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The Week Ahead: SpaceX IPO, Apple faces its big AI moment; OPEC to hike output, ECB to hike rates and US inflation set to climb

Fri, 05 Jun 2026 10:11:00 Z

Your guide to the trading calendar over the week of 8 - 12 June.

Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.

The European Central Bank is all but certain to raise interest rates on Thursday to combat rising inflation; but will this kick of a broader round of tightening by global central banks? US inflation data (Wed) could give the market a ready on what the Federal Reserve will do at its next meeting, while the UK’s latest GDP report (Fri) is going to provide a clue as to whether the Bank of England will turn hawkish later this month. Meanwhile we kick the week off with an OPEC meeting (Sun) and Apple developer conference (Mon). And there is the small matter of the SpaceX IPO (Fri).

Here’s the key events to watch over the next week.

Sunday, 7 June

OPEC meets for the first time without the United Arab Emirates, with the cartel and its allies in OPEC+ set to approve a further output hike despite the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. The seven remaining OPEC members are likely to agree an increase of 188,000 bpd for July, the same as the hike agreed for June. However, the ongoing disruption in the Middle East means that in reality output has plunged due to export cuts by Gulf nations, down to an average 33.19 million bpd in April versus 42.77 million in February, according to OPEC’s own data.

Monday, 8 June

Apple faces a crucial AI test at the annual Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC), where investors expect a major Siri and AI upgrade that could shape the next leg of the iPhone cycle. Apple is expected to unveil the much-anticipated overhauled, conversational Siri powered by Google Gemini – a key moment to see if it can keep pace with rival big tech companies in the AI arms race. Charu has more on this here.

The trading week kicks off with a fairly light economic calendar with just the Japan final GDP and prices index ahead of German factory orders and the Sentix investor confidence report.

Tuesday, 9 June

On the economic front there is the UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor and Australia’s Westpac Consumer Sentiment report overnight. The European session kicks off with German industrial production and trade data before the US ADP weekly employment report and trade data.

Wednesday, 10 June

US inflation data for May is the major risk event of the week as it will shape how quickly the Federal Reserve is likely to pivot away from its easing bias. The April print rose to +0.6% for the month, pushing annual CPI inflation to +3.8%. Core CPI rose 0.4% for the month and +2.8% year-on-year. For May, the headline rate could rise +0.3% on the month for a +4.2% annual rate, while core is seen at +0.5% for the month and +2.9% annually. I had a look at what the new Kevin Warsh Fed might look like here.

Meanwhile the Bank of Canada is expected to leave rates on hold at 2.25%. Since the last meeting in April core inflation and GDP have been a little softer than expected, which may see the central bank opt for a slightly less hawkish view.

Oracle reports its Q4 earnings.

Thursday, 11 June

The European Central Bank is all but certain to raise interest rates – the real question is whether it offers up any guidance on what it might do thereafter. The current setup suggests a limited inflation impulse – this is not 2022 again – so there is a chance it’s one-and-done from the ECB. However, it's also likely the ECB wants to lean against any chance of second-round inflation effects by signalling a willingness to hike again, leaving another in September on the table without making this a precommitment. There is not a lot more data before the July meeting and it doesn't need to move all that quickly - the starting point then was -0.5% on the main policy rate, not the 2% this time. June's economic projections from the ECB staff will also support the case for hikes by revising up inflation forecasts - likely up to around +2.9% this year from a prior forecast of +2.6%. But as long as a US-Iran peace deal is in the offing the market won't want to price in too aggressive a hiking cycle.

There is more inflation data from the US with the produce price index. A month ago a hotter-than-expected PPI sparked a move in bond markets as yields began to rise. US PPI inflation print came in at +1.4% month-on-month vs +0.5% expected for April, well above the upwardly revised +0.7% rise in March, with the April increase the largest advance since rising 1.7% in March 2022. Core PPI rose to +1% vs +0.4% expected, with final demand year-over-year at +6.0% vs +4.9% expected.

Adobe is due to report earnings.

Friday, 12 June

The week rounds out with the highly anticipated SpaceX IPO, with shares set to start trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX. Plus we get a look at the latest monthly GDP report for the UK, which will offer some further clues about the extent to which the Iran war is hurting consumer demand. Final CPI data from Germany and France are due up, whilst the US session will look to the preliminary UoM consumer sentiment and inflation expectations reports.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities United Kingdom Highlighted articles UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer FR US Actualites et Analyses Trump Version 2 - Investors Volatility investor TagFeed En hurtig tanke

Options Brief - Broadcom shock, rotation wins - 5 June 2026

Fri, 05 Jun 2026 10:00:00 Z

Broadcom's post-earnings plunge highlighted a growing gap between strong AI fundamentals and investor expectations. While the Dow closed at a record high thanks to strength in financials and healthcare, options flow pointed to increasing institutional demand for downside protection in small caps, semiconductors, and crypto-related names.

Options Brief - Broadcom shock, rotation wins - 5 June 2026

Broadcom’s AI chip guidance miss triggered a sharp rotation from tech into financials and value, setting up a vol event as May Non-Farm Payrolls land at 14:30 CET.

Thursday’s session delivered a rotation story rather than a market breakdown. Broadcom beat on revenue but disappointed on forward AI chip guidance, sending the stock down approximately 14% and pulling the broader semiconductor complex lower. Capital moved swiftly into financials, healthcare, and value names — lifting the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a record close while the Nasdaq 100 underperformed. For options traders, the more telling signal sits not in the index headline but in the term structure and in yesterday’s confirmed-opening flow, which showed broad-based institutional demand for downside protection across small caps, large-cap tech, and crypto proxies.

Headline driver

Broadcom’s fiscal Q2 report beat on revenue ($22.19bn vs. $22.13bn consensus) but fell short on forward AI chip guidance — Q3 AI chip sales projected at $16bn, below analyst estimates of approximately $17.2bn — sending the stock down approximately 14% on Thursday and triggering a broad semiconductor sell-off. Capital rotated swiftly into financials, healthcare, and value names, lifting the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a record close while the Nasdaq 100 underperformed.

Market snapshot

S&P 500 closed +0.41% at 7,584.31 — a headline number that conceals the degree of internal rotation. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged +1.73% to a record 51,567.17, while the Nasdaq 100 slipped -0.53% to 30,407.81. The Russell 2000 added +1.45% to 2,935.33, reflecting broad appetite for non-AI cyclicals. US 10-year yields eased to 4.465% (-2.2 bps). As of writing, S&P 500 futures are down approximately 0.56% and Nasdaq 100 futures are off 1.12%, as the Broadcom shock continues to weigh on Asian equity markets ahead of this afternoon’s May Non-Farm Payrolls report (14:30 CET).

Data source: Saxo platform, as of 4 June 2026 close.

Market regime: Low vol bull — VIX 15.74, 20-day realised vol 8.9% (stable), S&P 500 +6.22% above its 50-day moving average.

Options flow sentiment

Based on end-of-day 4 June 2026 — yesterday’s positioning, not today’s price action.

Confirmed-opening single-name flow leaned defensively across semiconductors, large-cap tech, and crypto proxy equities, with put premium outweighing call interest in chip names, mega-cap software, and crypto-linked stocks — suggesting a broad hedging or repositioning bias rather than outright directional panic. Index and ETF flow reinforced that read, with substantial confirmed-opening put structures in IWM across multiple expiries pointing to active institutional demand for small-cap downside protection, while near-dated put activity in Bitcoin-linked ETFs remained difficult to classify cleanly given deep-ITM execution and ambiguous trade intent.

Options angle

VIX closed at 15.74 (+2.21%), mildly elevated but consistent with the low-vol bull regime. The more informative read sits in the term structure: VIX1D printed at 10.59 — indicating the market was not pricing a large overnight event into Thursday’s close — while front-month VIX futures settled near 17.30, a roughly 155-basis-point premium over spot. With May Non-Farm Payrolls releasing at 14:30 CET this afternoon, that futures premium reflects calendar risk from the upcoming CPI print (10 June) and FOMC meeting (16–17 June) rather than immediate session fear. SKEW closed at 142.15 (+3.87%), at elevated levels, indicating continued demand for OTM downside protection even as headline VIX remained contained. The gap between implied vol (VIX at 15.74) and 20-day realised vol (8.9%) is notable — IV is running at approximately 1.8x realised, a historical environment where premium-selling structures have tended to be more competitive relative to premium-buying alternatives once a near-term catalyst resolves.

Strategy insight – Post-event iron condor on an index. With implied volatility running at approximately 1.8x recent realised vol and the VIX1D at just 10.59 heading into this afternoon’s NFP release, the vol-selling window typically opens after the data print rather than before. An iron condor — selling an OTM call spread and an OTM put spread simultaneously — profits when the underlying stays within the short strikes through expiry and may capture the IV compression that tends to follow a resolved macro event. Structuring the trade after the data removes the directional binary of the release itself while retaining access to the vol premium that built ahead of it. The maximum loss occurs if the underlying makes a large move beyond either short strike: one side of the condor moves into-the-money, and the position can lose up to the width of the affected spread, minus the net premium collected.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.

Strategy insight – Put debit spread as a cost-efficient hedge in a high-SKEW environment. SKEW at 142 reflects above-average demand for OTM downside protection, a level that tends to inflate the premium cost of outright put purchases relative to a neutral-skew baseline. A put debit spread — buying a closer-to-the-money put and simultaneously selling a further-OTM put at a lower strike in the same expiry — preserves directional downside exposure while reducing the net premium paid against that elevated skew. This structure is most relevant where a hedger has a specific downside level in mind rather than an open-ended tail view. The maximum loss is limited to the net debit paid for the spread if the underlying stays above the long put strike at expiry; maximum gain is capped at the difference between the two strikes, minus the net premium paid.

Conclusion

Thursday’s session delivered a rotation story, not a market breakdown: Broadcom’s AI guidance miss absorbed some excess in semiconductor valuations while financials, healthcare, and value names picked up the capital. Today’s May NFP print is the next variable — it arrives at 14:30 CET with index futures already pointing lower and Asian markets under significant pressure, so the directional outcome of the data could amplify or reverse the current pre-market setup. For options traders, managing exposure through the event rather than ahead of it remains the more defensible posture.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.

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Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

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London Quick Take - 5 June - Today's nonfarm payrolls doesn't have to be a big number and AI trade gets a check as Broadcom disappoints

Fri, 05 Jun 2026 06:42:00 Z

Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.

Today’s US jobs report is going to be super important for how the market views the Fed’s next move as we await the first meeting with new chairman Kevin Warsh in a couple of weeks. The headline print is expected to come in around 85k, down from the +115k in April and 150k average over the last two months. Unemployment is seen steady at 4.3%, with average hourly earnings +0.3% mom, +3.4% yoy. We seem to have this low-fire, low-hire market – Jolts job openings highest in two years, quits rate lowest since 2020, ADP report this week highest since January 2025...all adds to signs of resilience in the labour market and inflation risks mattering more to the Fed than employment. The key is that the US doesn't need to be creating lots more jobs anymore.

Warsh indicated in his confirmation hearing that he expects productivity gains from AI to allow for lower rates. However, he assumes the role at a time when the effects of the Iran war are once again pushing up inflation. The effect of AI may well be deflationary in the long term - but not yet seems to be the answer. (My own view FWIW is that we are in higher inflation paradigm of 3-4% being the new normal for all kinds of reasons such as deglobalisation, fragmentation, war, etc etc, and it’s not about to go away soon).

Markets have swung decisively away from pricing in rate cuts this year to pricing in a hike by December. My expectation is for the Fed to swing behind a rate hike even sooner due to the strength of the labour market and rising inflation. June will see the FOMC relinquish its easing bias, and we could have a hike as early as July. This will form a key test of the Fed’s independence under the new regime for a hike will put Warsh quickly on a collision course with the President.

The headline NFP doesn't need to be big anymore to support employment growth. A rapid decline in immigration already lowered the so-called breakeven rate for employment down to around 85k (today's consensus number incidentally) in 2025. And the breakeven rate for employment may decline even further, with the Fed noting in an April paper that "the rapid slowing of net immigration may translate into such a large drop in labor force growth that the breakeven pace could fall to nearly zero, requiring less than 10,000 new jobs per month in 2026". The implications are clear - any growth in potential GDP will need to come entirely from productivity growth. It also means the risks for the Fed are skewed increasingly towards the inflation side of its dual mandate.

More on what to expect from a Warsh Fed here.

The AI rally looks tired and ripe for pullback: Tech has taken a bit of a bashing for another day, following the soft read from Broadcom which has prompted some profit-taking across AI-linked names. Cue the flip from NDX to DJIA; while the Nasdaq slipped a touch the Dow Jones rallied 1.7% for a record close and the S&P rose 0.4%. Banks were strong performers and non-tech names rallied. Broadcom tumbled 13% as it missed on guidance, dragging Micron and AMD lower, while Nvidia and Alphabet rallied. It was less of a rotation out of broad tech and more a shift out of some of the most bid-up and most profitable trades in semiconductors and hardware stocks, which means South Korea is down 5% today, led down by its AI hardware giants. Let’s see if Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang can shore things up as he embarks on a visit of South Korea. His words can move stocks a lot. Nvidia has certified SK Hynix, Samsung and Micron – the three biggest memory chipmakers - to mass-produce and supply HBM4 for its AI accelerators. But IPOs are incoming and we are clearly seeing some signs of a liquidity rotation with Bitcoin set for one of its worst weeks in months as outflows continue from ETFs and prices testing the Feb lows. Bitcoin is a good indicator of liquidity and risk narratives, and it's saying there is something going on. Reiterating what I wrote yesterday, I still think June could see some further flow-driven pullbacks in US stocks and broader risk assets - look to potential volatility catalysts coming from not just the Middle East but a sooner-than-expected Fed tightening impulse and IPO crunch, which could trigger selling across stocks.

There’s not much steer from the US-Iran talks for us to hang much on. Oman’s Mina al Fahal terminal suspended oil loading following an explosion thought to have been caused by a drone strike. Hezbollah rejected a US-brokered ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel. Meanwhile US President Trump said he would be “honoured” to meet Iran’s Supreme Leader “if we make a deal”.

Easing of supply worries? Almost 40 stranded ships have left the Strait of Hormuz over the past three weeks in coordination with the US Navy, according to Lloyd’s List. But then we have the reality in the tanks - which is that inventories are being drawn down quickly and the real test for the market will be if front month futures spike because of a genuine shortness of barrels. So far China has cut imports a lot, which is keeping things OK for the time being. So, there is a bit of a sense of a reopening trade being on – Dow up, USD and oil down the last two days after pushing up Mon through Wednesday. Brent has eased to $94.50, but is a little above yesterday’s lows at just under $94. European shares were mixed - the FTSE 100 trades flat with little direction within its 10,300-400 range. Gold bounced clean off its 200-day moving average but is trading an increasingly narrow range that is calling for a breakout. Sterling trades a little firmer against the broadly softer dollar.

A UK tech story: Raspberry Pi shares surged to a record high on a strong earnings update. Management report profitability “materially ahead” of the first half of 2025 with earnings on track to be “significantly ahead of current market expectations”. Adjusted EBITDA for the first half of 2026 is projected to exceed $38mn, which is nearly double the $19.4mn reported during the same period in 2025. Shares leapt +21%.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities United Kingdom Highlighted articles UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer FR US Actualites et Analyses Trump Version 2 - Investors Volatility investor TagFeed En hurtig tanke

Asia Market Quick Take – 05 June, 2026

Fri, 05 Jun 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 5 June, 2026

Key points:

Macro: Hezbollah rejects US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon
Equities: Dow gains 1.7% to close at all time high,
FX: USDJPY at 160 previous intervention level
Commodities: Oil falls due to hopes of Middle East resolution
Fixed income: Treasury yield fell across the curve

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

Trump is reportedly reluctant to resume full-scale war with Iran and would end the truce only if Tehran kills US troops. US–Iran talks show little progress, hindered by Israel’s operations in Lebanon.
Hezbollah rejected a US-mediated Israel–Lebanon ceasefire, though Trump says the group has approached the White House about ending hostilities.
US initial jobless claims rose 13,000 to 225,000 in the week ending May 30, above the 215,000 consensus, partly reflecting Memorial Day volatility, while continuing claims slipped 8,000 to 1.777 million.
Japan’s average cash earnings rose 3.5% year-on-year in April, the fastest pace since December 2024 and 52nd straight gain, with wages up across all major sectors. Inflation-adjusted real wages increased 1.9%, extending their rise to four months.
US nonfarm unit labor costs rose 1.8% in Q1, down from 2.1% and below the 2.3% estimate, as compensation growth slowed and productivity edged up. Manufacturing unit labor costs increased 2.2%, and year-on-year overall labor costs were up 0.5%.
US employers announced 97,006 job cuts in May, up from 83,387 in April and the highest May total since 2020. AI was the top driver, with tech leading (38,242 cuts), followed by transportation, services, and fintech. Year-to-date cuts total 397,755, 43% below last year’s federal layoff–inflated figure and roughly in line with 2024.
Eurozone retail sales fell 0.4% m/m in April after a 0.8% rise in March, with non-food and fuel down and food up. Germany and Spain saw declines, while France rose 0.3%. Year-on-year, sales were up 1%, down from 2.1% in March.

Equities:

US — The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 875 points (+1.7%) to a record close of 51,562 on Thursday, its 15th record close of 2026, led by healthcare and financials. UnitedHealth rose 5.2% after a Bank of America upgrade, while Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, American Express and Visa all gained over 3%. The S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 7,593, its 10th gain in 11 sessions. The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5% as Broadcom tumbled 12% after its AI chip revenue guidance disappointed. After hours, Nasdaq 100 futures fell a further 0.9%, Guidewire dropped 16%, and Lululemon slipped 11% after reporting Q1 EPS of $1.69, missing estimates slightly.
EU — European equities rebounded on Thursday after an initial AI-driven selloff. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.5% to 624.45, led by healthcare. The Euro Stoxx 50 gained 0.82% to 6,103. The DAX rose 0.6% to 24,945, with SAP the top gainer at +5.5%. The FTSE 100 edged up 0.27% to 10,360. Abivax surged 18% on a reassessment of clinical trial data, Remy Cointreau rose as much as 15% on strong earnings, and Maersk gained 8.3%. Pirelli fell 4.2% after Grizzly Research disclosed a short position citing governance concerns.
Asia — Asian equities are broadly lower on Friday morning, with the Kospi the standout underperformer. South Korea's Kospi opened down 3.7% and extended losses to as much as 5%, with the Korea Exchange activating a sidecar mechanism to halt program selling after KOSPI200 futures fell over 5%. SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics and SK Square are the biggest drags, tracking the US chip sector's 2.2% decline overnight. The Kosdaq fell as much as 2.9%. The Nikkei is tracking lower alongside the Kospi, while the Topix is near flat given its more diversified sector exposure. The Hang Seng closed down 379 points at 25,253 on Thursday, with mainland Chinese investors reportedly rotating out of Hong Kong stocks and back into onshore AI-related names. The STI is also softer. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is down approximately 1%.

Earnings this week:

Friday: Sectra, Mr Price Group, ABM Industries, Foschini Group

FX:

The Korean won weakened to its lowest level since 2009 against the dollar, touching 1,540.55 on Thursday, as foreign investors sold approximately $4.5 billion of local stocks amid ongoing Iran war concerns. The dollar opened at around 1,529 won on Friday morning.
The Indonesian rupiah breached 18,000 per dollar for the first time ever on Thursday, weighed down by fiscal concerns, sovereign rating downgrade risk and a domestic equity selloff.
The Japanese yen remains under pressure near 160 per dollar. Japan's Finance Minister Katayama reiterated readiness to act on FX at any time, noting that bold actions are permitted under the US-Japan FX statement. Japan's foreign reserves fell by $75.6 billion in May, suggesting the government may have tapped overseas assets to fund FX intervention.
The Chinese yuan is near 6.77 per dollar, up over 3% year-to-date, making it Asia's best-performing currency. TD Securities sees potential for further CNY appreciation if portfolio inflows into China's tech rally accelerate, with an end-year target of 6.70.
The dollar eased retracing part of Wednesday’s biggest gain since 19 May as an Israel–Lebanon ceasefire weighed on oil; Most G‑10 currencies rose while NOK and CAD lagged, and traders awaited US/Canada jobs data.
USDCAD hit 1.3925 (highest since 7 Apr) before paring;
EURSEK fell 0.2% to 10.8919 on softer-than‑expected Swedish core inflation; EURCHF slipped 0.2% to 0.9167 and USDCHF dipped 0.3% to 0.7895 after Swiss inflation undershot forecasts.

Commodities:

Oil prices fell on hopes of a Middle East diplomatic resolution following the tentative Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, though the broader backdrop remains elevated given the ongoing US-Iran conflict and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Copper is in focus ahead of the US Commerce Department's June 30 deadline to deliver an updated recommendation on import tariffs for refined copper. Citi sees copper potentially reaching $14,500/tonne in June as tariff fears fuel bullish sentiment, while the premium of US prices over global peers has widened again, prompting renewed metal flows into the US.
Commerzbank raised its year-end targets for gold to $4,800/oz and silver to $80/oz, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures and geopolitical risk from the Iran conflict. Energy analysts warn that rapid inventory drawdowns from the Strait of Hormuz closure are likely to deliver fuel price shocks, with prices across the energy complex expected to remain higher for longer.

Fixed income:

US Treasury yields fell modestly, with the 10-year yield declining 2.5bps to 4.471% and the 30-year falling 1.9bps to 4.975%, as easing oil prices and a softer risk tone supported bonds. The 30-year yield is now down nine of the past 11 trading sessions and off 20bps from its 52-week high of 5.18% hit on May 19.
Large options trades in the Treasury market this week targeted a move higher in 10-year yields, with a $15 million put position on Wednesday targeting 4.70% and a $5 million put on Thursday targeting 4.65% by end of July, signalling that some market participants are positioning for a renewed bond selloff.
JGBs edged higher in early Tokyo trade, tracking overnight Treasury gains. However, with the dollar recovering to around 160 yen, Barclays' Japan rates strategists note that expectations for a BOJ rate hike in June are resurfacing, which could limit further JGB upside.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance. The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.

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Copper rally faces tariff roulette, but fundamentals remain tight

Thu, 04 Jun 2026 12:30:00 Z

Stretched, tight and increasingly strategic

Key points:

Copper is moving from being “Dr Copper” to “strategic copper”. It still reflects global growth, but it increasingly reflects energy security, industrial policy and infrastructure resilience.
Mine supply remains the market’s weak link as the repeated disruption of large, complex mines has exposed a market where replacement supply is slow, capital intensive and operationally vulnerable
A widening COMEX-LME spread is once again pulling metal across the Atlantic as US tariff speculation becomes a global tightening mechanism
Grid investment, AI data centres, EV infrastructure, defence capex and energy security all point to copper demand that may prove less price-sensitive than traditional construction or white-goods demand.

Copper has extended its rally in 2026, trading around 14% higher year-to-date and roughly one-third above levels seen a year ago. While the magnitude of the move has raised concerns about demand destruction and speculative excess, the underlying story continues to strengthen. Mine supply is struggling to keep pace with demand, smelters are fighting over scarce concentrate, strategic stockpiling remains widespread, and US tariff uncertainty is pulling metal away from the rest of the world.

At the same time, copper demand is becoming increasingly tied to strategic sectors such as power infrastructure, electrification, artificial intelligence, and defence. This shift may not eliminate the commodity’s traditional cyclical tendencies, but it is helping create a market where demand is potentially less sensitive to economic slowdowns and high prices than in previous cycles.

As a result, copper increasingly finds itself at the intersection of industrial growth, energy security, technological expansion, and geopolitical competition.

Supply remains the market’s weak link

The bullish copper narrative ultimately begins with supply, and here the market continues to face challenges. After major disruptions at Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula contributed to an estimated 1.5 million tonnes of lost production in 2025, supply disappointments have continued this year. Downgrades from major producers, lower production guidance in Chile, and slower-than-expected recoveries at several key operations have kept the market on edge. Industry estimates suggest supply disruptions have already removed around 450,000 tonnes from expected production this year.

The problem is not necessarily a lack of resources. Rather, it is the increasing difficulty of bringing new supply online quickly and efficiently. Large copper projects require significant capital investment, long development timelines, complex permitting processes, and stable operating environments. At the same time, ore grades continue to decline at many mature operations, increasing production costs and reducing operational flexibility.

The result is a market where supply growth remains persistently vulnerable to disruptions, delays, and underperformance.

Negative treatment charges signal extreme tightness

One of the clearest signs of stress within the copper supply chain can be found in the treatment charge market. Treatment charges, the fees miners pay smelters to process concentrate into refined metal, have collapsed to deeply negative levels, with spot assessments recently heard around minus USD 115 to 118 per tonne.

While treatment charges are often overlooked outside the industry, they provide one of the clearest real-time indicators of concentrate availability. Negative treatment charges effectively signal that smelters are competing aggressively for feedstock because there is simply not enough concentrate available.

The collapse reflects the combination of weaker mine production, delayed project ramp-ups, and constrained scrap availability. Chinese refined copper production has already shown signs of slowing, and further downside risks remain if concentrate shortages persist.

For now, strong sulphuric acid prices are helping support smelter margins and reducing the risk of widespread production cuts. However, they do little to change the underlying message: the bottleneck remains firmly upstream at the mine level.

Falling TC charges and SHFE stockpiles underpin tight supply story - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Copper demand is becoming increasingly strategic

Historically, copper has been viewed as one of the purest indicators of global economic activity. Its widespread use across construction, manufacturing, and consumer goods earned it the nickname “Dr Copper”. That relationship still matters, but the composition of demand is changing.

An increasing share of future copper demand growth is expected to come from power generation, transmission infrastructure, electric vehicles, battery systems, artificial intelligence data centres, and defence-related spending. Much of the copper demand associated with AI is indirect, driven not by the servers themselves but by the enormous investments required in grids, substations, transformers, and power distribution systems.

At the same time, governments across Europe and North America are increasingly viewing electricity networks as critical national infrastructure. Ageing grids, electrification targets, and energy security concerns are driving investment programmes that are likely to extend well beyond the normal business cycle.

This evolution matters because these sectors tend to be less sensitive to economic slowdowns and high commodity prices than traditional cyclical demand sources such as housing, appliances, and consumer electronics. In short, copper demand is increasingly being driven by the need to generate, move, store, and secure electricity.

Tariffs are distorting the global market

Another major theme that has supported copper last year and again recently has been the growing divergence between the US and the rest of the world. The at times widening premium of COMEX copper over London Metal Exchange prices has created a powerful incentive for metal to flow into the United States ahead of a potential decision on refined copper import tariffs.

As a result, the United States has attracted significant volumes of refined copper imports that does not reflect its relative small share of overall global demand, so while inventories build in the U.S. availability is reduced elsewhere, tightening conditions across the rest of the market.

The upcoming US Commerce Department report, due by the end of June, represents a potentially important catalyst. A recommendation supporting future tariffs could encourage further inventory accumulation ahead of implementation, while a decision not to proceed could trigger an unwinding of the current premium and some temporary pressure on prices.

For now, however, tariff uncertainty continues to act as a tightening mechanism for the global market.

COMEX and London Copper priced in cents per pound - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Strategic stockpiling may be creating a higher price floor

Visible inventories have increased this past year, particularly in COMEX warehouses. On the surface, this might appear inconsistent with the bullish supply narrative. However, inventory levels increasingly reflect strategic behaviour rather than pure market fundamentals.

The concentration of metal in the United States ahead of a possible tariff regime highlights how policy considerations are influencing inventory decisions. At the same time, strategic stockpiling by governments, industrial users, and supply-chain managers appears to be limiting the amount of copper available to the wider market. It highlights an emerging trend with consumers of key commodities, such as copper, moving from a "just in time" to a "just in case" strategy.

This development may help explain why copper prices continue to remain elevated despite periodic signs of slower physical demand. The market is increasingly assigning value to security of supply, not simply immediate consumption needs.

Technical focus: support holding, upside targets in view

COMEX copper continues to trade within a constructive technical structure. Following its failure near USD 6.72 per pound on 13 May, prices corrected lower before finding support around USD 6.15, the 31.8% retracement of the March to May rally as well as a former resistance area that has now turned into an important support zone. The successful retest reinforces the broader uptrend, which remains characterised by a sequence of higher highs and higher lows.

As long as copper holds above the USD 6.15 area, the technical outlook remains supportive, with a renewed challenge and break above USD 6.72 opening up for a move towards USD 7.00 per pound, a major psychological milestone. Conversely, a decisive move back below support would weaken the bullish technical picture and raise the risk of a deeper correction, with support - as per the chart - after that being USD 6 followed USD 5.8.

HG Copper - Source: Saxo

The outlook: bullish, but not without risks

Several major investment banks have recently upgraded their copper outlooks. Forecasts for sizeable refined market deficits over the next two years have pushed average price expectations steadily higher, with some analysts now discussing the possibility of prices reaching USD 15,000 per tonne in London against a current price closer to USD 14,000 should supply shortfalls persist.

While supply growth continues to disappoint, strategic demand drivers remain intact, and policy developments are reinforcing concerns about future availability. However, the market is no longer cheap.

Copper is trading close to record levels, and high prices will inevitably test demand elasticity, particularly in China where buyers have historically shown sensitivity to elevated prices. Early signs of slowing orders from parts of the manufacturing sector suggest that some demand destruction risks remain present.

In addition, the outcome of the US tariff review introduces a significant binary risk. While tariff implementation could tighten the market further, a decision not to proceed would likely remove an important source of support.

Ultimately, copper’s long-term story remains one of tightening supply meeting increasingly strategic demand. But after a powerful rally, the next phase is likely to require confirmation from both physical market fundamentals and policy developments. The bull market remains intact, but it has become increasingly dependent on delivering the supply deficits that many now expect.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

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Educational resources:
A short guide to trading crude oil
The basics of trading wheat online
A short guide to trading gold
A short guide to trading copper
A short guide to trading silver
Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?

Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

More from the author
Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on Twitter and BlueSky social media platforms

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Commodities Iran USA Inflation Copper

We need to talk about Kevin: What to expect from the Fed under Warsh

Thu, 04 Jun 2026 11:58:00 Z

Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.

Key Points

Kevin Warsh helms his first meeting as Fed chair on 16-17 June
Trump wants rate cuts but the market has shifted to expect a hike by the end of the year
Warsh will usher in big changes to the way the Fed communicates to markets

The new head of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, takes over at a key moment for the institution amid questions about the central bank’s independence. It’s also an important phase in the economic cycle as inflation picks up and questions over the strength of the US economy are being answered. And it’s a key moment for financial markets as investors grapple with the powerful tides of soaring AI investment and corporate earnings against a heightened geopolitical risk profile and stretched valuations.

So, what do we expect from Warsh and the Fed he is taking over?

Warsh takes on the chairmanship after a period of uncertainty and against the backdrop of political pressure on the Fed from the White House. It’s also a period of significant (relatively speaking) division among Fed policymakers over the path of interest rates. However, the recent uptick in inflation and resilience in the economy is trending towards a higher degree of consensus than may have been the case before the Iran war.

Will he lower rates? President Trump has spent the last year lambasting Warsh’s predecessor, Jerome Powell for, in his eyes, a failure to lower interest rates enough. The main question for the market is whether Warsh is about to do what Trump wants and lower rates.

Warsh indicated in his confirmation hearing that he expects productivity gains from AI to allow for lower rates. However, he assumes the role at a time when the effects of the Iran war are once again pushing up inflation. The effect of AI may well be deflationary, but not yet seems to be the answer. (My own view FWIW is that we are in higher inflation paradigm of 3-4% being the new normal for all kinds of reasons such as deglobalisation, fragmentation, war, etc etc, and it’s not about to go away soon).

A simpler Fed: Warsh has been critical of what he sees as mission creep by the Fed; for instance, efforts to address climate change or social inequality have been examples of the central bank getting over its skis in his view. A key change expected under Warsh is for a trimmed-down day-to-day role for the Fed in financial markets. Warsh will reinforce the Fed’s core mandate of price stability and maximum employment. In short, the Fed will keep to its knitting: monetary policy. But whether in reality it is drawn into political debates may rest on the actions of Trump.

Balance sheet reduction: Warsh has been clear that he favours using interest rates as the primary tool for monetary policy, and has indicated a preference to pare the Fed’s balance sheet, which has ballooned to more than $6.7 trillion. A process of actively selling Treasuries – as the Bank of England is currently doing with its stock of gilts – would tend to raise yields, steepen the curve and increase term premia by increasingly the supply of bonds, just as concerns about debts and deficits are increasing.

However, it’s not that simple. Recently Warsh has argued for a new Treasury-Fed accord that could provide a framework for the central bank and Treasury to work together on shrinking its balance sheet. The Fed is now growing its balance sheet having stopped its last round of quantitative tightening in December 2025.

And the last round of QT was barely noticed by markets – like “watching paint dry” in the words of former Fed chair Janet Yellen. I’d expect the Warsh-led to carefully and mindfully find the right mechanisms for reducing the balance sheet without causing a taper tantrum, such as giving large banks more flexibility outside of reserve holdings and shifting issuance towards short-dated maturities.

A new way to look at inflation: Warsh has been critical of the Fed’s shift in 2020 to flexible average inflation targeting, which allows for temporary overshoots above the 2% target. Warsh favours a stricter adherence to the 2% goal. He has also urged the central bank to look at alternatives to the standard gauges of inflation, such as the PCE and CPI indices. Warsh wants the Fed to pay attention to measures of inflation that strip out the noise from extreme month-to-month movements. Several indicators exist but the most widely cited is the Dallas Fed’s trimmed mean, which was running at 2.3% in April vs 3.3% for the core PCE, the Fed’s current preferred gauge. The Dallas Fed trims more off the top than the bottom of prices, which means it was late to show up the 2021 surge in inflation. The implication is that Warsh may prefer to sit out periods of higher inflation – but it’s unclear whether this will impact policy immediately and we know that any changes to the way the Fed views inflation will not come overnight. We may assume that it means he’s more likely to favour staying easier for longer, or even cutting, but the economic conditions do not seem to favour this scenario right now.

In short, we have no real obvious view on whether he would favour cutting now or not; a stricter adherence to 2% suggests willingness to tighten (allowing for the strictures of the dual mandate), while a preference for the trimmed mean gauge and his stated views on AI indicate a preference for lower rates. And it’s always worth reiterating that the Fed is a committee, not a dictatorship.

Guidance and forward-looking statements: Warsh wants to end the practice of issuing forward guidance whereby the Fed signals where it expects interest rates to be in the future. This would mark a significant shift from the practice of the past and would be a step-change from what other major central banks do.

“I don’t believe in forward guidance,” Warsh said during his Senate confirmation hearing in May. “I don’t believe that I should be previewing for you what a future decision might be.”

This means the dot plot – where individual Fed members set out where they think rates will be in the future and which has become a key tool for markets to gauge the likely path for rates – could become a thing of the past. Intended initially as a soft form of guidance, it’s becoming a key anchoring mechanism for markets and therefore would be a material change if abandoned.

Going beyond ditching the dot plot, Warsh is also likely to abandon the use of language in the Fed’s statements that indicates the path for rates – the ‘bias’ as it’s commonly referred to.

The Fed maintained an easing bias last month but a trio of dissenters - Neel Kashkari, Beth Hammack, Lorie Logan wanted to remove from the statement in May. Since the last meeting Christopher Waller and Lisa Cook have also said they believe the easing bias should be dropped from the FOMC statement. Given the shift within the committee it could allow Warsh to do something new and drop all guidance language from the June statement.

This of course presents potential problems – how do financial markets react to an abrupt change in the way the Fed communicates?

The first indication of what’s in store is likely at the June 16/17 meeting. While Warsh may be intent on sweeping reforms, it will not be instant: the 19 members of the FOMC all have a voice. He will need to build consensus and reforms will require working groups to look at changes and their implications.

Dropping the bias language from the June meeting to a more neutral stance will align with how increasingly members are feeling about the economy and inflation. But further reforms will take longer. This may be all that he can effect immediately, but the market focus will be on what path policy rates take – on that front it may be increasingly difficult for Warsh to avoid tightening sooner than expected, despite what Trump may want.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Bonds United Kingdom Highlighted articles UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer FR US Actualites et Analyses Trump Version 2 - Investors Volatility investor TagFeed En hurtig tanke

Options Brief - Streak snaps, payrolls loom - 4 June 2026

Thu, 04 Jun 2026 10:30:00 Z

The S&P 500’s nine-day winning streak ended on 3 June, knocked back by higher oil, renewed US-Iran tension and a Broadcom AI-chip outlook that disappointed after the close. The index move was modest, but the options market reacted in a more telling way.

