Technical Update - US Indices: Pay attention to what the longer term charts tell you.
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Pay attention to the longer term charts.
When the short term charts are quite volatile and seem to be without direction it is always a good idea to take a look at the bigger picture. Looking at the medium to longer term chart such as weekly and monthly time periods give us an idea .
Short term. The broad based S&P 500 index is testing the rising trend line. Earlier this week buyers managed to move the Index back above the rising trend line paving the way for a minor rebound following last week’s sell-off.
However, that rebound doesn’t seem to last for long with sellers taking back control yesterday after positive opening to the session. S&P 500 to closed just a few points above the trend line.
Next couple of days can be crucial on the short term. A close below the rising trend line is likely to lead to a test of support at around 4,495.
However, as mentioned in the beginning pay attention to the medium/longer term charts. In the weekly time period last week S&P 500 formed a Bearish Engulfing top and reversal pattern.
There is divergence on both RSI and MACD i.e. Index price went up but RSI and MACD values have been dropping in other words a warning of the uptrend being weak and possibly near an end. A close below 4,495 will confirm and possibly fuel a bearish trend.
A close above 4,750 will put the bearish picture on hold with the potential to test previous highs.
With lower Highs and lower Lows is Nasdaq 100 technically in a down trend on the short term Daily time period. It is much more pronounced on the broader Nasdaq Composite Index supporting the picture that it is mainly the big caps holding on.
On the weekly time period Nasdaq has formed both a Bearish Engulfing AND a Doji Evening star pattern. (The latter pattern is not text book perfect however, since the Doji star body should be above the body of the following bearish candle. However, the body of last weeks bear candle engulfs the Doji i.e. a bear pattern)
Similar to S&P 500 Nasdaq 100 and Composite (further below) both showing bearish divergence on RSI and MACD.
For Nasdaq 100 to reverse the bearish scenario a close above 16,608 is needed.
Dow Jones Industrial seems to be forming a rising wedge like pattern. A daily close below 35,639 will confirm a bearish break out with support at around 34,700 and 34,000.
Divergence on MACD but not on RSI. However, RSI values have broken below the rising trend line and with divergence on MACD, and MACD line below the Signal line it indicates to a bearish move on the Index. However, a daily close above 36,514 could lead to a test of previous highs.
RSI Divergence and trend sentiment explained: The RSI overbought/oversold indications are 70 and 30 respectively. But RSI can be used for much more than this.
When an indicator such as RSI is displaying lower peaks while the underlying price is still making new highs. It is a sign of imbalance in the market, the strength of the trend is weakening. It could be an indication of the ending of a trend. However, imbalances in financial markets can go on for quite some time. To cancel Divergence out RSI must either 1. Make a new high simultaneously with the price or 2. Close below 40 threshold.
Same can be observed in bear market just here market makes a new low but Indicator doesn’t.
When the RSI crosses 60 and is moving in the 40-80 range it can be considered to indicate a bullish trend. When RSI crosses below 40 and is moving in the 20-60 range it can be considered to indicate a bearish trend.
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