Saxo News & Research - Articles and Videoshttp://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-researchSaxo News & Research Articles and Videosen-GBSaxo Group ©Michael McKennaSaxo Grouphttp://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research60{827B3B41-2872-4C2F-85BF-B2CDE76DFF0D}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/macro/global-market-quick-take-asia--march-28-2024-28032024Redmond Wongproduct-macroproduct-commoditiesproduct-forexproduct-macroMacro-FXmacro-central banksmacro-gdpmacro-indicesplace-lr/aspAPAC Market DigestFeatured Market Update APACAPACplace-lc/gbplace-lc/usplace-lc/auplace-lc/cncommodity-crude oilOilsector-Oil and Gasplace-lr/eurcurrency-usdforex-eurusdforex-usdjpyforex-audusdcurrency-gbpforex-gbpusdcommodity-goldFederal Reserveproduct-bondssubject-is/fin.stpbondproduct-equitiesforex-cadjpyforex-gbpjpyforex-chfjpyforex-audjpycurrency-jpyforex-eurjpyECBplace-lc/jpInflationcurrency-sekforex-eursekforex-noksekEURSEKforex-gbpcadforex-gbpchfforex-gbpaudforex-eurgbpEURGBPGBPUSDGBPJPYplace-lc/saforex-audnzdcurrency-audAUDUSDAUDJPYcurrency-nokforex-eurnokforex-usdnokEURNOKforex-xauusdXAUUSDXAGUSDXAGUSDDow Jones IndexGlobal Market Quick Take: Asia – March 28, 2024<div class="article-excerpt">USDJPY surged to 151.97, its highest in 34 years, then retreated slightly to around 151.30. Japan's Finance Minister issued a cautionary statement, signalling readiness for "decisive steps" against currency fluctuations. A joint emergency meeting of Japan's Ministry of Finance, Bank of Japan, and Financial Services Agency discussed yen weakening. Vice Finance Minister hinted at potential foreign exchange intervention.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong><span></span></strong><em >The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.&nbsp;</em></p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/28_qt.jpg"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong><span>Equities</span></strong><span>: Risk sentiments abounded in the US equities market. Trump Media &amp; Technology added 14.2% after surging 16% the day before. The S&amp;P 500 gained 0.9% to 5,248 while the Nasdaq 100 climbed 0.4% to 18,281. Merck surged 5% following the approval of a potential blockbuster drug. Nvidia dropped by 2.5%, pulling back for the second day in a row. The US equity market will be closed for the Good Friday holiday on March 29. For long-term investors, read this <a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.home.saxo/en-hk/content/articles/equities/what-are-the-most-attractive-sectors-for-the-long-term-investor-27032024__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!uGYHcidl90BHdrYdREBu-et3BowM43qxc9GY7YZRnFLiH8lUI2qowBE26l4WQ6EdkrVFR27rMj7gB3Tszj77Ng$">Saxo article</a> highlighting some attractive sectors for the longer term.</span></p> <p><span>In Japan, the Nikkei 225 rallied amid a weaker Yen, rising 0.9% to 40,763, having its record highs in sight. </span></p> <p><span>In Hong Kong, market sentiment soured as Alibaba's share price dropped 2.1% following the cancellation of its logistics subsidiary, Cainiao, coupled with persistent anxiety about a weaker renminbi dragged down by the Japanese Yen which hit a 34-year low on Wednesday. Also weighing on the market, EV stocks plunged 3%-6%, driven by a downbeat 3.6 million volume guidance from BYD, falling short of the 3.7 million expected by analysts. Factoring in the fast growth in exports, the growth in the domestic EV market looks decelerating and dampens the share prices of other EV stocks. The Hang Seng Index dropped by 1.4% and the mainland&rsquo;s CSI300 finished 1.2% lower. The Hong Kong market has a busy earnings calendar today ahead of the long weekend starting on Friday.</span></p> <p><strong><span>FX:&nbsp;</span></strong><span> On Wednesday, USDJPY surged to 151.97, reaching its highest level in 34 years, before slightly pulling back to around 151.30. Japan's Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, issued a cautionary statement, indicating the Ministry of Finance's readiness to take "decisive steps" in reaction to currency fluctuations. Later in the day, the Ministry of Finance, the Bank of Japan, and the Financial Services Agency held an emergency meeting to discuss about the weakening of the yen. In the briefing from the meeting, Vice Finance Minister Masato Kanda said he &ldquo;won&rsquo;t rule out any steps to respond to disorderly FX moves&rdquo;, hinting at the potential for foreign exchange intervention. He went on to say that the BOJ could respond with monetary policies as well if the yen&rsquo;s fluctuations affect the economy and inflation. </span></p> <p><strong><span>Commodities:&nbsp;</span></strong><span>Oil pulled back slightly as prices bounced from intraday lows after a smaller-than-expected weekly increase in commercial crude inventory according to data released by the Energy Information Administration. Precious metals rallied modestly with gold and silver trading at around 2190 and silver to 24.60 in Asian morning on Thursday.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Fixed income: </span></strong><span>In the absence of economic data and ahead of the PCE data scheduled to be released on Friday when the market is closed to observe the Good Friday holiday, Treasuries rebounded moderately, with yields falling 2bps to 5bps across the yield curve. Investor demand was strong for the $43 billion 7-year notes auction. At the close, the 10-year yield was 4bps lower at 4.19%. Today the Treasury market will close early.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Macro:</span></strong></p> <ul> <li><span>The S&amp;P affirmed the long-term and short-term sovereign credit ratings of the United States at AA+ and A1+ respectively and maintains its assessment of the credit rating outlook of the US as &lsquo;stable&rsquo;.</span></li> <li><span>In the first two months of the year, China's industrial profits amounted to 9140.6 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from a 2.3% decline the previous year to a positive growth of 10.2%. Looking at sectoral performance, profits in mining declined by 21.1% year-on-year, while those in manufacturing grew by 17.4% and utilities increased by 63.1%. Among the 41 major industries, 29 experienced year-on-year profit growth. Notably, computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing saw profits double.</span> <p><span>&nbsp;</span></p> <p><strong><span>Macro events:</span></strong><span>&nbsp;On <strong>Thursday</strong>: US Initial &amp; Continuous Jobless Claims (weekly), US Chicago PMI (Mar), US Pending Home Sales</span><span> </span><span>U of Michigan Consumer Survey (March, Final), US GDP (Q4 3rd revision); On <strong>Friday</strong>: US PCE and core PCE inflation (Feb), US Persona Income and Consumption (Feb )</span></p> <p><strong><span>Earnings:</span></strong><span>&nbsp;Bank of China , China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, Postal Savings Bank of China, China International Capital Corporation, China Galaxy Securities, Haitong Securities, China Pacific Insurance, China Overseas Land &amp; Investment, China Vanke, Chinasoft, Great Wall Motor, Dongfeng Motor,</span><span> </span><span>Guangzhou Auto, </span><span>Brilliance China, Changjiang Electric, Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium.</span></p> <p><strong><span>In the news:</span></strong></p> </li> <li><span>Fed's Waller still sees 'no rush' to cut rates amid sticky inflation data (<a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-waller-still-sees-no-rush-cut-rates-amid-sticky-inflation-data-2024-03-27/__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!uGYHcidl90BHdrYdREBu-et3BowM43qxc9GY7YZRnFLiH8lUI2qowBE26l4WQ6EdkrVFR27rMj7gB3RzYDAAlw$">Reuters</a>)</span></li> <li><span>BOJ board divided over economic strength upon negative rate exit (<a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Bank-of-Japan/BOJ-board-divided-over-economic-strength-upon-negative-rate-exit__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!tlcLKMrRZjzv_7tEPSqwNvsOHUDhOjZ8z2-OcsF9hN57Nan2Y7MKHGs8E7ngPDI1wg8DV_JVgmn1kz-QQixaGg$">Nikkei Asia</a>)</span></li> <li><span>US Is Asking Allies to Tighten Servicing of Chip Gear in China (<a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-27/us-is-asking-allies-to-tighten-servicing-of-chip-gear-in-china?utm_source=website&amp;utm_medium=share&amp;utm_campaign=copy__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!uGYHcidl90BHdrYdREBu-et3BowM43qxc9GY7YZRnFLiH8lUI2qowBE26l4WQ6EdkrVFR27rMj7gB3RlhjbMfQ$">Bloomberg</a>)</span></li> <li><span>Xi Jinping to China&rsquo;s central bank: restart treasury-bond trade, after 2-decade hiatus (<a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/sc.mp/ft4vl?utm_source=copy-link&amp;utm_campaign=3256967&amp;utm_medium=share_widget__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!uGYHcidl90BHdrYdREBu-et3BowM43qxc9GY7YZRnFLiH8lUI2qowBE26l4WQ6EdkrVFR27rMj7gB3RMYJbZQQ$">SCMP</a>)</span></li> <li><span>Oil Heads for Quarterly Advance as OPEC+ Holds the Line on Cuts (<a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-27/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-may-28?utm_source=website&amp;utm_medium=share&amp;utm_campaign=copy__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!uGYHcidl90BHdrYdREBu-et3BowM43qxc9GY7YZRnFLiH8lUI2qowBE26l4WQ6EdkrVFR27rMj7gB3RYMs2SWw$">Bloomberg</a>)</span></li> </ul> <p><span>&nbsp;</span></p> <p><span>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo&rsquo;s </span><span><a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/calendar__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!s9h6Lxrg5HnW-eaWk8tithFc-W0n--QMbcd4gCbGcsfsr8F4qW3WsLXo8BbCgDcDp3oD1lF8AZcy_oIvBlBzWQ$"><span>calendar.</span></a></span></p> <p><span>For a global look at markets &ndash; go to </span><span><a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration?activetab=latest__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!s9h6Lxrg5HnW-eaWk8tithFc-W0n--QMbcd4gCbGcsfsr8F4qW3WsLXo8BbCgDcDp3oD1lF8AZcy_oJJtW5lSw$"><span>Inspiration</span></a></span></p> <strong><span><br clear="all" /> </span></strong> <p>&nbsp;</p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/authors/redmond-wong"><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/redmond-wong-400x400.png?mw=48" alt="Redmond Wong" /><div>Redmond Wong</div><div>Chief China Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Macro FX</span> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>United States</span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span></div>Thu, 28 Mar 2024 00:30:00 Z2024-03-28T01:53:52Z{EEB8735F-C222-4FB8-91A1-2F6B2B460DCB}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/technical-analysis-nvidia-exhaustion-signal-apple-and-tesla-continued-downtrends-27032024Kim Cramer Larssonproduct-equitiesTechnical analysisFocus ArticleNvidia CorpNVIDIA Corporationcompany-tesla motorsTeslaTesla Inccompany-appleApple IncUS500indexcfd-nas100.iTechnical Update - Nvidia another exhaustion signal. Apple and Tesla continued downtrend signals<div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><span><strong></strong></span> <ul> <li><strong><span>Nvidia: Another Bearish Engulfing top and reversal candle has been formed adding to the one already in play. Technical indicators are suggesting trend exhaustion and Nvidia could also be in the process of forming a double top pattern. A close below 822.79 will confirm that. </span></strong> <p><strong><span>&nbsp;</span></strong></p> </li> <li><strong><span>Apple: Failing to close above 179.25 resuming downtrend. Double top pattern will be confirmed by a close below key support at 165.67 with downside potential to USD 155-145</span></strong> <p><strong><span>&nbsp;</span></strong></p> </li> <li><strong><span>Tesla: Rejected at key gap area yesterday. Selling pressure likely to return. Key support at around USD 152. If broken no support until around 110 </span></strong></li> </ul> <p><strong >NVIDIA</strong><span > formed yesterday another bearish engulfing top and reversal candle.&nbsp;</span><span >The first one formed two weeks ago is still intact and having another one formed within a few weeks is a strong sign of uptrend exhaustion.</span></p> <span>Adding to that, both the declining traded volume and the strength indicator RSI are showing divergence, i.e., strongly indicating uptrend exhaustion. <br /> <br /> NVIDIA is also forming what could appear to be a double-top-like pattern. However, confirmation is needed for the trend is in fact reversing.<br /> If NVIDIA is closing below USD 822.79, i.e., closing the gap, the stock could be hit by heavy selling that could take the share price down to support at around USD 742. Minor support at USD 771.62. <br /> <br /> For NVIDIA to demolish this top and reversal picture, a close above USD 974 is needed. If that scenario plays out, a bullish move to USD 1,055&ndash;1,075 is in the cards</span></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/nvda-d-2703.png"/></div><div class="rte--output">Source all charts and data: Saxo Group</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong>Apple </strong>failed to close above resistance at around USD 179.25 and got hit by another round of selling. <br /> <br /> The bearish trend is resumed and Apple could test the support at around USD 166.89&ndash;165.67 shortly. That area is key for the medium-term picture. <br /> A close below could fuel a sell-off down to the consolidation area USD 155&ndash;145. RSI is in negative sentiment with no divergence supporting the bearish outcome.</p> <p>In the bigger picture, Apple has formed a double-top-like pattern (more visible on the weekly chart) that will be confirmed by a close below USD 165.67.</p> <p>Usually, when a double top pattern has been confirmed by breaking below the valley, the price comes back down to around the base/consolidation area. The base area is the sideways trading behaviour prior to the bullish move higher to the first top. <br /> <br /> The lower part of that base area is also very close to the 1.618 projection of the double top (measured from the peak to the valley i.e., from USD 199.62 to USD 165.67).<br /> The 1.618 projection is the usual distance prices are moving to after double top confirmation. <br /> <br /> Both daily and weekly RSI are in negative sentiment supporting the bearish trend. For Apple to demolish and reverse this bearish scenario, a close above USD 179.15 is needed. If that scenario plays out Apple could establish an uptrend to around 185-190</p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/aapl-d-2703.png"/></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/aapl-w-2703.png"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong>Tesla </strong>yesterday tested the latest gap area only to get rejected. A close of the gap, i.e., a close above USD 188.14, is needed for Tesla to gain any further upside momentum. <br /> The push to test the gap has come after RSI has been showing divergence since 14th March, indicating exhaustion of the downtrend. <br /> <br /> The strength indicator, RSI is currently testing its upper falling trendline, and a close above would strongly suggest Tesla will have a go at the USD 188.14 resistance, possibly breaking it.</p> <p>If buyers can lift Tesla to close above USD 188.14, the resistance that needs to be taken out next is the gap up to USD 207.83 back from 25th January. <br /> <br /> However, with the rejection yesterday Tesla could be hit by another round of selling with downside potential to around USD 152 short-term. The selling pressure could very well intensify if Tesla drops back below USD 170.<br /> <br /> As can been from the weekly chart Tesla is in a medium-term down trend (<strong>L</strong>ower <strong>L</strong>ows and <strong>L</strong>ower <strong>H</strong>ighs) and if closing below USD 152 there is no strong support until around 110<br /> To reverse the medium-term bearish trend a close above last <strong>L</strong>ower <strong>H</strong>igh i.e., above 205.60 is necessary</p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/tsla-d-2703.png"/></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/tsla-w-2703.png"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output">Disclaimer: Author is holding a short position in Tesla</div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/authors/kim-cramer-larsson"><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/kim-cramer-larsson-400x400.png?mw=48" alt="Kim Cramer Larsson" /><div>Kim Cramer Larsson</div><div>Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Technical analysis</span> <span>Focus Article</span> <span>NVidia Corp.</span> <span>NVIDIA Corporation</span> <span>Tesla Motors</span> <span>Tesla</span> <span>Tesla Inc.</span> <span>Apple</span> <span>Apple Inc.</span> <span>US500</span> <span>USNAS100.I</span></div>Wed, 27 Mar 2024 11:20:19 Z2024-03-27T13:03:44Z{BCEAE7EE-F6A0-4310-BC68-EB26B54BCF56}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/crude-oil-maintains-support-amidst-array-of-bullish-signals-27032024Ole Hansenproduct-commoditiesInflationFederal Reservecommodity-crude oilcommodity-gas oilcommodity-heating oilOilsector-Oil and Gasplace-lc/cnCrude oil maintains support amidst array of bullish signals<div class="article-excerpt">Crude oil holds above key support, in WTI around USD 80 and USD 85 in Brent, with underlying fundamental support up against short-term risk of fund long liquidation</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><span></span> <div> <p><strong>Key points</strong></p> <ul> <li>Crude oil holds above key support, in WTI around USD 80 and USD 85 in Brent</li> <li>Ahead of EIAs weekly report, the API reported a bumper 9.3 million barrel crude stock build</li> <li>Underlying fundamental support up against short-term risk of fund long liquidation</li> </ul> <hr /> <p><span><span data-contrast="auto">Crude oil continues to be supported by geopolitical uncertainty amid Ukraine drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, extended OPEC+ production cuts including Russia's recent pledge to make extra cuts and signs of gasoline consumption strength. However, following the mid-March break higher the market has turned its attention to consolidation, leaving the market short-term exposed to long liquidation from technical-driven funds that bought the break above USD 80 in WTI and USD 85 in Brent.</span><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':276}"></span></span></p> </div> <p paraid="889907689" paraeid="{a0b0feea-5c34-44a4-9f98-dff5a581782d}{97}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':276}"></span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/27olh_oil1.png"/></div><div class="rte--output">Source: Saxo </div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><div> <div> <p paraid="846680481" paraeid="{2ac671a4-243a-4625-8342-535c933b6882}{141}"><span data-contrast="auto">Current headwinds apart from dollar strength and the current overhang of recently established long positions were last night's crude and fuel stock report from the American Petroleum Institute which showed a bumper 9.3 million barrel increase in crude stocks being only partly offset by lower gasoline stocks (see inserted table below).</span><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':276}"></span></p> <p paraid="768676240" paraeid="{2ac671a4-243a-4625-8342-535c933b6882}{147}"><span data-contrast="auto">While a build in crude and a drop in gasoline stocks are in line with the seasonal behaviour, the strength of the changes may still impact prices. I will post the results of the EIA report on X at </span><a href="https://twitter.com/Ole_S_Hansen" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span data-contrast="none">@ole_s_hansen</span></a><span data-contrast="auto"> once published at 13:30 GMT.</span><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':276}"></span></p> <p paraid="2054133513" paraeid="{b5be354f-4193-44c0-a961-6b7548a8c1b5}{160}"><span data-contrast="auto"> </span><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':276}"></span></p> </div> </div></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/27olh_oil2.png"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><div> <p paraid="1005059197" paraeid="{2ac671a4-243a-4625-8342-535c933b6882}{167}"><span data-contrast="auto">Money managers, like hedge funds and CTAs tend to anticipate, accelerate, and amplify price changes that have been set in motion by fundamentals. Since hitting an 11-year low last December at 170 million barrels, they have steadily been increasing their exposure in the WTI and Brent crude oil futures contracts, culminating in the week to March 19 when the net buying exceeded 100 million barrels (105k contracts), lifting the net long to a five-month high at 509 million barrels.<br /> </span><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':276}"></span></p> </div> <div> <p paraid="687551953" paraeid="{2ac671a4-243a-4625-8342-535c933b6882}{173}"><span data-contrast="auto">Being followers of trends and momentum these traders will buy into strength &ndash; and sell into weakness - and during the mentioned reporting week both WTI and Brent broke higher, thereby triggering the relatively aggressive buying response. Despite the multiple tailwinds mentioned above currently supporting the market, this behaviour highlights a market that could still run into technical selling should prices revert back below USD 80 in WTI and USD 85 in Brent.</span><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':276}"></span></p> </div></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/27olh_oil3.png"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><hr /> <p><strong><span>Commodity articles:</span></strong></p> <p><span>26 Mch 2024: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/golds-behavior-points-to-sustained-strong-demand-26032024">Gold's behaviour points to sustained demand</a><br /> 20 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/attacks-on-russian-refineries-lift-risk-premium-and-crude-prices-20032024"><strong><span>Attacks on Russian refineries lift risk premium and crude prices</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 19 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/how-to-add-copper-exposure-to-your-portfolio-19032024"><strong><span>How to add copper exposure to your portfolio</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 15 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/commodity-weekly---15-march-2024-15032024"><strong><span>Commodity weekly: Green shoots seen across key sectors</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 13 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/lack-of-catalyst-pushes-crude-into-tightening-range-13032024"><strong><span>Lack of catalyst pushes crude into tightening range</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 8 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/commodity-weekly---8-march-2024-08032024"><strong><span>Commodity weekly: Gold and silver steal the limelight</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 8 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---gold-optionality-08032024"><strong><span>Investing with options - Gold optionality</span></strong></a><span><br /> 6 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/how-to-add-gold-exposure-to-your-portfolio-06032024"><strong><span>How to add gold exposure to your portfolio</span></strong></a><span><br /> 6 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ShVBip5DmL0" target="_blank"><strong><span>Video: What happened to the gold prices?</span></strong></a><span><br /> 1 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/commodity-weekly---1-march-2024-01032024"><strong><span>Grains dip, cocoa soars, gold and oil see rays of strength: February&rsquo;s commodity mix</span></strong></a><span><br /> 29 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/podcast/podcast-29-feb-2024---commodities---why-speculative-interest-is-important-for-everyone-29022024"><strong><span>Podcast: Why speculative interest is important to understand</span></strong></a><span><br /> 28 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/oil-price-stuck-in-neutral-despite-underlying-strength-28022024"><strong><span>Oil price stuck in neutral despite underlying strength</span></strong></a><span><br /> 27 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/resilient-gold-market-defies-lower-rate-cut-predictions-27022024"><strong><span>Resilient gold market defies lower rate cut predictions</span></strong></a><span><br /> 22 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/copper-short-squeeze-fades-ahead-of-key-resistance-22022024"><strong><span>Copper short squeeze fades ahead of key resistance</span></strong></a><span><br /> 21 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/golds-resilience-despite-recent-etf-and-futures-selling-21022024"><strong><span>Gold's resilience despite recent futures and ETF selling</span></strong></a><span><br /> 20 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/wti-crude-eyes-key-resistance-20022024"><strong><span>WTI crude eyes resistance amid improved signals</span></strong></a><span><br /> 16 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/commodity-weekly---16-feb-2024-16022024"><strong><span>Commodity weekly: Grains tumble; Industrial metals eye China boost</span></strong></a><span><br /> 15 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/us-rate-cut-delay-drives-gold-below-2000-15022024"><strong><span>US rate cut delay drives gold below $2000</span></strong></a><span><br /> 13 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/cocoa-13022024"><strong><span>Video: What is driving Cocoa's sweet price</span></strong></a><span><br /> 9 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/commodity-weekly---9-feb-2024-09022024"><strong><span>Commodity weekly: Refined product strength lifts crude</span></strong></a><span><br /> 9 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/podcast/podcast-9-feb-2024---the-year-of-metals-09022024"><strong><span>Podcast: Year of the metals</span></strong></a><span><br /> 7 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/crude-oil-supported-by-tightening-fuel-outlook-07022024"><strong><span>Crude oil supported by tightening fuel outlook</span></strong></a><span><br /> 6 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/us-rate-cut-delay-drives-gold-below-2000-06022024"><strong><span>Gold and silver turn defensive on reduced Fed rate-cut optimism</span></strong></a><span><br /> 2 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/commodity-weekly---2-feb-2024-02022024"><strong><span>Commodity weekly: Tight supply adds fuel to uranium and cocoa rally</span></strong></a><span><br /> 1 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/commodities-january-performance-and-etf-flows-01022024"><strong><span>Commodities: January performance and ETF flows</span></strong></a><span><br /> <strong><br /> <strong><span>Previous "Commitment of Traders" articles</span></strong></strong></span></p> <p><strong><span>25 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span></strong><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---25-march-2024-25032024"><strong><span>COT: Hedge funds zoom in on crude, copper and silver</span></strong></a><strong><span><br /> <strong><span>18 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span></strong></span></strong><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---18-march-2024-18032024"><strong><span>COT: Hedge funds buying expands from precious metals to copper and grains</span></strong></a><strong><span><br /> <strong><span>11 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span></strong></span></strong><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---11-march-2024-11032024"><strong><span>COT: Specs rush back into gold, elevated yen short in focus</span></strong></a><strong><span><br /> <strong><span>4 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span></strong></span></strong><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---4-march-2024-04032024"><strong><span>COT: Underinvested speculators fuel gold's latest surge</span></strong></a><strong><span><br /> <strong><span>26 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span></strong></span></strong><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---26-feb-2024-26022024"><strong><span>COT:&nbsp;Record corn short, cocoa surge no longer supported by speculators</span></strong></a><strong><span><br /> <strong><span>19 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span></strong></span></strong><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---19-feb-2024-19022024"><strong><span>COT: US inflation surprise drives broad selling of metals</span></strong></a><strong><span><br /> <strong><span>5 Feb 2024:</span></strong></span></strong><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---5-feb-2024-05022024"><strong><span>COT: Speculators chase false crude break; grain short extends further</span></strong></a></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen"><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/ole-hansen-400x400.png?mw=48" alt="Ole Hansen" /><div>Ole Hansen</div><div>Head of Commodity Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>Inflation</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Gas Oil</span> <span>Heating Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>China</span></div>Wed, 27 Mar 2024 10:30:00 Z2024-03-27T10:51:54Z{2D0FDD6C-4F15-47D9-9836-6CC939BACC16}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/what-are-the-most-attractive-sectors-for-the-long-term-investor-27032024Peter Garnryproduct-equitiesHighlighted articlesSaxo Strats Core ThemesBuy and holdsector-Health Carecompany-novo nordiskNovo Nordisk B ASsector-Financialsproduct-sectorssector-TechnologyWeekly NewsletterWhat are the most attractive sectors for the long-term investor?<div class="article-excerpt">The most attractive sectors for long-term investors are health care, IT, financials, and energy. In this equity note we explain how investors should think about long-term returns.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Key points:</span></strong></h3> <ul > <li><span>The healthcare sector is expected to have the most attractive long-term returns, driven by high expected real earnings growth.</span><br /> <br /> </li> <li><span>Energy sector, while having a high dividend yield, is expected to have negative real growth due to factors like electrification.</span><br /> <br /> </li> <li><span>Investors can estimate long-term returns by considering factors like dividend yield, buyback yield and real long-term earnings growth.</span></li> </ul> <p><strong><span>&nbsp;</span></strong></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Health care is the most attractive sector</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Sectors like themes are a good way to filter the equity market and why ways to diversify a portfolio or get exposure to the right long-term trends. MSCI, the world&rsquo;s leading index provider, has defined 11 sectors (see table below) that all captures different part of the economy and equity market. Four of them (energy, consumer staples, health care, and utilities) are defined as defensive, meaning that they are less sensitive to changes in the economic cycles (changes in economic growth). So which sectors offer the most attractive long-term returns with the data we have today?</span></p> <p><span>As our table below shows, the four most attractive sectors are health care, IT, financials, and energy. Health care is by far the most attractive driven by the highest expected real earnings growth which is even eclipsing the IT sector. The latest growth momentum in obesity drugs by Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk is definitely helping explaining the power in the health care sector.</span></p> <p><span>It is also worth noting that utilities and real estate are the two worst sectors offering unattractive long-term returns. Their dividend yield might be close to 4% but these two sectors are also the only ones that are issuing capital (negative buyback yield) to shore up their balance sheets. This is not surprising given both sectors heavily use debt to fund their operations and with higher bond yields financial pressure is on the rise.</span></p> <p><span>A final observation is that only five sectors have positive real earnings growth estimates highlighting the &ldquo;grand rotation&rdquo; in the economy from the old and capital intensive sectors to those driven by intangibles.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/27_pg_2.png"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><em><span>EPS (g) is the long-term expected real earnings growth, LT e(r) is the the long-term expected return, MOM is the 12-month price momentum in the sector, and P/E is the 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio.</span></em></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>The long drought in energy</span></strong></h3> <p><span>As our table with long-term returns shows, the energy sector&rsquo;s high capital return yield is dragged down by low expected real growth rates for earnings. To see why take a look at the chart below. It measures revenue per share in USD over the past 10 years. Not exactly a growth venture. In fact, the annualised nominal growth has been -0.2%, but with inflation running at 2.7% annualised over the same period, the real revenue growth has been -2.9% annualised. This reflects a combination of stronger USD, weaker energy prices, and weak volume growth.</span></p> <p><span>Long-term investors should understand that while the energy sector is attractive seen from a high dividend yield and lots of buyback of own shares, the expected real growth rate is expected to be negative. Electrification in the decades to come will likely not make things better. Quite the contrary. So why have energy in the portfolio at all? Because it is a defensive sector, and the sector that provides the most protection should inflation come back to bite.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/27_pg_3.png"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>How to estimate long-term expected returns?</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Many retail investors are brought up to think that P/E ratios are the answer to everything. Whether something is expensive or not. It is not that simple. The way you build up your long-term expectations are by starting with the dividend yield. Next you add the buyback yield (which is the amount of shares the company buys back over the past year). Buybacks are another way (often tax efficient) to return capital to shareholders. The sum of the two is called the capital return yield. This is the long-term expected real return to shareholders under the assumption that a company or sector can grow earnings with inflation (so zero percent real growth). If a company or sector can grow faster than inflation the expected real earnings growth rate is added and you then have the long-term estimated return. We use historical real revenue growth as the future indicator for real earnings growth as this is more stable, but the underlying assumption is that the profit margin will not change much in the future.</span></p> <p><span>The sum of these three factors (dividend yield, buyback yield, and real long-term earnings growth adds up the expected long-term return. As can be seen by the first table, health care has a better expected return compared to financials despite being valued at a significant P/E premium showing exactly the point that P/E ratio is not a good indicator for long-term returns.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Recent notes on equities</strong></h3> <div><strong></strong> <div><strong></strong> <div><strong></strong> <div><strong></strong> <div><strong></strong> <div><strong></strong> <div><strong></strong> <div><strong></strong> <div><strong></strong> <div><strong></strong> <div><strong></strong> <div><strong></strong> <div><strong></strong> <div><strong></strong> <div><strong></strong> <div><strong></strong> <div><strong></strong> <div><strong></strong> <div><strong>Equities&nbsp;</strong><time data-styles="tooltip" data-tooltip="Displayed in your local timezone (UTC+01)" data-tooltip-length="medium" data-tooltip-position="up" data-behavior="time-formatter tooltip" data-template="YYYY-MM-DD HH:mm" datetime="2024-03-19T09:15:00Z" data-instance="time-formatter tooltip__QMRJ9Z">2024-03-19 10:15</time></div> <h4><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/article/592847d2-aa48-4bf2-8559-e31098eac5f6" target="_self">Nvidia&rsquo;s new AI chip, Unilever restructuring, and Nike earnings</a></h4> <strong>Equities&nbsp;</strong><time data-styles="tooltip" data-tooltip="Displayed in your local timezone (UTC+01)" data-tooltip-length="medium" data-tooltip-position="up" data-behavior="time-formatter tooltip" data-template="YYYY-MM-DD HH:mm" datetime="2024-03-15T14:00:00Z" data-instance="time-formatter tooltip__EKJGWJ">2024-03-15 15:00</time></div> <h4><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/article/7dc56cea-a201-432c-89eb-9929880c6d30" target="_self">Signs of green metals comeback</a></h4> <strong>Equities&nbsp;</strong><time data-styles="tooltip" data-tooltip="Displayed in your local timezone (UTC+01)" data-tooltip-length="medium" data-tooltip-position="up" data-behavior="time-formatter tooltip" data-template="YYYY-MM-DD HH:mm" datetime="2024-03-13T11:00:00Z" data-instance="time-formatter tooltip__KAXDWQ">2024-03-13 12:00</time></div> <h4><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/article/e7b9c3b6-2511-4660-8d11-840b1d24af38" target="_self">Tech rally echoes dot-com boom: Time to reduce exposure?</a></h4> <strong>Equities&nbsp;</strong><time data-styles="tooltip" data-tooltip="Displayed in your local timezone (UTC+01)" data-tooltip-length="medium" data-tooltip-position="up" data-behavior="time-formatter tooltip" data-template="YYYY-MM-DD HH:mm" datetime="2024-03-12T13:00:00Z" data-instance="time-formatter tooltip__5JE2BD">2024-03-12 14:00</time></div> <h4><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/article/5a30bbef-fa19-4bd7-8434-7b107fa4d878" target="_self">Why and how to diversify your portfolio</a></h4> <strong>Equities&nbsp;</strong><time data-styles="tooltip" data-tooltip="Displayed in your local timezone (UTC+01)" data-tooltip-length="medium" data-tooltip-position="up" data-behavior="time-formatter tooltip" data-template="YYYY-MM-DD HH:mm" datetime="2024-03-08T14:30:00Z" data-instance="time-formatter tooltip__ZB97YG">2024-03-08 15:30</time></div> <h4><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/article/e0843ed1-95dd-4141-a107-1beb924b65e6" target="_self">Three interesting companies with female CEOs</a></h4> <strong>Equities&nbsp;</strong><time data-styles="tooltip" data-tooltip="Displayed in your local timezone (UTC+01)" data-tooltip-length="medium" data-tooltip-position="up" data-behavior="time-formatter tooltip" data-template="YYYY-MM-DD HH:mm" datetime="2024-03-06T12:30:00Z" data-instance="time-formatter tooltip__5WW2E3">2024-03-06 13:30</time></div> <h4><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/article/bc6d54cd-fa8d-471b-8c8e-eb3f1414390a" target="_self">CrowdStrike jumps on earnings as Magnificent Seven stocks crack</a></h4> <strong>Equities</strong>&nbsp;<time data-styles="tooltip" data-tooltip="Displayed in your local timezone (UTC+01)" data-tooltip-length="medium" data-tooltip-position="up" data-behavior="time-formatter tooltip" data-template="YYYY-MM-DD HH:mm" datetime="2024-02-29T13:40:00Z" data-instance="time-formatter tooltip__MGBPGV">2024-02-29 14:40</time></div> <h4><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/article/d9fefa53-564f-4c42-aa60-be5b3152abd8" target="_self">Here we go again, the bubble fever is back!</a></h4> <strong>Equities&nbsp;</strong><time data-styles="tooltip" data-tooltip="Displayed in your local timezone (UTC+01)" data-tooltip-length="medium" data-tooltip-position="up" data-behavior="time-formatter tooltip" data-template="YYYY-MM-DD HH:mm" datetime="2024-02-26T14:00:00Z" data-instance="time-formatter tooltip__EDXER7">2024-02-26 15:00</time></div> <h4><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/article/1bd39d7b-80a8-4875-b467-fa88588432f1" target="_self">Earnings Watch: Salesforce, Snowflake, and Leonardo</a></h4> <strong>Equities&nbsp;</strong><time data-styles="tooltip" data-tooltip="Displayed in your local timezone (UTC+01)" data-tooltip-length="medium" data-tooltip-position="up" data-behavior="time-formatter tooltip" data-template="YYYY-MM-DD HH:mm" datetime="2024-02-22T13:00:00Z" data-instance="time-formatter tooltip__VJJB3Y">2024-02-22 14:00</time></div> <h4><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/article/64ca6a06-29c9-4a05-b014-6691e23d81e6" target="_self">Nvidia earnings: Generative AI has reached &ldquo;tipping point&rdquo;</a></h4> <strong>Equities&nbsp;</strong><time data-styles="tooltip" data-tooltip="Displayed in your local timezone (UTC+01)" data-tooltip-length="medium" data-tooltip-position="up" data-behavior="time-formatter tooltip" data-template="YYYY-MM-DD HH:mm" datetime="2024-02-19T17:40:00Z" data-instance="time-formatter tooltip__8RJ8YJ">2024-02-19 18:40</time></div> <h4><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/article/ae7e31dc-2d10-43a0-b122-cf654d84290e" target="_self">All eyes on Nvidia earnings as AI boom reaches historic proportions</a></h4> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/authors/peter-garnry"><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/peter-garnry-400x400.png?mw=48" alt="Peter Garnry" /><div>Peter Garnry</div><div>Head of Saxo Strats</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Saxo Strats Core Themes</span> <span>Buy and hold</span> <span>Health Care</span> <span>Novo Nordisk</span> <span>Novo Nordisk B A/S</span> <span>Financials</span> <span>Sectors</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span></div>Wed, 27 Mar 2024 09:30:00 Z2024-03-27T09:51:20Z{0F3D3265-F3FF-4494-970F-D1A99C4DAAAE}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/macro/global-market-quick-take-europe-27-march-2024-27032024Saxo Strategy Teamproduct-macroproduct-equitiesproduct-commoditiesproduct-bondsproduct-forexThought StartersAdvanced ordersplace-lc/cnplace-lr/eurmacro-employmentplace-lc/usplace-lc/gbsubject-is/pol.euforex-xauusdcurrency-usdforex-eurusdXAGUSDforex-usdcadforex-usdjpysector-gics-1010sector-TechnologyS P 500 indexQuick TakeWeekly NewsletterGlobal Market Quick Take: Europe – 27 March 2024<div class="article-excerpt">The Nikkei traded higher overnight after exporters received a boost from continued yen weakness, even as the rest of Asia struggled for momentum following a late selloff on Wall Street</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Key points:</span></strong></h3> <ul> <li><strong><span>Equities:</span></strong><span> Historically weak Yen fuels rally in Japanese equities. Weak earnings from BYD clouds outlook for EV stocks</span></li> <li><strong><span>FX:</span></strong><span> The yen hits a 34-year low against the dollar</span></li> <li><strong><span>Commodities:</span></strong><span> Crude returns to support on big US stock increase; gold sees profit taking ahead of key US data print</span></li> <li><strong><span>Fixed Income:</span></strong><span> Treasuries rebound after 5-year auction with focus on Friday&rsquo;s US inflation report </span></li> <li><strong><span>Economic data</span></strong><span>: </span><span>Eurozone March Economic Confidence, US crude stocks and speech from Fed&rsquo;s Waller</span></li> </ul> <p><em><span>-----------------------------------------------------------------</span></em></p> <p><em >The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.</em></p> <p><strong >Equities: </strong><span >The Nikkei traded higher overnight after exporters received a boost from continued yen weakness, even as the rest of Asia struggled for momentum (Hang Seng futures down 1%) following a late selloff on Wall Street. In China the mood soured after BYD earnings reports disappointed showing the industry is struggling with growing profitability; this could put renewed pressure on Tesla shares today. In Europe this morning, H&amp;M, the Swedish fast fashion retailer, reports Q1 operating profit of SEK 2.1bn vs est. SEK 1.3bn reiterating that it targets 10% operating margin for FY24. In US retailing yesterday, Visa and Mastercard agreed to cap credit card swipe fees in an antitrust settlement which will save US merchants at least $30bn over five years.</span></p> <p><strong >FX</strong><span >: </span><span >USDJPY surged to 151.97, reaching its highest level in 34 years. The currency pair slightly pulled back to 151.75 after Japan's Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, issued a cautionary statement, indicating the Ministry of Finance's readiness to take "decisive steps" in reaction to currency fluctuations, hinting at the potential for foreign exchange intervention to stop the weakening of the Yen. Overall, the dollar trades near unchanged on the week as quiet pre-Easter trading conditions prevail</span></p> <p><strong >Commodities:</strong><span > Gold pulled back after failing to break $2200 with momentum stalling ahead of Friday&rsquo;s US PCE inflation data, which may determine whether the current buy-on-dip sentiment can be maintained. Crude oil trades lower with Brent and WTI nearing support after the API reported a bumper 9.3 million barrel stock increase, only partly offset by the longest run of gasoline stock declines in a year. Cocoa hit $10k which potentially could signal a peak despite the current stock shortage. Wheat, corn and soybeans ease ahead of US planting and grain stocks data on Thursday</span></p> <p><strong >Fixed income:</strong><span > US Treasury yields closed the day slightly lower, helped by a solid 5-year note auction. The Treasury sold a record $ 67 billion 5-year notes, yet indirect bidders took 70.5% of the auction, the fifth highest on record, leaving primary dealers with 12.7%, the lowest since September 2023. The note sale benefitted from month and quarter-end flow, the fourth highest auction yield for this tenor on record, and the notes&rsquo; optimal risk-reward. With a yield of 4.235%, assuming a one-year holding period, yields need to rise above 5.5% to enter the red. Today, the focus is on the $43 billion 7-year notes auction, which doesn&rsquo;t offer such an appealing risk-reward and might not attract the solid bidding metrics such as the 5-year note sale yesterday.</span></p> <p><strong >Macro:</strong><span > </span><span >US Durable Goods Orders grew 1.4% in February, stronger than the median forecast of 1% but the decline in January was revised to -6.9% from -6.2%. Excluding the volatile component of transportation, orders grew 0.5% (consensus: 0.4%, prior: revised to -0.3% from -0.4%). <strong>Australia&rsquo;s CPI grew 3.4% Y/Y in February</strong>, slightly below the 3.5% projected by economists and remained at the same rate in January. The core CPI growth decelerated to 3.9% Y/Y from 4.1% but the trimmed mean CPI came in at 3.9% Y/Y, ticking up from 3.8% the prior month. <strong>China's industrial profits</strong> amounted to 9140.6 billion yuan in the first two months of the year, marking a turnaround from a 2.3% decline the previous year to a growth of 10.2%. Looking at sectoral performance, profits in mining declined by 21.1% year-on-year, while those in manufacturing grew by 17.4% and utilities increased by 63.1%. Among the 41 major industries, 29 experienced year-on-year profit growth. Notably, computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing saw profits double.</span><span ></span></p> <p><strong><span>Technical analysis highlights: Main events: </span></strong><span>DAX &amp; Eurostoxx50 higher, indicators supporting DAX to 19K. Cocoa could have topped out after spiking above 10K<strong> </strong></span><span><br /> </span><strong><span>S&amp;P 500 </span></strong><span>new top and reversal pattern, uptrend stretched. <strong>Nasdaq 100.</strong> Top and reversal intact, key support at 17,808. Needs to close above 18,417 to cancel. </span><span><br /> </span><strong><span>EURUSD </span></strong><span>could be range bound 1.08-1.09 for next few days. <strong>USDJPY </strong>testing key resistance at 151.95. <strong>EURJPY </strong>uptrend intact, support at 163.69. <strong>USDCHF </strong>testing strong resistance at 0.9050. <strong>USDCAD </strong>range bound 1.3440-1.3620. <strong>Gold </strong>failed once again to close above resistance at 2,195. key support at 2,146. <strong>Cocoa </strong>spiked above 10K only to slide back, could be top. <strong>US 10-year T-yield</strong> likely range bound 4.20-4.35 strong resist</span></p> <p><strong >Volatility:</strong><span > Yesterday, the VIX remained almost unchanged at $13.24 (+0.05 | +0.38%) in a quiet trading session, with no major news or data releases influencing the markets. The modest change suggests that volatility might remain confined to a narrow range for the time being. VIX futures edged down to 14.150 (-0.195 | -1.37%), indicating a slight cooling in near-term volatility expectations. Meanwhile, S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures showed resilience, rebounding from a slight downturn at yesterday's close, with increases of +16.50 (+0.31%) and +57.25 (+0.31%). Trading activity was most pronounced in options for TSLA, NVDA, AAPL, AMD, MU, META, DJT, CCL, ARM, and AMZN.</span></p> <p><strong >In the news: </strong><span >BoE's Mann says markets are pricing in too many rate cuts (</span><span ><a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.reuters.com/markets/europe/boes-mann-says-markets-are-pricing-too-many-rate-cuts-2024-03-26/__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!trUgjLjAHhjnNKtFwhuelygZQwSx63FfFxZaTkDTVxlGpPrhaWlLcPBopBeklVtlzpgWJz22Ao64gTxTTdm6bg$">Reuters</a></span><span >), Truth Social Stock Price Surges on First Day of Trading, Increasing Trump&rsquo;s Fortune (</span><span ><a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.wsj.com/finance/truth-social-stock-trades-dwac-trump-18a6cd74?st=2c2y5lscq973ozb&amp;reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!trUgjLjAHhjnNKtFwhuelygZQwSx63FfFxZaTkDTVxlGpPrhaWlLcPBopBeklVtlzpgWJz22Ao64gTxpirh8RQ$">WSJ</a></span><span >), iPhone Shipments in China Fell 33% in February, State Data Show (</span><span ><a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-26/iphone-china-shipments-fell-about-33-in-feb-state-data-show?utm_source=website&amp;utm_medium=share&amp;utm_campaign=copy__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!trUgjLjAHhjnNKtFwhuelygZQwSx63FfFxZaTkDTVxlGpPrhaWlLcPBopBeklVtlzpgWJz22Ao64gTxx6zmkYA$">Bloomberg</a></span><span >), Merck&rsquo;s $11.5 Billion Bet on Its Next Big Drug Finally Arrives (</span><span ><a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.wsj.com/health/pharma/merck-new-drug-winrevair-pulmonary-hypertension-db2c19a3?st=1pqwsrsm6sdxzha&amp;reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!trUgjLjAHhjnNKtFwhuelygZQwSx63FfFxZaTkDTVxlGpPrhaWlLcPBopBeklVtlzpgWJz22Ao64gTyNnr96NA$">WSJ</a></span><span >), China's Xi Jinping to meet with American executives on Wednesday, sources say (</span><span ><a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.reuters.com/business/chinas-xi-jinping-meet-with-american-executives-wednesday-sources-say-2024-03-26/__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!trUgjLjAHhjnNKtFwhuelygZQwSx63FfFxZaTkDTVxlGpPrhaWlLcPBopBeklVtlzpgWJz22Ao64gTxsHRBtqQ$">Reuters</a></span><span >), Cocoa prices are soaring to record levels. What it means for consumers and why &lsquo;the worst is still yet to come&rsquo; (</span><span ><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/26/cocoa-prices-are-soaring-to-record-levels-what-it-means-for-consumers.html">CNBC</a></span><span >).</span><strong ></strong></p> <p><strong><span>Macro events (all times are GMT): </span></strong><span>Eurozone March Economic Confidence est. 96.2 vs 95.4 prior (0900), EIA&rsquo;s weekly crude and fuel stock report (1330), Fed&rsquo;s Waller speaks on economic outlook (2100).</span></p> <p><strong >Earnings events: </strong><span >Today&rsquo;s key earnings events are Carnival and H&amp;M, both giving clues on the health of the consumers. Analysts expect Carnival to report FY24 Q1 (ending 28 Feb) revenue growth of 22% YoY and EPS of $-0.17 compared to $-0.55 a year ago in a sign that the cruise industry is healing but high debt levels are eating up cash flow from operations.</span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>Today:</span></strong><span> ICBC, China Life Insurance, Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, Cintas, Paychex, Carnival (bef-mkt), H&amp;M</span></li> <li><strong><span>Thursday:</span></strong><span> Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, CITIC, Walgreens Boots Alliance</span></li> </ul> <p><span >For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo&rsquo;s </span><span ><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar">calendar</a></span></p></div></div><div><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/saxo-be-invested.png?mw=48" alt="Saxo Strategy Team" /><div>Saxo Strategy Team</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>China</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span>United States</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>USDCAD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy (Sector)</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span></div>Wed, 27 Mar 2024 07:30:00 Z2024-03-27T07:43:05Z{2845DF24-803E-413F-821E-A2B3661AE812}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---episode-13---the-versatility-of-strangles---long-and-short-strategies-27032024Koen Hoorelbekeproduct-optionsproduct-equity optionsThought Startersproduct-contractoptionsproduct-optionsInvesting with optionsWhat are your optionsOptions educationOptions podcastEpisode 13 of 'Saxo Options Talk': the versatility of strangles: long and short strategies<div class="article-excerpt">'Saxo Options Talk' Episode 13 delves into strangles, a flexible option strategy that caters to various market conditions. Koen Hoorelbeke and Peter Siks skillfully unpack long and short strangle strategies, providing insights for traders and investors alike to navigate markets rife with uncertainty.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><div data-message-author-role="assistant" data-message-id="8e6cecbd-7469-4cd6-8dda-58936073cce2"> <div> <p class="text--body">Options are complex, high-risk products and require knowledge, investment experience and, in many applications, high risk acceptance. We recommend that before you invest in options, you inform yourself well about the operation and risks.</p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span>Introducing Episode 13 - The Versatility of Strangles: Long and Short Strategies</span></h2> <p>The latest episode of 'Saxo Options Talk' titled "The Versatility of Strangles: Long and Short Strategies" brings to the trading table a thorough exploration of strangles. This powerful episode arms listeners with the know-how to execute both long and short strangles to capitalize on market volatility.<br /> <br /> <iframe title="Episode 13 - Long and Short Strangles" allowtransparency="true" height="150" width="100%" scrolling="no" data-name="pb-iframe-player" src="https://www.podbean.com/player-v2/?i=djhw5-15c27ff-pb&amp;from=pb6admin&amp;pbad=0&amp;share=1&amp;download=1&amp;rtl=0&amp;fonts=Arial&amp;skin=1&amp;font-color=auto&amp;logo_link=episode_page&amp;btn-skin=7" loading="lazy"></iframe></p> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><span>Strategizing with Strangles</span></h4> <ul> <li><span>Understanding Strangles:</span> Gain a clear understanding of what strangles are and how they can be structured as neutral or directional strategies based on market forecasts.</li> <li><span>Delta Neutrality and Strategy:</span> Explore why strangles often aim for delta neutrality, balancing the position to mitigate immediate risk from price movements.