Macro 5 minutes to read

Aussie consumers send slowdown signal

Eleanor Creagh

Australian Market Strategist, Saxo Bank Group

Summary:  The RBA might be giving the economy the benefit of the doubt, but it doesn’t look like consumers and businesses are doing the same.


Yesterday’s ANZ Roy Morgan weekly consumer confidence reading highlighted that consumers are feeling a lot less confident about the outlook for economic growth and their future finances.

Today’s monthly consumer confidence index from Westpac further cemented the downturn in consumers' views on the domestic economy, with sentiment falling 4.8% month-on-month, the largest fall since 2015. The outlook for the Australian economy looking one year forward slid 6.9% m/m and sentiment towards family finances, based on both current conditions and the year ahead, also tumbled. These declines were considerably larger in both New South Wales and Victoria, which is where the steepest declines in the housing market have been felt. 

Westpac Monthly Consumer Confidence:

Consumer sentiment 98.8, -4.8% m/m
Current conditions 101.1, -2.8% m/m
Family finances, year ago 84.4, -5.6% m/m
Economy 1 year ahead 95.9, -6.9% m/m
Buy major household item 117.9, -0.6% m/m

Last week’s weak Q4 GDP report, where GDP growth slowed to 2.3% year-on-year (well below the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 3% target), brought into focus a “per capita” recession and highlighted the loss in economic growth momentum in the back half of 2018, a contributing factor behind the hit to consumer sentiment. The Q3 and Q4 2018 GDP readings now confirm that the domestic economy recorded the two weakest quarters of growth since the GFC as household spending continues to drag on growth

Private consumption continued to slow, falling to 2.0% y/y growth in Q4 from 2.6% in Q3 and 2.9% in the first half of 2018. This weak data likely sealed the deal in bringing down consumers' current confidence and confidence in the economic outlook. The risk is that the downward momentum becomes self-perpetuating. The longer confidence is eroded amongst business and consumers, the more negative sentiment persists and the less likely an H2 rebound becomes. If economic fundamentals continue to deteriorate equity markets will be susceptible to further weakness.

ANZ Roy Morgan weekly consumer confidence:

Consumer Confidence Index 109.5, -4.6%
Financial Situation, year ahead 122.2, -5.4%
Economy One Year Ahead 94.6, -7.9%
Economy Five Years Ahead 105.4, -5.4%
Nestled within today’s Westpac consumer confidence report is further confirmation that heavily indebted Australians are increasingly worried about the domestic outlook as consumers have become more risk-averse in terms of the best place to put new savings than they were during the financial crisis 

Date showed 55% of respondents nominating safe options such as bank deposits, superannuation or paying down debt as the best place for savings, and only 9% of respondents favoured real estate, which has fallen from 28% four years ago and is now at a record low going as far back as 1974. Matthew Hassan, Senior Economist at Westpac, said “The mix is more risk-averse than at the height of the global financial crisis in 2008 and highlights the risk that a move by households to increase savings rates could further undermine consumer demand”.

Private consumption is a big driver behind the Australian economy and historically represents around 60% of GDP. This means the outlook for household spending is very important in determining the future path of the Australian economy. As we have previously highlighted, the outlook surrounding the consumer in Australia remains fragile, which will see the RBA forced into a corner where there is no option but to cut rates, despite their reluctance. The RBA is banking on employment strengthening and wage growth coming through to offset the negative wealth effect and consequent hit to consumption due to falling property prices.

In our view, the RBA is too optimistic and will need to cut the cash rate, but until there is evidence of labour market strength tapering off the RBA will be less inclined to cut rates.

The multiplier effects of house price declines on the economy are yet to be felt and as declines continue, they will intensify. The housing slowdown will feed back to the real economy through the negative wealth effect which will continue to weigh on overleveraged households’ consumption and result in weaker GDP growth. With the current savings ratio near decade lows, consumers will no longer be able to hold up spending habits as asset prices continue to fall. House prices have continued to fall throughout the first quarter of 2019, on that basis it doesn’t look like reprieve is on the horizon. Employment will not continue to hold up as confidence is eroded and growth continues to lose momentum. The labour market remains resilient, but unemployment is a lagging indicator, so the data only gives us a rear-mirror view on the health of the labour market. There are a host of leading indicators that point to a potential slowdown in hiring ahead, and a rise in unemployment.

Continued weakness in consumer confidence is another indicator, amongst many we have already highlighted, showing that policymakers at the RBA, and in the government will need to step in with a policy response using both the fiscal and monetary arrows in their stimulus quiver. 

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Markets
40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
London
United Kingdom

United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo Markets is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets Ltd (‘SCML’). SCML is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo Markets assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.