Technical Update - DAX, GER40, CAC40, AEX, BEL20, SMI and OMX C25
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Equities market across Europe is opening higher Monday morning putting upwards pressure on the top and reversal scenarios formed last week.
With DAX opening higher Monday morning the top and reversal candle Bearish Engulfing recorded 23rd March is under pressure. If Dax closes a day at 14,540 or higher the reversal scenario has changed and we could see DAX move to test 14,952 resistance .
RSI still below 60 i.e. negative (bearish) sentiment. If RSI closes above 60 sentiment will change to positive (bullish).
Identical picture on the GER40 cfd (future) obviously apart from no Bear Engulfing has been formed 23rd March. However, A break above high on the 23 March at 14,579 is likely move GER40 to test resistance at 14,830 and possibly 15K.
Similar picture on CAC40. If CAC closes above 6,685 a move to resistance at around 6,836 is likely. 200 SMA will offer some resistance however.
If CAC drops back below 6,421 bear trend will resume.
AEX Amsterdam Index displaying identical picture . Strong resistance at 735. Below 718 is likely to resume down trend.
Of all European Equity markets the Belgian main Index BEL20 has rebounded the strongest since early March trough. It seems to be rejected at the 200 daily Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 0.764 Fibonacci retracement of the entire bear move since early January.
If BEL20 closes below 4,092 sellers are likely to regain control sending the Index towards 4K. For further upside a close above 4,187 is needed. If that unfolds previous highs could be tested.
Leading Swiss Index SMI20 is hovering around the 200 daily SMA and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at around 12,205. If buyers cannot hold the market and the Index drops below 12,069 selling pressure could get fuelled sending SMI below 12K.
RSI struggling to break above 60 threshold i.e still in negative sentiment.
Danish OMX C25 has been rejected at the resistance area around 1,800-1,818. The picture is bearish with all moving average declining. If OMX C25 closes below 1,683 selling pressure is likely to intensify.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.