The SaxoStrats team went live this morning on Facebook with our new Morning Call format, covering the dramatic plunge in the Turkish lira as well as the broader state of play in Turkish assets ahead of President Erdogran's key speech at 11:00 GMT today.
EM FX Carry Trade Update October 11, 2019
Select carry trades are ripping higher on the double whammy boost from hopes for a US-China trade deal, even if it proves one of narrow scope, and more concrete signs that Brexit negotiations have achieved a major breakthrough that will lead to a last-minute deal before the October 31 deadline. But there is quite a diversity of performance within the EM space that suggests EM plays not all being lumped together.
EM FX Carry Trade Update October 1, 2019
A few wobbles in risk conditions recently and in particular a broadly strong US dollar have virtually all EM currencies on their back foot over the last week. The USD outlook looks critical for the EM currency outlook, while today's strong pickup in long bond yields is the most interesting development - and a negative one - for the low yielding funding currencies.
EM FX Carry Trade Update September 23 2019
Conditions for carry traders have been very supportive outside of a rather firm USD of late, as risk appetite has not even been fazed by the USD liquidity issues that required the Fed to begin ad hoc liquidity operations to smooth over the situation. We're a bit more concerned about the outlook, especially given the Fed's lack of a more cautious stance at the most recent meeting, not to mention a sign or two that US-China trade deal talk may not lead anywhere next month.
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