Risk sentiment strong despite trade war, rising yields
The latest and biggest round of US-China tariff threats has failed to dent risk sentiment, which was perhaps also boosted by China’s avowal not to devalue its currency as part of the trade war.
Head of Commodity Strategy, Saxo Bank Group
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During the past three weeks speculators have halved their bearish dollar bets against nine IMM currency futures. Last week, the gross short was cut by one-quarter with all currency except the CAD being sold against the greenback.
Interestingly, the EUR net-long hardly moved and stayed at 80% of the record seen just a few weeks ago. This came as the drop in EURUSD to the lowest since December attracted both fresh long and short positions. The net-short in CHF reached a six-year high after EURCHF returned to 1.20 and thereby retraced all of the January 2015 collapse.
In fixed income, leveraged funds maintained an extended bearish bet across the US yield curve with the value of one basis point move staying close to $200 million.