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Morning Brew August 28 2026
Summary: How much will Kevin Warsh reveal today? The Iran war started six months ago.
Good morning.
How much will Kevin Warsh reveal today? The Iran war started six months ago.
Fed officials are split ahead of today’s speech. Kansas City’s Schmid and Cleveland’s Hammack argue that policy is not restrictive enough, while Boston’s Collins says rates are only mildly restrictive. Inflation remains above the 2% target and unemployment is at 4.2%; in a normal cycle, this would still look like an environment for tighter policy. The Trump administration, however, wants lower rates to ease the debt burden. At the same time, the new Fed Chair is no friend of clear guidance. That makes today’s speech interesting: we do not know how much he will actually give away. Jackson Hole reactions have ranged from almost nothing to fairly dramatic. The conferenct is known to prepare markets for prepare markets for major changes such as shift the balance between hawkish and dovish expectations The speech is at 16:00 CET
Among he noteworthy events,Fed Chair Ben Bernanke strongly hinted at a second round of quantitative easing (QE2) in 2010,
US Treasury yields fell, the US dollar weakened, and equities rallied sharply in the weeks that followed. Mario Draghi used the Summit to prepare the market for the coming dovish policy. In 2022 Jerome Powell explicitly stated that bringing inflation down would require maintaining restrictive policy for some time and would cause “some pain” to households and businesses.Powell's 2024 speech (before rate cuts later that year) signalled growing concern about labour-market weakness and was interpreted as opening the door to easing.
US Treasury yields fell, the US dollar weakened, and equities rallied sharply in the weeks that followed. Mario Draghi used the Summit to prepare the market for the coming dovish policy. In 2022 Jerome Powell explicitly stated that bringing inflation down would require maintaining restrictive policy for some time and would cause “some pain” to households and businesses.Powell's 2024 speech (before rate cuts later that year) signalled growing concern about labour-market weakness and was interpreted as opening the door to easing.
U.S. equities were led almost entirely by technology. The S&P 500 rose 0.7% to 7,730.99, the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.4%, and the Dow added 0.2% to 53,569.44. Nvidia jumped 8.7%, adding USD 442 billion in market value after guiding for around 70% revenue growth in FY2028. Salesforce surged 22.6% on a stronger outlook and a deeper Anthropic partnership, while CrowdStrike gained 20% after strong earnings. Every other sector declined, and the equal-weight S&P 500 fell 0.3%. After hours, Gap rose 11% after raising its earnings outlook, while Marvell Technology fell more than 7% despite a modest beat.
Europe was weaker on Thursday, with the Stoxx 600 down 0.7% to 651.85, its largest one-day decline since 23 July. French political uncertainty weighed on sentiment, and the CAC 40 was the weakest major index ahead of a key debate. BNP Paribas fell 4.8%, Société Générale lost more than 4%, and Eiffage dropped 7.4%. Pernod Ricard also weighed on consumer staples after warning that growth would be at the lower end of expectations. The DAX bucked the trend, rising 0.3% to 26,367.24, helped by SAP’s 5.5% gain on Nvidia tailwinds.
Commerzbank may be in focus today as representatives of UniCredit and the German Finance Ministry meet for the first time in this unusual takeover story. UniCredit now holds nearly 50% of Commerzbank shares.
Yields are relatively stable into the end of the week, with the U.S. 10-year at 4.68%. The USD Index is at 99.10, EUR/USD is just below 1.1650, GBP/USD is at 1.3590 and USD/JPY remains uncomfortable around 159.50. Tokyo inflation came in near the Bank of Japan’s target, lifting the probability of a 18 September hike to almost 70%.
Gold and silver are still meandering around the 4,600 and 69 areas, currently at 4,580 and 68.90. Bitcoin is struggling with the 80,000 level.
In the Middle East, mediators have renewed their push to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran has agreed to draw up a list of conditions to restore normal traffic after a Qatari emissary pressed Iran to respect freedom of navigation.
The key drivers today and over the next few days are Kevin Warsh’s speech, any progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and month-end positioning adjustments. Together, they are likely to decide whether sentiment holds or breaks.
The overall question remains whether inflation can be controlled while keeping credit cheap enough to maintain growth.
Friday, 28 August 2026
Macro: KOF indicator, euro-area economic sentiment and final consumer confidence, France CPI.
Central banks / speakers: Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium continues; Kevin Warsh speaks at 16:00 CET.
Monday, 31 August 2026
Macro: Light scheduled calendar; focus on month-end flows and positioning after Jackson Hole.
Tuesday, 1 September 2026
Macro: Euro-area flash HICP inflation and unemployment; final manufacturing PMIs for the euro area, Germany and the UK; U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS job openings.
Central banks / speakers: RBA rate decision.
Corporate earnings: Broadcom expected.
Wednesday, 2 September 2026
Macro: Euro-area building permits; U.S. ADP employment report.
Central banks / speakers: Bank of Canada rate decision.
Thursday, 3 September 2026
Macro: Final services and composite PMIs for the euro area and Germany; euro-area PPI; U.S. initial jobless claims and trade balance; U.S. ISM Services PMI.
Macro: Euro-area retail sales; U.S. nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate and average hourly