FX Breakout Monitor: EURNOK at an all-time high

Forex 3 minutes to read

John Hardy

Head of FX Strategy

Summary:  EURNOK cleared the local range highs with a bang today and is having a look at all-time highs today. Sterling is trading very nervously as Brexit headlines constantly shifted the odds back and forth today, not a momentum traders delight. AUDUSD looking at the lowest daily close for the cycle ahead of important Australian jobs data tonight.


The FX Breakout Monitor is back, and it is expanded with "autosignals" that show examples of how to trade new breakouts, defined as new 19-day high or low closes not preceded by a breakout in the same direction in the prior week. Click on the link below for a look at the full PDF of the table overview and the Recent New Breakouts tables. See further below for a couple of chart highlights related to today's monitor.

Today’s Breakout monitor

Sterling has broken higher in places today in intraday terms, but the action has been very choppy and treacherous for traders looking for a persistent move. More persistent over the last couple of sessions has been NOK weakness, with today ushering in a massive break lower in the currency as EURNOK cleared a well-defined range high, likely triggering strong order flows. EURNOK even had a look at the all-time highs from the global financial crisis above 10.15 today. Traders will now watch whether the move holds into the close today for follow through higher still.

Among potential breakout trades, we zero in on the Aussie, where the currency is pushing lower amid concerns that the US-China trade deal is going nowhere fast and as any consistent signs of labour market weakness will likely rekindle talk of potential QE from the RBA. Australia reports September jobs data tonight. We focus on AUDUSD below in the chart highlight, but EURAUD, as of this writing, is trading above its 19-day high close.

Today’s Breakout Highlight: AUDUSD
The lowest close for the cycle for AUDUSD is a mere 25-ish pips away at the time of writing, just above 0.6704 (surprisingly, this equates to well over a half ATR, showing just how compressed AUDUSD trading ranges have been recently). Tonight’s Australian employment data for September, could finally blast this pair out of its tight range of the last, more than two months, particularly on a highly negative surprise. A significant new low, however, would require a break of the chugging, back-filling descending envelope of price action.

Source: Saxo Group
Disclaimer

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Pty Ltd prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Combined Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/.

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
- Analysis Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/analysis-disclaimer/saxo-analysis-disclaimer)
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Pty Ltd.
Level 25, 2 Park Street
NSW 2000
Sydney
Australia

Australia

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-au/about-us/awards

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Pty Ltd ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms & Combined Financial Services Guide & Product Disclosure Statement to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as CFDs and Margin FX products may result in your losses surpassing your initial deposits. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.
Please click here to view our full disclaimer.