</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><span>Operational Tactics</span></h4> <ul> <li><span>Setting Up for Success:</span> Learn the intricacies of setting up a strangle, including the selection of call and put strikes using delta and technical analysis as guiding principles.</li> <li><span>Optimizing Expiry and Profitability:</span> Discuss the pivotal role of time to expiry (DTE) in strategy management and methods to lock in profits from a strangle position.</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><span>Managing Risks and Capital</span></h4> <ul> <li><span>Balancing Margin and Trade Size:</span> Examine the critical aspect of margin usage in strangles and the vital importance of position sizing in risk management.</li> <li><span>Adjustments and Loss Mitigation:</span> Navigate through strategies to adjust strangles in response to market movements and understand when it might be necessary to recenter or accept losses.</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><span>Advanced Application and Adaptation</span></h4> <ul> <li><span>Covering Strangles with Holdings:</span> Analyze the added layer of strategy when combining strangles with holding the underlying assets and how this could benefit a broader investment strategy.</li> <li><span>Exploring Strangle Variants:</span> Get a brief introduction to variations on the classic strangle setup, like iron condors and synthetic strangles, offering a preview into more sophisticated options tactics.</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><span>Why Episode 13 is a Must-Listen</span></h4> <p>Whether you're contemplating how to play an uncertain market or looking for hedging strategies, Episode 13 of 'Saxo Options Talk' is a treasure trove of strategic guidance.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><span>Subscribe and stay ahead</span></h4> <p>Ensure you don't miss this insightful episode by <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://optionstalk.podbean.com/" target="_blank">subscribing to 'Saxo Options Talk' on Podbean</a>, or <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://open.spotify.com/show/0OJiRZ6hlSyGE6yIMGQZX1?si=fI5ib7e1RZKd-dJ4-M3gcQ" target="_blank">on Spotify</a>.&nbsp;Keep yourself updated with the latest strategies and discussions in options trading.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><span>Join the discussion</span></h4> <p>After tuning in, join me on my <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.threads.net/@koen.hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Threads profile</a> to share your thoughts and insights on the episode. It's an excellent platform for engaging with fellow traders and enhancing our collective understanding of options strategies.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><span>Your questions, our answers</span></h4> <p>We're eager to hear from you! Send your options-related questions to <a target="_new" href="mailto:optionquestions@saxobank.com">optionquestions@saxobank.com</a>. Selected questions will be addressed in future episodes, providing customized advice and insights.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><span>Conclusion:</span></h4> <p><span>In "The Versatility of Strangles: Long and Short Strategies," Episode 13 of 'Saxo Options Talk,' Koen and Peter illuminate the paths traders and investors can take in volatile and unpredictable markets. With their expert guidance, you're set to deploy strangle strategies with confidence, whether aiming for aggressive gains or conservative protection.</span></p> </div> </div></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><hr /> <h5 class="article-heading--5"><span>For continuous insights and updates on market/options strategies, interact with me/follow&nbsp;</span><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.threads.net/@koen.hoorelbeke" target="_blank">my social media account on Threads</a><span>.</span><br /> <br /> </h5> <hr /> <h4>Previous episodes of the "Saxo Options Talk"&nbsp;podcast</h4> <ul> <li>20 Mar 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---episode-12---defined-vs-undefined-risk-strategies-20032024">Options Talk - Episode 12 - Defined vs undefined risk strategies</a></li> <li>13 Mar 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---episode-11---stretched-synthetic-stock-using-options-13032024">Options Talk - Episode 11 - Stretched Synthetic Stock using Options</a></li> <li>6 Mar 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---episode-10---synthetic-stock-06032024">Options Talk - Episode 10 - Synthetic Stock</a></li> <li>28 Feb 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---episode-09---volatility-28022024">Options Talk - Episode 09 - Volatility</a></li> <li>21 Feb 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---episode-08---rolling-21022024">Options Talk - Episode 08 - Rolling</a></li> <li>14 Feb 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---episode-07---put-spreads-14022024">Options Talk - Episode 07 - Put Spreads</a></li> <li>7 Feb 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---episode-06---delta-07022024">Options Talk - Episode 06 - Delta</a></li> <li>31 Jan 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---episode-05---short-call-spreads-31012024">Options Talk - Episode 05 - Short Call Spreads</a></li> <li>24 Jan 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---episode-04---long-call-spreads-24012024">Options Talk - Episode 04 - Long Call Spreads</a></li> <li>17 Jan 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---episode-03---long-calls-17012024">Options Talk - Episode 03 - Long Calls</a></li> <li>10 Jan 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---introducing--options-talk-by-koen-and-peter---your-weekly-podcast-on-options-trading-10012024">Options Talk - Introducing -Options Talk by Koen and Peter- -Your Weekly Podcast on Options Trading</a></li> </ul> <h4>Previous "Volatility reports":&nbsp;</h4> <ul> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/volatility-report---week-13---25-mar-24----29-mar-24-26032024">Volatility report - week 13 - 25 mar 24 -- 29 mar 24</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/volatility-report---week-12---18-mar-24----22-mar-24-19032024">Volatility report - week 12 - 18 mar 24 -- 22 mar 24</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/volatility-report---week-11---11-mar-24----15-mar-24-12032024">Volatility report - week 11 - 11 mar 24 -- 15 mar 24</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/volatility-report---week-10---4-mar-24----8-mar-24-05032024">Volatility report - week 10 - 4 mar 24 -- 8 mar 24</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/volatility-report---week-9---26-feb-24----1-mar-24-27022024">Volatility report - week 9 - 26 feb 24 -- 1 mar 24</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/volatility-report---week-8---19-feb-24----23-feb-24-20022024">Volatility report - week 8 - 19 feb 24 -- 23 feb 24</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/volatility-report---week-7---12-feb-24----16-feb-24-13022024">Volatility report - week 7 - 12 feb 24 -- 16 feb 24</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/volatility-report---week-6---5-feb-24----9-feb-24-06022024">Volatility report - week 6 - 5 feb 24 -- 9 feb 24</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/volatility-report---week-5---29-jan-24----2-feb-24-30012024">Volatility report - week 5 - 29 jan 24 -- 2 feb 24</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/volatility-report---week-4---22-jan-24----26-jan-24-22012024">Volatility report - week 4 - 22 jan 24 -- 26 jan 24</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/volatility-report---week-3---15-jan-24----19-jan-24-15012024">Volatility report - week 3 - 15 jan 24 -- 19 jan 24</a></li> </ul> <h4>Previous "Investing with options" articles:&nbsp;</h4> <ul> <li>8 Mar 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---gold-optionality-08032024">Investing with options - Gold optionality</a></li> <li>19 Feb 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---securing-your-tech-stock-gains-with-simple-hedging-strategies---2of2-19022024">Investing with options - Securing your tech stock gains with simple hedging strategies - 2of2</a></li> <li>19 Feb 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---securing-your-tech-stock-gains-with-simple-hedging-strategies---1of2-19022024">Investing with options - Securing your tech stock gains with simple hedging strategies - 1of2</a></li> <li>2 Feb 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---microsoft---buying-stock-or-options---a-comparison-02022024">Investing with options - Microsoft - buying stock or options - a comparison</a></li> <li>25 Jan 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-fx-options---hedging-usdjpy-currency-risk-25012024">Investing with FX options - Hedging USDJPY currency risk</a></li> <li>8 Jan 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-fx-options---hedging-currency-risk-08012024">Investing with FX options - Hedging currency risk</a></li> <li>30 Nov 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---gld---gold-etf-30112023">Investing with options - striking gold (GLD)</a></li> <li>23 Nov 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---hedging-the-nasdaq-100-23112023">Investing with options - hedging the Nasdaq 100</a></li> <li>17 Nov 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---nvidia---pre-earnings-17112023">Investing with options - Nvidia - pre-earnings</a></li> <li>10 Nov 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---adyen---post-investor-day-10112023">Investing with options - AdYen - post investor day</a></li> <li>31 Oct 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---novo-nordisk-earnings-31102023">Investing with options - Novo Nordisk earnings</a></li> <li>31 Oct 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---apple-earnings-31102023">Investing with options - Apple earnings</a></li> <li>24 Oct 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---amazon-earnings-24102023">Investing with options - Amazon earnings</a></li> <li>24 Oct 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---meta-platforms-earnings-24102023">Investing with options - Meta Platforms earnings</a></li> <li>23 Oct 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---alphabet-earnings-23102023">Investing with options - Alphabet earnings</a></li> <li>20 Oct 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---microsoft-earnings-20102023">Investing with options - Microsoft earnings</a></li> <li>18 Oct 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---tesla-earnings-18102023">Investing with options - Tesla earnings</a></li> <li>17 Oct 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---long-bonds---tlt-17102023">Investing with options - long bonds - TLT</a></li> </ul> <h4>Previous "What are your options" articles:&nbsp;</h4> <ul> <li>23 Feb 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/what-are-your-fx-options---nzdusd-and-nzdjpy-23022024">What are your FX options - NZDUSD and NZDJPY</a></li> <li>12 Feb 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/what-are-your-fx-options---usdjpy---after-148-breakout-12022024">What are your FX options - USDJPY - after 148 breakout</a></li> <li>24 Jan 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/what-are-your-options---tesla-q4-earnings-24012024">What are your options - Tesla Q4 Earnings</a></li> <li>18 Jan 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/what-are-your-fx-options---eurusd-elevated-volatility-18012024">What are your FX options - EURUSD elevated volatility</a></li> <li>12 Jan 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/what-are-your-options---coinbase-after-btc-etf-approval-12012024">What are your options - Coinbase after BTC ETF approval</a></li> <li>21 Nov 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/what-are-your-options---nvidia-earnings-21112023">What are your options - Nvidia earnings</a></li> <li>08 Nov 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/what-are-your-options---disney-earnings-08112023">What are your options - Disney earnings</a></li> <li>26 Oct 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/what-are-your-options---nasdaq-selling-premium-26102023">What are your options - Nasdaq Selling Premium</a></li> <li>29 Aug 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/what-are-your-options---salesforce-earnings-29082023">What are your options - Salesforce earnings</a></li> <li>25 Aug 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/what-are-your-options---the-qs---nasdaq-etf-25082023">What are your options - the Qs - Nasdaq etf</a></li> <li>23 Aug 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/what-are-your-options---nvidia---earnings---market-reactions-23082023">What are your options - Nvidia - earnings - market reactions</a></li> <li>21 Aug 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/what-are-your-options---swing-trading-semi-conductors---stocks-vs-options-21082023">What are your options - swing trading semi-conductors - stocks vs options</a></li> <li>18 Aug 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/what-are-your-options---using-tlt-as-an-inverse-proxy-for-the-10-year-yield-18082023">What are your options - using TLT as an inverse proxy for the 10 year yield</a></li> </ul> <p><span >Related articles:</span></p> <ul> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/from-zero-to-hero---buying-options-05092023">From zero to hero - buying options</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/from-zero-to-hero---selling-options-12092023">From zero to hero - selling options</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/from-zero-to-hero---selling-options-12092023"></a><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/from-zero-to-hero---option-strategies-06112023">From zero to hero - option strategies</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/from-zero-to-hero---options-lexicon-20112023">From zero to hero - options lexicon</a><br /> <br /> </li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/why-options-strategies-belong-in-every-traders-toolbox-05072023">Why options strategies belong in every traders toolbox</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/understanding-and-calculating-the-expected-move-of-a-stock-etf-index-07072023">Understanding and calculating the expected move of a stock etf index<br /> </a>&nbsp;</li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/understanding-delta---a-key-guide-for-investors-and-traders---part-1-26072023">Understanding Delta - a key guide for Investors and Traders - part 1</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/understanding-delta---a-key-guide-for-investors-and-traders---part-2-07082023">Understanding Delta - a key guide for Investors and Traders - part 2<br /> &nbsp;</a></li> <li><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/trading-0dtes---get-your-feet-wet---without-drowning---part-1-04092023">Trading 0DTEs - get your feet wet - without drowning - part 1</a></span></li> <li><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/trading-0dtes---get-your-feet-wet---without-drowning---part-2-07092023">Trading 0DTEs - get your feet wet - without drowning - part 2</a></span></li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"></h4></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><div><hr /> <div>Options are complex, high-risk products and require knowledge, investment experience and, in many applications, high risk acceptance. We recommend that before you invest in options, you inform yourself well about the operation and risks. In Saxo Bank's Terms of Use you will find more information on this in the Important Information Options, Futures, Margin and Deficit Procedure. You can also consult the Essential Information Document of the option you want to invest in on Saxo Bank's website.&nbsp;</div> </div></div></div><div><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/koen-hoorelbeke-400x400-v2.jpg?mw=48" alt="Koen Hoorelbeke" /><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/equity-options">Equity Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/contract-options">Contract Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <span>Investing with options</span> <span>What are your options</span> <span>Options education</span> <span>Options podcast</span></div>Wed, 27 Mar 2024 05:00:00 Z2024-03-27T04:41:23Z{28394B9D-12DC-4CE9-979F-00772C358539}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/macro/global-market-quick-take-asia--march-27-2024-27032024Redmond Wongproduct-macroproduct-commoditiesproduct-forexproduct-macroMacro-FXmacro-central banksmacro-gdpmacro-indicesplace-lr/aspAPAC Market DigestFeatured Market Update APACAPACplace-lc/gbplace-lc/usplace-lc/auplace-lc/cncommodity-crude oilOilsector-Oil and Gasplace-lr/eurcurrency-usdforex-eurusdforex-usdjpyforex-audusdcurrency-gbpforex-gbpusdcommodity-goldFederal Reserveproduct-bondssubject-is/fin.stpbondproduct-equitiesforex-cadjpyforex-gbpjpyforex-chfjpyforex-audjpycurrency-jpyforex-eurjpyECBplace-lc/jpInflationcurrency-sekforex-eursekforex-noksekEURSEKforex-gbpcadforex-gbpchfforex-gbpaudforex-eurgbpEURGBPGBPUSDGBPJPYplace-lc/saforex-audnzdcurrency-audAUDUSDAUDJPYcurrency-nokforex-eurnokforex-usdnokEURNOKforex-xauusdXAUUSDXAGUSDXAGUSDDow Jones IndexGlobal Market Quick Take: Asia – March 27, 2024<div class="article-excerpt">On its debut day, Trump Media & Technology Group surged 58.8% after merging with a SPAC, settling at $57.99, a 16.1% increase from the SPAC's previous close. Tesla rose 2.9% with new initiatives for its Full Self Driving system. </div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong><span></span></strong><em >The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.&nbsp;</em></p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/27_qt.jpg"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong><span>Equities</span></strong><span>: On its first day of being publicly listed through merging with a SPAC, Trump Media &amp; Technology Group, ticker DJT, soared 58.8% at one point before settling at $57.99, up 16.1% from the previous closing price of the SPAC. Tesla gained 2.9% after the EV giant rolled out new initiatives to boost the adoption of its Full Self Driving system. It was a top performer within the Nasdaq 100, which fell 0.4%, while the S&amp;P 500 slid 0.3% on Tuesday. Bucking the decline were Micron Technology, gaining 1.4%, and Seagate, surging 7.4%. However, Nvidia shed 2.6%.</span></p> <p><span>In Hong Kong, market sentiments were boosted by a 3.7% surge in Tencent, along with notable gains in Baidu, Lenovo, Xiaomi, Longfor, and China Merchant Bank. The Hang Seng Index gained 1%. Baidu climbed 3.7%, driven by news of providing AI services for Apple's iPhone and other products for the China market. Xiaomi's SU7 is scheduled for an official launch on March 28th, propelling its share price by 3.2%. China Merchants Bank rose 4.3% after reporting earnings and declaring dividends exceeding expectations. In the A-share market, the CSI300 gained 0.5%.</span></p> <p><span>After the Hong Kong market close, BYD reported a 15% Y/Y growth in revenue to RMB180 billion in Q4, slightly below the analyst estimate of RMB193 billion. Adjusted net income came in at RMB8.7 billion, below the RMB10.1 billion projected in Bloomberg&rsquo;s survey of analysts. Gross margins slid 0.9 points from the previous quarter while rising 2.2 points from a year ago to 21.2%. However, operating margins in Q4 declined 2.1 points from Q3 and 1.0 points a year ago Q4, as the EV maker cut prices and boosted research and development, spending 32% Q/Q and 88% Y/Y more on R&amp;D. </span></p> <p><span>Alibaba called off the IPO of its logistics subsidiary, Cainiao Smart Logistics Network. This is likely to disappoint investors as the Chinese technology giant&rsquo;s restructuring plan tumbles further. </span></p> <p><strong><span>FX:&nbsp;</span></strong><span> The dollar recovered from early weakness to nearly unchanged against major currencies, with USDJPY at 151.50, EURUSD at 1.0830, GBPUSD at 1.2630, and AUDUSD at 0.6540.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Commodities:&nbsp;</span></strong><span> Iron ore futures traded in Singapore declined by over 4% on Tuesday amid rising concerns about weak demand from Chinese steel makers. </span></p> <p><strong><span>Fixed income: </span></strong><span>Treasuries traded within a narrow range, bouncing between small gains and losses as traders awaited the PCE data, the Fed&rsquo;s preferred inflation gauge this Friday. The 10-year yield ticked down 1bp to 4.23% while the 2-year yield declined by 3bps to 4.59%.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Macro:</span></strong></p> <ul > <li><span>US Durable Goods Orders grew 1.4% in February, stronger than the median forecast of 1% but the decline in January was revised to -6.9% from -6.2%. Excluding the volatile component of transportation, orders grew 0.5% (consensus: 0.4%, prior: revised to -0.3% from -0.4%). </span></li> <li><span>Australia&rsquo;s CPI grew 3.4% Y/Y in February, slightly below the 3.5% projected by economists and remained at the same rate in January. The core CPI growth decelerated to 3.9% Y/Y from 4.1% but the trimmed mean CPI came in at 3.9% Y/Y, ticking up from 3.8% the prior month.</span></li> </ul> <p><strong><span>Macro events:</span></strong><span>&nbsp;China Industrial Profits, France Consumer Confidence (Mar), Eurozone Economic Confidence (Mar)</span></p> <p><strong><span>Earnings:</span></strong><span>&nbsp;ICBC, China Life Insurance, Midea, Bank of Communications, Haier Smart Home, China Everbright Bank, CGN Power, Cintas, Paychex</span></p> <p><strong><span>In the news:</span></strong></p> <ul> <li><span>BoE's Mann says markets are pricing in too many rate cuts (<a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.reuters.com/markets/europe/boes-mann-says-markets-are-pricing-too-many-rate-cuts-2024-03-26/__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!usFaj_aBKJOmTHPl75UcgCufykRl0p_SYUjckI02-5wWoBlOiFgdJAUGTWapcpfpdSrnazBZUxBZPIBUNEriCw$">Reuters</a>)</span></li> <li><span>Truth Social Stock Price Surges on First Day of Trading, Increasing Trump&rsquo;s Fortune (<a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.wsj.com/finance/truth-social-stock-trades-dwac-trump-18a6cd74?st=2c2y5lscq973ozb&amp;reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!usFaj_aBKJOmTHPl75UcgCufykRl0p_SYUjckI02-5wWoBlOiFgdJAUGTWapcpfpdSrnazBZUxBZPICqc_35qQ$">WSJ</a>)</span></li> <li><span>Alibaba Scraps Logistics Arm&rsquo;s IPO After Market Turmoil Worsens (<a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-26/alibaba-calls-off-cainiao-s-ipo-after-market-slump-worsens?utm_source=website&amp;utm_medium=share&amp;utm_campaign=copy__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!usFaj_aBKJOmTHPl75UcgCufykRl0p_SYUjckI02-5wWoBlOiFgdJAUGTWapcpfpdSrnazBZUxBZPIDY5Pt4VQ$">Bloomberg</a>)</span></li> <li><span>iPhone Shipments in China Fell 33% in February, State Data Show (<a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-26/iphone-china-shipments-fell-about-33-in-feb-state-data-show?utm_source=website&amp;utm_medium=share&amp;utm_campaign=copy__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!usFaj_aBKJOmTHPl75UcgCufykRl0p_SYUjckI02-5wWoBlOiFgdJAUGTWapcpfpdSrnazBZUxBZPIDkJhEm8g$">Bloomberg</a>)</span></li> <li><span>BYD&rsquo;s annual earnings surge 81% to all-time high on record EV deliveries, warns of weak consumer demand and global headwinds (<a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/sc.mp/qzqog?utm_source=copy-link&amp;utm_campaign=3256833&amp;utm_medium=share_widget__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!usFaj_aBKJOmTHPl75UcgCufykRl0p_SYUjckI02-5wWoBlOiFgdJAUGTWapcpfpdSrnazBZUxBZPIDC35oM9g$">SCMP</a>)</span></li> <li><span>Baidu Shares Rise After Reports That Apple Will Use Its AI Services in China Products (</span><span><a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.wsj.com/tech/ai/baidu-shares-rise-on-news-that-apple-will-use-its-ai-services-in-china-products-fede5a4f?st=zgnpy59mntjy56f&amp;reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!usFaj_aBKJOmTHPl75UcgCufykRl0p_SYUjckI02-5wWoBlOiFgdJAUGTWapcpfpdSrnazBZUxBZPIBzTlTSIQ$"><span>WSJ</span></a></span><span>)</span></li> <li><span>Merck&rsquo;s $11.5 Billion Bet on Its Next Big Drug Finally Arrives (<a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.wsj.com/health/pharma/merck-new-drug-winrevair-pulmonary-hypertension-db2c19a3?st=1pqwsrsm6sdxzha&amp;reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!usFaj_aBKJOmTHPl75UcgCufykRl0p_SYUjckI02-5wWoBlOiFgdJAUGTWapcpfpdSrnazBZUxBZPIArjBuNYA$">WSJ</a>)</span></li> <li><span>Thailand, Philippines embrace nuclear power to cut emissions (</span><span><a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/asia.nikkei.com/Business/Energy/Thailand-Philippines-embrace-nuclear-power-to-cut-emissions?utm_campaign=GL_asia_daily&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=NA_newsletter&amp;utm_content=article_link&amp;del_type=1&amp;pub_date=20240326190000&amp;seq_num=3&amp;si=9ece4e51-24f5-4dcc-8518-bb612fc1c18f__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!usFaj_aBKJOmTHPl75UcgCufykRl0p_SYUjckI02-5wWoBlOiFgdJAUGTWapcpfpdSrnazBZUxBZPICYeVG4NA$"><span>Nikkei Asia</span></a></span><span>)</span></li> <li><span>China's Xi Jinping to meet with American executives on Wednesday, sources say (<a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.reuters.com/business/chinas-xi-jinping-meet-with-american-executives-wednesday-sources-say-2024-03-26/__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!usFaj_aBKJOmTHPl75UcgCufykRl0p_SYUjckI02-5wWoBlOiFgdJAUGTWapcpfpdSrnazBZUxBZPIBWkqGC-g$">Reuters</a>)</span></li> </ul> <p><span>&nbsp;</span></p> <p><span>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo&rsquo;s </span><span><a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/calendar__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!s9h6Lxrg5HnW-eaWk8tithFc-W0n--QMbcd4gCbGcsfsr8F4qW3WsLXo8BbCgDcDp3oD1lF8AZcy_oIvBlBzWQ$"><span>calendar.</span></a></span></p> <p><span>For a global look at markets &ndash; go to </span><span><a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration?activetab=latest__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!s9h6Lxrg5HnW-eaWk8tithFc-W0n--QMbcd4gCbGcsfsr8F4qW3WsLXo8BbCgDcDp3oD1lF8AZcy_oJJtW5lSw$"><span>Inspiration</span></a></span></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/authors/redmond-wong"><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/redmond-wong-400x400.png?mw=48" alt="Redmond Wong" /><div>Redmond Wong</div><div>Chief China Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Macro FX</span> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>United States</span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span></div>Wed, 27 Mar 2024 00:30:00 Z2024-03-27T01:40:11Z{C471962A-1E9B-4B3F-8833-A371B9BB6301}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/technical-analysis-airbus-soaring-boeing-in-turbulence-26032024Kim Cramer Larssonproduct-equitiesTechnical analysisFocus ArticleTechnical Update - Airbus soaring above the clouds. Boeing in turbulence. Any sign of tailwind ahead?<div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><ul> <li><span><strong>Boeing's recent price action includes a Bullish Engulfing pattern, indicating potential reversal, but the subsequent bearish candle suggests caution. The troubled plane maker could very well be hit with more selling pressure pushing Boeing to test key support at 176.25</strong></span> <p><strong><span>&nbsp;</span></strong></p> </li> <li><strong><span>Airbus shares have outperformed Boeing recently, but indicators suggest a potential for a correction.&nbsp;<br /> </span>Despite high RSI levels and recent Doji candles, the absence of divergence means the uptrend could persist, with key support levels identified for any pullback</strong></li> </ul> <p>On March 20th, <strong>Boeing </strong>exhibited a Bullish Engulfing pattern, signaling a potential reversal after testing significant support between 177.73 and 176.25. Despite this positive indicator, a bearish candle formed yesterday, casting doubt on the sustainability of the reversal.</p> <p>For a more definitive bullish signal, Boeing needs to close above yesterday's high of 196.18, targeting the resistance at approximately 198.32. Overcoming this resistance could pave the way to stronger resistance levels between 215.16 and 217.70.</p> <p>A daily closure above 217.70 would solidify a bullish outlook in both the short and medium term. The RSI's behavior is also pivotal; a close above the 60 threshold would indicate positive sentiment, supporting the potential for further upside.</p> <p>Conversely, if Boeing fails to surpass 198.32, it may revisit the support zone between 177.73 and 176.25, challenging the validity of the recent bullish pattern.</p> <p>The weekly chart emphasizes the critical nature of the 176.25 support level. Breaching this support could trigger a sell-off, with the next substantial support not until around 121, aside from a minor support at 141.88. This level aligns with the 1.382 Fibonacci projection from the October 2023 to March 2024 peak to trough, with the 1.618 projection nearing the September 2022 low at 121.</p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/ba-d-2603.png"/></div><div class="rte--output">Source all charts and data: Saxo Group</div><br/><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/ba-w-2603.png"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong>Airbus </strong>has shown stronger performance compared to Boeing over the past few months, but current short-term indicators suggest the uptrend may be overstretched.<br /> With the RSI above 80, signaling overbought conditions, and recent Doji candles indicating indecision, there's a hint that a reversal could be imminent. However, the lack of divergence in the RSI suggests that the stock could still have room to climb.</p> <p>Should Airbus encounter a negative trading day following the "indecision" days, it will have formed a top and reversal pattern, with the lower rising trendline expected to be tested in such a scenario. <br /> Key support levels at around 159.32 and 152.20.</p> <p>In the medium term (weekly chart), Airbus is approaching the 100% Extension of the Q4 2022 to Q3 2023 uptrend at 172.52, suggesting trend exhaustion and a correction might be near. <br /> <br /> If the RSI clsoes below its lower rising trendline, it could signal the start of this correction. Yet, with no RSI divergence observed even on the weekly chart, the potential for higher trading levels after a correction remains.</p> <p><strong>How much higher can Airbus fly?</strong><br /> The "Linton Price Target" Indicator points towards a target of 177, which is nearly reached. Any correction followed by a resumption of the uptrend could lead to a recalibration of this target.<br /> <br /> (The Linton Price Target Indicator is developed by Updata Analytics and is based on Point&amp;Figure charting and Fibonacci ratios)</p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/airbus-d-2603.png"/></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/airbus-w-2603.png"/></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/airbus-linton-price.png"/></div><div class="rte--output">Source: Update Analytics</div><br/><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/authors/kim-cramer-larsson"><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/kim-cramer-larsson-400x400.png?mw=48" alt="Kim Cramer Larsson" /><div>Kim Cramer Larsson</div><div>Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Technical analysis</span> <span>Focus Article</span></div>Tue, 26 Mar 2024 12:24:07 Z2024-03-26T14:29:54Z{DA15DA2A-420F-4894-9D94-3DEC7104F754}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/forex/technical-analysis-eurusd-gbpusd-rebounding-from-strong-supports-26032024Kim Cramer Larssonproduct-forexTechnical analysisforex-gbpusdcurrency-usdforex-eurusdcurrency-gbpcurrency-eurTechnical Update - EURUSD and GBPUSD bouncing from key support. Resuming uptrend? <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><ul> <li><span><strong>EURUSD has rebounded from key strong support at 1.08. Technical Indicator is suggesting potential short-term gains towards 1.09, potentially higher</strong></span></li> <li><span><strong>GBPUSD has rebounded from key strong support at 1.26. The rebound could continue to 1.2772 level potentially higher</strong></span><br /> <br /> </li> </ul> <p><strong>EURUSD</strong> has bounced off key strong support level and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at around 1.08, moving back above the 55-day moving average (DMA). <br /> This recovery sets the stage for potential short-term gains, with an immediate target at the 0.618 retracement level of 1.0913, which is closely aligned with the upper boundary of the Ichimoku Cloud.</p> <p>A daily close above this level could propel EURUSD towards the 0.786 retracement and significant resistance level at approximately 1.0943.<br /> <br /> The RSI, also bouncing from the 40 threshold, is showing positive sentiment, suggesting the likelihood of the currency pair resuming its uptrend.</p> <p>If the RSI closes above the 60 threshold, it would further confirm the bullish scenario, potentially leading EURUSD to surpass the resistance levels at 1.0943 potentially also 1.0981.</p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/eurusd-d-2603.png"/></div><div class="rte--output">Source all charts and data: Saxo Group</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong>GBPUSD</strong> has rebounded from key strong support level and the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement at around 1.26, despite dipping below it twice. <br /> This bounce-back sets the stage for a potential upward movement, which could lead the pair towards the 0.618 retracement at 1.2772, situated just below a strong resistance zone between 1.2785 and 1.28.</p> <p>The RSI's position and movement are key. If the RSI closes above its falling trendline, it suggests that GBPUSD could reach 1.2772. Furthermore, an RSI close above 60 would strongly indicate the potential for GBPUSD to break through resistance zone between 1.2785 and 1.28.</p> <p>Conversely, a daily close below last week's low at 1.2575 would very likjely reverse the rebound narrative, potentially steering GBPUSD towards the 1.25 level.</p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/gbpusd-d-2603.png"/></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/authors/kim-cramer-larsson"><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/kim-cramer-larsson-400x400.png?mw=48" alt="Kim Cramer Larsson" /><div>Kim Cramer Larsson</div><div>Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>Technical analysis</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>EUR</span></div>Tue, 26 Mar 2024 11:09:55 Z2024-03-26T12:29:29Z{497EE447-5252-4724-9AED-0843CEEC119D}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/golds-behavior-points-to-sustained-strong-demand-26032024Ole Hansenproduct-commoditiescommodity-goldcommodity-silverInflationFederal ReserveMiningFocus InflationWeekly NewsletterGold’s behaviour points to sustained strong demand<div class="article-excerpt">Traders maintain a buy-on-dip approach to gold and recently also silver</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><div> <h3 paraid="525968663" paraeid="{3b8eadfd-9d4f-424c-8879-aef65fc50888}{38}" class="article-heading--3">Summary</h3> <div> <ul role="list"> <li data-leveltext="" data-font="Symbol" data-list-defn-props="{'335552541':1,'335559683':0,'335559684':-2,'335559685':720,'335559991':360,'469769226':'Symbol','469769242':[8226],'469777803':'left','469777804':'','469777815':'hybridMultilevel'}" aria-setsize="-1" data-aria-posinset="1" data-aria-level="1" role="listitem"> <p paraid="895313213" paraeid="{be4d48e0-bef4-4af9-8a6b-fa32d86ba117}{234}"><span data-contrast="none">Gold remains a buy-on-dip market, defying the normal negative impact of dollar and yield strength</span></p> </li> <li data-leveltext="" data-font="Symbol" data-list-defn-props="{'335552541':1,'335559683':0,'335559684':-2,'335559685':720,'335559991':360,'469769226':'Symbol','469769242':[8226],'469777803':'left','469777804':'','469777815':'hybridMultilevel'}" aria-setsize="-1" data-aria-posinset="1" data-aria-level="1" role="listitem"> <p paraid="895313213" paraeid="{be4d48e0-bef4-4af9-8a6b-fa32d86ba117}{234}"><span data-contrast="none"></span><span >Rallies that happen for no apparent reason - like today - should be respected</span></p> </li> <li data-leveltext="" data-font="Symbol" data-list-defn-props="{'335552541':1,'335559683':0,'335559684':-2,'335559685':720,'335559991':360,'469769226':'Symbol','469769242':[8226],'469777803':'left','469777804':'','469777815':'hybridMultilevel'}" aria-setsize="-1" data-aria-posinset="1" data-aria-level="1" role="listitem"> <p paraid="895313213" paraeid="{be4d48e0-bef4-4af9-8a6b-fa32d86ba117}{234}"><span ></span><span >Supported by industrial metals, silver heads for a strong month despite a failed breakout attempt</span><span >&nbsp;</span></p> </li> </ul> </div> <hr /> <p paraid="1127459217" paraeid="{b6846a18-fee3-48bb-bd58-5b8b58c874ad}{124}"><span data-contrast="auto">Gold&rsquo;s strong March rally culminated last week when the yellow metal briefly surged to a fresh record high at USD 2,221 per ounce, after the FOMC stuck to their three rate cut projections for this year, only to suffer another mild round of profit taking as the dollar continued higher. Overall, gold is heading for a March gain around 7% while silver has managed a near 10% rally, both after suffering mild setbacks during January and February when the dollar and US Treasury yields rose in response to traders adjusting inflation expectations higher, and rate cut projections lower.</span><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':276}"></span></p> </div> <p><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':276}"></span></p> <div> <div> <h3><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':276}"></span></h3> </div> </div> <p paraid="889907689" paraeid="{a0b0feea-5c34-44a4-9f98-dff5a581782d}{97}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':276}"></span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/26olh_gld1.png"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><span data-contrast="auto"><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-GL/page/product/FxSpot/8177?activeTab=overview&amp;cmpid=copy_link_platform_sharing"></a></span> <div> <div> <p paraid="2124117258" paraeid="{90d0dbe7-0662-4134-9b51-85ac01fddbd4}{82}"><span data-contrast="auto">Overall, gold continues to defy the normal negative impact of dollar and yield strength, both of which have risen this year, instead the metal has been supported by safe demand related to several geopolitical risks around the world, and not least continued strong underlying support from central banks and retail buyers of physical gold and jewellery especially from India and China. In addition, the early March break above USD 2,088 per ounce helped trigger a very aggressive buying response from technical and momentum driven hedge funds. During a two-week period to March 12, <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---25-march-2024-25032024">managed money</a>&nbsp;accounts bought 9.2 million ounces or 285 tons, an amount it took ETF investors more than seven months to sell. To put it into further perspective, central banks have in each of the past two years bought more than 1,000 tons, again highlighting the aggressive nature of the recent fund buying.<span data-contrast="auto"> </span></span><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':276}"></span></p> <h3 paraid="1033937941" paraeid="{40b2c94f-ca78-4b98-88a6-b55cc697fffa}{234}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':276}"></span></h3> </div> </div> <div> <p paraid="1425391661" paraeid="{7ae875e5-8831-4f3d-9c4d-e0eec23f9053}{112}"><span data-ccp-props="{'134233117':false,'134233118':false,'335559738':0,'335559739':0}"></span></p> </div> <span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':276}"></span></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/26olh_gld2.png"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><div> <p paraid="1037046065" paraeid="{b6846a18-fee3-48bb-bd58-5b8b58c874ad}{150}"><span data-contrast="auto">Do note that this group of traders tends to anticipate, accelerate, and amplify price changes that have been set in motion by fundamentals. Being followers of momentum, this strategy often sees this group of traders buy into strength and sell into weakness. They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged, and this makes them most reactive to changes in the fundamental or technical developments. In the short term, gold needs to hold key support levels in order to avoid a fresh round of profit taking, but so far the corrections seen have been shallow enough to prevent temporary price weakness through long liquidation.&nbsp;</span><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':276}"></span></p> <p paraid="1832215491" paraeid="{b6846a18-fee3-48bb-bd58-5b8b58c874ad}{156}"><span data-contrast="auto">After hitting a fresh record high last week, gold suffered another mild round of consolidation, however without challenging support at USD 2,146 followed by USD 2,132. Moves that happen for no apparent reasons are often ones that deserve some respect, and today&rsquo;s rally back towards USD 2,200 is one of them, happening without any notably support from other markets, highlighting a continued strong buying on dip mentality in the market. We maintain our 2024 forecast for gold to reach USD 2,300, and silver USD 28, with the technical picture pointing even higher towards USD 2,500.</span><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':276}"></span></p> </div></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/26olh_gld3.png"/></div><div class="rte--output">Source: Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><div> <p paraid="717639469" paraeid="{b6846a18-fee3-48bb-bd58-5b8b58c874ad}{177}"><span data-contrast="auto">Silver, meanwhile, has for a while been struggling relative to gold, not least because the white metal has not enjoyed the mentioned support from central banks. During the past month, however, the semi-precious metal which derives around half of its demand from industrial applications has received a boost from a recovering industrial metal sector, not least copper which recently reached an 11-month high, supported by a tightening mined supply outlook and Chinese smelters discussing production curbs.&nbsp;<br /> </span><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':276}"></span></p> </div> <div> <p paraid="694473117" paraeid="{b6846a18-fee3-48bb-bd58-5b8b58c874ad}{183}"><span data-contrast="auto">The improved outlook temporarily drove the gold-silver ratio down to a new year-to-date low around 85 ounces of silver to one ounce of gold, before reverting higher to the current 88.40. While gold has made several fresh record highs this past month, silver has yet to clear a key area of resistance between USD 25.75 and USD 26.15 per ounce, with the latest setback back towards support around USD 24.44 per ounce being driven by funds reducing bullish bets following the strongest three-week accumulation in almost five years</span></p> </div></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/26olh_gld4.png"/></div><div class="rte--output">Source: Saxo </div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><hr /> <strong></strong> <p><span><strong>Commodities related articles</strong><br /> <br /> 20 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/attacks-on-russian-refineries-lift-risk-premium-and-crude-prices-20032024"><strong><span>Attacks on Russian refineries lift risk premium and crude prices</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 19 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/how-to-add-copper-exposure-to-your-portfolio-19032024"><strong><span>How to add copper exposure to your portfolio</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 15 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/commodity-weekly---15-march-2024-15032024"><strong><span>Commodity weekly: Green shoots seen across key sectors</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 13 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/lack-of-catalyst-pushes-crude-into-tightening-range-13032024"><strong><span>Lack of catalyst pushes crude into tightening range</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 8 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/commodity-weekly---8-march-2024-08032024"><strong><span>Commodity weekly: Gold and silver steal the limelight</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 8 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---gold-optionality-08032024"><strong><span>Investing with options - Gold optionality</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 6 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/how-to-add-gold-exposure-to-your-portfolio-06032024"><strong><span>How to add gold exposure to your portfolio</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 6 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ShVBip5DmL0" target="_blank"><strong><span>Video: What happened to the gold prices?</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 1 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/commodity-weekly---1-march-2024-01032024"><strong><span>Grains dip, cocoa soars, gold and oil see rays of strength: February&rsquo;s commodity mix</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 29 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/podcast/podcast-29-feb-2024---commodities---why-speculative-interest-is-important-for-everyone-29022024"><strong><span>Podcast: Why speculative interest is important to understand</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 28 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/oil-price-stuck-in-neutral-despite-underlying-strength-28022024"><strong><span>Oil price stuck in neutral despite underlying strength</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 27 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/resilient-gold-market-defies-lower-rate-cut-predictions-27022024"><strong><span>Resilient gold market defies lower rate cut predictions</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 22 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/copper-short-squeeze-fades-ahead-of-key-resistance-22022024"><strong><span>Copper short squeeze fades ahead of key resistance</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 21 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/golds-resilience-despite-recent-etf-and-futures-selling-21022024"><strong><span>Gold's resilience despite recent futures and ETF selling</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 20 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/wti-crude-eyes-key-resistance-20022024"><strong><span>WTI crude eyes resistance amid improved signals</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 16 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/commodity-weekly---16-feb-2024-16022024"><strong><span>Commodity weekly: Grains tumble; Industrial metals eye China boost</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 15 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/us-rate-cut-delay-drives-gold-below-2000-15022024"><strong><span>US rate cut delay drives gold below $2000</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 13 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/cocoa-13022024"><strong><span>Video: What is driving Cocoa's sweet price</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 9 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/commodity-weekly---9-feb-2024-09022024"><strong><span>Commodity weekly: Refined product strength lifts crude</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 9 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/podcast/podcast-9-feb-2024---the-year-of-metals-09022024"><strong><span>Podcast: Year of the metals</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 7 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/crude-oil-supported-by-tightening-fuel-outlook-07022024"><strong><span>Crude oil supported by tightening fuel outlook</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 6 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/us-rate-cut-delay-drives-gold-below-2000-06022024"><strong><span>Gold and silver turn defensive on reduced Fed rate-cut optimism</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 2 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/commodity-weekly---2-feb-2024-02022024"><strong><span>Commodity weekly: Tight supply adds fuel to uranium and cocoa rally</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 1 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/commodities-january-performance-and-etf-flows-01022024"><strong><span>Commodities: January performance and ETF flows</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> <strong><br /> <strong><span>Previous "Commitment of Traders" articles</span></strong></strong></span></p> <p><strong><span>25 Mch 2024: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---25-march-2024-25032024">COT: Hedge funds zoom in on crude, copper and silver</a><br /> 18 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span></strong><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---18-march-2024-18032024"><strong><span>COT: Hedge funds buying expands from precious metals to copper and grains</span></strong></a><strong><span><br /> <strong><span>11 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span></strong></span></strong><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---11-march-2024-11032024"><strong><span>COT: Specs rush back into gold, elevated yen short in focus</span></strong></a><strong><span><br /> <strong><span>4 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span></strong></span></strong><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---4-march-2024-04032024"><strong><span>COT: Underinvested speculators fuel gold's latest surge</span></strong></a><strong><span><br /> <strong><span>26 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span></strong></span></strong><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---26-feb-2024-26022024"><strong><span>COT:&nbsp;Record corn short, cocoa surge no longer supported by speculators</span></strong></a><strong><span><br /> <strong><span>19 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span></strong></span></strong><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---19-feb-2024-19022024"><strong><span>COT: US inflation surprise drives broad selling of metals</span></strong></a><strong><span><br /> <strong><span>5 Feb 2024:</span></strong></span></strong><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---5-feb-2024-05022024"><strong><span>COT: Speculators chase false crude break; grain short extends further</span></strong></a></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen"><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/ole-hansen-400x400.png?mw=48" alt="Ole Hansen" /><div>Ole Hansen</div><div>Head of Commodity Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>Gold</span> <span>Silver</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <span>Mining</span> <span>Focus Inflation</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span></div>Tue, 26 Mar 2024 10:30:00 Z2024-03-27T10:53:45Z{A2C0A19C-43BB-42CD-8479-F763D0DC4A62}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/podcast/podcast-26-march-2024---thematic-26032024Saxo Market Callsaxostrats-podcastMacro-FXCurrencyproduct-macroproduct-forexforex-eurusdforex-usdjpyplace-lc/usplace-lc/cneditorial-nonfarm payrollsTheme: Central bank meeting impact on fixed income<div class="article-excerpt">In today's episode, Saxo's Head of Fixed Income Strategy, Althea Spinozzi, discusses how last week's many central bank meetings have impacted the fixed income markets with a special focus on the US, UK, Switzerland and Japan.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p class="v2-p-l"><strong><iframe title="Theme: Central bank meetings impact on fixed income" allowtransparency="true" height="150" width="100%" scrolling="no" data-name="pb-iframe-player" src="https://www.podbean.com/player-v2/?i=7ht3n-15b3e6e-pb&amp;from=pb6admin&amp;share=1&amp;download=1&amp;rtl=0&amp;fonts=Arial&amp;skin=60a0c8&amp;font-color=auto&amp;logo_link=episode_page&amp;btn-skin=ff6d00" loading="lazy"></iframe></strong></p> <p><span ><a href="https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/theme-central-bank-meetings-impact-on-fixed-income/">Listen to the full episode now</a> or follow&nbsp;Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app:</span></p> <p> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/saxo-bank-market-call/id1475783610?l=en" target="_blank"><img alt="Apple" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/images/logos/podcasts/apple.png" /></a> &nbsp; <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://open.spotify.com/show/0TQCo0xVyovEigewCbc9uo" target="_blank"><img alt="Spotify" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/images/logos/podcasts/spotify.png" /></a> &nbsp; <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://saxostrats.podbean.com/" target="_blank"><img alt="Podbean" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/images/logos/podcasts/podbean.png" /></a> &nbsp; &nbsp;</p> <div class="v2-mab50" > <div class="rte--output">If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at <em>marketcall@saxobank.com</em> and we'll look into it.</div> <div class="rte--output">&nbsp;</div> <div class="rte--output"><strong >Questions and comments, please!</strong></div> <div class="rte--output"><strong ></strong><span >We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podca</span><span >s</span><span >t team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at <em>marketcall@saxobank.com</em>.</span></div> </div></div></div><div><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/platform-social-sharing-images/smc_thumb_400x400.png?mw=48" alt="Saxo Market Call" /><div>Saxo Market Call</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/podcast">Podcast</a> <span>Macro FX</span> <span>Currency</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>United States</span> <span>China</span> <span>Nonfarm Payrolls</span></div>Tue, 26 Mar 2024 10:24:00 Z2024-03-26T11:27:26Z{2891747F-3DFC-43DB-8807-1DBB78D763FE}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/technical-analysis-gold-testing-key-resistance-26032024Kim Cramer Larssonproduct-commoditiesTechnical analysiscommodity-goldforex-xauusdXAUUSDTechnical Update - Gold testing key resistance. Will it break and stay above this time for further upside?<div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><span><strong>Gold (XAUUSD) is testing resistance at around 2,195, with potential for further gains if it sustains a close above this level&nbsp;</strong></span><br /> <br /> <p><strong>Gold (XAUUSD) </strong>is currently testing the resistance level at around 2,195. Despite surpassing this level last week, it did not manage a&nbsp; close above. <br /> A daily close above 2,195 could open the path to higher levels, specifically in the 2,265 to 2,295 range, as suggested by the directional arrows in the analysis.&nbsp;<br /> <br /> The blue vertical arrows is the previous trading range shifted higher.<br /> The black arrows are illustrating the Fibonacci Extension from 1,984 - red Fibo levels.&nbsp;<br /> The most recent correction after spiking to 2,223 followed by the collapse are the blue Fibonacci projections - right side of the&nbsp; chart.&nbsp;&nbsp;<br /> 1.764 projection of that correction at 2,273 is close to the 0.618 Extension at 2,276.&nbsp;&nbsp;<br /> <br /> <span >The RSI, a strentght indicator, is presently above its falling trendline. Should it close above this trendline, it would serve as a robust indicator that gold may continue its bullish trend.