NY Open: Watching paint dry
Traders are on tenterhooks ahead of the release of the latest FOMC meeting minutes later today. They shouldn't bother. Fed board members have repeatedly flown the dovish flag in recent days, so why expect surprises?
It's a quietish start to the week but there’s still plenty to keep an eye on including Turkish CPI, Eurozone PPI, and factory orders and durable goods orders from the US. These latter prints come on the heels of solid payrolls data on Friday, including a 2.6% gain in average hourly earnings. However, despite these robust numbers, the US dollar rally started to fade as resurgent risk appetite put it on the back foot, reports John J Hardy, Saxo’s Head of Forex Strategy.
The Australian dollar faces a heavy data calendar this week, most importantly, the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting at 04:30 GMT Tuesday, though the market consensus doesn’t expect a rate hike until next year.
In equities, risk appetite is back, and European bourses have opened in positive territory, following the lead from Asian gains overnight, says Peter Garnry, Saxo’s Head of Equity Strategy. That said, some risks still lurk in the background including the US trade war and creaky emerging markets.
Finally today, in commodities, Ole Hansen, Saxo’s head of Commodity Strategy, says that gold’s resolve is likely to be challenged ahead of the June 13 Federal Open Market Committee meeting as Friday’s strong job report all but confirmed that another rate hike is coming.
WTI crude oil is challenging support at $65.50/barrel and has retraced half of the February–May rally, with the drivers including expectations that Opec and Russia will soon increase output.