, but still disappoints a market that had expected even more.
One defined-risk bearish strategy is the bear put spread.

Example structure

Buy 1 May 22 USD 225 put
Sell 1 May 22 USD 210 put
Net debit: approximately USD 3.25
Maximum risk: approximately USD 325
Maximum profit: approximately USD 1,175
Break-even at expiry: approximately USD 221.75

The strategy benefits if Nvidia declines after earnings.
Buying the 225 put provides bearish exposure, while selling the 210 put helps reduce the upfront premium paid.
As with the bull call spread, the trader accepts a capped maximum profit in exchange for a lower entry cost.

Strategy insight – the “sell the news” scenario. A bear put spread may appeal to traders who expect weakness after earnings, but who do not want the full premium exposure of buying a standalone put option in a high implied volatility environment. The spread structure reduces the initial debit while still providing meaningful bearish exposure down to USD 210.

A bear put spread provides defined-risk downside exposure - Source: SaxoTrader

Final thoughts

Earnings season often creates some of the largest implied moves of the quarter, and Nvidia remains one of the market’s most closely watched event-driven stocks.

For active investors and explorative traders, the option market can provide more than just speculation.
It can also provide a framework. The expected move helps traders understand how much volatility is already priced into the stock. From there, traders can decide whether they believe Nvidia will outperform that expectation, remain inside it, or break below it.
The three example strategies discussed here reflect those different views.

None of them remove risk.

But each demonstrates how defined-risk option structures can help traders shape their exposure more deliberately around one of the market’s biggest earnings events.

Related articles/content
What IV crush really means in practice reviewed version \| 9 April 2026 Trading earnings with defined \| 31 Mar 2026 PayPal earnings trading the expected move with options \| 4 May 2026 Alphabet after earnings - how a covered call can help investors manage a strong rally \| 30 April 2026 ArcelorMittal earnings what a 10 options move can teach traders \| 28 April 2026 ASML earnings is the 8 move already priced in \| 10 April 2026 ASML earnings - how to think about the setup before the numbers \| 10 April 2026 Options Brief - CPI spike Iran deal fades - 13 May 2026 Options Brief - Summit stakes oil surge - 12 May 2026 Options Brief - Jobs beat oil surge - 11 May 2026

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ArcelorMittal earnings what a 10 options move can teach traders | 28 April 2026
ASML earnings is the 8 move already priced in | 10 April 2026
ASML earnings - how to think about the setup before the numbers | 10 April 2026

Options Brief - CPI spike Iran deal fades - 13 May 2026
Options Brief - Summit stakes oil surge - 12 May 2026
Options Brief - Jobs beat oil surge - 11 May 2026

More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Options Thought Starters Investing with options Highlighted articles Listed Options What are your options Learn about options Options education Getting Started with Options En hurtig tanke Volatility and event strategies Defined risk strategies Sell premium credit strategies Trading Strategies Option Strategies Bearish strategies Bullish strategies Range‑bound strategies

London Quick Take - Monday - Crude rises and stocks slide as bond selloff deepens on inflation and fiscal risks

Mon, 18 May 2026 06:16:00 Z

Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.

Global stocks and bonds sold off as investors fixated on rising inflation and fiscal risks as the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz showed no signs of resolution. Deficit worries abound as countries are running high debt-to-GDP ratios already, fiscal risks are rising from highly indebted nations facing pressure to shield consumers from energy prices, and inflation pass-through is starting to be a worry following last week’s US inflation reports. Lots for the G7 finance ministers to discuss in Paris today.

Chiefly this is about the energy shock and its transmission to the global economy. Talks on ending the US-Iran war seem to have stalled, underline by the lack of any progress from the Trump-Xi meeting, while President Trump warned the “clock is ticking” on talks. "They better get moving, FAST, or there won't be anything left of them," he wrote on his Truth Social platform. "TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!" Crude prices opened higher with Brent closing the 5/6 May gap as expected to trade above $100 again. The meeting between Trump and Xi has, by the market's view at least, been a bit underwhelming. Markets are getting a lot more bearish on the Strait reopening any time soon.

Faced with persistently high energy prices, governments dealing with weary voters who’ve had several years of cost-of-living pain feel they can’t sit this one out. Japan’s bonds sold off as PM Takaichi pushed for extra budget to combat rising gasoline and gas prices, underscoring the fiscal risks to government debt markets that we are seeing play out. The US 30yr Treasury yield meanwhile hit 5.16%, its highest since 2023. The market has become spooked by inflationary risks after a series of hot inflation prints last week - notably the US CPI and PPI reports, as well import prices. April CPI hit 3.8% y/y, the highest since May 2023, while Wednesday’s PPI for final demand in April rose 6.0%, the biggest increase since December 2022. The Cleveland Fed inflation Nowcast is printing 6.89% annualised in Q2. The market is telling the Fed to shift quickly from an easing bias to tightening.

Meanwhile in the UK we have trouble brewing, or indeed boiling over, on the political front that is raising the prospect in investors’ minds at least of yet more borrowing. Andy Burnham says he will stick to the fiscal rules but this Labour leadership debate is turning the microscope on a much broader issue; whether the UK can find the leadership to deliver a credible plan to fix the nation’s finances. Tough medicine is required but no one seems willing to administer. Talk of rejoining the EU seems like a bit of a dead cat strategy by Wes Streeting. Again the pressure from voters on the government to do something to shield is acute. The UK’s 30yr gilt yield hit 5.877%, scoring a fresh 28-year high, whilst the 10yr gilt yield rose to 5.2% for its highest level in 18 years. Sterling bounced after hitting its weakest since 8 April overnight but still trades below Friday's starting point and is now comfortably below its 200-day SMA.

The rout in government bonds has sent stocks lower with the FTSE 100 dipping to its lowest level since 31 March. Housebuilders fell as mortgage rates rose, while reports that Vistry has ordered workers to down tools is also weighing on the sector. Miners fell as metal prices slipped. European stock markets were lower across the board with the CAC down –1% and DAX slipping –0.5%. Ryanair shares fell as Michael O'Leary said he'd continue as CEO for another 6 years...actually probably down to the carrier suspending its full-year guidance due to the increase in fuel costs. Results looked good with profits +36% and revenues +11% as the airline pushed through fare hikes.

US futures were down around half a percent early Monday after the S&P 500 fell -1.2% on Friday after hitting a record high of 7501.24 on Thursday as tech wobbled. The Nasdaq Composite dropped –1.5% Friday while the Dow Jones shed 1%, or more than 500pts. Chip names that had been aggressively bid up were among the steepest fallers with Intel, AMD and Micron all down around –6%. These stocks had seen an unsustainable rally so it’s not a great surprise that a rise in bond yields has seen the froth come off the top of the market.

Nvidia can hold up or let down the entire market when it reports on Wednesday. The print will be crucial for market sentiment after a rip higher across the tech, semiconductor and memory stocks sectors on AI optimism. Earnings season has so far proved the AI trade remains a powerful driver for returns with soaring demand across the sector, which is expected to show up in another bumper earnings report from Nvidia. The focus will be on AI infrastructure demand durability and broadening, the Blackwell ramp and Rubin rollout, plus guidance around supply chains and lead times. Revenues are expected at $78.5bn, driven by the Data Centre segment, which is seen growing at +35% on last year on insatiable GPU demand. You can read my week ahead here.

Precious metals broke down across the board as bond yields rallied along with the USD. Gold dropped to its lowest since the end of March at $4,480 while silver dropped below its 50-day SMA, which is now acting as resistance around $76.79.

Source: Saxo

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities United Kingdom Highlighted articles UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer FR US Actualites et Analyses Trump Version 2 - Investors Volatility investor TagFeed En hurtig tanke

Market Quick Take - 18 May 2026

Mon, 18 May 2026 06:07:00 Z

Market Quick Take – 18 May 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

Equities: US and European stocks fell as yields and oil rose, Asia weakened, with Korea’s chip rally hitting a wall.
Currencies: The US dollar rallies broadly on latest Hormuz Strait uncertainty and aggravated rise in US Treasury yields.
Commodities: Crude extends gains as energy crisis nears “tipping point”, metals pressured by inflation fears, grains rebound on China demand
Fixed Income: Global long bond yields punched aggressively higher to new cycle highs, setting the tone across markets
Macro: US May NAHB Housing Market Index

Macro headlines

China agreed to purchase at least $17 billion in US agricultural products annually through 2028, in addition to soybean commitments already agreed to, following President Trump's visit to Beijing.
The US and Iran remained far apart on a deal to end weeks of war and reopen the crucial Strait of Hormuz, with President Trump saying the clock is ticking for Iran.
A drone attack sparked a fire at a United Arab Emirates nuclear plant, underscoring the fragility of the ceasefire.
Fed minutes due this week will be watched for signs of whether prospects of an interest rate hike are building given elevated energy prices.
The Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates by 25 basis points twice this year to better control inflation, according to Carlyle Japan co-head.
This week, the earnings season begins to wind down, but with key updates from U.S. heavyweights Nvidia and Walmart. Inflation data will remain in focus with April CPI readings from Canada, the UK, and Japan. Preliminary May PMI data across several economies should provide additional insight into how the private sector is weathering the impact of the Iran war.
Domestic economic weakness broadened across the Chinese economy in April, highlighting an economy increasingly reliant on manufacturing and exports while continuing to struggle with weak household confidence. Fixed-asset investment declined 1.6% in the first four months from a year earlier, retail sales missed expectations with growth of just 0.2% YoY, while industrial production rose 4.1% YoY, also below the 6% forecast and slowing from 5.7% in March.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

• 0700 – Switzerland 1Q GDP
• 1400 – US May NAHB Housing Market Index
• 2350 – Japan 1Q GDP

Earnings this week

Tuesday: The Home Depot, Keysight Technologies
Wednesday: Nvidia, Analog Devices, TJX Companies, Lowe\s, Intuit, Tokio Marine Holdings, Target
Thursday: Walmart, Deere, Ross Stores

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 fell 1.2% on Friday, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.5%, and the Dow lost 1.1% as bond yields jumped and higher oil revived inflation worries. Tech led the pullback after the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 4.0%, with Nvidia down 4.4%, Micron down 6.6%, and Broadcom down 3.3% as investors took profit in the AI trade. Microsoft rose 3.1% after Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square disclosed a new stake, a rare green patch on a very red screen. Markets now watch oil, yields, and upcoming earnings for direction.
Europe: The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 1.5% on Friday to 606.92, while Germany’s DAX dropped 2.1% and the FTSE 100 lost 1.7% as higher oil, rising bond yields, and UK political noise weighed on risk appetite. Banks weakened as yields rose for the wrong reason, with BNP Paribas down 3.0% and Deutsche Bank down 2.6%, while LVMH fell 1.1% after news of the Marc Jacobs sale. Stellantis dropped 3.5% on its Dongfeng deal, while TotalEnergies rose 0.5% as oil strength offset renewed French tax talk. Investors now watch whether energy prices keep feeding the inflation story.
Asia: Asian markets ended mixed-to-weaker on Friday, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng down 1.6% to 25,962.73 and South Korea’s Kospi plunging 6.1% to 7,493.18 after its recent record run. Alibaba fell 4.1% in Hong Kong, while Samsung Electronics dropped 8.6% and SK Hynix lost 7.7% as strike risks and profit-taking hit Korea’s AI chip leaders. Japan remained the regional bright spot earlier in the week, with the Nikkei 225 rising 0.8% on Wednesday to a record 63,272.11 on strong earnings. The week ahead tests whether Asia’s AI rally has stamina or just very good running shoes.

Fixed Income

Global long-dated yields exploded higher and yield curves steepened late last week on higher crude oil prices and on the sense that leading central banks, including especially the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, will do little on the policy front to tighten policy and stem inflationary risks.
The benchmark US 10-year treasury yield rose above 4.50% for the first time in nearly a year, trading up nearly 25 basis points last week and higher still to start the week as the benchmark trade above 4.62% early Monday. The benchmark 30-year US T-bond yield rose above 5.00% and touched 5.15% in early trading Monday, just two basis points shy of the post-GFC highs in that benchmark from 2023. At the short-end of the curve, the market is reluctant to price that the Warsh Fed will raise rates, as the benchmark 2-year treasury yield rose eighteen basis points, sending the benchmark above 4.00% on a weekly close for the first time this year. Early Monday, the yield rose another three basis points to 4.10%.
Japan’s government bond yield curve steepened in almost disorderly fashion on a vicious sell-off in the country’s longest dated bonds. The benchmark 30-year JGB rose 30 basis points last week to close above 4.0% for the first time since the introduction of the 30-year bond in the late 90’s, with much of the rise coming on Thursday and Friday. A further spike Monday sent the benchmark another 18 basis points higher and above 4.20% before it retreated toward 4.10% later in the session. At the front end of the curve, the benchmark 2-year JGB yield rose about a basis point on top of Friday’s nearly two basis point jump, trading near 1.43% as the market is slow to raise expectations for BoJ tightening.

Commodities

The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index gained 2% last week, with an end-of-week selloff in precious metals, alongside profit-taking across grains and softs, more than offset by renewed strength in energy where crude and fuel product futures all rose by more than 6% on the week. The index’s year-to-date gain reached 30%, double the return delivered by the tech-heavy Nasdaq.
Brent trades back above USD 111, rising for a third consecutive day with no end in sight to the Middle East crisis. According to the Financial Times, nearly 80 countries have introduced emergency measures aimed at shielding their economies as the world enters a potentially more dangerous phase of the energy crisis ahead of possible tipping point with traders warning that oil prices could see another sharp leg higher unless the blockaded Strait of Hormuz opens soon. Trump told Axios: “We want to make a deal,” but added that Iran “will have to get there or they will be hit badly.”
Gold, silver and copper, continue to trade lower following last week’s sharp declines, when inflation concerns roiled markets, pushing bond yields and the dollar higher while reviving fears of additional rate hikes. In addition, concerns central banks may sell gold to support currencies and mitigate surging energy costs have also been weighing. Gold has so far found support and bounced from the USD 4,500 area, with the next key level lower being the 200-day moving average, last around USD 4,350. Silver meanwhile trades near the centre of its broad and very wide USD 60 to 90 range.
The grains sector trades higher following a two-day slump led by wheat, after China agreed to purchase at least USD 17 billion of agricultural products annually through 2028. At the same time, rising energy prices continue to add another supportive layer through the biofuel channel.

Currencies

The US dollar rallied broadly and decisively late last week on the rise in crude oil prices and on a weakening in global risk sentiment Friday as global bond yields rushed higher. EURUSD fell below the range low since early April of 1.1655 Friday, trading as low as 1.1608 early Monday.
USDJPY rallied as high as 159.07 early Monday amidst widespread USD strength and an almost disorderly sell-off in Japan’s longest-dated government bonds, with the rally likely somewhat muted due to the concern that Japan’s Ministry of Finance could step in at any time to push back against further JPY weakness after having intervened several times since USDJPY briefly traded above 160.00 in late April.
Sterling weakened broadly late last week on political uncertainty as Keir Starmer’s days as Prime Minister are seen as likely numbered and the market frets who might replace him and whether they will prioritize fiscal stability as highly as did his government. UK long Gilt yields burst to new post-GFC highs on Friday as EURGBP rose further above 0.8700 and GBPUSD fell into the low 1.3300’s after taking out the range lows near 1.3450.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

Saxo Bank

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Nvidia earnings preview: AI rally faces its next reality check

Mon, 18 May 2026 03:30:00 Z

Key points:

Nvidia’s earnings are likely to be the next major test for the AI trade. The company remains at the centre of the AI infrastructure boom, but expectations are high after a strong rally in technology and semiconductor stocks.
The market may focus more on guidance than the past quarter. Investors will want to know whether AI demand is still accelerating, whether margins remain strong and whether China or competition risks are becoming more material.
The key risk is that “good” may not be good enough. Nvidia has become a signal for the broader AI theme, so any disappointment could spill over into semiconductors, Nasdaq and other AI-linked names.

Nvidia is expected to report fiscal Q1 2027 earnings for the quarter ended 26 April 2026 on 20 May 2026, and this is no longer just a company-specific event. For many investors, Nvidia has become the scoreboard for the AI boom.

The company sits at the centre of cloud computing, data centres, generative AI and high-performance chips. Its results help answer one big market question: is AI infrastructure spending still running hot, or is the market starting to price in too much good news?

That question matters more now because technology and semiconductor stocks have already rallied strongly. The AI story is still powerful, but the short-term setup is less one-sided. Nvidia may need to deliver not just strong results, but strong enough results to justify the recent move.

The numbers to watch — and why they matter

Based on Bloomberg consensus estimates for the quarter ending April 2026, investors may want to focus on a short list of numbers rather than every line item.

Metric to watch	Bloomberg consensus	Why it matters
Adjusted EPS	$1.77	This is the headline profit number. Nvidia has a strong history of beating estimates, so the question is whether the beat is large enough to impress the market.
Revenue	$78.9bn	Consensus already implies roughly 79% year-on-year growth, so expectations are not low. In-line revenue may not be enough after the recent AI rally.
Data centre revenue	$73.3bn	This is the heart of the AI story. Investors will look for signs that Blackwell demand is ramping strongly and that Rubin can support the next leg of growth.
Adjusted gross margin	~75%	Margins show pricing power. Resilient margins would suggest demand is strong and supply remains tight; pressure here could raise questions around competition, product transitions or costs.
FY2027 revenue / EPS	$370bn / $8.43	This is what is already priced into the forward story. The market is expecting another major step-up in growth, not a normal year.

