Technical Update - S&P 500 stopped at key resistance, will it break it? Nasdaq 100 established short-term uptrend but it might be too fragile Technical Update - S&P 500 stopped at key resistance, will it break it? Nasdaq 100 established short-term uptrend but it might be too fragile Technical Update - S&P 500 stopped at key resistance, will it break it? Nasdaq 100 established short-term uptrend but it might be too fragile

Technical Update - S&P 500 stopped at key resistance, will it break it? Nasdaq 100 established short-term uptrend but it might be too fragile

Equity 3 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group

S&P500/US500 testing strong resistance for further upside. It can be too strong to break and next couple of days will be key. Even if broken upside seems limited.
Nasdaq 100/USNAS100 lagging S&P500 but has established uptrend. An uptrend that seems fragile and can easily falter and slide back resuming bear trend

 

S&P 500 closed the gap Friday with a strong move higher. peeped just above the key resistance at around 3,807 only to close below. 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of the September sell-off is at 3,810. A close above needed to establish an uptrend.
RSI 14 is still below 60 threshold however, meaning it is still showing negative sentiment. If RSI is rejected at 60 the bear trend is likely to resume. If closing above, it is an indication of further upside momentum.
If S&P closes above 3,807, we could see a rally of another 100 points to strong resistance at 3,900.
55 and 100 SMA’s are coming down around that level i.e., the underlying sentiment is declining and will likely put a dampener on the possible uptrend. If that scenario plays out (that the Index closes above 3,807 and RSI above 60) S&P could run out of steam at the 0.618 retracement at around 3,879.

If S&P 500 slides back below 3,647 the bear trend will resume for lower lows. Look out ofr RSI breaking below its rising trendline

Source: Saxo Group

This morning the US500 cfd/S&P500 future is having another go at the 3,807 resistance. If US500 breaks above next resistance is at around 3,900.
A break below 3,630 is likely to lead to bear trend to resume. First indication of this scenario to play out could be RSI breaking below its rising trend line

Source: Saxo Group

Nasdaq 100 has broken out of its falling channel but closed below the upper resistance of the Gap. A close above 11,478 is needed for further upside. However, there are plenty overhead resistance if Nasdaq manages to close above 11,478.
11,660 would be key for confirmation of a new uptrend. An uptrend that could be cut short around 12K.
RSI is still showing negative sentiment and still has some way to for before reaching the positive sentiment threshold.
If Nasdaq 100 slides back below 10,962 bear trend resumes for lower lows.

Source: Saxo Group

USNAS100 cfd/Nasdaq future seems to establish a very short-term uptrend but key resistance will be at around 11,668. A close above will confirm this. IF the USNAS100  slides basck below 10,891 the bear trend is set to resume.

Source: Saxo Group
Note: Author is holding a short position in USNAS100

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Markets
40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
London
United Kingdom

Support Centre
For existing clients, please click here to request support via the Support Centre.

Have a question about our products, platforms or services? Visit the Support Centre to find answers for our most frequently asked questions. If you are still unable to locate an answer to your question, you will also find contact details for your local Saxo office to speak with a representative.

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo Markets is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘SCML’). SCML is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo Markets assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.