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Today is a fairly typical, quiet Monday, one with little prospect for USD developments as US markets are partially closed for a holiday. Nonetheless, EURCHF and USDCHF have been poking at interesting levels and could prove a pivotal week for EUR pairs over this Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting.
Not much to update on a Monday with a US holiday today, but we nonetheless have two major CHF pairs looking at interesting break levels and the AUDNZD break higher we noted late last week is still in play, awaiting confirmation or rejection (in all likelihood) over the Q4 CPI numbers from New Zealand tomorrow evening (early Wednesday in New Zealand).
The sterling situation looks very nervous here ahead of a Theresa May speech announcing her 'Plan B' today – consensus believes that she will revisit the original deal agreed with the European Union looking for further concessions, which few believe the EU is ready to grant. Unsure if we will be able to draw firm conclusions that can drive another leg of sustained sterling direction unless the EU position changes or May announces she is ready to proceed with a clean Brexit on March 29. Today’s FX Breakout monitor Page 1
: EURCHF poking at important range resistance near 1.1350 today, but don’t we need the ECB meeting out of the way to have confidence in direction there. As well, Brexit developments could prove a key driver of CHF through GBPCHF flows, which were very notable on the large rally last week.
Elsewhere, we await further developments in AUDNZD as noted above and for other EUR-cross developments, particularly in EURUSD into the end of this week.