1. EPS and revenue: can growth still surprise?

Consensus is looking for adjusted EPS of around $1.77 and revenue of around $78.9 billion for the quarter.

That is already a very high bar. Nvidia has trained the market to expect strong earnings beats, so the key question is not simply whether it beats. It is whether the beat is big enough, and whether guidance suggests the growth story is still accelerating.

2. Data centre and networking: the heart of the AI story

Data centre revenue is expected at around $73.3 billion, or roughly 87% year-on-year growth.

This is the most important number because it captures demand from cloud providers, AI labs and companies building AI infrastructure. Investors will watch whether customers are still racing to add capacity, and whether Blackwell demand is ramping smoothly.

Rubin will also matter for the forward story. Investors will want confidence that Nvidia has another major platform transition ahead, rather than a one-off Blackwell upgrade cycle.

Networking is becoming an important part of this story too. AI data centres do not just need more chips; they need faster connections between chips, servers and clusters. That is why Nvidia’s networking business is being watched for record demand, supported by larger AI clusters, Ethernet/InfiniBand adoption and the need to reduce bottlenecks in training and inference workloads.

3. Margins and supply: is pricing power still intact?

Adjusted gross margin is expected around 75%.

Margins matter because they show whether Nvidia still has strong pricing power. High margins would suggest demand remains strong, supply remains tight and Nvidia’s platform advantage is intact.

Supply is worth watching because demand for Nvidia’s newest AI systems has been stronger than the industry can easily absorb. The question is not only whether customers want more Blackwell chips, but whether Nvidia and its partners can deliver enough complete systems — including advanced packaging, high-bandwidth memory, servers and networking equipment — on time. If supply improves, Nvidia can convert more demand into revenue. But if bottlenecks persist, some sales may be pushed into later quarters, while faster capacity expansion could also test margins if costs rise.

4. AI capex: is the spending cycle still expanding?

Nvidia’s revenue shows what customers are buying now, but hyperscaler capex plans show whether the AI buildout still has legs.

Investors will listen for signs that large cloud and technology companies are continuing to spend heavily on GPUs, networking and full-stack data centre infrastructure. This matters because Nvidia’s growth depends not only on demand for chips, but on the scale of the entire AI factory buildout.

The positive read would be that customers are still expanding AI capacity and need more compute, networking and software to support larger models and inference demand. The negative read would be any sign that customers are becoming more selective, slowing orders or facing investor pressure to prove returns on AI spending.

5. Guidance: the real market mover

The most important part of the report may be what Nvidia says about the next quarter and the broader demand outlook.

This is where the bar is already very high. Bloomberg consensus currently points to Nvidia revenue rising from about $216 billion in FY2026 to around $370 billion in FY2027, implying roughly 71% annual growth. Adjusted EPS is also expected to rise from about $4.77 to $8.43, or around 77% growth.

That means investors are not pricing in a normal growth year. They are pricing in another step-change in AI demand, supported by Blackwell, early Rubin visibility, networking strength and continued hyperscaler capex.

A strong guide would suggest the AI infrastructure cycle still has momentum and that the market’s high growth assumptions remain achievable. A cautious guide, even after a solid quarter, could trigger profit-taking because the stock has already rallied sharply and expectations for FY2027 are demanding.

For investors, this is the key lesson: a good company can still see its share price fall if expectations were too high going into the results. Nvidia may not only need to beat today’s numbers; it may need to defend tomorrow’s growth story.

Positive drivers to watch

The most constructive outcome would be a combination of strong revenue, strong data centre sales, resilient margins and upbeat guidance.

That would suggest AI demand is still broadening, Nvidia remains the key supplier of AI infrastructure and customers are still willing to spend aggressively despite higher costs and macro uncertainty.

Other positive drivers could include:

Management commentary that demand remains strong across cloud providers and enterprise customers.
Evidence that supply constraints are easing without hurting pricing power.
Confidence that new products are supporting another leg of growth.
Signs that networking and full-stack AI infrastructure demand remain strong, not just chip demand.
Continued confidence from hyperscalers that AI capex will remain elevated.

If these drivers come together, the report could support the broader AI trade and improve sentiment across semiconductors, AI infrastructure names and the Nasdaq.

Negative drivers to watch

The main risk is not necessarily a weak quarter. The bigger risk is a quarter that is good but not good enough.

Negative drivers could include:

Guidance that is only in line with expectations or sounds more cautious.
Any sign that data centre demand is slowing or becoming more selective.
Margin pressure from product transitions, higher costs or customer pricing pressure.
Supply constraints that delay deliveries, limit near-term revenue conversion or make the Blackwell/Rubin transition look less smooth than expected.
More uncertainty around China demand, export restrictions or local procurement policies.
Rising competition from AMD or custom chips developed by large cloud companies.
Any concern that hyperscalers are slowing AI capex, becoming more selective, or facing investor pressure to show returns on AI spending.

Valuation and earnings history: the bar is high, but not impossible

Nvidia’s earnings history shows why investors still give the stock the benefit of the doubt. Over the past several quarters, the company has often beaten consensus expectations, with Bloomberg data showing an average earnings surprise of around 15%. That track record is one reason markets continue to expect upside risk around results.

But the share-price reaction has become less automatic. Recent results have shown that even earnings beats can be followed by profit-taking if the guidance is not strong enough or if investors had already priced in a very strong quarter. In simple terms: Nvidia has trained the market to expect beats, so the surprise now needs to be more meaningful.

Valuation adds another layer. Bloomberg data shows Nvidia trading at roughly 48x trailing earnings currently, lower than the extreme multiples seen earlier in the AI cycle but still a premium valuation that depends on continued strong growth. Consensus expects earnings growth to stay very high into FY2027, so the stock may look more reasonable if Nvidia keeps delivering — but more vulnerable if growth expectations are revised lower.

The takeaway for investors: valuation is not the main problem if the AI growth cycle keeps accelerating. The risk is that a premium stock with premium expectations has less room for disappointment.

Bottom line

Nvidia’s earnings are likely to be a reality check for the AI rally.

The long-term AI infrastructure theme remains powerful, but the near-term bar is high.

The company does not only need to show that demand remains strong. It may need to show that demand is still accelerating, margins remain resilient, competition risk is contained, supply constraints are manageable and China risk is manageable.

That is a high bar. And when the bar is high, even good news can create volatility.

Charu Chanana

Chief Investment Strategist

Saxo

Topics: Equities Theme - Artificial intelligence Artificial Intelligence NVIDIA Corporation NVidia Corp. Advanced Micro Devices Micron Technology Inc. Technology Facebook Inc Alphabet Palantir Technologies UKMustRead

The Week Ahead: Record-breaking stock market rally hinges on Nvidia earnings and Fed outlook, while pound and gilts face key inflation and labour market tests

Fri, 15 May 2026 09:04:00 Z

Your guide to the trading calendar over the week of 18 - 22 May.

Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.

After a monster rip higher for stocks, led by semis and memory stocks, it feels as though everything is once again hanging on Nvidia earnings, which are out this week. Walmart headlines a busy week for retail names in the US which provide insight on the US economy.

We are also paying close attention to Fed speakers as new chair Kevin Warsh takes charge and markets continue to reassess the path for US interest rates, which have just started to break higher and price in a higher chance of the next move by the Fed being a hike. Note that the 30-year Treasury yield breached 5.00% on 13 May, following a $25 billion auction that priced the long bond at a 5% handle for the first time since 2007 owing to weak demand. At first slowly and not quickly the market is telling the Fed to drop its easing bias and move to a hawkish stance.

Over in the Middle East, the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire is due to expire before the trading weeks kicks off, setting the stage for fresh volatility in energy markets after last week’s Trump-Xi meeting delivered little in terms of concrete steps to resolving the conflict with Iran or reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

The UK’s political drama will continue as gilt markets respond to the evolving leadership crisis in the Labour party. On the stock exchange, investors are looking to results from a number of FTSE 100 companies, including BT, Marks & Spencer, Autotrader and Sage Group.

Here’s the key events to watch over the next week.

Monday, 18 May

The trading week kicks off with a focus as ever on any developments in the Middle East over the weekend. G-7 finance ministers and central bank governors meet in Paris for the start of a two-day summit, with the focus on global imbalances, trade tensions and FX policy. Meanwhile Bank of England rate setters Greene and Mann speak at a couple of other events.

China property prices, retail sales, industrial production, fixed-asset investment figures make up the major economic data releases.

Ryanair earnings are due up with a focus on fuel costs and forward bookings for the summer with signs consumers are hesitant to book flights until later than usual. Chinese group Baidu also reports earnings.

Meanwhile this is the first day on which Parliament can move the writ to formally organise a by-election in Makersfield, where incumbent MP Josh Simons is standing down in order for Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to return to the House of Commons and almost certainly challenge Keir Starmer for the leadership of the Labour party.

Tuesday, 19 May

There’s a slew of central bank speakers on the tape who will no doubt be addressing inflation risks and how policy might or might not respond. But the key focus for traders in London will be the latest UK jobless claims and unemployment numbers, which will be important for setting market expectations for how the Bank of England will address inflation concerns. In short is the trade-off between jobs and inflation balance right now and would a hike be worth further depressing the labour market? The last quarterly updated indicate progress as unemployment fell from 5.2% to 4.9%; however this was down to a decline in the participation rate as payrolls actually declined by 11k. The other thing to watch is wages, with pay growth showing a noticeable slowdown – an important consideration for whether the BoE believes this energy price shock will lead to the second order effects of a wage price spiral.

Elsewhere there is the Canada CPI inflation and US pending home sales reports, as well as the Australia Westpac consumer sentiment report. Japanese GDP figures will be important for driving yen crosses and broader FX markets early on as the Bank of Japan is expected to hike soon.

On the corporate front there are first half results from DCC, which come after the UK-listed Irish energy group rejected a £5bn takeover from KKR and Energy Capital. On Wall Street The Home Depot reports earnings.

Wednesday, 20 May

The major highlight is Nvidia’s earnings report, which will be crucial for market sentiment after a rip higher across the tech, semiconductor and memory stocks sectors on AI optimism. Earnings season has so far proved the AI trade remains a powerful driver for returns with soaring demand across the sector, which is expected to show up in another bumper earnings report from Nvidia. The focus will be on AI infrastructure demand durability and broadening, the Blackwell ramp and Rubin rollout, plus guidance around supply chains and lead times. Revenues are expected at $78.5bn, driven by the Data Centre segment, which is seen growing at +35% on last year on insatiable GPU demand.

In London, investors will look to earnings scorecards from Severn Trent, British Land, Experian and Marks & Spencer. MKS posted group sales growth of +24.2% in Q3 with LFL food revenues +5.6%, however the impact of the Iran war on the consumer willlikely start to show up in the Q4 and full-year results. Q1 sales from Intertek may take a back seat after management said it was minded to accept the £10.6bn final offer from EQT. In the US retail Target reports earnings.

On the economic calendar the major focus is on the inflation story in Britain with the latest CPI inflation report expected to show another rise in prices. CPI rose to 3.3% in March from 3.0% in February as the impact of the Iran war was only just starting to be felt. Expectations indicate the rate could jump to 3.7% in April as elevated energy prices feed through the economy. Meanwhile, market participants will watch the any changes to China loan prime rates plus there is the final reading for Eurozone inflation and minutes from the last FOMC meeting to go over. Repricing in rates markets are sending the Fed a clear signal to drop its easing bias - something four FOMC members wanted at the last meeting. the minutes will give a bit colour around how quickly the Fed might move - albeit this was under previous chair Powell.

Thursday, 21 May

It’s a busy day on the economic calendar with flash manufacturing and services PMIs for most major developed markets. These reports will provide a clear indication of how activity is being affected by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the impact on prices. S&P Global’s UK composite PMI for April pointed to the biggest month-on-month rise in input prices since records began 28 years ago, hitting the highest level since double-digit inflation in 2022.

After a tumultuous week due to the Labour leadership crisis, gilt markets will be in focus with a 10yr bond auction slated, following the record sale of 10yr paper last month, when the Debt Management Office sold a record £15bn of 10-year gilts at a yield of 4.9158% - the highest since 2008.

On the FTSE we have earnings from easyJet, Sage, ICG and Autotrader, while BT provides full-year results after shares recently broke out to 7-year highs. Meanwhile Bunzl, Whitbread, Shell and Tritax Big Box REIT go ex-dividend today, which will shave a few points of the index. Walmart headlines the earnings on Wall Street. Shares were hit a bit after the last earnings update as new CEO John Furner reset expectations by trimming guidance despite some very healthy progress on ecommerce sales which rose +24% globally and +27% in the US.

Friday, 22 May

Gut check time for the UK consumer with retail sales figures due up alongside the GfK Consumer Confidence survey. The hit from the Iran war saw the April reading decline 4 points to –25, the lowest reading in 2 years.

Elsewhere, Japan’s national core CPI numbers will be another guide what the Bank of Japan is likely to do at its next meeting in June. Germany IFO business climate and GDP figures provide a look at Europe’s largest economy. Canada retail sales is one to watch before the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment and inflation expectations reports round out the trading week.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities United Kingdom Highlighted articles UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer FR US Actualites et Analyses Trump Version 2 - Investors Volatility investor TagFeed En hurtig tanke

London Quick Take - Friday - Pound hit by Labour leadership crisis as yields spike, stocks slide and crude climbs as Trump departs China

Fri, 15 May 2026 06:37:00 Z

Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.

We began the week talking about inflation risks, UK political risks and Trump's visit to China and we’re still talking about them. Yields are backing up sharply on both sides of the Atlantic for a mix of reasons, whilst Labour’s leadership crisis is having a clear impact on sterling. And what exactly did Trump achieve with that visit to China?

European stock markets were sold across the board on Friday after President Trump’s visit to China wrapped up with actually not a lot to show for it ... had all the hallmarks of two sides playing nice for the cameras. Oil prices rose as Trump said China would buy US oil; South Korean chip stocks fell hard as one US official said chip export controls were not discussed in detail, leading Asian shares lower, particularly tech. European markets have followed suit with the FTSE 100 down –0.8% with miners Fresnillo, Antofagasta and Anglo American hit hard as silver fell -6% and copper dipped -4%, while gold edged down -2% to $4,550 to test the 6 May low. Meanwhile the DAX was trading –1% lower on the session. It doesn’t look like there is meaningful progress on Iran either, which is maybe adding a bit of bid to crude after Trump said earlier this week he’s in no rush to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The Labour leadership contest is on: Wes Streeting resigned and opened the field to allow Andy Burnham, who has found an MP willing to give up his seat, a chance to run. Gilt yields spiked with both the 10yr and 30yr opening up about 10-11bps higher, though just running a little ways below the multi-decade highs already posted this week. Reform could make it nasty for Burnham in Makerfield but as someone put it to me yesterday, Labour voters will turn out for him because they’ll actually be voting for the PM. It’s a unique by-election. Markets won’t like it and they won’t like the idea of the Labour party anointing a left-leaning PM whose fiscal views are well known – as are his views of the bond market. Ultimately the bond market is likely to impose fiscal discipline, but it can get messy before that happens. And the UK’s fiscal position gets increasingly fragile every day that the Strait of Hormuz is shut.

So where is the gilt market at right now? Basically pricing in uncertainty and a likely leftwards shift rather than full-on statist push into nationalisation, wealth taxes and extra borrowing. There is a non-negligible chance that the market could overdo the risks from a Burnham leadership – a lot would depend on his choice of Chancellor. The situation remains very complex, however if we try to boil into simple terms for investors, the UK is in a very difficult position economically, fiscally and politically with no one seemingly able to come up with a credible plan to fix the nation’s finances and secure growth. Inflation and yields are resetting at a higher level for the UK, which is not a good look for the currency.

Sterling has tripped up with GBPUSD sliding as low as 1.333 where it’s at a 5-week low, though the dollar side is driving a chunk of the price action as USD is firmly bid across the board. Nevertheless, the pound also hit its weakest against the euro since 8 April, so we can definitely see that the politics is hammering sentiment towards sterling. Political uncertainty and fiscal risks coupled with a fresh injection of ‘moron premium’ (this time of a decidedly leftist flavour) should pressure sterling, though it won’t fall as fast as it might due to the carry from the yield differential.

It's not the UK that is seeing yields sharpen - US front yields moved up sharply yesterday with the 2yr touching cycle highs at 4%, last touched late April, which saw the dollar climb and notched a couple of important technical breaks, with EURUSD breaching the 5 May low on the downside to hit a 2-week low, while USDJPY cleared 158 to also hit a two-week high. GBPUSD slumped below 1.35 further as the political weakness in the UK met this technical USD buying. US 30yr yields were also higher above 5.05%.