Options Brief - Streak snaps, payrolls loom - 4 June 2026

A nine-day winning streak ended on oil, geopolitics and a Broadcom AI wobble, and the front end of the volatility curve woke up first.

Renewed US-Iran fighting lifted oil and bond yields through the 3 June session while Broadcom’s AI-chip outlook disappointed after the close, ending Wall Street’s nine-session run and reintroducing event risk just as the market heads into today’s jobless claims and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls. The headline move was modest, but underneath it the volatility term structure shifted in a way that matters more to options traders than the index level itself. The full macro picture is in Saxo’s Market Quick Take – 4 June 2026.

Market snapshot

S&P 500: 7,553.68 (-0.74%), ending a nine-session winning streak
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 50,687.07 (-1.21%)
Nasdaq Composite: 26,853.98 (-0.89%)
10-year Treasury yield: 4.491% (+4.6bps), with crude near the upper end of Brent’s recent 90-100 dollar range
Market regime: Low vol bull – VIX 16.06, 20-day realised vol 9.9% (stable), S&P 500 +6.1% above its 50-day moving average

Options flow sentiment

Based on end-of-day 3 June 2026 – yesterday’s positioning, not today’s price action.

Single-name flow leaned bullish, with confirmed-opening call demand concentrated in mega-cap tech and semiconductors; were those calls dealer-sold, market makers would hedge by buying the underlying, a mildly upside-supportive bias. Index and ETF flow told a more defensive story, with broad put demand across the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and semiconductor ETFs, suggesting portfolios are adding single-name upside while keeping index-level protection on.

Options angle

The VIX closed at 16.06, up 1.84%, but the action was at the front end: the 1-day VIX jumped 29.3% to 11.48 as traders bid short-dated protection into today’s jobless claims and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls. The term structure stayed upward-sloping (1-day 11.48, 9-day 13.41, 30-day 16.06), so the event premium is sitting in the very front rather than across the curve. SPX options price a move of roughly ±0.74% through Friday, and the front expiry still shows a moderate downside skew, with puts richer than equivalent calls but well below stress levels.

Strategy insight – Calendar spread to harvest the front-end vol spike. With the 1-day VIX up nearly 29% while the 9-day and 30-day measures barely moved, the front of the term structure now carries most of the event premium. A calendar spread, selling a near-dated option and buying a longer-dated option at the same strike, profits if that elevated near-term implied volatility deflates once the data passes while the back-dated leg holds its value. Centre the strikes near spot and place the short leg in the expiry that captures payrolls. The main risk is a large directional move away from the chosen strike, which erodes both legs and can turn the structure into a loss.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.

Strategy insight – Jade lizard to monetise the put skew in a bull regime. Moderate downside skew means index puts are priced richer than comparable calls, which rewards selling that premium while the low-vol-bull backdrop keeps a constructive lean intact. A jade lizard, a short out-of-the-money put plus a short out-of-the-money call spread, collects enough credit to remove upside risk entirely while leaving a defined downside exposure. It fits a neutral-to-mildly-bullish view better than an outright short put because the call spread cheapens the position without adding tail risk above. The main risk is a sharp decline below the short put strike, where losses build much like owning the underlying from that level.

Conclusion

The low-vol bull regime is still intact, but the streak ending on oil, geopolitics and Broadcom’s AI wobble has pulled event risk into the next 48 hours. In our view the edge is in the shape of the curve, not the direction: front-end premium is rich against a still-calm back end, which favours selling near-dated event vol over chasing the move. That makes this an environment that rewards patience over conviction until payrolls clears the deck.

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More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

AI winners hit a higher bar as investors ask tougher questions

Thu, 04 Jun 2026 09:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Strong earnings are not always enough when valuations already expect near-perfect execution.
Artificial intelligence is boosting demand, but also lifting spending, competition and investor scrutiny.
The key lesson is to separate business quality from share-price expectations.

Good earnings used to be the easy part. A company beat estimates, lifted guidance, smiled politely, and the share price usually did the rest. Not this week.

Broadcom, Palo Alto Networks and CrowdStrike all reported strong results around 2 and 3 June 2026. Each sits close to one of the market’s biggest themes: artificial intelligence (AI), cybersecurity and the infrastructure needed to run the digital economy. Yet their shares fell after the numbers.

That is the useful lesson for investors. The market is not saying these businesses are broken. It is saying expectations are no longer cheap. When a theme becomes popular, investors stop asking “is this growing?” and start asking “is it growing fast enough, profitably enough, and clearly enough to justify the price?” Wall Street can be a demanding dinner guest.

The bar has moved higher

Broadcom makes chips and infrastructure software. In simple terms, it supplies some of the parts that help data centres move, process and manage huge amounts of information. That matters because AI is not magic in the cloud. It is electricity, chips, networking equipment and software, stacked together at industrial scale.

Broadcom’s fiscal second-quarter results showed the strength of that demand. Revenue rose 48% to 22.2 billion USD, while AI semiconductor revenue jumped 143% to 10.8 billion USD. The company also guided for AI semiconductor revenue of 16.0 billion USD in the next quarter.

Those numbers are not small. They are “finance department needs a bigger spreadsheet” numbers. But the shares still fell sharply in extended trading after revenue slightly missed Wall Street forecasts and the company kept its longer-term AI sales target broadly unchanged. That was enough to disappoint a market that had already priced in a lot of good news.

This is the first common thread. In AI infrastructure, investors are rewarding acceleration, but they are punishing any hint that expectations have run ahead of reality. Broadcom is still growing fast. The question is whether the share price had already assumed even faster growth.

Cybersecurity is strong, but not simple

Palo Alto Networks and CrowdStrike tell the same story from a different corner of technology. Both companies help organisations protect their systems, data and users from cyberattacks. As AI spreads, this job becomes more important. More digital tools create more doors. Cybercriminals, sadly, do not take long summer holidays.

Palo Alto reported fiscal third-quarter revenue of 3.0 billion USD, up 31% from a year earlier. Its next-generation security annual recurring revenue, a measure of repeat subscription income from newer security products, rose 60% to 8.1 billion USD. Remaining performance obligation, which is contracted revenue not yet recognised, rose 36% to 18.4 billion USD.

Again, strong numbers. Yet the stock fell. Part of the issue is that acquisitions boosted growth, including CyberArk and Chronosphere. Acquisitions can make a company stronger, but they also make the picture harder to read. Investors want to know how much growth comes from the original business and how much comes from buying another one. When that line becomes less clear, the market often reaches for a discount.

CrowdStrike also beat expectations. The company reported first-quarter revenue of 1.39 billion USD and ending annual recurring revenue of 5.51 billion USD. It also raised its full-year revenue outlook. But its shares fell in extended trading after operating expenses rose 15%, partly as the company invests more in AI and product development.

That is the second common thread. AI is not only a revenue opportunity. It is also a spending cycle. Companies need engineers, data, infrastructure, security tools and new products. The market likes investment when it creates growth, but it still wants proof that the growth will turn into durable profits.

The market reaction is not as strange as it looks

For retail investors, the most important point is that share prices react to expectations, not just results. A good quarter can disappoint if investors expected a great one. A great quarter can disappoint if the valuation already assumed perfection. This is why earnings season can look irrational from the outside and painfully logical from the inside.

Broadcom shows how AI hardware expectations have become extremely high. Palo Alto shows how cybersecurity investors now care about the quality and visibility of growth, not just the size of it. CrowdStrike shows that even strong recurring revenue can be overshadowed by rising costs if investors worry about margins.

The broader industry message is clear. AI remains a powerful demand driver. Data centres need chips and networking. Companies need better security. Customers want platforms that do more with fewer tools. But the easy phase of the trade may be maturing. The next phase is about execution, pricing power and cash flow, not just attaching “AI” to a slide deck and hoping the stock market applauds.

Risks to watch

The first risk is valuation. If a company trades at a high price because investors expect rapid growth, even a small disappointment can cause a large move. The early warning sign is a stock falling on good news.

The second risk is spending discipline. AI can improve products, but it can also raise costs before it raises profits. Investors can watch whether operating margins, free cash flow and hiring trends support the growth story.

The third risk is visibility. For acquisitive companies such as Palo Alto, investors need to understand what is organic growth and what is bought growth. Both can be valuable, but they are not the same thing.

Investor playbook

Watch whether guidance rises faster than expectations, not only whether it rises.
Compare revenue growth with margin trends to see whether scale is improving.
Separate AI demand stories from AI profit stories. They are cousins, not twins.
Treat sharp post-earnings moves as information about expectations, not automatic verdicts on quality.

The price of perfection

The lesson from Broadcom, Palo Alto and CrowdStrike is not that strong technology companies suddenly became weak. It is that the market has become more selective. AI and cybersecurity remain important long-term themes, but popular themes can carry heavy expectations.

For investors, the useful question is not whether a company has exposure to AI. Many do. The better question is whether that exposure creates profitable growth at a price that already leaves room for imperfection. Good businesses can still be expensive stocks. In a hot market, even excellent earnings may need to bring their own fire extinguisher.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

The author does not hold any position in the financial instruments mentioned at the time of publication.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Theme - Artificial intelligence Artificial Intelligence

London Quick Take - 4 June - IPO deluge, Fed tightening and oil to $150...time for a pullback?

Thu, 04 Jun 2026 06:27:00 Z

Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.

Market sentiment is coming under pressure following yesterday’s pullback in US equities and the precarious nature of negotiations between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Israel and Lebanon have agreed to renew their ceasefire, which edges things in the right direction away from further escalation, though of course we have been here before and so on.

US equities slipped yesterday as oil prices and Treasury yields rose after the US and Iran exchanged strikes in apparent escalation of the largely frozen conflict. Tech weighed as the Nasdaq dipped 0.9% and the S&P 500 declined 0.75% to end their record run. The Dow was off by 1.2%. Nvidia and Microsoft both declined more than 3%, while Oracle and Palantir were down around 6% apiece. Meta outperformed after it unveiled plans to use AI to monetize its chat apps. Broadcom plunged after-hours on weak guidance and software sales. Marvell managed to extend its gains following's Tuesday's 32% jump on its way to becoming the next $1tn company.

The 10yr Treasury yield rose to 4.5% but has slipped back this morning as sentiment improved a little. Brent crude touched $99 yesterday but has eased to below $97 this morning, though it remains above where it settled Tuesday. Gold prices have pushed below the 23.6% Fib level to test the 200-day moving average at $4,422. The USD firmed yesterday and holds gains today with GBPUSD testing its 200-day line at 1.3420. With oil ticking down the FTSE 100 has ticked a little higher early Thursday with European bourses broadly firmer and US futures trade higher. The FTSE 100 remains broadly stuck in the 10,300-400 range for now and there is not a lot to really say about it for the time being.

I still think June could see some further flow-driven pullbacks in US stocks and broader risk assets - look to potential volatility catalysts coming from not just the Middle East but a sooner-than-expected Fed tightening impulse and IPO crunch, which could trigger selling across stocks. While the market does not see the Fed hiking until much later this year it could come much sooner. The increasingly robust signs from the labour market coupled with rising inflation provide the economic case and we know policymakers are moving in this direction – since the trio of dissenters (Neel Kashkari, Beth Hammack, Lorie Logan) in the last meeting Christopher Waller and Lisa Cook have also said they believe the easing bias should be dropped from the FOMC statement. Strong ISM services yesterday hit a three-month high. Private payrolls data yesterday hit their best gain since Jan 2025, off the back of the Jolts figures. Expect the Fed to ditch its easing bias this month (but not necessarily adopt a tightening bias) and move to hike in July. As markets adjust to this swifter pace of tightening we may see some further pullbacks in US stocks as the yield curve flattens out. Meanwhile, the upcoming mega IPO deluge represents a major liquidity exit event, and I see this net negative for stocks. Bitcoin has already shown the way, down –20% in the last month. And oil...while things are broadly going in the right direction in terms of talks being ongoing etc, I would caution that the real hit to sentiment will come when we finally exhaust usable inventories, as stockpiles are dwindling fast, which will push up front month crude futures abruptly. Both Chevron and Exxon have warned we will see $150 in the coming weeks. After such an aggressive rally and monster earnings growth now well priced there is plenty of scope for a consolidation.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities United Kingdom Highlighted articles UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer FR US Actualites et Analyses Trump Version 2 - Investors Volatility investor TagFeed En hurtig tanke

Market Quick Take - 4 June 2026

Thu, 04 Jun 2026 06:22:00 Z

Market Quick Take – 4 June 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

Equities: US and Europe slipped on oil and geopolitics, Asia followed lower as investors trimmed risk after an artificial intelligence-led rally
Volatility: VIX rises, payrolls in focus, Middle East tensions, Broadcom disappoints
Digital Assets: Bitcoin near three-month lows, ETF outflows persist, crypto proxies weaker, hedging activity increases
Commodities: Gold bounces from key support (again), oil fluctuates on mixed Middle East signals
Fixed Income: Treasuries fall on strong ADP numbers
Currencies: Dollar stays firm on Middle East tensions; USDJPY near 160 again
Macro: Eurozone April Retail Sales & US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims

Macro

The Middle East crisis remains fluid. Following Wednesday's escalation, which saw US forces strike an Iran-bound tanker and Iran retaliate with attacks against US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait as well as commercial shipping, Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a conditional ceasefire. However, the broader regional conflict remains unresolved and risks to energy supplies persist. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway that normally handles around one-fifth of global oil and LNG shipments, has recovered modestly but remains well below pre-conflict levels, continuing to support a significant geopolitical risk premium across energy markets.
The Republican-led House voted to curb US military involvement in Iran, marking a rare rebuke of President Trump and highlighting growing concerns within his own party about the economic and political costs of the conflict. While the resolution is unlikely to immediately affect military operations, as it still requires Senate approval, the vote underscores rising opposition to a prolonged war.
ISM Services PMI rose to 54.5 in May from 53.6 in April, beating expectations and marking a three-month high. Business activity, new orders, and inventories strengthened, while employment contracted for a third month amid hiring freezes. Price pressures hit their highest since August 2022, driven by fuel and petroleum-related products, as backlog growth slowed and supplier delivery performance weakened further.
US private payrolls rose by 122,000 in May, the strongest gain since January 2025 and above expectations. Hiring was broad-based, led by education and health services and trade/transportation/utilities. Pay growth held at 4.4% for job-stayers and rose to 6.6% for job-switchers.
The US administration vowed to impose 10%–12.5% tariffs on major trading partners, including the EU and UK, over alleged links to goods produced with forced labor.
US factory orders rose 4.8% in April to $662.7 billion, the strongest gain in 11 months and above expectations. Durable goods jumped 8%, led by a surge in nondefense aircraft and transportation, with gains in fabricated and primary metals, while computers and electronics slipped 0.7%. Nondurable goods orders increased 1.4%.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0730 – Germany May Construction PM
0900 – Eurozone April Retail Sales
1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
1430 – EIAs Weekly Natural Gas Storage Change

Fed speakers: Barkin (1230), Bowman (1400), Daly (1540), Schmid (1700)-

Earnings events

Wednesday (yesterday): Broadcom, Inditex, CrowdStrike, Medtronic, Veeva Systems
Thursday (today): Ciena, Lululemon Athletica

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 fell 0.7% to 7,553.68, the Dow lost 1.2% to 50,687.07, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.9% to 26,853.98, snapping Wall Street’s nine-day winning streak as renewed US-Iran fighting lifted oil and bond yields. Broadcom fell about 13% after hours despite record revenue, as its artificial intelligence chip outlook missed very high expectations. CrowdStrike dropped almost 11% after costs rose with artificial intelligence investment, while PVH fell after cutting its outlook. Costco showed consumer resilience with May comparable sales up 12.5%. Markets now watch whether geopolitics starts to bite earnings expectations.
Europe: The Stoxx 600 fell 0.7% to 621.19, the DAX dropped 1.3%, the FTSE 100 lost 0.4%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 declined 0.9% to 6,053.57 as Middle East risk, higher oil and private-market worries hit sentiment. Akzo Nobel plunged 17.2% after Sherwin-Williams and Nippon Paint dropped a possible takeover bid, while SAP fell 4.3% as software remained under pressure after a recent bounce. Inditex rose after stronger early summer sales reassured investors that Zara’s owner still has pricing and execution power. Markets now look to oil, inflation signals and whether defensive retail can keep carrying its small umbrella.
Asia: Asian equities traded lower on Thursday, with the MSCI Asia Pacific down 1.5%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 1.9%, and Korea’s Kospi down 2.6%, as Wall Street’s pullback and renewed US-Iran tension pushed investors into risk control mode. Hong Kong also stayed under pressure after the Hang Seng fell around 1.6% on Wednesday, while Taiwan’s Taiex had risen 2.0% after Goldman Sachs upgraded Taiwan to overweight. SoftBank lost 5.8% and Fujikura fell 6.7% as Japanese technology and metals names took profits. Asia now watches oil, geopolitics and whether the artificial intelligence trade pauses without breaking.

Volatility

Volatility picked up on Wednesday, but the broader message from the options market remains one of caution rather than stress. The VIX closed at 16.06 (+1.84%), while the 1-day VIX jumped 29.3% to 11.48, reflecting increased demand for short-term protection ahead of today’s US jobless claims report and Friday’s closely watched nonfarm payrolls release. Investors are also monitoring developments in the Middle East after renewed US-Iran tensions lifted oil prices and weighed on risk sentiment. Adding to the cautious tone, Broadcom’s weaker-than-expected outlook has raised fresh questions about whether the AI-driven rally can maintain its recent momentum.
Based on current SPX options pricing, the market is implying a move of approximately ±55.6 points, or ±0.74%, through Friday’s close.
Today’s SPX expiration continues to show a moderate downside skew, with investors paying higher premiums for protective puts than for comparable upside calls. While that suggests continued demand for portfolio insurance, the skew remains well below levels typically associated with market stress, indicating investors are hedging risks rather than preparing for a major correction.

Digital Assets

Digital assets remained under pressure as investors reduced risk exposure amid rising geopolitical tensions, persistent ETF outflows and a stronger focus on macroeconomic risks. Bitcoin traded near $64,000, hovering around its lowest level since late February, while Ethereum slipped below $1,800. Among major altcoins, Solana fell 1.7%, XRP lost 0.8%, and Ethereum continued to underperform Bitcoin as investors favoured relative safety within the crypto market.
Crypto-related equities reflected the same cautious mood. IBIT fell 2.8%, while ETHA declined 5.6%, highlighting the recent weakness in Ethereum-linked assets. More leveraged crypto proxies experienced larger losses, including Coinbase (-6.2%), MicroStrategy (-7.0%), and Circle (-10.6%). The main headwinds remain ongoing Bitcoin ETF outflows, heightened geopolitical uncertainty and concerns that resilient US economic data could keep interest rates higher for longer.
Despite the weakness in prices, options activity suggests investors are not abandoning the asset class. Significant downside protection appeared in MicroStrategy, Coinbase and Circle, while selective upside exposure remained visible through call buying in IBIT and ETHA. The overall picture points to a market that remains constructive on the long-term outlook for digital assets, but is becoming more selective and defensive in the near term.

Commodities

Gold fell to test its 200-day moving average once again on Wednesday as higher oil prices kept inflation concerns elevated following renewed tensions in the Middle East. Those losses were reversed in early trading on Thursday after Israel and Lebanon announced a conditional ceasefire. Overall, gold remains rangebound, with steady central bank demand being offset by ETF outflows and short-term momentum traders positioning for a deeper correction. Key focus remains on support around USD 4,425, developments in the Middle East and oil market, as well as incoming US data following the recent hawkish shift in Fed rate expectations.
Crude oil trades softer but remains near the upper end of Brent's recent USD 90–100 range after the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire announcement. The move follows another day of US and Iranian military action across the region. While flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain severely disrupted, global supply buffers continue to shrink. In the US, a sixth consecutive weekly inventory draw saw stockpiles at Cushing, the delivery hub for WTI futures, fall to 22.4 million barrels, edging closer to levels widely considered near the operational minimum. It’s helping to keep the prompt spread elevated with the July futures contract trading USD 3.25 above August.

Fixed Income

The US Treasury yield curve shifted higher, with the 10-year yield rising 4.6 basis points to 4.491% — its largest single-day increase since 19 May — and the 30-year yield climbing 3.4 basis points to 4.989%. The move was driven by stronger-than-expected ADP payrolls data and rising oil prices stoking inflation concerns, reinforcing expectations the Fed could hike rates at the June 16–17 meeting.
Around six companies were eyeing new bond sales in the US investment-grade primary market on Wednesday, following a busy week that saw 24 deals raise over $36 billion. Bank of New Zealand announced a new benchmark two-tranche yankee offering.

Currencies

FX moves are being driven by renewed demand for the USD as escalating Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz risks prompt a flight to safety, reinforced by hawkish Fed commentary. Dollar Index rose 0.33% to 96.12, its biggest daily gain since May 19 and a third straight advance.
EURUSD saw its largest drop since May 19, falling to $1.1598 (lowest 5pm NY since early April) before stabilising around 1.1611.
USDJPY briefly dipped to 159.83 after headlines that Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire, but is trading just under 160, last near 159.92.
AUDUSD tumbled on the Hormuz-driven USD spike but is now around 0.7137, up slightly from 0.7129.
NZDUSD plunged on hawkish Fed remarks and is trading near 0.5930.
USDMXN rose 0.30% to 17.3411, while USDCAD gained 0.41% to 1.3897, both their largest one-day advances in weeks.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Advanced orders Europe Employment United States United Kingdom European Union (EU) XAUUSD USD EURUSD USDJPY Energy (Sector) Technology S P 500 index Quick Take Weekly Newsletter

Apple’s big AI moment: Can Siri finally sell the next iPhone?

Thu, 04 Jun 2026 06:00:00 Z

Key points:

Apple’s next big test is WWDC on 8 June, where investors expect a major Siri and AI upgrade that could shape the next leg of the iPhone cycle.
The numbers are strong, but the bar is higher now: Apple’s March-quarter revenue rose 17% y/y to $111.2bn, EPS rose 22% y/y, and iPhone revenue hit a March-quarter record.
Valuation already prices in a lot of optimism: Apple trades around $315, with a market cap above $4.6tn and a PE ratio of about 38x, so AI execution matters more than AI promises.

Apple’s big question: is AI finally becoming an iPhone story?

Apple has never needed to be first. It usually lets others race ahead, waits for the technology to become useful, then packages it for the mainstream.

That playbook worked for smartphones, watches, payments and earbuds. But AI is different because the market has already picked several winners. Nvidia owns the infrastructure narrative. Microsoft and Google have moved quickly in productivity and search. Meta is pushing AI across social, ads and devices.

Apple, meanwhile, has been treated as the elegant giant that is still trying to find its AI voice.

That is why WWDC matters. It is not just a developer event. It is Apple’s chance to show that AI can become part of everyday device behaviour — not another app, not another chatbot, but a reason to keep buying into the Apple ecosystem.

The curiosity point for investors is simple: can Siri finally become useful enough to matter for Apple’s earnings story?

What investors expect at WWDC

Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference begins on 8 June, and the main focus is expected to be a major Siri overhaul. Reports suggest the new Siri could become more conversational, more capable of handling complex tasks, and more deeply integrated across Apple’s operating systems. AI features are also expected across writing tools, search, photos and system-level functions.

For investors, this is not just a software event. It is potentially a test of whether Apple can turn AI into a consumer upgrade cycle.

The market wants to see three things:

A smarter Siri that feels materially better, not just cosmetically improved.
On-device AI that strengthens Apple’s privacy and ecosystem advantage.
A reason to upgrade to newer iPhones, Macs and iPads.

Apple does not need to win the AI data-centre race. It needs to win the AI distribution race.

The market will be watching whether Siri can move from “answering questions” to taking actions — across messages, calendar, email, photos, maps, apps and search. That would make AI less of a separate product and more of a new layer of the operating system.

Why this matters for Apple

Apple is not entering WWDC from a position of weakness — and that is exactly why expectations are demanding.

In its fiscal second quarter ended 28 March 2026, Apple revenue rose 17% y/y to $111.2bn, while diluted EPS rose 22% y/y to $2.01. The company also reported March-quarter records for total revenue, iPhone revenue and EPS, with Services revenue reaching an all-time high.
But the broader smartphone backdrop remains difficult. The market is still dealing with demand softness and supply-chain constraints, while reports suggest Apple shipments could be broadly flat in 2026 before rising 5% in 2027.
That puts more pressure on AI to become a real upgrade driver. A better Siri, stronger on-device AI and features that work best on newer chips could help Apple defend premium pricing and support the next iPhone replacement cycle.
The stock has already priced in a lot of this hope. Apple has recently traded around $310–315, with a market cap near $4.6tn and a trailing PE ratio around 37–38x. Barron’s also noted that the stock rose 17% in May, helped by earnings strength and AI optimism.

So WWDC is not about whether Apple can surprise from a low base. It is about whether Apple can show enough AI progress to justify a premium valuation.

A simple positioning framework for investors

Bull case: Apple proves it can be a consumer AI platform

Siri feels genuinely useful, deeply integrated, privacy-led and upgrade-worthy.
Apple starts to look less like an AI laggard and more like a company that can bring AI to the mainstream.
The stock could extend higher as the AI narrative moves from promise to product.
For investors already exposed, this would support staying with core exposure.
Fresh exposure would be more compelling if the event confirms that AI can support the next iPhone upgrade cycle, rather than just create keynote excitement.

Base case: Apple shows progress, but the rollout is still gradual

AI features look solid, but not game-changing yet.
This may defend the long-term ecosystem story, but may not be enough for a major re-rating.
The stock could chop or fade after the event, especially after its recent run.
A balanced approach would be to avoid chasing into the keynote and wait for evidence in future earnings calls.
The key proof point would be whether AI starts to show up in upgrade momentum, Services engagement and developer adoption.

Bear case: Apple’s AI still feels behind

Features feel incremental, delayed, or less compelling than what users already get from Google, OpenAI or other AI assistants.
The “AI laggard” narrative could return.
A premium valuation would become harder to defend.
Investors may prefer to wait for a better entry point or reassess exposure if the stock rallies into the event without enough product confirmation.

The bigger point: WWDC may shape the near-term narrative, but this is not only a one-day trade. The real proof will come later through iPhone demand, device upgrades, Services engagement and developer adoption.

Risks to the view

There are three main risks.

First, WWDC could disappoint if the Siri upgrade feels incremental. Apple has had AI expectations before, and investors may not give it unlimited patience.

Second, China remains a key swing factor. Premium demand has been resilient, but competition from Huawei and other local brands remains intense.

Third, valuation risk is real. At around 37–38x earnings, Apple can still perform if earnings momentum improves, but the margin for disappointment is thinner.

Bottom line

Apple’s WWDC is shaping up as a test of whether AI can become the next layer of the Apple ecosystem.

The company already has the installed base, brand loyalty, Services engine and balance sheet. What investors need now is proof that Apple can make AI mainstream in a way that actually changes user behaviour.

The bull case is that Siri becomes the gateway to a new iPhone upgrade cycle.

The risk is that WWDC becomes another polished Apple event that leaves investors asking: nice, but where is the urgency?

For a stock already trading at a premium, Apple does not just need to show AI. It needs to show why AI makes the next iPhone cycle harder to ignore.

Charu Chanana

Chief Investment Strategist

Saxo

Topics: Equities Artificial Intelligence Theme - Artificial intelligence Apple Apple Inc.

Cyber, Chips and Space: Saxo UK Client Trends Report May

Wed, 03 Jun 2026 11:08:00 Z

Saxo UK market and client trends report May

Market highlights

Global equity markets rallied strongly again in May, extending April’s rally after the steep selloff in March as the AI-driven earnings momentum dragged stocks higher. Whilst investors continued to register concerns about the Middle East conflict, slowing growth, rising inflation and policy tightening, AI investment continued to underpin a bullish optimism.

Wall Street closed out the month at record highs after a dizzying rally for tech, particularly chipmakers and memory stocks. The Nasdaq rose more than 8% in May, while the S&P 500 rallied around 5% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed almost 3%. Earnings season has been one of the strongest in years with 85% of S&P 500 companies beating expectations. Per FactSet, companies are on aggregate surpassing profit forecasts by +16.7% against +7.3% average of the last 5 years.

Global stock markets were also buoyant with the MSCI AC World index rising 6% in sterling terms. Emerging markets posted strong gains with South Korea and Taiwan leading the way higher thanks to a handful of dominant tech names linked to the AI trade - SK Hynix, Samsung and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company.

In terms of sectors tech was the biggest gainer with the MSCI AC World Information Technology index gaining over 18%. Commodities registered their first monthly decline in a year as gold declined for a third month in a row.

Client Trends

Main highlights: Saxo UK clients were net buyers of US tech too – Nvidia came as the most actively traded stock last month, with a 59% buy ratio. Micron was a close second and had 58% net buys.

Diversification remains a key theme and driver of trading activity as we saw significant positive buy ratios for a range of equity ETFs, particularly in the tech space. We registered strong buying in thematic ETFs offering exposure to semiconductors, and broader equity exposure via the likes of the MSCI World and S&P 500 tracker funds.

ETFs are more commonly featured in long-term, buy-and-hold type investor portfolios and therefore tend to have a stronger % buy rating than many single stocks, which may traded in and out more easily. Nevertheless, the strong buy ratings (bottom table) for a range of ETFs indicates solid appetite among clients to build holdings over the long term as opposed to selling down holdings.
Our list of the top ten performing ISA-eligible ETFs last month showed semiconductors, cyber security, space tech and quantum computing were big market themes.

UK stocks were in the doldrums a bit – the FTSE 100 lagged Wall Street significantly and this was reflected with just Rolls-Royce and BP entering our list of most traded stocks last month.

But Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust topped the list of stocks with the most positive buy ratio thanks to excitement around the coming IPO for SpaceX, which represents about 20% of the SMT net asset value.

Top 40 most traded stocks and ETFs in April with % of trades that were buys

Top Stocks & ETFs (Most Traded)	Buy%
NVIDIA Corp.	59%
Micron Technology Inc.	58%
Microsoft Corp.	52%
Intel Corp.	47%
Palantir Technologies Inc.	62%
Advanced Micro Devices Inc.	51%
Alphabet Inc. Class A	55%
Meta Platforms Inc.	58%
Tesla Inc.	48%
Amazon.com Inc.	50%
VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF	80%
IonQ Inc.	62%
Apple Inc.	46%
ServiceNow Inc.	58%
IREN Ltd.	62%
Broadcom Inc.	64%
SanDisk Corp	65%
Vanguard S&P 500 Dist UCITS ETF	69%
Vanguard S&P 500 Acc UCITS ETF	83%
AST SpaceMobile Inc.	58%
Rigetti Computing, Inc.	60%
iShares Core MSCI World UCITS ETF	83%
Rocket Lab Corporation	59%
Oracle Corp.	46%
Rolls-Royce Holdings PLC	55%
Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS Acc ETF	91%
D-Wave Quantum Inc.	61%
BP Plc	49%
Redwire Corp.	77%
CoreWeave Inc.	62%
iShares Physical Gold ETC	69%
Netflix Inc.	57%
Strategy Inc.	59%
Vanguard FTSE 100 UCITS ETF	78%
Coinbase Global Inc	53%
Marvell Technology Inc.	57%
Nebius Group NV	47%
TSMC - ADR	65%
Uber Technologies Inc.	54%
SoFi Technologies Inc	57%

Most Popular – stocks and ETFs with the strongest % buy ratio in January (minimum # of trades required)

Top Stocks & ETFs (Most Popular)	Buy%
Invesco EQQQ NASDAQ-100 UCITS ETF	97%
VanEck Space Innovators UCITS ETF	93%
Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS Acc ETF	91%
Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS Dist ETF	91%
iShares MSCI Global Semiconductors UCITS ETF	86%
iShares S&P 500 Info Technology Sector UCITS ETF	84%
iShares Core MSCI World UCITS ETF	83%
Vanguard S&P 500 Acc UCITS ETF	83%
Scottish Mortgage & Trust Plc.	81%
VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF	80%
SK hynix Inc	80%
Shopify Inc.	80%

Most Popular – stocks only

Most Popular - just stocks	Buy%
Scottish Mortgage & Trust Plc.	81%
SK hynix Inc	80%
Shopify Inc.	80%
MercadoLibre Inc.	77%
Redwire Corp.	77%
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd - ADR	75%
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. B	72%
Cerebras Systems Inc	70%
Salesforce Inc.	69%
Arista Networks Inc.	69%

Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities United Kingdom Highlighted articles UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer FR US Actualites et Analyses Trump Version 2 - Investors Volatility investor TagFeed En hurtig tanke

Options Brief - Chip surge, new S&P record - 3 June 2026

Wed, 03 Jun 2026 08:54:00 Z

The S&P 500 just closed above 7,600 for the first time, driven by a 22% surge in Marvell Technology and a 30% jump in HPE, both on AI news. But here’s the part the headline didn’t tell you: institutions were buying more put protection than calls on the same day. Today’s Options Brief covers what that put/call ratio divergence means, why the vol term structure is flagging event risk ahead, and two educational strategy structures worth understanding ...

Options Brief – Chip surge, new S&P record – 3 June 2026

The S&P 500 closed above 7,600 for the first time, but the options market was building protection under the surface.

Semiconductors and AI infrastructure stocks drove the June 2 session, with Marvell Technology jumping 22% after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang called it a potential next trillion-dollar company, HPE rallying 30% on an AI-fuelled guidance upgrade, and Broadcom rising 5% ahead of quarterly results due after today’s close. The S&P 500 closed above 7,600 for the first time on record; Alphabet fell roughly 4% on news of an $80 billion stock sale to fund AI spending, a contrast that captures the dispersion running through the AI trade and frames what to watch when Broadcom reports tonight.

Market snapshot

S&P 500: 7,609.78 (+0.13%), first close above 7,600
Nasdaq 100: 30,660.60 (+0.48%)
Russell 2000: 2,931.96 (+0.90%), the strongest major index on the session
WTI crude oil futures: 95.17 (+1.50%), elevated on persistent Israel–Lebanon tensions
Market regime: Low vol bull – VIX 15.77, 20-day realised vol 9.5% (decreasing), S&P 500 +7.18% above its 50-day moving average

Options flow sentiment

Based on end-of-day 2 June 2026 – yesterday’s positioning, not today’s price action.

Single-name flow split along AI-chip lines: NVDA attracted the session’s largest confirmed upside call interest while TSLA and MU leaned clearly defensive, with MSFT showing a call-supply tone that kept the broad tech bullish read muted. Index and ETF flow told a cleaner hedging story, with put structures pointing to protection into the June macro calendar, partly offset by upside call demand in tech-focused ETF options.

Options angle

The VIX closed at 15.77 on June 2, continuing its gradual drift lower; VIX9D fell further to 13.19, creating a noticeable gap between very near-term and 30-day implied vol that points to near-term calm with medium-term event risk priced further out the curve. The CBOE S&P 500 put/call ratio (PCSX), which measures the volume of protective put trading relative to bullish call activity, rose 10.48% on the day to 1.16, confirming that institutional hedging was building alongside the record close rather than retreating from it.

Strategy insight – Post-earnings volatility fade. When a large technology company reports earnings, implied volatility in that stock tends to inflate in the run-up and then collapse sharply after the announcement, regardless of whether the result beats or misses. This pattern, known as the volatility crush, is what a short iron butterfly is designed to exploit: the position is short an at-the-money call and an at-the-money put, with bought wings further out on each side to define the maximum loss. The structure earns from implied vol falling back toward normal levels after the event, not from correctly predicting the direction of the earnings reaction. The maximum loss is the distance between the body and wing strikes, minus the net premium collected, and it occurs if the stock makes a large enough move to carry through either wing.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.

Strategy insight – Calendar spread into an event window. When near-term implied volatility is running significantly below that of options expiring around a known macro event, the difference in pricing across the curve can support a calendar spread. The trade is short a near-dated at-the-money option and long the same-strike option in the expiry closest to the event window. The front leg benefits from faster time decay in a low near-term vol environment, while the back leg holds value linked to event uncertainty further out. This is not a directional trade: it earns from the difference in how each leg’s value erodes over time, and it works best when the underlying stays near the strike during the life of the front-month option. The main risk is a sharp move in the underlying before the near-dated leg expires, which pushes the position off-strike and can eliminate the spread’s value regardless of the vol differential.

