With leading economies starting to slow and key indicators in the risk zone, find out whether a global recession is on the horizon and how you can position yourself with Saxo.

How are the world’s economies faring?

The German economy is running out of steam, with industrial outputs slumping amid global trade tensions and reduced demand from China.

The UK’s messy divorce from the EU is creating further uncertainty across the continent, while Italy’s attempts to quash its €2 trillion debt led to an uneasy truce with the European Commission on its 2019 budget.

Equity markets suffered their worst year for a decade in 2018, with deep sell-offs in December driving US indices closer to bear market territory.

The ongoing trade war with China is weighing on investor confidence, while Trump’s 35-day government shutdown is likely to have knocked economic growth, which is estimated to ease to around 2.3 percent in 2019.

China’s annual growth was just 6.6 percent in 2018 – the lowest it’s been in almost three decades – as a crackdown on debt-fuelled spending and trade war with the US spooked consumers and hobbled corporate investment.

Beijing is considering delaying its ambitious ‘Made in China 2025’ plan, in a bid to stop the trade war from escalating and triggering a full-blown recession.

Are the charts pointing to a recession?

  • Following a long downward trend that began in 2014, US yield spreads hit their lowest level since the 2008 recession in December 2018. If they turn negative, a recession is usually projected to arrive within 12 months. Learn more

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    Recession Watch: news and analysis

    Stay up to date on the global economic outlook with expert insights from the SaxoStrats, our team of in-house analysts.

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