EM, China feeling the heat

Michael McKenna

Head of Editorial Content, Saxo Bank Group

Both the CNY and the Chinese CSI 300 index continue to trend lower with the firm USD weighing on emerging markets as a whole while China feels the particular burn of trade war fears and weak sentiment regarding its capacity for economic growth.

"Things are not good [in China] and the complacency in Europe and the US is mind-blowing," stated Saxo Bank Head of Equity Strategy Peter Garnry in a note released this morning.

"China remains the biggest risk to global markets," Garnry adds.

In stocks, AAPL became the world's first trillion-dollar firm by market capitalisation Thursday while Toyota's latest earnings showed the firm exceeding expectations on profits while fretting Chinese demand and the impact of tariffs.

"We continue to be underweight automotive, EM, China, semiconductors while staying overweight healthcare, software/internet, and staples," says Peter Garnry.

In forex, Saxo Bank Head of FX Strategy John Hardy reports that the market is broadly ignoring Thursday's hawkish hike from the Bank of England while shifting to the apparent view that the Bank of Japan statement earlier this week in fact represented a net tightening.

"This move is more visible in non-USDJPY pairs on the dollar's strength," says Hardy.

Finally, Hardy says that EURUSD may finally be gaining some downside momentum with a move out of a recent triangle formation (see chart below).

For more on forex and equities, watch today's Morning Call in full.

Source: Saxo Bank

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