Conclusion

The market is printing records on the back of an AI theme that keeps finding new names to move, but the options market is flagging a two-speed dynamic: spot grinds higher while institutional hedging builds below the surface. Broadcom’s earnings after today’s close will test whether semiconductor leadership can hold into the June macro window, or whether the cautious positioning already being built starts to pay off. The vol term structure is telling traders that the near term looks clear and the medium term does not. That message is worth heeding heading into today’s session.

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Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Bull vs Bear: Is Marvell Technology the next $1tn company?

Wed, 03 Jun 2026 08:38:00 Z

Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.

Key Points

Marvell Technology shares jumped 32% after Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang said it will be the “next trillion-dollar company".
Nvidia recently invested $2 billion in the chip maker
Analysts have been turning more bullish even as shares have soared this year

Marvell is set to be the “next trillion-dollar company,” says Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang. Shares soared 32% on the remarks, leaving the company with a market cap of a little over $254bn by the close on Tuesday (2 June). So, what is the chance that it can add another 300% in market cap?

What does Marvell do?

Marvell sits at the nexus of the AI data centre buildout. Its products encompass custom AI chips (XPUs), optics, networking, storage, and security. But the key is the Data Center Interconnect (DCI) Modules, which transmit data over regional fibre networks.

Chairman and CEO Matt Murphy referenced these in the recent earnings call.

“The increase in our revenue outlook continues to be driven by our data centre business, which we now expect to grow approximately 50% this fiscal year. Notably, we expect our interconnect business to grow more than 70% [YoY], well above our prior expectation of 50% growth.”

Huang thinks these networking and connectivity chips are essential to data centres where computing tasks are spread across an array of thousands of connected chips where data needs to be shared.

“When you take a computing problem, and you disaggregate it into a lot of parts, and you distribute it across the entire data centre, what’s necessary is connectivity,” Huang said. “That’s the reason why Matt’s doing so well. That’s the reason why Marvel is so essential.”

It’s worth pointing out that Nvidia is not a disinterested party – it recently disclosed a $2bn investment in Marvell.

Earnings outlook & analysts

Last week Marvell reported record revenue of $2.418 billion for its fiscal 27 first quarter, up 28% year over year and beating expectations It guided for $2.7bn in revenue for Q2, also ahead of expectations. The company also raised its 2028 revenue outlook by $1.5bn, with management now expecting 45% YoY growth to $16.5bn.

Analysts have been indicating that the stock is underestimated by the market, despite its thumping gains that have seen it rally +225 YTD in 2026. The worry about competition seems to be have been overdone and the implication from Huang’s remarks seem to bear this out.

The consensus buy rating now looks a little out of step with the average price target of $225 following Tuesday’s rapid gains. We await to see whether Wall St catches up with PT upgrades or waits for this one to fade.

BofA recently listed a few upside and downside risks to the stock (no mention of a plug from Huang). Downside risks included any loss of visibility in its custom Application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) projects, plus more generic issues around competition in AI compute and any cyclical slowdown in the enterprise network and storage markets. Better visibility in ASIC projects and market share gains in data centre networking switching are among the upside catalysts.

In its favour is potential inclusion in the S&P 500, which has been talked about by analysts. The next review is 19 June and Marvell’s market cap would place it in the top 10% of constituents should it be included.

Source: Saxo

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities United Kingdom Highlighted articles UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer FR US Actualites et Analyses Trump Version 2 - Investors Volatility investor TagFeed En hurtig tanke

London Quick Take - 3 June - European shares slide as oil grinds up, tech sees NY & Tokyo set new records, Marvell surges 32% on Nvidia's Huang comment

Wed, 03 Jun 2026 06:42:00 Z

Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.

European stock market retreated on Wednesday morning as oil ticked higher for a third day in a row after the US and Iran exchanged fire as tensions continue to mount. Iranian drones hit Kuwait’s airport and shut it, though this didn’t seem to affect sentiment in Asia overnight as Tokyo followed New York's cue by climbing to a new all-time high, led by local tech stocks as Japan’s government approved additional stimulus.

There’s not a great urgency to get a deal done, it seems, even if we still assume the extreme left tail risk has been cut off. But the ceasefire is fraying so no surprise to see oil prices continue to press higher without as yet any sign a resumption of full hostilities. Brent edged up around 2% to $98 to hit its highest in a week.

With oil up, risk sentiment is a bit nervy this morning as the FTSE 100 dipped around 0.4% having finished up 0.4% on Tuesday to snap a three-day losing streak as European equity markets rallied on Tuesday. The move higher came despite Eurozone inflation rising to 3.2% from the impact on energy prices from the Iran war. The European Central Bank seems assured to hike rates next week.

Tariffs are rearing their head again, perhaps signalling Trump’s boredom with Iran. The Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) proposed new tariffs of at least 10% on imports from 60 trading partners, including Canada, Mexico, the EU, Taiwan and the UK, with 12.5% for several other major economies.

The S&P 500 finished above 7,600 for the first time to set a fresh record close, while the Dow Jones and Nasdaq also eked out new all-time highs. The S&P 500 has now posted its best winning streak in a year and with a nine-day win streak behind it is closing in on its joint best run since 1995, when it posted ten straight gains. The three main indices have now closed at record highs for five straight sessions – the first time we’ve seen this since 2017. Gains came despite software lagging considerably and Mag7 stocks down 1% as Alphabet weighed heavily with its $80bn capital raise. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped 5.9%, extending a thumping gain for semis that we detailed in our top performing ETFs list for May.

Leading this group, Marvell shares soared after Nvidia boss Jensen Huang said it would be the next $1tn company. Its market cap was about $195bn before the comments sent shares up 32%...that’s a third in market cap on one remark from the CEO of another company. Marvell designs chips for data centres, and Huang thinks these networking and connectivity chips are essential to data centres where computing tasks are spread across an array of thousands of connected chips where data needs to be shared.

Elsewhere, GameStop shares after-hours after the company announced a $2bn share buyback that equivalent to a fifth of its market cap! Apart from that it delivered some very tidy fiscal first quarter results with revenues up, margins good and some unrealised gains from options exposure to eBay following its attempt to buy the online marketplace. Nuke stocks gains as US officials approved plans to restart the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant. Among the leaders in this space Uranium Energy, Energy Fuels, Oklo, NexGen Energy and NuScale all rose around double-digit percentages. Cybersecurity firm Palo Alto Networks jumped more than 10% after reporting fiscal third-quarter results that beat revenue and earnings expectations.

One notable update on the Space Economy amid all this IPO chatter – Seraphim Space Investment Trust out with a note today reporting another “record” period, with management reporting a portfolio valuation increase of 30.7% to £433.3m, largely due to the continued strong performance of ICEYE, funding rounds at Xona Space Systems and Tomorrow.io, and the indicative pricing for the upcoming HawkEye 360 IPO. Shares of the trust however pulled back, now –10% over the last month from their peak. We had a look at this one here.

Low-fire, low-hire: US jobs data was solid, nudging up market expectations for a hike this year. Jolts job openings hit their highest level in two years. US job quits fell to 2.98 million in April 2026, the lowest since mid-2020. That saw the yield curve flatten as 2yr Treasury yields ticked up as the 10yr yield edged down. Today we are looking to the ISM services index, the ADP’s report (both for May), and factory orders for April.

Finally, gold is now the world’s top reserve asset after years of buying by global central banks, a report from the European Central Bank said, citing figures showing bullion comprised 27% of reserves globally at the end of last year, up from 20% a year before. That’s not helped it this week with spot gold testing the 23.6% Fib level around $4,452 after Friday’s failed topside breakout.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities United Kingdom Highlighted articles UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer FR US Actualites et Analyses Trump Version 2 - Investors Volatility investor TagFeed En hurtig tanke

Market Quick Take - 3 June 2026

Wed, 03 Jun 2026 06:13:00 Z

Market Quick Take – 3 June 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

Equities: US, European and Asian stocks rose as AI enthusiasm stayed the main driver across semiconductors, software and China tech.
Volatility: VIX subdued, macro data ahead, payrolls focus
Digital Assets: Bitcoin stabilises, ETF outflows persist, IBIT and ETHA weak
Fixed Income: US Treasuries trade broadly steady
Currencies: USD remains supported with focus on USDJPY as 160 is tested once agains
Commodities: Crude oil is trading higher for a third consecutive session, copper near record
Macro events: US April Factory Orders, May ISM Services & Fed Beige Book

Macro headlines

Iranian media questioned the talks’ progress, despite Trump saying they continue, as Washington now seeks written Iranian commitments on nuclear concessions under a preliminary conflict-ending framework that had previously rested on verbal assurances. The US and Israel have very different ideas about what an end to the war should look like, with Tehran insisting that Lebanon must be part of any peace agreement, and this divide is jeopardizing the fragile negotiations between Washington and Tehran.
US JOLTS beat: US job openings rose to 7.618 million in April, well above the 7.0 million consensus and up from 6.887 million in March, reinforcing a hawkish read on the Fed's rate path.
US job quits fell to 2.98 million in April 2026, the lowest since mid-2020, with the quits rate down to 1.9%, signaling fewer workers voluntarily leaving jobs.
Eurozone inflation rose to 3.2% y/y in May 2026 from 3.0%, the highest since September 2023 and above the ECB’s 2% target. Energy prices surged 10.9% on Middle East–related supply issues, services and goods inflation picked up, food inflation eased, and core inflation climbed to 2.5%, with most major members seeing higher rates except Germany. The acceleration cements the case for a 25 basis-point interest rate increase from the ECB at its 11 June meeting.
The US has proposed new tariffs of at least 10% on imports from 60 trading partners following an investigation into goods allegedly produced with forced labor. The proposed rate would be 10% for imports from Canada, Mexico, the EU, Taiwan and the UK, and 12.5% for several other major economies. The measures remain subject to a public consultation and review process, meaning the final tariffs may be revised before implementation.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1215 – US May ADP Employment Change
1345 – US May PMIs (final)
1400 – US April Factory Orders
1400 – US May ISM Services
1430 – EIAs Weekly Crude and Fuel Inventory Report
1800 – Fed Beige Book

Earnings events

Monday: Hewlett Packard Enterprise
Tuesday (yesterday): Palo Alto Networks, Dollar General, Ulta Beauty
Wednesday (today): Broadcom, Inditex, CrowdStrike, Medtronic, Veeva Systems
Thursday: Ciena, Lululemon Athletica

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.1% to a fresh record, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.5% and the Dow added 0.4%, as AI enthusiasm again did most of the heavy lifting. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped 5.9%, led by Marvell Technology, which surged almost 33.0% after Nvidia’s Jensen Huang suggested it could become the next one trillion-dollar company. Hewlett Packard Enterprise rose 19.5% after strong results and higher guidance, while Alphabet drew attention around AI infrastructure plans. After the close, Palo Alto Networks fell about 3.0% despite raising its profit outlook, while GitLab dropped 5.1% even after beating earnings expectations and guiding above consensus.
Europe: European equities rebounded, with the Stoxx Europe 600 rising 0.7% to 625.34 and the Euro Stoxx 50 climbing 1.2% to 6,107.85, as technology stocks led the recovery. STMicroelectronics surged 15.1% after nearly doubling its 2026 data-centre revenue forecast to 1 billion dollars, while ASML gained 4.9% and Infineon rose 9.5% to a record high as investors kept buying the AI supply chain. Markets now watch whether this AI-led breadth can survive the next macro data check.
Asia: Asian equities advanced, led by Hong Kong, where the Hang Seng Index jumped 2.5% to 26,038.32 and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index gained 3.0%. Tencent surged 10.5% after reports it is moving closer to launching an AI agent inside WeChat, while Meituan rallied on narrower-than-expected losses. Macau casino stocks extended gains after stronger gaming revenue, with MGM China up 7.2% and Wynn Macau up 5.8%, while Lenovo hit a record after Macquarie lifted its price target by more than 70%. The CSI 300 rose 1.5%, and broader regional sentiment stayed supported by lower crude prices and AI optimism.

Volatility

Volatility remains remarkably subdued despite a busy macro calendar and several geopolitical risks simmering beneath the surface. The VIX closed at 15.77 on Tuesday, while shorter-term measures stayed even lower, with VIX1D at 8.88 and VIX9D at 13.19, indicating that investors are not currently pricing in significant near-term market stress. That calm could be tested today by the ADP employment report, ISM Services data, crude oil inventories and the Fed’s Beige Book, while Friday’s US jobs report remains the week’s most important scheduled catalyst.
SPX options imply an expected move of roughly ±63 points (0.83%) into Friday’s close, while today’s options pricing suggests a move of around ±29 points (0.38%). The daily 0DTE sentiment indicator remains mildly bullish, with calls around the 7,610 strike trading at a premium to comparable puts. While this points to somewhat stronger demand for upside exposure, it should be viewed as a short-term positioning signal rather than a directional forecast.
Options flow continues to suggest investors are preparing for a potentially more volatile second half of June. Large SPX positions were concentrated around the period following next week’s CPI release and the 16–17 June FOMC meeting, while ETF flows showed continued demand for downside protection in emerging markets. At the same time, investors continued to add upside exposure in QQQ, Nvidia and semiconductor-related names, reinforcing the view that artificial intelligence remains the market’s dominant leadership theme.

Digital Assets

Digital assets remain under pressure after a difficult start to June. Bitcoin traded near $66,980, while Ethereum hovered around $1,867, both stabilising after sharp declines earlier this week. Sentiment has been weighed down by continued ETF outflows, uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations and investor reaction to Strategy’s first Bitcoin sale since 2022, even though the transaction represented only a tiny fraction of the company’s holdings.
Crypto-linked equities continue to reflect the cautious mood. IBIT fell 6.0%, ETHA declined 4.8%, while Coinbase (-4.7%), MicroStrategy (-9.2%) and MARA (-3.8%) all underperformed the broader equity market. ETF flows remain the key signal for long-term investors. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced one of their largest sustained outflow streaks on record, while Ethereum ETFs have also seen fresh withdrawals, with ETHA among the largest contributors.
Options activity paints a more nuanced picture. Traders continued to position for larger future price swings rather than expressing strong directional views. Significant activity in IREN, COIN and IBIT included both call and put exposure, while MSTR attracted notable put buying. In other words, the options market is signalling uncertainty rather than conviction. Among the major altcoins, XRP traded near $1.23, while Solana held around $74.50. Despite recent weakness, neither Bitcoin nor Ethereum has yet experienced the type of forced liquidation activity typically associated with deeper crypto bear markets.

Fixed Income

US Treasuries were broadly steady, with the 10-year yield little changed at 4.46% and the 30-year yield at 4.97%. The 30-year has now fallen in eight of the past nine sessions and sits at its lowest since 8 May, having pulled back from a 52-week high of 5.18% hit on 19 May. The short-term interest rate market is currently pricing a 30% risk of a rate hike before yearend, with the risk of a renewed Fed hiking cycle, keeping the 2-year at 4.06%.
German 10-year Bund yields trades lower for a second day, holding above key support at 2.9%, with the latest move signalling the market has now fully priced in a widely anticipated rate hike from the ECB at next week's meeting following the May CPI print of 3.2%.

Commodities

Crude oil is trading higher for a third consecutive session, with Brent pushing above USD 97 as market pessimism once again grows over the prospects of a US-Iran deal that could pave the way for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The latest escalation saw US forces intercept Iranian missiles and drones before striking an Iranian command center in response. For now, the risk premium continues to be partly offset by President Trump's repeated insistence that an interim agreement remains within reach.
Attention now turns to the EIA's weekly inventory report after the API reported a 6.8 million barrel decline in US crude stocks, which, if confirmed, would mark a sixth consecutive weekly drawdown. Traders will also be watching inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, where stockpiles have fallen to around 23 million barrels, not far above the roughly 20 million barrel level widely considered the operational minimum.
Gold trades lower as the market continues to take its cues from oil, with the latest rise in crude prices weighing on bullion through its inflationary impact. Higher energy costs have underpinned bond yields and the dollar while reducing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. For now, gold remains trapped in a narrowing range around USD 4,500, with support provided by the 200-day moving average at USD 4,417 and resistance emerging around USD 4,620.
Copper futures in New York trades near last month's record high of USD 6.7160 per pound and is up 17% year-to-date as demand continues to outpace supply, with AI infrastructure investment providing an increasingly important source of consumption growth. In addition, the High-Grade contract is once again outperforming London prices amid renewed speculation over potential US import tariffs. The US Commerce Department faces a 30 June deadline to deliver its latest recommendation on copper tariffs, helping maintain bullish sentiment across the market.

Currencies

USD is broadly supported, with the main focus on USDJPY, which briefly traded 160 during the Asia session, near prior Japanese intervention territory. The move is underpinned by strong US labor-market data (job openings) and safe-haven/oil dynamics linked to the US–Iran conflict, which has pushed crude prices higher in the latest session.
AUDUSD was flat to slightly higher and remains up about 0.8% since the US–Iran conflict began, though Australia’s Q1 GDP is a key near-term risk that could hit AUD if it disappoints.
EURUSD is struggling for upside as higher oil prices and the broader bid for the dollar outweigh any support from Eurozone inflation data and an expected rate hike next week.
The Chinese yuan trades at its strongest level since September 2022 against a trade-weighted basket, with the offshore USD/CNH reaching at 6.758, the lowest since February 2023.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

Saxo Bank

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Options Brief - Tech records, oil whipsaw - 2 June 2026

Tue, 02 Jun 2026 11:30:00 Z

The S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high on Monday. The VIX, the market’s fear gauge, also rose, by nearly 5 percent on the same day. That combination is rare, and it points to something the headline number alone isn’t showing. In today’s Options Brief, we cover Nvidia’s ...

Options Brief - Tech records, oil whipsaw - 2 June 2026

Nvidia’s PC chip launch lifted tech to fresh records while Iran’s Strait of Hormuz threat whipsawed oil, and options markets quietly added portfolio protection beneath the surface.

The first session of June delivered an all-time closing high for the S&P 500, but nine of eleven sectors declined on the day, leaving a narrow tech-led tape masking meaningful underlying divergence. VIX closed 4.77% higher alongside equities, a combination that signals demand for optionality rather than clean risk-on sentiment. The week’s macro calendar builds toward May nonfarm payrolls on Friday, with the June CPI release on 10 June and the FOMC meeting on 16 and 17 June providing the next structural anchors.

Headline driver

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang unveiled the N1X processor at Computex 2026 in Taipei, an Arm-based chip co-developed with Microsoft and MediaTek and set to ship in Windows laptops this autumn, pushing large-cap tech to fresh records. Simultaneously, Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, sending crude oil surging 6 to 8 percent intraday before a Trump-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah reversed the move, with WTI settling below its prior close.

Market snapshot

S&P 500: 7,599.96 (+0.26%), a new all-time closing high, though nine of eleven sectors declined as tech carried the index almost single-handedly.
Nasdaq 100: 30,513.86 (+0.60%), NVDA-led.
iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM): The Russell 2000 closed at 2,905.76 (–0.47%), with small caps finding no bid in the tech-heavy session.
WTI crude: $91.19 (–1.05%), reversing a dramatic intraday surge that peaked near $98 on Strait of Hormuz supply fears before ceasefire news erased the move.
US 10-year Treasury yield: 4.434%, down 4.3 basis points, absorbing the geopolitical noise with relative calm.
Market regime: Low vol bull – VIX 16.1, 20-day realised vol 9.8% (stable), S&P 500 +7.37% above its 50-day moving average.

Options flow sentiment

Based on end-of-day 1 June 2026 – yesterday’s positioning, not today’s price action.

Single-name flow leaned clearly bullish, with call accumulation concentrated in large-cap tech and e-commerce names, a positioning bias that left dealers mechanically buying underlying to hedge their short-call exposure.

Index and ETF confirmed opening flow diverged sharply toward long-dated put structures and broad downside ETF protection, pointing to meaningful portfolio hedging being added quietly beneath the record-setting tape.

Options angle

VIX closed at 16.05, rising 4.77% on the day even as the S&P 500 edged to a new record, a divergence that signals underlying demand for optionality rather than a clean risk-on session. The VVIX (the volatility of the VIX itself, measuring how much the fear gauge is expected to move) climbed 6.44%, and the CBOE S&P 500 put/call ratio (PCSX, which measures protective put activity relative to bullish call positioning) jumped 19% to 1.05, corroborating the defensive index flow from yesterday.

The vol term structure is worth noting. The 9-day VIX (VIX9D) sits at 13.76, well below the 30-day spot at 16.05, with front-month VIX futures at 18.00 and second-month at 20.35. That steep upward slope means the market is pricing significantly more uncertainty at the 30-day-and-beyond horizon than at the immediate week, consistent with the CPI release on 10 June and the FOMC meeting on 16 and 17 June sitting just ahead on the calendar.

Strategy insight – How calendar spreads exploit a term structure gap. When near-dated implied vol is measurably lower than longer-dated implied vol, and when an identifiable macro catalyst sits further along the expiry curve, the conditions are theoretically suited to a calendar spread. The structure works by selling a short-dated at-the-money option while buying the same strike at a longer expiry. The short leg benefits from faster time decay in the relatively calm near-term period, while the long leg retains exposure to any vol expansion the macro event may bring. Today’s setup, with near-dated vol well below the 30-day implied and CPI and FOMC sitting ahead on the curve, illustrates the kind of term structure gap this structure is designed for. The maximum loss is the net premium paid for the back-month leg, capped at the initial cost of putting the spread on.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.

Strategy insight – The IV-versus-realised gap and what it means for protective structures. When implied volatility runs materially above realised volatility, the market is pricing in more forward movement than it has recently delivered. Here, the 30-day implied vol at 16.05 is running against a 20-day realised vol of 9.8%, a gap of roughly 65%. For a trader thinking about portfolio protection, that gap matters. It means the cost of buying downside optionality is elevated relative to what actual market movement has justified. A put spread on a broad index, rather than an outright put, is one way to reduce that cost by selling a further-out-of-the-money put against the long leg, capping the maximum gain on the hedge in exchange for a lower net premium. The maximum loss on such a structure is the net premium paid if markets continue higher and both legs expire unexercised.

Conclusion

Yesterday’s session printed a record but delivered a more ambiguous signal underneath, with narrow breadth, a VIX rising alongside equities, a put/call ratio above 1.0, and significant long-dated hedging flow at the index level. The vol term structure tells traders the market expects a quiet week before macro events take over from 10 June onward. The more actionable observation is that relatively cheap near-dated implied vol offers a cost-efficient window to position either side of those catalysts before the market prices them in more fully.

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Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

The AI boom is becoming a capital-cycle story

Tue, 02 Jun 2026 09:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Artificial intelligence is shifting from product excitement to capital discipline.
A key question for investors is which companies can fund the AI buildout while still earning attractive returns.
Companies with pricing power, scarce assets and strong balance sheets may be better placed to earn attractive returns from the AI buildout.

Artificial intelligence started as a product story. Better chatbots. Better coding tools. Better image generators. A neat party trick, until the party started asking for data centres, chips, electricity and financing.

That is the shift investors now need to understand. The artificial intelligence (AI) race is moving from “what can the product do?” to “who can pay for the factory, and who earns attractive returns from it?”

Bloomberg reported on 1 June 2026 that Alphabet is raising 80 billion USD in equity, including an investment from Berkshire Hathaway, to help fund its artificial intelligence spending plans. Broadcom reports earnings on 3 June 2026, giving investors a fresh read on AI chip and networking demand. Arm is also pushing deeper into data-centre chips, with Bloomberg reporting that the company is targeting a much larger role in the AI hardware market.

The age of cheap demos is ending

An IPO filing matters because it turns a private story into a public test. Anthropic, the company behind Claude, has been one of the most closely watched AI firms. Public investors will eventually want more than impressive user growth and clever model updates.

They will ask simple questions. How much revenue repeats? How expensive is each customer to serve? How much cash does the company burn? How concentrated are its customers? How long are its compute contracts? Compute simply means the processing power needed to train and run AI models.

This is where AI starts to resemble older capital cycles. In shipping, mining or telecoms, exciting demand can lead to massive investment. Massive investment can then lead to overcapacity, weaker pricing and lower returns. AI is not a shipyard, thankfully for everyone’s inbox. But the economic pattern still matters.

If demand keeps rising faster than supply, the owners of scarce capacity can earn attractive returns. If supply catches up too quickly, the buyer gets cheaper AI and the builder gets a headache.

Alphabet shows the other side of the story. The company owns Google Search, YouTube, Google Cloud and Gemini. It has huge cash flows, global distribution and deep technical talent. Yet even Alphabet is raising equity to fund the buildout. That tells investors one thing clearly: AI infrastructure is not a side project. It is a balance-sheet event.

For shareholders, the key issue is not whether AI is useful. It is whether each new dollar invested produces enough future profit to justify today’s spending. That is the grown-up part of the AI story. Less sparkle, more spreadsheet.

The toll booths are getting crowded

Broadcom and Arm show why the market is looking beyond the most visible AI products.

Broadcom designs custom chips and networking technology used in large data centres. In simple terms, it helps the machines inside AI factories talk to each other quickly. Its upcoming earnings on 3 June 2026 matter because investors want to know whether AI chip demand is broadening beyond the most famous suppliers.

Broadcom’s first-quarter AI revenue reached 8.4 billion USD, up 106% from a year earlier, and the company guided for 10.7 billion USD in AI semiconductor revenue in the second quarter. The important question is not just growth. It is durability. Are customers signing long-term programmes? Are margins holding? Is demand coming from several large buyers, or just a few giant wallets with keyboards?

Arm is different. It historically makes money by licensing chip designs. Other companies use those designs and pay Arm royalties. This is a capital-light model, meaning it can generate revenue without building every physical product itself.

Now Arm is trying to move closer to the hardware profit pool. Its AI data-centre chip ambitions point to a company seeking a larger role in the buildout, not just a small royalty on someone else’s success. That could raise the potential reward, but also the risk. Selling more complete hardware is harder than collecting design royalties. It means more execution pressure, more supply-chain risk and more competition.

For the wider industry, this is the key implication. AI is creating a full supply chain, not a single product category. The beneficiaries may include chip designers, networking suppliers, power equipment makers, data-centre builders, cooling specialists and cloud platforms. The loser may be any company that spends heavily without clear pricing power.

Where the cycle can bite

The first risk is overbuilding. If too many firms assume AI demand will rise in a straight line, supply could grow faster than profitable use cases. Early warning signs include falling cloud prices, shorter customer contracts and rising data-centre vacancy.

The second risk is dilution. Equity raises can fund growth, but they also spread future profits across more shares. That can be sensible if returns are high. It becomes painful if spending rises faster than profit.

The third risk is concentration. Many AI suppliers depend on a small number of very large customers. That can create fast growth, but also sudden air pockets if one buyer delays orders. Investors should watch order visibility, customer mix and management language around demand.

Investor playbook

Separate AI users, AI builders and AI landlords. Their economics can look very different.
Watch cash flow, not only revenue growth. Revenue is the applause. Cash flow pays the rent.
Compare spending with returns. Capital expenditure should eventually support higher profits, not only bigger press releases.
Look for bottlenecks. Scarce chips, power, networking and cooling can shape who captures value.

The factory test

The AI story has not become less exciting. It has become more financial. That is healthy for long-term investors. Product cycles reward novelty. Capital cycles reward discipline, patience and the ability to earn good returns on large investments. Anthropic’s IPO filing may show how attractive private AI economics really are. Alphabet’s equity raise shows even giants need funding choices. Broadcom and Arm show that the plumbing of AI may be as important as the showroom. The next phase of AI will still be about intelligence, but for investors, the smarter question is simpler: who pays for the factory, and who collects the rent?

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The author does not hold any position in the financial instruments mentioned at the time of publication

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Theme - Artificial intelligence Artificial Intelligence

Investor Insights: The top 10 performing ETFs for ISAs in the last month

Tue, 02 Jun 2026 07:52:00 Z

Here we look at the top performing Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) that you can invest in with your ISA over the last month.

May produced strong returns for global markets as investors continued to put cash to work in equity markets.

As we enter June, we are looking at the best-performing Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) of the last month to show where investors have been looking and may continue to seek opportunity.

Themes of AI, cybersecurity and quantum computing were the headliners, but Space was the hottest topic of all in May.

Taking number one spot is the VanEck Space Innovators UCITS ETF, with a one-month total return of 42%. It's been very popular among investors seeking to tap into the interest around the SpaceX IPO and growing space tech economy. Built around sizeable stakes in retail favourites including Rocket Lab, Planet Labs, AST SpaceMobile and ViaSat among others. And we featured this ETF recently here.

Second is the GlobalX AI Semiconductor & Quantum UCITS ETF, which posted returns of 35%. Both the AI trade and growing interest around quantum computing technology have been two of the key themes over the last month so it’s not a surprise this ETF has performed well. This fund has heavy weightings in several of the best-performing AI-related stocks including Micron, AMD, SKY Hynix, ASML, TSMC, Broadcom, Intel, Cisco, Nvidia and Arm Holdings. We also saw the iShares MSCI Global Semiconductors UCITS ETF (+29%), and WisdomTree Quantum Computing UCITS ETF, with returns of +28%, making the top ten. Quantum stocks had a good month.

Third is the Global X Cybersecurity UCITS ETF with a return of almost 35%. Cybersecurity stocks had been caught up in an AI-fear-driven selloff in the software space as it was perceived that AI would undermine their businesses. But worries about what AI can do has spurred investors back into the cybersecurity space, with the ETF’s holdings including chunky stakes in Okta, CrowdStrike, Fortinet and Palo Alto Networks doing well last month. Fourth spot is taken by the First Trust Nasdaq Cyber Security UCITS ETF, which has posted returns of more than 32% in sterling terms. Also featuring in the top ten are the WisdomTree Cybersecurity USD (Acc) UCITS ETF, returns +30%; and the L&G Cyber Security UCITS ETF, returns +29%.

In fifth is the Invesco Solar Energy UCITS ETF, with a return of more than 31%. The combination of the Iran war pushing up oil and gas prices combined with the surging demand for energy to power AI demands lifted stocks in the renewables sector.

Also among the best performers was the Franklin FTSE Korea UCITS ETF, which performed strongly as South Korea’s KOSPI rallied over 30% for the month on surging AI demand for the likes of SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics.

Top 10 performing ETFs of the last month:

VanEck Space Innovators UCITS ETF

Global X AI Semiconductor & Quantum UCITS ETF

Global X Cybersecurity UCITS ETF

First Trust Nasdaq Cyber Security UCITS ETF

Invesco Solar Energy UCITS ETF

WisdomTree Cybersecurity USD (Acc) UCITS ETF

Franklin FTSE Korea UCITS ETF

L&G Cyber Security UCITS ETF

iShares MSCI Global Semiconductors UCITS ETF

WisdomTree Quantum Computing UCITS ETF

Source: Saxo Investor screener snapshot 2 June 2026, 1m total return, equity ETFs only, ISA Eligible.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: ETFs United Kingdom Highlighted articles UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer Volatility investor TagFeed

Market Quick Take - 2 June 2026

Tue, 02 Jun 2026 06:32:00 Z

Market Quick Take – 2 June 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

Equities: US equities reached fresh records on AI optimism, Europe softened on energy concerns, while Asia slipped on renewed Middle East tension.
Volatility: VIX higher, payrolls week, JOLTS today
Digital Assets: Bitcoin at seven-week low, IBIT weaker than ETHA, miners outperform.
Commodities: Crude oil swings on headlines, gold reclaims USD 4,500, corn leads grain market lower
Fixed Income: US bond yields soften following Monday’s crude and ISM-led spike
Currencies: Dollar pauses; USDJPY nears 160 despite record Japanese FX intervention efforts
Macro: Eurozone May CPI & US April JOLTS Job Openings

Macro headlines

Iran halted contacts with Washington after Israeli strikes in Lebanon and is weighing with allies closing the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. Trump says talks continue and a deal on Hormuz could come within a week. Lebanon wants any extended Hezbollah–Israel ceasefire to cover all its territory.
US ISM Manufacturing beat expectations in May, but prices paid stayed above 80 for a second month, the first time since the post-Covid period, underscoring sticky inflation.
Canada’s manufacturing PMI held in growth at 52.9 in May, just below April’s 53.3. Output, new orders, and employment rose on stronger demand, but input and output prices neared four-year highs, supply chains were hit by Middle East disruptions, and business confidence stayed subdued.
US construction spending rose 0.4% m/m in April 2026, its second straight increase and above expectations, lifting the y/y gain to 0.9%. Private and public spending both rose 0.4%, with single-family housing up 1.4% while multi-family and private non-residential dipped.
Germany’s manufacturing PMI was revised up to 50.1 in May 2026 from 49.9, signaling near-stagnation and a four-month low, as new orders fell, prices saw their biggest rise since June 2022, output growth slowed, job cuts deepened, and business expectations stayed muted but slightly improved from April.
Switzerland’s GDP grew 0.4% q/q in Q1 2026, below the 0.5% estimate. Industrial output rose on stronger manufacturing, but chemicals and pharma slumped, pulling goods exports down. Services growth was modest, with gains in transport and finance offset by weaker trade, retail, and tourism. Domestic demand was flat, as higher government spending was offset by lower investment, and imports fell on soft demand.
Germany’s retail sales fell 0.3% m/m in April 2026, their fourth straight decline but slightly better than forecasts. Non-food and online sales dropped sharply, while food sales rose 3.2%. On the year, sales were down 0.2%, pointing to weak consumer demand despite easing inflation.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0830 – UK April Mortgage Approvals
0900 – Eurozone May CPI
1400 – US April JOLTS Job Openings

Earnings this week

Monday (yesterday): Hewlett Packard Enterprise
Tuesday (today): Palo Alto Networks, Dollar General, Ulta Beauty
Wednesday: Broadcom, Inditex, CrowdStrike, Medtronic, Veeva Systems
Thursday: Ciena, Lululemon Athletica

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: US equities closed higher again, with the S&P 500 rising 0.3% to 7,599.96, the Nasdaq gaining 0.4% to 27,086.81 and the Dow Jones adding 0.1% to 51,078.88 as investors balanced higher oil prices against renewed AI enthusiasm. NVIDIA jumped 6.3% after unveiling new AI-focused PC chips at Computex, while IBM gained more than 7% on optimism around its AI and quantum positioning. Salesforce climbed nearly 10% as investors rotated back into software and AI-linked names, while airlines and utilities lagged as Brent crude moved sharply higher on fresh Iran-related uncertainty. Markets now shift focus toward US payrolls data later this week and whether higher oil prices begin leaking back into inflation expectations.
Europe: European equities traded softer, with the STOXX 600 falling around 0.8% as investors reassessed energy risks and geopolitical uncertainty after a strong May rally. Energy stocks outperformed as oil prices climbed, while travel and industrial names lost ground on concerns that a prolonged Middle East disruption could pressure costs and consumer demand. ASML remained relatively resilient as AI-related semiconductor demand stayed supportive, while luxury and airline stocks weakened on slower risk appetite. UK equities held up slightly better thanks to defensive exposure and commodity-linked companies. Attention now turns to Eurozone inflation data and any signs the European Central Bank may stay hawkish for longer.
Asia: Asian equities weakened on Tuesday as renewed fighting in the Middle East overshadowed AI optimism and pushed oil prices higher. Japan’s Nikkei fell around 1.6%, South Korea’s Kospi dropped roughly 1.7%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng outperformed with gains of about 1.0% as Chinese technology shares remained relatively firm. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and regional chip suppliers saw profit-taking after a strong rally, while South Korean technology names came under pressure amid rising inflation concerns. Chinese markets were steadier as investors continued to focus on policy support and AI-linked growth themes.

Volatility

Volatility edged higher on Monday, but markets remain far from a risk-off environment. The VIX rose 4.77% to 16.05 while the S&P 500 gained 0.26%, finishing at 7,599.96 and remaining close to record highs. Investors are increasingly focused on this week’s economic calendar, with US JOLTS job openings today, followed by ADP employment, ISM Services, the Beige Book, jobless claims, and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, all of which could influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy and bond yields.
Based on SPX options pricing, the market is currently implying an expected move of approximately ±76 points, or ±1.0%, by Friday’s close.
Today's 0DTE skew indicator remains relatively balanced near current market levels, although put options remain modestly more expensive than equivalent calls further below the market, suggesting some continued demand for downside protection without signalling elevated stress.

