Head of Commodity Strategy, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: Speculators slashed bullish commodity bets by 19% to 771,000 lots, an eight-week low, in the week to November 13 with natural gas the only major exception.
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Speculators responded to the sea of red price action in the week to November 13 by cutting bullish commodity bets by 19% to 771,000 lots, an eight-week low. All sectors took a hit with net-selling in 20 out of the 26 major commodity futures tracked in this update.
Natural gas was the only major exception with the biggest reductions seen in Brent, gold, silver, soybean complex and sugar.
The reduction was driven by long-liquidation in Brent (-32,000) and short-selling in WTI (+10,000). From the record levels reached during Q1, leveraged funds have now cut bullish bets in WTI by 344,000 lots (69%) and Brent by 418,000 lots (66%). The gross-long, meanwhile, has dropped to the lowest since September 2015 while the gross-short has reached a 13-month high.
The same goes for silver where the break but subsequent failed attempt below $13.95/oz, the September low, helped trigger a 91% jump in the net-short.
Soybeans have struggled to break above $9/bu and CBOT wheat holds onto support at $5/bu while corn has stayed rangebound between $3.6 and $3.8/bu.
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