Technical Update - S&P500 and Nasdaq100
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
S&P500 is testing the 200 Daily SMA and resistance at 4,475. For the leading US Index to fuel further upside a break above 4,490 is needed. If that plays out a move to resistance at around 4,600 is not unlikely. 55 SMA has crossed below 200 SMA and with the RSI (Strength Indicator) struggling to move above 60 (at the time of writing). If RSI cannot close above 60 Bears could get a comeback in the market. However, RSI is still showing Divergence which has not been traded out (can only be done by closing above 60 or dropping below previous RSI lows i.e. January trough)
A daily Index close below 4,400 could accelerate a sell-off to test lows around key support at 4,164
On the weekly time period S&P500 formed a Bullish Engulfing candle Friday which is a bottom and reversal candle and should support a rebound/further upside picture. However, the RSI is still below 60 i.e. still in bearish sentiment since it was last below 40. To add to that, RSI is below its falling trendline. If RSI fails to close above the rebound could be running out of steam. Medium trend is still down.
Friday, Nasdaq 100 closed above the resistance at 14,342 but to build on that and move higher from there RSI must close the day above 60. 55 Daily SMA is putting a lid on the upside indicating market to retrace from current levels.
The Index could be rangebound between 13K and 14,500 for the foreseeable future.
On the weekly time period Nasdaq 100 formed a Bullish Engulfing pattern. However, if the Index cannot follow through and RSI drops back below 40 this bottom and reversal pattern could be cancelled.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.
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