This has extended overnight as the dollar picked up fresh bid after President Trump departed China following a summit that was largely more show than dough. I think the market was hoping for something on Iran but alas no. Trump suggested he wasn't bothered if the Strait opened "at all". Brent rose above $107 again, whilst the dollar appears to be benefitting on haven plays – EURUSD broke out to the downside to a 5-week low 1.163 to test its 50-day moving average. USDJPY moved firmly through the 158 handle but’s met resistance at the 50-day line around 158.7 with some bid for JPY coming in overnight as Japan’s wholesale inflation rose 4.9% in April, twice the forecast rate.

Some data yesterday emphasised the market is still short inflation risks. US retail sales held up, rising 0.5% month‑on‑month in April, which was in line with expectations but eased from a downwardly revised 1.6% increase in March. Sales jumped 2.8% at gasoline stations – excluding these retail sales were up 0.3%. And inflation worries were demonstrated in the import/export price data for April. Import prices for April +1.9% versus 1.0% estimated and prior month revised higher to 0.9% from 0.8%. Export prices for April +3.3% versus 1.1% expected and prior month revised lower to 1.5% from 1.6%. It comes after the hot PPI and CPI reports earlier this week.

Inflation concerns are not worrying equity investors on Wall Street as the S&P 500 posted its first close above 7,500, hitting fresh intraday and closing highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 370 points to retake the 50,000 level. The Nasdaq Composite was +0.88% as it too scored new all-time intraday and closing highs.

Cisco’s 13% gain was a big boost to the Dow, while Nvidia rallied +4% as the US cleared around 10 Chinese firms to purchase the company’s H200 chip. Boeing dipped almost –4% as China’s agreement to purchase 200 jets fell short of expectations for the trip.

Elsewhere, crypto stocks rallied along with Bitcoin as the Senate Banking Committee met to discuss the Clarity Act; legislation that will create a regulatory framework for cryptos. The likes of MARA, Coinbase, Cleanspark, Galaxy Digital and Strategy advanced 4-5% Bitcoin rose from $79,000 to above $81,500 before trimming gains as the bill advanced the committee but now faces a key Senate vote on the floor which will depend on bipartisan support. Two Democrats supported the bill but said they may not support it on the floor – I think they need 7 Democrats to pass it...banks hate the idea of stablecoin yield competing away their margins on deposits.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities United Kingdom Highlighted articles UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer FR US Actualites et Analyses Trump Version 2 - Investors Volatility investor TagFeed En hurtig tanke

Options Brief - AI rally, summit day two - 15 May 2026

Fri, 15 May 2026 05:38:00 Z

The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high Thursday, above 7,500 for the first time. Cisco surged 13% on earnings. Nvidia kept climbing. Day one of the Trump-Xi summit went well. Then Friday arrived: KOSPI down nearly 4%, US futures pointing lower, and Xi’s Taiwan warning still on the table. The options market is pricing a split story.

Options Brief - AI rally, summit day two - 15 May 2026

Thursday’s session closed at all-time highs on AI earnings and summit optimism; Friday brings caution as Trump and Xi enter the second and final day of their Beijing talks.

Cisco surged 13% after a strong earnings beat and job cut announcement, Nvidia extended its run, and summit-day-one optimism around the Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing pushed the S&P 500 to a new all-time closing record above 7,500. Heading into Friday, the mood has shifted. The KOSPI fell nearly 4% in the live Friday session, US futures are pointing modestly lower, and Xi’s Wednesday warning that mishandling Taiwan could lead to “conflicts” is hanging over the second and final day of talks. The options market is split: equity sentiment is historically call-heavy, while the VIX term structure is quietly steepening toward June.

Market snapshot

All equity and index values are Thursday 14 May closes. Futures and Asian market values represent live prices at approximately 6:10am Brussels/Copenhagen time on Friday 15 May. European markets had not yet opened at time of writing.

S&P 500: 7,501.24, +0.77% (new all-time closing record)
Nasdaq 100: 29,580.30, +0.73%
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 50,068.02, +0.74% (back above 50,000)
DAX / Euro Stoxx 50: 24,456.26 (+1.32%) / 5,934.97 (+1.26%) (Thursday closes)
US 10-year yield: 4.52%, up 8.3 basis points on the Thursday session
S&P 500 futures / Nasdaq 100 futures: –0.33% / –0.52% (live at 6:10am CEST)
KOSPI: –3.94% (live Friday session)
Market regime: Low vol bull – VIX 17.3 (Thursday close), 20-day realised vol 10.0% (decreasing), S&P 500 +8.56% above its 50-day moving average

Options angle

The CBOE Volatility Index closed Thursday at 17.26, down 3.41% on the session, confirming the low-vol bull regime. Front-month VIX futures moved in the opposite direction, gaining 1.03% to 20.75, pushing the spot-to-futures gap to roughly 3.5 points. The VIX 3-month-to-spot ratio stands at 1.21, meaning the futures curve is notably steep: near-term calm is fully priced in, but June carries a meaningful uncertainty premium that spot VIX alone does not capture.

The CBOE SKEW index, which measures the premium investors pay for out-of-the-money downside protection relative to equivalent upside exposure, remains elevated at 139.32 despite a 1.55% pullback on the session. Elevated SKEW keeps put options structurally more expensive than equivalent calls. The CBOE S&P 500 equity put/call ratio (PCCE), which tracks protective put activity relative to bullish call activity on individual stocks, fell to 0.536 on Thursday – an unusually low reading consistent with a market leaning heavily on calls for upside exposure. When equity options positioning tilts this far toward calls, market makers typically carry elevated short-gamma exposure, meaning they are forced to buy on rallies and sell on declines, amplifying directional moves in both directions. A negative or ambiguous summit conclusion, a Taiwan headline, or a further rise in US yields could trigger rapid de-hedging and a sharper-than-expected move.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.

Strategy insight – Call spreads over outright calls. With SKEW at 139 and VIX spot at 17.26, call options are structurally cheaper than puts right now. Buying a call spread on the S&P 500 – purchasing a call at a lower strike while selling one at a higher strike – captures bullish directional exposure at a meaningfully lower net premium than an outright call. The elevated put skew makes the short call leg relatively inexpensive, improving the spread’s risk/reward further. This structure suits a scenario where Thursday’s record high holds and the summit wraps constructively. The maximum loss is the net premium paid, defined and capped from the moment the spread is entered.

Strategy insight – Protective puts before the weekend close. With 20-day realised vol at 10% and VIX spot at 17, index put premiums are affordable relative to the past two years. Buying a put spread on the S&P 500 or the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) before Friday’s close provides defined downside cover into a weekend where the summit outcome is unresolved and geopolitical risk has been explicitly raised. The dealer short-gamma dynamic adds a secondary case: if sentiment shifts abruptly, forced de-hedging can push moves well beyond what the fundamental news alone justifies. The maximum loss on the put spread is limited to the net premium paid; the sold put at a lower strike creates a floor below which the hedge no longer covers further declines.

Conclusion

Thursday’s session was technically clean and the all-time high above 7,500 is a meaningful level. Friday introduces two genuine unknowns: the final Beijing summit outcome and the market’s reaction to it, with the KOSPI already pricing in some disappointment at –3.94% as the European session approaches. The options market is sending a split signal – equity sentiment still call-heavy, VIX term structure steepening toward June – and defined-risk structures on both sides are priced attractively enough to act on before the weekend.

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Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Asia Market Quick Take – 15 May, 2026

Fri, 15 May 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 15 May, 2026

Key points:

Macro: Retails sales in line at 0.5%; Initial jobless claims at 211k vs 205k
Equities: Equity futures new high for 2^nd straight day
FX: USD strengthens following constructive Trump-Xi Summit
Commodities: Oil looking to close for 7% gain for the week
Fixed income: US 2Y yields highest since June 2025

------------------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

Kevin Warsh was confirmed as the new Federal Reserve chair, with bond markets already repricing higher and raising interest rates ahead of his tenure.
US retail sales rose 0.5% month-on-month in April 2026, in line with forecasts, after a downwardly revised 1.6% gain in March. Gasoline stations led with a 2.8% increase amid higher fuel prices; excluding gas stations, sales were up 0.3%. Core retail sales (excluding food services, autos, building materials, and gas) also climbed 0.5%, slightly above expectations of 0.4%.
Japan’s producer prices rose 4.9% year-on-year in April 2026, the fastest since May 2023 and above the 3% forecast, driven by higher energy-related costs linked to Iran war–related disruptions. On the month, PPI jumped 2.3%, up from 1% in March and the strongest increase since April 2014.
Major resignations are intensifying a leadership challenge to UK PM Keir Starmer after Labour’s local-election losses, with MP Josh Simons stepping aside for Andy Burnham and Health Secretary Wes Streeting quitting to position for PM; Angela Rayner was cleared in a tax probe, potentially enabling a bid. BoE’s Sarah Breeden said the Middle East conflict is unlikely to spark a 2022-style inflation surge, while UK GDP grew 0.6% in Q1 and 1.1% year-on-year.
US jobless claims rose by 12,000 to 211,000 in the first week of May, above forecasts of 205,000. Continuing claims increased by 24,000 to 1.782 million, slightly below expectations, but both measures remain below last year’s averages, signaling a still-strong labor market. Claims by federal employees fell by 46 to 392.

Equities:

US: The S&P 500 climbed 0.8% to 7,501.24, setting an all-time high for a second straight day after retail sales showed signs of consumer strength despite war-driven energy costs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 370 points or 0.8% to close above 50,000 for the first time since the Iran war began, boosted by Cisco Systems which surged 13% on blockbuster earnings. Cerebras Systems surged 68% on debut after a $5.5bn IPO, valuing it at about $67bn ($83bn fully diluted). Trump says China agreed to buy 200 Boeing jets—its first US-made purchase in nearly a decade—but the deal is well below earlier talk of up to 500 737 MAXs plus widebodies. The Nasdaq 100 gained 0.7% to a new record. Nvidia continued its meteoric rise after US/ China announced resumption of chip sales to China, extending gains toward an unprecedented $6 trillion market capitalization. In after-hours trading, Applied Materials jumped 2.7% after giving sales and profit forecasts far above analysts' estimates, while Figma rose 12% to $22.69 on raised outlook.
EU: The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.8% to 616.04, advancing for a second straight day with technology shares leading gains. ASML Holding climbed 3.0% on the back of better-than-expected results from Cisco Systems in the US. Siemens rallied 2.6% after agreeing to acquire several businesses from Mer Mec. Germany's DAX jumped 1.3% or 319.45 points to 24,456.26, the largest one-day gain since May 6, with Infineon Technologies rising 5.8%. The FTSE 100 gained 0.5% or 47.58 points to 10,372.93 in London. France's CAC 40 rose 0.93% to 8,082.27, while the Euro Stoxx 50 climbed 1.26% to 5,934.96.
Asia: Asian markets showed mixed performance on Thursday. South Korea's Kospi rose 1.8% to 7,981.41 at the close, rebounding from recent volatility as the index has surged 200% over the past year, far outpacing every other market globally. The rally has fueled speculative mania with locals borrowing record sums and trading volumes soaring to all-time highs. Japan's Nikkei fell 1.0% to 62,654.0 on Wednesday but futures indicated a 0.5% rise to 63,090 for Friday as AI enthusiasm continued. Hong Kong's Hang Seng and mainland Chinese benchmarks were mixed as investors monitored the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing. Singapore's Straits Times Index gained 1.2% or 57.96 points to finish at 5,003.96 on Wednesday, with Wilmar International leading gainers by rising 3.0%. Singapore Airlines’ net profit slumped 57% to S$1.18b, beating estimates, as losses at associates including Air India weighed; it flagged a cautious outlook amid Iran‑war risks.

Earnings this week:

Friday: No major earnings expected

FX:

The British pound fell 0.9% versus the dollar, down the most since February 5, dropping to 1.3436 per dollar, the lowest since April 13, after Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham said he's seeking to run for Parliament, potentially opening an avenue to challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
The Japanese yen weakened past 158 per dollar after a brief overnight rally, rising 1.1% for the week on track for its biggest weekly gain since March, keeping traders on alert for possible intervention by Japanese authorities.
The offshore yuan advanced for an 11th straight session, marking its longest stretch of gains against the dollar since 2017, reaching 6.7816 per dollar, its strongest level since February 2023, as the Trump-Xi summit progressed with positive signs.
The euro slid as resilient US sales data fueled a dollar rally, with further advances in US yields threatening a breakout to the downside for EURUSD.
AUDGBP steady at 0.53899 after hitting a near three‑year high on sterling weakness amid UK political jitters (Burnham bids for Parliament).

Commodities:

Oil headed for a weekly gain of almost 7%, with WTI edging toward $102 a barrel and Brent crude closing near $106, as the crucial Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed with the US naval blockade of Iran's ports still in place.
Gold headed for a modest weekly decline of 1.2% since last Friday, trading steady near $4,650 an ounce, as war-driven surge in US inflation fueled expectations for higher interest rates, with the dollar strengthening and 10-year Treasury yields jumping.
Metals fell broadly, with LME tin, COMEX silver, and lithium carbonate dropping over 2%, while LME nickel, LME and SHFE copper also declined amid global market volatility.

Fixed income:

The 30-year Treasury yield fell to 5.012%, snapping a three-day streak of rising yields, though it remained near the fourth highest level this year and off just 0.077 percentage points from its 52-week high of 5.089%.
The 10-year Treasury yield was little changed at 4.468% after topping 4.5% earlier this week, with Treasuries trimming early gains as the market moved with oil prices and left yields near their highest levels of the year. US 2Y yield hits highest since June.
Japanese government bond futures fell as much as 32 ticks to 128.37, tracking moves in US Treasuries, as external pressures built from climbing Treasury yields and renewed yen weakness.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

Market Views: These stocks could benefit from the Trump-Xi meeting with US-China trade relations in focus

Thu, 14 May 2026 08:42:00 Z

Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.

Key Points

Investors believe the Trump-Xi meeting could boost for Chinese equities
AI stocks are seen particularly exposed to the meeting due to US chip export restrictions
China consumption plays could also benefit if it leads to a thawing in trade relations

Hopes are running high as this week’s meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping gets underway, with investors believing the summit may ease trade tensions and revive momentum in a number of sectors.

Talks are expected to focus on trade and export controls, including tariffs, semiconductor restrictions and rare earth exports.

Traders expect Trump to announce an extension to October’s tariff truce, when China agreed to halt export controls on rare earths while the US cut the fentanyl-related tariffs on the country to 10% from 20%.

On the table for discussion is the prospect of China buying more agriculture products, energy and aircraft to avoid tariff escalation. This could deliver a broad-based boost to Chinese equities thanks to a lower geopolitical risk premium, stronger yuan, improved capital flows and better confidence in Chinese tech and exports.

Any thawing in tensions on trade could be particularly important for Chinese tech firms in the AI space as they remain hampered by US chip export restrictions. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s present on the US delegation is seen as particularly important and suggests progress is likely. Reuters reported that shortly after Trump met Xi the UScleared sales of Nvidia’s H200 AI chips to a number of major Chinese technology firms, including Alibaba, Tencent, JD.com, Lenovo and Foxconn.

A thawing would be good for Chinese tech stocks, and may be most clearly expressed via China-exposed funds like the Invesco MSCI China Tech All Shares Stock Conn ETF. However, it’s worth noting that while there could be a boost from the summit in the event of some concessions, earnings growth in the China tech space remains lacklustre. The meeting could also cast more light on the divergence between mainland and Hong Kong stocks - mainland A shares are exposed more directly to the hardware part of the AI trade that is doing very well, while Hong Kong-listed tech shares are made up of internet and ecommerce stocks that are not riding the AI picks-and-shovels trade in the same way.

On the US side, Boeing stands to gain from any commitment from China to purchase more aircraft, with traders talking about the biggest-ever order. CEO Kelly Ortberg is part of the US delegation.

Another US CEO on the trip is Apple’s Tim Cook. There could be upside for the company should trade tensions and restrictions ease. China remains critical for assembly, it’s a huge end market, and tariffs and restrictions hit margins and demand simultaneously.

Micron’s CEO and Meta’s president are also along for the trip – they are facing thorny issues that could be up for discussion - eg China’s ban on Micron’s products in key information infrastructure, and restrictions against Facebook.

And if tensions cool, investors may rotate back into Chinese consumption plays such as the European luxury sector, which includes the likes of LVMH, Kering, Richemont, Burberry and Estée Lauder.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities United Kingdom Highlighted articles UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer FR US Actualites et Analyses Trump Version 2 - Investors Volatility investor TagFeed En hurtig tanke

London Quick Take - Thursday - Gilt markets edgy as Rayner enters the fray, Wall Street hits new highs as Trump meets Xi

Thu, 14 May 2026 04:58:00 Z

Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.

Can we avoid the Thucydides Trap? No, not the inevitable clash of China and the US, but the rising power of Angela Rayner coming up against the established power of Keir Starmer...? Guess we find out later. Bond markets are nervous. This is no modern-day Athens. (I wonder if Wes Streeting spend 16 minutes posing that question to Starmer yesterday and didn't like his answer?)

