COT: Dollar longs reach 18-month high before Trump tweet

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Please click to access the COT forex and financials PDFs for the week ending July 17, 2018.

The speculative long dollar position against nine IMM currency futures rose by 12% in the week to July 17. Following 13 weeks of almost continuous buying it reached $19 billion, the most dollar bullish since January 2017 with selling of EUR, CHF and not least JPY more than offsetting small buying of the other six.

Enlarge

The IMM EUR net-long dropped to just 21.4 lots, a 14-month low before President Trump renewed his attack on the strong dollar, not least against the euro and the Chinese yuan.   

Enlarge

Financials:

Despite seeing range-bound trading, leveraged funds nevertheless increased bearish bond bets to the highest level seen this year. The DV01, which measures the dollar value of one basis point change in yield, jumped almost ten million dollars to -$217 million. 

Enlarge

Selling was primarily seen in 10s and Ultra bonds with the current net-short positions in 5s, 10s and Ultra bonds being close to multi-year highs.

Enlarge

You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.

Disclaimer

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Pty Ltd prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Combined Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/.

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
- Analysis Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/analysis-disclaimer/saxo-analysis-disclaimer)
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)