Digital Assets

Digital assets remain under pressure as institutional outflows and geopolitical uncertainty continue to weigh on sentiment. Bitcoin fell to around $70,200, its lowest level in more than seven weeks, while Ethereum traded just below $2,000.
Spot Bitcoin ETF flows remain a key focus after several weeks of heavy withdrawals, with IBIT falling 2.7% on Monday, compared with a more modest 0.6% decline for ETHA.
Investors are also digesting news that Strategy sold a small portion of its Bitcoin holdings for the first time since 2022, although the sale represented only a tiny fraction of its overall position.
Major altcoins were broadly weaker, with XRP (-2.2%) and Solana (-2.1%) declining alongside Bitcoin. Crypto-related equities showed a mixed picture, with Coinbase and MicroStrategy under pressure, while mining companies including MARA, RIOT, and CleanSpark outperformed.

Commodities

Crude oil continues to trade from one headline to the next, making it increasingly difficult for traders to maintain conviction beyond a few hours. On Monday, prices posted their biggest one-day gain in a month after rebounding from a six-week low when Iranian officials reportedly halted negotiations with the US in protest over Israel's expanded military operations in Lebanon. President Trump later sought to calm markets by insisting talks remained ongoing and that he had spoken with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, although the two sides offered differing accounts of the conversation. Beneath the headline-driven volatility, global energy markets continue to tighten, with the main focus remaining on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping artery that remains effectively shut, sustaining concerns about supply disruptions and elevated energy prices.
Gold continues to take its cues from the oil market given crude's influence on inflation expectations and, by extension, interest rates, bond yields and the dollar. The metal came under pressure on Monday as oil prices surged and stronger-than-expected US ISM manufacturing data temporarily pushed Treasury yields higher. While the report's Prices Paid component remained elevated, it came in slightly below expectations, helping to temper some inflation concerns. Since then, gold has recovered to trade back above USD 4,500. However, from a technical perspective, the metal remains in a short-term downtrend, with a break above USD 4,630 needed to signal a more constructive outlook and potentially attract fresh momentum buying.
Grain markets remain under pressure, with corn falling to fresh multi-week lows, down 9% in the last month, and wheat trading near a one-month low as favorable US growing conditions, strong South American harvest prospects and ample global supplies continue to weigh on prices. Soybeans have also softened amid good crop prospects and subdued demand from China. While grains have at times tracked movements in crude oil due to their role in biofuel production, supportive weather conditions and comfortable supply expectations are currently proving the dominant market drivers.

Fixed Income

US Treasuries came under pressure on Monday as crude oil prices reversed sharply higher and the May ISM Manufacturing report surprised to the upside, with the prices paid component remaining above 80 for a second consecutive month, underscoring persistent inflation pressures.
The benchmark 2-year Treasury yield climbed more than six basis points to nearly 4.09% before easing back to around 4.02%, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose to almost 4.52%. During the Asian session, however, the 10-year yield retreated to 4.43% as a pullback in oil prices helped ease some near-term inflation concerns.
Looking ahead, bond traders will continue to monitor developments in energy markets alongside key US economic releases, including the May ISM Services survey on Wednesday and the May nonfarm payrolls report on Friday.
In Japan, government bond yields fell after a strong auction of 10-year bonds attracted robust demand from investors seeking elevated yields. The benchmark 10-year JGB yield dropped as much as 10 basis points to 2.59%, having reached a near three-decade high of 2.8% last month, the highest level since 1996.

Currencies

The US dollar edged lower in early Tuesday trading after strengthening on Monday as oil prices surged and US ISM manufacturing data came in stronger than expected. Overall, the moves have remained relatively contained, with EURUSD trading near 1.1640 after an intraday swing from 1.1665 to 1.1610 on Monday.
The Japanese yen continued to weaken, with USDJPY rising to 159.67 and once again approaching the psychologically important 160 level. Attention remains focused on Japan's willingness to defend the currency after details released on Friday showed the Ministry of Finance spent nearly JPY 12 trillion (USD 74 billion) on recent intervention efforts. Given the limited and short-lived impact on the exchange rate, markets may increasingly question how willing the Takaichi government is to continue relying on direct intervention rather than addressing the underlying policy divergence that continues to weigh on the yen.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Advanced orders Europe Employment United States United Kingdom European Union (EU) XAUUSD USD EURUSD USDJPY Energy (Sector) Technology S P 500 index Quick Take Weekly Newsletter

Covered call or cash-secured put

Tue, 02 Jun 2026 06:30:00 Z

Covered calls and cash-secured puts can help long-term investors make portfolio decisions more deliberate by linking option trades to shares they already own or cash they are willing to deploy. The key is not chasing premium, but understanding the obligation: selling shares at a chosen price or buying them at a chosen level.

Covered call or cash-secured put

Two option strategies for investors who want to use shares or cash more deliberately.

Many long-term investors hear the word “options” and immediately think about speculation or high-risk trading. That reputation exists for a reason, but it is only part of the picture. Some option strategies are designed around shares or cash an investor already has.

Two of the most widely used examples are the covered call and the cash-secured put. Both strategies involve selling an option and receiving premium upfront. In return, the investor accepts an obligation. With a covered call, that obligation is to sell shares at a predetermined price. With a cash-secured put, it is to buy shares at a predetermined price.

That distinction matters because the right strategy often depends less on market forecasts and more on the investor’s starting point. Do you already own shares that you would be willing to sell at a higher price? Or do you have cash available and would be happy to buy shares at a lower price?

For many buy-and-hold investors, that is the real decision.

The covered call: income from shares you already own

A covered call starts with an existing share position. The investor owns at least 100 shares and sells a call option against those shares.

By selling the option, the investor receives premium income upfront. In exchange, they agree to sell the shares at the strike price if the option buyer decides to exercise the contract.

In simple terms, a covered call allows an investor to generate additional income from shares they already hold, while accepting that the upside above the strike price is limited.

A covered call can generate income from shares you already own, but it limits potential gains above the strike price. Source: Saxo

A simple example

Imagine an investor owns 100 shares of a company trading at EUR 50. The investor sells one call option with a strike price of EUR 55, an expiry one month away, and a premium of EUR 1.50 per share. Because one listed equity option typically represents 100 shares, the investor receives EUR 150 in premium before transaction costs.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.

From here, three broad outcomes are possible:

Stock stays below EUR 55: The option expires worthless. The investor keeps the shares and the EUR 150 premium.
Stock rises above EUR 55: The shares may be sold at EUR 55. The investor keeps the premium, but upside above EUR 55 is capped.
Stock falls sharply: The investor still keeps the premium, but the shares can lose significant value.

The premium provides a small buffer against losses, but it does not eliminate the downside risk of owning the shares. A covered call is still primarily an equity position. The option income can slightly improve returns or reduce the impact of a modest decline, but it does not fully protect the portfolio during a large sell-off.

The cash-secured put: income while waiting to buy shares

A cash-secured put works differently. Instead of starting with shares, the investor starts with cash.

The investor sells a put option and sets aside enough cash to buy 100 shares if assigned. In return for accepting that obligation, they receive premium upfront.

In practical terms, a cash-secured put can be viewed as a disciplined way of expressing willingness to buy a stock at a lower price.

A cash-secured put can generate income while waiting to buy shares, but the investor must be willing to buy if the stock falls below the strike price. Source: Saxo

A simple example

Using the same stock at EUR 50, the investor sells a put option with a strike price of EUR 45, an expiry one month away, and a premium of EUR 1.20 per share. The investor receives EUR 120 in premium before transaction costs and sets aside EUR 4,500 in cash in case the shares must be purchased.

From here, three broad outcomes are possible:

Stock stays above EUR 45: The option expires worthless. The investor keeps the EUR 120 premium and does not buy the shares.
Stock falls below EUR 45: The investor may have to buy 100 shares at EUR 45.
Stock falls sharply: The investor still buys at EUR 45, even if the market price is much lower.

The premium lowers the effective purchase price slightly, but it does not remove the risk of buying a declining stock. For that reason, cash-secured puts are generally most appropriate for stocks the investor would genuinely be comfortable owning for the long term.

Covered call or cash-secured put?

Although the two strategies are often compared, they usually solve different problems. A covered call is typically used by investors who already own shares and would be comfortable selling them at a higher price. A cash-secured put is typically used by investors who have available cash and would be comfortable buying shares at a lower price.

What do you need first? Covered call: at least 100 shares. Cash-secured put: enough cash to buy 100 shares.
What do you receive? Option premium in both cases.
What obligation do you accept? Covered call: sell shares at the strike price. Cash-secured put: buy shares at the strike price.
Typical investor mindset: Covered call: “I would sell at this price.” Cash-secured put: “I would buy at this price.”
Main benefit: Covered call: additional income on existing shares. Cash-secured put: income while waiting to buy shares.
Main risk: Covered call: missing further upside and exposure to share declines. Cash-secured put: buying shares during a decline.

Seen this way, the strategies are less about predicting markets and more about formalising decisions many long-term investors already make. A covered call says: “I would be willing to sell my shares at this level.” A cash-secured put says: “I would be willing to buy the shares at this level.”

Why these strategies appeal to long-term investors

One reason these strategies are often introduced to newer option investors is that they are linked to familiar portfolio decisions. The covered call is connected to an existing shareholding. The cash-secured put is connected to a potential future purchase.

Neither strategy relies on leverage in the way some more speculative option structures do. In both cases, the investor either owns the shares already or holds enough cash to meet the obligation.

That does not make the strategies risk-free. Both involve selling options, which means accepting obligations in exchange for premium. The premium is not free money. It is compensation for accepting a future commitment.

That distinction becomes especially important during volatile markets. A covered call investor can still face losses if the stock falls sharply. A cash-secured put investor can still be required to buy shares during a difficult market environment. As a result, many experienced investors focus less on the premium itself and more on whether they would genuinely be comfortable with the obligation attached to the trade.

Common misunderstandings

Long-term investors often discover that the biggest risks in these strategies are behavioural rather than technical.

With covered calls, some investors become frustrated if the stock rallies strongly and the shares are called away. The premium income can feel attractive at the start, but the strategy can underperform a simple shareholding during sharp upward moves.

With cash-secured puts, investors sometimes focus too heavily on the premium and not enough on the stock itself. A high premium can occasionally reflect elevated market risk rather than a particularly attractive opportunity.

That is why many experienced investors begin with a stock they already understand and would be comfortable owning without the option premium.

A practical way to think about both strategies

A covered call can be viewed as setting a target sale price for shares you already own.

A cash-secured put can be viewed as setting a target purchase price for shares you would like to own.

In both cases, the option premium is the compensation for making that commitment. For investors who already think in terms of target buying and selling levels, that framework can make options feel less abstract and more connected to decisions they already make in traditional investing.

Final thoughts

Covered calls and cash-secured puts are often presented as beginner-friendly option strategies, but they still require planning and discipline.

The key question is not whether the premium looks attractive. The key question is whether the investor would genuinely be comfortable with the obligation that comes with the trade.

A covered call may fit an investor who already owns shares and would be comfortable selling them at a predefined price. A cash-secured put may fit an investor who has available cash and would be comfortable buying shares at a lower level.

For long-term investors, that is often the most useful way to approach both strategies.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.

Educational Resources
Position management for covered calls and cash-secured puts Understanding the covered call option strategy Understanding the poor mans covered call Understanding the option collar strategy Understanding the naked put option strategy How put options work Understanding the protective put option strategy Guide on long-term options for strategic portfolio management Assignment explained - 01 - what every options trader and investor should know Assignment explained - 02 - how to avoid assignment Assignment explained - 03 - how to use option assignment to your advantage Assignment explained - 04 - option assignment cheat sheet

Educational Resources

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More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

London Quick Take - 2 June - Iran talks 'continuing', Anthropic files for IPO, FTSE reshuffle on deck

Tue, 02 Jun 2026 06:09:00 Z

Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.

Iran said it would stop negotiations with the US and vowed to completely block the Strait of Hormuz. So far so yet another headline to discount it seems. Oil jumped 7% initially before gains were faded. President Trump said he didn’t care if talks were over. This is all about what Israel is doing in Lebanon. Per Axios, Trump lashed out at Israel prime minister Netanyahu yesterday over Israel’s escalation in the country. Later Trump said in a post that “talks are continuing, at a rapid pace, with the Islamic Republic of Iran”. Stocks shrugged as the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones all advanced to record closes. European shares were a little more subdued with the Stoxx 600 –0.8% lower but are much firmer this morning. The FTSE 100 rose about a quarter of a percent despite some losses for heavyweights as advancers outnumbered decliners 4:1. Brent trades around $93 this morning after spiking close to $98 yesterday, whilst gold and silver both trade firmer this morning.

Headlines around Iran grab the steering wheel but the AI trade remains the engine for stock markets. Nvidia jumped as markets liked the news the company is moving ahead with an AI-focused, Arm-powered PC chip. NVDA rose +6%, while ARM Holdings was up 15%. Dell and HP, which are going to get these new superchips, both rose, while Intel, which has for years dominated the PC chip market, slipped. As anticipated, Anthropic revealed it’s moving ahead with an IPO, joining SpaceX and OpenAI this year. Salesforce rose 10% as its stake in the AI startup is now valued at $5bn. Staying on the IPO front, Tesla shares dipped 5% on speculation it could merge with SpaceX. Alphabet slipped 1% after it announced an $80bn capital raise to enable AI investments that includes a $10bn investment from Berkshire Hathaway. The AI capex supercycle just cranked up a notch. HPE shares soared after hours on a strong Q2 earnings print and upgraded guidance for the full year. HPE is well placed to take advantage of the AI boom as it specialises in cloud storage and data servers. The stock is up 90% YTD.

Elsewhere, Strategy shares slumped –5% on news it’s done the impossible and sold some Bitcoin. Actually, it’s not unexpected – I'd flagged about a month that MSTR had broken from its ‘never sell Bitcoin’ strategy after management said they’d sell Bitcoin when “advantageous” to the company. In fact, it also bought 2,395 Bitcoin ...so this was about tax loss harvesting. Nevertheless it‘s hit sentiment in MSTR stock and in Bitcoin as BTCUSD slipped under $70,000 to hit its lowest in almost two months.

On the FTSE 250, Chemring shares slipped due to exceptional costs with pre-tax profit down -27% despite the order book rising +8%. The company also warned that the delayed government defence investment plan meant a number of key contracts "are yet to be received". British American Tobacco led the falls on the FTSE 100 as it said full-year revenue and profits would come in at the lower end of guidance. Meanwhile the quarterly reshuffle is coming based on today's closing prices. Berkeley Group, Mondi and Rightmove could be relegated, while Computacenter and Investec could be promoted.

On the economic front, the US ISM manufacturing index beat expectations in May but prices paid stayed above 80 for a second straight month, underscoring the inflation worry. The focus now turns to the nonfarm payrolls report on Friday.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities United Kingdom Highlighted articles UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer FR US Actualites et Analyses Trump Version 2 - Investors Volatility investor TagFeed En hurtig tanke

Nvidia’s CPU push: A new AI ecosystem and new bottlenecks

Tue, 02 Jun 2026 02:30:00 Z

Key points:

Nvidia’s RTX Spark shows the AI trade is moving from “who owns the GPU?” to “who controls the full computing stack?” CPUs, GPUs, Windows integration, cloud deployment, memory, networking and power infrastructure are now part of the same investment story.
The next AI bottleneck may not be chip supply alone. As AI shifts from cloud training to local inference and agentic AI, the pressure points move to deployment capacity, advanced memory, networking, rack-scale infrastructure, grid access and cooling.
A broader ecosystem does not mean every AI-linked stock wins. The stronger beneficiaries are likely to be companies with a direct role in Nvidia’s ecosystem, real infrastructure relevance or pricing power. The weaker “AI-adjacent” names may struggle as investors become more selective.

Nvidia’s AI story is no longer just about GPUs.

With RTX Spark, Nvidia is moving deeper into CPUs, Windows PCs and local AI computing. The new AI superchip, developed with Microsoft and MediaTek, is designed to bring AI workloads directly onto laptops and desktops rather than relying only on the cloud.

That matters because the AI trade is entering a new phase. The first wave was about training large models in data centres. The next wave is increasingly about inference — running those models constantly, efficiently and closer to the user.

That requires more than GPUs. It needs CPUs to coordinate workloads, memory to move data, networking to connect systems, cloud providers to deploy capacity, and power infrastructure to keep increasingly dense AI factories running.

For investors, this creates a new map of potential beneficiaries. The question is no longer simply: who makes the AI chip?

It is: who controls the bottlenecks as AI moves from cloud training to local inference, from GPUs to full systems, and from data centres to personal AI computers?

Related companies investors may watch

1. Nvidia: The platform leader

Nvidia remains the centre of the AI ecosystem.

RTX Spark strengthens Nvidia’s push from GPU supplier to broader computing platform. It brings Nvidia into Windows PCs and local AI devices, while its Vera Rubin platform extends its reach across data-centre CPUs, GPUs, networking and rack-scale AI systems. Nvidia’s Vera Rubin NVL72 platform includes Vera CPUs, Rubin GPUs, NVLink, ConnectX networking and BlueField DPUs for large-scale AI inference.

How it links to Nvidia’s ecosystem: Nvidia is trying to own more of the AI stack, from the personal AI computer to the AI factory.

Risk: Expectations are already high. Any slowdown in AI capex, margin pressure or customer diversification could hit sentiment quickly.

2. Arm: The architecture beneficiary

Arm has a clear thematic link to Nvidia’s CPU ambitions because RTX Spark is built around Arm-based architecture.

This matters because PCs have historically been dominated by x86 chips from Intel and AMD. Apple has already shown that Arm-based computing can work well in premium devices, while Qualcomm has been pushing Windows-on-Arm. Nvidia’s entry could give that shift another push.

How it links to Nvidia’s ecosystem: Nvidia’s CPU ambitions increase Arm’s relevance in AI PCs, local AI devices and potentially future server designs.

Risk: Windows-on-Arm still needs broader app compatibility, developer support and consumer adoption.

3. Microsoft: The Windows AI gatekeeper

Microsoft is directly tied to the RTX Spark story.

Its upcoming Surface Laptop Ultra will use Nvidia’s RTX Spark chip, giving Microsoft a flagship device for the local AI PC era. Microsoft says the new Nvidia-powered Windows PCs are built for developers, creators and power users, and are designed for the new wave of AI agents.

How it links to Nvidia’s ecosystem: Microsoft provides the Windows platform, developer environment and enterprise AI layer that Nvidia needs to make AI PCs useful at scale.

Risk: AI PCs still need must-have use cases. Without that, this could be another premium hardware cycle rather than a broad upgrade wave.

4. MediaTek: The silicon partner

MediaTek is linked to Nvidia’s RTX Spark push through the chip development partnership.

Nvidia said RTX Spark was developed with Microsoft and MediaTek, giving MediaTek exposure to a higher-end computing opportunity beyond smartphones and connected devices.

How it links to Nvidia’s ecosystem: MediaTek helps Nvidia move into CPU-led Windows PC silicon.

Risk: MediaTek may remain a partner in the stack, while Nvidia captures the larger platform economics.

5. TSMC: The foundry backbone

TSMC remains the manufacturing backbone of the AI trade.

Whether demand comes from GPUs, CPUs, AI PCs or rack-scale AI systems, leading-edge chips still need advanced foundry capacity. If AI demand expands from data centres into PCs and edge devices, the need for advanced manufacturing remains central.

How it links to Nvidia’s ecosystem: TSMC enables production of the advanced chips behind Nvidia’s AI platforms.

Risk: TSMC’s importance also comes with Taiwan geopolitical risk and customer concentration.

6. CoreWeave and Nebius: The AI cloud deployment partners

Cloud infrastructure players may attract more investor attention as Nvidia’s ecosystem expands from chips into deployment capacity.

CoreWeave is one of the most direct cloud names linked to Nvidia’s infrastructure cycle. It has become the first cloud provider to deploy Nvidia’s Vera Rubin NVL72 systems, reinforcing its role as a specialist AI cloud platform built for large-scale inference and next-generation AI workloads. That strengthens the view that Nvidia’s latest hardware is not just a chip story, but a full deployment story.

Nebius also deserves a place on the list. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang highlighted Nebius at Computex, calling it one of the “clouds” growing incredibly fast within Nvidia’s AI ecosystem. The mention matters because it signals Nvidia’s endorsement of Nebius as part of the emerging AI infrastructure layer. The report also highlighted customers such as Cursor, Revolut and Shopify, suggesting Nebius is gaining traction with real enterprise users.

How it links to Nvidia’s ecosystem: CoreWeave and Nebius help turn Nvidia’s hardware into usable AI compute capacity. They sit at the deployment layer, where demand for Nvidia chips becomes actual cloud infrastructure for enterprises and AI developers.

Risk: This is a capital-intensive business. These companies need to invest heavily in infrastructure, and returns depend on utilisation, customer growth, pricing power and continued AI demand.

7. Dell, HPE, Supermicro and Lenovo: The AI infrastructure builders

AI systems are increasingly deployed as full racks, not standalone chips.

Dell is especially relevant because Dell and CoreWeave are linked to the first Vera Rubin deployment, showing how Nvidia’s chips become physical AI infrastructure. HPE, Supermicro and Lenovo also sit in the broader AI server and rack-scale infrastructure ecosystem.

How it links to Nvidia’s ecosystem: These companies package, deploy and scale Nvidia systems for cloud providers, hyperscalers and enterprises.

Risk: Hardware integration can be competitive. Revenue growth does not always mean strong margins.

8. Broadcom, Marvell, Arista and Cisco: The networking layer

As AI workloads scale, networking becomes a bigger bottleneck.

Large AI clusters need faster connectivity, switching, Ethernet, custom silicon and low-latency data movement. Nvidia’s own Vera Rubin architecture includes NVLink, networking and DPUs, showing how central connectivity has become to AI performance.

How it links to Nvidia’s ecosystem: Networking companies benefit from the same AI data-centre buildout that Nvidia is driving.

Risk: This bucket remains sensitive to hyperscaler capex cycles.

9. SK Hynix, Samsung and Micron: The memory layer

AI needs memory as much as compute.

High-bandwidth memory and advanced DRAM remain essential as AI models become larger and inference volumes rise. SK Hynix, Samsung and Micron are therefore tied to the broader Nvidia ecosystem through memory demand.

How it links to Nvidia’s ecosystem: Nvidia platforms need advanced memory to deliver performance at scale.

Risk: Memory is still cyclical. AI demand is strong, but pricing can still swing with supply.

10. Dell, HP, Lenovo: The AI PC makers

RTX Spark brings PC makers into Nvidia’s orbit.

Nvidia says RTX Spark is designed for slim laptops and small desktops, while reports point to major PC makers including Microsoft, Dell, Lenovo, Acer, Asus and others supporting the platform.

How it links to Nvidia’s ecosystem: PC makers are the route to market for Nvidia’s local AI computing ambitions.

Risk: PC margins are often thin. The key test is whether AI PCs command premium pricing and trigger a real replacement cycle.

11. Siemens, Fluence and nVent: The power and cooling layer

This may be one of the more important second-order AI themes.

As AI systems become denser, the bottleneck shifts from chips alone to electricity, grid access, battery storage, power distribution and cooling. Siemens, Nvidia, Fluence and nVent have developed a reference electrical and power architecture for data centres running Nvidia’s Vera Rubin NVL72 platform. Siemens says the design is built to support speed, efficiency and reliability for AI factory infrastructure.

Fluence brings battery energy storage and grid-support solutions. nVent brings power distribution and thermal management. Siemens brings electrical infrastructure, controls and automation.

How it links to Nvidia’s ecosystem: These companies could help solve the power and cooling constraints that determine how fast Nvidia-based AI factories can be built.

Risk: Power infrastructure is essential, but it can be project-based, exposed to permitting delays and lower-margin than semiconductors.

Companies likely to face more pressure

Nvidia’s CPU push also raises pressure on existing chip leaders.

Intel may face additional competitive pressure if Nvidia gains traction in CPUs and Windows-based AI PCs.
AMD could face a more nuanced challenge. It remains strong in CPUs and is pushing into AI accelerators, but Nvidia’s tighter integration of CPUs, GPUs, networking and software raises the competitive bar.
Qualcomm could see both validation and competition. Nvidia may help the Windows-on-Arm category, but it also becomes a powerful new rival.
Apple is less directly exposed because it controls its own ecosystem, but Nvidia’s move raises expectations for local AI performance in premium devices.

Investor takeaway

Nvidia’s RTX Spark announcement makes the AI trade broader, but also more selective.

The next phase of AI is less about one chip and more about the full ecosystem: architecture, foundry, memory, networking, servers, cloud deployment, PCs, power and cooling.

The related companies to watch are those closest to Nvidia’s bottlenecks: Arm for architecture, Microsoft for Windows AI PCs, MediaTek for silicon partnership, TSMC for manufacturing, CoreWeave for AI cloud deployment, Dell and server makers for infrastructure, memory and networking names for performance, and Siemens, Fluence and nVent for power and cooling.

But not every company linked to the theme will win equally. The real test is who captures pricing power as AI moves from training to inference, from cloud to device, and from chips to power-hungry AI factories.

Risks to the view

Adoption risk: AI PCs and local AI devices still need clear use cases.
Valuation risk: Many AI-linked names already price in strong growth.
Competition risk: Intel, AMD, Qualcomm and Apple are not standing still.
Capex risk: AI infrastructure spending is large, and investors will increasingly question returns.
Power risk: Data-centre expansion depends on grid access, energy availability, cooling capacity and permitting timelines.
Supply-chain risk: Advanced chips remain heavily dependent on TSMC and Taiwan’s semiconductor ecosystem.
Monetisation risk: AI features must translate into revenue, margins or stronger customer retention.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

Charu Chanana

Chief Investment Strategist

Saxo

Topics: Equities Theme Category - Equities Artificial Intelligence Theme - Artificial intelligence NVIDIA Corporation NVidia Corp. Advanced Micro Devices Intel Corp Intel Corp. Microsoft UKMustRead

Asia Market Quick Take – 02 June, 2026

Tue, 02 Jun 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 2 June, 2026

Key points:

Macro: Iran halts talks with US after Israeli strikes in Lebanon
Equities:S&P 500 gained 0.3% to new highs as Nvidia(+6.3%) announces new CPU chip
FX:USD firms; USDJPY nears 160 despite record Japanese FX intervention efforts
Commodities: Copper rallied above $6.50 while WTI rose above $90
Fixed income: 30-year yield down in 7 of the past 8 sessions, below 5%

------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

Iran halted contacts with Washington after Israeli strikes in Lebanon and is weighing with allies closing the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. Trump says talks continue and a deal on Hormuz could come within a week. Lebanon wants any extended Hezbollah–Israel ceasefire to cover all its territory.
US ISM Manufacturing beat expectations in May, but prices paid stayed above 80 for a second month, the first time since the post-Covid period, underscoring sticky inflation.
Canada’s manufacturing PMI held in growth at 52.9 in May, just below April’s 53.3. Output, new orders, and employment rose on stronger demand, but input and output prices neared four-year highs, supply chains were hit by Middle East disruptions, and business confidence stayed subdued.
US construction spending rose 0.4% m/m in April 2026, its second straight increase and above expectations, lifting the y/y gain to 0.9%. Private and public spending both rose 0.4%, with single-family housing up 1.4% while multi-family and private nonresidential dipped.
Germany’s manufacturing PMI was revised up to 50.1 in May 2026 from 49.9, signaling near-stagnation and a four-month low, as new orders fell, prices saw their biggest rise since June 2022, output growth slowed, job cuts deepened, and business expectations stayed muted but slightly improved from April.
Switzerland’s GDP grew 0.4% q/q in Q1 2026, below the 0.5% estimate. Industrial output rose on stronger manufacturing, but chemicals and pharma slumped, pulling goods exports down. Services growth was modest, with gains in transport and finance offset by weaker trade, retail, and tourism. Domestic demand was flat, as higher government spending was offset by lower investment, and imports fell on soft demand.
Germany’s retail sales fell 0.3% m/m in April 2026, their fourth straight decline but slightly better than forecasts. Non-food and online sales dropped sharply, while food sales rose 3.2%. On the year, sales were down 0.2%, pointing to weak consumer demand despite easing inflation.

Equities:

US — S&P 500 rose 0.3% to a record 7,599.96 on Monday, its eighth consecutive gain and longest winning streak since May 2025. Nasdaq 100 gained 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.4% to 27,086.81, its 19th record close of 2026. Nvidia surged 6.3%, leading the index, after unveiling a new superchip described as the most efficient PC chip ever built. MGM Resorts was the single largest gainer, up 16.1%. Anthropic's confidential IPO filing also boosted AI sentiment, valuing the company at $965b. Salesforce rose 9.6% after revealing a stake in Anthropic worth about $5b. In after-hours trade, HPE soared after guiding for FY26 revenue growth of 29–33%, well above consensus, citing surging AI server demand. Credo Technology fell approximately 12% after hours on disappointing results.
EU — European equities declined on Monday, weighed by Iran war uncertainty and a lack of AI-linked exposure. The Stoxx 600 fell 0.8%, its biggest drop since 15 May, with healthcare leading losses. The FTSE 100 dropped 0.7% to 10,338.95, its lowest close since 19 May, with AstraZeneca down 2.7% and Persimmon falling 5.4%. The DAX fell 0.4% to 25,003.04, with Rheinmetall the largest decliner at -6.7%. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed 0.26% lower at 6,034.95, down for a third consecutive session. EasyJet was a notable outperformer, jumping as much as 13% to a three-month high.
Asia — The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.9% after closing at an all-time high on Monday. The Nikkei opened 0.5% lower at 66,629, dragged by auto and chemical stocks — Toyota is down 2.9% and Shin-Etsu Chemical fell 4.1%. The Kospi opened 1.1% higher but reversed sharply to trade around 0.3% lower. S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 futures are off 0.4%. On Monday, the Hang Seng rose 0.9% to 25,398, led by Meituan (+6.5%) after the company reported a Q1 adjusted net loss of 4.97 billion yuan, narrower than the 6.83 billion yuan estimate. Mainland investors bought a net HK$4.66 billion via Stock Connect. NIO and XPeng ADRs each gained 5.4% in New York after May deliveries rose month-on-month. Daikin fell as much as 5% after being cut to Hold at Jefferies.

Earnings this week:

Tuesday: Palo Alto Networks, Dollar General, Ulta Beauty, GEK Terna, GitLab
Wednesday: Broadcom, Inditex, CrowdStrike, Medtronic, Veeva Systems
Thursday: Ciena, Samsara, Planet Labs, Lululemon, Rubrik
Friday: Sectra, Mr Price Group, ABM Industries, Foschini Group

FX:

USD strengthened with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edged up 0.25% on Monday, snapping a two-day decline, as Iran peace deal uncertainty revived safe-haven demand for the greenback.
USDJPY rose to 159.67, approaching the psychologically significant 160 level. Japan spent a record $73.6 billion intervening to prop up the yen over the past month, but the currency has nearly retraced the full move. Markets are watching closely for renewed intervention.
EURUSD slipped 0.1% to 1.1647, though the euro is expected to find support as the ECB is widely anticipated to hike rates at its June meeting, narrowing the policy gap with the US.
GBPUSD at 1.3460 was the only G10 gainer Monday, extending a three-day advance. With few domestic drivers, sterling is seen largely driven by Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls.
AUDUSD fell to 0.7160 as Lebanon-related tensions boosted the USD. RBA Board member Ian Harper spoke, but with limited market impact. NZDUSD sits near 0.5930, testing a key downtrend from the February 2021 high; a June close above could signal further gains.

Commodities:

Gold fell 1.9% to settle at $4,475.20 per troy ounce, pressured by persistent inflation and elevated rate expectations that limit the appeal of the metal as a safe haven, even as geopolitical uncertainty from the Iran conflict provides a partial floor.
Comex copper surged 2.59% to $6.524 per pound on Monday, its third-highest close in history, as traders position ahead of the US Commerce Department's June 30 deadline to deliver an updated recommendation on import tariffs for refined copper. Citi sees copper potentially reaching $14,500 per tonne in June.
US crude oil rallied toward $92 per barrel amid stalled Iran ceasefire talks before paring some gains after Trump's comments on Israel-Hezbollah. Elevated oil prices continue to feed through into broader inflation expectations and are a key variable for global bond markets.

Fixed income:

The US Treasury yield curve shifted higher in a bear-flattening move, with the 2-year yield rising 3.8 basis points to 4.051% and the 10-year yield up 3.6 basis points to 4.475%, snapping a five-day streak of falling yields. The move was driven by the stronger-than-expected ISM Manufacturing print and elevated prices paid data.
The 30-year Treasury yield edged down slightly to 4.990%, continuing its recent trend of outperforming the front end. The 30-year has fallen in seven of the past eight sessions and remains well off its 52-week high of 5.180% hit on 19 May.
PIMCO argued that the recent rise in long-dated Treasury yields is driven primarily by shifting Fed rate path expectations rather than AI-related debt issuance or term premium, pushing back on a widely cited narrative. US junk bond spreads dropped to a four-month low, with high-yield credit continuing to be supported by solid fundamentals and softer inflation data.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

Gold fell again in May as Middle East crisis reshaped market focus

Mon, 01 Jun 2026 13:00:00 Z

Key points:

Gold fell for a third consecutive month in May, albeit at a much reduced pace as the Middle East conflict shifted investor attention towards its broader implications for global energy markets, inflation, the dollar and interest rates
Gold tends to perform best during financial or economic shocks that weaken the dollar and lower real yields. The current energy-driven inflation shock has had the opposite effect, supporting yields and the dollar while reducing expectations for rate cuts, thereby creating a headwind for gold.
Fiscal debt concerns, de-dollarisation, sticky inflation and not least central bank demand are expected to remain key pillars of support, the latter despite some temporary selling linked to energy-related pressures.

Since hitting a record peak near USD 5,600 in late January, gold has endured a challenging period, with prices falling for a third consecutive month in May, albeit by less than 2%, as the Middle East conflict shifted investor attention towards its broader implications for global energy markets, inflation, the dollar and interest rates. Despite the recent pullback, bullion remains up 5% so far in 2026, 36% over the past year and 91% over the last two years.

The prolonged disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has kept oil, gas, and refined fuel prices elevated, creating a market environment that has historically been less supportive for gold. Rather than triggering a classic flight to safety, higher energy prices have fuelled inflation concerns, pushed bond yields higher, strengthened the US dollar, and reduced expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate cuts. Together, these developments have created a significant headwind for a non-yielding asset such as gold.

The correction also coincided with a renewed surge in equity markets, particularly across AI-related sectors, reducing investor appetite for alternative assets. At the same time, several energy-importing nations faced rising financing pressures, prompting some central banks to liquidate portions of their gold reserves to support domestic currencies or help offset higher energy costs.

The recent setback once again highlights an important distinction often overlooked by investors. Gold is widely regarded as an inflation hedge, but the nature of the inflation shock matters.

Historically, gold performs best during periods of financial stress or economic weakness when inflation concerns are accompanied by falling real yields and a weakening dollar. The current situation is different. A supply-driven energy shock pushes inflation higher while simultaneously supporting yields and the dollar. This combination can temporarily undermine gold's appeal despite rising consumer prices.

Interest rate expectations remain a key focus among precious metal investors. As a non-interest-bearing asset, gold becomes more attractive when rates fall because the opportunity cost of holding it declines. Conversely, when markets push back expectations for rate cuts, gold often struggles.

This dynamic has been clearly visible over recent months as traders reduced expectations for monetary easing in response to elevated energy prices and persistent inflation risks. However, while interest rate expectations have weighed on sentiment, they are unlikely to remain the dominant driver indefinitely.

Once the geopolitical situation stabilises and the energy shock begins to fade, we expect investors to refocus on the structural themes that have underpinned the bull market in gold over recent years.

Central bank demand remains at the top of that list. While some countries have recently reduced holdings, these sales appear largely tactical rather than strategic. The broader trend of reserve diversification remains firmly intact, particularly among emerging-market central banks that continue to hold relatively small allocations to gold compared with developed economies.

Recent geopolitical developments have, if anything, reinforced the strategic case for gold ownership. Concerns about sanctions risk, reserve diversification, fiscal sustainability, and long-term currency debasement continue to encourage central banks to reduce reliance on traditional reserve assets. We therefore expect central banks to remain net buyers over the coming year.

Chinese demand also remains an important pillar of support. While investor participation has fluctuated alongside broader market sentiment, the longer-term desire among Chinese investors to diversify savings away from property and traditional financial assets continues to support bullion demand. China's central bank increased its gold reserves in April for the sixth consecutive month, likely helping drive a tripling of total gold imports via Hong Kong to 58.6 metric tons.

Meanwhile, fiscal debt concerns across major economies continue to support the investment case for hard assets. Government borrowing levels remain elevated, while the investment requirements associated with electrification, artificial intelligence, energy security, and climate adaptation are likely to keep upward pressure on commodity demand and long-term inflation expectations.