Angela Rayner has been cleared by HMRC, opening the door for a run at the leadership. The MP, one of the leading candidates to replace Starmer, said she had been cleared of any “wrongdoing” over a case involving underpaid tax on a flat. Handy timing...everything seems to be aligning for a leadership contest that will unease bond investors. Meanwhile Health Secretary Wes Streeting has a big decision today to pull the trigger. It’s been a volatile week for gilt markets and I expect this to continue and likely see yields print fresh multi-decade highs should a leadership contest occur.

Better news for the government on the economic front this morning with quarterly growth at +0.6%, notably with growth of +0.3% in March despite the onset of the Iran war...however there may some pull-forward in demand that month as consumers expected prices to rise. It’s backwards looking data – as good as it gets this year I reckon. Of grave concern is the outlook and the record pace at which oil stockpiles are falling, with the IEA forecasting a 1.8mn bpd shortfall this year.

Everyone is hopeful that Trump and Xi find a way to discuss Iran at their summit and find a path to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with the drop in oil supplies and jump in energy prices starting to send inflation higher. Apparently, Xi asked Trump if the US and China could avoid the Thucydides Trap as the summit kicked off – way to go to underline just how important this meeting is in term of the global geopolitical and economic order.

The US PPI inflation print came in at +1.4% month-on-month vs +0.5% expected, well above the upwardly revised +0.7% rise in March, with the April increase the largest advance since rising 1.7 percent in March 2022. Core PPI rose to +1% vs +0.4% expected, with final demand year-over-year at +6.0% vs +4.9% expected.

It comes after US CPI inflation came in at a higher-than-expected 3.8%, the highest rate since May 2023, while core inflation, climbed +2.8%, its highest since January 2025. However, unlike in 2022 the conditions for a wage price spiral do not exist this time - the labour market is balanced, and the supply shock is not coinciding with a post-pandemic goods and services demand surge. Note for instance the productivity gains evidenced by unit labour cost inflation falling to 1.2% y/y during Q1. Nevertheless, the market has been short inflation risks and remains behind the curve: Cleveland Fed nowcasting +4% CPI inflation in May and Q2 quarterly annualised now running at +6.8%...

The release of the PPI saw a reaction in equity futures, sending them lower initially as markets moved to price in a higher chance of the Fed hiking rates next rather than cutting. The case for cuts is diminishing by the day as the labour market remains in good shape and the US economy enjoys a productivity miracle. Tough moment for the new Fed chair Kevin Warsh (now confirmed) who wants to cut rates – markets like to test their mettle.

But tech stocks led the broad market higher as the S&P 500 struck a fresh record high on Wednesday despite most stocks falling. Two-thirds of stocks were down. Tech led the gains as the Nasdaq climbed 1.2%, with Nvidia +2%, Alphabet +4%. Cisco shares jumped 17% after-hours on strong guidance.

ITV said total external revenues rose +1% as Studios and Digital growth more than offset the decline in linear advertising. Studios external revs +8% thanks to selling content Netflix and Disney etc, while internal revs -7% as declining appetite for soaps and daytime programmes. The broadcaster has a perfect summer ahead with the World Cup and expects total ad revenues to rise 10% in Q2. ITVX did well and digital ad revenues rose 14%. Still in talks with Sky over the sale of its M&E business. Shares ticked higher at the open.

Burberry - revenues down 2% but a return to comparable sales growth in Q2 with profits surging on last year's levels but shares off 5% in early trade.

Watches of Switzerland shares leapt 11% after the firm upgraded profit guidance and guided for record annual revenues thanks to a strong performance in the US, where revenues grew +24%.

Spire Healthcare shares jumped 38% after revealing it had received an offer from Toscafund for 250p a shares...yet another FTSE name under the chopping block...shares up sharply but trade around 207p so market not convinced right now.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities United Kingdom Highlighted articles UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer FR US Actualites et Analyses Trump Version 2 - Investors Volatility investor TagFeed En hurtig tanke

Asia Market Quick Take – 14 May, 2026

Thu, 14 May 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 14 May, 2026

Key points:

Macro: US PPI jumped to 1.4% vs 0.5% forecast
Equities:SP500 and Nasdaq hit fresh highs
FX: USD strengthens after hot PPI data
Commodities: Copper gains for 8^th straight session
Fixed income: Yields climb on signs of inflationary pressures

------------------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

US producer prices rose 1.4% month-on-month in April 2026, the biggest gain since March 2022 and above the 0.5% forecast, with goods up 2% (including a 15.6% jump in gasoline) and services up 1.2%. Year-on-year, headline PPI increased 6%. Core PPI (excluding food and energy) climbed 1% on the month and 5.2% on the year, both above expectations.
The Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair by a 54-45 margin, the slimmest confirmation in history for the position. Warsh officially starts on May 14.
Oil inventories are falling around the world at a record pace and will continue to drop for months as the disruption to Middle East supplies from the Iran war intensifies, according to the International Energy Agency.
President Trump arrived in Beijing for his first meeting with China's Xi Jinping on Thursday. Trump downplayed the amount of attention the Iran conflict would get during the summit, saying he would prioritize trade talks.

Equities:

US: US equity indexes closed mixed on Wednesday as communication services and technology sectors led gains amid the fastest annual pace of growth in producer prices in four years. The Nasdaq jumped 1.2% to 26,402.34 and the S&P 500 climbed 0.6% to 7,444.25, both hitting fresh record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1% to 49,693.20. Cisco Systems surged as much as 19% in after-hours trading after delivering a better-than-anticipated sales forecast of $16.7 billion to $16.9 billion for the fiscal fourth quarter and announcing plans to cut fewer than 4,000 jobs. Marvell shares closed up 8.2% to $177.95 for a new record high. Nvidia, Tesla, and Apple executives joined President Trump's business delegation to China.Cerebras Systems raised $5.55bn in its US IPO, pricing at $185 a share for a c.$40bn valuation, after orders exceeded 20x the shares on offer.
EU: European stocks rebounded on Wednesday with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index rising 0.8% to 611.36. Technology stocks led the market higher as ASML Holding rose 4.8%, the biggest contributor to the index, tracking gains in Korean chipmakers. Merck KGaA rallied 6.8% as its results showed strong momentum in life sciences. The FTSE 100 rose 0.6% to 10,325.35, with British American Tobacco contributing the most to the index gain by increasing 3.7%. Germany's DAX advanced 0.8% to 24,136.81, with Infineon Technologies having the largest increase at 10.7%. Mining stocks hit a new record as copper gained for an eighth consecutive session on fears of a supply squeeze.
Asia: Asian equity markets showed mixed performance on Wednesday and opened higher on Thursday. South Korea's Kospi rose 2.6% to close at 7,844.01 on Wednesday, hitting a fresh all-time high as local retail investors bought into a wave of selling by foreign funds. Memory chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix rebounded during the day to end 1.8% and 7.7% higher respectively. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.8% or 529.54 points to 63,272.11 on Wednesday, striking a fresh all-time high as a strong earnings season continued. SoftBank Group rose 1.7% after 4Q net profit more than tripled and beat estimates, lifted by OpenAI‑linked gains.This morning, the Nikkei opened flat at 63,263.46 while the Kospi opened 0.4% higher at 7,873.91. Equity-index futures for Japan and South Korea advanced after US benchmarks closed at record highs. Alibaba and Tencent ADRs surged despite each company reporting revenue that fell short of estimates.

Earnings this week:

Thursday: Applied materials, Honda, Singapore Airlines

FX:

The dollar advanced versus most Group-of-10 peers for a third straight session as US headline and core PPI readings both exceeded estimates. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose about 0.1%.
The euro lost 0.23% to $1.1715, down for three straight sessions and hitting the lowest five pm New York rate since Tuesday, May 5, 2026. The currency faced downside pressure from diverging labor markets as euro-area employment indicators showed signs of strain.
The Chinese yuan extended a multi-day rally both onshore and offshore ahead of the Trump-Xi summit. USD/CNH fell for a 10th day to 6.7876, the longest losing streak since September 2017, defying US dollar strength.
The Japanese yen weakened with the dollar gaining 0.17% to 157.88 yen, up for three straight sessions. The return of dollar-yen to almost 158 suggests more intervention may be needed if Tokyo wants to curtail short sentiment toward the Japanese currency.
Sterling lost 0.12% to $1.3524, down for three straight sessions and hitting the lowest five pm New York rate since Wednesday, April 29, 2026. The British pound was among worst performers in the Group of 10 amid rising uncertainty over UK leadership.

Commodities:

Oil slipped in volatile trading with WTI falling 1.1% to settle at $101.02 a barrel on Wednesday, snapping a three-session winning streak. Traders awaited the pivotal Trump-Xi meeting while fresh US data suggested stockpiles have yet to drop to critical levels.
Gold held a decline near $4,700 an ounce after dropping 0.6% on Wednesday as a resurgence in US inflation reinforced bets the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer. Treasury 10-year yields rose toward the highest since July.
Copper gained for an eighth consecutive session on fears of a supply squeeze. The copper cash-to-three-month spread on the London Metal Exchange increased $18.58 from the previous trading day to -$43.52 a ton on May 13.

Fixed income:

The 30-year Treasury bond auction was awarded at 5.046%, the highest monthly result since 2007, versus a 5.041% when-issued yield at the bidding deadline. The auction tailed slightly, reflecting weaker-than-expected demand. The 30-year yield rose 0.017 percentage point to 5.046%.
Treasuries ended narrowly mixed with the curve steeper around a little-changed 10-year sector at 4.47%. Long-end tenors weakened during US morning as investors set up for the bond auction, leaving yields in the sector about 2bp cheaper on the day.
Japanese government bond yields rose as the 30-year JGB sale shaped up to be a tough one after the US sold similar-duration Treasuries at 5%. Long-term Japanese investors may decide it is worth waiting for JGBs to reach 4% before jumping in, which with the current trajectory could arrive before the end of June.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

Options Brief - CPI spike, Iran deal fades - 13 May 2026

Wed, 13 May 2026 11:17:00 Z

Two events hit markets simultaneously on Tuesday: April CPI came in at 3.8% year-on-year, slightly above the 3.7% forecast, and the US-Iran ceasefire was declared dead before the session close. Nasdaq 100 fell 0.87%. The Dow edged up 0.11%. Defensive rotation, not panic. The options market is telling a more nuanced story ...

Options Brief - CPI spike, Iran deal fades - 13 May 2026

Inflation came in above forecast and the Iran ceasefire collapsed on the same afternoon, pushing crude above 100 dollars and rotating investors out of growth names.

April US consumer prices rose 3.8% year-on-year, slightly above the 3.7% consensus forecast and the highest reading since May 2023, driven by a 3.8% monthly surge in energy costs as conflict near the Strait of Hormuz kept pressure on crude. On the same day, President Trump described Tehran's latest ceasefire proposal as unacceptable, effectively declaring the truce dead. Brent crude settled near $108 and WTI near $102. Combined, the two developments pushed the Nasdaq 100 down 0.87% and the Russell 2000 down 0.97%, while the Dow edged up 0.11% as investors rotated toward defensive names.

Market snapshot

All equity and index values are Tuesday 12 May closes. Futures represent live prices at approximately 7:20am Copenhagen time. European markets had not yet opened at time of writing.

S&P 500: 7,400.96, -0.16%
Nasdaq 100: 29,064.80, -0.87%
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 49,765.97, +0.11%
Russell 2000: 2,842.83, -0.97%
WTI crude oil: settled near $102 per barrel (Tuesday close); Brent crude near $108
Gold: $4,710, +0.50%
DAX / Euro Stoxx 50: 23,954.93 (-1.62%) / -1.48% (Tuesday closes)
Nasdaq 100 futures / S&P 500 futures: +0.41% / +0.16% (live at 7:20am CEST)
Market regime: Low Vol Bull - VIX 17.99 (Tuesday close), 20-day realised vol 9.9% (decreasing), S&P 500 +7.50% above its 50-day moving average

Options angle

VIX closed Tuesday at 17.99, having declined 2.1% on the session. Front-month VIX futures sit at 20.56, a spread of roughly 2.5 points above spot. That contango reflects residual uncertainty priced into forward vol even as near-term realised vol remains subdued.

The CBOE SKEW index (which measures the premium investors pay for out-of-the-money downside protection relative to equivalent upside exposure) holds at 139.41, signalling elevated tail-risk demand despite the nominally calm spot-vol regime.

The equity-only put/call ratio (PCCE, which measures how much protective put trading is occurring relative to bullish call activity on individual stocks) surged 14.12% on Tuesday. The total put/call ratio (PCC) climbed 10.08%. Both moves reflect a session where traders were actively adding protection. Chipmakers and megacap technology stocks fell more than 1% across the board, in line with the Nasdaq's broad decline.

When equity put/call ratios spike alongside elevated call volumes from prior weeks, it can indicate that market makers are carrying significant short-gamma exposure. Dealers in that position tend to buy on rallies and sell on declines, amplifying moves in both directions. Watch for this dynamic around the next large options expiry or a major single-stock event capable of triggering a de-hedging unwind.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it's crucial to make informed decisions.

Strategy insight - Call spreads on the Nasdaq rather than outright calls. When the CBOE SKEW index is elevated, put volatility is systematically more expensive than call volatility. That structural asymmetry makes buying outright calls comparatively cheap, and buying a call spread (buying a call at one strike and selling a call at a higher strike) cheaper still while preserving the bullish directional view. With Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.41% this morning, a defined-risk call spread costs less than an outright call and exploits the relatively inexpensive call skew.
The maximum loss is the net premium paid if the Nasdaq fails to rally through the long call strike.

Strategy insight - Protective puts on the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) while vol is still low. With 20-day realised vol at 9.9%, well below long-run averages, the premium required to buy downside protection on IWM is compressed. The Russell 2000 fell nearly 1% on Tuesday and, as a rate-sensitive, growth-heavy index, remains the equity segment most exposed to a higher-for-longer repricing if April's CPI reading hardens the Fed's stance. Buying near-term puts here costs less than it would in a more elevated vol environment, and the energy shock provides a concrete scenario where that protection pays off.
The main risk is that implied volatility continues to compress, eroding the value of the put position even if markets drift slowly lower rather than sell off abruptly.

Conclusion

Tuesday's session confirmed two things the market had been hoping to avoid: inflation is not returning to target on schedule, and the Middle East backdrop is deteriorating rather than resolving. Heading into Wednesday, US futures are attempting a modest recovery, but European markets had not yet opened at the time of writing. With no major US data on Wednesday's calendar, crude oil headlines and any Iran-related developments are likely to set the tone. The elevated SKEW and VIX futures contango suggest the market is not ready to declare an all-clear.

Related articles/content
Options Brief - Summit stakes oil surge - 12 May 2026 Options Brief - Jobs beat oil surge - 11 May 2026 Options Brief - Iran waits puts surge - 8 May 2026 Options Brief - AMD blowout vol unmoved - 7 May 2026 Options Brief - Oil retreats records set - 6 May 2026 Options Brief - Ceasefire cracks KOSPI soars - 5 May 2026 Options Brief - Apple record - Hormuz thaw - 4 May 2026

More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Scottish Mortgage values SpaceX at $1.25tn ahead of likely June IPO

Wed, 13 May 2026 09:58:00 Z

Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.

The blockbuster SpaceX IPO – rumoured to be lined up for debut in June when a rare planetary alignment occurs – is generating a huge amount of investor interest, not least among holders of Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust (SMT).

The UK investment trust put out a note defining its valuation of Elon Musk’s private space company due to the number of queries from SMT shareholders.

SMT, which is run by Edinburgh-based Baillie Gifford, says it’s holding SpaceX at a valuation of $1.25tn. The position was marked up during Q1 2026 as we saw the secondary market recalibrate and rebase to the merged valuation of SpaceX/xAI.

Scottish Mortgage said it deliberately places the current carrying value for SpaceX below the $1.75tn figure reported in the press.

Baillie Gifford and its independent third-party provider, S&P Global, value private holdings “based on verifiable transactions, not press speculation”.

Regarding lock-up terms, the fund manager said it does not yet know what restrictions will apply to existing shareholders post-listing, how long any lock-up period will last, or whether Scottish Mortgage will be subject to the same terms as other pre-IPO investors.

Scottish Mortgage first invested in SpaceX in 2018 and has invested a total of £151mn in the company since then through to 2021. The overall private company exposure by the end of March was 41.6%, well above the fund’s 30% limit, which has constrained its ability to make fresh investments in the private space.

As of the end of Q1 it said this investment was now worth £2.98bn (USD $3.94bn)– a c19.7x increase. It means SpaceX amounts to 20% of the fund’s net asset value.

SMT went through a tough period as investors questioned the value of its private book and a lack of visibility in its investments, but this has been worked through in large part thanks to the surge in SpaceX’s valuation. If the SpaceX IPO goes ahead then the % of private holdings within the fund would fall significantly.Once listed, the SpaceX holding will convert from a private asset to a publicly traded security marked to market daily, which SMT says will introduce more visible movement into our NAV.

SpaceX has been a key asset for SMT – the largest contributor to returns over 1, 3 and 5 years. Over 10 years, it is the 5th biggest contributor.

SpaceX lodged a confidential IPO filing statement with the SEC on 1st April 2026, according to various reports.

The company is said to be targeting a valuation of approximately $1.75tn and aiming to raise between $50-$75bn, which would make it the largest IPO in history.