</span></p> <p>However, it's crucial to monitor the key support level at 2,146. A daily close below this threshold could invalidate the current bullish sceanrio, potentially signaling a reversal in gold's uptrend</p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/gold-d-2603.png"/></div><div class="rte--output">Source all charts and data: Saxo Group</div><br/><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/authors/kim-cramer-larsson"><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/kim-cramer-larsson-400x400.png?mw=48" alt="Kim Cramer Larsson" /><div>Kim Cramer Larsson</div><div>Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>Technical analysis</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span></div>Tue, 26 Mar 2024 09:05:48 Z2024-03-26T11:40:39Z{57BB72F3-3458-4386-9CCE-30ED2A85B34A}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/volatility-report---week-13---25-mar-24----29-mar-24-26032024Koen Hoorelbekeproduct-optionsproduct-equity optionsThought Startersproduct-contractoptionsproduct-optionsTrade journalsactive-traderVolatility report - week 13 - expected moves and trade setups (S&P500, Visa, Coinbase, Block) <div class="article-excerpt">This week's volatility report outlines key trade setups for S&P 500 Index Weekly's (SPXW), Visa (V), Coinbase Global (COIN) and Block (SQ), targeting respective market movements. Amidst varying market conditions, we offer strategies ranging from bullish to bearish.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p class="text--body">Options are complex, high-risk products and require knowledge, investment experience and, in many applications, high risk acceptance. We recommend that before you invest in options, you inform yourself well about the operation and risks.</p> <h2>Volatility report - week 13 (Mar 25 - Mar 29, '24)</h2> <p><span>Welcome to this week's Volatility Report, a guide for traders and investors seeking to navigate the dynamic world of stock market fluctuations. In this report, we list the expected movements and implied volatility rankings* of stocks with upcoming earnings announcements, as well as key indices and ETFs. In this edition we'll also have a look at some possible trade setups for a selection of ETF's and stocks in the list; S&amp;P 500 Index Weekly (SPXW), Visa (V), Coinbase Global Inc (COIN), Block Inc (SQ).</span></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span><strong>Important note</strong>: the strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it's crucial to make informed decisions.</span></p> <hr /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h2 class="article-heading--2" ><strong>Expected moves and volatility</strong></h2></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/00-koho/2024-03-25-00-expectedmoves.png"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><div data-message-author-role="assistant" data-message-id="8cf0bd10-64bb-4b20-95b6-28f5609d00a5"> <div> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span>Volatility and Expected Moves Analysis</span></h3> <p>Expected moves**, derived from at-the-money strike prices post-earnings**, indicate potential price volatility.<br /> <br /> In the table above you'll find the following data:</p> <ul> <li><span><strong>Volatility Comparison</strong>:</span> Implied volatility (IV) is currently contrasted against the 30-day historical figure to assess market expectations. A significant disparity often marks a prime scenario for premium selling.</li> <li><span ><strong>IV Rank Insights</strong>:</span><span > IV Rank situates the current IV within the past year's range. Values above 20% generally signal higher-than-average volatility, favoring premium selling, while lower values suggest caution for such strategies.</span></li> <li><strong>IV Rank 5D</strong>: IV Rank 5D situates the current IV within the past 5 day's range. Values of 100% indicate that the IV is at it's highest in the last 5 days. A higher value indicates the IV has been rising in the last few days, and might be worth considering to sell premium.</li> <li><strong>Highlighted Stocks</strong>: <p >The list contains 4 highlighted stocks which each have 3 trade setup ideas (bullish, neutral, bearish). These ideas are listed below.</p> </li> </ul> <hr /> <p>In this section of our volatility report, we're focusing on three credit and/or debit strategies that align with various market outlooks for our featured indices/etfs/stocks/.... For each underlying, we present a bullish, neutral, and bearish trade setup, designed to match your expectations for the underlying&rsquo;s future price action.</p> <p>Think of these strategies as starting points to shape your trading plans. Each setup is flexible &ndash; you can adjust the strike prices and the widths of the spreads (set by default at $5) to suit your trading needs. The credit spreads we've chosen are bold, with strike prices set near the current price of the stock to seek higher rewards at increased risk. Feel empowered to place these strikes further away or closer based on your own market analysis and confidence.</p> <p>Remember, these setups are foundational guides. It&rsquo;s essential to refine them to fit your individual trading style and outlook, ensuring they support your trading objectives and risk management preferences.</p> <span ></span> </div> </div></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/00-koho/2024-03-25-00-charts.png"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2" ><strong><span>S&amp;P500 Index Weekly's (SPXW)</span></strong></h2></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/00-koho/2024-03-25-01-spxw.png"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><div> <div>Here are the trade setups for the S&amp;P 500 Index Weekly (SPXW) for the week of March 25 to March 28, 2024, based on the above screenshot:</div> <br /> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Bullish Trade Setup (Put Credit Spread):</h4> <ul> <li>Selling a 5210 put and buying a 5205 put, both expiring on 28-Mar-2024.</li> <li>Premium received: 130.00 USD.</li> <li>Maximum profit: 130.00 USD, which is the premium received if SPXW stays above 5210 at expiration.</li> <li>Maximum risk: 370.00 USD (the difference between the strike prices minus the premium received).</li> <li>Breakeven: 5208.70 USD (sold put strike minus the premium received).</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Neutral Trade Setup (Short Iron Condor):</h4> <ul> <li>Selling a 5270 call and a 5180 put, and buying a 5275 call and a 5175 put, all expiring on 28-Mar-2024.</li> <li>Net premium received: 160.00 USD.</li> <li>Maximum profit: 160.00 USD, achieved if SPXW closes between the short call and short put strikes at expiration.</li> <li>Maximum risk: 340.00 USD (the difference between the strikes of the widest spread minus the net premium received).</li> <li>Upper breakeven: 5271.60 USD (short call strike plus net premium received).</li> <li>Lower breakeven:&nbsp; 5178.40&nbsp;USD (short put strike minus net premium received).</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Bearish Trade Setup (Put Debit Spread):</h4> <ul> <li>Selling a 5215 put and buying a 5220 put, expiring on 28-Mar-2024.</li> <li>Premium received: 190.00 USD.</li> <li>Maximum profit: 190.00 USD, realized if SPXW stays below 5220 at expiration.</li> <li>Maximum risk: 310.00 USD (the difference between the strike prices minus the premium received).</li> <li>Breakeven: 5218.10 USD (bought put strike minus premium paid).</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">For the S&amp;P 500 Index Weekly:</h4> <ul> <li>The bullish Put Credit Spread is designed for those expecting the index to maintain or increase its current level.</li> <li>The neutral Short Iron Condor is suitable for traders betting on the index trading within a specific range, capitalizing on the decay of option premiums.</li> <li>The bearish Put Debit Spread targets a view that the index will not rise beyond a particular level, or for those seeking a hedge against a potential downturn.</li> </ul> </div></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2" ><strong><span>Visa Inc. (V)</span></strong></h2></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/00-koho/2024-03-25-02-v.png"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><div> <div>Trade setups for Visa Inc. (V) showed in the above screenshot:</div> <br /> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Bullish Trade Setup (Put Credit Spread):</h4> <ul> <li>Selling a 277.5 put and buying a 272.5 put, both expiring on 19-Apr-2024.</li> <li>Premium received: 125.00 USD.</li> <li>Maximum profit: 125.00 USD, which is the premium received if Visa stays above 277.5 at expiration.</li> <li>Maximum risk: 375.00 USD (the difference between the strike prices minus the premium received).</li> <li>Breakeven: 276.25 USD (sold put strike minus the premium received).</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Neutral Trade Setup (Short Iron Condor):</h4> <ul> <li>Selling a 290 call and a 275 put, and buying a 295 call and a 272.5 put, all expiring on 19-Apr-2024.</li> <li>Net premium received: 151.00 USD.</li> <li>Maximum profit: 151.00 USD, achieved if Visa closes between the short call and short put strikes at expiration.</li> <li>Maximum risk: 349.00 USD (the difference between the strikes of the widest spread minus the net premium received).</li> <li>Upper breakeven: 291.51 USD (short call strike plus net premium received).</li> <li>Lower breakeven: 273.49 USD (short put strike minus net premium received).</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Bearish Trade Setup (Put Debit Spread):</h4> <ul> <li>Buying a 275 put and selling a 270 put, expiring on 19-Apr-2024.</li> <li>Premium received: 94.00 USD.</li> <li>Maximum profit: 94.00 USD, realized if Visa stays below 270 at expiration.</li> <li>Maximum risk: 406.00 USD (the difference between the strike prices minus the premium received).</li> <li>Breakeven: 274.06 USD (sold call strike minus premium paid).</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">For Visa Inc.:</h4> <ul> <li>The bullish Put Credit Spread is designed for those expecting the stock to not drop below a certain price level.</li> <li>The neutral Short Iron Condor is ideal for scenarios where the stock is expected to remain within a certain range, allowing traders to benefit from time decay and limited price movement.</li> <li>The bearish Put Debit Spread is suitable for those who are pessimistic about the stock's prospects or who wish to hedge against a potential decline.</li> </ul> </div></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2" ><strong><span>Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN)</span></strong></h2></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/00-koho/2024-03-25-03-coin.png"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><div> <div>Trade setups for Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) based on the above screenshot:</div> <br /> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Bullish Trade Setup (Put Credit Spread):</h4> <ul> <li>Selling a 262.5 put and buying a 257.5 put, both expiring on 19-Apr-2024.</li> <li>Premium received: 215.00 USD.</li> <li>Maximum profit: 215.00 USD, which is the premium received if COIN stays above 262.5 at expiration.</li> <li>Maximum risk: 285.00 USD (the difference between the strike prices minus the premium received).</li> <li>Breakeven: 260.35 USD (sold put strike minus the premium received).</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Neutral Trade Setup (Short Iron Condor):</h4> <ul> <li>Selling a 335 call and a 260 put, and buying a 340 call and a 255 put, all expiring on 19-Apr-2024.</li> <li>Net premium received: 310.00 USD.</li> <li>Maximum profit: 310.00 USD, achieved if COIN closes between the short call and short put strikes at expiration.</li> <li>Maximum risk: 190.00 USD (the difference between the strikes of the widest spread minus the net premium received).</li> <li>Upper breakeven: 338.10 USD (short call strike plus net premium received).</li> <li>Lower breakeven: 256.90 USD (short put strike minus net premium received).</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Bearish Trade Setup (Call Credit Spread):</h4> <ul> <li>Selling a 300 call and buying a 305 call, expiring on 19-Apr-2024.</li> <li>Premium received: 150.00 USD.</li> <li>Maximum profit: 150.00 USD, realized if COIN stays below 305 at expiration.</li> <li>Maximum risk: 350.00 USD (the difference between the strike prices minus the premium received).</li> <li>Breakeven: 301.50 USD (sold call strike plus premium received).</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4">For Coinbase Global Inc.:</h4> <br /> <ul> <li>The bullish Put Credit Spread is suitable for traders who believe the stock will not fall below a specific price level.</li> <li>The neutral Short Iron Condor is for those anticipating the stock to trade within a specified range, profiting from the decay of the options' premiums.</li> <li>The bearish Call Credit Spread is tailored for traders with a negative outlook on the stock, expecting it to stay under a certain level.</li> </ul> </div></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><hr /> <h2 class="article-heading--2" ><strong><span>Block, Inc. (SQ)</span></strong></h2></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/00-koho/2024-03-25-04-sq.png"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><div> <div>Trade setups for Block Inc. (SQ) based on the above screenshot:</div> <br /> <h4>Bullish Trade Setup (Call Debit Spread):</h4> <ul> <li>Selling a 90 put and buying a 85 put, both expiring on 19-Apr-2024.</li> <li>Premium received: 160.00 USD.</li> <li>Maximum profit: 160.00 USD, which is the premium received if SQ stays above 90 at expiration.</li> <li>Maximum risk: 160.00 USD (the premium paid).</li> <li>Breakeven: 86.60 USD (bought put strike plus the premium paid).</li> </ul> <h4>Neutral Trade Setup (Short Iron Condor):</h4> <ul> <li>Selling a 90 call and a 75 put, and buying a 95 call and a 70 put, all expiring on 19-Apr-2024.</li> <li>Net premium received: 145.00 USD.</li> <li>Maximum profit: 145.00 USD, achieved if SQ closes between the short call and short put strikes at expiration.</li> <li>Maximum risk: 355.00 USD (the difference between the strikes of the widest spread minus the net premium received).</li> <li>Upper breakeven: 91.45 USD (short call strike plus net premium received).</li> <li>Lower breakeven: 73.55 USD (short put strike minus net premium received).</li> </ul> <h4>Bearish Trade Setup (Put Debit Spread):</h4> <ul> <li>Selling a 80 put and buying a 75 put, expiring on 19-Apr-2024.</li> <li>Premium paid: 145.00 USD.</li> <li>Maximum profit: 355.00 USD, realized if SQ stays below 75 at expiration.</li> <li>Maximum risk: 145.00 USD (premium paid).</li> <li>Breakeven: 78.55 USD (bought put strike minus premium paid).</li> </ul> <h4>For Block, Inc.:</h4> <ul> <li>The bullish Call Debit Spread is suitable for traders who believe the stock will not fall below a specific price level.</li> <li>The neutral Short Iron Condor is for those anticipating the stock to trade within a specified range, profiting from the decay of the options' premiums.</li> <li>The bearish Put Debit Spread is tailored for traders with a negative outlook on the stock, expecting it to stay under a certain level.</li> </ul> </div></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><span></span><hr /> <span><strong>Note about spread management</strong>: as we present our trade setups, it's crucial to address the management of spreads that approach expiration in the money. Whether your position is fully or partially in the money, standard practice recommends closing the trade before expiration. This action is taken to prevent the risk of assignment, which can lead to unintended stock positions and additional capital requirements. Proactive closure of these positions, especially in the final day leading to expiry, allows for better control over the outcome and helps avoid the complexities and potential costs associated with exercise and assignment.<br /> &nbsp;</span><br /> <hr /> <p class="v2-p-s">* Understanding these metrics is important for anyone involved in volatility-based trading strategies. The 'Expected Move' is an invaluable tool that provides a forecast of how much a stock's price might swing, positively or negatively, around its earnings announcement. This insight is essential for options traders, allowing them to gauge the potential risk and reward of their positions. Read more about it here:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/understanding-and-calculating-the-expected-move-of-a-stock-etf-index-07072023">Understanding and calculating the expected move of a stock etf index</a></p> <p class="v2-p-s">Moreover, the 'Implied Volatility Rank' (IVR) offers a snapshot of current volatility expectations in comparison to historical volatility over the last year. This ranking helps in identifying whether the market's current expectations are unusually high or low.<br /> <br /> In addition to the Expected Move and Implied Volatility Rank, it&rsquo;s also crucial to understand the concepts of &lsquo;Implied Volatility&rsquo; and &lsquo;Historical Volatility&rsquo;. Implied Volatility (IV) is a measure of the market&rsquo;s expectation of future volatility, derived from the prices of options on the stock. On the other hand, Historical Volatility (HV) measures the actual volatility of the stock in the past.</p> <p class="v2-p-s">The relationship between these two types of volatility can serve as a valuable indicator for options traders. When IV is significantly higher than HV, it suggests that the market is expecting a larger price swing in the future, which could make options more expensive. Conversely, when IV is lower than HV, it could indicate that options are relatively cheap. Some traders use this IV-to-HV ratio as a signal for when to buy or sell options premium, adding another layer of sophistication to their trading strategies.</p> <hr /> <p class="v2-p-s">**&nbsp;<span>A crucial application of the expected move in options trading is evident in strategies such as iron condors and strangles, particularly when these are implemented through short selling. In these strategies, the expected move serves as a pivotal benchmark for setting the boundaries of the trade. For instance, in the case of a short iron condor, traders typically position the short legs of the condor just outside the expected move range. This strategic placement enhances the probability of the stock price remaining within the range, thereby increasing the chances of the trade's success. Similarly, when setting up a short strangle, traders often choose strike prices that lie beyond the expected move. This ensures that the stock has to make a significantly larger move than the market anticipates to challenge the position, thus leveraging the expected move to mitigate risk and optimize the success rate. Utilizing the expected move in this manner allows traders to align their strategies with market expectations, fine-tuning their approach to volatility and price movements.</span><br /> <br /> <span>In this report, the calculation of the expected move for each stock and index is based on a refined approach,&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/understanding-and-calculating-the-expected-move-of-a-stock-etf-index-07072023">building upon the concepts outlined in our previous article</a><span>. Traditionally, the expected move can be estimated by calculating the price of an at-the-money (ATM) straddle for the expiration date immediately following the event of interest. However, in this analysis, we've adopted a variation to enhance the accuracy of our predictions.</span><br /> <br /> <span>Our method involves a blend of 60% of the price of the ATM straddle and 40% of the price of a strangle that is one strike away from the ATM position. This hybrid approach allows us to closely mirror the expected move as indicated by the implied volatility (IV), offering a more nuanced and precise estimation. By utilizing this simplified yet effective method, we are able to provide an expected move calculation that not only resonates with the underlying market sentiments but also equips traders with a practical tool for their volatility-based strategies.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><hr /> <h5 class="article-heading--5"><span>For continuous insights and updates on market/options strategies, interact with me/follow&nbsp;</span><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.threads.net/@koen.hoorelbeke" target="_blank">my social media account on Threads</a><span>.</span><br /> <br /> </h5> <hr /> <h4>Previous "Volatility reports":&nbsp;</h4> <ul> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/volatility-report---week-12---18-mar-24----22-mar-24-19032024">Volatility report - week 12 - 18 mar 24 -- 22 mar 24</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/volatility-report---week-11---11-mar-24----15-mar-24-12032024">Volatility report - week 11 - 11 mar 24 -- 15 mar 24</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/volatility-report---week-10---4-mar-24----8-mar-24-05032024">Volatility report - week 10 - 4 mar 24 -- 8 mar 24</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/volatility-report---week-9---26-feb-24----1-mar-24-27022024">Volatility report - week 9 - 26 feb 24 -- 1 mar 24</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/volatility-report---week-8---19-feb-24----23-feb-24-20022024">Volatility report - week 8 - 19 feb 24 -- 23 feb 24</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/volatility-report---week-7---12-feb-24----16-feb-24-13022024">Volatility report - week 7 - 12 feb 24 -- 16 feb 24</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/volatility-report---week-6---5-feb-24----9-feb-24-06022024">Volatility report - week 6 - 5 feb 24 -- 9 feb 24</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/volatility-report---week-5---29-jan-24----2-feb-24-30012024">Volatility report - week 5 - 29 jan 24 -- 2 feb 24</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/volatility-report---week-4---22-jan-24----26-jan-24-22012024">Volatility report - week 4 - 22 jan 24 -- 26 jan 24</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/volatility-report---week-3---15-jan-24----19-jan-24-15012024">Volatility report - week 3 - 15 jan 24 -- 19 jan 24</a></li> </ul> <h4>Previous episodes of the "Saxo Options Talk"&nbsp;podcast</h4> <ul> <li>20 Mar 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---episode-12---defined-vs-undefined-risk-strategies-20032024">Options Talk - Episode 12 - Defined vs undefined risk strategies</a></li> <li>13 Mar 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---episode-11---stretched-synthetic-stock-using-options-13032024">Options Talk - Episode 11 - Stretched Synthetic Stock using Options</a></li> <li>6 Mar 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---episode-10---synthetic-stock-06032024">Options Talk - Episode 10 - Synthetic Stock</a></li> <li>28 Feb 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---episode-09---volatility-28022024">Options Talk - Episode 09 - Volatility</a></li> <li>21 Feb 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---episode-08---rolling-21022024">Options Talk - Episode 08 - Rolling</a></li> <li>14 Feb 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---episode-07---put-spreads-14022024">Options Talk - Episode 07 - Put Spreads</a></li> <li>7 Feb 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---episode-06---delta-07022024">Options Talk - Episode 06 - Delta</a></li> <li>31 Jan 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---episode-05---short-call-spreads-31012024">Options Talk - Episode 05 - Short Call Spreads</a></li> <li>24 Jan 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---episode-04---long-call-spreads-24012024">Options Talk - Episode 04 - Long Call Spreads</a></li> <li>17 Jan 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---episode-03---long-calls-17012024">Options Talk - Episode 03 - Long Calls</a></li> <li>10 Jan 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---introducing--options-talk-by-koen-and-peter---your-weekly-podcast-on-options-trading-10012024">Options Talk - Introducing -Options Talk by Koen and Peter- -Your Weekly Podcast on Options Trading</a></li> </ul> <h4>Previous "Investing with options" articles:&nbsp;</h4> <ul> <li>8 Mar 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---gold-optionality-08032024">Investing with options - Gold optionality</a></li> <li>19 Feb 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---securing-your-tech-stock-gains-with-simple-hedging-strategies---2of2-19022024">Investing with options - Securing your tech stock gains with simple hedging strategies - 2of2</a></li> <li>19 Feb 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---securing-your-tech-stock-gains-with-simple-hedging-strategies---1of2-19022024">Investing with options - Securing your tech stock gains with simple hedging strategies - 1of2</a></li> <li>2 Feb 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---microsoft---buying-stock-or-options---a-comparison-02022024">Investing with options - Microsoft - buying stock or options - a comparison</a></li> <li>25 Jan 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-fx-options---hedging-usdjpy-currency-risk-25012024">Investing with FX options - Hedging USDJPY currency risk</a></li> <li>8 Jan 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-fx-options---hedging-currency-risk-08012024">Investing with FX options - Hedging currency risk</a></li> <li>30 Nov 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---gld---gold-etf-30112023">Investing with options - striking gold (GLD)</a></li> <li>23 Nov 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---hedging-the-nasdaq-100-23112023">Investing with options - hedging the Nasdaq 100</a></li> <li>17 Nov 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---nvidia---pre-earnings-17112023">Investing with options - Nvidia - pre-earnings</a></li> <li>10 Nov 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---adyen---post-investor-day-10112023">Investing with options - AdYen - post investor day</a></li> <li>31 Oct 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---novo-nordisk-earnings-31102023">Investing with options - Novo Nordisk earnings</a></li> <li>31 Oct 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---apple-earnings-31102023">Investing with options - Apple earnings</a></li> <li>24 Oct 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---amazon-earnings-24102023">Investing with options - Amazon earnings</a></li> <li>24 Oct 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---meta-platforms-earnings-24102023">Investing with options - Meta Platforms earnings</a></li> <li>23 Oct 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---alphabet-earnings-23102023">Investing with options - Alphabet earnings</a></li> <li>20 Oct 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---microsoft-earnings-20102023">Investing with options - Microsoft earnings</a></li> <li>18 Oct 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---tesla-earnings-18102023">Investing with options - Tesla earnings</a></li> <li>17 Oct 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---long-bonds---tlt-17102023">Investing with options - long bonds - TLT</a></li> </ul> <h4>Previous "What are your options" articles:&nbsp;</h4> <ul> <li>23 Feb 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/what-are-your-fx-options---nzdusd-and-nzdjpy-23022024">What are your FX options - NZDUSD and NZDJPY</a></li> <li>12 Feb 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/what-are-your-fx-options---usdjpy---after-148-breakout-12022024">What are your FX options - USDJPY - after 148 breakout</a></li> <li>24 Jan 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/what-are-your-options---tesla-q4-earnings-24012024">What are your options - Tesla Q4 Earnings</a></li> <li>18 Jan 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/what-are-your-fx-options---eurusd-elevated-volatility-18012024">What are your FX options - EURUSD elevated volatility</a></li> <li>12 Jan 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/what-are-your-options---coinbase-after-btc-etf-approval-12012024">What are your options - Coinbase after BTC ETF approval</a></li> <li>21 Nov 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/what-are-your-options---nvidia-earnings-21112023">What are your options - Nvidia earnings</a></li> <li>08 Nov 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/what-are-your-options---disney-earnings-08112023">What are your options - Disney earnings</a></li> <li>26 Oct 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/what-are-your-options---nasdaq-selling-premium-26102023">What are your options - Nasdaq Selling Premium</a></li> <li>29 Aug 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/what-are-your-options---salesforce-earnings-29082023">What are your options - Salesforce earnings</a></li> <li>25 Aug 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/what-are-your-options---the-qs---nasdaq-etf-25082023">What are your options - the Qs - Nasdaq etf</a></li> <li>23 Aug 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/what-are-your-options---nvidia---earnings---market-reactions-23082023">What are your options - Nvidia - earnings - market reactions</a></li> <li>21 Aug 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/what-are-your-options---swing-trading-semi-conductors---stocks-vs-options-21082023">What are your options - swing trading semi-conductors - stocks vs options</a></li> <li>18 Aug 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/what-are-your-options---using-tlt-as-an-inverse-proxy-for-the-10-year-yield-18082023">What are your options - using TLT as an inverse proxy for the 10 year yield</a></li> </ul> <p><span >Related articles:</span></p> <ul> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/from-zero-to-hero---buying-options-05092023">From zero to hero - buying options</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/from-zero-to-hero---selling-options-12092023">From zero to hero - selling options</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/from-zero-to-hero---selling-options-12092023"></a><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/from-zero-to-hero---option-strategies-06112023">From zero to hero - option strategies</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/from-zero-to-hero---options-lexicon-20112023">From zero to hero - options lexicon</a><br /> <br /> </li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/why-options-strategies-belong-in-every-traders-toolbox-05072023">Why options strategies belong in every traders toolbox</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/understanding-and-calculating-the-expected-move-of-a-stock-etf-index-07072023">Understanding and calculating the expected move of a stock etf index<br /> </a>&nbsp;</li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/understanding-delta---a-key-guide-for-investors-and-traders---part-1-26072023">Understanding Delta - a key guide for Investors and Traders - part 1</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/understanding-delta---a-key-guide-for-investors-and-traders---part-2-07082023">Understanding Delta - a key guide for Investors and Traders - part 2<br /> &nbsp;</a></li> <li><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/trading-0dtes---get-your-feet-wet---without-drowning---part-1-04092023">Trading 0DTEs - get your feet wet - without drowning - part 1</a></span></li> <li><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/trading-0dtes---get-your-feet-wet---without-drowning---part-2-07092023">Trading 0DTEs - get your feet wet - without drowning - part 2</a></span></li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"></h4></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><div><hr /> <div><em>Options are complex, high-risk products and require knowledge, investment experience and, in many applications, high risk acceptance. We recommend that before you invest in options, you inform yourself well about the operation and risks. In Saxo Bank's Terms of Use you will find more information on this in the Important Information Options, Futures, Margin and Deficit Procedure. You can also consult the Essential Information Document of the option you want to invest in on Saxo Bank's website.<br /> </em></div> </div></div></div><div><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/koen-hoorelbeke-400x400-v2.jpg?mw=48" alt="Koen Hoorelbeke" /><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/equity-options">Equity Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/contract-options">Contract Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <span>Trade journals</span> <span>Actief traden</span></div>Tue, 26 Mar 2024 07:30:00 Z2024-03-27T04:43:21Z{E50B46B2-A971-42D0-99E4-B1C4E8832C33}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/macro/global-market-quick-take-europe-26-march-2024-26032024Saxo Strategy Teamproduct-macroproduct-equitiesproduct-commoditiesproduct-bondsproduct-forexThought StartersAdvanced ordersplace-lc/cnplace-lr/eurmacro-employmentplace-lc/usplace-lc/gbsubject-is/pol.euforex-xauusdcurrency-usdforex-eurusdXAGUSDforex-usdcadforex-usdjpysector-gics-1010sector-TechnologyS P 500 indexQuick TakeWeekly NewsletterGlobal Market Quick Take: Europe – 26 March 2024<div class="article-excerpt">Equities are seeing risk-on sentiment this morning after strong session in Chinese equities. The USD is giving back some of its gains and crude oil is trading steady.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Key points:</span></strong></h3> <ul > <li><strong><span>Equities:</span></strong><span> Asian markets are up with tech stocks leading the gains. Boeing CEO resigned. Consumer confidence data will be released today and could impact equities trading.</span></li> <li><strong><span>FX:</span></strong><span> Dollar weakened yesterday with the exception of Yen. USDCNH reversed gains after China intervened in the market.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Commodities:</span></strong><span> Oil prices remained steady after attacks on Russian oil refineries. Gold found support and halted the decline. Cocoa prices surged due to supply tightness.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Fixed Income:</span></strong><span> Treasury yields rose after the auction met with subdued demand.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Economic data</span></strong><span>: US March Consumer Confidence is a key release to watch</span></li> </ul> <p><em><span>The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.</span></em></p> <p><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong><span>Hang Seng futures are up 1.4% in today&rsquo;s session lifted by technology stocks (Tencent and Xiaomi) and sports retailer ANTA Sports reporting strong 2023 results rising 3%. US and European equity futures are pointing higher today with S&amp;P 500 futures up 0.3%. Boeing&rsquo;s CEO stepped down yesterday as the crisis as the world&rsquo;s largest airplane manufacturer deepens opening a new turnaround chapter in the company&rsquo;s history. Key macro release to impact equities in today&rsquo;s trading is US March Conference Board Consumer Confidence (14:00 GMT) as improvement in consumer confidence could lower expectations for rate cuts this year even further.</span></p> <p><strong><span>FX</span></strong><span>: </span><span>The dollar gave back some of last week&rsquo;s strong gains yesterday, with the yen a notable exception, trading near top of range above 151, with traders looking to challenge Japan&rsquo;s top currency officials, warning about &ldquo;clearly seeing speculative movements in FX markets&rdquo;.&nbsp; Meanwhile, USDCNH reversed nearly all its gain from last Friday, plunging to finish Monday at around 7.2530 after the People&rsquo;s Bank of China fixed the USDCNY rate at 7.0996 and sold USDCNY heavily in the onshore market.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Commodities:</span></strong><span> </span><span>WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil front month futures trade steady after both climbing 1.6% on Monday as Ukrainian drones hit another Russian oil refinery, adding to the list of casualties of Russian refining infrastructure, which according to Goldmans has knocked out an estimated 900,000 barrels per day of refining capacity, supporting the prices of gasoline and not least diesel. Gold has found a fresh bid ahead of key support below $2150, thereby reducing the risk of long liquidation from hedge funds, key drivers behind the rally this past month. Cocoa&rsquo;s parabolic rise extended to $9,650 per tons on Monday with extreme supply tightness driven the cost of cocoa beans above copper.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong><span> </span><span>Government bonds on both sides of the Atlantic slid yesterday as markets prepared to welcome ample corporate and sovereign bond supply in primary markets. At the same time, markets trimmed ECB and the Federal Reserve rate cut expectations for 2024. Traders bet on a 90bp rate cut in Europe versus 94bp last week and 77bp in the US versus 80bp on Friday. The 2-year US Treasury auction was strong, with primary dealers taking 13.4% of the issuance, the lowest since June last year and one of the lowest on record. However, the auction tailed by 0.5bp as investors demanded a higher return after yields dropped roughly 14bp last week. To weigh on bond markets were also Bostic's comments, saying that he sees only one rate cut this year. At the same time, Fed Cook calls for a cautious approach to rate cuts, and Goolsbee sticks with three rate cuts but needs to see more progress on inflation. Today, the focus shifts to the 5-year auction, which we expect to receive solid demand due to its appealing risk-reward proposition.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Macro:</span></strong><span> </span><span>T</span><span>he US released a mixed bag of data, with new home sales sliding to 662k, below 677k expected in February while the January data was modestly revised up to 664k from previously reported 661k. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index came in at 0.05, stronger than the -0.34 expected and last month&rsquo;s -0.54 (revised down from -0.3) but the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index weakened to -14.4 from -11.3, below the -10.0 expected.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Technical analysis highlights: Main event:</span></strong><strong><span> </span></strong><strong><span>EURUSD bounced from strong support at 1.08, like move to 1.09. GBPUSD strong support at 1.26, likely bounce to 1.27.&nbsp;</span></strong><strong >Dow Jones</strong><span > and reversal pattern, <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> Top and reversal pattern cancelled. Eyeing 5,300. But uptrend stretched. <strong>Nasdaq </strong>100. Top and reversal still intact. Needs to close above 18,417 to cancel. <strong>EuroStoxx50</strong> uptrend key support at 4,976.&nbsp;</span><strong >EURUSD </strong><span >bounce from strong support, like move to 1.09. <strong>USDJPY </strong>struggling to break key resistance at 151.95. <strong>EURJPY </strong>uptrend intact, support at 163.69. USDCHF still room to 0.9050 resistance. <strong>USDCAD </strong>range bound 1.3440-1.3620. <strong>Gold </strong>uptrend intact, key support at 2,146. <strong>US 10-year Treasury yield</strong> likely range bound 4.20-4.35 strong resist.&nbsp;</span><strong >Volatility:</strong><span > Yesterday, the VIX saw a minor increase to $13.19 (+0.13 | +1.00%), while volatility measures like the VVIX and SKEW remained relatively stable, indicating a calm market environment. VIX futures dipped to 14.30 (-0.10 | -0.70%), while futures for the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 showed modest gains, up to 5289.80 (+11.25 | +0.21%) and 18569.25 (+55.75 | +0.30%). Monday's trading activity was most vibrant in options for TSLA, NVDA, AAPL, AMD, MU, AMZN, MARA, INTC, COIN, and PLTR.</span></p> <p><strong><span>In the news: </span></strong><span>Biggest Challenge Facing New Boeing CEO Is Winning Over Airlines (</span><span><a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-25/next-boeing-ceo-must-win-over-airlines-that-led-calhoun-revolt?utm_source=website&amp;utm_medium=share&amp;utm_campaign=copy__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!tx277cN9qfL-a-mbrfAI5QeU2Fso-pjSqj5F6NOxIlaU289yL9jXpUGKhU3Y88hIUbl-KiwMOygTUM0Llx4y9A$"><span>Bloomberg</span></a></span><span>), Japan's corporate service inflation steady in February (</span><span><a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.reuters.com/markets/asia/japans-corporate-service-inflation-steady-february-2024-03-26/__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!tx277cN9qfL-a-mbrfAI5QeU2Fso-pjSqj5F6NOxIlaU289yL9jXpUGKhU3Y88hIUbl-KiwMOygTUM0GwqsDtA$"><span>Reuters</span></a></span><span>), New chairman is named for US House select committee on China (</span><span><a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/sc.mp/ie7t9?utm_source=copy-link&amp;utm_campaign=3256695&amp;utm_medium=share_widget__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!tx277cN9qfL-a-mbrfAI5QeU2Fso-pjSqj5F6NOxIlaU289yL9jXpUGKhU3Y88hIUbl-KiwMOygTUM3JnXHL-g$"><span>SCMP</span></a></span><span>), CATL to Keep Expanding in the Face of Slower EV Growth, Chairman Says (</span><span><a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-25/catl-chairman-will-keep-expanding-in-the-face-of-slower-ev-growth?utm_source=website&amp;utm_medium=share&amp;utm_campaign=copy__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!tx277cN9qfL-a-mbrfAI5QeU2Fso-pjSqj5F6NOxIlaU289yL9jXpUGKhU3Y88hIUbl-KiwMOygTUM0MY_KGQg$"><span>Bloomberg</span></a></span><span>), Europe's clean power sources on a record roll in early 2024: Maguire (</span><span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/europes-clean-power-sources-record-roll-early-2024-maguire-2024-03-26/"><span>Reuters</span></a></span><span>), Cocoa Is More Expensive Than Copper as It Tops $9,000 (</span><span><a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cocoa-more-expensive-copper-tops-111128755.html?guccounter=1&amp;guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&amp;guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGvQf7RTwAE2VdlWb9g4PH59VqvqCabv95TNpiHFqZu-aB_hwN9_adO3S_b-7HCOglcUyWsK1fq8tgoWGu1s-huld18O1NKpowvUjUDFISeB3ktMo_tu12SsS4Xr3U_bkVNRc1pkaDot0N1ECTU6DtsfiLhGG5Rp9-UMlWASFGkT">Yahoo</a></span><span>)</span></p> <p><strong><span>Macro events (all times are GMT): </span></strong><span>US Durable Goods Orders (Feb) exp 1% vs &ndash;6.2% prior (1130), US Consumer Confidence (Mar) exp 107 vs 106.7 prior (1300), Richmond Fed Mfg Index (Mar) exp &ndash;5 vs &ndash;5 prior (1300), API&rsquo;s Weekly Crude and Fuel stock Report (1930)</span></p> <p><strong><span>Earnings events: </span></strong><span>Today&rsquo;s key earnings event is ANTA Sports, China&rsquo;s equivalent of Nike, which could provide insights into consumer demand in China.</span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>Today:</span></strong><span> BYD, China Telecom, Nongfu Spring, CITIC Securities, ANTA Sports, Flutter Entertainment, McCormick</span></li> <li><strong><span>Wednesday:</span></strong><span> ICBC, China Life Insurance, Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, Cintas, Paychex, Carnival, H&amp;M</span></li> <li><strong><span>Thursday:</span></strong><span> Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, CITIC, Walgreens Boots Alliance</span></li> </ul> <p><span>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo&rsquo;s </span><span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar"><span>calendar</span></a></span><span> </span></p></div></div><div><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/saxo-be-invested.png?mw=48" alt="Saxo Strategy Team" /><div>Saxo Strategy Team</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>China</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span>United States</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>USDCAD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy (Sector)</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span></div>Tue, 26 Mar 2024 07:25:00 Z2024-03-26T07:47:47Z{78DF367B-611E-44CF-AA61-ED3ADA04891A}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/macro/global-market-quick-take-asia--march-26-2024-26032024Redmond Wongproduct-macroproduct-commoditiesproduct-forexproduct-macroMacro-FXmacro-central banksmacro-gdpmacro-indicesplace-lr/aspAPAC Market DigestFeatured Market Update APACAPACplace-lc/gbplace-lc/usplace-lc/auplace-lc/cncommodity-crude oilOilsector-Oil and Gasplace-lr/eurcurrency-usdforex-eurusdforex-usdjpyforex-audusdcurrency-gbpforex-gbpusdcommodity-goldFederal Reserveproduct-bondssubject-is/fin.stpbondproduct-equitiesforex-cadjpyforex-gbpjpyforex-chfjpyforex-audjpycurrency-jpyforex-eurjpyECBplace-lc/jpInflationcurrency-sekforex-eursekforex-noksekEURSEKforex-gbpcadforex-gbpchfforex-gbpaudforex-eurgbpEURGBPGBPUSDGBPJPYplace-lc/saforex-audnzdcurrency-audAUDUSDAUDJPYcurrency-nokforex-eurnokforex-usdnokEURNOKforex-xauusdXAUUSDXAGUSDXAGUSDDow Jones IndexGlobal Market Quick Take: Asia – March 26, 2024<div class="article-excerpt">USDJPY remained above 151, prompting concerns voiced by Masto Kanda, Japan's top currency official, regarding speculative movements in FX markets. WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil climbed 1.6% to $81.95 and $86.75 respectively as Ukrainian drones hit another Russian oil refinery.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong><span></span></strong><em >The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.&nbsp;</em></p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/26_qt.jpg"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong><span>Equities</span></strong><span>: The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both pulled back 0.3%, retreating for the second day in a row. Bucking the decline, Super Micro Computer and Micron Technology surged 7.2% and 6.3% respectively. Take-Two Interactive was the worst-performing stock among the S&amp;P 500, falling 4.2% after a reported delay in the latest instalment of a blockbuster game.</span></p> <p><span>Likewise, the Nikkei 225 pulled back from its record high, down 1.2% to close at 40,414. In China and Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index and CSI300 fluctuated between small gains and losses, finishing the session 0.2% and 0.5% lower despite China&rsquo;s central bank fixed the renminbi basket on the strong side, and better-than-expected earnings from China Hongqiao, seeing its share price surge 13.4%. BYD, China Telecom, and Anta Sports are reporting results today.</span></p> <p><strong><span>FX:&nbsp;</span></strong><span>As USDJPY hovered above 151, Masto Kanda, Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs, who is Japan&rsquo;s top currency official, warned about &ldquo;clearly seeing speculative movements in FX markets&rdquo; on Monday. While Kanda&rsquo;s remarks have increased the probability of the Minister of Finance&rsquo;s intervention to draw a line to stop the weakening of the Yen, market reactions were muted, with USDJPY trading at around 151,40 in Tokyo Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, USDCNH reversed nearly all its gain from last Friday, plunging to finish Monday at around 7.2530 after the People&rsquo;s Bank of China fixed the USDCNY rate at 7.0996 and sold USDCNY heavily in the onshore market. </span></p> <p><strong><span>Commodities:&nbsp;</span></strong><span> WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil front month futures both climbed 1.6% to $81.95 and $86.75 respectively as Ukrainian drones hit another Russian oil refinery, adding to the list of casualties of Russian refining infrastructure, estimated to amount to 7% of Russian capacity that has been knocked out by drone attacks. A decline in oil drilling rig count in the US also added to traders&rsquo; concerns about supply. </span></p> <p><strong><span>Fixed income: </span></strong><span>Treasuries pulled back from their post-FOMC rallies, with yields climbing across the yield curve. The $66 billion 2-year Treasury note auction met with subdue demand. The benchmark 10-year yield finished the session 5bps higher at 4.25%.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Macro:</span></strong></p> <ul > <li><span>The US released a mixed bag of data, with new home sales sliding to</span><span> 662k, below 677k expected in February while the January data was modestly revised up to 664k from previously reported 661k. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index came in at 0.05, stronger than the -0.34 expected and last month&rsquo;s -0.54 (revised down from -0.3) but the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity&nbsp; Index weakened to -14.4 from -11.3, below the -10.0 expected.</span></li> </ul> <p><strong><span>Macro events:</span></strong><span>&nbsp;US Durable Goods Orders (Feb), US Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Mar), Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (Apr), Singapore Industrial Production (Feb)</span></p> <p><strong><span>Earnings:</span></strong><span>&nbsp;BYD, China Telecom, Nongfu Spring, CITIC Securities, PICC Property &amp; Casualty, ANTA Sports, People&rsquo;s Insurance, SF Holding</span></p> <p><strong><span>In the news:</span></strong></p> <ul> <li><span>Japan Inc. to return record $165bn to shareholders as profits rise (Nikkei Asia)</span></li> <li><span>Trump Can Post Smaller $175 Million Bond in Civil Fraud Case (<a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.wsj.com/us-news/law/donald-trump-new-york-fraud-bond-due-05f590e4?st=np4wlb7i24bzczo&amp;reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!tD9dOLeF2isTKRrjI4lVXZiMPjVT0Mp0WJwe7GC1UTE5CxcZLRKPqvPpkhnFny_dpOWdMnny4yFR-iiVz0PySg$">WSJ</a>)</span></li> <li><span>Biggest Challenge Facing New Boeing CEO Is Winning Over Airlines (<a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-25/next-boeing-ceo-must-win-over-airlines-that-led-calhoun-revolt?utm_source=website&amp;utm_medium=share&amp;utm_campaign=copy__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!tD9dOLeF2isTKRrjI4lVXZiMPjVT0Mp0WJwe7GC1UTE5CxcZLRKPqvPpkhnFny_dpOWdMnny4yFR-igsSBrbGQ$">Bloomberg</a>)</span></li> <li><span>Japan's corporate service inflation steady in February (<a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.reuters.com/markets/asia/japans-corporate-service-inflation-steady-february-2024-03-26/__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!tD9dOLeF2isTKRrjI4lVXZiMPjVT0Mp0WJwe7GC1UTE5CxcZLRKPqvPpkhnFny_dpOWdMnny4yFR-ih5U3Y7Vg$">Reuters</a>)</span></li> <li><span>New chairman is named for US House select committee on China (<a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/sc.mp/ie7t9?utm_source=copy-link&amp;utm_campaign=3256695&amp;utm_medium=share_widget__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!tD9dOLeF2isTKRrjI4lVXZiMPjVT0Mp0WJwe7GC1UTE5CxcZLRKPqvPpkhnFny_dpOWdMnny4yFR-igo8IebYw$">SCMP</a>)</span></li> <li><span>CATL to Keep Expanding in the Face of Slower EV Growth, Chairman Says (<a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-25/catl-chairman-will-keep-expanding-in-the-face-of-slower-ev-growth?utm_source=website&amp;utm_medium=share&amp;utm_campaign=copy__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!tD9dOLeF2isTKRrjI4lVXZiMPjVT0Mp0WJwe7GC1UTE5CxcZLRKPqvPpkhnFny_dpOWdMnny4yFR-igb4iFs5w$">Bloomberg</a>)</span></li> <li><span>Mumbai becomes Asia's billionaire capital, topped by Mukesh Ambani (<a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Mumbai-becomes-Asia-s-billionaire-capital-topped-by-Mukesh-Ambani__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!tD9dOLeF2isTKRrjI4lVXZiMPjVT0Mp0WJwe7GC1UTE5CxcZLRKPqvPpkhnFny_dpOWdMnny4yFR-igmdCJMsg$">Nikkei Asia</a>)</span></li> </ul> <p><span>&nbsp;</span></p> <p><span>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo&rsquo;s </span><span><a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/calendar__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!s9h6Lxrg5HnW-eaWk8tithFc-W0n--QMbcd4gCbGcsfsr8F4qW3WsLXo8BbCgDcDp3oD1lF8AZcy_oIvBlBzWQ$"><span>calendar.</span></a></span></p> <p><span>For a global look at markets &ndash; go to </span><span><a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration?activetab=latest__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!s9h6Lxrg5HnW-eaWk8tithFc-W0n--QMbcd4gCbGcsfsr8F4qW3WsLXo8BbCgDcDp3oD1lF8AZcy_oJJtW5lSw$"><span>Inspiration</span></a></span></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/authors/redmond-wong"><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/redmond-wong-400x400.png?mw=48" alt="Redmond Wong" /><div>Redmond Wong</div><div>Chief China Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Macro FX</span> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>United States</span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span></div>Tue, 26 Mar 2024 00:30:00 Z2024-03-26T00:52:22Z{23188CEA-31A0-41C5-A898-A943C08C4362}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/technical-analysis-nike-does-not-do-it-anymore-25032024Kim Cramer Larssonproduct-equitiesTechnical analysiscompany-nikeNike IncUS500Technical Update - Nike doesn't do it anymore. Further sell-off likely<div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><ul> <li><strong><span>The bearish breakout from its already falling trading channel suggests Nike's stock may face further downward pressure. Short-term downwards potential to around 88, medium-term to 82</span></strong></li> </ul> <p><strong>Nike Inc. (NKE)</strong> saw an acceleration in its downtrend on Friday, marked by a 7% gap down resulting in a&nbsp;<span>bearish breakout from the falling channel pattern it had been trading within since December, illustrating an intensification of the downtrend.</span>&nbsp;<br /> The Friday close below the upper boundary of the body gap signifies that the stock may face continued selling pressure.</p> <p>The RSI indicator is reflecting negative sentiment, which aligns with and supports the bearish price action observed. Currently, there appears to be a lack of immediate support levels for NKE, with the next support zone located at the September 2023 trough, between approximately 89.63 and 88.66.</p> <div><span >Medium-to longer term - weekly chart: <br /> </span> <p><span>A daily close below the September trough at 88.66&nbsp; could lead to further selling down to around 82.22 levels not seen since Ocotober 2022<br /> </span><span >Weekly RSI is currently below 40 threshold supporting the bearish picture</span></p> <p><span>To demolish this bearish picture a close above 97.63 is needed. But to establish an uptrend a close above 102.50 is necessary</span></p> </div></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/nke-d-2503.png"/></div><div class="rte--output">Source all charts and data: Saxo Group</div><br/><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/nke-w-2503.png"/></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/authors/kim-cramer-larsson"><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/kim-cramer-larsson-400x400.png?mw=48" alt="Kim Cramer Larsson" /><div>Kim Cramer Larsson</div><div>Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Technical analysis</span> <span>Nike</span> <span>Nike Inc.</span> <span>US500</span></div>Mon, 25 Mar 2024 11:52:42 Z2024-03-25T13:15:48Z{790C97D0-90CC-4C07-8593-D16F17F9E8B7}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/technical-analysis-eurostoxx50-eu50-dax-ger40-uptrend-intact-25032024Kim Cramer Larssonproduct-equitiesTechnical analysisindexcfd-stoxx50e.iindex-stoxx50.iEuro Stoxx 50DAXindex-DAX IndexGER40Technical Update - EuroStoxx50/EU50 and DAX/GER40 uptrends very stretched. When will a correction hit?<div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><span></span> <ul> <li><span><strong>EuroStoxx50 testing gap just above key support at 4,976 </strong></span></li> <li><strong><span>DAX has upside potential to 18,427, yet a break below 17,900 could reverse the picture</span></strong></li> </ul> <p><span >The </span><strong >EuroStoxx50/EU50 CFD</strong><span > gapped higher last week. A small gap but a gap nevertheless</span></p> <span>This gap is currently being tested but remains unfilled. Closing below 5,007 would seal this gap. If the gap is closed, the next level of support to watch is at 4,976, with a breach here potentially leading to a sell-off towards the 4,886 support level.