Technical Update - ABN AMRO and ING in confirmed uptrends. Likely to outperform AEX
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
When most of the stocks in the AEX 25 Index are in downtrends the banks seem to be headed in the opposite direction.
ABN AMRO has broken bullish out of a falling channel by a close above the upper trend line. A close above 10.80 will confirm short-term uptrend supported by RSI closing above 60.
IF ABN closes above 10.80 ABN AMRO has confirmed medium-term uptrend with upside potential to around 12.70 with resistance at around 11.75. The 200 SMA will offer some resistance. First indication of this scenario to play out would be if ABN closes above the medium-term falling trend line (see weekly chart) resistance at 12.39.
If ABN drops back below the 0.618 retracement and closes below 9.32 the medium-term bullish scenario will be reversed.
RSI could be the first Warning of this scenario unfolding if it closes back below 40 threshold
ING has closed above resistance at 9.58 and established an uptrend. RSI is above the 60 threshold supporting the bullish picture.
200 Simple Moving Average (SMA) will offer some resistance but there will be stronger resistance at 10.75.
Medium-term: If ING breaks above 10.75 it will try to close the gap between 10.39 and 11.40. 11.40 and 11.67 will be a strong resistance area.
If ING drops back and closes below 9.58 this uptrend scenario will be demolished. With a close below 8.46 a new down trend has been established.
Keep an eye on RSI. If RSI break below its rising trendline ING is likely to turn bearish with a move to around 8.00
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