From a technical perspective, gold has so far found strong support near its 200-day moving average, currently located just above USD 4,400 per ounce. The market has tested this level twice during the recent correction and each time attracted renewed buying interest. While this does not eliminate the risk of further short-term weakness, it does suggest that long-term investors remain active beneath the market.

For now, many investors appear content to wait for greater clarity regarding the Middle East conflict before increasing exposure. However, once attention shifts away from the daily fluctuations in energy prices and geopolitical headlines, we believe the market will once again focus on the structural drivers that helped underpin prices in recent years. As a result, we maintain our constructive long-term outlook in the years ahead especially if the trends of reserve diversification, fiscal expansion, and de-dollarisation continue to gather momentum.

Gold drivers - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Gold, overall in a downtrend since March is currently boxed in between two moving average lines - Source: Saxo

Spot gold - Source: Saxo

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

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Educational resources:
A short guide to trading crude oil
The basics of trading wheat online
A short guide to trading gold
A short guide to trading copper
A short guide to trading silver
Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?

Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

More from the author
Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on Twitter and BlueSky social media platforms

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Commodities Iran USA Inflation Crude Oil Gold

What Stocks Were Saxo Clients Buying and Selling Last Week?

Mon, 01 Jun 2026 10:04:00 Z

Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.

The most bought and sold stocks and ETFs last week.

Clients were buying into semiconductor stocks last week with Micron the most traded single stock as shares continued their dizzying rally.

Shares in the memory chipmaker jumped almost 20% in a single day to join the $1tn market cap club after UBS lifted its price target to $1,625 from $535. Micron is seen being at the centre of AI-driven demand for memory.

The move by Micron knocked Nvidia off the top spot to second on the list of most traded stocks last week, but with a strong 70% net buy percentage it was one of the most popular.

Underlining strong client interest in the chips space the VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF was the fifth most traded name with 83% buys.

On the flip side clients were net sellers of some popular tech stocks including Microsoft, Oracle, AMD and Meta Platforms.

Space tech stocks are gaining traction ahead of the SpaceX IPO – Redwire, AST SpaceMobile and RocketLab among the most popular names to trade last week. Redwire hasn’t appeared in this series before, but clients latched onto the stock’s 40% rally last week with 71% buys. The VanEck Space Innovators UCITS ETF registered 92% net buys to top the most popular rankings. Quantum stocks were also among the most actively traded as they continued their volatile climb this year.

Among UK shares only BP and Rolls-Royce made the top 30 most traded stocks and ETFs.

Here’s a list of our top 30 most traded stocks and ETFs of the last week with the percentage of buys.

Top Stocks (Most Traded)	Buy%
Micron Technology Inc.	56%
NVIDIA Corp.	70%
Microsoft Corp.	42%
Palantir Technologies Inc.	51%
VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF	83%
AST SpaceMobile Inc.	53%
ServiceNow Inc.	75%
IonQ Inc.	66%
Meta Platforms Inc.	46%
Marvell Technology Inc.	61%
Redwire Corp.	71%
Rigetti Computing, Inc.	28%
D-Wave Quantum Inc.	50%
Intel Corp.	49%
Oracle Corp.	42%
Advanced Micro Devices Inc.	37%
SanDisk Corp	70%
Sivers Semiconductors AB	56%
Vanguard S&P 500 Acc UCITS ETF	85%
Broadcom Inc.	78%
Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS Acc ETF	81%
BP Plc	64%
Coinbase Global Inc	44%
Rocket Lab Corporation	58%
IBM Corp.	64%
IREN Ltd.	72%
Alphabet Inc. Class A	78%
iShares Core MSCI World UCITS ETF	88%
Rolls-Royce Holdings PLC	53%
Salesforce Inc.	76%

Most Popular - strongest buy % among our top 50 traded stocks and ETFs of the last week.

Top Stocks (Most Popular)	Buy%
VanEck Space Innovators UCITS ETF	92%
iShares Core MSCI World UCITS ETF	88%
Vanguard S&P 500 Acc UCITS ETF	85%
iShares MSCI Global Semiconductors UCITS ETF	85%
VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF	83%
Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS Acc ETF	81%
ASML Holding NV	79%
Broadcom Inc.	78%
Alphabet Inc. Class A	78%
Salesforce Inc.	76%

Read our client and market trends for April to see what other Saxo clients were doing last month and what some of the big market moves were.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities United Kingdom Highlighted articles UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer FR US Actualites et Analyses Trump Version 2 - Investors Volatility investor TagFeed En hurtig tanke

COT update: Peace deal hopes spark commodity liquidation as dollar longs surge

Mon, 01 Jun 2026 09:00:00 Z

Our weekly Commitment of Traders update returns highlighting future positions and changes made by hedge funds and other speculators across commodities and forex during the week to last Tuesday, 26 May 2026

Key points:

Our weekly Commitment of Traders update highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across forex and commodity markets during the week ending 26 May 2026.
In FX, the gross USD long against eight IMM currency futures jumped 57% to a near multi-month high as momentum-driven buying extended into a second week, led by selling of JPY, AUD, and CAD.
Growing confidence in a potential US-Iran peace deal triggered broad-based liquidation across commodities, with all but three of the 24 major futures contracts covered in this report recording net selling by managed money traders.
In energy, the combined WTI and Brent crude oil net long was reduced for a fourth consecutive week to a two-month low, leaving bullish bets roughly one-third below the mid-March peak.
In agriculture, weakness across grains and soybeans, driven by lower energy prices and improving US crop weather conditions, sparked broad profit-taking, with hedge funds reducing bullish exposure across all six major grain and oilseed contracts.

Forex:

In FX, despite posting only a modest gain during the reporting week, momentum-driven buying of the US dollar extended into a second consecutive week. As a result, the gross long dollar position against eight IMM currency futures rose 57% to USD 16.5 billion, just below the multi-month high reached in early April.

At the individual currency level, speculative selling was concentrated in the JPY, AUD, and CAD, with more moderate selling seen in the EUR. Meanwhile, modest demand emerged for the CHF, GBP, and NZD.

Despite continued intervention warnings from the Bank of Japan, speculative traders pushed the JPY net short to a 22-month high of 115,000 contracts, equivalent to approximately USD 9 billion

Non-commercial IMM forex futures position - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Commodities

In the latest COT reporting week to 26 May, growing confidence in a potential US-Iran peace deal helped drive the Bloomberg Commodity Index 4% lower, with only six of the 25 major commodity futures tracked in this report posting gains. At the sector level, energy slumped more than 9%, while agriculture fell 3.5%, more than offsetting gains across industrial and precious metals. As the dust settled on a busy, albeit holiday-shortened week, all but three contracts registered net selling, led by crude oil, natural gas, soybeans, corn, and cattle.

In energy, the combined WTI and Brent crude oil net long was reduced for a fourth consecutive week to 370,000 contracts, a two-month low and roughly one-third below the mid-March peak. Notably, the reduction reflects both long liquidation and fresh bearish positioning, with the gross long declining by 83,000 contracts while the gross short increased by 100,000 contracts. Elsewhere, positioning changes across refined products were mixed, while the natural gas net short expanded to its largest level in two years.

In metals, gold saw a modest amount of short covering ahead of another failed attempt to force prices below the 200-day moving average. Silver and platinum both experienced net selling, while copper—one of the week's strongest performers—recorded a small reduction in its net long, driven primarily by fresh short selling.

In agriculture, weakness across grains and soybeans, driven by lower energy prices and improving US crop weather prospects, triggered substantial profit-taking across all six major contracts. Combined, the sector's net long fell by 146,000 contracts to 667,000, just three weeks after reaching a record high of 874,000 contracts. Across soft commodities and livestock, all contracts experienced net selling, led by sugar as well as recent high-flyers cotton and lean hogs.

Managed money positions in key commodities futures covering the week to 26 May, 2026

Energy

Precious and industrial metals

Selected agriculture commodities

What is the Commitments of Traders report?

The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class.

Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and other
Financials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and other
Forex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators)

The main reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of speculators, such as hedge funds and trend-following CTA's are:

They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged
This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments
It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming

Do note that this group tends to anticipate, accelerate, and amplify price changes that have been set in motion by fundamentals. Being followers of momentum, this strategy often sees this group of traders buy into strength and sell into weakness, meaning that they are often found holding the biggest long near the peak of a cycle or the biggest short position ahead of a through in the market.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Related articles/content
29 May 2026: Commodities weekly Energy retreat masks deeper supply concerns as metals shine 22 May 2026: Commodities weekly: Oil's grip on macro and markets remain firm 21 May 2026: Oil takes control of markets as diplomacy headlines collide with tightening supply 19 May 2026: Gold Near-term headwinds meet longer-term structural support 18 May 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 12 May 2026 13 May 2026: Grains surge as USDA wheat shock meets biofuel-driven soy demand 12 May 2026: Silver breaks higher as investors rediscover its dual appeal 11 May 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 5 May 2026 8 May 2026: Gold holds firm as central banks and investors look beyond price 3 May 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 28 April 2026 1 May 2026: Commodities rally broadens in April as Middle East disruption tightens global supply chains 30 April 2026: Gold rises with oil as geopolitical risk overwhelms rate headwinds 29 April 2026: Crude rally extends as Strait disruption continues OPECs role tested after UAE exit 28 April 2026: Precious metals face near-term pressure from oil-driven inflation 27 April 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 21 April 2026 24 April 2026: Commodities weekly From fuel shortages to food risks as Hormuz remains shut 22 April 2026: Severe supply disruption meets rising demand destruction as Hormuz closure persists 20 April 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 14 April 2026 14 April 2026: Precious metals rebuild as macro tailwinds return but gold awaits breakout confirmation 13 April 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to April 7 2026 10 April 2026: Commodities weekly Energy slumps but physical oil stress keeps the market on edge 9 April 2026: Crude rebounds toward USD 100 as Hormuz bottlenecks keep physical market tight 8 April 2026: Gold correction meets macro reset as ceasefire reverses key headwinds 7 April 2026: Europe's gas market shifts from stress to relief but the real test still lies ahead 7 April 2026: WTI above Brent a curve distortion not a benchmark inversion 7 April 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 31 March 2026 1 April 2026: Commodities monthly Energy surge and second-round effects dominate as metals correct Educational resources: A short guide to trading crude oil The basics of trading wheat online A short guide to trading gold A short guide to trading copper A short guide to trading silver Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment? Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

Related articles/content

29 May 2026: Commodities weekly Energy retreat masks deeper supply concerns as metals shine
22 May 2026: Commodities weekly: Oil's grip on macro and markets remain firm
21 May 2026: Oil takes control of markets as diplomacy headlines collide with tightening supply
19 May 2026: Gold Near-term headwinds meet longer-term structural support
18 May 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 12 May 2026
13 May 2026: Grains surge as USDA wheat shock meets biofuel-driven soy demand
12 May 2026: Silver breaks higher as investors rediscover its dual appeal
11 May 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 5 May 2026
8 May 2026: Gold holds firm as central banks and investors look beyond price
3 May 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 28 April 2026
1 May 2026: Commodities rally broadens in April as Middle East disruption tightens global supply chains
30 April 2026: Gold rises with oil as geopolitical risk overwhelms rate headwinds
29 April 2026: Crude rally extends as Strait disruption continues OPECs role tested after UAE exit
28 April 2026: Precious metals face near-term pressure from oil-driven inflation
27 April 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 21 April 2026
24 April 2026: Commodities weekly From fuel shortages to food risks as Hormuz remains shut
22 April 2026: Severe supply disruption meets rising demand destruction as Hormuz closure persists
20 April 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 14 April 2026
14 April 2026: Precious metals rebuild as macro tailwinds return but gold awaits breakout confirmation
13 April 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to April 7 2026
10 April 2026: Commodities weekly Energy slumps but physical oil stress keeps the market on edge
9 April 2026: Crude rebounds toward USD 100 as Hormuz bottlenecks keep physical market tight
8 April 2026: Gold correction meets macro reset as ceasefire reverses key headwinds
7 April 2026: Europe's gas market shifts from stress to relief but the real test still lies ahead
7 April 2026: WTI above Brent a curve distortion not a benchmark inversion
7 April 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 31 March 2026
1 April 2026: Commodities monthly Energy surge and second-round effects dominate as metals correct

Educational resources:
A short guide to trading crude oil
The basics of trading wheat online
A short guide to trading gold
A short guide to trading copper
A short guide to trading silver
Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?

Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

More from the author
Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on Twitter and BlueSky social media platforms

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Commodities COT Commodities Crude Oil Natural Gas Gold Silver Copper Platinum Corn Sugar Coffee Gasoline Palladium Wheat Cocoa Cotton Cattle Energy (Sector) Forex COT FX EURUSD USDJPY AUDUSD USDCAD USDCHF GBPUSD NZDUSD Forex Trump Version 2 - Traders CZ ESMA disclaimer

CrowdStrike and Palo Alto earnings: the next AI stress test

Mon, 01 Jun 2026 08:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

CrowdStrike and Palo Alto enter earnings with high expectations and strong recent share-price momentum.
Artificial intelligence is raising both cyber risks and demand for better digital defences.
Key areas to monitor include customer growth, contract demand, margins and how each company describes the role of artificial intelligence in cybersecurity.

Cybersecurity used to be a digital lock on the office door. Now the building has more doors, more windows, more delivery robots, and one intern using artificial intelligence (AI) to write code at midnight.

That is why this week matters. Palo Alto Networks reports fiscal third-quarter 2026 results after the US market close on 2 June 2026. CrowdStrike reports fiscal first-quarter 2027 results after the US market close on 3 June 2026.

Both companies sit at the centre of a simple but powerful investment question: does AI make cybersecurity software less valuable, or more important?

The market has recently leaned towards “more important”. Both CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks have seen strong investor interest ahead of results, helped by the view that AI could expand the need for better digital defences.

Two different ways to guard the same castle

CrowdStrike protects computers, cloud systems and employee identities through its Falcon platform. In plain English, it helps companies spot suspicious activity early and stop attacks before they spread. That matters in a world where one weak laptop, cloud account or password can become the front door for a much bigger problem.

For the quarter ending 30 April 2026, CrowdStrike guided for revenue of about 1.36 billion USD and annual recurring revenue of around 5.50 billion USD. Annual recurring revenue is the subscription income a company expects to repeat each year. For investors, it shows whether customers are staying, spending more and treating the product as essential digital plumbing.

The key question is whether CrowdStrike can keep turning its customer base into broader platform demand. It has largely rebuilt investor confidence after the 2024 software update incident that disrupted millions of Windows devices. Earnings will test whether customers keep expanding Falcon across more of their security budgets.

Palo Alto Networks is broader. It sells security across networks, cloud systems, security operations, identity and artificial intelligence. Its strategy is called “platformisation”, meaning customers buy more tools from one provider instead of stitching together many separate products.

Palo Alto guided for fiscal third-quarter revenue of about 2.95 billion USD, up around 29% from a year earlier, and remaining performance obligation of nearly 18 billion USD. That is contracted future revenue not yet booked. The strategic question is whether Palo Alto can become a trusted one-stop security platform without becoming too complex.

Project Glasswing changes the conversation

The bigger story is not just earnings. It is Project Glasswing.

On 8 April 2026, Anthropic announced Project Glasswing, an initiative involving major technology and cybersecurity companies, including CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks. The goal is to use advanced AI to find and fix weaknesses in critical software before attackers exploit them.

That matters because AI changes both sides of the cybersecurity equation. Attackers may use AI to scan code faster, find weaknesses and automate phishing messages that look more convincing. Defenders can use AI to detect strange behaviour, write safer code and respond faster.

This is why cybersecurity is different from some other software categories. In areas like traditional software as a service, AI may reduce the need for some human users and pressure seat-based pricing. In cybersecurity, AI may increase the workload. More digital activity means more places to defend. More automated code means more possible bugs. More AI agents inside companies means new security rules, new monitoring needs and new budget lines.

For investors, the question is not whether cyberattacks disappear. They will not. The question is which companies can turn a more complex threat environment into durable demand without letting costs run ahead of growth.

What the market wants to hear

The market reaction will likely depend on four signals.

First, investors will watch growth quality. Revenue growth is helpful, but subscription demand, customer retention and larger customer deals matter more for long-term confidence.

Second, margins matter. Cybersecurity companies must keep investing in AI, cloud infrastructure and sales teams. If growth stays strong but profitability weakens, investors may become less forgiving.

Third, guidance matters more than the quarter just reported. Markets care about the next hill, not only the one just climbed.

Fourth, management language around AI will be important. Investors want evidence that AI is not just a slide in a presentation, but something customers are buying, using and renewing.

Recent sector volatility adds pressure. Zscaler’s weaker outlook in late May 2026 hit sentiment across cybersecurity, even though analysts debated whether the issue was company-specific or sector-wide. That is the market’s usual subtlety: one company coughs, and the whole sector gets offered a blanket.

Risks to keep in view

The first risk is valuation. Both stocks already reflect high expectations. When shares run hard into results, even good numbers can disappoint if guidance is not strong enough.

The second risk is competition. Microsoft, cloud providers and start-ups are all pushing into security. Customers want fewer tools, but that does not guarantee the same winners forever.

The third risk is execution. CrowdStrike must keep proving reliability after the 2024 outage. Palo Alto must show that platformisation and acquisitions can improve the customer offer without creating complexity. Early warning signs include weaker customer growth, slower contract expansion, rising sales costs and softer renewal trends.

Investor playbook

Watch guidance first. A strong past quarter matters less than confidence in the next few quarters.
Track annual recurring revenue and remaining performance obligation as signals of future demand.
Compare growth with margins. Fast growth is better when it does not require ever-higher spending.
Keep position size in mind. Cybersecurity is structural, but high expectations can make stocks jumpy.

The lock is no longer enough

Cybersecurity remains one of the clearest long-term digital themes because companies cannot simply opt out of being protected. Banks, hospitals, factories, retailers and governments all run on software. That software now faces a smarter threat environment, partly because AI gives both attackers and defenders sharper tools.

CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks enter earnings week as two leading names in that fight, but also as stocks carrying high expectations. For investors, the lesson is balanced: cybersecurity demand looks structural, but price still matters. The door needs a lock, the windows need sensors, and the portfolio still needs discipline.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The author does not hold any position in the financial instruments mentioned at the time of publication

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles UKMustRead Quarterly earnings Theme - Cyber security

London Quick Take - 1 June - Oil up and stocks mixed as US-Iran re-escalate

Mon, 01 Jun 2026 06:47:00 Z

Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.

European stock markets opened mixed and oil rose as the US and Iran exchanged strikes, cooling hopes for an imminent lasting peace deal. The US said they launched “self-defence strikes” on Iranian military sites while the IRGC said they targeted a US airbase. Meanwhile, Iran’s president Masoud Pezeshkian reportedly submitted his resignation, saying the IRGC have taken control and sidelined him and his administration. In a Truth Social post early on Monday President Trump said Tehran “really wanted to make a deal” and suggested critics “just sit back and relax". Brent crude futures rose around 3% to touch on $94, up from just short of $92 on Friday’s close. Anything under $100 is pricing a good outcome. It’s been 54 days since the ceasefire and it feels like a deal is close at hand.

Whilst European equity markets were subdued early Monday Asian markets continued to rally with South Korea’s Kospi up nearly 4% and the Nikkei 225 in Japan rising to a fresh record high above 67,000. Much of this was down to SoftBank, which surpassed Toyota as Japan’s most valuable company after it announced it would invest up to €75bn to build Europe’s biggest AI facility in France. Meanwhile Nvidia has gathered headlines again after announcing a new ARM-based chip for Microsoft, Dell and HP laptops. The RTX Spark is "a new superchip” for personal computing, according to CEO Jensen Huang. So, it’s the usual picture of AI vs geopolitics but I guess the main point is still that the extreme left tail risk has been cut off in terms of the Middle East.

On the economic front, two big releases this week in the shape of the US manufacturing ISM PMI today and Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday. These are expected to cool to +89k from +115k in April while the unemployment rate is seen steady at 4.3%. Before this we have a raft of labour market data - JOLTS (Tue), ADP private payrolls (Wed), Challenger layoffs (Thu). Treasury yields are firmer and the dollar holding up while gold is down with oil higher. Yields are however lower than they were at the start of last week as oil backed off on Iran deal hopes. Inflation expectations have cooled.

The S&P 500 managed yet another record high on Friday, closing at 7,580, 11% above its 200-day moving average. US markets remain on solid ground from earnings momentum. The Nasdaq rose more than 8% in May, while the S&P 500 rallied around 5% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed almost 3%. Earnings season has been one of the strongest in years with 85% of S&P 500 companies beating expectations. Per FactSet, companies are on aggregate surpassing profit forecasts by +16.7% against +7.3% average of the last 5 years. With the gains seen recently and earnings optimism baked into stock prices we may see some flows-based pullbacks this month.

Neil Wilson

Investor Content Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities United Kingdom Highlighted articles UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer FR US Actualites et Analyses Trump Version 2 - Investors Volatility investor TagFeed En hurtig tanke

Market Quick Take - 1 June 2026

Mon, 01 Jun 2026 06:41:00 Z

Market Quick Take – 1 June 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

Equities: US and Europe climbed on AI and peace hopes, while Asia extended the chip-led rally despite firmer oil.
Volatility: VIX subdued, payrolls week, ECB and US data in focus
Digital Assets: Bitcoin and Ethereum softer, CME launches 24/7 crypto trading, constructive crypto-equity flow
Fixed Income: US treasury yield rebound slightly from Friday’s local lows.
Currencies: The US dollar pulls back after unconvincing sell-off Friday. JPY weak after scale of recent intervention revealed.
Commodities: Oil rebound from six week low, gold dips and copper gains ahead of US tariff deadline
Macro events: US May ISM Manufacturing

Macro headlines

The US trade deficit narrowed in April as record exports of oil and petroleum helped offset a continued surge in imports of capital goods key to the AI boom. The shortfall fell to USD 82.4 billion with exports rising 4% and imports up 1.9%. In April, the US exported a record volume of more than 6.4 million barrels a day, according to US Energy Information Administration data, while shipments of fuels including gasoline, diesel and jet also surged.
Oil climbed from a six-week low amid uncertainty over US-Iran peace deal possibilities, with both seeking changes over the weekend to a draft agreement that would extend the ceasefire and open the Strait of Hormuz. Israel, meanwhile, increased its ground assault in Lebanon as Hezbollah stepped up attacks in Northern Israel. Trump said his proposed deal states clearly that Iran will not have nuclear weapons and Iran shall fully restore free passage of the strait.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

· 0600 – UK May Nationwide House Price
· 1400 – US May ISM Manufacturing
· 1400 – US April Construction Spending
Fed speakers: Schmid (1050), Bowman (1310), Paulson (1315), Daly (1640)

Earnings events

Today: Hewlett Packard Enterprise
Tuesday: Palo Alto Networks, Dollar General, Ulta Beauty
Wednesday: Broadcom, Inditex, CrowdStrike, Medtronic, Veeva Systems
Thursday: Ciena, Lululemon Athletica

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.2%, the Nasdaq Composite added 0.2%, and the Dow Jones gained 0.7%, with all three closing at record highs. Tech led after Dell jumped 32.8% on stronger AI server demand and a higher full-year outlook, while Hewlett Packard Enterprise rose 8.1% and Super Micro Computer gained 11.6% in sympathy. Microsoft added 5.4% as large software names recovered, but Costco fell 3.9% after earnings missed expectations despite solid sales. Investors now watch whether AI spending can keep doing the heavy lifting without pulling a financial hamstring.
Europe: The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.1%, Germany’s DAX added 0.1%, France’s CAC 40 slipped 0.1%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 fell 0.2%, leaving Europe broadly flat but positive for May. Sentiment improved on hopes for a US-Iran ceasefire extension and lower oil pressure, while inflation stayed uncomfortably above the European Central Bank’s target. CTS Eventim surged 10.7% after strong first-quarter revenue growth, Lufthansa and Air France rose more than 2% as lower oil helped airlines, while Orkla fell 5.3% after a UBS downgrade. Markets now turn to eurozone data and central-bank signals.
Asia: Asian equities rose on Monday, with the Nikkei 225 up 0.7%, the Hang Seng up 0.9%, and the Shanghai Composite up 0.2% in the latest session. The main driver was still artificial intelligence, with South Korea’s export data showing a sharp chip-led rebound and investors looking ahead to Nvidia’s Computex-related meetings. Samsung Electronics jumped 9.5% after high-bandwidth memory progress and hopes of closer Nvidia ties, while LG Electronics surged 28% on potential AI and robotics cooperation. SoftBank rose 10.3% as AI optimism lifted Japan’s tech complex, though higher oil kept the macro backdrop politely annoying.

Volatility

Volatility remains remarkably subdued despite a week packed with market-moving events. The VIX closed Friday at 15.32, down 2.7% on the session, while shorter-term gauges remain even lower, with VIX1D at 12.44 and VIX9D at 12.59, suggesting investors are entering the week with a relatively calm outlook. That could quickly change as markets digest today's ISM Manufacturing PMI, Tuesday's JOLTS job openings report, Wednesday's ADP employment data and ISM Services survey, Thursday's jobless claims, and Friday's closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls report. In Europe, Tuesday's inflation data and Thursday's ECB meeting could also influence sentiment.
SPX options are currently pricing an expected move of approximately 88.7 points, or 1.17%, by Friday's close, highlighting that investors expect movement but not turmoil. Options positioning continues to reflect a cautious backdrop, with sizeable hedging activity in SPX, SPY and QQQ observed on Friday alongside selective upside exposure in technology leaders such as Microsoft, Nvidia and Apple.
Today's skew indicator shows a mild downside bias, with investors still paying slightly more for downside protection than upside participation, reflecting prudence rather than outright concern.

Digital Assets

Digital assets start the new month on a softer note, with Bitcoin trading near $73,200, Ethereum around $1,990, Solana near $81.5, and XRP around $1.31. Most major cryptocurrencies are modestly lower following a weak finish to May, as investors continue to assess slowing ETF demand and a less supportive flow backdrop. Recent data showed net outflows from both US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, including withdrawals from IBIT and ETHA, suggesting institutional investors remain selective despite strength across broader equity markets.
Beneath the surface, however, the long-term adoption story continues to advance. Over the weekend, CME Group launched 24/7 trading for its crypto futures and options suite, bringing regulated crypto derivatives closer to the around-the-clock nature of digital asset markets. Meanwhile, options activity in crypto-linked equities remained constructive on Friday, led by large bullish call buying in MicroStrategy (MSTR) and additional upside positioning in names such as Coinbase (COIN) and IREN. While near-term price action remains cautious, institutional participation continues to grow through regulated products and selected crypto-related equities.

Commodities

Oil rebounded from a six-week low amid ongoing uncertainty over the prospects for a peace deal to end the war with Iran. However, the recovery in Brent to USD 93 and WTI to USD 90 has remained relatively modest as traders continue to price in the likelihood that any agreement could trigger a near-term surge in supply from vessels currently stranded inside the Persian Gulf. By now, it is also clear that several key release valves have helped prevent an even larger price spike. These include a sharp increase in US oil exports, a slump in Chinese crude imports, the use of UAE and Saudi Arabian pipeline infrastructure that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, strategic petroleum reserve releases, and weaker end-user demand through a combination of demand destruction and use of domestic stockpiles.
Gold trades lower following last week’s rebound from key support as oil prices recovered and progress in US-Iran peace talks remained slow. The price action highlights the market's ongoing struggle to balance the inflationary implications of elevated energy prices - which tend to support the dollar and bond yields - against longer-term bullish drivers such as de-dollarisation, fiscal debt concerns, and persistent central bank demand. For now, gold appears trapped between two key technical levels, with the 200-day moving average at USD 4,406 providing support and the 50-day moving average at USD 4,629 acting as resistance.
Copper, one of the best performing commodities in the last month trades higher with the premium in New York rising above USD 500 per tons with traders once again pushing metal to the US ahead of June 30 deadline that should deliver more clarity on the Trump’s administration’s plans for import tariffs.

Fixed Income

US Treasuries sold off early Monday on a bounceback in crude oil prices after yields had settled at local lows on Friday. The benchmark 2-year treasury yield rose over two basis points to nearly 4.03%, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose three basis points to 4.465%. Important US economic data set for release this week include the May ISM Manufacturing survey today, the May ISM Services survey on Wednesday and the May US jobs data on Friday.
Japan’s government bond yields rose at the front end of the curve after it emerged late Friday that Japan’s Ministry of Finance had mobilized JPY 11.73 trillion (about USD 74 billion) to intervene in support of the Japanese yen. As well, a former BoJ member said Friday that the BoJ would likely hike the policy rate at the mid-June BoJ meeting. The benchmark 2-year JGB yield gapped higher three basis points to 1.40% while at the longer end of the curve the benchmark 30-year JGB was up less than a basis point to 3.94%.

Currencies

The US dollar edged higher in early trading Monday after USD bears pushed it to unconvincing local lows in places on Friday. EURUSD, for example, rose above local resistance Friday at 1.1661 and posted a 1.1686 high, only to settle near that breakout point and then edge lower in early trading Monday to 1.1650.
The JPY traded weaker to start the week, likely on the combination of higher crude oil prices but especially the details emerging Friday of the magnitude of intervention to stem JPY weakness carried out by Japan’s Ministry of Finance recently. Having thrown near JPY 12 trillion (about USD 74 billion) into the market with little effect, the market may wonder how willing the Takaichi government is to continue pursuing this approach.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Advanced orders Europe Employment United States United Kingdom European Union (EU) XAUUSD USD EURUSD USDJPY Energy (Sector) Technology S P 500 index Quick Take Weekly Newsletter

Commodities weekly: Energy retreat masks deeper supply concerns as metals shine

Fri, 29 May 2026 12:30:00 Z

Key points:

The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index (BCOM TR) is heading for its first monthly decline in five months, driven primarily by an unwinding of the Middle East war premium in energy.
Industrial metals bucked the broader weakness, led by copper and zinc, as tariff-related disruptions and structural demand trends continued to underpin prices.
Agriculture softened amid improving weather conditions, harvest pressure and lower energy prices, weighing on grains, softs and livestock, while El Nino risks continue to rise.
Gold successfully defended major technical support while remaining caught between easing energy-driven inflation concerns and a still-supportive long-term macro backdrop.

The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index is heading for a monthly loss of around 3%, trimming its year-to-date gain to 26%. The setback marks the first monthly decline since December but does little to alter the broader picture of commodities remaining one of the strongest-performing asset classes in 2026.

May was a month of contrasts. While investors continued pouring money into technology and AI-related equities, helping push major stock indices towards fresh highs, commodity markets spent much of the month reassessing the outlook for supply disruptions stemming from the three-month conflict in the Middle East. So, while equities focused on the productivity gains and investment opportunities associated with artificial intelligence, commodities focused on whether the largest supply shock in years may finally begin to ease.

Commodities total returns - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Macroeconomic signals also remained mixed. US first-quarter GDP growth was revised lower to 1.6%, reflecting weaker consumer spending. Meanwhile, April PCE inflation accelerated to 3.8% year-on-year, the highest reading since May 2023, highlighting that inflationary pressures remain elevated despite slower growth. The combination of softer growth and higher inflation continues to reinforce concerns that the global economy may be entering a period where growth becomes increasingly constrained by the rising cost of energy, commodities and infrastructure investment required to support electrification, AI data centres and climate adaptation.

Energy falls as ceasefire hopes gain momentum

The biggest driver behind the monthly decline in the commodity complex was energy reflected in the BCOM Energy TR Index heading for a loss of around 8%, with Brent crude, WTI crude, diesel and gasoline all suffering double-digit declines. The move follows growing optimism that the United States and Iran may be able to extend their ceasefire agreement, potentially creating the framework for a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. While significant hurdles remain, the market is reacting to the prospect of a supply surge once hundreds of tankers loaded with crude oil and refined fuels are released from the Persian Gulf.

Following the record 43% monthly surge back in March, Brent crude is heading for its largest monthly decline since April last year with prices falling towards a five-week low, yet still higher by around 29% since Operation Epic Fury began three months ago, while refined products such as diesel and gasoline have also retraced a significant part of their wartime gains.

The market is increasingly looking beyond current disruptions and focusing instead on what a reopening could mean for supply. Hundreds of tankers loaded with crude oil and refined fuels remain stranded or delayed across the Persian Gulf region, creating expectations that a successful agreement could trigger a substantial release of supply.

However, markets may be underestimating the time required to restore normal conditions. While a ceasefire may reopen shipping lanes, it does not immediately replenish inventories, restore damaged infrastructure or normalise trade flows. ADNOC's chief executive recently said it would take at least four months to return to 80% of pre-conflict flows, with full recovery potentially not arriving until the second quarter of 2027. Global inventories have been drawn down aggressively, while shipping routes, refinery operations and supply chains remain disrupted.

The world has also relied on several shock absorbers to prevent a much larger energy crisis. These include record US crude exports, strategic petroleum reserve releases, increased pipeline exports from Saudi Arabia and the UAE that bypass Hormuz, reduced Chinese imports and some demand destruction driven by elevated prices. As these buffers diminish, several industry participants continue to warn that underlying market tightness remains significant. While the geopolitical risk premium may be fading, the structural supply deficit that emerged during the conflict has not disappeared.

For that reason, the eventual floor under oil prices may settle well above pre-conflict levels. While front-month Brent futures traded sharply lower this week, the average price for 2027 held steady near USD 80, around 17% above the pre-war level, highlighting a market pricing in higher-for-longer oil prices.

Brent crude prices - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Natural gas provided the main exception within energy. US natural gas rebounded around 14% during the month, supported by a smaller-than-expected stockpile build amid rising export demand. Nevertheless, it remains one of the weakest performers on a total return basis this year, down around 4%, illustrating how curve structure and rolling costs can significantly influence investor returns.

Backwardation boosts returns beyond the headline price move

The past three months have reminded investors that commodity returns are driven by more than changes in spot or front-month futures prices. The shape of the futures curve can materially affect performance through roll yield. This was evident during the energy market rally following Operation Epic Fury. As supply concerns intensified, crude oil and especially diesel futures curves moved into steep backwardation, where nearby contracts trade above deferred deliveries. For long only investors, this generates positive roll yield as positions are rolled into cheaper forward contracts.

The effect was most pronounced in distillate fuels. While front-month ULSD diesel futures rose around 34% from pre-war levels, the total return reached approximately 54%. London gas oil delivered a similar outcome, returning around 64% versus a gain of roughly 34% in the underlying futures contract.

Crude oil investors also benefited. Brent crude rose around 25%, but the total return reached approximately 44% as investors repeatedly rolled into lower-priced deferred contracts. Overall, the BCOM Energy Total Return Index has gained around 39% during the conflict, roughly ten percentage points more than implied by futures price movements alone.

Natural gas provided a stark contrast. Although front-month prices rose around 16.5%, a persistently contangoed market generated negative roll yield and left total returns close to flat.

The lesson is clear: in commodities, price direction is only part of the story. During periods of supply tightness, backwardation can significantly boost returns, while contango can erode them in oversupplied markets.

Futures and total returns across energy - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Copper leads industrial metals higher

While energy retreated, industrial metals enjoyed another strong month. The BCOM Industrial Metals Index gained around 6%, led by copper, zinc and aluminium. Copper remains the standout performer. COMEX copper is once again trading at a rising premium to London, echoing last year's market dislocation as traders continue moving metal into the United States amid renewed speculation about future import tariffs.

The result has been a surge in COMEX-monitored inventories while simultaneously tightening availability elsewhere. Rather than signalling weak demand, rising US inventories currently reflect a geographical reshuffling of supply. Attention is increasingly focused on the June 30 deadline for the US Commerce Secretary's review of the domestic copper market. The findings could ultimately pave the way for import duties beginning in January 2027.

Beyond tariffs, copper continues to benefit from a powerful long-term demand story: Electric vehicles, power grids, renewable energy installations, battery storage, cooling infrastructure and AI data centres all require substantial amounts of copper. At the same time, miners continue to struggle with declining ore grades, permitting challenges, geopolitical risks and rising capital costs. These constraints remain central to the longer-term bull case.

Aluminium also performed well as markets assessed the potential impact of ongoing disruptions to Gulf exports. While crude oil often dominates headlines, the conflict has affected a wide range of industrial commodities, including aluminium, fertilizers, petrochemicals and sulphur-related products essential for mining and manufacturing.