<br /> <br /> The EuroStoxx50/EU50 CFD is maintaining an uptrend within a rising channel pattern, though signs of fragility and exhaustion are evident. The index's ability to sustain this trend hinges on not closing below a key support level at 4,976 short-term</span></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/stoxx50-d-2503.png"/></div><div class="rte--output">Source all charts and data: Saxo Group</div><br/><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/eu50-d-2503.png"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><span>The <strong>DAX </strong>index is currently exhibiting a rising channel-like pattern, suggesting a continued uptrend with a potential target at 18,427, which corresponds to the 200% (2.00) projection of the correction observed in the third and fourth quarters of 2023 -&nbsp;see weekly chart<br /> <br /> However, if the DAX breaks out bearish from this channel and closes below 17,900 on a daily basis, it could initiate a downward movement towards a strong support level at around 17,620.&nbsp;<br /> <br /> While the RSI (Relative Strength Index) is showing divergence, suggesting that the trend might be running out of steam, a definitive top and reversal pattern has not yet formed. This divergence warrants attention as it could precede a trend reversal or consolidation, but without a clear reversal pattern, the immediate trend direction remains upward</span></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/dax-d-2503.png"/></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/dax-d-2503.png"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong><span>GER40 cfd.</span></strong><span> A break below 17,862 next support at around 17,612 and 17,155-17,000</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/ger40-d-2503.png"/></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/authors/kim-cramer-larsson"><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/kim-cramer-larsson-400x400.png?mw=48" alt="Kim Cramer Larsson" /><div>Kim Cramer Larsson</div><div>Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Technical analysis</span> <span>EU50.I</span> <span>STOXX50.I</span> <span>Euro Stoxx 50</span> <span>DAX</span> <span>DAX Index</span> <span>GER40</span></div>Mon, 25 Mar 2024 10:34:24 Z2024-03-25T11:54:14Z{09E4D76B-C03A-4A75-A94E-A9A8558917F3}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---25-march-2024-25032024Ole Hansenproduct-commoditiesCOT Commoditiescommodity-crude oilcommodity-natural gascommodity-goldcommodity-silvercommodity-coppercommodity-platinumcommodity-corncommodity-sugarcommodity-coffeecommodity-gasolinecommodity-palladiumcommodity-wheatcommodity-cocoacommodity-cottoncommodity-cattlesector-gics-1010product-forexCOT FXforex-eurusdforex-usdjpyforex-audusdforex-usdcadforex-usdchfforex-gbpusdforex-nzdusdsubject-is/fin.stpbondBonds Inspirationproduct-bondsproduct-forexEn hurtig tankeCOT: Hedge funds zoom in on crude, copper, and silver<div class="article-excerpt">Our weekly Commitment of Traders update highlights future positions and changes made by hedge funds and other speculators across commodities and forex during the week to last Tuesday, 19 March.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3></h3> <h3 class="article-heading--3">Summary</h3> <ul> <li class="text--body">Notable hedge funds buying of crude, copper and silver left all three vulnerable to end of week dollar strength</li> <li class="text--body">Gold buying paused ahead of FOMC with attention instead turning to silver</li> <li class="text--body">Grain buying extended to a second week; funds sold into continued cocoa surge</li> <li class="text--body">A seven-fold increase in the dollar long against seven IMM forex futures</li> </ul> <hr /> <h3 class="article-heading--3">Forex:&nbsp;</h3> <p><span>In the forex market, broad dollar strength continued ahead of Wednesday&rsquo;s FOMC meeting resulting in a seven-fold increase in the gross dollar long against eight IMM forex futures to USD 7.9 billion. Except the Mexican peso which saw its net long jump to a four-year high supported by a rising carry, the bulk of the dollar buying was driven by a 35% reduction in the EUR long to an October 2022 low at 48.3k contacts. In addition, Bank of Japan&rsquo;s dovish hike helped trigger fresh short selling of the yen, the AUD net short reached a record high at 107.5k contracts (USD 7 bn equivalent) while the CHF short reached a 28-month high at 20.5k contracts. </span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/25olh_cot1.png"/></div><div class="rte--output">Non-commercial long, short and net positions across key IMM currency futures</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3">Commodities</h3> <p><span>The Bloomberg Commodity index, which tracks a basket of 24 major futures markets split between energy (30.1%), metals (34.2%) and agriculture (35.7%), traded higher for a third week, but while recent gains had been driven by broad sector strength, the gains seen during the latest reporting week were concentrated in energy and a few other commodities, most notably silver, copper, cocoa and coffee. <br /> <br /> On an individual level, three commodities; crude oil, silver and copper stood out with buying of the three amounting to a nominal value of USD 13.4 billion, on an individual level lifting the net long of all three to one-year highs. With such an inflow of fresh longs these three markets were left vulnerable to the end of week correction that was triggered by a sharply stronger dollar, not least against the Chinese renminbi. </span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/25olh_cot2.png"/></div><div class="rte--output">Managed money long, short and net positions in the week to March 19.</div><br/><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/25olh_cot3.png"/></div><div class="rte--output">Energy: Strong week for the sector led by 7% gains in crude oil, lifting the Brent and WTI combined net long to a five-month high at 509k contracts. Russian fuel supply concerns lifted the gas oil (diesel) long by 42% while higher natural gas reduced the short by 20%</div><br/><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/25olh_cot4.png"/></div><div class="rte--output">Metals: Funds turned small net sellers of gold following a two-week rush that saw the net long jump 91.5k contracts to a two-year high. Instead, silver buying picked up pace, driving the net long to an April 2022 high. Copper’s temporary upside break lifted the net long to a 14-month high, leaving it exposed to end of week profit taking as the dollar strengthened </div><br/><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/25olh_cot5a.png"/></div><div class="rte--output">Grains: short covering extended to a second week led by the soy complex and corn </div><br/><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/25olh_cot6.png"/></div><div class="rte--output">Softs: funds continued to sell into surging cocoa prices, reducing the net long to a one-year low, and with coffee and cocoa also sold the sector suffered an overall 5% reduction in the combined net long.</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3>What is the Commitments of Traders report?</h3> <p>The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class.</p> <p><span>Commodities</span>: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers,&nbsp;Managed Money&nbsp;and other<br /> <span>Financials</span>: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional;&nbsp;Leveraged Funds&nbsp;and other<br /> <span>Forex</span>: A broad breakdown between commercial and&nbsp;non-commercial&nbsp;(speculators)</p> <p>The main reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of speculators, such as hedge funds and trend-following CTA's are:</p> <ul> <li>They are likely to have&nbsp;tight stops&nbsp;and&nbsp;no underlying exposure&nbsp;that is being hedged</li> <li>This makes them&nbsp;most reactive to changes&nbsp;in fundamental or technical price developments</li> <li>It provides views about&nbsp;major trends&nbsp;but also helps to decipher when a&nbsp;reversal&nbsp;is looming</li> </ul> <p>Do note that&nbsp;this group tends to&nbsp;<span>anticipate</span>,<span>&nbsp;accelerate</span>, and&nbsp;<span>amplify</span>&nbsp;price changes that have been set in motion by&nbsp;fundamentals. Being followers of momentum, this strategy often sees this group of traders buy into strength and sell into weakness, meaning that they are often found holding the biggest long near the peak of a cycle or the biggest short position ahead of a through in the market.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><hr /> <p><span>20 Mch 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/attacks-on-russian-refineries-lift-risk-premium-and-crude-prices-20032024">Attacks on Russian refineries lift risk premium and crude prices</a><br /> 19 Mch 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/how-to-add-copper-exposure-to-your-portfolio-19032024">How to add copper exposure to your portfolio</a><br /> 15 Mch 2024: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/commodity-weekly---15-march-2024-15032024">Commodity weekly: Green shoots seen across key sectors</a><br /> 13 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/lack-of-catalyst-pushes-crude-into-tightening-range-13032024"><strong><span>Lack of catalyst pushes crude into tightening range</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 8 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/commodity-weekly---8-march-2024-08032024"><strong><span>Commodity weekly: Gold and silver steal the limelight</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 8 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---gold-optionality-08032024"><strong><span>Investing with options - Gold optionality</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 6 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/how-to-add-gold-exposure-to-your-portfolio-06032024"><strong><span>How to add gold exposure to your portfolio</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 6 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ShVBip5DmL0" target="_blank"><strong><span>Video: What happened to the gold prices?</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 1 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/commodity-weekly---1-march-2024-01032024"><strong><span>Grains dip, cocoa soars, gold and oil see rays of strength: February&rsquo;s commodity mix</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 29 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/podcast/podcast-29-feb-2024---commodities---why-speculative-interest-is-important-for-everyone-29022024"><strong><span>Podcast: Why speculative interest is important to understand</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 28 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/oil-price-stuck-in-neutral-despite-underlying-strength-28022024"><strong><span>Oil price stuck in neutral despite underlying strength</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 27 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/resilient-gold-market-defies-lower-rate-cut-predictions-27022024"><strong><span>Resilient gold market defies lower rate cut predictions</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 22 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/copper-short-squeeze-fades-ahead-of-key-resistance-22022024"><strong><span>Copper short squeeze fades ahead of key resistance</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 21 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/golds-resilience-despite-recent-etf-and-futures-selling-21022024"><strong><span>Gold's resilience despite recent futures and ETF selling</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 20 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/wti-crude-eyes-key-resistance-20022024"><strong><span>WTI crude eyes resistance amid improved signals</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 16 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/commodity-weekly---16-feb-2024-16022024"><strong><span>Commodity weekly: Grains tumble; Industrial metals eye China boost</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 15 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/us-rate-cut-delay-drives-gold-below-2000-15022024"><strong><span>US rate cut delay drives gold below $2000</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 13 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/cocoa-13022024"><strong><span>Video: What is driving Cocoa's sweet price</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 9 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/commodity-weekly---9-feb-2024-09022024"><strong><span>Commodity weekly: Refined product strength lifts crude</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 9 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/podcast/podcast-9-feb-2024---the-year-of-metals-09022024"><strong><span>Podcast: Year of the metals</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 7 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/crude-oil-supported-by-tightening-fuel-outlook-07022024"><strong><span>Crude oil supported by tightening fuel outlook</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 6 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/us-rate-cut-delay-drives-gold-below-2000-06022024"><strong><span>Gold and silver turn defensive on reduced Fed rate-cut optimism</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 2 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/commodity-weekly---2-feb-2024-02022024"><strong><span>Commodity weekly: Tight supply adds fuel to uranium and cocoa rally</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 1 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/commodities-january-performance-and-etf-flows-01022024"><strong><span>Commodities: January performance and ETF flows</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> <strong><br /> <strong><span>Previous "Commitment of Traders" articles</span></strong></strong></span></p> <p><strong><span>18 Mch 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---18-march-2024-18032024">COT: Hedge funds buying expands from precious metals to copper and grains</a><br /> 11 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span></strong><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---11-march-2024-11032024"><strong><span>COT: Specs rush back into gold, elevated yen short in focus</span></strong></a><strong><span><br /> <strong><span>4 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span></strong></span></strong><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---4-march-2024-04032024"><strong><span>COT: Underinvested speculators fuel gold's latest surge</span></strong></a><strong><span><br /> <strong><span>26 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span></strong></span></strong><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---26-feb-2024-26022024"><strong><span>COT:&nbsp;Record corn short, cocoa surge no longer supported by speculators</span></strong></a><strong><span><br /> <strong><span>19 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span></strong></span></strong><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---19-feb-2024-19022024"><strong><span>COT: US inflation surprise drives broad selling of metals</span></strong></a><strong><span><br /> <strong><span>5 Feb 2024:</span></strong></span></strong><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---5-feb-2024-05022024"><strong><span>COT: Speculators chase false crude break; grain short extends further</span></strong></a><strong><span><br /> <br /> </span></strong></p> <p><strong><span></span></strong><span><br /> </span></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen"><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/ole-hansen-400x400.png?mw=48" alt="Ole Hansen" /><div>Ole Hansen</div><div>Head of Commodity Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>COT Commodities</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Natural Gas</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Silver</span> <span>Copper</span> <span>Platinum</span> <span>Corn</span> <span>Sugar</span> <span>Coffee</span> <span>Gasoline</span> <span>Palladium</span> <span>Wheat</span> <span>Cocoa</span> <span>Cotton</span> <span>Cattle</span> <span>Energy (Sector)</span> <span>Forex</span> <span>COT FX</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>USDCAD</span> <span>USDCHF</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>NZDUSD</span> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>Bonds nspiration</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>En hurtig tanke</span></div>Mon, 25 Mar 2024 10:30:00 Z2024-03-27T10:54:01Z{2200F303-AD73-4FB5-AECE-A2619C7798A1}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/macro/highlights-from-the-past-week-25th-march-25032024Saxoproduct-macroHighlighted articlesproduct-equitiesproduct-forex optionsproduct-commoditiesproduct-bondsMust reads from the past week: Swiss Franc, FOMC optimism, Reddit IPO<div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span>Last week the Swiss National Bank surprised by cutting its key policy rate by 25bps after 9 months of Swiss inflation below target. On the topic of cuts, investor appetite was rekindled after the FED policy meeting fuelled hopes of three rate cuts this year and a soft-landing for the US economy. Finally, social media giant &ldquo;Reddit&rdquo; priced its IPO at $34 and ended its market debut trading up 48% at $50.44.</span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2">Must reads&hellip;</h2> <p ><span ></span><span ></span><span >Opportunities to trade Swiss Franc as it breaks technical levels<br /> - </span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/article/c444acae-e7f2-4fb4-8dd1-26b02526395c" >Swiss Franc weakens after surprise rate cut</a></p> <p ><span >Key points to be aware of following the latest FOMC meeting<br /> - </span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/article/5eb5494d-6c18-4ace-97c1-3b56a638824b" >FOMC bond takeaway</a></p> <p ><span >The latest IPO gives investors access to one of the world&rsquo;s most influential social media platforms<br /> - </span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/article/cb314859-6241-44da-9814-ff976b3c9de2" >You can now trade Reddit shares</a></p> <p><span ></span></p> <h2 class="article-heading--2">The week ahead&hellip;</h2> <p><span>The key events for this week are the policy rate decisions from a number of major central Banks; Bank of Japan (Tuesday), US Federal Reserve (Wednesday), Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England (Thursday). There are also key Chinese technology and consumer earnings from Xiaomi, Tencent, PDD, and Meituan. For developed markets the big earnings day is on Thursday with earnings releases from Nike, FedEx, Lululemon, and Accenture. Tech focus will be turning to the Nvidia GTC conference this week where new flagship chips are expected to be launched.</span></p></div></div><div><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/saxo-be-invested.png?mw=48" alt="Saxo" /><div>Saxo</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/forex-options">Forex Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a></div>Mon, 25 Mar 2024 09:04:00 Z2024-03-25T09:08:23Z{CC7F7CCF-A797-4987-9AC8-AB67C1D36D90}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/podcast/podcast-25-march-2024---macro-and-fx-25032024Saxo Market Callsaxostrats-podcastMacro-FXCurrencyproduct-macroproduct-forexforex-eurusdforex-usdjpyplace-lc/usplace-lc/cneditorial-nonfarm payrollsMacro & FX: Swiss central bank surprises; PCE and China<div class="article-excerpt">In today's episode, Macro and FX is in focus with Charu Chanana as our expert with Søren Otto as the host. The two touch upon last week's central banks meetings and look ahead to Friday's PCE figure. Finally they discuss overall FX views and also the development in Chinese currency.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p class="v2-p-l"><strong><iframe title="Macro &amp; FX: Swiss central bank surprises; PCE and China" allowtransparency="true" height="150" width="100%" scrolling="no" data-name="pb-iframe-player" src="https://www.podbean.com/player-v2/?i=usqu8-15b3e5d-pb&amp;from=pb6admin&amp;share=1&amp;download=1&amp;rtl=0&amp;fonts=Arial&amp;skin=60a0c8&amp;font-color=auto&amp;logo_link=episode_page&amp;btn-skin=ff6d00" loading="lazy"></iframe></strong></p> <p><span ><a href="https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/macro-fx/?token=64d84aa2ce1854d3d8b73cd87fc1708c">Listen to the full episode now</a> or follow&nbsp;Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app:</span></p> <p> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/saxo-bank-market-call/id1475783610?l=en" target="_blank"><img alt="Apple" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/images/logos/podcasts/apple.png" /></a> &nbsp; <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://open.spotify.com/show/0TQCo0xVyovEigewCbc9uo" target="_blank"><img alt="Spotify" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/images/logos/podcasts/spotify.png" /></a> &nbsp; <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://saxostrats.podbean.com/" target="_blank"><img alt="Podbean" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/images/logos/podcasts/podbean.png" /></a> &nbsp; &nbsp;</p> <div class="v2-mab50" > <div class="rte--output">If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at <em>marketcall@saxobank.com</em> and we'll look into it.</div> <div class="rte--output">&nbsp;</div> <div class="rte--output"><strong >Questions and comments, please!</strong></div> <div class="rte--output"><strong ></strong><span >We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podca</span><span >s</span><span >t team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at <em>marketcall@saxobank.com</em>.</span></div> </div></div></div><div><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/platform-social-sharing-images/smc_thumb_400x400.png?mw=48" alt="Saxo Market Call" /><div>Saxo Market Call</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/podcast">Podcast</a> <span>Macro FX</span> <span>Currency</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>United States</span> <span>China</span> <span>Nonfarm Payrolls</span></div>Mon, 25 Mar 2024 09:00:00 Z2024-03-25T08:50:32Z{D6F77FB9-B4B2-4E39-8660-0DE86CEB0C44}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/macro/global-market-quick-take-europe-25-march-2024-25032024Saxo Strategy Teamproduct-macroproduct-equitiesproduct-commoditiesproduct-bondsproduct-forexThought StartersAdvanced ordersplace-lc/cnplace-lr/eurmacro-employmentplace-lc/usplace-lc/gbsubject-is/pol.euforex-xauusdcurrency-usdforex-eurusdXAGUSDforex-usdcadforex-usdjpysector-gics-1010sector-TechnologyS P 500 indexQuick TakeWeekly NewsletterGlobal Market Quick Take: Europe – 25 March 2024<div class="article-excerpt">EU and US equity futures point lower with sentiment souring after the Atlanta Fed chief called for just one rate cut this year, while the Japanese yen on intervention watch drives the Nikkei lower. Inflation data from around the world on watch this week. </div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><span>Key points:</span></h3> <ul> <li><strong><span>Markets sentiment souring: </span></strong><span>US and EU equity futures trade lower after the Atlanta Fed chief called for just one rate cut this year.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Commodities consolidates after last week&rsquo;s strong dollar correction:</span></strong><span> Oil and gold pressured by dollar strength but finding support amid raised global tensions</span></li> <li><strong><span>Equity movers:</span></strong><span> The Nikkei trades down more than 1% after officials warned against speculative moves in the currency markets. Thin earnings calendar today </span></li> <li><strong><span>Technicals watch:</span></strong><span> Key reversal patterns in major indices, support and resistance levels to watch in currency pairs.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Economic data watch</span></strong><span>: Inflation data from Australia, France, Italy and Spain as well as the Fed&rsquo;s preferred core PCE on Friday</span></li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong> <br /> </strong></h3> <p><em><span>The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.</span></em></p> <p><strong >Equities: </strong><span >Global equities are starting the week on a weak footing with Nikkei 225 futures down 1.5% and both US and European equity futures pointing slightly lower in early trading hours. Today&rsquo;s key events are limited to Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity figures for March and later this week on Wednesday earnings from Carnival and H&amp;M can impact consumer related stocks. Last week&rsquo;s shocking Gucci sales decline and weak outlook from Nike continue to paint a picture of a global consumer that is still healing after the inflation shook last year. Bill Gross, the former &lsquo;bond king&rsquo;, is out saying that US equities show signs of &lsquo;excessive exuberance&rsquo; as enormous US fiscal deficits and AI enthusiasm are driving equity markets to new highs.</span><span ></span></p> <p><strong><span>FX</span></strong><span>: The dollar strength extended further on Friday, with the DXY index back above 104.30 to its highest levels in over a month. The Chinese yuan saw notable volatility after a weak PBOC fix on Friday but a strong fix today. USDCNH rose sharply to touch 7.28 before reversing back to 7.24 today. AUDUSD dropped 40pips as well on Friday, slipping from 0.6570 to 0.6520 but the recovery today has been underwhelming. EURUSD also testing the 1.08 handle with the </span><span><a href="https://social.saxo/crrra71?uuid=CEAjAhD">SNB surprise rate cut</a></span><span> prompting wagers to increase bets for ECB easing for June. EURCHF eased from highs of 0.9788 to settle around the 0.97 handle although USDCHF settled just below the 0.90 handle. GBPUSD back below 1.2650 after BoE governor Bailey said rate cuts are in play at future BoE meetings amid signs that tighter policy quelled the risk of a wage-price spiral. For more on our FX views, read our </span><span><a href="https://social.saxo/9rlu51p?uuid=dZUO31g">Weekly FX article here</a></span><span>.</span><span ></span></p> <p><strong><span>Commodities:</span></strong><span> Last week&rsquo;s USD strength impacted negatively especially those commodities that had seen a strong buildup in speculative longs ahead of FOMC, especially crude oil, silver and copper. Brent nevertheless holds above key support as Russia attacks ads to global tensions while Ukraine&rsquo;s successful attacks on Russian oil refineries are adding risks to global energy supplies. Gold is holding above $2146 support but for now, back on the defensive amid dollar strength and hawkish comments on policy rate trajectory from Fed&rsquo;s Bostic moving his expectations to expect only one rate cut this year.</span><span ></span></p> <p><strong><span>Fixed income:&nbsp;</span></strong><span >Markets are consolidating bets of a June rate cut in Europe, as ECB policymakers see a persistent easing in Euro-area inflation, and some do not exclude a rate cut even by April. Yields fell across European yield curves, with the 10-year Bund yields dropping by 12bps to 2.32% on the week. The rally in Europe leaked to US Treasuries, with 10-year yields ending the week down by roughly 10bps and 2-year yields by 14bps. This week, the focus is on February&rsquo;s US PCE core deflator coming out on Good Friday when markets are closed. The core PCE is expected to remain unchanged from January at 2.8%. Before Friday, several Federal Reserve members, including Bostic, Goolsbee, and Waller, will speak on the back of last week&rsquo;s FOMC meeting. The US Treasury will sell 2-, 5-, and 7-year notes today, tomorrow and on Wednesday, and the focus is on bidding metrics and signs of duration extension. We continue to see scope to extend duration up to five years, we favor the 10-year tenor for its risk and reward proposition, while we remain cautious the ultra-long part of the yield curve as explained </span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/bonds/fomc-bond-takeaway-beware-of-ultra-long-duration-21032024" >here</a><span >.</span></p> <p><strong >Macro:</strong><span > Atlanta Fed Chief Bostic said on Friday that he now only expects one interest rate cut this year, adding that the reduction will likely happen later in the year than he previously expected. He said he had less confidence about the trajectory of inflation than in December, and focus this week turns to the Fed&rsquo;s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE, due out on Friday. This fits well with the latest economic data points from the US suggesting robust growth around 2% in the US economy.</span></p> <p><strong >Technical analysis highlights: S&amp;P 500 </strong><span >cancelled top and reversal pattern now looking at 5,300, but uptrend very stretched.<strong> Nasdaq 100 t</strong>op and reversal pattern still intact, cancelled if closing above 18,417. <strong>EURUSD </strong>testing key support at 1.08, likely rebounding, if closing below next support at 1.0756. <strong>GBPUSD </strong>closed bang on key support at 1.26, expect rebound. <strong>USDJPY </strong>strong resist at 151.95, a break above bullish move to 153.50. <strong>USDCHF </strong>bullish potential to 0.9050. <strong>AUDJPY</strong> top and reversal pattern indicating pair could drop to 98.20.<strong> Gold </strong>hit by selling after reaching 1.618 projection at 2,225, key support at 2.146. <strong>US 10-year T-yields </strong>likely range bound 4.15-4.35</span><strong ></strong></p> <p><strong><span>Volatility:</span></strong><span> On Friday, the VIX slightly increased to $13.06 (+0.14 | +1.08%), indicating a modest rise in market volatility. Despite this, the VIX's departure from an uptrend channel and a dovish Federal Reserve stance led to new market highs. The VVIX fell to 76.49 (-0.89 | -1.05%), while the SKEW index moved up to 155.84, signaling sustained vigilance for outlier events. This week's focus is on the Core PCE Price Index and Fed Chair Powell's speech, potentially stirring market dynamics in a week light on notable earnings. Expected market movements have narrowed, with the SPX at +/- 45.92 (+/- 0.88%) and the NDX at +/- 242.37 (+/- 1.32%), reflecting reduced volatility anticipations. VIX futures climbed to 14.600 (+0.120 | +0.82%), with S&amp;P500 and Nasdaq100 futures slightly down: 5343.50 (-7.00 | -0.19%) and 18536 (-38.75 | -0.21%). Friday's most active stock options were: NVDA, TSLA, AAPL, AMD, GOOGL, NKE, MU, LULU, AMZN, and MSFT.</span><span ></span></p> <p><strong><span>In the news: </span></strong><span>US and Japan plan biggest upgrade to security pact in more than 60 years (</span><span><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/df99994d-ec4b-4c3c-9c42-738ec9b338d0"><span>FT</span></a></span><span>), Infrastructure: from investment backwater to a $1tn asset class (</span><span><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/fb0f710c-c1c1-47fd-a4be-0faf1cf9050e"><span>FT</span></a></span><span>), Donald Trump&rsquo;s $464mn bond is due on Monday. What happens next? (</span><span><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/18875a3a-77b9-450a-a0f5-5d1f329debee">FT</a></span><span>), Oil rises as heightened geopolitical risks exacerbate supply concerns (</span><span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-rises-heightened-geopolitical-risks-exacerbate-supply-concerns-2024-03-25/">Reuters</a></span><span>), Google, Apple breakups on the agenda as regulators target tech (</span><span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/google-apple-breakups-agenda-global-regulators-target-tech-2024-03-24/">Reuters</a></span><span>), The $27 Trillion Treasury Market Is Only Getting Bigger (</span><span><a href="https://www.wsj.com/finance/the-27-trillion-treasury-market-is-only-getting-bigger-a9a9d170?mod=hp_lead_pos3">WSJ</a></span><span>), Attack on Russian Concert Hall Threatens Putin&rsquo;s Strongman Image (</span><span><a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/attack-on-russian-concert-hall-threatens-putinsstrongman-image-029854fd?mod=hp_lead_pos2">WSJ</a></span><span>)</span></p> <p><strong >Macro events (all times are GMT): </strong><span >US February Chicago Fed National Activity Index est. -0.34 vs prior -0.30 (12:30), US February New Home Sales est. 675k vs prior 661k (14:00), US March Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity est. -11.5 vs prior -11.3.</span></p> <p><strong >Earnings events: </strong><span >This week&rsquo;s earnings will not move markets as investors are awaiting the Q1 earnings releases that start being published mid-April.</span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>Monday: </span></strong><span>PetroChina, China Merchants, BNP Paribas Fortis</span></li> <li><strong><span>Tuesday:</span></strong><span> BYD, China Telecom, Nongfu Spring, CITIC Securities, ANTA Sports, Flutter Entertainment, McCormick</span></li> <li><strong><span>Wednesday:</span></strong><span> ICBC, China Life Insurance, Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, Cintas, Paychex, Carnival, H&amp;M</span></li> <li><strong><span>Thursday:</span></strong><span> Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, CITIC, Walgreens Boots Alliance</span></li> <li><strong><span>Friday:</span></strong></li> </ul> <p><span >For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo&rsquo;s </span><span ><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar">calendar</a></span></p></div></div><div><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/saxo-be-invested.png?mw=48" alt="Saxo Strategy Team" /><div>Saxo Strategy Team</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>China</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span>United States</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>USDCAD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy (Sector)</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span></div>Mon, 25 Mar 2024 07:10:00 Z2024-03-25T07:21:41Z{CBF15158-FCB4-445B-9B37-E45FAD1404E8}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/forex/weekly-fx-chartbook-the-return-of-us-exceptionalism-25032024Charu Chananaproduct-forexHighlighted articlesmacro-central banksmacro-central banksFederal Reserveforex-eurusdforex-usdjpyforex-xauusdforex-nzdusdforex-audusdMacro-FXplace-lc/usInflationcurrency-usdplace-lc/jpplace-lr/eurforex-gbpaudforex-eurgbpforex-gbpcadforex-gbpchfcurrency-gbpforex-gbpusdforex-gbpjpyGBPJPYEURGBPGBPUSDUSDCNHplace-lc/cnWeekly OutlookWeekly FX Chartbook: The return of US exceptionalism<div class="article-excerpt">After a heavy week of dovish undertones from the key central banks last week, focus has returned to US exceptionalism coming in sharp contrast to the need for bringing forward rate cut bets from the likes of Bank of England or Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The Chinese yuan is also under scrutiny after flip-flop in PBOC fixing.</div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/25_fx_weekly.png"/></div><div class="rte--output">Dollar strength returned to the fore last week with a summer of rate cuts looking likely and prompting dovish repricing for other major central banks after a surprise SNB rate cut, but Gold still held up well.</div><br/><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/25_fx_momentum.png"/></div><div class="rte--output">Our FX Scorecard shows momentum turning negative for Silver and sterling, while USD strength could become the key theme again. </div><br/><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/25_fx_positioning.png"/></div><div class="rte--output">Forex COT to the week of March 19 indicated non-commercial flows heavily tilting towards a long dollar positioning ahead of the FOMC meeting. This was led by a 35% reduction in EUR longs and 24% reduction in GBP longs. In addition, shorts in JPY, AUD and CHF increased further. </div><br/><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/25_fx_views.png"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3">-----------------------------------------------------------------------<br /> <br /> </h3> <p><strong><span class="underline; ">Other recent Macro/FX articles:</span></strong></p> <p><span>25 Mar: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/rf7qpu6?uuid=OPy-R5s"><span>Global Market Quick Take - Asia</span></a><br /> <span >22 Mar: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/crrra71?uuid=OPy-R5s" >Swiss National Bank&rsquo;s bold move will kickstart the G10 rate cut cycle</a><br /> <span >20 Mar: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/n1hgjpn?uuid=tKQmHP-" >Thematic Podcast: Japan's route to abolish negative interest rates</a><br /> <span >20 Mar: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/m9sssxx?uuid=tKQmHP-" >Japan&rsquo;s exit from negative rates: Implications for the economy, yen and stocks</a><br /> <span >19 Mar: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/jhdnmm6?uuid=9Qo3F1Q" >FOMC rate decision: How to trade the event</a><br /> <span >18 Mar: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/eglpsrm?uuid=tKQmHP-" >Macro &amp; FX Podcast: Central bank meetings all over</a><br /> <span >18 Mar: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/e9rxuhb?uuid=9Qo3F1Q" >Weekly FX Chartbook: Heavy central bank focus as FOMC, BOJ, BOE, SNB, RBA meet</a><br /> <span >14 Mar:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://social.saxo/ezrule1?uuid=TuvJvvp" >FOMC vs. BOJ: Who moves the Yen?</a><br /> <span >12 Mar:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://social.saxo/k8ltu1w?uuid=pwxOln2" >Dampening equity sentiment could test GBP resilience</a><br /> <span >11 Mar:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://social.saxo/0qkcu5v?uuid=D-xHePV" >US inflation report: How to trade the event</a><br /> <span >11 Mar:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://social.saxo/fsvqzke?uuid=D-xHePV" >Macro &amp; FX Podcast: Have soft landing hopes turned into expectations?</a><br /> <span >11 Mar:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://social.saxo/dbxbsnh?uuid=D-xHePV" >Weekly FX Chartbook: JPY eying wage talk headlines and US CPI</a><br /> <span >6 Mar: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/lbbyome?uuid=uQBxXVf" >Bitcoin fever is running high, again</a><br /> <span >5 Mar: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/1cqayqy?uuid=ynhUg4G" >FX &amp; Macro Podcast: US jobs data, China's "Two Sessions" &amp; Super Tuesday</a><br /> <span >28 Feb: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/ivtj3vo?uuid=jYUtzHW" >Navigating Japanese equities: Strategies for hedging JPY exposure</a><br /> <span >23 Feb: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/yag27ag?uuid=lkWd0nY" >Nvidia momentum spills over to FX markets</a><br /> <span >21 Feb: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/ggxmcif?uuid=iaRReLt" >Central bank divergence on the radar: Hawkish RBNZ, Dovish BOC and SNB</a><br /> <span >19 Feb: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/za69jxk?uuid=7OOjkeD" >Macro &amp; FX Podcast: How the debate about the US economy has shifted</a><br /> <span >15 Feb: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/rvho4nh?uuid=PqL5OnE" >Swiss Franc&rsquo;s bearish view gets more legs</a><br /> <span >14 Feb: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/3iodcoc?uuid=bWgrp7G" >Sticky US inflation could make dollar strength more durable</a><br /> <span >9 Feb: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/qa2v4lh?uuid=tGc03sl" >Japanese Yen is throwing a warning</a><br /> <span >8 Feb: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/jnu6jup?uuid=DxilNEO" >FX 101: USD Smile and portfolio impacts from King Dollar</a></p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/authors/charu-chanana"><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/charu-chanana-400x400.png?mw=48" alt="Charu Chanana" /><div>Charu Chanana</div><div>Head of FX Strategy</div><div>Saxo Markets</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>NZDUSD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>Macro FX</span> <span>United States</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>USD</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>USDCNH</span> <span>China</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/week-ahead">Weekly Outlook</a></div>Mon, 25 Mar 2024 03:30:00 Z2024-03-25T03:46:30Z{57A632E6-9A6B-4EBB-A1C9-1AB3BC86AD4B}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/macro/global-market-quick-take-asia--march-25-2024-25032024APAC Strategy Teamproduct-macroproduct-commoditiesproduct-forexproduct-macroMacro-FXmacro-central banksmacro-gdpmacro-indicesplace-lr/aspAPAC Market DigestFeatured Market Update APACAPACplace-lc/gbplace-lc/usplace-lc/auplace-lc/cncommodity-crude oilOilsector-Oil and Gasplace-lr/eurcurrency-usdforex-eurusdforex-usdjpyforex-audusdcurrency-gbpforex-gbpusdcommodity-goldFederal Reserveproduct-bondssubject-is/fin.stpbondproduct-equitiesforex-cadjpyforex-gbpjpyforex-chfjpyforex-audjpycurrency-jpyforex-eurjpyECBplace-lc/jpInflationcurrency-sekforex-eursekforex-noksekEURSEKforex-gbpcadforex-gbpchfforex-gbpaudforex-eurgbpEURGBPGBPUSDGBPJPYplace-lc/saforex-audnzdcurrency-audAUDUSDAUDJPYcurrency-nokforex-eurnokforex-usdnokEURNOKforex-xauusdXAUUSDXAGUSDXAGUSDDow Jones IndexGlobal Market Quick Take: Asia – March 25, 2024<div class="article-excerpt"> The DXY index surged above 104.30, its highest in a month, while the Chinese yuan weakened notably, surpassing 7.27 against the dollar. Commodities faced pressure amid dollar strength and renewed China concerns. Japan's Nikkei 225 hit a record high at 40,888.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong><span></span></strong><em >The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.&nbsp;</em></p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/25_qt.jpg"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong><span>Equities</span></strong><span>: Last week, the FOMC took a relatively dovish stance, maintaining the projection of three rate cuts in 2024, and Chair Powell downplayed the recent uptick in inflation data, hinting at a potential slowdown in the balance-sheet run-off. These developments were bullish for US equities, leading to a rally in the S&amp;P500 on Wednesday. However, the momentum somewhat stalled on Thursday and Friday, with the S&amp;P 500 modestly pulling back by 0.1% on Friday. This decline was driven by Nike's 6.9% fall and Lululemon's 15% decline, as both retailers released a downbeat outlook. In contrast, the Nasdaq 100 added 0.1%, buoyed by Nvidia's 3.1% gain and Alphabet's 2.2% increase.</span></p> <p><span>In Japan, the Nikkei 225 reached another record high, closing at 40,888 after the Bank of Japan delivered expected policy shifts during the week, removing one of the key uncertainties. Investors turned their focus towards the regaining of corporate pricing power amid the return of inflation, corporate governance reform, and reshoring, particularly in the technology sector from China, which may benefit Japan. The Nikkei 225 index gained 0.2% on Friday and 3.7% for the week.</span></p> <p><span>In China and Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index and CSI300 dropped by 2.2% and 1.0% respectively due to earnings downgrades, coupled with the renminbi's weakness. Li Auto's stock plunged by 10.9% on Friday and 18.3% for the week after lowering its delivery forecast. Bilibili fell by 9.4% amid Alibaba's decreased holdings. After the Hong Kong market closed on Friday, Meituan reported Q4 earnings that beat expectations, with revenue in line. Its ADS closed in New York 4.2% higher than the Hong Kong closing level. Investors turned cautious ahead of upcoming earnings reports from BYD, China Telecom and Anta Sports on Tuesday and major state-owned banks during the week.</span></p> <p><span>The renminbi's sharp depreciation added to weakness in Chinese and Hong Kong equities, with USDCNH rising by 0.8% to 7.2761. Investors expect China's tolerance for a weaker renminbi amid a slow economic recovery, potentially testing September's high of 7.3682. The possibility of a "Trump presidency 2.0" boosted medium-term prospects for USDCNH. For further discussion on the implications of the US election on Chinese equities and USDCNH, see this </span><span><a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.home.saxo/en-hk/content/articles/macro/china-hk-market-pulse-2024-03-19-19032024__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!rMIJajQd6Y84JQsbADI5oI0CXKU9a4x9kRiR4q8ab1krxQlQIs329w1lLc6t5UqC0ET8XCpHvZKxJDiyLsNhmA$"><span>Saxo article from last week</span></a></span><span>. </span></p> <p><strong><span>FX:&nbsp;</span></strong><span>The dollar strength extended further on Friday, with the DXY index back above 104.30 to its highest levels in over a month. The Chinese yuan saw notable weakness and USDCNH rose sharply above 7.27 to its highest levels since November, with PBoC setting a weak fix and signaling that authorities are wiling to tolerate some yuan depreciation. AUDUSD dropped 40pips as well, slipping from 0.6570 and now trades below 0.6520. EURUSD also testing the 1.08 handle with the <a href="https://social.saxo/crrra71?uuid=CEAjAhD">SNB surprise rate cut</a> prompting wagers to increase bets for ECB easing for June. EURCHF eased from highs of 0.9788 to settle around the 0.967 handle although USDCHF settled just below the 0.90 handle. GBPUSD back below 1.2650 after BoE governor Bailey said rate cuts are in play at future BoE meetings amid signs that tighter policy quelled the risk of a wage-price spiral. </span></p> <p><strong><span>Commodities:&nbsp;</span></strong><span>Commodities came under pressure with dollar strength extending, and China optimism also coming back under the radar. Copper was down nearly 3% for the week, although Iron ore&rsquo;s Friday decline could not reverse the weekly gains completely. China&rsquo;s property earnings this week will be the focus for industrial metals to extend gains. Gold also reversed from the all-time highs of $2,220 to test the $2,160 support with Fed&rsquo;s Bostic moving his expectations to expect only one rate cut this year. Crude oil prices were largely unchanged last week as signs of tightness in the global crude market offset the impact of a stronger USD, but focus remains on sanction and geopolitical risks.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Fixed income: </span></strong><span>A dovish FOMC led to the 10-year Treasury yield trimming 11 bps last week and 7 bps on Friday alone, closing at a low point of 4.20%, precisely on its 200-day moving average. A break below appears probable before the release of PCE inflation data this Friday, which will likely determine the yield's direction entering Q2.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Macro:</span></strong></p> <ul> <li><span>At the China Development Forum, Premier Li Keqiang stressed boosting domestic demand, unifying the national market, advancing urbanization, and upgrading equipment and consumer goods. He also emphasized modernizing industries, driving innovation, upgrading traditional sectors, nurturing emerging ones, and fostering future industries to accelerate the development of new productive forces.</span></li> <li><span>Atlanta Fed Chief Bostic said on Friday that he now only expects one interest rate cut this year, adding that the reduction will likely happen later in the year than he previously expected. He said he had less confidence about the trajectory of inflation than in December, and focus this week turns to the Fed&rsquo;s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE, due out on Friday. </span> <p><strong><span>&nbsp;</span></strong></p> <p><strong><span>Macro events:</span></strong><span>&nbsp;US New Home Sales (Feb), US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Feb)</span></p> <p><strong><span>Earnings:</span></strong><span>&nbsp;China Resources Land, Weichai Power</span></p> <p><strong><span>In the news:</span></strong></p> </li> </ul> <ul> <li><span>Apple CEO extols Chinese suppliers at Beijing forum as iPhone sales dip while Huawei gains (</span><span><a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/sc.mp/orkt8?utm_source=copy-link&amp;utm_campaign=3256534&amp;utm_medium=share_widget__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!ptt7A-TAnNIyWgMRAF6MZtMJjj_vWSsGXNT06qDDRR7F-KQ6dWKHwVv-cdAjPKQBSBveqGpDhG5oDn7zhXNqyw$"><span>SCMP</span></a></span><span>)</span></li> <li><span>Japan stocks could grow more volatile with end of BOJ ETF purchases (</span><span><a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Market-Spotlight/Japan-stocks-could-grow-more-volatile-with-end-of-BOJ-ETF-purchases__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!ptt7A-TAnNIyWgMRAF6MZtMJjj_vWSsGXNT06qDDRR7F-KQ6dWKHwVv-cdAjPKQBSBveqGpDhG5oDn7yDkUPKQ$"><span>Nikkei Asia</span></a></span><span>)</span></li> <li><span>Japan overtook China as the biggest private equity market in Asia-Pacific last year (</span><span><a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/sc.mp/1inly?utm_source=copy-link&amp;utm_campaign=3256437&amp;utm_medium=share_widget__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!ptt7A-TAnNIyWgMRAF6MZtMJjj_vWSsGXNT06qDDRR7F-KQ6dWKHwVv-cdAjPKQBSBveqGpDhG5oDn4WIokkUw$"><span>SCMP</span></a></span><span>)</span></li> <li><span>China plans new rules on market access, data flows (</span><span><a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.reuters.com/world/china/china-plans-new-rules-market-access-data-flows-premier-li-tells-global-ceos-2024-03-24/__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!ptt7A-TAnNIyWgMRAF6MZtMJjj_vWSsGXNT06qDDRR7F-KQ6dWKHwVv-cdAjPKQBSBveqGpDhG5oDn6O287DfA$"><span>Reuters</span></a></span><span>)</span></li> <li><span>Singapore Dollar&rsquo;s Stellar Run Seen Ending on Monetary Easing (</span><span><a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-24/singapore-dollar-s-stellar-run-seen-ending-on-monetary-easing?utm_source=website&amp;utm_medium=share&amp;utm_campaign=copy__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!ptt7A-TAnNIyWgMRAF6MZtMJjj_vWSsGXNT06qDDRR7F-KQ6dWKHwVv-cdAjPKQBSBveqGpDhG5oDn5GJxmvbg$"><span>Bloomberg</span></a></span><span>)</span></li> <li><span>Chocolate Panic Escalates as Cocoa Crunch Sparks Scramble to Buy (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-03-22/global-food-roundup-chocolate-at-risk-from-record-cocoa-prices?srnd=markets-vp">Bloomberg</a>)</span></li> <li><span>China blocks use of Intel and AMD chips in government computers (<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/7bf0f79b-dea7-49fa-8253-f678d5acd64a">FT</a>)</span></li> </ul> <p><span>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo&rsquo;s </span><span><a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/calendar__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!s9h6Lxrg5HnW-eaWk8tithFc-W0n--QMbcd4gCbGcsfsr8F4qW3WsLXo8BbCgDcDp3oD1lF8AZcy_oIvBlBzWQ$"><span>calendar.</span></a></span></p> <p><span>For a global look at markets &ndash; go to </span><a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration?activetab=latest__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!s9h6Lxrg5HnW-eaWk8tithFc-W0n--QMbcd4gCbGcsfsr8F4qW3WsLXo8BbCgDcDp3oD1lF8AZcy_oJJtW5lSw$"><span>Inspiration</span></a></p></div></div><div><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/saxo-strats-apac-team-400x400.png?mw=48" alt="APAC Strategy Team" /><div>APAC Strategy Team</div><div>Saxo Group</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Macro FX</span> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>United States</span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span></div>Mon, 25 Mar 2024 00:30:00 Z2024-03-25T00:48:49Z{754DED96-4B62-459C-A028-AD4CFDC741AE}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/forex/technical-analysis-eurusd-dollar-index-directionless-gbpusd-breaking-bearish-22032024Kim Cramer Larssonproduct-forexTechnical analysisforex-gbpusdcurrency-usdforex-eurusdDollar IndexTechnical Update - Volatile EURUSD and Dollar Index without direction. GBPUSD breaking bearish? <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><ul> <li><strong><span>EURUSD's volatile movements around key Fibonacci levels and Moving Averages are pivotal in understanding why the cross is directionless on the short-term</span></strong><strong><span><br /> <strong><span>EURUSD could be stuck range bound between 1.08 and 1.070 for the foreseeable future with decreasing volatility</span></strong></span></strong><strong><span><strong><span><br /> <br /> </span></strong></span></strong></li> <li><strong><span><strong><span>GBP/USD (Cable) is trading below a key support at 1.26 and below the 200 DMA, with a bearish sentiment indicated by the RSI. Closing price today could be crucial for the trend direction</span></strong></span></strong><br /> <br /> </li> <li><strong><span> <strong><span>The Dollar Index is experiencing volatility influenced by conflicting moving averages, with its direction uncertain as it approaches key resistance levels</span></strong></span></strong></li> </ul> <p><strong> <br /> EURUSD </strong>is experiencing considerable volatility, partly due to conflicting signals from its daily moving averages (DMAs). With the 21 DMA rising, the 55 DMA declining, the 100 DMA rising, and the 200 DMA almost flat, the currency pair lacks a clear directional trend across short-, medium-, and long-term perspectives.</p> <p>Fibonacci retracement levels are key in understanding EURUSD's recent movements:</p> <ol> <li>In early March, EURUSD reached the 0.618 Fibonacci level at 1.0970 and then retracted</li> <li>It then declined to the 0.50 retracement of the mid-February to mid-March uptrend and the 0.786 retracement of the early March uptrend at 1.0835</li> <li>The pair rebounded from 1.0835, approaching the 0.786 retracement at 1.0949 but closed below the 0.618 level at 1.0925</li> <li>EURUSD is now testing the 0.618 retracement of the mid-February to mid-March uptrend at 1.0804</li> </ol> <p>A close below 1.0795 could lead to further declines toward the 0.786 level at 1.0756. EURUSD is nearing strong support at the 0.618 retracement around 1.08. A rebound from this level and a break above 1.0945 could signal a resumption of the uptrend, supported by positive sentiment indicated by the RSI.<br /> Conversely, a close below 1.0795, potentially pushing the RSI below 40, would suggest a bearish outlook, possibly targeting the February lows around 1.07<br /> <br /> <span>The medium-term weekly chart for EURUSD suggests the formation of a triangle-like pattern, indicating potential decreasing volatility as the pair approaches the apex (where the two lines meet, setting the stage for a breakout</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/eurusd-d-2203.png"/></div><div class="rte--output">Source all charts and data: Saxo Group</div><br/><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/eurusd-w-2203.png"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p>At the time of writing,&nbsp;<strong>GBPUSD</strong> (Cable) is trading below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement and key support level at 1.26, also positioned below the 200-day moving average (DMA). <br /> The RSI indicator is under the 40 threshold, suggesting furhter bearish movement <br /> <br /> If GBPUSD closes the day below 1.26, it may lead to further declines towards 1.25.</p> <p>To counter this bearish trend, GBP/USD needs to close above the Ichimoku Cloud (shaded area), specifically above 1.2666, which would signify a potential shift in momentum and a possible trend reversal.</p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/gbpusd-d-2203.png"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p>The <strong>Dollar Index</strong> is experiencing quite a lot of volatility, partly due to the mixed signals from its moving averages. The 21 DMA and 100 DMA are declining, the 55 DMA is on the rise, and the 200 DMA remains nearly flat, illustrating the lack of a clear trend.