Summary: Watch our video in under five minutes or read the text below.
Ahead of the Fed Chair speaking and bevy of other speakers from the Fed giving speeches this week, investors are zeroing in the prospect of more US rate hikes following that wildly hot January US jobs report, strong payrolls growth and a rebound in the US services sector. The US dollar gained 3% from its low, US treasury yields leapt higher, and this pressured broad US and European equities, with some investors taking profits. Meanwhile, with the US dollar index hit its highest level since January, with most metal prices continuing to pull away from fresh highs, with the market ignoring the fundamentals and lack of physical commodity supply.
The latest RBA indicators have been hot; surging Australian inflation, hotter than expected retail sales numbers, slowing employment (although unemployment is near five decade lows, at 3.5%), yet other metrics such as building approvals are soaring - seeing one of their biggest jumps in a decade. Meanwhile the RBA is contending with signs of a slowing economy; with the services sector in contractionary phase and retail spending falling. Still the RBA is likely to continue to hike rates to the highest in over a decade. A 25-bp hike is expected by most today. However guidance is key, as the market is now pricing the RBA for another ~37 bps of tightening, into a peak in either June or July, and then cutting in September. We’re watching AUDUSD and EURAUD with the AUD having nose-dived as commodity prices fell from their highs, while the USD gathers strength, with the dollar index breaking above 103 for the first time since early January. If the RBA hikes more than expected, a knee-jerk rally up the Aussie dollar is likely.
President Biden has yet to give the go-ahead, however it’s being reported the White House was mulling an outright ban. The 200% tariff is expected to have a limited impact on prices given Russia accounts for 6% of global aluminium. Aluminum prices held losses, largely pressured by a higher US dollar. In the US, Alcoa and Century Aluminum shares fell. In Australia keep an eye on Rio Tinto and Alumina. Investors may like to consider prices are paring back from their highs amid a higher US dollar, yet concerns linger that supply cannot keep up with demand for high purity aluminium. The same applies to most metals. There are risks of a further pull back in commodity pricing should the US dollar continue to run up, however, the market will likely once again focus back on fundamentals. So keep an eye on the US dollar.
For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.
The market is trying to get back to the pre-Covid and pre-war times, but that model is broken. A new dawn is here and the financial world needs to adapt.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
A political switch in China towards less tough control of its people and companies may kick things back into gear.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
While the economic situation in Europe may not be as bad as feared, there's still a plethora of things to fix.
Chris Dembik,
Head of Macroeconomic Research
As the world turns increasingly bipolar, equity markets face harsh times as they transition into the new reality.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
New alliances and collaborations outside of China may lead to prosperous times in Asia.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
For years, it was thought that the balanced portfolio was a thing of the past. But recent developments may have changed that.
Peter Siks,
Investment Coach
Following a dramatic and volatile 2022 with good returns, a lot of this year's commodity performance may be driven by Chinese politics.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
2023 could be a tough year for currencies but EUR and JPY may have some upside.
John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy
The commodity-heavy Australian market may have a good start to 2023, as the Chinese focus on growth signals demand for Aussie resources.
Jessica Amir,
Market Strategist
From a near-perfect environment for speculative assets before 2022 to the opposite, crypto faces fundamental challenges.
Mads Eberhardt,
Cryptocurrency Analyst
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)