Gold survives another test

Precious metals endured another challenging month, although conditions improved towards month-end. Gold briefly came under renewed pressure before traders focused on lower oil prices, easing inflation concerns and reduced geopolitical risk. For a second time during the conflict, gold found support at its 200-day moving average, a level it has not closed below since October 2023.

Currently the level is around USD 4,400, and from a tactical perspective gold remains trapped within a narrowing range, with a break above USD 4,575 and ultimately the 50-day moving average near USD 4,628 needed to improve the outlook.

Gold's recent performance has been closely linked to developments in the energy market. Rising oil prices fuel inflation concerns, push bond yields and the dollar higher and create short-term headwinds for bullion. Conversely, falling oil prices help ease inflation expectations and support gold through lower yields and a weaker dollar.

While this relationship has dominated trading for much of the past three months, we maintain the view that gold remains a strategic allocation rather than a tactical trade. In a world defined by central bank diversification away from the dollar, rising fiscal debt burdens, geopolitical uncertainty and long-term inflation risks associated with commodity supply constraints, we continue in our opinion to see support for the investment case for gold.

Silver outperformed gold during May, reflecting both its monetary characteristics and its growing importance as an industrial metal. Demand linked to solar energy, electrification and advanced manufacturing continues to provide support despite periodic concerns about global growth.

Spot gold trapped within a narrowing range - Source: Saxo

Agriculture loses momentum

Agriculture was another source of weakness during May, with the Bloomberg Agriculture Index heading for a modest decline, led by losses in wheat, corn, sugar, coffee and livestock, and only partly offset by gains in soybean products and cocoa. Improving weather conditions, incoming harvest pressure and lower energy prices all contributed to softer prices.

Wheat prices retreated as concerns about drought in several major producing regions eased and harvest prospects improved. Corn also weakened as rainfall improved soil moisture across parts of the US Midwest, supporting crop development. Lower crude oil prices added pressure by reducing some of the inflationary concerns that had previously supported agricultural markets.

Sugar prices softened as improving production prospects in Brazil and lower energy prices reduced support from the biofuel sector. Coffee also struggled, while cocoa remained one of the month's strongest performers despite continuing to trade sharply lower on a year-to-date basis following its collapse from record highs.

El Niño risk moves onto the horizon

While improving weather conditions have recently weighed on agricultural prices, markets are increasingly monitoring the potential return of El Niño during the second half of 2026, raising the risk of another year of extreme weather and potentially record global temperatures in 2027.

The World Meteorological Organization recently warned that a developing El Niño could contribute to record global temperatures in 2027, increasing the risk of droughts, heatwaves, floods and other extreme weather events. Historically, El Niño has disrupted production of several key crops, including wheat, sugar, coffee, cocoa and palm oil, often leading to higher prices and increased volatility.

After several years of increasingly frequent weather disruptions, markets are likely to pay close attention to the development of El Niño in the months ahead. If forecasts of a stronger event prove correct, climate risk may once again become an important driver of agricultural prices, food inflation and commodity market volatility during 2027.

An El Nino weather event developing at a rapid pace - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

Looking ahead

The key question for June is whether markets have become too optimistic about the speed with which the global supply system can normalise. The sharp decline in energy prices reflects growing confidence that diplomacy may eventually restore flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Yet inventories remain depleted, supply chains remain stretched and many of the world's energy shock absorbers have already been heavily utilised.

At the same time, industrial metals continue to benefit from a combination of tariff-related disruptions and structural demand growth linked to electrification, energy security and artificial intelligence. The result is a commodity market entering a new phase. The acute panic surrounding Middle East supply disruptions may be fading, but the longer-term challenges associated with securing sufficient energy, metals and raw materials to support future economic growth remain firmly intact.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

Related articles/content
19 May 2026: Gold Near-term headwinds meet longer-term structural support 18 May 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 12 May 2026 13 May 2026: Grains surge as USDA wheat shock meets biofuel-driven soy demand 12 May 2026: Silver breaks higher as investors rediscover its dual appeal 11 May 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 5 May 2026 8 May 2026: Gold holds firm as central banks and investors look beyond price 3 May 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 28 April 2026 1 May 2026: Commodities rally broadens in April as Middle East disruption tightens global supply chains 30 April 2026: Gold rises with oil as geopolitical risk overwhelms rate headwinds 29 April 2026: Crude rally extends as Strait disruption continues OPECs role tested after UAE exit 28 April 2026: Precious metals face near-term pressure from oil-driven inflation 27 April 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 21 April 2026 24 April 2026: Commodities weekly From fuel shortages to food risks as Hormuz remains shut 22 April 2026: Severe supply disruption meets rising demand destruction as Hormuz closure persists 20 April 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 14 April 2026 14 April 2026: Precious metals rebuild as macro tailwinds return but gold awaits breakout confirmation 13 April 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to April 7 2026 10 April 2026: Commodities weekly Energy slumps but physical oil stress keeps the market on edge 9 April 2026: Crude rebounds toward USD 100 as Hormuz bottlenecks keep physical market tight 8 April 2026: Gold correction meets macro reset as ceasefire reverses key headwinds 7 April 2026: Europe's gas market shifts from stress to relief but the real test still lies ahead 7 April 2026: WTI above Brent a curve distortion not a benchmark inversion 7 April 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 31 March 2026 1 April 2026: Commodities monthly Energy surge and second-round effects dominate as metals correct Educational resources: A short guide to trading crude oil The basics of trading wheat online A short guide to trading gold A short guide to trading copper A short guide to trading silver Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment? Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

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19 May 2026: Gold Near-term headwinds meet longer-term structural support
18 May 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 12 May 2026
13 May 2026: Grains surge as USDA wheat shock meets biofuel-driven soy demand
12 May 2026: Silver breaks higher as investors rediscover its dual appeal
11 May 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 5 May 2026
8 May 2026: Gold holds firm as central banks and investors look beyond price
3 May 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 28 April 2026
1 May 2026: Commodities rally broadens in April as Middle East disruption tightens global supply chains
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29 April 2026: Crude rally extends as Strait disruption continues OPECs role tested after UAE exit
28 April 2026: Precious metals face near-term pressure from oil-driven inflation
27 April 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 21 April 2026
24 April 2026: Commodities weekly From fuel shortages to food risks as Hormuz remains shut
22 April 2026: Severe supply disruption meets rising demand destruction as Hormuz closure persists
20 April 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 14 April 2026
14 April 2026: Precious metals rebuild as macro tailwinds return but gold awaits breakout confirmation
13 April 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to April 7 2026
10 April 2026: Commodities weekly Energy slumps but physical oil stress keeps the market on edge
9 April 2026: Crude rebounds toward USD 100 as Hormuz bottlenecks keep physical market tight
8 April 2026: Gold correction meets macro reset as ceasefire reverses key headwinds
7 April 2026: Europe's gas market shifts from stress to relief but the real test still lies ahead
7 April 2026: WTI above Brent a curve distortion not a benchmark inversion
7 April 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 31 March 2026
1 April 2026: Commodities monthly Energy surge and second-round effects dominate as metals correct

Educational resources:
A short guide to trading crude oil
The basics of trading wheat online
A short guide to trading gold
A short guide to trading copper
A short guide to trading silver
Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?

Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here

More from the author
Ole S Hansen's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on Twitter and BlueSky social media platforms

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Saxo Bank

Topics: Commodities Iran USA Inflation Crude Oil Oil Agriculture Gold Copper Cocoa

Options Brief - Snowflake and AI lift records - 29 May 2026

Fri, 29 May 2026 10:30:00 Z

The S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high on Thursday, and it happened despite April PCE hitting 3.8% - the highest reading since May 2023. AI earnings did the heavy lifting: Snowflake surged 36% on a $6 billion Amazon partnership, with Microsoft, Oracle and Palantir all joining the rally.

Options Brief – Snowflake and AI lift records – 29 May 2026

The S&P 500 reached a new all-time high despite April PCE at a three-year high, as AI earnings momentum continues to outweigh macro concerns.

Headline driver

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 closed at fresh all-time highs on Thursday, led by an AI software breakout after Snowflake surged 36% on a $6 billion Amazon Web Services partnership and a strong earnings beat, with Microsoft, Oracle, and Palantir adding 3–4% in sympathy. Markets absorbed April PCE data showing headline inflation at 3.8% year-on-year, the highest reading since May 2023, and kept climbing, confirming that the current rally is driven by earnings and AI spending momentum rather than macro sensitivity.

Market snapshot

The S&P 500 closed at 7,563.63, up 0.58%, marking a new all-time high. The Nasdaq 100 gained 0.84% to 30,223.89. The Russell 2000 added 0.57% to 2,936.57, while the Dow Jones edged 0.05% higher to 50,674.06. Gold futures settled near $4,541 per ounce. The 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.459%, essentially unmoved by the PCE print.

Market regime: Low vol bull – VIX 15.80, 20-day realised vol 10.2% (stable), S&P 500 +7.45% above its 50-day moving average.

Options flow sentiment

Based on end-of-day 28 May 2026 – yesterday’s positioning, not today’s price action.

Single-name flow leaned bullish, with the call side dominant in large-cap technology names and the resulting market-maker hedging profile tilted to add incremental buying pressure on any intraday move higher.

In the index and ETF book, put-side activity outweighed calls, consistent with a broad portfolio protection posture rather than fresh downside conviction; institutions appear to be hedging a long book, not exiting it.

Options angle

VIX closed at 15.80 on Thursday, essentially flat on the session, with the low vol bull regime intact heading into Friday. With 20-day realised vol at 10.2%, implied vol is running at roughly 1.5x what the market has actually delivered over the past month. That gap has been the dominant feature of this regime: options are consistently priced for more movement than arrives.

Strategy insight – Iron condor in a slow-grinding, low-realised-vol environment. When implied vol runs persistently above realised vol and the index is trending higher with shallow pullbacks, an iron condor collects premium on both sides within a defined-risk structure: short an out-of-the-money call spread and short an out-of-the-money put spread simultaneously, keeping the net credit if the underlying stays between the two short strikes at expiry. The appeal here is that the underlying would need to move significantly more than it has been realising just to reach the short strikes, providing a meaningful buffer without requiring a precise pin. The maximum loss is the difference between the spread widths minus the credit received, and is capped on both sides.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.

Strategy insight – Covered call overlay after a sharp earnings-driven move. When a stock surges on strong earnings and forward guidance, near-term implied vol in that name often stays elevated for several sessions as the market digests the move. An investor already holding the position can sell an out-of-the-money call against it to collect that elevated premium as income while the stock consolidates. If the stock stays below the strike, the call expires worthless and the premium is kept in full. If it continues higher and is called away, the investor exits at a price above where the call was sold. The risk is that a continued sharp rally above the strike caps the upside, and the premium collected may not compensate fully for the forgone gain.

Conclusion

Thursday confirmed the market’s current disposition: resilient enough to shrug off the hottest PCE print in three years and rally into new territory on AI earnings momentum. Heading into Friday, the low vol bull regime holds, realised vol is running well below implied, and the setup remains structurally favourable for premium sellers. One flag worth keeping in mind: the institutional put demand in yesterday’s index book was not panic flow, but it was broad and persistent, a reminder that the people managing the largest books are not abandoning downside coverage at all-time highs.

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More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

London Quick Take - Friday - UK Markets steady as FTSE rises; Dell surges over 30% on earnings beat

Fri, 29 May 2026 10:27:00 Z

Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.

UK

FTSE 100

The FTSE 100 is slightly higher today up +0.25% at the time of writing, supported by cautious optimism after reports of a tentative US–Iran agreement to extend a 60‑day ceasefire, which could see the Strait of Hormuz remain “unrestricted”. The deal has yet to be approved by President Trump.

Although the index has recorded consistent monthly gains since last July, it has still not fully recovered from the Iran-related selloff, unlike other major global indices it is still 4% below pre-war levels.

Meanwhile, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, speaking in Iceland, warned that persistent second-round inflation effects such as wage demands driven by higher living costs, could keep price pressures elevated.

Equities in Focus

Ocado shares surged 8.6% on a deal with Asda to add it to its network of online grocers. The agreement is expected to strengthen Asda’s online offering and intensify competition in the UK grocery market, though the increase is still 92% below its peak during the pandemic.

Separately, AstraZeneca gained slightly +0.7% as its drug Imfinzi received US approval for treating early-stage bladder cancer.

Gilts

Yields are falling across the curve today, supported by softer oil prices easing inflation concerns. Gilts are outperforming, with the 10‑year yields on track for its best month since February as expectations for further Bank of England tightening have scaled back. Short-dated bonds are leading the move, with two‑year yields set for their biggest monthly drop in over a year. However, despite the recent decline, yields remain elevated versus pre‑conflict levels.

Long‑dated gilt yields surged to their highest since 1998 in mid‑May, reaching 5.87% amid global market pressure and concerns that Keir Starmer’s potential successor could increase spending. They later eased as geopolitical tensions softened, UK data weakened, and frontrunner Andy Burnham pledged to adhere to the government’s existing borrowing limits, after previously suggesting they could be adjusted to allow for higher defence spending.

Sterling

Over the last month sterling is down around 1.4% against the dollar, as the dollar strengthens amid elevated oil prices denominated in dollars and ongoing Middle East uncertainty. The pound has underperformed most major currencies, weighed further by political concerns over Keir Starmer’s leadership, which could remain a key focus into June.

Andy Burnham is expected to run in a by‑election on the 18th of June that may position him to challenge Starmer, something that could potentially weaken the pound, as investors may worry about increases to the budget deficit. On the same day, the Bank of England will announce its latest interest rate decision. While a hold is expected, any signals of further rate hikes could provide support to sterling by making UK assets more attractive to investors.

US

Equities in Focus

Yesterday’s Earnings

Price	Company	EPS Estimate	EPS Actual	Summary
+34.6%	Dell	EPS $2.96	EPS $4.86	Strongly beat EPS expectations from Nvidia powered AI server revenue.
-0.8%	Costco	EPS $4.54	EPS $4.58	Beat EPS expectations on record gas sales and e-commerce.
+7.9%	Okta	EPS $0.85	EPS $0.91	Beat EPS expectations, with current remaining performance obligations growing 12% year-on-year.

Commodities

Oil

Oil prices have fallen, with Brent on track for its largest monthly drop since 2020, driven by optimism over a potential US–Iran ceasefire. Brent is down around 19% this month, although a 60‑day agreement has yet to be finalised and uncertainty remains over whether a deal will be reached.

Despite the volatility, any ceasefire may not materially change the underlying situation, as both sides hold entrenched positions that may be difficult to reconcile.

Gold

Gold is set for a third straight monthly decline, pressured by focus on a potential US–Iran ceasefire. The metal is down over 2% this month. It is heading for a third consecutive monthly loss, as the US‑Israeli conflict with Iran has fuelled inflation concerns and reinforced expectations of further US rate hikes.

Victoria Ramirez

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities United Kingdom Highlighted articles UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer FR US Actualites et Analyses Trump Version 2 - Investors Volatility investor TagFeed En hurtig tanke

The real reason Musk wants to go to Mars?

Fri, 29 May 2026 09:24:00 Z

No signs of Tesla HODL'ers selling to make way for SpaceX

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.

Questions and comments, please!

We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.

This content is marketing material and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.

The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

The SaaS earnings message: AI changes the rules, not the whole game

Fri, 29 May 2026 08:30:00 Z

Key takeaways

AI is boosting infrastructure and data platforms, but pressuring traditional software expectations.
Investors are rewarding clear usage growth and questioning seat-based software models.
The key test is not AI features, but whether customers pay more for them.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is starting to split the technology market into two camps. On one side are the companies selling the picks, shovels and data roads. On the other are software companies that must prove their old toll booths still work. The latest earnings round showed that split clearly.

The old software bargain is being tested

Software as a service (SaaS) has been one of the great business models of the past two decades. Companies paid regular subscriptions to use cloud-based tools, often priced by the number of employees, or “seats”. More employees meant more seats. More seats meant more revenue. Very civilised. Almost suspiciously so.

AI complicates that model. If an AI agent can perform work that used to require several users clicking through software screens, then pricing by seats may become less powerful. A customer may still need the software, but may not need to pay for as many human users in the same way. This is why our AI SaaS disruption list focuses on companies where AI could either strengthen the product or weaken the old seat-based pricing model.

Salesforce sits right at the centre of that debate. The company reported first-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue of 11.13 billion USD and adjusted earnings per share of 3.88 USD, both ahead of expectations, as compiled by Bloomberg. It also highlighted momentum in Agentforce, its AI agent platform. Yet its second-quarter revenue forecast was slightly below market expectations, and investors focused on the risk that AI could change traditional software demand.

The lesson is simple. Adding AI features is no longer enough. Investors want evidence that AI increases customer spending, improves retention and protects margins. In simple terms: does it make the product more valuable, or just more expensive to run?

Data platforms look like the new control room

Snowflake had a very different market reaction. Snowflake helps companies store, manage and analyse large amounts of data in the cloud. That matters because AI is only as useful as the data it can safely use. A very clever model with messy data is like a sports car with cooking oil in the engine.

Snowflake reported first-quarter revenue of 1.39 billion USD, up about 34% from a year earlier, and raised its full-year product revenue guidance. It also expanded its partnership with AWS through a five-year, 6 billion USD commitment. The market liked the combination: stronger growth, clearer AI demand and deeper access to cloud infrastructure.

Snowflake closed at 239.20 USD on 28 May 2026, up 36.4%. That move was large because it changed the narrative. Snowflake had been treated as a high-growth software company facing tougher scrutiny. The new results suggested it may also be a key data layer for enterprise AI.

That is an important distinction. Some software companies may be disrupted by AI. Others may become the plumbing that makes AI useful inside companies. Plumbing rarely sounds exciting, but investors have learned not to laugh at pipes.

Hardware is getting paid first

Dell shows the other side of the story. Dell is best known for personal computers, but its more important AI role today is in servers, storage and infrastructure. These are the physical systems companies need to train, run and deploy AI models.

Dell reported first-quarter revenue of 43.84 billion USD and raised its full-year revenue forecast to 165 billion USD to 169 billion USD. The company also now expects 60 billion USD of AI server revenue for fiscal 2027. Shares rose sharply after hours as investors reacted to the stronger AI server outlook.

This is why hardware and infrastructure have looked more straightforward than SaaS in the AI trade. Companies need computing power before they can redesign workflows. The bills arrive early. The productivity gains may arrive later, possibly with a calendar and a polite apology.

For investors, that creates a timing gap. Infrastructure companies can show demand now. Software companies must show that AI becomes a paid product, not just a feature customers expect for free.

Risks to watch

The biggest risk is overconfidence. AI infrastructure demand is strong, but server businesses can have lower margins and more cyclical demand than pure software. If customers pause spending, hardware earnings can slow quickly.

For SaaS, the risk is pricing pressure. If AI reduces the need for traditional user licences, companies must shift towards usage-based pricing, where customers pay based on activity or value delivered. That can work, but transitions are rarely neat. Investors should watch renewal rates, large customer growth, margins and whether AI products create real extra revenue.

A third risk is customer fatigue. Every company now says it has an AI strategy. Some do. Some have a chatbot wearing a small hat. The market will become less forgiving when AI claims do not show up in sales, cash flow or customer behaviour.

Investor playbook

Separate AI beneficiaries by layer: chips, servers, cloud, data, applications and services.
Watch whether AI revenue is new spending or just a renamed old product.
Compare share price moves with earnings quality, not only headline growth.
Keep position sizes sensible when expectations move faster than the business.

The useful question

The latest earnings round does not say that SaaS is broken. It says the easy version of the software story is over. In the old world, investors could often reward recurring revenue, high margins and steady customer growth. In the AI world, they must ask what the software actually does, how essential it is, and whether AI makes it stronger or easier to replace.

That is a healthier question. Dell shows that infrastructure is getting paid first. Snowflake shows that trusted data may become more valuable. Salesforce shows that even strong software leaders must keep proving the model. AI is not killing software. It is turning the lights on, and a few old business models may prefer the room slightly darker.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The author does not hold any position in the financial instruments mentioned at the time of publication

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles Theme - Defence UKMustRead

Micron before earnings: using a covered call after a strong rally

Fri, 29 May 2026 06:58:00 Z

Micron just had a sharp rally - and if you own 100 shares, you have a decision to make. Selling everything may feel too final. Holding without a plan may feel careless after such a large move. A covered call can sit right between those two choices ...

Micron before earnings: using a covered call after a strong rally

When shares have already moved sharply, a covered call can turn hesitation into a plan.

Key takeaways

Micron shares have rallied sharply, leaving long-term shareholders with a practical question: hold, take some profit, or generate income from the position.
Selling the 18 June 2026 USD 1,100 call brings in about USD 37.40 per share – roughly USD 3,740 per contract.
The USD 1,100 strike is well above the current share price of around USD 914.50, with the expiry set before Micron’s expected 24 June earnings date.
A covered call is not free money. The investor accepts capped upside, possible assignment, and continued downside exposure as a shareholder.

Micron’s recent rally has created a decision point for shareholders who may want to optimise yield without selling immediately. Source: SaxoTrader (snapshot 27 May 2026)

Why this setup may interest shareholders

A strong rally feels rewarding, but it can also make investors hesitate. Selling all shares may feel too final. Holding without a plan may feel careless after such a large move.

A covered call can sit between those choices. It lets the investor keep the shares for now, receive income upfront, and set a possible future sale price above the current market.

The key question is simple: would you be comfortable selling 100 Micron shares at USD 1,100 before earnings?

What is a covered call?

A covered call combines two parts: owning shares and selling a call option against those shares.

A call option gives the buyer the right to buy shares at a fixed price, called the strike price. When you sell the call, you receive a premium. In exchange, you may have to sell your shares at the strike price if the option is exercised.

The strategy is called “covered” because the investor already owns the shares that may need to be delivered. For US equity options, one standard contract usually covers 100 shares.

For a buy-and-hold investor, the simplest way to view a covered call is this: it is a planned sale price with income attached.

The Micron example

Using current option data, Micron is trading around USD 914.50. The investor owns 100 shares and sells one Micron call option with the following terms:

Expiry: 18 June 2026
Strike price: USD 1,100
Premium received: about USD 37.40 per share
Total premium: about USD 3,740 before costs and taxes

The USD 1,100 strike is well above the current share price. The investor is not selling today. They are agreeing to sell later, but only if Micron rises above the strike before the 18 June expiry.

The 18 June 2026 USD 1,100 call shows a premium around USD 37.40 per share, or about USD 3,740 for 1 standard contract. Source: SaxoTrader (snapshot 27 May 2026)

Three possible outcomes

Micron stays below USD 1,100

If Micron remains below USD 1,100 at expiry, the call should expire worthless. The investor keeps the shares and keeps the premium. The income would be about USD 3,740 before costs and taxes. Compared with a 100-share position worth around USD 91,450, that equals roughly 4.1% of the share position value. The effective downside break-even shifts from USD 914.50 to about USD 877.10 – the current price minus the USD 37.40 premium received.

Micron rises above USD 1,100

If Micron trades above USD 1,100 at expiry, the shares may be called away. The investor may have to sell 100 shares at the strike price. The gain from USD 914.50 to USD 1,100 would be USD 185.50 per share, or USD 18,550 for 100 shares. Adding the USD 3,740 premium gives a total gain of about USD 22,290 before costs and taxes. The effective sale level is USD 1,137.40 – the USD 1,100 strike plus the USD 37.40 premium. If Micron rises far above USD 1,100, the covered call seller will not benefit from that extra upside.

Micron falls

If Micron falls, the premium provides a small cushion. The USD 37.40 premium lowers the effective holding cost from USD 914.50 to about USD 877.10. Below that level, the investor still has normal shareholder downside. A covered call is not strong downside protection – it is primarily an income strategy with a limited buffer. In the extreme case of the shares falling to zero, the loss measured from the current share price would be about USD 87,710 before costs and taxes: the USD 91,450 share position minus the USD 3,740 premium received.

Covered call strategy ticket and risk graph] Caption: The covered call receives premium upfront, but the upside is capped if Micron rises above the strike price. Source: SaxoTrader (snapshot 27 May 2026)

Why not choose the expiry after earnings?

The 18 June expiry comes before Micron’s expected 24 June earnings date. That makes the timing important.

An option expiring after earnings may offer more premium. That can look tempting, especially after a big rally. But higher premium usually reflects higher expected risk. Earnings can trigger sharp price moves in either direction. For a first-time covered call seller, that can make the position harder to manage and the outcome less predictable.

This is why the expiry before earnings may be a cleaner choice for investors approaching covered calls for the first time. It allows the investor to generate income and set a possible exit level before the main event risk arrives.

When this may make sense

This covered call may fit an investor who already owns 100 Micron shares, has benefited from the rally, and would be comfortable selling at USD 1,100 before earnings.

It may not fit an investor who wants to hold Micron through earnings at all costs, or who would regret missing further upside above USD 1,100.

The strike should not be chosen because the premium looks attractive. It should be chosen because the sale price is acceptable.

The bottom line

A covered call can help Micron shareholders turn a strong rally into a more deliberate plan. It creates income today, sets a possible sale price above the current market, and avoids carrying the short call through the expected earnings release.

But it is not free money. The investor accepts capped upside, possible assignment, and continued downside exposure as a shareholder.

For long-term investors, that is the right way to think about it. A covered call is not about finding the perfect top. It is about deciding in advance what outcome you can live with.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.

Educational Resources
Position management for covered calls and cash-secured puts Understanding the covered call option strategy Understanding the poor mans covered call Understanding the option collar strategy Understanding the naked put option strategy How put options work Understanding the protective put option strategy Guide on long-term options for strategic portfolio management Assignment explained - 01 - what every options trader and investor should know Assignment explained - 02 - how to avoid assignment Assignment explained - 03 - how to use option assignment to your advantage Assignment explained - 04 - option assignment cheat sheet

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Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Market Quick Take - 29 May 2026

Fri, 29 May 2026 06:13:00 Z

Market Quick Take – 29 May 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

Equities: US records were led by AI infrastructure, Europe softened on geopolitics, Asia rebounded as ceasefire hopes lifted tech.
Volatility: record highs, low VIX, upside skew
Digital Assets: Bitcoin stabilising, ETF outflows
Commodities: BCOM suffers monthly setback as crude and fuel prices tumble on ceasefire hopes; gold survives test of key support
Fixed Income: US treasury yields fell Thursday, especially at longer end of the curve. Long-dated JGB’s rallied sharply Friday, sending yields lower.
Currencies: USD weakens in line with crude oil price drop, price action sluggish. NZD and SEK strong.
Macro: US April Trade & May CPIs from major European countries

Macro headlines

The US side reports that the US and Iran have reportedly reached a tentative deal to extend a ceasefire by 60 days and launch further talks on Tehran’s nuclear program, raising hopes the three-month conflict could be nearing a resolution. The deal would allow unrestricted shipping through the strait without tolls or harassment. But as of Friday morning, nothing has been signed.
US April PCE inflation rose 3.8% YoY, the highest since May 2023, driven by elevated energy costs. Core PCE came in at 0.2% MoM versus the 0.3% estimate, a modest positive surprise. Personal income was flat versus an expected 0.4% gain while spending rose 0.5%.
US Q1 GDP was revised down to 1.6% annualised from the initial 2.0% estimate, below consensus expectations, driven by weaker consumer spending growth.
Fed speakers struck a cautious but increasingly hawkish tone. St. Louis Fed's Musalem warned the real policy rate is below neutral, longer-term inflation expectations are drifting up, and a rate hike scenario exists if disinflation does not materialise within one to two quarters.
The account of the ECB April meeting showed a number of officials saying that the decision to not hike was a close call and they would not have opposed a hike at that meeting. The accounts firmly point to a June 10-11 rate hike as priced by markets.
Tokyo May CPI data out today saw across the board softer numbers than expected. The headline inflation came in at 1.4% YoY vs. 1.6% expected and 1.5% in April, while the ex-Fresh Food measure came in at 1.3% YoY vs. 1.5% expected and 1.5% in April and the ex-Fresh Food and Energy measure came in at 1.6% YoY vs. 1.8% expected and 1.9% YoY in April.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0645 – France Flash May CPI
0700 – Spain Flash May CPI
0900 – Italy Flash May CPI
1200 – Germany Flash May CPI
1230 – US April Advance Goods Trade Balance
1345 – US May Chicago PMI

Fed speakers: Schmid (1050), Bowman (1310), Paulson (1315), Daly (1640)

Earnings events

Thursday (yesterday): Dell Technologies, Autodesk, NetApp, Dollar Tree, Best Buy, Hormel Foods

Next week:

Monday: Hewlett Packard Enterprise
Tuesday: Palo Alto Networks, Dollar General, Ulta Beauty
Wednesday: Broadcom, Inditex, CrowdStrike, Medtronic, Veeva Systems
Thursday: Ciena, Lululemon Athletica

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.6% to 7,563.63, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.9% to 26,917.47, and the Dow edged up less than 0.1% to 50,668.97 as US equities hit fresh records. The session was supported by lower oil stress, softer bond yields and another reminder that the AI infrastructure trade is still wearing comfortable shoes. Dell jumped 39.1% after hours after lifting its full-year revenue outlook and AI-server target, while Hewlett Packard Enterprise rose 26.3% and Super Micro Computer added almost 10.0% in sympathy. Agilent gained 16.9% after stronger results and guidance. Investors now watch whether AI demand turns into durable margins.
Europe: The Stoxx 600 fell 0.5% to 625.11, the FTSE 100 dropped 0.8% to 10,425.96, the DAX lost 0.3% to 25,092.25, and the Euro Stoxx 50 slipped 0.3% to 6,055.11 as Middle East uncertainty kept risk appetite cautious. Losses eased from the lows after reports of progress on the US-Iran ceasefire, but financials and insurers weighed on the region. Soitec surged 24.6% after stronger sales expectations and better cash flow, helped by AI-related chip demand. Siemens Energy fell 4.4% on profit-taking after a strong run, while Dassault Systèmes dropped 5.7% as software sentiment stayed fragile. Markets now look to European inflation data and central bank signals.
Asia: Asian markets traded higher on Friday as Wall Street records and hopes of a longer US-Iran ceasefire lifted sentiment. Japan’s Nikkei rose 1.8%, South Korea’s Kospi gained 2.3%, and Taiwan’s Taiex added 2.3%, while Australia’s ASX 200 rose 1.0%; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng advanced 0.4% and China’s Shanghai Composite slipped 0.2%. Tech led the move, with chip and server-linked names supported by Dell’s AI-server surprise and lower oil prices. Samsung Electronics rose 2.3% as South Korean investors bought the chip rebound. Lenovo extended a powerful weekly rally in Hong Kong on AI hardware optimism. The next test is whether ceasefire headlines can stay calm for more than one trading session.

Volatility

Volatility remains remarkably contained despite a busy macro backdrop. The VIX closed at 15.74, down from 16.29 the previous session, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.58% to a fresh record close of 7,563.63. Markets continue to draw support from improving sentiment around a potential extension of the US-Iran ceasefire, which has helped ease pressure on oil prices and inflation expectations, although investors remain alert to economic data and geopolitical headlines.
SPX expected move: Options markets are pricing an expected move of approximately ±34.6 points (±0.46%) for today's session. The day's 0DTE positioning shows a modest upside skew, with near-the-money calls attracting more demand than equivalent puts around the 7,565 strike. This suggests investors remain positioned for further gains, although the relatively low level of volatility leaves markets vulnerable to unexpected headlines.
Today's key economic release is the Chicago PMI, while next week's calendar becomes considerably busier with earnings from Broadcom, CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Ulta Beauty and Lululemon, providing several potential catalysts for market sentiment.

Digital Assets

Digital assets are attempting to stabilise after a volatile week driven by geopolitical uncertainty, higher oil prices and continued ETF outflows. Bitcoin trades around USD 73,586, while Ethereum holds near USD 2,011, both recovering from recent lows as broader risk sentiment improves. However, institutional demand remains mixed, with recent spot ETF flow data showing continued withdrawals from both Bitcoin and Ethereum products.
Among crypto-linked ETFs, IBIT trades at USD 41.56 (-2.1%) and ETHA at USD 15.19 (-1.9%), reflecting the recent pressure on digital asset prices. Major altcoins are showing a more balanced picture, with XRP near USD 1.31, Solana around USD 82, and Ethereum outperforming slightly versus Bitcoin over the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, crypto-related equities are mixed, with Coinbase (+4.9%), Riot Platforms (+3.0%) and Circle (+5.5%) outperforming, while MicroStrategy (-1.7%) and Marathon Digital (-1.8%) remain under pressure.
Options flow in crypto-linked names continues to show a defensive bias, with institutional investors maintaining downside hedges in several crypto proxies while selectively retaining upside exposure. The result is a market that appears cautious rather than outright bearish, with sentiment likely to remain highly sensitive to ETF flows, regulatory developments and the direction of Bitcoin.

Commodities

The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index (BCOM) is heading for a monthly loss of around 3%, its first decline in five months. Hopes for a Middle East peace deal gathered momentum during the month, weighing heavily on energy prices and sending the BCOM Energy Index down more than 8%. The decline would have been even steeper had it not been for a strong 12% rebound in natural gas.
Broad-based losses across the agriculture sector, led by corn, wheat, sugar, and livestock, also weighed on overall performance, more than offsetting a 5% gain in the BCOM Industrial Metals Index, where copper and zinc led advances. It was another challenging month for precious metals, with silver strength largely compensating for a decline in gold.
Oil fell to a five-week low after the US and Iran tentatively agreed to extend their ceasefire by 60 days, with Brent heading for its biggest monthly decline since 2020 on expectations the agreement could pave the way for a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. While significant hurdles remain, the market is reacting to the prospect of a supply surge once hundreds of tankers loaded with crude oil and refined fuels are released from the Persian Gulf. In the months ahead, however, demand to replenish depleted global inventories is likely to provide support, potentially lifting the price floor compared with pre-war levels.
Gold survived another attempt to break below its 200-day moving average, currently near USD 4,400, as technically driven short sellers were squeezed by improving prospects for a US-Iran deal. The easing of energy-driven inflation concerns helped push bond yields and the dollar lower, providing support to bullion. Having successfully tested this key support level twice during the conflict, gold remains caught in a challenging technical environment, with a break above USD 4,575 and ultimately the 50-day moving average at USD 4,628 needed to improve the near-term outlook.

Fixed Income

US Treasuries rallied again Thursday after early weakness on the back and forth headlines over prospects for a significant ceasefire extension in the US-Iran war. The benchmark 2-year treasury yield retreated from intraday highs on Thursday of 4.08% to close near unchanged at 4.02%, where it also traded early Friday in early European hours. A similar pattern in the benchmark 10-year treasury yield, though with stronger buying demand late Thursday as the yield retreated from an intraday high of 4.53% to close down more than three basis points at 4.45%, dropping another basis point to 4.44% early Friday .
Japan’s government bond yield curve flattened on strong demand for longer-dated JGB’s, as the benchmark 10-year JGB yield fell nearly five basis points to 2.655% and the 30-year fell more than five basis points to below 3.93%, eyeing its lowest close in more than two weeks.

Currencies

The US dollar rally reversed on Thursday on renewed hopes for an extended ceasefire in the US-Iran war, which also sent crude oil prices lower. EURUSD rallied from below 1.1600 to as high as 1.1661, challenging the exact range high of late before retreating slightly. USDJPY retreated from its highest levels in weeks at 159.65 at one point Thursday to trade near 159.30 by early Friday.
The improved risk sentiment outlook in recent days has boosted the traditionally more pro-cyclical Swedish krone within Europe, sending EURSEK lower to below 10.77 after its challenge of 11.00 last week. The next focus is the range low from mid-April just below 10.75.
The AUDNZD selloff extended again Thursday and early Friday as AUDNZD finds itself at 1.2025, down more than 40 pips from the Thursday close and possibly set to challenge the psychologically important 1.2000 level. The recent deceleration in the policy tightening outlook from the RBA relative to the RBNZ’s newfound hawkishness has helped drive the recent dramatic repricing lower of this pair. A strong rebound in the ANZ Activity Outlook and Business Confidence survey early Friday also boosted the kiwi.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Advanced orders Europe Employment United States United Kingdom European Union (EU) XAUUSD USD EURUSD USDJPY Energy (Sector) Technology S P 500 index Quick Take Weekly Newsletter

Asia Market Quick Take – 29 May, 2026

Fri, 29 May 2026 01:00:00 Z

Asia Market Quick Take – 29 May, 2026

Key points:

Macro: US, Iran agree tentative 60-day truce, Hormuz reopening; Trump approval pending
Equities: Dell soars 38% on massive AI-server growth; Costco posts strong sales and memberships
FX: Dollar weakened on Iran truce, soft PCE; yen strengthens near 160
Commodities: Oil swings on Iran conflict and truce news; gold and silver rebound
Fixed income: Treasuries extend rally on Iran peace hopes

------------------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

The US and Iran reportedly reached a tentative 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though the agreement awaits President Trump's final approval. The deal would allow unrestricted shipping through the strait without tolls or harassment.
US April PCE inflation rose 3.8% YoY, the highest since May 2023, driven by elevated energy costs. Core PCE came in at 0.2% MoM versus the 0.3% estimate, a modest positive surprise. Personal income was flat versus an expected 0.4% gain while spending rose 0.5%.
US Q1 GDP was revised down to 1.6% annualised from the initial 2.0% estimate, below consensus expectations, driven by weaker consumer spending growth.
Fed speakers struck a cautious but increasingly hawkish tone. St. Louis Fed's Musalem warned the real policy rate is below neutral, longer-term inflation expectations are drifting up, and a rate hike scenario exists if disinflation does not materialise within one to two quarters.
ECB April meeting accounts showed a number of officials said the decision was a close call and they would not have opposed a hike at that meeting. The accounts firmly point to a June 10-11 rate hike as priced by markets.
Tokyo CPI data releases this morning and is the key near-term data point for BOJ rate hike expectations. Markets are pricing approximately 75% probability of a BOJ hike in June and 92% by July.
Canada Q1 GDP releases today with consensus around 1.4% annualised growth, rebounding from a -0.6% Q4 contraction. Canada's Q1 current account deficit widened sharply to C$7.2 billion from C$1.0 billion, surpassing the C$4.3 billion consensus.