</p> <p>The index is nearing a critical resistance level at around 104.24, which is closely aligned with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at 104.32. A daily close above these levels could propel the index towards a strong resistance at 105.83, with an intermediate resistance near 104.88.</p> <p>Should the Dollar Index get rejected at 104.24-104.32 area, it's likely to enter a phase of range-bound trading between 104.25 and 102.55 for an extended period</p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/dollar-d-2203.png"/></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/authors/kim-cramer-larsson"><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/kim-cramer-larsson-400x400.png?mw=48" alt="Kim Cramer Larsson" /><div>Kim Cramer Larsson</div><div>Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>Technical analysis</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>Dollar Index</span></div>Fri, 22 Mar 2024 09:35:45 Z2024-03-22T11:46:44Z{CB314859-6241-44DA-9814-FF976B3C9DE2}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/you-can-now-trade-reddit-22032024Saxoproduct-equitiesReddit: meme stock or tech giant?<div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p data-sourcepos="3:1-3:140"><strong>Key points in this article</strong></p> <ul > <li data-sourcepos="3:1-3:140"><span>Social Media Darling Goes Public:</span>&nbsp;Reddit, known for its "wallstreetbets" forum, finally IPOed on March 21st, valued at $6.5 billion.<br /> <br /> </li> <li data-sourcepos="4:1-4:171"><span>UGC Powerhouse:</span>&nbsp;Reddit leverages user-generated content to fuel growth, boasting 73 million daily active users and attracting a $60 million data deal with Google.<br /> <br /> </li> <li data-sourcepos="5:1-5:160"><span>Retail Investor Haven:</span>&nbsp;Reddit's user base boomed during the meme stock frenzy, solidifying its position as the go-to platform for U.S. retail investors.<br /> <br /> </li> <li data-sourcepos="6:1-6:168"><span>Profitability on the Horizon:</span>&nbsp;Despite revenue growth, Reddit remains unprofitable, though losses are narrowing. They project strong user growth moving forward.</li> </ul> Reddit, one of the world's most influential social platforms and known for the "wallstreetbets" forum, has finally confirmed its initial public offering (IPO) on March 21st. The company has been pursuing a listing for more than three years. Reddit's listing will be one of the largest initial public offerings so far in 2024. This is also the first IPO of a large social media company since Pinterest went public in 2019. The number of Reddit users has exploded during the pandemic when U.S. stock retail investors who were active on the Reddit forum gathered together to speculate on GME and other meme stocks. It is regarded as the "base camp for retail investors in U.S. stocks".<br /> <br /> <strong>Long-awaited IPO<br /> </strong><br /> Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, is disclosed as the 3rd largest shareholder, following Advance Magazine Publishers and Tencent. The company is valued at as much as USD 6.5 billion. Reddit's IPO will be a major confidence test for investors' interest in new stock listings now. It has been more than two years since Reddit began preparing for its listing. So far this year, the recovery of the IPO market has been uneven. On a fully diluted basis, Reddit is valued below its USD 10 billion valuation in its 2021 funding round. The company will list on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker "RDDT"<br /> <br /> <strong>Revenue Model<br /> </strong><br /> In terms of financial performance, the prospectus shows in 2022 and 2023, Reddit's annual revenue will reach USD 667 million and USD 804 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%. In addition, the company's net loss in 2022 was USD 159 million. Although it will still be in the red in 2023, the loss has narrowed to USD 91 million. Reddit also revealed in the IPO document that as of December 31st, 2023, its average daily active users were 73.1 million and weekly active users were 268 million. At the same time, there are more than 100,000 active communities on the platform, and the cumulative number of posts on the platform has reached 1 billion. Interestingly, Reddit, which has emerged based on the UGC model (User Generated Content), has formulated a directional share plan and invited some Reddit moderators and users to purchase the company's Class A common shares before the IPO. <br /> <br /> In February 2024, Reddit and Google announced that they have reached a license agreement worth approximately USD 60 million per year. Reddit comments: "We believe that our growing platform data will become a key element in leading large language model ('LLM') training and become an additional revenue channel for Reddit." <br /> <br /> <strong>Growth Expectation<br /> <br /> </strong>As of December 2023, Reddit has projected 27% year-on-year growth in terms of daily active users, with 36.4 million users based in the US, while 36.7 million are based in the rest of the world. To further strengthen its user economy, Reddit's user-created content is seen as a unique positioning of real human experience.</div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/content-development-and-strategy/soren/reddit/reddit-1.png"/></div><div class="rte--output">Reddit IPO prospectus</div><br/><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/content-development-and-strategy/soren/reddit/reddit-2.png"/></div><div class="rte--output">Reddit IPO prospectus</div><br/><div><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/saxo-be-invested.png?mw=48" alt="Saxo" /><div>Saxo</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a></div>Fri, 22 Mar 2024 08:00:00 Z2024-03-27T08:54:25Z{C3A9EF69-01B3-41DE-AEBA-8F0C611052CB}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/forex/do-you-know-there-is-fx-risk-in-your-equity-investments_jpy-22032024Danny Khooproduct-forexForex - EducationUSDSGDDo you know there is FX risk in your Japanese stock investments?<div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong >What happens to your equity returns when USDJPY moves?<br /> <br /> </strong><span >Suppose you bought Fast Retailing at the market open on 13</span><sup>th</sup><span > April 2023. On 8</span><sup>th</sup><span > March 2024, your investment in Fast Retailing has done well, gaining 47.52%.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/miscellaneous/jpy_1.png"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output">As Fast Retailing is priced in JPY, the returns of 47.52% will be in JPY terms. However, in USD terms, the total return will depend very much on how USDJPY moved during the holding period. During this period, USDJPY rose (JPY weakened) from 133.08 to 148.08 which has affected the returns negatively. On the contrary, if USDJPY dropped (JPY strengthened) during this period, your returns would have been higher than 47.52%.</div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/miscellaneous/jpy_2.png"/></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/miscellaneous/jpy_3.png"/></div><div class="rte--output">Fast Retailing (right) and USDJPY (left) price chart between 13/04/2023 and 08/03/2024. Source: Saxo Charts</div><br/><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/miscellaneous/jpy_4.png"/></div><div class="rte--output">Return (%) in USD terms during the period from 13/04/2023 to 08/03/2024</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span>In the example above, due to USDJPY rising (JPY weakening) during the holding period, the overall return of the investment fell from 47.52% to 32.57% in USD terms. On the contrary, if USDJPY went down, then that would have meant a better return than 47.52%.</span></p> <p><strong><span>What Can Investors Do?<br /> <br /> </span></strong><strong >1. Do nothing.<br /> </strong><span >If investors are consciously taking the FX exposure in the stock investment or have a view that USDJPY will go lower for their investment horizon, they can choose to do nothing and let the FX exposure prevail. Their overall return in USD terms will fluctuate based on the USDJPY rate.</span></p> <p><strong><span>2. Investor can hedge the FX exposure by trading FX spot or FX forward.<br /> </span></strong><span >Investors can hedge the FX exposure by selling the equivalent of the JPY exposure in the Fast Retailing stock with the following steps below:<br /> <br /> a)&nbsp;</span><span >Calculate the JPY exposure of the position. This is 2,944,000 JPY in the example above.<br /> b)&nbsp;</span><span >Sell 2,944,000 JPY against USD as an FX spot position.<br /> c)&nbsp;</span><span >P&amp;L from this position is summarized in the table below. In USD terms, it is $2,240.88.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/miscellaneous/jpy_5.png"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span>The P&amp;L calculation above is a simplified one ignoring the effect of interest rate differential between USD and JPY which was also extremely favorable for the hedge in this case because of the sharp differencing interest rates between USD and JPY.<br /> <br /> </span><span >If investors want a precise hedge, then they can choose to do an FX forward for their expected duration of the investment upfront and roll it over to a further date when needed.<br /> <br /> </span><span class="underline; "><strong>FX hedging impact on equity return in USD terms<br /> </strong></span><span >If we examine the impact of equity returns from FX hedging, we see that this raises the return (%) in USD terms from 32.57% to 42.70%. It is still lower than the original stock returns of 47.52% as the FX hedging is only done at the beginning of the trade. To achieve the exact stock returns in USD terms, the investor would need to constantly FX hedge as the JPY exposure rises as Fast Retailing heads higher.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/miscellaneous/jpy_6.png"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span>Trade 185+ FX spot pairs and 140+ forwards on our award-winning platform.<br /> </span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/products/forex" >https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/products/forex</a><br /> <span ><br /> Check out how FX risk affects your US holdings too via this <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/forex/do-you-know-there-is-fx-risk-in-your-equity-investments-16012024">case study on Microsoft stock</a>.</span></p></div></div><div><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/danny-khoo-400x400.png?mw=48" alt="Danny Khoo" /><div>Danny Khoo</div><div>Sales Trader</div><div>Saxo Markets</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>Forex - Education</span> <span>USDSGD</span></div>Fri, 22 Mar 2024 07:49:00 Z2024-03-22T08:51:59Z{B9815806-F967-46FC-8F85-BC53F450BBFB}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/macro/global-market-quick-take-europe-22-march-2024-22032024Saxo Strategy Teamproduct-macroproduct-equitiesproduct-commoditiesproduct-bondsproduct-forexThought StartersAdvanced ordersplace-lc/cnplace-lr/eurmacro-employmentplace-lc/usplace-lc/gbsubject-is/pol.euforex-xauusdcurrency-usdforex-eurusdXAGUSDforex-usdcadforex-usdjpysector-gics-1010sector-TechnologyS P 500 indexQuick TakeWeekly NewsletterGlobal Market Quick Take: Europe – 22 March 2024<div class="article-excerpt">Equities are slightly lower after yesterday's strong session on better than expected US macro data. Swiss National Bank cut its policy rate starting the global interest rate cut cycle. The USD is stronger and crude oil is a bit under pressure.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Key points:</strong></h3> <ul > <li><strong><span>Markets retreat:</span></strong><span> US equities pull back from all-time highs after strong US data.</span><br /> <br /> </li> <li><strong><span>Central bank surprises:</span></strong><span> Swiss National Bank cut rates starting the global rate cut cycle. Bank of England left rates unchanged but signaled a dovish shift.</span><br /> <br /> </li> <li><strong><span>Mixed bag in commodities:</span></strong><span> Oil pressured by dollar strength and gold retreated after a spike above $2,200.</span><br /> <br /> </li> <li><strong><span>Equity movers:</span></strong><span> Reddit soared in its IPO yesterday, while Nike and Lululemon shares fell on cautious outlooks, FedEx rose on strong earnings.</span><br /> <br /> </li> <li><strong><span>Technicals watch:</span></strong><span> Key reversal patterns formed in major indices, support and resistance levels to watch in currency pairs.</span></li> </ul> <p><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong><span>Equity futures globally are down in early trading hours retreating from yesterday&rsquo;s strong upward move taking US equities to a new all-time high. Strong US macroeconomic data lifted sentiment and extended Nasdaq 100 futures above the 18,500 level. Reddit had its first day of trading yesterday gaining 48% taking the market value to $8bn (around 10 times revenue). Nike shares were down 5% in extended trading on as the CFO said it expected revenue to be down low single digits in the first half. FedEx shares gained 10% in extended trading on more buybacks, more restrained CAPEX spending and an earnings outlook that beat expectations. Lululemon shares were down 11% in extended trading following a cautious outlook and new challenges in its US market.</span></p> <p><strong><span>FX</span></strong><span>: The dollar saw a sharp rebound, and the DXY index rose back above the 104 level in Asia, as a neutral Powell started to look hawkish amid a dovish wave coming from other central banks such as SNB and BOE. Strong US data also underpinned, signalling that the Fed may be able to engineer a soft landing. SNB&rsquo;s surprise rate cut saw USDCHF breaking above 0.89 and reaching straight for the 0.90 handle with highs seen at 0.8995 for now while EURCHF retreated slightly to 0.9740 from highs of 0.9788. The SNB rate cut will kickstart a global easing cycle, and more downside for CHFJPY is likely. GBPUSD also pushed back below the 1.27 handle as BOE vote split tilted dovish, but 100DMA around 1.2640 is offering support for now. USDCNH rose sharply to 7.26 as PBOC yuan fixing came out much weaker than expected. Chinese authorities continue to be threatened by yen weakness given their competitive export markets. USDJPY saw a move below 151 in Asia session on Thursday but has returned higher to 151.60 amid dollar strength. EURUSD slid below 1.0840, reversing the post-FOMC gains.&nbsp;</span></p> <p><strong><span>Commodities:</span></strong><span> Crude oil prices are under some pressure due to the strong dollar, but Brent Crude remains above $85/brl as rate outlook and supply tightness concerns continued to underpin prices. Gold briefly spiked above $2,200/oz yesterday but is coming down in today&rsquo;s session trading around the $2,167 level. The expectation of central banks starting to cut policy rates later this year will continue to underpin gold. Iron ore continued to recover from the recent rout, while copper rose earlier in the session with risk-on sentiment in play but could not sustain the momentum amid dollar strength.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong><span> European bonds surged following a surprise rate cut by the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England's dovish pivot, as even hawkish policymakers backed away from rate hikes. Initially, the rally spread to US Treasuries but reversed after US data showed stronger-than-expected Manufacturing PMI and home sales, along with jobless claims highlighting a strong labor market. Appetite for Treasuries was gauged by 4- and 8-week bill auctions, and a 10-year TIPS auction. The 4-week bills were favored, with indirect bidders taking down 66.8% of the auction, compared to 54.1% for the 8-week bills&mdash;both auctions saw stopped through when-issued. However, the $16 billion 10-year TIPS auction underperformed, tailing by 2bps. Ten-year US Treasury yields ended the day unchanged, while 2-year yields edged 2bps higher to 4.58%. Following the recent FOMC meeting we continue to favour the front part of the yield curve, while remaining cautious about the ultra-long duration. To learn more about it click </span><span><a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.home.saxo/content/articles/bonds/fomc-bond-takeaway-beware-of-ultra-long-duration-21032024__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!v8_6uwMpBKbV_fZ30_IOfsrDr4BPN9FCvcPC91_hLutr2nsgu5lmqTHai4CCa1HpWrZaUEesAq-fDjjojfy2M-jQ$">here</a></span><span>.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Macro: </span></strong><span>The Bank of England MPC once again opted to stand pat on rates at 5.25%, however the vote split shifted dovish. Two of the members, Haskel and Mann, moved into the unchanged camp from voting for rate hikes earlier, leading to an 8-1 split with Dhingra the lone dissenter in opting for a rate cut. Market has increased the odds of a June rate cut now to 77% from 58% earlier. The Swiss National Bank delivered a surprise rate cut of 25bps, kickstarting the G10 easing cycle and putting pressure on the Fed, ECB and BOE to start cutting rates by mid-year. Concerns over the currency was the primary catalyst for SNB, and as we have highlighted before, the next SNB meeting was only after the Fed and the ECB. US S&amp;P Flash PMI composite reading for March fell to 52.2 from 52.5 with divergence between services and manufacturing. The manufacturing sector was the strong spot, with the PMI seeing a surprise rise to 52.5 from 52.2 (exp. 51.7), while services fell more than expected to 51.7 from 52.3 (exp. 52.0). On the other side of the pond, Eurozone PMIs indicated weakness in manufacturing while services PMI lifted higher. Japan&rsquo;s headline CPI for February rose to 2.8% YoY from 2.2% in January, but came in below 2.9% expected. Core CPI rose to 2.8% as expected from 2.0% previously but core-core measures eased to 3.2% YoY, a notch lower than 3.3% expected, from 3.5% YoY in January. Focus today will be on the second tally of wage negotiation results.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Technical analysis highlights: Dow Jones and S&amp;P 500 </span></strong><span>cancelled top and reversal pattern. <strong>S&amp;P </strong>now looking at 5,300 or will it form a new top?<strong> Nasdaq 100 </strong>top and reversal pattern still intact, cancelled if closing above 18,417. </span><span><br /> </span><strong><span>EURUSD </span></strong><span>failed to keep upside momentum, could test key strong support at 1.08. <strong>GBPUSD </strong>rejected at 0.618 retracement at 1.2807, now likely to test key support at 1.26.&nbsp; <strong>USDJPY </strong>strong resist at 151.95, a break above bullish move to 153.50. <strong>USDCHF </strong>bullish potential to 0.9050. <strong>AUDJPY </strong>top and reversal pattern indicating pair could drop to 98.20. <strong>Gold </strong>hit by selling after reaching 1.618 projection at&nbsp; 2,225, could slide back to 2.146. <strong>Silver </strong>lost steam just below 26.00, retracing 0.382. <strong>US 10-year T-yields</strong> rejected at 4.35. Could slide back to 4.20</span></p> <p><strong><span>Volatility:</span></strong><span> Yesterday, the VIX edged down to $12.92 (-0.12 | -0.92%), signaling a further easing in market volatility. The VIX1D notably declined to $9.44 (-1.46 | -13.39%), illustrating diminishing short-term concerns. The VVIX also saw a decrease to 77.30 (-1.57 | -1.99%). However, the SKEW index, which tracks the potential for outlier events, jumped to 154.00 (+12.81 | +9.07%). Today, attention turns to Fed Chair Powell's speech for further insights into interest rate decisions, potentially sparking volatility. VIX futures experienced a slight increase in the overnight session to 14.500 (+0.045 | +0.30%). Futures for the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 show little change at 5305.50 (+3.00 | +0.06%) and 18575.00 (+13.25 | +0.07%) respectively. Thursday's options market was busiest with trades in AAPL, TSLA, NVDA, AMD, MU, MO, AMZN, MSFT, BAC, and COIN.</span></p> <p><strong><span>In the news: </span></strong><span>US government is asking Ukraine to stop attacking Russian oil refineries due to risk of retaliation and higher crude oil prices (</span><span><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/98f15b60-bc4d-4d3c-9e57-cbdde122ac0c"><span>FT</span></a></span><span>), Bank of England&rsquo;s Andrew Bailey says rate cuts &lsquo;in play&rsquo; in upbeat take on UK economy (</span><span><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/964d883f-4f47-4f2f-bd13-b44858efa075"><span>FT</span></a></span><span>), Reddit Shares Soar in Long-Awaited IPO (</span><span><a href="https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/reddits-stock-jumps-in-ipo-9b1536ee?mod=hp_lead_pos5"><span>WSJ</span></a></span><span>), Wegovy to be covered by US Medicare for heart disease patients (</span><span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/wegovy-be-covered-by-us-medicare-heart-disease-patients-2024-03-21/"><span>Reuters</span></a></span><span>)</span></p> <p><strong><span>Macro events (all times are GMT):</span></strong><span> German Mar IFO expectations est. 84.7 vs prior 84.1 (09:00), ECB speeches from Nagel, Holzmann, and Centeno (09:00 to 12:00), Norway March unemployment rate est. 2.0% vs. 2.1%, Canada Jan retail sales MoM est. -0.4% vs prior 0.9%.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Earnings events: </span></strong><span>Quiet day on earnings.</span></p> <ul > <li><strong><span>Today:</span></strong><span> China Shenhua Energy, Meituan, Zijin Mining Group, Yihai Kerry Arawana, CMOC Group, China Petroleum &amp; Chemical</span></li> </ul> <p><span>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo&rsquo;s </span><span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar"><span>calendar</span></a></span><span> </span></p></div></div><div><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/saxo-be-invested.png?mw=48" alt="Saxo Strategy Team" /><div>Saxo Strategy Team</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>China</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span>United States</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>USDCAD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy (Sector)</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span></div>Fri, 22 Mar 2024 07:45:00 Z2024-03-22T08:09:54Z{C444ACAE-E7F2-4FB4-8DD1-26B02526395C}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/macro/swiss-national-banks-bold-move-will-kickstart-the-g10-rate-cut-cycle-22032024Charu Chananaproduct-macroHighlighted articlesmacro-central banksmacro-central banksFederal Reserveforex-xauusdMacro-FXplace-lc/usInflationcurrency-usdforex-gbpjpyGBPJPYforex-eurjpyforex-cadjpyforex-chfjpyforex-audjpycurrency-jpyforex-usdjpyEURJPYUSDJPYAUDJPYplace-lc/jpBank of JapanJapan 225product-forexproduct-bondssubject-is/fin.stpbondSwiss National Bank’s bold move will kickstart the G10 rate cut cycle<div class="article-excerpt">The Swiss National Bank's surprise rate cut has set off the G10 rate cut cycle, fueling pressure on other central banks to follow suit. Bearish CHF bias intact but USDCHF and EURCHF could be volatile while CHFJPY has more room on the downside. </div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span class="underline; ">SNB&rsquo;s surprise rate cut</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The Swiss National Bank (SNB) surprised markets by slashing its key rate from 1.75% to 1.50%, marking the beginning of the G10 rate cut cycle. A rate cut was only priced in with ~30% odds by the market, and we had highlighted the case for a surprise cut in our <a href="https://social.saxo/eglpsrm?uuid=AtIe6tF">Weekly Macro podcast</a> on Monday. </span></p> <p><span>This unconventional move underscores the SNB's response to persistent inflationary challenges, as inflation has been below the 2% target for nine months in a row. The central bank also lowered its conditional inflation forecasts and now expects inflation to average 1.4% in 2024 (vs. 1.9% forecasted in December), 1.2% in 2025 (vs. 1.6%) and 1.1% in 2026.</span></p> <p><span>The appreciation of the Swiss franc (CHF) and risks of further upside as global easing cycle gets underway possibly underpinned the decision. While a strong CHF has been beneficial in curbing inflation, it has now become a double-edged sword, weighing heavily on the competitiveness of Swiss companies. By cutting rates, the SNB aims to stimulate growth and address currency challenges.</span></p> <p><span>The market response was swift, with CHF depreciating against the USD and EUR. Swiss stocks also received a boost. The language on FX interventions has remained unchanged, but latest data suggests that the SNB is reducing FX sales as CHF strength has become a concern. </span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/22_fx_eurchf.png"/></div><div class="rte--output">EURCHF breaking above the downward channel. Source: Bloomberg</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span class="underline; ">Other central banks would be wary of delaying rate cuts now</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The SNB's move has broader implications for other central banks, signalling a shift towards looser monetary policies across major economies. The SNB decision came along with dovish tilts in much of the other central bank communications this week. </span></p> <p><span>Most prominently, the Fed seemed to be unperturbed by the recent hot inflation prints, keeping the mid-year rate cut expectations beaming. The Bank of England also saw two MPC members dropping their votes to hike. The ECB commentary also remains dovish, and German and French PMIs for February suggest economic momentum remains weak. There seems to be an increasing case for most major central banks to start rate cuts by June. T</span></p> <p><span>This would suggest that the next rate cut comes from Bank of Canada which meets on 5 June, if signals on Fed easing become clearer by then. Next would be ECB, which meets on 6 June followed by the Fed on 12 June and BOE on 20 June. The RBA and RBNZ could then start the rate cut cycle later in July or August. This is opening up increasing risks of dovish repricing for most major currencies, particularly CAD, EUR and GBP, as disinflation trends become more entrenched.</span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span class="underline; ">Market Implications</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Bearish bias on CHF remains with SNB likely to cut again in June. CHF has already been an underperformer this year, and the rate cuts could signal an increasing preference to use the franc as a funding currency in carry trades in the current low FX volatility environment. USDCHF and EURCHF could continue to see further upside, but some volatile is likely if ECB and Fed data disappoints and dovish repricing catches pace. It may also be worth considering strategies to express a weak CHF view against JPY which has been stretched to the downside. Intervention threat for CHF and JPY is also mis-aligned, with Japanese authorities worried about excess yen weakness but Swiss authorities attempting to curb CHF strength. CHFJPY is testing the 168.50 level, and break could expose the 200DMA around 166.30. </span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/22_fx_chfjpy.png"/></div><div class="rte--output">CHFJPY could reverse the long-term uptrend. Source: Bloomberg</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3">-----------------------------------------------------------------------<br /> <br /> </h3> <p><strong><span class="underline; ">Other recent Macro/FX articles:</span></strong></p> <p><span>22 Mar: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/qksdsiz?uuid=tKQmHP-"><span>Global Market Quick Take - Asia</span></a><br /> <span >21 Mar: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/enepkcs?uuid=tKQmHP-" >Technical Update - USDCHF and EURCHF propelling higher. EURCHF to reach par?</a><br /> <span >20 Mar: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/n1hgjpn?uuid=tKQmHP-" >Thematic Podcast: Japan's route to abolish negative interest rates</a><br /> <span >20 Mar: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/m9sssxx?uuid=tKQmHP-" >Japan&rsquo;s exit from negative rates: Implications for the economy, yen and stocks</a><br /> <span >19 Mar: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/jhdnmm6?uuid=9Qo3F1Q" >FOMC rate decision: How to trade the event</a><br /> <span >18 Mar: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/eglpsrm?uuid=tKQmHP-" >Macro &amp; FX Podcast: Central bank meetings all over</a><br /> <span >18 Mar: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/e9rxuhb?uuid=9Qo3F1Q" >Weekly FX Chartbook: Heavy central bank focus as FOMC, BOJ, BOE, SNB, RBA meet</a><br /> <span >14 Mar: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/ezrule1?uuid=TuvJvvp" >FOMC vs. BOJ: Who moves the Yen?</a><br /> <span >12 Mar: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/k8ltu1w?uuid=pwxOln2" >Dampening equity sentiment could test GBP resilience</a><br /> <span >11 Mar: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/0qkcu5v?uuid=D-xHePV" >US inflation report: How to trade the event</a><br /> <span >6 Mar: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/lbbyome?uuid=uQBxXVf" >Bitcoin fever is running high, again</a><br /> <span >5 Mar: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/1cqayqy?uuid=ynhUg4G" >FX &amp; Macro Podcast: US jobs data, China's "Two Sessions" &amp; Super Tuesday</a><br /> <span >28 Feb: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/ivtj3vo?uuid=jYUtzHW" >Navigating Japanese equities: Strategies for hedging JPY exposure</a><br /> <span >23 Feb: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/yag27ag?uuid=lkWd0nY" >Nvidia momentum spills over to FX markets</a><br /> <span >21 Feb: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/ggxmcif?uuid=iaRReLt" >Central bank divergence on the radar: Hawkish RBNZ, Dovish BOC and SNB</a><br /> <span >15 Feb: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/rvho4nh?uuid=PqL5OnE" >Swiss Franc&rsquo;s bearish view gets more legs</a><br /> <span >14 Feb: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/3iodcoc?uuid=bWgrp7G" >Sticky US inflation could make dollar strength more durable</a><br /> <span >9 Feb: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/qa2v4lh?uuid=tGc03sl" >Japanese Yen is throwing a warning</a><br /> <span >8 Feb: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/jnu6jup?uuid=DxilNEO" >FX 101: USD Smile and portfolio impacts from King Dollar</a></p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/authors/charu-chanana"><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/charu-chanana-400x400.png?mw=48" alt="Charu Chanana" /><div>Charu Chanana</div><div>Head of FX Strategy</div><div>Saxo Markets</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>Macro FX</span> <span>United States</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>USD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Bank of Japan</span> <span>Japan 225</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span></div>Fri, 22 Mar 2024 04:30:00 Z2024-03-22T04:33:45Z{B8090AB6-8FA3-418A-ACE6-6C0749993928}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/macro/global-market-quick-take-asia--march-22-2024-22032024Charu Chananaproduct-macroproduct-commoditiesproduct-forexproduct-macroMacro-FXmacro-central banksmacro-gdpmacro-indicesplace-lr/aspAPAC Market DigestFeatured Market Update APACAPACplace-lc/gbplace-lc/usplace-lc/auplace-lc/cncommodity-crude oilOilsector-Oil and Gasplace-lr/eurcurrency-usdforex-eurusdforex-usdjpyforex-audusdcurrency-gbpforex-gbpusdcommodity-goldFederal Reserveproduct-bondssubject-is/fin.stpbondproduct-equitiesforex-cadjpyforex-gbpjpyforex-chfjpyforex-audjpycurrency-jpyforex-eurjpyECBplace-lc/jpInflationcurrency-sekforex-eursekforex-noksekEURSEKforex-gbpcadforex-gbpchfforex-gbpaudforex-eurgbpEURGBPGBPUSDGBPJPYplace-lc/saforex-audnzdcurrency-audAUDUSDAUDJPYcurrency-nokforex-eurnokforex-usdnokEURNOKforex-xauusdXAUUSDXAGUSDXAGUSDDow Jones IndexGlobal Market Quick Take: Asia – March 22, 2024<div class="article-excerpt">Stocks extended gains despite Apple’s regulatory hassles, as US data continued to be strong and dovish tones from global central banks underpinned. </div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong><span></span></strong><em >The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.&nbsp;</em></p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/22_qt.png"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong><span>Equities</span></strong><span>: Another record close for S&amp;P 500 as the post-Fed rally in stocks built further amid strong US data and dovish undertones coming out of some of the other central banks such as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) which went for a surprise rate cut and the Bank of England (BOE) where hawkish dissenters gave in. The rally extended further despite pressure on some of the big tech names. Apple fell over 4% after the US Department of Justice and 16 states filed a lawsuit alleging that it is illegally monopolizing the smartphone market. Reddit surged 47% as it started trading at IPO price of $35, while Micron soared 14% on strong earnings. FedEx climbed 13% in post-market on strong earning, and Nike Q3 earnings were also better than expected, and shares were up 4% in the after-hours. Lululemon, however, slumped 11% post-market as full-year guidance fell short of expectations. </span></p> <p><span>In Asia, Nikkei 225 extended its strong run yesterday, closing at another record high above 40k as the index rose over 2%, and 41k is on target today. Hang Seng was also up close to 2% as China tech earnings fueled optimism, although CSI 300 ended marginally lower. Li Auto fell 7% after the Chinese EV maker cut its Q1 delivery forecast. </span></p> <p><strong><span>FX:&nbsp;</span></strong><span>The dollar saw a sharp rebound, and the DXY index inched back to the 104 handle, as a neutral Powell started to look relatively hawkish amid a dovish wave coming from other central banks such as SNB and BOE. Strong US data also underpinned, signaling that the Fed may be able to engineer a soft landing. SNB&rsquo;s surprise rate cut saw USDCHF breaking above 0.89 to reach highs of 0.8994 while EURCHF inched higher to 0.9750 and our technical analyst sees <a href="https://social.saxo/enepkcs?uuid=T9vAMYM">further upside potential</a>. GBPUSD also pushed back below the 1.27 handle as BOE vote split tilted dovish, but 100DMA around 1.2640 is offering support. USDJPY saw a move below 151 in Asia session on Thursday but has returned higher to 151.60 amid dollar strength. EURUSD slid below 1.09, reversing much of post-FOMC gains. </span></p> <p><strong><span>Commodities:&nbsp;</span></strong><span>Crude oil prices were under some pressure due to the strong dollar, but WTI held above the key $80-mark as rate outlook and supply tightness concerns continued to underpin. Gold surged to a record high as the prospect of rate cuts from the Fed rose. The precious metal hit $2,220/oz before giving back some gains late in the session as the USD rose. Iron ore continued to recover from the recent rout, while copper rose earlier in the session with risk-on sentiment in play but could not sustain the momentum amid dollar strength. </span></p> <p><strong><span>Fixed income: </span></strong><span>Strong US economic data kept the front-end Treasury yields higher, while the long-end yields as well as EGB and Gilt yields pushed lower amid the dovish tones coming out from central banks such as the SNB and the BOE. Attention is now on set up for next week's 2s, 5s, and 7s auctions on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, respectively.</span></p> <p><strong><span>Macro:</span></strong></p> <ul> <li><span>The Bank of England MPC once again opted to stand pat on rates at 5.25%, however the vote split shifted dovish. Two of the members, Haskel and Mann, moved into the unchanged camp from voting for rate hikes earlier, leading to an 8-1 split with Dhingra the lone dissenter in opting for a rate cut. Market has increased the odds of a June rate cut now to 77% from 58% earlier. </span></li> <li><span>The Swiss National Bank delivered a surprise rate cut of 25bps, kickstarting the G10 easing cycle and putting pressure on the Fed, ECB and BOE to start cutting rates by mid-year. Concerns over the currency was the primary catalyst for SNB, and as we have highlighted before, the next SNB meeting was only after the Fed and the ECB. </span></li> <li><span>US S&amp;P Flash PMI composite reading for March fell to 52.2 from 52.5 with divergence between services and manufacturing. The manufacturing sector was the strong spot, with the PMI seeing a surprise rise to 52.5 from 52.2 (exp. 51.7), while services fell more than expected to 51.7 from 52.3 (exp. 52.0). On the other side of the pond, Eurozone PMIs indicated weakness in manufacturing while services PMI lifted higher. </span></li> <li><span>US Jobless claims for the week that coincides with the NFP survey window, eased slightly to 210k from an upwardly revised 212k, beneath expectations of 215k, a level that is seen consistent with a tight labour market.</span></li> <li><span>Japan&rsquo;s headline CPI for February rose to 2.8% YoY from 2.2% in January, but came in below 2.9% expected. Core CPI rose to 2.8% as expected from 2.0% previously but core-core measures eased to 3.2% YoY, a notch lower than 3.3% expected, from 3.5% YoY in January. Focus today will be on the second tally of wage negotiation results. </span></li> </ul> <p><strong><span>Macro events:</span></strong><span>&nbsp;Japan's Rengo (labour union) 2nd Pay Tally, UK Retail Sales (Feb), German Ifo Survey (Mar)</span></p> <p><strong><span>Earnings:</span></strong><span>&nbsp;China Shenhua Energy, Meituan, Zijin Mining Group, Yihai Kerry Arawana, CMOC Group, China Petroleum &amp; Chemical</span></p> <p><strong><span>In the news:</span></strong></p> <ul> <li><span>Apple Loses $113 Billion in Value After Regulators Close In (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-21/apple-stock-115-billion-in-market-value-wiped-as-regulators-close-in?srnd=markets-vp">Bloomberg</a>) </span></li> <li><span>FedEx tightens 2024 profit forecast on cost cuts, shares jump 13% (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/fedex-raises-2024-profit-forecast-cost-cuts-2024-03-21/">Reuters</a>)</span></li> <li><span>As Nike bleeds market share, investors worry over relevance (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/nike-its-gotta-be-shoes-could-be-thing-past-2024-03-21/">Reuters</a>)</span></li> <li><span>Xi to Meet With US Executives in Beijing Next Week, WSJ Says (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-21/xi-to-meet-with-us-executives-in-beijing-next-week-wsj-says?srnd=homepage-asia">Bloomberg</a>)</span></li> <li><span>Reddit Soars 48% in Debut as AI Pitch Gets Warm Reception (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-21/reddit-climbs-38-after-raising-748-million-in-top-priced-ipo?srnd=markets-vp">Bloomberg</a>)</span></li> <li><span>Bitcoin Set for One of Worst Weeks in 2024 as ETF Demand Falters (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-21/bitcoin-on-track-for-worst-week-in-months-as-etf-demand-falters?srnd=markets-vp">Bloomberg</a>) </span></li> </ul> <p><span>&nbsp;</span></p> <p><span>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo&rsquo;s </span><span><a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/calendar__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!s9h6Lxrg5HnW-eaWk8tithFc-W0n--QMbcd4gCbGcsfsr8F4qW3WsLXo8BbCgDcDp3oD1lF8AZcy_oIvBlBzWQ$"><span>calendar.</span></a></span></p> <p><span>For a global look at markets &ndash; go to </span><span><a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration?activetab=latest__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!s9h6Lxrg5HnW-eaWk8tithFc-W0n--QMbcd4gCbGcsfsr8F4qW3WsLXo8BbCgDcDp3oD1lF8AZcy_oJJtW5lSw$"><span>Inspiration</span></a></span></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/authors/charu-chanana"><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/charu-chanana-400x400.png?mw=48" alt="Charu Chanana" /><div>Charu Chanana</div><div>Head of FX Strategy</div><div>Saxo Markets</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Macro FX</span> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>United States</span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span></div>Fri, 22 Mar 2024 00:30:00 Z2024-03-22T00:33:23Z{5EB5494D-6C18-4ACE-97C1-3B56A638824B}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/bonds/fomc-bond-takeaway-beware-of-ultra-long-duration-21032024Althea Spinozziproduct-bondsGovernment bondBondBond fundHigh yield bondsZero bondsubject-is/fin.corpbondsubject-is/fin.stpbondIncome investor – BondsBond SectorsAdvanced ordersThought StartersWeekly NewsletterFOMC bond takeaway: beware of ultra-long duration.<div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Summary:</span></strong></h3> <ul> <li><span>Summary of Economic Projections: upward revisions in growth and long-run rates are bearish for long-term Treasuries.</span></li> <li><span>Quantitative Tightening tapering needs to be implemented before June, as the runoff of T-bills accelerates in summer. The Fed will likely opt for a reverse "operation twist" rather than simple tapering, putting pressure on long-term yields.</span></li> <li><span>The Fed risks losing its credibility. If inflation continues to surprise to the upside, but the central banks stick with rate cuts, bond vigilantes might return claiming a higher term premium.</span></li> <li><span>Since the beginning of March,&nbsp;the iShares 20+ year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) saw the largest outflows since January 2022, showing that investors are preparing for another bullish year for risky assets.</span></li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Takeaways for the bond market: beware of long duration.</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Yesterday's FOMC meeting was key for bond markets because it strengthened the idea of a soft landing. This is good for risky assets but bearish for bonds carrying high duration because:</span></p> <ol> <li><span><strong>With a higher long-run rate, long-term yields will price over a higher base</strong></span><span>. Every time there is a recession scare, ten-year yields drop below 4% because bond markets envision the Federal Reserve cutting earlier and faster than expected toward their long-run rate. Considering that historically, 10-year US Treasury yields paid between 100bps to 150bps over the Fed Fund rate, that means that if the Fed sees equilibrium at 2.5%, the 10-year yields should fall between 3.5% to 4%. As the long-run rate rises, an equilibrium for the 10-year year yields moves higher.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Without a recession, markets will rotate from safe to risky assets. </span></strong><span>Growth is expected above trend for the next three years, so stocks will become more appetible than bonds as they should provide higher returns. That's bearish for US Treasuries, which carry a long duration.</span></li> <li><strong><span>Quantitative Tightening tapering targets a more significant reduction in the balance sheet over time. </span></strong><span>Powell said at the press conference that QT tapering is coming soon, and as we have outlined in preview research, it needs to arrive by June, as from then on, the runoff of T-bills will accelerate weighting on money markets. The Fed is likely looking to do a "reverse operation twist" aimed at disinvesting actively long-term US Treasuries and Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) to increase their share in T-Bills. For more on the topic, click </span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/bonds/quantitative-tightening-or-operation-twist-is-coming-up-what-are-the-implications-for-bonds-05032024"><span>here</span></a><span>.</span></li> </ol> <p><span>We, therefore, continue to favor the front part of the yield curve for up to 5 years. The 10-year tenor offers an appealing risk-reward ratio in a buy-and-hold diversified portfolio, although the yield might rise. We are cautious of the ultra-long part of the yield curve as the macro-economic backdrop calls for a steeper curve and high long-term yields.</span></p> <p><span>Despite the long part of the US Treasury yield curve not reacting, it's important to note that market sentiment is changing fast. Since the beginning of the month, TLT, the iShares 20+ year Treasury Bond ETF, has seen the largest outflow since January 2022.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/21_03_2024_alts1.svg"/></div><div class="rte--output">Source: Bloomberg.</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Key changes to the Summary of Economic Projections:</span></strong></h3> <ol> <li><strong><span class="underline; ">Growth was revised upward</span></strong><span> for 2024-25-26, reinforcing the idea of a soft landing. It's key to note that the Federal Reserve is more sanguine about the economy than markets. Indeed, SEP GDP for this year matches the market consensus of 2.1%, but it exceeds the market consensus for 2025, when the market expects the economy to grow only by 1.7% and the SEP by 2%.</span></li> <li><strong><span class="underline; ">The labor market is expected to remain strong</span></strong><span>. Unemployment was revised downward for 2024-25-25, matching economists&rsquo; consensus, and expected to never rise above 4.2%</span></li> <li><strong><span class="underline; ">Inflation will remain sticky for longer</span></strong><span>. Core PCE was revised upwards from 2.4% to 2.6% for 2024, exceeding market expectations.</span></li> <li><strong><span class="underline; ">The dot plot shows one less rate cut in 2025-26 and a higher long-run rate</span></strong><span>. Interestingly, even if growth and core PCE are expected to remain elevated, the Fed is still looking to cut rates three times this year.</span></li> </ol></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/21_03_2024_alts2.png"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>FOMC press conference: focus on quantitative tightening.</span></strong></h3> <p><span>The Fed press conference was notably dovish, with Powell dismissing the upside surprise in inflation for January and February and highlighting that labor market weakening could warrant a policy response. Powell also mentioned that a decision about QT will be made soon, which might imply a greater balance sheet reduction over time. For our take on it, click </span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/bonds/quantitative-tightening-or-operation-twist-is-coming-up-what-are-the-implications-for-bonds-05032024"><span>here</span></a><span>.</span></p> <p><span>The bond market reacted with a twist, steepening the yield curve. Two-year yields dropped by -8bps, closing the day at 4.6%, ten-year yields dropped by -2bps to 4.37%, but 30-year yields closed the day 2.5bps higher at 4.45%. We expect the twist steepening to continue in the next few weeks.</span></p> <p><span>&nbsp;</span></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3><span>Other recent Fixed Income articles:</span></h3> 18-Mar <a href="https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/bonds/bank-of-england-preview-slight-dovish-shift-in-the-mpc-amid-rapid-disinflationary-trends-18032024">Bank of England Preview: slight dovish shift in the MPC amid disinflationary trends.</a><br /> 18-Mar <a href="https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/bonds/fomc-preview-dot-plot-and-quantitative-tightening-in-focus-18032024">FOMC Preview: dot plot and quantitative tightening in focus.</a><br /> 12-Mar&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/bonds/us-treasury-auctions-on-the-back-of-the-us-cpi-might-offer-critical-insights-to-investors-12032024">US Treasury auctions on the back of the US CPI might offer critical insights to investors.</a><br /> 07-Mar&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/bonds/the-debt-management-office--gilts-sales-matter-more-than-the-spring-budget-07032024">The Debt Management Office's Gilts Sales Matter More Than The Spring Budget.</a><br /> 05-Mar&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/bonds/quantitative-tightening-or-operation-twist-is-coming-up-what-are-the-implications-for-bonds-05032024">"Quantitative Tightening" or "Operation Twist" is coming up. What are the implications for bonds?</a><br /> 01-Mar&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/bonds/slower-than-expected-disinflation-creates-a-floor-for-bond-yields-01032024">The bond weekly wrap: slower than expected disinflation creates a floor for bond yields.</a><br /> 29-Feb&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/bonds/ecb-preview-29022024">ECB preview: European sovereign bond yields are likely to remain rangebound until the first rate cut.</a><br /> 27-Feb&nbsp;<span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/article/b4ecb97c-6dc1-4c15-ab40-a57ef9036191">Defense bonds: risks and opportunities amid an uncertain geopolitical and macroeconomic environment.</a></span><br /> 23-Feb&nbsp;<a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/article/796449b0-c5fa-413b-980b-a176d33f0d97">Two-year US Treasury notes offer an appealing entry point.</a><br /> 21-Feb&nbsp;<a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/article/ceb49555-dfa8-46d0-b0b7-5b5ce22b33db">Four reasons why the ECB keeps calm and cuts later.</a><br /> <p>14 Feb&nbsp;<a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/article/007bdb09-e24b-4002-a4c9-07361cd8ef2c">Higher CPI shows that rates volatility will remain elevated.<br /> </a><span>12 Feb&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/article/bb2d9827-f97b-4d22-96eb-6c5e04bb2b41">Ultra-long sovereign issuance draws buy-the-dip demand but stakes are high.<br /> </a><span>06 Feb&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/article/77b7d067-aacd-420d-9f26-c2a55cc775c5">Technical Update - US 10-year Treasury yields resuming uptrend? US Treasury and Euro Bund futures testing key supports<br /> </a><span>05 Feb&nbsp;&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/article/6b1f1764-a321-4a16-96b2-fbdf1dca0763">The upcoming 30-year US Treasury auction might rattle markets<br /> </a></span><span>30 Jan&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/article/9399117e-63d1-4489-bb4b-7adefcce021d">BOE preview: BoE hold unlikely to last as inflation plummets<br /> </a></span><span>29 Jan&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/article/fe3899cd-85f8-41ef-9a2f-30d55e358f0d">FOMC preview: the Fed might be on hold, but easing is inevitable.<br /> </a><span>26 Jan&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/article/68c89164-3232-47bf-b949-3d2720513e75">The ECB holds rates: is the bond rally sustainable?<br /> </a><span>18 Jan&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/article/e5bb87f2-0995-494c-b49a-862dc31f1d30">The most infamous bond trade: the Austria century bond.<br /> </a><span>16 Jan&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/article/3ed2e019-099f-4660-8512-038f3e387e25">European sovereigns: inflation, stagnation and the bumpy road to rate cuts in 2024.<br /> </a><span>10 Jan&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/article/9ee81c0e-88bb-4c88-a00d-d4028db514a3">US Treasuries: where do we go from here?<br /> </a><span>09 Jan&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/quarterly-outlook/bonds-on-everybody-lips-09012024">Quarterly Outlook: bonds on everybody&rsquo;s lips.</a></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/authors/althea-spinozzi"><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/althea-spinozzi-400x400.png?mw=48" alt="Althea Spinozzi" /><div>Althea Spinozzi</div><div>Head of Fixed Income Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government bond</span> <span>Bond</span> <span>Bond fund</span> <span>High yield bonds</span> <span>Zero bond</span> <span>Corporate Bonds</span> <span>Government Bonds</span> <span>Income investor – Bonds</span> <span>Bond Sectors</span> <span>Advanced orders</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span></div>Thu, 21 Mar 2024 13:30:00 Z2024-03-21T13:42:02Z{2E35DFA7-7BF0-4696-AF07-61EFCD30DDFD}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/forex/technical-analysis-usdchf-eurchf-shooting-higher-breaking-resistance-levels-21032024Kim Cramer Larssonproduct-forexTechnical analysiscurrency-chfforex-usdchfforex-eurchfTechnical Update - USDCHF and EURCHF propelling higher. EURCHF to reach par? <div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><ul> <li><span><strong>Third time is a charm. USDCHF broken above key resistance after two previous tries following the SNB's rate decision. 0.90-0.91 in the horizon, maybe even 0.92 level</strong></span><strong><br /> <br /> </strong></li> <li><span><strong>EURCHF's bullish move, marked by its break above significant technical levels, points to potential further upside. Could it move to par?</strong></span><br /> <br /> </li> </ul> <strong><span>USDCHF</span></strong><span> After being rejected yesterday at the resistance and 0.618 retracement at 0.89 USDCHF is propelling higher today following SNB rate decision.<br /> <br /> </span> <p>UDCHF is now seemingly headed towards the next significant resistance and 0.786 retracement at around 0.9050, with a potential spike to the 0.91 level also in sight.</p> <p>Should USDCHF close above 0.9050, it could signal further uptrend towards the 0.92 to 0.9245 range, with 0.9245 marking the peak of October 2022. <br /> The daily RSI's positive sentiment with no divergence, supports the likelihood of higher USDCHF levels.<br /> <br /> <span >On the weekly chart, the RSI is nearing the 60 mark, and a close above this level would confirm the bullish picture.<br /> <br /> Conversely, if USD/CHF retreats below 0.89, it would undermine the current bullish perspective</span></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong>EURCHF</strong> is experiencing a significant bullish movement, currently testing the resistance at around 0.9775 after surpassing a minor resistance at 0.97.<br /> <br /> This bullish move follows the pair's break above a falling trendline that dates back to January 2022 and its break back above the 200 Daily Moving Average, signaling a strong upward momentum.</p> <p>On the weekly chart, EURCHF has reached the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential area for a short-term correction before the likelihood of further upward movement. <br /> Should EURCHF close above the weekly Ichimoku Cloud (Shaeded area), it could set the stage for a rise to the 0.786 retracement at 0.9917, though a minor pullback might occur in the short term.</p> <p>Both daily and weekly RSIs are reflecting positive sentiment with no divergence, suggesting that higher levels for EUR/CHF could be on the horizon<br /> However, if the pair retreats below 0.97, it could negate this bullish outlook</p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/authors/kim-cramer-larsson"><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/kim-cramer-larsson-400x400.png?mw=48" alt="Kim Cramer Larsson" /><div>Kim Cramer Larsson</div><div>Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>Technical analysis</span> <span>CHF</span> <span>USDCHF</span> <span>EURCHF</span></div>Thu, 21 Mar 2024 13:13:07 Z2024-03-21T14:35:43Z{9A1AA24A-8D55-4900-835B-D0D45D521621}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/technical-analysis-sp500-cancels-reversal-pattern-nasdaq-likely-to-21032024Kim Cramer Larssonproduct-equitiesTechnical analysisS P 500 indexUS500editorial-nasdaqindexcfd-nas100.iTechnical Update - SP 500 cancelling reversal pattern. Nasdaq 100 likely to follow. New all-time highs in the cards<div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><ul> <li><span><strong>The S&amp;P 500's (and US500) new peak and the outlook on the 0.618 extension at 5,296 highlight its bullish momentum.