Today's edition of the Saxo Morning Call was unfortunately delayed by technical factors, but this second installment of our new live format features Saxo Bank Head of FX Strategy John Hardy, Head of Equity Strategy Peter Garnry, and Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen discussing last week's TRY crisis, the follow-on seen overnight in Asia, and the contagion risk going forward.
EM FX Carry Trade Update November 18, 2019
The backdrop for EM Carry Trades has become a bit less supportive than it was at recent extremes, though it is still largely positive, especially the recently tighter credit spreads for emerging market debt. And yet, performance for carry trades has been fairly flat in most cases and downright bad for select South American FX.
EM FX Carry Trade Update October 31, 2019
Emerging market carry trades have enjoyed very strong support recently from complacent background conditions. But those conditions may prove less supportive if instead of celebrating Fed liquidity provision and easing we see deepening signs that the US is headed into a recession. As well aggressive rate cuts are wearing down the carry premium for many EM currencies as well.
EM FX Carry Trade Update October 22, 2019
Emerging market carry trades are enjoying maximum support from the market backdrop, as risk sentiment has been boosted by prospects for a quick and soft Brexit deal and hopes that a US-China trade deal on the way. But if we have yet to reach the bottom of the growth cycle, can EM currencies continue to rise without incident?
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