Details Cookies
United Kingdom
Important margin product information

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, FX or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Cookie policy

This website uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience by enabling, optimising and analysing site operations, as well as to provide personalised ad content and allow you to connect to social media. By choosing “Accept all” you consent to the use of cookies and the related processing of personal data. Select “Manage consent” to manage your consent preferences. You can change your preferences or retract your consent at any time via the cookie policy page. Please view our cookie policy here and our privacy policy here

The Week Ahead: April is historical the best month for equities, but money flows suggest clients are cautious

The Week Ahead: April is historical the best month for equities, but money flows suggest clients are cautious

Jessica Amir
Market Strategist

Summary:  April historical brings hope to markets, but clients are playing the defensive game, topping up their bond exposure in case of a recession. Across the entire industry $304 billion has flown in money market bonds over the last three weeks. This weeks economic data could be a catalyst for Q1 market darlings, such as high PE semiconductor stocks, to take a haircut. And why consumer spending stocks will be in focus.

April historical brings hope to markets, but clients are playing the defensive game

After end of quarter and end of financial year in Japan, we’re turning the page to Q2 and a new month. April is historically the best month for equites. It is typically attributed to the excess profits or cash being put to work, that was taken off the table from end of March quarter

In Q1, the Economic Surprise Index hit a new high with data coming out better than expected, with inflation continuing to slow. So, we’ve seen the risk-on trade amplify. The Nasdaq 100 gained about 19% in the first quarter. While in Commodities, the iron ore price rose the most, 10%, outpacing gold, as China’s reopening narrative gained pace with the Chinese government introducing more stimulus. In FX markets, the most talked about trade in Q1 was the Euro against the USD, with stubbornly high EU inflation giving the European Central Bank more room to hike than the Fed.  In terms of the major equity themes; semiconductors have been driving markets higher, and are up 23% YTD. Nvidia shares are up 90% in three months.

The most traded instruments at Saxo in Q1 show clients are being defensive

Reflecting on the most transacted upon instruments by Saxo clients; Tesla has garnered the most buys on the Saxo platform. The EV giant has been selling more EVs than expected, and is coming up with new ways to save cost, such as building a battery plant in the US with China’s battery leader, CATL which can build lithium iron phosphate batteries cheaper, than traditional prior nickel-based batteries. Tesla’s also deploying $22 billion in cash to crank up production.

Reflecting on the most purchased ETFs globally now, across the entire industry, quality ETFs have gained the most flows, with QUAL taking in $7.3 billion of flows in Q1. What’s interesting is, the biggest positions in the QUAL ETFs are with Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Meta, and Alphabet. Secondly, with investors hunting for stable returns, $6.1 billion has flowed into the 7-10 year government bond ETF IEF.

Stepping back even further, across the entire money market, amid the bank sector turmoil, we’ve seen large withdrawals of cash from bank deposits, with money instead being channeled into bond markets, with $304 billion flowing into bonds just over the last three weeks, as investor seek better returns for their cash component of their portfolio.

What's on the economic horizon that could move markets; PMIs, jobs, central bank meetings

This week, markets will be tracking
recessionary risk, with the US manufacturing and services PMIs indicators out. Manufacturing will likely to slip further into contraction, while the US services PMI is expected to weaken.

US jobs data will also be a focus. If it shows stronger jobs data, as in the US economy can withstand more Fed hikes, then equities could give back some gains. Specifically, watch indices that are more expensive that the global average, with the MSCI World Index’s PE of 17. So keep an eye on the Nasdaq, given its price to earnings (PE) is 35 times. It could be pressured if eco’ prints are hot. Semiconductor stocks could be more vulnerable of a haircut, as their PEs are quite high and their stocks have made strong gains. For example, Nvidia shares are up 90% this year, and it has a PE of 120 times earnings. AMD’s shares are up 51% YTD, and its PE is 85 times.

Secondly, the RBA and RBNZ  interest rate decisions will be watched. If the RBA is more hawkish and backflips from its dovish tone, then the AUD would whip saw higher. The market has priced in rates will stay at 3.6%, given headline CPI and the Melbourne Institute’s gauge showed CPI also slowed. But most economists expect a hike. For more considerations ahead, read our article.

Company news to be across; that could move the beer brewing and consumer spending sectors. 

Earnings releases are thin, ahead of 
earnings season kick off mid-April. Beer brewers could be an interesting sector to watch, with the third largest brewer, Constellation Brands reporting Thursday. It sells brands such as Corona and Modelo, and its earnings are expected to drop amid household disposable incomes being stressed, while higher marketing and packaging costs are expected to weigh. Its results could impact sentiment in other brewers, such as the global giant, Anheuser-Busch InBev, as well as Kirin Holdings.

Outside of earnings Walmart's investors day will be focus as it might divulge insights into the state of the consumer. Its outlook could also cause waves in consumer spending stocks. Walmart is expected to map out its long-term growth outlook targets, as well as cost-saving initiatives and additional revenue streams, which could boost its earnings per share.


Stay tuned to for daily updates, and inspiration
For a detailed weekly report, tune into our 
Spotlight report.  
For a global look at markets – tune into our 



The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
- Full disclaimer (

Saxo Markets
40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
United Kingdom

Support Centre
For existing clients, please click here to request support via the Support Centre.

Have a question about our products, platforms or services? Visit the Support Centre to find answers for our most frequently asked questions. If you are still unable to locate an answer to your question, you will also find contact details for your local Saxo office to speak with a representative.

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo Markets is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘SCML’). SCML is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo Markets assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.