Equities:

US: US equity indexes hit record highs on Thursday as the S&P 500 advanced 0.6% to 7,563.63, marking its sixth consecutive daily gain. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.9% to 26,917.47, also hitting a record. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up less than 0.1% to 50,668.97. Dell Technologies soared 38% in after-hours trading after raising its full-year revenue outlook to $165-169 billion including $60 billion from AI server sales, with AI-server revenue up 757% in Q1. Hewlett Packard Enterprise climbed 16%, while Super Micro Computer added 10% after-hours in tandem. Agilent Technologies surged nearly 17% after its full-year earnings forecast beat estimates. Costco’s Q3 saw EPS in line with expectations, revenue beat at $70.5 billion, comparable sales up 9.8%, membership income up 7% and renewal rates near 90%. Anthropic became the world’s most valuable AI startup after raising $65 billion at a $965 billion valuation, nearly tripling its February mark; its run-rate revenue is reportedly above $47 billion, and Apollo/Blackstone are arranging about $36 billion in debt to finance Google TPU purchases.
EU: European stocks fell on Thursday as the Stoxx 600 index closed 0.5% lower, having earlier shed as much as 1% as traders awaited confirmation of the US-Iran ceasefire reports. The FTSE 100 fell 0.8% to 10,425.96, its largest one-day decline since May 15. The DAX dropped 0.3% to 25,092.25 for its third consecutive day of losses. The Euro Stoxx 50 ended 0.25% lower at 6,055.11. French chip material engineer Soitec soared after projecting a 15% revenue uptick for Q1 2027. Siemens Energy led declines, falling 4.4%, while Dassault Systemes dropped 5.7%.
Asia: Asian equity index futures for Australia, Japan and Hong Kong were all pointing higher early Friday, tracking the S&P 500's sixth consecutive record close and positive US-Iran ceasefire news. On Thursday, South Korea's Kospi fell 0.5% to 8,185.29 after dropping as much as 4% intraday following the Bank of Korea's hawkish signal, though resilient dip buying limited losses. The index is up 207% from a year ago, driven by AI-fuelled chip stocks. Japan's Nikkei declined 0.5% to 64,693.12 on Thursday as fresh military strikes in the Persian Gulf stoked concern about peace deal prospects. Taiwan's Taiex hit an intraday record before turning negative. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index retreated from a record, ending a five-day winning streak.

FX:

USD weakened after reports of a tentative 60‑day US–Iran ceasefire extension, pending Trump’s approval, pushing the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index down 0.2%. A softer‑than‑expected April PCE print (0.4% vs 0.5% forecast) added to the pressure. SEK and NZD leading G-10 advances.
JPY was the only G-10 currency to gain Thursday, with USDJPY slipping marginally to 159.25 and nearing the 160 level associated with past intervention, prompting hedging ahead of Tokyo CPI.
EUR rose 0.22% to 1.1652, breaking a two-day losing streak but remaining in consolidation near its 55-day moving average; it’s seen as better placed versus sterling if the ECB hikes in June.
CAD strengthened 0.40% against the USD to 1.3786, its largest one-day gain since April 30, snapping a two-session losing streak for the greenback. The move came ahead of today's Q1 GDP release.
Emerging-market FX logged a seventh straight advance, the longest run since January 2025, on optimism over a potential US–Iran accord, while USDCNH edged up 0.1% to 6.7883.

Commodities:

WTI settled at $88.90 (+0.2%) and Brent at $93.71 (-0.6%) after an unusually volatile Thursday that saw WTI trade across nearly a $10 range. Prices first spiked on fresh Iranian drone attacks and US airstrikes in the Strait of Hormuz, then reversed sharply after reports of a tentative 60‑day US–Iran ceasefire deal, pending Trump’s approval.
Gold futures rose 1.1% to $4,499.30 per troy ounce on Thursday, snapping a three-session losing streak, as tentative hopes of a US-Iran deal supported the precious metal. Silver climbed 1.4% to $75.645 per ounce. CME Group lowered margins on gold and silver futures contracts after a review of market volatility.
Copper futures settled 1.36% higher at $6.3960 per pound on Thursday, the largest one-day gain since May 20, marking the fifth-highest close in history. LME 3-month copper closed $170 higher at $13,702 per ton, supported by supply concerns and AI infrastructure demand.

Fixed income:

Treasuries rallied on Thursday on the peace deal report with yields falling 1 to 3 basis points across the curve and the long end outperforming. The 10-year yield fell 2.9 basis points to 4.455%, marking six consecutive sessions of declines, the longest streak since April 2025. The 30-year yield declined 2.7 basis points to 4.984%.
The US Treasury's $44 billion 7-year note auction stopped through at 4.290% versus the 4.291% when-issued yield at the bidding deadline, indicating demand slightly exceeded expectations. The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.52, above the previous auction's 2.51, with the 10.4% primary dealer award the lowest in three months.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

APAC Research

Saxo Group

London Quick Take - Thursday - FTSE Slides Amid Middle East Escalation and Inflation Concerns

Thu, 28 May 2026 10:02:00 Z

Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.

UK

FTSE 100

Stock markets faltered in Asia overnight as reports of further U.S. strikes on Iran, alongside missile activity impacting Gulf infrastructure, dampened optimism around a potential peace deal and prompted a risk-off tone across global markets.

The FTSE is trading –1.1% lower at the time of writing, while the Euro STOXX 50 is down -0.5%, as gains in chipmakers like ASML help cushion broader declines driven by the U.S. military strikes in Iran. Unfortunately, the FTSE lacks similar exposure to large semiconductor names and is instead weighed down by heavyweight constituents including HSBC -2.0% and AstraZeneca -2.3%.

Equities in Focus

UK takeover activity has accelerated recently, driven largely by overseas buyers targeting undervalued British companies which trade at a discount to US and European peers, making them attractive and helping push dealmaking to near-record levels in 2026. Yesterday, PPHE (Park Plaza owner) received a bid from Israel’s Fattal Group at a 47% premium to the closing share price of PPHE of 15 GBP on 13 November 2025, the price has increased +22.95% today to 19.84 GBP still below the value of the offer.

Recent bids also highlight this trend: Ingredion has made a £2.7bn approach for Tate & Lyle on the 14th of May, while private equity firm Apollo has proposed a £1.5bn takeover of Bodycote at a premium on the 22nd of May.

Consumer & Economic Data

The Food and Drink Federation’s industry wide survey released today found that over 80% of firms plan to raise prices to pass on higher costs stemming from the Iran war, including increased energy, transport, packaging, fertiliser and ingredient costs. This matters because it points to sustained upward pressure on food inflation, one of the most visible components of household spending, and reinforces concerns that inflation could remain elevated rather than fall quickly.

Gilts

UK gilts have seen a pullback today, with the 10‑year yield up nearly 2bps, ending a five‑day rally driven by easing expectations of tighter BoE policy. Earlier gains were supported by weaker labour data, but yields are now edging higher again as rising oil prices and continued Middle East tensions revive inflation concerns. Markets are currently pricing around 42bps of tightening by year‑end (roughly one to two hikes), with the first rate increase almost fully priced in for the Bank of England’s September meeting.

Sterling

Sterling is weakening as investors move into the US dollar amid Middle East uncertainty, pushing the pound to a 10‑day low. Rising oil prices are also supporting the dollar because commodities tend to be priced in dollars, so higher prices increase demand for the currency.

At the same time, UK political uncertainty and expectations that the ECB may raise rates faster than the BoE are adding further pressure on the pound.

US

Equities in Focus

Yesterday’s Earnings

Price	Company	EPS Estimate	EPS Actual	Summary
+37.44%	Snowflake	EPS $0.32	EPS $0.39	Beat EPS expectations and lifted full‑year guidance and a $6 billion deal for Amazon chips bolstered investor confidence
-0.51%	HP Inc	EPS $0.71	EPS $0.86	Beat earnings and revenue and issued upbeat guidance, despite flagging rising memory costs would pressure margins.
+0.40%	Salesforce	EPS $3.12	EPS $3.88	Beat EPS expectations, but the firm did not fully calm concerns about AI disruption.

Today’s Earnings

Time	Company	EPS Estimate	What to watch
After Close	Dell	EPS $2.91	Whether AI server revenue beats the ~13bn guidance as production scales.
After Close	Costco	EPS $4.91	Whether membership renewal rates remain above the ~90% historical level
After Close	Okta	EPS $0.85	Growth in remaining performance obligations, which is a key forward revenue indicator showing the revenue booked in the next 12 months

Consumer & Economic Data

Time	Data	Consensus	Previous	What to watch
13:30 BST	Core PCE	0.3%	0.3%	First priority for Fed policy decisions, as it is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure directly tied to its price stability mandate.
13:30 BST	GDP Growth Rate	2%	0.5%	Lower priority for the Fed as it is backward‑looking and heavily revised, so growth is assessed more through inflation and labour data.

Commodities

Oil

Oil prices jumped more than 2% due to tensions in the Middle East. The news of the strikes reversed the previous session’s sharp sell-off, when prices had dropped over 5% on hopes of a US‑Iran deal.

Gold

Gold prices dropped to a two‑month low at 4,417 USD as ongoing tensions in the US‑Iran conflict boosted inflation concerns, increasing expectations of higher interest rates. Investors are awaiting key inflation data for signals on the Federal Reserve’s policy direction under new chair Kevin Warsh

Victoria Ramirez

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities United Kingdom Highlighted articles UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer FR US Actualites et Analyses Trump Version 2 - Investors Volatility investor TagFeed En hurtig tanke

Snowflake rips, Gold at critical levels.

Thu, 28 May 2026 09:48:00 Z

Snowflake rose over 30% after reporting earnings Wednesday.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favourite podcast app.

Questions and comments, please!

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

Options Brief - Iran oil swing, Dow record - 28 May 2026

Thu, 28 May 2026 09:46:00 Z

A fabricated Iranian television broadcast moved oil nearly 3 percent in under an hour on Wednesday. When US officials denied the document was real, the move reversed and crude closed up 2.73 percent at $91.10. Equity markets barely noticed: the Dow hit a fresh all-time record, the S&P 500 held flat, and Marvell Technology beat Q1 estimates convincingly after the close.

Options Brief – Iran oil swing, Dow record – 28 May 2026

A fabricated Iran deal draft jolted crude nearly 3 percent intraday as the Dow pushed to a fresh all-time record – and the vol term structure is offering a more useful read than the headline VIX.

Wednesday, 27 May 2026 delivered a deceptively calm session: the Dow Jones Industrial Average printed a fresh all-time high while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended effectively flat after semiconductors surrendered their morning gains. The real story was in crude oil, where a fabricated MOU draft broadcast by Iranian television briefly sent WTI lower before US officials dismissed it, triggering a sharp reversal to a 2.73 percent gain. Marvell Technology beat estimates convincingly after the close, with the stock up roughly 5 percent in after-hours. Heading into Thursday, US equity futures are pointing modestly lower and the vol term structure – with the one-day VIX at 10 and the 30-day near 17 – is signalling a calm open with meaningful uncertainty still priced into the weeks ahead.

Headline driver

Iranian state television published what it claimed was an unofficial draft of a US-Iran agreement that would lift the naval blockade and reopen the Strait of Hormuz – briefly sending WTI crude lower on supply-return expectations before US officials dismissed the document as a “complete fabrication.” Oil reversed and closed up 2.73 percent at $91.10. Equity markets shrugged: the Dow Jones Industrial Average pushed to a fresh all-time record of 50,649 while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended effectively flat after chip stocks gave back their early gains. After the close, Marvell Technology reported Q1 FY2027 results that beat consensus, sending the stock roughly 5 percent higher in after-hours trading.

Market snapshot

S&P 500: 7,520 (+0.02%) – near record, essentially unchanged on the session
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 50,649 (+0.36%) – new all-time high
Nasdaq 100: 29,974 (–0.09%) – semiconductor sector retreated from morning highs
WTI crude oil: $91.10 (+2.73%) – sharp reversal after US denial of leaked Iran MOU draft
US 10-year yield: 4.47% – quiet, modest easing on the session
Market regime: Low Vol Bull – VIX 16.73, 20-day realised vol 10.2% (decreasing), S&P 500 +7.10% above its 50-day moving average

Options flow sentiment

Based on end-of-day 27 May 2026 – yesterday’s positioning, not today’s price action.

Single-name flow in the major technology names leaned clearly bullish, with call structures dominating the tape across the AI heavyweights – pointing toward upside participation, and leaving market makers in a position where they typically need to buy the underlying as prices rise.
At the index and ETF level the tone was more cautious, with meaningful downside protection in ETFs tracking the Nasdaq 100 and small caps, suggesting portfolio managers are running concentrated single-name exposure while keeping macro hedges in place.

Options angle

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which measures the market’s 30-day implied volatility expectation for the S&P 500, closed near 16.73 – in line with the low-vol regime that has persisted for most of the past several weeks. More informative than the headline VIX level today is the shape of the vol curve at shorter tenors: the one-day VIX (VIX1D) sat at 10.07 and the nine-day equivalent (VIX9D) at 13.27, meaning the market is pricing Thursday’s session as almost eventless. The gap between that and the 30-day reading of 16.73 reflects genuine uncertainty further out – the Iran deal timeline, Friday’s near-dated options expiry cluster, and month-end flows are all contributing to vol being higher for the weeks ahead than for the immediate session.

One concrete vol event arrives at today’s open: Marvell Technology beat Q1 estimates convincingly and surged roughly 5 percent in after-hours, which means the implied volatility priced into near-term options for the earnings event will deflate sharply once the gap is established. That vol-crush pattern – event uncertainty collapsing to event resolution – is one of the most reliable and actionable dynamics in single-stock options.

Strategy insight – Earnings vol crush and the calendar spread. When a stock moves on earnings, the implied volatility built into near-expiry options tends to collapse faster than the volatility priced into longer-dated contracts. Front-month options were inflated to price in the event; once the event resolves, that premium unwinds quickly. Back-month options retain more value because they still carry uncertainty the market has not yet addressed. A calendar spread – short a near-term option, long the same strike at a later expiry – is designed to benefit from exactly this divergence: the short leg loses its premium faster than the long leg, generating a net gain if the stock remains close to the strike. The structure fits best right after a catalyst has resolved and a stock has gapped to a new level, with the longer-dated trend still forming.
The primary risk is a sharp second move away from the strike, which compresses the difference between the two legs and reduces the trade’s edge.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.

Strategy insight – Binary events and options structure. The Iran deal situation illustrates a specific options problem: when a market is waiting on a binary political outcome, the underlying asset is not following a gradual drift but sitting on a potential step-change. Standard directional positions price for gradual moves and tend to overpay for direction while underpricing the jump. When the outcome is genuinely uncertain – deal confirmed, deal collapsed, or further delay – a structure that profits from a large move in either direction fits better than a one-sided bet. A long straddle or long strangle, which profits if the underlying moves sharply regardless of direction, is built for this setup.
The cost is the combined premium paid for both legs, which is also the maximum loss if the market moves very little; the payoff is open-ended if the resolution triggers a significant gap.

Conclusion

Iran is the dominant live variable heading into Thursday. Oil’s response to an unverified document confirmed how much supply-shock premium remains embedded in crude, and that sensitivity will not fade until a deal is signed or definitively falls apart. Equity markets remain in the low-vol bull regime, though the sharp gap between the one-day VIX at 10.07 and the 30-day measure at 16.73 signals that while today looks calm, medium-term uncertainty is still being priced. Marvell’s beat gives the chip narrative a positive tone at the open; Salesforce’s after-hours results – an EPS beat dampened by cautious guidance – add a software read to the AI theme. US equity futures are pointing modestly lower pre-market, so the open is unlikely to extend Wednesday’s record prints without a fresh catalyst.

Related articles/content
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More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Market Quick Take - 28 May 2026

Thu, 28 May 2026 06:53:00 Z

Market Quick Take – 28 May 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

Equities: US and Europe edged higher on oil relief, while Asia reversed lower as Gulf risks returned.
Volatility: PCE inflation, oil rebound, Middle East tensions, VIX subdued
Digital Assets: Bitcoin below USD 73k, ETF outflows
Commodities: Crude oil spikes and gold slumps as no end to the Middle East war remains in sight; copper shipped to the US ahead of tariff update
Fixed Income: US Treasury yields higher on crude oil price surge. Japan’s short-dated yields drop.
Currencies: USD firms again on jump in crude oil prices, treasury yields. EURUSD eyeing recent range lows, USDJPY eyeing 160.00 and intervention risks.
Macro: US April PCE Inflation, US April New Home Sales, Japan May Tokyo CPI

Macro headlines

Iran said a return to war was unlikely, while Trump told a televised White House cabinet meeting he was "not satisfied" with negotiations, pushing back against Iranian reports about a draft memorandum of understanding.
Trump says no nation would control the Straits of Hormuz and have carried out defensive airstrikes on Iranian military site yesterday, as it threatened American forces and commercial traffic using drones.
Fed Governor Lisa Cook stated she is "prepared to raise rates" if inflation persists, noting that after five years of above-target inflation, she is particularly attuned to the risk that elevated inflation will become embedded in price and wage-setting behavior.
The UK faces a "lost generation" from youth unemployment, with a government-commissioned review warning that without action, the number of young people not in education, employment or training is due to hit 1.25 million within five years, up from about 1 million currently.
The US granted Volvo Car an exemption from a China-linked connected-vehicle ban, while European car sales rose for a third month on robust EV and hybrid demand. European firms in China are turning more upbeat even as Airbus deliveries face delays.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

· 1130 – ECB Minutes from April Meeting
· 1230 – US April PCE Inflation
· 1230 – US 1Q GDP revision, Personal Consumption and Personal Spending
· 1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
· 1230 – US Apr. Preliminary Durable Goods Orders
· 1300 – South Africa’s Central Bank (SARB) Rate Announcement
· 1400 – US April New Home Sales
· 1430 – EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
· 1600 – US Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report (delayed from Wednesday)
· 1700 – US Treasury to auction 7-year notes
· 2330 – Japan May Tokyo CPI

Earnings this week

Wednesday (yesterday): Marvell Technology, Salesforce, Synopsys, Snowflake, Agilent Technologies
Thursday (today): Dell Technologies, Autodesk, NetApp, Dollar Tree, Best Buy, Hormel Foods

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 edged up less than 0.1% to 7,520.36, while the Dow rose 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.1%, leaving all three at record closes as lower oil offset mixed signals on US-Iran talks. Earnings and AI demand remained the main company story. Snowflake surged 37.8% after stronger results, higher guidance and a larger Amazon Web Services partnership, while Dell rose 4.4% after winning a $9.7 billion Pentagon contract. Salesforce slipped 1.8% as its update did not fully calm concerns about AI disruption.
Europe: European equities were steadier, with the Stoxx 600 little changed at 628.18, the DAX almost flat, the CAC 40 up 0.4% to 8,207.89, the FTSE 100 up 0.1% and Switzerland’s SMI up 0.8%. Lower oil and EU steps to remove duties on some US goods helped sentiment, while autos rose after European car sales increased for a third month in April. Akzo Nobel jumped 19.5% after rejecting a takeover approach, giving chemicals a useful lift. BP fell 2.7% after removing Chairman Albert Manifold, keeping governance questions in focus. Markets now watch whether lower oil can last longer than a headline cycle.
Asia: Asian equities turned lower today, reversing part of Wednesday’s AI-led rally as renewed Gulf tensions pushed oil higher again and reminded investors that geopolitics rarely respects a tidy market narrative. Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.4%, South Korea’s Kospi dropped around 3.2% after its record run, and the broader MSCI Asia-Pacific index lost 2.1%. The pullback hit yesterday’s chip leaders, with SK Hynix and Samsung cooling after sharp gains tied to AI memory demand. Hong Kong also stayed weak, with the Hang Seng down 1.1%, as Alibaba, Xiaomi, XPeng and Li Auto remained under pressure. The next test is whether AI optimism can absorb another oil shock.

Volatility

Market volatility remains relatively contained, but investors are entering a potentially market-moving session with a more cautious tone after renewed Middle East tensions pushed oil prices higher overnight. The VIX closed at 16.29 on Wednesday, down 4.23%, while shorter-dated volatility gauges also eased, suggesting markets are not yet pricing in panic despite geopolitical headlines. Futures this morning point slightly lower after reports of fresh US and Iranian military actions near the Strait of Hormuz lifted Brent crude back toward USD 97 per barrel, reviving inflation concerns ahead of today’s key US data releases.
Today’s macro calendar matters. Markets will closely watch US Core PCE inflation, GDP revisions, durable goods orders and jobless claims, as stronger-than-expected data could reinforce the “higher for longer” rate narrative already voiced by several Fed officials this week. The combination of elevated oil prices and sticky inflation remains one of the biggest volatility risks for equities going into June.
Based on SPX options pricing, the market is implying a move of roughly 52.5 points, or 0.70%, through Friday’s expiry. For today’s expiration, options positioning shows a mild upside skew, with traders paying slightly more for near-term calls than puts around the 7,520 level. The 7,520 call traded around 21.30 versus roughly 14.00 for the equivalent put, suggesting investors still see room for upside participation despite geopolitical noise.
Institutional options flow continues to show a mixed but constructive backdrop. Large upside call exposure remained concentrated in names such as NVDA, AAPL and TSLA, while index hedging through SPY, QQQ and IWM puts showed that investors are still protecting portfolios against macro shocks. The overall message from the options market is not outright fear, but rather cautious participation with hedges still firmly in place.

Digital Assets

Digital assets remain under pressure as macro uncertainty, geopolitical headlines and persistent ETF outflows continue to weigh on sentiment. Bitcoin traded near USD 72,800 overnight, while Ethereum slipped below USD 2,000, with most major altcoins also trading lower. XRP, Solana and Dogecoin all weakened alongside broader risk assets, reflecting a market that is still highly sensitive to rate expectations and liquidity conditions.
The main pressure point remains institutional positioning. US spot Bitcoin ETFs continued to see notable outflows this week, with IBIT again at the centre of attention after reports of a large dark-pool block transaction coincided with bitcoin’s recent reversal lower. ETHA also remained weak as investors reduced exposure to Ethereum-linked products. While overall ETF assets remain sizeable, the near-term flow picture suggests institutions are becoming more selective rather than aggressively adding risk.
At the same time, options flow in crypto-linked equities turned more constructive. Traders added upside exposure in names such as IREN, CORZ, COIN and MSTR through medium- and long-dated calls, signalling that some investors still expect renewed momentum if macro conditions stabilise. However, hedging activity in IBIT puts shows caution has not disappeared, especially ahead of today’s US PCE inflation release and next month’s Fed meeting.

Commodities

Brent crude spiked to USD 98 from a USD 94 low on Wednesday after renewed US attacks near the Strait of Hormuz and retaliatory IRGC strikes targeting US bases, underscoring the limited prospect for a near-term peace deal as the US and Iran remained far apart on steps needed to reopen the vital waterway. In a separate move, the US Treasury sanctioned the Persian Gulf Strait Authority in a bid to prevent Tehran from profiting from vessel transit tolls through the strait. Overall, the market remains caught between pricing the prospect of a deal and the growing realization that a resolution still looks increasingly elusive.
Gold fell to a two-month low as US Treasuries sold off and the dollar strengthened following a fresh surge in crude oil prices, fuelling concerns that tight energy markets will continue to exert upward pressure on inflation. In addition, rising fuel costs are increasing pressure on some countries to sell bullion reserves to defend their currencies and support economies struggling with higher import bills. From a technical perspective, a sustained break below the 200-day moving average - currently at USD 4,395 and breached today for the first time since 2023 - raises the risk of a retest of the March low near USD 4,100.
COMEX copper is once again trading at a rising premium to London, echoing last year’s dislocation, as traders continue shipping metal to the US amid renewed speculation about future import tariffs. The resulting surge in COMEX-monitored inventories to a fresh record has tightened availability elsewhere, thereby helping underpin prices for a metal already in strong demand from the global energy transition. Attention now turns to the June 30 deadline for the US Commerce Secretary to deliver an update on the domestic copper market, a review that could pave the way for import duties from January 2027.

Fixed Income

US Treasuries sold off and yields backed up on a fresh surge in crude oil prices as US military actions against Iranian targets cast doubt on the status of peace talks. The benchmark 2-year Treasury yield jumped four basis points after yesterday’s close to 4.07% while the benchmark 10-year yield likewise rose four basis points to 4.52%, with 4.50% clearly a psychologically important area for that benchmark. The US treasury is set to auction 7-year notes later Thursday.
Japan’s government bond yields fell at the shorter end of the curve despite the pressure on US treasuries as it emerged that Japan’s government will seek to use “bridging bonds” to finance any supplemental budget initiatives from the Takaichi government. The benchmark 2-year JGB yield fell more than three basis points toward 1.355% and near the lowest level in over a month. The benchmark 10-year JGB was slightly steadier, only about a basis point lower and near 2.69%. Bridging bonds are issued on the logic that they will only temporarily have to cover funding shortfalls, awaiting future revenue sources to pay them back and receive a different classification from standard JGBs.

Currencies

The US dollar rose in knee-jerk fashion on the jump in crude oil prices and US treasury yields. EURUSD dipped below 1.1600 for the first time since last week after trading as high as 1.1661 on Wednesday. Focus there on the range low just below 1.1580. GBPUSD dipped south of 1.3400 and to a Thursday session low in late Asian trading hours at 1.3368 before bouncing.
As USDJPY creeps higher toward the psychologically significant 160.00 level, above which Japan’s Ministry of Finance moved with massive intervention to prevent further JPY weakening, traders await the official data on how much the MoF has intervened, set for release on Friday.
The AUDNZD selloff extended aggressively late Wednesday after a more hawkish than expected RBNZ meeting that supported NZD, while the AUD weakness was likely aggravated by fresh weakness in metals prices. In early hours Thursday, the pair hit a low of 1.2066 before bouncing back above 1.2100. This after trading as high as 1.2288 just before the RBNZ announcement.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

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Topics: Macro Advanced orders Europe Employment United States United Kingdom European Union (EU) XAUUSD USD EURUSD USDJPY Energy (Sector) Technology S P 500 index Quick Take Weekly Newsletter

Memory mania or just catching up with fundamentals?

Wed, 27 May 2026 13:26:00 Z

Memory stocks are on fire, Ferrari not so much.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.

(and yes, pardon the bad math in the podcast on how far the aggressive S&P 500 target discussed is from the current price!)

Today’s Links

Michael McNair with a TLDR post on Sirius XM, the financially profitable, but stagnating broadcast media (from space) company, who might be an acquisition target from a deep-pocketed suitor, he proposes, due to its possession of a fat chunk of the radio broadcast spectrum. More below in today’s Chart of the Day.

Don’t know to what degree Chinese manufacturers can make inroads into the big three RAM memory chip makers (Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix) but Tom’s Hardware has noted that Chinese chips are finally showing up in mainstream RAM memory modules for the first time. These chips are not suitable for the highest end modules, but could bring relief to PC suppliers or at least self-building enthusiasts if the prices move lower as well.

“You know when you’re at a Kiwi BBQ when someone brings up house prices before the sausages are cooked”. New Zealand has been one of those small open economies plagued by extreme moves in house prices going back to the post-GFC extremely low interest rate era. This article from Bloomberg mostly discusses the pandemic era pump in prices from lowered rates and the subsequent bust, with policy makers struggling for the right policy to deal with the problem. Canada has seen a similar struggle and the US market is frozen, without yet seeing broad-based declines, but likely only a small recession away from being stuck in the same boat.

Jeffrey Currie weighs in on the risks the hyperscalers are running by taking such a capital-intensive approach to trying to grow their businesses, comparing the approach of John Rockefeller and Standard Oil - Currie points out that you have to own the chokepoints (right Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix, oh and Western Digital and Seagate? - at least for now.)

Who to believe on the Hormuz Strait? Jeffrey Currie the vaunted commodity strategist continues to bemoan the lack of opening and the risks, saying “sell the tweet [Trump social media posts], buy the molecule [oil]”, while James E. Thorne says that with every day that passes, Iran ‘s power is eroded as supply chains shift away from allowing the Strait to continue to so viciously constrict supply reaching market and boosting output elsewhere (especially US output).

What will the Warsh Fed be about? Certainly not tightening policy, according to James E. Thorne, who suggests a battle will be afoot for the new Fed Chair relative to Wall Street expectations and others on the Fed board.

AI Bears versus AI Bulls. Hedgie with a post on X discussing Uber’s experience with encouraging AI use, only to discover that heavy token usage with Claude Code is not seeing a productivity boost or more useful software shipping. Is it just too early days or is there simply too much compute required to drive meaningful productivity growth for larger scale organizations? And then we have James E. Thorne again waxing optimistic on the ability for an AI super-cycle to deliver massive continuing profit growth far superior to current expectations and possibly taking the S&P 500 to 14,000-16,000 by 2021.

Cem Karsan puts in an appearance on the Thoughtful Money podcast, talking long term expected return outlook when we already sit atop high valuations and a strong market. Good long term perspective and he talks ways to position for coming risks (these I have not yet listened to).

Chart of the Day - Are you Sirius?
Not a company I have thought about in a long while, but the TLDR post from Michael McNair on the company as a potential target for those looking to buy it chiefly for its ownership of fat chunk of broadcasting spectrum far more than for its media business is an interesting one. The market may have gotten the memo recently as the stock price has picked up 50% or so from recent lows. Time will tell if this company becomes an acquisition target and, if so, at what price - it sells at 8-9 times earnings, yielding around 3.5% at current prices with no topline growth for years. The monster jump in late 2024 was on the culmination of Warren Buffett’s move to acquire a chunk of the company (revealed at 31% after he had been buying the company and the associated Liberty Media for quite some time) and the more recent surge might be on enthusiasm for all things space-related as we head toward SpaceX’s IPO soon. The company came from a near death experience in 2009, when its share traded hands for as little as 50 cents a share - down from as high as 89 dollars a share in 2004 (which was up from a low of under 4 dollars a share in 2003, down in turn from the all-time high in 2000 of…656 dollars a share). This is not an investment recommendation.

Source: Saxo

Questions and comments, please!

Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank

Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex

Options Brief - Nasdaq clears 30,000 - 27 May 2026

Wed, 27 May 2026 11:00:00 Z

The Nasdaq 100 closed above 30,000 for the first time ever yesterday, driven by Micron Technology’s 19% single-session surge after earnings that beat consensus EPS by 41%. Heading into Wednesday, European markets were down over 1%, US futures sit near flat, and the vol surface is telling an interesting story: VIX is calm at 17, but SKEW has climbed to 139.

Options Brief – Nasdaq clears 30,000 – 27 May 2026

The Nasdaq 100 crossed 30,000 for the first time as Micron’s earnings confirmed the AI cycle has real numbers behind it – and the vol surface is quietly telling a more cautious story beneath the surface calm.

Tuesday, 26 May 2026 delivered a split session: technology stocks surged to record highs on the back of Micron Technology’s exceptional earnings beat, while cyclicals and energy lagged as Iran deal optimism took crude lower. Heading into Wednesday, European markets are selling off over 1%, US futures sit near flat, and the vol surface is showing an increasingly interesting divergence between headline implied vol and the cost of tail protection.

Headline driver

Micron Technology jumped 19% on Tuesday after reporting fiscal Q3 earnings that crushed consensus by a wide margin (EPS $12.20 vs $8.65 expected; operating margin expanding from 22% to 67.6%), crossing the $1 trillion market cap threshold and pulling the Nasdaq 100 above 30,000 for the first time. Separately, President Trump signalled the US is in the “final stages” of a deal with Iran, removing part of the geopolitical risk premium that has been embedded in crude prices.

Market snapshot

The Nasdaq 100 gained 1.76% to close at 30,001, a record and the index’s first close above that level. The S&P 500 added 0.61% to 7,519, also a record close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.23% to 50,467, as cyclicals and energy lagged while tech led. The Russell 2000 rose 1.79% to 2,921, a quietly strong session for small caps. WTI crude fell roughly 2.10% toward $92 as Iran deal optimism reduced the conflict premium built into energy prices.

Options angle

VIX closed at 16.59 on Tuesday, confirming the Low Vol Bull regime that has been in place for most of the past month. The gap between implied and realised volatility remains unusually wide: 20-day realised vol sits at 10.5% annualised against implied vol near 17%, a spread that has historically favoured premium sellers. That said, SKEW rose to 139.04 even as the market hit records, signalling a quiet but persistent bid for downside tail protection. The two readings together are worth noting: headline vol is calm, but the left tail is getting more expensive on a relative basis.

DSPX, the S&P 500 dispersion index, jumped 8.99% on Tuesday, the Micron gap being the most visible driver. With single stocks moving far more than the index, implied correlation between constituents is falling. Front-month VIX futures settled at 18.70, approximately 1.70 points above spot, with the term structure holding normal contango into the second month at 20.55.

Strategy insight – What SKEW is actually telling you about downside protection costs. VIX measures the average cost of options across all strikes, but SKEW measures something narrower: how much more expensive deep out-of-the-money puts are relative to at-the-money options. A SKEW reading of 139 is elevated, and it means the market is paying a meaningful premium for tail protection even in a low-vol environment. In practical terms, this shows up in any structure that sells OTM puts: the strike is further in-the-money in terms of premium than the headline VIX number would suggest. This is why a low-VIX/high-SKEW combination is not the same as a uniformly cheap-protection environment. The vol surface has a shape, and right now that shape is skewed left.
The principal risk is that SKEW can normalise quickly once sentiment shifts, compressing that tail premium and reducing the edge in structures built around it.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.

Strategy insight – Using a bull call spread to express a post-gap continuation thesis. After a 19% single-session gap, chasing Micron by buying shares or simple long calls carries a double burden: an elevated entry price and inflated implied volatility on the options. A bull call spread – buying a call at or slightly above the current price and selling a higher-strike call at the anticipated resistance level – addresses both problems simultaneously. The short call in the spread sells back some of the elevated IV, reducing the net premium paid and lowering the trade’s break-even relative to a single long call. The trade defines maximum loss at the premium paid, expresses a specific upside target rather than open-ended bullish conviction, and benefits if the AI momentum thesis continues at a measured pace rather than in another single-day surge.
The primary risk is losing the full net debit paid if the stock fails to reach the long strike by expiry – post-earnings gaps can and do partially reverse, particularly when the broader sector narrative cools.

Conclusion

Tuesday’s session confirmed that the AI earnings cycle has real numbers behind it, not just narrative. Heading into Wednesday, European markets are underperforming (Euro Stoxx 50 down 1.18%, DAX down 0.80%) while US futures sit near flat. VIX is ticking up slightly to 17.01, SKEW continues to climb, and the vol risk premium remains wide. The regime still favours the premium seller, but the rising tail skew is worth tracking: this market is not complacent at the bottom of the vol surface, even if the headline VIX number suggests otherwise.

