Saxo Equity World Cup: Colombia flops as Denmark rises to the top

Peter Garnry

Head of Equity Strategy
Peter Garnry joined Saxo Bank in 2010 and is Head of Equity Strategy. In 2016, he became responsible for the quantitative strategies team, which focuses on how to apply computer models to financial markets. He develops trading strategies and analyses of the equity markets as well as individual company stocks applying statistics and models.

For a complete list of five-year price charts for all stocks in Saxo's 2018 Equity World Cup, click here.

The 2018 FIFA World Cup is powering on and so is our Saxo Equity World Cup. After 23 matches (see results below) we are now beginning to see a picture emerging. Most matches in our game have been a good reverse indicator of the winning team in the real World Cup.

The tables below show the groups in our game as of yesterday's matches. The clear trend is that emerging market countries/stocks have done the best except for one standout developed market – Denmark (represented by Novo Nordisk) – which is up 5.2% in USD terms as the Danish company yesterday announced good data on its oral diabetes drug semaglutide, showing promising results on weight reduction compared to Merck’s product Januvia.

In our introduction we highlighted Colombia (Ecopetrol) as a potential winner based on strong price momentum in the days before the tournament, but interestingly enough Ecopetrol is the worst performer since 13 June in USD terms and is down 8.3% as EM equities have been sold off broadly and are also affected by worries over oil prices in a trade war escalation scenario. Our expectation for oil prices is mildly positive over the coming two weeks. Based on current performance (“stock fitness”) Denmark looks to have good chances of go far in the tournament. We will give updates again next week.

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