Head of Macro Analysis, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: What a difference a month makes. The previous JOLTS survey looked like a harbinger of bad times, but this latest one paints a far prettier picture.
Job openings are back to where they were in January this year, at 7.5 million in March, which is well above consensus expectations. The job opening rate is also increasing from the previous month, at 4.7% versus 4.5% (which was an 11-month low). Looking at the “quit rate”, which refers to the number of workers that are voluntarily quitting their job to find better opportunities elsewhere, we notice that it is unchanged at 2.3%.
This all tends to confirm that the US job market is still very well-oriented, as we have seen in the latest NFP report, and that wagepressures should remain stable in coming months. In terms of monetary policy implications, this is another data print that should push the Fed to stay in wait-and-see position for a prolonged period of time.
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