</strong></span></li> <li><strong><span>The Nasdaq 100's ability to hold above 17,808 (17,780 on USNAS100 cfd) and its potential challenge to the 18,417 level are key factors in its next potential moves.</span></strong></li> </ul> <p> <br /> The <strong>S&amp;P 500 </strong>has invalidated its earlier top and reversal pattern by closing at a new high yesterday. This development followed the index's rebound from its steep rising trend line, with the S&amp;P 500 now mirroring the length of its rise from October 2022 through July 2023, as depicted on the weekly chart.</p> <p>Yesterday's higher close opens the door to more upside potential, with the next significant level being the 0.618 Fibonacci extension at 5,296, identified as a potential target derived from the "Cup with Handle" pattern. <br /> A daily RSI close above its upper falling trendline would lend additional support to this bullish scenario.</p> <p>No divergence on the weekly RSI suggests that the index could achieve even higher levels<br /> <br /> A close below 5,057 would signal a reversal of the current bullish trend</p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/sp500-d-2103.png"/></div><div class="rte--output">Source all charts and data: Saxo Group</div><br/><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/sp500-w-2103.png"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong><span>US500</span></strong><span> cfd: At the time of writing the US500 is trading higher testing all-time highs and the RSI is above its falling trendline. If closing above the falling trendline it it will be a strong&nbsp; indication of higher US500 levels. Key strong support at 5,048.&nbsp;&nbsp;</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/us500-d-2103.png"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p>The <strong>Nasdaq 100 Index&nbsp;</strong>has tested and maintained the crucial support level of 17,808 on two occasions, a bullish indicator.<br /> Following these tests, the index rebounded, closing back above its rising trendline. <br /> <br /> Although the Bearish Engulfing top and reversal pattern remains in play, it may be contested in today's session. A close above 18,417 would invalidate this pattern, setting the stage for the index to target higher levels, potentially reaching 18,812 to 19,048 in the short term.</p> <p>Despite significant divergence in the RSI (Relative Strength Index), a close above the 60 threshold would bolster the case for further upside.<br /> <br /> On the weekly chart, the Nasdaq 100 met resistance at the 0.786 Fibonacci extension at 18,374, but a new high could open the path towards 19,550.</p> <p>Conversely, a daily close below 17,808 will reverse the bullish trend</p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/nasdaq100-d-2103.png"/></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/nasdaq100-w-2103.png"/></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/usnas100-d-2103.png"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong><span>USNAS100 cfd </span></strong><span>is trading higher pre-market testing all-time highs indicating the top and reversal on the Cash Index Nasdaq 100 is likely to be invalidated<br /> If that scenario plays out there is short-term upside potential to 18,822-19,072</span></p> <p><span >Key strong support at around 17,780. A close below is likely fueling a sell-off</span></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/authors/kim-cramer-larsson"><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/kim-cramer-larsson-400x400.png?mw=48" alt="Kim Cramer Larsson" /><div>Kim Cramer Larsson</div><div>Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Technical analysis</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>US500</span> <span>Nasdaq</span> <span>USNAS100.I</span></div>Thu, 21 Mar 2024 11:49:50 Z2024-03-21T13:16:52Z{E9B1494E-8503-463D-AE15-F9B16ACA6619}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/gold-is-ready-to-rise-21032024Ole Hansenproduct-commoditiesHighlighted articlescommodity-goldGold is ready to rise<div class="article-excerpt">Will 2024 be the year of the metals? Gold has just reached a fresh record high driven by strong retail demand and record central bank buying. With the prospect for rate cuts in the US later this year, further strength could lie ahead.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3>How to invest/trade gold:</h3> <p><span><strong>Physical gold</strong></span><strong>:</strong> Purchasing physical gold in the form of jewellery, coins, or bars provides direct exposure to the metal but involves considerations such as secure storage, insurance, and higher trading costs.</p> <p><span><strong>Gold ETFs/ETCs</strong></span>: Exchange-traded funds or commodities offer a convenient way to invest in gold without holding physical metal. These products track gold prices closely and can be traded easily on exchanges.<br /> <br /> <span><strong>Gold mining stocks/ETFs:&nbsp;</strong></span>Investing in gold mining companies or ETFs that hold a basket of mining stocks provides exposure to gold prices. However, these investments carry operational risks and may exhibit higher volatility compared to gold itself.&nbsp;<span>Since 2022, when the US Federal Reserve began hiking rates to curb soaring inflation, gold miners have struggled relative to the price of gold amid rising costs towards financing, labour, and materials. The weakness seen during the past few months has left the sector increasingly undervalued relative to the gold prices hitting fresh record closing highs.</span><span >&nbsp;</span></p> <h3>Which factors drive gold?</h3> <p><span><strong>Monetary policy</strong></span><strong>:</strong> The policies of the US Federal Reserve, including interest rates and inflation targets, significantly influence gold prices. As gold does not yield interest, rising interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, often leading asset managers to reduce their exposure to real assets.</p> <p><span><strong>Currency fluctuations</strong></span><strong>: </strong>Gold prices typically exhibit an inverse relationship with the value of the US dollar. A weaker dollar tends to drive gold prices higher, and conversely, a stronger dollar can suppress gold prices.</p> <p><span><strong>Real bond yields</strong></span><strong>: </strong>Gold prices often move inversely to interest rates, as rising rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like gold. Long-term investors monitor developments in US real yields, which represent the yield on a bond investment adjusted for expected inflation.</p> <p><span><strong>Central bank demand</strong></span><strong>:</strong> Several central banks have been acquiring gold in recent years to diversify their reserves away from heavy reliance on the dollar. Additionally, gold's lack of credit or counterpart risk makes it a trusted reserve asset globally.</p> <p><span><strong>Geopolitical tensions</strong></span><strong>: </strong>Gold is considered a safe-haven asset, sought by investors during times of geopolitical uncertainty or crisis due to its intrinsic value and perceived stability.</p> <p><span><strong>Speculative activity</strong></span><strong>: </strong>Hedge funds and speculators often anticipate and amplify price movements in gold markets based on fundamental and momentum-driven factors.</p></div></div><div class="article-video"><iframe title="" src="//saxobank.23video.com/13846859.ihtml/player.html?source=embed&photo_id=95589257"></iframe></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen"><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/ole-hansen-400x400.png?mw=48" alt="Ole Hansen" /><div>Ole Hansen</div><div>Head of Commodity Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Gold</span></div>Thu, 21 Mar 2024 11:41:00 Z2024-03-21T12:54:01Z{2A456DEE-CDBF-43E0-9F23-B71E48A199E6}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/technical-analysis-gold-resuming-uptrend-silver-tagging-along-21032024Kim Cramer Larssonproduct-commoditiesTechnical analysiscommodity-goldcommodity-silverBarrick Gold Corpforex-xauusdXAGUSDTechnical Update - Gold resuming uptrend, to 2,300? Silver tagging along, key resistance at 26<div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><ul> <li><strong><span>Gold (XAUUSD) has shown a smaller correction than expected, resuming its uptrend after the recent Federal Reserve announcement. With various Fibonacci projections suggesting potential targets, the metal's price could see further increases in both the short and medium term</span></strong> <p><strong><span>&nbsp;</span></strong></p> </li> <li><strong><span>Silver's approach towards the 26.00-26.75 resistance area is a key development to watch</span></strong></li> </ul> <p><strong>Gold (XAUUSD)</strong> experienced a lesser correction than anticipated, swiftly resuming its bullish trend following the Federal Reserve's latest announcement. <br /> This morning, gold nearly reached the 1.618 Fibonacci projection of the correction at 2,225. In the short term, a move towards the 2.00 projection of the correction at 2,244 and the 1.764 projection of the December-February range at 2,256 appears probable</p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/gold-d-2103.png"/></div><div class="rte--output">Source all charts and data: Saxo Group</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong>Gold and Fibonacci&nbsp;<br /> </strong>Diving deeper into Fibonacci analysis (sorry for getting a bit technical now going full Fibonacci nerdy - Fibonacci Extension coloured red and illustrated by the balck arrows).), the 0.236 extension aligns with the previous peak at 2,195, and the 0.382 extension is close to the 1.618 projection of the correction at 2,226.<br /> The 0.618 Fibonacci extension suggests a potential target of 2,276&nbsp;</p> <p>The RSI's positive sentiment underpins the bullish trend, which could propel gold towards 2,300 in the medium term. Specific targets include the 0.786 extension at 2,311 and the 1.476 projection at 2,287 on the weekly chart.</p> <p>To reverse this bullish outlook, gold would need to close below 2,146.</p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/gold-d-2103-ext.png"/></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/gold-w-2103.png"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong>Silver (XAGUSD)</strong> is on an bullish trend, aiming for a substantial resistance area between 26.00 and 26.75. Despite this bullish movement, silver is trailing behind gold, and the current flatness of the RSI indicator does not provide a strong conviction for the trend's continuation. Investors should brace for a potential correction from around the 26.00 resistance level.</p> <p>A daily close below 24.60 would challenge the bullish perspective, indicating a possible shift in the market sentiment or trend.</p> <p>Conversely, a weekly close above the 26.00 mark would affirm a bullish medium-term trend for silver, suggesting further upside potential</p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/silver-d-2103.png"/></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/silver-w-2103.png"/></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/authors/kim-cramer-larsson"><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/kim-cramer-larsson-400x400.png?mw=48" alt="Kim Cramer Larsson" /><div>Kim Cramer Larsson</div><div>Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>Technical analysis</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Silver</span> <span>Barrick Gold Corp.</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span></div>Thu, 21 Mar 2024 09:45:30 Z2024-03-21T11:13:46Z{922E5CCD-1B27-4523-82BB-BBC19FDF5F87}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/macro/global-market-quick-take-europe-21-march-2024-21032024Saxo Strategy Teamproduct-macroproduct-equitiesproduct-commoditiesproduct-bondsproduct-forexThought StartersAdvanced ordersplace-lc/cnplace-lr/eurmacro-employmentplace-lc/usplace-lc/gbsubject-is/pol.euforex-xauusdcurrency-usdforex-eurusdXAGUSDforex-usdcadforex-usdjpysector-gics-1010sector-TechnologyS P 500 indexQuick TakeWeekly NewsletterGlobal Market Quick Take: Europe – 21 March 2024<div class="article-excerpt">Wall Street hit fresh record highs on Wednesday with the broader indices outperforming after Chair Powell downplayed inflation concerns, keeping three rate cuts in Fed’s dot plot for 2024. </div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><em><span>The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.</span></em></p> <p><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong><span>US stock indices closed at record highs with the Fed seen unnerved by the recent pickup in inflation and reaffirming its 2024 projection of three rate cuts. The small-cap focused Russell 2000 was up nearly 2% and outperformed the S&amp;P 500 and NASDAQ 100 which were up 0.9% and 1.2% respectively, and futures were seen ticking higher in Asia. Semiconductor stock Micron was up 15% in after-hours on better-than-expected earnings, likely further fueling the AI momentum. </span></p> <p><strong><span>FX</span></strong><span>: The dollar plunged following the dovish surprise from Chair Powell at the Fed meeting. USDJPY printed fresh highs since November at 151.82 before Nikkei report sparked some concerns over further BOJ tightening and brought the pair lower to sub-151 handle. USDCHF saw a minor break of 0.89 handle but reversed to 0.8850 amid the dollar weakness, while EURCHF continued its ascent towards 0.97 with SNB meeting ahead. GBPUSD also in focus after it took a look below 1.27 on CPI but rebounded to 1.28 handle on dollar weakness and equity strength overnight. BOE meeting today is key to assess whether the hawkish bias drops. EURUSD heading for a test of 1.0940 while AUDUSD is back to test a break above 0.66.</span><span ></span></p> <p><strong><span>Commodities:</span></strong><span> Fed Chair Powell&rsquo;s dovish stance and growing support within the FOMC for three rate cuts this year lifted sentiment across the commodity space, with the drop in Treasury yields and the dollar supporting strong rally in precious metals, but while gold trades at a fresh record above $2200, silver has yet to take out last year's highs just above $26. </span><span>There was some profit-taking in crude oil, before the Powell boost and a larger-than-expected drop in US crude and gasoline stocks saw prices move higher. Copper also edged lower in the session, before bouncing strongly during today&rsquo;s Asian session.</span><strong ></strong></p> <p><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong><span> Yesterday&rsquo;s FOMC meeting strengthened policy members&rsquo; soft-landing message. The Summary of Economic Projections showed expected more robust growth, labor market and higher core PCE in 2024. The Dot plot still shows three rate cuts in 2024, but a rate cut was removed from 2025, and the long-term run rate was revised upward to 2.6% from 2.5%. The Fed press conference was dovish, with Powell dismissing the upside surprise in inflation for January and February and highlighting that labor market weakening could warrant a policy response. Powell also mentioned that a decision about QT would be taken soon, and it might imply a more significant reduction of the balance sheet over time. The bond market reacted with a twist, steepening the yield curve. Two-year yields dropped by -8bps, closing the day at 4.6%; ten-year yields dropped by -2bps to 4.37%, but 30-year yields closed the day by 2.5bps higher at 4.45%. We expect the yield curve to continue to twist-steepen, as the front part of the yield curve will follow monetary policy. In contrast, the long part of the yield curve will need to be repriced over a higher long-run rate, considering higher growth and stickier inflation. We, therefore, continue to favor the front part of the yield curve up to 5 years, the 10-year US Treasury, for the appealing risk-reward ratio it brings to a diversified portfolio. In contrast, we continue to be cautious about the ultra-long part of the yield curve (TLT:xnas). For a preview of Thursday's upcoming BOE monetary policy meeting, click </span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/bonds/bank-of-england-preview-slight-dovish-shift-in-the-mpc-amid-rapid-disinflationary-trends-18032024">here</a></span><span>.</span></p> <p><strong >Macro: </strong><span class="underline; ">Fed:</span><span > Rates were left unchanged at 5.25-5.50% as expected, with the statement seeing no major changes.</span></p> <ul> <li><span>The 2024 dot plot also continued to show 3 rate cuts as against some fears of that being reduced to 2. There are now 9 members that have penciled in end-2024 rate at 4.6% vs. 6 in December, signaling greater confidence in three rate cuts this year.</span></li> <li><span>Key to note that 2025, 2026, and long run ("neutral") dots were all nudged higher to 3.9%, 3.1%, and 2.6%, respectively, from 3.6%, 2.9%, and 2.5% which is likely to kick off a debate on the magnitude of cuts in this cycle, but that doesn&rsquo;t unnerve the markets right away.</span></li> <li><span>Powell seemed to be unconcerned by the recent hot inflation prints and reiterated that the policy rate is likely at its peak and it will likely be appropriate to dial back rates at some time this year. This was a dovish signal to markets and the market expectation of a June rate cut is back to over 80%.</span></li> </ul> <p><strong><span>UK CPI came in below expectation</span></strong><span>s with headline CPI at 0.6% MoM and 3.4% YoY (vs. 0.7% and 3.5% expected respectively). Core CPI eased from 5.1% YoY in January to 4.5% YoY in February, and focus turns to any dovish hints from the BOE meeting today. Read this article for </span><span><a href="https://social.saxo/mbm1y9u?uuid=gkWPQWK"><strong><span>Saxo&rsquo;s BOE preview</span></strong></a></span><span>. <strong>A Nikkei report overnight </strong>signaled that the BOJ may be weighing its next rate hike for July or October. This was a contrast to signals from BOJ Governor Ueda at the meeting this week, and focus will be on CPI data due on Friday. <strong><span class="underline; ">SNB Preview</span>:</strong> We discussed the potential for a dovish surprise from the SNB in the </span><span><a href="https://social.saxo/eglpsrm?uuid=gkWPQWK"><strong><span>Macro podcast</span></strong></a></span><span> this week. Market is only expecting 37% odds of a rate cut today, but SNB is not very orthodox and could move ahead of the Fed and the ECB. Their strategy has shifted from defending a strong CHF to allowing controlled weakening for "normalization." Even if a rate cut is avoided, a dovish tone is likely that can boost the best for a 50bps rate cut in June.</span><strong ></strong></p> <p><strong><span>Technical analysis highlights: Dow Jones and S&amp;P 500 </span></strong><span>cancelled top and reversal pattern. S&amp;P now looking at 5,300. <strong>Nasdaq 100</strong> top and reversal pattern still intact, cancelled if closing above 18,417, its likely.&nbsp;</span><strong><span>EURUSD </span></strong><span>after testing twice strong bounce from 1.0838, likely to test 1.0970 resist and resume uptrend. <strong>GBPUSD </strong>bounced from support at 1.2660 uptrend resumed with potential to 1.30. <strong>USDJPY </strong>lost steam just below 2022 peak at 151.95, expect range bound. <strong>EURJPY </strong>reached its potential target at 165, expect setback. <strong>GBPJPY </strong>uptrend hit spot on 1.618 projection at 193.40, expect setback. <strong>AUDJPY </strong>likely to reach 100.40. <strong>USDCHF </strong>failed to close above 0.89. <strong>Gold </strong>resumed uptrend upside potential to 2.260. <strong>Silver </strong>likely to reach 26.00. <strong>US 10-year T-yields</strong> rejected at 4.35. Could slide back to 4.20</span><span ></span></p> <p><strong><span>Volatility:</span></strong><span> </span><span>Yesterday, the VIX notably decreased to $13.04 (-0.78 | -5.64%), exiting a rising channel in response to the Federal Reserve's comments, perceived as dovish. This shift suggests a potential easing of market volatility in the near term. VIX futures reflect this sentiment, dropping to 14.400 (-0.165 | -1.13%). The positive reaction extended overnight into futures, with S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures climbing to 5309.50 (+22.75 | +0.43%) and 18626.25 (+146.50 | +0.80%), indicating investor optimism. </span><span>Wednesday's trading was dominated by tech and AI, with the most activity seen in options for TSLA, NVDA, AMD, AAPL, MARA, MU, PDD, INTC, META, and AMZN.</span><span ></span></p> <p><strong><span>In the news: </span></strong><span>Fed Officials Still See Three Interest-Rate Cuts This Year, Buoying Stocks </span><span><a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-officials-still-see-three-cuts-this-year-0b039532?mod=hp_lead_pos1"><span>(WSJ)</span></a></span><span>,<strong> </strong></span><span>Reddit prices IPO at $34 per share in first major social media offering since 2019 (</span><span><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/20/reddit-prices-ipo-at-34-per-share-sources-say.html"><strong><span>CNBC</span></strong></a></span><span>), Micron Soars After AI Growth Helps Bolster Revenue Forecast (</span><span><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-20/micron-soars-after-ai-opportunity-helps-bolster-revenue-forecast?srnd=markets-vp"><strong><span>Bloomberg</span></strong></a></span><span>), Fed's Powell says balance sheet drawdown taper coming soon (</span><span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-powell-says-balance-sheet-drawdown-taper-coming-soon-2024-03-20/"><strong><span>Reuters</span></strong></a></span><span>), Most Japan firms expect BOJ to increase rates towards 0.25% this year (</span><span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/most-japan-firms-expect-boj-increase-rates-towards-025-this-year-2024-03-20/"><strong><span>Reuters</span></strong></a></span><span>), Intel latest to get US funds for chips, more grants and loans planned (Reuters)</span><strong ></strong></p> <p><strong><span>Macro events (all times are GMT):</span></strong><span> &nbsp;Manufacturing and Services March PMI from France (0715) exp. 47.5 &amp; 48.8, Germany (0730) exp. 43 &amp; 48.8, Eurozone (0800) exp 47 &amp; 50.5 vs 46.5 &amp; 50.2 prior, and UK (0830) exp. 47.8 &amp; 53.8 vs 47.5 &amp; 53.8 prior. Norges Bank rate decision (0800), Bank of England rate decision (1100), US Phili Fed Business outlook (Mar), exp &ndash;2.8 vs 5.2 prior (1130), US Initial Jobless claims, exp. 213k vs 209k (1130), EIA Weekly natural gas storage change, exp. +5 bcf vs &ndash;9 bcf prior (1330)</span><span ></span></p> <p><strong><span>Earnings events: </span></strong><span>China Mobile, CNOOC, Ping An Insurance Group, Enel, China CITIC Bank, BMW, Nike, FedEx, Lululemon Atheletica, Accenture, Next, Darden Restaurants, FactSet</span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>Friday:</span></strong><span> China Shenhua Energy, Meituan, Zijin Mining Group, Yihai Kerry Arawana, CMOC Group, China Petroleum &amp; Chemical</span></li> </ul> <p><span >For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo&rsquo;s </span><span ><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar">calendar</a></span></p></div></div><div><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/saxo-be-invested.png?mw=48" alt="Saxo Strategy Team" /><div>Saxo Strategy Team</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>China</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span>United States</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>USDCAD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy (Sector)</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span></div>Thu, 21 Mar 2024 07:25:00 Z2024-03-21T07:28:00Z{BBE0DEBE-9576-47A8-9228-A1DD18F9259C}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/macro/global-market-quick-take-asia--march-21-2024-21032024Charu Chananaproduct-macroproduct-commoditiesproduct-forexproduct-macroMacro-FXmacro-central banksmacro-gdpmacro-indicesplace-lr/aspAPAC Market DigestFeatured Market Update APACAPACplace-lc/gbplace-lc/usplace-lc/auplace-lc/cncommodity-crude oilOilsector-Oil and Gasplace-lr/eurcurrency-usdforex-eurusdforex-usdjpyforex-audusdcurrency-gbpforex-gbpusdcommodity-goldFederal Reserveproduct-bondssubject-is/fin.stpbondproduct-equitiesforex-cadjpyforex-gbpjpyforex-chfjpyforex-audjpycurrency-jpyforex-eurjpyECBplace-lc/jpInflationcurrency-sekforex-eursekforex-noksekEURSEKforex-gbpcadforex-gbpchfforex-gbpaudforex-eurgbpEURGBPGBPUSDGBPJPYplace-lc/saforex-audnzdcurrency-audAUDUSDAUDJPYcurrency-nokforex-eurnokforex-usdnokEURNOKforex-xauusdXAUUSDXAGUSDXAGUSDDow Jones IndexGlobal Market Quick Take: Asia – March 21, 2024<div class="article-excerpt">Chair Powell downplayed inflation concerns, keeping three rate cuts in Fed’s dot plot for 2024. US stocks were boosted higher to a record close, with Russell outperforming the broader indices. AI momentum is likely to be fueled further with Micron’s strong beat on earnings.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong><span></span></strong><em >The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.&nbsp;</em></p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/21_qt.png"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong><span>Equities</span></strong><span>: US stock indices closed at record highs with the Fed seen unnerved by the recent pickup in inflation and reaffirming its 2024 projection of three rate cuts. The small-cap focused Russell 2000 was up nearly 2% and outperformed the S&amp;P 500 and NASDAQ 100 which were up 0.9% and 1.2% respectively, and futures were seen ticking higher in Asia. </span></p> <p><span>Semiconductor stock Micron was up 15% in after-hours on better-than-expected earnings, likely further fueling the AI momentum. Japanese stocks will be on watch today as they return after market holiday on Wednesday and react to ongoing AI momentum and yen weakness offset by Nikkei report signaling that more <a href="https://social.saxo/m9sssxx?uuid=l4UNAeM">BOJ rate hikes</a> may be likely. </span></p> <p><span>China&rsquo;s PDD holdings ADR surged 16% before retreating, on strong earnings results driven by its online marketplace Temu, as discussed in <a href="https://social.saxo/shqrd2x?uuid=l4UNAeM">this article</a>. Tencent ADR was also up over 2% as the Chinese internet giant announced increases in its buyback and dividends this year, even as gaming revenues missed expectations. </span></p> <p><span>Today&rsquo;s focus will be on earnings announcements from some of the big companies like Nike, Lululemon and Darden Restaurants. </span></p> <p><strong><span>FX:&nbsp;</span></strong><span>The dollar plunged following the dovish surprise from Chair Powell at the Fed meeting. DXY index dropped below 103.50, closing below the 100 DMA. USDJPY printed fresh highs since November at 151.82 before Nikkei report sparked some concerns over further BOJ tightening and brought the pair lower to sub-151 handle. USDCHF saw a minor break of 0.89 handle but reversed to 0.8850 amid the dollar weakness, while EURCHF continued its ascent towards 0.97 with SNB meeting ahead. GBPUSD also in focus after it took a look below 1.27 on CPI but rebounded to 1.28 handle on dollar weakness and equity strength overnight. BOE meeting today is key to assess whether the hawkish bias drops. EURUSD heading for a test of 1.0940 while AUDUSD is back to test a break above 0.66. </span></p> <p><strong><span>Commodities:&nbsp;</span></strong><span>There was some profit-taking in the commodities complex ahead of the Fed announcement. Crude oil was down over 1.5% but EIA inventory data signaled a larger-than-expected drop for US crude as well as gasoline. Fed Chair Powell&rsquo;s dovish bent also underpinned a recovery into the close of the US session. Copper also edged lower in the session, but gains were seen returning into Asia open with Fed&rsquo;s dot plot showing three rate cuts for 2024 helping to support the demand outlook. But Gold prices overtook the $2,200 handle, hitting all-time highs, as yields slipped. </span></p> <p><strong><span>Fixed income: </span></strong><span>Fed&rsquo;s affirmation of three rate cuts for this year signaled that Chair Powell is not concerned by the recent hot inflation prints. This saw Treasuries recover, led by the front-end. Two-year yields were down 8bps while 10-year yields were down only 2bps as long-run dots for median interest rates were raised. </span></p> <p><strong><span>Macro:</span></strong></p> <ul> <li><span class="underline; ">Fed:</span><span> Rates were left unchanged at 5.25-5.50% as expected, with the statement seeing no major changes. </span> <ul> <li><span>The 2024 dot plot also continued to show 3 rate cuts as against some fears of that being reduced to 2. There are now 9 members that have penciled in end-2024 rate at 4.6% vs. 6 in December, signaling greater confidence in three rate cuts this year.</span></li> <li><span>Key to note that 2025, 2026, and long run ("neutral") dots were all nudged higher to 3.9%, 3.1%, and 2.6%, respectively, from 3.6%, 2.9%, and 2.5% which is likely to kick off a debate on the magnitude of cuts in this cycle, but that doesn&rsquo;t unnerve the markets right away. </span></li> <li><span>The GDP median was hiked to 2.1% from 1.4% for 2024, with the 2025 and 2026 medians both nudged higher to 2% from 1.8% and 1.9%, respectively. The unemployment median was nudged lower to 4.0% from 4.1% for 2024, with the 2025 median unchanged at 4.0% and the 2026 down to 4.0% from 4.1%. Core PCE was hiked to 2.6% for 2024 from 2.4%, with the 2025 and 2026 medians unchanged at 2.2% and 2.0%, respectively.</span></li> <li><span>Powell seemed to be unconcerned by the recent hot inflation prints, and reiterated that the policy rate is likely at its peak and it will likely be appropriate to dial back rates at some time this year. This was a dovish signal to markets and the market expectation of a June rate cut is back to over 80%. </span></li> <li><span>FOMC participants also thought that it will be appropriate to slow the pace of balance sheet runoff "fairly soon."</span></li> </ul> </li> <li><span>UK CPI came in below expectations with headline CPI at 0.6% MoM and 3.4% YoY (vs. 0.7% and 3.5% expected respectively). Core CPI eased from 5.1% YoY in January to 4.5% YoY in February, and focus turns to any dovish hints from the BOE meeting today. Read this article for <a href="https://social.saxo/mbm1y9u?uuid=gkWPQWK">Saxo&rsquo;s BOE preview</a>. </span></li> <li><span>A Nikkei report overnight signaled that the BOJ may be weighing its next rate hike for July or October. This was a contrast to signals from BOJ Governor Ueda at the meeting this week, and focus will be on CPI data due on Friday. </span></li> <li><span class="underline; ">SNB Preview</span><span>: We discussed the potential for a dovish surprise from the SNB in the <a href="https://social.saxo/eglpsrm?uuid=gkWPQWK">Macro podcast</a> this week. Market is only expecting 37% odds of a rate cut today, but SNB is not very orthodox and could move ahead of the Fed and the ECB. Their strategy has shifted from defending a strong CHF to allowing controlled weakening for "normalization." Even if a rate cut is avoided, a dovish tone is likely that can boost the best for a 50bps rate cut in June. </span></li> </ul> <p><strong><span>Macro events:</span></strong><span>&nbsp;BoE Announcement, SNB Announcement, Norges Announcement, CBRT Announcement, European Council Meeting, EZ/UK/US Flash PMIs (Mar), US Philly Fed (Mar), New Zealand Trade Balance (Feb), Japan CPI (Feb)</span></p> <p><strong><span>Earnings:</span></strong><span>&nbsp;China Mobile, CNOOC, Ping An Insurance Group, Enel, China CITIC Bank, BMW, Nike, FedEx, Lululemon Atheletica, Accenture, Next, Darden Restaurants, FactSet</span></p> <p><strong><span>In the news:</span></strong></p> <ul> <li><span>Reddit prices IPO at $34 per share in first major social media offering since 2019 (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/20/reddit-prices-ipo-at-34-per-share-sources-say.html">CNBC</a>)</span></li> <li><span>Micron Soars After AI Growth Helps Bolster Revenue Forecast (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-20/micron-soars-after-ai-opportunity-helps-bolster-revenue-forecast?srnd=markets-vp">Bloomberg</a>)</span></li> <li><span>Fed's Powell says balance sheet drawdown taper coming soon (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-powell-says-balance-sheet-drawdown-taper-coming-soon-2024-03-20/">Reuters</a>)</span></li> <li><span>Most Japan firms expect BOJ to increase rates towards 0.25% this year (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/most-japan-firms-expect-boj-increase-rates-towards-025-this-year-2024-03-20/">Reuters</a>)</span></li> <li><span>Intel latest to get US funds for chips, more grants and loans planned (Reuters)</span></li> </ul> <p><span>&nbsp;</span></p> <p><span>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo&rsquo;s </span><span><a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/calendar__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!s9h6Lxrg5HnW-eaWk8tithFc-W0n--QMbcd4gCbGcsfsr8F4qW3WsLXo8BbCgDcDp3oD1lF8AZcy_oIvBlBzWQ$"><span>calendar.</span></a></span></p> <p><span>For a global look at markets &ndash; go to </span><span><a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration?activetab=latest__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!s9h6Lxrg5HnW-eaWk8tithFc-W0n--QMbcd4gCbGcsfsr8F4qW3WsLXo8BbCgDcDp3oD1lF8AZcy_oJJtW5lSw$"><span>Inspiration</span></a></span></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/authors/charu-chanana"><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/charu-chanana-400x400.png?mw=48" alt="Charu Chanana" /><div>Charu Chanana</div><div>Head of FX Strategy</div><div>Saxo Markets</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Macro FX</span> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>United States</span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span></div>Thu, 21 Mar 2024 00:30:00 Z2024-03-21T00:46:01Z{FD718401-C472-458D-9191-9C7C536B9F97}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/podcast/podcast-21-march-2024---thematic-20032024Saxo Market Callsaxostrats-podcastMacro-FXCurrencyproduct-macroproduct-forexforex-eurusdforex-usdjpyplace-lc/usplace-lc/cneditorial-nonfarm payrollsTheme: Japan's route to abolish negative interest rates<div class="article-excerpt">In today's thematic episode, Charu Chanana is in the studio with Søren Otto. They dive into the recent rate hike from the Bank of Japan. They put it into a historical context and discuss why it's significant. They also talk about, how it'll impact markets and what the path is from here.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p class="v2-p-l"><strong><iframe title="Theme: Japan's route to abolish negative interest rates" allowtransparency="true" height="150" width="100%" scrolling="no" data-name="pb-iframe-player" src="https://www.podbean.com/player-v2/?i=s55ji-15b3e53-pb&amp;from=pb6admin&amp;share=1&amp;download=1&amp;rtl=0&amp;fonts=Arial&amp;skin=60a0c8&amp;font-color=auto&amp;logo_link=episode_page&amp;btn-skin=ff6d00" loading="lazy"></iframe></strong></p> <p><span ><a href="https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/theme-japans-route-to-abolish-negative-interest-rates/?token=1bcf1c750701fa783274f380077ce42d">Listen to the full episode now</a> or follow&nbsp;Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app:</span></p> <p> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/saxo-bank-market-call/id1475783610?l=en" target="_blank"><img alt="Apple" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/images/logos/podcasts/apple.png" /></a> &nbsp; <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://open.spotify.com/show/0TQCo0xVyovEigewCbc9uo" target="_blank"><img alt="Spotify" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/images/logos/podcasts/spotify.png" /></a> &nbsp; <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://saxostrats.podbean.com/" target="_blank"><img alt="Podbean" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/images/logos/podcasts/podbean.png" /></a> &nbsp; &nbsp;</p> <div class="v2-mab50" > <div class="rte--output">If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at <em>marketcall@saxobank.com</em> and we'll look into it.</div> <div class="rte--output">&nbsp;</div> <div class="rte--output"><strong >Questions and comments, please!</strong></div> <div class="rte--output"><strong ></strong><span >We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podca</span><span >s</span><span >t team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at <em>marketcall@saxobank.com</em>.</span></div> </div></div></div><div><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/platform-social-sharing-images/smc_thumb_400x400.png?mw=48" alt="Saxo Market Call" /><div>Saxo Market Call</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/podcast">Podcast</a> <span>Macro FX</span> <span>Currency</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>United States</span> <span>China</span> <span>Nonfarm Payrolls</span></div>Wed, 20 Mar 2024 12:39:00 Z2024-03-20T13:41:25Z{DC492458-3FA6-406A-83E3-1B9A22B80FDC}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/technical-analysis-luxury-stocks-at-a-turning-point-kering-lvmh-and-richemont-20032024Kim Cramer Larssonproduct-equitiesTechnical analysiscompany-lvmhLVMH Moet Hennessy Louis VuittonKering SASMIcompany-the coca-colaCAC40Luxury GoodsTechnical Update - Luxury stocks at a turning point: Kering, LVMH and Richemont<div class="article-excerpt">Luxury goods companies are displaying signals of uptrend exhaustion and potential top and reversal patterns in their stock movements. <br><br>The recent profit warning issued by Kering, accompanied by a significant sell-off, might have a ripple effect across the luxury goods industry, potentially impacting other prominent companies such as LVMH and Richemont.<br><br><br></div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><span><strong>Kering</strong>, the parent company of luxury brands like Gucci and Saint Laurent, opened below the support level of 376.35 and is trading 13% lower, confirming downtrend.<br /> This sell-off comes on the back of a rejection at 438.45 and a Gravestone Doji top and reversal pattern formed last week.<br /> <br /> If Kering closes below 376.35, the next support is at around 346.10. A close below the January low of 343.40 could lead to a drop towards 313-293. <br /> <br /> </span> <p><span>Medium-term weekly chart Kering tried to establish an uptrend which is now demolished. If Kering closes below January trough at 343.40 there is no support until around 313-293. </span></p> <p><span>To neutralize this bearish outlook, Kering needs to close above 376.35, and to reverse the trend, a close above 407 is essential.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/kering-d-2003.png"/></div><div class="rte--output">Source all charts and data: Saxo Group</div><br/><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/kering-w-2003.png"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><span><strong>LVMH </strong>is showing signs of trend exhaustion; The strength indicator RSI has been declining for the past few weeks indicating weakening uptrend momentum. With a Gravestone Doji top and reversal cnadle formed last week there is strong indciation the uptrend is set to reverse. <br /> <br /> A close below 821.90 confirms a downtrend, potentially leading to a sell-off towards 782-765.<br /> <br /> A bearish Engulfing candle on the weekly chart could reinforce this bearish perspective if LVMH closes this week below 838.80. To counteract this bearish scenario, LVMH must close above 886.40.</span></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/lvmh-d-2003.png"/></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/lvmh-w-2003.png"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><span><strong>Richemont CFR&nbsp;</strong>displayed a Shooting Star top and reversal candle&nbsp;14<sup>th</sup> March.<br /> By closing yeseterday below 140.60 a bearish trend was established. <br /> <br /> There is some support at around 130.45 but CFR could very well sell-off down to strong support at around 124.25<br /> <br /> The RSI is still above 40 which suggests some positive sentiment, but a close below this level would indicate increased downside risk. <br /> <br /> </span> <p><span>Medium-term weekly chart. Declining volume during the year to date bullish trend is illustrating the trend is fragile and is supporting the view of the uptrend being in exhaustive mode furhter adding to the bearish outlook.&nbsp;</span></p> <p><span >To demolish this bearish picture a close above 140.60 is necessary</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/cfr-d-2003.png"/></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/cfr-w-2003.png"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output">A description adn explanation of technical Indicators used in my analysis - not exhaustive<br /> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/technical-analysis/technical-analysis-studies-and-indicators-29122023">Technical analysis studies and indicators</a></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/authors/kim-cramer-larsson"><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/kim-cramer-larsson-400x400.png?mw=48" alt="Kim Cramer Larsson" /><div>Kim Cramer Larsson</div><div>Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Technical analysis</span> <span>Lvmh</span> <span>LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton</span> <span>Kering SA</span> <span>SMI</span> <span>The Coca-cola</span> <span>CAC40</span> <span>Luxury Goods</span></div>Wed, 20 Mar 2024 11:02:11 Z2024-03-20T12:33:29Z{B4917683-AE5E-4EB3-88B9-592337063968}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/attacks-on-russian-refineries-lift-risk-premium-and-crude-prices-20032024Ole Hansenproduct-commoditiesInflationFederal Reservecommodity-crude oilcommodity-gas oilcommodity-heating oilOilsector-Oil and Gasplace-lc/cnAttacks on Russian refineries lift risk premium and crude prices<div class="article-excerpt">Crude oil’s steady ascent since December shows sign of running out of steam.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><span></span> <div> <ul> <li>Crude oil breaks long-held range on supply disruptions and export curbs</li> <li>Focus on FOMC outcome and EIA's weekly crude and fuel stock report</li> <li><span>The triangle breakout suggests a 5-8% upside for crude oil</span></li> </ul> <hr /> <p><span>In last week's crude update, we highlighted how the recent lack of a price catalyst had pushed the four-week rolling average trading range in WTI and Brent to a ten-year low. Crude has nevertheless been seeing a steady but calm ascent since December, when Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea raised the geopolitical temperature while supporting tighter market conditions with millions of barrels of crude and fuel products being stuck at sea for longer.</span></p> <p><span>However, since then the combination of continued Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries, lifting gasoline and diesel prices, and Iraqi plans to reduce oil exports in the coming months to compensate for recent overproduction relative to OPEC+ limits, helped drive WTI and Brent higher in the process supporting fresh momentum buying from funds looking for an extension of the long-held range. Also supporting prices were the latest <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-march-2024">Oil Market Report</a> from the International Energy Agency (IEA) in which they raised their global oil demand forecast to 1.3 million barrels per day, while shifting their balance for the year from a surplus to a deficit based on the assumption OPEC+ will maintain current production curbs through 2024.</span></p> <p><span>The biggest driver supporting the latest buying has undoubtedly been an actual supply disruption in Russia after several recent drone attacks on oil refineries added upward pressure to fuel markets, driving up crude demand, with JP Morgan estimating that 900,000 barrels per day of Russian refinery capacity being offline. A development that, depending on the duration, may support a more sticky risk premium, than those that were added following the December attacks in the Red Sea.</span></p> <p><span>Crude prices have softened a bit today ahead of the FOMC meeting that may shape the broader market tone through its impact on rates, bond yields and not least the dollar which trades higher for a fifth day, primarily driven by yen weakness following a historic rate hike from the Bank of Japan that ended up leaving more questions than answers. Ahead of the announcement, the EIA will publish its weekly crude and fuel stock report, with surveys and yesterday's American Petroleum Institute report pointing to a draw in crude and gasoline stocks. I will post the results of the EIA report on X at <a href="https://twitter.com/Ole_S_Hansen">@ole_s_hansen</a> once published at 13:30 GMT.</span></p> </div> <p paraid="889907689" paraeid="{a0b0feea-5c34-44a4-9f98-dff5a581782d}{97}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':276}"></span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/20olh_oil1.png"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><div> <div> <p><span>According to Kim Cramer, our technical analyst, <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/technical-analysis-crude-oil-broken-bullish-eyeing-higher-levels-19032024">the triangle breakout</a>&nbsp;suggests a 5-8% upside for crude oil, with Brent potentially targeting USD 90-93 per barrel and WTI USD 87-90 per barrel. In the short term, some resistance can be found at USD 88 in Brent, the 61.8% retracement of the September to December slump, while recent established longs above USD 84.75 in Brent and USD 80 in WTI will need reassurance the risk premium can grow further. Failure resulting in a break below the mentioned levels could see the bullish scenario being invalidated.</span></p> <p paraid="2054133513" paraeid="{b5be354f-4193-44c0-a961-6b7548a8c1b5}{160}"><span data-contrast="auto"> </span><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':276}"></span></p> </div> </div></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/20olh_oil2.png"/></div><div class="rte--output">Source: Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><hr /> <p><strong><span>Commodity articles:</span></strong></p> <p><span>19 Mch 2024: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/how-to-add-copper-exposure-to-your-portfolio-19032024">How to add copper to your portfolio</a><br /> 15 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/commodity-weekly---15-march-2024-15032024"><strong><span>Commodity weekly: Green shoots seen across key sectors</span></strong></a><span><br /> 13 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/lack-of-catalyst-pushes-crude-into-tightening-range-13032024"><strong><span>Lack of catalyst pushes crude into tightening range</span></strong></a><span><br /> 8 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/commodity-weekly---8-march-2024-08032024"><strong><span>Commodity weekly: Gold and silver steal the limelight</span></strong></a><span><br /> 8 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---gold-optionality-08032024"><strong><span>Investing with options - Gold optionality</span></strong></a><span><br /> 6 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/how-to-add-gold-exposure-to-your-portfolio-06032024"><strong><span>How to add gold exposure to your portfolio</span></strong></a><span><br /> 6 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ShVBip5DmL0" target="_blank"><strong><span>Video: What happened to the gold prices?</span></strong></a><span><br /> 1 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/commodity-weekly---1-march-2024-01032024"><strong><span>Grains dip, cocoa soars, gold and oil see rays of strength: February&rsquo;s commodity mix</span></strong></a><span><br /> 29 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/podcast/podcast-29-feb-2024---commodities---why-speculative-interest-is-important-for-everyone-29022024"><strong><span>Podcast: Why speculative interest is important to understand</span></strong></a><span><br /> 28 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/oil-price-stuck-in-neutral-despite-underlying-strength-28022024"><strong><span>Oil price stuck in neutral despite underlying strength</span></strong></a><span><br /> 27 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/resilient-gold-market-defies-lower-rate-cut-predictions-27022024"><strong><span>Resilient gold market defies lower rate cut predictions</span></strong></a><span><br /> 22 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/copper-short-squeeze-fades-ahead-of-key-resistance-22022024"><strong><span>Copper short squeeze fades ahead of key resistance</span></strong></a><span><br /> 21 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/golds-resilience-despite-recent-etf-and-futures-selling-21022024"><strong><span>Gold's resilience despite recent futures and ETF selling</span></strong></a><span><br /> 20 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/wti-crude-eyes-key-resistance-20022024"><strong><span>WTI crude eyes resistance amid improved signals</span></strong></a><span><br /> 16 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/commodity-weekly---16-feb-2024-16022024"><strong><span>Commodity weekly: Grains tumble; Industrial metals eye China boost</span></strong></a><span><br /> 15 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/us-rate-cut-delay-drives-gold-below-2000-15022024"><strong><span>US rate cut delay drives gold below $2000</span></strong></a><span><br /> 13 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/cocoa-13022024"><strong><span>Video: What is driving Cocoa's sweet price</span></strong></a><span><br /> 9 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/commodity-weekly---9-feb-2024-09022024"><strong><span>Commodity weekly: Refined product strength lifts crude</span></strong></a><span><br /> 9 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/podcast/podcast-9-feb-2024---the-year-of-metals-09022024"><strong><span>Podcast: Year of the metals</span></strong></a><span><br /> 7 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/crude-oil-supported-by-tightening-fuel-outlook-07022024"><strong><span>Crude oil supported by tightening fuel outlook</span></strong></a><span><br /> 6 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/us-rate-cut-delay-drives-gold-below-2000-06022024"><strong><span>Gold and silver turn defensive on reduced Fed rate-cut optimism</span></strong></a><span><br /> 2 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/commodity-weekly---2-feb-2024-02022024"><strong><span>Commodity weekly: Tight supply adds fuel to uranium and cocoa rally</span></strong></a><span><br /> 1 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/commodities-january-performance-and-etf-flows-01022024"><strong><span>Commodities: January performance and ETF flows</span></strong></a><span><br /> <strong><br /> <strong><span>Previous "Commitment of Traders" articles</span></strong></strong></span></p> <p><strong><span>18 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span></strong><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---18-march-2024-18032024"><strong><span>COT: Buying spreads from precious metals to copper and grains</span></strong></a><strong><span><br /> <strong><span>11 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span></strong></span></strong><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---11-march-2024-11032024"><strong><span>COT: Specs rush back into gold, elevated yen short in focus</span></strong></a><strong><span><br /> <strong><span>4 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span></strong></span></strong><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---4-march-2024-04032024"><strong><span>COT: Underinvested speculators fuel gold's latest surge</span></strong></a><strong><span><br /> <strong><span>26 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span></strong></span></strong><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---26-feb-2024-26022024"><strong><span>COT:&nbsp;Record corn short, cocoa surge no longer supported by speculators</span></strong></a><strong><span><br /> <strong><span>19 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span></strong></span></strong><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---19-feb-2024-19022024"><strong><span>COT: US inflation surprise drives broad selling of metals</span></strong></a><strong><span><br /> <strong><span>5 Feb 2024:</span></strong></span></strong><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---5-feb-2024-05022024"><strong><span>COT: Speculators chase false crude break; grain short extends further</span></strong></a><strong><span><br /> <br /> </span></strong></p> <p><strong><span> <br /> </span></strong></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen"><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/ole-hansen-400x400.png?mw=48" alt="Ole Hansen" /><div>Ole Hansen</div><div>Head of Commodity Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>Inflation</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Gas Oil</span> <span>Heating Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>China</span></div>Wed, 20 Mar 2024 11:00:00 Z2024-03-27T10:53:47Z{2A92F6A9-FE05-4FA0-B7CA-C65BFE6375B0}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/macro/global-market-quick-take-europe-20-march-2024-20032024Saxo Strategy Teamproduct-macroproduct-equitiesproduct-commoditiesproduct-bondsproduct-forexThought StartersAdvanced ordersplace-lc/cnplace-lr/eurmacro-employmentplace-lc/usplace-lc/gbsubject-is/pol.euforex-xauusdcurrency-usdforex-eurusdXAGUSDforex-usdcadforex-usdjpysector-gics-1010sector-TechnologyS P 500 indexQuick TakeWeekly NewsletterGlobal Market Quick Take: Europe – 20 March 2024<div class="article-excerpt">US and European equity futures trade steady with Asia markets higher after big tech momentum extended further on Wall Street pushing the S&P 500 to record highs yesterday. US FOMC meeting the focus today</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><em><span>The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.</span></em></p> <p><strong><span>Equities: </span></strong><span>The S&amp;P </span><span>500 closed at a record high yesterday with the &ldquo;Magnificent Seven&rdquo; staging a rebound with </span><span><a href="https://social.saxo/gqxtuis?uuid=pfQIV3C"><strong><span>Nvidia</span></strong></a></span><span> up 1% amid the launch of the Blackwell AI chip and expanding stack of its AI customer, but overall, there has been little exuberance from the GTC event. Super Micro Computer, meanwhile, fell 9% after the company announced that it would be selling another two million shares to finance inventory, expand its manufacturing capacity expansion and boost R&amp;D investments. Energy stocks also gained, with oil prices rising beyond the recent range. Focus now turns to the Fed announcement and dot plot, where a hawkish surprise could potentially make stocks especially in the technology space to pare recent gains.</span><strong ></strong></p> <p><strong><span>FX</span></strong><span>: The dollar index trades higher for fifth day on broad gains, with losses among its peers being led by the yen which trades back above the double-top around 150.90 </span><span><a href="https://social.saxo/m9sssxx?uuid=8PC0ktf"><span>BOJ&rsquo;s move to remove negative interest rates and YCC,</span></a></span><span> thereby raising the risk of intervention or jawboning from the authorities. EURJPY also reached a fresh YTD high at 164.70. Activity currencies also tumbled on dollar strength and dovish data and central bank signals. AUDUSD tested the 0.65 support as RBA dropped its tightening bias while USDCAD also rose to YTD high of 1.3614 as inflation undershot, before higher oil prices supported a bounce into today&rsquo;s session. UK CPI will be in focus today as GBP rebounded from a dip to sub-1.27 amid sustained equity momentum but dovish notes can hit today or at the BOE meeting tomorrow.