It's believed that Elon Musk is targeting a June listing to coincided with a rare occurrence when the planets Jupiter and Venus align.

Read here for more on the funds and trusts with exposure to the IPO and check out this private equity investment trust offering investors a chance to participate in early-stage space tech companies.

Here's a look at SMT's major holdings

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities United Kingdom Highlighted articles UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer FR US Actualites et Analyses Trump Version 2 - Investors Volatility investor TagFeed En hurtig tanke

Dip bought as Jensen Huang joins Trump in China. Also: oil, gold and wheat.

Wed, 13 May 2026 09:17:00 Z

How comprehensive a US-China trade deal will we get?

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.

Links

George (not Thomas)Friedmann talks geopolitical situation, particularly Russia, US-China summit.
Bloomberg exclusive on China's massive hidden debt piles.
A brief and brutal assessment of why the UK can't get its economy back to the way it used to be, because things simply aren't the way they used to be.
A hedge fund manager on why he steers clear of tech stocks.

Questions and comments, please!

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

Grains surge as USDA wheat shock meets biofuel-driven soy demand

Wed, 13 May 2026 09:00:00 Z

Key points:

USDA projected the smallest U.S. wheat harvest since 1972, triggering sharp gains in both Chicago and Kansas wheat futures.
Hard red winter wheat production was estimated at the lowest level since 1957 following drought damage across the southern Plains.
The Bloomberg Grains Index has gained 17% YTD, supported by strong advances in soybean oil, wheat, and related biofuel-linked markets.
Managed money traders have returned aggressively to agriculture, although wheat positioning remains mixed due to continued contango focus.

Agricultural commodity markets extended their strong recovery this week after the USDA’s latest WASDE report delivered a significantly tighter-than-expected outlook for U.S. wheat production, reinforcing a broader rally across grain and oilseed markets already supported by elevated energy prices, fertilizer scarcity and renewed speculative demand.

The sharpest reaction was seen in wheat, where both Chicago soft red winter wheat and Kansas hard red winter wheat futures surged by their daily trading limits following the report. The USDA projected 2026/27 U.S. all-wheat production at 1.56 billion bushels, well below the average trade estimate near 1.74 billion bushels and the lowest annual harvest since 1972.

Most attention centered on hard red winter wheat, the high-protein variety primarily used for bread production. Output was forecast at just 515 million bushels, the smallest crop since 1957, after persistent drought conditions ravaged the southern Plains, the key production region stretching from Kansas through Oklahoma and Texas.

CBOT Wheat first month future, incl. US 2026/27 production forecast - Source: Saxo

The decline highlights how weather concerns are increasingly intersecting with broader geopolitical and macroeconomic pressures. Farmers have not only faced poor growing conditions, but also sharply higher operating costs linked to the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran. Elevated diesel prices have increased transportation and field operation costs, while fertilizer markets remain under pressure from disrupted energy and ammonia supply chains.

While corn and soybean production forecasts remained relatively stable and close to expectations, wheat stood out as the clear stress point within the grain sector. The market response reflected the growing recognition that wheat carries a more direct food-security implication than several other agricultural commodities, particularly given its importance in global staple food production alongside rice.

The broader grains complex has meanwhile continued to benefit from strong performance in soybean oil, which remains closely tied to developments in energy markets through the biofuel sector. Surging diesel and fuel prices have improved biofuel economics, lifting demand expectations for soy-based feedstocks and helping propel the Bloomberg Grains Index 17% higher year-to-date.

Within the sector, CBOT wheat has risen around 30% this year, while Kansas hard red winter wheat has advanced more than 37%. Soybean oil has been the standout performer, though gains have also spread into corn and the broader soy complex as markets increasingly price in stronger biofuel-related demand.

WisdomTree Grains UCITS ETF tracking the BCOM Grains Total Return Index - Source: Saxo

The latest rally has also triggered a significant repositioning among hedge funds and other managed money traders. According to the latest Commitment of Traders data covering the week to 5 May, a 3.3% weekly rise in the Bloomberg Agriculture Index triggered an estimated USD 6.2 billion of net buying across agriculture futures.

The combined net long across 13 major agricultural futures contracts rose above one million contracts for the first time in four years, representing a nominal value of roughly USD 57 billion. The strongest buying interest was concentrated in corn and the soy complex, reflecting both improving technical momentum and growing demand optimism linked to energy markets. Overall, the combined net long across the six major Chicago trader grains and soybean futures jumped to a record 847k contracts with the bulk concentrated in corn and the soy complex.

Wheat positioning, however, remains more nuanced than price action alone may suggest. Despite the latest rally, CBOT wheat futures recently flipped back into a net short position among managed money traders. Elevated contango structures continue to support bearish carry strategies, particularly in Chicago wheat, where abundant global feed wheat supplies still contrast with tightening conditions in higher-quality milling wheat.

A record grain and soy long held by managed money traders - Source: Saxo

Looking ahead, weather developments across the northern hemisphere growing season will remain critical. The market will also continue monitoring whether elevated energy prices sustain strong biofuel demand for soybean oil and corn-based products. For now, the grain sector appears increasingly influenced by the same macro forces driving broader commodity markets, namely energy costs, geopolitical disruption, and tightening supply chains.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

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Educational resources:
A short guide to trading crude oil
The basics of trading wheat online
A short guide to trading gold
A short guide to trading copper
A short guide to trading silver
Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?

Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

More from the author
Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on Twitter and BlueSky social media platforms

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Commodities Iran USA Inflation Crude Oil Oil Wheat Agriculture Soybean Corn

London Quick Take - Wednesday - Gilt yields dip as Starmer clings on, Wall Street slips as US inflation rises, memory stocks get a refresh

Wed, 13 May 2026 06:41:00 Z

Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.

Gilt yields eased back off multi-decade highs as Keir Starmer clings to power with doubts surfacing about just how the mechanics of ousting him will work, while the King's Speech provides some cover for a pause in Labour's internecine struggle. Starmer is refusing to stand down and basically says ‘come at me’. There are now 158 MPs backing the prime minister vs 92 who have called for his resignation. That leaves about 150 undecideds. The King’s Speech today may see a pause in the plotting, but bond markets are clearly on edge, and I would not be surprised if Cabinet resignations begin once the King is finished, or tomorrow morning. Labour unions are calling for Starmer to not lead the party into the next election. The PM has just held a meeting with one of the main would-be leaders, Wes Streeting. As of send time no one has the numbers to challenge Starmer yet.

I’ve detailed the worries about the leftwards lurch that a new Labour leadership could imply. And even if Starmer survives he will be under intense pressure to open spending taps. But I think the bigger worry is that, not only are we seeing near-term volatility in gilt markets and in sterling, but also that this episode is another nail in the coffin for deep structural concerns about the UK’s ability to find leaders who can come up with a credible plan to fix the country’s finances and deliver growth. Persistently higher gilt yields will be the price to pay from political weakness, which reduces our resilience to withstand the next crisis. Externalities are exacerbating the dynamic with the Iran war fuelling inflation and pushing expectations for yields.

After spiking yesterday to multi-decade highs gilt yields opened lower, but we are seeing them tick higher this morning as trading gets underway and markets reassess the landscape as Streeting leaves Number 10. The 30yr yield was down to 5.720% from a high yesterday at 5.833% but just ticked up to 5.76%, while the 10yr yield was earlier this morning down at 5.054% from a high yesterday as much as 5.234%, last back up towards 5.09%. Note, I do not think we see the knife being wielded on the day of the King’s Speech – no one wants to embarrass the monarch. Sterling was basically steady against the dollar but off yesterday's lows. The 20-day SMA for GBPUSD looks to have flipped from support to resistance.

European stock markets advanced early Wednesday ahead of the Trump-Xi summit with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang in tow. Investors are pinning hopes on this meeting producing some tangible progress on Iran and tariffs.

In London banks and miners are topping the gainers today with a broad risk-on move. The FTSE 100 advanced about 0.7% with Intertek leading the risers after management said they were minded to accept a final £60-a-share offer from EQT after a protracted takeover approach. Yet another FTSE name goes...still evident that UK assets trading at a discount. The final offer was values the company at about £10.6bn including debt and is a 62 % premium to its undisturbed share price. Given the global upending of supply chains and move from just-in-time to just-in-case, Intertek’s services are only going to become more in demand. Elsewhere, Vistry shares sank 10% after the housebuilder warned profits would fall substantially in the first half of the year and paused its buybacks as it’s forced to discount more. Defence name Babcock advanced +2% after another robust set of results, despite taking a £140mn hit from its rework and design changes to the Type 31 frigate.

Hotter-than-expected inflation saw Wall Street ease off record highs with the S&P 500 down 0.16% to sit on the 7,400 round number support, while the Nasdaq Composite was off 0.71% to 26,088. US CPI inflation came in at a higher-than-expected 3.8%, the highest rate since May 2023, while core inflation, climbed +2.8%, its highest since January 2025. However, there is not the firewood for a wage price spiral this time as we saw in 2022 – the labour market is balanced, whereas in 2022 there was a huge surge in demand for labour that helped push up wages. Nevertheless, the market has been short inflation risks and will need to catch up.

Apart from the CPI we saw some damage to the froth on the top of the tech rally. Chip stocks, which had led the market to record highs on Monday, reversed course with AMD, Intel and Qualcomm all sharply lower. The damage was worse in memory stocks like Micron, Sandisk, Western Digital and Seagate after senior South Korean policymaker Kim Yong-beom suggested that citizens should get a “national dividend” funded by AIprofits. Obviously, those US names are not South Korean but they were caught in the blowback.

Elsewhere, eBay rejected GameStop's unsolicited $56 billion takeover bid, calling it “neither credible nor attractive”. In its rejection letter eBay cited the “leverage” and “operational risks” of a combined company...as noted before the financing was always going to be a major hurdle.

Nuclear energy company Oklo was volatile in post-market trading after posting Q1 results detailing net income of -$33.1 million, or a $0.19 loss per share. A long-time retail favourite, Oklo generates no revenue yet but is a big bet on nuclear energy demand.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities United Kingdom Highlighted articles UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer FR US Actualites et Analyses Trump Version 2 - Investors Volatility investor TagFeed En hurtig tanke

Market Quick Take - 13 May 2026

Wed, 13 May 2026 06:33:00 Z

Market Quick Take – 13 May 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

Equities: US slipped on hotter inflation, Europe weakened on risk-off sentiment, Asia traded mixed as chip pressure offset Japan’s resilience
Volatility: VIX lower; inflation, oil and geopolitics remain in focus
Digital Assets: Bitcoin near USD 81k, ETF outflows continue
Fixed Income: US Treasury yields pushing on cycle highs. Japan’s government bonds under pressure.
Currencies: US dollar firms slightly, sterling choppy on political focus
Commodities: Wheat jumps limit up on lower U.S. production outlook, oil stays elevated, gold and silver rebound strongly
Macro events: US April PPI, US Treasury to auction 30-year T-Bonds

Macro headlines

US headline inflation rose to 3.8% YoY in Apr 2026 (vs 3.3%, above 3.7% forecast), driven by the oil shock. Energy surged 17.9%, led by gasoline (+28.4%) and fuel oil (+54.3%). Shelter (3.3%) and food (2.3%) also firmed. On a monthly basis, CPI increased 0.6% (down from 0.9% in March). Core inflation rose to 2.8% YoY (vs 2.6%, above forecast), with 0.4% MoM growth. Real wages declined for the first time in three years, while the US is issuing over $35.5bn in tariff refunds after a court ruled the policy unlawful.
The US is issuing over $35.5bn in tariff refunds after a court ruled the policy unlawful.
Japan’s current account surplus rose to a record JPY 4,681.5 billion in March 2026 from JPY 3,625.3 billion a year earlier, beating expectations. The goods surplus increased to JPY 830.5 billion as export growth of 11.7% outpaced imports at 10.0%, and the primary income surplus also widened. The secondary income deficit narrowed, while the services deficit widened sharply to JPY 257.8 billion.
The US recorded a $215 billion budget surplus in April 2026, down from $258.4 billion a year earlier and below expectations. Spending rose to $622.3 billion, led by Social Security, interest payments, Medicare, and defense, while receipts fell to $837.3 billion, mainly from income taxes. The fiscal year deficit has reached $954 billion so far this fiscal year.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0800 – IEA's Monthly Oil Market Report
0900 – Eurozone Q1 GDP estimate
1100 – US Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications
1230 – US April PPI
1430 – IEA's Weekly Crude and Fuel Stocks Report
1700 – US Treasury to Sell USD 25 billion 30-year Bonds
During the day: OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report

Earnings this week

Tuesday (yesterday): Siemens Energy, KBC Group, Bayer, Constellation Software
Wednesday (today): Cisco Systems, Siemens, Softbank Group, Deutsche Telekom, Merck, E.ON, RWE, Nebius Group
Thursday: Applied Materials, Ross Stores, Nu Holdings

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 fell 0.2%, the Nasdaq dropped 0.7%, while the Dow finished broadly flat as hotter April CPI renewed concerns that higher energy costs could pressure earnings and keep Fed rate cuts further away. Large-cap tech was mixed, with Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft and Tesla down more than 1%, while Nvidia and Apple edged higher. Chip stocks also softened, with Broadcom and AMD down around 2% on policy concerns, while Hims & Hers slumped 15% after missing first-quarter expectations. Investors now look to earnings and Fed commentary for the next steer.
Europe: European equities fell around 1%, with the STOXX 600 hitting a one-week low as hotter US inflation fed a broader risk-off move. The DAX dropped around 1.6%, the Euro STOXX 50 lost around 1.5%, and the CAC 40 fell 0.9%, while UK stocks lagged as political uncertainty weighed on banks and Vodafone came under pressure. Tech and retail led the declines, while food, beverages and healthcare held up better as investors rotated into more defensive areas. Markets now watch whether inflation concerns spill further into rates and earnings expectations.
Asia: Asian equities were mostly weaker, with the Kospi down 2.3% as chip stocks dragged on regional sentiment and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.8%. Japan’s Nikkei rose despite softer signals from futures, while most other regional markets traded lower after Wall Street’s inflation-led pullback. JD.com ADRs rose as much as 3.4% after stronger first-quarter results, helped by JD Retail strength and narrower food-delivery losses, even as net income fell sharply. Investors now watch whether US inflation pressure and weaker chip sentiment continue to weigh on the region.

Volatility

Volatility eased on Tuesday, but investors remain focused on inflation, oil and geopolitics. The VIX closed at 17.99, down 2.12%, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.16% to 7,400.96. Today’s focus shifts to US producer price inflation (PPI), crude oil inventories and the 30-year Treasury auction, with elevated oil prices and the Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing continuing to shape sentiment around inflation and interest rates.
SPX options imply an expected move of roughly 72 points, or 0.98%, into Friday’s expiry.
For today’s expiry, the near-the-money options chain continues to show a defensive skew: around the 7,400–7,415 strikes, put implied volatility sits roughly 4 percentage points above call implied volatility, signalling that investors are still paying more for downside protection than upside exposure.

Digital Assets

Digital assets traded cautiously after hotter-than-expected US inflation data reinforced expectations for higher interest rates later this year. Bitcoin held near USD 81,000, while Ether traded around USD 2,300. Crypto-related equities were weaker, with IBIT down around 1.4% at USD 45.80 and ETHA lower by roughly 2.4% at USD 17.24.
ETF flows softened further on 12 May, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs recording approximately USD 115mn in net outflows, while spot Ethereum ETFs saw around USD 40mn leave the sector. Among major altcoins, Solana traded near USD 95, XRP near USD 1.45, and Dogecoin around USD 0.11, keeping the broader crypto tone cautious rather than decisively risk-on.
Defensive positioning also remained visible in options markets, where put activity in MSTR, CRCL and ETHA outweighed selective bullish flows in COIN, IREN and IBIT.

Fixed Income

US Treasury yields rose further after the US April CPI numbers came in higher than expected, with the benchmark 2-year treasury yield crawling more than four basis points higher intraday Tuesday to tease the key 4.00% level before retreating slightly. The benchmark 10-year treasury yield rose some five basis points, sending the benchmark to its highest daily close since July of 2025 at 4.46%. A US Treasury auction of US 10-year notes saw soft demand.
Japan’s government bond yield curve steepened further, sending long-dated JGB yields to fresh cycle highs. Policy expectations for the BoJ remain anchored as the benchmark 2-year JGB yield hovers near cycle highs around 1.40%, but the benchmark 10-year JGB yield rose another two basis points to a new high since the late 1990’s at 2.58%, and the benchmark 20-year JGB briefly rose some five basis points and above 3.50%, also a new high since the late 90’s, before retreating to below 3.49%.