Related articles/content
Options Brief - Hormuz hopes douse oil - 26 May 2026 Options Brief Nvidia beats KOSPI surges 21 May 2026 Options Brief - All eyes on NVDA - 20 May 2026 Options Brief - Bond rout chips down - 19 May 2026 Options Brief - AI rally summit day two - 15 May 2026 Options Brief - CPI spike Iran deal fades - 13 May 2026 Options Brief - Summit stakes oil surge - 12 May 2026 Options Brief - Jobs beat oil surge - 11 May 2026

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More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

London Quick Take - Wednesday - UK stocks lag as oil majors weigh down the index

Wed, 27 May 2026 10:53:00 Z

Note: This is marketing material. This article is not investment advice, capital is at risk.

UK

FTSE 100

UK gains are lagging Europe due to a lack of tech exposure, as chipmakers rally on optimism spilling over from Asian markets. Chipmakers SK Hynix and Micron have surged towards a $1 trillion market cap milestone, while semiconductor names such as ASML and Infineon are among the biggest contributors to Euro Stoxx 50 gains. Meanwhile, oil majors BP and Shell are weighing on the UK index following a drop in oil prices.

BP

BP fired Chairman Albert Manifold yesterday after just eight months in the role, citing “governance oversight and conduct issues,” which Manifold says was done without warning. The move reintroduces uncertainty at the oil major, coming shortly after the appointment of Carol Howle as CEO and following BP’s strategic shift last year away from renewables and back towards oil and gas.

Energy Prices

Ofgem, the UK energy regulator, has raised the energy price cap by 13% to £1,862 per year from July, driven by wholesale gas prices rising 45% since the start of the US–Iran conflict. The £221 increase is the largest in two years. If the Strait of Hormuz reopens, energy prices could fall, potentially limiting further upside in bills. The higher cap will add to inflationary pressure, though with signs of a slowdown in the UK economy, second‑round effects may be more limited.

UK Consumer Data

UK grocery inflation eased to 3.1% in the four weeks to 17 May, the slowest pace since December 2024, according to Worldpanel by Numerator. The data provides an early indication of food pricing pressures ahead of official UK inflation figures due on 17 June. Worldpanel also found that 30.3% of sales were on promotion over the period, helping consumers save money.

Politics

Tony Blair criticised the Labour Party in an essay for his think tank, the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, warning it was “playing with fire”. He called for a shift in policy, including cutting welfare spending and prioritising economic growth.

Gilts

10‑year gilt yields have fallen to 4.82% from a peak of 5.17% in mid‑May 2026, with the recent pullback reflecting easing political uncertainty and reduced expectations of a Bank of England rate hike.

US

Equities

After the US close today, Salesforce (exp. EPS $3.12 for Q1) and HP Inc. (exp. EPS $0.71 for Q2) will report earnings.

Commodities

Oil

Oil prices are down today, despite the strikes, as both sides appear closer to a peace deal.

Gold

Gold eased today as the U.S.–Iran war sustains inflation concerns and keeps the prospect of interest rate hikes in focus. ECB board member Isabel Schnabel indicated yesterday that a rate hike may be needed, citing energy price pressures spilling into the broader economy, while expectations also increased for the Federal Reserve to hike rates. Higher interest rates tend to weigh on gold, as they increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset versus interest-bearing alternatives such as bonds.

Saxo

Topics: Equities United Kingdom Highlighted articles UKMustRead UK Generic Disclaimer FR US Actualites et Analyses Trump Version 2 - Investors Volatility investor TagFeed En hurtig tanke

Market Quick Take - 27 May 2026

Wed, 27 May 2026 06:54:00 Z

Market Quick Take – 27 May 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

Equities: U.S. and Asia rode the AI chip wave higher, while Europe slipped as oil and geopolitics re-entered the chat.
Volatility: VIX contained, mild downside skew, SPX records, PCE ahead, oil and Middle East in focus, selective hedging remains active
Digital Assets: Bitcoin softer, Ether stable, ETF outflows persist
Fixed Income: US treasury yields lower still as crude oil prices drop
Currencies: Majors sluggish with JPY weakest. NZD bolts higher on hawkish RBNZ
Commodities: Oil steady as markets await Middle East developments, gold trapped in narrowing range
Macro events: US Weekly ADP payrolls, US Treasury to auction 5-year notes

Macro headlines

Crude oil held steady with the US touting progress toward a peace deal with Iran, despite fresh hostilities and uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz, and the timing of an eventual reopening. One contentious issue under discussion is Iran’s $24 billion in frozen assets, with Tehran wanting half that amount released upon the signing of an agreement. In addition, Tehran’s reluctance to allow ships free passage through the strait and Trump's desire for Iran to commit to handing over or destroying its stocks of highly enriched uranium.
Hawkish hold from the RBNZ. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept its Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.25% as expected, but an evenly split vote only decided by Governor Breman’s vote in favour of no change avoided a hike. The guidance and forecast adjustments from the RBNZ meeting were more hawkish than anticipated, sending the New Zealand dollar sharply higher. The market now anticipates a hike at the July RBNZ meeting after the bank said that the key policy rate will most likely need to rise more and sooner than previously anticipated.
Korean memory chip maker SK Hynix rose more than 12% on Wednesday, taking the company’s valuation north of USD 1 trillion. The massive demand for memory chips has allowed the few manufacturers in this space to enjoy unprecedented margins. Despite the advance in the share price year-to-date of more than 250%, the forward P/E of the company is only slightly more than 8.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

· 1215 – US Weekly ADP Employment Change (four weeks ending May 9)
· 1400 – US May Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
· 1430 – US May Dallas Fed Services Activity
· 1700 – US Treasury to auction 5-year notes
· 2010 – New Zealand Governor before parliamentary committee

Earnings events

Wednesday: Marvell Technology, Salesforce, Synopsys, Snowflake, Agilent Technologies
Thursday: Dell Technologies, Autodesk, Netapp

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.2% to fresh record closes, while the Dow slipped 0.2%. The session was led by artificial intelligence and semiconductor optimism, with Micron jumping 19.3% after UBS raised its price target and investors priced in stronger memory-chip demand. Qualcomm rose 4.5% on reports of a ByteDance AI chip deal, while Marvell gained 6.1% ahead of results as custom-chip and networking demand stayed in focus. Nvidia dipped 0.2%, showing the rally broadened beyond the usual AI scoreboard.
Europe: The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.6% to 628.01, while Germany’s DAX lost 0.8% and France’s CAC 40 dropped 1.0%. London’s FTSE 100 rose 0.2% after the UK holiday, but the tone across Europe softened as renewed Middle East tensions lifted oil and reduced hopes for a quick peace deal. BP fell 4.0% after the sudden removal of its chair raised fresh governance concerns, while Ferrari dropped after investors gave a cold reception to its first fully electric model. Markets now watch oil, rates and whether Europe’s recent rally can digest geopolitics without indigestion.
Asia: Asian equities rose, led by the semiconductor supply chain. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 1.3% to a record close, South Korea’s Kospi surged 4.9% to an all-time high, and Taiwan’s Taiex climbed 2.7%. SK Hynix jumped nearly 15% as it joined the $1 trillion market-value club on AI memory demand, while Samsung Electronics rose 7.0% after workers approved a pay deal and strike risk eased. Tokyo Electron gained 5.9% and Advantest rose 5.7%, tracking the U.S. chip rally. The next test is whether memory excitement turns into earnings, not just fireworks.

Volatility

Volatility remained relatively contained despite a busy macro and geopolitical backdrop. The VIX closed at 17.01 on Tuesday, up 2.53%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.61% to close at 7,519.12, suggesting investors are still viewing Middle East developments as manageable rather than systemic market risks. Markets continue to monitor US-Iran ceasefire discussions, oil price movements and Thursday’s US macro releases, including core PCE inflation, GDP, durable goods orders and jobless claims. Earnings from Marvell, Salesforce, Synopsys and Snowflake may also keep single-stock volatility elevated through the week.
Based on current SPX options pricing, the market is implying a move of roughly 70 points, or 0.93%, through Friday’s expiry.
For today’s expiry, the options chain showed a mild downside skew: the at-the-money 7,520 call and put traded near 18.7 points, while nearby downside puts continued to price slightly richer than comparable upside calls. That points to cautious positioning rather than outright fear, with investors still willing to pay a premium for short-term protection.

Digital Assets

Digital assets traded softer but remained orderly. Bitcoin hovered near USD 75,600, Ether near USD 2,075, Solana around USD 84, while XRP and Dogecoin also drifted lower as investors reacted to renewed US-Iran tensions, softer ETF flows and the approaching US inflation data later this week. IBIT traded near USD 43, while ETHA held near USD 15.6, with both ETFs remaining key institutional sentiment gauges for the broader crypto market.
The ETF flow backdrop remains fragile. Recent spot Bitcoin ETF outflows suggest investors are trimming exposure rather than adding aggressively, while spot Ether ETFs also continued to see moderate redemptions. At the same time, crypto-linked equities and options flows painted a more constructive picture beneath the surface. IREN, CORZ and IBIT all saw notable upside call activity, indicating continued appetite for defined-risk upside exposure, while MSTR, COIN and CRCL still attracted protective put positioning. For longer-term investors, the message remains balanced: crypto is not seeing panic selling, but sustained upside likely still requires stronger ETF inflows and a calmer macro environment.

Fixed Income

US Treasury yields continued to drop on hopes that the US and Iran can reach a more durable ceasefire agreement. The benchmark US 2-year treasury yield fell nine basis points Tuesday to 4.03% and dropped another basis point in overnight trading into early Wednesday hours. The benchmark 10-year yield fell some eight basis points to below 4.49% on Tuesday and traded near 4.47% early Wednesday in European hours.
Japan’s shorter-dated bonds rallied again on lower crude oil prices. The benchmark 2-year JGB yield fell another basis point and to below 1.40% for the first time in almost two weeks. At the longer end of the curve, yields were almost unchanged.

Commodities

Crude oil held steady as traders continued to price in a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz amid US claims of progress toward a peace deal with Iran, despite renewed hostilities and multiple unresolved uncertainties, not least the strait itself, which remains effectively shut. A surge in US exports, a slump in Chinese imports, SPR releases, and signs of demand destruction have together helped prevent prices from moving significantly higher in recent weeks. Even if a deal is reached, market normalization is likely to take months, with ongoing demand for replacement barrels and depleted inventories potentially leading to a higher price floor than the one seen before the war.
Gold fell alongside US bond yields on Tuesday as the prospect of a Middle East peace deal weighed on oil prices, thereby easing inflation concerns. In addition, a powerful global equity rally, led by chipmakers, has reduced near-term demand for defensive assets such as gold. Overall, bullion remains stuck near USD 4,500, trading within a narrowing range currently bounded by its 200-day moving average at USD 4,390 and its 50-day moving average at USD 4,638. A shift away from oil-driven macro dynamics may be needed to attract renewed investor interest and break the metal out of its current range.

Currencies

The major currencies traded another day in sluggish fashion, with the US dollar little changed in broad terms. EURUSD has lifted slightly, but is still below the local high near 1.1650, while GBPUSD corrected a bit lower toward 1.3450 after testing above 1.3500 at the start of the week. USDJPY remained elevated near the top of the recent range, trading near 159.30.
The New Zealand dollar lifted aggressively on the RBNZ “hawkish hold” (see above). AUDNZD was pummelled back below 1.2200 and to 1.2180 after trading as high as 1.2288 just before the RBNZ announcement as the market absorbed the more hawkish guidance.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

Saxo Bank

Topics: Macro Advanced orders Europe Employment United States United Kingdom European Union (EU) XAUUSD USD EURUSD USDJPY Energy (Sector) Technology S P 500 index Quick Take Weekly Newsletter

Options Brief - Hormuz hopes douse oil - 26 May 2026

Tue, 26 May 2026 11:14:00 Z

Oil dropped 5% on Monday while US markets were closed for Memorial Day - and European stocks hit a two-month high. The driver: progress in US-Iran ceasefire talks and growing expectations that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen.

Options Brief – Hormuz hopes douse oil – 26 May 2026

US-Iran ceasefire talks send oil lower and European equities to two-month highs as US markets reopen after Memorial Day.

Progress in US-Iran ceasefire talks over the weekend, centred on a potential agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, sent WTI crude oil futures down roughly 5% on Monday and lifted European equities to their highest level since early March. US markets were closed for Memorial Day; futures are pointing higher as Tuesday’s session opens.

Market snapshot

S&P 500: 7,473.47 (Friday 23 May close, +0.37%); futures up 0.65% at time of writing.
Nasdaq 100: 29,481.64 (Friday close, +0.42%); futures up 0.85%.
STOXX 600: 631.64 (Monday close, +1.04%), highest level since early March; DAX +2.01%, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.95%; FTSE 100 down 0.64% as UK energy exposure weighed.
WTI crude oil: approx. 91.76 at time of writing, down roughly 5% on Monday as the Hormuz supply-relief trade drove airlines and banks sharply higher across Europe.
Market regime: Low vol bull – VIX 16.59, 20-day realised vol 10.4% (decreasing), S&P 500 +6.95% above its 50-day moving average.

Options angle

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) sits at 16.59, comfortably below the 18 threshold that separates low-vol from elevated regimes. Front-month VIX futures at 18.95 and second-month at 20.71 suggest the market views the current calm as temporary, though that contango is not unusual for this vol regime. More telling are two other readings: the CBOE SKEW index, which measures the premium investors pay for out-of-the-money downside protection relative to equivalent upside exposure, sits at 137.39, and the CBOE total put/call ratio (PCC) surged 44% on Monday to 1.209, one of the larger single-session hedging spikes seen alongside a simultaneously rising equity market. Realised vol over the past 20 days is running at 10.4% – well below where implied vol is pricing. Spot vol is low. Institutional desks are not acting like it will stay that way.

Strategy insight – Bullish risk reversal, using SKEW to tilt the cost structure. The CBOE SKEW index at 137.39 means out-of-the-money puts are priced with a significant premium over equivalent out-of-the-money calls – an asymmetry that can be put to work directionally. A bullish risk reversal sells an out-of-the-money put, collecting elevated premium due to SKEW, and uses the proceeds to buy an out-of-the-money call, typically at low or zero net cost. With futures pointing higher and the Hormuz trade constructive at the open, the structure gives participation in continued upside without paying a large net debit. The main risk is the short put: if sentiment reverses sharply – a breakdown in negotiations, an oil spike – losses on the downside leg can be substantial and are not capped.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.

Strategy insight – Long straddle on energy, playing the binary Hormuz outcome. WTI crude oil is down roughly 5% on Hormuz optimism, but the deal is not closed – officials on both sides continue to send mixed signals, and a breakdown would send oil sharply in the opposite direction. When the direction of a large move is genuinely uncertain but a large move itself is plausible, a long straddle – buying both an at-the-money call and an at-the-money put on an energy instrument – captures the payoff regardless of which way it resolves. The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE), which tracks the major US energy companies, is a liquid and accessible vehicle for this structure. If implied vol in energy options has not yet fully repriced to reflect the binary outcome, the straddle may still be acquirable at a reasonable cost relative to the expected move. The position loses if oil and energy stocks stay near current levels through expiry, in which case time decay erodes the full premium paid.

Conclusion

The Hormuz trade is running the session: oil lower, European stocks at two-month highs, and US futures pointing up into the reopening. Beneath the surface, elevated SKEW and Monday’s put/call surge both point in the same direction – institutional money is hedging, even as it rides the rally. For an options trader, Tuesday’s setup supports two complementary positions: a risk reversal to participate in the upside at low cost, and an energy straddle to hold exposure to the Hormuz binary, with any signal from Tehran as the key watch point.

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Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Oil, chips and tanks: the portfolio lesson hiding in plain sight

Tue, 26 May 2026 11:00:00 Z

Key takeaways

Investors could think about diversifying by risk type, not only by asset class.
Oil, artificial intelligence and defence expose portfolios to very different shocks.
The goal is not prediction, but building a portfolio that can survive surprise.

Markets have a habit of teaching the same lesson in different costumes. Sometimes the teacher arrives as an oil price shock. Sometimes it wears a hoodie and calls itself artificial intelligence. Sometimes it turns up in uniform, carrying a defence budget.

The common thread is simple. Investors often think diversification means owning stocks, bonds and maybe some cash. That still matters. But today’s market is also shaped by different kinds of risk: energy shock risk, valuation risk, technology risk, geopolitical risk and interest-rate risk. They do not all behave the same way. Some bite. Some scratch. Some quietly chew through returns while everyone is looking elsewhere.

That is why oil, artificial intelligence (AI) and defence belong in the same conversation. They look like separate stories. In a portfolio, they are linked by one question: what type of risk are you really taking?

Source: Saxo Bank analysis. For illustrative purposes only. This is a simplified framework and does not represent investment advice.

Same market, different shocks

Oil is the clearest example of physical-world risk. When energy prices rise sharply, the effect spreads beyond oil producers. Transport becomes more expensive. Airlines feel pressure. Chemical companies face higher input costs. Consumers have less money left after filling the car or paying heating bills. Inflation can become stickier, which may keep interest rates higher for longer.

This is why markets react so strongly to Middle East headlines. The price of oil is not just a commodity number on a screen. It is a tax on the real economy when it rises too far, too fast. It can help energy companies, but hurt companies that depend on cheap fuel, smooth logistics or confident consumers.

AI risk is different. It is not mainly about scarcity today. It is about expectations tomorrow. Investors have rewarded companies seen as winners from AI infrastructure, chips, data centres and cloud computing. But that creates another risk: the market may start asking when huge spending turns into visible profits.

That spending is not small. Big technology companies are committing vast sums to data centres, chips and power-hungry infrastructure. Capital expenditure, meaning money spent on long-term assets, has become a central part of the AI story. Investors like growth. They like it slightly less when growth arrives with a bill the size of a small moon.

Defence brings a third type of risk: political and geopolitical risk. Europe’s renewed focus on military readiness is not just a short-term reaction to headlines. It reflects a broader shift in security thinking. Governments want more air defence, drones, ammunition, satellites, cyber protection and production capacity. This can support defence companies, but it also depends on public budgets, political priorities and delivery timelines.

Put simply, oil tests the cost side of the economy. AI tests expectations and valuations. Defence tests political commitment and industrial capacity.

Why asset class diversification is not enough

A portfolio with stocks and bonds can still be concentrated in one type of risk.

For example, many global equity portfolios are heavily exposed to large US technology companies. That can be fine, but it means investors may carry more AI and valuation risk than they realise. Adding a bond fund may reduce some equity volatility, but it does not directly answer whether the investor is too exposed to one technology cycle.

Likewise, an investor may own European equities and think they are regionally diversified, while holding many companies that depend on low energy prices. That portfolio could still be vulnerable to an oil shock.

Defence exposure can create another illusion. Defence stocks may look defensive because governments buy the products. But if valuations already reflect years of higher spending, the investment risk changes. The theme may be sound, while the entry price becomes less forgiving. That is not a contradiction. It is investing, where two things can be true and still annoy everyone.

The lesson is to map risks, not just labels. A global equity fund, an energy stock, a defence stock and an AI chip supplier are all “equities”. But they do not respond to the same forces. One may like higher oil prices. One may suffer from them. One may depend on government budgets. One may depend on cloud companies continuing to spend aggressively.

The better question is not “How many asset classes do I own?” It is “What could hurt my portfolio, and do I own anything that behaves differently if that happens?”

The industry message is broader than markets

These three themes also show how the real economy is changing. Energy security is back. Computing power is becoming strategic infrastructure. Defence supply chains are being rebuilt after years of lean inventories and underinvestment.

That matters because markets are no longer only pricing earnings next quarter. They are pricing access to scarce things: reliable energy, advanced chips, electrical power, skilled labour, military production lines and trusted supply chains.

For long-term investors, this shifts the focus from chasing the hottest theme to understanding bottlenecks. In AI, the bottlenecks include chips, data-centre power, cooling and grid access. In defence, they include production capacity, procurement speed and skilled manufacturing. In energy, they include shipping routes, spare capacity and political stability.

A good portfolio does not need to predict every bottleneck. It needs to avoid being fragile to just one version of the future.

Risks to keep on the radar

The first risk is overconfidence. A strong theme can still be a poor investment if the price already assumes perfection. This is especially relevant in AI and defence, where long-term demand may be real but valuations can move faster than reality.

The second risk is policy reversal. Defence budgets can rise, but elections, deficits and procurement delays still matter. Investors should watch whether government promises turn into signed orders and delivered systems.

The third risk is inflation returning through energy. If oil prices stay high, central banks may have less room to cut interest rates. That could pressure long-duration growth stocks, which are companies valued heavily on profits expected far in the future.

Investor playbook: diversify the risks, not just the boxes

Check whether your portfolio depends too much on one theme, region or interest-rate outcome.
Separate “good story” from “good price”. A theme can be right and still overpriced.
Look for different return drivers: cash flows, dividends, pricing power, contracts and balance-sheet strength.
Use scenarios. Ask what happens if oil rises, AI spending slows or defence budgets are delayed.

The map is not the territory

Oil, AI and defence look like three separate headlines. In a portfolio, they are three reminders that risk comes in different shapes. Some risks come from geopolitics. Some from valuation. Some from supply chains, interest rates or government policy. The point is not to own a little of every fashionable theme. That is not diversification. That is collecting market souvenirs.

The better habit is to understand what each holding is meant to do, what could go wrong, and whether the rest of the portfolio can absorb the shock. A resilient portfolio is not one that predicts the next headline. It is one that does not need every headline to be friendly.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The author does not hold any position in the financial instruments mentioned at the time of publication.

Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Saxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles Theme - Defence UKMustRead

From shareholder to options user

Tue, 26 May 2026 06:30:00 Z

From shareholder to options user

How long-term investors can use covered calls and cash-secured puts to make portfolio decisions more deliberate

Key takeaways

For many long-term investors, options can seem like a different world. They are often associated with speculation, leverage, and fast trading. That image is not completely unfair, but it is also incomplete.

Used carefully, some options strategies can help shareholders make clearer decisions around shares they already own or would be willing to buy. Two of the simplest examples are covered calls and cash-secured puts.

A covered call can help an investor receive premium on shares they already own. A cash-secured put can help an investor receive premium while waiting to buy shares at a lower price. Neither strategy removes risk. Both require the investor to accept a clear obligation.

The move from shareholder to options user is therefore not about becoming more aggressive. It is about becoming more deliberate.

Why options can feel unfamiliar

Most investors understand shares. You buy part of a company, accept that the price will move up and down, and hope the value rises over time.

Options are different. They are contracts linked to shares, with a fixed expiry date and a fixed price called the strike price. They also involve a premium, which is the money paid or received for the option.

For long-term investors, options can help define future decisions: the price where you may be willing to sell, buy, or take risk.

Shares answer the question: “What do I want to own?” Options add a second question: “At what price am I willing to act?”

Start with shares you already understand

The safest starting point is not a random options trade. It is a share you already know well.

If you own 100 shares of a company, you may be able to sell a covered call. This means selling a call option against shares you already hold in exchange for premium upfront.

Because you already own the shares, the call is “covered”. That does not make the strategy risk-free, but it means the obligation is linked to shares already in your portfolio.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it's crucial to make informed decisions.

Covered calls: setting a possible sale price

Imagine you own 100 shares of a company trading at EUR 50. You like the company, but you would be comfortable selling if the share price reached EUR 55.

You sell a call option with a EUR 55 strike price and receive EUR 1 per share. Because one standard equity option contract usually represents 100 shares, that means you receive EUR 100 before costs.

There are three broad outcomes at expiry.

Covered call outcomes depend on where the share price is at expiry

Share price at expiry	What happens	What it means for the investor
Below EUR 55	The call expires worthless	You keep the shares and the EUR 100 premium before costs
Above EUR 55	You may have to sell at EUR 55	You keep the premium, but your upside above EUR 55 is capped
Well below EUR 50	You keep the premium, but the shares fall	The premium softens the fall, but does not remove share price risk

This is the main trade-off. A covered call does not remove the risk of owning shares. It exchanges some future upside for premium today.

If the share price rises above the strike price, your shares may be called away. If you no longer want to sell, you may be able to buy back the option or roll it to a later expiry and higher strike, but that can cost money and add complexity.

For long-term investors, the rule is simple: only sell a covered call at a price where you would be comfortable selling the shares.

Cash-secured puts: setting a possible purchase price

A cash-secured put starts from the opposite situation. Instead of already owning the shares, you would like to buy them at a lower price.

Imagine a share is trading at EUR 50. You like the company, but you would rather buy at EUR 45. You sell a put option with a EUR 45 strike price and receive EUR 1 per share, or EUR 100 before costs.

A put option gives the buyer the right to sell shares to you at the strike price. By selling the put, you accept the obligation to buy 100 shares at EUR 45 if assigned. Because the put is cash-secured, you keep enough cash available to pay for those shares.

Again, there are three broad outcomes.

Cash-secured puts can help investors define a possible entry price, but the buying obligation remains

Share price at expiry	What happens	What it means for the investor
Above EUR 45	The put expires worthless	You keep the EUR 100 premium before costs
Below EUR 45	You may have to buy 100 shares at EUR 45	Your effective purchase price is EUR 44 before costs
Well below EUR 45	You still may have to buy at EUR 45	You face losses like any investor who buys shares above the market price

A cash-secured put can be useful if you already want to own the shares. It is not a safe way to collect income on a company you would never want to buy.

The important mindset shift

The most useful options users are not necessarily the most aggressive investors. Often, they are the most disciplined.

Covered calls and cash-secured puts force investors to define decisions earlier: what price they would sell at, what price they would buy at, and what risks they are willing to accept.

That is where options can support a long-term investment approach. They can help investors make decisions before emotions take over.

A simple checklist before using options

Before placing a first options trade, the investor should be able to answer these questions clearly:

Do I understand the share or ETF behind the option?
Am I comfortable owning at least 100 shares?
For a covered call, am I comfortable selling 100 shares at the strike price?
For a cash-secured put, do I have enough cash to buy 100 shares if assigned?
Do I understand the expiry date?
Do I understand the premium, the obligation, and the worst-case outcome?
Is the premium worth the risk and the possible loss of flexibility?

If the answer to any of these questions is unclear, the trade is not ready. That is not a failure. It is risk management doing its job.

The bottom line

Moving from shareholder to options user does not mean abandoning a long-term mindset. Done carefully, it can mean adding structure around shares you already understand.

Covered calls can help investors receive premium while setting a possible sale price. Cash-secured puts can help investors receive premium while setting a possible purchase price. Both strategies can be useful, but only when the investor understands the obligation.

The premium is never free money. It is compensation for accepting a trade-off.

For long-term investors, that is the right way to think about options. Not as shortcuts. Not as speculation dressed up as income. But as tools that can make portfolio decisions clearer, more disciplined, and easier to plan before the market tests your patience.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.

Educational Resources
Position management for covered calls and cash-secured puts Understanding the covered call option strategy Understanding the poor mans covered call Understanding the option collar strategy Understanding the naked put option strategy How put options work Understanding the protective put option strategy Guide on long-term options for strategic portfolio management Assignment explained - 01 - what every options trader and investor should know Assignment explained - 02 - how to avoid assignment Assignment explained - 03 - how to use option assignment to your advantage Assignment explained - 04 - option assignment cheat sheet

Educational Resources

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More from the author
Koen Hoorelbeke's articles on Saxo Follow and interact with me on X (Twitter) for more intraday content

Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Saxo Bank

Market Quick Take - 26 May 2026

Tue, 26 May 2026 06:22:00 Z

Market Quick Take – 26 May 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

Equities: US was holiday-quiet, Europe rallied on lower oil, while Asia was mixed as peace hopes met fresh caution.
Volatility: Nvidia beats but reaction muted, KOSPI extends rally, oil rebounds, PCE and GDP ahead, downside hedging remains active
Digital Assets: Bitcoin stabilises, ETF caution persists, Nasdaq crypto options approved, selective bullish positioning, hedged sentiment
Fixed Income: Yields steady after Monday plunge with focus on crude oil prices
Currencies: US pulls back on bounce in crude oil prices in sluggish trading
Commodities: Oil rebound, gold falls as peace remains illusive
Macro events: US May Conference Board Consumer Confidence

Macro headlines

Positioned as a “self defense” operation, US forces struck missile launch sites in Southern Iran and boats that the US claimed were laying mines, while still touting that US-Iran peace talks continued to extend a cease-fire for another 60 days. This threw some doubt on the status of the talks after President Trump made comments suggesting a deal is nearing at the weekend.
Iran is reportedly seeking guarantees from China before proceeding, even as US and Israeli aircraft are said to have struck Iranian vessels near Larak Island and Israel signals it will step up attacks on Hezbollah.
In Japan, Prime Minister Takaichi plans to fund an extra budget without increasing bond issuance on a calendar-year basis, while a former major trading-house chief warns of a possible shortage of naphtha-derived chemicals by late June.
Russia is urging the US to evacuate its citizens from Ukraine’s capital Kyiv after attacking the city with a drone and missile barrage in recent days that included hypersonic Oreshnik missiles, claiming it will continue to attack “decision making centers” in the city.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1400 – US May Conference Board Consumer Confidence
1430 – Dallas Fed May Manufacturing Activity
1700 – US Treasury to auction USD 69 billion of 2-year Notes
0130 – Australia Apr. CPI
0200 – New Zealand RBNZ to announce the Official Cash Rate

Earnings events

Today: Zscaler
Wednesday: Marvell Technology, Salesforce, Synopsys, Snowflake, Agilent Technologies
Thursday: Dell Technologies, Autodesk

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: US markets were closed on Monday for Memorial Day, so Friday’s official close remained the latest full session.
Europe: European equities rose on Monday, while UK markets were closed for the Spring Bank Holiday. The Euro Stoxx 50 climbed 2.0% to 6,136.66, the Stoxx 600 gained 1.0% to 631.63, Germany’s DAX rose 2.0% to 25,389.10 and France’s CAC 40 added 1.8% to 8,258.26, as falling oil prices and hopes for a US-Iran deal lifted risk appetite. Banks led sectors, while airlines benefited from lower fuel pressure, with Lufthansa up 3.6% and Air France-KLM up 6.2%. ASML gained 1.5% and Schneider Electric rose 3.1% as AI-related optimism continued. Eurozone inflation data is the next test.
Asia: Asia was mixed on Tuesday as early optimism over a quick US-Iran deal met the annoying reality of new US strikes and higher oil. MSCI Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.7%, South Korea’s KOSPI jumped almost 3% to a record, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.3%, while Japan’s Nikkei slipped 0.2% and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.3%. Samsung Electronics rose 2.7% after a labour agreement supported chip sentiment, while SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor rose after Huawei outlined a chip roadmap targeting 1.4nm-equivalent performance by 2031, using system-level design and packaging techniques to work around limits on cutting-edge lithography equipment.

Volatility

Market volatility remains relatively contained, but investors are becoming more sensitive to macro headlines and concentrated positioning in AI-related equities. Nvidia delivered another strong earnings beat and raised guidance, yet the reaction was more muted than in previous quarters, suggesting markets increasingly require “beat-and-raise” results rather than simply strong numbers. Meanwhile, South Korea’s KOSPI rose another 2.9% overnight, extending its recent rally to roughly 8% over the past few sessions, driven by semiconductor optimism and renewed foreign inflows into Asian technology stocks. The move continues to highlight how dependent broader equity sentiment remains on the AI and chip cycle.
Geopolitics also returned to the volatility discussion. Oil prices rebounded after renewed US military activity around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz partially reversed Monday’s sharp decline in crude. Investors remain focused on whether energy markets stabilise or whether higher oil prices start feeding back into inflation expectations and bond yields again. For the remainder of the week, markets will closely watch US GDP, durable goods orders, jobless claims and especially Core PCE inflation on Thursday, alongside earnings from Marvell Technology, Salesforce and Dell Technologies, all of which could influence the AI and technology narrative further.
The VIX closed near 16.6 on Friday and VIX futures remain below 21, suggesting markets still expect relatively orderly trading conditions despite elevated headline risk. SPX options currently imply an expected weekly move of roughly 97 points, or 1.30%, into Friday’s expiry.
0DTE skew indicator: today’s SPX options chain continues to show a mild downside protection bias. Put options roughly 1% below spot are trading noticeably richer than comparable upside calls, showing investors remain more willing to pay for short-term downside protection than speculative upside exposure, even with equities near record highs.

Digital Assets

Digital assets stabilised after a volatile weekend, with Bitcoin holding near USD 76,800 and Ethereum around USD 2,100 as broader risk sentiment improved slightly on hopes of easing Middle East tensions. The crypto market remains closely tied to liquidity conditions and macro sentiment rather than purely crypto-native catalysts. Signs of progress toward a potential Iran agreement helped calm fears around oil supply disruptions, supporting broader risk assets including cryptocurrencies.
Institutional adoption nevertheless remains an important longer-term theme. Nasdaq received conditional SEC approval for cash-settled Bitcoin index options linked to the CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index, another sign that traditional financial infrastructure continues moving deeper into crypto markets. At the same time, ETF flows remain mixed. IBIT traded near USD 42.96 while ETHA fell toward USD 15.57, reflecting softer momentum in spot crypto prices and continued caution among investors. Crypto-related equities were also weaker overall, with Coinbase falling more than 4% and MicroStrategy declining roughly 3%, while selected miners such as MARA and CIFR modestly outperformed.
Options flow data still points to a cautiously bullish tone rather than outright risk-on enthusiasm. Large upside exposure in MicroStrategy and selective Coinbase call buying suggest investors continue positioning for longer-term upside participation, but persistent put demand in IBIT, ETHA and crypto miners shows hedging activity remains active beneath the surface. Among major altcoins, XRP held near USD 1.35 while Solana traded around USD 84.7 and Dogecoin remained under pressure near USD 0.10.

Fixed Income

US Treasury yields are set to open lower Tuesday after the US Memorial Day weekend and hopes for a peace deal with Iran. The benchmark US 2-year treasury yield is indicating an open near 4.05% after closing Friday at 4.12%, while the benchmark 10-year yield is indicating an open near 4.50%, down five basis points from Friday’s close.
Japan’s bonds were mixed Tuesday after rallying sharply on Monday on the sharp drop in crude oil prices. The benchmark 2-year JGB yield fell just under a basis point to below 1.41% after the yield peaked last week above 1.45%. Longer dated yields were mostly steady Tuesday, perhaps on the focus on Japan’s Takaichi seeking a supplemental budget, aiming to do so without increasing overall bond issuance. The benchmark 10-year JGB rose two basis points to 2.72% and the 30-year benchmark yield fell back about one basis point to just below 3.95% after a sharp seven basis point drop on Monday.

Commodities

Oil prices rebounded following Monday’s 7% slump as fresh US military strikes in Iran clouded the outlook for an interim agreement between the US and Iran that could help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway through which around one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows under normal conditions, and which has remained largely closed since early March. While differences between the parties have narrowed, any eventual peace deal would likely lead only to a gradual reopening, meaning the current tight supply outlook could take months to normalize. Reflecting this, the average Brent price for 2027 is currently trading near USD 78.50, compared with around USD 65 before the conflict.
Gold and silver continue to take their cues from crude oil because of its influence on inflation expectations, interest-rate outlooks, bond yields, and the dollar. After rallying on Monday alongside the drop in oil prices, both metals trade softer today as renewed US strikes near the Strait reduced optimism surrounding peace negotiations. Gold remains trapped within a narrowing range, currently bounded by its 200-day moving average at USD 4,383 and 50-day moving average at USD 4,648. A shift away from oil-driven macro dynamics may be needed to attract renewed investor interest.

Currencies

The US dollar rebounded slightly from its weakness Monday as crude oil prices bounced after their huge plunge Monday on news of fresh US strikes against Iranian target even as peace talks supposedly continue. After closing Friday near the stick 1.1600 area, EURUSD rose as high as 1.1653 Monday before dropping back toward 1.1630 by early Tuesday hourse in Europe. USDJPY seems difficult to shift notably from the 159.00 area, where it trades early Tuesday as well.
The Australian dollar continues to trade firmly, with AUDUSD testing the highest levels in a week late Monday above 0.7180 before easing back, and AUDNZD poking toward the decade-plus highs near 1.2250 (the RBNZ to announce the Official Cash Rate early Wednesday, with the market looking for the central bank not seen likely to hike this week, but to hike at its July and/or September meetings, so guidance will be key.) The Aussie is perhaps taking the lead from the Chinese yuan, where CNH posted its strongest close against the US dollar since 2023: USDCNH closing below 6.79 in what seems a green flag for further strengthening.
The Euro is weak against other European currencies of late, as EURGBP trades hovers just above the range low since the summer of 2025 of 0.8610. Elsewhere, EURCHF yesterday tested the 0.9100 level for the first time since March.

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