COT: Euro longs digging in their heels despite rising dollar

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy
Ole Hansen joined Saxo Bank in 2008 and has been Head of Commodity Strategy since 2010. He focuses on delivering strategies and analyses of the global commodity markets defined by fundamentals, market sentiment and technical developments.

In the week to May 1 speculators bought dollars against every IMM currency futures that we track in this report. As a result of this the gross dollar short was cut by 21% to $19 billion. The main contributors were net selling of EUR, CHF and GBP. 

COT 07 May 2018
 
Surprisingly, the gross long in EUR increased by 4067 lots to 100,443 lots so the 8% reduction in the net-long to an 18-week low was purely driven by a strong pick-up in fresh short selling. 

 COT 07 May 2018

Financials:

COT 07 May 2018 

In fixed income, leveraged funds extended bearish bets across the US yield curve with all maturities except 10-year notes being sold.  

COT 07 May 2018

The total value of a one basis point move from 3-months Eurodollar to T-bonds ultra rose to $198 million, the highest in at least a year. This not least due to heavy selling at the front end of the curve where the net-short in 5-yr notes reached 780k lots, a 15-month high.

COT 07 May 2018
 
In equities, aggressive buying of the S&P500 flipped the position from a net-short to the highest net-long since 2009. In addition, specs bought Nasdaq and Dow Jones while selling out some more of the VIX long.

Disclaimer

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Pty Ltd prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed you initial investment.

Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Combined Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/.