APAC Global Macro Morning Brief – Happy Macro Tue 15 Oct 2019: Early Days on Trade Talks & Turkey… APAC Global Macro Morning Brief – Happy Macro Tue 15 Oct 2019: Early Days on Trade Talks & Turkey… APAC Global Macro Morning Brief – Happy Macro Tue 15 Oct 2019: Early Days on Trade Talks & Turkey…

APAC Global Macro Morning Brief – Happy Macro Tue 15 Oct 2019: Early Days on Trade Talks & Turkey…

Macro 1 minute to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Morning APAC Global Macro & Cross-Asset Snapshot


All market updates, research and trade ideas from our strategists in Copenhagen, Paris, Singapore and Sydney can be found at home.saxo => Traders => Market Analysis.

Latest Macro Monday: "Phase One" - here we go again... 

(Note that these are solely the views & opinions of KVP/sender of this email & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations.)

Happy Macro Tue 15 Oct 2019

APAC Global Macro Morning Brief – Early Days on Trade Talks & Turkey…


So this wk’s Macro Monday had the phrase “here we go again” and we have already seen that play out over the last 24hrs:

China has coming back saying they need more talks before signing off on phase one.

On Turkey, we are seeing Trump stumble, shuffling back on his position on the situation in Northern Syria by putting sanctions (again) on Turkey – this has been predominantly due to having even his staunchest supporters rebel at his recent actions of pulling out US troops from Northern Syria (where they were allied with the Kurds against ISIS predominantly as well as the Syrian regime – which is backed by Russia & Iran), in essence giving free reign for the Turkish military (A NATO member) to do as they see fit.

Erdogan of course, is just about as open minded & rational as Trump – so we can easily see that the base case scenario is no near-term end in sight.

The Kurds have in the meantime been forced to team up with the Syrian Army – the result, Captain Chemicals a.k.a. Assad’s army is rolling into Northern Syria in territories they have not controlled for years. Makes you wonder what all those years of fighting, countless lives, suffering & damage were for – with future costs of all this still very much to come, it’s like the opposite of a positive cashflow stream. War = Insanity, yet can be hugely profitable as well as strategic to those looking to maintain power. 

It all unfortunately, likely gets worse here before it gets better & KVP would love to be wrong on this. DollarTry pulled jumped +0.75% to 5.9276 – the 6.00 is a natural resistance level that folks will watch, just beware the carry on this puppy.

Getting back on US / CH, is it real or not? – three things to keep in mind for now.


If you’re a long-term investor, in hindsight this whole period will be noise – the meta trend is still a world where we have not yet seen the lowest levels of yields & rates, yet. Even if we got the mother of all agreements between the US & CH tomorrow, the global economic trend would not magically reverse to the upside, i.e. everything solved, nothing to see here, etc.

The tactical traders are the ones that have all the fun – alongside accompanying stress –  of playing this ‘risk-on’ & ‘risk-off’ moves that are very fragile & headline driven. Yesterday was  perfect example with a strong start on Equity futures, gold & silver being sold off in the Asia morning – to all that reversing later in the day on predominantly one headline from China.

Never has so little, moved so much, yet still been meaningless from an actual structural change perspective (i.e noise). Makes you wonder how many of the systematic folks are thriving.

Still very sceptical on any firm & long-term agreement, yet KVP would be egoless enough to respect the price action either way. We are likely in more of the same for another year, until at least China decides that they are tired of playing the two steps forward three steps back game – granted Trump is the best thing to have every happened to China.

More on that on another post this wk. Have a great day everyone.

 


Today:

  • CH: CPI 2.9%e 2.8%p & PPI -1.2%e -0.8%p
  • JP: Tertiary Activity & IP
  • UK: Jobs data & Carney speaking 16:30 SGT/HKT (10:30 CET, 04:30 ET)
  • EZ: GER ZEW, EZ ZEW, French CPI
  • NZ: Milk Auction

 

Other:

Disclaimer

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/.

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
- Analysis Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/analysis-disclaimer/saxo-analysis-disclaimer)
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000
Australia

Contact Saxo

Select region

Australia
Australia

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-au/about-us/awards

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.