Gold looks to the UK and Italy for support

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Summary:  Gold took a beating last week at the hands of US rate hike expectations and unexpectedly strong data. Now, renewed dollar strength against EUR and GBP is keeping the pressure up on the yellow metal.


Gold has dropped to its lowest in a month  (-0.3%) and is now looking for support this Monday after breaking below $1,211/oz on Friday. Last week it was the stronger-than-expected US PPI coming just after the Federal Open Market Committee confirmed that further gradual rate hikes are coming that helped send the yellow metal lower. The weakness this morning has been driven by continued dollar strength, especially against the euro (+0.8%) as the European Commission is ready to escalate its budget battle with Italy. The dollar has also gained versus sterling (+1%) as pressure built on the British Prime Minister to ditch her Brexit plan or face defeat in Parliament. 

Following on from last Friday’s PPI, the market will be looking ahead to the release of October US CPI on Wednesday. The headline figure is expected to show a year-on-year rise of 2.5%, up from 2.2% in September. The US bond market has not yet bought into a rising inflation outlook with the 10-year breakeven yield having stayed close to 2.1% all year. As a result of this the equivalent 10-year real yield, currently at 1.13% and up from 0.4% at the beginning of the year, has been rising almost in line with the rise in nominal yield. Rising real yields pose a challenge to gold given the opportunity cost of holding an asset that does not pay a coupon or a dividend. 
Hedge funds reduced bearish gold bets by 18% during the week to November 6 before the mentioned price weakness ahead of the weekend. ETF investors meanwhile increased total holdings again, albeit at a much reduced rate compared with the previous four weeks. 
The political uncertainty, which is the key driver behind today’s dollar strength – note it is trading unchanged against the Japanese yen – has helped cushion gold’s drop with focus now being the area of support between $1,202/oz (50% Fibo) and $1,198/oz (trendline from the August low). 
Source: Saxo Bank
However, keep an eye on silver which after testing resistance last week once again collapsed. It is currently challenging support at $14/oz, and with silver already trading historically cheaply relative to gold, a break below is likely to be felt in gold as well. 
Source: Saxo Bank
Disclaimer

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Pty Ltd prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Combined Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/.

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
- Analysis Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/analysis-disclaimer/saxo-analysis-disclaimer)
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Pty Ltd.
Level 25, 2 Park Street
NSW 2000
Sydney
Australia

Australia

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-au/about-us/awards

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Pty Ltd ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms & Combined Financial Services Guide & Product Disclosure Statement to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as CFDs and Margin FX products may result in your losses surpassing your initial deposits. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.
Please click here to view our full disclaimer.