Forex 8 minutes to read

FX Breakout Monitor for December 11

John Hardy

Head of FX Strategy

Summary:  This is the first release of the Beta of our new FX Breakout Monitor, a look at FX crosses – and gold and silver in USD terms – and whether they are trading near or at breakout levels on short- and medium-term time frames.


Our new FX Breakout monitor looks at the major FX pairs and crosses as well as a handful of emerging market crosses versus the US dollar and spot silver and gold. The breakout overview hopefully offers a quick way to highlight the currency pairs that are nearing a breakout level – or have just broken out – and to highlight the signals we find interesting.

The overview is geared more towards new signal discovery rather than highlighting FX pairs that have broken out some time ago and are already trending and posting a string of new highs or lows. Note the PDF link here if you would prefer to view off-line. A few explanatory notes to follow soon on the table contents.

In the future, this overview will accompany standard trade setups for trading breakout signals that could be of interest, in the hope that the breakout sets a solid trending move in motion. Stay tuned for much more.


Today’s SaxoStrats FX Breakout Monitor snapshot (keep in mind that it is a snapshot only and could change before the close of the day’s trading.) Click here for PDF version.

Two signals today: EURCHF (19-day and 49-day downside) and XAGUSD (19-day upside) breakouts:

Source: Saxo Bank
Source: Saxo Bank
Chart: XAGUSD

The spot silver situation is getting interesting, but the last two signals of new 19-day high closes aren’t quite there yet as we have yet to clear the well established range stretching back all the way to August. A solid break and close above 15.00 may be needed ultimately – or a high momentum close above 14.75 at minimum, here –  to convince the breakout trader that a new trend is under way. Note the shading of deep blue of silver’s ATR on the FX Breakout Overview chart, which indicates very quiet trading conditions and possibly lack of trading interest.
Source: Saxo Bank
Chart: EURCHF

In the case of EURCHF, yesterday’s break of the 1.1275 was the key break signal – but as this is still new, the signal is highlighted again today. EURCHF is a reluctant trender and sensitive to EU news and concerns that the Swiss National Bank could step in to defend – as well, we haven’t cleared the range lows back from September.
Source: Saxo Bank
Chart: GBPUSD

An example of a recent breakout is GBPUSD, which posted a new 19-day (within range) and more importantly, a 49-day (beyond range) breakout yesterday. This looks a valid breakout until proven otherwise on a close back above the 1.2695 area – the risky part being that Brexit headlines can prove treacherous in either direction.
Source: Saxo Bank
Disclaimer

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Pty Ltd prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Combined Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/.

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
- Analysis Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/analysis-disclaimer/saxo-analysis-disclaimer)
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Pty Ltd.
Level 25, 2 Park Street
NSW 2000
Sydney
Australia

Australia

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-au/about-us/awards

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Pty Ltd ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms & Combined Financial Services Guide & Product Disclosure Statement to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as CFDs and Margin FX products may result in your losses surpassing your initial deposits. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.
Please click here to view our full disclaimer.