</span><span ></span></p> <p><strong><span>Commodities:</span></strong><span> </span><span>S</span><span>tronger USD triggered some selling in commodities although </span><span><a href="https://social.saxo/wkitibe?uuid=pfQIV3C"><strong><span>crude oil</span></strong></a></span><span> still held up. Brent is now over $87/barrel after breaking out of range and is up over 13% YTD amid concerns of tight supplies while demand conditions are still holding up. FOMC decision ahead could bring some jitters if easing expectations are delayed. Copper corrected lower but green transition and AI demand could mean upward trajectory could remain in place. Our commodity strategist, Ole Hansen, discusses how to invest in copper in </span><span><a href="https://social.saxo/b1irke8?uuid=pfQIV3C"><strong><span>this article</span></strong></a></span><span>. Gold edged lower but has so far managed to hold above key support, thereby preventing long liquidation from hedge funds who in a two-week period to March 12 bought 9.1 million ounces (285 tons)</span><strong ></strong></p> <p><strong><span>Fixed income:</span></strong><span> The $13 billion 20-year US Treasury auction received solid demand yesterday on the back of lower-than-expected February Canada CPI numbers. Indirect and direct bidders took 73.5% and 17.2%, respectively, leaving primary dealers with 9.4% of the issuance. The auction stopped through WI by 2bps, leading the long part of the yield curve down after the auction. However, concerns that the Federal Reserve might not be ready to cut interest rates are weighing on the short part of the yield curve. The $46 52-week T-bill auction tailed WI by 1bps, recording the first tail since October 2022. That shows how important today&rsquo;s FOMC meeting is for bond markets, particularly the dot plot, as it could suggest a delay in rate cuts as the economy remains resilient. For a preview of today&rsquo;s FOMC meeting, click </span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/bonds/fomc-preview-dot-plot-and-quantitative-tightening-in-focus-18032024">here</a></span><span>. For a preview of Thursday's upcoming BOE monetary policy meeting, click </span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/bonds/bank-of-england-preview-slight-dovish-shift-in-the-mpc-amid-rapid-disinflationary-trends-18032024">here</a></span><span>.</span><span ></span></p> <p><strong><span>Macro</span></strong><strong><span>: T</span></strong><span>he Bank of Japan has entered a new era as it scrapped negative interest rates and yield curve control, while also ending its ETF purchases. The central bank has set the short-term interest rate at between 0-0.1% in its first rate hike since 2007, although comments suggested that they expect accommodative conditions to persist for some time which is a signal that concurrent rate rises are unlikely. Overall, the BOJ&rsquo;s message remained dovish with no signals on further tightening plans. <strong>The Reserve Bank of Australia </strong>kept its policy settings unchanged but toned down its hawkish bias even though there was no mention of rate cuts in the statement. Markets have slightly increased the odds of rate cuts this year, now standing at over 45bps from 40bps pre-RBA. <strong>Canada&rsquo;s inflation came in cooler-than-expected</strong> for February at 2.8% YoY vs. 3.1% expected and 2.9% prior and the headline was further beneath the top end of the BoC's 1-3% range, although the core measure (average of median, trim and common) still sits above, but that also eased in February to 3.13% from 3.33%. That has reinforced near-term rate cut expectations from the BOC with 73bps of rate cuts expected now for the year vs. Just over 60bps earlier. <strong>The</strong><strong> FOMC is set to keep rates unchanged</strong> at 5.25-5.50% on Wednesday. The market's focus will be on the accompanying Dot Plot with risks the 2024 median forecast may nudge higher to two cuts from December's three cuts to reflect the recent upside surprises in inflation and growth data. There is also a risk the neutral rate forecast moves higher. Given a dovish bent in data and central bank communications this week, the hawkish bar for the Fed may be lower and a pushback on rate cuts may be enough. </span><span><a href="https://social.saxo/jhdnmm6?uuid=pfQIV3C"><strong><span>Saxo&rsquo;s FOMC preview</span></strong></a></span><span> provides insights into how markets can potentially react to a dovish or hawkish surprise by the FOMC, including equities,</span><span> bonds, currencies and commodities.</span><strong ></strong></p> <p><strong><span>Technical analysis highlights: S&amp;P 500 &amp; Nasdaq 100 </span></strong><span>top and reversal pattern. Key support for<strong> S&amp;P 500</strong> 5,057, close above 5,190 reversal cancelled. <strong>Nasdaq </strong>100 key support at 17,478.&nbsp;</span><strong><span>EURUSD </span></strong><span>correction support at 1.0838 and 1.0800. <strong>USDJPY </strong>likely to test 2022 peak at 151.95. <strong>EURJPY </strong>potential to 165 possibly 166. <strong>GBPUSD </strong>bouncing from support at 1.2660, likely resuming uptrend. <strong>GBPJPY </strong>uptrend could push to 193.40. <strong>AUDJPY </strong>broken bullish out of range testing 99, likely bullish move to 99.88. <strong>USDCHF </strong>testing key resist at 0.89, a break likely move to 0.90. <strong>Gold </strong>correction unfolding likely to test support at 2,134, possibly 2,115. <strong>WTI </strong>upside potential to 87.22.&nbsp; <strong>US 10-year T-yields</strong> rejected at 4.35. Sliding back to 4.20?</span><span ></span></p> <p><strong><span>Volatility:</span></strong><span> </span><span>Yesterday, the VIX fell to $13.82 (-0.51 | -3.56%), signaling reduced anxiety before today's FOMC statement, expected to be today's main volatility catalyst. The VIX1D's jump to 15.00 (+2.59 | +20.87%) reflects market expectations for post-announcement fluctuations. Despite a general drop in volatility indicators, with the VVIX at 83.90 (-2.88 | -3.32%), the slight increase in the SKEW to 141.61 (+1.64 | +1.17%) suggests lingering concerns about outlier moves. </span><span>VIX futures edged up to 15.050 (+0.130 | +0.86%), while S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures remained steady, hinting at a cautious wait-and-see approach at 5237.00 (-4.75 | -0.10%) and 18254.25 (-15.75 | -0.09%). Tuesday's most traded stock options were NVDA, TSLA, AMD, AAPL, GOOGL, PLTR, MARA, MSFT, AMZN, and META, with a focus on tech, AI, and sectors affected by Bitcoin's recent corrections.</span><span ></span></p> <p><strong><span>In the news: </span></strong><span>BOJ&rsquo;s Small Rate Hike May Have Big Ripple Effect Around the World (</span><span><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-19/boj-s-rate-hike-may-have-ripple-effect-on-bonds-businesses-and-politics?srnd=homepage-asia"><strong><span>Bloomberg</span></strong></a></span><span>), Hong Kong Passes New Security Bill, Triggering Warnings Overseas (</span><span><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-19/hong-kong-passes-local-security-bill-cementing-china-s-control?srnd=homepage-asia"><strong><span>Bloomberg</span></strong></a></span><span>), Bitcoin slides 6%, while altcoins sparkle (</span><span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/bitcoin-slides-5-profit-taking-sweeps-crypto-2024-03-19/"><strong><span>Reuters</span></strong></a></span><span>), MicroStrategy shares fall 13% after convertible deal for bitcoin purchases (</span><span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/microstrategy-shares-fall-13-after-convertible-deal-bitcoin-purchases-2024-03-19/"><strong><span>Reuters</span></strong></a></span><span>), Apple CEO Tim Cook visits Shanghai amid a slowdown in China iPhone sales (</span><span><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/20/apple-ceo-tim-cook-visits-shanghai-amid-a-slowdown-in-china-iphone-sales.html"><span>CNBC</span></a></span><span>)</span><strong ></strong></p> <p><strong><span>Macro events (all times are GMT):</span></strong><span> &nbsp;UK CPI (Feb) exp 0.7% &amp; 3.5% vs &ndash;0.6% &amp; 4% prior (0600), US Retail Sales (Feb) exp 0.7% &amp; 4.4% vs &ndash;0.3% &amp; 4.9% prior (0600), EIA&rsquo;s Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report (1330), FOMC Rate Decision (1700)</span><span ></span></p> <p><strong><span>Earnings events: </span></strong><span>Tencent, Prudential, Micron Technology, Alimentation Couche-Tard, Kuaishou Technology, PDD, General Mills, BioNTech</span></p> <ul> <li><strong><span>Thursday:</span></strong><span> China Mobile, CNOOC, Ping An Insurance Group, Enel, China CITIC Bank, BMW, Nike, FedEx, Lululemon Atheletica, Accenture, Next, Darden Restaurants, FactSet</span></li> <li><strong><span>Friday:</span></strong><span> China Shenhua Energy, Meituan, Zijin Mining Group, Yihai Kerry Arawana, CMOC Group, China Petroleum &amp; Chemical</span><strong ></strong></li> </ul> <p><span>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo&rsquo;s </span><span><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/research/calendar"><span>calendar</span></a></span><span> </span></p></div></div><div><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/saxo-be-invested.png?mw=48" alt="Saxo Strategy Team" /><div>Saxo Strategy Team</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <span>Advanced orders</span> <span>China</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>Employment</span> <span>United States</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>European Union (EU)</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>USDCAD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>Energy (Sector)</span> <span>Technology</span> <span>S P 500 index</span> <span>Quick Take</span> <span>Weekly Newsletter</span></div>Wed, 20 Mar 2024 10:00:00 Z2024-03-20T10:05:14Z{4A343C3B-854F-4E15-B9A0-7E7D9C9A166E}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/navigating-currency-risk---2-case-studies-on-harnessing-fx-options-for-swiss-franc-stability-20032024Koen Hoorelbekeproduct-optionsThought Startersproduct-optionsInvesting with optionsOptions educationproduct-forex optionsproduct-forexForex - Educationforex-eurchfforex-usdchfUSDCHFNavigating currency risk: 2 case studies on harnessing FX options for Swiss Franc stability<div class="article-excerpt">Explore the practical application of FX options for mitigating currency risk through two detailed case studies, highlighting strategies to protect USD assets and secure EUR mortgage payments amidst Swiss Franc volatility.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><div data-message-author-role="assistant" data-message-id="8e6cecbd-7469-4cd6-8dda-58936073cce2"> <div> <p class="text--body">Options are complex, high-risk products and require knowledge, investment experience and, in many applications, high risk acceptance. We recommend that before you invest in options, you inform yourself well about the operation and risks.</p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span>Navigating currency risk: 2 case studies on harnessing FX options for Swiss Franc stability</span></h2> <span>Amidst the ebb and flow of the global economy, currency exposure stands as a prominent challenge for investors and borrowers alike. The Swiss Franc, a symbol of fiscal stability, often plays a central role in this financial narrative. This article extends the dialogue from our recent webinar to present two compelling case studies on using FX options to manage exposure involving the Swiss Franc. Through these real-world examples, we uncover the intricacies of protecting USD-denominated assets and securing EUR mortgage payments, offering actionable insights into the strategic use of FX options against currency volatility.</span>&nbsp;<br /> <br /> <em>At the end of the article</em><span><em>, we have included the complete webinar for your convenience. The webinar begins with a foundational discussion on currency risks and essential concepts related to FX options, offering a well-rounded educational experience. With captions available in English, German, French, and Dutch (courtesy of machine translation) we strive to accommodate a diverse array of viewers.</em> </span></div> </div></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span><strong>Important note</strong>: the strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it's crucial to make informed decisions.</span></p> <hr /></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h4 class="article-heading--4">Case study analysis 1: protecting USD denominated assets</h4></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/00-koho/2024-03-19-00-case01-slide01.png"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><span></span> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Understanding Currency Exposure: USD/CHF Exchange Rate Fluctuations</h4> <p><span>The slide above</span> provides a visual representation of the risks associated with holding USD-denominated assets in the face of fluctuating exchange rates. It illustrates a typical scenario faced by investors:</p> <p>Starting with a Swiss Franc portfolio valued at CHF 100,000, an investor looking to diversify or invest in U.S. assets converts their holdings to USD when the USD/CHF exchange rate stands at 0.8778. This results in a total of USD 113,921.</p> <p>However, currency values are subject to change due to a variety of economic factors, and in this case, we see the USD/CHF rate fall to 0.8200. Such a decline reflects a situation where the Swiss Franc appreciates against the U.S. Dollar, or conversely, the Dollar depreciates against the Franc.</p> <p>When the investor chooses to convert their funds back to CHF, the devalued dollar yields significantly less than the initial investment, with the conversion now amounting to only CHF 93,415. This is a clear depiction of currency risk: the reduction in value merely due to exchange rate movements results in a tangible loss for the investor, as the account value dips below the initial CHF 100,000 mark.</p> <p>The example set in <span>this slide</span> underscores why investors are keen on protecting their assets against such currency risks. In subsequent sections, we will explore how FX options can serve as a hedge to safeguard the value of an investment portfolio from these adverse movements.</p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/00-koho/2024-03-19-01-case01-slide02.png"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><span></span> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Implementing Hedging Strategies with FX Options</h4> <p><span>Figure 2</span> illustrates a hedging strategy using FX options to protect the investor's portfolio against a potential decline in the value of the USD relative to the Swiss Franc. The slide walks through the mechanics of buying a put option&mdash;a contract that grants the investor the right, but not the obligation, to sell USD at a predetermined rate (the strike price), regardless of the current market rate.</p> <p>In our example, the investor uses a put option to ensure they can still convert USD 113,921 back into Swiss Francs at the favorable rate of 0.8780, despite the market rate falling to 0.8200. This option effectively allows the investor to 'lock-in' a conversion value of CHF 100,023, circumventing the devaluation that would occur if the USD were sold at the current depreciated market rate.</p> <p>The financial impact of this option is twofold. Firstly, it protects the investor's portfolio from the exchange rate drop, as they can realize a conversion back into CHF that is very close to the initial value of their investment. Secondly, the cost of this protection&mdash;CHF 1,565.27 for the put option&mdash;must be considered. When this premium is deducted, the net value secured by the investor is CHF 98,458, significantly higher than the CHF 93,415 they would have received without using the FX option.</p> <p>This strategic application of a put option showcases the tangible benefits of FX options for managing currency exposure. It highlights how an initial outlay for an option can preserve investment value and provides a clear advantage compared to a passive approach to currency risk management.</p> <p>By comparing the protected versus unprotected scenarios, we can quantify the benefit provided by the put option. The difference of CHF 5,043 represents the value added by the option when compared to the unprotected scenario. This concrete example underscores the protective power of FX options in the realm of currency risk.</p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h4 class="article-heading--4">Case study analysis 2: securing EUR mortgage amount</h4></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/00-koho/2024-03-19-03-case02-slide01.png"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><span></span> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Managing Mortgage Payments in Foreign Currency</h4> <p><span>Figure 3</span> addresses the challenges faced by individuals with foreign currency mortgages, particularly in euros, and the strategies to manage them effectively using FX options.</p> <p>In this case study, we examine the situation of a person with a monthly mortgage of &euro;2,500, which for the sake of simplicity, we aggregate to a quarterly payment of &euro;7,500. The individual faces currency risk as the mortgage payments are subject to the fluctuating EUR/CHF exchange rate. At the current rate of 0.9610, the quarterly payment translates to CHF 7,207. This becomes our baseline for comparison.</p> <p>The risk of currency fluctuation becomes evident when considering potential movements in the EUR/CHF exchange rate. If the rate declines to 0.9250, there is a benefit as the CHF cost of the mortgage payment decreases to CHF 6,938. Conversely, if the rate rises to 0.9900, the CHF cost increases to CHF 7,425, representing a significant cost escalation for the mortgage payer.</p> <p>The core of this case study is the strategic use of FX options to &lsquo;insure&rsquo; against the unfavorable scenario where the EUR/CHF rate increases. By doing so, the individual can protect themselves from the risk of rising mortgage payments due to unfavorable currency rate movements.</p> <p>The decisions made here can have a substantial impact on personal finances, highlighting the importance of understanding and using financial instruments to mitigate currency risk. In the following sections, we will explore the specific use of FX options to hedge against this risk and secure a favorable mortgage payment plan in Swiss Francs, despite the volatility in the EUR/CHF exchange rate.</p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/00-koho/2024-03-19-04-case02-slide02.png"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h4 class="article-heading--4">Charting the Course: Technical Analysis for Currency Hedging</h4> <p><span>Figure 4</span> illustrates a technical analysis of the EUR/CHF exchange rate, which is crucial for individuals looking to secure their mortgage payments against currency risk. The chart captures the exchange rate movement over a period, showing both the historical trends and potential future directions.</p> <p>The visual analysis begins with the exchange rate at 0.9610, marked as the starting point for this case study. It's at this rate that the individual plans their mortgage payments. However, the chart indicates that the exchange rate is prone to fluctuation, which can lead to either beneficial reductions or costly increases in mortgage payments when converted to Swiss Francs.</p> <p>Highlighted in the chart are potential forecast points. These points suggest where the exchange rate might head in the upcoming months&mdash;information that can be pivotal when deciding on purchasing FX options.</p> <p>If the exchange rate trends upwards past the current rate, as indicated by the forecast, it could result in an increased cost of mortgage payments. This is where the individual would benefit from securing a call option. By purchasing a call option at the current exchange rate (0.9610), they can 'lock in' this rate for future payments, irrespective of upward market fluctuations.</p> <p>This graph serves as an analytical tool, aiding the individual in making an informed decision about when to purchase the call option. It demonstrates the importance of technical analysis in currency hedging, ensuring individuals are equipped with the best possible information to mitigate their currency risk.</p> <p>The next section will delve into how the individual utilizes this information to determine the exact timing and strike price for the FX option, crafting a tailored approach to their specific financial needs.</p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/00-koho/2024-03-19-05-case02-slide03.png"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><span></span> <h4 class="article-heading--4">Securing a EUR Mortgage Against Rising CHF Costs</h4> <p><span>Figure 5</span>&nbsp;provides a strategy for managing the currency risk associated with a EUR mortgage in the context of a rising EUR/CHF exchange rate, which can increase the CHF cost of repaying the mortgage. This slide presents the utilization of a call option as a financial safeguard for consistent mortgage payments.</p> <p>An individual faces a quarterly mortgage obligation of &euro;7,500. With the current exchange rate at 0.9610, this translates to CHF 7,207. To protect against the risk of the EUR/CHF rate increasing, the individual opts to buy a call option. This option grants them the right to exchange euros at a fixed rate of 0.9610 CHF per euro, up until the option's expiry date.</p> <p>On the expiration date (05-Jun-2024 in this scenario), if the EUR/CHF rate has risen to 0.9900, the cost of the mortgage payment would normally increase to CHF 7,425. However, by exercising the call option, the individual can execute the currency exchange at the predetermined rate of 0.9610, thereby maintaining the payment at CHF 7,207. <br /> <br /> The net savings would be: <br /> <span > </span>CHF 7,425.- (cost of paying &euro;7,500.- at a rate of 0.99) <br /> <span > </span>minus 7,207.- (&euro;7,500.- at a rate of 0.9610, the strike of the call option) <br /> <span > </span>minus CHF 50 (the cost of the option) <br /> <span > </span>= CHF 168.- <br /> <br /> This results in a net saving of CHF 168 (over a period of 3 months), demonstrating the financial benefit of using an FX option to hedge against unfavorable exchange rate movements.</p> <p>The approach highlighted in <span>Figure 4</span> illustrates the practical application of FX options in stabilizing mortgage payments against the volatility of currency exchange rates, ensuring predictability and cost-effectiveness in personal financial planning.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><span>Concluding Thoughts</span></h4> <p>Our examination of the two case studies provides a practical look at the role of FX options in managing currency risk. These tools offer a methodical approach to safeguarding the value of international investments.</p> <p>In the first case study, the use of a put option offered a safety net for an investor&rsquo;s USD assets against a drop in the USD/CHF exchange rate. The option's strategic use protected the portfolio from a decline in value, ensuring a more secure position in Swiss Francs.</p> <p>The second case study focused on a call option to manage the risk of rising costs in EUR mortgage payments. This approach helped lock in a stable conversion rate from Swiss Francs to Euros, offering predictability despite market volatility.</p> <p>The key takeaway from these scenarios is that FX options can be a reliable resource for individuals and investors looking to mitigate the potential downsides of currency fluctuations. They provide a way to navigate financial markets with an added layer of security.</p> <hr /> <span>In addition to the insights shared in this article, we have included the complete webinar within this page, for your convenience. The webinar begins with a foundational discussion on currency risks and essential concepts related to FX options, offering a well-rounded educational experience. With captions available in English, German, French, and Dutch (captions are machine generated) we strive to accommodate a diverse array of viewers. We encourage you to explore the webinar for a more in-depth understanding of the practical applications and benefits of using FX options in managing currency exposure.<br /> <br /> </span> <div ><iframe title="Video Player" src="https://video.home.saxo/v.ihtml/player.html?token=72aceb8178da9f9e97c020d10cb2413c&amp;source=embed&amp;photo%5fid=95702456" frameborder="0" border="0" scrolling="no" allow="autoplay; fullscreen"></iframe></div> <span><br /> <br /> </span></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><hr /> <h5 class="article-heading--5"><span>For continuous insights and updates on market/options strategies, interact with me/follow&nbsp;</span><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.threads.net/@koen.hoorelbeke" target="_blank">my social media account on Threads</a><span>.</span><br /> <br /> </h5> <hr /> <h4>Previous episodes of the "Saxo Options Talk"&nbsp;podcast</h4> <ul> <li>13 Mar 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---episode-11---stretched-synthetic-stock-using-options-13032024">Options Talk - Episode 11 - Stretched Synthetic Stock using Options</a></li> <li>6 Mar 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---episode-10---synthetic-stock-06032024">Options Talk - Episode 10 - Synthetic Stock</a></li> <li>28 Feb 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---episode-09---volatility-28022024">Options Talk - Episode 09 - Volatility</a></li> <li>21 Feb 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---episode-08---rolling-21022024">Options Talk - Episode 08 - Rolling</a></li> <li>14 Feb 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---episode-07---put-spreads-14022024">Options Talk - Episode 07 - Put Spreads</a></li> <li>7 Feb 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---episode-06---delta-07022024">Options Talk - Episode 06 - Delta</a></li> <li>31 Jan 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---episode-05---short-call-spreads-31012024">Options Talk - Episode 05 - Short Call Spreads</a></li> <li>24 Jan 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---episode-04---long-call-spreads-24012024">Options Talk - Episode 04 - Long Call Spreads</a></li> <li>17 Jan 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---episode-03---long-calls-17012024">Options Talk - Episode 03 - Long Calls</a></li> <li>10 Jan 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---introducing--options-talk-by-koen-and-peter---your-weekly-podcast-on-options-trading-10012024">Options Talk - Introducing -Options Talk by Koen and Peter- -Your Weekly Podcast on Options Trading</a></li> </ul> <h4>Previous "Volatility reports":&nbsp;</h4> <ul> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/volatility-report---week-12---18-mar-24----22-mar-24-19032024">Volatility report - week 12 - 18 mar 24 -- 22 mar 24</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/volatility-report---week-11---11-mar-24----15-mar-24-12032024">Volatility report - week 11 - 11 mar 24 -- 15 mar 24</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/volatility-report---week-10---4-mar-24----8-mar-24-05032024">Volatility report - week 10 - 4 mar 24 -- 8 mar 24</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/volatility-report---week-9---26-feb-24----1-mar-24-27022024">Volatility report - week 9 - 26 feb 24 -- 1 mar 24</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/volatility-report---week-8---19-feb-24----23-feb-24-20022024">Volatility report - week 8 - 19 feb 24 -- 23 feb 24</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/volatility-report---week-7---12-feb-24----16-feb-24-13022024">Volatility report - week 7 - 12 feb 24 -- 16 feb 24</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/volatility-report---week-6---5-feb-24----9-feb-24-06022024">Volatility report - week 6 - 5 feb 24 -- 9 feb 24</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/volatility-report---week-5---29-jan-24----2-feb-24-30012024">Volatility report - week 5 - 29 jan 24 -- 2 feb 24</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/volatility-report---week-4---22-jan-24----26-jan-24-22012024">Volatility report - week 4 - 22 jan 24 -- 26 jan 24</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/volatility-report---week-3---15-jan-24----19-jan-24-15012024">Volatility report - week 3 - 15 jan 24 -- 19 jan 24</a></li> </ul> <h4>Previous "Investing with options" articles:&nbsp;</h4> <ul> <li>8 Mar 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---gold-optionality-08032024">Investing with options - Gold optionality</a></li> <li>19 Feb 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---securing-your-tech-stock-gains-with-simple-hedging-strategies---2of2-19022024">Investing with options - Securing your tech stock gains with simple hedging strategies - 2of2</a></li> <li>19 Feb 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---securing-your-tech-stock-gains-with-simple-hedging-strategies---1of2-19022024">Investing with options - Securing your tech stock gains with simple hedging strategies - 1of2</a></li> <li>2 Feb 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---microsoft---buying-stock-or-options---a-comparison-02022024">Investing with options - Microsoft - buying stock or options - a comparison</a></li> <li>25 Jan 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-fx-options---hedging-usdjpy-currency-risk-25012024">Investing with FX options - Hedging USDJPY currency risk</a></li> <li>8 Jan 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-fx-options---hedging-currency-risk-08012024">Investing with FX options - Hedging currency risk</a></li> <li>30 Nov 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---gld---gold-etf-30112023">Investing with options - striking gold (GLD)</a></li> <li>23 Nov 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---hedging-the-nasdaq-100-23112023">Investing with options - hedging the Nasdaq 100</a></li> <li>17 Nov 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---nvidia---pre-earnings-17112023">Investing with options - Nvidia - pre-earnings</a></li> <li>10 Nov 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---adyen---post-investor-day-10112023">Investing with options - AdYen - post investor day</a></li> <li>31 Oct 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---novo-nordisk-earnings-31102023">Investing with options - Novo Nordisk earnings</a></li> <li>31 Oct 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---apple-earnings-31102023">Investing with options - Apple earnings</a></li> <li>24 Oct 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---amazon-earnings-24102023">Investing with options - Amazon earnings</a></li> <li>24 Oct 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---meta-platforms-earnings-24102023">Investing with options - Meta Platforms earnings</a></li> <li>23 Oct 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---alphabet-earnings-23102023">Investing with options - Alphabet earnings</a></li> <li>20 Oct 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---microsoft-earnings-20102023">Investing with options - Microsoft earnings</a></li> <li>18 Oct 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---tesla-earnings-18102023">Investing with options - Tesla earnings</a></li> <li>17 Oct 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---long-bonds---tlt-17102023">Investing with options - long bonds - TLT</a></li> </ul> <h4>Previous "What are your options" articles:&nbsp;</h4> <ul> <li>23 Feb 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/what-are-your-fx-options---nzdusd-and-nzdjpy-23022024">What are your FX options - NZDUSD and NZDJPY</a></li> <li>12 Feb 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/what-are-your-fx-options---usdjpy---after-148-breakout-12022024">What are your FX options - USDJPY - after 148 breakout</a></li> <li>24 Jan 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/what-are-your-options---tesla-q4-earnings-24012024">What are your options - Tesla Q4 Earnings</a></li> <li>18 Jan 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/what-are-your-fx-options---eurusd-elevated-volatility-18012024">What are your FX options - EURUSD elevated volatility</a></li> <li>12 Jan 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/what-are-your-options---coinbase-after-btc-etf-approval-12012024">What are your options - Coinbase after BTC ETF approval</a></li> <li>21 Nov 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/what-are-your-options---nvidia-earnings-21112023">What are your options - Nvidia earnings</a></li> <li>08 Nov 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/what-are-your-options---disney-earnings-08112023">What are your options - Disney earnings</a></li> <li>26 Oct 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/what-are-your-options---nasdaq-selling-premium-26102023">What are your options - Nasdaq Selling Premium</a></li> <li>29 Aug 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/what-are-your-options---salesforce-earnings-29082023">What are your options - Salesforce earnings</a></li> <li>25 Aug 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/what-are-your-options---the-qs---nasdaq-etf-25082023">What are your options - the Qs - Nasdaq etf</a></li> <li>23 Aug 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/what-are-your-options---nvidia---earnings---market-reactions-23082023">What are your options - Nvidia - earnings - market reactions</a></li> <li>21 Aug 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/what-are-your-options---swing-trading-semi-conductors---stocks-vs-options-21082023">What are your options - swing trading semi-conductors - stocks vs options</a></li> <li>18 Aug 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/what-are-your-options---using-tlt-as-an-inverse-proxy-for-the-10-year-yield-18082023">What are your options - using TLT as an inverse proxy for the 10 year yield</a></li> </ul> <p><span >Related articles:</span></p> <ul> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/from-zero-to-hero---buying-options-05092023">From zero to hero - buying options</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/from-zero-to-hero---selling-options-12092023">From zero to hero - selling options</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/from-zero-to-hero---selling-options-12092023"></a><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/from-zero-to-hero---option-strategies-06112023">From zero to hero - option strategies</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/from-zero-to-hero---options-lexicon-20112023">From zero to hero - options lexicon</a><br /> <br /> </li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/why-options-strategies-belong-in-every-traders-toolbox-05072023">Why options strategies belong in every traders toolbox</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/understanding-and-calculating-the-expected-move-of-a-stock-etf-index-07072023">Understanding and calculating the expected move of a stock etf index<br /> </a>&nbsp;</li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/understanding-delta---a-key-guide-for-investors-and-traders---part-1-26072023">Understanding Delta - a key guide for Investors and Traders - part 1</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/understanding-delta---a-key-guide-for-investors-and-traders---part-2-07082023">Understanding Delta - a key guide for Investors and Traders - part 2<br /> &nbsp;</a></li> <li><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/trading-0dtes---get-your-feet-wet---without-drowning---part-1-04092023">Trading 0DTEs - get your feet wet - without drowning - part 1</a></span></li> <li><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/trading-0dtes---get-your-feet-wet---without-drowning---part-2-07092023">Trading 0DTEs - get your feet wet - without drowning - part 2</a></span></li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"></h4></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><div><hr /> <div>Options are complex, high-risk products and require knowledge, investment experience and, in many applications, high risk acceptance. We recommend that before you invest in options, you inform yourself well about the operation and risks. In Saxo Bank's Terms of Use you will find more information on this in the Important Information Options, Futures, Margin and Deficit Procedure. You can also consult the Essential Information Document of the option you want to invest in on Saxo Bank's website.&nbsp;</div> </div></div></div><div><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/koen-hoorelbeke-400x400-v2.jpg?mw=48" alt="Koen Hoorelbeke" /><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <span>Investing with options</span> <span>Options education</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/forex-options">Forex Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>Forex - Education</span> <span>EURCHF</span> <span>USDCHF</span> <span>USDCHF</span></div>Wed, 20 Mar 2024 08:00:00 Z2024-03-20T06:10:07Z{385BD9D3-70FB-4263-836E-B4B5DB6C26F7}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/macro/japans-exit-from-negative-rates-implications-for-the-economy-yen-and-stocks-20032024Charu Chananaproduct-macroHighlighted articlesmacro-central banksmacro-central banksFederal Reserveforex-xauusdMacro-FXplace-lc/usInflationcurrency-usdforex-gbpjpyGBPJPYforex-eurjpyforex-cadjpyforex-chfjpyforex-audjpycurrency-jpyforex-usdjpyEURJPYUSDJPYAUDJPYplace-lc/jpBank of JapanJapan 225product-forexproduct-bondssubject-is/fin.stpbondJapan’s exit from negative rates: Implications for the economy, yen and stocks<div class="article-excerpt">Historic decision from the Bank of Japan to exit negative interest rates signals confidence in Japan's economic recovery. </div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span>The Bank of Japan has entered a new era as it scrapped negative interest rates and yield curve control. The central bank has set the short-term interest rate at between 0-0.1% in its first rate hike since 2007. While well-anticipated, the BOJ&rsquo;s end of negative interest rate policy could have a plethora of implications for domestic and global markets. </span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/20_boj.png"/></div><div class="rte--output">Source: Bank of Japan</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span>The orthodox policy has been kept in place as authorities wanted to encourage bank lending, spur demand and nurture inflation. Now, with inflation hovering over the 2% target for 22 months straight, and signals of wage growth gathering pace, this new era is also a signal of Japan&rsquo;s new economic landscape. </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span class="underline; ">Where does the BOJ go from here?</span></strong></h3> <p><span>While we can say that the BOJ ended the era of negative rates, it remains hard to say how far the central bank will go on the positive rate territory. Despite an end to YCC, the BOJ said that they are still maintaining JGB purchases and will step in where necessary if yields run too high, too fast.</span></p> <p><span>There was also no forward guidance about future policy steps and the pace of normalisation. Even though the normalization move came in earlier than we expected, the pace of normalization seems to be what we had expected. Our earlier note on &ldquo;</span><a href="https://social.saxo/fhecuhh?uuid=sf349n7"><em><span>A reality check on Bank of Japan&rsquo;s policy normalization and JPY appreciation expectations</span></em></a><span>&rdquo; argued that the BOJ will need to consider debt sustainability risks and the lack of a JGB market and will likely stick with modest and gradual normalization policy. We continue to expect policy to remain accommodative and financial conditions to remain loose in Japan until there is further evidence of sustainable inflation. </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span class="underline; ">What are the implications of the BOJ exit for Japanese economy?</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Usually, the early part of a tightening cycle is indicative of economic strength, and its only when the tightening goes a bit further that economic weakness starts to be a concern. Likewise, BOJ&rsquo;s modest tightening is a sign that the Japanese economy may be at a turning point and the central bank is more confident that the economy can withstand higher rates.</span></p> <p><span>This is a wide shift away from the downward spiral that the Japan economy has been locked in seen for decades &ndash; one of weak consumption, no price hikes, dwindling company profits and lack of investments and wage growth.</span></p> <p><span>With wage growth of the order of 5% as evident from the early Rengo wage negotiation results, there is reason to believe that we could see income effect helping to stimulate consumption. Additionally, an increase in asset values, such as stocks and real estate, due to a positive market response to higher interest rates, could also contribute to higher consumer spending through wealth effects.</span></p> <p><span>Higher consumption gives companies the flexibility to raise prices, boost margins, and increase capital spending, resulting in a virtuous cycle of increased wage gains and inflation. </span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span class="underline; ">The path forward for Yen and carry trades</span></strong></h3> <p><span>We had <a href="https://social.saxo/ezrule1?uuid=u4lYOQb">argued before the BOJ decision</a> that a hike will be accompanied by dovish commentary, and it is no surprise to see the reaction of the Japanese yen that has weakened despite the rate hike from BOJ. The only thing that can sustainably reverse the yen weakness is a dovish Fed, not a hawkish BOJ. </span></p> <p><span>Remember that USDJPY is a yield differential play. With Fed rates at 5.50%, a BOJ hike from -0.1% to 0-0.1% doesn&rsquo;t close the yield gap in any significant way. Even considering the forward pricing for BOJ, only about 40bps of additional tightening is priced in for the next two years. That is very modest. The Fed needs to be bulk of the work in closing the yield gap between Treasuries and Japanese government bonds, and so the fate of the yen remains in the hands of Chair Powell, rather than Governor Ueda.</span></p> <p><span>With the BOJ tightening behind us for now, the current environment is one where Fed is still sounding marginally hawkish and FX volatility is still low. As such, yen is likely to remain a funding currency in carry trades, which will likely continue to add to yen&rsquo;s headwinds. Going into Q2, the outlook of the yen could start to be more positive as Fed embraces rate cuts more openly, and that brings the risk of carry trade unwinding. The best running yen carry trade so far &ndash; MXNJPY &ndash; also faces risk from Banxico policymakers starting to sound more dovish lately and even considering a rate cut as early as the March 21 meeting, but even a 25bps cut keeps the carry attractive for now.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/20_carry.png"/></div><div class="rte--output">Source: Bloomberg</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span class="underline; ">New regime for Japanese equities</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Japanese stocks have had a great run last year and are up another ~20% YTD due to the many reasons we <a href="https://social.saxo/ivtj3vo?uuid=z6cklsm">discussed in this article</a>. Nikkei 225 was up another 0.7% on Tuesday, when BOJ announced a rate hike. This may be counter-intuitive but can be explained by a persistent weak yen and the BOJ move being well priced in. </span></p> <p><span>The macro story for Japanese equities, like the one for the yen, rests more on the US and Fed side. As long as the fundamentals of the US economy stay robust and the Fed stays clear of a dovish tilt, Japanese equities may have room to rally. However, caution may be warranted in Q2 as Fed gets closer to rate cuts and that boosts the Japanese yen, in turn weighing on Japanese equities.</span></p> <p><span>Still, the structural tailwinds for Nikkei, such as corporate reforms or geopolitics, continue to underpin. As such, a bottoms-up approach to investing in Japanese stocks may be considered. This could include stocks or ETFs that offer defensive and value exposures, such as MSCI Japan Value ETF (EWJV) or those that are tied to corporate reforms and dividends, such as the Nikkei 225 High Dividend Yield Stock 50 Index ETF (1489) or WisdomTree Japan SmallCap Dividend ETF (DFJ). Sectors or stocks that benefit from geopolitical shifts, such as semiconductors, could also continue to be interesting. In the wake of BOJ&rsquo;s tightening, investors may also consider shifting exposure from exporters to firms that rely more on domestic demand and importers. Banks and financial institutions are likely to benefit from higher interest rates, which could improve their net interest margins. Conversely, higher borrowing costs could weigh on debt-laden sectors such as utilities and real estate.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3">-----------------------------------------------------------------------<br /> <br /> </h3> <p><strong><span class="underline; ">Other recent Macro/FX articles:</span></strong></p> <p><span>20 Mar: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/4irex0g?uuid=9Qo3F1Q"><span>Global Market Quick Take - Asia</span></a><br /> <span >19 Mar: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/jhdnmm6?uuid=9Qo3F1Q" >FOMC rate decision: How to trade the event</a><br /> <span >18 Mar: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/e9rxuhb?uuid=9Qo3F1Q" >Weekly FX Chartbook: Heavy central bank focus as FOMC, BOJ, BOE, SNB, RBA meet</a><br /> <span >14 Mar: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/ezrule1?uuid=TuvJvvp" >FOMC vs. BOJ: Who moves the Yen?</a><br /> <span >12 Mar: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/k8ltu1w?uuid=pwxOln2" >Dampening equity sentiment could test GBP resilience</a><br /> <span >11 Mar: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/0qkcu5v?uuid=D-xHePV" >US inflation report: How to trade the event</a><br /> <span >11 Mar: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/fsvqzke?uuid=D-xHePV" >Macro &amp; FX Podcast: Have soft landing hopes turned into expectations?</a><br /> <span >11 Mar: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/dbxbsnh?uuid=D-xHePV" >Weekly FX Chartbook: JPY eying wage talk headlines and US CPI</a><br /> <span >6 Mar: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/lbbyome?uuid=uQBxXVf" >Bitcoin fever is running high, again</a><br /> <span >5 Mar: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/1cqayqy?uuid=ynhUg4G" >FX &amp; Macro Podcast: US jobs data, China's "Two Sessions" &amp; Super Tuesday</a><br /> <span >4 Mar: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/a8xoprw?uuid=ynhUg4G" >Weekly FX Chartbook: NFP miss may not be enough to turn the dollar around</a><br /> <span >28 Feb: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/ivtj3vo?uuid=jYUtzHW" >Navigating Japanese equities: Strategies for hedging JPY exposure</a><br /> <span >26 Feb: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/48lw2t5?uuid=76iNTwt" >Weekly FX Chartbook: Focus will shift back to inflation and rates trajectory</a><br /> <span >23 Feb: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/yag27ag?uuid=lkWd0nY" >Nvidia momentum spills over to FX markets</a><br /> <span >21 Feb: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/ggxmcif?uuid=iaRReLt" >Central bank divergence on the radar: Hawkish RBNZ, Dovish BOC and SNB</a><br /> <span >19 Feb: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/za69jxk?uuid=7OOjkeD" >Macro &amp; FX Podcast: How the debate about the US economy has shifted</a><br /> <span >19 Feb: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/lkmvt1f?uuid=7OOjkeD" >Weekly FX Chartbook: Dollar rally looking stretched, bullish signals for NZD</a><br /> <span >15 Feb: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/rvho4nh?uuid=PqL5OnE" >Swiss Franc&rsquo;s bearish view gets more legs</a><br /> <span >14 Feb: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/3iodcoc?uuid=bWgrp7G" >Sticky US inflation could make dollar strength more durable</a><br /> <span >13 Feb: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/pfbgduh?uuid=HcET7fH" >Weekly FX Chartbook: US and UK disinflation story in focus, watch for ECB split widening</a><br /> <span >9 Feb: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/qa2v4lh?uuid=tGc03sl" >Japanese Yen is throwing a warning</a><br /> <span >8 Feb: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/jnu6jup?uuid=DxilNEO" >FX 101: USD Smile and portfolio impacts from King Dollar</a><br /> <span >5 Feb: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/dbxbsnh?uuid=1xQshSa" >Weekly FX Chartbook: More and more reasons to stay long US dollar</a><br /> <span >1 Feb: </span><a href="https://social.saxo/3vvts4z?uuid=JXLj6xO" >FOMC out, BOE and NFP next &ndash; will the hawkish waves continue?</a></p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/authors/charu-chanana"><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/charu-chanana-400x400.png?mw=48" alt="Charu Chanana" /><div>Charu Chanana</div><div>Head of FX Strategy</div><div>Saxo Markets</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>Macro FX</span> <span>United States</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>USD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Bank of Japan</span> <span>Japan 225</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span></div>Wed, 20 Mar 2024 05:00:00 Z2024-03-20T05:55:36Z{C9B94B20-D983-4825-BBF7-D33DEA84F0CC}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---episode-12---defined-vs-undefined-risk-strategies-20032024Koen Hoorelbekeproduct-optionsproduct-equity optionsThought Startersproduct-contractoptionsproduct-optionsInvesting with optionsWhat are your optionsOptions educationOptions podcastEpisode 12 of 'Saxo Options Talk': Navigating risk: defined vs undefined strategies<div class="article-excerpt">Episode 12 of 'Saxo Options Talk' brings to the forefront the pivotal concepts of defined and undefined risk strategies in options trading. Koen Hoorelbeke and Peter Siks dissect these crucial strategies, laying out their potential impacts on a trader’s portfolio.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><div data-message-author-role="assistant" data-message-id="8e6cecbd-7469-4cd6-8dda-58936073cce2"> <div> <p class="text--body">Options are complex, high-risk products and require knowledge, investment experience and, in many applications, high risk acceptance. We recommend that before you invest in options, you inform yourself well about the operation and risks.</p> <h2 class="article-heading--2"><span>Introducing Episode 12 - Navigating Risk: Defined vs Undefined Strategies</span></h2> <p>In "Navigating Risk: Defined vs Undefined Strategies," Koen and Peter demystify the distinctions between defined and undefined risk strategies. This episode is a deep dive into understanding these fundamental options strategies and how they align with different trader profiles, particularly those new to the options market.<br /> <br /> <iframe title="Episode 12 - Defined vs Undefined Risk Strategies" allowtransparency="true" height="150" width="100%" scrolling="no" data-name="pb-iframe-player" src="https://www.podbean.com/player-v2/?i=8w229-15b2e7f-pb&amp;from=pb6admin&amp;pbad=0&amp;share=1&amp;download=1&amp;rtl=0&amp;fonts=Arial&amp;skin=1&amp;font-color=auto&amp;logo_link=episode_page&amp;btn-skin=7" loading="lazy"></iframe></p> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><span>Understanding Risk Strategies</span></h4> <ul> <li><span>Risk Strategies Explained:</span> Learn the difference between defined and undefined risk strategies with real examples, and explore which might be suitable for novice users.</li> <li><span>Straddles and Strangles:</span> Examine strategies like straddles, which can be both defined and undefined based on their long or short positions, and strangles, typically associated with undefined risk.</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><span>Transforming Risk</span></h4> <ul> <li><span>From Undefined to Defined:</span> Delve into how an undefined risk strategy like a strangle can be converted into a defined one such as an iron condor.</li> <li><span>Weighing the Odds:</span> Consider the advantages and disadvantages of both approaches, including how market conditions like high VIX levels can influence the viability of undefined risk strategies.</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><span>The Art of Position Sizing</span></h4> <ul> <li><span>Size Matters:</span> The hosts bring an interesting analogy with gaming to emphasize the importance of sizing in risk management, illustrating how this can be the difference between success and failure in trading strategies.</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><span>Preparing for the Next Step</span></h4> <ul> <li><span>Looking Ahead:</span> Get a preview of the upcoming episode focusing on the short strangle, both uncovered and covered versions, providing listeners with a teaser of more advanced strategies to come.</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><span>Why Listen to Episode 12?</span></h4> <ul> <li>Whether you are testing the waters of options trading or looking to hone your risk management techniques, Episode 12 is an invaluable guide to mastering the balance between potential profits and risks.</li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><span>Subscribe and stay ahead</span></h4> <p>Ensure you don't miss this insightful episode by <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://optionstalk.podbean.com/" target="_blank">subscribing to 'Saxo Options Talk' on Podbean</a>, or <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://open.spotify.com/show/0OJiRZ6hlSyGE6yIMGQZX1?si=fI5ib7e1RZKd-dJ4-M3gcQ" target="_blank">on Spotify</a>.&nbsp;Keep yourself updated with the latest strategies and discussions in options trading.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><span>Join the discussion</span></h4> <p>After tuning in, join me on my <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.threads.net/@koen.hoorelbeke" target="_blank">Threads profile</a> to share your thoughts and insights on the episode. It's an excellent platform for engaging with fellow traders and enhancing our collective understanding of options strategies.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><span>Your questions, our answers</span></h4> <p>We're eager to hear from you! Send your options-related questions to <a target="_new" href="mailto:optionquestions@saxobank.com">optionquestions@saxobank.com</a>. Selected questions will be addressed in future episodes, providing customized advice and insights.</p> <h4 class="article-heading--4"><span>Conclusion:</span></h4> <p><span>Episode 12 of 'Saxo Options Talk' is a crucial listen for traders seeking clarity on defined and undefined risk strategies. Koen and Peter&rsquo;s expert insights offer a comprehensive understanding of how to navigate these strategies, making informed decisions to align with your trading objectives. Tune in to elevate your options trading knowledge and prepare for the evolving market conditions.</span></p> </div> </div></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><hr /> <h5 class="article-heading--5"><span>For continuous insights and updates on market/options strategies, interact with me/follow&nbsp;</span><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.threads.net/@koen.hoorelbeke" target="_blank">my social media account on Threads</a><span>.