Commodities

Chicago wheat futures climbed by their daily trading limits on Tuesday after the USDA projected the U.S. wheat harvest will fall to the lowest level since 1972, with weather damage driving forecasts for hard red winter wheat production to a 1957 low. Before easing back during Asian trading, both contracts reached 2024 highs, leaving CBOT wheat up by around one-third year-to-date. The warning also comes at a time when surging fertilizer prices risk dampening global production further during the 2026/27 season.
Oil prices dipped after gaining around 8% over the previous three sessions as the global oil market continued to tighten amid limited prospects for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said the Iran war is unlikely to feature heavily in talks in Beijing this week, adding that “we have Iran very much under control”. That control, however, does not extend to the Strait of Hormuz, which remains effectively closed with both Iran and the U.S. maintaining naval blockades. Later today, both the IEA and OPEC will publish their Monthly Oil Market Reports.
Gold, and especially silver, rebounded strongly after Monday’s technical and momentum-driven correction attracted fresh buying ahead of key support levels, particularly in silver near USD 83. The move potentially signals an improving outlook for both precious metals despite reports that India, the world’s third-largest bullion importer, has more than doubled tariffs on gold and silver imports in an effort to defend the rupee. While the higher tariffs may temporarily dampen demand, gold remains deeply ingrained in Indian culture and long-term investment behaviour.

Currencies

The US dollar edged higher Tuesday after the US April CPI release sent US treasury yields higher and amidst ongoing uncertainty in the Hormuz Strait that is keeping oil prices elevated. EURUSD is still rangebound and drifted back to 1.1735 while the more rate-sensitive USDJPY remains elevated near 157.70, with considerable focus on the 158.00 area, which is the highest level seen since the dramatic official Japanese intervention began on April 30.
Sterling weakened Tuesday as markets weigh the risk of a PM Starmer exit as high-profile cabinet ministers are said to be counselling him to resign. Unknown is whether his replacement would be a new centrist- or more left leaning figure. EURGBP rose as high as 0.8698 Tuesday, nearly a three-week high before settling back below 0.8670, while GBPUSD almost touched 1.3500, down from above 1.3600 on Monday, before rebounding to the 1.3540 area.
The Norwegian krone continues to enjoy strong support from higher energy prices and the Norges Bank’s recent hawkish turn, with EURNOK pressing to new cycle- and three-year lows below 10.80 Tuesday and NOKSEK likewise running up to new cycle highs above 1.0100.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Advanced orders Europe Employment United States United Kingdom European Union (EU) XAUUSD USD EURUSD USDJPY Energy (Sector) Technology S P 500 index Quick Take Weekly Newsletter

Inflation hedges: Gold, energy or equities?

Wed, 13 May 2026 05:00:00 Z

Key points:

The latest US inflation print is a reminder that the inflation fight is not over. Headline inflation has moved higher again, driven by energy, food and services, while core inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s comfort zone.
Inflation risk is changing shape. This is no longer just about post-pandemic supply chains. Energy security, electrification, AI infrastructure spending, geopolitics and resource scarcity are becoming more structural sources of price pressure.
Investors may need to rethink what “defensive” means. Bonds can still play a role, but in an inflation shock they may not hedge equities as reliably. A more resilient portfolio may need exposure to pricing power, dividend growth, real assets and resource security.

Inflation is back in the conversation

The latest US inflation data has put an uncomfortable question back in front of investors: what if inflation does not return neatly to target?

The April CPI report showed headline inflation accelerating again, with energy prices doing much of the damage. Gasoline, electricity, food and services all matter because they affect households directly — and they also shape expectations. Once inflation expectations start to move, central banks have less room to ease policy even if growth starts to soften.

That is the uncomfortable part for markets. Investors have spent much of the past year waiting for rate cuts to arrive. But if inflation stays sticky, the Fed may have to stay cautious for longer. That means higher discount rates, more pressure on long-duration assets and less confidence that bonds will always rescue portfolios when equities wobble.

The bigger point is this: inflation may no longer be a short-term cyclical problem. It may be becoming a more persistent investment regime.

Why inflation could remain higher for longer

There are four structural reasons why inflation risk may be harder to kill this time.

1. Energy is no longer just a commodity cycle

Energy prices are increasingly tied to geopolitics, national security and supply-chain resilience. The Iran conflict has reminded markets how quickly oil and fuel costs can feed into inflation through transportation, utilities, food and consumer goods.

Even if the immediate geopolitical premium fades, the world is still operating with fragile energy supply chains, underinvestment in some traditional energy assets and rising demand from electrification. That creates a more inflation-sensitive backdrop than the pre-pandemic world.

2. Electrification is expensive before it is deflationary

The energy transition requires massive spending on grids, power equipment, copper, storage, renewables, nuclear, transmission and backup capacity. Over the long term, this may improve efficiency and energy security. But in the near term, it means more demand for metals, equipment, engineering capacity and skilled labour.

That can keep capital costs elevated and create bottlenecks. Electrification is not just a green story. It is also an inflation and infrastructure story.

3. AI capex is creating a new demand shock

AI is often described as deflationary because it could eventually lift productivity. That may be true — but the productivity boost is likely to arrive later.

The costs are arriving now.

AI requires data centres, chips, servers, memory, cooling, electricity, grid upgrades and land. Hyperscaler spending is already running at enormous scale, and the competition to secure power and compute is intensifying. This can support a powerful investment cycle, but it can also add pressure to electricity demand, copper, advanced manufacturing capacity and selected parts of the labour market.

In simple terms: AI may lower costs tomorrow, but it is raising demand for scarce resources today.

4. Globalisation is no longer the same disinflationary force

For decades, globalisation helped keep prices low. Companies could outsource production, optimise supply chains and rely on just-in-time logistics. That model is changing.

Tariffs, export controls, reshoring, friend-shoring and national security priorities all point to a less efficient but more resilient global supply chain. Resilience is valuable, but it is rarely cheap.

For investors, this means inflation risk may come not only from strong demand, but also from the higher cost of security, redundancy and strategic independence.

What is an inflation hedge?

An inflation hedge is an asset that may help protect purchasing power when prices rise. In simple terms, it is something that can either rise with inflation, generate income that can grow with inflation, or hold its value when cash is losing value.

But there is no single perfect inflation hedge. Gold, silver, energy, commodities, real assets, equities and inflation-linked bonds all behave differently. The right lens is not “which asset is best?” but “what kind of inflation are we trying to protect against?”

For investors, the inflation toolkit can be simplified into five buckets.

1. Precious metals: silver over gold?

Gold is the classic inflation hedge. It tends to attract demand when investors worry about currency debasement, central-bank credibility, geopolitical risk or financial-system stress. It is simple, liquid and widely understood.

But in the current environment, silver may have a stronger story than gold in some scenarios.

Why? Because silver has two roles. Like gold, it is a precious metal, so it can benefit when investors are looking for protection against inflation, currency weakness or geopolitical stress. But both gold and silver can be curbed by higher bond yields and a stronger US dollar, because neither pays income and dollar strength can make precious metals less attractive. Silver has one extra offset: meaningful industrial demand. It is used in solar panels, electronics, electric vehicles and other areas linked to electrification, which gives it a potential “inflation hedge plus growth” angle when the macro backdrop is still supportive.

Gold may be more attractive when the market is worried about crisis, currency debasement or falling real yields. Silver may be more attractive when inflation is linked to industrial demand, electrification and a risk-on market backdrop.

How investors may access this theme:

Gold ETFs or physical gold
Silver ETFs
Precious-metals funds
Gold or silver miners, with higher equity risk

Key risk: Silver is usually more volatile than gold. It can fall sharply if industrial demand weakens, real yields rise or the US dollar strengthens. Gold can also struggle when real yields rise because it does not pay income.

2. Energy and commodities: the most direct inflation link

Energy is often the most direct inflation hedge because energy prices feed into almost everything — transport, utilities, food, manufacturing and consumer goods.

This matters now because energy inflation is no longer just about the oil cycle. It is also about geopolitics, energy security, underinvestment, electrification and AI power demand. Data centres need electricity. Electrification needs grids and metals. Supply disruptions can quickly push fuel and power prices higher.

Commodities extend this idea beyond oil and gas. Copper, uranium, industrial metals and selected agricultural commodities can all matter when inflation is driven by physical scarcity or infrastructure demand.

For retail investors, it may be useful to separate the commodity bucket into three parts:

Energy: oil, gas, LNG, energy producers and energy infrastructure
Metals: copper, silver, uranium and miners linked to electrification or energy security
Broad commodities: diversified commodity funds that spread exposure across energy, metals and agriculture

How investors may access this theme:

Energy ETFs
Integrated oil majors
Oil and gas producers
Pipeline and LNG infrastructure companies
Broad commodity ETFs
Metals or mining ETFs

Key risk: Commodities are volatile. Energy and mining stocks can fall if global growth weakens, commodity prices reverse, or inflation turns into demand destruction.

3. Hard assets: owning what the world needs more of

Hard assets are physical assets that may become more valuable when replacement costs rise. These include infrastructure, utilities, pipelines, power grids, data centres, telecom towers and selected real estate.

This bucket is important because inflation today is increasingly linked to the real economy. AI needs data centres. Data centres need power. Power needs grids. Electrification needs copper, storage and transmission. The digital economy may look weightless, but it is becoming more physical — and more expensive to build.

Hard assets may help because some have long-term contracts, regulated returns, inflation-linked pricing or exposure to essential services. They can also benefit from the need to rebuild and expand infrastructure.

How investors may access this theme:

Infrastructure ETFs
Listed infrastructure companies
Utilities
Pipeline companies
Data-centre REITs
Selected real estate investment trusts

Key risk: Hard assets are often sensitive to interest rates. If bond yields rise sharply, utilities, REITs and infrastructure stocks can come under pressure even when their long-term demand story remains intact.

4. Equities: dividend plays and quality stocks with pricing power

Equities are not usually the first asset people think of as an inflation hedge. But the right equities can play an important role.

The key is to focus on companies that can protect earnings when costs rise.

There are two useful types:

Dividend growers

Inflation erodes fixed income. A bond coupon that stays the same becomes less valuable when prices rise. Dividend growth stocks may help because their income stream has the potential to rise over time.

The focus should not be the highest dividend yield. A very high yield can sometimes be a warning sign. The stronger signal is a company that can keep growing dividends from sustainable earnings and free cash flow.

Quality stocks with pricing power

Some companies can raise prices without losing too many customers. These are usually businesses with strong brands, essential products, recurring revenues, global scale or dominant market positions.

Examples may include selected consumer staples, healthcare companies, payment networks, software companies, exchanges, data providers and quality industrials.

How investors may access this theme:

Dividend growth stocks or ETFs
Dividend aristocrat ETFs
Quality equity ETFs
Consumer staples, healthcare or quality-factor funds

Key risk: These are still equities. They can fall if valuations are stretched, earnings weaken, bond yields rise or consumers push back against higher prices.

5. Bonds: selective, not blanket exposure

Bonds are traditionally seen as defensive. But in an inflation shock, they may not provide the same protection.

If inflation rises and bond yields rise with it, bond prices can fall at the same time as equities. That is why investors may need to be more selective with fixed income when inflation risk is high.

Inflation-linked bonds, such as US TIPS, are one option. Their principal adjusts with inflation, so they can be more directly linked to realised inflation than ordinary bonds. Short-duration inflation-linked bond funds may reduce some interest-rate sensitivity compared with longer-duration funds.

Cash and short-duration bonds can also play a role because they give investors flexibility and reduce exposure to long-duration rate risk.

How investors may access this theme:

TIPS ETFs
Inflation-linked bond funds
Short-duration bond funds
Treasury bills or high-quality short-term cash instruments

Key risk: Inflation-linked bonds are not magic. They can still lose value if real yields rise sharply. Longer-duration bonds are especially vulnerable when inflation keeps central banks cautious.

A simple way to think about inflation hedges

Different inflation hedges work in different environments:

Crisis or currency concern: gold may work better.
Inflation plus industrial growth: silver and copper may be more interesting.
Energy shock: energy stocks, energy ETFs and energy infrastructure may be more direct.
Infrastructure and AI power demand: hard assets, grids, utilities and data centres may be relevant.
Sticky inflation with resilient growth: dividend growers and pricing-power stocks may help.
Inflation expectations without too much real-yield pressure: TIPS may be useful.

Bottom line

Inflation is not dead. It is changing shape.

The next phase may be less about pandemic bottlenecks and more about energy security, electrification, AI capex, geopolitics and the cost of rebuilding supply-chain resilience. AI may eventually deliver productivity gains, but the investment boom comes first — and that investment boom needs power, chips, metals, cooling and infrastructure.

For investors, the answer is not to chase one inflation hedge. It is to build a broader resilience framework.

That means asking:

Which companies can raise prices?
Which companies can grow cash flows and dividends?
Which assets benefit from infrastructure replacement and power demand?
Which resources become more strategically important in a fragmented world?

Portfolios built only for falling inflation may need a rethink. The world ahead may require a different definition of defence: not just safety from volatility, but resilience against the rising cost of everything.

Charu Chanana

Chief Investment Strategist

Saxo

Topics: Equities Equities Theme - Dividend growth High Dividend Dividend yield Income investor – Dividend Theme - Precious metals Theme Category - Commodities Commodities Income investor – Bonds Bonds Macro Digest Central Banks

Should you sell in May and go away? Why market timing can cost more than you think

Tue, 12 May 2026 13:30:00 Z

Key points:

Seasonal patterns exist, but they are not reliable enough to run a long-term portfolio.
Staying invested usually beats jumping in and out based on the calendar.
May is a useful reminder to review risk, not to abandon discipline.

Every May, investors meet the same old market rhyme: “sell in May and go away”. It sounds tidy, decisive and pleasantly lazy. Sell now, enjoy the summer, come back when markets behave again. Sadly, markets did not receive the memo.

The saying has some history behind it. The original British version told investors to sell in May and return around St Leger’s Day, a famous horse race in September. It came from a world where wealthy investors left London for the countryside and market activity slowed. A charming image, but not exactly a robust investment process for 2026.

This year, the question feels especially tempting. The Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) closed at a fresh record high. That came despite high oil prices, geopolitical tension around the United States and Iran, and a market still heavily supported by artificial intelligence (AI) enthusiasm.

So, after a strong run, should investors take the seasonal hint and step away? The better answer is more boring, which in investing is often a compliment: review the portfolio, but do not let a rhyme drive the bus.

The calendar has a point, but not a crystal ball

The “sell in May” argument is not pure superstition. Historical data shows that the six months from May to October have often been weaker than the six months from November to April.

Historical data gives the old rhyme some support, but only some. Fidelity notes that since 1945 through April 2026, the S&P 500 gained about 2% on average from May to October, compared with roughly 7% from November to April. Reuters, citing CFRA data, gives a similar message: the long-term May to October return is weaker than the November to April stretch.

That is worth knowing. It means seasonality can describe market weather. But it does not tell you exactly when to leave the house.

The problem is variation and the recent picture is less tidy. Reuters also found that, over the past decade, the May-to-October period returned about 7% on average, including a 22.1% gain in 2025. In other words, the “bad” months have often been rather good. Markets can be rude like that.

The 2026 backdrop also complicates the picture. It is a US midterm election year, and Reuters notes that in five of the last 10 midterm years, the S&P 500 declined from May to October, with an average loss of about 1.5%. That is a reason for risk awareness. It is not a reason to confuse the calendar with a smoke alarm.

The real cost is missing the rebound

Market timing sounds sensible because it promises control. Sell before trouble, buy back after trouble. Easy, except for the minor issue that nobody rings a bell at either moment.

The biggest risk is missing strong days. Market rebounds often arrive quickly, usually when the headlines still look unpleasant. That is why long-term investors can damage returns by stepping out and waiting for “clarity”. Clarity is expensive. By the time everyone feels calm, prices may already have moved.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management research shows that staying fully invested in the S&P 500 over the last 20 years delivered far stronger annualised returns than missing just the 10 best days. The exact numbers change with the period studied, but the lesson does not: a small number of good days can do a large amount of work.

Note: Saxo Bank framework based on J.P. Morgan analysis.

This matters for investors because most portfolios are built for goals, not seasons. Retirement, education savings, house deposits and long-term wealth building do not run on a May to October schedule. They need time, diversification and behaviour that survives bad headlines. That does not mean doing nothing. It means doing the right kind of something.

2026 is a review moment, not an exit signal

The current market has real risks. US equities sit near record highs. AI-linked shares have carried a large part of the enthusiasm. Oil prices remain elevated as geopolitical risks keep inflation worries alive.

Corporate earnings have been strong, but the bar is now higher. At the same time, market sentiment remains fragile, and the rally has been relatively narrow. Investors still like the story, but it is being carried by a small group of heavy lifters. That is the useful message for 2026. The issue is not whether May is dangerous. The issue is whether a portfolio has become too dependent on one market, one theme or one outcome.

A long-term investor can use May as a check-up. Are shares still aligned with the time horizon? Is the portfolio too concentrated in US technology? Is there enough exposure to other regions, sectors or asset classes? Is there cash for near-term needs, so market volatility does not force bad selling? That is more practical than disappearing for the summer and hoping September sends an invitation.

Risks to watch

The first risk is inflation. If oil prices stay high, transport, energy and production costs can rise again. That could make central banks less comfortable cutting interest rates. Investors should watch oil prices, bond yields and inflation releases.

The second risk is narrow leadership. If only a handful of AI and mega-cap technology stocks drive the market, index gains may hide weakness underneath. Watch market breadth, which simply means how many stocks are participating in the rally.

