Technical Update - AEX25 holding key support. CAC40 crawling back above. BEL20 has broken below with a bang . Where to next?
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
AEX25 staying above its key support and could rebound. CAC40 closed Friday below, buyers lifting it back above but can it hold? BEL20 broke below its support confirming downtrend.
AEX 25 Index is close to testing the June low at 632. The support at 632 is strong and a bounce is likely to be seen. Divergence on RSI on both daily and weekly supports the rebound scenario. However, the trend is down and a close below could take the AEX Index to around 600 support.
BEL20 closed well below key support at 3,506 last week. There is no divergence on RSI Making new lows indicating lower levels on the Index is likely. Next key support is at around 3,235 close to the 0.618 retracement at 3,173. To reverse the down trend a close above 3,740.
CAC40 closed Friday a few points below key support at 5,786 testing March lows at 5,756. This morning buyers are trying to lift it back above. If CAC40 closes above 5,786 we could see further upside to towards 6.000.
However, the selling pressure could quickly resume sending CAC 40 lower. If closing below 5,755 there Is not support until around 5,392.
Latest Market Insights
Outrageous Predictions 2023: The War Economy
- The constantly growing global need for energy drives the world's richest to huddle up and launch a R&D project in a size the world hasn't seen since the Manhattan Project gave the US the first atomic bomb.
French President Macron resignsThe political stalemate in France and the rise of Marie Le Pen following the 2022 elections corners President Macron, forcing him to give up on politics and resign from his position. At least for now.
Gold rockets to USD 3,000 as central banks fail on inflation mandateAs markets and central banks realise that the idea that inflation is transitory is wrong, and that prices will remain higher for longer, gold is sent through the roof, hitting a price tag of USD 3,000
EU Army forces EU down path to full unionWith continued challenges in the region and a US military that isn't aggressively enacting its former role as global policeman, the European Union agrees to create its own armed forces, bringing the whole region closer.
A country agrees to ban all meat production by 2030In an effort to become one of the global leaders on the path to net-zero emissions, one country decides to not only put a heavy tax on meat, but to ban domestic production entirely.
UK holds UnBrexit referendumFollowing a recession and domestic pressure, the United Kingdom is thrown into political turmoil that will end with a vote to wind back Brexit.
Widespread price controls are introduced to cap official inflationHistory tells us that with the war economy comes rationing and price controls. And this time is no different, as policymakers introduce strict price controls that lead to a range of unintended consequences.
OPEC+ & Chindia walk out of the IMF, agree to trade with new reserve assetSanctions against Russia have caused widespread turmoil due to US Dollar moves in countries across the globe that don't consider the US an ally. To relieve themselves from this, they leave the IMF and create a new reserve asset.
USDJPY fixed to the USD at 200 as Japan overhauls financial systemFollowing the challenges that faced the Japanese Yen in 2022, the Bank of Japan attempts to keep the currency from sliding. Unsuccessful on the long-term, Japan will launch a reset of its entire financial system.
Tax haven ban kills private equityWith the war economy comes an increased focus on national interests and sovereign nations' ability to assert themselves. In that regard, the OECD countries turn their attention on tax havens and pull the big guns out, banning them altogether.