</span><br /> <br /> </h5> <hr /> <h4>Previous episodes of the "Saxo Options Talk"&nbsp;podcast</h4> <ul> <li>13 Mar 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---episode-11---stretched-synthetic-stock-using-options-13032024">Options Talk - Episode 11 - Stretched Synthetic Stock using Options</a></li> <li>6 Mar 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---episode-10---synthetic-stock-06032024">Options Talk - Episode 10 - Synthetic Stock</a></li> <li>28 Feb 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---episode-09---volatility-28022024">Options Talk - Episode 09 - Volatility</a></li> <li>21 Feb 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---episode-08---rolling-21022024">Options Talk - Episode 08 - Rolling</a></li> <li>14 Feb 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---episode-07---put-spreads-14022024">Options Talk - Episode 07 - Put Spreads</a></li> <li>7 Feb 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---episode-06---delta-07022024">Options Talk - Episode 06 - Delta</a></li> <li>31 Jan 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---episode-05---short-call-spreads-31012024">Options Talk - Episode 05 - Short Call Spreads</a></li> <li>24 Jan 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---episode-04---long-call-spreads-24012024">Options Talk - Episode 04 - Long Call Spreads</a></li> <li>17 Jan 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---episode-03---long-calls-17012024">Options Talk - Episode 03 - Long Calls</a></li> <li>10 Jan 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/options-talk---introducing--options-talk-by-koen-and-peter---your-weekly-podcast-on-options-trading-10012024">Options Talk - Introducing -Options Talk by Koen and Peter- -Your Weekly Podcast on Options Trading</a></li> </ul> <h4>Previous "Volatility reports":&nbsp;</h4> <ul> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/volatility-report---week-12---18-mar-24----22-mar-24-19032024">Volatility report - week 12 - 18 mar 24 -- 22 mar 24</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/volatility-report---week-11---11-mar-24----15-mar-24-12032024">Volatility report - week 11 - 11 mar 24 -- 15 mar 24</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/volatility-report---week-10---4-mar-24----8-mar-24-05032024">Volatility report - week 10 - 4 mar 24 -- 8 mar 24</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/volatility-report---week-9---26-feb-24----1-mar-24-27022024">Volatility report - week 9 - 26 feb 24 -- 1 mar 24</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/volatility-report---week-8---19-feb-24----23-feb-24-20022024">Volatility report - week 8 - 19 feb 24 -- 23 feb 24</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/volatility-report---week-7---12-feb-24----16-feb-24-13022024">Volatility report - week 7 - 12 feb 24 -- 16 feb 24</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/volatility-report---week-6---5-feb-24----9-feb-24-06022024">Volatility report - week 6 - 5 feb 24 -- 9 feb 24</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/volatility-report---week-5---29-jan-24----2-feb-24-30012024">Volatility report - week 5 - 29 jan 24 -- 2 feb 24</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/volatility-report---week-4---22-jan-24----26-jan-24-22012024">Volatility report - week 4 - 22 jan 24 -- 26 jan 24</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/volatility-report---week-3---15-jan-24----19-jan-24-15012024">Volatility report - week 3 - 15 jan 24 -- 19 jan 24</a></li> </ul> <h4>Previous "Investing with options" articles:&nbsp;</h4> <ul> <li>8 Mar 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---gold-optionality-08032024">Investing with options - Gold optionality</a></li> <li>19 Feb 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---securing-your-tech-stock-gains-with-simple-hedging-strategies---2of2-19022024">Investing with options - Securing your tech stock gains with simple hedging strategies - 2of2</a></li> <li>19 Feb 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---securing-your-tech-stock-gains-with-simple-hedging-strategies---1of2-19022024">Investing with options - Securing your tech stock gains with simple hedging strategies - 1of2</a></li> <li>2 Feb 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---microsoft---buying-stock-or-options---a-comparison-02022024">Investing with options - Microsoft - buying stock or options - a comparison</a></li> <li>25 Jan 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-fx-options---hedging-usdjpy-currency-risk-25012024">Investing with FX options - Hedging USDJPY currency risk</a></li> <li>8 Jan 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-fx-options---hedging-currency-risk-08012024">Investing with FX options - Hedging currency risk</a></li> <li>30 Nov 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---gld---gold-etf-30112023">Investing with options - striking gold (GLD)</a></li> <li>23 Nov 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---hedging-the-nasdaq-100-23112023">Investing with options - hedging the Nasdaq 100</a></li> <li>17 Nov 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---nvidia---pre-earnings-17112023">Investing with options - Nvidia - pre-earnings</a></li> <li>10 Nov 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---adyen---post-investor-day-10112023">Investing with options - AdYen - post investor day</a></li> <li>31 Oct 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---novo-nordisk-earnings-31102023">Investing with options - Novo Nordisk earnings</a></li> <li>31 Oct 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---apple-earnings-31102023">Investing with options - Apple earnings</a></li> <li>24 Oct 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---amazon-earnings-24102023">Investing with options - Amazon earnings</a></li> <li>24 Oct 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---meta-platforms-earnings-24102023">Investing with options - Meta Platforms earnings</a></li> <li>23 Oct 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---alphabet-earnings-23102023">Investing with options - Alphabet earnings</a></li> <li>20 Oct 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---microsoft-earnings-20102023">Investing with options - Microsoft earnings</a></li> <li>18 Oct 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---tesla-earnings-18102023">Investing with options - Tesla earnings</a></li> <li>17 Oct 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---long-bonds---tlt-17102023">Investing with options - long bonds - TLT</a></li> </ul> <h4>Previous "What are your options" articles:&nbsp;</h4> <ul> <li>23 Feb 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/what-are-your-fx-options---nzdusd-and-nzdjpy-23022024">What are your FX options - NZDUSD and NZDJPY</a></li> <li>12 Feb 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/what-are-your-fx-options---usdjpy---after-148-breakout-12022024">What are your FX options - USDJPY - after 148 breakout</a></li> <li>24 Jan 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/what-are-your-options---tesla-q4-earnings-24012024">What are your options - Tesla Q4 Earnings</a></li> <li>18 Jan 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/what-are-your-fx-options---eurusd-elevated-volatility-18012024">What are your FX options - EURUSD elevated volatility</a></li> <li>12 Jan 2024:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/what-are-your-options---coinbase-after-btc-etf-approval-12012024">What are your options - Coinbase after BTC ETF approval</a></li> <li>21 Nov 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/what-are-your-options---nvidia-earnings-21112023">What are your options - Nvidia earnings</a></li> <li>08 Nov 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/what-are-your-options---disney-earnings-08112023">What are your options - Disney earnings</a></li> <li>26 Oct 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/what-are-your-options---nasdaq-selling-premium-26102023">What are your options - Nasdaq Selling Premium</a></li> <li>29 Aug 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/what-are-your-options---salesforce-earnings-29082023">What are your options - Salesforce earnings</a></li> <li>25 Aug 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/what-are-your-options---the-qs---nasdaq-etf-25082023">What are your options - the Qs - Nasdaq etf</a></li> <li>23 Aug 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/what-are-your-options---nvidia---earnings---market-reactions-23082023">What are your options - Nvidia - earnings - market reactions</a></li> <li>21 Aug 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/what-are-your-options---swing-trading-semi-conductors---stocks-vs-options-21082023">What are your options - swing trading semi-conductors - stocks vs options</a></li> <li>18 Aug 2023:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/what-are-your-options---using-tlt-as-an-inverse-proxy-for-the-10-year-yield-18082023">What are your options - using TLT as an inverse proxy for the 10 year yield</a></li> </ul> <p><span >Related articles:</span></p> <ul> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/from-zero-to-hero---buying-options-05092023">From zero to hero - buying options</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/from-zero-to-hero---selling-options-12092023">From zero to hero - selling options</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/from-zero-to-hero---selling-options-12092023"></a><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/from-zero-to-hero---option-strategies-06112023">From zero to hero - option strategies</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/from-zero-to-hero---options-lexicon-20112023">From zero to hero - options lexicon</a><br /> <br /> </li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/why-options-strategies-belong-in-every-traders-toolbox-05072023">Why options strategies belong in every traders toolbox</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/understanding-and-calculating-the-expected-move-of-a-stock-etf-index-07072023">Understanding and calculating the expected move of a stock etf index<br /> </a>&nbsp;</li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/understanding-delta---a-key-guide-for-investors-and-traders---part-1-26072023">Understanding Delta - a key guide for Investors and Traders - part 1</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/understanding-delta---a-key-guide-for-investors-and-traders---part-2-07082023">Understanding Delta - a key guide for Investors and Traders - part 2<br /> &nbsp;</a></li> <li><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/trading-0dtes---get-your-feet-wet---without-drowning---part-1-04092023">Trading 0DTEs - get your feet wet - without drowning - part 1</a></span></li> <li><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/trading-0dtes---get-your-feet-wet---without-drowning---part-2-07092023">Trading 0DTEs - get your feet wet - without drowning - part 2</a></span></li> </ul> <h4 class="article-heading--4"></h4></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><div><hr /> <div>Options are complex, high-risk products and require knowledge, investment experience and, in many applications, high risk acceptance. We recommend that before you invest in options, you inform yourself well about the operation and risks. In Saxo Bank's Terms of Use you will find more information on this in the Important Information Options, Futures, Margin and Deficit Procedure. You can also consult the Essential Information Document of the option you want to invest in on Saxo Bank's website.&nbsp;</div> </div></div></div><div><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/koen-hoorelbeke-400x400-v2.jpg?mw=48" alt="Koen Hoorelbeke" /><div>Koen Hoorelbeke</div><div>Options Strategist</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/equity-options">Equity Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/thought-starters">Thought Starters</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/contract-options">Contract Options</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/options">Options</a> <span>Investing with options</span> <span>What are your options</span> <span>Options education</span> <span>Options podcast</span></div>Wed, 20 Mar 2024 05:00:00 Z2024-03-27T04:43:15Z{8FF044DC-B3C0-476D-A278-9BCC19EF455E}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/macro/global-market-quick-take-asia--march-20-2024-20032024Charu Chananaproduct-macroproduct-commoditiesproduct-forexproduct-macroMacro-FXmacro-central banksmacro-gdpmacro-indicesplace-lr/aspAPAC Market DigestFeatured Market Update APACAPACplace-lc/gbplace-lc/usplace-lc/auplace-lc/cncommodity-crude oilOilsector-Oil and Gasplace-lr/eurcurrency-usdforex-eurusdforex-usdjpyforex-audusdcurrency-gbpforex-gbpusdcommodity-goldFederal Reserveproduct-bondssubject-is/fin.stpbondproduct-equitiesforex-cadjpyforex-gbpjpyforex-chfjpyforex-audjpycurrency-jpyforex-eurjpyECBplace-lc/jpInflationcurrency-sekforex-eursekforex-noksekEURSEKforex-gbpcadforex-gbpchfforex-gbpaudforex-eurgbpEURGBPGBPUSDGBPJPYplace-lc/saforex-audnzdcurrency-audAUDUSDAUDJPYcurrency-nokforex-eurnokforex-usdnokEURNOKforex-xauusdXAUUSDXAGUSDXAGUSDDow Jones IndexGlobal Market Quick Take: Asia – March 20, 2024<div class="article-excerpt">Big tech momentum extended further and helped S&P 500 to push to record highs. Historic decision from Bank of Japan to remove negative rates came with lack of visibility on further normalization plans. Fed announcement is the next big focus.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong><span></span></strong><em >The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.&nbsp;</em></p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/20_qt.png"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong><span>Equities</span></strong><span>: After having started the US session on a sour note, stocks rebounded led by big tech, and S&amp;P 500 closed at a record high. <a href="https://social.saxo/gqxtuis?uuid=pfQIV3C">Nvidia</a> was up 1% amid the launch of the Blackwell AI chip and expanding stack of its AI customer, but overall there has been little exuberance from the GTC event. </span><span>Super Micro Computer, meanwhile, fell 9% after the company announced that it would be selling another two million shares to finance inventory, expand its manufacturing capacity expansion and boost R&amp;D investments. Energy stocks also gained, with oil prices rising beyond the recent range. Focus now turns to the Fed announcement and dot plot, where a hawkish surprise could potentially make stocks especially in the technology space to pare recent gains. </span></p> <p><strong><span>FX:&nbsp;</span></strong><span>The DXY dollar index rose higher to touch the 104 handle again yesterday with losses led by JPY despite BOJ&rsquo;s move to remove negative interest rates and YCC. USDJPY traded to fresh YTD highs of 150.96 which is just above the double-top around 150.90. Intervention or jawboning from authorities could be a key risk if USDJPY moves above 151 but the effectiveness of that remains debatable. EURJPY also touched 164 handle, a YTD high, and next target will be the 2023 high of 164.30. Activity currencies also tumbled on dollar strength and dovish data and central bank signals. AUDUSD tested the 0.65 support as RBA dropped its tightening bias, while NZDUSD printed fresh YTD lows at 0.6034 amid pressure from RBA and deteriorating economic conditions which could prompt earlier start of easing compared to October priced in for now. USDCAD also rose to YTD high of 1.3614 as inflation undershot, although higher oil prices supported. UK CPI will be in focus today as GBP rebounded from a dip to sub-1.27 amid sustained equity momentum but dovish notes can hit today or at the BOE meeting tomorrow. </span></p> <p><strong><span>Commodities:&nbsp;</span></strong><span>Stronger USD triggered some selling in commodities although <a href="https://social.saxo/wkitibe?uuid=pfQIV3C">crude oil</a> still held up. Brent is now over $87/barrel after breaking out of range and is up over 13% YTD amid concerns of tight supplies while demand conditions are still holding up. FOMC decision ahead could bring some jitters if easing expectations are delayed. Copper corrected lower but green transition and AI demand could mean upward trajectory could remain in place. Our commodity strategist, Ole Hansen, discusses how to invest in copper in <a href="https://social.saxo/b1irke8?uuid=pfQIV3C">this article</a>. Gold edged lower as well but found support ahead of FOMC. </span></p> <p><strong><span>Fixed income: </span></strong><span>A slew of dovish data and central bank decisions saw yields edging lower. From BOJ to RBA to Canada&rsquo;s inflation, all sent dovish hints yesterday. The 20yr Treasury auction was very strong, and event risk from FOMC&rsquo;s dot plot ahead. </span></p> <p><strong><span>Macro:</span></strong></p> <ul> <li><span class="underline; ">BOJ</span><span>: The Bank of Japan has entered a new era as it scrapped negative interest rates and yield curve control, while also ending its ETF purchases. The central bank has set the short-term interest rate at between 0-0.1% in its first rate hike since 2007, although comments suggested that they expect accommodative conditions to persist for some time which is a signal that concurrent rate rises are unlikely. Overall, the BOJ&rsquo;s message remained dovish with no signals on further tightening plans.</span></li> <li><span class="underline; ">RBA</span><span>: The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its policy settings unchanged but toned down its hawkish bias even though there was no mention of rate cuts in the statement. Markets have slightly increased the odds of rate cuts this year, now standing at over 45bps from 40bps pre-RBA.</span></li> <li><span>Canada&rsquo;s inflation came in cooler-than-expected for February at 2.8% YoY vs. 3.1% expected and 2.9% prior and the headline was further beneath the top </span><span>end of the BoC's 1-3% range, although the core measure (average of median, trim and common) still sits above, but that also eased in February to 3.13% from 3.33%. That has reinforced near-term rate cut expectations from the BOC with 73bps of rate cuts expected now for the year vs. Just over 60bps earlier.</span></li> <li><span class="underline; ">FOMC Preview</span><span>: The FOMC is set to keep rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50% on Wednesday. The market's focus will be on the accompanying Dot Plot with risks the 2024 median forecast may nudge higher to two cuts from December's three cuts to reflect the recent upside surprises in inflation and growth data. There is also a risk the neutral rate forecast moves higher. Given a dovish bent in data and central bank communications this week, the hawkish bar for the Fed may be lower and a pushback on rate cuts may be enough. <a href="https://social.saxo/jhdnmm6?uuid=pfQIV3C">Saxo&rsquo;s FOMC preview</a> provides insights into how markets can potentially react to a dovish or hawkish surprise by the FOMC, including equities, bonds, currencies and commodities. </span></li> </ul> <p><strong><span>Macro events:</span></strong><span>&nbsp;FOMC Announcement, PBoC LPR, BCB Announcement, Japan Market Holiday (Vernal Equinox Day), UK CPI (Feb), New Zealand GDP (Q4)</span></p> <p><strong><span>Earnings:</span></strong><span>&nbsp;Tencent, Prudential, Micron Technology, Alimentation Couche-Tard, Kuaishou Technology, <a href="https://social.saxo/shqrd2x?uuid=pfQIV3C">PDD</a>, General Mills, BioNTech</span></p> <p><strong><span>In the news:</span></strong></p> <ul> <li><span>Kering warns of 10% 1st-quarter revenue drop, led by Gucci (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/kering-warns-10-first-quarter-revenue-slide-2024-03-19/">Reuters</a>)</span></li> <li><span>BOJ&rsquo;s Small Rate Hike May Have Big Ripple Effect Around the World (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-19/boj-s-rate-hike-may-have-ripple-effect-on-bonds-businesses-and-politics?srnd=homepage-asia">Bloomberg</a>)</span></li> <li><span>Hong Kong Passes New Security Bill, Triggering Warnings Overseas (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-19/hong-kong-passes-local-security-bill-cementing-china-s-control?srnd=homepage-asia">Bloomberg</a>)</span></li> <li><span>China&rsquo;s Builders Tackle Restructuring as Crisis Enters New Phase (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-19/china-s-builders-tackle-restructuring-as-crisis-enters-new-phase?srnd=homepage-asia">Bloomberg</a>)</span></li> <li><span>Unilever to spin off ice cream business, cut 7,500 jobs for cost savings (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/unilever-spin-off-ben-jerrys-unit-launches-cost-savings-plan-2024-03-19/">Reuters</a>)</span></li> <li><span>Bitcoin slides 6%, while altcoins sparkle (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/bitcoin-slides-5-profit-taking-sweeps-crypto-2024-03-19/">Reuters</a>)</span></li> <li><span>MicroStrategy shares fall 13% after convertible deal for bitcoin purchases (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/microstrategy-shares-fall-13-after-convertible-deal-bitcoin-purchases-2024-03-19/">Reuters</a>)</span></li> </ul> <p><span>&nbsp;</span></p> <p><span>For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo&rsquo;s </span><span><a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/calendar__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!s9h6Lxrg5HnW-eaWk8tithFc-W0n--QMbcd4gCbGcsfsr8F4qW3WsLXo8BbCgDcDp3oD1lF8AZcy_oIvBlBzWQ$"><span>calendar.</span></a></span></p> <p><span>For a global look at markets &ndash; go to </span><span><a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-SG/research/inspiration/inspiration?activetab=latest__;!!D2vWoWbN1g!s9h6Lxrg5HnW-eaWk8tithFc-W0n--QMbcd4gCbGcsfsr8F4qW3WsLXo8BbCgDcDp3oD1lF8AZcy_oJJtW5lSw$"><span>Inspiration</span></a></span></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/authors/charu-chanana"><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/charu-chanana-400x400.png?mw=48" alt="Charu Chanana" /><div>Charu Chanana</div><div>Head of FX Strategy</div><div>Saxo Markets</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <span>Macro FX</span> <span>Central Banks</span> <span>GDP</span> <span>Indices</span> <span>Asia</span> <span>APAC Market Digest</span> <span>Featured Market Update APAC</span> <span>APAC</span> <span>United Kingdom</span> <span>United States</span> <span>Australia</span> <span>China</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Europe</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>GBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>Gold</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/bonds">Bonds</a> <span>Government Bonds</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>CADJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>CHFJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>ECB</span> <span>Japan</span> <span>Inflation</span> <span>SEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>NOKSEK</span> <span>EURSEK</span> <span>GBPCAD</span> <span>GBPCHF</span> <span>GBPAUD</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>EURGBP</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>Saudi Arabia</span> <span>AUDNZD</span> <span>AUD</span> <span>AUDUSD</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>NOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>USDNOK</span> <span>EURNOK</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAUUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>XAGUSD</span> <span>Dow Jones Index</span></div>Wed, 20 Mar 2024 00:30:00 Z2024-03-20T00:38:02Z{B7EE3032-C4CF-4663-A3DA-AC7A5AD3937F}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/technical-analysis-crude-oil-broken-bullish-eyeing-higher-levels-19032024Kim Cramer Larssonproduct-commoditiesTechnical analysiscommodity-crude oilsector-Oil and GasOilTechnical Update - Crude oil's bullish breakout: 5-8% upside potential<div class="article-excerpt">A triangle breakout suggests a 5-8% upside potential for crude oil, with Brent potentially reaching 90-93 and WTI aiming for 87-90.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span><strong><span>Brent Crude oil</span></strong> is currently testing resistance at around 87.35 after breaking above the 84.75 resistance level. Breaking above the resistance also meant Brent has broken bullish out the Ascending Triangle-like pattern.<br /> <br /> There's a short-term potential up to the 1.382 projection at 89.51, with medium-term prospects extending to the 1.618 projection at 92.45. <br /> Notable resistance levels are identified at around 90.50 and 95.05. Should Brent Crude drift back below 84.75, the bullish scenario may be invalidated.</span></p> <p>&nbsp;</p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/brent-d-1903.png"/></div><div class="rte--output">Source all charts and data: Saxo Group</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><span><strong>WTI Crude oil </strong>has closed above the resistance at around 82.56 and is poised to reach the 1.382 projection of its Ascending Triangle at 84.38.<br /> <br /> Looking ahead, there's medium-term upside potential to the 1.618 projection at 87.22, with the next significant resistance level not appearing until around 90.37. <br /> <br /> A daily close below 79.77 could negate the bullish outlook</span></p> <strong></strong></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/wti-d-1903.png"/></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/authors/kim-cramer-larsson"><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/kim-cramer-larsson-400x400.png?mw=48" alt="Kim Cramer Larsson" /><div>Kim Cramer Larsson</div><div>Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>Technical analysis</span> <span>Crude Oil</span> <span>Oil and Gas</span> <span>Oil</span></div>Tue, 19 Mar 2024 13:30:30 Z2024-03-27T10:52:12Z{409D74E0-E575-4B26-B083-E19D5AA1D2D7}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/how-to-add-copper-exposure-to-your-portfolio-19032024Ole Hansenproduct-commoditiesInflationFederal ReserveMiningFocus Inflationcompany-freeport-mcmoran coppercommodity-copperETFTheme - Green transitionTheme - Green metalsHow to add copper exposure to your portfolio<div class="article-excerpt">Copper is called the "King of green metals" given its usage in multiple applications from batteries, electrical traction motors, solar PV technologies, wind turbines, and not least the electrical grid required to deal with the electrification of the world. </div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><div> <p><span>Copper is called the "King of green metals" given its usage in multiple applications from batteries, electrical traction motors, solar PV technologies, wind turbines, and not least the electrical grid required to deal with the electrification of the world. </span></p> <p><span>With that in mind, the reddish-orange metal, which has traded range-bound for almost a year, remains one of our favourite industrial metals. This is due to expected robust demand, not least from the aforementioned green transition, but also from the fact global inventories remain near a multi-year low, and due to the increasing risk of supply disruptions and production downgrades. Most of the major miners are dealing with rising labour and construction material costs, as well as lower ore grades as mines mature. </span></p> <p><em><span>High Grade copper futures</span></em></p> </div> <p><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':276}"></span></p> <div> <div> <h3><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':276}"></span></h3> </div> </div> <p paraid="889907689" paraeid="{a0b0feea-5c34-44a4-9f98-dff5a581782d}{97}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':276}"></span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/19olh_cop2.png"/></div><div class="rte--output">Source: Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><span data-contrast="auto"><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/sim/instant-demo/InstantDemo-EN-GL/page/product/FxSpot/8177?activeTab=overview&amp;cmpid=copy_link_platform_sharing"></a></span> <div> <div> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span>How to invest in/trade copper</span><span>:</span></h3> <p><strong><span>Exchange-traded Funds (ETFs) or Commodities (ETCs): </span></strong><span>One way to gain exposure to copper is with copper ETFs (or ETCs). Copper ETFs are investment funds that either track the price of copper, mostly through an underlying investment in copper futures contracts, or a basket of major mining companies. Investing in ETFs provides exposure to the price movements of copper or copper miners without the need to directly trade futures contracts or own individual mining stocks. Just like equities, copper ETFs are traded on major stock exchanges, making them easily available. </span></p> <p><strong >Copper miners: </strong><span >Another, more indirect, way to gain exposure to copper prices is to invest in copper miners. It is worth noting that no pure copper miner exists; they always mine something else such as gold, silver, or other industrial metals. Investing in mining companies or ETFs that hold a basket of mining stocks provides exposure to copper prices. However, these investments carry operational risks and may exhibit higher volatility compared to copper itself. In the list, we have focused on some of the major miners involved with copper extraction. Compared to copper ETFs, as described above, your exposure to copper is less direct, but, especially if you buy copper mining stocks, you gain exposure to that company instead.</span></p> <h3 paraid="1033937941" paraeid="{40b2c94f-ca78-4b98-88a6-b55cc697fffa}{234}"><span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':276}"></span></h3> </div> </div> <div> <p paraid="1425391661" paraeid="{7ae875e5-8831-4f3d-9c4d-e0eec23f9053}{112}"><span data-ccp-props="{'134233117':false,'134233118':false,'335559738':0,'335559739':0}"></span></p> </div> <span data-ccp-props="{'201341983':0,'335559739':160,'335559740':276}"></span></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/19olh_cop1.png"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong><span>Copper futures and CFDs: </span></strong><span>A third way to invest in copper is through futures or CFDs, which is the most direct and also the most complex. Trading copper futures or contracts for difference (CFDs) involves higher risk due to leverage. While these products offer opportunities for speculation, they also require careful risk management to mitigate potential losses. </span></p> <p><span>One High Grade copper futures contract has a contract size of 25,000 lbs, and based on a price at say USD 4.0 per pound, a contract&rsquo;s value is around USD 100,000. As it is a leveraged product, the buyer or seller of such a futures contract has to provide less than USD 5,000 as collateral, leaving the owner of the position highly exposed to losses without proper risk management. CFDs track the futures price with the main difference being the ability to trade smaller quantities than the 25,000-pound futures contract.</span><span ></span></p> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><span>Which factors drive copper?</span></h3> <p><strong><span>Supply and demand dynamics: </span></strong><span>The fundamental principle of supply and demand plays a significant role in determining copper prices. Increased demand for copper, particularly from industries focusing on electrification, electronics, and automotive can drive prices up. <strong><span>&nbsp;</span></strong>The green transition has become the main driver behind copper demand growth, occurring at a time where miners are struggling with higher input prices from fuel, construction material and labour, as well as lower ore grades requiring more materials to be dug out of the ground to retrieve the copper. Also, rising regulatory and start-up costs for new projects lead to a prolonged period of mismatch between increasing demand and inelastic supply.</span><strong ></strong></p> <p><strong><span>Weather and natural disasters: </span></strong><span>Extreme weather events like hurricanes, floods, and earthquakes are significantly disrupting copper mining and transportation infrastructure. This can affect supply negatively and in turn drive up prices.</span><strong ></strong></p> <p><strong><span>Global economic conditions: </span></strong><span>Copper is widely used in construction and manufacturing, so its price is sensitive to changes in global economic conditions, not least in major economies, such as China and the United States.</span><strong ></strong></p> <p><strong><span>Monetary policy: </span></strong><span>The policies of the US Federal Reserve significantly influence the price of commodities, including industrial metals such as copper. In 2023, rising interest rates drove up the funding cost of holding physical metals and led to a major round of industry destocking, but with rate cuts expected later this year, we may see a demand supportive restocking phase begin.</span><strong ></strong></p> <p><strong><span>Investor sentiment and speculation: </span></strong><span>Like other commodities, copper prices can be influenced by investor sentiment and speculative trading in commodity markets. Factors such as geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and macroeconomic policy decisions can affect investor perceptions and lead to price fluctuations.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><hr /> <strong></strong> <p><strong><span>Commodity articles:</span></strong></p> <p><span>15 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/commodity-weekly---15-march-2024-15032024"><strong><span>Commodity weekly: Green shoots seen across key sectors</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 13 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/lack-of-catalyst-pushes-crude-into-tightening-range-13032024"><strong><span>Lack of catalyst pushes crude into tightening range</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 8 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/commodity-weekly---8-march-2024-08032024"><strong><span>Commodity weekly: Gold and silver steal the limelight</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 8 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/options/investing-with-options---gold-optionality-08032024"><strong><span>Investing with options - Gold optionality</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 6 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/how-to-add-gold-exposure-to-your-portfolio-06032024"><strong><span>How to add gold exposure to your portfolio</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 6 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ShVBip5DmL0" target="_blank"><strong><span>Video: What happened to the gold prices?</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 1 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/commodity-weekly---1-march-2024-01032024"><strong><span>Grains dip, cocoa soars, gold and oil see rays of strength: February&rsquo;s commodity mix</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 29 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/podcast/podcast-29-feb-2024---commodities---why-speculative-interest-is-important-for-everyone-29022024"><strong><span>Podcast: Why speculative interest is important to understand</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 28 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/oil-price-stuck-in-neutral-despite-underlying-strength-28022024"><strong><span>Oil price stuck in neutral despite underlying strength</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 27 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/resilient-gold-market-defies-lower-rate-cut-predictions-27022024"><strong><span>Resilient gold market defies lower rate cut predictions</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 22 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/copper-short-squeeze-fades-ahead-of-key-resistance-22022024"><strong><span>Copper short squeeze fades ahead of key resistance</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 21 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/golds-resilience-despite-recent-etf-and-futures-selling-21022024"><strong><span>Gold's resilience despite recent futures and ETF selling</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 20 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/wti-crude-eyes-key-resistance-20022024"><strong><span>WTI crude eyes resistance amid improved signals</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 16 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/commodity-weekly---16-feb-2024-16022024"><strong><span>Commodity weekly: Grains tumble; Industrial metals eye China boost</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 15 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/us-rate-cut-delay-drives-gold-below-2000-15022024"><strong><span>US rate cut delay drives gold below $2000</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 13 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/cocoa-13022024"><strong><span>Video: What is driving Cocoa's sweet price</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 9 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/commodity-weekly---9-feb-2024-09022024"><strong><span>Commodity weekly: Refined product strength lifts crude</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 9 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/podcast/podcast-9-feb-2024---the-year-of-metals-09022024"><strong><span>Podcast: Year of the metals</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 7 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/crude-oil-supported-by-tightening-fuel-outlook-07022024"><strong><span>Crude oil supported by tightening fuel outlook</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 6 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/us-rate-cut-delay-drives-gold-below-2000-06022024"><strong><span>Gold and silver turn defensive on reduced Fed rate-cut optimism</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 2 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/commodity-weekly---2-feb-2024-02022024"><strong><span>Commodity weekly: Tight supply adds fuel to uranium and cocoa rally</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> 1 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</span><span><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/commodities-january-performance-and-etf-flows-01022024"><strong><span>Commodities: January performance and ETF flows</span></strong></a></span><span><br /> <strong><br /> <strong>Previous "Commitment of Traders" articles</strong></strong></span></p> <p><strong><span><strong><span>18 Mch 2024: <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---18-march-2024-18032024">COT: Buying spreads from precious metals to copper and grains</a><br /> 11 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</span></strong><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---11-march-2024-11032024"><strong><span>COT: Specs rush back into gold, elevated yen short in focus</span></strong></a><strong><span><br /> <strong>4 Mch 2024:&nbsp;</strong></span></strong><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---4-march-2024-04032024"><strong><span>COT: Underinvested speculators fuel gold's latest surge</span></strong></a><strong><span><br /> <strong>26 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</strong></span></strong><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---26-feb-2024-26022024"><strong><span>COT:&nbsp;Record corn short, cocoa surge no longer supported by speculators</span></strong></a><strong><span><br /> <strong>19 Feb 2024:&nbsp;</strong></span></strong><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---19-feb-2024-19022024"><strong><span>COT: US inflation surprise drives broad selling of metals</span></strong></a><strong><span><br /> <strong>5 Feb 2024:</strong></span></strong><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---5-feb-2024-05022024"><strong><span>COT: Speculators chase false crude break; grain short extends further</span></strong></a><strong><span><br /> <br /> </span></strong> <br /> </span></strong></p></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/authors/ole-hansen"><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/ole-hansen-400x400.png?mw=48" alt="Ole Hansen" /><div>Ole Hansen</div><div>Head of Commodity Strategy</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/commodities">Commodities</a> <span>Inflation</span> <span>Federal Reserve</span> <span>Mining</span> <span>Focus Inflation</span> <span>Freeport-mcmoran Copper</span> <span>Copper</span> <span>ETF</span> <span>Theme - Green transition</span> <span>Theme - Green metals</span></div>Tue, 19 Mar 2024 12:00:00 Z2024-03-27T10:53:48Z{68C1EBCB-1910-4F58-A589-1EB10647757F}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/forex/technical-analysis-eurusd-and-gbpusd-correction-usdchf-testing-key-resistance-19032024Kim Cramer Larssonproduct-forexTechnical analysisforex-gbpusdforex-usdchfcurrency-usdforex-eurusdTechnical Update - EURUSD could dip to 1.08. GBPUSD testing strong support at 1.2666. USDCHF testing 0.89 strong resistance<div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong>EURUSD</strong> is hovering around the 0.50 retracement of the February-March bullish move at 1.0838 and may decline further to the significant support and 0.618 retracement at around 1.08.<br /> <br /> The Moving Averages are showing conflicting signals, with the 55 Moving Average declining and the 21 and 200 Moving Averages ascending, indicating potential short- to medium-term volatility between 1.08 and 1.09. The RSI's positive sentiment suggests that EURUSD could resume its uptrend after this correction.</p> <p>If EURUSD closes below 1.08 daily, it could drop to 1.0750. However, a climb back above 1.0830 could signal the resumption of the uptrend</p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/eurusd-d-1903.png"/></div><div class="rte--output">Source all charts and data: Saxo Group</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><span><strong>GBPUSD</strong> has reached the 0.618 retracement at 1.2666 and might rebound, supported by a positive RSI. <br /> However, if GBPUSD breaks below 1.2660 and below the Cloud (shaede4d area), there's a downside risk to the 0.786 retracement at 1.2600, where the 100 and 200 Daily Moving Averages provide strong support. <br /> <br /> A move above 1.2755 could indicate an uptrend resumption</span></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/gbpusd-d-1903.png"/></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><span><strong>USDCHF </strong>is testing the 0.618 retracement and key resistance at around 0.8896. Breaking above this level could lead to a rally towards 0.90-0.9047, supported by a positive RSI.<br /> If the cross fails to break above - and especially closing above 0.89, <strong>USDCHF</strong> could retreat to between 0.88 and 0.8750, with strong support at around 0.8740.</span></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/usdchf-d-1903.png"/></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/authors/kim-cramer-larsson"><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/kim-cramer-larsson-400x400.png?mw=48" alt="Kim Cramer Larsson" /><div>Kim Cramer Larsson</div><div>Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>Technical analysis</span> <span>GBPUSD</span> <span>USDCHF</span> <span>USD</span> <span>EURUSD</span></div>Tue, 19 Mar 2024 11:15:12 Z2024-03-19T12:38:56Z{3F68ED71-FBD4-481D-BA4F-27D2DF53E848}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/podcast/podcast-19-march-2024---equities-19032024Saxo Market Callsaxostrats-podcastMacro-FXCurrencyproduct-macroproduct-forexforex-eurusdforex-usdjpyplace-lc/usplace-lc/cneditorial-nonfarm payrollsEquities: Nikkei, Nvidia and PDD<div class="article-excerpt">In today's equity episode, Peter Garnry is back in the studio with Søren Otto. They discuss the Japanese Nikkei index in the light of the Bank of Japan rate hike. They also talk about Nvidia and it's new Blackwell platform. Finally they dive into the earnings of PDD, parent company of online marketplace Temu.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p class="v2-p-l"><strong><iframe title="Equities: Nikkei, Nvidia and PDD" allowtransparency="true" height="150" width="100%" scrolling="no" data-name="pb-iframe-player" src="https://www.podbean.com/player-v2/?i=2bcqp-15b3ada-pb&from=pb6admin&share=1&download=1&rtl=0&fonts=Arial&skin=60a0c8&font-color=&logo_link=episode_page&btn-skin=ff6d00" loading="lazy"></iframe></strong></p> <p><span ><a href="https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/equities-nikkei-nvidia-and-pdd/?token=de7745b647097c897573e7d5322ef1f7">Listen to the full episode now</a> or follow&nbsp;Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app:</span></p> <p> <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/saxo-bank-market-call/id1475783610?l=en" target="_blank"><img alt="Apple" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/images/logos/podcasts/apple.png" /></a> &nbsp; <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://open.spotify.com/show/0TQCo0xVyovEigewCbc9uo" target="_blank"><img alt="Spotify" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/images/logos/podcasts/spotify.png" /></a> &nbsp; <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://saxostrats.podbean.com/" target="_blank"><img alt="Podbean" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/images/logos/podcasts/podbean.png" /></a> &nbsp; &nbsp;</p> <div class="v2-mab50" > <div class="rte--output">If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at <em>marketcall@saxobank.com</em> and we'll look into it.</div> <div class="rte--output">&nbsp;</div> <div class="rte--output"><strong >Questions and comments, please!</strong></div> <div class="rte--output"><strong ></strong><span >We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podca</span><span >s</span><span >t team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at <em>marketcall@saxobank.com</em>.</span></div> </div></div></div><div><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/platform-social-sharing-images/smc_thumb_400x400.png?mw=48" alt="Saxo Market Call" /><div>Saxo Market Call</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/podcast">Podcast</a> <span>Macro FX</span> <span>Currency</span> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/macro">Macro</a> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>EURUSD</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>United States</span> <span>China</span> <span>Nonfarm Payrolls</span></div>Tue, 19 Mar 2024 10:26:00 Z2024-03-19T12:57:09Z{592847D2-AA48-4BF2-8559-E31098EAC5F6}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/equities/nvidia-new-ai-chip-unilever-restructuring-and-nike-earnings-19032024Peter Garnryproduct-equitiesHighlighted articlesSaxo Strats Core ThemesEarnings Releasessubject-is/fin.reportsUnileverUnilever Plccompany-nikeNike IncNVIDIA CorporationTheme - Artificial intelligenceBuy and holdNvidia’s new AI chip, Unilever restructuring, and Nike earnings<div class="article-excerpt">Nvidia is in focus today as the leading AI chip maker announced yesterday its new AI chip platform called Blackwell. In today's equity note we also touch on Unilever restructuring and Nike earnings expected on Thursday.</div><div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Key points:</span></strong></h3> <ul > <li><span>Nvidia launched Blackwell GPU exceeding expectations with 2.5x better performance than the previous generation and announced new NVLink switches, analysts are positive with a 12-month price target of $932.</span><br /> <br /> </li> <li><span>Unilever is restructuring to save &euro;800mn in costs over the next three years and separating its &euro;7.9bn ice cream business, analysts have a 12-month price target of GBp 4,256.</span><br /> <br /> </li> <li><span>Nike reports earnings on Thursday, analysts expect revenue to be down 0.7% YoY and EPS down 6.1% YoY, analysts have a 12-month price target of $119.</span></li> </ul> <h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Nvidia launches Blackwell chip to extend edge</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Nvidia&rsquo;s GTC AI conference is in full swing and yesterday the world&rsquo;s leading AI chip maker announced its new Blackwell GPU which is expected to extend the company&rsquo;s lead in AI chips. The Blackwell GPU platform comes with 2.5x greater performance than its H100 platform (Hopper chip) which will likely widen Nvidia&rsquo;s leading position. Nvidia also announced a new NVLink switches supporting the trend of AI networking becoming a new growing business in servers. The conference will continue until Thursday and we expect the news flow to continue to be positive for AI related stocks including Nvidia.</span></p> <p><span>Analysts have a 12-month price target of $932 which around 5% higher than the current price with 90% of analysts covering the stock having a positive view on the stock. Nvidia is expected to report FY25 Q1 (ending 30 April) on 24 May with analysts expecting revenue growth of 234% YoY and EPS of $5.44 up 522% YoY.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/19_pg_1.png"/></div><div class="rte--output">Nvidia shares | Source: Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Unilever is trimming the business and offering an ice cream to the market</strong></h3> <p>Unilever, one of Europe&rsquo;s largest fast-moving consumer goods companies, shares are up 5% this morning as the company is announcing a big restructuring programme to find &euro;800mn in cost savings over the next three years. In our view that is not very ambitious as the world can look very different in three years and the risk is that Unilever never end up achieving those costs savings.</p> <span>In addition to the cost savings programme, Unilever is separating its global ice cream business which has annual sales of &euro;7.9bn in 2023 and include brands such as Magnum and Ben &amp; Jerry&rsquo;s. The separation is starting immediately and is expected to be finished by the end of 2025, so again the market may conclude that things are moving too slowly. Analysts have a 12-month price target of GBp 4,256 which is around 6% above the current price.</span></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/19_pg_2.png"/></div><div class="rte--output">Unilever share price | Source: Saxo</div><br/><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong><span>Nike earnings: Will more disappointment follow?</span></strong></h3> <p><span>Nike reports FY24 Q3 (ending 28 Feb) earnings on Thursday at 20:15 GMT (21:15 CET). Analysts expect revenue growth down 0.7% YoY and EPS of $0.74 down 6.1% YoY. Nike continues to face tough competition, a sluggish consumer demand, elevated inventory (will likely decline again in the previous quarter), and thus painting a muted picture in the short term. Nike is taking steps to make strategic price hikes and trimming inventory in order to improve operating margins, so this is the key upside potential if management can succeed with this on top of the recent $2bn cost savings programme that was announced. Analysts have a 12-month price target of $119 which is around 20% higher from the current price.</span></p></div></div><div class="article-additional-rte"><div class="rte--output"><h3 class="article-heading--3"><strong>Recent notes on equities</strong></h3> <div><strong></strong> <div><strong></strong> <div><strong></strong> <div><strong></strong> <div><strong></strong> <div><strong></strong> <div><strong></strong> <div><strong></strong> <div><strong></strong> <div><strong></strong> <div><strong></strong> <div><strong></strong> <div><strong></strong> <div><strong></strong> <div><strong></strong> <div><strong></strong> <div><strong></strong> <div><strong>Equities&nbsp;</strong><time data-styles="tooltip" data-tooltip="Displayed in your local timezone (UTC+01)" data-tooltip-length="medium" data-tooltip-position="up" data-behavior="time-formatter tooltip" data-template="YYYY-MM-DD HH:mm" datetime="2024-03-15T14:00:00Z" data-instance="time-formatter tooltip__EKJGWJ">2024-03-15 15:00</time></div> <h4><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/article/7dc56cea-a201-432c-89eb-9929880c6d30" target="_self">Signs of green metals comeback</a></h4> <strong>Equities&nbsp;</strong><time data-styles="tooltip" data-tooltip="Displayed in your local timezone (UTC+01)" data-tooltip-length="medium" data-tooltip-position="up" data-behavior="time-formatter tooltip" data-template="YYYY-MM-DD HH:mm" datetime="2024-03-13T11:00:00Z" data-instance="time-formatter tooltip__KAXDWQ">2024-03-13 12:00</time></div> <h4><a href="https://www.saxotrader.com/d/article/e7b9c3b6-2511-4660-8d11-840b1d24af38" target="_self">Tech rally echoes dot-com boom: Time to reduce exposure?</a></h4> <strong>Equities&nbsp;</strong><time data-styles="tooltip" data-tooltip="Displayed in your local timezone (UTC+01)" data-tooltip-length="medium" data-tooltip-position="up" data-behavior="time-formatter tooltip" data-template="YYYY-MM-DD HH:mm" datetime="2024-03-12T13:00:00Z" data-instance="time-formatter 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href="https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/earnings-watch-busy-week-with-focus-on-caterpillar-eli-lilly-and-siemens-05022024" target="_blank">Earnings Watch: Busy week with focus on Caterpillar, Eli Lilly, and Siemens</a></h4> </div> </div> </div> </div></div></div><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/authors/peter-garnry"><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/peter-garnry-400x400.png?mw=48" alt="Peter Garnry" /><div>Peter Garnry</div><div>Head of Saxo Strats</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/equities">Equities</a> <span>Highlighted articles</span> <span>Saxo Strats Core Themes</span> <span></span> <span>Corporate Earnings</span> <span>Unilever</span> <span>Unilever Plc</span> <span>Nike</span> <span>Nike Inc.</span> <span>NVIDIA Corporation</span> <span>Theme - Artificial intelligence</span> <span>Buy and hold</span></div>Tue, 19 Mar 2024 09:15:00 Z2024-03-19T09:29:38Z{379234B4-8A07-49B5-B792-7FC72E21AF98}https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/forex/technical-analysis-usdjpy-pushing-higher-could-test-2022-peak-19032024Kim Cramer Larssonproduct-forexTechnical analysisforex-usdjpyforex-eurjpyforex-gbpjpyforex-audjpycurrency-jpyTechnical Update - USDJPY higher eyeing 2022 peak around 152<div class="article-rte"><div class="rte--output"><p><strong>USDJPY </strong>broke above the resistance at 149.20 this morning, gaining momentum and now nearing the February peak at around 150.88. There might be a rejection at the Feebruary peak - at first - followed by a minor pullback, potentially down to 149.90 or possibly even 149.20.</p> <p>However, the crucial question is whether USDJPY will close above 150.88 or not, and if the RSI can close back above the 60 threshold, which would confirm positive sentiment. If this scenario unfolds, USDJPY could see further upside potential to the 2022 peak at around 151.94 or even reach the 1.382 projection of the early March correction at 152.51.<br /> <br /> For analysis on other JPY pairs : EURJPY, AUDJPY and GBPJPY see yesterday's Technical Update:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/forex/technical-analysis-jpy-pairs-resuming-uptrend-18032024">Technical analysis JPY pairs resuming uptrend</a><br /> <br /> For Daily Technical Updates on Forex:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/content/articles/technical-analysis/cramers-corner-daily-technical-update-19032024">Cramers Corner Daily Technical Update</a></p></div></div><div class="article-image"><img alt="" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/2024/march/usdjpy-d-1903.png"/></div><div class="rte--output">Source: Saxo Group</div><br/><div><a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/authors/kim-cramer-larsson"><img style="float: left; margin-right: 12px;" src="https://www.home.saxo/-/media/content-hub/images/general/author-profile-pictures/kim-cramer-larsson-400x400.png?mw=48" alt="Kim Cramer Larsson" /><div>Kim Cramer Larsson</div><div>Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group</div><div>Saxo Bank</div></a></div><div ><b>Topics:</b> <a href="https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/insights/news-and-research/forex">Forex</a> <span>Technical analysis</span> <span>USDJPY</span> <span>EURJPY</span> <span>GBPJPY</span> <span>AUDJPY</span> <span>JPY</span></div>Tue, 19 Mar 2024 09:05:59 Z2024-03-19T10:21:27Z