The third risk is complacency. Record highs can make investors feel safer than they are. Valuation matters more when expectations are already warm. A good company can still be a poor investment if too much optimism is already priced in.

Investor playbook

Review concentration. Check whether one region, sector or theme now dominates the portfolio.
Rebalance gradually. Bring positions back toward target weights instead of making all-or-nothing moves.
Keep cash matched to needs. Money needed soon should not depend on summer market behaviour.
Use regular investing. Monthly contributions can reduce the pressure to pick the perfect entry point.

A rhyme is not a strategy

The old rhyme survives because it is catchy. That does not make it a strategy. In 2026, “sell in May and go away” is best treated as a reminder to check risk, not a command to abandon the market. Seasonality can inform investors, but discipline, diversification and time usually do more of the heavy lifting. The calendar may whisper. A long-term plan should speak louder.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead

Silver breaks higher as investors rediscover its dual appeal

Tue, 12 May 2026 09:00:00 Z

Key points:

Silver surged 15% in the past week, with Monday’s breakout above USD 82–83 triggering fresh momentum and technical buying.
The metal continues to benefit from its dual role as both a precious and industrial metal, with copper’s record rally reinforcing demand expectations.
Gold’s relative underperformance following Modi’s call for a pause in Indian gold buying helped accelerated a drop in the gold-silver ratio to a two-month low near 55.
The short-term outlook now hinges on whether silver can hold above the former breakout zone and thereby avoid renewed long liquidation.

Silver has suddenly burst higher, reigniting excitement among traders who successfully rode last year’s rally before the bubble burst in late January, triggering an almost 50% correction through March. Since then, the metal has staged a strong recovery, with momentum accelerating over the past week as the white metal rallied 15%, lifting its year-to-date return to around 20%, while still trading more than 150% above year-ago levels.

XAGUSD surged to a two-month high near USD 88 earlier today, extending Monday’s 7% rally before surrendering part of the gain as higher oil prices lifted both bond yields and the dollar. Even so, the latest move has, for now at least, changed the short-term technical outlook, with the break above the USD 82–83 resistance area triggering renewed buying from hedge funds and other momentum-focused investors that had remained largely sidelined in recent weeks.

Spot Silver - Source: Saxo

The move also reflects silver’s high-beta credentials relative to gold, with the white metal benefiting from its dual appeal as both an investment and industrial metal. Gold, meanwhile, continues to consolidate, with its latest inability to fully join the silver rally partly linked to concerns that higher energy prices may delay rate cuts, but also to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent call for Indians to pause gold purchases for at least a year in an attempt to ease pressure on the country’s foreign-exchange reserves and weakening rupee.

That development has helped drive the gold-silver ratio sharply lower to around 55, the lowest since early March, highlighting silver’s current outperformance. The ratio has once again fallen well below the near-70 average seen for almost three decades. Gold, meanwhile, remains rangebound, with support established ahead of USD 4,500, while resistance is found at the 50-day moving average near USD 4,757, followed by USD 4,850.

Spot Gold - Source: Saxo

Industrial demand adds support

Beyond the technical breakout, silver is also drawing support from a rapidly strengthening industrial metals complex. Copper futures in both New York and London recorded fresh record closing highs on Monday, driven by strong Chinese demand, sharply declining visible inventories, and growing concerns about future supply availability.

As a key transition metal used across electrification, renewable energy, electronics, AI infrastructure, and automotive production, silver continues to benefit from many of the same structural themes currently supporting copper. In recent weeks, traders have increasingly looked past the potential economic slowdown risks tied to the Middle East conflict and instead focused on the growing challenge of securing sufficient supply of strategically important metals.

The ongoing disruption to trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz has added another layer of uncertainty to an already tightening supply outlook. While silver itself is not directly dependent on Gulf exports, the conflict has contributed to rising energy, freight, and refining costs across multiple commodity supply chains, thereby reinforcing broader inflation and resource scarcity concerns.

Fundamentally, silver also remains supported by another expected annual supply deficit at a time when both physical and investment demand remain firm, especially in China, where local demand for precious and industrial metals has stayed elevated despite broader economic concerns. Importantly, silver mine supply tends to respond slowly to higher prices because much global production comes as a by-product of lead, zinc, copper, and gold mining.

HG Copper - Source: Saxo

Focus turns to support levels

The latest rally nevertheless carries short-term risks. After such a violent rebound, the market now needs confirmation that the breakout can stick, not least given the potentially speculative nature of the latest run-up. A sustained hold above the former breakout area around USD 82–83 would likely encourage additional systematic and momentum-driven buying. However, a failure back below that zone could trigger renewed long liquidation from recently established bullish positions.

For now, silver appears to have regained a narrative that had been missing earlier this year: a market supported not only by precious metals demand and geopolitical uncertainty, but increasingly by structural industrial demand at a time when global supply growth remains constrained.

Beyond developments in gold, traders will continue to watch the Middle East conflict closely given its impact on the dollar, bond yields, and inflation expectations, while today’s US CPI report for April may provide additional near-term direction. Consensus expects headline inflation to moderate to 3.3% year-on-year, while core inflation is seen edging higher to 2.7%.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

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11 May 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 5 May 2026 8 May 2026: Gold holds firm as central banks and investors look beyond price 3 May 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 28 April 2026 1 May 2026: Commodities rally broadens in April as Middle East disruption tightens global supply chains 30 April 2026: Gold rises with oil as geopolitical risk overwhelms rate headwinds 29 April 2026: Crude rally extends as Strait disruption continues OPECs role tested after UAE exit 28 April 2026: Precious metals face near-term pressure from oil-driven inflation 27 April 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 21 April 2026 24 April 2026: Commodities weekly From fuel shortages to food risks as Hormuz remains shut 22 April 2026: Severe supply disruption meets rising demand destruction as Hormuz closure persists 20 April 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 14 April 2026 14 April 2026: Precious metals rebuild as macro tailwinds return but gold awaits breakout confirmation 13 April 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to April 7 2026 10 April 2026: Commodities weekly Energy slumps but physical oil stress keeps the market on edge 9 April 2026: Crude rebounds toward USD 100 as Hormuz bottlenecks keep physical market tight 8 April 2026: Gold correction meets macro reset as ceasefire reverses key headwinds 7 April 2026: Europe's gas market shifts from stress to relief but the real test still lies ahead 7 April 2026: WTI above Brent a curve distortion not a benchmark inversion 7 April 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 31 March 2026 1 April 2026: Commodities monthly Energy surge and second-round effects dominate as metals correct Educational resources: A short guide to trading crude oil The basics of trading wheat online A short guide to trading gold A short guide to trading copper A short guide to trading silver Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment? Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

Related articles/content

11 May 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 5 May 2026
8 May 2026: Gold holds firm as central banks and investors look beyond price
3 May 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 28 April 2026
1 May 2026: Commodities rally broadens in April as Middle East disruption tightens global supply chains
30 April 2026: Gold rises with oil as geopolitical risk overwhelms rate headwinds
29 April 2026: Crude rally extends as Strait disruption continues OPECs role tested after UAE exit
28 April 2026: Precious metals face near-term pressure from oil-driven inflation
27 April 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 21 April 2026
24 April 2026: Commodities weekly From fuel shortages to food risks as Hormuz remains shut
22 April 2026: Severe supply disruption meets rising demand destruction as Hormuz closure persists
20 April 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 14 April 2026
14 April 2026: Precious metals rebuild as macro tailwinds return but gold awaits breakout confirmation
13 April 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to April 7 2026
10 April 2026: Commodities weekly Energy slumps but physical oil stress keeps the market on edge
9 April 2026: Crude rebounds toward USD 100 as Hormuz bottlenecks keep physical market tight
8 April 2026: Gold correction meets macro reset as ceasefire reverses key headwinds
7 April 2026: Europe's gas market shifts from stress to relief but the real test still lies ahead
7 April 2026: WTI above Brent a curve distortion not a benchmark inversion
7 April 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 31 March 2026
1 April 2026: Commodities monthly Energy surge and second-round effects dominate as metals correct

Educational resources:
A short guide to trading crude oil
The basics of trading wheat online
A short guide to trading gold
A short guide to trading copper
A short guide to trading silver
Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?

Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

More from the author
Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on Twitter and BlueSky social media platforms

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Commodities Iran USA Inflation Crude Oil Oil Gold Silver

Korean politician pops the chip vibe. Sterling under pressure.

Tue, 12 May 2026 08:57:00 Z

Chips clipped in Asia. Starmer government wobbling with Gilts.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.

Questions and comments, please!

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

Options Brief - Summit stakes, oil surge - 12 May 2026

Tue, 12 May 2026 06:58:00 Z

Monday’s equity session printed record closes - and VIX rose 7% on the same day. That contradiction is today’s entire story. The 1-day VIX fell 9% while the 9-day VIX surged 19%, producing a kink in the volatility term structure that lands almost exactly on the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing on May 14-15. With Iran now crowding the summit agenda per Treasury Secretary Bessent, and ...

Options Brief - Summit stakes, oil surge - 12 May 2026

Monday’s record closes masked two competing forces - and the options market is pricing exactly which one matters most over the next four days.

Equities closed Monday at record levels before a late-session reversal driven by oil, which surged more than 2% as Trump rejected Iran’s latest diplomatic overture and Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions showed no sign of resolution. Heading into Tuesday, the dominant forward catalyst is the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing on May 14–15 - a meeting that was expected to centre on formalising the existing tariff framework (US duties at 30%, China’s at 10%, under an extension running through November 2026) but which the Iran war is now threatening to crowd. Treasury Secretary Bessent has already flagged Iran as a summit priority, raising the risk that progress on trade, rare earths, and a permanent bilateral framework gets sidelined.

Market snapshot

Records on thin breadth, oil surging on Hormuz disruption - a session split between tech optimism and geopolitical risk.

S&P 500: Closed Monday at 7,412.84 (+0.19%), a record close, though breadth was notably thin - only 37.8% of US issues advanced, with gains concentrated in semiconductors and hardware names.
Nasdaq 100: Added 0.29% to 29,320.66, with technology the clear session leader.
Russell 2000: Rose 0.33% to 2,870.64, outpacing both large-cap indices - consistent with smaller, domestically focused companies responding more directly to shifts in the trade outlook.
Energy: WTI crude oil settled near $98 per barrel on Monday, up more than 2% on the session, as Trump rejected Iran’s latest overture and Saudi Aramco warned of sustained Hormuz supply losses running at approximately 100 million barrels per week.
Market regime: Neutral/Chop - VIX 18.4, 20-day realised vol 10.2% (decreasing), S&P 500 +7.84% above its 50-day moving average.

Options angle

The VIX term structure is pricing one specific event with unusual surgical precision - and the flow data confirms traders are already defensively positioned.

VIX closed Monday at 18.38 (+6.92%), an unusual divergence from equities - traders were building hedges even as indices rallied to records. The vol term structure makes that hedging activity strikingly precise: the 1-day VIX (VIX1D) fell 9.3% to 11.52, while the 9-day VIX (VIX9D) surged 18.9% to 16.89, producing a sharp kink in the curve that spans almost exactly the May 14–15 summit window. The options market is not broadly fearful; it is specifically fearful of a well-defined event in four days. The VIX3M/VIX ratio - which compares three-month implied volatility to the near-term spot level - fell 3.1% to 1.16, confirming that near-term volatility is rising faster than longer-dated expectations: the term structure is flattening urgently, not gradually. The CBOE SKEW index (SKEW), which measures the premium investors pay for out-of-the-money downside protection relative to equivalent upside exposure, rose to 140.21 (+1.45%), and the CBOE S&P 500 index put/call ratio (PCCI) spiked 12.0% to 1.154 - protective put buying is the dominant flow theme, consistent with the Iran-crowded summit agenda raising the probability that markets receive less trade clarity than hoped for. Front-month VIX futures are trading at 21.05, nearly three points above spot VIX, reflecting structural demand for near-term vol that shows no sign of unwinding ahead of the summit.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.

Strategy insight – Put spread over outright put. SKEW at 140 means that deep out-of-the-money downside protection carries a steep premium - outright put buyers are paying significantly above the cost of equivalent protection at a more moderate distance from spot. A put spread - buying a put at one strike and simultaneously selling a put at a lower strike - delivers comparable downside coverage at considerably lower net cost by recycling some of that elevated put premium back into the structure. With the summit agenda complicated by Iran, the downside scenario (less trade progress than expected, or diplomatic friction) carries real probability, and a put spread is the cost-efficient way to hedge it without overpaying for tail protection that may not materialise. The maximum loss is the net premium paid - the full cost of protection if markets continue higher and the spread expires unexercised.

Strategy insight – IWM call spread for a summit upside surprise. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), which tracks domestically focused US small-cap companies, is more sensitive to trade conditions than large-cap indices - its 0.33% outperformance on Monday reflects that sensitivity. With the PCCI elevated and the options market already defensively positioned, the summit’s risk-reward is asymmetric in an interesting direction: a disappointing outcome is already substantially priced in through elevated put-to-call ratios, which means any positive surprise - meaningful progress on the tariff framework or a formal “Board of Trade” agreement - would likely produce an outsized move higher in trade-sensitive names like IWM. Buying a call spread on IWM - purchasing a call at or near the current level and selling a call at a higher strike - positions for that asymmetric upside at defined and relatively low cost, without requiring conviction on an outcome no one can predict. The maximum loss is the net premium paid if IWM fails to rally beyond the lower strike before expiry.

Conclusion

Monday printed record closes on thin breadth and late-day oil headwinds - a session that told two different stories at the index and market-structure level simultaneously. The options market is responding with surgical precision: VIX1D quiet, VIX9D sharply elevated, SKEW at 140, PCCI spiking. The summit in four days is the event, and with Iran now competing for the agenda, the probability of a clean, trade-focused outcome has diminished. Heading into today’s open, the combination of a put spread for downside and an IWM call spread for upside surprise captures the asymmetry without requiring a directional call on a summit no one can fully predict.

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Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

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Cerebras IPO: the dinner-plate chip testing Wall Street’s AI appetite

Tue, 12 May 2026 06:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

Cerebras is testing demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure beyond Nvidia’s dominant graphics processing units.
The company’s pitch is speed: faster artificial intelligence answers, not just bigger model training.
The main risks are valuation, customer concentration and turning huge demand into durable profits.

Artificial intelligence has spent the past few years eating capital, electricity and investor attention. Now the next question is simpler: can it answer faster, cheaper and at scale?

That is the promise behind Cerebras Systems, the artificial intelligence (AI) chip company preparing for one of the year’s most watched initial public offerings (IPO). According to Bloomberg, citing Reuters sources, investor demand appears strong enough that Cerebras is considering both a higher price range and a larger share sale.

In plain English, the market may already be willing to pay more before the stock has even started trading. The reported price range could rise to 150 to 160 USD per share, from 115 to 125 USD, while the offering could increase to 30 million shares. At the top end, Cerebras could raise about 4.8 billion USD ahead of its expected pricing on 13 May 2026. That makes the IPO not just a company event, but a useful temperature check for the market’s appetite for AI infrastructure.

That is not a quiet debut. It is more like entering a library with a marching band. For long-term investors, the Cerebras IPO is not only about one company. It is a test of how much the market is willing to pay for the next layer of AI infrastructure. It also shows that the AI race is widening from one dominant chip supplier into a more complex ecosystem of chips, cloud platforms, power, cooling and specialised hardware.

From training the brain to serving the coffee

Cerebras builds chips and systems for artificial intelligence workloads. Its flagship design is different from the standard graphics processing unit (GPU), the type of chip Nvidia has made famous. Cerebras uses wafer-scale chips, which are much larger and designed to keep more computing, memory and data movement close together.

The simple idea is this: less waiting, more answering. That matters because AI is shifting from training to inference. Training is when a model learns from huge amounts of data. Inference is when that model actually responds to a user. Every chatbot answer, coding suggestion, voice response or AI agent task needs inference. It is the practical side of AI, where the bill arrives every time someone asks a question.

Cerebras says its Wafer-Scale Engine 3 can deliver inference up to 15 times faster than leading GPU-based systems on some benchmarked models. Investors should treat company benchmarks with care, but the direction is clear. Speed is becoming a selling point, especially as companies try to build AI products that feel instant rather than “please wait while the future loads”.

This does not mean Cerebras is replacing Nvidia everywhere. Nvidia has a broad hardware and software ecosystem, deep customer relationships and a scale advantage that is difficult to copy. But the Cerebras IPO shows that customers want different tools for different jobs. AI may not be a one-chip kingdom forever.

Wall Street loves a scarce shovel

The reported demand for Cerebras shares is the market reaction before the stock even starts trading. Reuters said orders for the IPO were more than 20 times the available shares. If completed on the reported terms, it could become the world’s largest IPO so far in 2026. That tells us two things.

First, investors remain hungry for AI infrastructure. The public market already has many ways to buy the AI story, from Nvidia to cloud companies and semiconductor equipment makers. But there are fewer pure-play AI chip IPOs. Scarcity can make investors behave like diners who see the last dessert on the menu.

Second, the valuation bar is high. Cerebras reported revenue of 510 million USD in 2025, up strongly from 2024. But it is still building scale, and operating losses remain a concern. A fast-growing company can justify a high valuation, but only if revenue turns into cash flow over time. Backlog is useful. Booked demand is useful. Actual profitable delivery is better.

