Technical Update - S&P 500 rejected at key resistance. Nasdaq in down trend. Dow Jones looks strong Technical Update - S&P 500 rejected at key resistance. Nasdaq in down trend. Dow Jones looks strong Technical Update - S&P 500 rejected at key resistance. Nasdaq in down trend. Dow Jones looks strong

Technical Update - S&P 500 rejected at key resistance. Nasdaq in down trend. Dow Jones looks strong

Equity 3 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

S&P500 rejected at key resistance. Bear trend likely to resume
Nasdaq in confirmed downtrend, likely to test October lows
Dow Jones outperforms, will it have another go at key resistances?


S&P 500 was rejected at key resistance at around 3,907. A close above could have fueled a rally to test the medium-term falling trendline (black). Now S&P500 is back below 55 daily SMA and RSI was also rejected at 60 threshold i.e., still in negative sentiment.
If S&P drops lower to close below 3,647 the bear trend has resumed, and the Index is likely t test October lows below 3,500.

Source all charts and data: Saxo Group

Nasdaq 100 is back in bear trend after closing below 10,962. RSI is negative indicating lower levels below October lows at 10,440.
If Nasdaq 100 closes below October lows, which seems like a plausible scenario, 10K is in sight. However, 10K is more a psychological level than at technical level. If Nasdaq takes out the October low, it also drops below the consolidation area support from 2020. The pre-Covid peak at 9,736 is likely to be tested (and we will see a lot of media attention if that occurs) but as previously mentioned there is room down to around 9K.
8,910 is the 0.786 retracement of the entire 2020-2021 uptrend and 8,986 is the 1.764 projection of the Q3 2022 correction.
And 1.618 projection of the current correction is at 9,379, close to the pre-Covid peak at 9,736
An RSI close on weekly below the rising trendline will add to the bearish picture.

For Nasdaq to reverse this medium-term bearish trend a close above 11,682 is needed.
To reverse the short-term downtrend a close above 11,682 is needed.

Dow Jones Index (DJI) got rejected at the 0.786 retracement at 33,090. A few points below the resistance at 33,292 and the falling medium-term trendline (Black line)

RSI is still in positive sentiment with no divergence indicating Dow Jones could have another go at the resistance levels just mentioned. A close above 33,292 and the falling trendline DJI is likely to test key resistance at 34,281. But if DJI closes below 31,727 it could fuel a sell-off down to around 30,206 support. Some support at 31,387

Author is holding a short position in USNAS100

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
Beethovenstrasse 33
CH-8002
Zurich
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law.

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.