This is where OpenAI and Amazon matter. OpenAI agreed in January 2026 to add 750 megawatts of low-latency Cerebras compute through 2028. Amazon Web Services also announced a partnership in March 2026 to offer Cerebras chips in its cloud infrastructure. These are serious customers, not hobbyists testing a new gadget in the garage.

Still, customer concentration remains a key issue. Cerebras has relied heavily on a small number of large customers, including customers linked to the United Arab Emirates. New contracts may reduce that risk, but investors need proof over time.

The bigger lesson: ecosystem over icon

The Cerebras story fits a broader theme in AI investing: the winners may not sit in one neat basket. AI needs chips, memory, networking, cloud platforms, data centres, electricity and cooling. It also needs software that customers actually use. That creates opportunities across the value chain, but also more ways for expectations to outrun reality.

For investors, the useful point is not to find “the next Nvidia” as if markets hand out sequel tickets. It is to understand which part of the AI buildout a company serves. Nvidia remains central to training and many inference workloads. Cerebras wants to own a specialised slice where speed and low latency matter most. Amazon wants more control over cloud economics. OpenAI wants more compute options. Everyone wants fewer bottlenecks.

That makes Cerebras a signal. It suggests AI infrastructure demand is still strong, but also that the market is beginning to separate different workloads, different chips and different business models.

Risks to watch

The first risk is valuation. A hot IPO can price in years of success before public investors get a normal trading day. If expectations start in the clouds, even a small disappointment can feel like bad weather.

The second risk is execution. Cerebras must deliver complex systems, expand capacity, support large customers and prove that its performance advantage works outside controlled benchmarks. Watch for delays in Amazon’s rollout, slower OpenAI deployment or weak conversion of backlog into revenue.

The third risk is concentration and regulation. A few large customers can lift growth quickly, but they can also create sharp drops if contracts change. National security scrutiny previously affected Cerebras’ IPO path, so investors should not ignore geopolitics. Chips are tiny, but the politics around them are not.

Investor playbook

Treat the IPO as a signal about AI infrastructure demand, not a guarantee of returns.
Watch backlog conversion, operating losses and customer mix after listing.
Compare Cerebras with the full AI supply chain, not only Nvidia.
Keep position sizing tied to uncertainty, especially after any first-day surge.

The AI race gets more lanes

Cerebras is arriving at a useful moment. The AI story is moving from “who trains the biggest model?” to “who makes AI fast, cheap and reliable enough to use every day?” That is a healthier and more practical question for investors. The company’s dinner-plate chip may capture imaginations, but the real test is less photogenic: revenue quality, customer diversity, margins and execution.

The IPO may be loud, and perhaps deservedly so. But long-term investors do not need to catch every shiny object as it flies past. Sometimes the smarter move is to watch what the market is really telling us: the AI race is still running, but the track now has more lanes.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles Artificial Intelligence Theme - Artificial intelligence IPO Initial Public Offering (IPO)

Market Quick Take - 12 May 2026

Tue, 12 May 2026 06:17:00 Z

Market Quick Take – 12 May 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

Equities: US edged higher on AI optimism, Europe lagged on oil and luxury weakness, Asia rose as Korea’s chip rally widened.
Volatility: VIX firmer, oil and CPI in focus, downside hedging persists
Digital Assets: Bitcoin steady above USD 81k, ETF flows mixed, crypto equities outperform
Fixed Income: Global bond yields rise ahead of US CPI release.
Currencies: USD up, JPY down ahead of US CPI as yield rise. Sterling eyes shaky Starmer government
Commodities: Oil remains bid, silver surges on fresh momentum buying, copper hits record high
Macro events: Germany ZEW Survey, US April CPI, US Treasury to auction 10-year Notes

Macro headlines

Kevin Warsh’s Fed Board nomination cleared an initial Senate hurdle in a 49–44 vote, with a final confirmation vote to succeed Jerome Powell as chair expected later this week.
Trump warned the US–Iran ceasefire was on “massive life support” after rejecting Tehran’s proposal, raising fears Hormuz will stay effectively closed, as Iran seeks an end to the US naval blockade and some sanctions relief. Trump is weighing renewed military action and vessel escorts, while Saudi Aramco’s CEO says weekly losses of about 100 million barrels could delay market normalization into next year.
UK Prime Minister is under significant Labour party pressure to resign and will hold a cabinet meeting Tuesday morning that is seen as possibly pivotal for his government’s future.
Japan’s household spending fell 2.9% y/y in March 2026, a fourth consecutive drop and worse than the expected 1.3% decline, with broad weakness across food, utilities, clothing, and transport. Spending on housing, household goods, healthcare, and education rose, but overall outlays fell 1.3% m/m, reversing February’s 1.5% gain.
US existing home sales ticked up 0.2% to a 4.02 million annual rate in April 2026, below the 4.05 million forecast, as higher mortgage rates weighed. Sales fell in the West but rose in the Midwest, while inventory increased 5.8% to 1.47 million (4.4 months’ supply). The NAR cited improved affordability as incomes outpaced home price gains.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

· 0600 – Germany April Final CPI
· 0900 – Germany May ZEW Survey
· 1215 – US Weekly ADP Employment Change (four weeks ending Apr 25)
· 1230 – US April CPI
· 1600 – EIA's Short-term Energy Outlook (STEO)
· 1700 – US to Sell USD 42 Billion 10-year Notes
· 0130 – Australia Q1 Wage Price Index

Earnings this week

Monday (yesterday): Petrobras, Constellation Energy, AST SpaceMobile
Tuesday (today): Siemens Energy, KBC Group, Bayer, Constellation Software
Wednesday: Cisco Systems, Siemens, Softbank Group, Deutsche Telekom, Merck, E.ON, RWE, Nebius Group
Thursday: Applied Materials, Ross Stores, Nu Holdings

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.2%, the Nasdaq Composite added 0.1% and the Dow gained 0.2%, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at fresh records. Chipmakers led as AI optimism again beat geopolitical nerves, despite higher oil prices after Trump rejected Iran’s response to his peace proposal. Nvidia rose 2% on continued AI demand, Qualcomm jumped 8.4% on chip momentum, Micron gained 6.5% on tighter memory supply expectations, and Tesla added 3.9% as appetite for megacap growth stayed firm. Markets now watch oil, inflation data and the Trump-Xi meeting.
Europe: The Euro STOXX 50 fell 0.3% to 5,895.45, while the STOXX 600 was slightly up to around 613, as Middle East risks and disrupted energy exports kept investors cautious. Luxury led the weakness, with LVMH down 4.4%, Hermès off 3.3% and L’Oréal down about 2.6% as investors worried about weaker discretionary demand and pressure from higher energy costs. Industrial names offered some balance, with Schneider Electric up 2.3% and Siemens gaining 1.4% ahead of earnings. Europe’s main test remains simple: can earnings hold if oil keeps behaving like an unpaid intern with access to the red button?
Asia: Asian stocks rose, led by South Korea, where the Kospi jumped 4.3% to a record 7,822.24 as AI memory demand continued to drive a powerful chip rally. SK Hynix surged 11.5% and Samsung Electronics gained 6.3% on tighter memory supply expectations and strong demand for high-bandwidth memory used in AI servers. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng was little changed at 26,406.84, helped by HSBC up 1.8%, while China’s Shanghai Composite gained 1.1% to 4,225.02, its highest since 2015. The region’s next focus is whether the AI rally broadens or stays concentrated in chips.

Volatility

Volatility remains contained, but markets are no longer fully relaxed. The VIX closed at 18.38 on 11 May, while shorter-dated volatility signals stayed elevated, with VIX9D rising 18.9% as investors positioned for a potentially more volatile week ahead. The main drivers remain rising oil prices near USD 105, fragile US-Iran negotiations, today’s US CPI release, and a US 10-year Treasury auction that could influence yields and equity valuations.
Based on SPX options pricing, the expected move into the 15 May expiry is around 86.8 points, or 1.17%, from an SPX level near 7,412.84.
For today’s expiry, the implied move is about 36.9 points, or 0.50%. Today’s 0DTE positioning also shows a defensive tone beneath the surface: near-the-money puts continue to trade at higher implied volatility than equivalent calls around the 7,410–7,415 strikes, suggesting investors are still paying a premium for short-term downside protection despite equities remaining near record highs.

Digital Assets

Crypto markets are stable but cautious ahead of today’s US inflation data and ongoing Middle East tensions. Bitcoin is trading near USD 81,200 after briefly moving above USD 82,000 over the weekend, while Ethereum is softer near USD 2,310. XRP and Solana are slightly lower on the day, reflecting a broader wait-and-see tone across risk assets rather than outright risk aversion.
IBIT remains the key institutional sentiment gauge. BlackRock reported approximately USD 67.3bn in IBIT net assets as of 11 May, although Farside data showed a modest USD 7.4mn outflow from the ETF on the same day, even as US spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively attracted USD 27.2mn in net inflows. ETHA was steadier, trading around USD 17.67, while Ethereum ETFs overall saw USD 17.0mn of net outflows, partially offset by a USD 2.1mn inflow into ETHA.
Meanwhile, crypto-linked equities including COIN, MSTR, MARA, RIOT and CRCL outperformed underlying cryptocurrencies, suggesting investors continue to favour listed crypto exposure when market sentiment improves.

Fixed Income

US Treasuries continued to weaken, sending yields to their highest levels in a week ahead of today’s US April CPI release, seen as a possible catalyst for the forward view of Fed policy. The benchmark US 2-year treasury yield rose almost seven basis points to 3.95% Monday and nudged above 3.96% in early trading Tuesday, while the benchmark 10-year treasury yield rose about six basis points in total since Friday’s close to trade above 4.42%. The highest daily close for the 2-year benchmark since the Iran war reset inflation expectations higher is above 3.98% as 4% is an obvious focus. For the 10-year yield, the highest daily close is just below 4.44%.
Japan’s government bond yields remain under pressure, steepening the yield curve and sending the 10-year JGB yield to a new cycle high. The benchmark 2-year JGB yield rose less than a basis point Tuesday, but looks to close the day just south of 1.40%, the highest level since mid-April, where the intraday high-water mark is 1.417%. The benchmark 10-year JGB yield, meanwhile, rose another 2.5 basis points and as high as 2.55% Tuesday, the highest level since the 1990’s as traders fret inflationary risks and a subdued BoJ policy response function to those risks.

Commodities

Oil prices climbed for a second day as the global oil market continued to tighten amid limited prospects for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The move followed Trump casting doubt over a ceasefire with Israel signalling the war is not over. Attention this week will also turn to the monthly market outlooks from the three major oil forecasting agencies, starting today with the EIA, followed by OPEC and the IEA on Wednesday.
Silver jumped to a two-month high on Monday, rising more than 7% as technical signals triggered fresh buying from hedge funds and other momentum focused investors. With gold struggling to keep pace following Modi’s call for a pause in gold buying, the gold-silver ratio slumped to 55, the lowest since 1 March. Overall, gold remains rangebound, with support established ahead of USD 4,500, while resistance at the 50-day moving average, currently near USD 4,757, was challenged and rejected during the Asian session.
Copper in NY and London recorded their highest ever closing prices on Monday, with HG copper trading just below the January all-time high at USD 6.583 per pound, as the key transition metal continued to enjoy strong demand, especially from China where visible stocks have declined sharply in recent weeks. Combined with an increasingly challenging supply outlook, partly linked to the Strait of Hormuz disruption, traders have largely shrugged off the potential economic demand impact from the war.

Currencies

The US dollar traded firmer early Tuesday as higher global bond yields and the latest rally in crude oil prices was sustained. EURUSD drifted back to 1.1755 from above 1.1780 and the more rate-sensitive USDJPY rose above 157.70, closing in on the 158.00 area, which is the highest level seen since the dramatic official Japanese intervention began on April 30.
Sterling saw a choppy session Monday and ended Monday slightly weaker as traders eye the potential end of Starmer’s government, wondering what comes next. EURGBP rose to a new high for the month above 0.8660 early Tuesday.

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London Quick Take - Tuesday - Gilt yields hit highest since 2008 as pound selloff gathers pace and FTSE dips

Tue, 12 May 2026 06:11:00 Z

Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.

Today's the day: Sterling is under pressure and gilt yields leapt sharply as Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces mounting pressure to resign. Almost 80 Labour MPs have called on the PM to step down. It now appears inevitable that the PM will step down either now, or set a timetable to do so in the coming months. This is a dynamic situation but it looks like this morning's cabinet meeting could be the end and we are expecting volatility in gilts and sterling to continue.

Having risen about 10bps yesterday this morning the 10yr gilt yield jumped a further 12bps to clear 5.10% at the open as investors ditched UK bonds. The 30yr yield also rose 13bps to hit a fresh 28-year high above 5.8%. I can't believe this won't be broken. We could see a blowout in longer-dated gilts if this turns into a dogfight– political, fiscal and inflationary risks will rise. Markets tend to dislike a lack of certainty over who runs a government; the fiscal position is already fragile and likely to become worse should a left-leaning ticket prioritise spending; and that this makes inflation stickier.

Sterling was also offered as GBPUSD started to crack at the 20-day SMA at 1.3540 in early trading to test 1.350. A move back to 1.34 seems very possible in the near-term and longer-term we could easily retest 1.30. Yesterday, gilt yields continued to tick up as the afternoon wore on as the number of MPs calling on Prime Minister Keir Starmer to quit climbed above the 50 mark. Stalking horse Catherine West blinked and said she won’t trigger a leadership contest immediately, but a couple of cabinet ministers cracked, and the momentum seems to be with the rebellion. UK 10yr gilt yields rose about 10bps to clear the 5% mark again yesterday, near the highest since 2008, while the 30yr yield ticked up 11bps to touch 5.7%, near last week’s 28-year high. If a leadership challenge is lodged, then we’d expect further selling in sterling in gilts and a period of volatility in UK assets.

The working assumption is a new leadership ticket moves the party to the left. Right on cue, Louise Haigh, leader of the influential Tribune group of Labour MPs, is today calling for a reset of the fiscal framework to set longer-term borrowing horizons. Whilst there are some admirable attempts within this proposal to refocus our growth ambitions I would think that recalibrating fiscal rules is not the sort of thing the market likes to hear.

A leftwards lurch would raise hackles among bond vigilantes at a time when the fiscal position is already fragile, and risks are rising due to rising inflation from soaring energy prices and weaker growth outlook for the economy. In the event of a new leadership ticket there is a risk of additional government spending on cost-of-living measures such support for rising energy bills, increased minimum wage, benefit uprating and a rental freeze, among a range of potential help mechanisms. It would be a toxic combination for gilts – higher spending, lower growth and inflation becoming embedded.

The bond market may eventually enforce fiscal discipline on any new leadership, however this would not come without first a lurch higher in yields and potential dislocations. Ultimately the outlook for inflation and gilt yields will be dependent on the outcome of the situation in the Middle East and the persistence of the energy shock, as well as the reaction function of the Bank of England to higher prices, as well as the fiscal and political outlook.

Elsewhere, Brent crude prices are higher again after President Trump said the Iran ceasefire is on “life support”. Brent rose about 2% to above $106. It didn’t matter much for Wall Street as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both edged out fresh record highs. By contrast European indices are down close to 1% as fears of re-escalation resurface, deepening inflationary worries.

Chipmakers continued their advance with Intel extending its post-earnings rally on reports it’s near a packaging deal with memory giant SK Hynix. The AI boom is driving demand for CPUs due to astronomical expected compute needs of AI agents. Intel is up 100% since its 23 April earnings, +220% YTD, +470% in the last 12 months.

Precious metals kicked back into life somewhat as technical momentum kicked in for silver as it breached $82.70, which dragged gold along for the ride. This came after India’s Prime Minister asked consumers to pause gold purchases for at least a year to ease pressure on foreign-exchange reserves and the currency.

Post-pandemic: Moderna shares rallied further as an American citizen tested positive for hantavirus - last week the company announced it’s in the early-stage development of a vaccine for the disease. MRNA has jumped 20% in the last five sessions.

Rigetti Computing – shares in the quantum computing name were all over the place in after-hours trading but settled flat after revenues beat expectations – super frothy and volatile. IonQalso fell after earnings despite hiking guidance last week. Quantum computing stocks had a very strong day on Monday, with Quantum Computing (QUBT) jumping +16% on soaring revenues.

AST SpaceMobile dropped after Q1 misses on earnings and revenues.

Bitcoin names CleanSpark and MARA were down after missing estimates, while stablecoin giant Circle ripped higher after reporting the earnings from its ARC token sale.

UK earnings are out aplenty this morning....

Vodafone shares –3% as total revenues rose +8% to €40.5bn while organic services revenues growth was +5.4%.

Greggs shares rose +3% on improved trading momentum as sales rose +7.5%. LFL sales were +2.5% but the uptick to 3.3% in the most recent 10 weeks was taken as a sign of recent improvement.

On The Beach –15% as its reinstated guidance fell short of market expectations. Not a big surprise that things are tough but the £18mn-£25mn target was short of the £36mn expected.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

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